WRT Reform, I commented a few days ago that almost everyone I befriended through the Conservative Party had joined them,
A big issue, over and above policy details, is that people like to be in at the start of something, rather than in at the end of it. If you join Reform, you're joining a party that's winning new seats, every week. If you've been an experienced activist, in another party, you'll be fast-tracked to fight council seats, Senedd seats, and on to the candidates' list.
As one put it to me, there's a buzz and excitement, that he hasn't known since he was a YC, in the late eighties. Not least, the fact that lots of young people are involved, which has not been true of the Conservatives for a long time.
If you join the Conservatives, you're joining an organisation that has a great future behind it.
It's like being a centre-left person, interested in a political career, in c.1925. Labour are the more attractive option than the Liberals.
See the civil rights precedents in using the National Guard to backup/protect Federal agents.
Precedents like Little Rock were permitted by laws.
What Trump is doing is not.
But its the law, not the constitution, that is in play AFAIK.
The law in question sets constraints on the executive.
Ignoring it is both to breach the specific law (the Posse Comitatus Act), and to breach the constitutional constraints on the executive, which require it to obey the law.
Its breaching the law, yes.
Unconstitutional tends to mean breaching constitutional limits, which do not apply here.
Otherwise every single breach of the law is unconstitutional and the word loses all meaning.
That's wrong.
For the President to breach a law which specifically sets limits on presidential power - and which has been in existence, unchallenged throughout presidencies of both parties for many years - is to breach the constitution, which clearly states (in Article II) "...he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed..".
Interesting one too. Stroud not a particularly strong Reform area so we will see if their surge has carried here. Labour defence as it was the second place Councillor from 2024 in the ward but Tories 'defending' highest vote share from 2024. Greens quite strong locally too. I'd guess Reform gain on high 20s percent from a very tight Tory/Labour second place race on low 20s. Result might be close to national polling
Some interesting ones tomorrow as well. In Leeds there is a MBI defence, in Mid Suffolk a Green defence, in North Northamptonshire a double Con defence, and in Nottinghamshire a double election for both a Con and a Lab defence.
Yep. No Reform in Suffolk but a whacking great Green majority - can the Tories regain ground with no Reform about? The Northants and Notts are delayed elections from May 1, Reform have put up 3 candidates in Northants for a 2 member ward - that could possibly cost them a seat
Interesting one too. Stroud not a particularly strong Reform area so we will see if their surge has carried here. Labour defence as it was the second place Councillor from 2024 in the ward but Tories 'defending' highest vote share from 2024. Greens quite strong locally too. I'd guess Reform gain on high 20s percent from a very tight Tory/Labour second place race on low 20s. Result might be close to national polling
Some interesting ones tomorrow as well. In Leeds there is a MBI defence, in Mid Suffolk a Green defence, in North Northamptonshire a double Con defence, and in Nottinghamshire a double election for both a Con and a Lab defence.
I would guess that Reform will gain four of those.
Interesting one too. Stroud not a particularly strong Reform area so we will see if their surge has carried here. Labour defence as it was the second place Councillor from 2024 in the ward but Tories 'defending' highest vote share from 2024. Greens quite strong locally too. I'd guess Reform gain on high 20s percent from a very tight Tory/Labour second place race on low 20s. Result might be close to national polling
Some interesting ones tomorrow as well. In Leeds there is a MBI defence, in Mid Suffolk a Green defence, in North Northamptonshire a double Con defence, and in Nottinghamshire a double election for both a Con and a Lab defence.
I would guess that Reform will gain four of those.
They aren't running in Suffolk and have put 3 candidates up for 2 seats in Northants so I'll go for 3 Reform gains - though the 3 for 2 cock up could cost them both seats in Northants as its an area the Tories were winning in May
Yes Reform would be a low tax and big spend party. Their supporters may back that but voters overall want a bit more prudence
No they won't they would (hoping they don't get the chance) be a high tax and high spend government, like every other wealthy European country. It is completely delusional to think otherwise.
Their spending policies will mirror the wishes of the people of Clacton. Take as guess as to their opinions: we want more NHS, more pensions, more disability payments, and a proper army.
What taxes would Reform put up?
Do you think they are going to tell you that!!?? However, even if they don't put up taxes, Reform in government will inherit a high tax, high spend economy. What I am saying is that Reform will not significantly cut TME (the public sector spending). They will not be trusted to borrow at a higher rate than now (or even that).
If sensible(!!) they would tax pensioners (me) more, reform council tax to raise it, put VAT at 5% on food and introduce a 'luxury' rate of VAT. And increase fuel and alcohol duty.
As Asquith wisely said, we shall have to wait and see.
Reform are going to have to commit seppuku with their core vote then. Another one-term government. Then what?
Of course, we have four years for this to sink in with the voters...
Indeed. But voter cakeism in various flavours is a given of reality. I doubt if the UK is alone in this. Reform will not be immune. Only a truce between major parties to all tell the truth about the nature of mathematics and reality would solve it, even if temporarily.
Farage is undoubtedly in the process of abandoning his libertarian/Singaporian/Trumpian wing who have lots of voice but no votes in a GE in favour of the Provisional Clacton Pensioner wing of the support base who number millions. That the UK is not Trump's USA is, I think, clear to Farage. (The difference is about sociology: UK as whole has no interest in a quasi religious political adherence, unlike USA. Let's be grateful for small mercies.)
So, to track Farage and Reform look for two trails: the trail of policy giving the voters of Clacton what they want (high spend on free stuff) and the trail, not yet started but it is on the way, of: 'Rome was not built in a day.'
A couple of comments from the article and the comments:
1) It is not at all clear to me that the economy is broken. As a GDP we remain 6th in the world. There are imbalances and problems but we remain as a country OK. GDP per capita is comparable with France and Germany. We are talking ourselves down. There are political and redistributist solutions to many of the messes.
The starting point for serious discussion should not be: 'We are a broken third world disaster zone'. We aren't.
2) I don't support Reform, on competence grounds and on then grounds of the company they keep. And some other reasons. But it is delusional to think that they plan to enter 2029 with a Trussplus manifesto. We have to wait and see but a certainty is that they will produce a centrist, socially conservative, gimmick filled, as costed as any other party, social democrat, high tax, high spend programme, reflecting very precisely the socially conservative welfarist opinions of the people of Clacton.
Those arguing that we're Argentina and need a Millei are just idiots wishing catastrophe on the country.
What need to be is Poland.
We need to think as if we are a growing, successful eastern European economy: That means when we spend we don’t try and pretend we’re the most powerful country in the world that can afford the best of everything. No, we buy the optimal £/outcome option & accept that it’s not cutting edge, nor will it be perfect in terms of environmental or other concerns: getting a good enough outcome quickly is more important than a more perfect outcome that arrives late& expensive.
That means spending much, much less on endless legal niceties (see HS2, the proposed Thames Crossing, Nuclear plants). It means spending much less on local customisation (see every MoD project ever, HS2, Nuclear plants, etc etc). It means buying cheap & working over buying expensive & might work sometime in the future.
We need a bunch of warships for the Navy? We buy them off-the-peg from South Korea or Japan. We need a new large nuclear plant? We buy a few of the ones South Korea is turning out at the rate of one every two or three years, with no customisations or changes. etc etc etc. We need a Thames Crossing? We do it, or we don’t, without faffing about for fifteen years racking up enormous legal bills. We need to electrify the rail network? We set an annual budget & just get on with it at a steady pace, instead of endless stop-start Treasury angst which just ends up delaying the project & tripling the cost. And so on & on & on.
The problem is that doing all of this cuts into the income & raison d’être of a whole swathe of special interests, both inside & outside government. All of whom have got very used to justifying their absolute necessity to every project this country ever undertakes.
There’s a weird double-think in this country that budgets are limited, but simultaneously we must only have the best. New projects end up enormously expensive, squeezing budgets for the maintenance of existing infrastructure & often ending up with the new project itself being cheese pared back in order to fit within what is financially viable.
