politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The debates: The broadcaster up the ante and threaten to em

antifrank said:

Roger said:

Antifrank

"That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either. "

Only a Tory would find that effective in the same way a non Tory would find a mug shot of Cameron and 'Five More Years' (or any variation thereof) effective

It's a brutal personal attack on someone who is widely thought to be not up to the job. The Conservatives are going to make Ed Miliband's abysmal public image a centrepiece of their campaign. I expect this is just a warm-up.

To answer Old King Cole's point: I don't think Alex Salmond is particularly unpopular in England. But the idea is that Ed Miliband will be duped by a smarter operator.

Hmmm. I thought the Tories were bringing in the bogeyman who almost took Scotland out the Union.
If your message isn't clear .......

Theuniondivvie said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

Quite.
Not sure if it will fill any authentic Unionists with joy though.

Why not. I don't think many unionists support the SNP?

What a strange take Mike has come up with. It's obviously not Cameron who might be tempted to refuse the invitation. Out of Miliband, Farage, Clegg and Cameron, the happiest with the proposed new format is Cameron.

Pong said:

Tissue_Price said:

Pong said:

The losers in this are the Lib Dems & Farage. Oh and Ed probably isn't too happy about the exposure given to the left wing alternatives.

The massive winners are Plaid. Lucky buggers.

Of course, this analysis starts from the premise of the initial debate proposal, in which Cameron was a massive loser. In net terms he still is, compared to no debates at all, but I don't think that was ever a massive runner, notwithstanding any legal impediment.

Sure. The debates, in some form, were always going to happen. Dave's strategy had to be;

A ) Minimise UKIP's exposure
B ) Boost the SNP/Greens/Plaid

He's played his hand well so far.

For the avoidance of doubt, I am definitely not a tory. I've only voted tory once, when they had the least worst candidate in the ridiculous PCC election.

Wear shades to the debate

Richard_Nabavi said:

What a strange take Mike has come up with. It's obviously not Cameron who might be tempted to refuse the invitation. Out of Miliband, Farage, Clegg and Cameron, the happiest with the proposed new format is Cameron.

Hardly, Cameron is the only one threatening to flounce so far.

timmo said:

antifrank said:

The Lib Dems won't challenge the debate format. A bad debate format is better than no debates for the Lib Dems. The debates are one of the few possible game-changers that they have.

Not sure about that..Just recall what happened when Clegg took on Farage..he was soundly spanked.
Best maybe to keep hos head down and the LDs keep him off their leaflets.

Nah, UKIP is a gift to the Lib Dems. Clegg is at his absolute best when he's arguing liberal principles. It goes down well, especially with women in the university/middle classy seats that the LD's are trying to hold.

http://metro.co.uk/2015/01/08/charlie-hebdo-nick-cleggs-incredible-take-down-of-lbc-caller-who-blamed-west-for-attack-5013934/

Let me have men about me that are fat,
Sleek-headed men and such as sleep a-nights.
Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look.
He thinks too much. Such men are dangerous.

Perhaps The Tories will re-use David Low - 'Someone is taking someone for a walk'.

Not something I say often, but well done Ruth Davidson.

Ruth Davidson MSP ‏@RuthDavidsonMSP 53m53 minutes ago
Flying flags at half mast on gov buildings for the death of Saudi king is a steaming pile of nonsense. That is all.

We're not going to go easy on unpopular politicians because of the constant fear you'll leave.

Yes but Ed Miliband would, that's the point of the poster, isn't it??

Conservatives, the party that isnt going to get intimidated by a bunch of braying nats

Eastwinger said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

What a strange take Mike has come up with. It's obviously not Cameron who might be tempted to refuse the invitation. Out of Miliband, Farage, Clegg and Cameron, the happiest with the proposed new format is Cameron.

Ed won't want this and is hoping Cam will refuse first.

Like Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband needs the debates to have a chance of changing public perceptions of him. This format is far worse for him than the previous model but still better than not having debates at all.

David Cameron remains the person with most to lose from the debates, but he should accept these now. The dangers of the final head-to-head with Ed Miliband are compensated for by the very decent chance that Ed Miliband may find himself pulled in four different progressive directions in the first two debates.

Theuniondivvie said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

Quite.
Not sure if it will fill any authentic Unionists with joy though.

