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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And for the evening with 100 days to go – a Marf cartoon
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And for the evening with 100 days to go – a Marf cartoon
POliticalbetting's Marf on Cameron & Miliband pic.twitter.com/ubW5s0VSyb
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Annoyingly I missed the 8/1 on under 20% saved deposits (which was fantastic value), but before jumping on the 5/2 I did a quick crude calculation. Given the greengasm is very youth orientated and facebooky, I just looked at the constituency data for 18-30 voters on the electoral register in 2012 (573 England and wales seats only - that's all I have the age-breakdown data for)
The greens would save their deposits in the following constituencies;
If <10% 18-30's voters vote green = 0 deposits saved.
over 10% = 1 (Sheffield Central)
over 12.5% = 12
15% = 40
17.5% = 79
20% = 123 (21.3% of 573 constituencies)
22.5% = 197
25% = 297
27.5% = 373
30% = 454 (78.7% of 573 constituencies)
Given the impact of individual voter registration on the 18-30's, the historically low turnout amongst this age group (was 2010 an exception?), the large number of seats where the greens are standing and the clumpage of green activists around the cities/university seats, I think the 5/2 is a stonking bet. I'd have it at 4/6 personally.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/27/ed-miliband-unity-economic-inequality-labour
FPT (in response to RNabavi):-
Maybe. I just wonder whether Milliband is as offputting as all that.
Even if they think he's geeky and a bit odd, they might think that he's going to help with fuel bills and he's not obviously a heartless rich chappie. Or they might just vote Labour anyway for other reasons.
Plenty of people voted for Brown and he struck me as even odder and geekier than Milliband.
I may be wholly wrong on this but I could imagine - one-to-one - having a conversation with Ed and being pleasantly surprised in a way that I cannot with Cameron. Possibly I've seen too many types like Cameron in the City.
I just wonder whethr the Ed is odd and not Prime Ministerial meme is overdone. Thatcher was viewed in the same way, thought from a different perspective. Even Heath who was about as far from being a human being as a human can be won an election
"I may be wholly wrong on this but I could imagine - one-to-one - having a conversation with Ed and being pleasantly surprised in a way that I cannot with Cameron."
You are not wrong. I have (briefly) conversed with Ed. He can very approachable. But very definitely not marshmallow soft.
Oh, and nice one Marf (number two).
Of course, no-one really knows how voters will react - I'm certainly arranging my affairs on the assumption that there is a substantial risk that they will jump into the void. However, my point was that you were looking at events to change the polling, and it doesn't necessarily require events.
We need an English parliament ASAP.
On the other hand, he was in a coffee shop at the same time as my wife, who was blissfully unaware of his presence.
pbr2013 said:
Re Putin and all that. While nobody who has read any Vasily Grossman can for a moment doubt the role of the Red Army in the destruction of the Nazi murder machine, nevertheless a degree of humility may also be appropriate on such a solemn occasion. I have in mind the Molotov/Ribbentoff pact and the Red Army's hesitation during the Warsaw Rising.
---------------------------------------------
Both the Molotov/Ribbentrop pact in 1939 and the Red Army halt before Warsaw in 1944 was on the direct command of Stalin. The Red Army didn't just halt; they sat on their bums and watched as the Polish military and partisans were destroyed by the Waffen SS and Gestapo execution squads piece by piece.
But then, those same Polish forces also sat on their bums in 1943 and did nothing at all to help the Jews who were rising from the Warsaw Ghetto.
Eastern European history is thick with betrayal.
How true that is.
I put Cameron in that europhile company, and if anyone expects anything from his proposed negotiations with Brussels, they've got a big disappointment coming to them.
Read more: http://www.theweek.co.uk/world-news/flight-mh370/57641/mh370-details-of-who-was-on-missing-plane-are-being-withheld-says#ixzz3Q3PdbYuc
This is a new one on me. How serious is this?
Amongst the younger generation, some do so because their middle-class London-centric peer group take it as the default status quo, so don't question it or even discuss it. Amongst the leaders, Cameron/Osborne, their donors and friends consistently tell them it's in our (their) financial interest to remain in the single market.
They believe them.
Are you a lady yourself?
I feel sure that when you want to pop off to some Euro destination ..say France.. and they take a dislike to the cut of your jib because of something in your past, you will happily accede to their refusal, or would you slag them off?.
Lib Dem Tessa Munt quits as parliamentary aide to Business Secretary Vince Cable after voting against government on fracking
- BBC
Breaking news: Grantham councillors defect to UKIP from the Conservative Party - Grantham Journal: http://www.granthamjournal.co.uk/news/politics/politics-news/breaking-news-grantham-councillors-defect-to-ukip-from-the-conservative-party-1-6545842#.VMfvK0VbcP4.twitter …
Dave forcing old tories to leave the party.
2001 26.4%
2005 30.2%
2010 38.5%
Majority 2,524
You're a brave man to say it will go more safely Labour.
