'Sir Mel Stride has vowed the Tories will never make a pact with Reform as he attacked the party’s “fantasy economics”.
The shadow chancellor said Nigel Farage’s party would put the economy on “the road to ruin” and said: “I don’t want to be a populist that runs around saying we can do this, that and everything else for you without any plan behind it. I just think that’s recklessness.”
Literally no one cares what "Sir Mel Stride" says or does or thinks. The Tories aren't even in the game, everyone hates them, they have not been forgiven for fourteen years of failure, and may never be. They need to shut up, dissolve themselves, and fold into Reform as some kind of comic subordinate entity
"Sir Mel Stride". It's ridiculous. His party fucked the country a million times, and allowed in a million migrants a year. Why should we pay an iota of attention? There is zero reason, the Tories are dying and will soon be dead
Mind you, things aren't that much better for Starmer. Look at his polling in that Ipsos survey
"Sir Keir Starmer is shown to be the least popular prime minister at this stage of his term in office since Ipsos began compiling such records almost half a century ago. Just 19 per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with the job he is doing, with 73 per cent dissatisfied."
OUCH
Immigration is now falling thanks to the reforms Sunak brought in and Stride is more of a fiscal conservative than Farage is.
Not all Tories would join Reform even if the Conservative party ceased to exist, at least a third of current Tories would go LD in that scenario
I feel genuinely sorry for honest, loyal Tory party members like you. It's your leaders and MPs that have catastrophically let you down, year after year. Your loyalty has been abused by chancers, morons and wankers
But, I think this might be Closing Time for the Conservative Party
Good afternoon
At least they will have one vote from me [possible 2 with my wife's]
I simply do not accept Reform are the answer, anymore than Labour, but if it comes about then so be it
And please do not be sorry for me as at my time of life politics is only a passing interest, as my wife and I pass 63 years together [61 married] and enjoy a wonderful family even with a somewhat failing health outlook
'Sir Mel Stride has vowed the Tories will never make a pact with Reform as he attacked the party’s “fantasy economics”.
The shadow chancellor said Nigel Farage’s party would put the economy on “the road to ruin” and said: “I don’t want to be a populist that runs around saying we can do this, that and everything else for you without any plan behind it. I just think that’s recklessness.”
Literally no one cares what "Sir Mel Stride" says or does or thinks. The Tories aren't even in the game, everyone hates them, they have not been forgiven for fourteen years of failure, and may never be. They need to shut up, dissolve themselves, and fold into Reform as some kind of comic subordinate entity
"Sir Mel Stride". It's ridiculous. His party fucked the country a million times, and allowed in a million migrants a year. Why should we pay an iota of attention? There is zero reason, the Tories are dying and will soon be dead
Mind you, things aren't that much better for Starmer. Look at his polling in that Ipsos survey
"Sir Keir Starmer is shown to be the least popular prime minister at this stage of his term in office since Ipsos began compiling such records almost half a century ago. Just 19 per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with the job he is doing, with 73 per cent dissatisfied."
OUCH
Immigration is now falling thanks to the reforms Sunak brought in and Stride is more of a fiscal conservative than Farage is.
Not all Tories would join Reform even if the Conservative party ceased to exist, at least a third of current Tories would go LD in that scenario
It is not for that useless oaf to say who the Tory Party will or will not be doing a pact with. Someone might like to point him in the direction of the Government that he's supposed to be opposing - all I see from him is right-on-right attacks.
Sack him and appoint Hunt. He's had his knighthood - now do one.
Once you find a black hole in your home, worrying about all the other things the Daily Fail is incessantly alarmist about surely recedes, such that this article is undermining the paper’s USP?
“Tucker Carlson: “If I were Putin, I would offer free first class trips to Moscow so they could see that Moscow was so much nicer than any place in Great Britain. It's like not even close…It's just weird that they're mad at Putin. Why aren't they mad at Keir Starmer? Britain is so degraded”
“Tucker Carlson: “If I were Putin, I would offer free first class trips to Moscow so they could see that Moscow was so much nicer than any place in Great Britain. It's like not even close…It's just weird that they're mad at Putin. Why aren't they mad at Keir Starmer? Britain is so degraded”
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
How could anyone on X possibly know that?