OldKingCole said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

How unpopular is Salmond in England? I would have thought he could be seen as a shrewd operator who might rein in some of Labour's wilder ideas.
And he has experience of being a very significant part of an effective government!

What we're not seeing here is balanced discussion of whether the SNP policies might actually appeal to the English as useful models for their own polity. Not that it is much use to the SNP, admittedly.

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

Quite.
Not sure if it will fill any authentic Unionists with joy though.

OldKingCole said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

How unpopular is Salmond in England? I would have thought he could be seen as a shrewd operator who might rein in some of Labour's wilder ideas.
And he has experience of being a very significant part of an effective government!

What we're not seeing here is balanced discussion of whether the SNP policies might actually appeal to the English as useful models for their own polity. Not that it is much use to the SNP, admittedly.

I imagine we'll be hearing the list of concessions the SNP want as a price of propping up a Labour government. Should be enough to make some people pretty irked at the SNP's amazing ability to extract powers from Westminster.

Pulpstar said:

taffys said:

Why has the Tory poster got Salmond instead of Sturgeon?

I wondered that. Nobody knows who the f8ck Sturgeon is?

Salmond will be leading the SNP in Westminster.

That's why.

No, it's because they've used an old (pre-diet) photo of Mr Salmond, I think!

A tweeter has also inquired why Mr M seems to have put on weight on the right of the picture (the one that actually doesn't look like Kenny Dodd).

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

Quite.
Not sure if it will fill any authentic Unionists with joy though.

OldKingCole said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

How unpopular is Salmond in England? I would have thought he could be seen as a shrewd operator who might rein in some of Labour's wilder ideas.
And he has experience of being a very significant part of an effective government!

What we're not seeing here is balanced discussion of whether the SNP policies might actually appeal to the English as useful models for their own polity. Not that it is much use to the SNP, admittedly.

I imagine we'll be hearing the list of concessions the SNP want as a price of propping up a Labour government. Should be enough to make some people pretty irked at the SNP's amazing ability to extract powers from Westminster.

How about Eck as the Sec of State for Energy?

Jonathan said:

Cameron is playing games. A tactician, not a leader or a statesman.

Playing the political game (and winning this round). What on earth else do you expect a politician to do? The debates are all about jostling for advantage.

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

Quite.
Not sure if it will fill any authentic Unionists with joy though.

Why not. I don't think many unionists support the SNP?

Er, d'ye think that poster will discourage Scots from voting SNP, or the reverse?

Authentic Unionists speak.

alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 1 hr1 hour ago
An immensely stupid Tory poster. Encouraging SNP votes is a short-term - but hugely expensive - political plan.

Chris Deerin ‏@chrisdeerin 37m37 minutes ago
@montie @NickCohen4 @alexmassie yep, and it all pushes us further apart. This is not a unionist strategy, it is an independence strategy

Chris Deerin @chrisdeerin · 51 mins 51 minutes ago
@alexmassie @montie everything's completely f*cked

I'm clearly a moron because I can't see how that is encouraging SNP votes, or are you saying that SLab voters may be swayed by the description of Ed as 'your worst nightmare'. And anyway, is it even being shown in Scotland?

Is it even being shown anywhere?

Posters are basically viral now. I assume it's not much more sophisticated than someone in head office loading up photoshop, pressing ctrl+P then renting a roving billboard for a couple of hours to find the nearest TV news crew.

Probably costs about £100 all in. The internet does the rest.

I know Farage may not be an MP but at least he is standing to be one... sturgeon isn't even doing that is she?

Sorry if I'm wrong but if she isn't running to be an mp then prob Salmond should be in debates not her

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

Hardly, Cameron is the only one threatening to flounce so far.

Cameron held his nerve and called the others' bluff (and in the process got them to write letters, in identical terms, agreeing that they'd accept whoever the broadcasters proposed, so they now have no wriggle room). In public he said he thought it only fair that the Greens should be invited. The Greens have been invited. To make it even better, Ed's now going to have Nicola's teeth round his ankles.

And this is somehow bad news for Cameron, and evidence that he screwed up?

What planet are people living on?

Cameron is playing games. A tactician, not a leader or a statesman.

