Nearly three thefts a minute are being reported by shops amid a growing shoplifting epidemic, official figures show.
Shoplifting hit a record high of 530,643 offences reported to police in the year to March, a 20 per cent increase on the previous year’s total of 444,022.
The rate of shoplifting is nearly double the rate two decades ago, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This isn't a problem according to many on the left.
Really? Who on the left says it isn't a problem?
The left don't particularly like talking about it because they regard it as a classic right-wing / populist topic.
Nearly three thefts a minute are being reported by shops amid a growing shoplifting epidemic, official figures show.
Shoplifting hit a record high of 530,643 offences reported to police in the year to March, a 20 per cent increase on the previous year’s total of 444,022.
The rate of shoplifting is nearly double the rate two decades ago, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This isn't a problem according to many on the left.
Really? Who on the left says it isn't a problem?
The left don't particularly like talking about it because they regard it as a classic right-wing / populist topic.
Nearly three thefts a minute are being reported by shops amid a growing shoplifting epidemic, official figures show.
Shoplifting hit a record high of 530,643 offences reported to police in the year to March, a 20 per cent increase on the previous year’s total of 444,022.
The rate of shoplifting is nearly double the rate two decades ago, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This isn't a problem according to many on the left.
Really? Who on the left says it isn't a problem?
The left don't particularly like talking about it because they regard it as a classic right-wing / populist topic.
It was the Tories who stopped funding the police and courts, and failed to modernise either. And big business who have shifted from staffed tills you have to go through to automated checkouts that rely on the honesty of the customer instead to save a few quid.
Kemi should go full-on economics and insolvency, actually, because that's a chicken that could very easily home home to roost over the next 4 years.
Only the Tories would then be the only ones who'd have credibility on it.
Such a strategy might see her suddenly bounce up to 30%+ in a crisis.
Problem for Kemi is that a lot of the mess can be pinned on Hunt who created the mess with his 4p reduction in National Insurance.
Now it probably doesn't require much more than keeping Hunt and anyone else who can be blamed well away from the public gaze but it's something she needs to be aware of...
No it's not, Labour pushed spending up by £60bn per year. If they hadn't done that and gone on a gigantic spending binge there would be a current budget surplus and our debt yields would be appreciably lower. Rachel Reeves is Liz Truss in slow motion.
Sorry but what spending binge.
We have a set of payrises which are only attached to Labour because Rishi called the election between the independent pay review boards suggesting increases and Rishi having to pay or reject them
And some benefits cuts that were reversed. I'm struggling (and have struggled for a while) to see any spending that Labour has actually committed to - bar an overpriced but unavoidable nuclear power station and defence..
But equally I wasn't actually arguing anything beyond - if Kemi adopts your recommendation - best to keep as much of the 2022-24 cabinet away from the public as she can get away with.
Huge public sector pay rises, an extra £25bn of unfunded spending for the NHS, a huge rise in the benefits bill due to much higher inflation that they have caused with their idiotic tax increases.
It was literally there in black and white in October, Labour added £60bn per year to state spending and on average increased borrowing by £37bn per year because their tax rises didn't cover the full amount. I very clearly remember pointing out that this would end up becoming Liz Truss in slow motion as the markets have to digest a huge increase on gilt supply and now we are one adverse fiscal event away from a full on debt crisis, failed auctions and a BoE backstop at debt auctions.
Huge public pay rises which would have been announced in June if Rishi hadn't ran away from the decision but hey blame Labour - it would have been the same regardles..
I'm sorry there's no way that the Tories would have given into the unions like that. They were already resisting public sector pay increases why do you assume they'd suddenly just cave? They'd have lived with the strikes and banked the savings from not having to pay out strike days.
Because their voters are entirely reliant on the NHS. A strike there literally kills their voter base.
Nearly three thefts a minute are being reported by shops amid a growing shoplifting epidemic, official figures show.
Shoplifting hit a record high of 530,643 offences reported to police in the year to March, a 20 per cent increase on the previous year’s total of 444,022.
The rate of shoplifting is nearly double the rate two decades ago, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This isn't a problem according to many on the left.
Really? Who on the left says it isn't a problem?
The left don't particularly like talking about it because they regard it as a classic right-wing / populist topic.
Nearly three thefts a minute are being reported by shops amid a growing shoplifting epidemic, official figures show.
Shoplifting hit a record high of 530,643 offences reported to police in the year to March, a 20 per cent increase on the previous year’s total of 444,022.
The rate of shoplifting is nearly double the rate two decades ago, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This isn't a problem according to many on the left.
Really? Who on the left says it isn't a problem?
The left don't particularly like talking about it because they regard it as a classic right-wing / populist topic.
So who on the left said it isn't a problem?
You answered a question that I did not ask.
Not mainstream left.
But, you do encounter people who treat shoplifting as “sticking it to the man.”
Kemi should go full-on economics and insolvency, actually, because that's a chicken that could very easily home home to roost over the next 4 years.
Only the Tories would then be the only ones who'd have credibility on it.
Such a strategy might see her suddenly bounce up to 30%+ in a crisis.
Problem for Kemi is that a lot of the mess can be pinned on Hunt who created the mess with his 4p reduction in National Insurance.
Now it probably doesn't require much more than keeping Hunt and anyone else who can be blamed well away from the public gaze but it's something she needs to be aware of...
No it's not, Labour pushed spending up by £60bn per year. If they hadn't done that and gone on a gigantic spending binge there would be a current budget surplus and our debt yields would be appreciably lower. Rachel Reeves is Liz Truss in slow motion.
Sorry but what spending binge.
We have a set of payrises which are only attached to Labour because Rishi called the election between the independent pay review boards suggesting increases and Rishi having to pay or reject them
And some benefits cuts that were reversed. I'm struggling (and have struggled for a while) to see any spending that Labour has actually committed to - bar an overpriced but unavoidable nuclear power station and defence..
But equally I wasn't actually arguing anything beyond - if Kemi adopts your recommendation - best to keep as much of the 2022-24 cabinet away from the public as she can get away with.
Huge public sector pay rises, an extra £25bn of unfunded spending for the NHS, a huge rise in the benefits bill due to much higher inflation that they have caused with their idiotic tax increases.
It was literally there in black and white in October, Labour added £60bn per year to state spending and on average increased borrowing by £37bn per year because their tax rises didn't cover the full amount. I very clearly remember pointing out that this would end up becoming Liz Truss in slow motion as the markets have to digest a huge increase on gilt supply and now we are one adverse fiscal event away from a full on debt crisis, failed auctions and a BoE backstop at debt auctions.
Huge public pay rises which would have been announced in June if Rishi hadn't ran away from the decision but hey blame Labour - it would have been the same regardles..
I'm sorry there's no way that the Tories would have given into the unions like that. They were already resisting public sector pay increases why do you assume they'd suddenly just cave? They'd have lived with the strikes and banked the savings from not having to pay out strike days.
There were no savings. They were paying doctors £3k for a single shift to cover the strike days.
And I suspect there will be people being paid more than that this weekend..
Nearly three thefts a minute are being reported by shops amid a growing shoplifting epidemic, official figures show.
Shoplifting hit a record high of 530,643 offences reported to police in the year to March, a 20 per cent increase on the previous year’s total of 444,022.
