The election is a referendum on the referendum on EU membership. If you want one vote Tory, if you don't vote for any of the others who can't and won't offer you a referendum.
The only people left out there are those who want out but are too scared to make their case in a 2017 referendum
This "too scared" thing is getting annoying. Why shouldn't people pick their fights (as Cameron is blatantly doing in the debates debate)? Look at the Indy ref and explain what guarantee there is that in 2017 Cameron won't orchestrate a tri party Vow of free owls for everyone in perpetuity provided the result is In, if he feels things aren't going his way?
If the 'too scared' thing is annoying, vote conservative and start making the case for out. It's the closest way to us leaving the eu, which I want.
I mean, it's annoying in the abstract as an argumentative technique. I fully (almost) intend to vote conservative because I'm a lot more fussed about other issues than about the EU. I do not expect Cameron to play a straight and honourable game over 2017, though.
What are these 'other issues' that aren't affected by the EU?
Tory election campaign in meltdown, photo of Osborne with what looks like his Cameron sticking out and NHS still in crisis - Front Page Headline Screamer
Quite an important Yougov tonight. If the Tories are to make progress then they need a change of narrative. A consistent lead, even a small one, is a possible change. My guess is that it will be Labour by 1.
The election is a referendum on the referendum on EU membership. If you want one vote Tory, if you don't vote for any of the others who can't and won't offer you a referendum.
The only people left out there are those who want out but are too scared to make their case in a 2017 referendum
This "too scared" thing is getting annoying. Why shouldn't people pick their fights (as Cameron is blatantly doing in the debates debate)? Look at the Indy ref and explain what guarantee there is that in 2017 Cameron won't orchestrate a tri party Vow of free owls for everyone in perpetuity provided the result is In, if he feels things aren't going his way?
If the 'too scared' thing is annoying, vote conservative and start making the case for out. It's the closest way to us leaving the eu, which I want.
I mean, it's annoying in the abstract as an argumentative technique. I fully (almost) intend to vote conservative because I'm a lot more fussed about other issues than about the EU. I do not expect Cameron to play a straight and honourable game over 2017, though.
What are these 'other issues' that aren't affected by the EU?
98% of the UK budget Income and wealth taxes Education Law and order Defence The NHS
Tory election campaign in meltdown, photo of Osborne with what looks like his Cameron sticking out and NHS still in crisis - Front Page Headline Screamer
*** Caveat it's the Mirror
Ah the Mirror. Notable silence from the people who put the NotW out of business, funny that.
The election is a referendum on the referendum on EU membership. If you want one vote Tory, if you don't vote for any of the others who can't and won't offer you a referendum.
The only people left out there are those who want out but are too scared to make their case in a 2017 referendum
This "too scared" thing is getting annoying. Why shouldn't people pick their fights (as Cameron is blatantly doing in the debates debate)? Look at the Indy ref and explain what guarantee there is that in 2017 Cameron won't orchestrate a tri party Vow of free owls for everyone in perpetuity provided the result is In, if he feels things aren't going his way?
If the 'too scared' thing is annoying, vote conservative and start making the case for out. It's the closest way to us leaving the eu, which I want.
I mean, it's annoying in the abstract as an argumentative technique. I fully (almost) intend to vote conservative because I'm a lot more fussed about other issues than about the EU. I do not expect Cameron to play a straight and honourable game over 2017, though.
What are these 'other issues' that aren't affected by the EU?
The election is a referendum on the referendum on EU membership. If you want one vote Tory, if you don't vote for any of the others who can't and won't offer you a referendum.
The only people left out there are those who want out but are too scared to make their case in a 2017 referendum
This "too scared" thing is getting annoying. Why shouldn't people pick their fights (as Cameron is blatantly doing in the debates debate)? Look at the Indy ref and explain what guarantee there is that in 2017 Cameron won't orchestrate a tri party Vow of free owls for everyone in perpetuity provided the result is In, if he feels things aren't going his way?
If the 'too scared' thing is annoying, vote conservative and start making the case for out. It's the closest way to us leaving the eu, which I want.
I mean, it's annoying in the abstract as an argumentative technique. I fully (almost) intend to vote conservative because I'm a lot more fussed about other issues than about the EU. I do not expect Cameron to play a straight and honourable game over 2017, though.