BREAKING:
6 B-2 stealth bombers are heading west toward Guam.
The bombers were reportedly refueled shortly after takeoff, strongly indicating they are carrying a heavy payload, likely operational bunker-busting ordnance.
"relating to or involving the doctrines or principles of the Hindu or Buddhist tantras, in particular the use of mantras, meditation, yoga, and ritual."
Not sure Reform would appreciate that sort coming over here.
Thank you for the article. I enjoyed it and its predecessors. I look forward to the next entry, as I'm sure we all do. The published ones in Gareth's "The Challenge For..." series are:
I’ve never been convinced voters vote on class, not just today, but have never ever really. Surely people vote on values and outlook that cuts across all classes?
The Conservative Party always attracted millions of working class voters - more when winning, but still millions when losing. If the Conservative Party is getting 40% or more of working class voters all the time, can you really say Labour own the working classes? I’m not convinced. I think it lazy.
On YouTube but I can’t find it There is a tribute documentary about the person who wrote Alf Garnet. It’s starts by praising him for brilliant historic television, and asked how did you create this. The creator pulls a wry smile and takes them to interview patrons in one of his favourite Isle of Dogs pub. There were people looking sounding exactly like Alf Garnet but solid Labour, sat round table trashing Lady Thatcher for wrecking Britain, arguing with mates looking sounding exactly like Alf Garnet but solid Tory through and through, praising Maggie for saving Britain from decline, restoring us on world stage, and caring for working classes like bickering Trotsky Labour could never do.
Did he create it, or observe reality and write the comedy of it down?
You see it in media all the time “LABOUR IN TROUBLE this poll shows this is working class voters - WORKING CLASS VOTERS - going to Reform.”
Yeah, but, how do you know that’s not actually the millions solid Tory working class, not many from solid Labour working class? Eh? You stupid stupid thicko journalists?
"relating to or involving the doctrines or principles of the Hindu or Buddhist tantras, in particular the use of mantras, meditation, yoga, and ritual."
Not sure Reform would appreciate that coming over here.
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
How could anyone on X possibly know that?
BREAKING:
6 B-2 stealth bombers are heading west toward Guam.
The bombers were reportedly refueled shortly after takeoff, strongly indicating they are carrying a heavy payload, likely operational bunker-busting ordnance.
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
How could anyone on X possibly know that?
BREAKING:
6 B-2 stealth bombers are heading west toward Guam.
The bombers were reportedly refueled shortly after takeoff, strongly indicating they are carrying a heavy payload, likely operational bunker-busting ordnance.
"relating to or involving the doctrines or principles of the Hindu or Buddhist tantras, in particular the use of mantras, meditation, yoga, and ritual."
Not sure Reform would appreciate that sort coming over here.
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
How could anyone on X possibly know that?
BREAKING:
6 B-2 stealth bombers are heading west toward Guam.
The bombers were reportedly refueled shortly after takeoff, strongly indicating they are carrying a heavy payload, likely operational bunker-busting ordnance.
It's true, it's a real poll, just a little stale (fieldwork ended June 4). Odd they've waited so long to release it
It's on Ipsos website so it's genuine. Very similar to Find Out Now with Ref a touch up from their polling at the time and Con a point lower and LDs lower. It's within MoE of end May polling generally
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
How could anyone on X possibly know that?
BREAKING:
6 B-2 stealth bombers are heading west toward Guam.
The bombers were reportedly refueled shortly after takeoff, strongly indicating they are carrying a heavy payload, likely operational bunker-busting ordnance.
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
How could anyone on X possibly know that?
BREAKING:
6 B-2 stealth bombers are heading west toward Guam.
The bombers were reportedly refueled shortly after takeoff, strongly indicating they are carrying a heavy payload, likely operational bunker-busting ordnance.
Pakistan has said it will recommend Donald Trump for the Nobel peace prize for his work in helping to resolve the recent conflict between India and Pakistan.
Thank you for the article. I enjoyed it and its predecessors. I look forward to the next entry, as I'm sure we all do. The published ones in Gareth's "The Challenge For..." series are:
I’ve never been convinced voters vote on class, not just today, but have never ever really. Surely people vote on values and outlook that cuts across all classes?