The rate of shoplifting is nearly double the rate two decades ago, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This isn't a problem according to many on the left.
Really? Who on the left says it isn't a problem?
The left don't particularly like talking about it because they regard it as a classic right-wing / populist topic.
It was the Tories who stopped funding the police and courts, and failed to modernise either. And big business who have shifted from staffed tills you have to go through to automated checkouts that rely on the honesty of the customer instead to save a few quid.
Both the state and the shops have concluded that there's a fraction of crime they are prepared to tolerate. Roughly where the cost of dealing with it exceeds the cost of overlooking it.
It's terrible for society, but utterly rational on a spreadsheet.
Nearly three thefts a minute are being reported by shops amid a growing shoplifting epidemic, official figures show.
Shoplifting hit a record high of 530,643 offences reported to police in the year to March, a 20 per cent increase on the previous year’s total of 444,022.
The rate of shoplifting is nearly double the rate two decades ago, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This isn't a problem according to many on the left.
Self-service doesn't help the situation, of course. Especially when the till is sited right at the back of the shop.
Yet in Norway, when the road you are driving along comes to a fjord, so you drive on the ferry and go upstairs for a snack during the twenty minute crossing, they don't bother to staff their shipboard canteens any more. They just put all the cakes and sandwiches out, have a coffee machine at the end, and you go to the self checkout and tell the machine what you have taken, and pay.
I think this is a really pertinent anecdote that needs more analysis. Social norms and trust are really strong in Norway. Why is that not the case in the UK in some/many contexts?
In my view this is one of the central questions governments (or the think tanks behind them) ought to be asking.
All possible answers should be on the table, from the cultural impacts of large - scale immigration through to the alienating effects of modern capitalism.
Perhaps the answers to this could form the manifesto of Your Party?
My kids disowned me after my reaction to the first mid credits scene.
I’ve not bothered with the last few, since around Deadpool 3. Can you jump straight back in?
Bendy man, invisible force field girl, stone man and fire man guard world. Big bad man and his friend turn up. Science stuff and teamwork are employed. The world is [REDACTED] and everybody is [REDACTED]. Simples!
Nearly three thefts a minute are being reported by shops amid a growing shoplifting epidemic, official figures show.
Shoplifting hit a record high of 530,643 offences reported to police in the year to March, a 20 per cent increase on the previous year’s total of 444,022.
The rate of shoplifting is nearly double the rate two decades ago, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This isn't a problem according to many on the left.
Self-service doesn't help the situation, of course. Especially when the till is sited right at the back of the shop.
Yet in Norway, when the road you are driving along comes to a fjord, so you drive on the ferry and go upstairs for a snack during the twenty minute crossing, they don't bother to staff their shipboard canteens any more. They just put all the cakes and sandwiches out, have a coffee machine at the end, and you go to the self checkout and tell the machine what you have taken, and pay.
I think this is a really pertinent anecdote that needs more analysis. Social norms and trust are really strong in Norway. Why is that not the case in the UK in some/many contexts?
In my view this is one of the central questions governments (or the think tanks behind them) ought to be asking.
All possible answers should be on the table, from the cultural impacts of large - scale immigration through to the alienating effects of modern capitalism.
Perhaps the answers to this could form the manifesto of Your Party?
Norway has a greater portion of foreign born residents than the UK, of course. They're at 17% vs 16% in the UK. And in Norway, a staggering 6% of the population are refugees, against under 1% in the UK.
What they have done massively better than in the UK is integration of those from different cultures. They've worked incredibly hard to avoid ghettos, and to make sure that those that come have the skills to pay for themselves.
The contrast with next door Sweden, which is a total disaster zone, could not be more stark.
Nearly three thefts a minute are being reported by shops amid a growing shoplifting epidemic, official figures show.
Shoplifting hit a record high of 530,643 offences reported to police in the year to March, a 20 per cent increase on the previous year’s total of 444,022.
The rate of shoplifting is nearly double the rate two decades ago, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This isn't a problem according to many on the left.
Really? Who on the left says it isn't a problem?
The left don't particularly like talking about it because they regard it as a classic right-wing / populist topic.
It was the Tories who stopped funding the police and courts, and failed to modernise either. And big business who have shifted from staffed tills you have to go through to automated checkouts that rely on the honesty of the customer instead to save a few quid.
Both the state and the shops have concluded that there's a fraction of crime they are prepared to tolerate. Roughly where the cost of dealing with it exceeds the cost of overlooking it.
It's terrible for society, but utterly rational on a spreadsheet.
It is rational on a spreadsheet initially, but as human behaviour adapts to the new rules becomes more questionable and potentially costly.
Trump suddenly decides to visit the Fed in yet another desperate attempt at distraction from the files. Presidents usually stay away to help maintain its independence.
Nearly three thefts a minute are being reported by shops amid a growing shoplifting epidemic, official figures show.
Shoplifting hit a record high of 530,643 offences reported to police in the year to March, a 20 per cent increase on the previous year’s total of 444,022.
The rate of shoplifting is nearly double the rate two decades ago, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This isn't a problem according to many on the left.
Really? Who on the left says it isn't a problem?
The left don't particularly like talking about it because they regard it as a classic right-wing / populist topic.
It was the Tories who stopped funding the police and courts, and failed to modernise either. And big business who have shifted from staffed tills you have to go through to automated checkouts that rely on the honesty of the customer instead to save a few quid.
Both the state and the shops have concluded that there's a fraction of crime they are prepared to tolerate. Roughly where the cost of dealing with it exceeds the cost of overlooking it.
It's terrible for society, but utterly rational on a spreadsheet.
It is rational on a spreadsheet initially, but as human behaviour adapts to the new rules becomes more questionable and potentially costly.
Yup.
But leaving problems for the future to solve is what we're good at.
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
Nearly three thefts a minute are being reported by shops amid a growing shoplifting epidemic, official figures show.
Shoplifting hit a record high of 530,643 offences reported to police in the year to March, a 20 per cent increase on the previous year’s total of 444,022.
The rate of shoplifting is nearly double the rate two decades ago, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This isn't a problem according to many on the left.
Really? Who on the left says it isn't a problem?
The left don't particularly like talking about it because they regard it as a classic right-wing / populist topic.
It was the Tories who stopped funding the police and courts, and failed to modernise either. And big business who have shifted from staffed tills you have to go through to automated checkouts that rely on the honesty of the customer instead to save a few quid.
Both the state and the shops have concluded that there's a fraction of crime they are prepared to tolerate. Roughly where the cost of dealing with it exceeds the cost of overlooking it.
It's terrible for society, but utterly rational on a spreadsheet.
It is rational on a spreadsheet initially, but as human behaviour adapts to the new rules becomes more questionable and potentially costly.
Yup.
But leaving problems for the future to solve is what we're good at.
Witness the confidence the remaining Tories have in lets just cut stuff heavily. *
* (bar public sector tech salaries for people like them which we should increase)
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
Which is a shame because she had a lot of potential.
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 1h New Gallup Poll has Trump’s approval at 37%.
Disapproval at 58%.
-21 points underwater.
This is officially lower than his polling immediately after January 6th, 2021.