DOGE without the drama. Will never happen, too many vested interests.
We are a nation of lawyers, sub-contractors, gold platers and people who schedule meetings for the sake of meetings.
No, it’s not DOGE. DOGE just went in & cut programs left right & centre without thought or logic. Programs were cut just because they could be cut, not because they should be cut.
Most of the things the British state want to do are perfectly reasonable - the problem is not the programs, it is that every single time we do anything it seems to cost two to three times as much as it should because of the way we approach doing, well, everything. We can’t go on simultaneously acting as if we can afford to simultaneously delay & gold-plate every project whilst cutting other services to the bone so that we can afford to pay the inflated costs we impose on ourselves.
Consider the British Museum lack of a catalogue.
When that came up, I printed out that I had taken part, as a volunteer, in the cataloging of the basement contents of smaller museum.
When I suggested that instead of spend (probably) hundreds of millions on a project to catalogue the British Museum, that letting lose some people doing Masters and PhDs in the various areas, there was considerable derision, here.
“But it’s not a Proper Project”
Instead of a single, giant, perfect solution at a single point in time. A slower accretion of records. A relative is doing something like this with another domain - turning unread historical documents into a database, using an iPhone, OCR and some time.
Meanwhile the British museum hasn’t started working on a full catalogue.
Institutions like the BM are regarded (by them) as jobs programs for your NU10k, so this outcome is entirely unsurprising.
The response *here* was interesting - sneering at volunteerism, not a Proper Project etc
That’s because they were holding that project in reserve for when the funding became available for the “right people” to be able to do it. Can’t have those pesky volunteers going around doing a good enough job in the meantime - that would eat into their pool of projects that are used as trading tokens when the opportunity to apply for external funding turns up. You want a pool of projects kept in reserve for when government funding for the Arts & Culture opens up or when a wealthy donor wanting to “do something useful” with their money calls up their friend the CEO.
Trussonomics is interesting in that it almost certainly was less harmful to the economy than both Brexit and lockdowns, yet the latter two were arguably a net benefit to the electoral fortunes of the Conservative Party. Trussonomics might well have caused the end of the Conservative Party as a serious electoral force.
WRT Reform, I commented a few days ago that almost everyone I befriended through the Conservative Party had joined them,
A big issue, over and above policy details, is that people like to be in at the start of something, rather than in at the end of it. If you join Reform, you're joining a party that's winning new seats, every week. If you've been an experienced activist, in another party, you'll be fast-tracked to fight council seats, Senedd seats, and on to the candidates' list.
As one put it to me, there's a buzz and excitement, that he hasn't known since he was a YC, in the late eighties. Not least, the fact that lots of young people are involved, which has not been true of the Conservatives for a long time.
If you join the Conservatives, you're joining an organisation that has a great future behind it.
It's like being a centre-left person, interested in a political career, in c.1925. Labour are the more attractive option than the Liberals.
The other big point, to such friends, is that on the issues they tend to care about, like immigration, defence, justice, political correctness/woke, the record of the Conservatives in office was worse than that of New Labour.
Yes Reform would be a low tax and big spend party. Their supporters may back that but voters overall want a bit more prudence
No they won't they would (hoping they don't get the chance) be a high tax and high spend government, like every other wealthy European country. It is completely delusional to think otherwise.
Their spending policies will mirror the wishes of the people of Clacton. Take as guess as to their opinions: we want more NHS, more pensions, more disability payments, and a proper army.
What taxes would Reform put up?
Do you think they are going to tell you that!!?? However, even if they don't put up taxes, Reform in government will inherit a high tax, high spend economy. What I am saying is that Reform will not significantly cut TME (the public sector spending). They will not be trusted to borrow at a higher rate than now (or even that).
If sensible(!!) they would tax pensioners (me) more, reform council tax to raise it, put VAT at 5% on food and introduce a 'luxury' rate of VAT. And increase fuel and alcohol duty.
As Asquith wisely said, we shall have to wait and see.
Reform are going to have to commit seppuku with their core vote then. Another one-term government. Then what?
Of course, we have four years for this to sink in with the voters...
Indeed. But voter cakeism in various flavours is a given of reality. I doubt if the UK is alone in this. Reform will not be immune. Only a truce between major parties to all tell the truth about the nature of mathematics and reality would solve it, even if temporarily.
Farage is undoubtedly in the process of abandoning his libertarian/Singaporian/Trumpian wing who have lots of voice but no votes in a GE in favour of the Provisional Clacton Pensioner wing of the support base who number millions. That the UK is not Trump's USA is, I think, clear to Farage. (The difference is about sociology: UK as whole has no interest in a quasi religious political adherence, unlike USA. Let's be grateful for small mercies.)
So, to track Farage and Reform look for two trails: the trail of policy giving the voters of Clacton what they want (high spend on free stuff) and the trail, not yet started but it is on the way, of: 'Rome was not built in a day.'
The big question is how much of the British Right will Nigel take with him. Small-state libertarianism has been their creed for decades. It'll be interesting to see how many will abandon all that for, essentially, Corbynism simply because an immigration purge is the greater priority and Nigel is now the only game in town.
Semi literate wannabe London mayor wants to form a ‘Military Guard Unit’ (Brits only) for foreign tourists to experience. I guess it might make US tourists feel more at home.
Trussonomics is interesting in that it almost certainly was less harmful to the economy than both Brexit and lockdowns, yet the latter two were arguably a net benefit to the electoral fortunes of the Conservative Party. Trussonomics might well have caused the end of the Conservative Party as a serious electoral force.
Trussonomics was less harmful because it was rapidly reversed. If it had been pushed through it would have been a lot worse - and the Tories wouldn't have won a dozen seats at the GE.
Yes Reform would be a low tax and big spend party. Their supporters may back that but voters overall want a bit more prudence
No they won't they would (hoping they don't get the chance) be a high tax and high spend government, like every other wealthy European country. It is completely delusional to think otherwise.
Their spending policies will mirror the wishes of the people of Clacton. Take as guess as to their opinions: we want more NHS, more pensions, more disability payments, and a proper army.
What taxes would Reform put up?
Do you think they are going to tell you that!!?? However, even if they don't put up taxes, Reform in government will inherit a high tax, high spend economy. What I am saying is that Reform will not significantly cut TME (the public sector spending). They will not be trusted to borrow at a higher rate than now (or even that).
If sensible(!!) they would tax pensioners (me) more, reform council tax to raise it, put VAT at 5% on food and introduce a 'luxury' rate of VAT. And increase fuel and alcohol duty.
As Asquith wisely said, we shall have to wait and see.
Reform are going to have to commit seppuku with their core vote then. Another one-term government. Then what?
Of course, we have four years for this to sink in with the voters...
Indeed. But voter cakeism in various flavours is a given of reality. I doubt if the UK is alone in this. Reform will not be immune. Only a truce between major parties to all tell the truth about the nature of mathematics and reality would solve it, even if temporarily.
Farage is undoubtedly in the process of abandoning his libertarian/Singaporian/Trumpian wing who have lots of voice but no votes in a GE in favour of the Provisional Clacton Pensioner wing of the support base who number millions. That the UK is not Trump's USA is, I think, clear to Farage. (The difference is about sociology: UK as whole has no interest in a quasi religious political adherence, unlike USA. Let's be grateful for small mercies.)
So, to track Farage and Reform look for two trails: the trail of policy giving the voters of Clacton what they want (high spend on free stuff) and the trail, not yet started but it is on the way, of: 'Rome was not built in a day.'
The big question is how much of the British Right will Nigel take with him. Small-state libertarianism has been their creed for decades. It'll be interesting to see how many will abandon all that for, essentially, Corbynism simply because an immigration purge is the greater priority and Nigel is now the only game in town.
The first lesson from Boris is that the voting public believe whatever they want to believe and it is easy enough for politicians to build a coalition of opposite interests and policies, as long as they have a good line in banter. The second lesson is that such a coalition fractures dramatically and quickly once in power.