The Conservative Party always attracted millions of working class voters - more when winning, but still millions when losing. If the Conservative Party is getting 40% or more of working class voters all the time, can you really say Labour own the working classes? I’m not convinced. I think it lazy.
On YouTube but I can’t find it There is a tribute documentary about the person who wrote Alf Garnet. It’s starts by praising him for brilliant historic television, and asked how did you create this. The creator pulls a wry smile and takes them to interview patrons in one of his favourite Isle of Dogs pub. There were people looking sounding exactly like Alf Garnet but solid Labour, sat round table trashing Lady Thatcher for wrecking Britain, arguing with mates looking sounding exactly like Alf Garnet but solid Tory through and through, praising Maggie for saving Britain from decline, restoring us on world stage, and caring for working classes like bickering Trotsky Labour could never do.
Did he create it, or observe reality and write the comedy of it down?
You see it in media all the time “LABOUR IN TROUBLE this poll shows this is working class voters - WORKING CLASS VOTERS - going to Reform.”
Yeah, but, how do you know that’s not actually the millions solid Tory working class, not many from solid Labour working class? Eh? You stupid stupid thicko journalists?
In the Fifties it used to be that a third of working class voters voted Tory, and a tenth of the rest voted Labour. This left the Parties roughly equal. The class element has declined ever since then. You can work out voting intentions by numerous other more significant metrics nowadays. Most especially "Is it more important for a child to be obedient or kind?" It's a remarkably sticky idea, mind.
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
How could anyone on X possibly know that?
BREAKING:
6 B-2 stealth bombers are heading west toward Guam.
The bombers were reportedly refueled shortly after takeoff, strongly indicating they are carrying a heavy payload, likely operational bunker-busting ordnance.
Bombers flew out from Whiteman last night, it looks possible we go tonight
Although *we* haven't been consulted, and don't appear to be involved.
We have certainly been consulted because they are using Diego Garcia, and they can only do that with our permission. This may be a technicality (would we ever refuse?), but it is honoured
It's true, it's a real poll, just a little stale (fieldwork ended June 4). Odd they've waited so long to release it
It's on Ipsos website so it's genuine. Very similar to Find Out Now with Ref a touch up from their polling at the time and Con a point lower and LDs lower. It's within MoE of end May polling generally
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
How could anyone on X possibly know that?
BREAKING:
6 B-2 stealth bombers are heading west toward Guam.
The bombers were reportedly refueled shortly after takeoff, strongly indicating they are carrying a heavy payload, likely operational bunker-busting ordnance.
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
All those $100bns of developing a Stealth bomber and the world can know where they are doing thanks to social media.
One of the interesting "tricks" that China insists on, all the GPS mapping data they provide to the world is deliberately wrong.
One of the first things that US recon satellites were used for was creating accurate maps of the USSR.
The second thing was as an accurate gravimetric model of the world. Gravity varies slightly from locality to locality - things like basalt have higher density.
It's true, it's a real poll, just a little stale (fieldwork ended June 4). Odd they've waited so long to release it
It's on Ipsos website so it's genuine. Very similar to Find Out Now with Ref a touch up from their polling at the time and Con a point lower and LDs lower. It's within MoE of end May polling generally
Kieran Pedley the new Matthew Goodwin
It's not that jaw dropping. Reform one point above their previous best, Tories one below a score they got with three other pollsters around the same time, Lab in line, LDs a little low, greens on average.
Photo for the day: grey clouds break the heatwave at Hilly Fields midsummer fair (they spell it “Fayre” to channel a bit of olde England).
Coconut shy, bric-à-brac stalls, a petting zoo area, central arena with competitions like cutest dog, and various food vans. A few Palestine flags fluttering in the midsummer breeze.
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
How could anyone on X possibly know that?
BREAKING:
6 B-2 stealth bombers are heading west toward Guam.
The bombers were reportedly refueled shortly after takeoff, strongly indicating they are carrying a heavy payload, likely operational bunker-busting ordnance.
OK this is a betting site, let's put some numbers down
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
OK this is a betting site, let's put some numbers down
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
Willing to take bets on each
If they have already taken off then where are they going that takes 36 hours?
