How big an explosion would it be if they hit Fordow? Could it be a potential Krakatoa?
Unless the Iranians have actually constructed a no-point safe nuclear bomb - a nuclear bomb that can yield significantly with a single point of detonation* - there is no possibility of a nuclear explosion from merely blowing up a pile of enriched uranium.
There is a vanishingly tiny possibly that in the aftermath of a collapse, if the enriched material was stored very close together *and* the site flooded, they could end up with an Oklo style nuclear reactor, bubbling away under the mountain. But that would require something idiotic, like keeping all the material in a single room.
*The UK Violet Club was very, very unsafe. You could get Nagasaki just if a plane crashed with the bomb in the wrong state. The 1950s RAF said it was too dangerous.
“Tucker Carlson: “If I were Putin, I would offer free first class trips to Moscow so they could see that Moscow was so much nicer than any place in Great Britain. It's like not even close…It's just weird that they're mad at Putin. Why aren't they mad at Keir Starmer? Britain is so degraded”
The saddest thing here is that Tucker Carlson has a point. Not so much about Moscow - it’s a showpiece city for a tyranny - but about Britain
Moscow’s a fascinating place, one of the most interesting cities I’ve visited, but I wouldn’t call it “nice.” A bit bleak and austere, I thought.
I haven't been to Moscow for 20 years. All my recent visits were to St Petersburg and the north
I am highly minded to go back. Could be a Gazette article in seeing is Tucker is right
Moscow is the centre of the Russian Empire that stays rich by extracting wealth from the rest of Russia. It’s entirely unsurprising that it appears wealthy - it is! Meanwhile vast swathes of Russia don’t even have paved roads.
Even some "cities" don't have proper paved roads. They have half empty decaying concrete buildings.
The best comparison for a city like Norilisk is Johannesburg. Crime ridden, poor, corrupt, with infrastructure that increasingly fails and sinking ever further into the abyss.
OK I just checked
You're talking nonsense
Here is street life in Omsk in August 2024. Omsk is an industrial city in Siberia, so one might expect it to be grim. And certainly there is a lot of concrete and the pavements are sometimes shabby. But there are also shiny new shops, it all looks orderly, there is - note this - almost no litter or graffiti. Is this really vastly worse than one of the poorer industrial cities in Britain?
I'm not convinced. What it certainly isn't, is Johannesburg
Fun fact: British military advisors were stationed in Omsk during the Russian Civil War, but only for about 6 months before the Reds defeated the White regional government based there.
So Omsk is British?
Along with Baku which the British held alongside the Armenians against the Turks for several weeks in 1918. There was even a small British fleet on the Caspian Sea.
Baku was held briefly by the British from August to September 1918, and then again (also inc. Azerbaijan) from November 1918 to August 1919.
Transcaspia (roughly today's Turkmenistan) was held between August 1918 and April 1919.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
BBC already showing Iranians fleeing through Meghri, Southern Armenia
You do have to wonder about journalists who say they are going to ask them where they are coming from, and then receives a no nonsense rebuttal from them as they do not want to be on camera !!!!!
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
“Tucker Carlson: “If I were Putin, I would offer free first class trips to Moscow so they could see that Moscow was so much nicer than any place in Great Britain. It's like not even close…It's just weird that they're mad at Putin. Why aren't they mad at Keir Starmer? Britain is so degraded”
The saddest thing here is that Tucker Carlson has a point. Not so much about Moscow - it’s a showpiece city for a tyranny - but about Britain
Moscow’s a fascinating place, one of the most interesting cities I’ve visited, but I wouldn’t call it “nice.” A bit bleak and austere, I thought.
I haven't been to Moscow for 20 years. All my recent visits were to St Petersburg and the north
I am highly minded to go back. Could be a Gazette article in seeing is Tucker is right
Moscow is the centre of the Russian Empire that stays rich by extracting wealth from the rest of Russia. It’s entirely unsurprising that it appears wealthy - it is! Meanwhile vast swathes of Russia don’t even have paved roads.
Even some "cities" don't have proper paved roads. They have half empty decaying concrete buildings.
The best comparison for a city like Norilisk is Johannesburg. Crime ridden, poor, corrupt, with infrastructure that increasingly fails and sinking ever further into the abyss.
OK I just checked
You're talking nonsense
Here is street life in Omsk in August 2024. Omsk is an industrial city in Siberia, so one might expect it to be grim. And certainly there is a lot of concrete and the pavements are sometimes shabby. But there are also shiny new shops, it all looks orderly, there is - note this - almost no litter or graffiti. Is this really vastly worse than one of the poorer industrial cities in Britain?
I'm not convinced. What it certainly isn't, is Johannesburg
Fun fact: British military advisors were stationed in Omsk during the Russian Civil War, but only for about 6 months before the Reds defeated the White regional government based there.
So Omsk is British?
Nah, in the spreadsheet I'm currently updating, I've set a minimum continuous occupation/protectorate period of 365 consecutive days. Omsk and Baku are out, but Murmansk and Archangel qualify!
Putting aside the fact it’s not a cool place to go, is visiting Dubai going to be dangerous in the near future?
Should be fine, I am umming and ahhing about taking a job in Dubai.
I would be genuinely unsure about a job in Dubai right now. I don't remotely blame you for fleeing the YooKay, but the Gulf is vulnerable if this really hots up
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
How could anyone on X possibly know that?
Its not like the US defence secretary would tell all his friends, family and associated hangers on, the details in real time is it?
Don’t forget their servants, their servant’s tennis partners and some chap the secretary bumped into in a Pentagon pizza parlour the other day called Bernard.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I suspect it’s on, I suspect Bart gets his war. I hope it’s just sabre rattling for a negotiation. I suspect not but I know nothing.
What comes after the bombing though and how long does it last ?
No one is going boots on the ground, there won’t be a ground offensive. Or at least I suspect not. So, given the US and its allies never really have a plan after the initial shock and awe will it be different this time.
“Tucker Carlson: “If I were Putin, I would offer free first class trips to Moscow so they could see that Moscow was so much nicer than any place in Great Britain. It's like not even close…It's just weird that they're mad at Putin. Why aren't they mad at Keir Starmer? Britain is so degraded”
The saddest thing here is that Tucker Carlson has a point. Not so much about Moscow - it’s a showpiece city for a tyranny - but about Britain
Moscow’s a fascinating place, one of the most interesting cities I’ve visited, but I wouldn’t call it “nice.” A bit bleak and austere, I thought.
I haven't been to Moscow for 20 years. All my recent visits were to St Petersburg and the north
I am highly minded to go back. Could be a Gazette article in seeing is Tucker is right
Moscow is the centre of the Russian Empire that stays rich by extracting wealth from the rest of Russia. It’s entirely unsurprising that it appears wealthy - it is! Meanwhile vast swathes of Russia don’t even have paved roads.
Even some "cities" don't have proper paved roads. They have half empty decaying concrete buildings.
The best comparison for a city like Norilisk is Johannesburg. Crime ridden, poor, corrupt, with infrastructure that increasingly fails and sinking ever further into the abyss.