===
Maybe he wont try and force Supreme Court to a allow a third term run because he knows he would lose?
If I were the Democrats I would be pushing to repeal the 22nd Amendment, because that would setup a fabulous 2028 Presidential election: Donald Trump vs the young buck, Bill Clinton.
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
If she is serious about being a British Milei, is she going to freeze UK pensions despite inflation?
Spencer Hakimian @SpencerHakimian · 1h New Gallup Poll has Trump’s approval at 37%.
Disapproval at 58%.
-21 points underwater.
This is officially lower than his polling immediately after January 6th, 2021.
===
Maybe he wont try and force Supreme Court to a allow a third term run because he knows he would lose?
If I were the Democrats I would be pushing to repeal the 22nd Amendment, because that would setup a fabulous 2028 Presidential election: Donald Trump vs the young buck, Bill Clinton.
They could share stories about the good times they each had with their mutual buddy, Jeffrey Epstein.
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
If she is serious about being a British Milei, is she going to freeze UK pensions despite inflation?
She's not serious about anything. She's so out of her depth, she brought snorkel gear to a philosophy seminar.
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
If she is serious about being a British Milei, is she going to freeze UK pensions despite inflation?
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
If she is serious about being a British Milei, is she going to freeze UK pensions despite inflation?
She has said she would means test the triple lock
Apart from being gibberish, that is nothing like what Milei did.
Reform candidate in Worcestershire is challenging a tied election result because it was decided by the equivalent of a toss of a coin. Only problem is that's precisely one of the ways in which such tied elections are supposed to be decided.
"The defeated Reform UK candidate Elizabeth Williams has now launched legal action in the Election Court. Her petition, which can be read on the website of Wychavon council here (link), makes various allegations as to the conduct of the count and the drawing of lots and seeks a declaration that the election is void on the grounds that Robson was elected by an equivalent of a "toss of a coin". Given that this is what the rules expect in the event of a tied election, that ground seems somewhat hopeless. Williams also makes allegations of undue influence and corrupt behaviour against the Green Party candidate and her campaign team, who are specifically accused of behaviour which sounds suspiciously like acting as tellers at polling stations."
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
If she is serious about being a British Milei, is she going to freeze UK pensions despite inflation?
She has said she would means test the triple lock
Which means absolutely nothing - is she going to means test all the OAP pension or a part of it?
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
If she is serious about being a British Milei, is she going to freeze UK pensions despite inflation?
Beyond areas where Corbynite Independents already do well, I can't see the new party getting that much traction with FPTP.
If we had PR like Germany they might gain more traction and seats as Linke have. In France Melenchon's party effectively has formed a combined block with the Socialist Party under their second ballot system
If it takes a thousand votes from Labour in every Labour constituency it returns right wing MPs and a right wing government.
Mission accomplished.
Thus ridding us of the most malign British Government of my lifetime. Good.
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
If she is serious about being a British Milei, is she going to freeze UK pensions despite inflation?
She has said she would means test the triple lock
Which means absolutely nothing - is she going to means test all the OAP pension or a part of it?
And how much would that cost too ?
Sounds like something she blurted out without any thought,
Reform candidate in Worcestershire is challenging a tied election result because it was decided by the equivalent of a toss of a coin. Only problem is that's precisely one of the ways in which such tied elections are supposed to be decided.
"The defeated Reform UK candidate Elizabeth Williams has now launched legal action in the Election Court. Her petition, which can be read on the website of Wychavon council here (link), makes various allegations as to the conduct of the count and the drawing of lots and seeks a declaration that the election is void on the grounds that Robson was elected by an equivalent of a "toss of a coin". Given that this is what the rules expect in the event of a tied election, that ground seems somewhat hopeless. Williams also makes allegations of undue influence and corrupt behaviour against the Green Party candidate and her campaign team, who are specifically accused of behaviour which sounds suspiciously like acting as tellers at polling stations."
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
I think her policies on spending cuts and leaving the ECHR are near identical to what Jenrick would propose anyway. Jenrick's time may come if Farage loses the next general election as the man who can reunite the right but he won't win back Reform voters trying to out anti woke or anti immigration Farage anymore than Kemi has. Stride could at least have gravitas on the economy to win back 2024 Sunak Tory voters who have gone to Reform.
Find Out Now also has Reform at least 5% higher than other polls
The 2010 Tory message was Britain is broke, it needs us to fix it after 13 years of Labour.
It worked.
But I don't know about "Britain is broke, it needs us to fix it after 5 years of Labour and 14 years of us".
I don't take Reform seriously because they are not serious about the hard choices involved in the economics of tax, spend, debt and deficit, while pretending to be the new kids who will be different.
The trouble is it is currently impossible to take Labour or Tories seriously either for the same reasons. Their joint determination to take the line of least resistance (Labour by carrying on the debt, deficit, spend spiral; Tories by saying they will decrease the state but not saying a single instance of how and where) is disastrous.
By the 2029 General Election it is quite possible that some black swan will have gone off pop and realism will have broken in. Otherwise, by 2029 I think lots of people will know that unless those standing have a serious plan about the hard choices, there is no point in voting for anyone.
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
I think her policies on spending cuts and leaving the ECHR are near identical to what Jenrick would propose anyway. Jenrick's time may come if Farage loses the next general election as the man who can reunite the right but he won't win back Reform voters trying to out anti woke or anti immigration Farage anymore than Kemi has. Stride could at least have gravitas on the economy to win back 2024 Sunak Tory voters who have gone to Reform.
Find Out Now also has Reform at least 5% higher than other polls
The Tories are not trusted on fiscal prudence, size of the state or immigration. It’s going to be slog to win trust back on those things. The failure of Farage’s project in office most likely.
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
If she is serious about being a British Milei, is she going to freeze UK pensions despite inflation?
Doesn't Milei want Britain to hand over the Malvin... er, I mean Falklands?
I’m watching Children of Men for the first time. Wanted something cheerful and uplifting. Hear it’s a blast
It's actually very good. One of the few films where I've saw the trailer at the time and not been disappointed by what I ultimately saw. Though not so cheery.
Beyond areas where Corbynite Independents already do well, I can't see the new party getting that much traction with FPTP.
If we had PR like Germany they might gain more traction and seats as Linke have. In France Melenchon's party effectively has formed a combined block with the Socialist Party under their second ballot system
If it takes a thousand votes from Labour in every Labour constituency it returns right wing MPs and a right wing government.
Mission accomplished.
Fortunately for Labour the right is also divided between the Tories and Reform, with mo major party polling consistently even over 30%
Reform seem to have pulled away from the Tories which puts them very much in the driving seat . Corbyn will merely adjust the driving seat to make it even more comfortable for them.
The man is an enigma. A self proclaimed champion of the underdog who inadvertently keeps the underdog on his knees.
For now, if Kemi's new axe spending and leave the ECHR policies don't win back Tory voters from Reform she will likely be replaced by Jenrick or Stride who might start to do so
So Kemi, who defended keeping the WFA for wealthy pensioners, and the IHT tax relief for wealthy farmers, wants to hack spending? I am not convinced.
Cutting back public spending enables government to keep IHT tax relief for family farms
Kemi should go full-on economics and insolvency, actually, because that's a chicken that could very easily home home to roost over the next 4 years.
