politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And for the evening with 100 days to go – a Marf cartoon
POliticalbetting's Marf on Cameron & Miliband pic.twitter.com/ubW5s0VSyb
Comments
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Longer than Ed0
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Nice one, Marf!0
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Re: Betfair Green vote market.
Annoyingly I missed the 8/1 on under 20% saved deposits (which was fantastic value), but before jumping on the 5/2 I did a quick crude calculation. Given the greengasm is very youth orientated and facebooky, I just looked at the constituency data for 18-30 voters on the electoral register in 2012 (573 England and wales seats only - that's all I have the age-breakdown data for)
The greens would save their deposits in the following constituencies;
If <10% 18-30's voters vote green = 0 deposits saved.
over 10% = 1 (Sheffield Central)
over 12.5% = 12
15% = 40
17.5% = 79
20% = 123 (21.3% of 573 constituencies)
22.5% = 197
25% = 297
27.5% = 373
30% = 454 (78.7% of 573 constituencies)
Given the impact of individual voter registration on the 18-30's, the historically low turnout amongst this age group (was 2010 an exception?), the large number of seats where the greens are standing and the clumpage of green activists around the cities/university seats, I think the 5/2 is a stonking bet. I'd have it at 4/6 personally.0 -
“Ed doesn’t really do abroad,” notes one shadow minister dealing with these issues.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/27/ed-miliband-unity-economic-inequality-labour0 -
Curse of the new thread!
FPT (in response to RNabavi):-
Maybe. I just wonder whether Milliband is as offputting as all that.
Even if they think he's geeky and a bit odd, they might think that he's going to help with fuel bills and he's not obviously a heartless rich chappie. Or they might just vote Labour anyway for other reasons.
Plenty of people voted for Brown and he struck me as even odder and geekier than Milliband.
I may be wholly wrong on this but I could imagine - one-to-one - having a conversation with Ed and being pleasantly surprised in a way that I cannot with Cameron. Possibly I've seen too many types like Cameron in the City.
I just wonder whethr the Ed is odd and not Prime Ministerial meme is overdone. Thatcher was viewed in the same way, thought from a different perspective. Even Heath who was about as far from being a human being as a human can be won an election0 -
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I wonder what Cameron will do if he does lose, he's still only 48. It's a bit early for him to be retiring from politics, but I can't imagine him on the backbenches.0
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@Cyclefree
"I may be wholly wrong on this but I could imagine - one-to-one - having a conversation with Ed and being pleasantly surprised in a way that I cannot with Cameron."
You are not wrong. I have (briefly) conversed with Ed. He can very approachable. But very definitely not marshmallow soft.
Oh, and nice one Marf (number two).0 -
He's not off-putting on a personal level, that's not what I meant. The abyss I was referring to was basically about economics and competence, not likeability. It's not just Ed M, either - the Labour front-bench is the weakest of either of the two main parties in decades.Cyclefree said:Curse of the new thread!
FPT (in response to RNabavi):-
Maybe. I just wonder whether Milliband is as offputting as all that.
Even if they think he's geeky and a bit odd, they might think that he's going to help with fuel bills and he's not obviously a heartless rich chappie. Or they might just vote Labour anyway for other reasons.
Plenty of people voted for Brown and he struck me as even odder and geekier than Milliband.
I may be wholly wrong on this but I could imagine - one-to-one - having a conversation with Ed and being pleasantly surprised in a way that I cannot with Cameron. Possibly I've seen too many types like Cameron in the City.
I just wonder whethr the Ed is odd and not Prime Ministerial meme is overdone. Thatcher was viewed in the same way, thought from a different perspective. Even Heath who was about as far from being a human being as a human can be won an election
Of course, no-one really knows how voters will react - I'm certainly arranging my affairs on the assumption that there is a substantial risk that they will jump into the void. However, my point was that you were looking at events to change the polling, and it doesn't necessarily require events.0 -
I see Miliband has supposedly reached out to Sinn Fein about potential to be in a coalition. So it'll be Scots, Welsh and Ulster votes all giving a majority when Labour have lost in England. And EVfEL won't stop all the executive action this Celtic-based majority will inflict on us.
We need an English parliament ASAP.0 -
Ambassador to Washington?Artist said:I wonder what Cameron will do if he does lose, he's still only 48. It's a bit early for him to be retiring from politics, but I can't imagine him on the backbenches.
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Channel 4 News is covering the awful murder by a convicted murderer that was freely let in the UK under the free movement of labour system supported by Ed and Dave. And neither of them want to do anything about other convicted murderers being able to come here from the EU.0
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Anecdote alert, according to two of my sisters in law, Ed M can be a joker, he had had one of those days, not one but two live encounters with the media, which had gone very badly for him, yet he made a phone call in jest which made someone else's day. She thought it was some sort of wind up.Cyclefree said:Curse of the new thread!
FPT (in response to RNabavi):-
Maybe. I just wonder whether Milliband is as offputting as all that.
Even if they think he's geeky and a bit odd, they might think that he's going to help with fuel bills and he's not obviously a heartless rich chappie. Or they might just vote Labour anyway for other reasons.
Plenty of people voted for Brown and he struck me as even odder and geekier than Milliband.
I may be wholly wrong on this but I could imagine - one-to-one - having a conversation with Ed and being pleasantly surprised in a way that I cannot with Cameron. Possibly I've seen too many types like Cameron in the City.
I just wonder whethr the Ed is odd and not Prime Ministerial meme is overdone. Thatcher was viewed in the same way, thought from a different perspective. Even Heath who was about as far from being a human being as a human can be won an election
On the other hand, he was in a coffee shop at the same time as my wife, who was blissfully unaware of his presence.0 -
EU Commissioner?Artist said:I wonder what Cameron will do if he does lose, he's still only 48. It's a bit early for him to be retiring from politics, but I can't imagine him on the backbenches.
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Nick Clegg would be the more appropriate figure of fun. - Gone either way? ; )0
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FPT.
pbr2013 said:
Re Putin and all that. While nobody who has read any Vasily Grossman can for a moment doubt the role of the Red Army in the destruction of the Nazi murder machine, nevertheless a degree of humility may also be appropriate on such a solemn occasion. I have in mind the Molotov/Ribbentoff pact and the Red Army's hesitation during the Warsaw Rising.
---------------------------------------------
Both the Molotov/Ribbentrop pact in 1939 and the Red Army halt before Warsaw in 1944 was on the direct command of Stalin. The Red Army didn't just halt; they sat on their bums and watched as the Polish military and partisans were destroyed by the Waffen SS and Gestapo execution squads piece by piece.
But then, those same Polish forces also sat on their bums in 1943 and did nothing at all to help the Jews who were rising from the Warsaw Ghetto.
Eastern European history is thick with betrayal.0 -
"Miliband’s instincts on globalisation are obscure. His criticism of capitalism is usually confined to its British manifestation. He is pro-European, in the automatic fashion of so many on the left who support the EU by default because it was conceived as an antidote to nationalism and causes the Tories pain."Scrapheap_as_was said:“Ed doesn’t really do abroad,” notes one shadow minister dealing with these issues.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/27/ed-miliband-unity-economic-inequality-labour
How true that is.0 -
That one eye of yours.. Of course you don't mention the convicted murderers who are Brits who are allowed free movement. I doubt you even believe in the rehabilitation of offenders. For you its anti EU soundbite politics and a good bashing of the EU is the bonus.Socrates said:Channel 4 News is covering the awful murder by a convicted murderer that was freely let in the UK under the free movement of labour system supported by Ed and Dave. And neither of them want to do anything about other convicted murderers being able to come here from the EU.
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There are some Tories who are as in love with the EU and the idea of the EU, as much or even more, than Miliband.Casino_Royale said:
"Miliband’s instincts on globalisation are obscure. His criticism of capitalism is usually confined to its British manifestation. He is pro-European, in the automatic fashion of so many on the left who support the EU by default because it was conceived as an antidote to nationalism and causes the Tories pain."Scrapheap_as_was said:“Ed doesn’t really do abroad,” notes one shadow minister dealing with these issues.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/27/ed-miliband-unity-economic-inequality-labour
How true that is.
I put Cameron in that europhile company, and if anyone expects anything from his proposed negotiations with Brussels, they've got a big disappointment coming to them.0 -
Why don't you address the problem instead of changing the subject?SquareRoot said:
That one eye of yours.. Of course you don't mention the convicted murderers who are Brits who are allowed free movement. I doubt you even believe in the rehabilitation of offenders. For you its anti EU soundbite politics and a good bashing of the EU is the bonus.Socrates said:Channel 4 News is covering the awful murder by a convicted murderer that was freely let in the UK under the free movement of labour system supported by Ed and Dave. And neither of them want to do anything about other convicted murderers being able to come here from the EU.