And I can't see the isolationists wanting to get involved and I can't see the cold warriors wanting to tell Russia and China that tactical nukes are fair dinkum in an undeclared war.
OK this is a betting site, let's put some numbers down
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
How could anyone on X possibly know that?
There are plane spotters camped outside the Whitman fence. Any time something takes off, they report it.
Yeah, people have eyes, and stealth planes aren’t actually invisible.
They're not?? The USAF should ask for its money back, then!!
That’s why the USAF actually calls it Low Observable, not Stealth. LO refers to signature reduction across the electromagnetic spectrum as well as noise reduction.
OK this is a betting site, let's put some numbers down
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
Willing to take bets on each
“ melt like weird goo down our ashen face”
It better not I’ve just put a clean top on!
I’m thinking it’s longer odds the bunker busting bombs can actually do this one.
I think they actually need to deploy ground troops at the site, seize and hold whilst dismantle it take it away and blow rest up from inside. What % chance Moonrabbits operation is the eventual solution?
Trump will give Starmer a medal for the part newly long term secured Garcia plays.
OK this is a betting site, let's put some numbers down
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
Willing to take bets on each
If they have already taken off then where are they going that takes 36 hours?
And I can't see the isolationists wanting to get involved and I can't see the cold warriors wanting to tell Russia and China that tactical nukes are fair dinkum in an undeclared war.
The isolationists in general aren't an issue, they'll swallow whatever Trump offers them.
The bigger problem is that TACO is one of them himself.
OK this is a betting site, let's put some numbers down
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
Willing to take bets on each
If they have already taken off then where are they going that takes 36 hours?
And I can't see the isolationists wanting to get involved and I can't see the cold warriors wanting to tell Russia and China that tactical nukes are fair dinkum in an undeclared war.
OK this is a betting site, let's put some numbers down
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
Willing to take bets on each
If they have already taken off then where are they going that takes 36 hours?
And I can't see the isolationists wanting to get involved and I can't see the cold warriors wanting to tell Russia and China that tactical nukes are fair dinkum in an undeclared war.
How big an explosion would it be if they hit Fordow? Could it be a potential Krakatoa?
Unless the Iranians have actually constructed a no-point safe nuclear bomb - a nuclear bomb that can yield significantly with a single point of detonation* - there is no possibility of a nuclear explosion from merely blowing up a pile of enriched uranium.
There is a vanishingly tiny possibly that in the aftermath of a collapse, if the enriched material was stored very close together *and* the site flooded, they could end up with an Oklo style nuclear reactor, bubbling away under the mountain. But that would require something idiotic, like keeping all the material in a single room.
*The UK Violet Club was very, very unsafe. You could get Nagasaki just if a plane crashed with the bomb in the wrong state. The 1950s RAF said it was too dangerous.
OK this is a betting site, let's put some numbers down
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
Willing to take bets on each
If they have already taken off then where are they going that takes 36 hours?
And I can't see the isolationists wanting to get involved and I can't see the cold warriors wanting to tell Russia and China that tactical nukes are fair dinkum in an undeclared war.
How big an explosion would it be if they hit Fordow? Could it be a potential Krakatoa?
Unless the Iranians have actually constructed a no-point safe nuclear bomb - a nuclear bomb that can yield significantly with a single point of detonation* - there is no possibility of a nuclear explosion from merely blowing up a pile of enriched uranium.
There is a vanishingly tiny possibly that in the aftermath of a collapse, if the enriched material was stored very close together *and* the site flooded, they could end up with an Oklo style nuclear reactor, bubbling away under the mountain. But that would require something idiotic, like keeping all the material in a single room.
*The UK Violet Club was very, very unsafe. You could get Nagasaki just if a plane crashed with the bomb in the wrong state. The 1950s RAF said it was too dangerous.
"relating to or involving the doctrines or principles of the Hindu or Buddhist tantras, in particular the use of mantras, meditation, yoga, and ritual."
Not sure Reform would appreciate that sort coming over here.