What are these 'other issues' that aren't affected by the EU?
The election is a referendum on the referendum on EU membership. If you want one vote Tory, if you don't vote for any of the others who can't and won't offer you a referendum.
The only people left out there are those who want out but are too scared to make their case in a 2017 referendum
This "too scared" thing is getting annoying. Why shouldn't people pick their fights (as Cameron is blatantly doing in the debates debate)? Look at the Indy ref and explain what guarantee there is that in 2017 Cameron won't orchestrate a tri party Vow of free owls for everyone in perpetuity provided the result is In, if he feels things aren't going his way?
If the 'too scared' thing is annoying, vote conservative and start making the case for out. It's the closest way to us leaving the eu, which I want.
I mean, it's annoying in the abstract as an argumentative technique. I fully (almost) intend to vote conservative because I'm a lot more fussed about other issues than about the EU. I do not expect Cameron to play a straight and honourable game over 2017, though.
I don't know if this group contains you, but I was making a point there against people who argue that we need to time an eu referendum better for their cause. We need one ASAP whatever the games both sides might play
Channel 4 News is covering the awful murder by a convicted murderer that was freely let in the UK under the free movement of labour system supported by Ed and Dave. And neither of them want to do anything about other convicted murderers being able to come here from the EU.
That one eye of yours.. Of course you don't mention the convicted murderers who are Brits who are allowed free movement. I doubt you even believe in the rehabilitation of offenders. For you its anti EU soundbite politics and a good bashing of the EU is the bonus.
Strangely I don't think British convicted murderers being free to go to other countries makes up for foreign convicted murderers being free to come here. It's not a soundbite, it's a legitimate criticism of an idiotic policy.
Unless you plan to require all visitors to the UK to have visas and criminal record checks, then convicted criminals can come and go.
Governments have rightly decided that the economic damage from limiting trade and travel is greater than the risk of British citizens being killed.
Is like this, we could save 1,000 lives a year by cutting the speed limit on British roads to 20 miles per hour. But it would cost an awful lot of money. We price lives all the time, whether in transport policy or the NHS; why should one firm of violent premature death be priced differently to another?
Except.. What's gone wrong that can be blamed on the huge top down reorganisation that's said to have happened? Other than the slightly longer waiting times for people that shouldn't have gone to a&e in the first place I haven't heard a lot about terrible NHS outcomes in recent times.
Off the top of my head, the delay between requesting a GP appointment and seeing a GP has now exceeded three weeks and that length is a cause for concern. This is the cause of the upswing in A&E attendance, as sick people who can't get to a GP attend the A&E instead. I don't know what the cure to this problem is, and I don't know which of the parties have the solution. But it is a genuine problem.
The solution is to undo Labour's GP contracts disaster. But nobody appears to be prepared to grasp that nettle.
There are many reasons why the old contract needed replacing. The demands of working out of hours became unsustainable. The average GP took a pay cut in order to opt out of out of hours cover. Even with the current contract there is a crisis of GP recruitment with many posts unfilled.
Getting graduates to want to work in General Practice is much more than about money, it is having a sustainable work-life balance.
Oh yes, I fully agree that the contracts needed reforming. However the consequences of what was actually done have been counterproductive and harmful. The subject needs to be re-visited.
There are limits to my sympathy, though, for those GPs who are working fewer hours for more money than the Prime Minister.
Tory election campaign in meltdown, photo of Osborne with what looks like his Cameron sticking out and NHS still in crisis - Front Page Headline Screamer
4 polls: Con lead by one 2 polls: Tie 1 poll: Lab lead by one
That's pretty decent evidence that the true position may well now be at least a tie - which would be an improvement for Con compared to the Lab lead of approx 1.25% in the first three weeks of Jan.
And it's clear which direction the momentum is in.
Except.. What's gone wrong that can be blamed on the huge top down reorganisation that's said to have happened? Other than the slightly longer waiting times for people that shouldn't have gone to a&e in the first place I haven't heard a lot about terrible NHS outcomes in recent times.
Off the top of my head, the delay between requesting a GP appointment and seeing a GP has now exceeded three weeks and that length is a cause for concern. This is the cause of the upswing in A&E attendance, as sick people who can't get to a GP attend the A&E instead. I don't know what the cure to this problem is, and I don't know which of the parties have the solution. But it is a genuine problem.
