I thought it was the Lib Dems who were saying no to the latest debate structure - how come it's Cameron being named on the thread?
Surprising....
Because Mike Smithson is a Liberal Democrat.
I believe it's possible that the Conservatives and Labour may jointly decline but will do so without appearing to have stitched it up. It's not in either party's interest to go ahead. Miliband is so awful he will lose votes to the Greens and no sitting PM should ever be stupid enough to debate with opposition parties.
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
I made a special lunchtime trip to William Hills when they had this at 7-2, should have put more than £35 on mind ^_~
I still don't know where you get all this money for betting from!
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
What price anyone other than DC/EM leading the government formed after the G.E.? [I appreciate this is a slightly different q.]
That's a tricky one. I see this as a possibility if the Conservatives get more seats but Labour + SNP + Lib Dems would form a viable working majority. In those circumstances, Ed Miliband's lack of personal popularity may be seen as an impediment to forming a stable government and his lack of support among colleagues may mean that any pressure from the Lib Dems for a better leader might meet with less resistance from Labour than one might expect.
This current Green party surge seems a bit like David Icke - sounds good until they have to say what they're really thinking.
I think this is as likely as the UKIP collapse we had last year after the other parties and the media scrutinised them more closely.
I expect the Greens to poll less in the GE than we are seeing currently but because of being squeezed and not standing everywhere rather than because lefty voters are put off by lefty policies.
My favourite tweets currently are from UKIPers who are shocked to find out that the Green party wants to abolish the monarchy and who think that support for the party will plummet when the general public discovers this. Some people out there are republicans, folks.
Hmm. I still dislike the broadcasters trying to be the tail that wags the dog. There are questions over Northern Irish parties as well, and Clegg must be livid with the situation.
Cameron isn't the only leader with a decision to make.
Agree. re the broadcasters.
That said, I genuinely can't think what the best situation would be. Cam, EdM, Nick, Farage is probably it, which the broadcasters came up with.
Although it benefits him and the Cons, in the light of the farce that "the debates" is becoming, I believe Cam/Lynton misplayed this.
Cameron's team are doing fine. They've got the debates including three Labour competitors, and the only downside is incredibly minor damage for looking like they want to duck them, which everyone will have forgotten about in a week.
As mentioned to @Morris_Dancer I believe he has tactically played a blinder. For himself. And I suppose that was the aim.
But I think that he has caused mayhem and diminished the democratic process by politicking.
I would be interested to know the ideal line-up as determined by PB consensus, should such a think exist.
I think: Cam, EdM, Nige, Nick.
I don't see any ideal line-up. The current proposal is as good a practical suggestion as we're likely to get. But it is very generous to the Greens in particular, and to a lesser extent Plaid Cymru.
Ynys Mons is my tip for Plaid - 2/1 at Ladbrokes and it was 12/5 yesterday with Hills.
They have a very good chance of taking the seat from Labour IMHO.
Plaid are worth a look in ceredigion, also.
A chunk of the cleggtastic 2010 lib dem voters have now graduated from the university and been replaced by tuition-fee-paying undergrads.
It's a LD/Plaid seat with the others nowhere.
Worth a look, but given the solid Lib Dem majority to overhaul there I'm not tempted at 5/4.
13-8 at Hills, but that majority is enourmous indeed. I'll stick with the Yns Mons bet.
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
What price anyone other than DC/EM leading the government formed after the G.E.? [I appreciate this is a slightly different q.]
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
I made a special lunchtime trip to William Hills when they had this at 7-2, should have put more than £35 on mind ^_~
I still don't know where you get all this money for betting from!
At odds like that, you'd be an idiot not to find the money from somewhere.
@Neil Will the Greens be putting up a candidate in North East Derbyshire this time ?
I dont think so currently but maybe they'll reassess it in light of the recent membership surge. The local party's crowdfunder is looking for money to stand in Amber Valley, Chesterfield, Derbyshire Dales, High Peak and Mid Derbyshire.
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
I made a special lunchtime trip to William Hills when they had this at 7-2, should have put more than £35 on mind ^_~
I still don't know where you get all this money for betting from!
Others have far more staked than me I think, and I'm on all sorts of outcomes - I'd have to be very unlucky to lose all my bets and can't possibly win them all.
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
What price anyone other than DC/EM leading the government formed after the G.E.? [I appreciate this is a slightly different q.]
Seeing as the only party that is actually winning at the moment is restricted to 61 seats, more or less zero.
If the SNP had "ENP" branches (Or some such) and Plaid were surging like they are or w/e, it'd be a live possibility.