Yes Reform would be a low tax and big spend party. Their supporters may back that but voters overall want a bit more prudence
No they won't they would (hoping they don't get the chance) be a high tax and high spend government, like every other wealthy European country. It is completely delusional to think otherwise.
Their spending policies will mirror the wishes of the people of Clacton. Take as guess as to their opinions: we want more NHS, more pensions, more disability payments, and a proper army.
What taxes would Reform put up?
Do you think they are going to tell you that!!?? However, even if they don't put up taxes, Reform in government will inherit a high tax, high spend economy. What I am saying is that Reform will not significantly cut TME (the public sector spending). They will not be trusted to borrow at a higher rate than now (or even that).
If sensible(!!) they would tax pensioners (me) more, reform council tax to raise it, put VAT at 5% on food and introduce a 'luxury' rate of VAT. And increase fuel and alcohol duty.
As Asquith wisely said, we shall have to wait and see.
Reform are going to have to commit seppuku with their core vote then. Another one-term government. Then what?
Of course, we have four years for this to sink in with the voters...
Indeed. But voter cakeism in various flavours is a given of reality. I doubt if the UK is alone in this. Reform will not be immune. Only a truce between major parties to all tell the truth about the nature of mathematics and reality would solve it, even if temporarily.
Farage is undoubtedly in the process of abandoning his libertarian/Singaporian/Trumpian wing who have lots of voice but no votes in a GE in favour of the Provisional Clacton Pensioner wing of the support base who number millions. That the UK is not Trump's USA is, I think, clear to Farage. (The difference is about sociology: UK as whole has no interest in a quasi religious political adherence, unlike USA. Let's be grateful for small mercies.)
So, to track Farage and Reform look for two trails: the trail of policy giving the voters of Clacton what they want (high spend on free stuff) and the trail, not yet started but it is on the way, of: 'Rome was not built in a day.'
The big question is how much of the British Right will Nigel take with him. Small-state libertarianism has been their creed for decades. It'll be interesting to see how many will abandon all that for, essentially, Corbynism simply because an immigration purge is the greater priority and Nigel is now the only game in town.
Once you have accepted that inward migration numbers and allied matters of integration are not 'Right', 'Hard Right', 'Extreme Right' matters, but matters for the centrist electorate as a whole, then the whole 'Left', 'Centre' and 'Right' things has to be looked at again.
The other thing to accept is that 'Small State', while interesting as a huristic principle, is impossible and isn't going to be attempted in any large wealthy European state in the forseeable future. No-one - not even Reform at its most drunk - can show how TME can be reduced even from 45% to 40% (about £100bn) let alone getting to a small state.
Farage won't go for Corbynism, He is going for Old Labour 1945-1970.
Yes Reform would be a low tax and big spend party. Their supporters may back that but voters overall want a bit more prudence
No they won't they would (hoping they don't get the chance) be a high tax and high spend government, like every other wealthy European country. It is completely delusional to think otherwise.
Their spending policies will mirror the wishes of the people of Clacton. Take as guess as to their opinions: we want more NHS, more pensions, more disability payments, and a proper army.
What taxes would Reform put up?
Do you think they are going to tell you that!!?? However, even if they don't put up taxes, Reform in government will inherit a high tax, high spend economy. What I am saying is that Reform will not significantly cut TME (the public sector spending). They will not be trusted to borrow at a higher rate than now (or even that).
If sensible(!!) they would tax pensioners (me) more, reform council tax to raise it, put VAT at 5% on food and introduce a 'luxury' rate of VAT. And increase fuel and alcohol duty.
As Asquith wisely said, we shall have to wait and see.
Reform are going to have to commit seppuku with their core vote then. Another one-term government. Then what?
Of course, we have four years for this to sink in with the voters...
Indeed. But voter cakeism in various flavours is a given of reality. I doubt if the UK is alone in this. Reform will not be immune. Only a truce between major parties to all tell the truth about the nature of mathematics and reality would solve it, even if temporarily.
Farage is undoubtedly in the process of abandoning his libertarian/Singaporian/Trumpian wing who have lots of voice but no votes in a GE in favour of the Provisional Clacton Pensioner wing of the support base who number millions. That the UK is not Trump's USA is, I think, clear to Farage. (The difference is about sociology: UK as whole has no interest in a quasi religious political adherence, unlike USA. Let's be grateful for small mercies.)
So, to track Farage and Reform look for two trails: the trail of policy giving the voters of Clacton what they want (high spend on free stuff) and the trail, not yet started but it is on the way, of: 'Rome was not built in a day.'
The big question is how much of the British Right will Nigel take with him. Small-state libertarianism has been their creed for decades. It'll be interesting to see how many will abandon all that for, essentially, Corbynism simply because an immigration purge is the greater priority and Nigel is now the only game in town.
The first lesson from Boris is that the voting public believe whatever they want to believe and it is easy enough for politicians to build a coalition of opposite interests and policies, as long as they have a good line in banter. The second lesson is that such a coalition fractures dramatically and quickly once in power.
Among the many things the voting public don't and won't believe is that we could have a small state. The things they want most - NHS, free education to 18, pensions, welfare safety net, defence, transport infrastructure - are the bits that spend all the money.
When thing that's moderately interesting to me, is why have Farage and Tice managed to stay on good terms ? Farage seems to fall out with nearly everyone else, but this relationship seems to keep everything else running.
She sounds like a goose being fed backwards into a waste disposal.
She'd have been a better chancellor before the Talkies. We could have enjoyed the government of Buster Keaton and Rachel Reeves. Shutting their yaks whilst standing on rakes
WRT Reform, I commented a few days ago that almost everyone I befriended through the Conservative Party had joined them,
A big issue, over and above policy details, is that people like to be in at the start of something, rather than in at the end of it. If you join Reform, you're joining a party that's winning new seats, every week. If you've been an experienced activist, in another party, you'll be fast-tracked to fight council seats, Senedd seats, and on to the candidates' list.
As one put it to me, there's a buzz and excitement, that he hasn't known since he was a YC, in the late eighties. Not least, the fact that lots of young people are involved, which has not been true of the Conservatives for a long time.
If you join the Conservatives, you're joining an organisation that has a great future behind it.
It's like being a centre-left person, interested in a political career, in c.1925. Labour are the more attractive option than the Liberals.
Of course not all Liberals went Labour, some of the more ambitious centrist, Unionist and fiscally conservative ones joined the Conservatives rather than go Labour 100 years ago.
Just as not all ambitious centre right young people would join Reform, some of the more liberal minded ones would join the LDs if they overtook the Tories on seats rather than Reform (of course the fact the LDs are still around as the Liberals successor party shows the Tories are likely to stay around in a smaller form provided they don't merge with Reform).
As for young people, Yougov have Reform 4th with 18-25s behind Labour the Greens and LDs and behind Labour with 25-49s. Reform only lead with over 50s, including over 65s where Reform also lead having overtaken the Tories with pensioners (perhaps an argument for Kemi to make a pitch to younger people as with her means tested winter fuel commitment, the only age group Kemi is polling better than Rishi with in some polls is under 30s)
Looks like we've agreed for Gibraltar to join Schengen and border to be under EU control. Wonder how much we are paying Mauritius for this?
Is there an actual real reason for this, other than the usual Starmer surrender-monkey poo? That man will swallow anything somebody puts in his mouth.
As with Chagos this is the continuation of a deal set up by the Tories, who will undoubtedly now throw their toys out of the pram about it. The demand for it has been led by the Gibraltar government and started in December 2020 as a result of Brexit.
Germany seems A Ok here at the moment. A nice glass of Helles overlooking Lake Constance.. one hasn't had to think about the UK , nor its dismal politics.( The UK is sinking fast).nor its dismal Football.failure v Senegal
When thing that's moderately interesting to me, is why have Farage and Tice managed to stay on good terms ? Farage seems to fall out with nearly everyone else, but this relationship seems to keep everything else running.
Tice is a massive pussy, basically. He's just a walking agreeable wallet for Farage
Looks like we've agreed for Gibraltar to join Schengen and border to be under EU control. Wonder how much we are paying Mauritius for this?
