Saying no to Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com

System · May 27

Saying no to Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com

EXC: Tory MPs tell Boris Johnson: We don’t want you back Senior figures say there's no “appetite” among the party’s 121 MPs as they believe the ex-PM was unpopular with floating voters and the political landscape had changedhttps://t.co/uguBrAKgLI

Read the full story here

Smart51 · May 27

Boris didn't deliver the first time, and was kicked out in disgrace. No one who wants to win wants him back.

RochdalePioneers · May 27

To be fair to many Tory MPs, they won't stick around even if Boris doesn't become leader. They will defect to Reform, or they will be defeated by Reform or the LibDems.

BartholomewRoberts · May 27

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
That's not going to happen while we see the backlash from the cut to WFP and the ending of the landowners IHT exemption. This government inherited both a terrible financial situation and threadbare public services.

That said, the misery is overdone. I have been to both Cheshire and York for family events these last weekends, and both were heaving with folk out spending money.

The fact that places were out heaving with folk out spending money merely emphasises David's point that at this point in the cycle we should be getting towards a budget surplus.

Casino_Royale · May 27

Reform v Labour = the Red Conservatives versus Blue Labour?

HYUFD · May 27

So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%

DecrepiterJohnL · May 27

PMQs – given Keir Starmer's fondness for reminding Kemi of her record in government, imagine how thick his folder would be if Boris were Leader of the Opposition.

Mexicanpete · May 27

Casino_Royale said:
Reform v Labour = the Red Conservatives versus Blue Labour?

Does that make the current (purple) Tories irrelevant?

StillWaters · May 27

FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.

@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.

eek · May 27

Fpt

Daveyboy1961 said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Scott_xP said:

RochdalePioneers said:
There is much hand-wringing up here about the state of Union Street. All cities have seen decline due to the slow down in retail, but surely one of the big drivers for Aberdeen was the opening of Union Square...
The new traffic schemes with the 'bus gates' doesn't help
It's a P&J panic story. The terminal decline of Union Street long pre-dates the annoying bus gate. There are very few people saying "I would go and shop on Union Street but now I have drive that way instead of this way to get to the car park so I won't bother"
City and town centres never learn. The advent of out of town shopping malls or even the grouping them together inside the city has always moved the customers to them. I remember the building of the st Nicholas centre on George Street when I was a student there. Before then union street was bustling and you couldn't move for people all the way up the street. Now it's a ghost town up there.

The story is true everywhere - far too much retail space chasing too few stores (and restaurant chains) many of whom have cost issues that mean expanding isn’t on the agenda nowadays.

Given a large university a lot of the space is being converted into (expensive) student housing but that isn’t so much an option in Scotland due to how Scotland funds its university’s system

Mexicanpete · May 27

DecrepiterJohnL said:
PMQs – given Keir Starmer's fondness for reminding Kemi of her record in government, imagine how thick his folder would be if Boris were Leader of the Opposition.

Although Johnson would simply deny he was ever Prime Minister.

geoffw · May 27

I get quite confused - which is the true Casino_Royale / Sunil_Prasannan ?

Stuartinromford · May 27

On one hand, good for Conservative MPs; they've still got some survival instinct.

On the other, look at how much trouble Boris was prepared to cause to become leader last time. He's in a weaker position this time (out of Parliament and more discredited), but if he wants it, he can still make life unpleasant for anyone in his way.

bondegezou · May 27

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%

And what caused it to be the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century? In part, Boris.

Mexicanpete · May 27

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%

You are generally a very effective polling analyst. When it comes to Johnson you are inhibited by your rose coloured comedy glasses.

Stuartinromford · May 27

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.

Which ones? And are we talking things not being done at all, or costs transferred from the state to individuals?

DavidL · May 27

DecrepiterJohnL said:
PMQs – given Keir Starmer's fondness for reminding Kemi of her record in government, imagine how thick his folder would be if Boris were Leader of the Opposition.

And he would reply, “there are no catastrophes, only opportunities. And, indeed, the opportunity for further catastrophes”.

I don’t think Starmer reading from some briefing note is the kind of opportunity that you think.

As i have been lamenting for far too long now our politics is no longer serious or being conducted by serious people. If you are going to be run by clowns perhaps it would be an idea to choose a funny one.

Morris_Dancer · May 27

FPT:

Good morning, everyone.

F1: Undercutters Ep22, with a brief post-mortem of the woeful Monaco (yet still better than last year) and a happier look ahead to Spain. And then a less happy look ahead to next year when we say goodbye to Barcelona and hello to a highly dubious Madrid track that has a 10 year contract. Also, there are some splendid graphs in the transcript.

Undercutters Ep22 is now up, Monaco post-mortem and #SpainGP preview:
Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-spanish-grand-prix-predictions/

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-spanish-grand-prix-predictions/id1786574257?i=1000710051314

Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/0bac5278-ca41-4c96-8ddc-d87ce1361064/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-spanish-grand-prix-predictions

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7dEYNrTSAQJPyU8AmiemiG

Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/05/f1-2025-spanish-grand-prix-predictions.html

On-topic: foolishly going for Boris Johnson over Jeremy Hunt is what has put the Conservatives in such a dire situation. They had the choice between an adult and a clown.

bondegezou · May 27

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.

Underfund it so it doesn’t perform well, and then say we need to eliminate whole functions. We’ve seen that trick played out before.

We could decide to pay for the functions that we want.

TheScreamingEagles · May 27

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%

It wasn't ex-Remainers who ousted Boris Johnson, or did you miss all those leavers, like I said at the time, Boris Johnson was the first Tory PM in 32 years not to be ousted over Europe.