Only the Tories would then be the only ones who'd have credibility on it.
Such a strategy might see her suddenly bounce up to 30%+ in a crisis.
Problem for Kemi is that a lot of the mess can be pinned on Hunt who created the mess with his 4p reduction in National Insurance.
Now it probably doesn't require much more than keeping Hunt and anyone else who can be blamed well away from the public gaze but it's something she needs to be aware of...
No it's not, Labour pushed spending up by £60bn per year. If they hadn't done that and gone on a gigantic spending binge there would be a current budget surplus and our debt yields would be appreciably lower. Rachel Reeves is Liz Truss in slow motion.
Sorry but what spending binge.
We have a set of payrises which are only attached to Labour because Rishi called the election between the independent pay review boards suggesting increases and Rishi having to pay or reject them
And some benefits cuts that were reversed. I'm struggling (and have struggled for a while) to see any spending that Labour has actually committed to - bar an overpriced but unavoidable nuclear power station and defence..
But equally I wasn't actually arguing anything beyond - if Kemi adopts your recommendation - best to keep as much of the 2022-24 cabinet away from the public as she can get away with.
Huge public sector pay rises, an extra £25bn of unfunded spending for the NHS, a huge rise in the benefits bill due to much higher inflation that they have caused with their idiotic tax increases.
It was literally there in black and white in October, Labour added £60bn per year to state spending and on average increased borrowing by £37bn per year because their tax rises didn't cover the full amount. I very clearly remember pointing out that this would end up becoming Liz Truss in slow motion as the markets have to digest a huge increase on gilt supply and now we are one adverse fiscal event away from a full on debt crisis, failed auctions and a BoE backstop at debt auctions.
Huge public pay rises which would have been announced in June if Rishi hadn't ran away from the decision but hey blame Labour - it would have been the same regardles..
I'm sorry there's no way that the Tories would have given into the unions like that. They were already resisting public sector pay increases why do you assume they'd suddenly just cave? They'd have lived with the strikes and banked the savings from not having to pay out strike days.
There were no savings. They were paying doctors £3k for a single shift to cover the strike days.
And I suspect there will be people being paid more than that this weekend..
£200+ an hour for consultants in the NE I understand.
Doesn’t seem all that much when you consider partners in law firms in the North are charged out at £600+ an hour.
Beyond areas where Corbynite Independents already do well, I can't see the new party getting that much traction with FPTP.
If we had PR like Germany they might gain more traction and seats as Linke have. In France Melenchon's party effectively has formed a combined block with the Socialist Party under their second ballot system
If it takes a thousand votes from Labour in every Labour constituency it returns right wing MPs and a right wing government.
Mission accomplished.
Fortunately for Labour the right is also divided between the Tories and Reform, with mo major party polling consistently even over 30%
Reform seem to have pulled away from the Tories which puts them very much in the driving seat . Corbyn will merely adjust the driving seat to make it even more comfortable for them.
The man is an enigma. A self proclaimed champion of the underdog who inadvertently keeps the underdog on his knees.
For now, if Kemi's new axe spending and leave the ECHR policies don't win back Tory voters from Reform she will likely be replaced by Jenrick or Stride who might start to do so
So Kemi, who defended keeping the WFA for wealthy pensioners, and the IHT tax relief for wealthy farmers, wants to hack spending? I am not convinced.
Cutting back public spending enables government to keep IHT tax relief for family farms
Kemi should go full-on economics and insolvency, actually, because that's a chicken that could very easily home home to roost over the next 4 years.
Only the Tories would then be the only ones who'd have credibility on it.
Such a strategy might see her suddenly bounce up to 30%+ in a crisis.
Problem for Kemi is that a lot of the mess can be pinned on Hunt who created the mess with his 4p reduction in National Insurance.
Now it probably doesn't require much more than keeping Hunt and anyone else who can be blamed well away from the public gaze but it's something she needs to be aware of...
No it's not, Labour pushed spending up by £60bn per year. If they hadn't done that and gone on a gigantic spending binge there would be a current budget surplus and our debt yields would be appreciably lower. Rachel Reeves is Liz Truss in slow motion.
Sorry but what spending binge.
We have a set of payrises which are only attached to Labour because Rishi called the election between the independent pay review boards suggesting increases and Rishi having to pay or reject them
And some benefits cuts that were reversed. I'm struggling (and have struggled for a while) to see any spending that Labour has actually committed to - bar an overpriced but unavoidable nuclear power station and defence..
But equally I wasn't actually arguing anything beyond - if Kemi adopts your recommendation - best to keep as much of the 2022-24 cabinet away from the public as she can get away with.
Huge public sector pay rises, an extra £25bn of unfunded spending for the NHS, a huge rise in the benefits bill due to much higher inflation that they have caused with their idiotic tax increases.
It was literally there in black and white in October, Labour added £60bn per year to state spending and on average increased borrowing by £37bn per year because their tax rises didn't cover the full amount. I very clearly remember pointing out that this would end up becoming Liz Truss in slow motion as the markets have to digest a huge increase on gilt supply and now we are one adverse fiscal event away from a full on debt crisis, failed auctions and a BoE backstop at debt auctions.
Huge public pay rises which would have been announced in June if Rishi hadn't ran away from the decision but hey blame Labour - it would have been the same regardles..
I'm sorry there's no way that the Tories would have given into the unions like that. They were already resisting public sector pay increases why do you assume they'd suddenly just cave? They'd have lived with the strikes and banked the savings from not having to pay out strike days.
There were no savings. They were paying doctors £3k for a single shift to cover the strike days.
And I suspect there will be people being paid more than that this weekend..
£200+ an hour for consultants in the NE I understand.
Doesn’t seem all that much when you consider partners in law firms in the North are charged out at £600+ an hour.
But lawyers provide a more valuable service to humanity than doctors ever do.
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
If she is serious about being a British Milei, is she going to freeze UK pensions despite inflation?
Doesn't Milei want Britain to hand over the Malvin... er, I mean Falklands?
He is focused on the Argentine economy and wants a diplomatic solution for the Falklands
Nearly three thefts a minute are being reported by shops amid a growing shoplifting epidemic, official figures show.
Shoplifting hit a record high of 530,643 offences reported to police in the year to March, a 20 per cent increase on the previous year’s total of 444,022.
The rate of shoplifting is nearly double the rate two decades ago, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This isn't a problem according to many on the left.
Self-service doesn't help the situation, of course. Especially when the till is sited right at the back of the shop.
Yet in Norway, when the road you are driving along comes to a fjord, so you drive on the ferry and go upstairs for a snack during the twenty minute crossing, they don't bother to staff their shipboard canteens any more. They just put all the cakes and sandwiches out, have a coffee machine at the end, and you go to the self checkout and tell the machine what you have taken, and pay.
I think this is a really pertinent anecdote that needs more analysis. Social norms and trust are really strong in Norway. Why is that not the case in the UK in some/many contexts?
In my view this is one of the central questions governments (or the think tanks behind them) ought to be asking.
All possible answers should be on the table, from the cultural impacts of large - scale immigration through to the alienating effects of modern capitalism.
Perhaps the answers to this could form the manifesto of Your Party?