So Cameron has negotiated well? And Miliband has somehow ended up with a far worse outcome? No further questions, Your Honour.

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

Quite.
Not sure if it will fill any authentic Unionists with joy though.

Why not. I don't think many unionists support the SNP?

Er, d'ye think that poster will discourage Scots from voting SNP, or the reverse?

Authentic Unionists speak.

alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 1 hr1 hour ago
An immensely stupid Tory poster. Encouraging SNP votes is a short-term - but hugely expensive - political plan.

Chris Deerin ‏@chrisdeerin 37m37 minutes ago
@montie @NickCohen4 @alexmassie yep, and it all pushes us further apart. This is not a unionist strategy, it is an independence strategy

Chris Deerin @chrisdeerin · 51 mins 51 minutes ago
@alexmassie @montie everything's completely f*cked

I'm clearly a moron because I can't see how that is encouraging SNP votes, or are you saying that SLab voters may be swayed by the description of Ed as 'your worst nightmare'. And anyway, is it even being shown in Scotland?

'This poster reminds us of this. Sure, it’s aimed at English voters but it will leach into Scotland too. And here it tells Scots to vote for the Nationalists. Let us count some of the ways in which it does so:
1. Vote SNP and they’ll be in government!
2. We, the Conservatives, are afraid of the SNP. (Subliminal message to Scots: so you know what to do, don’t you?)
3. And most importantly, it frames the election as a battle between Scotland and England in which the latter is menaced by the former. It pits the two largest parts of the Union against one another. Which, of course, is exactly how the SNP likes it; precisely how the SNP sees the election – and the future of Britain – too.'

http://tinyurl.com/nvtaftt


Apart from anything else, polling in Scotland shows a governing arrangement between Labour & the SNP is the preferred GE outcome. Man (or woman) on Possil omnibus sees poster, scratches head and wonders what's the best way to get that to happen.

antifrank said:

TOPPING said:

edmundintokyo said:

TOPPING said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I still dislike the broadcasters trying to be the tail that wags the dog. There are questions over Northern Irish parties as well, and Clegg must be livid with the situation.

Cameron isn't the only leader with a decision to make.

Agree. re the broadcasters.

That said, I genuinely can't think what the best situation would be. Cam, EdM, Nick, Farage is probably it, which the broadcasters came up with.

Although it benefits him and the Cons, in the light of the farce that "the debates" is becoming, I believe Cam/Lynton misplayed this.

Cameron's team are doing fine. They've got the debates including three Labour competitors, and the only downside is incredibly minor damage for looking like they want to duck them, which everyone will have forgotten about in a week.

As mentioned to @Morris_Dancer‌ I believe he has tactically played a blinder. For himself. And I suppose that was the aim.

But I think that he has caused mayhem and diminished the democratic process by politicking.

I would be interested to know the ideal line-up as determined by PB consensus, should such a think exist.

I think:
Cam, EdM, Nige, Nick.

I don't see any ideal line-up. The current proposal is as good a practical suggestion as we're likely to get. But it is very generous to the Greens in particular, and to a lesser extent Plaid Cymru.

Ynys Mons is my tip for Plaid - 2/1 at Ladbrokes and it was 12/5 yesterday with Hills.

They have a very good chance of taking the seat from Labour IMHO.

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

Quite.
Not sure if it will fill any authentic Unionists with joy though.

Why not. I don't think many unionists support the SNP?

Er, d'ye think that poster will discourage Scots from voting SNP, or the reverse?

Authentic Unionists speak.

alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 1 hr1 hour ago
An immensely stupid Tory poster. Encouraging SNP votes is a short-term - but hugely expensive - political plan.

Chris Deerin ‏@chrisdeerin 37m37 minutes ago
@montie @NickCohen4 @alexmassie yep, and it all pushes us further apart. This is not a unionist strategy, it is an independence strategy

Chris Deerin @chrisdeerin · 51 mins 51 minutes ago
@alexmassie @montie everything's completely f*cked

I'm clearly a moron because I can't see how that is encouraging SNP votes, or are you saying that SLab voters may be swayed by the description of Ed as 'your worst nightmare'. And anyway, is it even being shown in Scotland?