Is there an actual real reason for this, other than the usual Starmer surrender-monkey poo? That man will swallow anything somebody puts in his mouth.
As with Chagos this is the continuation of a deal set up by the Tories, who will undoubtedly now throw their toys out of the pram about it. The demand for it has been led by the Gibraltar government and started in December 2020 as a result of Brexit.
She sounds like a goose being fed backwards into a waste disposal.
I think she's managed to make her voice a little less annoying than it was. Ed Miliband on the other hand is getting worse.
It's odd to have Reeves, Milliband, and Starmer - all with annoying voices. Actually Cooper can be a bit annoying too - she can get quite shrill.
Phillipson is intensely irritating too. Then there's Kendall who's voice is OK but she looks absolutely fucking furious that the disabled aren't in cages being starved every time she talks welfare
Yes Reform would be a low tax and big spend party. Their supporters may back that but voters overall want a bit more prudence
No they won't they would (hoping they don't get the chance) be a high tax and high spend government, like every other wealthy European country. It is completely delusional to think otherwise.
Their spending policies will mirror the wishes of the people of Clacton. Take as guess as to their opinions: we want more NHS, more pensions, more disability payments, and a proper army.
What taxes would Reform put up?
Do you think they are going to tell you that!!?? However, even if they don't put up taxes, Reform in government will inherit a high tax, high spend economy. What I am saying is that Reform will not significantly cut TME (the public sector spending). They will not be trusted to borrow at a higher rate than now (or even that).
If sensible(!!) they would tax pensioners (me) more, reform council tax to raise it, put VAT at 5% on food and introduce a 'luxury' rate of VAT. And increase fuel and alcohol duty.
As Asquith wisely said, we shall have to wait and see.
Reform are going to have to commit seppuku with their core vote then. Another one-term government. Then what?
Of course, we have four years for this to sink in with the voters...
Indeed. But voter cakeism in various flavours is a given of reality. I doubt if the UK is alone in this. Reform will not be immune. Only a truce between major parties to all tell the truth about the nature of mathematics and reality would solve it, even if temporarily.
Farage is undoubtedly in the process of abandoning his libertarian/Singaporian/Trumpian wing who have lots of voice but no votes in a GE in favour of the Provisional Clacton Pensioner wing of the support base who number millions. That the UK is not Trump's USA is, I think, clear to Farage. (The difference is about sociology: UK as whole has no interest in a quasi religious political adherence, unlike USA. Let's be grateful for small mercies.)
So, to track Farage and Reform look for two trails: the trail of policy giving the voters of Clacton what they want (high spend on free stuff) and the trail, not yet started but it is on the way, of: 'Rome was not built in a day.'
I remain unconvinced by your thesis. Farage recently was complaining about late abortions, as if he was in the GOP. The big Reform UK push is currently around their “DOGE”, another US import and one more about libertarianism and grievance politics than about “high spend on free stuff”.
She sounds like a goose being fed backwards into a waste disposal.
I think she's managed to make her voice a little less annoying than it was. Ed Miliband on the other hand is getting worse.
It's odd to have Reeves, Milliband, and Starmer - all with annoying voices. Actually Cooper can be a bit annoying too - she can get quite shrill.
Phillipson is intensely irritating too. Then there's Kendall who's voice is OK but she looks absolutely fucking furious that the disabled aren't in cages being starved every time she talks welfare
Nah, I rather like Brigitte's dulcet Northeastern tones.
She sounds like a goose being fed backwards into a waste disposal.
I think she's managed to make her voice a little less annoying than it was. Ed Miliband on the other hand is getting worse.
It's odd to have Reeves, Milliband, and Starmer - all with annoying voices. Actually Cooper can be a bit annoying too - she can get quite shrill.
Phillipson is intensely irritating too. Then there's Kendall who's voice is OK but she looks absolutely fucking furious that the disabled aren't in cages being starved every time she talks welfare
Nah, I rather like Brigitte's dulcet Northeastern tones.
She needs to stop chewing wasps - always looks sneery, slightly pained or fake smiling
Review of Green Book: "No region will have Green Book guidance wielded against it" - that ... could be significant. Interesting and needs digging into.
Review of Green Book: "No region will have Green Book guidance wielded against it" - that ... could be significant. Interesting and needs digging into.
No detail, but that change is overdue by several decades.
Looks like we've agreed for Gibraltar to join Schengen and border to be under EU control. Wonder how much we are paying Mauritius for this?
Is there an actual real reason for this, other than the usual Starmer surrender-monkey poo? That man will swallow anything somebody puts in his mouth.
Border delays have been a huge problem for Gibraltar since Brexit, haven’t they?
Tbf they were sometimes a huge problem before. Any time the Spanish got pissed off they'd go-slow. Spaniards having to queue for hours to get to their jobs in Gibraltar, and back again.
Every time Banksy does some graffiti, it’s a major boost to the GDP.
1) I don't think Banksy is typical. 2) Banksy is a vandal with the wit and insight of a smug 14year old, and if he attempted his shit on my wall it would get swiftly painted over and if I caught him at it he'd get a good kicking.
Northern Powerhouse Rail ... plans to be announced in the next few weeks. Why not now Rachel?
I plan to announce a plan. Genius
To be fair, this is just me being impatient. Hopefully the plan is already there and she simply doesn't have the bandwidth for detail of that sort on one day. Hopefully.
OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!). WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
Looks like we've agreed for Gibraltar to join Schengen and border to be under EU control. Wonder how much we are paying Mauritius for this?
Is there an actual real reason for this, other than the usual Starmer surrender-monkey poo? That man will swallow anything somebody puts in his mouth.
Border delays have been a huge problem for Gibraltar since Brexit, haven’t they?
Gibraltar at the 2016 EURef:
REMAIN 96% Leave 4%
Before Brexit: passport required to pop into Spain Soon: no passport required to pop into Spain
Actually, this may not be true. Whilst there will be no border controls I think the Spanish constitution requires you carry either Spanish ID card, EU ID card, or Passport on your person at all times.
Northern Powerhouse Rail ... plans to be announced in the next few weeks. Why not now Rachel?
I plan to announce a plan. Genius
To be fair, this is just me being impatient. Hopefully the plan is already there and she simply doesn't have the bandwidth for detail of that sort on one day. Hopefully.
Suggests its not agreed, else you'd ram it out for headlines
Reeves is spending billions and billions creating a Labour utopia
The interesting bit is how this is received in the days ahead
It also seems that most of the spending is deferred and the real question is will the public feel any of it
She announced 450 million for transport in Wales then said it was over 10 years
That's typically how capital investment works. It's impossible to spend that much that quickly - and it's much more cost efficient to have a long term programme of investment than the stop-start nonsense that we usually get.
Germany has been electrifying rail at a near-constant 200km per year. We ping from 600km a year to none at all.
OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!). WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
Yes Reform would be a low tax and big spend party. Their supporters may back that but voters overall want a bit more prudence
No they won't they would (hoping they don't get the chance) be a high tax and high spend government, like every other wealthy European country. It is completely delusional to think otherwise.
Their spending policies will mirror the wishes of the people of Clacton. Take as guess as to their opinions: we want more NHS, more pensions, more disability payments, and a proper army.
What taxes would Reform put up?
Do you think they are going to tell you that!!?? However, even if they don't put up taxes, Reform in government will inherit a high tax, high spend economy. What I am saying is that Reform will not significantly cut TME (the public sector spending). They will not be trusted to borrow at a higher rate than now (or even that).
If sensible(!!) they would tax pensioners (me) more, reform council tax to raise it, put VAT at 5% on food and introduce a 'luxury' rate of VAT. And increase fuel and alcohol duty.
As Asquith wisely said, we shall have to wait and see.
Reform are going to have to commit seppuku with their core vote then. Another one-term government. Then what?
Of course, we have four years for this to sink in with the voters...
