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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Has anyone heard of this voting system? It seems to be being promoted by UKIP Derby, funnily enough:

    http://www.mmp4uk.org/
    https://twitter.com/KirkKus
  • No Panel Member has made the point yet that the NHS is the most efficient healthcare service in the G11 countries. #bbcqt

    What is the French equivalent of Stafford?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580
    hunchman said:

    Just another £13bn borrowed by the Coalition in December, and it hardly merited a mention in the mainstream media today. Overall borrowing basically unchanged on where we were in the 9 months to December in the previous tax year. It really is quite surreal living in Britain these days and seeing what passes as mainstream comment, which more and more resembles a smokescreen for what is really going on behind the curtain.

    On the borrowing at least, I don't think most people care. They might say they do, but when it comes down to it they want to maintain or increase current standards, and at the same time feel like the economy is going ok enough to support that. Currently people are beginning to feel a little less pain, or no more than previously at least, so failing massively on borrowing targets and the like will not draw much comment until we hit the fan again.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Saudi Arabia has a new King.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Yes, Salman. No jokes about fishing in the Yemen, please....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    No Panel Member has made the point yet that the NHS is the most efficient healthcare service in the G11 countries. #bbcqt

    What is the French equivalent of Stafford?
    Le Hinchinbrooke
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580
    AndyJS said:

    Has anyone heard of this voting system? It seems to be being promoted by UKIP Derby, funnily enough:

    http://www.mmp4uk.org/
    https://twitter.com/KirkKus

    I think it's the same system I saw in this video once

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QT0I-sdoSXU
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015
    King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has died aged 90, a close ally of the USA and the Bush family. The new King is Salman, age 79.
  • This government presided over £3bn of cuts to social care Anyone think this might be bad for the NHS?

    How much does the NHS pay in pension payments?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    kle4 said:

    hunchman said:



    Watched 2 minutes of QT tonight and that was enough - what a desperately tired and pathetic old program it is!

    Do you have a preference for a format to replace or program that fills its niche more effectively? I only watch QT very rarely, but am not certain what sort of format would make me a more compulsive viewer of it, so any ideas would be good,
    Getting rid of the Dimbleweed for a start would help. If it were me, I'd get rid of any celebrities on there, restrict it to a maximum of 4 guests (a panel of 5 is too many). Plus now there is nobody to fill the huge void left by Paxman. Paxman effectively filled the gap left when Brian Walden finished as the toughest interviewer - we need somebody who is prepared to think outside the box and not ask the same stereotyped questions that pass for political debate these days. I don't claim to have all the answers, but those three things would be a start!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Another brother is taking over.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015
    Tim_B said:

    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Yes, Salman. No jokes about fishing in the Yemen, please....
    Yeap, and today South Yemen has just came back into existence, first time since the unification of Yemen at the end of the cold war.
    Jokingly, is the GDR next?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    This government presided over £3bn of cuts to social care Anyone think this might be bad for the NHS?

    How much does the NHS pay in pension payments?
    14.9%
  • No Panel Member has made the point yet that the NHS is the most efficient healthcare service in the G11 countries. #bbcqt

    What is the French equivalent of Stafford?
    Le Hinchinbrooke
    Have you read this report by a former Labour MP in the Guardian?
  • This government presided over £3bn of cuts to social care Anyone think this might be bad for the NHS?

    How much does the NHS pay in pension payments?
    14.9%
    Of their annual budget?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited January 2015

    No Panel Member has made the point yet that the NHS is the most efficient healthcare service in the G11 countries. #bbcqt

    What is the French equivalent of Stafford?
    The 10 thousand deaths in 2003? The French health system melted down in the heatwave while staff were off on holiday. Patients would have been glad of water in vases then...

    http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2003/08/heat-a22.html
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Ferguson - It looks increasingly likely that the Department of Justice will not bring civil rights charges against Officer Darren Wilson, following an FBI investigation.

    The investigation of the Ferguson Police Department is still ongoing. The Wilson investigation was really a trojan horse to get into the police department. The usual result in these cases, as the DOJ has limitless budget and lawyers, is that the PD in question will eventually be bullied into signing a consent decree.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    kle4 said:

    hunchman said:

    Just another £13bn borrowed by the Coalition in December, and it hardly merited a mention in the mainstream media today. Overall borrowing basically unchanged on where we were in the 9 months to December in the previous tax year. It really is quite surreal living in Britain these days and seeing what passes as mainstream comment, which more and more resembles a smokescreen for what is really going on behind the curtain.