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MH370 shot down by US, says former airline CEO
Read more: http://www.theweek.co.uk/world-news/flight-mh370/57641/mh370-details-of-who-was-on-missing-plane-are-being-withheld-says#ixzz3Q3PdbYuc
This is a new one on me. How serious is this?0 -
The older Tories think it's an antidote to any more trans-continential war, and maintains peace. They are also more at home doing business with foreign elites than the great domestic unwashed. A few still cling to the belief it allows the UK (i.e. them) to exercise more influence and power on the world stage.MikeK said:
There are some Tories who are as in love with the EU and the idea of the EU, as much or even more, than Miliband.Casino_Royale said:
"Miliband’s instincts on globalisation are obscure. His criticism of capitalism is usually confined to its British manifestation. He is pro-European, in the automatic fashion of so many on the left who support the EU by default because it was conceived as an antidote to nationalism and causes the Tories pain."Scrapheap_as_was said:“Ed doesn’t really do abroad,” notes one shadow minister dealing with these issues.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/27/ed-miliband-unity-economic-inequality-labour
How true that is.
I put Cameron in that europhile company, and if anyone expects anything from his proposed negotiations with Brussels, they've got a big disappointment coming to them.
Amongst the younger generation, some do so because their middle-class London-centric peer group take it as the default status quo, so don't question it or even discuss it. Amongst the leaders, Cameron/Osborne, their donors and friends consistently tell them it's in our (their) financial interest to remain in the single market.
They believe them.0 -
Sounds like the opinion of a nutter.MikeK said:MH370 shot down by US, says former airline CEO
Read more: http://www.theweek.co.uk/world-news/flight-mh370/57641/mh370-details-of-who-was-on-missing-plane-are-being-withheld-says#ixzz3Q3PdbYuc
This is a new one on me. How serious is this?0 -
FPT
Thanks Casino_Royale that's much appreciated. You are a gentleman (if you're male?!).Casino_Royale said:@AudreyAnne - good on you for posting the reasoning behind your predictions.
On a betting site that's important: it allows us to debate and test those assumptions, and discuss the reasoning, so we're all as informed as we can be when assessing the possible spread of results, and to place bets accordingly.
Whilst I don't agree with your conclusions, and would question the evidence behind most of your assumptions, I respect you for posting them.0 -
Ah, this might explain why he's dropped all his difficult demands to the EU - he's angling for a plush role there for his semi-retirement.SandyRentool said:
Ambassador to Washington?Artist said:I wonder what Cameron will do if he does lose, he's still only 48. It's a bit early for him to be retiring from politics, but I can't imagine him on the backbenches.
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Last time I checked. Thank you.audreyanne said:FPT
Thanks Casino_Royale that's much appreciated. You are a gentleman (if you're male?!).Casino_Royale said:@AudreyAnne - good on you for posting the reasoning behind your predictions.
On a betting site that's important: it allows us to debate and test those assumptions, and discuss the reasoning, so we're all as informed as we can be when assessing the possible spread of results, and to place bets accordingly.
Whilst I don't agree with your conclusions, and would question the evidence behind most of your assumptions, I respect you for posting them.
Are you a lady yourself?0 -
I did. Free movement is not one way traffic, nor can it ever be.AndyJS said:
Why don't you address the problem instead of changing the subject?SquareRoot said:
That one eye of yours.. Of course you don't mention the convicted murderers who are Brits who are allowed free movement. I doubt you even believe in the rehabilitation of offenders. For you its anti EU soundbite politics and a good bashing of the EU is the bonus.Socrates said:Channel 4 News is covering the awful murder by a convicted murderer that was freely let in the UK under the free movement of labour system supported by Ed and Dave. And neither of them want to do anything about other convicted murderers being able to come here from the EU.
I feel sure that when you want to pop off to some Euro destination ..say France.. and they take a dislike to the cut of your jib because of something in your past, you will happily accede to their refusal, or would you slag them off?.
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Lib Dem Tessa Munt quits as parliamentary aide to Business Secretary Vince Cable after voting against government on fracking
- BBC
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Vicky @2tweetaboutit 26m26 minutes ago
Breaking news: Grantham councillors defect to UKIP from the Conservative Party - Grantham Journal: http://www.granthamjournal.co.uk/news/politics/politics-news/breaking-news-grantham-councillors-defect-to-ukip-from-the-conservative-party-1-6545842#.VMfvK0VbcP4.twitter …
Dave forcing old tories to leave the party.0 -
Ed Miliband is a charming person and very witty. I can say that from personal knowledge. To hold his nasal speech [ something presumably he was born with ] against him is simply childish.dr_spyn said:
Anecdote alert, according to two of my sisters in law, Ed M can be a joker, he had had one of those days, not one but two live encounters with the media, which had gone very badly for him, yet he made a phone call in jest which made someone else's day. She thought it was some sort of wind up.Cyclefree said:Curse of the new thread!
FPT (in response to RNabavi):-
Maybe. I just wonder whether Milliband is as offputting as all that.
Even if they think he's geeky and a bit odd, they might think that he's going to help with fuel bills and he's not obviously a heartless rich chappie. Or they might just vote Labour anyway for other reasons.
Plenty of people voted for Brown and he struck me as even odder and geekier than Milliband.
I may be wholly wrong on this but I could imagine - one-to-one - having a conversation with Ed and being pleasantly surprised in a way that I cannot with Cameron. Possibly I've seen too many types like Cameron in the City.
I just wonder whethr the Ed is odd and not Prime Ministerial meme is overdone. Thatcher was viewed in the same way, thought from a different perspective. Even Heath who was about as far from being a human being as a human can be won an election
On the other hand, he was in a coffee shop at the same time as my wife, who was blissfully unaware of his presence.0 -
Sounds like a good old fashioned deselection row rather than anything ideological.MikeK said:Vicky @2tweetaboutit 26m26 minutes ago
Breaking news: Grantham councillors defect to UKIP from the Conservative Party - Grantham Journal: http://www.granthamjournal.co.uk/news/politics/politics-news/breaking-news-grantham-councillors-defect-to-ukip-from-the-conservative-party-1-6545842#.VMfvK0VbcP4.twitter …
Dave forcing old tories to leave the party.0 -
Don't these happen all the time with people from all parties for all sorts of reasons ?foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like a good old fashioned deselection row rather than anything ideological.MikeK said:Vicky @2tweetaboutit 26m26 minutes ago
Breaking news: Grantham councillors defect to UKIP from the Conservative Party - Grantham Journal: http://www.granthamjournal.co.uk/news/politics/politics-news/breaking-news-grantham-councillors-defect-to-ukip-from-the-conservative-party-1-6545842#.VMfvK0VbcP4.twitter …
Dave forcing old tories to leave the party.0 -
The great irony is that with oil at sub $50, there is absolutely no chance fracking will be commercially viable in the UK.MarkHopkins said:
Lib Dem Tessa Munt quits as parliamentary aide to Business Secretary Vince Cable after voting against government on fracking
- BBC0 -
Haha, I asked for thatCasino_Royale said:
Last time I checked. Thank you.audreyanne said:FPT
Thanks Casino_Royale that's much appreciated. You are a gentleman (if you're male?!).Casino_Royale said:@AudreyAnne - good on you for posting the reasoning behind your predictions.
On a betting site that's important: it allows us to debate and test those assumptions, and discuss the reasoning, so we're all as informed as we can be when assessing the possible spread of results, and to place bets accordingly.
Whilst I don't agree with your conclusions, and would question the evidence behind most of your assumptions, I respect you for posting them.
Are you a lady yourself?
Yes the last time I checked! I like Mrs Doubtfire as an avatar because she is enigmatic. But, yes, I'm peering over my breasts as I write. Tmi!
I didn't actually mention Tooting, but I don't disagree about it being Labour this time. Probably. However, however, however … that constituency is very interesting. I know it very well, as in up-to-date and in-depth. There are significant changes there that make the profile much less safe Labour than you would think considering the strong Asian community and the Sadik Khan factor. In fact if I was going to buy again in London, Tooting is one area I would snap up, and not just to the north which has changed so much. (Earlsfield has a distinctly middle class air to it these days.) But also south, even around Tooting Bec. Look at the rising Conservative share of the vote:surbiton said:audreyanne said:The cost of coalition: how the LibDems will hand the Conservatives victory 2/3
20 of the following 25 to go from yellow to blue
2/3
Tooting will be even safer Labour this time.