I'd love to think that Your Party would be capable of such thought, but the evidence of Corbyn's leadership of the Labour party was that he regarded any idea newer than four decades old as being anathema.
Beyond areas where Corbynite Independents already do well, I can't see the new party getting that much traction with FPTP.
If we had PR like Germany they might gain more traction and seats as Linke have. In France Melenchon's party effectively has formed a combined block with the Socialist Party under their second ballot system
If it takes a thousand votes from Labour in every Labour constituency it returns right wing MPs and a right wing government.
Mission accomplished.
Fortunately for Labour the right is also divided between the Tories and Reform, with mo major party polling consistently even over 30%
Reform seem to have pulled away from the Tories which puts them very much in the driving seat . Corbyn will merely adjust the driving seat to make it even more comfortable for them.
The man is an enigma. A self proclaimed champion of the underdog who inadvertently keeps the underdog on his knees.
For now, if Kemi's new axe spending and leave the ECHR policies don't win back Tory voters from Reform she will likely be replaced by Jenrick or Stride who might start to do so
So Kemi, who defended keeping the WFA for wealthy pensioners, and the IHT tax relief for wealthy farmers, wants to hack spending? I am not convinced.
Cutting back public spending enables government to keep IHT tax relief for family farms
Lol
It is no laughing matter for some farmers who have even considered suicide to ensure their generations old family farm stays in their family and feeding the nation
I’m watching Children of Men for the first time. Wanted something cheerful and uplifting. Hear it’s a blast
Eerily prescient movie. Add in a few feral kids nicking the entire booze shelf of their local tesco and walking out unchecked, and the first half of the film looks a lot like where we are today.
Beyond areas where Corbynite Independents already do well, I can't see the new party getting that much traction with FPTP.
If we had PR like Germany they might gain more traction and seats as Linke have. In France Melenchon's party effectively has formed a combined block with the Socialist Party under their second ballot system
If it takes a thousand votes from Labour in every Labour constituency it returns right wing MPs and a right wing government.
Mission accomplished.
Thus ridding us of the most malign British Government of my lifetime. Good.
No that was your 49 day administration.
Incompetence (which Sir's lot are also a dab hand it) is very different from being actively malign. Truss's administration wasn't competent - a competent Government would land a budget. But it wasn't malign - it wanted to turn the country around, not bury it in foreign liabilities or menace it with attacks on freedom of speech and thought.
Beyond areas where Corbynite Independents already do well, I can't see the new party getting that much traction with FPTP.
If we had PR like Germany they might gain more traction and seats as Linke have. In France Melenchon's party effectively has formed a combined block with the Socialist Party under their second ballot system
If it takes a thousand votes from Labour in every Labour constituency it returns right wing MPs and a right wing government.
Mission accomplished.
Fortunately for Labour the right is also divided between the Tories and Reform, with mo major party polling consistently even over 30%
Reform seem to have pulled away from the Tories which puts them very much in the driving seat . Corbyn will merely adjust the driving seat to make it even more comfortable for them.
The man is an enigma. A self proclaimed champion of the underdog who inadvertently keeps the underdog on his knees.
For now, if Kemi's new axe spending and leave the ECHR policies don't win back Tory voters from Reform she will likely be replaced by Jenrick or Stride who might start to do so
So Kemi, who defended keeping the WFA for wealthy pensioners, and the IHT tax relief for wealthy farmers, wants to hack spending? I am not convinced.
Cutting back public spending enables government to keep IHT tax relief for family farms
Lol
It is no laughing matter for some farmers who have even considered suicide to ensure their generations old family farm stays in their family and feeding the nation
Sadly, people like Jeremy Clarkson (and my former boss) used it as a tax dodge. @Malmesbury has the best compromise: sure you can avoid inheritance tax, but if you sell the farm, then it becomes due. Because right now, it's roundly abused. And that very abuse has pushed prices of agricultural land and farm to ridiculous values, making the issue of inheritance tax much more severe than preivously.
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
I think her policies on spending cuts and leaving the ECHR are near identical to what Jenrick would propose anyway. Jenrick's time may come if Farage loses the next general election as the man who can reunite the right but he won't win back Reform voters trying to out anti woke or anti immigration Farage anymore than Kemi has. Stride could at least have gravitas on the economy to win back 2024 Sunak Tory voters who have gone to Reform.
Find Out Now also has Reform at least 5% higher than other polls
The Tories are not trusted on fiscal prudence, size of the state or immigration. It’s going to be slog to win trust back on those things. The failure of Farage’s project in office most likely.
Polls have now started to show in retrospect voters preferred Sunak and Hunt to Starmer and Reeves on the economy. Net immigration to the UK is also falling due to the tighter visa wage requirements Sunak brought in with Cleverly
Beyond areas where Corbynite Independents already do well, I can't see the new party getting that much traction with FPTP.
If we had PR like Germany they might gain more traction and seats as Linke have. In France Melenchon's party effectively has formed a combined block with the Socialist Party under their second ballot system
If it takes a thousand votes from Labour in every Labour constituency it returns right wing MPs and a right wing government.
Mission accomplished.
Thus ridding us of the most malign British Government of my lifetime. Good.
No that was your 49 day administration.
Incompetence (which Sir's lot are also a dab hand it) is very different from being actively malign. Truss's administration wasn't competent - a competent Government would land a budget. But it wasn't malign - it wanted to turn the country around, not bury it in foreign liabilities or menace it with attacks on freedom of speech and thought.
It was malign, it introduced tax cuts while not doing anything to cut spending - which is very Trumpion
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
If she is serious about being a British Milei, is she going to freeze UK pensions despite inflation?
Doesn't Milei want Britain to hand over the Malvin... er, I mean Falklands?
He is focused on the Argentine economy and wants a diplomatic solution for the Falklands
That's a huge opportunity. Partner with Argentina, bury the past, and get the oil out. Build them a new Falklands to call The Malvinas if that makes them happy. If we don't do it, someone else probably already has their eyes on it.
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
If she is serious about being a British Milei, is she going to freeze UK pensions despite inflation?
Doesn't Milei want Britain to hand over the Malvin... er, I mean Falklands?
He is focused on the Argentine economy and wants a diplomatic solution for the Falklands
Beyond areas where Corbynite Independents already do well, I can't see the new party getting that much traction with FPTP.
If we had PR like Germany they might gain more traction and seats as Linke have. In France Melenchon's party effectively has formed a combined block with the Socialist Party under their second ballot system
If it takes a thousand votes from Labour in every Labour constituency it returns right wing MPs and a right wing government.
Mission accomplished.
Thus ridding us of the most malign British Government of my lifetime. Good.
No that was your 49 day administration.
Incompetence (which Sir's lot are also a dab hand it) is very different from being actively malign. Truss's administration wasn't competent - a competent Government would land a budget. But it wasn't malign - it wanted to turn the country around, not bury it in foreign liabilities or menace it with attacks on freedom of speech and thought.
It was malign, it introduced tax cuts while not doing anything to cut spending - which is very Trumpion
Tax cuts were very minimal. By far the biggest 'unfunded spurge' in the mini-budget was the energy price guarantee, but nobody ever cites it because it doesn't suit the ideological axe they're trying to grind.