Secondly the Tory MPs who Iain Martin cites aren't defecting, they will resign as MPs triggering by-elections.

Theuniondivvie · May 27

Off topic immediately.

Much hushed banal observations from pols about the unfortunate events in Liverpool as is standard nowadays, including tributes to the ‘amazing bravery’ from our police and emergency services. I’ve no doubt that these guys display this quality day in, day out, but was there anything over and beyond shown yesterday?

StillWaters · May 27

Stuartinromford said:

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.
Which ones? And are we talking things not being done at all, or costs transferred from the state to individuals?

The big areas have to be entitlements and staffing. But I don’t have the full download on government spending to be more specific than that.

But fundamentally a £150bn annual deficit in decent economic times is simply unaffordable. Taxes have to go up and spending down.

another_richard · May 27

Boris has learned nothing and forgotten nothing from his time as prime minister.

The country has changed and moved on, he hasn't.

Big_G_NorthWales · May 27

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%

Good morning

You never give up in your devotion to Johnson but sadly for you he remains toxic

He is not coming back

And please provide the link to the more in common poll

StillWaters · May 27

bondegezou said:

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.
Underfund it so it doesn’t perform well, and then say we need to eliminate whole functions. We’ve seen that trick played out before.

We could decide to pay for the functions that we want.

We need to figure out what the government should be doing and fund it properly.

All top often it’s a half arsed approach of announcing something good and then forgetting about it.

For example why not invest in training more doctors and nurses rather than importing staff and their dependents. Of course importing staff is cheaper for the NHS because they don’t bear the cost of the extra capacity in other services that is needed (or the reduction in quality of services when capacity isn’t expanded).

But your mindset appears to be that everything the government does and has ever done is necessary and important. I would challenge that.

BartholomewRoberts · May 27

bondegezou said:

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.
Underfund it so it doesn’t perform well, and then say we need to eliminate whole functions. We’ve seen that trick played out before.

We could decide to pay for the functions that we want.

Our tax and spend rate is at an all time high.

That is not my definition of underfunded.

BartholomewRoberts · May 27

Theuniondivvie said:
Off topic immediately.

Much hushed banal observations from pols about the unfortunate events in Liverpool as is standard nowadays, including tributes to the ‘amazing bravery’ from our police and emergency services. I’ve no doubt that these guys display this quality day in, day out, but was there anything over and beyond shown yesterday?

To get to so many injured people in a busy crowd and touch wood not have any fatalities is over and above what would be expected on a normal day surely, yes.

HYUFD · May 27

RochdalePioneers said:
To be fair to many Tory MPs, they won't stick around even if Boris doesn't become leader. They will defect to Reform, or they will be defeated by Reform or the LibDems.

At least as many current Tory MPs would defect to the LDs as Reform if they all looked like losing their seats

wooliedyed · May 27

Morning all
The unnamed MPs would of course 'stick around' and drain the public purse of their salary. 'Made it known' lol
The issue horrifies me so much i will mention it to Iain Martin off the record
Joke party.

TheScreamingEagles · May 27

Theuniondivvie said:
Off topic immediately.

Much hushed banal observations from pols about the unfortunate events in Liverpool as is standard nowadays, including tributes to the ‘amazing bravery’ from our police and emergency services. I’ve no doubt that these guys display this quality day in, day out, but was there anything over and beyond shown yesterday?

I've heard one of the mobile paramedics (a guy on a bike) was hit by the car but gave aid to others more injured.

HYUFD · May 27

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.

Best chance of that probably PM Farage pushing through a UK DOGE like some Reform councils now doing

Big_G_NorthWales · May 27

BartholomewRoberts said:

bondegezou said:

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.
Underfund it so it doesn’t perform well, and then say we need to eliminate whole functions. We’ve seen that trick played out before.

We could decide to pay for the functions that we want.
Our tax and spend rate is at an all time high.

That is not my definition of underfunded.

At sometime in the future, and more likely sooner rather than later, the high spending high taxing experiment will come to a dramatic stop with serious consequences for everyone and the things they take for granted

The inheritance we are handing down to our grandchildren is frankly shameful and it has to be addressed

HYUFD · May 27

bondegezou said:

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
And what caused it to be the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century? In part, Boris.

Wrong, the Tories were polling 30% on the day Boris resigned, at the last general election they ended up with 24% with Rishi and now are polling even below that with Kemi

wooliedyed · May 27

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:
To be fair to many Tory MPs, they won't stick around even if Boris doesn't become leader. They will defect to Reform, or they will be defeated by Reform or the LibDems.
At least as many current Tory MPs would defect to the LDs as Reform if they all looked like losing their seats

They would need to do it fairly soon. Why would either the LDs or Reform take a load of failures from a failed and dying party ahead of their own guys in the run in to an election?

HYUFD · May 27

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
You are generally a very effective polling analyst. When it comes to Johnson you are inhibited by your rose coloured comedy glasses.

Canvassing evidence. Boris is the only Tory leader I have ever canvassed for white working class voters positively liked, even on council estates in 2019 I got a few voters saying they were voting for Boris, note not the Tories

Sean_F · May 27

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.

The government needs to pull out of doing some things, while properly funding what it does do.

Theuniondivvie · May 27

BartholomewRoberts said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Off topic immediately.

Much hushed banal observations from pols about the unfortunate events in Liverpool as is standard nowadays, including tributes to the ‘amazing bravery’ from our police and emergency services. I’ve no doubt that these guys display this quality day in, day out, but was there anything over and beyond shown yesterday?
To get to so many injured people in a busy crowd and touch wood not have any fatalities is over and above what would be expected on a normal day surely, yes.