“Tucker Carlson: “If I were Putin, I would offer free first class trips to Moscow so they could see that Moscow was so much nicer than any place in Great Britain. It's like not even close…It's just weird that they're mad at Putin. Why aren't they mad at Keir Starmer? Britain is so degraded”
Standing outside St. Basil’s Cathedral and wondering about what lunatic/genius could have designed it, is worth the money it costs to get to Moscow. IMHO the most wonderful building in the world. ( I never went inside. No idea if it is functional or not )
How big an explosion would it be if they hit Fordow? Could it be a potential Krakatoa?
Unless the Iranians have actually constructed a no-point safe nuclear bomb - a nuclear bomb that can yield significantly with a single point of detonation* - there is no possibility of a nuclear explosion from merely blowing up a pile of enriched uranium.
There is a vanishingly tiny possibly that in the aftermath of a collapse, if the enriched material was stored very close together *and* the site flooded, they could end up with an Oklo style nuclear reactor, bubbling away under the mountain. But that would require something idiotic, like keeping all the material in a single room.
*The UK Violet Club was very, very unsafe. You could get Nagasaki just if a plane crashed with the bomb in the wrong state. The 1950s RAF said it was too dangerous.
How big an explosion would it be if they hit Fordow? Could it be a potential Krakatoa?
Unless the Iranians have actually constructed a no-point safe nuclear bomb - a nuclear bomb that can yield significantly with a single point of detonation* - there is no possibility of a nuclear explosion from merely blowing up a pile of enriched uranium.
There is a vanishingly tiny possibly that in the aftermath of a collapse, if the enriched material was stored very close together *and* the site flooded, they could end up with an Oklo style nuclear reactor, bubbling away under the mountain. But that would require something idiotic, like keeping all the material in a single room.
*The UK Violet Club was very, very unsafe. You could get Nagasaki just if a plane crashed with the bomb in the wrong state. The 1950s RAF said it was too dangerous.
Sounds like a fun science experiment.
Violet Club? Don’t drop it…
The second paragraph, getting a liquefied Fordow bubbling away. Sounds fun.
OK this is a betting site, let's put some numbers down
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
Willing to take bets on each
If they have already taken off then where are they going that takes 36 hours?
And I can't see the isolationists wanting to get involved and I can't see the cold warriors wanting to tell Russia and China that tactical nukes are fair dinkum in an undeclared war.
The isolationists in general aren't an issue, they'll swallow whatever Trump offers them.
The bigger problem is that TACO is one of them himself.
How big an explosion would it be if they hit Fordow? Could it be a potential Krakatoa?
Unless the Iranians have actually constructed a no-point safe nuclear bomb - a nuclear bomb that can yield significantly with a single point of detonation* - there is no possibility of a nuclear explosion from merely blowing up a pile of enriched uranium.
There is a vanishingly tiny possibly that in the aftermath of a collapse, if the enriched material was stored very close together *and* the site flooded, they could end up with an Oklo style nuclear reactor, bubbling away under the mountain. But that would require something idiotic, like keeping all the material in a single room.
*The UK Violet Club was very, very unsafe. You could get Nagasaki just if a plane crashed with the bomb in the wrong state. The 1950s RAF said it was too dangerous.
OK this is a betting site, let's put some numbers down
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
Willing to take bets on each
If they have already taken off then where are they going that takes 36 hours?
And I can't see the isolationists wanting to get involved and I can't see the cold warriors wanting to tell Russia and China that tactical nukes are fair dinkum in an undeclared war.
The isolationists in general aren't an issue, they'll swallow whatever Trump offers them.
The bigger problem is that TACO is one of them himself.
USAF flies over to distract Iran while IDF conducts a ground raid. No American shots fired. Everyone is happy.
OK this is a betting site, let's put some numbers down
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
Willing to take bets on each
If they have already taken off then where are they going that takes 36 hours?
And I can't see the isolationists wanting to get involved and I can't see the cold warriors wanting to tell Russia and China that tactical nukes are fair dinkum in an undeclared war.
The isolationists in general aren't an issue, they'll swallow whatever Trump offers them.
The bigger problem is that TACO is one of them himself.
USAF flies over to distract Iran while IDF conducts a ground raid. No American shots fired. Everyone is happy.
Knowing Trump's rather peculiar swings of mood, can we rule out his bombing Israel?