    On the borrowing at least, I don't think most people care. They might say they do, but when it comes down to it they want to maintain or increase current standards, and at the same time feel like the economy is going ok enough to support that. Currently people are beginning to feel a little less pain, or no more than previously at least, so failing massively on borrowing targets and the like will not draw much comment until we hit the fan again.
    You're absolutely right there. They'll care when its far too late once the global bond market tops out around 2015.75 (1st October this year)....and particularly when trouble in the bond market leads to RISING interest rates on people's mortgages. Then the penny will finally drop in a very painful way, and the sheeple will get their comeuppance.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Another brother is taking over.
    How long will he last? At age 79 he is rumored already to be in poor health.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Speedy
    They have a stockpile of princes to keep them going.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Another brother is taking over.
    How long will he last? At age 79 he is rumored already to be in poor health.
    It all depends how 'efficient' Saudi health care is....
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Another brother is taking over.
    How long will he last? At age 79 he is rumored already to be in poor health.
    Do they have children, or does it go to the half brothers even if they do?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    This government presided over £3bn of cuts to social care Anyone think this might be bad for the NHS?

    How much does the NHS pay in pension payments?
    14.9%
    It's the same story across all the public sector pension space....and then people wonder why the cost of stamps, and taxes in general have been rising. Yes, the demographics are behind a lot of the trends. The collapse of the Roman Empire was brought about by an army mutiny from not receiving their pensions, and then ransacking the cities to make sure they got what they felt entitled to. Its that same sense of entitlement without questioning for one moment whether the resources are there or not that is lying behind the oncoming meltdown after 2015.75, irrespective of the outcome on the 7th May.

    Still its going to be a hoot to see the US stockmarket rising when the bond market begins to sell off, and look at the bewildered faces of most financial analysts - I can't wait for it all. Its just going to dumbfound so many people, just as the great rise of the US Dollar when nearly everyone to a man was bearish on it.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Has anyone heard of this voting system? It seems to be being promoted by UKIP Derby, funnily enough:

    http://www.mmp4uk.org/
    https://twitter.com/KirkKus

    It's basically AMS, as used in Scotland, Wales, Germany, New Zealand, etc...

    I just hate the two-votes thing.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    No Panel Member has made the point yet that the NHS is the most efficient healthcare service in the G11 countries. #bbcqt

    What is the French equivalent of Stafford?
    Stafford is actually more middle-class and Tory than average.

    Con share, 2010: 43.9%
    Con lead, 2010: 10.9%

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/e40.stm
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar - Kirkcaldy may not quite be the fortress you think it is.... Best get on the SNP there too.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Another brother is taking over.
    How long will he last? At age 79 he is rumored already to be in poor health.
    Do they have children, or does it go to the half brothers even if they do?
    They appoint their successor before hand, in theory it could be anyone in the royal family.
    Next in line is generally though to be Crown Prince Murqin, age 70.
    King Salman is though to be a good diplomat while Murqin is a military man with an affinity for interfering in Pakistani politics.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @bigjohnowls

    'No Panel Member has made the point yet that the NHS is the most efficient healthcare service in the G11 countries. #bbcqt'

    Because it's not or nobody would believe them ?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Tim_B
    "It all depends how 'efficient' Saudi health care is.... "

    I would imagine it is the same as in the USA, the more money you have, the better your chances?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited January 2015
    hunchman said:

    This government presided over £3bn of cuts to social care Anyone think this might be bad for the NHS?

    How much does the NHS pay in pension payments?
    14.9%
    It's the same story across all the public sector pension space....
    Come on, hunchman. Actuarial projections show the cost of the main unfunded public service pension schemes will halve in the long-term (as a %age of GDP). You cant have a problem with that, can you?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,580
    edited January 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Another brother is taking over.
    How long will he last? At age 79 he is rumored already to be in poor health.
    Do they have children, or does it go to the half brothers even if they do?
    I believe Abdullah set up an Allegiance Council or some other body composed of senior princes to settle the matter of succession. What rules it applies are complicated I imagine, but the deputy crown prince, now crown prince, was I think one of the youngest or the youngest of Ibn Saud's countless children, and so leaped past several others in the line of succession, so I think it is half brothers first, but apparently they can shift things around.

    I did some light googling on this matter some while ago, and it was unsurprising to learn the Al Saud's lost control of their domains twice in the 19th century as a result of squabbling over the succession.