Was it amazingly brave?
Perhaps the cops intervening between an enraged mob and the object of their attention might have required a bit of extra fortitude.

StillWaters · May 27

HYUFD said:

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.
Best chance of that probably PM Farage pushing through a UK DOGE like some Reform councils now doing

He’d only mess it up. Then we’d be messed.

HYUFD · May 27

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
It wasn't ex-Remainers who ousted Boris Johnson, or did you miss all those leavers, like I said at the time, Boris Johnson was the first Tory PM in 32 years not to be ousted over Europe.

Secondly the Tory MPs who Iain Martin cites aren't defecting, they will resign as MPs triggering by-elections.

It was mainly ex Remainers behind the 2022 coup plus Cummings acolytes and Rishi and Jarvis

Sean_F · May 27

HYUFD said:

bondegezou said:

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
And what caused it to be the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century? In part, Boris.
Wrong, the Tories were polling 30% on the day Boris resigned, at the last general election they ended up with 24% with Rishi and now are polling even below that with Kemi

But Boris was dishonest, corrupt, incompetent, and impossible to work with.

DavidL · May 27

BartholomewRoberts said:

bondegezou said:

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.
Underfund it so it doesn’t perform well, and then say we need to eliminate whole functions. We’ve seen that trick played out before.

We could decide to pay for the functions that we want.
Our tax and spend rate is at an all time high.

That is not my definition of underfunded.

The services are woeful because the productivity is woeful. The recent scandals of people having multiple public sector jobs at the same time show the complete lack of accountability and managerial competence in the public sector. Mangers where this has happened need to be sacked so that their colleagues can relearn what their job is. People with chronic absenteeism need to be disciplined and removed. Committee meetings need to be limited in numbers and duration. Personnel departments need to be largely abolished. Officers focused on promoting some perceived good rather than the objectives of the organisation need to be ended.
The focus should be on the service provided, not the interests of the staff. We need results for our money.

HYUFD · May 27

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
Good morning

You never give up in your devotion to Johnson but sadly for you he remains toxic

He is not coming back

And please provide the link to the more in common poll

Page 48 here

https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/j5jhk22f/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf

Big_G_NorthWales · May 27

HYUFD said:

bondegezou said:

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
And what caused it to be the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century? In part, Boris.
Wrong, the Tories were polling 30% on the day Boris resigned, at the last general election they ended up with 24% with Rishi and now are polling even below that with Kemi

You overlook not only the decline in Johnson ratings but the calamitous Truss period, that combined destroyed the conservative party with Sunak battling their toxic legacy

And before you shout I will go Lib Dem then you are utterly wrong

I will continue to vote conservative, but here in Llandudno if Plaid stand a better chance of beating Labour, then I will vote for Plaid

Something we have in common

wooliedyed · May 27

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
You are generally a very effective polling analyst. When it comes to Johnson you are inhibited by your rose coloured comedy glasses.
Canvassing evidence. Boris is the only Tory leader I have ever canvassed for white working class leaders positively liked, even on council estates in 2019 I got a few voters saying they were voting for Boris, note not the Tories

Id agree he has something that effects some people the same way Farage does - that these rich power seekers are somehow on their side. And he, also like Farage, has the 'and my Nan likes him' thing

boulay · May 27

Theuniondivvie said:
Off topic immediately.

Much hushed banal observations from pols about the unfortunate events in Liverpool as is standard nowadays, including tributes to the ‘amazing bravery’ from our police and emergency services. I’ve no doubt that these guys display this quality day in, day out, but was there anything over and beyond shown yesterday?

I think the praise is based on the reports from eyewitnesses that as the car was driving through people, police officers were actively running towards tue car to intervene without knowing if they would be targeted or, if it had been a v bad terror incident, potentially blown up of someone wanted to get as far into a crowd as possible before hitting the switch.

Like you I did think when I heard the praise that it was a bit wanky but having listened to eyewitnesses asked about it it seems deserved.

AramintaMoonbeamQC · May 27

BartholomewRoberts said:

Theuniondivvie said:
Off topic immediately.

Much hushed banal observations from pols about the unfortunate events in Liverpool as is standard nowadays, including tributes to the ‘amazing bravery’ from our police and emergency services. I’ve no doubt that these guys display this quality day in, day out, but was there anything over and beyond shown yesterday?
To get to so many injured people in a busy crowd and touch wood not have any fatalities is over and above what would be expected on a normal day surely, yes.

The large number of police immediately on the scene and running towards the danger when it was very unclear that it wasn't a terrorist incident, fair play to them.

The senior coppers managing the event so poorly that a car managed to get inside the cordon when there were hundreds of thousands of people still to disperse, not so much. Suspect the 'robust traffic management plan' will come under some scrutiny, but the police normally investigate themselves and discover that everything is fine, so big fat early retirement pensions for them.

another_richard · May 27

HYUFD said:

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.
Best chance of that probably PM Farage pushing through a UK DOGE like some Reform councils now doing

Musk's DOGE has been a failure.

The pound shop wannabes at Reform councils will be failures as well.

They'll be plenty of talk - from vested interests on both sides - but very little action.

isam · May 27

It was a mistake to remove Boris as PM but I don’t see a way back for him now. He lost one section of 2019 Tory support with Partygate, and those who weren’t so bothered by that are likely to be furious with him about the increase in immigration. He’ll be attacked on both fronts by all the other leaders, and I don’t see how he can wriggle out of it. A shame for him that his time as PM coincided with the pandemic, he must feel frustrated, but that’s life

Big_G_NorthWales · May 27

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
It wasn't ex-Remainers who ousted Boris Johnson, or did you miss all those leavers, like I said at the time, Boris Johnson was the first Tory PM in 32 years not to be ousted over Europe.

