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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI phone poll has SNP with 28% lead in Scotland

SystemSystem Posts: 12,214
edited January 2015 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI phone poll has SNP with 28% lead in Scotland

How STV is reporting its latest @IpsosMORI Scotland poll. http://t.co/yRmR2tpR5k pic.twitter.com/AlUAwPt6bs

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Scottish votes for English NHS spending to fall to Scottish levels - is that what Nicola meant?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Fortress Kirkcaldy !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Is Westmoorland now a safer seat than Orkney & Shetland ^_^:;;;;;;;;;;; ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_general_election,_2011

    This is how Scotland will look after GE2015 I think
  • Tories ahead in some polls, Greens surging and Scotland likely to give Labour the dockside hooker treatment, no wonder Dave was so confident and Ed so crap at PMQs.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The pro Indys got the best of both worlds by the look of it.. good luck to them
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Fortress Kirkcaldy !

    If 55 other seats go then Kirkcaldy goes. It has an artificially high Labour majority from last time.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    I note PMQs coverage is the most read thing on bbc website. Is this usual, or sign of awakening interest?
  • FPT

    HenryGManson said:
    O/T Betting tip for Australian Open tennis in the early hours. ISNER to beat Andreas Haider-Maurer 3-0 in sets. This is evens with StanJames.com and looks very likely. ISNER has a huge serve and the fast service will make it hard for him to be broken by Haider-Maurer. In his 1st round match ISNER struck 31 aces with 3 double faults. He was winning 88% of first serves and got a pretty decent number of first serves in too (69%) for a big server. ISNER wasn't broken. His opponent tonight/tomorrow hit 7 aces and 7 double faults and was broken on 3 occasions having faced 8 break points. I can't see any of the sets getting to tiebreaks, but even if they did ISNER has the experience and firepower to see them out. I'm confident there will be a 3-0 win, which I'd say is a 80-85% likelihood rather than 50% which evens implies.


    Thanks Henry, this looks like a cracking bet and I'm on with Stan at evens as you suggested. Incidentally his odds are way ahead of the rest of the field ..... always a good indicator of value.

    I wonder what proportion of today's PB.com audience is aware of just how good you are with your tennis tips. I would estimate that the readership of the blog has changed by 50% or more since you were last really active 2 or 3 years ago. I enjoy betting on tennis, a truer test of form and ability in my view than most other sports and without that pesky third result of a draw which one has to deal with in the case of football, etc.
  • In 1997 the Tories lost 12 Scottish MPs, in 2015 Labour are on course to lose three times as many.

    Wowsers
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_general_election,_2011

    This is how Scotland will look after GE2015 I think

    That's a very sensible starting point. Though I think antifrank's methodology, taking into account Yes %, is pretty sound too.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,624

    Pulpstar said:

    I reckon the equations for next Gov't are:

    Con + DUP + UKIP >/ 326 = Con Minority
    Con + LD >/ 326 = Continuation of the coalition

    Lab + LD >/ 326 = Lib-Lab or minority (No idea which, on both)
    Lab + SNP >/ 326 = Lab Minority (Probably) or Lab-SNP Coalition (Smaller chance)

    Combinations of Lab & UKIP >/ 326 or more likely Con + SNP >/ 326 will NOT form those Governments. Quite sure of that - those two bring in a 2nd election I think.

    But to get a second election you need to overturn the Fixed Term parliament act or the processes it lays down. For that a majority is required. Other parties should not be counted upon to help.

    Also remember that the Tories need to be 11.4% ahead in England before they stop losing seats to LAB.
    I don't think that's right. You would have a second general election if, say, PM Cameron lost a confidence motion and Miliband wasn't able to put together a coalition to win one within 14 days. Isn't that how it would work?
    That is exactly how it would work.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Sir John Chilcot @JohnnyChilcot
    Totally addicted to the World Indoor Bowls Championship on BBC2, just watch one more end then back to work
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Pulpstar said:

    Fortress Kirkcaldy !

    If 55 other seats go then Kirkcaldy goes. It has an artificially high Labour majority from last time.
    Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshil the only safe Labour seat in Scotland right now ?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,046
    FPT

    The Kipper line is that Cam won't get concessions at any time and certainly not by the IN/OUT referendum and so will lie to the electorate.