OK I just checked
You're talking nonsense
Here is street life in Omsk in August 2024. Omsk is an industrial city in Siberia, so one might expect it to be grim. And certainly there is a lot of concrete and the pavements are sometimes shabby. But there are also shiny new shops, it all looks orderly, there is - note this - almost no litter or graffiti. Is this really vastly worse than one of the poorer industrial cities in Britain?
I'm not convinced. What it certainly isn't, is Johannesburg
Fun fact: British military advisors were stationed in Omsk during the Russian Civil War, but only for about 6 months before the Reds defeated the White regional government based there.
So Omsk is British?
Along with Baku which the British held alongside the Armenians against the Turks for several weeks in 1918. There was even a small British fleet on the Caspian Sea.
Baku was held briefly by the British from August to September 1918, and then again (also inc. Azerbaijan) from November 1918 to August 1919.
Transcaspia (roughly today's Turkmenistan) was held between August 1918 and April 1919.
I am writing a book on both Dunsterforce and the Malleson mission up onto the South Central Asian Railway in Turkmenistan.
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
How could anyone on X possibly know that?
Its not like the US defence secretary would tell all his friends, family and associated hangers on, the details in real time is it?
Don’t forget their servants, their servant’s tennis partners and some chap the secretary bumped into in the mess the other day called Bernard.
And least if he told Bernard then Bernard could tell us with a memorable quip about irregular verbs.
Lets see, something like: “I am conducting a limited intervention to prevent further bloodshed; you are aggravating an inflamed situation for your own ends; they are warmongers hell bent on dragging the US into another war in the sandpit.” ?
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
🇺🇸⚡- BREAKING: The B2 Bombers are armed and loaded with munition.
The bombers have entered the Pacific arena.
Their next stop is vital, if they land in Hawaii, they will likely move onto RAF Diego Garcia.
However, if they land in Guam, as we've pointed out, they can launch a silent attack directly on Iran.
Why would they land?
No idea. Maybe @Dura_Ace can tell us. Or one of our other military boffins
Can't be for fuel as they already refuelled?
You'd only be giving away intel. Plus i doubt they'll all be bombing the nuclear sites. Much easier to hit all the command bunkers and then damage the nuclear stuff.
🇺🇸⚡- BREAKING: The B2 Bombers are armed and loaded with munition.
The bombers have entered the Pacific arena.
Their next stop is vital, if they land in Hawaii, they will likely move onto RAF Diego Garcia.
However, if they land in Guam, as we've pointed out, they can launch a silent attack directly on Iran.
Why would they land?
No idea. Maybe @Dura_Ace can tell us. Or one of our other military boffins
Can't be for fuel as they already refuelled?
You'd only be giving away intel. Plus i doubt they'll all be bombing the nuclear sites. Much easier to hit all the command bunkers and then damage the nuclear stuff.
X is reporting that Israel is attacking other nuclear sites right now
So a combined assault makes sense, take it all out in one go?
“Tucker Carlson: “If I were Putin, I would offer free first class trips to Moscow so they could see that Moscow was so much nicer than any place in Great Britain. It's like not even close…It's just weird that they're mad at Putin. Why aren't they mad at Keir Starmer? Britain is so degraded”
The saddest thing here is that Tucker Carlson has a point. Not so much about Moscow - it’s a showpiece city for a tyranny - but about Britain
Moscow’s a fascinating place, one of the most interesting cities I’ve visited, but I wouldn’t call it “nice.” A bit bleak and austere, I thought.
I haven't been to Moscow for 20 years. All my recent visits were to St Petersburg and the north
I am highly minded to go back. Could be a Gazette article in seeing is Tucker is right
Moscow is the centre of the Russian Empire that stays rich by extracting wealth from the rest of Russia. It’s entirely unsurprising that it appears wealthy - it is! Meanwhile vast swathes of Russia don’t even have paved roads.
Even some "cities" don't have proper paved roads. They have half empty decaying concrete buildings.
The best comparison for a city like Norilisk is Johannesburg. Crime ridden, poor, corrupt, with infrastructure that increasingly fails and sinking ever further into the abyss.
OK I just checked
You're talking nonsense
Here is street life in Omsk in August 2024. Omsk is an industrial city in Siberia, so one might expect it to be grim. And certainly there is a lot of concrete and the pavements are sometimes shabby. But there are also shiny new shops, it all looks orderly, there is - note this - almost no litter or graffiti. Is this really vastly worse than one of the poorer industrial cities in Britain?
I'm not convinced. What it certainly isn't, is Johannesburg
Fun fact: British military advisors were stationed in Omsk during the Russian Civil War, but only for about 6 months before the Reds defeated the White regional government based there.
So Omsk is British?
Along with Baku which the British held alongside the Armenians against the Turks for several weeks in 1918. There was even a small British fleet on the Caspian Sea.
Baku was held briefly by the British from August to September 1918, and then again (also inc. Azerbaijan) from November 1918 to August 1919.
Transcaspia (roughly today's Turkmenistan) was held between August 1918 and April 1919.
I am writing a book on both Dunsterforce and the Malleson mission up onto the South Central Asian Railway in Turkmenistan.
🇺🇸⚡- BREAKING: The B2 Bombers are armed and loaded with munition.
The bombers have entered the Pacific arena.
Their next stop is vital, if they land in Hawaii, they will likely move onto RAF Diego Garcia.
However, if they land in Guam, as we've pointed out, they can launch a silent attack directly on Iran.
Why would they land?
No idea. Maybe @Dura_Ace can tell us. Or one of our other military boffins
Can't be for fuel as they already refuelled?
You'd only be giving away intel. Plus i doubt they'll all be bombing the nuclear sites. Much easier to hit all the command bunkers and then damage the nuclear stuff.
X is reporting that Israel is attacking other nuclear sites right now
So a combined assault makes sense, take it all out in one go?
That can't possibly be happening, @WhisperingOracle told us that Iran was winning the war and Israel would be begging for mercy looking for a way out.
“Tucker Carlson: “If I were Putin, I would offer free first class trips to Moscow so they could see that Moscow was so much nicer than any place in Great Britain. It's like not even close…It's just weird that they're mad at Putin. Why aren't they mad at Keir Starmer? Britain is so degraded”
The saddest thing here is that Tucker Carlson has a point. Not so much about Moscow - it’s a showpiece city for a tyranny - but about Britain
Moscow’s a fascinating place, one of the most interesting cities I’ve visited, but I wouldn’t call it “nice.” A bit bleak and austere, I thought.
I haven't been to Moscow for 20 years. All my recent visits were to St Petersburg and the north
I am highly minded to go back. Could be a Gazette article in seeing is Tucker is right
Moscow is the centre of the Russian Empire that stays rich by extracting wealth from the rest of Russia. It’s entirely unsurprising that it appears wealthy - it is! Meanwhile vast swathes of Russia don’t even have paved roads.
Even some "cities" don't have proper paved roads. They have half empty decaying concrete buildings.
The best comparison for a city like Norilisk is Johannesburg. Crime ridden, poor, corrupt, with infrastructure that increasingly fails and sinking ever further into the abyss.