There was a time, I think, when the SNP were actively considering going for seats in England (before the referendum became a possibility) to see how the natives liked their style of social democracy (this is separate from the recent proposal to stand in Berwick, which is a special case in more ways than one but has been dropped pro tem).
The actual policies are still a point that is insufficiently discussed - remember how well Mr Salmond was received by at least one English audience in recent years.
BTW, LPW has an interesting piece on the myth of EVEL under the current setup:
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
I made a special lunchtime trip to William Hills when they had this at 7-2, should have put more than £35 on mind ^_~
I still don't know where you get all this money for betting from!
Others have far more staked than me I think, and I'm on all sorts of outcomes - I'd have to be very unlucky to lose all my bets and can't possibly win them all.
I just get the impression you place a few every day. I've normally run out of money by this time in the month!
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
I made a special lunchtime trip to William Hills when they had this at 7-2, should have put more than £35 on mind ^_~
I still don't know where you get all this money for betting from!
At odds like that, you'd be an idiot not to find the money from somewhere.
I don't bet on credit, as a rule. It breaks my 'don't bet what you can afford to lose' rule. But I accept other punters may be more aggressive.
I normally have around £200-£300 a month to invest in beta.
audreyanne and Richard Nabavi should be kept away from sharp objects. The BBC don't seem to share their view that Cameron has played a blinder unless non stop ridicule of the sort Roy Hattersley's puppet had to endure all those years ago can be seen as 'playing a blinder'..
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
I made a special lunchtime trip to William Hills when they had this at 7-2, should have put more than £35 on mind ^_~
I still don't know where you get all this money for betting from!
At odds like that, you'd be an idiot not to find the money from somewhere.
I don't bet on credit, as a rule. It breaks my 'don't bet what you can afford to lose' rule. But I accept other punters may be more aggressive.
I normally have around £200-£300 a month to invest in beta.
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
What price anyone other than DC/EM leading the government formed after the G.E.? [I appreciate this is a slightly different q.]
That's a tricky one. I see this as a possibility if the Conservatives get more seats but Labour + SNP + Lib Dems would form a viable working majority. In those circumstances, Ed Miliband's lack of personal popularity may be seen as an impediment to forming a stable government and his lack of support among colleagues may mean that any pressure from the Lib Dems for a better leader might meet with less resistance from Labour than one might expect.
Yes, I think that's the only realistic scenario. But it's hard to see who would be PM. Jim Murphy? ;-)
I don't see any threat to 'empty chair' a non-attendee - they'd just go ahead with the number of 'chairs' as they have participants. I think literally having an 'empty chair' would be unnecessarily aggressive......but apart from that, and the gratuitous reference to Cameron, OGH headline is bang on.....
If you've got hundreds a month, just lower your stakes a little.
It tends to be 50% on the big overall majority market in Betfair (which I regard as about as risky as putting money into an ISA) and 5-6 constituency bets of £20-30 a piece.
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
What price anyone other than DC/EM leading the government formed after the G.E.? [I appreciate this is a slightly different q.]
That's a tricky one. I see this as a possibility if the Conservatives get more seats but Labour + SNP + Lib Dems would form a viable working majority. In those circumstances, Ed Miliband's lack of personal popularity may be seen as an impediment to forming a stable government and his lack of support among colleagues may mean that any pressure from the Lib Dems for a better leader might meet with less resistance from Labour than one might expect.
Yes, I think that's the only realistic scenario. But it's hard to see who would be PM. Jim Murphy? ;-)
The other realistic possibility also arises when the Conservatives have most seats, if the Conservative right decide that it's time to exact revenge on David Cameron for being so mean to them. I don't think there are enough crazy backwoodsmen, but the hard right of the Conservative party sets a high bar for craziness.
Rother Valley Labour 1-6 £300 (Overhedged UKIP 8-1, hopefully a loser) Hallam 4-9 £300 (Hedged, hopefully a winner) Burton £150 Conservatives (Hedged, Labour for £50 profit either way & UKIP ~@ 100-1) Berwick ~ £200 Cons Hedged LD/Con - more profit Con side East Dunbartonshire £200 @1-2 Labour OOPS ! (50-1, £10 SNP) vulnerable to Swinson hanging on. Solihull £100 Cons 1-3.
I have posted this before, but it was a few weeks ago.
Ladbrokes has a motorsport special (almost all F1) set of markets up. I have backed the following, and tip them now: Hamilton to beat the current record of 13 wins in a season at 9 [must admit to being irked Germany might drop off the calendar, but even with that it should be more like 4 or maybe 5].