    Only Kippers apparently will be able to see through this dastardly strategy and understand the true state of play. The rest of the voting public will swallow the lies and vote accordingly IN.

    It is the Kipper intention to have a Lab govt, Owen or Jacob in charge by 2020 and have a Cons party campaigning strongly for OUT.

    It is coherent. But relies on a daunting decision tree. Plus it's a dead end on PB as a topic (TSE pls note although it would be fun) because no one can argue coherently that someone will or won't do something in future.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Plato said:

    Sir John Chilcot @JohnnyChilcot
    Totally addicted to the World Indoor Bowls Championship on BBC2, just watch one more end then back to work

    That would be funny if he hadnt already finished his report.

  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Just watched the PMQ;s ..Why do Labour bother to turn up if every question they ask is booted out of the house..a bit of research by them would not go amiss..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Mr. Putney, unless the stats page returns in some form on Betfair I'll likely not offer tennis tips again. Its removal is as displeasing as it is perplexing.

    Agree entirely on Mr. Manson's expertise in the area.

    As for draws - none of that nonsense in F1.

    F1: William release image of their new car:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30915475

    Looks alright, but the front wing should be white.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Wowsers

    Yes but what, if any, is the implication for England?

    How will English voters view a horde of strident scots who don't want to be a part of a union pitching over the border?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited January 2015
    One thing - whilst Scotland may well harm Labour's chances of most seats, as the SNP will be taking Lib Dem seats (Moped for Carmichael), it does less to his chances of becoming PM as the SNP won't work with the Conservatives.

    If Labour + SNP >/ 323 or so, they'll do a deal - and if that is Labour 275, SNP 50 then Dave having 285 seats say won't matter a jot.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    My tip is Edinburgh North & Leith 4/1

    Far, far too long in my view.

    Labour hold the Scottish Parliament seat though...

    I'm on this one at 12-1 for a fiver - anyway you pays yer money...
    The Westminster and Scottish Parliament Boundaries are pretty different, I'm in SCot Parl North & Leith Constituency but Edinburgh East Westminster constituency. There's a massive chunk of people who'll be in Edinburgh Central (SNP) for Scot Par but N&L for Westminster. There's also a small chunk of Edinburgh Western (SNP) in Westminster North & Leith.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited January 2015
    When one looks at the SNP lead in the polls and especially the map of how things may look in three and a half months' time, it makes one wonder how the No vote won so comfortably just 4 months ago.

    It's as if the Scots now realise that they made a monumental error of judgement and are hell bent on correcting this in double quick time.

    I feel certain that such an outcome in the GE as the polls are suggesting would inevitably lead to a further demand for independence and that this is likely to be ceded within the course of the next Parliament, whoever is in power at Westminster, supported by the English who are tired of having to financially support their neighbour with a whole raft of goodies which they themselves don't enjoy.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Also, from the previous thread, list of Scottish seats in Ladbrokes odd order, don't know how useful people will find this but I already had it

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rqAW2ParMduXRHKw79bB8S_Dz5Vr1iRwAfLDdr2awPo/edit#gid=0
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    FPT
    Ishmael_X said:

    I note PMQs coverage is the most read thing on bbc website. Is this usual, or sign of awakening interest?

    It's like those youtube clips of a skateboarder crashing into a lamp post. They're watched by millions as there is something intrinsically funny about such acts. Today's PMQ (which I've just finished watching) was the political analogue of a faceplant.

    Like this, but with more MPs.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    When one looks at the SNP lead in the polls and especially the map of how things may look in three and a half months' time, it makes one wonder how the No vote won so comfortably just 4 months ago.

    Because it didn't win comfortably. The margin was 5.3% from the resoution passing, not tiny but not "comfortable".
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Neil said:

    Plato said:

    Sir John Chilcot @JohnnyChilcot
    Totally addicted to the World Indoor Bowls Championship on BBC2, just watch one more end then back to work

    That would be funny if he hadnt already finished his report.

    His report is finished when it's published.

  • isam said:

    The pro Indys got the best of both worlds by the look of it.. good luck to them

    Bettertogether were true to their word.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Mr. Taffys, the Conservatives should hammer this point home.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    When one looks at the SNP lead in the polls and especially the map of how things may look in three and a half months' time, it makes one wonder how the No vote won so comfortably just 4 months ago.