    Family politics must be a nightmare.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Neil said:

    Pulpstar - Kirkcaldy may not quite be the fortress you think it is.... Best get on the SNP there too.

    No more Brown will hurt Labour a lot in Kirkcaldy
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Neil said:

    Pulpstar - Kirkcaldy may not quite be the fortress you think it is.... Best get on the SNP there too.

    I remember talking to an ardent SNP supporting lady in Cowdenbeath when up at the Formula 2 stock car racing world championship last September. Its a long shot yes, but the melting away of James Gordon Brown's personal vote should make it slightly less of a task than it would otherwise appear. Still I think SNP would require over 90% conversion of everyone who voted yes there to stand a chance of winning in May.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,348
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Has anyone heard of this voting system? It seems to be being promoted by UKIP Derby, funnily enough:

    http://www.mmp4uk.org/
    https://twitter.com/KirkKus

    I think it's the same system I saw in this video once

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QT0I-sdoSXU
    Are those not tuataras? Not lizards, as any fule kno.

  • Hunchman, in words of few syllables, could you explain your 2015.75 analysis, please?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Smarmeron said:

    @Dair
    Would there be room for two with her ego?

    What ego?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    hunchman said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar - Kirkcaldy may not quite be the fortress you think it is.... Best get on the SNP there too.

    I remember talking to an ardent SNP supporting lady in Cowdenbeath when up at the Formula 2 stock car racing world championship last September. Its a long shot yes, but the melting away of James Gordon Brown's personal vote should make it slightly less of a task than it would otherwise appear. Still I think SNP would require over 90% conversion of everyone who voted yes there to stand a chance of winning in May.
    I was mainly referring to their win in the by-election in Kirkcaldy East tonight.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Neil said:

    hunchman said:

    This government presided over £3bn of cuts to social care Anyone think this might be bad for the NHS?

    How much does the NHS pay in pension payments?
    14.9%
    It's the same story across all the public sector pension space....
    Come on, hunchman. Actuarial projections show the cost of the main unfunded public service pension schemes will halve in the long-term (as a %age of GDP). You cant have a problem with that, can you?
    That'll happen far too late after getting over the impasse that lies in wait from 2015.75 through to the start of 2020 when things should start to improve. Lets see where public pension payments stand at the start of the next decade relative to the promises made shall we? Don't get me started on the merits or otherwise of the GAD!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Oh my Lord, they've just stormed SLAB headquarters !
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Dair
    How many politicians do you know that don't have inflated egos?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SNP just won by-election in Gordon Browns heartland of Kirkcaldy East. Labour are more than fucked and 59 SNP MPs could be on the cards.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    William Hills, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath 9-2.
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Smarmeron said:

    @Tim_B
    "It all depends how 'efficient' Saudi health care is.... "

    I would imagine it is the same as in the USA, the more money you have, the better your chances?

    It's the same the world over, including the UK. It's one of the immutables of life.

    Heard a commentator reacting to the state of the union speech, plagiarizing Benjamin Franklin's famous quote - In the Obama administration nothing can be said to be certain, except debt and taxes. Worth a wry smile.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SNP at 55+ is looking very very profitable.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Slightly bizarre men only hustings in South Thanet boycotted by the Labour and Green candidate but not by Farage or, it seems, the Lib Dem or Tory.

    http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/South-Thanet-hustings-spark-Round-Table-rumpus/story-25907831-detail/story.html

    I wonder if it was a male-only hustings organised by a mosque would UKIP have more to say about it.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Tim_B said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Another brother is taking over.
    How long will he last? At age 79 he is rumored already to be in poor health.
    It all depends how 'efficient' Saudi health care is....
    Saudi Kings don't last long, only 2 have lasted more than 10 years.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Hunchman, in words of few syllables, could you explain your 2015.75 analysis, please?

    Hi Baskerville.