OK I just checked
You're talking nonsense
Here is street life in Omsk in August 2024. Omsk is an industrial city in Siberia, so one might expect it to be grim. And certainly there is a lot of concrete and the pavements are sometimes shabby. But there are also shiny new shops, it all looks orderly, there is - note this - almost no litter or graffiti. Is this really vastly worse than one of the poorer industrial cities in Britain?
I'm not convinced. What it certainly isn't, is Johannesburg
Fun fact: British military advisors were stationed in Omsk during the Russian Civil War, but only for about 6 months before the Reds defeated the White regional government based there.
So Omsk is British?
Nah, in the spreadsheet I'm currently updating, I've set a minimum continuous occupation/protectorate period of 365 consecutive days. Omsk and Baku are out, but Murmansk and Archangel qualify!
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
It is a very scary time and certainly cheering Trump on to bomb Iran holds untold consequences not least with terrorist cells opening worldwide
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Out of curiosity, if a nuclear facility is attacked causing radiological materials there to escape into the environment, what sort of radius would be affected and how hazardous would it be?
I'm guessing it would be less hazardous than a Chernobyl style meltdown and should be pretty localised?
🇺🇸⚡- BREAKING: The B2 Bombers are armed and loaded with munition.
The bombers have entered the Pacific arena.
Their next stop is vital, if they land in Hawaii, they will likely move onto RAF Diego Garcia.
However, if they land in Guam, as we've pointed out, they can launch a silent attack directly on Iran.
Why would they land?
No idea. Maybe @Dura_Ace can tell us. Or one of our other military boffins
Can't be for fuel as they already refuelled?
You'd only be giving away intel. Plus i doubt they'll all be bombing the nuclear sites. Much easier to hit all the command bunkers and then damage the nuclear stuff.
X is reporting that Israel is attacking other nuclear sites right now
So a combined assault makes sense, take it all out in one go?
That can't possibly be happening, @WhisperingOracle told us that Iran was winning the war and Israel would be begging for mercy looking for a way out.
No, I said that Israel had got over-confident, and that was apparently connected to now emphasising American support more.
Iran’s supreme leader has been moved to a highly secure location where he is under the protection of a top-secret elite unit, The Telegraph has learned.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ruled Iran since 1989, has entrusted his survival to a previously unknown group of deeply vetted bodyguards, amid increasingly overt threats from Israel on his life, according to officials in Tehran.
Believing Israeli intelligence has comprehensively penetrated the regime, the unit was kept so secret that even senior officials within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were unaware of its existence.
That Tehran tv show is appears to be closer to fact.
Geo Galloway Esq is claiming that the “earthquake” in Iran was actually an A bomb test
In his case it’s almost certainly hopeguessing
The point of doing an A-bomb test for Iran at the moment would be to show the world that you've done an A-bomb test, and thereby deter military attacks from continuing.
I don't see the point in them conducting a test and keeping it on the downlow. It's not like they could keep it secret.
Creating a nuclear bomb, and having a delivery system are two different things (and production may be slow). If you create a nuclear bomb but have no delivery system, then you invite being nuked into the stone age before you can do the second.
So whilst Galloway's comment is pure cope, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that you'd want to do your test in secret.
🇺🇸⚡- BREAKING: The B2 Bombers are armed and loaded with munition.
The bombers have entered the Pacific arena.
Their next stop is vital, if they land in Hawaii, they will likely move onto RAF Diego Garcia.
However, if they land in Guam, as we've pointed out, they can launch a silent attack directly on Iran.
Why would they land?
No idea. Maybe @Dura_Ace can tell us. Or one of our other military boffins
Can't be for fuel as they already refuelled?
You'd only be giving away intel. Plus i doubt they'll all be bombing the nuclear sites. Much easier to hit all the command bunkers and then damage the nuclear stuff.
X is reporting that Israel is attacking other nuclear sites right now
So a combined assault makes sense, take it all out in one go?
Who knows?
IMO they'll do an Iraq and demolish all the infrastructure and then a Syria/Lebanon with non stop over flights with targeted assassinations and blowing up ambulances. No need to do anything else once you've destroyed the state and immiserated its people
Off topic, but of interest to some of you: "Cricket fans in the Pacific Northwest—mark your calendars! Major League Cricket is back, and the Seattle Orcas are making sure no one misses a moment. With all ten league-stage matches scheduled on the road, the franchise has rolled out an exciting slate of official Watch Parties across the Seattle metro area, bringing fans together to celebrate the game like never before.
Watch Parties will be hosted in South Lake Union and Redmond, depending on where the Orcas are playing. These events will feature big-screen broadcasts, food trucks, music, giveaways, official team merchandise, and a lively, welcoming atmosphere for both longtime fans and newcomers."
The local Fox affiliate will be broadcasting some of the matches. (Yes, that's right, Fox.)
South Lake Union is Amazon's Seattle headquarters; Redmond, as I assume almost all of you know, is Microsoft's headquarters.
(For the record: I may watch parts of a few of the matches, mostly because I am still curious about some parts of Murder Must Advertise and Tinker, Tailor.
And it is time for reciprocity! London should have at least two minor league baseball teams, with others, throughout the UK.
Iran’s supreme leader has been moved to a highly secure location where he is under the protection of a top-secret elite unit, The Telegraph has learned.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ruled Iran since 1989, has entrusted his survival to a previously unknown group of deeply vetted bodyguards, amid increasingly overt threats from Israel on his life, according to officials in Tehran.
Believing Israeli intelligence has comprehensively penetrated the regime, the unit was kept so secret that even senior officials within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were unaware of its existence.
That Tehran tv show is appears to be closer to fact.
Geo Galloway Esq is claiming that the “earthquake” in Iran was actually an A bomb test
In his case it’s almost certainly hopeguessing
The point of doing an A-bomb test for Iran at the moment would be to show the world that you've done an A-bomb test, and thereby deter military attacks from continuing.
I don't see the point in them conducting a test and keeping it on the downlow. It's not like they could keep it secret.
Creating a nuclear bomb, and having a delivery system are two different things (and production may be slow). If you create a nuclear bomb but have no delivery system, then you invite being nuked into the stone age before you can do the second.
So whilst Galloway's comment is pure cope, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that you'd want to do your test in secret.
Also the second recent earthquake in the area, I think.
OK this is a betting site, let's put some numbers down
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
Willing to take bets on each
If they have already taken off then where are they going that takes 36 hours?
And I can't see the isolationists wanting to get involved and I can't see the cold warriors wanting to tell Russia and China that tactical nukes are fair dinkum in an undeclared war.
The isolationists in general aren't an issue, they'll swallow whatever Trump offers them.
The bigger problem is that TACO is one of them himself.
USAF flies over to distract Iran while IDF conducts a ground raid. No American shots fired. Everyone is happy.
I don't see it - it would need a mini-invasion not a commando raid, and I don't see the IDF projecting at least several thousand troops the best part of 1500 miles. Do they even have the capacity, by land OR air?