A group of far-right Israeli politicians and settlers met in parliament this week to discuss a plan to displace Palestinians from Gaza, annex the territory and turn it into a hi-tech, luxury resort city for Israelis.
The scheme, titled “The master plan for settlement in the Gaza Strip”, envisions the construction of 850,000 housing units, construction of hi-tech “smart cities” that trade cryptocurrency, and a metro system that runs across the territory. It took its inspiration from an idea shared by the US president, Donald Trump, in February, when he pledged to turn Gaza into the “riviera of the Middle East”.
The text of the plan, which boasts of the economic benefits to Israel, said: “The right of the people of Israel to settle, develop and preserve this land is not just a historical right – it is a national and security obligation.”
Beyond areas where Corbynite Independents already do well, I can't see the new party getting that much traction with FPTP.
If we had PR like Germany they might gain more traction and seats as Linke have. In France Melenchon's party effectively has formed a combined block with the Socialist Party under their second ballot system
If it takes a thousand votes from Labour in every Labour constituency it returns right wing MPs and a right wing government.
Mission accomplished.
Fortunately for Labour the right is also divided between the Tories and Reform, with mo major party polling consistently even over 30%
Reform seem to have pulled away from the Tories which puts them very much in the driving seat . Corbyn will merely adjust the driving seat to make it even more comfortable for them.
The man is an enigma. A self proclaimed champion of the underdog who inadvertently keeps the underdog on his knees.
For now, if Kemi's new axe spending and leave the ECHR policies don't win back Tory voters from Reform she will likely be replaced by Jenrick or Stride who might start to do so
So Kemi, who defended keeping the WFA for wealthy pensioners, and the IHT tax relief for wealthy farmers, wants to hack spending? I am not convinced.
Cutting back public spending enables government to keep IHT tax relief for family farms
Lol
It is no laughing matter for some farmers who have even considered suicide to ensure their generations old family farm stays in their family and feeding the nation
Surely if they commit suicide inheritance tax is due.
I’m watching Children of Men for the first time. Wanted something cheerful and uplifting. Hear it’s a blast
It's actually very good. One of the few films where I've saw the trailer at the time and not been disappointed by what I ultimately saw. Though not so cheery.
The book's good too, but is a little different.
A couple of friends “in the media” told me to watch it for its scarily prescient portrayal of London in total societal decline - the grot, graffiti, the exciting cultural diversity, the garbage - and the way it looks like london now
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
If she is serious about being a British Milei, is she going to freeze UK pensions despite inflation?
Doesn't Milei want Britain to hand over the Malvin... er, I mean Falklands?
He is focused on the Argentine economy and wants a diplomatic solution for the Falklands
That's a huge opportunity. Partner with Argentina, bury the past, and get the oil out. Build them a new Falklands to call The Malvinas if that makes them happy. If we don't do it, someone else probably already has their eyes on it.
The Sea Lion project was expected to get to FID in the next few months, but the prices Navitas and Rockhopper have seen have been a bit higher than they would have liked, and I hear that the decision may be delayed into 2026. It's a classic *almost* project: if the oil price was $80-85 then I have no doubt it would have been approved, but at $66, it's really marginal.
If it does get FID'ed (and if I had to bet, I would probably bet on them deferring it again), then it potentially opens up a lot of opportunity. Because once the infrastructure is in place, subsequent development becomes much cheaper. But that's a hard sell with the oil price where it is.
I’m watching Children of Men for the first time. Wanted something cheerful and uplifting. Hear it’s a blast
It's actually very good. One of the few films where I've saw the trailer at the time and not been disappointed by what I ultimately saw. Though not so cheery.
The book's good too, but is a little different.
A couple of friends “in the media” told me to watch it for its scarily prescient portrayal of London in total societal decline - the grot, graffiti, the exciting cultural diversity, the garbage - and the way it looks like london now
Beyond areas where Corbynite Independents already do well, I can't see the new party getting that much traction with FPTP.
If we had PR like Germany they might gain more traction and seats as Linke have. In France Melenchon's party effectively has formed a combined block with the Socialist Party under their second ballot system
If it takes a thousand votes from Labour in every Labour constituency it returns right wing MPs and a right wing government.
Mission accomplished.
Fortunately for Labour the right is also divided between the Tories and Reform, with mo major party polling consistently even over 30%
Reform seem to have pulled away from the Tories which puts them very much in the driving seat . Corbyn will merely adjust the driving seat to make it even more comfortable for them.
The man is an enigma. A self proclaimed champion of the underdog who inadvertently keeps the underdog on his knees.
For now, if Kemi's new axe spending and leave the ECHR policies don't win back Tory voters from Reform she will likely be replaced by Jenrick or Stride who might start to do so
So Kemi, who defended keeping the WFA for wealthy pensioners, and the IHT tax relief for wealthy farmers, wants to hack spending? I am not convinced.
Cutting back public spending enables government to keep IHT tax relief for family farms
Lol
It is no laughing matter for some farmers who have even considered suicide to ensure their generations old family farm stays in their family and feeding the nation
Suicide is not a good tactic. They need to gift the farm and live seven years. Someone should advise them.
Having barely recovered from another poster's grotesque ignorance of the important things in life, we have some polling on which to muse it would seem.
To be honest, though, you pays your money and you takes your choice. Find Out Now may be the new gold standard, they will be if you are a Reform supporter while More In Common is better if you are a Conservative.
The two blocs oscillate - Find Out Now and More In Common have Ref/Con on 50% but with YouGov only 44% with Lab, LD and Green on 49% (44% with FoN and 45% with MiC).
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
I think her policies on spending cuts and leaving the ECHR are near identical to what Jenrick would propose anyway. Jenrick's time may come if Farage loses the next general election as the man who can reunite the right but he won't win back Reform voters trying to out anti woke or anti immigration Farage anymore than Kemi has. Stride could at least have gravitas on the economy to win back 2024 Sunak Tory voters who have gone to Reform.
Find Out Now also has Reform at least 5% higher than other polls
It's nothing to do with politics, it's to do with visibility. Kemi is invisible, trapped in her bunker, ignored by all.
Strange. This poll Baxters to Reform 436 seats; Labour 78 seats.
William Hill's current odds for most seats at next GE: Reform 5/4; Labour 13/10.
Mirage? Betting opportunity?
A change in Tory leadership will change quite a lot probably.
‘Probably’ is doing quite a lot of work there.
If the Conservatives were to replace Badenoch with Jenrick, they'd have a chance. He's hard working, understands social media, and has a good eye for what'll get traction.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
I think her policies on spending cuts and leaving the ECHR are near identical to what Jenrick would propose anyway. Jenrick's time may come if Farage loses the next general election as the man who can reunite the right but he won't win back Reform voters trying to out anti woke or anti immigration Farage anymore than Kemi has. Stride could at least have gravitas on the economy to win back 2024 Sunak Tory voters who have gone to Reform.
Find Out Now also has Reform at least 5% higher than other polls
The Tories are not trusted on fiscal prudence, size of the state or immigration. It’s going to be slog to win trust back on those things. The failure of Farage’s project in office most likely.
Polls have now started to show in retrospect voters preferred Sunak and Hunt to Starmer and Reeves on the economy. Net immigration to the UK is also falling due to the tighter visa wage requirements Sunak brought in with Cleverly
You’re having a laff if you think the tories are going to win back voters who care about immigration after the last fortnight.