(Either through malice, stupidity, or pointing to the wrong place on a map...)
“Tucker Carlson: “If I were Putin, I would offer free first class trips to Moscow so they could see that Moscow was so much nicer than any place in Great Britain. It's like not even close…It's just weird that they're mad at Putin. Why aren't they mad at Keir Starmer? Britain is so degraded”
The saddest thing here is that Tucker Carlson has a point. Not so much about Moscow - it’s a showpiece city for a tyranny - but about Britain
Moscow’s a fascinating place, one of the most interesting cities I’ve visited, but I wouldn’t call it “nice.” A bit bleak and austere, I thought.
I haven't been to Moscow for 20 years. All my recent visits were to St Petersburg and the north
I am highly minded to go back. Could be a Gazette article in seeing is Tucker is right
Moscow is the centre of the Russian Empire that stays rich by extracting wealth from the rest of Russia. It’s entirely unsurprising that it appears wealthy - it is! Meanwhile vast swathes of Russia don’t even have paved roads.
Even some "cities" don't have proper paved roads. They have half empty decaying concrete buildings.
The best comparison for a city like Norilisk is Johannesburg. Crime ridden, poor, corrupt, with infrastructure that increasingly fails and sinking ever further into the abyss.
OK I just checked
You're talking nonsense
Here is street life in Omsk in August 2024. Omsk is an industrial city in Siberia, so one might expect it to be grim. And certainly there is a lot of concrete and the pavements are sometimes shabby. But there are also shiny new shops, it all looks orderly, there is - note this - almost no litter or graffiti. Is this really vastly worse than one of the poorer industrial cities in Britain?
I'm not convinced. What it certainly isn't, is Johannesburg
Fun fact: British military advisors were stationed in Omsk during the Russian Civil War, but only for about 6 months before the Reds defeated the White regional government based there.
So Omsk is British?
Along with Baku which the British held alongside the Armenians against the Turks for several weeks in 1918. There was even a small British fleet on the Caspian Sea.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
OK this is a betting site, let's put some numbers down
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
Willing to take bets on each
If they have already taken off then where are they going that takes 36 hours?
And I can't see the isolationists wanting to get involved and I can't see the cold warriors wanting to tell Russia and China that tactical nukes are fair dinkum in an undeclared war.
The isolationists in general aren't an issue, they'll swallow whatever Trump offers them.
The bigger problem is that TACO is one of them himself.
USAF flies over to distract Iran while IDF conducts a ground raid. No American shots fired. Everyone is happy.
Knowing Trump's rather peculiar swings of mood, can we rule out his bombing Israel?
(Either through malice, stupidity, or pointing to the wrong place on a map...)
Thank you for the article. I enjoyed it and its predecessors. I look forward to the next entry, as I'm sure we all do. The published ones in Gareth's "The Challenge For..." series are:
I’ve never been convinced voters vote on class, not just today, but have never ever really. Surely people vote on values and outlook that cuts across all classes?
The Conservative Party always attracted millions of working class voters - more when winning, but still millions when losing. If the Conservative Party is getting 40% or more of working class voters all the time, can you really say Labour own the working classes? I’m not convinced. I think it lazy.
On YouTube but I can’t find it There is a tribute documentary about the person who wrote Alf Garnet. It’s starts by praising him for brilliant historic television, and asked how did you create this. The creator pulls a wry smile and takes them to interview patrons in one of his favourite Isle of Dogs pub. There were people looking sounding exactly like Alf Garnet but solid Labour, sat round table trashing Lady Thatcher for wrecking Britain, arguing with mates looking sounding exactly like Alf Garnet but solid Tory through and through, praising Maggie for saving Britain from decline, restoring us on world stage, and caring for working classes like bickering Trotsky Labour could never do.
Did he create it, or observe reality and write the comedy of it down?
You see it in media all the time “LABOUR IN TROUBLE this poll shows this is working class voters - WORKING CLASS VOTERS - going to Reform.”
Yeah, but, how do you know that’s not actually the millions solid Tory working class, not many from solid Labour working class? Eh? You stupid stupid thicko journalists?