Indeed. But voter cakeism in various flavours is a given of reality. I doubt if the UK is alone in this. Reform will not be immune. Only a truce between major parties to all tell the truth about the nature of mathematics and reality would solve it, even if temporarily.
Farage is undoubtedly in the process of abandoning his libertarian/Singaporian/Trumpian wing who have lots of voice but no votes in a GE in favour of the Provisional Clacton Pensioner wing of the support base who number millions. That the UK is not Trump's USA is, I think, clear to Farage. (The difference is about sociology: UK as whole has no interest in a quasi religious political adherence, unlike USA. Let's be grateful for small mercies.)
So, to track Farage and Reform look for two trails: the trail of policy giving the voters of Clacton what they want (high spend on free stuff) and the trail, not yet started but it is on the way, of: 'Rome was not built in a day.'
The big question is how much of the British Right will Nigel take with him. Small-state libertarianism has been their creed for decades. It'll be interesting to see how many will abandon all that for, essentially, Corbynism simply because an immigration purge is the greater priority and Nigel is now the only game in town.
Once you have accepted that inward migration numbers and allied matters of integration are not 'Right', 'Hard Right', 'Extreme Right' matters, but matters for the centrist electorate as a whole, then the whole 'Left', 'Centre' and 'Right' things has to be looked at again.
The other thing to accept is that 'Small State', while interesting as a huristic principle, is impossible and isn't going to be attempted in any large wealthy European state in the forseeable future. No-one - not even Reform at its most drunk - can show how TME can be reduced even from 45% to 40% (about £100bn) let alone getting to a small state.
Farage won't go for Corbynism, He is going for Old Labour 1945-1970.
There is a "fix" that knocks £100bn off TME at a stroke. Default. If we're running a primary surplus, which we more or less are, we could jettison the debt and debt interest. Obviously we would be very unpopular with the people who hold the nearly £3tn of debt we currently owe, and there would be no prospect of any further government borrowing for some time. I think that last is more of a feature than a bug - we're only in the mess because it's too easy for governments to borrow.
I'm not sure I'm advocating the above (you'd want a rock solid plan to work out how to avoid collapsing the entire banking sector!) but as government debt interest goes up and up as a proportion of spending I can see the siren calls to do so growing louder and louder...
Northern Powerhouse Rail ... plans to be announced in the next few weeks. Why not now Rachel?
I plan to announce a plan. Genius
To be fair, this is just me being impatient. Hopefully the plan is already there and she simply doesn't have the bandwidth for detail of that sort on one day. Hopefully.
Suggests its not agreed, else you'd ram it out for headlines
Dunno. If I was a strategist, I'd do a lot of top level stuff today and drip any positive detail out over the next few weeks. But also if it isn't agreed, this is what it would look like too.
OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!). WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
Every time Banksy does some graffiti, it’s a major boost to the GDP.
1) I don't think Banksy is typical. 2) Banksy is a vandal with the wit and insight of a smug 14year old, and if he attempted his shit on my wall it would get swiftly painted over and if I caught him at it he'd get a good kicking.
Cookie, you have no appreciation for the finer arts!
WRT Reform, I commented a few days ago that almost everyone I befriended through the Conservative Party had joined them,
A big issue, over and above policy details, is that people like to be in at the start of something, rather than in at the end of it. If you join Reform, you're joining a party that's winning new seats, every week. If you've been an experienced activist, in another party, you'll be fast-tracked to fight council seats, Senedd seats, and on to the candidates' list.
As one put it to me, there's a buzz and excitement, that he hasn't known since he was a YC, in the late eighties. Not least, the fact that lots of young people are involved, which has not been true of the Conservatives for a long time.
If you join the Conservatives, you're joining an organisation that has a great future behind it.
It's like being a centre-left person, interested in a political career, in c.1925. Labour are the more attractive option than the Liberals.
What's your impression of the setup / culture in Reform?
My impression is that it has a Managers & Mushrooms feel to it - that is, control by an elite who want to direct the little people what to do. Information and instructions flow mainly downwards, and not upwards. There may even be a "London bubble".
It was notable for example that Tim Montgomerie has gone straight in at the management level dealing with people like Farage and Yusuf. Does a Councillor from Durham or Derby get the same access?
If I speculate I'd say that success or failure is going to depend on the autonomy that local Councils can assert.
So the Lincs Mayor Andrea Jenkins, or the seemingly competent leadership in Kent, have the weight to reject the centralising diktats.
But the Mayoral Mascot in Hull and East Yorkshire, or the teeny-bopping 22 year old Lead for Adult Social Care in Leicestershire who thinks that people should "snap out" of their mental health conditions could try gamely to follow Farage's primrose path, and being their councils crashing down when they.
Every time Banksy does some graffiti, it’s a major boost to the GDP.
1) I don't think Banksy is typical. 2) Banksy is a vandal with the wit and insight of a smug 14year old, and if he attempted his shit on my wall it would get swiftly painted over and if I caught him at it he'd get a good kicking.
Surely you'd take the money, flog it to someone and run?
Yes Reform would be a low tax and big spend party. Their supporters may back that but voters overall want a bit more prudence
No they won't they would (hoping they don't get the chance) be a high tax and high spend government, like every other wealthy European country. It is completely delusional to think otherwise.
Their spending policies will mirror the wishes of the people of Clacton. Take as guess as to their opinions: we want more NHS, more pensions, more disability payments, and a proper army.
What taxes would Reform put up?
Do you think they are going to tell you that!!?? However, even if they don't put up taxes, Reform in government will inherit a high tax, high spend economy. What I am saying is that Reform will not significantly cut TME (the public sector spending). They will not be trusted to borrow at a higher rate than now (or even that).
If sensible(!!) they would tax pensioners (me) more, reform council tax to raise it, put VAT at 5% on food and introduce a 'luxury' rate of VAT. And increase fuel and alcohol duty.
As Asquith wisely said, we shall have to wait and see.
Reform are going to have to commit seppuku with their core vote then. Another one-term government. Then what?
Of course, we have four years for this to sink in with the voters...
Indeed. But voter cakeism in various flavours is a given of reality. I doubt if the UK is alone in this. Reform will not be immune. Only a truce between major parties to all tell the truth about the nature of mathematics and reality would solve it, even if temporarily.
Farage is undoubtedly in the process of abandoning his libertarian/Singaporian/Trumpian wing who have lots of voice but no votes in a GE in favour of the Provisional Clacton Pensioner wing of the support base who number millions. That the UK is not Trump's USA is, I think, clear to Farage. (The difference is about sociology: UK as whole has no interest in a quasi religious political adherence, unlike USA. Let's be grateful for small mercies.)
So, to track Farage and Reform look for two trails: the trail of policy giving the voters of Clacton what they want (high spend on free stuff) and the trail, not yet started but it is on the way, of: 'Rome was not built in a day.'
I remain unconvinced by your thesis. Farage recently was complaining about late abortions, as if he was in the GOP. The big Reform UK push is currently around their “DOGE”, another US import and one more about libertarianism and grievance politics than about “high spend on free stuff”.
Fair point. However, we should look at substance not words when the future weighs this up. This is a betting site; it specialises in making statements about the future which cannot possibly be known. Once known they lose interest.
On your point; late abortions except for medical emergencies are unacceptable to a very large number of people of all sorts of backgrounds. The DOGE things is (IMHO) a mistake and will be superseded by reality in not very long as the complaints about bin emptying and gran's carer lady start pouring in, to say nothing of the SEND requirements of several million children suffering from naughty boy syndrome.
As to spending on free stuff am I aware of a single pledge so far which would remove a shilling from a single person in Clacton or elsewhere who might vote for Reform? Can't think of one.
I am, OTOH, aware of a pledge to raise the IT personal allowance to £20K.
OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!). WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
"Full magnets" !!!
This makes me think of Zi sending out a crate of fridge magnets, for some reason here.
Yes Reform would be a low tax and big spend party. Their supporters may back that but voters overall want a bit more prudence
No they won't they would (hoping they don't get the chance) be a high tax and high spend government, like every other wealthy European country. It is completely delusional to think otherwise.
