politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI phone poll has SNP with 28% lead in Scotland

I read that Bad Al is back helping Ed Miliband. I'm sure Ed said something about not going negative, yeah right.

With Campbell in for Labour and Crosby for Tories, going to a clean fight all the way to May.

FrancisUrquhart said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/david-cameron-nigel-farage-and-the-real-leaders-debate-nandos-versus-harvester-9993339.html

Jeez F##king Christ....This and bloody Page 3....the world is going to hell in a handcart and all people are obsessing about is breasts (the human and chicken variety).

I couldn't believe R5 was leading with Page 3 all yesterday, then after all the BS, oh ISIS are threatening to lop off two Japanese hostages heads, former head of MI6 says another terrorist attack can't be prevented and about 10 other more important stories, than if Sophie, 21, from Bedford appears with her tits out or covered up. It is as bad as Sophie's view on the merits of EU expansion or Quantitative Easing.

I don't give a s##t if Cameron prefers Harvester or Nando's, or what Farage thinks about this or anybody else frankly.

I wonder what breaking point will be for the inane questions, faux outrage, focus group answers, lack of conviction in politics? Surely one day people will favour substance over spin?

SouthamObserver said:

FF42 said:

Toms said:

What Labour must do in Scotland is-------their best.
I think Jim Murphy will see to that.

If he can survive to next year, the Holyrood election is not likely to be quite so bad and even if he keeps ten seats, expectations are so low that it will seem like a mini triumph.

Coalitions work by agreeing to what you can both agree on and agreeing to disagree on the rest. In spite of the possible 50 seats there won't be a coalition between the SNP and another party unless both sides can find areas of common interest. What the SNP can do however is to vote on a no confidence motion with whichever of Labour or Conservative that doesn't get into government and bring the latter down.

There is no way that the SNP will vote to bring down a minority Labour government. They did that once before and it turned out very badly for them.

IT's going to be interesting. It also depends on whether the position of the other of Labour/Tories has been strengthened. There's no reason to vote no confidence unless their position has strengthened. I suspect the SNP veto waging power won't amount to much, but we won't find that out until after we vote. Their best bet is to go for pure pork barrel, I think. Nobody in government cares about the odd billion bung.

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/david-cameron-nigel-farage-and-the-real-leaders-debate-nandos-versus-harvester-9993339.html

Jeez F##king Christ....This and bloody Page 3....the world is going to hell in a handcart and all people are obsessing about is breasts (the human and chicken variety).

I couldn't believe R5 was leading with Page 3 all yesterday, then after all the BS, oh ISIS are threatening to lop off two Japanese hostages heads, former head of MI6 says another terrorist attack can't be prevented and about 10 other more important stories, than if Sophie, 21, from Bedford appears with her tits out or covered up. It is as bad as Sophie's view on the merits of EU expansion or Quantitative Easing.

I don't give a s##t if Cameron prefers Harvester or Nando's, or what Farage thinks about this or anybody else frankly.

I wonder what breaking point will be for the inane questions, faux outrage, focus group answers, lack of conviction in politics? Surely one day people will favour substance over spin?

Next we ask Ed Miliband how to eat a burger.

Oh FPT re Page 3 "Je Suis", Garry Bushell said it should be "Je suis Charlies"

rottenborough said:

Greens on 20%, in 2nd place, amongst students according to new poll:

http://www.studentmoneysaver.co.uk/article/student-voting-survey-results-greens-2nd-largest-party/

And the Lib Dems on under 4%. How on Earth has Nick Clegg remained as party leader? He should have had the decency to resign immediately after the Euro elections.

The response of the German political elite to the Pegida protests has been breathtakingly arrogant and dismissive IMO. A bit like the initial attitude to UKIP in this country.

The Tories have finally pulled ahead decisively with Betfair's most seats markets:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416473

Neil said:

RobD said:

Neil said:

RobD said:

Neil said:

RobD said:

Some light reading on the Green Menance:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/01/welcome-to-the-bonkers-world-of-the-green-party-manifesto/

Although I do support their policy on less advertisements!