🇺🇸⚡- BREAKING: The B2 Bombers are armed and loaded with munition.
The bombers have entered the Pacific arena.
Their next stop is vital, if they land in Hawaii, they will likely move onto RAF Diego Garcia.
However, if they land in Guam, as we've pointed out, they can launch a silent attack directly on Iran.
Why would they land?
No idea. Maybe @Dura_Ace can tell us. Or one of our other military boffins
Can't be for fuel as they already refuelled?
You'd only be giving away intel. Plus i doubt they'll all be bombing the nuclear sites. Much easier to hit all the command bunkers and then damage the nuclear stuff.
X is reporting that Israel is attacking other nuclear sites right now
So a combined assault makes sense, take it all out in one go?
That can't possibly be happening, @WhisperingOracle told us that Iran was winning the war and Israel would be begging for mercy looking for a way out.
No, I said that Israel had got over-confident, and that was apparently connected to now emphasising American support more.
Given that Israel seems to still have complete air superiority over Iran and are routinely taking out Iranian commanders and facilities, with or without Yankee support, it seems like they were accurately confident.
The IRGC liaison with Hamas was the latest commander liquidated. Another they wouldn't have got if they'd followed your advice.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
The Anschluss was between Austria and Germany which were both ethnically and linguistically German.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
The Anschluss was between Austria and Germany which were both ethnically and linguistically German.
🇺🇸⚡- BREAKING: The B2 Bombers are armed and loaded with munition.
The bombers have entered the Pacific arena.
Their next stop is vital, if they land in Hawaii, they will likely move onto RAF Diego Garcia.
However, if they land in Guam, as we've pointed out, they can launch a silent attack directly on Iran.
Why would they land?
No idea. Maybe @Dura_Ace can tell us. Or one of our other military boffins
Can't be for fuel as they already refuelled?
You'd only be giving away intel. Plus i doubt they'll all be bombing the nuclear sites. Much easier to hit all the command bunkers and then damage the nuclear stuff.
X is reporting that Israel is attacking other nuclear sites right now
So a combined assault makes sense, take it all out in one go?
That can't possibly be happening, @WhisperingOracle told us that Iran was winning the war and Israel would be begging for mercy looking for a way out.
No, I said that Israel had got over-confident, and that was apparently connected to now emphasising American support more.
Given that Israel seems to still have complete air superiority over Iran and are routinely taking out Iranian commanders and facilities, with or without Yankee support, it seems like they were accurately confident.
The IRGC liaison with Hamas was the latest commander liquidated. Another they wouldn't have got if they'd followed your advice.
I didn't really give any advice either way, and have no love for the Mullahs and their torturers. But Israel should not be above criticism.
🇺🇸⚡- BREAKING: The B2 Bombers are armed and loaded with munition.
The bombers have entered the Pacific arena.
Their next stop is vital, if they land in Hawaii, they will likely move onto RAF Diego Garcia.
However, if they land in Guam, as we've pointed out, they can launch a silent attack directly on Iran.
Why would they land?
No idea. Maybe @Dura_Ace can tell us. Or one of our other military boffins
Can't be for fuel as they already refuelled?
You'd only be giving away intel. Plus i doubt they'll all be bombing the nuclear sites. Much easier to hit all the command bunkers and then damage the nuclear stuff.
X is reporting that Israel is attacking other nuclear sites right now
So a combined assault makes sense, take it all out in one go?
That can't possibly be happening, @WhisperingOracle told us that Iran was winning the war and Israel would be begging for mercy looking for a way out.
No, I said that Israel had got over-confident, and that was apparently connected to now emphasising American support more.
Given that Israel seems to still have complete air superiority over Iran and are routinely taking out Iranian commanders and facilities, with or without Yankee support, it seems like they were accurately confident.
The IRGC liaison with Hamas was the latest commander liquidated. Another they wouldn't have got if they'd followed your advice.
I didn't really give any advice either way, and have no love for the Mullahs and their torturers. But Israel should not be above criticism.
Agreed that they shouldn't be above criticism.
But taking out the IRGC/mullahs/nuclear facilities/terrorists is something to compliment, not criticise.
Off topic, but of interest to some of you: "Cricket fans in the Pacific Northwest—mark your calendars! Major League Cricket is back, and the Seattle Orcas are making sure no one misses a moment. With all ten league-stage matches scheduled on the road, the franchise has rolled out an exciting slate of official Watch Parties across the Seattle metro area, bringing fans together to celebrate the game like never before.
Watch Parties will be hosted in South Lake Union and Redmond, depending on where the Orcas are playing. These events will feature big-screen broadcasts, food trucks, music, giveaways, official team merchandise, and a lively, welcoming atmosphere for both longtime fans and newcomers."
The local Fox affiliate will be broadcasting some of the matches. (Yes, that's right, Fox.)
South Lake Union is Amazon's Seattle headquarters; Redmond, as I assume almost all of you know, is Microsoft's headquarters.
(For the record: I may watch parts of a few of the matches, mostly because I am still curious about some parts of Murder Must Advertise and Tinker, Tailor.
And it is time for reciprocity! London should have at least two minor league baseball teams, with others, throughout the UK.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
The Anschluss was between Austria and Germany which were both ethnically and linguistically German.
So its nonsense then? No surprise there, time for Trump to do his thing and chicken out.
Batman has his Batsignal, while Trump has his 🌮🔔
I'd call that one more that we may have not been asked wrt to Diego Garcia, or said no - which would be the sensible answer for our POV, subject maybe to Trump brainstorms.
In the past it has only been Labour Govts that said no to the USA iirc, when Harold Wilson said No when it was about getting involved in Vietnam.
Off topic, but of interest to some of you: "Cricket fans in the Pacific Northwest—mark your calendars! Major League Cricket is back, and the Seattle Orcas are making sure no one misses a moment. With all ten league-stage matches scheduled on the road, the franchise has rolled out an exciting slate of official Watch Parties across the Seattle metro area, bringing fans together to celebrate the game like never before.
Watch Parties will be hosted in South Lake Union and Redmond, depending on where the Orcas are playing. These events will feature big-screen broadcasts, food trucks, music, giveaways, official team merchandise, and a lively, welcoming atmosphere for both longtime fans and newcomers."
The local Fox affiliate will be broadcasting some of the matches. (Yes, that's right, Fox.)
South Lake Union is Amazon's Seattle headquarters; Redmond, as I assume almost all of you know, is Microsoft's headquarters.
(For the record: I may watch parts of a few of the matches, mostly because I am still curious about some parts of Murder Must Advertise and Tinker, Tailor.
And it is time for reciprocity! London should have at least two minor league baseball teams, with others, throughout the UK.
If Fox were interested in cricket, they ought to broadcast some Leicestershire matches.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
It is a very scary time and certainly cheering Trump on to bomb Iran holds untold consequences not least with terrorist cells opening worldwide
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Trump dismissed Europe publicly yesterday
Well if Trump wants to be involved in another US backed war in the Middle East that is up to him, Europe will stay out, it has enough on its hands helping defend Ukraine
Off topic, but of interest to some of you: "Cricket fans in the Pacific Northwest—mark your calendars! Major League Cricket is back, and the Seattle Orcas are making sure no one misses a moment. With all ten league-stage matches scheduled on the road, the franchise has rolled out an exciting slate of official Watch Parties across the Seattle metro area, bringing fans together to celebrate the game like never before.