Their spending policies will mirror the wishes of the people of Clacton. Take as guess as to their opinions: we want more NHS, more pensions, more disability payments, and a proper army.
What taxes would Reform put up?
Do you think they are going to tell you that!!?? However, even if they don't put up taxes, Reform in government will inherit a high tax, high spend economy. What I am saying is that Reform will not significantly cut TME (the public sector spending). They will not be trusted to borrow at a higher rate than now (or even that).
If sensible(!!) they would tax pensioners (me) more, reform council tax to raise it, put VAT at 5% on food and introduce a 'luxury' rate of VAT. And increase fuel and alcohol duty.
As Asquith wisely said, we shall have to wait and see.
Reform are going to have to commit seppuku with their core vote then. Another one-term government. Then what?
Of course, we have four years for this to sink in with the voters...
Indeed. But voter cakeism in various flavours is a given of reality. I doubt if the UK is alone in this. Reform will not be immune. Only a truce between major parties to all tell the truth about the nature of mathematics and reality would solve it, even if temporarily.
Farage is undoubtedly in the process of abandoning his libertarian/Singaporian/Trumpian wing who have lots of voice but no votes in a GE in favour of the Provisional Clacton Pensioner wing of the support base who number millions. That the UK is not Trump's USA is, I think, clear to Farage. (The difference is about sociology: UK as whole has no interest in a quasi religious political adherence, unlike USA. Let's be grateful for small mercies.)
So, to track Farage and Reform look for two trails: the trail of policy giving the voters of Clacton what they want (high spend on free stuff) and the trail, not yet started but it is on the way, of: 'Rome was not built in a day.'
I remain unconvinced by your thesis. Farage recently was complaining about late abortions, as if he was in the GOP. The big Reform UK push is currently around their “DOGE”, another US import and one more about libertarianism and grievance politics than about “high spend on free stuff”.
On abortion, have you ever considered that he might just actually believe it?
I'm fairly sure that at least some of Farage's principles are adjustable to fit the political weather* - but I don't think all of them are. Abortion does tend to be a issue on which people have fairly firm views, I wouldn't be supprised if he is just expressing his actual thoughts.
*he's hardly unique for this in the world of politics!
It's a political imperative, I think. Without noticeable improvements in the NHS a second term is unlikely.
Yes, they need full magnets there. They must have dozens of focus groups telling them that that is the most tangible improvement that they can make, that might be able to change people's minds quickly.
Interesting one too. Stroud not a particularly strong Reform area so we will see if their surge has carried here. Labour defence as it was the second place Councillor from 2024 in the ward but Tories 'defending' highest vote share from 2024. Greens quite strong locally too. I'd guess Reform gain on high 20s percent from a very tight Tory/Labour second place race on low 20s. Result might be close to national polling
Some interesting ones tomorrow as well. In Leeds there is a MBI defence, in Mid Suffolk a Green defence, in North Northamptonshire a double Con defence, and in Nottinghamshire a double election for both a Con and a Lab defence.
Do we have a date yet for the byelection after the Reform Councillor stood down in Newark; I have not noticed it?
Yes Reform would be a low tax and big spend party. Their supporters may back that but voters overall want a bit more prudence
No they won't they would (hoping they don't get the chance) be a high tax and high spend government, like every other wealthy European country. It is completely delusional to think otherwise.
Their spending policies will mirror the wishes of the people of Clacton. Take as guess as to their opinions: we want more NHS, more pensions, more disability payments, and a proper army.
What taxes would Reform put up?
Do you think they are going to tell you that!!?? However, even if they don't put up taxes, Reform in government will inherit a high tax, high spend economy. What I am saying is that Reform will not significantly cut TME (the public sector spending). They will not be trusted to borrow at a higher rate than now (or even that).
If sensible(!!) they would tax pensioners (me) more, reform council tax to raise it, put VAT at 5% on food and introduce a 'luxury' rate of VAT. And increase fuel and alcohol duty.
As Asquith wisely said, we shall have to wait and see.
Reform are going to have to commit seppuku with their core vote then. Another one-term government. Then what?
Of course, we have four years for this to sink in with the voters...
Indeed. But voter cakeism in various flavours is a given of reality. I doubt if the UK is alone in this. Reform will not be immune. Only a truce between major parties to all tell the truth about the nature of mathematics and reality would solve it, even if temporarily.
Farage is undoubtedly in the process of abandoning his libertarian/Singaporian/Trumpian wing who have lots of voice but no votes in a GE in favour of the Provisional Clacton Pensioner wing of the support base who number millions. That the UK is not Trump's USA is, I think, clear to Farage. (The difference is about sociology: UK as whole has no interest in a quasi religious political adherence, unlike USA. Let's be grateful for small mercies.)
So, to track Farage and Reform look for two trails: the trail of policy giving the voters of Clacton what they want (high spend on free stuff) and the trail, not yet started but it is on the way, of: 'Rome was not built in a day.'
I remain unconvinced by your thesis. Farage recently was complaining about late abortions, as if he was in the GOP. The big Reform UK push is currently around their “DOGE”, another US import and one more about libertarianism and grievance politics than about “high spend on free stuff”.
Fair point. However, we should look at substance not words when the future weighs this up. This is a betting site; it specialises in making statements about the future which cannot possibly be known. Once known they lose interest.
On your point; late abortions except for medical emergencies are unacceptable to a very large number of people of all sorts of backgrounds. The DOGE things is (IMHO) a mistake and will be superseded by reality in not very long as the complaints about bin emptying and gran's carer lady start pouring in, to say nothing of the SEND requirements of several million children suffering from naughty boy syndrome.
As to spending on free stuff am I aware of a single pledge so far which would remove a shilling from a single person in Clacton or elsewhere who might vote for Reform? Can't think of one.
I am, OTOH, aware of a pledge to raise the IT personal allowance to £20K.
I expect Reform will continue making uncosted pledges, sure, but we know their manifesto will be largely fictional. What will they actually do? My best guess is that they’ll govern like Trump: there will be promises of riches to various groups, but the reality will be cuts to services and tax cuts to millionaires.
Review of Green Book: "No region will have Green Book guidance wielded against it" - that ... could be significant. Interesting and needs digging into.
It's a political imperative, I think. Without noticeable improvements in the NHS a second term is unlikely.
The NHS is the real black hole in the budget, sucking in everything in its path and nothing ever escaping.
The only department not to have had any austerity, the only department to have had increases every single year, the entire country shutting down to 'protect' it, but still that's not 'enough', is it?
OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!). WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
Every time Banksy does some graffiti, it’s a major boost to the GDP.
1) I don't think Banksy is typical. 2) Banksy is a vandal with the wit and insight of a smug 14year old, and if he attempted his shit on my wall it would get swiftly painted over and if I caught him at it he'd get a good kicking.
Cookie, you have no appreciation for the finer arts!
And no appreciation for the bottom line.
I would very much welcome an original on my wall...
Review of Green Book: "No region will have Green Book guidance wielded against it" - that ... could be significant. Interesting and needs digging into.
It's a political imperative, I think. Without noticeable improvements in the NHS a second term is unlikely.
The NHS is the real black hole in the budget, sucking in everything in its path and nothing ever escaping.
The only department not to have had any austerity, the only department to have had increases every single year, the entire country shutting down to 'protect' it, but still that's not 'enough', is it?
Yes Reform would be a low tax and big spend party. Their supporters may back that but voters overall want a bit more prudence
No they won't they would (hoping they don't get the chance) be a high tax and high spend government, like every other wealthy European country. It is completely delusional to think otherwise.
Their spending policies will mirror the wishes of the people of Clacton. Take as guess as to their opinions: we want more NHS, more pensions, more disability payments, and a proper army.
What taxes would Reform put up?
Do you think they are going to tell you that!!?? However, even if they don't put up taxes, Reform in government will inherit a high tax, high spend economy. What I am saying is that Reform will not significantly cut TME (the public sector spending). They will not be trusted to borrow at a higher rate than now (or even that).