It's just a rehash of the Telegraph article. Though I'm glad the blogger agrees with me that we're only seeking to turn back the clock to 1750.

I particularly like the policy which is estimated to cost £240billion. Talk about magic money trees.

It is certainly a policy that has been gaining more currency over time.

http://www.citizensincome.org/

Needing one (or wanting one), and affording one, are two different things entirely!

Obviously, but the proponents of the policy have thought about it far more deeply and understand it far better than the journalists / bloggers who have been attempting to dismiss it over the last day or two.

A Green Party candidate told me in 1992 that it would involve a basic rate of income tax of around 45%?

AndyJS said:

The Tories have finally pulled ahead decisively with Betfair's most seats markets:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416473

If you think the Conservatives are going to get most seats, far better to back them in seats like Nuneaton and Hastings & Rye, where you can back them at odds against to win, as I pointed out last week:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/reality-check-testing-betting-markets.html

MikeK said:

UKIP ‏@UKIP 21m21 minutes ago
UKIP's two MPs @DouglasCarswell & @MarkReckless today played a crucial role in ending public wind farm subsidies http://talkcarswell.com/home/the-case-for-wind-is-running-out-of-puff/2823 …

I think UKIP are wrong on wind farms and renewable energy. Hopefully they'll have a change of mind on the subject eventually.

antifrank said:

AndyJS said:

The Tories have finally pulled ahead decisively with Betfair's most seats markets:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416473

If you think the Conservatives are going to get most seats, far better to back them in seats like Nuneaton and Hastings & Rye, where you can back them at odds against to win, as I pointed out last week:

http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/reality-check-testing-betting-markets.html

Hmm. Merits a look, but it is quite possible for Con to be ahead on seats even while losing English seats, as long as SLAB gets slaughtered as above.

If the Tories have another lead in YouGov tonight, we could be on for "proper" crossover for the first time this week.

I'd be interested to know whether the swing in the Glasgow/Strathclyde area is higher than on the east coast. If so the SNP may clean up in Glasgow but fall short in Falkirk, Fife, Edinburgh, etc.

Easterross said:

Evening all and the first I saw of the STV poll was the STV News at 6pm. I have to say my gut reaction is that the SNP leads over Labour of around 20% are closer to the truth than the 10%.

However does that mean Scotland will see a Labour wipe-out, I am far from convinced. I think many of those 45-52% SNP voters will include the usual all mouth and don't vote fraternity. If the SNP can mobilise them as it did during the referendum then Labour is in deep shit. One third of its seats are in the areas which voted YES in September.

Local by-election on Friday in Brown's back yard.

http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/5218/elections-january-22nd-2015?page=1&scrollTo=211112

SeanT said:

Flightpath said:

SeanT said:

Don't understand the confusion here. If you're a Scot, and you want what's best for Scotland, and you want your vote to count, in the next Westminster parliament - which will thrash out the details of Devomax - you vote for the SNP. Your party might even - quite likely - hold the balance of power in its hands. Be the kingmakers in London.

It's that simple. A vote for sturgeon gives your nation and your MP and your vote maximum political impact in Westminster.

Holyrood in 2016 will be a very different affair, but the Nats are gonna storm it in 2015.

Why does voting for the SNP give you what's best for Scotland? Does the SNP have a monopoly on what's best for Scotland? Has the SNP govt been a glorious new age for Scotland? All hail the trams...

How would 40 SNP MPs benefit Scotland? How would that work?

Duh. Because it's very likely to be a close election, so Labour (and maybe Tories) will come seeking SNP help in forming a government, for which a high price will be extracted, benefiting Scots.

Also, the more Nat MPs you send to Westminster the more you say to Labour "You can no longer take us for granted" - meaning more attention will be paid to Scottish interests, and of course the more Nat MPs the louder the Nat voice, and the greater the fear in London of another referendum, unless Devomax is truly generous

etc etc etc etc

Was that too hard to work out on your own?