I’m watching Children of Men for the first time. Wanted something cheerful and uplifting. Hear it’s a blast
It's actually very good. One of the few films where I've saw the trailer at the time and not been disappointed by what I ultimately saw. Though not so cheery.
The book's good too, but is a little different.
One of my favourite films of all time. Very prescient. @Leon if it's not too late, watch for the one super long camera shot in the last 20 mins or so (complete with blood spattered lens) - spectacular cinematography.
The book I found very disappointing, but only I think because I was expecting the same story as the film.
Plenty of good coverage for the Conservatives in the Standard this evening - we only get the printed version once a week.
A full two page write up on the state of the Conservatives in London - apparently it's 50 villages in search of a town - which reads pretty well for Badenoch. Apparently, the tide is turning and fortunes are improving - today's by election in Bromley may be informative.
There's then a whole page dedicated to a piece by Conservative peer Ross Kempsell having a pop at Sadiq Khan about fare evasion - everyone seems to be channelling their inner Jenrick on this - as well as the usual Standard pieces about how terrible life is in London etc.
Beyond areas where Corbynite Independents already do well, I can't see the new party getting that much traction with FPTP.
If we had PR like Germany they might gain more traction and seats as Linke have. In France Melenchon's party effectively has formed a combined block with the Socialist Party under their second ballot system
If it takes a thousand votes from Labour in every Labour constituency it returns right wing MPs and a right wing government.
Mission accomplished.
Fortunately for Labour the right is also divided between the Tories and Reform, with mo major party polling consistently even over 30%
Reform seem to have pulled away from the Tories which puts them very much in the driving seat . Corbyn will merely adjust the driving seat to make it even more comfortable for them.
The man is an enigma. A self proclaimed champion of the underdog who inadvertently keeps the underdog on his knees.
For now, if Kemi's new axe spending and leave the ECHR policies don't win back Tory voters from Reform she will likely be replaced by Jenrick or Stride who might start to do so
So Kemi, who defended keeping the WFA for wealthy pensioners, and the IHT tax relief for wealthy farmers, wants to hack spending? I am not convinced.
Cutting back public spending enables government to keep IHT tax relief for family farms
Lol
It is no laughing matter for some farmers who have even considered suicide to ensure their generations old family farm stays in their family and feeding the nation
Suicide is not a good tactic. They need to gift the farm and live seven years. Someone should advise them.
EDIT Foxy got there first.
The change only comes into effect on 6th April 2026, so...
A group of far-right Israeli politicians and settlers met in parliament this week to discuss a plan to displace Palestinians from Gaza, annex the territory and turn it into a hi-tech, luxury resort city for Israelis.
The scheme, titled “The master plan for settlement in the Gaza Strip”, envisions the construction of 850,000 housing units, construction of hi-tech “smart cities” that trade cryptocurrency, and a metro system that runs across the territory. It took its inspiration from an idea shared by the US president, Donald Trump, in February, when he pledged to turn Gaza into the “riviera of the Middle East”.
The text of the plan, which boasts of the economic benefits to Israel, said: “The right of the people of Israel to settle, develop and preserve this land is not just a historical right – it is a national and security obligation.”
Corbyn's new Party must put ex Momentum members in a dilemma, do they leave the Greens and link up with Corbyn or do they back Polanski and push The Greens further Leftwards?
JC was great at getting the vote out for Labour, the trouble was he energised the Tory vote even more.
Corbyn's new Party must put ex Momentum members in a dilemma, do they leave the Greens and link up with Corbyn or do they back Polanski and push The Greens further Leftwards?
JC was great at getting the vote out for Labour, the trouble was he energised the Tory vote even more.
Surely they need to follow Jezbollah into whatever this new party is called.
Corbyn's new Party must put ex Momentum members in a dilemma, do they leave the Greens and link up with Corbyn or do they back Polanski and push The Greens further Leftwards?
JC was great at getting the vote out for Labour, the trouble was he energised the Tory vote even more.
Don't they know that you can be ill informed by far right Social Media from the comfort of a Primrose Hill flat, between nights out enjoying the balmy summer evenings of London's nightlife.
Nearly three thefts a minute are being reported by shops amid a growing shoplifting epidemic, official figures show.
Shoplifting hit a record high of 530,643 offences reported to police in the year to March, a 20 per cent increase on the previous year’s total of 444,022.
The rate of shoplifting is nearly double the rate two decades ago, according to the figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS)
This isn't a problem according to many on the left.
Really? Who on the left says it isn't a problem?
The left don't particularly like talking about it because they regard it as a classic right-wing / populist topic.
It was the Tories who stopped funding the police and courts, and failed to modernise either. And big business who have shifted from staffed tills you have to go through to automated checkouts that rely on the honesty of the customer instead to save a few quid.
Both the state and the shops have concluded that there's a fraction of crime they are prepared to tolerate. Roughly where the cost of dealing with it exceeds the cost of overlooking it.
It's terrible for society, but utterly rational on a spreadsheet.
It is rational on a spreadsheet initially, but as human behaviour adapts to the new rules becomes more questionable and potentially costly.
The thing to remember is that the cost of dealing with shoplifters has rocketed - see the gangs videoing the staff to see if they can claim assault.
Trained security who can manhandle the shoplifters will be expensive - pay and insurance.
There have been definite legal attacks on companies that try and use security like this - I’m aware of at least one case where a single law firm bought cases against multiple shops/workers in a chain, over confrontation with shop lifters.
Alternatively, you can use the methodology of my local mini Tesco. A cousin of the manager hangs around and bashes shoplifters. When taken to court, he doesn’t give a shit. And since he isn’t actually employed by the store, no comeback.
Corbyn's new Party must put ex Momentum members in a dilemma, do they leave the Greens and link up with Corbyn or do they back Polanski and push The Greens further Leftwards?
JC was great at getting the vote out for Labour, the trouble was he energised the Tory vote even more.
Surely they need to follow Jezbollah into whatever this new party is called.
I’m watching Children of Men for the first time. Wanted something cheerful and uplifting. Hear it’s a blast
It's actually very good. One of the few films where I've saw the trailer at the time and not been disappointed by what I ultimately saw. Though not so cheery.
The book's good too, but is a little different.
One of my favourite films of all time. Very prescient. @Leon if it's not too late, watch for the one super long camera shot in the last 20 mins or so (complete with blood spattered lens) - spectacular cinematography.
The book I found very disappointing, but only I think because I was expecting the same story as the film.
I saw it at the 'big screen' multiplex when it came out - full on HD Dolby THX1138 (yes) sound.
Boy, did it rip my soul out. Those final 20 minutes with that sound set-up just added to it. Pretty much physically feeling each gunshot and tank blast.
A group of far-right Israeli politicians and settlers met in parliament this week to discuss a plan to displace Palestinians from Gaza, annex the territory and turn it into a hi-tech, luxury resort city for Israelis.
The scheme, titled “The master plan for settlement in the Gaza Strip”, envisions the construction of 850,000 housing units, construction of hi-tech “smart cities” that trade cryptocurrency, and a metro system that runs across the territory. It took its inspiration from an idea shared by the US president, Donald Trump, in February, when he pledged to turn Gaza into the “riviera of the Middle East”.