2001 26.4%
2005 30.2%
2010 38.5%
Majority 2,524
You're a brave man to say it will go more safely Labour.0 -
Is Grantham and Stamford going UKIP ?foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like a good old fashioned deselection row rather than anything ideological.MikeK said:Vicky @2tweetaboutit 26m26 minutes ago
Breaking news: Grantham councillors defect to UKIP from the Conservative Party - Grantham Journal: http://www.granthamjournal.co.uk/news/politics/politics-news/breaking-news-grantham-councillors-defect-to-ukip-from-the-conservative-party-1-6545842#.VMfvK0VbcP4.twitter …
Dave forcing old tories to leave the party.0 -
Packing her bags ahead of losing her seat then. Wells is one of the most likely yellow to blue conversions coming up on May 7th.MarkHopkins said:
Lib Dem Tessa Munt quits as parliamentary aide to Business Secretary Vince Cable after voting against government on fracking
- BBC
(Imho)0 -
Yes, let's stop there. There's a danger this all gets a bit Brooks Newmark.audreyanne said:
Haha, I asked for thatCasino_Royale said:
Last time I checked. Thank you.audreyanne said:FPT
Thanks Casino_Royale that's much appreciated. You are a gentleman (if you're male?!).Casino_Royale said:@AudreyAnne - good on you for posting the reasoning behind your predictions.
On a betting site that's important: it allows us to debate and test those assumptions, and discuss the reasoning, so we're all as informed as we can be when assessing the possible spread of results, and to place bets accordingly.
Whilst I don't agree with your conclusions, and would question the evidence behind most of your assumptions, I respect you for posting them.
Are you a lady yourself? Yes the last time I checked! I like Mrs Doubtfire as an avatar because she is enigmatic. But, yes, I'm peering over my breasts as I write. Tmi!
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Based on the August Ashcroft polling that looks reasonably good - except there were a lot of 2010 LD DKs and there's a lot of LAB voters to squeeze. I wouldn't count your chickens.audreyanne said:
Packing her bags ahead of losing her seat then. Wells is one of the most likely yellow to blue conversions coming up on May 7th.MarkHopkins said:
Lib Dem Tessa Munt quits as parliamentary aide to Business Secretary Vince Cable after voting against government on fracking
- BBC
(Imho)
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Sean_F said:
At the next election, I'd favour the Conservatives to gain Berwick, Somerton & Frome, Solihull, Portsmouth South, Mid-Dorset, and Chippenham.taffys said:They were also, deludedly, expecting a Tory landslide at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.
How do you know its a delusion? the election is still 100 days away. Judging on the poll figures and every real election since 2014, its a perfectly logical forecast to make, isn't it?
Surely the 'lib dems ground game / anti tory vote is strong' reasoning is far more illogical.
I'd be surprised if there's much of an anti tory vote in some of the Southern lib dem seats. Prosperous constituencies like Kingston and Surbiton have no such qualms, connected as they are to the economic powerhouse of London.
I think they have a real chance of gaining Brecon & Radnor, the three Cornish seats, North Devon, Torbay, Roxburgh, and West Aberdeenshire.
They'd better bloody gain Solihull !0 -
O/T Just been polled by Populus.
Via LL, wanted respondents aged 18-44 in my constituency (NE Cambs).
Prompted for UKIP, then prompted for my constituency.
Asked how I rated Cameron as PM, then asked to compare with Milliband.
Asked if any party had been in touch.
Asked what GE result I wanted and given choice of con maj, con coalition, lab maj, lab coalition.
Asked occupation and then name.
Anyone know who it is for?0 -
Yes, Wells will go blue too. Though it's a constituency I haven't bet on... bit wary of betting against the Lib Dems in the Southwest.audreyanne said:
Packing her bags ahead of losing her seat then. Wells is one of the most likely yellow to blue conversions coming up on May 7th.MarkHopkins said:
Lib Dem Tessa Munt quits as parliamentary aide to Business Secretary Vince Cable after voting against government on fracking
- BBC
(Imho)0 -
Is there an election pending and the need to keep Green leaning voters onside?MarkHopkins said:
Lib Dem Tessa Munt quits as parliamentary aide to Business Secretary Vince Cable after voting against government on fracking
- BBC
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The separate question on Cameron suggests a Tory poll. But if they're worried about NE Cambs (lead last time 31%) they're REALLY worried!Gaius said:O/T Just been polled by Populus.
Via LL, wanted respondents aged 18-44 in my constituency (NE Cambs).
Prompted for UKIP, then prompted for my constituency.
Asked how I rated Cameron as PM, then asked to compare with Milliband.
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O.B.N. award winner.surbiton said:
Ed Miliband is a charming person and very witty. I can say that from personal knowledge. To hold his nasal speech [ something presumably he was born with ] against him is simply childish.dr_spyn said:
Anecdote alert, according to two of my sisters in law, Ed M can be a joker, he had had one of those days, not one but two live encounters with the media, which had gone very badly for him, yet he made a phone call in jest which made someone else's day. She thought it was some sort of wind up.Cyclefree said:Curse of the new thread!
FPT (in response to RNabavi):-
Maybe. I just wonder whether Milliband is as offputting as all that.
Even if they think he's geeky and a bit odd, they might think that he's going to help with fuel bills and he's not obviously a heartless rich chappie. Or they might just vote Labour anyway for other reasons.
Plenty of people voted for Brown and he struck me as even odder and geekier than Milliband.
I may be wholly wrong on this but I could imagine - one-to-one - having a conversation with Ed and being pleasantly surprised in a way that I cannot with Cameron. Possibly I've seen too many types like Cameron in the City.
I just wonder whethr the Ed is odd and not Prime Ministerial meme is overdone. Thatcher was viewed in the same way, thought from a different perspective. Even Heath who was about as far from being a human being as a human can be won an election
On the other hand, he was in a coffee shop at the same time as my wife, who was blissfully unaware of his presence.
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Berwick's a seat I know well and the Ashcroft polling had the LD ahead amongst those expressing a preference Turnout weighting took it blue and the LD machine is strong. As I've argued before in the marginals self-certified turnout weighting is less relevant. The machines get the mosr marginal voter out to vote.Pulpstar said:Sean_F said:
At the next election, I'd favour the Conservatives to gain Berwick, Somerton & Frome, Solihull, Portsmouth South, Mid-Dorset, and Chippenham.taffys said:They were also, deludedly, expecting a Tory landslide at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.
How do you know its a delusion? the election is still 100 days away. Judging on the poll figures and every real election since 2014, its a perfectly logical forecast to make, isn't it?
Surely the 'lib dems ground game / anti tory vote is strong' reasoning is far more illogical.
I'd be surprised if there's much of an anti tory vote in some of the Southern lib dem seats. Prosperous constituencies like Kingston and Surbiton have no such qualms, connected as they are to the economic powerhouse of London.
I think they have a real chance of gaining Brecon & Radnor, the three Cornish seats, North Devon, Torbay, Roxburgh, and West Aberdeenshire.
They'd better bloody gain Solihull !
The key thing in many yellow defences is level of organisation. The Tories are generally weaker.
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The less Cameron demands the weaker the case for staying in the EC is and the greater the chance we leave after a referendum. (As per Dan Hannon view on life).Socrates said:
Ah, this might explain why he's dropped all his difficult demands to the EU - he's angling for a plush role there for his semi-retirement.SandyRentool said:
Ambassador to Washington?Artist said:I wonder what Cameron will do if he does lose, he's still only 48. It's a bit early for him to be retiring from politics, but I can't imagine him on the backbenches.
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People may not consciously hold such a thing against him even if it does not sound good to them, so unless someone is mocking him for sounding weird (which does indeed happen), I don't think it is childish exactly.surbiton said:
Ed Miliband is a charming person and very witty. I can say that from personal knowledge. To hold his nasal speech [ something presumably he was born with ] against him is simply childish.dr_spyn said:
Anecdote alert, according to two of my sisters in law, Ed M can be a joker, he had had one of those days, not one but two live encounters with the media, which had gone very badly for him, yet he made a phone call in jest which made someone else's day. She thought it was some sort of wind up.Cyclefree said:Curse of the new thread!
FPT (in response to RNabavi):-
Maybe. I just wonder whether Milliband is as offputting as all that.
