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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TV debates plan B+1. Is Number 10 going to agree this time
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TV debates plan B+1. Is Number 10 going to agree this time
Not long to go before the election campaign starts and this afternoon the broadcasters put forward a new proposal which, for the first time, bring in SNP/PC as well as the Greens.
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Completely off topic but interesting tweet nonetheless.
They'd never get that past the ECHR though, surely.
Are you kidding? It's brilliant TV. Much better than the Presidential debates.
Cameron will not want the final debate only one week before the GE.
Key question will be when is the head to head. If the head to head is last that's high risk for Cameron (and Miliband).
If Cameron wants to minimise debate risk he must ensure the head to head isn't last. It could go in the middle but if anything I think he'll favour it going first.
Broadcasters and other parties will argue head to head should go in middle. Minor parties will want their voice heard early - to get momentum - and at the end just before people vote.
I expect that the Conservatives will graciously accede to these formats. As Casino Royale said on the last thread, David Cameron's biggest danger in the debates now is overconfidence.
The upside for Cameron is that left-wing voters are going to hear a lot of things they like from people other than Miliband - so it increases the scope for the left-wing vote to fragment.
Plaid Cymru probably can't believe their luck.
I rapidly thinking there will be loads of losers on May the 7th and one winner - the SNP (bit ironic if they end up being the only ones happy at the outcome of the election in a country they want to abolish)
Come on. It's not that the LibDems have been downgraded. It's that others have been up-graded!
The upside is that the LDs should hold more seats the more fragmented the vote is, the wheels will finally fall off FPTP, and the newbies all get to say:-
"I agree with Nick" [on PR at least]
I think he'll go for it.
Of course this was pretty much what certain people, who shall remain nameless, were predicting right from when OGH was fulminating with outrage
edit: by the way, the speed of the Labour team's response shows their strategic ineptness. They rolled straight away - presumably trying to give some impression of being principled (on an issue no one cares about). Whereas they could have negotiated for a better position - e.g. excluding SNP/PC - as part of their acceptance.
The head to head though, well if Cameron wants to be PM again, if he can't beat up Ed, does he deserve to be PM?
People will say its high risk, look what happened last time...what happened last time was Brown was useless as predicted, despite the Labour spin that he would exceed very low expectations (I bet that is what the Ed spin for this time is). The problem Cameron had was Clegg did extremely well as he was able to get in between the two and sound reasonable. That isn't on the table this time.
If Cameron doesn't agree to these new proposals, he really is chicken.
While a risk, its also a massive opportunity.
Under this plan, they are being told the LDs are now only equal to all other parties. So it is a clear downgrade of status.
I take your point re vote fragmentation but isn't the issue that an awful lot of LD voters are likely to be tempted by the Greens?
Overall it has to be a much worse format for the LDs.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/01/if-youre-going-to-have-seven-parties-in-the-tv-debates-youve-got-to-include-the-dup/
Bald as a coot guy...
For avoidance of doubt -@DUPleader never in TV debates proposals. He's now demanding to know why as got more seats than Plaid, SNP & Greens
Con, Lab, LD, UKIP are all standing in Wales and Scotland.
The party that are lucky to be included are the Greens, who are not a major party in OFCOM's assessment in any area. But public opinion evidently feels differently, and David Cameron's backing of the Greens has made them the tariff for his admission.
And it must be way below 40%.
The Shinners would then find themselves, by extension, in coalition with the British Government!
The boyos who haven't gone away you know, would then have a very good reason to come back, you know...
“Leon Brittan was a dedicated and fiercely intelligent public servant. As a central figure in Margaret Thatcher’s government, he helped her transform our country for the better by giving distinguished service as Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Home Secretary and Secretary of State for Trade and Industry. He went on to play a leading role at the European Commission where he did so much to promote free trade in Europe and across the world. More recently, he made an active contribution to the House of Lords. My thoughts are with Leon’s family and friends at this sad time.”
Very, um, distant and factual. For some reason.
Given the various quirks and foibles of the British political system it was always going to get messy trying to use an essentially Presidential format within our different democratic system.
I do not actually see how anybody can 'lose' in a 7-sided debate, which must be something that suits Cameron since he has the most to lose.
It's pretty sad that we are talking so much about debates which are not actually going to be debates at all. Big mistake to start them in the first place.
Some Conservative candidates have already been selected in NI seats.
It should also be noted that the SDLP and Alliance are affiliated with Labour and the Lib Dems respectively.
Also, I don’t think Sinn Fein would have to be included because they refuse to take up their seats at Westminster.
But he's got what he wanted now. If he runs away again it'll look truly pathetic.
That one was a keeper.
Those pesky anti-semites again. They're everywhere, obviously...
Or not
Lib Dems reject the new proposals.....
James Chapman (Mail)@jameschappers·2 mins2 minutes ago
.@LibDems reject broadcasters' proposals: 'As a party of government, we must be able to defend our record in all the TV debates' #GE2015
BuzzFeed UK Politics @BuzzFeedUKPol 2m2 minutes ago
Lib Dems demand to take part in all four TV debates: “as a party of government, we must be able to defend our record in all the TV debates"
Each day snippets of the most interesting fights are shown on TV.
At the end of each week, the public vote which leader they want out.
Whoever is left after the 6 weeks gets to be PM.
Might work?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/london-mayor-election/11363421/Boris-Johnson-takes-the-fight-to-Islamic-State.html
What surprised me most was that so many people on this forum couldn't see that it was a win win for Cameron.
All things considered the debates look even less likely to happen than before.
Lib Dem in U-turn shocker!
"A proper debate requires back and forth. That's entirely why Cameron the Cowardly wanted to avoid one. His soundbites would get torn apart."
Extraordinary decision by Cameron. The advantage he has in a two or three way debate is his standing as PM. With seven this advantage is lost. He just becomes one of a crowd.
I'm surprised with his media background he wasn't savvy enough to see this worst of all outcomes happening.
The thing is - how can they object? They can't refuse to turn up to a debate they have not been invited to!
Shes got some front !
Like I said, Round 1 to Dave.
- Two seven person debates
- One Cameron v Miliband
Is there something we don't know?
I favour the 10-1 format, that would do nicely for Dave.
The rule should be simple. All the Major Parties in a Constituent Country or None in a UK wide debate. This proposal meets that simple rule. No Major Party will be disadvantaged in seeing its Major Party opponents given hours of primetime and TV news coverage that it is denied.
NI is sufficiently different that no Major Party there is in the debates, so no Major Party is being disadvantaged and the slight advantage minor parties get is effectively meaningless.
Key info from Anthony Wells re Scottish Panelbase poll which showed SNP -4, Lab +4:
"On top of that, when tables for the Panelbase poll appeared it turned out that the voting intention question wasn’t asked first, it was asked after a question about whether or not falling oil prices damaged the economic case for Scottish independence, so the SNP fall in that first poll may be a question ordering effect rather than a genuine change"
As for the structure of the debate - I'm sure there will be plenty of back and forth but I hope it will be done in a civilized way. For starters I think the lecterns should go. I'd rather see them all sat around a big table. More inclusive and less confrontational.
(Edited to change the word podiums to lecterns. I don't know why I wrote podiums.)
It would be a major coup for the PM to get the three leaders who Ed fears most into the first debate.
SHOORLY he must be in the debates too.