I've put a smaller amount on Mercedes winning every Grand Prix at 17. Their only failures in 2014 were due to bad luck, two of which (I think) were reliability, and the third of which was Rosberg's safety car misfortune in Hungary. They had the pace to win every race last year. Whilst this is unlikely, 17 is too long.
I put on an even smaller sum on Alonso winning in Australia at 15. McLaren historically punch above their weight there (cf last year when, retrospectively, they got a double podium and very briefly led the Constructors'), and Alonso's a great driver. Plus, Mercedes *may* be unreliable again. However, on raw pace I do think McLaren will be behind, hence the tiny sum.
Edited extra bit: and, of course, I backed Hamilton and Rosberg for the title at 1.91 and 4.7 respectively on Betfair. They're down to 1.81 and 4.4, but that's still worth backing.
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
I made a special lunchtime trip to William Hills when they had this at 7-2, should have put more than £35 on mind ^_~
I still don't know where you get all this money for betting from!
At odds like that, you'd be an idiot not to find the money from somewhere.
I don't bet on credit, as a rule. It breaks my 'don't bet what you can afford to lose' rule. But I accept other punters may be more aggressive.
I normally have around £200-£300 a month to invest in beta.
It's a sensible approach - I don't mean to encourage reckless gambling.
Personally though, If someone was going to offer me 6/4 on a coin flip, i'd bet the house on it. In fact, my grandfather actually did win a house on a bet.
If any child of mine wanted to gamble they'd have my full blessing, but not until they'd passed their A-level stats
That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.
How unpopular is Salmond in England? I would have thought he could be seen as a shrewd operator who might rein in some of Labour's wilder ideas. And he has experience of being a very significant part of an effective government!
What we're not seeing here is balanced discussion of whether the SNP policies might actually appeal to the English as useful models for their own polity. Not that it is much use to the SNP, admittedly.
I imagine we'll be hearing the list of concessions the SNP want as a price of propping up a Labour government. Should be enough to make some people pretty irked at the SNP's amazing ability to extract powers from Westminster.
How about Eck as the Sec of State for Energy?
Scotland Secretary, surely? He can have fun twiddling his thumbs given the number of powers his department will have lost in recent years!
Official SNP position is that Secretary of State for Scotland should be abolished.
That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.
How unpopular is Salmond in England? I would have thought he could be seen as a shrewd operator who might rein in some of Labour's wilder ideas. And he has experience of being a very significant part of an effective government!
What we're not seeing here is balanced discussion of whether the SNP policies might actually appeal to the English as useful models for their own polity. Not that it is much use to the SNP, admittedly.
I imagine we'll be hearing the list of concessions the SNP want as a price of propping up a Labour government. Should be enough to make some people pretty irked at the SNP's amazing ability to extract powers from Westminster.
How about Eck as the Sec of State for Energy?
Scotland Secretary, surely? He can have fun twiddling his thumbs given the number of powers his department will have lost in recent years!
Official SNP position is that Secretary of State for Scotland should be abolished.
And he's standing in a constituency the SNP thinks should be abolished, a perfect match.
That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.
How unpopular is Salmond in England? I would have thought he could be seen as a shrewd operator who might rein in some of Labour's wilder ideas. And he has experience of being a very significant part of an effective government!
What we're not seeing here is balanced discussion of whether the SNP policies might actually appeal to the English as useful models for their own polity. Not that it is much use to the SNP, admittedly.
I imagine we'll be hearing the list of concessions the SNP want as a price of propping up a Labour government. Should be enough to make some people pretty irked at the SNP's amazing ability to extract powers from Westminster.
How about Eck as the Sec of State for Energy?
Scotland Secretary, surely? He can have fun twiddling his thumbs given the number of powers his department will have lost in recent years!
Official SNP position is that Secretary of State for Scotland should be abolished.
And he's standing in a constituency the SNP thinks should be abolished, a perfect match.
Interesting to see you argung that the SNP should declare UDI at once!
That is brutally effective from the Conservative viewpoint. I very much doubt that the SNP will be too upset by it either.
How unpopular is Salmond in England? I would have thought he could be seen as a shrewd operator who might rein in some of Labour's wilder ideas. And he has experience of being a very significant part of an effective government!
What we're not seeing here is balanced discussion of whether the SNP policies might actually appeal to the English as useful models for their own polity. Not that it is much use to the SNP, admittedly.
I imagine we'll be hearing the list of concessions the SNP want as a price of propping up a Labour government. Should be enough to make some people pretty irked at the SNP's amazing ability to extract powers from Westminster.
How about Eck as the Sec of State for Energy?
Scotland Secretary, surely? He can have fun twiddling his thumbs given the number of powers his department will have lost in recent years!