Watch Parties will be hosted in South Lake Union and Redmond, depending on where the Orcas are playing. These events will feature big-screen broadcasts, food trucks, music, giveaways, official team merchandise, and a lively, welcoming atmosphere for both longtime fans and newcomers."
The local Fox affiliate will be broadcasting some of the matches. (Yes, that's right, Fox.)
South Lake Union is Amazon's Seattle headquarters; Redmond, as I assume almost all of you know, is Microsoft's headquarters.
(For the record: I may watch parts of a few of the matches, mostly because I am still curious about some parts of Murder Must Advertise and Tinker, Tailor.
And it is time for reciprocity! London should have at least two minor league baseball teams, with others, throughout the UK.
Fun fact:
Along with British Columbia, the US States of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, the NW section of Montana, as well as a slice of western Wyoming were all part of the Oregon Country, a condominium between the UK and USA between 1818 and 1846.
Out of curiosity, if a nuclear facility is attacked causing radiological materials there to escape into the environment, what sort of radius would be affected and how hazardous would it be?
I'm guessing it would be less hazardous than a Chernobyl style meltdown and should be pretty localised?
There are three main variables. How high a plume of nuclear material reaches in the atmosphere (which is mainly a function of how hot it is), how long the plume is emitted from the surface, and what the winds and weather are doing (which direction is the wind, how quickly the nuclear material is rained out, etc)
Chernobyl was particularly bad because the fire continued for a long time, and the winds took it in our direction. I don't know enough to know whether that's possible with a stockpile of enriched uranium that's bombed.
The Met Office have a model that was developed after Chernobyl to forecast this sort of thing, and they'll be running scenarios with a variety of assumptions for nuclear release.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
The Anschluss was between Austria and Germany which were both ethnically and linguistically German.
Whereas Iran is Persian and Iraq is Arab.
But underpinned by Shia Islam.
How well have countries based upon religious similarities succeeded ?
There was West/East Pakistan. Any others ?
Whereas countries based upon ethnic and linguistic similarities are widespread and do tend to succeed.
And this would be a case of union based upon similarity of a branch of religion.
Not to mention that 40% of Iraq isn't Shia.
Or that the Iraqi Shia would change from being a majority in their country to becoming a minority in a bigger country.
Out of curiosity, if a nuclear facility is attacked causing radiological materials there to escape into the environment, what sort of radius would be affected and how hazardous would it be?
I'm guessing it would be less hazardous than a Chernobyl style meltdown and should be pretty localised?
There are three main variables. How high a plume of nuclear material reaches in the atmosphere (which is mainly a function of how hot it is), how long the plume is emitted from the surface, and what the winds and weather are doing (which direction is the wind, how quickly the nuclear material is rained out, etc)
Chernobyl was particularly bad because the fire continued for a long time, and the winds took it in our direction. I don't know enough to know whether that's possible with a stockpile of enriched uranium that's bombed.
The Met Office have a model that was developed after Chernobyl to forecast this sort of thing, and they'll be running scenarios with a variety of assumptions for nuclear release.
Out of curiosity, if a nuclear facility is attacked causing radiological materials there to escape into the environment, what sort of radius would be affected and how hazardous would it be?
I'm guessing it would be less hazardous than a Chernobyl style meltdown and should be pretty localised?
Uranium is fairly harmless. I wouldn’t eat any for your tea. But it oxidises on contact with air and uranium oxide is pretty stable.
Trying to get the enriched stuff the Iranians have to do anything other than sit there would be hard. Unless they are keeping it in one small room.
Out of curiosity, if a nuclear facility is attacked causing radiological materials there to escape into the environment, what sort of radius would be affected and how hazardous would it be?
I'm guessing it would be less hazardous than a Chernobyl style meltdown and should be pretty localised?
There are three main variables. How high a plume of nuclear material reaches in the atmosphere (which is mainly a function of how hot it is), how long the plume is emitted from the surface, and what the winds and weather are doing (which direction is the wind, how quickly the nuclear material is rained out, etc)
Chernobyl was particularly bad because the fire continued for a long time, and the winds took it in our direction. I don't know enough to know whether that's possible with a stockpile of enriched uranium that's bombed.
The Met Office have a model that was developed after Chernobyl to forecast this sort of thing, and they'll be running scenarios with a variety of assumptions for nuclear release.
If there’s no nuclear reaction you have no fallout. Getting a bunch on enriched uranium to become a reactor is fairly hard.
Out of curiosity, if a nuclear facility is attacked causing radiological materials there to escape into the environment, what sort of radius would be affected and how hazardous would it be?
I'm guessing it would be less hazardous than a Chernobyl style meltdown and should be pretty localised?
Uranium is fairly harmless. I wouldn’t eat any for your tea. But it oxidises on contact with air and uranium oxide is pretty stable.
Trying to get the enriched stuff the Iranians have to do anything other than sit there would be hard. Unless they are keeping it in one small room.
I'm more thinking of whether it could be neutralised, and whether it would be dangerous, rather than ignited.
I did think if there were no nuclear reactions that it wouldn't have fallout, but wasn't sure.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
It is a very scary time and certainly cheering Trump on to bomb Iran holds untold consequences not least with terrorist cells opening worldwide
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Trump dismissed Europe publicly yesterday
Well if Trump wants to be involved in another US backed war in the Middle East that is up to him, Europe will stay out, it has enough on its hands helping defend Ukraine
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
It is a very scary time and certainly cheering Trump on to bomb Iran holds untold consequences not least with terrorist cells opening worldwide
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Trump dismissed Europe publicly yesterday
Well if Trump wants to be involved in another US backed war in the Middle East that is up to him, Europe will stay out, it has enough on its hands helping defend Ukraine
Likely UK will be involved in some form
Sir Kier Philby will do anything he can to put the economy into a death spiral, so we probably will.
Out of curiosity, if a nuclear facility is attacked causing radiological materials there to escape into the environment, what sort of radius would be affected and how hazardous would it be?
I'm guessing it would be less hazardous than a Chernobyl style meltdown and should be pretty localised?
Uranium is fairly harmless. I wouldn’t eat any for your tea. But it oxidises on contact with air and uranium oxide is pretty stable.
Trying to get the enriched stuff the Iranians have to do anything other than sit there would be hard. Unless they are keeping it in one small room.
In many ways the highly enriched stuff is less dangerous: it's very long half lives means it's not constantly emiting radiation.
Out of curiosity, if a nuclear facility is attacked causing radiological materials there to escape into the environment, what sort of radius would be affected and how hazardous would it be?
I'm guessing it would be less hazardous than a Chernobyl style meltdown and should be pretty localised?
Uranium is fairly harmless. I wouldn’t eat any for your tea. But it oxidises on contact with air and uranium oxide is pretty stable.