    The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a global model that times when capital concentrates in a particular sector, based on a cycle of 8.605 years or 3,141 days (1000 pi days). The next major turn down is 2015.75. Go back 8.6 years before that and you get to 23rd February 2007 - seemingly an innocent date but I know the JP Morgan proprietary desk used that to time their move out of subprime mortgages - that was the day when that asset class topped out. If you go back 8.6 years before that then you get the the start of the Asian financial crisis and Russian default in 1998. Go back another 8.6 years before that and you get to 1989.95 which at the end of 1989 was when the Nikkei topped out and Japan entered its 25 years and ongoing deflation. If you keep stepping back 8.6 years then you will find major turns in markets where the capital flow concentrated. Its a fascinating model to me, and I can't wait for it to be proven right again around the end of September this year. And, if as seems likely right now that it marks the top of the global bond market, then beware the period after when interest rates start RISING and all the ramifications that will bring in our utterly indebted global economy, the UK not least withstanding.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Neil
    Women: Know Your Limits! Harry Enfield - BBC comedy
    www.youtube.com/watch?v=LS37SNYjg8w
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    I see the Scottish Green party candidate got over three times as many votes as the Scottish Lib Dem candidate in Kirkcaldy tonight. One fewer straw for Mark Senior to grasp at.
  • Thanks. So where will you be stashing your cash? USD? Gold?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Neil said:

    hunchman said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar - Kirkcaldy may not quite be the fortress you think it is.... Best get on the SNP there too.

    I remember talking to an ardent SNP supporting lady in Cowdenbeath when up at the Formula 2 stock car racing world championship last September. Its a long shot yes, but the melting away of James Gordon Brown's personal vote should make it slightly less of a task than it would otherwise appear. Still I think SNP would require over 90% conversion of everyone who voted yes there to stand a chance of winning in May.
    I was mainly referring to their win in the by-election in Kirkcaldy East tonight.
    The birth place of the great Adam Smith no less. Wow, what a stunning result! Can't wait to see a Shadsy readjustment again of the odds on Scottish seats. So many now with Labour around 4/5 and SNP 6/4 - its been amazing to watch our friend come slowly and grudginly into line! Sorry Shadsy - can't be much fun having to price up these Scottish seats at the moment.

    Meanwhile, on the Isle of Wight the leader of the independents on the Council is now going to stand, further addding to the problems of Andrew Turner. UKIP to come through the middle of the chaos? 12/1 as the latest odds is mighty attractive to me!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    William Hills, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath 9-2.

    Its one of my 47 seats on the SNP list, based on the referendum result.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 2,520
    January 20
    Well there is a by election on Thursday in Kirkcaldy East , a SNP seat but in a ward where in 2012 Labour out polled the SNP by 1856 to 1352 votes .
    Seems the by election has been very hard fought by both Labour and SNP .
    Probably a Labour gain from SNP but the result will tell us more than previous by elections in rural Scotland .
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    On topic, the Japanese debates had like 16 guys, it worked fine.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited January 2015

    On topic, the Japanese debates had like 16 guys, it worked fine.

    Divide 90 minutes by 16 guys, if you think that 5 minutes and 37 seconds are enough per leader to make their point of view on a variety of issues, fair enough.

    Goodnight.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    hunchman said:


    The birth place of the great Adam Smith no less.

    I would suggest that in 2015 the birthplace of Adam Smith is far less important than it being the safest Labour seat in Scotland formerly held by Mr G Brown.

    SNP taking Kirkcaldy means Labour are not just dead in Scotland. They are 6 feet under with a headstone reading "here lies a party that lied. Here lied a party that lies. Their lies when they lied and when they lied with their lies, they found their fate in which they are lying".
  • On topic, the Japanese debates had like 16 guys, it worked fine.

    You might as well run that via each politicians having to make a Vine as the answer to each question...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Nigel Farage ‏@Nigel_Farage 7h7 hours ago
    My new @Independent piece: SNP spells trouble for Miliband, & Tories don't mean it when they pledge youth engagement: http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/sturgeons-uturn-on-voting-on-english-matters-spells-disaster-for-ed-miliband-9995976.html
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    January really looks like being a key month for public borrowing. Will balancing payments / payments on account from self-assessment forms boost receipts enough to reduce borrowing for the year overall. If borrowing grows year on year (or looks like it will) then Osborne wont be able to play the credibility card so much in the run up to the GE.
  • hunchman said:

    Hunchman, in words of few syllables, could you explain your 2015.75 analysis, please?

    Hi Baskerville.