Official SNP position is that Secretary of State for Scotland should be abolished.
And he's standing in a constituency the SNP thinks should be abolished, a perfect match.
Interesting to see you argung that the SNP should declare UDI at once!
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
I made a special lunchtime trip to William Hills when they had this at 7-2, should have put more than £35 on mind ^_~
I still don't know where you get all this money for betting from!
At odds like that, you'd be an idiot not to find the money from somewhere.
I don't bet on credit, as a rule. It breaks my 'don't bet what you can afford to lose' rule. But I accept other punters may be more aggressive.
I normally have around £200-£300 a month to invest in beta.
It's a sensible approach - I don't mean to encourage reckless gambling.
Personally though, If someone was going to offer me 6/4 on a coin flip, i'd bet the house on it. In fact, my grandfather actually did win a house on a bet.
If any child of mine wanted to gamble they'd have my full blessing, but not until they'd passed their A-level stats
My big bet this time is on the SNP in Scotland. I have a range of bets, so provided the SNP do well, I should do well. If they don't, I will do badly - I've not hedged at all and I don't think I'm going to.
I've placed bets on 34 different Scottish constituencies (backing the SNP in 28 of those), but the seat I shall particularly look out for is Edinburgh North & Leith. I have £20 on the SNP at 50/1 there (as well as some more bets on the same constituency at shorter prices). Their current best price is 2/1, which still seems very decent given current SNP polling levels.
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
What price anyone other than DC/EM leading the government formed after the G.E.? [I appreciate this is a slightly different q.]
Seeing as the only party that is actually winning at the moment is restricted to 61 seats, more or less zero.
If the SNP had "ENP" branches (Or some such) and Plaid were surging like they are or w/e, it'd be a live possibility.
There was a time, I think, when the SNP were actively considering going for seats in England (before the referendum became a possibility) to see how the natives liked their style of social democracy (this is separate from the recent proposal to stand in Berwick, which is a special case in more ways than one but has been dropped pro tem).
The actual policies are still a point that is insufficiently discussed - remember how well Mr Salmond was received by at least one English audience in recent years.
BTW, LPW has an interesting piece on the myth of EVEL under the current setup:
For the SNP, their reticence to stand in English seats like Berwick or Corby is predicated by not wanting to be seen making Territorial Claims. Personally, I think they could do quite well in Cumberland and Northumbria, certainly at least well enough to retain deposits in a fair number of seats.
Personally, I think they could do quite well in Cumberland and Northumbria, certainly at least well enough to retain deposits in a fair number of seats.
They should stand in East Belfast as a protest against the way the seat was gerrymandered to hand it to the Alliance party.
Personally though, If someone was going to offer me 6/4 on a coin flip, i'd bet the house on it. In fact, my grandfather actually did win a house on a bet.
Sounds like a good story. Mind you, I wouldn't take 6/4 on a coin flip unless it was my coin.
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
I made a special lunchtime trip to William Hills when they had this at 7-2, should have put more than £35 on mind ^_~
I still don't know where you get all this money for betting from!
At odds like that, you'd be an idiot not to find the money from somewhere.
I don't bet on credit, as a rule. It breaks my 'don't bet what you can afford to lose' rule. But I accept other punters may be more aggressive.
I normally have around £200-£300 a month to invest in beta.
It's a sensible approach - I don't mean to encourage reckless gambling.
Personally though, If someone was going to offer me 6/4 on a coin flip, i'd bet the house on it. In fact, my grandfather actually did win a house on a bet.
If any child of mine wanted to gamble they'd have my full blessing, but not until they'd passed their A-level stats
Of of my ancestors lost his wife's family home in a game of piquet. Fortunately (!) he then went 'double or quits' with his home and won it back!
300 trained terrorists roam our streets after Syria got a bit hot -this doesn't seem to concern our security services, but apparently they can't protect us without snooping rights to everyone's emails.
In response to Nick Palmer on a previous thread, who asked this:-
"A work question which someone here may know - the director of a company breeding beagles in Brescia has just been given a 2.5 year prison sentence for cruelty and unlawful killing of dogs (it's relevant for Britain as she's also a director of a British-based company seeking to develop beagle production in Britain). Someone advises that in Italy, sentences under 4 years never lead to prison custody. Is that Right? What does it then mean?"
In Italy a criminal conviction is only finalised when all appeals are concluded. If the limitation period has expired before the final appeal has been definitively concluded then the conviction never becomes firm.
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
What price anyone other than DC/EM leading the government formed after the G.E.? [I appreciate this is a slightly different q.]
Seeing as the only party that is actually winning at the moment is restricted to 61 seats, more or less zero.