Trying to get the enriched stuff the Iranians have to do anything other than sit there would be hard. Unless they are keeping it in one small room.
In many ways the highly enriched stuff is less dangerous: it's very long half lives means it's not constantly emiting radiation.
Out of curiosity, if a nuclear facility is attacked causing radiological materials there to escape into the environment, what sort of radius would be affected and how hazardous would it be?
I'm guessing it would be less hazardous than a Chernobyl style meltdown and should be pretty localised?
Uranium is fairly harmless. I wouldn’t eat any for your tea. But it oxidises on contact with air and uranium oxide is pretty stable.
Trying to get the enriched stuff the Iranians have to do anything other than sit there would be hard. Unless they are keeping it in one small room.
I'm more thinking of whether it could be neutralised, and whether it would be dangerous, rather than ignited.
I did think if there were no nuclear reactions that it wouldn't have fallout, but wasn't sure.
Not really. It's hard to turn U135 into something else.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
It is a very scary time and certainly cheering Trump on to bomb Iran holds untold consequences not least with terrorist cells opening worldwide
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Trump dismissed Europe publicly yesterday
Well if Trump wants to be involved in another US backed war in the Middle East that is up to him, Europe will stay out, it has enough on its hands helping defend Ukraine
Likely UK will be involved in some form
At most a few US planes might fly from UK airbases, the Labour backbenches won't allow Starmer to do anymore.
Labour may no longer be on Iran's side as it would have been under Corbyn but that certainly doesn't mean it will back fighting with Israel either
Out of curiosity, if a nuclear facility is attacked causing radiological materials there to escape into the environment, what sort of radius would be affected and how hazardous would it be?
I'm guessing it would be less hazardous than a Chernobyl style meltdown and should be pretty localised?
Uranium is fairly harmless. I wouldn’t eat any for your tea. But it oxidises on contact with air and uranium oxide is pretty stable.
Trying to get the enriched stuff the Iranians have to do anything other than sit there would be hard. Unless they are keeping it in one small room.
In many ways the highly enriched stuff is less dangerous: it's very long half lives means it's not constantly emiting radiation.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
It is a very scary time and certainly cheering Trump on to bomb Iran holds untold consequences not least with terrorist cells opening worldwide
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Trump dismissed Europe publicly yesterday
Well if Trump wants to be involved in another US backed war in the Middle East that is up to him, Europe will stay out, it has enough on its hands helping defend Ukraine
If he does, and it looks,likely, I think the MAGA lot are right, it will effectively finish his presidency and possibly MAGA.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
It is a very scary time and certainly cheering Trump on to bomb Iran holds untold consequences not least with terrorist cells opening worldwide
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Trump dismissed Europe publicly yesterday
Well if Trump wants to be involved in another US backed war in the Middle East that is up to him, Europe will stay out, it has enough on its hands helping defend Ukraine
If he does, and it looks,likely, I think the MAGA lot are right, it will effectively finish his presidency and possibly MAGA.
It all depends how it turns out. If it's his Falklands Moment then it won't matter if MAGA opposed it and he'll be able to contrast it with the Bush era quagmire of 'if you break it, you own it' nation building.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
It is a very scary time and certainly cheering Trump on to bomb Iran holds untold consequences not least with terrorist cells opening worldwide
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Trump dismissed Europe publicly yesterday
Well if Trump wants to be involved in another US backed war in the Middle East that is up to him, Europe will stay out, it has enough on its hands helping defend Ukraine
If he does, and it looks,likely, I think the MAGA lot are right, it will effectively finish his presidency and possibly MAGA.
The MAGA lot are fanatical devotees who will trust that he's done the right thing (which for once he would have).
And if he does nothing, they'll still think he has (which in that case he won't have).
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
It is a very scary time and certainly cheering Trump on to bomb Iran holds untold consequences not least with terrorist cells opening worldwide
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Trump dismissed Europe publicly yesterday
Well if Trump wants to be involved in another US backed war in the Middle East that is up to him, Europe will stay out, it has enough on its hands helping defend Ukraine
If he does, and it looks,likely, I think the MAGA lot are right, it will effectively finish his presidency and possibly MAGA.
I think there's a difference between MAGA voters - who are concerned about immigration and everyday wokery - and the pro Russia MAGA media types.
Trump can always get the MAGA voters support by launching crackdowns on illegal immigrants.
Out of curiosity, if a nuclear facility is attacked causing radiological materials there to escape into the environment, what sort of radius would be affected and how hazardous would it be?
I'm guessing it would be less hazardous than a Chernobyl style meltdown and should be pretty localised?
Uranium is fairly harmless. I wouldn’t eat any for your tea. But it oxidises on contact with air and uranium oxide is pretty stable.
Trying to get the enriched stuff the Iranians have to do anything other than sit there would be hard. Unless they are keeping it in one small room.
In many ways the highly enriched stuff is less dangerous: it's very long half lives means it's not constantly emiting radiation.
Still: uranium is pretty possible, iirc.
Toxic. It's pretty toxic. Not possible.
In the hazard books - it’s toxic, but the exposure levels for problems are pretty high. Mercury is far worse, IMHO.
A lump of uranium can sit on your desk - won’t do anything unless you grind it to dust and start inhaling it by the gram….
Don’t work in a uranium mine without breathing gear, though.
Harry Enten: "I think we can say Donald Trump has lost the political battle when it comes to what has happened in Los Angeles. Trump's net approval rating on LA - way, way underwater at -15 points... this is happening on what should be on Donald Trump's best issue ... he's losing on his core issue"
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
The Anschluss was between Austria and Germany which were both ethnically and linguistically German.
Whereas Iran is Persian and Iraq is Arab.
But underpinned by Shia Islam.
How well have countries based upon religious similarities succeeded ?
There was West/East Pakistan. Any others ?
Whereas countries based upon ethnic and linguistic similarities are widespread and do tend to succeed.
And this would be a case of union based upon similarity of a branch of religion.
Not to mention that 40% of Iraq isn't Shia.
Or that the Iraqi Shia would change from being a majority in their country to becoming a minority in a bigger country.
I think you missed the original discussion, if Iran gets nuked/the regime falls the plenty of Iranians will flee into neighbouring countries which has the potential to destabilise those countries.
During the Iran/Iraq war the Shias of Iran backed the Sunni Saddam Hussein but if a significant portion of Iran's population ends up in Iraq things will be complicated.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
It is a very scary time and certainly cheering Trump on to bomb Iran holds untold consequences not least with terrorist cells opening worldwide
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Trump dismissed Europe publicly yesterday
Well if Trump wants to be involved in another US backed war in the Middle East that is up to him, Europe will stay out, it has enough on its hands helping defend Ukraine
If he does, and it looks,likely, I think the MAGA lot are right, it will effectively finish his presidency and possibly MAGA.
It all depends how it turns out. If it's his Falklands Moment then it won't matter if MAGA opposed it and he'll be able to contrast it with the Bush era quagmire of 'if you break it, you own it' nation building.