If sensible(!!) they would tax pensioners (me) more, reform council tax to raise it, put VAT at 5% on food and introduce a 'luxury' rate of VAT. And increase fuel and alcohol duty.
As Asquith wisely said, we shall have to wait and see.
Reform are going to have to commit seppuku with their core vote then. Another one-term government. Then what?
Of course, we have four years for this to sink in with the voters...
Indeed. But voter cakeism in various flavours is a given of reality. I doubt if the UK is alone in this. Reform will not be immune. Only a truce between major parties to all tell the truth about the nature of mathematics and reality would solve it, even if temporarily.
Farage is undoubtedly in the process of abandoning his libertarian/Singaporian/Trumpian wing who have lots of voice but no votes in a GE in favour of the Provisional Clacton Pensioner wing of the support base who number millions. That the UK is not Trump's USA is, I think, clear to Farage. (The difference is about sociology: UK as whole has no interest in a quasi religious political adherence, unlike USA. Let's be grateful for small mercies.)
So, to track Farage and Reform look for two trails: the trail of policy giving the voters of Clacton what they want (high spend on free stuff) and the trail, not yet started but it is on the way, of: 'Rome was not built in a day.'
I remain unconvinced by your thesis. Farage recently was complaining about late abortions, as if he was in the GOP. The big Reform UK push is currently around their “DOGE”, another US import and one more about libertarianism and grievance politics than about “high spend on free stuff”.
Fair point. However, we should look at substance not words when the future weighs this up. This is a betting site; it specialises in making statements about the future which cannot possibly be known. Once known they lose interest.
On your point; late abortions except for medical emergencies are unacceptable to a very large number of people of all sorts of backgrounds. The DOGE things is (IMHO) a mistake and will be superseded by reality in not very long as the complaints about bin emptying and gran's carer lady start pouring in, to say nothing of the SEND requirements of several million children suffering from naughty boy syndrome.
As to spending on free stuff am I aware of a single pledge so far which would remove a shilling from a single person in Clacton or elsewhere who might vote for Reform? Can't think of one.
I am, OTOH, aware of a pledge to raise the IT personal allowance to £20K.
I expect Reform will continue making uncosted pledges, sure, but we know their manifesto will be largely fictional. What will they actually do? My best guess is that they’ll govern like Trump: there will be promises of riches to various groups, but the reality will be cuts to services and tax cuts to millionaires.
What they would do depends on competence mostly, and also on how much they want to be re-elected. If there are actual cuts, these will be tinkering at the edges - a few billion here and there which makes no difference to the substance of a large state. Genuine 'small state' is out of the question.
They would not govern like Trump. And if they want to be re-elected they won't touch mainstream free stuff. High tax, high spend it will remain. That's 100% certain.
OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!). WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
It's a political imperative, I think. Without noticeable improvements in the NHS a second term is unlikely.
The NHS is the real black hole in the budget, sucking in everything in its path and nothing ever escaping.
The only department not to have had any austerity, the only department to have had increases every single year, the entire country shutting down to 'protect' it, but still that's not 'enough', is it?
When do we ever say enough is enough?
When the public stop having it as their number one priority, I guess.
Is NHS reform possible whilst it's getting bundles more cash. Will trusts be able to work out that employing @Gallowgate other half is cheaper and far more effective on an NHS salary compared to getting her off bank ?
Review of Green Book: "No region will have Green Book guidance wielded against it" - that ... could be significant. Interesting and needs digging into.
A general degree of common sense; nothing magical. Of course the devil will be in the implementation.
"..Place-based business cases will make sure that the government properly assesses the complementarities between different projects, such as housing and transport..."
"..HM Treasury will commission an independent review of the Green Book discount rate to make sure that the government is taking a fair view of the long- term benefits that arise from transformational investments.."
"It will make clear that the Green Book does not endorse the use of arbitrary ‘BCR thresholds’. It will outline that a BCR of less than one does not automatically constitute poor value for money. HM Treasury does not simply rank different projects, with different objectives, by their BCRs as a means of allocating funding.."
"HM Treasury will radically simplify and shorten the Green Book and the accompanying business case guides, publishing an updated Green Book at the start of 2026. HM Treasury will make clear the level of detail that is proportionate for business cases of different levels of cost and complexity.."
"HM Treasury and the Welsh Government will reform the Better Business Cases training programme. The NWF is expanding its role to provide early-stage development support to local and regional government.."
"The government will publish business cases for major projects and programmes. This will ensure transparency of decision making, including the geographical distribution of projects.."
A couple of comments from the article and the comments:
1) It is not at all clear to me that the economy is broken. As a GDP we remain 6th in the world. There are imbalances and problems but we remain as a country OK. GDP per capita is comparable with France and Germany. We are talking ourselves down. There are political and redistributist solutions to many of the messes.
The starting point for serious discussion should not be: 'We are a broken third world disaster zone'. We aren't.
2) I don't support Reform, on competence grounds and on then grounds of the company they keep. And some other reasons. But it is delusional to think that they plan to enter 2029 with a Trussplus manifesto. We have to wait and see but a certainty is that they will produce a centrist, socially conservative, gimmick filled, as costed as any other party, social democrat, high tax, high spend programme, reflecting very precisely the socially conservative welfarist opinions of the people of Clacton.
Those arguing that we're Argentina and need a Millei are just idiots wishing catastrophe on the country.
What need to be is Poland.
We need to think as if we are a growing, successful eastern European economy: That means when we spend we don’t try and pretend we’re the most powerful country in the world that can afford the best of everything. No, we buy the optimal £/outcome option & accept that it’s not cutting edge, nor will it be perfect in terms of environmental or other concerns: getting a good enough outcome quickly is more important than a more perfect outcome that arrives late& expensive.
That means spending much, much less on endless legal niceties (see HS2, the proposed Thames Crossing, Nuclear plants). It means spending much less on local customisation (see every MoD project ever, HS2, Nuclear plants, etc etc). It means buying cheap & working over buying expensive & might work sometime in the future.
We need a bunch of warships for the Navy? We buy them off-the-peg from South Korea or Japan. We need a new large nuclear plant? We buy a few of the ones South Korea is turning out at the rate of one every two or three years, with no customisations or changes. etc etc etc. We need a Thames Crossing? We do it, or we don’t, without faffing about for fifteen years racking up enormous legal bills. We need to electrify the rail network? We set an annual budget & just get on with it at a steady pace, instead of endless stop-start Treasury angst which just ends up delaying the project & tripling the cost. And so on & on & on.
The problem is that doing all of this cuts into the income & raison d’être of a whole swathe of special interests, both inside & outside government. All of whom have got very used to justifying their absolute necessity to every project this country ever undertakes.
There’s a weird double-think in this country that budgets are limited, but simultaneously we must only have the best. New projects end up enormously expensive, squeezing budgets for the maintenance of existing infrastructure & often ending up with the new project itself being cheese pared back in order to fit within what is financially viable.
DOGE without the drama. Will never happen, too many vested interests.
We are a nation of lawyers, sub-contractors, gold platers and people who schedule meetings for the sake of meetings.
But that is the essence of DOGE. And Reform's DOGE has not been especially dramatic, and has been looking for (and finding) these wastes of money.
Rachel will be in heaven. She's finished her speech, and the PB commentariat are signalling more indifference than "resign now" fury. Such commentary as there is is pretty evenly balanced.
Comments
A big issue, over and above policy details, is that people like to be in at the start of something, rather than in at the end of it. If you join Reform, you're joining a party that's winning new seats, every week. If you've been an experienced activist, in another party, you'll be fast-tracked to fight council seats, Senedd seats, and on to the candidates' list.
As one put it to me, there's a buzz and excitement, that he hasn't known since he was a YC, in the late eighties. Not least, the fact that lots of young people are involved, which has not been true of the Conservatives for a long time.
If you join the Conservatives, you're joining an organisation that has a great future behind it.
It's like being a centre-left person, interested in a political career, in c.1925. Labour are the more attractive option than the Liberals.