Secondly the Tory MPs who Iain Martin cites aren't defecting, they will resign as MPs triggering by-elections.
It was mainly ex Remainers behind the 2022 coup plus Cummings acolytes and Rishi and Jarvis

No - It was Johnson's behaviour and entirely his responsibility

algarkirk · May 27

Casino_Royale said:
Reform v Labour = the Red Conservatives versus Blue Labour?

Terms like left and right are useless and have been for some time. a better set of terms are needed.

Tim Montgomerie (now Reform, no idea if he has any official position within it) was making two interesting points on R4 Today this morning.

The first was as above about left and right.

The second was that Reform's costings and promises WRT public finances don't add up. Obvs everyone knows that (apart from Reform voters), but TM saying it is interesting. He added that they will add up in due course.

Worth a listen. It was TM and Andrew Fisher, between 7.45am and 8am this morning.

TheScreamingEagles · May 27

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
It wasn't ex-Remainers who ousted Boris Johnson, or did you miss all those leavers, like I said at the time, Boris Johnson was the first Tory PM in 32 years not to be ousted over Europe.

Secondly the Tory MPs who Iain Martin cites aren't defecting, they will resign as MPs triggering by-elections.
It was mainly ex Remainers behind the 2022 coup plus Cummings acolytes and Rishi and Jarvis

Coup? LOL.

Boris Johnson lied about putting a known sexual predator in a position of authority then got others to lie about it, when the cabinet found out they were furious.

Lest we forget a month earlier Boris Johnson assured the party he had changed and wouldn't lie any more during the vote of confidence.

Scott_xP · May 27

isam said:
It was a mistake to remove Boris as PM

It was a mistake to install BoZo as PM

Stuartinromford · May 27

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
It wasn't ex-Remainers who ousted Boris Johnson, or did you miss all those leavers, like I said at the time, Boris Johnson was the first Tory PM in 32 years not to be ousted over Europe.

Secondly the Tory MPs who Iain Martin cites aren't defecting, they will resign as MPs triggering by-elections.
It was mainly ex Remainers behind the 2022 coup plus Cummings acolytes and Rishi and Jarvis
Coup? LOL.

Boris Johnson lied about putting a known sexual predator in a position of authority then got others to lie about it, when the cabinet found out they were furious.

Lest we forget a month earlier Boris Johnson assured the party he had changed and wouldn't lie any more during the vote of confidence.

So his promise to stop lying was... a lie?

wooliedyed · May 27

isam said:
It was a mistake to remove Boris as PM but I don’t see a way back for him now. He lost one section of 2019 Tory support with Partygate, and those who weren’t so bothered by that are likely to be furious with him about the increase in immigration. He’ll be attacked on both fronts by all the other leaders, and I don’t see how he can wriggle out of it. A shame for him that his time as PM coincided with the pandemic, he must feel frustrated, but that’s life

Its a question of whether there are still enough starstruck Boris adorers out there who will shrug at the above and swoon for a hair ruffle and a quick bit of Latin and him in a union jack on a tightrope (i was going to say metaphorically but its Boris).
Theres probably over 20% for the Tories with Boris and perhaps over 25% which could see recovery or even
Largest party with labour declining.
But thats also not something totally unachievable to others (Cleverly or Jenrick or Hunt or even a revived Kemi in bizarro world)

Andy_JS · May 27

fpt

viewcode said:
Reading for the morning

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167629625000499
https://bsky.app/profile/volts.wtf/post/3lpu6ksru3k2h

Interesting, thanks viewcode.

BatteryCorrectHorse · May 27

For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.

algarkirk · May 27

isam said:
It was a mistake to remove Boris as PM but I don’t see a way back for him now. He lost one section of 2019 Tory support with Partygate, and those who weren’t so bothered by that are likely to be furious with him about the increase in immigration. He’ll be attacked on both fronts by all the other leaders, and I don’t see how he can wriggle out of it. A shame for him that his time as PM coincided with the pandemic, he must feel frustrated, but that’s life

He blew away an amazing opportunity. A decent Brexit deal, as promised, would reset the UK for a generation. His fantastic communications ability with the public would unite the nation, his liberal instincts would cure the Tory party of the instinct to ban things. All thrown away because he would not or could not maintain a very small quantity of ordinary personal and political self discipline, and, on Brexit, because there never was an intelligent plan.

bondegezou · May 27

StillWaters said:

bondegezou said:

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.
Underfund it so it doesn’t perform well, and then say we need to eliminate whole functions. We’ve seen that trick played out before.

We could decide to pay for the functions that we want.
We need to figure out what the government should be doing and fund it properly.

All top often it’s a half arsed approach of announcing something good and then forgetting about it.

For example why not invest in training more doctors and nurses rather than importing staff and their dependents. Of course importing staff is cheaper for the NHS because they don’t bear the cost of the extra capacity in other services that is needed (or the reduction in quality of services when capacity isn’t expanded).

But your mindset appears to be that everything the government does and has ever done is necessary and important. I would challenge that.

I would challenge the implication that we aren’t figuring out what the govt should be doing. That’s what politicians do all the time. It’s a naive, even Poujadist view, that we just need to figure it properly and then we’ll solve all our problems.