Bush 41 only launched the first Gulf war with UN approval, even Bush 43 had a much bigger coalition with him than Trump will have if he attacks Iran alongside Israel
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
It is a very scary time and certainly cheering Trump on to bomb Iran holds untold consequences not least with terrorist cells opening worldwide
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Trump dismissed Europe publicly yesterday
Well if Trump wants to be involved in another US backed war in the Middle East that is up to him, Europe will stay out, it has enough on its hands helping defend Ukraine
If he does, and it looks,likely, I think the MAGA lot are right, it will effectively finish his presidency and possibly MAGA.
MAGA will continue but if Trump goes too neocon given he can't run again without the Trump family and GOP elite
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
It is a very scary time and certainly cheering Trump on to bomb Iran holds untold consequences not least with terrorist cells opening worldwide
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Trump dismissed Europe publicly yesterday
Well if Trump wants to be involved in another US backed war in the Middle East that is up to him, Europe will stay out, it has enough on its hands helping defend Ukraine
If he does, and it looks,likely, I think the MAGA lot are right, it will effectively finish his presidency and possibly MAGA.
It all depends how it turns out. If it's his Falklands Moment then it won't matter if MAGA opposed it and he'll be able to contrast it with the Bush era quagmire of 'if you break it, you own it' nation building.
Bush 41 only launched the first Gulf war with UN approval, even Bush 43 had a much bigger coalition with him than Trump will have if he attacks Iran alongside Israel
So you're saying that TRUMP will be able to take all the credit?
Harry Enten: "I think we can say Donald Trump has lost the political battle when it comes to what has happened in Los Angeles. Trump's net approval rating on LA - way, way underwater at -15 points... this is happening on what should be on Donald Trump's best issue ... he's losing on his core issue"
My aunt's last ex-husband (her fourth, I think), and father of my youngest cousin Emily, has just been arrested for grooming a fourteen year old girl online
My aunt ditched him about thirty years ago, and has been married to her fifth husband for more than twenty five years. I always thought he was weird, and quite possibly a wrongun, but had no idea he was that kind of wrongun..
My aunt's last ex-husband (her fourth, I think), and father of my youngest cousin Emily, has just been arrested for grooming a fourteen year old girl online
My aunt ditched him about thirty years ago, and has been married to her fifth husband for more than twenty five years. I always thought he was weird, and quite possibly a wrongun, but had no idea he was that kind of wrongun..
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Turkey will be one place they go.
Interesting answer. And true, of course
It's a border that's over 300 miles long.
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Any new leader with Israeli support will reign neither peacefully nor long. I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I know, one thing that people like Bart, POTUS, and Bibi don't seem realise is another possibility is full Anschluss between Iran and Iraq which would upset the balance.
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
It is a very scary time and certainly cheering Trump on to bomb Iran holds untold consequences not least with terrorist cells opening worldwide
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Trump dismissed Europe publicly yesterday
Well if Trump wants to be involved in another US backed war in the Middle East that is up to him, Europe will stay out, it has enough on its hands helping defend Ukraine
Likely UK will be involved in some form
Sir Kier Philby will do anything he can to put the economy into a death spiral, so we probably will.
Put it in - I thought he had already achieved that !!!!
My aunt's last ex-husband (her fourth, I think), and father of my youngest cousin Emily, has just been arrested for grooming a fourteen year old girl online
My aunt ditched him about thirty years ago, and has been married to her fifth husband for more than twenty five years. I always thought he was weird, and quite possibly a wrongun, but had no idea he was that kind of wrongun..
I hope you're using a pseudonym there. If not, think about deleting the name. It doesn't add anything and makes identifying the perpetrator easier.
My aunt's last ex-husband (her fourth, I think), and father of my youngest cousin Emily, has just been arrested for grooming a fourteen year old girl online
My aunt ditched him about thirty years ago, and has been married to her fifth husband for more than twenty five years. I always thought he was weird, and quite possibly a wrongun, but had no idea he was that kind of wrongun..
I hope you're using a pseudonym there. If not, think about deleting the name. It doesn't add anything and makes identifying the perpetrator easier.
Who the F came up with these awful Woke Overground names?
Windrush Suffragette Weaver…
Vomit
Day 1 of Big Nige’s government we change all these names to properly patriotic icons
I suggest
Agincourt Bomber Harris Falklands Ripper (serving east london) Potato Famine
Well you've introduced the 'Mildmay' to the conversation. Obviously proper Londoners entirely disregard such nonsense. You've spent too much time travelling. You've become unconsciously woke.
No cure I'm afraid, and we'll all have to permanently mark your card.
Out of curiosity, if a nuclear facility is attacked causing radiological materials there to escape into the environment, what sort of radius would be affected and how hazardous would it be?
I'm guessing it would be less hazardous than a Chernobyl style meltdown and should be pretty localised?
Uranium is fairly harmless. I wouldn’t eat any for your tea. But it oxidises on contact with air and uranium oxide is pretty stable.
Trying to get the enriched stuff the Iranians have to do anything other than sit there would be hard. Unless they are keeping it in one small room.
I'm more thinking of whether it could be neutralised, and whether it would be dangerous, rather than ignited.
I did think if there were no nuclear reactions that it wouldn't have fallout, but wasn't sure.
There's a whole area of research about the controlled transmutation of harmful nuclear waste into less harmful isotopes via neutron bombardment. It sounds great in theory - and I am a fan - but some isotopes are easy to transmutate; others transmutate into something *worse*, and others really resist the process, and you may end up with something worse than you began with.
Part of the problem is that you need to split (partition) the waste up; as what works with one isotope might make another worse. The partitioning is an incredibly difficult thing to do.
Who the F came up with these awful Woke Overground names?
Windrush Suffragette Weaver…
Vomit
Day 1 of Big Nige’s government we change all these names to properly patriotic icons
I suggest
Agincourt Bomber Harris Falklands Ripper (serving east london) Potato Famine
The name of the potato blight fungus is Phytophthora infestans which is a bit of a mouthful for a train line. If you were really wanting to rile the Irish up then you might have a line after Charles Boycott, and you could then innocently claim it was named in combined honour of the present King and the former England and Yorkshire opening bat.
Scoop: President Trump & Turkish President Erdoğan quietly sought to arrange a meeting between the U.S. and Iran in Istanbul last Monday. But the effort collapsed when Iran's supreme leader Khamenei couldn't be reached to approve it.
Who the F came up with these awful Woke Overground names?
Windrush Suffragette Weaver…
Vomit
Day 1 of Big Nige’s government we change all these names to properly patriotic icons
I suggest
Agincourt Bomber Harris Falklands Ripper (serving east london) Potato Famine
Windrush is okay as it goes through many of the traditional West Indian communities and so is easy to understand for those who know the demographic history.
I suggest the liberty line should be renamed the Clive to give some recognition to Indian immigrants.
Comments
Batman has his Batsignal, while Trump has his 🌮🔔
The bombers have entered the Pacific arena.
Their next stop is vital, if they land in Hawaii, they will likely move onto RAF Diego Garcia.
However, if they land in Guam, as we've pointed out, they can launch a silent attack directly on Iran.