    The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a global model that times when capital concentrates in a particular sector, based on a cycle of 8.605 years or 3,141 days (1000 pi days). The next major turn down is 2015.75. Go back 8.6 years before that and you get to 23rd February 2007 - seemingly an innocent date but I know the JP Morgan proprietary desk used that to time their move out of subprime mortgages - that was the day when that asset class topped out. If you go back 8.6 years before that then you get the the start of the Asian financial crisis and Russian default in 1998. Go back another 8.6 years before that and you get to 1989.95 which at the end of 1989 was when the Nikkei topped out and Japan entered its 25 years and ongoing deflation. If you keep stepping back 8.6 years then you will find major turns in markets where the capital flow concentrated. Its a fascinating model to me, and I can't wait for it to be proven right again around the end of September this year. And, if as seems likely right now that it marks the top of the global bond market, then beware the period after when interest rates start RISING and all the ramifications that will bring in our utterly indebted global economy, the UK not least withstanding.
    I find that sort of analysis fascinating, one question how long do these cycles run before becoming positive again?

    I got out of property late in 2005 because I could see what was coming, though I was out by about eighteen months and missed the peak in 2007. Me and a mate have worked out that after every property crash it takes about seven years before prices go crazy again, and it has been reasonably accurate this time too.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dair said:

    SNP just won by-election in Gordon Browns heartland of Kirkcaldy East. Labour are more than fucked and 59 SNP MPs could be on the cards.

    They won't win Orkney & Shetland
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Dair said:

    SNP taking Kirkcaldy means Labour are not just dead in Scotland.

    Turn out was about 27%, try not to go too crazy or you'll be talking about constituencies being gerrymandered for the Alliance party again.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    On topic, the Japanese debates had like 16 guys, it worked fine.

    Not a single woman amongst them?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Speedy said:

    On topic, the Japanese debates had like 16 guys, it worked fine.

    Divide 90 minutes by 16 guys, if you think that 5 minutes and 37 seconds are enough per leader to make their point of view on a variety of issues, fair enough.

    Goodnight.
    Yup, that's already about 5 minutes more than the voters can take in.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    SNP just won by-election in Gordon Browns heartland of Kirkcaldy East. Labour are more than fucked and 59 SNP MPs could be on the cards.

    They won't win Orkney & Shetland
    Polling says they really could win it. Yes got 36%, that's pretty close to the 42% that is guaranteed to win the seat.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Thanks. So where will you be stashing your cash? USD? Gold?

    Thanks. So where will you be stashing your cash? USD? Gold?

    US stockmarket (Dow Jones) needs to correct from its current level to around 16,300 as well as the US Dollar once its hit a high in the next few weeks or so. Then I'll be looking to get long on the US market - should get 23,000 and possibly higher if it can get through the resistance there - lets see. Don't like gold right now, but it should be good if it gets down to around $900-950 around late September this year. Then it should perform the role that it has done throughout history, not as a hedge against inflation or deflation but as a hedge against GOVERNMENT uncertainty. Think it can rally from there to around $5,000 but it will be a very non-linear advance - steady up to around $2,500 and then a blow off advance up to $5,000 but that's well off into 2017/8 when the government debt defaults around the world snowball. The capital is inexorably flowing out of Europe though right now, and I expect you'll be able to add Asia to that list as well as virtually everywhere else when the US Dollar rally really gets going, which is going to turn the US economy down in line with the 2015.75 turn date. Places will lots of US Dollar debt (SE Asia, Brazil) really starting to struggle big time as well as the commodity driven economies. Swiss (CHF) appreciation going to cause pain to lots of CHF mortgage holders, not least amongst Eastern Europe and particularly Poland.

    The question that is vexing me is where to go once Gold tops out and crashs and burns in a deflationary crash just like virtually everything else, cash excepted. I think there will be some major reform - new world reserve currency, but the US Dollar will probably hold reserve status still for much longer than most people think given its the only game in town that can hold that status right now. All in all, fascinating times.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Neil said:

    Dair said:

    SNP taking Kirkcaldy means Labour are not just dead in Scotland.

    Turn out was about 27%, try not to go too crazy or you'll be talking about constituencies being gerrymandered for the Alliance party again.
    Like people praising Leon Brittan that they will regret in a few Months. Wait Weeks. Actually probably days.
  • Neil said:

    Slightly bizarre men only hustings in South Thanet boycotted by the Labour and Green candidate but not by Farage or, it seems, the Lib Dem or Tory.

    http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/South-Thanet-hustings-spark-Round-Table-rumpus/story-25907831-detail/story.html

    I wonder if it was a male-only hustings organised by a mosque would UKIP have more to say about it.

    Cost £30 and had a dress code. Not really geared to appeal to all.
  • Mr Balls said: 'I do not think Ed or any of the rest of us can claim with any credibility that in 2003 we thought the war was wrong but we just forgot to tell anyone, because that would make us look ridiculous.'