If the SNP had "ENP" branches (Or some such) and Plaid were surging like they are or w/e, it'd be a live possibility.
There was a time, I think, when the SNP were actively considering going for seats in England (before the referendum became a possibility) to see how the natives liked their style of social democracy (this is separate from the recent proposal to stand in Berwick, which is a special case in more ways than one but has been dropped pro tem).
The actual policies are still a point that is insufficiently discussed - remember how well Mr Salmond was received by at least one English audience in recent years.
BTW, LPW has an interesting piece on the myth of EVEL under the current setup:
For the SNP, their reticence to stand in English seats like Berwick or Corby is predicated by not wanting to be seen making Territorial Claims. Personally, I think they could do quite well in Cumberland and Northumbria, certainly at least well enough to retain deposits in a fair number of seats.
I wouldn't like to be the SNP candidate in Barrow though !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
300 trained terrorists roam our streets after Syria got a bit hot -this doesn't seem to concern our security services, but apparently they can't protect us without snooping rights to everyone's emails.
Unless going to Syria is a crime, it will probably be quite hard to gather enough evidence to secure a prosecution. I don't think they are purposely not prosecuting people.
"Coalition Specials - When Will David Cameron Leave The Post Of Prime Minister?"
2016 or later @ 13/8
If you combine that with the 11/10 on Ed Miliband being next Prime Minister, that's a near arb for a 16% rate of return in a year. Of course, you get skewered if there's a very messy hung Parliament and David Cameron gets replaced with an internal Conservative rival or there is an internal coup within the Labour party.
What price anyone other than DC/EM leading the government formed after the G.E.? [I appreciate this is a slightly different q.]
Seeing as the only party that is actually winning at the moment is restricted to 61 seats, more or less zero.
If the SNP had "ENP" branches (Or some such) and Plaid were surging like they are or w/e, it'd be a live possibility.
There was a time, I think, when the SNP were actively considering going for seats in England (before the referendum became a possibility) to see how the natives liked their style of social democracy (this is separate from the recent proposal to stand in Berwick, which is a special case in more ways than one but has been dropped pro tem).
The actual policies are still a point that is insufficiently discussed - remember how well Mr Salmond was received by at least one English audience in recent years.
BTW, LPW has an interesting piece on the myth of EVEL under the current setup:
For the SNP, their reticence to stand in English seats like Berwick or Corby is predicated by not wanting to be seen making Territorial Claims. Personally, I think they could do quite well in Cumberland and Northumbria, certainly at least well enough to retain deposits in a fair number of seats.
The SNP would do dreadfully in the border counties. Barring a Berwick reunification movement.
300 trained terrorists roam our streets after Syria got a bit hot -this doesn't seem to concern our security services, but apparently they can't protect us without snooping rights to everyone's emails.
300 trained terrorists roam our streets after Syria got a bit hot -this doesn't seem to concern our security services, but apparently they can't protect us without snooping rights to everyone's emails.
Unless going to Syria is a crime
Dont give them ideas!
It would give a whole new meaning to the idea of a Road To Damascus moment.
I will say this about Cammo, he has successfully made a nonsense of the proposed TV head to head debates: the broadcasters appear to be caving in.
Having 7 heads to shy at reminds me of 7 coconuts in a row at the old fair grounds we used to have when I was a tiddler. I will repeat what Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party said about the the flags at half mast for the Soudi king: "it is a steaming pile of nonsense". Mind, the steaming piles I'm thinking of are slightly more pungent.
Having Cammo and Little Ed square off against each other would nor be fair on Nigel of UKIP as he would't have a chance, before the voting public, of hammering them both to a pulp, debatewise of course.
300 trained terrorists roam our streets after Syria got a bit hot -this doesn't seem to concern our security services, but apparently they can't protect us without snooping rights to everyone's emails.
You want people 'banged up' without evidence of any crime?
He may struggle to land many blows but Farage at least has a decent chance of winning the seven leader debates. The votes will be splintered all over the place but Farage will be the only right wing participant and could get support from both Conservative and Labour voters. It'd be a useful headline for UKIP if it happens.
He may struggle to land many blows but Farage at least has a decent chance of winning the seven leader debates. The votes will be splintered all over the place but Farage will be the only right wing participant and could get support from both Conservative and Labour voters. It'd be a useful headline for UKIP if it happens.
It'll be a complete mess that very few will last through. The big event will be Dave v Ed.
He may struggle to land many blows but Farage at least has a decent chance of winning the seven leader debates. The votes will be splintered all over the place but Farage will be the only right wing participant and could get support from both Conservative and Labour voters. It'd be a useful headline for UKIP if it happens.