Even if they think he's geeky and a bit odd, they might think that he's going to help with fuel bills and he's not obviously a heartless rich chappie. Or they might just vote Labour anyway for other reasons.
Plenty of people voted for Brown and he struck me as even odder and geekier than Milliband.
I may be wholly wrong on this but I could imagine - one-to-one - having a conversation with Ed and being pleasantly surprised in a way that I cannot with Cameron. Possibly I've seen too many types like Cameron in the City.
I just wonder whethr the Ed is odd and not Prime Ministerial meme is overdone. Thatcher was viewed in the same way, thought from a different perspective. Even Heath who was about as far from being a human being as a human can be won an election
On the other hand, he was in a coffee shop at the same time as my wife, who was blissfully unaware of his presence.
That said, my boss is a vocal doppleganger for Ed M, so he sounds plenty authoritative to me personally.0 -
Bravo Marf!
I'm quite amused that weird ed has decided to make the NHS his focus at this election. Their feeble excuses on the welsh health service won't survive the thorough fisking they deserve and are bound to get in the run up to the GE
And Dave is the worst Tory ever to attack on the NHS. His personal story notwithstanding, he's not been such a bad PM for the NHS. I've heard a lot about the failure to meet the 95% target on a&e waiting times, but nothing on the masses of people who had their health compromised by the wait. He's ring fenced NHS spending and over the last five years I don't think I recall any massive NHS fu<k ups. Ooh except the top down reorganisation! That was the hugest fu<k up ever.
Except.. What's gone wrong that can be blamed on the huge top down reorganisation that's said to have happened? Other than the slightly longer waiting times for people that shouldn't have gone to a&e in the first place I haven't heard a lot about terrible NHS outcomes in recent times. Maybe labour have a database of them? Or something
Also.. Dave does have his personal story. Cynical hacks like us know that it's his NHS crutch, but it's also really a deeply sad and evocative story that I think gives him the 'passion for the NHS' stakes advantage over ed.
I doubt that dave's delighted that weird ed has made the NHS his battleground, I'm sure he doesn't enjoy discussing his family's tragedy, but ed made it his centre piece knowing how Dave would have to respond.
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Have you not been following the polling on this?JonnyJimmy said:
I'm quite amused that weird ed has decided to make the NHS his focus at this election.0 -
Free movement for convicted murderers (British or foreign) is probably not a very persuasive argument in favour of EU membership.SquareRoot said:
That one eye of yours.. Of course you don't mention the convicted murderers who are Brits who are allowed free movement. I doubt you even believe in the rehabilitation of offenders. For you its anti EU soundbite politics and a good bashing of the EU is the bonus.Socrates said:Channel 4 News is covering the awful murder by a convicted murderer that was freely let in the UK under the free movement of labour system supported by Ed and Dave. And neither of them want to do anything about other convicted murderers being able to come here from the EU.
0 -
Except that when the overall vote share falls as low as 11%, 10% or even 9%, local organisation cannot save many seats.MikeSmithson said:
Berwick's a seat I know well and the Ashcroft polling had the LD ahead amongst those expressing a preference Turnout weighting took it blue and the LD machine is strong. As I've argued before in the marginals self-certified turnout weighting is less relevant. The machines get the mosr marginal voter out to vote.Pulpstar said:
They'd better bloody gain Solihull !Sean_F said:
At the next election, I'd favour the Conservatives to gain Berwick, Somerton & Frome, Solihull, Portsmouth South, Mid-Dorset, and Chippenham.taffys said:They were also, deludedly, expecting a Tory landslide at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.
How do you know its a delusion? the election is still 100 days away. Judging on the poll figures and every real election since 2014, its a perfectly logical forecast to make, isn't it?
Surely the 'lib dems ground game / anti tory vote is strong' reasoning is far more illogical.
I'd be surprised if there's much of an anti tory vote in some of the Southern lib dem seats. Prosperous constituencies like Kingston and Surbiton have no such qualms, connected as they are to the economic powerhouse of London.
I think they have a real chance of gaining Brecon & Radnor, the three Cornish seats, North Devon, Torbay, Roxburgh, and West Aberdeenshire.
The key thing in many yellow defences is level of organisation. The Tories are generally weaker.
0 -
Are you Sam Cameron ?audreyanne said:
Packing her bags ahead of losing her seat then. Wells is one of the most likely yellow to blue conversions coming up on May 7th.MarkHopkins said:
Lib Dem Tessa Munt quits as parliamentary aide to Business Secretary Vince Cable after voting against government on fracking
- BBC
(Imho)0 -
I think there's some confusion over what might seem fair to some as the reaction of people to Labour or Tory records on the NHS, and what peoples' actual reactions to those records are, fair or not.Neil said:
Have you not been following the polling on this?JonnyJimmy said:
I'm quite amused that weird ed has decided to make the NHS his focus at this election.0 -
I recall someone saying they had met Ed playing with his kids in the park opposite (his tax avoided mansion)kle4 said:
People may not consciously hold such a thing against him even if it does not sound good to them, so unless someone is mocking him for sounding weird (which does indeed happen), I don't think it is childish exactly.surbiton said:
Ed Miliband is a charming person and very witty. I can say that from personal knowledge. To hold his nasal speech [ something presumably he was born with ] against him is simply childish.dr_spyn said:
Anecdote alert, according to two of my sisters in law, Ed M can be a joker, he had had one of those days, not one but two live encounters with the media, which had gone very badly for him, yet he made a phone call in jest which made someone else's day. She thought it was some sort of wind up.Cyclefree said:Curse of the new thread!
FPT (in response to RNabavi):-
Maybe. I just wonder whether Milliband is as offputting as all that.
Even if they think he's geeky and a bit odd, they might think that he's going to help with fuel bills and he's not obviously a heartless rich chappie. Or they might just vote Labour anyway for other reasons.
Plenty of people voted for Brown and he struck me as even odder and geekier than Milliband.
I may be wholly wrong on this but I could imagine - one-to-one - having a conversation with Ed and being pleasantly surprised in a way that I cannot with Cameron. Possibly I've seen too many types like Cameron in the City.
I just wonder whethr the Ed is odd and not Prime Ministerial meme is overdone. Thatcher was viewed in the same way, thought from a different perspective. Even Heath who was about as far from being a human being as a human can be won an election
On the other hand, he was in a coffee shop at the same time as my wife, who was blissfully unaware of his presence.
That said, my boss is a vocal doppleganger for Ed M, so he sounds plenty authoritative to me personally.
Forget that, he's probably just a normal bloke, but he looks weird, sounds weird, definitely acts weird on camera and cannot articulate effectively.
That's why Jack W says he will never be Prime Minister, and I think he is right.0 -
It is Fenland, so UKIP should come second, but I doubt if it's in danger.NickPalmer said:
The separate question on Cameron suggests a Tory poll. But if they're worried about NE Cambs (lead last time 31%) they're REALLY worried!Gaius said:O/T Just been polled by Populus.
Via LL, wanted respondents aged 18-44 in my constituency (NE Cambs).
Prompted for UKIP, then prompted for my constituency.
Asked how I rated Cameron as PM, then asked to compare with Milliband.0 -
reading the newspaper article, silly old couple take umbridge because local Tory association selects 2 others as candidates for wards and so they jump ship to UKIP. No-one has a God-given right to be selected for anything.surbiton said:
Is Grantham and Stamford going UKIP ?foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like a good old fashioned deselection row rather than anything ideological.MikeK said:Vicky @2tweetaboutit 26m26 minutes ago
Breaking news: Grantham councillors defect to UKIP from the Conservative Party - Grantham Journal: http://www.granthamjournal.co.uk/news/politics/politics-news/breaking-news-grantham-councillors-defect-to-ukip-from-the-conservative-party-1-6545842#.VMfvK0VbcP4.twitter …
Dave forcing old tories to leave the party.0 -
Lincs has a fair number of kippers, but I thing safe for the blues. Grantham hospital has a few problems, Stamford is where posh people who work in Peterborough live.surbiton said:
Is Grantham and Stamford going UKIP ?foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like a good old fashioned deselection row rather than anything ideological.MikeK said:Vicky @2tweetaboutit 26m26 minutes ago
Breaking news: Grantham councillors defect to UKIP from the Conservative Party - Grantham Journal: http://www.granthamjournal.co.uk/news/politics/politics-news/breaking-news-grantham-councillors-defect-to-ukip-from-the-conservative-party-1-6545842#.VMfvK0VbcP4.twitter …
Dave forcing old tories to leave the party.