The solution is to undo Labour's GP contracts disaster. But nobody appears to be prepared to grasp that nettle.
There are many reasons why the old contract needed replacing. The demands of working out of hours became unsustainable. The average GP took a pay cut in order to opt out of out of hours cover. Even with the current contract there is a crisis of GP recruitment with many posts unfilled.
Getting graduates to want to work in General Practice is much more than about money, it is having a sustainable work-life balance.
Oh yes, I fully agree that the contracts needed reforming. However the consequences of what was actually done have been counterproductive and harmful. The subject needs to be re-visited.
There are limits to my sympathy, though, for those GPs who are working fewer hours for more money than the Prime Minister.
If it is money for old rope, why is it impossible to fill training posts or many senior posts?
It is not just about money, it is about being treated with respect. At the moment GPs get blamed for everything so they vote with their feet by leaving.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·1 min1 minute ago The Tories long hoped that January would be "crossover" month. They're ahead again in tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: Con 34%, Lab 33%.
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.
Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.
George Eaton@georgeeaton·1 min1 minute ago The Tories long hoped that January would be "crossover" month. They're ahead again in tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: Con 34%, Lab 33%.
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.
Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Is that the "no Tory poll leads before the GE" hill or another one?
As the tory/kipper baiting on pb has shown, Neil you are going the wrong way to recruiting this poor sad red to your green colours... don't fall in to the TPD trap!
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Is that the "no Tory poll leads before the GE" hill or another one?
Another one, the "we all get excited when Tory go in front" and then all post about something else when they revert to Labour leads...hill. It's not like it's the first time, is it.
Tories doing worse than 2010, Labour worse than 1992, the LDs worse than David Steel, the trend remains clear, and while Cameron may remain PM, on present trends it would probably have to be with the backing of both the LDs and DUP, maybe even UKIP too, so how long that would last is anyone's guess!
Milburn sticking the boot into Ed shortly after Mandelson. Will a senior Blairite come out and say what they really think which is that a Miliband government will be a disaster for Britain?
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.
Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.
Behind the bravado, the tears of a clown.
To think only last month, one of the PB Reds said
"Any PB Tories a tiny bit worried [about the polling]"
Tories doing worse than 2010, Labour worse than 1992, the LDs worse than David Steel, the trend remains clear, and while Cameron may remain PM, on present trends it would probably have to be with the backing of both the LDs and DUP, maybe even UKIP too, so how long that would last is anyone's guess!
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.
Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.
Total fantasy and even dare I say - Poppy cock - have a look in the mirror... [not the hacking rag]
EICIPM, Basil, Mr. Wisemann's no more leads than in 2014, NPxMP no real change for months & Reds still slightly ahead.... to name but a few regular themes.
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.
Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.
Behind the bravado, the tears of a clown.
To think only last month, one of the PB Reds said
"Any PB Tories a tiny bit worried [about the polling]"
Milburn sticking the boot into Ed shortly after Mandelson. Will a senior Blairite come out and say what they really think which is that a Miliband government will be a disaster for Britain?
Milburn now as well as Mandelson? What is Miliband doing so right? All he needs now is for John Hutton to say he'd be a f*cking disaster.
I'd have suggested Stephen Byers or Patricia Hewitt but does anyone actually remember either of them?
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.
Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.
Behind the bravado, the tears of a clown.
To think only last month, one of the PB Reds said
"Any PB Tories a tiny bit worried [about the polling]"
and you replied with such elan.
Couldn't have been sober then!
Mr Owls said: I am sure ICM used to be regarded as the Gold Standard.
With less than 20 weeks to GE2015. ICM has LAB 3% ahead and the Tories going backward.
A 1% Con lead equates to a 3% swing which means just 38 Lab gains from Con on a uniform swing. Most of those gains could be wiped out by losses to the SNP.
Milburn sticking the boot into Ed shortly after Mandelson. Will a senior Blairite come out and say what they really think which is that a Miliband government will be a disaster for Britain?
Milburn now as well as Mandelson? What is Miliband doing so right? All he needs now is for John Hutton to say he'd be a f*cking disaster.