'This poster reminds us of this. Sure, it’s aimed at English voters but it will leach into Scotland too. And here it tells Scots to vote for the Nationalists. Let us count some of the ways in which it does so:
1. Vote SNP and they’ll be in government!
2. We, the Conservatives, are afraid of the SNP. (Subliminal message to Scots: so you know what to do, don’t you?)
3. And most importantly, it frames the election as a battle between Scotland and England in which the latter is menaced by the former. It pits the two largest parts of the Union against one another. Which, of course, is exactly how the SNP likes it; precisely how the SNP sees the election – and the future of Britain – too.'

http://tinyurl.com/nvtaftt


Apart from anything else, polling in Scotland shows a governing arrangement between Labour & the SNP is the preferred GE outcome. Man on Possil omnibus sees poster, scratches head and wonders what's the best way to get that to happen.

Fair points, but will the man on the Possil omnibus see the poster? He'd need bloody good eyesight!

isam said:

I know Farage may not be an MP but at least he is standing to be one... sturgeon isn't even doing that is she?

Sorry if I'm wrong but if she isn't running to be an mp then prob Salmond should be in debates not her

I'd have thought it was up to the Party. Nicola is leader, someone else is leader in Westminster, I understand Eck may be leading their GE campaign. Could be any, really. Sturgeon would be entirely eligible to be a cabinet minister in the event of the SNP being in government.

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

Quite.
Not sure if it will fill any authentic Unionists with joy though.

OldKingCole said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

How unpopular is Salmond in England? I would have thought he could be seen as a shrewd operator who might rein in some of Labour's wilder ideas.
And he has experience of being a very significant part of an effective government!

What we're not seeing here is balanced discussion of whether the SNP policies might actually appeal to the English as useful models for their own polity. Not that it is much use to the SNP, admittedly.

I imagine we'll be hearing the list of concessions the SNP want as a price of propping up a Labour government. Should be enough to make some people pretty irked at the SNP's amazing ability to extract powers from Westminster.

No, you misunderstand me: if the SNP can do X and Y, and they are popular, then this raises the question of why they are not done in England as well (and you can only argue Barnett consequentials favouring the Scots so far, especially as this was because of population density and rural areas in the first place). An example is the smoking ban in enclosed public places; another is the rationalisation of the stamp duty. Right now we've had a reduction of drink driving limits from 80 units to 50 - which has obviously been so low key in its reception that I've noticed PBers completely unaware it has happened (they'll need to be careful when driving over the border).

OldKingCole said:

RobD said:

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

Quite.
Not sure if it will fill any authentic Unionists with joy though.

OldKingCole said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

How unpopular is Salmond in England? I would have thought he could be seen as a shrewd operator who might rein in some of Labour's wilder ideas.
And he has experience of being a very significant part of an effective government!

What we're not seeing here is balanced discussion of whether the SNP policies might actually appeal to the English as useful models for their own polity. Not that it is much use to the SNP, admittedly.

I imagine we'll be hearing the list of concessions the SNP want as a price of propping up a Labour government. Should be enough to make some people pretty irked at the SNP's amazing ability to extract powers from Westminster.

How about Eck as the Sec of State for Energy?

Scotland Secretary, surely? He can have fun twiddling his thumbs given the number of powers his department will have lost in recent years!

audreyanne said:

Mike you've made a massive biased assumption here. Word on the vine is that Labour are not certain to agree to these terms.

Even though they already have!!

Interesting bet proposed on Twitter between Dan Hannan & Stephen Bush (of Telegraph; soon-to-be NS):

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP

@stephenkb I win if six seats or more, you if five or fewer.

On Tory seats in Scotland!

audreyanne said:

Mike you've made a massive biased assumption here. Word on the vine is that Labour are not certain to agree to these terms.

I don't think he's making bias assumptions. It's exactly how I would have worded the thread.

Tissue_Price said:

Interesting bet proposed on Twitter between Dan Hannan & Stephen Bush (of Telegraph; soon-to-be NS):

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP

@stephenkb I win if six seats or more, you if five or fewer.

On Tory seats in Scotland!

Blimey!

Carnyx said:

Alanbrooke said:

Carnyx said:

Theuniondivvie said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

Quite.
Not sure if it will fill any authentic Unionists with joy though.