Boston and Skegness is the only kipper territory nearby. Skegness is known in Leicester as "the Far East" holiday country!0 -
Defections in local government are usually down to personal factors.foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like a good old fashioned deselection row rather than anything ideological.MikeK said:Vicky @2tweetaboutit 26m26 minutes ago
Breaking news: Grantham councillors defect to UKIP from the Conservative Party - Grantham Journal: http://www.granthamjournal.co.uk/news/politics/politics-news/breaking-news-grantham-councillors-defect-to-ukip-from-the-conservative-party-1-6545842#.VMfvK0VbcP4.twitter …
Dave forcing old tories to leave the party.
0 -
He must realise that he has a reasonable chance of getting re-elected and anything short of a substantial renegotiation package will require him attempting to hold a referendum.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The less Cameron demands the weaker the case for staying in the EC is and the greater the chance we leave after a referendum. (As per Dan Hannon view on life).Socrates said:
Ah, this might explain why he's dropped all his difficult demands to the EU - he's angling for a plush role there for his semi-retirement.SandyRentool said:
Ambassador to Washington?Artist said:I wonder what Cameron will do if he does lose, he's still only 48. It's a bit early for him to be retiring from politics, but I can't imagine him on the backbenches.
As a committed Europhile he is setting himself up for failure, he will either come back with a poor package and attempt to pass it off as something which it is not or he will have to face defeat and campaign for a referendum.
If he is going to barely put any effort into it, the whole referendum issue could have been dealt with this parliament.
0 -
Story above:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2928730/Pinned-bloodthirsty-ISIS-executioners-screaming-life-campaigners-Syria-release-footage-latest-man-beheaded-disobeying-Islamist-rules.html
Story below:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2928864/Extreme-internet-pornography-driving-people-inflict-sexual-violence-murder-country-s-senior-judge-warns.html0 -
In 2001 you [ Tories ] won 164 seats. In 2010, you won 307 seats. If you could not win in 2010, you are unlikely to win now. Tooting was, after all, one of the few seats where the Labour vote actually went up.audreyanne said:
Haha, I asked for thatCasino_Royale said:
Last time I checked. Thank you.audreyanne said:FPT
Thanks Casino_Royale that's much appreciated. You are a gentleman (if you're male?!).Casino_Royale said:@AudreyAnne - good on you for posting the reasoning behind your predictions.
On a betting site that's important: it allows us to debate and test those assumptions, and discuss the reasoning, so we're all as informed as we can be when assessing the possible spread of results, and to place bets accordingly.
Whilst I don't agree with your conclusions, and would question the evidence behind most of your assumptions, I respect you for posting them.
Are you a lady yourself? Yes the last time I checked! I like Mrs Doubtfire as an avatar because she is enigmatic. But, yes, I'm peering over my breasts as I write. Tmi!
I didn't actually mention Tooting, but I don't disagree about it being Labour this time. Probably. However, however, however … that constituency is very interesting. I know it very well, as in up-to-date and in-depth. There are significant changes there that make the profile much less safe Labour than you would think considering the strong Asian community and the Sadik Khan factor. In fact if I was going to buy again in London, Tooting is one area I would snap up, and not just to the north which has changed so much. (Earlsfield has a distinctly middle class air to it these days.) But also south, even around Tooting Bec. Look at the rising Conservative share of the vote:surbiton said:audreyanne said:The cost of coalition: how the LibDems will hand the Conservatives victory 2/3
20 of the following 25 to go from yellow to blue
2/3
Tooting will be even safer Labour this time.
2001 26.4%
2005 30.2%
2010 38.5%
Majority 2,524
You're a brave man to say it will go more safely Labour.0 -
Yes. There have been times when Dave has been pretty close to Ed/Gord on polling for that. His party are always behind but he sometimes has to get personal.Neil said:
Have you not been following the polling on this?JonnyJimmy said:
I'm quite amused that weird ed has decided to make the NHS his focus at this election.0 -
Strangely I don't think British convicted murderers being free to go to other countries makes up for foreign convicted murderers being free to come here. It's not a soundbite, it's a legitimate criticism of an idiotic policy.SquareRoot said:
That one eye of yours.. Of course you don't mention the convicted murderers who are Brits who are allowed free movement. I doubt you even believe in the rehabilitation of offenders. For you its anti EU soundbite politics and a good bashing of the EU is the bonus.Socrates said:Channel 4 News is covering the awful murder by a convicted murderer that was freely let in the UK under the free movement of labour system supported by Ed and Dave. And neither of them want to do anything about other convicted murderers being able to come here from the EU.
0 -
I never said it was, it was the looking at it and everything else related to the EU with one eye that pervades the UKIP view. Socrates never mentioned that British murderers going abroad was a problem, only those coming here.. it suited what he wanted to sayt. Ask Socrates how he slagged off the EU before he had even read the story.. You see it here on PB every day.Sean_F said:
Free movement for convicted murderers (British or foreign) is probably not a very persuasive argument in favour of EU membership.SquareRoot said:
That one eye of yours.. Of course you don't mention the convicted murderers who are Brits who are allowed free movement. I doubt you even believe in the rehabilitation of offenders. For you its anti EU soundbite politics and a good bashing of the EU is the bonus.Socrates said:Channel 4 News is covering the awful murder by a convicted murderer that was freely let in the UK under the free movement of labour system supported by Ed and Dave. And neither of them want to do anything about other convicted murderers being able to come here from the EU.
0 -
There are not enough votes in this parliament to initiate a referendum on the EU and particularly a Brexit if the population demanded it by a vote. You should understand the political realities and support the idea of a Conservative majority government. Kippers either are ignorant of the facts or choose to ignore them.MP_SE said:
He must realise that he has a reasonable chance of getting re-elected and anything short of a substantial renegotiation package will require him attempting to hold a referendum.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The less Cameron demands the weaker the case for staying in the EC is and the greater the chance we leave after a referendum. (As per Dan Hannon view on life).Socrates said:
Ah, this might explain why he's dropped all his difficult demands to the EU - he's angling for a plush role there for his semi-retirement.SandyRentool said:
Ambassador to Washington?Artist said:I wonder what Cameron will do if he does lose, he's still only 48. It's a bit early for him to be retiring from politics, but I can't imagine him on the backbenches.
As a committed Europhile he is setting himself up for failure, he will either come back with a poor package and attempt to pass it off as something which it is not or he will have to face defeat and campaign for a referendum.
If he is going to barely put any effort into it, the whole referendum issue could have been dealt with this parliament.
0 -
MP_SE said:
He must realise that he has a reasonable chance of getting re-elected and anything short of a substantial renegotiation package will require him attempting to hold a referendum.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The less Cameron demands the weaker the case for staying in the EC is and the greater the chance we leave after a referendum. (As per Dan Hannon view on life).Socrates said:
Ah, this might explain why he's dropped all his difficult demands to the EU - he's angling for a plush role there for his semi-retirement.SandyRentool said:
Ambassador to Washington?Artist said:I wonder what Cameron will do if he does lose, he's still only 48. It's a bit early for him to be retiring from politics, but I can't imagine him on the backbenches.
As a committed Europhile he is setting himself up for failure, he will either come back with a poor package and attempt to pass it off as something which it is not or he will have to face defeat and campaign for a referendum.
If he is going to barely put any effort into it, the whole referendum issue could have been dealt with this parliament.
"the whole referendum issue could have been dealt with this parliament"
How would it have been snuck past the Lib Dems?
0 -
You've followed the polling and you are still amused that Labour are going to major on the NHS? Ok.JonnyJimmy said:
Yes. There have been times when Dave has been pretty close to Ed/Gord on polling for that. His party are always behind but he sometimes has to get personal.Neil said:
Have you not been following the polling on this?JonnyJimmy said:
I'm quite amused that weird ed has decided to make the NHS his focus at this election.