I'd have suggested Stephen Byers or Patricia Hewitt but does anyone actually remember either of them?
To be fair to John Hutton, he was right when he said Brown would be a fecking disaster as PM.
The moment Roger said Ed had had a storming start to the New Year by attacking Dave on the NHS and debates, we all knew what was going to happen.
Andy Burnham not terribly convincing on reversing NHS outsourcing on Newsnight. They are going to need a plan B on that blank sheet of paper.
Interesting that Burnham is on now about the NHS, Labour must be worried, Its the only thing they have to talk about.. will it be so for the next hundred days?>
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.
Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.
Total fantasy and even dare I say - Poppy cock
But entertaining fantasy and poppy cock. It's what separates compouter2 from the merely blindly partisan.
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.
Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.
Polls good for labour.... lots of goalpostastic Basilaceous merriment. Polls bad for labour......
Cheer up. I reckon the is just a multiple Amjadgasm. Normal service will be resumed shortly.
A 1% Con lead equates to a 3% swing which means just 38 Lab gains from Con on a uniform swing. Most of those gains could be wiped out by losses to the SNP.
Now try to figure out where Labour will be on polling day...
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.
Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.
Total fantasy and even dare I say - Poppy cock
But entertaining fantasy and poppy cock. It's what separates compouter2 from the merely blindly partisan.
That's more like it... you'll make him a convert yet.
Interesting that Burnham is on now about the NHS, Labour must be worried, Its the only thing they have to talk about.. will it be so for the next hundred days?>
Last year I told people to keep an eye out for the moment that the Labour Party finally acknowledged that it was on course to lose the 2015 general election. It’s always very easy to spot. It’s the point at which Labour strategists say: “OK, none of this is working. We need to get back on to health”.
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.
Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.
Polls good for labour.... lots of goalpostastic Basilaceous merriment. Polls bad for labour......
Cheer up. I reckon the is just a multiple Amjadgasm. Normal service will be resumed shortly.
Interesting that Burnham is on now about the NHS, Labour must be worried, Its the only thing they have to talk about.. will it be so for the next hundred days?>
Last year I told people to keep an eye out for the moment that the Labour Party finally acknowledged that it was on course to lose the 2015 general election. It’s always very easy to spot. It’s the point at which Labour strategists say: “OK, none of this is working. We need to get back on to health”.
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.
Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.
Behind the bravado, the tears of a clown.
To think only last month, one of the PB Reds said
"Any PB Tories a tiny bit worried [about the polling]"
and you replied with such elan.
Couldn't have been sober then!
Mr Owls said: I am sure ICM used to be regarded as the Gold Standard.
With less than 20 weeks to GE2015. ICM has LAB 3% ahead and the Tories going backward.
Any PB Tories a tiny bit worried.
To which you replied
"Nope, next"
Two words that transformedthe entire psephological landscape. Truly a legend in his own lunchtime.
Ian Birrell@ianbirrell·4 mins4 minutes ago Burnham says coalition 'putting NHS up for sale' when his govt gave twice as much NHS care to private providers. Such a hypocrite #newsnight
BBC Newsnight@BBCNewsnight·54 secs55 seconds ago .@andyburnhammp refuses to say whether a Labour gov't would increase or decrease NHS spending on private outsourcing of care #newsnight
A 1% Con lead equates to a 3% swing which means just 38 Lab gains from Con on a uniform swing. Most of those gains could be wiped out by losses to the SNP.
Come on Andy, you have a reputation on here as a numbers man. 38 seats lost by the Tories to Labour equates to a double whammy movement of 76 seats and does NOT equate GE outcome-wise to Labour losing a similar number to the SNP.
A 1% Con lead equates to a 3% swing which means just 38 Lab gains from Con on a uniform swing. Most of those gains could be wiped out by losses to the SNP.
Come on Andy, you have a reputation on here as a numbers man. 38 seats lost by the Tories to Labour equates to a double whammy movement of 76 seats and does NOT equate GE outcome-wise to Labour losing a similar number to the SNP.
Andy is correct.
Remember this also about FPTP.
Seats disappear at least twice as fast as votes...