Talking in the abstract is easy. You’ve identified one thing the Govt could do and noted it would cost more, so you’ve not exactly delivered on your agenda of cutting costs. What specific costs would you cut?

Gallowgate · May 27

DOGE should be a reminder that you can’t really reform the Civil Service or public sector organisations quickly through top down diktat or mindless cost cutting. Instead the solution is probably high level organisation-specific management (taken from outside) with a direct report to either the PM or the secretary of state with clear measures of performance/failure.

ydoethur · May 27

Stuartinromford said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
It wasn't ex-Remainers who ousted Boris Johnson, or did you miss all those leavers, like I said at the time, Boris Johnson was the first Tory PM in 32 years not to be ousted over Europe.

Secondly the Tory MPs who Iain Martin cites aren't defecting, they will resign as MPs triggering by-elections.
It was mainly ex Remainers behind the 2022 coup plus Cummings acolytes and Rishi and Jarvis
Coup? LOL.

Boris Johnson lied about putting a known sexual predator in a position of authority then got others to lie about it, when the cabinet found out they were furious.

Lest we forget a month earlier Boris Johnson assured the party he had changed and wouldn't lie any more during the vote of confidence.
So his promise to stop lying was... a lie?

He lies not because it's in his interests but because it's in his nature.

Taz · May 27

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.

And the so,called cuts to UC and PIP are exactly what DavidL is talking about it merely slows growth over this parliament to circa 26 billion GBP from circa 33 billion GBP

So still a massive increase. Both numerically and in real terms. Still we will probably learn the hard way. So be it.

But Gallowgate is right, it won’t happen, as voters don’t want it and the politicians don’t have the courage to take the decisions needed. Just look at some, like the SNP and Lib Dem’s still wanting WASPE women to get an undeserved handout. On GMB this morning the Labour guy was asked where is the 5 billion coming from for abolishing two child cap and WFA cancellation, no answer.

We hear these things ‘save money’ but it’s all intangeable and never materialises.

wooliedyed · May 27

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.

You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number.
If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards

algarkirk · May 27

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.

The two huge issues: Families in work are still fairly bigly reliant on the needs based non universal benefits system to live. (We keep being told that most child poverty is in working households).

Living on benefits without working is allowed as a permanent way of life.

No tinkering without basically sorting those two will help. As in due course Reform will discover.

Discussing tinkering is displacement activity. The media and mainstream politics is in collusion to keep it that way.

Taz · May 27

Junior Doctors, now renamed to Resident Doctors, ballet on strike action opens today.

Just want another 20% on top of the large rise last September.

Glad we’re so flush with cash.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c771dgm8vrpo

ydoethur · May 27

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number.
If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards

Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.

DecrepiterJohnL · May 27

Club cricket side bowled out for two after conceding 426
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2025/05/26/richmond-club-all-out-two-north-london-xi-nightmare/ (£££)

ydoethur · May 27

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Club cricket side bowled out for two after conceding 426
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2025/05/26/richmond-club-all-out-two-north-london-xi-nightmare/ (£££)

Blimey, Yorkshire had an even worse day than usual? Poor Moonrabbit.

kjh · May 27

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
Good morning

You never give up in your devotion to Johnson but sadly for you he remains toxic

He is not coming back

And please provide the link to the more in common poll
Page 48 here

https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/j5jhk22f/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf

Thanks for that @HYUFD . That is a very readable document. I have no idea how accurate the analysis is and I have only just skimmed it, but it is very informative in a very easy to read format.

algarkirk · May 27

Taz said:
Junior Doctors, now renamed to Resident Doctors, ballet on strike action opens today.

Just want another 20% on top of the large rise last September.

Glad we’re so flush with cash.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c771dgm8vrpo

Nureyev to the barricades.

wooliedyed · May 27

ydoethur said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number.
If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.

Yes thats yet another potential flashpoint.
Who leads?

Mexicanpete · May 27

Taz said:
Junior Doctors, now renamed to Resident Doctors, ballet on strike action opens today.

Just want another 20% on top of the large rise last September.

Glad we’re so flush with cash.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c771dgm8vrpo

Doctors are leading the Government on a merry dance.

wooliedyed · May 27

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Club cricket side bowled out for two after conceding 426
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2025/05/26/richmond-club-all-out-two-north-london-xi-nightmare/ (£££)

He won the toss and bowled! HAHAHAHAHA

algarkirk · May 27

ydoethur said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number.
If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.

The massive growth in this SEND thing and allied activity suggests we are far too narrow in how we describe non-special or usual in the shape of small children.

WhisperingOracle · May 27

I love the idea of a ballet on strike action.

The Nutcracker meets socialist realism.

boulay · May 27

Mexicanpete said:

Taz said:
Junior Doctors, now renamed to Resident Doctors, ballet on strike action opens today.

Just want another 20% on top of the large rise last September.

Glad we’re so flush with cash.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c771dgm8vrpo
Doctors are leading the Government on a merry dance.

Hopefully to the sound of Dr Beat by Miami Sound Machine.

nico67 · May 27

Taz said:
Junior Doctors, now renamed to Resident Doctors, ballet on strike action opens today.

Just want another 20% on top of the large rise last September.

Glad we’re so flush with cash.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c771dgm8vrpo

I doubt there will be the same public support this time. Many workers have suffered in that post 2008 period and won’t take kindly to wage demands that are totally unaffordable .

williamglenn · May 27

WhisperingOracle said:
I love the idea of a ballet on strike action.

The Nutcracker meets socialist realism.