0 -
Cameron/Hague/Osborne had no plan for Europe. Hague is particularly bad at this. Finding themselves in a coalition gave them another excuse to do little. It was their backbenchers through a series of votes that forced them to make the referendum promise and to both delay it into 2017 and link it to a "re-negotiation" in the hope that they could persuade enough of the EC countries to give enough concessions that made staying in saleable. Quite a high risk strategy. Now if instead they had a plan at the start they could have given the same referendum promise AND kept more of their support with them and not lost those to UKIP. This may even cost the Conservatives a majority at this election. Just because they had no plan for handling the Europe matter.MP_SE said:
He must realise that he has a reasonable chance of getting re-elected and anything short of a substantial renegotiation package will require him attempting to hold a referendum. As a committed Europhile he is setting himself up for failure, he will either come back with a poor package and attempt to pass it off as something which it is not or he will have to face defeat and campaign for a referendum. If he is going to barely put any effort into it, the whole referendum issue could have been dealt with this parliament.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The less Cameron demands the weaker the case for staying in the EC is and the greater the chance we leave after a referendum. (As per Dan Hannon view on life).Socrates said:
Ah, this might explain why he's dropped all his difficult demands to the EU - he's angling for a plush role there for his semi-retirement.SandyRentool said:
Ambassador to Washington?Artist said:I wonder what Cameron will do if he does lose, he's still only 48. It's a bit early for him to be retiring from politics, but I can't imagine him on the backbenches.
0 -
I thought they were going large on Ed Miliband. Or is that the Conservative strategyNeil said:
You've followed the polling and you are still amused that Labour are going to major on the NHS? Ok.JonnyJimmy said:
Yes. There have been times when Dave has been pretty close to Ed/Gord on polling for that. His party are always behind but he sometimes has to get personal.Neil said:
Have you not been following the polling on this?JonnyJimmy said:
I'm quite amused that weird ed has decided to make the NHS his focus at this election.
? 0 -
Will people necessarily think that voting for Ed will result in doom, though? I'm not entirely sure myself. He may be useless or he may surprise. The 2 economic policies we know about: cutting fuel bills and the mansion tax are generally popular. It's not just that Ed appears to be a bit of an unknown but that all the other members of the shadow cabinet are equally meh or invisible.Richard_Nabavi said:
He's not off-putting on a personal level, that's not what I meant. The abyss I was referring to was basically about economics and competence, not likeability. It's not just Ed M, either - the Labour front-bench is the weakest of either of the two main parties in decades.Cyclefree said:Curse of the new thread!
FPT (in response to RNabavi):-
Maybe. I just wonder whether Milliband is as offputting as all that.
Even if they think he's geeky and a bit odd, they might think that he's going to help with fuel bills and he's not obviously a heartless rich chappie. Or they might just vote Labour anyway for other reasons.
Plenty of people voted for Brown and he struck me as even odder and geekier than Milliband.
I may be wholly wrong on this but I could imagine - one-to-one - having a conversation with Ed and being pleasantly surprised in a way that I cannot with Cameron. Possibly I've seen too many types like Cameron in the City.
I just wonder whethr the Ed is odd and not Prime Ministerial meme is overdone. Thatcher was viewed in the same way, thought from a different perspective. Even Heath who was about as far from being a human being as a human can be won an election
Of course, no-one really knows how voters will react - I'm certainly arranging my affairs on the assumption that there is a substantial risk that they will jump into the void. However, my point was that you were looking at events to change the polling, and it doesn't necessarily require events.
If anything Ed's weakness seems to me to be that (a) he appears not to have done the hard thinking about what sort of left of centre party Labour should or needs to be in the current world; and (b) no-one else in Labour seems to have thought about this either. So the biggest risk is that any Labour government will end up buffeted by events and, to coin a phrase, in office rather than in power.
The reason I mentioned events, though, was because I was thinking of what the Tories could do to change the narrative in their favour. Not a huge amount, barring the Budget, really.0 -
Oddly, though, the Conservatives are the most trusted party on Europe:TCPoliticalBetting said:
Cameron/Hague/Osborne had no plan for Europe. Hague is particularly bad at this. Finding themselves in a coalition gave them another excuse to do little. It was their backbenchers through a series of votes that forced them to make the referendum promise and to both delay it into 2017 and link it to a "re-negotiation" in the hope that they could persuade enough of the EC countries to give enough concessions that made staying in saleable. Quite a high risk strategy. Now if instead they had a plan at the start they could have given the same referendum promise AND kept more of their support with them and not lost those to UKIP. This may even cost the Conservatives a majority at this election. Just because they had no plan for handling the Europe matter.MP_SE said:
He must realise that he has a reasonable chance of getting re-elected and anything short of a substantial renegotiation package will require him attempting to hold a referendum. As a committed Europhile he is setting himself up for failure, he will either come back with a poor package and attempt to pass it off as something which it is not or he will have to face defeat and campaign for a referendum. If he is going to barely put any effort into it, the whole referendum issue could have been dealt with this parliament.TCPoliticalBetting said:
The less Cameron demands the weaker the case for staying in the EC is and the greater the chance we leave after a referendum. (As per Dan Hannon view on life).Socrates said:
Ah, this might explain why he's dropped all his difficult demands to the EU - he's angling for a plush role there for his semi-retirement.SandyRentool said:
Ambassador to Washington?Artist said:I wonder what Cameron will do if he does lose, he's still only 48. It's a bit early for him to be retiring from politics, but I can't imagine him on the backbenches.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B8YQEUpCcAA-5gr.png
0 -
The election is a referendum on the referendum on EU membership. If you want one vote Tory, if you don't vote for any of the others who can't and won't offer you a referendum.
The only people left out there are those who want out but are too scared to make their case in a 2017 referendum0 -
That irrelevant old chestnut. In 2010 Cameron was trying to win from a position of the outgoing government having a 50 seat majority. He managed the 2nd highest number of seat gains in decades. Both Thatcher and Blair won against outgoing minority governments.surbiton said:
In 2001 you [ Tories ] won 164 seats. In 2010, you won 307 seats. If you could not win in 2010, you are unlikely to win now. Tooting was, after all, one of the few seats where the Labour vote actually went up.audreyanne said:
Haha, I asked for thatCasino_Royale said:
Last time I checked. Thank you.audreyanne said:FPT
Thanks Casino_Royale that's much appreciated. You are a gentleman (if you're male?!).Casino_Royale said:@AudreyAnne - good on you for posting the reasoning behind your predictions.
On a betting site that's important: it allows us to debate and test those assumptions, and discuss the reasoning, so we're all as informed as we can be when assessing the possible spread of results, and to place bets accordingly.
Whilst I don't agree with your conclusions, and would question the evidence behind most of your assumptions, I respect you for posting them.
Are you a lady yourself? Yes the last time I checked! I like Mrs Doubtfire as an avatar because she is enigmatic. But, yes, I'm peering over my breasts as I write. Tmi!
I didn't actually mention Tooting, but I don't disagree about it being Labour this time. Probably. However, however, however … that constituency is very interesting. I know it very well, as in up-to-date and in-depth. There are significant changes there that make the profile much less safe Labour than you would think considering the strong Asian community and the Sadik Khan factor. In fact if I was going to buy again in London, Tooting is one area I would snap up, and not just to the north which has changed so much. (Earlsfield has a distinctly middle class air to it these days.) But also south, even around Tooting Bec. Look at the rising Conservative share of the vote:surbiton said:audreyanne said:The cost of coalition: how the LibDems will hand the Conservatives victory 2/3
20 of the following 25 to go from yellow to blue
2/3
Tooting will be even safer Labour this time.
2001 26.4%
2005 30.2%
2010 38.5%
Majority 2,524
You're a brave man to say it will go more safely Labour.0 -
Especially if he goes for it in a one on one debateNeil said:
You've followed the polling and you are still amused that Labour are going to major on the NHS? Ok.JonnyJimmy said:
Yes. There have been times when Dave has been pretty close to Ed/Gord on polling for that. His party are always behind but he sometimes has to get personal.Neil said:
Have you not been following the polling on this?JonnyJimmy said:
I'm quite amused that weird ed has decided to make the NHS his focus at this election.0 -
Twanking on Twitter really is annoying - Mensch is one of the worse BUT for me...
Polly blinking Toynbee retweets followers supporting her guardian rants and so thus links to her article again.... it's just as well only 20 or so people twank her but it comes across as desperate traffic generation for her pieces to me!
Perhaps her contract is up for renewal?0 -
Still no polls today have shown the Tories in the lead.... good news for the reds!
Unlike in W London it would seem.0 -
Wow !!! I'm good.0
-
Well you, at least, are in for a rib-tickling 100 days.JonnyJimmy said:
Especially if he goes for it in a one on one debateNeil said:
You've followed the polling and you are still amused that Labour are going to major on the NHS? Ok.JonnyJimmy said:
Yes. There have been times when Dave has been pretty close to Ed/Gord on polling for that. His party are always behind but he sometimes has to get personal.Neil said:
Have you not been following the polling on this?JonnyJimmy said:
I'm quite amused that weird ed has decided to make the NHS his focus at this election.