OldKingCole said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

How unpopular is Salmond in England? I would have thought he could be seen as a shrewd operator who might rein in some of Labour's wilder ideas.
And he has experience of being a very significant part of an effective government!

What we're not seeing here is balanced discussion of whether the SNP policies might actually appeal to the English as useful models for their own polity. Not that it is much use to the SNP, admittedly.

LOL

the english could allow themselves to be annexed by Scotland, have their wealth confiscated by Edinburgh and their children made slaves on Burns Night and still wee wifey would come back and say it was a poor deal, she demands more and english craveness disrespects the people of Scotland.

See my reply to RobD.

That's what made me laugh.

Where can I find a gullible politician to make macho bets with?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Tissue_Price said:

saddened said:

Alistair said:

saddened said:

Jonathan said:

Good. Cameron needs to stop playing games and get on with it.

Has ed said he will turn up? I'm not sure he's agreed to the new format.

Yes, he's said he will debate with whoever the TV companies decide to invite.

Last I heard labour where preparing a response so you have a link to any official acceptance?

Per Guido:

Tory statement:

“These new proposals are being considered as part of the ongoing discussions about the debates.”

And Labour:

“We will debate anyone the broadcasters choose to invite and we are pleased to see the clear proposal to have three debates all in the general election campaign. The broadcasters have obviously made a very significant move to adopt wholesale the Prime Minister’s proposals and it surely now not possible for him to maintain his opposition to participating in these debates. We relish the opportunity for Ed Miliband to take on David Cameron directly in a head to head debate.”

"We will debate WITH anyone the broadcasters choose to invite"

Global standard English doesn't use the with.

Tissue_Price said:

Interesting bet proposed on Twitter between Dan Hannan & Stephen Bush (of Telegraph; soon-to-be NS):

Daniel Hannan ‏@DanHannanMEP

@stephenkb I win if six seats or more, you if five or fewer.

On Tory seats in Scotland!

That deserves a Scooby Doo type double take!

Casino_Royale said:

Pong said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:

TOPPING said:

edmundintokyo said:

TOPPING said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I still dislike the broadcasters trying to be the tail that wags the dog. There are questions over Northern Irish parties as well, and Clegg must be livid with the situation.

Cameron isn't the only leader with a decision to make.

Agree. re the broadcasters.

That said, I genuinely can't think what the best situation would be. Cam, EdM, Nick, Farage is probably it, which the broadcasters came up with.

Although it benefits him and the Cons, in the light of the farce that "the debates" is becoming, I believe Cam/Lynton misplayed this.

Cameron's team are doing fine. They've got the debates including three Labour competitors, and the only downside is incredibly minor damage for looking like they want to duck them, which everyone will have forgotten about in a week.

As mentioned to @Morris_Dancer‌ I believe he has tactically played a blinder. For himself. And I suppose that was the aim.

But I think that he has caused mayhem and diminished the democratic process by politicking.

I would be interested to know the ideal line-up as determined by PB consensus, should such a think exist.

I think:
Cam, EdM, Nige, Nick.

I don't see any ideal line-up. The current proposal is as good a practical suggestion as we're likely to get. But it is very generous to the Greens in particular, and to a lesser extent Plaid Cymru.

Ynys Mons is my tip for Plaid - 2/1 at Ladbrokes and it was 12/5 yesterday with Hills.

They have a very good chance of taking the seat from Labour IMHO.

Plaid are worth a look in ceredigion, also.

A chunk of the cleggtastic 2010 lib dem voters have now graduated from the university and been replaced by tuition-fee-paying undergrads.

It's a LD/Plaid seat with the others nowhere.

Worth a look, but given the solid Lib Dem majority to overhaul there I'm not tempted at 5/4.

13-8 at Hills, but that majority is enourmous indeed. I'll stick with the Yns Mons bet.

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

antifrank said:

Theuniondivvie said:

The Tories latest poster.

http://tinyurl.com/mumkkso

That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.

Quite.
Not sure if it will fill any authentic Unionists with joy though.

Why not. I don't think many unionists support the SNP?

Er, d'ye think that poster will discourage Scots from voting SNP, or the reverse?

Authentic Unionists speak.

alexmassie ‏@alexmassie 1 hr1 hour ago
An immensely stupid Tory poster. Encouraging SNP votes is a short-term - but hugely expensive - political plan.