    It's as if the Scots now realise that they made a monumental error of judgement and are hell bent on correcting this in double quick time.

    I feel certain that such an outcome in the GE as the polls are suggesting would inevitably lead to a further demand for independence and that this is likely to be ceded within the course of the next Parliament, whoever is in power at Westminster, supported by the English who are tired of having to financially support their neighbour with a whole raft of goodies which they themselves don't enjoy.

    Alternatively, the Scots are now free to vote for the SNP, who will presumably get the best deal possible for Scotland, without worrying that that means independence within 10 years.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    My tip is Edinburgh North & Leith 4/1

    Far, far too long in my view.

    Labour hold the Scottish Parliament seat though...

    I'm on this one at 12-1 for a fiver - anyway you pays yer money...
    The Westminster and Scottish Parliament Boundaries are pretty different, I'm in SCot Parl North & Leith Constituency but Edinburgh East Westminster constituency. There's a massive chunk of people who'll be in Edinburgh Central (SNP) for Scot Par but N&L for Westminster. There's also a small chunk of Edinburgh Western (SNP) in Westminster North & Leith.
    Damn, didn't know that - they're into 2-1 anyway.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Fortress Kirkcaldy !

    If 55 other seats go then Kirkcaldy goes. It has an artificially high Labour majority from last time.
    Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshil the only safe Labour seat in Scotland right now ?
    Rutherglen & Hamilton West I'd say.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited January 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    My tip is Edinburgh North & Leith 4/1

    Far, far too long in my view.

    Labour hold the Scottish Parliament seat though...

    I'm on this one at 12-1 for a fiver - anyway you pays yer money...
    The Westminster and Scottish Parliament Boundaries are pretty different, I'm in SCot Parl North & Leith Constituency but Edinburgh East Westminster constituency. There's a massive chunk of people who'll be in Edinburgh Central (SNP) for Scot Par but N&L for Westminster. There's also a small chunk of Edinburgh Western (SNP) in Westminster North & Leith.
    Damn, didn't know that - they're into 2-1 anyway.
    @Pulpstar

    Whilst occasionally slow this is a very useful site for comparing Scottish Cons with Westminster Cons
    http://www.ordnancesurvey.co.uk/election-maps/gb/

    Could be quite important given how the Glasgow seats get split.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited January 2015
    Alistair said:

    When one looks at the SNP lead in the polls and especially the map of how things may look in three and a half months' time, it makes one wonder how the No vote won so comfortably just 4 months ago.

    Because it didn't win comfortably. The margin was 5.3% from the resoution passing, not tiny but not "comfortable".
    Also, the GE reflects "who I think will look after my interests". Labour cosying up to the Tories during the referendum hurt them badly, maybe irrevocably in those stakes. It's further exacerbated by Ed Miliband being as far from a working class Scot as it's possible to get without being a member of the Bilderberg Group.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited January 2015
    Ishmael_X said:

    O/T

    Ishmail - just trying to be helpful, I thought I'd mention that I've invested most of my winnings from last night on HenryG's tennis tip downthread..... he's good, very good but DYOR.

    Good luck should you follow us both in.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Mr. Taffys, the Conservatives should hammer this point home.

    If Labour gets crushed in Scotland, I don;t see how they can prosper in England
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Mr. Taffys, UKIP could be Labour's saving grace on election night. The Lib Dems perhaps likewise.

    Still a wide range of entirely plausible electoral results. And it's less than a week to the Greek election, which could have interesting consequences.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    O/T

    Ishmail - just trying to be helpful, I thought I'd mention that I've invested most of my winnings from last night on HenryG's tennis tip downthread..... he's good, very good but DYOR.

    Good luck should you follow us both in.
    Thanks, noted

    btw following your remarks on relative betting merit of sports, why are football bets typically limited to results within the 90 minutes?

  • The Indyref polls overstated Yes, these recent polls may well have overstated the SNP.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341

    When one looks at the SNP lead in the polls and especially the map of how things may look in three and a half months' time, it makes one wonder how the No vote won so comfortably just 4 months ago.

    It's as if the Scots now realise that they made a monumental error of judgement and are hell bent on correcting this in double quick time.