0 -
So how come that doesn't come across when he speaks in public?surbiton said:Ed Miliband is a charming person and very witty. I can say that from personal knowledge.
Ken Clarke is charming and witty, and has fans on both sides of the political divide. Robin Cook and Mo Mowlam both had it too, so it's not a right versus left thing.
Miliband on the other hand bores the arse off most people, and speaks in the most inane of platitudes. That he also sounds and looks a bit odd doesn't help.0 -
In deference to clarity I will be making future posts that are intended as sarcasm in italics, the most sarcastic of font choices0
-
Off the top of my head, the delay between requesting a GP appointment and seeing a GP has now exceeded three weeks and that length is a cause for concern. This is the cause of the upswing in A&E attendance, as sick people who can't get to a GP attend the A&E instead. I don't know what the cure to this problem is, and I don't know which of the parties have the solution. But it is a genuine problem.JonnyJimmy said:Except.. What's gone wrong that can be blamed on the huge top down reorganisation that's said to have happened? Other than the slightly longer waiting times for people that shouldn't have gone to a&e in the first place I haven't heard a lot about terrible NHS outcomes in recent times.
0 -
UKIP came second in the last three council by elections with 30-35%, the tories won all three albeit with reduced share.Sean_F said:
It is Fenland, so UKIP should come second, but I doubt if it's in danger.NickPalmer said:
The separate question on Cameron suggests a Tory poll. But if they're worried about NE Cambs (lead last time 31%) they're REALLY worried!Gaius said:O/T Just been polled by Populus.
Via LL, wanted respondents aged 18-44 in my constituency (NE Cambs).
Prompted for UKIP, then prompted for my constituency.
Asked how I rated Cameron as PM, then asked to compare with Milliband.
The tories can't be THAT worried, surely?
0 -
The present day Tories can never win an outright majority as long as they are essentially two parties. European and the other not. If the Tories do not win [ I mean cannot form a coalition ], they could actually break up.Easterross said:
That irrelevant old chestnut. In 2010 Cameron was trying to win from a position of the outgoing government having a 50 seat majority. He managed the 2nd highest number of seat gains in decades. Both Thatcher and Blair won against outgoing minority governments.surbiton said:
In 2001 you [ Tories ] won 164 seats. In 2010, you won 307 seats. If you could not win in 2010, you are unlikely to win now. Tooting was, after all, one of the few seats where the Labour vote actually went up.audreyanne said:
Haha, I asked for thatCasino_Royale said:
Last time I checked. Thank you.audreyanne said:FPT
Thanks Casino_Royale that's much appreciated. You are a gentleman (if you're male?!).Casino_Royale said:@AudreyAnne - good on you for posting the reasoning behind your predictions.
On a betting site that's important: it allows us to debate and test those assumptions, and discuss the reasoning, so we're all as informed as we can be when assessing the possible spread of results, and to place bets accordingly.
Whilst I don't agree with your conclusions, and would question the evidence behind most of your assumptions, I respect you for posting them.
Are you a lady yourself? Yes the last time I checked! I like Mrs Doubtfire as an avatar because she is enigmatic. But, yes, I'm peering over my breasts as I write. Tmi!
I didn't actually mention Tooting, but I don't disagree about it being Labour this time. Probably. However, however, however … that constituency is very interesting. I know it very well, as in up-to-date and in-depth. There are significant changes there that make the profile much less safe Labour than you would think considering the strong Asian community and the Sadik Khan factor. In fact if I was going to buy again in London, Tooting is one area I would snap up, and not just to the north which has changed so much. (Earlsfield has a distinctly middle class air to it these days.) But also south, even around Tooting Bec. Look at the rising Conservative share of the vote:surbiton said:audreyanne said:The cost of coalition: how the LibDems will hand the Conservatives victory 2/3
20 of the following 25 to go from yellow to blue
2/3
Tooting will be even safer Labour this time.
2001 26.4%
2005 30.2%
2010 38.5%
Majority 2,524
You're a brave man to say it will go more safely Labour.0 -
I'm not sure I'm ready for it. Miliband makes me laugh even more than Brown and Kinnock did. He's brilliant entertainmentNeil said:
Well you, at least, are in for a rib-tickling 100 days.JonnyJimmy said:
Especially if he goes for it in a one on one debateNeil said:
You've followed the polling and you are still amused that Labour are going to major on the NHS? Ok.JonnyJimmy said:
Yes. There have been times when Dave has been pretty close to Ed/Gord on polling for that. His party are always behind but he sometimes has to get personal.Neil said:
Have you not been following the polling on this?JonnyJimmy said:
I'm quite amused that weird ed has decided to make the NHS his focus at this election.
Not even the thick of it parodied an interview as badly as ed did that one about the strikes. Do I need to link to it again?0 -
The solution is to undo Labour's GP contracts disaster. But nobody appears to be prepared to grasp that nettle.viewcode said:
Off the top of my head, the delay between requesting a GP appointment and seeing a GP has now exceeded three weeks and that length is a cause for concern. This is the cause of the upswing in A&E attendance, as sick people who can't get to a GP attend the A&E instead. I don't know what the cure to this problem is, and I don't know which of the parties have the solution. But it is a genuine problem.JonnyJimmy said:Except.. What's gone wrong that can be blamed on the huge top down reorganisation that's said to have happened? Other than the slightly longer waiting times for people that shouldn't have gone to a&e in the first place I haven't heard a lot about terrible NHS outcomes in recent times.
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This "too scared" thing is getting annoying. Why shouldn't people pick their fights (as Cameron is blatantly doing in the debates debate)? Look at the Indy ref and explain what guarantee there is that in 2017 Cameron won't orchestrate a tri party Vow of free owls for everyone in perpetuity provided the result is In, if he feels things aren't going his way?JonnyJimmy said:The election is a referendum on the referendum on EU membership. If you want one vote Tory, if you don't vote for any of the others who can't and won't offer you a referendum.
The only people left out there are those who want out but are too scared to make their case in a 2017 referendum0 -
"Labour election chaos over the NHS" front page headline tonight...
Now that is some achievement for their comfort zone.
[caveat - it's the telegraph]0 -
Depends what you mean by serious. Contrary to the 'shot down near Diego Garcia' theory here, it has been suggested the plane was captured by the US and taken to Diego Garcia -this is due to an iPhone message purportedly from one of the passengers with 'xif' data showing it to have come from Diego Garcia. However, this xif data can apparently be faked with a third party app.MikeK said:MH370 shot down by US, says former airline CEO
Read more: http://www.theweek.co.uk/world-news/flight-mh370/57641/mh370-details-of-who-was-on-missing-plane-are-being-withheld-says#ixzz3Q3PdbYuc
This is a new one on me. How serious is this?
Don't ask me why they would do this! However, if they have, it's on British territory, so we're up to our necks in Uncle Sams dirty business (tell us something new).0 -
Good points, thank youGeoffM said:
The solution is to undo Labour's GP contracts disaster. But nobody appears to be prepared to grasp that nettle.viewcode said:
Off the top of my head, the delay between requesting a GP appointment and seeing a GP has now exceeded three weeks and that length is a cause for concern. This is the cause of the upswing in A&E attendance, as sick people who can't get to a GP attend the A&E instead. I don't know what the cure to this problem is, and I don't know which of the parties have the solution. But it is a genuine problem.JonnyJimmy said:Except.. What's gone wrong that can be blamed on the huge top down reorganisation that's said to have happened? Other than the slightly longer waiting times for people that shouldn't have gone to a&e in the first place I haven't heard a lot about terrible NHS outcomes in recent times.
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There are two ways of looking at that, which are positive for the Lib Dems.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Except that when the overall vote share falls as low as 11%, 10% or even 9%, local organisation cannot save many seats.MikeSmithson said:
Berwick's a seat I know well and the Ashcroft polling had the LD ahead amongst those expressing a preference Turnout weighting took it blue and the LD machine is strong. As I've argued before in the marginals self-certified turnout weighting is less relevant. The machines get the mosr marginal voter out to vote.Pulpstar said:
They'd better bloody gain Solihull !Sean_F said:
At the next election, I'd favour the Conservatives to gain Berwick, Somerton & Frome, Solihull, Portsmouth South, Mid-Dorset, and Chippenham.taffys said:They were also, deludedly, expecting a Tory landslide at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.