Chris Deerin ‏@chrisdeerin 37m37 minutes ago
@montie @NickCohen4 @alexmassie yep, and it all pushes us further apart. This is not a unionist strategy, it is an independence strategy

Chris Deerin @chrisdeerin · 51 mins 51 minutes ago
@alexmassie @montie everything's completely f*cked

I'm clearly a moron because I can't see how that is encouraging SNP votes, or are you saying that SLab voters may be swayed by the description of Ed as 'your worst nightmare'. And anyway, is it even being shown in Scotland?

'This poster reminds us of this. Sure, it’s aimed at English voters but it will leach into Scotland too. And here it tells Scots to vote for the Nationalists. Let us count some of the ways in which it does so:
1. Vote SNP and they’ll be in government!
2. We, the Conservatives, are afraid of the SNP. (Subliminal message to Scots: so you know what to do, don’t you?)
3. And most importantly, it frames the election as a battle between Scotland and England in which the latter is menaced by the former. It pits the two largest parts of the Union against one another. Which, of course, is exactly how the SNP likes it; precisely how the SNP sees the election – and the future of Britain – too.'

http://tinyurl.com/nvtaftt


Apart from anything else, polling in Scotland shows a governing arrangement between Labour & the SNP is the preferred GE outcome. Man on Possil omnibus sees poster, scratches head and wonders what's the best way to get that to happen.

Fair points, but will the man on the Possil omnibus see the poster? He'd need bloody good eyesight!

The electronic media revolution has even reached Possil, though smartphones tend more towards the pizza and blow home-delivery end of the market.

I just don't believe you...

Pong said:

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:

TOPPING said:

edmundintokyo said:

TOPPING said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Hmm. I still dislike the broadcasters trying to be the tail that wags the dog. There are questions over Northern Irish parties as well, and Clegg must be livid with the situation.

Cameron isn't the only leader with a decision to make.

Agree. re the broadcasters.

That said, I genuinely can't think what the best situation would be. Cam, EdM, Nick, Farage is probably it, which the broadcasters came up with.

Although it benefits him and the Cons, in the light of the farce that "the debates" is becoming, I believe Cam/Lynton misplayed this.

Cameron's team are doing fine. They've got the debates including three Labour competitors, and the only downside is incredibly minor damage for looking like they want to duck them, which everyone will have forgotten about in a week.

As mentioned to @Morris_Dancer‌ I believe he has tactically played a blinder. For himself. And I suppose that was the aim.

But I think that he has caused mayhem and diminished the democratic process by politicking.

I would be interested to know the ideal line-up as determined by PB consensus, should such a think exist.

I think:
Cam, EdM, Nige, Nick.

I don't see any ideal line-up. The current proposal is as good a practical suggestion as we're likely to get. But it is very generous to the Greens in particular, and to a lesser extent Plaid Cymru.

Ynys Mons is my tip for Plaid - 2/1 at Ladbrokes and it was 12/5 yesterday with Hills.

They have a very good chance of taking the seat from Labour IMHO.

Plaid are worth a look in ceredigion, also.

A chunk of the cleggtastic 2010 lib dem voters have now graduated from the university and been replaced by tuition-fee-paying undergrads.

It's a LD/Plaid seat with the others nowhere.

Suggested those two yesterday. Very easy PC win in the Yns Mon Assembly by-election in 2013.

Pong said:

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/358861/Coalition-Specials.html

"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"

2016 or later @ 13/8

If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.

Neil said:

isam said:

Sorry if I'm wrong but if she isn't running to be an mp then prob Salmond should be in debates not her

Probably best left to the parties themselves to put forward their own spokesperson / leader.

Crikey how pompous would you like to be? 11 out of 10?

If she isn't standing to be an MP she should not be in the debates

isam said:

Neil said:

isam said:

Sorry if I'm wrong but if she isn't running to be an mp then prob Salmond should be in debates not her

Probably best left to the parties themselves to put forward their own spokesperson / leader.

Crikey how pompous would you like to be? 11 out of 10?

If she isn't standing to be an MP she should not be in the debates

Natalie Bennet?


Edit. Sorry; just checked, and she is standing.

edmundintokyo said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Tissue_Price said:

saddened said:

Alistair said:

saddened said:

Jonathan said:

Good. Cameron needs to stop playing games and get on with it.