It'll be a complete mess that very few will last through. The big event will be Dave v Ed.
They should have them at 3am so only the very committed will get to watch them.
Dave v Ed. If that happens it is a huge win for Ed, surely. He can only outperform expectations.
Possibly, but many voters won't really have looked at him properly before, or heard him.
I'd say 80-90% of voters have made their minds up about DC, but only about 40% about EM (unscientific and anecdotal before you ask). Therefore, there is an opportunity for Ed, but he has to perform better than he has to date if he is to take advantage of it.
Dave v Ed. If that happens it is a huge win for Ed, surely. He can only outperform expectations.
Like he did in his crucial Conference speech last October?
Not sure it's the same thing. But Ed did not underperform on that even. He just did what people expected. If you begin from the point that he is crap, as almost all viewers will, he'll either be crap or he'll be better than crap. He is not going to be worse. Dave will be expected to beat him hands down - especially if the Tories frame the GE as a choice between the two.
Dave v Ed. If that happens it is a huge win for Ed, surely. He can only outperform expectations.
Dave V Ed was in the original plans anyway. Compared to those Dave seems to have come up trumps (while Ed, Nick and Nigel seem to have lost out).
Nick and Nigel, for sure. Ed seems to have done OK. A one-off debate is probably better for him than two or three. Anyone can win one game (or draw it). Over a longer period, crap will out.
If you begin from the point that he is crap, as almost all viewers will, he'll either be crap or he'll be better than crap. He is not going to be worse.
Why are you discounting the possibility that he could be worse than crap?
If you begin from the point that he is crap, as almost all viewers will, he'll either be crap or he'll be better than crap. He is not going to be worse.
Why are you discounting the possibility that he could be worse than crap?
I suppose from my perspective it is hard to see how Ed can possibly be worse than I believe him to be. But I may be one of his sterner critics. It is true that others, who have more faith in him (who on earth can they be?) may end up disappointed. But if they are partisan enough to have faith in him in the first place are they likely to switch votes if he disappoints them?
But if they are partisan enough to have faith in him in the first place are they likely to switch votes if he disappoints them?
I'm not sure that being able to envisage Ed being crapper than he now seems is a particularly partisan position. It seems quite a reasonable view to me.
If you begin from the point that he is crap, as almost all viewers will, he'll either be crap or he'll be better than crap. He is not going to be worse.
Why are you discounting the possibility that he could be worse than crap?
I suppose from my perspective it is hard to see how Ed can possibly be worse than I believe him to be. But I may be one of his sterner critics. It is true that others, who have more faith in him (who on earth can they be?) may end up disappointed. But if they are partisan enough to have faith in him in the first place are they likely to switch votes if he disappoints them?
I don't think we should underestimated Ed. He's a better debater than given credit for IMHO.
Our political system is a complete mess if the SNP get 49 seats on 4.39% of the vote, and UKIP get 0 (or 1) seat on 15.5%
No voting system is perfect, but FPTP is just ridiculous.
Rather different geographical spread, so the comparison is not fair.
Why should there be a seat bonus for being popular in Scotland?
Because (a) the SNP is standing in 8.4% of the population and (b) UKIP is standing in about 95% I guess - no idea how much really. The actual popularity figures in those areas are rather different, too ...
One could just as well argue that the Tories get a seat bonus for being popular in the shires. Actually that SNP figure is downgraded somewhat because Labour have a bonus for being popular in the Scottish industrial areas.
Our political system is a complete mess if the SNP get 49 seats on 4.39% of the vote, and UKIP get 0 (or 1) seat on 15.5%
No voting system is perfect, but FPTP is just ridiculous.
Perhaps UKIP should concentrate in one region the the UK too then?
They should start off in the Isle of Man. Once they've reintroduced the birch there they can move on to Anglesey and decriminalise sheep worrying.
Excellent plan, they'd only have to drag the country back to the 80s (rather than 50s) to reintroduce the death sentence and birching, and recriminalising sodomy.
But if they are partisan enough to have faith in him in the first place are they likely to switch votes if he disappoints them?
I'm not sure that being able to envisage Ed being crapper than he now seems is a particularly partisan position. It seems quite a reasonable view to me.
Fair enough. It's hard for me to envisage serious scenarios in which he could disappoint me, but I do think he is utterly and irredeemably abysmal.
Labour have had a shocker here - Greens in - showing its Cameron is who calls the shots, the Kipper effect will be lost in the 7 dwarves line up and the last debate aka the main event he won't have Clegg for help.
"That means that there is a good chance, at odds of only two-to-one against, that Alex Salmond will be a kingmaker or deputy prime minister of the next UK government."