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2921680/The-truth-Miliband-s-anti-war-boast-brother-Ed-Balls-said-ridiculous-claim-did-not-Iraq-invasion.html
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Neil said:

    On topic, the Japanese debates had like 16 guys, it worked fine.

    Not a single woman amongst them?
    I was using guys gender-neutrally but I don't recall any. Maybe the socialists had one.
  • Three of Fifa’s biggest sponsors on Thursday night revealed they had joined Sony and Emirates in abandoning football’s beleaguered world governing body.

    Castrol, Continental and Johnson & Johnson all confirmed to Telegraph Sport that they had severed their ties with the Sepp Blatter regime when their contracts expired last year – which proved to be among the most turbulent 12 months in its scandal-hit history.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/world-cup/11364195/Fifa-loses-three-key-sponsors-as-Castrol-Continental-and-Johnson-and-Johnson-sever-ties-with-world-governing-body.html

    If the likes of Coke, Pepsi, McDonalds etc join in we might get somewhere.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    Hunchman, in words of few syllables, could you explain your 2015.75 analysis, please?

    Hi Baskerville.

    The Economic Confidence Model (ECM) is a global model that times when capital concentrates in a particular sector, based on a cycle of 8.605 years or 3,141 days (1000 pi days). The next major turn down is 2015.75. Go back 8.6 years before that and you get to 23rd February 2007 - seemingly an innocent date but I know the JP Morgan proprietary desk used that to time their move out of subprime mortgages - that was the day when that asset class topped out. If you go back 8.6 years before that then you get the the start of the Asian financial crisis and Russian default in 1998. Go back another 8.6 years before that and you get to 1989.95 which at the end of 1989 was when the Nikkei topped out and Japan entered its 25 years and ongoing deflation. If you keep stepping back 8.6 years then you will find major turns in markets where the capital flow concentrated. Its a fascinating model to me, and I can't wait for it to be proven right again around the end of September this year. And, if as seems likely right now that it marks the top of the global bond market, then beware the period after when interest rates start RISING and all the ramifications that will bring in our utterly indebted global economy, the UK not least withstanding.
    I find that sort of analysis fascinating, one question how long do these cycles run before becoming positive again?

    I got out of property late in 2005 because I could see what was coming, though I was out by about eighteen months and missed the peak in 2007. Me and a mate have worked out that after every property crash it takes about seven years before prices go crazy again, and it has been reasonably accurate this time too.
    This cycle that tops in 2015.75 seems to be pointing down into around January 2020 before things start improving again - see www.armstrongeconomics.com for further information! Also some fascinating property related cycle analysis on there around a 77 year property cycle that had its peak in 2007, counter trend move up into this year, and then a long descent into the early 2030's. Property has the longest cycle of any asset class, just because the lags and price discovery mechanism is so relatively inefficient. Wouldn't surprise me to find the amount of reposessions when the banks panic in a rising interest rate cycle will dwarf what we saw in the early 1990's bust, and then all that property inventory on the market as a result will take years and years to clear if that forecast is to come good - we shall see.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983



    If the likes of Coke, Pepsi, McDonalds etc join in we might get somewhere.

    I'm surprised there isnt more of a consumer campaign to get them to do exactly that. I mean they surely cant want the association with the death, ill-treatment or near-imprisonment of tens of thousands of workers in Qatar.
  • Again, thanks. To me, investing is all about timing - nigel4 was at least on the right side of the property collapse!
    On a technical question... I understand the 1000 pi sequence, but when did it start?
    Afraid I have to go to bed, but I'll catch up tomorrow.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Neil said:

    Dair said:

    SNP taking Kirkcaldy means Labour are not just dead in Scotland.

    Turn out was about 27%, try not to go too crazy or you'll be talking about constituencies being gerrymandered for the Alliance party again.
    All of us on the side of wanting Scottish independence long term can't help but get excited Neil! As I said a few nights ago, I absolutely can't wait for the first Scottish Central Belt declaration presumably around midnight on May 7th / 8th, including the startled looks on the faces of the SLAB workers (the relatively few that remain!) as well as the BBC election crew. A 20% + swing with an SNP gain in somewhere like Motherwell and Wishaw would start the night off well!