For the President to breach a law which specifically sets limits on presidential power - and which has been in existence, unchallenged throughout presidencies of both parties for many years - is to breach the constitution, which clearly states (in Article II) "...he shall take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed..".
The Northants and Notts are delayed elections from May 1, Reform have put up 3 candidates in Northants for a 2 member ward - that could possibly cost them a seat
Farage is undoubtedly in the process of abandoning his libertarian/Singaporian/Trumpian wing who have lots of voice but no votes in a GE in favour of the Provisional Clacton Pensioner wing of the support base who number millions. That the UK is not Trump's USA is, I think, clear to Farage. (The difference is about sociology: UK as whole has no interest in a quasi religious political adherence, unlike USA. Let's be grateful for small mercies.)
So, to track Farage and Reform look for two trails: the trail of policy giving the voters of Clacton what they want (high spend on free stuff) and the trail, not yet started but it is on the way, of: 'Rome was not built in a day.'
https://x.com/antmiddleton/status/1932412609287831779?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
There's approximately a £70bn black hole currently.
The other thing to accept is that 'Small State', while interesting as a huristic principle, is impossible and isn't going to be attempted in any large wealthy European state in the forseeable future. No-one - not even Reform at its most drunk - can show how TME can be reduced even from 45% to 40% (about £100bn) let alone getting to a small state.
Farage won't go for Corbynism, He is going for Old Labour 1945-1970.
Ironically, Gibraltarians voted Remain for fear of a harder border, got Brexit, and are seeing the border erased.
(Edit: for people, not goods. Gibraltar has always been outside the customs union, and is not joining.)
Sneaked out under cover of Reeves lying to the nation
Farage seems to fall out with nearly everyone else, but this relationship seems to keep everything else running.
One thing that can be cut right there.
We could have enjoyed the government of Buster Keaton and Rachel Reeves. Shutting their yaks whilst standing on rakes
Just as not all ambitious centre right young people would join Reform, some of the more liberal minded ones would join the LDs if they overtook the Tories on seats rather than Reform (of course the fact the LDs are still around as the Liberals successor party shows the Tories are likely to stay around in a smaller form provided they don't merge with Reform).
As for young people, Yougov have Reform 4th with 18-25s behind Labour the Greens and LDs and behind Labour with 25-49s. Reform only lead with over 50s, including over 65s where Reform also lead having overtaken the Tories with pensioners (perhaps an argument for Kemi to make a pitch to younger people as with her means tested winter fuel commitment, the only age group Kemi is polling better than Rishi with in some polls is under 30s)
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/voting-intention?crossBreak=65plus
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10152/
https://www.ggi.com/news/global-mobility/gibraltar-joins-schengen-area
https://www.gbc.gi/news/we-will-get-there-fabian-picardo-remains-optimistic-on-good-deal
It's odd to have Reeves, Milliband, and Starmer - all with annoying voices. Actually Cooper can be a bit annoying too - she can get quite shrill.
Some bus stops apparently.
If there's been anything interesting, its slipped me by.
REMAIN 96%
Leave 4%
Erasing the border is good for everyone.
2) Banksy is a vandal with the wit and insight of a smug 14year old, and if he attempted his shit on my wall it would get swiftly painted over and if I caught him at it he'd get a good kicking.
Reeves is spending billions and billions creating a Labour utopia
The interesting bit is how this is received in the days ahead
It also seems that most of the spending is deferred and the real question is will the public feel any of it
She announced 450 million for transport in Wales then said it was over 10 years
OUR DEAL WITH CHINA IS DONE, SUBJECT TO FINAL APPROVAL WITH PRESIDENT XI AND ME. FULL MAGNETS, AND ANY NECESSARY RARE EARTHS, WILL BE SUPPLIED, UP FRONT, BY CHINA. LIKEWISE, WE WILL PROVIDE TO CHINA WHAT WAS AGREED TO, INCLUDING CHINESE STUDENTS USING OUR COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN GOOD WITH ME!). WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
Soon: no passport required to pop into Spain
Germany has been electrifying rail at a near-constant 200km per year. We ping from 600km a year to none at all.
Default.
If we're running a primary surplus, which we more or less are, we could jettison the debt and debt interest.
Obviously we would be very unpopular with the people who hold the nearly £3tn of debt we currently owe, and there would be no prospect of any further government borrowing for some time. I think that last is more of a feature than a bug - we're only in the mess because it's too easy for governments to borrow.
I'm not sure I'm advocating the above (you'd want a rock solid plan to work out how to avoid collapsing the entire banking sector!) but as government debt interest goes up and up as a proportion of spending I can see the siren calls to do so growing louder and louder...
My impression is that it has a Managers & Mushrooms feel to it - that is, control by an elite who want to direct the little people what to do. Information and instructions flow mainly downwards, and not upwards. There may even be a "London bubble".
It was notable for example that Tim Montgomerie has gone straight in at the management level dealing with people like Farage and Yusuf. Does a Councillor from Durham or Derby get the same access?
If I speculate I'd say that success or failure is going to depend on the autonomy that local Councils can assert.
So the Lincs Mayor Andrea Jenkins, or the seemingly competent leadership in Kent, have the weight to reject the centralising diktats.
But the Mayoral Mascot in Hull and East Yorkshire, or the teeny-bopping 22 year old Lead for Adult Social Care in Leicestershire who thinks that people should "snap out" of their mental health conditions could try gamely to follow Farage's primrose path, and being their councils crashing down when they.
I could be wrong in my assessment.
On your point; late abortions except for medical emergencies are unacceptable to a very large number of people of all sorts of backgrounds. The DOGE things is (IMHO) a mistake and will be superseded by reality in not very long as the complaints about bin emptying and gran's carer lady start pouring in, to say nothing of the SEND requirements of several million children suffering from naughty boy syndrome.
As to spending on free stuff am I aware of a single pledge so far which would remove a shilling from a single person in Clacton or elsewhere who might vote for Reform? Can't think of one.
I am, OTOH, aware of a pledge to raise the IT personal allowance to £20K.
I'm fairly sure that at least some of Farage's principles are adjustable to fit the political weather* - but I don't think all of them are. Abortion does tend to be a issue on which people have fairly firm views, I wouldn't be supprised if he is just expressing his actual thoughts.
*he's hardly unique for this in the world of politics!
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/green-book-review-2025-findings-and-actions
At first glance, I approve overall.
About the Autumn Statement obviously. Nothing to do with anything else.
The only department not to have had any austerity, the only department to have had increases every single year, the entire country shutting down to 'protect' it, but still that's not 'enough', is it?
When do we ever say enough is enough?
Or repulsive.
I would very much welcome an original on my wall...
They would not govern like Trump. And if they want to be re-elected they won't touch mainstream free stuff. High tax, high spend it will remain. That's 100% certain.
Will trusts be able to work out that employing @Gallowgate other half is cheaper and far more effective on an NHS salary compared to getting her off bank ?
Of course the devil will be in the implementation.
"..Place-based business cases will make sure that the government properly assesses the complementarities between different projects, such as housing and transport..."
"..HM Treasury will commission an independent review of the Green Book discount rate to make sure that the government is taking a fair view of the long- term benefits that arise from transformational investments.."
"It will make clear that the Green Book does not endorse the use of arbitrary ‘BCR thresholds’. It will outline that a BCR of less than one does not automatically
constitute poor value for money. HM Treasury does not simply rank different projects, with different objectives, by their BCRs as a means of allocating funding.."
"HM Treasury will radically simplify and shorten the Green Book and the
accompanying business case guides, publishing an updated Green Book at the start of 2026. HM Treasury will make clear the level of detail that is proportionate for business cases of different levels of cost and complexity.."
"HM Treasury and the Welsh Government will reform the Better Business Cases training programme. The NWF is expanding its role to provide early-stage development support to local and regional government.."
"The government will publish business cases for major projects and programmes. This will ensure transparency of decision making, including the geographical distribution of projects.."
Such commentary as there is is pretty evenly balanced.