Has ed said he will turn up? I'm not sure he's agreed to the new format.

Yes, he's said he will debate with whoever the TV companies decide to invite.

Last I heard labour where preparing a response so you have a link to any official acceptance?

Per Guido:

Tory statement:

“These new proposals are being considered as part of the ongoing discussions about the debates.”

And Labour:

“We will debate anyone the broadcasters choose to invite and we are pleased to see the clear proposal to have three debates all in the general election campaign. The broadcasters have obviously made a very significant move to adopt wholesale the Prime Minister’s proposals and it surely now not possible for him to maintain his opposition to participating in these debates. We relish the opportunity for Ed Miliband to take on David Cameron directly in a head to head debate.”

"We will debate WITH anyone the broadcasters choose to invite"

Global standard English doesn't use the with.

That's debate-able

Dave: "I'll debate Ed Miliband!"
Moderator: "With whom, Prime Minister?"

OldKingCole said:

isam said:

Neil said:

isam said:

Sorry if I'm wrong but if she isn't running to be an mp then prob Salmond should be in debates not her

Probably best left to the parties themselves to put forward their own spokesperson / leader.

Crikey how pompous would you like to be? 11 out of 10?

If she isn't standing to be an MP she should not be in the debates

Natalie Bennet?

She's standing in Holborn & St Pancras, isn't she? Not that she has a particularly good chance of winning, mind.

antifrank said:

Pong said:

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/358861/Coalition-Specials.html

"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"

2016 or later @ 13/8

If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.

What price anyone other than DC/EM leading the government formed after the G.E.? [I appreciate this is a slightly different q.]

MarkHopkins said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Mr. Jonathan, tactics win battles. Being good at tactics isn't a bad thing. Strategy, logistics and diplomacy also matter, of course, but it's no bad thing being skilled (or seeking to be skilled) at tactics.

Strategy = long-term plans.

Tactics = short-term goals.

You need both; neither one nor the other is "bad".

Sun Zi in the Art of War: 'Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory, tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat.'

This is certainly right. The Wehrmacht / Waffen SS were brilliant at tactics - their units regularly outfought the allies. But their strategy regularly sucked (expend all your energy taking a militarily useless Stalingrad, the Mortain counter-attack, etc).

Actually, the broadcasters have not threatened to empty-chair anyone. They have said that the debates will take place with those leaders who do accept the invitation, which is a very different thing. Admittedly this is probably academic, since I'm sure they will all accept.

I thought it was the Lib Dems who were saying no to the latest debate structure - how come it's Cameron being named on the thread?

Surprising....

audreyanne said:

Casino_Royale said:

audreyanne said:

Mike you've made a massive biased assumption here. Word on the vine is that Labour are not certain to agree to these terms.

I don't think he's making bias assumptions. It's exactly how I would have worded the thread.

Of course you would but on this occasion Smithson has lied and should alter it.

They have not threatened to empty chair Cameron , they have threatened to empty chair any leader who declines to participate. Look again at the wording.

The reason this is important is that there are some inside rumours that EdM may decline.

Cameron declined the last broadcaster debate proposal. The broadcasters are now making it clear here what will happen if he does so again on their revised proposal.

It's a pretty clear to me.

isam said:

Neil said:

isam said:

Sorry if I'm wrong but if she isn't running to be an mp then prob Salmond should be in debates not her

Probably best left to the parties themselves to put forward their own spokesperson / leader.

Crikey how pompous would you like to be? 11 out of 10?

If she isn't standing to be an MP she should not be in the debates

I'd like to be as pompous as you are touchy.

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

antifrank said:

Pong said:

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/358861/Coalition-Specials.html

"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"

2016 or later @ 13/8

If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.

What price anyone other than DC/EM leading the government formed after the G.E.? [I appreciate this is a slightly different q.]

Seeing as the only party that is actually winning at the moment is restricted to 61 seats, more or less zero.

If the SNP had "ENP" branches (Or some such) and Plaid were surging like they are or w/e, it'd be a live possibility.

Nothing stopping the SNP standing in the rest of the UK, it could make it a more interesting election if they did, then they'd be guaranteed a place in the TV debates.