Thatcher missed a trick not introducing a compulsory strike ballet.

another_richard · May 27

algarkirk said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
The two huge issues: Families in work are still fairly bigly reliant on the needs based non universal benefits system to live. (We keep being told that most child poverty is in working households).

Living on benefits without working is allowed as a permanent way of life.

No tinkering without basically sorting those two will help. As in due course Reform will discover.

Discussing tinkering is displacement activity. The media and mainstream politics is in collusion to keep it that way.

That also depends on the definition of 'child poverty' and 'working households'.

IIRC a single parent doing less than 16 hours work per week would qualify as a 'working household'.

Dopermean · May 27

wooliedyed said:

ydoethur said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number.
If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Yes thats yet another potential flashpoint.
Who leads?

It seemed so simple to be a "success", sort out waiting lists and asylum processing backlogs, don't piss your own voters and too many other people off.
Instead they've pissed off the most vocal special interest groups and are now making a mess of a reverse-ferret.

algarkirk · May 27

WhisperingOracle said:
I love the idea of a ballet on strike action.

The Nutcracker meets socialist realism.

I saw a production of Marriage of Figaro at the Edinburgh festival last year which tried to do that with opera. I'm still suffering flashbacks.

The recent death of Grigorovich at 98 is a reminder that under socialist realism and its grim successors real ballet of stellar quality survived. And survives. Floreat Bolshoi.

rottenborough · May 27

If Saudi and US threats to drive oil prices below $50 a barrel are realised, the Russian war machine is likely to grind to a halt by this year’s end.

Telegraph

RochdalePioneers · May 27

BartholomewRoberts said:

bondegezou said:

StillWaters said:
FPT

Gallowgate said:

DavidL said:

Taz said:
A cheery tone about the global bond market. A reckoning is coming. Oh yes.

Labour is going to Truss the economy. The moment there is the slightest pressure they fold.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/05/25/bond-markets-open-revolt-global-fiscal-reckoning/
This is exactly what I have been saying since well before the election, really from the point Truss tried to write a blank cheque for our energy costs and then Hunt merely wrote a humongous one.

Right now government finances should be at least neutral, arguably in surplus. No war, no recession, no pandemic, no particular stress. We are borrowing £12bn a month. Reeves went on about an £18bn black hole, raised the taxes to fill it and then blew them all and more on public sector pay. The reality is that there is a £150bn black hole and nobody will even talk about it, let alone address it.

We need to massively increase taxes, massively decrease public spending, massively reduce the public sector headcount, cut the unsustainable generosity of public sector pensions and keep this up for a generation or more. Pretending that growth is the answer is simply delusional because public sector spending grows at least as fast as the economy.
It’s not going to happen though. Nobody
wants more austerity. Reform certainly aren’t going to do that.
@DavidL isn't suggesting austerity, which is just a gentle squeezing of expenses (or in the case of Osborne a reduction in the rate of growth).

There needs to be a fundamental reassessment of what we want government to do. Whole functions need to be eliminated for it to be affordable long term.
Underfund it so it doesn’t perform well, and then say we need to eliminate whole functions. We’ve seen that trick played out before.

We could decide to pay for the functions that we want.
Our tax and spend rate is at an all time high.

That is not my definition of underfunded.

This is the grotesque parody of our situation.

We are spending record amounts at the top line
We are absurdly and inefficiently organised
We have catastrophic cash shortages at the point of delivery

You are looking at top line spending and saying "we need to cut". Meanwhile health, education, local government crumble into ruin.

We need to transform the way we spend. That will mean a brief increase followed by a big drop in operational costs. The example above being our perverse approach to staffing. We say that we can't afford to train or pay teachers or medical staff. Then when presented with a catastrophic crisis we spend *more* on emergency provision to fill the hole.

We will need to keep paying to fill the hole *and* to pay for staff training for a brief period. Then with sufficient staff to actually operate we can remove much of the waste from emergency provision costs.

algarkirk · May 27

another_richard said:

algarkirk said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
The two huge issues: Families in work are still fairly bigly reliant on the needs based non universal benefits system to live. (We keep being told that most child poverty is in working households).

Living on benefits without working is allowed as a permanent way of life.

No tinkering without basically sorting those two will help. As in due course Reform will discover.

Discussing tinkering is displacement activity. The media and mainstream politics is in collusion to keep it that way.
That also depends on the definition of 'child poverty' and 'working households'.

IIRC a single parent doing less than 16 hours work per week would qualify as a 'working household'.

Of course. Nothing is simple. Especially the relation of words, descriptions, things and reality in the realm of politics. Do you think they expect people to understand stuff?

wooliedyed · May 27

Dopermean said:

wooliedyed said:

ydoethur said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number.
If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Yes thats yet another potential flashpoint.
Who leads?
It seemed so simple to be a "success", sort out waiting lists and asylum processing backlogs, don't piss your own voters and too many other people off.
Instead they've pissed off the most vocal special interest groups and are now making a mess of a reverse-ferret.

Yep.
They can't be popular and do what they think needs doing (that's it's own argument)
They can't do the things and carry the party/country

Labour are totally the wrong party for this.
Bloody voters.

Edit - Labour are as wrong for right now as May was for Brexit

Mexicanpete · May 27

isam said:
It was a mistake to remove Boris as PM but I don’t see a way back for him now. He lost one section of 2019 Tory support with Partygate, and those who weren’t so bothered by that are likely to be furious with him about the increase in immigration. He’ll be attacked on both fronts by all the other leaders, and I don’t see how he can wriggle out of it. A shame for him that his time as PM coincided with the pandemic, he must feel frustrated, but that’s life

His star ascended through COVID. He claimed he got all the big calls right and his fans agreed. His detractors and neutrals were not so convinced. He built up a hat full of goodwill nonetheless and personally blew it with Partygate and Pincher. Johnson was not the victim but the architect of his dramatic decline.