Computer2NPMikeL Labour needs to be building a huge lead in Wales if it is heading for a UK majority, Wales has never voted anything but Labour unlike Scotland. However, the fact the Tories are also going backwards only reinforces the trend for a hung parliament again
A 1% Con lead equates to a 3% swing which means just 38 Lab gains from Con on a uniform swing. Most of those gains could be wiped out by losses to the SNP.
Come on Andy, you have a reputation on here as a numbers man. 38 seats lost by the Tories to Labour equates to a double whammy movement of 76 seats and does NOT equate GE outcome-wise to Labour losing a similar number to the SNP.
I can see the PB Hodges have marched back to the top of the hill.
Whilst the PBreds are rather thin on the ground.... amazing how both happen at similar times.
Polls good for PB Hodges....lots of talk about polls.Polls good for Labour....talk about the shape of chicken eggs through history, colour of snowflakes on Mars, the cost of a Mars bar....shh don't mention the polls, they don't matter.
Behind the bravado, the tears of a clown.
To think only last month, one of the PB Reds said
"Any PB Tories a tiny bit worried [about the polling]"
and you replied with such elan.
Couldn't have been sober then!
Mr Owls said: I am sure ICM used to be regarded as the Gold Standard.
With less than 20 weeks to GE2015. ICM has LAB 3% ahead and the Tories going backward.
Any PB Tories a tiny bit worried.
To which you replied
"Nope, next"
Two words that transformedthe entire psephological landscape. Truly a legend in his own lunchtime.
I nearly did a one word thread header.
Someone at the Guardian had done a piece saying "Is David Cameron an electoral liability for the Tories"
Interesting that Burnham is on now about the NHS, Labour must be worried, Its the only thing they have to talk about.. will it be so for the next hundred days?
I was thinking just that this morning whilst listening to the charismatic and witty Ed Miliband, other than the NHS (and mostly because the public are ill informed) Labour have nothing else to talk about.
I'm coming round to the view that Labour's strategy throughout this parliament was to say nothing controversial, and not go into any detail, on the expectation that the coalition would inevitably break-up and/or everything would go horribly wrong. Labour expected the government to do the job of getting Labour elected for them.
But it hasn't worked out for Labour. The coalition has lasted against expectation, the economy is doing quite well and the EU/Eurozone is a bit of a mess by comparison, crime is down, we have record student numbers despite the fees, employment is bafflingly high, we've not gotten into any stupid diplomatic or foreign policy mess, the Tories have been surprisingly united, and even the Lib Dems are sticking with Clegg to the bitter end.
So things haven't gone badly enough to get Labour elected by default as they expected, and Labour is now left having to argue the case for their election when most of what they predicted has not happened, and the things they opposed have worked, and with only the flimsiest of policies to offer.
Labour may yet win, due to the electoral system, but they sure as hell do not deserve to, and they are not fit or ready for office.
Will we see another Tory lead with You Gov tomorrow, probably not ? Will the Tories form the next government, probably not ? Will the SNP get more than 15 seats, probably not ? Will the Greens win more than one seat, probably not? Will it be an interesting election, yes it will be.
Will we see another Tory lead with You Gov tomorrow, probably not ? Will the Tories form the next government, probably not ? Will the SNP get more than 15 seats, probably not ? Will the Greens win more than one seat, probably not? Will it be an interesting election, yes it will be.
I'd be very happy to enter into a charity bet with you at evens that the SNP will get more than 15 seats, stake size at your choice.
Comments
*** Caveat it's the Mirror
But we shall see.
Income and wealth taxes
Education
Law and order
Defence
The NHS
Governments have rightly decided that the economic damage from limiting trade and travel is greater than the risk of British citizens being killed.
Is like this, we could save 1,000 lives a year by cutting the speed limit on British roads to 20 miles per hour. But it would cost an awful lot of money. We price lives all the time, whether in transport policy or the NHS; why should one firm of violent premature death be priced differently to another?
There are limits to my sympathy, though, for those GPs who are working fewer hours for more money than the Prime Minister.
Tories still ahead by one: CON 34%, LAB 33%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 7%
Thumbs down for the Sporting Life tipsters saying back Sheff Utd to get to Wembley.. at 13/2 ... it is value mind you!
Seriously though, it's better than being behind, even if functionally the outcome wouldn't change on such numbers, so better than nothing.