The text of the plan, which boasts of the economic benefits to Israel, said: “The right of the people of Israel to settle, develop and preserve this land is not just a historical right – it is a national and security obligation.”
Comments
You answered a question that I did not ask.
But, you do encounter people who treat shoplifting as “sticking it to the man.”
My kids disowned me after my reaction to the first mid credits scene.
It's terrible for society, but utterly rational on a spreadsheet.
Spencer Hakimian
@SpencerHakimian
·
1h
New Gallup Poll has Trump’s approval at 37%.
Disapproval at 58%.
-21 points underwater.
This is officially lower than his polling immediately after January 6th, 2021.
===
Maybe he wont try and force Supreme Court to a allow a third term run because he knows he would lose?
@labourlewis
Lots of people asking if I’m going to join the new political party of Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana.
Here’s my response:
I’m staying put. Not because it’s easy - but because now more than ever, we need progressive voices in the Labour Party and this government.
In my view this is one of the central questions governments (or the think tanks behind them) ought to be asking.
All possible answers should be on the table, from the cultural impacts of large - scale immigration through to the alienating effects of modern capitalism.
Perhaps the answers to this could form the manifesto of Your Party?
Is Turnberry Golf Course covered by Right to Roam?
What they have done massively better than in the UK is integration of those from different cultures. They've worked incredibly hard to avoid ghettos, and to make sure that those that come have the skills to pay for themselves.
The contrast with next door Sweden, which is a total disaster zone, could not be more stark.
But leaving problems for the future to solve is what we're good at.
If I were Reform, he would be the person I would fear.
Kemi is an invisible nonentity currently overseeing the destruction of the Conservative Party.
* (bar public sector tech salaries for people like them which we should increase)
Fore !! Ooops too Far !!
Fore !! Ooops too Far !!
https://andrewspreviews.substack.com/p/previewing-the-seven-council-by-elections-c80
"The defeated Reform UK candidate Elizabeth Williams has now launched legal action in the Election Court. Her petition, which can be read on the website of Wychavon council here (link), makes various allegations as to the conduct of the count and the drawing of lots and seeks a declaration that the election is void on the grounds that Robson was elected by an equivalent of a "toss of a coin". Given that this is what the rules expect in the event of a tied election, that ground seems somewhat hopeless. Williams also makes allegations of undue influence and corrupt behaviour against the Green Party candidate and her campaign team, who are specifically accused of behaviour which sounds suspiciously like acting as tellers at polling stations."
Careful...Kemi considers that scaring people away.
Sounds like something she blurted out without any thought,
Find Out Now also has Reform at least 5% higher than other polls
The trouble is it is currently impossible to take Labour or Tories seriously either for the same reasons. Their joint determination to take the line of least resistance (Labour by carrying on the debt, deficit, spend spiral; Tories by saying they will decrease the state but not saying a single instance of how and where) is disastrous.
By the 2029 General Election it is quite possible that some black swan will have gone off pop and realism will have broken in. Otherwise, by 2029 I think lots of people will know that unless those standing have a serious plan about the hard choices, there is no point in voting for anyone.
@ciaranm.bsky.social
Thought y’all needed to know that Grok has pencilled in civil war in Britain for a week on Tuesday
https://bsky.app/profile/ciaranm.bsky.social/post/3luq72q3h4s2m
https://www.facebook.com/TruthAgainstHate/videos/1050465847278820/?fs=e&s=TIeQ9V&fs=e
The book's good too, but is a little different.
Doesn’t seem all that much when you consider partners in law firms in the North are charged out at £600+ an hour.
You are comparing apples with diamonds
A group of far-right Israeli politicians and settlers met in parliament this week to discuss a plan to displace Palestinians from Gaza, annex the territory and turn it into a hi-tech, luxury resort city for Israelis.
The scheme, titled “The master plan for settlement in the Gaza Strip”, envisions the construction of 850,000 housing units, construction of hi-tech “smart cities” that trade cryptocurrency, and a metro system that runs across the territory. It took its inspiration from an idea shared by the US president, Donald Trump, in February, when he pledged to turn Gaza into the “riviera of the Middle East”.
The text of the plan, which boasts of the economic benefits to Israel, said: “The right of the people of Israel to settle, develop and preserve this land is not just a historical right – it is a national and security obligation.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jul/24/far-right-israeli-politicians-and-settlers-discuss-luxury-gaza-riviera-plan
They need to give it away then live 7 years.
They’re not wrong. Christ
If it does get FID'ed (and if I had to bet, I would probably bet on them deferring it again), then it potentially opens up a lot of opportunity. Because once the infrastructure is in place, subsequent development becomes much cheaper. But that's a hard sell with the oil price where it is.
Both versions make sense.
They need to gift the farm and live seven years.
Someone should advise them.
EDIT Foxy got there first.
Having barely recovered from another poster's grotesque ignorance of the important things in life, we have some polling on which to muse it would seem.
To be honest, though, you pays your money and you takes your choice. Find Out Now may be the new gold standard, they will be if you are a Reform supporter while More In Common is better if you are a Conservative.
The two blocs oscillate - Find Out Now and More In Common have Ref/Con on 50% but with YouGov only 44% with Lab, LD and Green on 49% (44% with FoN and 45% with MiC).
The book I found very disappointing, but only I think because I was expecting the same story as the film.
A full two page write up on the state of the Conservatives in London - apparently it's 50 villages in search of a town - which reads pretty well for Badenoch. Apparently, the tide is turning and fortunes are improving - today's by election in Bromley may be informative.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/kemi-badenoch-conservative-party-london-b1239767.html
There's then a whole page dedicated to a piece by Conservative peer Ross Kempsell having a pop at Sadiq Khan about fare evasion - everyone seems to be channelling their inner Jenrick on this - as well as the usual Standard pieces about how terrible life is in London etc.
Big news. Macron says France will recognise a Palestinian state. He will do this formally at the United Nations GA in New York in September
https://x.com/PedderSophie/status/1948466345156506082
JC was great at getting the vote out for Labour, the trouble was he energised the Tory vote even more.
My money is on The Independent Group for Change.
Sorry to announce that after recent events we have disaffiliated from YourParty.
@Maomentum_
Please note that 'Continuity Your Party' is in fact an interim name for our new organisation.
https://bsky.app/profile/sundersays.bsky.social/post/3luoyi4yr7s25
Don't they know that you can be ill informed by far right Social Media from the comfort of a Primrose Hill flat, between nights out enjoying the balmy summer evenings of London's nightlife.
Trained security who can manhandle the shoplifters will be expensive - pay and insurance.
There have been definite legal attacks on companies that try and use security like this - I’m
aware of at least one case where a single law firm bought cases against multiple shops/workers in a chain, over confrontation with shop lifters.
Alternatively, you can use the methodology of my local mini Tesco. A cousin of the manager hangs around and bashes shoplifters. When taken to court, he doesn’t give a shit. And since he isn’t actually employed by the store, no comeback.
Boy, did it rip my soul out. Those final 20 minutes with that sound set-up just added to it. Pretty much physically feeling each gunshot and tank blast.