Dopermean · May 27

ydoethur said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Club cricket side bowled out for two after conceding 426
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2025/05/26/richmond-club-all-out-two-north-london-xi-nightmare/ (£££)
Blimey, Yorkshire had an even worse day than usual? Poor Moonrabbit.

So one club struggled to field a team and the other club had no 1st or 2nd team fixture...
League secretary will be annoyed

stodge · May 27

Morning all

Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?

I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.

Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.

Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.

The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?

wooliedyed · May 27

stodge said:
Morning all

Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?

I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.

Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.

Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.

The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?

Swinney in recent times is the only one I think

wooliedyed · May 27

Mexicanpete said:

isam said:
It was a mistake to remove Boris as PM but I don’t see a way back for him now. He lost one section of 2019 Tory support with Partygate, and those who weren’t so bothered by that are likely to be furious with him about the increase in immigration. He’ll be attacked on both fronts by all the other leaders, and I don’t see how he can wriggle out of it. A shame for him that his time as PM coincided with the pandemic, he must feel frustrated, but that’s life
His star ascended through COVID. He claimed he got all the big calls right and his fans agreed. His detractors and neutrals were not so convinced. He built up a hat full of goodwill nonetheless and personally blew it with Partygate and Pincher. Johnson was not the victim but the architect of his dramatic decline.

You forgot a P - Paterson

Dopermean · May 27

wooliedyed said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Club cricket side bowled out for two after conceding 426
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2025/05/26/richmond-club-all-out-two-north-london-xi-nightmare/ (£££)
He won the toss and bowled! HAHAHAHAHA

Could have been over in 30 minutes if they'd batted.

BartholomewRoberts · May 27

Stuartinromford said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:
So in other words a handful of Rishi loyalist MPs or ex Remainers who removed Boris in 2022 leading to the worst Tory defeat since the 18th century might go LD if he returned.

Meanwhile as MoreinCommon found actual swing voters still like Boris, it found the Conservatives retaking the lead on 26% with Boris back, Reform down to 23% and Labour stuck on 22%
It wasn't ex-Remainers who ousted Boris Johnson, or did you miss all those leavers, like I said at the time, Boris Johnson was the first Tory PM in 32 years not to be ousted over Europe.

Secondly the Tory MPs who Iain Martin cites aren't defecting, they will resign as MPs triggering by-elections.
It was mainly ex Remainers behind the 2022 coup plus Cummings acolytes and Rishi and Jarvis
Coup? LOL.

Boris Johnson lied about putting a known sexual predator in a position of authority then got others to lie about it, when the cabinet found out they were furious.

Lest we forget a month earlier Boris Johnson assured the party he had changed and wouldn't lie any more during the vote of confidence.
So his promise to stop lying was... a lie?

Thank goodness he's been replaced by that white Knight of honesty, Sir Starmer.

His pre-election promises not to cut winter fuel allowance or increase national insurance won't immediately be broken then, will they?

RochdalePioneers · May 27

ydoethur said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number.
If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.

Whats your take on this @ydoethur ? My high school had a SEND unit bolted onto the school - kids would attend normal classes where they could thanks to additional staff and resources.

My general impression is that schools don't have enough staff and resources to function even with 0 SEND kids. In reality we're much better at diagnosing things like Autism which was largely ignored previously which requires more resources not less.

If we actually resourced schools properly with a generous provision of teaching and support staff, could we remove some of the specialist / emergency SEND spending which all seems to be delivered on a postcode lottery basis?

algarkirk · May 27

stodge said:
Morning all

Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?

I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.

Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.

Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.

The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?

A possible Why? is this. The Tory hierarchy must know more than we do about the Tory party. Does anyone join? Is there a talent pool coming up? Are there MPs and potential MPs that could be the front bench statemen and women of 10-40 years time of international stature? Are there Tory policy wonks with decent long term ideas and strategies that make sense over the next decades? Are they writing and publishing top quality books and articles? Does the hierarchy know what the Tory party is for? Does the Spectator or Telegraph make coherent sense?

Probably no to all these.

So Boris, as you go crashing down, may be worth a try.

wooliedyed · May 27

Dopermean said:

wooliedyed said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Club cricket side bowled out for two after conceding 426
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2025/05/26/richmond-club-all-out-two-north-london-xi-nightmare/ (£££)
He won the toss and bowled! HAHAHAHAHA
Could have been over in 30 minutes if they'd batted.

I've been in a team bowled out for twenty something chasing over 300 - they had a bloody under 18 international leg spinner playing! We had some of my mates kids and a few pissheads

ydoethur · May 27

RochdalePioneers said:

ydoethur said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number.
If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Whats your take on this @ydoethur ? My high school had a SEND unit bolted onto the school - kids would attend normal classes where they could thanks to additional staff and resources.

My general impression is that schools don't have enough staff and resources to function even with 0 SEND kids. In reality we're much better at diagnosing things like Autism which was largely ignored previously which requires more resources not less.

If we actually resourced schools properly with a generous provision of teaching and support staff, could we remove some of the specialist / emergency SEND spending which all seems to be delivered on a postcode lottery basis?

Yes.

Especially if we dramatically cut class sizes.

But that won't happen. It would be expensive in the short term, whatever the substantial longer term gains, and no politician is willing to spend upfront to make big money later (exhibit A - HS2).