    Good night all.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    edited January 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Another brother is taking over.
    How long will he last? At age 79 he is rumored already to be in poor health.
    Do they have children, or does it go to the half brothers even if they do?
    The Saudis use agnatic seniority succession, so it goes to the younger brother first, rather than your own son.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Again, thanks. To me, investing is all about timing - nigel4 was at least on the right side of the property collapse!
    On a technical question... I understand the 1000 pi sequence, but when did it start?
    Afraid I have to go to bed, but I'll catch up tomorrow.

    Martin Armstrong has projected it right back to 6,000BC, and it seems to pick out the key dates in the collapses of the many empires eg Greek, Roman that have enjoyed their moments in the sun in history and then collapsed. 1.5 x 8.6 - 12.9 years seems to be a very important time interval as well - for example the 1987 stockmarket crash to the Millenium stockmarket tops was that exact interval as well as the top of the commodities in 1919 until their depression bottom in December 1932. All in all an incredible model!

    Good night a 2nd time one and all!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Another brother is taking over.
    How long will he last? At age 79 he is rumored already to be in poor health.
    Do they have children, or does it go to the half brothers even if they do?
    The Saudis use agnatic seniority succession, so it goes to the younger brother first, rather than your own son.
    The crown, or the wives? :-)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Another brother is taking over.
    How long will he last? At age 79 he is rumored already to be in poor health.
    Do they have children, or does it go to the half brothers even if they do?
    The Saudis use agnatic seniority succession, so it goes to the younger brother first, rather than your own son.
    Sounds like a system guaranteed to keep people over 70 on the throne.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    SNP just won by-election in Gordon Browns heartland of Kirkcaldy East. Labour are more than fucked and 59 SNP MPs could be on the cards.

    They won't win Orkney & Shetland
    Polling says they really could win it. Yes got 36%, that's pretty close to the 42% that is guaranteed to win the seat.
    What polling? There haven't been any constituency polls yet AFAIK.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Another brother is taking over.
    How long will he last? At age 79 he is rumored already to be in poor health.
    Do they have children, or does it go to the half brothers even if they do?
    The Saudis use agnatic seniority succession, so it goes to the younger brother first, rather than your own son.
    A gerontocracy.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    AndyJS said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    AndyJS said:

    Speedy said:

    Saudi Arabia has a new King.

    Another brother is taking over.
    How long will he last? At age 79 he is rumored already to be in poor health.
    Do they have children, or does it go to the half brothers even if they do?
    The Saudis use agnatic seniority succession, so it goes to the younger brother first, rather than your own son.
    Sounds like a system guaranteed to keep people over 70 on the throne.
    This way you'd never have a regency!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Fascinating article:

    http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-imprinted-brain/201302/why-early-blindness-prevents-schizophrenia

    "As a paper just published in Frontiers in Psychology points out, congenital and early blindness appears to protect against schizophrenia. As the authors note, “across all past papers, there has not been even one reported case of a congenitally blind person who developed schizophrenia.”"
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    The 12 per cent swing in Kirkcaldy puts the SNP bang on their opinion poll ratings of mid to high 40s with a 20 per cent lead over the Labour branch office. Is this enough to turn MIke into a believer?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    SNP just won by-election in Gordon Browns heartland of Kirkcaldy East. Labour are more than fucked and 59 SNP MPs could be on the cards.

    They won't win Orkney & Shetland
    Polling says they really could win it. Yes got 36%, that's pretty close to the 42% that is guaranteed to win the seat.
    What polling? There haven't been any constituency polls yet AFAIK.
    Polling says thast the SNP are have a swing of over 20%. You can work it out for yourself how to applies to the seats.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    SNP just won by-election in Gordon Browns heartland of Kirkcaldy East. Labour are more than fucked and 59 SNP MPs could be on the cards.

    They won't win Orkney & Shetland
    Polling says they really could win it. Yes got 36%, that's pretty close to the 42% that is guaranteed to win the seat.
    What polling? There haven't been any constituency polls yet AFAIK.
    Polling says thast the SNP are have a swing of over 20%. You can work it out for yourself how to applies to the seats.
    I don't think you can apply uniform swing to constituencies like Orkney & Shetland.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Radio Five Live expert: new Saudi king believed to be suffering from dementia.
  • AndyJS said:

    Radio Five Live expert: new Saudi king believed to be suffering from dementia.

    Getting the excuses in before they ask any difficult questions about human rights abuses...
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    AndyJS said:

    Radio Five Live expert: new Saudi king believed to be suffering from dementia.