Duh...?? How does that actually help Scotland? How does behaving like a dictator to extract a high price for a particular region and its prejudices, help Scotland? We have already seen that an independent Scotland is a no no. So how does some block of Scottish votes help Scotland if it alienates the rest of the country?
In case you have been asleep for 40 years Scotland has devolution. Explain how if it now seeks to dictate to the English, never mind the poor helpless Welsh, this helps Scotland with oil at $45?

AndyJS said:

Labour's position collapsing with Betfair's overall majority market:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490

Good, on both counts. Managed to green out on Labour Majority very cheaply.

Now make a modest profit on a Con majority, and a monkey and a half on NOM.

Come on, Ed, demand a Judge-led inquiry into the inquiries.

FrancisUrquhart said:

I read that Bad Al is back helping Ed Miliband. I'm sure Ed said something about not going negative, yeah right.

With Campbell in for Labour and Crosby for Tories, going to a clean fight all the way to May.

Campbell in for Labour, and Chilcott kicked into touch. Interesting co-incidence.

OldKingCole said:

Edwardian said:

rottenborough said:

Greens on 20%, in 2nd place, amongst students according to new poll:

http://www.studentmoneysaver.co.uk/article/student-voting-survey-results-greens-2nd-largest-party/

And the Lib Dems on under 4%. How on Earth has Nick Clegg remained as party leader? He should have had the decency to resign immediately after the Euro elections.

The revolver's been decommissioned and Charlie Kennedy's drunk the whisky.

Otherwise ..........

...and because all the pretenders to the throne would like Clegg to take the full rap for this one.

rottenborough said:

OldKingCole said:

Edwardian said:

rottenborough said:

Greens on 20%, in 2nd place, amongst students according to new poll:

http://www.studentmoneysaver.co.uk/article/student-voting-survey-results-greens-2nd-largest-party/

And the Lib Dems on under 4%. How on Earth has Nick Clegg remained as party leader? He should have had the decency to resign immediately after the Euro elections.

The revolver's been decommissioned and Charlie Kennedy's drunk the whisky.

Otherwise ..........

...and because all the pretenders to the throne would like Clegg to take the full rap for this one.

Go argue with the truth!!!!

Jane Ellison looks and sounds like she's been photo copied from the New Labour playbook.

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

The response of the German political elite to the Pegida protests has been breathtakingly arrogant and dismissive IMO. A bit like the initial attitude to UKIP in this country.

The established political parties in most Western European countries are incredulous that the electorate should have the impertinence to vote for someone other than themselves.

The people have forfeited the Government's confidence, and can only regain it with redoubled effort.

Vince Cable's best mate Lord Oaksh*tt donates £300,000 to 30 Labour candidates and £300,000 to 15 Lib Dems and £10,000 to the Greens. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/former-lib-dem-lord-oakeshott-donates-300000-labour-candidates

Since Oaksh*tt does nothing without discussing this with his mate Vince.....

@dr_spyn
Fill the war chest, then stab the donors in the back?
;-)

Smarmeron said:

@dr_spyn
Fill the war chest, then stab the donors in the back?
;-)

Given that there is a smoking ban in public places, advertising ban, sport sponsorship ban, no sales to under 18s, high rates of duty, health education campaigns, health warnings on packets, covered up display cabinets, does Cameron really think that another measure is needed?

rottenborough said:

OldKingCole said:

The revolver's been decommissioned and Charlie Kennedy's drunk the whisky.

Otherwise ..........

...and because all the pretenders to the throne would like Clegg to take the full rap for this one.

Indeed, and cheap jibes about Charles Kennedy notwithstanding, Nick Clegg's position is analogous to that of Gordon Brown in 2010 and John Major in 1997 in that by giving the elctorate the chance to kick him personally in the ballot box (so to speak), he gives the Party a chance to rebuild and move on.