RochdalePioneers · May 27

algarkirk said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
The two huge issues: Families in work are still fairly bigly reliant on the needs based non universal benefits system to live. (We keep being told that most child poverty is in working households).

Living on benefits without working is allowed as a permanent way of life.

No tinkering without basically sorting those two will help. As in due course Reform will discover.

Discussing tinkering is displacement activity. The media and mainstream politics is in collusion to keep it that way.

Work doesn't pay the bills - that is the reality for millions of people. No matter how hard they work they can't keep up with the crippling cost of housing and the crippling cost of our broken energy market putting the price of everything up.

I have no doubt at all that some free-market people will demand that we just pull the spending on in-work support without addressing the cost of living issue. Which never actually explains how people are expected to survive...

Eabhal · May 27

wooliedyed said:

stodge said:
Morning all

Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?

I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.

Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.

Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.

The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?
Swinney in recent times is the only one I think

And he'll probably win the next Scottish election. I'm not sure that's the right lesson for the Conservatives though!

Sean_F · May 27

algarkirk said:

WhisperingOracle said:
I love the idea of a ballet on strike action.

The Nutcracker meets socialist realism.
I saw a production of Marriage of Figaro at the Edinburgh festival last year which tried to do that with opera. I'm still suffering flashbacks.

The recent death of Grigorovich at 98 is a reminder that under socialist realism and its grim successors real ballet of stellar quality survived. And survives. Floreat Bolshoi.

The one partial redeeming feature of the Soviet Communists was the value they placed on great art, music, and literature.

ydoethur · May 27

wooliedyed said:

Dopermean said:

wooliedyed said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Club cricket side bowled out for two after conceding 426
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2025/05/26/richmond-club-all-out-two-north-london-xi-nightmare/ (£££)
He won the toss and bowled! HAHAHAHAHA
Could have been over in 30 minutes if they'd batted.
I've been in a team bowled out for twenty something chasing over 300 - they had a bloody under 18 international leg spinner playing! We had some of my mates kids and a few pissheads

You play for Lancashire?

algarkirk · May 27

RochdalePioneers said:

ydoethur said:

wooliedyed said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:
For the first time my gut is saying that this Labour Government is heading for disaster.

I get the political argument for reversing the WFA changes but they’re pretty naive if they think this will be the start. The MPs will come back for more. And who is this policy change going to win back anyway? Surely it’s too late now. Fundamentally I still think the original policy was right.

The 2 child limit, who is this change designed to win over? It’s curious that Farage is proposing also to scrap it but I just can’t think instinctively this is the right policy to win back anyone either.

HL has said investor confidence in the UK has risen after April which is encouraging but will the strong growth in Q1 really be sustained? I worry that the champagne is being popped without much evidence of a long term trend.

Labour runs the risk of doing the same as Biden, where the economy is strong on the numbers but working people feel nothing has changed. That is where Farage will be in a strong position.

There was some good news about Albania being willing to take failed asylum seekers but how does one become a failed asylum seeker? Shouldn’t be we processing people offshore instead of sending failed ones there? Maybe it’s just the start but it just didn’t feel like a convincing enough idea for me. We need an offshore processing centre and fast.

Still many years to go and that but Farage is starting to give me the Boris Johnson feeling, that he’s winning over working class voters who aren’t going to go back to Labour. And Labour is thinking they will never vote for him. Feels a bit like 2019 all over again.

Labour has the levers. But I’m more sceptical than I was that they know which to pull.
You are right i think to sense disaster approaching. PIP is the flashpoint. With 100 to 150 at least threatening to rebel and frontbenchers on resignation watch the U turns on WFA and two kids will only harden that rebellion and increase its number.
If he three line whips the vote it could be the end of at least Starmer, Reeves and Kendall. If he u turns or waters down then nothing will have credibility going forwards
Worth keeping an eye on proposed reforms to SEND in education too. That's going to be a real mess because the government's proposals would require legislative changes and they would undoubtedly be controversial.
Whats your take on this @ydoethur ? My high school had a SEND unit bolted onto the school - kids would attend normal classes where they could thanks to additional staff and resources.

My general impression is that schools don't have enough staff and resources to function even with 0 SEND kids. In reality we're much better at diagnosing things like Autism which was largely ignored previously which requires more resources not less.

If we actually resourced schools properly with a generous provision of teaching and support staff, could we remove some of the specialist / emergency SEND spending which all seems to be delivered on a postcode lottery basis?

Everything is possible if resourced well enough. But there is no field I can think of which is not wanting massively extra resource, especially the costly ones - NHS, welfare, education, defence, housing.

So 'more resource' is the question, not the answer.

ydoethur · May 27

stodge said:
Morning all

Apart from in a caretaker capacity, how often has a political party removed a leader and then, at some point in the future, re-instated that former leader as the new leader?

I can't recall the Conservatives ever having done it - at least since Peel.

Arthur Henderson was Labour leader on three separate occasions but teo of those were in the early days of the Party before WW1 and the third was, I believe, as a caretaker, after MacDonald and before Lansbury. Vince Cable was only caretaker leader after Sir Menzies Campbell stepped down.

Parties don't bring back leaders - it's not the same as a football club rehiring a former manager though that doesn't often end well.

The only question proponents of a Johnson return need to ask is why?

Bonar Law, 1922. Possibly also Lloyd George 1926.

Macdonald had several stints as Chairman of the Labour Party but that was under rather different rules.

Before that I'm thinking it was Earl Grey in 1829.

Saying no to Boris Johnson – politicalbetting.com

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