    He thinks Spandau Ballet is speed metal.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    AndyJS said:

    Radio Five Live expert: new Saudi king believed to be suffering from dementia.

    I think the first King Saud put the mantra 'heir and a spare' to shame!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Radio Five Live expert: new Saudi king believed to be suffering from dementia.

    I think the first King Saud put the mantra 'heir and a spare' to shame!
    More spares than you could puncture on a bed of nails.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,040
    edited January 2015
    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Radio Five Live expert: new Saudi king believed to be suffering from dementia.

    I think the first King Saud put the mantra 'heir and a spare' to shame!
    More spares than you could puncture on a bed of nails.
    And each has their turn of having the crown (or die waiting) until any grandsons have a go. Thoroughly un-British IMO!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    RobD said:

    Tim_B said:

    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Radio Five Live expert: new Saudi king believed to be suffering from dementia.

    I think the first King Saud put the mantra 'heir and a spare' to shame!
    More spares than you could puncture on a bed of nails.
    And each has their turn of having the crown (or die waiting) until any grandsons have a go. Thoroughly un-British IMO!
    I doubt they know where silly mid on or gully stands on the cricket pitch.

    - and the beach is a long way from the sea.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    SNP just won by-election in Gordon Browns heartland of Kirkcaldy East. Labour are more than fucked and 59 SNP MPs could be on the cards.

    They won't win Orkney & Shetland
    Polling says they really could win it. Yes got 36%, that's pretty close to the 42% that is guaranteed to win the seat.
    What polling? There haven't been any constituency polls yet AFAIK.
    Polling says thast the SNP are have a swing of over 20%. You can work it out for yourself how to applies to the seats.
    I don't think you can apply uniform swing to constituencies like Orkney & Shetland.
    According to Prof John Curtice the more labour are ahead the greater the swing to the SNP. I really don't know what to say to Loyalists to ensure then they are finished. This is Gordon Brown's seat, the safest Labout seat in Scotland.

    And Labour are losing.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    SNP just won by-election in Gordon Browns heartland of Kirkcaldy East. Labour are more than fucked and 59 SNP MPs could be on the cards.

    They won't win Orkney & Shetland
    Polling says they really could win it. Yes got 36%, that's pretty close to the 42% that is guaranteed to win the seat.
    What polling? There haven't been any constituency polls yet AFAIK.
    Polling says thast the SNP are have a swing of over 20%. You can work it out for yourself how to applies to the seats.
    I don't think you can apply uniform swing to constituencies like Orkney & Shetland.
    According to Prof John Curtice the more labour are ahead the greater the swing to the SNP. I really don't know what to say to Loyalists to ensure then they are finished. This is Gordon Brown's seat, the safest Labout seat in Scotland.

    And Labour are losing.
    I should point out that I know Orkney and Shetland isn't a labour seat but it follows the path that the higher the SNP margin required is,the better they do.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    AndyJS said:

    Dair said:

    SNP just won by-election in Gordon Browns heartland of Kirkcaldy East. Labour are more than fucked and 59 SNP MPs could be on the cards.

    They won't win Orkney & Shetland
    Polling says they really could win it. Yes got 36%, that's pretty close to the 42% that is guaranteed to win the seat.
    What polling? There haven't been any constituency polls yet AFAIK.
    Polling says thast the SNP are have a swing of over 20%. You can work it out for yourself how to applies to the seats.
    I don't think you can apply uniform swing to constituencies like Orkney & Shetland.
    According to Prof John Curtice the more labour are ahead the greater the swing to the SNP. I really don't know what to say to Loyalists to ensure then they are finished. This is Gordon Brown's seat, the safest Labout seat in Scotland.

    And Labour are losing.
    It was Gordon Brown's seat - he's not standing at the next election and presumably his 'personal' vote is up for grabs. Excellent result for the SNP, but we're not at the GE yet.......

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,913

    Neil said:

    Slightly bizarre men only hustings in South Thanet boycotted by the Labour and Green candidate but not by Farage or, it seems, the Lib Dem or Tory.

    http://www.thanetgazette.co.uk/South-Thanet-hustings-spark-Round-Table-rumpus/story-25907831-detail/story.html

    I wonder if it was a male-only hustings organised by a mosque would UKIP have more to say about it.

    Cost £30 and had a dress code. Not really geared to appeal to all.
    Wonderful.

    This is the same Labour party that has a wimminz only day at conference?
This discussion has been closed.