When I lived on the Isle of Dogs over thirty years ago, there were few of what I would call 'genuine' pubs left. The Gun (though I'm unsure it was called that back then...) by the river on the eastern side of the island was one.
I wonder which pub he took the documentary crew to in order to get these authentic people?
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
There is a lot of overlap in population between South East Turkey and North West Iran. And the Iranians have been important in keeping the Kurdish sepratists oppressed so making it easier for Turkey to do the same on their side of the border.
Having seen what happened with the Kurds after Iraq fell apart I am not surprised the Turks want to avoid the same fate befalling Iran.
Strong rumours on X that US stealth bombers are now heading - "heavily loaded" - towards Iran. Looks like this could be it
How could anyone on X possibly know that?
BREAKING:
6 B-2 stealth bombers are heading west toward Guam.
The bombers were reportedly refueled shortly after takeoff, strongly indicating they are carrying a heavy payload, likely operational bunker-busting ordnance.
Bombers flew out from Whiteman last night, it looks possible we go tonight
Even if all this is true, you'd expect the USAF to keep people guessing with exercises that look like this, particularly if Trump is pushing hard for a deal.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
Erdigan says "the fate of Tehran and Istanbul are one."
What does Erdogan gain from this? Peculiar. Is it simple Islamic loyalty? Something he feels he must say, and pay lip service? Or some deeper strategic move?
Turkey shares a border with Iran, if the Iranian regime is toppled or Iran gets nuked there's going be plenty of Iranians fleeing to other countries.
How big an explosion would it be if they hit Fordow? Could it be a potential Krakatoa?
Unless the Iranians have actually constructed a no-point safe nuclear bomb - a nuclear bomb that can yield significantly with a single point of detonation* - there is no possibility of a nuclear explosion from merely blowing up a pile of enriched uranium.
There is a vanishingly tiny possibly that in the aftermath of a collapse, if the enriched material was stored very close together *and* the site flooded, they could end up with an Oklo style nuclear reactor, bubbling away under the mountain. But that would require something idiotic, like keeping all the material in a single room.
*The UK Violet Club was very, very unsafe. You could get Nagasaki just if a plane crashed with the bomb in the wrong state. The 1950s RAF said it was too dangerous.
Sounds like a fun science experiment.
Violet Club? Don’t drop it…
The second paragraph, getting a liquefied Fordow bubbling away. Sounds fun.
If Oklo is any indication, it would bubble away gently in the heart of the mountain for millions of years at a low rate. It would probably pulse - the reaction would poison itself with daughter isotopes (Xenon) and water would be driven off as steam. Then, a few hours later it would restart.
Comments
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/06/21/reform-set-to-win-next-election/
At least they will have one vote from me [possible 2 with my wife's]
I simply do not accept Reform are the answer, anymore than Labour, but if it comes about then so be it
And please do not be sorry for me as at my time of life politics is only a passing interest, as my wife and I pass 63 years together [61 married] and enjoy a wonderful family even with a somewhat failing health outlook
Maybe I'll wait a bit for my Russian trip
One of the interesting "tricks" that China insists on, all the GPS mapping data they provide to the world is deliberately wrong.
Sack him and appoint Hunt. He's had his knighthood - now do one.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GUM_(department_store)
So cruel and unkind
6 B-2 stealth bombers are heading west toward Guam.
The bombers were reportedly refueled shortly after takeoff, strongly indicating they are carrying a heavy payload, likely operational bunker-busting ordnance.
https://x.com/Currentreport1/status/1936414485587067023
Adjective
"relating to or involving the doctrines or principles of the Hindu or Buddhist tantras, in particular the use of mantras, meditation, yoga, and ritual."
Not sure Reform would appreciate that sort coming over here.
The Conservative Party always attracted millions of working class voters - more when winning, but still millions when losing. If the Conservative Party is getting 40% or more of working class voters all the time, can you really say Labour own the working classes? I’m not convinced. I think it lazy.
On YouTube but I can’t find it There is a tribute documentary about the person who wrote Alf Garnet. It’s starts by praising him for brilliant historic television, and asked how did you create this. The creator pulls a wry smile and takes them to interview patrons in one of his favourite Isle of Dogs pub. There were people looking sounding exactly like Alf Garnet but solid Labour, sat round table trashing Lady Thatcher for wrecking Britain, arguing with mates looking sounding exactly like Alf Garnet but solid Tory through and through, praising Maggie for saving Britain from decline, restoring us on world stage, and caring for working classes like bickering Trotsky Labour could never do.