How and whether the Party is able to do that is another matter. I do think Clegg will go after the elction whatever happens and while Tim Farron is favourite to take over, it's not a one-horse race. I do wonder whether Tom Brake may be a viable option.

I detect no appetite within the Party for a continuation of Coalition - it's been a salient lesson about getting what you wish for.

Cameron really think that another measure is needed?

Nanny knows best

stodge said:

rottenborough said:

OldKingCole said:

The revolver's been decommissioned and Charlie Kennedy's drunk the whisky.

Otherwise ..........

...and because all the pretenders to the throne would like Clegg to take the full rap for this one.

Indeed, and cheap jibes about Charles Kennedy notwithstanding, Nick Clegg's position is analogous to that of Gordon Brown in 2010 and John Major in 1997 in that by giving the elctorate the chance to kick him personally in the ballot box (so to speak), he gives the Party a chance to rebuild and move on.

How and whether the Party is able to do that is another matter. I do think Clegg will go after the elction whatever happens and while Tim Farron is favourite to take over, it's not a one-horse race. I do wonder whether Tom Brake may be a viable option.

I detect no appetite within the Party for a continuation of Coalition - it's been a salient lesson about getting what you wish for.

Ouch, Mr Stodge.

As a (former?????) LD voter (and sometime Lib activist) I thought Kennedy did a good job, and perchance could still do so!

I do wish, though, that the LD management wouldn't give the impression of marching resolutely and bravely towards the guns, come what may. I know Jo Grimond said that "when in doubt, march towards the sound of gunfire", but this is getting ridiculous.

@dr_spyn
I am not sure, but it would have went through anytime this parliament on more or less a nod (there would have been a few dissenting voices of course)
Why now? Cameron will say that it was intentional as being an uncontentious issue it could be left to later.
By happy coincidence, it also kept the tobacco companies "onside" till it was too late.
(the same happy coincedence that avoided proper financial scrutiny of the academies budget)

edit:- free schools, the ONS are not impressed.

Sean_F said:

maaarsh said:

Jane Ellison looks and sounds like she's been photo copied from the New Labour playbook.

So many of the government do.

She looked positively flushed announcing this latest triumph of the Tory civil liberties agenda.

Regarding Wales, you are forgetting about the UKIP factor. In the ITV Wales poll UKIP were on I think 20%. Now bearing in mind that they are weak in areas like Gwynedd and Ceredigion then they must be doing better in other parts of Wales. In the Euros, UKIP topped the poll in Conwy, Flintshire, Denbighshire, Wrexham, Powys and the Vale of Glamorgan (and came a close second in Newport and Pembrokeshire)

I don't expect UKIP to win any seats but they could lead to some surprise results for other parties. One I have been keeping my eye on is Vale of Clwyd. This consists of Rhyl and Prestatyn on the coast and Denbigh and some rural bits inland. Last time Lab had 15k votes to Con's 12.5k. Now Rhyl definitely looks to me like the sort of place where I would expect UKIP to do well. If they hurt Labour more in Rhyl than they do the Tories in the inland wards then maybe Cons could have a surprise gain against the trend.

The SNP's record on Health spending and it's "rationale" for voting on English matters:

Whether or not the New Labour government made a mistake by expanding private provision in the NHS, it did so at the same time as it dramatically increased public funding. As for the alleged link back to Scottish health spending, while total block grants from Whitehall are indeed connected to overall English public service spending, Holyrood has sweeping autonomy over where the money goes. How has this autonomy been used? To institute rather less protection for health within the overall budget than has been provided in England.

The whole argument about health, then, is a flimsy pretext for signalling the SNP’s willingness – eagerness even – to get stuck in to the parliamentary powerplay that will follow the indecisive election that’s now widely predicted for May......

Even if the result is less dramatic, there is every chance that the SNP is about to acquire unprecedented clout over London. This week it has signalled that whatever leverage it can grab, will be deployed ruthlessly

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/21/guardian-view-snp-westminster-nicola-sturgeon-flexes-muscles