How do you know its a delusion? the election is still 100 days away. Judging on the poll figures and every real election since 2014, its a perfectly logical forecast to make, isn't it?
Surely the 'lib dems ground game / anti tory vote is strong' reasoning is far more illogical.
I'd be surprised if there's much of an anti tory vote in some of the Southern lib dem seats. Prosperous constituencies like Kingston and Surbiton have no such qualms, connected as they are to the economic powerhouse of London.
I think they have a real chance of gaining Brecon & Radnor, the three Cornish seats, North Devon, Torbay, Roxburgh, and West Aberdeenshire.
The key thing in many yellow defences is level of organisation. The Tories are generally weaker.
Firstly, you can argue that 10% of the National Vote is more than 3 million votes, which is plenty enough to save 30+ seats if those votes are in the right places.
Secondly, you can argue that the Lib Dem campaign will persuade enough reluctant former Lib Dem voters to vote Lib Dem at the election that they will out-perform their current relatively low poll ratings by a large margin.
I think those are both reasonable arguments. It might still not end up being enough, but I don't see any particularly convincing evidence to dismiss it.0 -
ARF! CAVEATASTIC!Scrapheap_as_was said:"Labour election chaos over the NHS" front page headline tonight...
Now that is some achievement for their comfort zone.
[caveat - it's the telegraph]0 -
If the 'too scared' thing is annoying, vote conservative and start making the case for out. It's the closest way to us leaving the eu, which I want.Ishmael_X said:
This "too scared" thing is getting annoying. Why shouldn't people pick their fights (as Cameron is blatantly doing in the debates debate)? Look at the Indy ref and explain what guarantee there is that in 2017 Cameron won't orchestrate a tri party Vow of free owls for everyone in perpetuity provided the result is In, if he feels things aren't going his way?JonnyJimmy said:The election is a referendum on the referendum on EU membership. If you want one vote Tory, if you don't vote for any of the others who can't and won't offer you a referendum.
The only people left out there are those who want out but are too scared to make their case in a 2017 referendum0 -
Aren't we facing a shortage of GPs?GeoffM said:
The solution is to undo Labour's GP contracts disaster. But nobody appears to be prepared to grasp that nettle.viewcode said:
Off the top of my head, the delay between requesting a GP appointment and seeing a GP has now exceeded three weeks and that length is a cause for concern. This is the cause of the upswing in A&E attendance, as sick people who can't get to a GP attend the A&E instead. I don't know what the cure to this problem is, and I don't know which of the parties have the solution. But it is a genuine problem.JonnyJimmy said:Except.. What's gone wrong that can be blamed on the huge top down reorganisation that's said to have happened? Other than the slightly longer waiting times for people that shouldn't have gone to a&e in the first place I haven't heard a lot about terrible NHS outcomes in recent times.
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The second is a better argument than the first. In each seat there will be a residue of Lib Dem voters even if they aren't actively pursued. So a fair bit of that hypothetical 10% will be wasted (as Lord Ashcroft's polls in Conservative/Labour marginals seems to confirm).OblitusSumMe said:
There are two ways of looking at that, which are positive for the Lib Dems.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Except that when the overall vote share falls as low as 11%, 10% or even 9%, local organisation cannot save many seats.MikeSmithson said:
Berwick's a seat I know well and the Ashcroft polling had the LD ahead amongst those expressing a preference Turnout weighting took it blue and the LD machine is strong. As I've argued before in the marginals self-certified turnout weighting is less relevant. The machines get the mosr marginal voter out to vote.Pulpstar said:
They'd better bloody gain Solihull !Sean_F said:
At the next election, I'd favour the Conservatives to gain Berwick, Somerton & Frome, Solihull, Portsmouth South, Mid-Dorset, and Chippenham.taffys said:They were also, deludedly, expecting a Tory landslide at the expense of the Liberal Democrats.
How do you know its a delusion? the election is still 100 days away. Judging on the poll figures and every real election since 2014, its a perfectly logical forecast to make, isn't it?
Surely the 'lib dems ground game / anti tory vote is strong' reasoning is far more illogical.
I'd be surprised if there's much of an anti tory vote in some of the Southern lib dem seats. Prosperous constituencies like Kingston and Surbiton have no such qualms, connected as they are to the economic powerhouse of London.
I think they have a real chance of gaining Brecon & Radnor, the three Cornish seats, North Devon, Torbay, Roxburgh, and West Aberdeenshire.
The key thing in many yellow defences is level of organisation. The Tories are generally weaker.
Firstly, you can argue that 10% of the National Vote is more than 3 million votes, which is plenty enough to save 30+ seats if those votes are in the right places.
Secondly, you can argue that the Lib Dem campaign will persuade enough reluctant former Lib Dem voters to vote Lib Dem at the election that they will out-perform their current relatively low poll ratings by a large margin.
I think those are both reasonable arguments. It might still not end up being enough, but I don't see any particularly convincing evidence to dismiss it.
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It's hard to believe it was a Liberal seat from 1972 to 1987.Gaius said:
UKIP came second in the last three council by elections with 30-35%, the tories won all three albeit with reduced share.Sean_F said:
It is Fenland, so UKIP should come second, but I doubt if it's in danger.NickPalmer said:
The separate question on Cameron suggests a Tory poll. But if they're worried about NE Cambs (lead last time 31%) they're REALLY worried!Gaius said:O/T Just been polled by Populus.
Via LL, wanted respondents aged 18-44 in my constituency (NE Cambs).
Prompted for UKIP, then prompted for my constituency.
Asked how I rated Cameron as PM, then asked to compare with Milliband.
The tories can't be THAT worried, surely?
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Thank God you are safe, we've been so worried about you. When you went all quiet last night it looked like MH370 all over again.compouter2 said:
ARF! CAVEATASTIC!Scrapheap_as_was said:"Labour election chaos over the NHS" front page headline tonight...
Now that is some achievement for their comfort zone.
[caveat - it's the telegraph]
You up to speed on yesterday's polling, or should we run through it with you?
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There are many reasons why the old contract needed replacing. The demands of working out of hours became unsustainable. The average GP took a pay cut in order to opt out of out of hours cover. Even with the current contract there is a crisis of GP recruitment with many posts unfilled.GeoffM said:
The solution is to undo Labour's GP contracts disaster. But nobody appears to be prepared to grasp that nettle.viewcode said:
Off the top of my head, the delay between requesting a GP appointment and seeing a GP has now exceeded three weeks and that length is a cause for concern. This is the cause of the upswing in A&E attendance, as sick people who can't get to a GP attend the A&E instead. I don't know what the cure to this problem is, and I don't know which of the parties have the solution. But it is a genuine problem.JonnyJimmy said:Except.. What's gone wrong that can be blamed on the huge top down reorganisation that's said to have happened? Other than the slightly longer waiting times for people that shouldn't have gone to a&e in the first place I haven't heard a lot about terrible NHS outcomes in recent times.
Getting graduates to want to work in General Practice is much more than about money, it is having a sustainable work-life balance.0 -
Or you could stretch yourself and try a more sophisticated form of repartee.Alistair said:In deference to clarity I will be making future posts that are intended as sarcasm in italics, the most sarcastic of font choices
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I mean, it's annoying in the abstract as an argumentative technique. I fully (almost) intend to vote conservative because I'm a lot more fussed about other issues than about the EU. I do not expect Cameron to play a straight and honourable game over 2017, though.JonnyJimmy said:
If the 'too scared' thing is annoying, vote conservative and start making the case for out. It's the closest way to us leaving the eu, which I want.Ishmael_X said:
This "too scared" thing is getting annoying. Why shouldn't people pick their fights (as Cameron is blatantly doing in the debates debate)? Look at the Indy ref and explain what guarantee there is that in 2017 Cameron won't orchestrate a tri party Vow of free owls for everyone in perpetuity provided the result is In, if he feels things aren't going his way?JonnyJimmy said:The election is a referendum on the referendum on EU membership. If you want one vote Tory, if you don't vote for any of the others who can't and won't offer you a referendum.
The only people left out there are those who want out but are too scared to make their case in a 2017 referendum
0 -
That's so yesterday.Ishmael_X said:
Thank God you are safe, we've been so worried about you. When you went all quiet last night it looked like MH370 all over again.compouter2 said:
ARF! CAVEATASTIC!Scrapheap_as_was said:"Labour election chaos over the NHS" front page headline tonight...
Now that is some achievement for their comfort zone.
[caveat - it's the telegraph]
You up to speed on yesterday's polling, or should we run through it with you?0