Did he create it, or observe reality and write the comedy of it down?
You see it in media all the time “LABOUR IN TROUBLE this poll shows this is working class voters - WORKING CLASS VOTERS - going to Reform.”
Yeah, but, how do you know that’s not actually the millions solid Tory working class, not many from solid Labour working class? Eh? You stupid stupid thicko journalists?
*rubs geopolitical thighs*
It would be immensely ironic if the main reason that Trump is doing this - if he is doing this - is because he's annoyed by all the TACO jibes
Under any other President it would have happened by now, but under President Chicken TACO?
This left the Parties roughly equal.
The class element has declined ever since then.
You can work out voting intentions by numerous other more significant metrics nowadays.
Most especially "Is it more important for a child to be obedient or kind?"
It's a remarkably sticky idea, mind.
I feel it in my waters.
The second thing was as an accurate gravimetric model of the world. Gravity varies slightly from locality to locality - things like basalt have higher density.
You need both to accurately target missiles.
Coconut shy, bric-à-brac stalls, a petting zoo area, central arena with competitions like cutest dog, and various food vans. A few Palestine flags fluttering in the midsummer breeze.
"Jim, be careful!"
An indignant Dr McCoy then quips:
"WE will!"
I reckon it's a 68% chance they are going for the Fordow nuclear mountain, and they bomb in the next 36 hours
I reckon it's a 74% chance that if they do bomb, they successfully destroy it entirely, probably aided by Israeli special ops
However I reckon it's only a 14% chance that this turns into a global nuclear conflagration which rages around the world in a satanic firestorm of death, and all of humanity is exterminated as our eyeballs literally melt like weird goo down our ashen faces. Maybe 15%
Willing to take bets on each
And I can't see the isolationists wanting to get involved and I can't see the cold warriors wanting to tell Russia and China that tactical nukes are fair dinkum in an undeclared war.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAXzzHM8zLw&pp=ygUVc3BpbmFsIHRhcCBzdG9uZWhlbmdl
It better not I’ve just put a clean top on!
I’m thinking it’s longer odds the bunker busting bombs can actually do this one.
I think they actually need to deploy ground troops at the site, seize and hold whilst dismantle it take it away and blow rest up from inside. What % chance Moonrabbits operation is the eventual solution?
Trump will give Starmer a medal for the part newly long term secured Garcia plays.
The bigger problem is that TACO is one of them himself.
https://www.airandspaceforces.com/PDF/MagazineArchive/Documents/2016/December 2016/1216hours.pdf
There is a vanishingly tiny possibly that in the aftermath of a collapse, if the enriched material was stored very close together *and* the site flooded, they could end up with an Oklo style nuclear reactor, bubbling away under the mountain. But that would require something idiotic, like keeping all the material in a single room.
*The UK Violet Club was very, very unsafe. You could get Nagasaki just if a plane crashed with the bomb in the wrong state. The 1950s RAF said it was too dangerous.
Jack Draper loses Queen's Club semi against Czech Jiri Lehecka.
6-4, 4-6, 7-5.
Unfortunately the catch stuck.
Ipsos are only carrying out online polls from now on, no more phone polls.
Pakistan to nominate Donald Trump for Nobel peace prize
Islamabad says US president helped resolve India conflict but critic says ‘Israel’s sugar daddy in Gaza’ not candidate for any prize
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/21/pakistan-trump-nobel-prize-recommendation-india-ceasefire
Or they just have a wicked sense of humour.
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/meet-oklo-the-earths-two-billion-year-old-only-known-natural-nuclear-reactor
(Either through malice, stupidity, or pointing to the wrong place on a map...)
I wonder which pub he took the documentary crew to in order to get these authentic people?
Having seen what happened with the Kurds after Iraq fell apart I am not surprised the Turks want to avoid the same fate befalling Iran.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1936430152788951499?s=61
Turkey will be one place they go.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_nuclear_fission_reactor