Labour have had a shocker here - Greens in - showing its Cameron is who calls the shots, the Kipper effect will be lost in the 7 dwarves line up and the last debate aka the main event he won't have Clegg for help.
He should sack his debates team.
It is a mess but I still cannot see how this helps the Conservatives. They may have won in the sense they've got the debates format they wanted, but I'm honestly at a loss to understand why they think this is a good idea.
"That means that there is a good chance, at odds of only two-to-one against, that Alex Salmond will be a kingmaker or deputy prime minister of the next UK government."
"That means that there is a good chance, at odds of only two-to-one against, that Alex Salmond will be a kingmaker or deputy prime minister of the next UK government."
Wouldn't it be Sturgeon?
Dunno, depends on internal SNP party politics I guess - bit like Carswell and Farage in the HoC right now
But if they are partisan enough to have faith in him in the first place are they likely to switch votes if he disappoints them?
I'm not sure that being able to envisage Ed being crapper than he now seems is a particularly partisan position. It seems quite a reasonable view to me.
Fair enough. It's hard for me to envisage serious scenarios in which he could disappoint me, but I do think he is utterly and irredeemably abysmal.
I can see where tou're coming from, but equally, the Tories are desperate to make it a presidential election, and Labour are desperate to avoid that.
The idea that Ed could be crap in that setup and people will simply go, 'as expected' and it have no negative impact for Labour feels like it relies on a pretty unrealistic view of how priced in he really is across the whole electorate.
Labour have had a shocker here - Greens in - showing its Cameron is who calls the shots, the Kipper effect will be lost in the 7 dwarves line up and the last debate aka the main event he won't have Clegg for help.
He should sack his debates team.
It is a mess but I still cannot see how this helps the Conservatives. They may have won in the sense they've got the debates format they wanted, but I'm honestly at a loss to understand why they think this is a good idea.
I think it's a least worse sort of scenario. There is still the possibility that Cameron comes off worse from this format, but he has a much better chance than before of Miliband coming off worse or being hit harder than he is, which is as much of a win as he could hope for I think.
I don't think we should underestimated Ed. He's a better debater than given credit for IMHO.
He seems serviceable, certainly. He's been weaned on government and has loads of experience; while he may not have much natural charisma or showmanship (that shows itself in such an area at least), he's well trained enough to not be the disaster people accuse him of being. I recall thinking his delivery of his speech during the Jubilee in the Commons was better done than Cameron's, though on balance Cameron has the better potential as a performer. I think Miliband is bland and otherwise unexceptional, but to rely on him being a total failure at presenting himself or his party in an appealing fashion, even slightly (for such is what is necessary) strikes me as overly optimistic.
Comments
I believe it's possible that the Conservatives and Labour may jointly decline but will do so without appearing to have stitched it up. It's not in either party's interest to go ahead. Miliband is so awful he will lose votes to the Greens and no sitting PM should ever be stupid enough to debate with opposition parties.
I expect the Greens to poll less in the GE than we are seeing currently but because of being squeezed and not standing everywhere rather than because lefty voters are put off by lefty policies.
My favourite tweets currently are from UKIPers who are shocked to find out that the Green party wants to abolish the monarchy and who think that support for the party will plummet when the general public discovers this. Some people out there are republicans, folks.
The actual policies are still a point that is insufficiently discussed - remember how well Mr Salmond was received by at least one English audience in recent years.
BTW, LPW has an interesting piece on the myth of EVEL under the current setup:
http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/
Caroline Lucas said on This Week that she might do one and Bennett the other. That would really help her profile in Brighton Pavilion.
I normally have around £200-£300 a month to invest in beta.
If you've got hundreds a month, just lower your stakes a little.
Rother Valley Labour 1-6 £300 (Overhedged UKIP 8-1, hopefully a loser)
Hallam 4-9 £300 (Hedged, hopefully a winner)
Burton £150 Conservatives (Hedged, Labour for £50 profit either way & UKIP ~@ 100-1)
Berwick ~ £200 Cons Hedged LD/Con - more profit Con side
East Dunbartonshire £200 @1-2 Labour OOPS ! (50-1, £10 SNP) vulnerable to Swinson hanging on.
Solihull £100 Cons 1-3.
Betting PostI have posted this before, but it was a few weeks ago.
Ladbrokes has a motorsport special (almost all F1) set of markets up. I have backed the following, and tip them now:
Hamilton to beat the current record of 13 wins in a season at 9 [must admit to being irked Germany might drop off the calendar, but even with that it should be more like 4 or maybe 5].