Transcaspia (roughly today's Turkmenistan) was held between August 1918 and April 1919.
You do have to wonder about journalists who say they are going to ask them where they are coming from, and then receives a no nonsense rebuttal from them as they do not want to be on camera !!!!!
Speaking to some Iranian heritage friends they are pensive, they think if the regime falls then it's going to be a bloody mess.
The worst thing that can happen is if Israel/The West impose/endorse a new leader.
Actually there is one thing worse, if Israel/America kill the Supreme Leader. If you look at the early years of Shia Islam, there will be around 20% of the population that will want vengeance for that, if not more.
Hence why I keep saying he won't and that he's TACO.
Like an England fan saying how the entrenched opposition batsmen aren't going to get out.
It’s on, it’s happening, you’ll get your war.
Especially when the President is one of those chickens.
I don't see why this point isn't self-evident.
I suspect it’s on, I suspect Bart gets his war. I hope it’s just sabre rattling for a negotiation. I suspect not but I know nothing.
What comes after the bombing though and how long does it last ?
No one is going boots on the ground, there won’t be a ground offensive. Or at least I suspect not. So, given the US and its allies never really have a plan after the initial shock and awe will it be different this time.
Can't be for fuel as they already refuelled?
Something like that, I would imagine.
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1936444442476720213?s=61
Another consequence would be Saudi Arabia getting nukes or perhaps Pakistan sharing its nukes with Saudi Arabia.
So a combined assault makes sense, take it all out in one go?
Mind you there has never been a time since WW2 when Europe and NATO have looked so irrelevant
Trump dismissed Europe publicly yesterday
I'm guessing it would be less hazardous than a Chernobyl style meltdown and should be pretty localised?
So whilst Galloway's comment is pure cope, it's not beyond the realms of possibility that you'd want to do your test in secret.
IMO they'll do an Iraq and demolish all the infrastructure and then a Syria/Lebanon with non stop over flights with targeted assassinations and blowing up ambulances. No need to do anything else once you've destroyed the state and immiserated its people
Watch Parties will be hosted in South Lake Union and Redmond, depending on where the Orcas are playing. These events will feature big-screen broadcasts, food trucks, music, giveaways, official team merchandise, and a lively, welcoming atmosphere for both longtime fans and newcomers."
https://www.seattleorcas.com/news/seattle-orcas-announce-official-watch-parties-and-broadcast-lineup-for-major-league-cricket-season-three
The local Fox affiliate will be broadcasting some of the matches. (Yes, that's right, Fox.)
South Lake Union is Amazon's Seattle headquarters; Redmond, as I assume almost all of you know, is Microsoft's headquarters.
(For the record: I may watch parts of a few of the matches, mostly because I am still curious about some parts of Murder Must Advertise and Tinker, Tailor.
And it is time for reciprocity! London should have at least two minor league baseball teams, with others, throughout the UK.
The IRGC liaison with Hamas was the latest commander liquidated. Another they wouldn't have got if they'd followed your advice.
Whereas Iran is Persian and Iraq is Arab.
But taking out the IRGC/mullahs/nuclear facilities/terrorists is something to compliment, not criticise.
No thanks.
In the past it has only been Labour Govts that said no to the USA iirc, when Harold Wilson said No when it was about getting involved in Vietnam.
Are there other occasions when we stood aside?
Along with British Columbia, the US States of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, the NW section of Montana, as well as a slice of western Wyoming were all part of the Oregon Country, a condominium between the UK and USA between 1818 and 1846.
Chernobyl was particularly bad because the fire continued for a long time, and the winds took it in our direction. I don't know enough to know whether that's possible with a stockpile of enriched uranium that's bombed.
The Met Office have a model that was developed after Chernobyl to forecast this sort of thing, and they'll be running scenarios with a variety of assumptions for nuclear release.
There was West/East Pakistan. Any others ?
Whereas countries based upon ethnic and linguistic similarities are widespread and do tend to succeed.
And this would be a case of union based upon similarity of a branch of religion.
Not to mention that 40% of Iraq isn't Shia.
Or that the Iraqi Shia would change from being a majority in their country to becoming a minority in a bigger country.
Trying to get the enriched stuff the Iranians have to do anything other than sit there would be hard. Unless they are keeping it in one small room.
I did think if there were no nuclear reactions that it wouldn't have fallout, but wasn't sure.
Still: uranium is pretty possible, iirc.
Labour may no longer be on Iran's side as it would have been under Corbyn but that certainly doesn't mean it will back fighting with Israel either
IRANIUM!
And if he does nothing, they'll still think he has (which in that case he won't have).
They're not going to break with him.
Trump can always get the MAGA voters support by launching crackdowns on illegal immigrants.
A lump of uranium can sit on your desk - won’t do anything unless you grind it to dust and start inhaling it by the gram….
Don’t work in a uranium mine without breathing gear, though.
@atrupar.com
Harry Enten: "I think we can say Donald Trump has lost the political battle when it comes to what has happened in Los Angeles. Trump's net approval rating on LA - way, way underwater at -15 points... this is happening on what should be on Donald Trump's best issue ... he's losing on his core issue"
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3ls2fd7bruk2z
🇺🇸 🇺🇸 🇺🇸🇺🇸 🇺🇸
During the Iran/Iraq war the Shias of Iran backed the Sunni Saddam Hussein but if a significant portion of Iran's population ends up in Iraq things will be complicated.
Asking for a friend who has a nuclear bomb shelter in the garden and wondering when they might need to head into it.
Who the F came up with these awful Woke Overground names?
Windrush
Suffragette
Weaver…
Vomit
Day 1 of Big Nige’s government we change all these names to properly patriotic icons
I suggest
Agincourt
Bomber Harris
Falklands
Ripper (serving east london)
Potato Famine
MAGA voters are at most 20% of the electorate.
Not that it overly matters as Trump wont be running for election again.
My aunt's last ex-husband (her fourth, I think), and father of my youngest cousin Emily, has just been arrested for grooming a fourteen year old girl online
My aunt ditched him about thirty years ago, and has been married to her fifth husband for more than twenty five years. I always thought he was weird, and quite possibly a wrongun, but had no idea he was that kind of wrongun..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7s5pT3Rris
If not, think about deleting the name. It doesn't add anything and makes identifying the perpetrator easier.
Huge sympathy too.
No cure I'm afraid, and we'll all have to permanently mark your card.
e.g. https://earth.org/breakthrough-swiss-tech-cuts-radioactive-waste-in-nuclear-plants-by-80/
Part of the problem is that you need to split (partition) the waste up; as what works with one isotope might make another worse. The partitioning is an incredibly difficult thing to do.
Scoop: President Trump & Turkish President Erdoğan quietly sought to arrange a meeting between the U.S. and Iran in Istanbul last Monday. But the effort collapsed when Iran's supreme leader Khamenei couldn't be reached to approve it.
https://x.com/BarakRavid/status/1936453178863567343
I suggest the liberty line should be renamed the Clive to give some recognition to Indian immigrants.
Steve Bannon: “I’m just reporting what I’m hearing from pretty good sources—the party is on.”