(Imho)
They'd better bloody gain Solihull !
Via LL, wanted respondents aged 18-44 in my constituency (NE Cambs).
Prompted for UKIP, then prompted for my constituency.
Asked how I rated Cameron as PM, then asked to compare with Milliband.
Asked if any party had been in touch.
Asked what GE result I wanted and given choice of con maj, con coalition, lab maj, lab coalition.
Asked occupation and then name.
Anyone know who it is for?
The key thing in many yellow defences is level of organisation. The Tories are generally weaker.
That said, my boss is a vocal doppleganger for Ed M, so he sounds plenty authoritative to me personally.
I'm quite amused that weird ed has decided to make the NHS his focus at this election. Their feeble excuses on the welsh health service won't survive the thorough fisking they deserve and are bound to get in the run up to the GE
And Dave is the worst Tory ever to attack on the NHS. His personal story notwithstanding, he's not been such a bad PM for the NHS. I've heard a lot about the failure to meet the 95% target on a&e waiting times, but nothing on the masses of people who had their health compromised by the wait. He's ring fenced NHS spending and over the last five years I don't think I recall any massive NHS fu<k ups. Ooh except the top down reorganisation! That was the hugest fu<k up ever.
Except.. What's gone wrong that can be blamed on the huge top down reorganisation that's said to have happened? Other than the slightly longer waiting times for people that shouldn't have gone to a&e in the first place I haven't heard a lot about terrible NHS outcomes in recent times. Maybe labour have a database of them? Or something
Also.. Dave does have his personal story. Cynical hacks like us know that it's his NHS crutch, but it's also really a deeply sad and evocative story that I think gives him the 'passion for the NHS' stakes advantage over ed.
I doubt that dave's delighted that weird ed has made the NHS his battleground, I'm sure he doesn't enjoy discussing his family's tragedy, but ed made it his centre piece knowing how Dave would have to respond.
Forget that, he's probably just a normal bloke, but he looks weird, sounds weird, definitely acts weird on camera and cannot articulate effectively.
That's why Jack W says he will never be Prime Minister, and I think he is right.
Boston and Skegness is the only kipper territory nearby. Skegness is known in Leicester as "the Far East" holiday country!
As a committed Europhile he is setting himself up for failure, he will either come back with a poor package and attempt to pass it off as something which it is not or he will have to face defeat and campaign for a referendum.
If he is going to barely put any effort into it, the whole referendum issue could have been dealt with this parliament.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2928730/Pinned-bloodthirsty-ISIS-executioners-screaming-life-campaigners-Syria-release-footage-latest-man-beheaded-disobeying-Islamist-rules.html
Story below:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2928864/Extreme-internet-pornography-driving-people-inflict-sexual-violence-murder-country-s-senior-judge-warns.html
"the whole referendum issue could have been dealt with this parliament"
How would it have been snuck past the Lib Dems?
If anything Ed's weakness seems to me to be that (a) he appears not to have done the hard thinking about what sort of left of centre party Labour should or needs to be in the current world; and (b) no-one else in Labour seems to have thought about this either. So the biggest risk is that any Labour government will end up buffeted by events and, to coin a phrase, in office rather than in power.
The reason I mentioned events, though, was because I was thinking of what the Tories could do to change the narrative in their favour. Not a huge amount, barring the Budget, really.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8YQEUpCcAA-5gr.png
The only people left out there are those who want out but are too scared to make their case in a 2017 referendum
Polly blinking Toynbee retweets followers supporting her guardian rants and so thus links to her article again.... it's just as well only 20 or so people twank her but it comes across as desperate traffic generation for her pieces to me!
Perhaps her contract is up for renewal?
Unlike in W London it would seem.
Ken Clarke is charming and witty, and has fans on both sides of the political divide. Robin Cook and Mo Mowlam both had it too, so it's not a right versus left thing.
Miliband on the other hand bores the arse off most people, and speaks in the most inane of platitudes. That he also sounds and looks a bit odd doesn't help.
The tories can't be THAT worried, surely?
Not even the thick of it parodied an interview as badly as ed did that one about the strikes. Do I need to link to it again?
Now that is some achievement for their comfort zone.
[caveat - it's the telegraph]
Don't ask me why they would do this! However, if they have, it's on British territory, so we're up to our necks in Uncle Sams dirty business (tell us something new).
Firstly, you can argue that 10% of the National Vote is more than 3 million votes, which is plenty enough to save 30+ seats if those votes are in the right places.
Secondly, you can argue that the Lib Dem campaign will persuade enough reluctant former Lib Dem voters to vote Lib Dem at the election that they will out-perform their current relatively low poll ratings by a large margin.
I think those are both reasonable arguments. It might still not end up being enough, but I don't see any particularly convincing evidence to dismiss it.
You up to speed on yesterday's polling, or should we run through it with you?
Getting graduates to want to work in General Practice is much more than about money, it is having a sustainable work-life balance.