I've put a smaller amount on Mercedes winning every Grand Prix at 17. Their only failures in 2014 were due to bad luck, two of which (I think) were reliability, and the third of which was Rosberg's safety car misfortune in Hungary. They had the pace to win every race last year. Whilst this is unlikely, 17 is too long.
I put on an even smaller sum on Alonso winning in Australia at 15. McLaren historically punch above their weight there (cf last year when, retrospectively, they got a double podium and very briefly led the Constructors'), and Alonso's a great driver. Plus, Mercedes *may* be unreliable again. However, on raw pace I do think McLaren will be behind, hence the tiny sum.
Edited extra bit: and, of course, I backed Hamilton and Rosberg for the title at 1.91 and 4.7 respectively on Betfair. They're down to 1.81 and 4.4, but that's still worth backing.
Personally though, If someone was going to offer me 6/4 on a coin flip, i'd bet the house on it. In fact, my grandfather actually did win a house on a bet.
If any child of mine wanted to gamble they'd have my full blessing, but not until they'd passed their A-level stats
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2923567/Bailiffs-trying-evict-cancer-stricken-father-mortgage-blunder-forced-retreat-500-strangers-form-human-blockade-bungalow.html
I've placed bets on 34 different Scottish constituencies (backing the SNP in 28 of those), but the seat I shall particularly look out for is Edinburgh North & Leith. I have £20 on the SNP at 50/1 there (as well as some more bets on the same constituency at shorter prices). Their current best price is 2/1, which still seems very decent given current SNP polling levels.
http://rt.com/uk/225615-uk-jihadi-prosecution-rates/
300 trained terrorists roam our streets after Syria got a bit hot -this doesn't seem to concern our security services, but apparently they can't protect us without snooping rights to everyone's emails.
"A work question which someone here may know - the director of a company breeding beagles in Brescia has just been given a 2.5 year prison sentence for cruelty and unlawful killing of dogs (it's relevant for Britain as she's also a director of a British-based company seeking to develop beagle production in Britain). Someone advises that in Italy, sentences under 4 years never lead to prison custody. Is that Right? What does it then mean?"
In Italy a criminal conviction is only finalised when all appeals are concluded. If the limitation period has expired before the final appeal has been definitively concluded then the conviction never becomes firm.
He had an interest only mortgage and didn't pay off the principle. Now he wants to keep the house and get the bank to cancel the debt.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2923599/Alan-Menken-turning-beloved-film-starring-Robin-Williams-stage-musical.html
Having 7 heads to shy at reminds me of 7 coconuts in a row at the old fair grounds we used to have when I was a tiddler. I will repeat what Ruth Davidson, leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party said about the the flags at half mast for the Soudi king: "it is a steaming pile of nonsense". Mind, the steaming piles I'm thinking of are slightly more pungent.
Having Cammo and Little Ed square off against each other would nor be fair on Nigel of UKIP as he would't have a chance, before the voting public, of hammering them both to a pulp, debatewise of course.
- Con + LD
- Lab + SNP + LD
.... then surely they go with Con. The SNP will be seen as hard work.
Unless Lab and LD decide not to agree anything with the SNP and just plough on regardless in the knowledge that the SNP won't actually vote them down.
Lab + LD is obviously another matter.
40 SNP gains.
I'd say 80-90% of voters have made their minds up about DC, but only about 40% about EM (unscientific and anecdotal before you ask). Therefore, there is an opportunity for Ed, but he has to perform better than he has to date if he is to take advantage of it.
No voting system is perfect, but FPTP is just ridiculous.
Edit - realised I just called Scotland a region. I'll prepare for my punishment.
One could just as well argue that the Tories get a seat bonus for being popular in the shires. Actually that SNP figure is downgraded somewhat because Labour have a bonus for being popular in the Scottish industrial areas.
Give over. He may as well sign off with EICIPM.
He should sack his debates team.
Wouldn't it be Sturgeon?
The idea that Ed could be crap in that setup and people will simply go, 'as expected' and it have no negative impact for Labour feels like it relies on a pretty unrealistic view of how priced in he really is across the whole electorate.
He seems serviceable, certainly. He's been weaned on government and has loads of experience; while he may not have much natural charisma or showmanship (that shows itself in such an area at least), he's well trained enough to not be the disaster people accuse him of being. I recall thinking his delivery of his speech during the Jubilee in the Commons was better done than Cameron's, though on balance Cameron has the better potential as a performer. I think Miliband is bland and otherwise unexceptional, but to rely on him being a total failure at presenting himself or his party in an appealing fashion, even slightly (for such is what is necessary) strikes me as overly optimistic.