(Note this is sarcasm, and not a prediction)
OK, not spectacular - but last 7 polls:
4 polls: Con lead by one
2 polls: Tie
1 poll: Lab lead by one
That's pretty decent evidence that the true position may well now be at least a tie - which would be an improvement for Con compared to the Lab lead of approx 1.25% in the first three weeks of Jan.
And it's clear which direction the momentum is in.
It is not just about money, it is about being treated with respect. At the moment GPs get blamed for everything so they vote with their feet by leaving.
Over 3 months to go, and a budget …
Or are they all outliers?
George Eaton@georgeeaton·1 min1 minute ago
The Tories long hoped that January would be "crossover" month. They're ahead again in tonight's YouGov/Sun poll: Con 34%, Lab 33%.
The moment Roger said Ed had had a storming start to the New Year by attacking Dave on the NHS and debates, we all knew what was going to happen.
"Any PB Tories a tiny bit worried [about the polling]"
and you replied with such elan.
It's OK to panic now guys.
EICIPM, Basil, Mr. Wisemann's no more leads than in 2014, NPxMP no real change for months & Reds still slightly ahead.... to name but a few regular themes.
I'd have suggested Stephen Byers or Patricia Hewitt but does anyone actually remember either of them?
'Another one, the "we all get excited when Tory go in front"
Just suck it up before you go walkies again.
With less than 20 weeks to GE2015. ICM has LAB 3% ahead and the Tories going backward.
Any PB Tories a tiny bit worried.
To which you replied
"Nope, next"
Rod C certainly has bragging rights.
Interesting that Burnham is on now about the NHS, Labour must be worried, Its the only thing they have to talk about.. will it be so for the next hundred days?>
Cheer up. I reckon the is just a multiple Amjadgasm. Normal service will be resumed shortly.
Fewer seats than 2010, perhaps?
The Tory 1-point lead is pretty well-documented now. But another 6 or so needed to get back to square 1...
Con -3
Lab +1
So a 2% swing. Not great for Ed, is it?
Apparently Burnham had a bit of a meltdown on Newsnight. Only 99 days to go...
Apparently Burnham had a bit of a meltdown on Newsnight. Only 99 days to go...
Is there an echo in here?
Ian Birrell@ianbirrell·4 mins4 minutes ago
Burnham says coalition 'putting NHS up for sale' when his govt gave twice as much NHS care to private providers. Such a hypocrite #newsnight
BBC Newsnight@BBCNewsnight·54 secs55 seconds ago
.@andyburnhammp refuses to say whether a Labour gov't would increase or decrease NHS spending on private outsourcing of care #newsnight
38 seats lost by the Tories to Labour equates to a double whammy movement of 76 seats and does NOT equate GE outcome-wise to Labour losing a similar number to the SNP.
audreyanne The trend is clear, we are heading for a hung parliament with all the main parties squeezed by the Greens, UKIP and SNP
Remember this also about FPTP.
Seats disappear at least twice as fast as votes...
Someone at the Guardian had done a piece saying "Is David Cameron an electoral liability for the Tories"
I was going to reply with a simple "No"
I'm coming round to the view that Labour's strategy throughout this parliament was to say nothing controversial, and not go into any detail, on the expectation that the coalition would inevitably break-up and/or everything would go horribly wrong. Labour expected the government to do the job of getting Labour elected for them.
But it hasn't worked out for Labour. The coalition has lasted against expectation, the economy is doing quite well and the EU/Eurozone is a bit of a mess by comparison, crime is down, we have record student numbers despite the fees, employment is bafflingly high, we've not gotten into any stupid diplomatic or foreign policy mess, the Tories have been surprisingly united, and even the Lib Dems are sticking with Clegg to the bitter end.
So things haven't gone badly enough to get Labour elected by default as they expected, and Labour is now left having to argue the case for their election when most of what they predicted has not happened, and the things they opposed have worked, and with only the flimsiest of policies to offer.
Labour may yet win, due to the electoral system, but they sure as hell do not deserve to, and they are not fit or ready for office.
Will the Tories form the next government, probably not ?
Will the SNP get more than 15 seats, probably not ?
Will the Greens win more than one seat, probably not?
Will it be an interesting election, yes it will be.