    I feel certain that such an outcome in the GE as the polls are suggesting would inevitably lead to a further demand for independence and that this is likely to be ceded within the course of the next Parliament, whoever is in power at Westminster, supported by the English who are tired of having to financially support their neighbour with a whole raft of goodies which they themselves don't enjoy.

    Alternatively, the Scots are now free to vote for the SNP, who will presumably get the best deal possible for Scotland, without worrying that that means independence within 10 years.
    More likely to be a significant chunk of the No vote realising that the devo-max promise wasn't worth the newsprint it was printed on, and the electrons wasted in broadcasting it.

    In any case, it is well established that indy is by plebiscite - which is another matter entirely. It's foolish and mendacious to claim that a SNP majority automatically means independence - what it should mean is the choice to be independent or not, and as good Tories (or their best chums, in the case of SLAB and the LDs) the Unionists ought to be pro-choice. Instead, the Unionist strategy of simply banning referenda by any means possible is looking more and more antidemocratic as time goes on.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341
    Anorak said:

    Alistair said:

    When one looks at the SNP lead in the polls and especially the map of how things may look in three and a half months' time, it makes one wonder how the No vote won so comfortably just 4 months ago.

    Because it didn't win comfortably. The margin was 5.3% from the resoution passing, not tiny but not "comfortable".
    Also, the GE reflects "who I think will look after my interests". Labour cosying up to the Tories during the referendum hurt them badly, maybe irrevocably in those stakes. It's further exacerbated by Ed Miliband being as far from a working class Scot as it's possible to get without being a member of the Bilderberg Group.
    And Mr Murphy too, arguably, at least politically (but not by origin, of course).

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Anorak said:

    Alistair said:

    When one looks at the SNP lead in the polls and especially the map of how things may look in three and a half months' time, it makes one wonder how the No vote won so comfortably just 4 months ago.

    Because it didn't win comfortably. The margin was 5.3% from the resoution passing, not tiny but not "comfortable".
    Also, the GE reflects "who I think will look after my interests". Labour cosying up to the Tories during the referendum hurt them badly, maybe irrevocably in those stakes. It's further exacerbated by Ed Miliband being as far from a working class Scot as it's possible to get without being a member of the Bilderberg Group.
    I believe that Ed Balls attends the Bilderberg Group meetings.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MORI does not seem very credible with such extreme data. Figures were similar last month
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341

    The Indyref polls overstated Yes, these recent polls may well have overstated the SNP.

    As a matter pf interest, how does Mr H know that the interviewers were Scots?

  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited January 2015

    The Indyref polls overstated Yes, these recent polls may well have overstated the SNP.

    Ipsos Mori underestimated Labour's lead over the SNP by 12% before the 2010 election.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2015

    Alternatively, the Scots are now free to vote for the SNP, who will presumably get the best deal possible for Scotland, without worrying that that means independence within 10 years.
    This ^


    Also, the GE reflects "who I think will look after my interests". Labour cosying up to the Tories during the referendum hurt them badly, maybe irrevocably in those stakes. It's further exacerbated by Ed Miliband being as far from a working class Scot as it's possible to get without being a member of the Bilderberg Group.

    And this ^

    It's notable that the smart punters on here are all knee deep in SNP constituency bets, while the non punters waffle on about oil.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The Indyref polls overstated Yes, these recent polls may well have overstated the SNP.

    I'm mentally taking a 5 point swing off the polls. That still leaves this poll as an 18 point lead for the SNP.

    If you assume the YES=SNP/Green votes then that gives a 13 point lead to the SNP.

    If you go for a weighted thing where SNP/Green = 80% Yes Vote and 11% NO Vote then that gives the SNP a 10 point lead.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Anorak said:

    Alistair said:

    When one looks at the SNP lead in the polls and especially the map of how things may look in three and a half months' time, it makes one wonder how the No vote won so comfortably just 4 months ago.

    Because it didn't win comfortably. The margin was 5.3% from the resoution passing, not tiny but not "comfortable".
    Also, the GE reflects "who I think will look after my interests". Labour cosying up to the Tories during the referendum hurt them badly, maybe irrevocably in those stakes. It's further exacerbated by Ed Miliband being as far from a working class Scot as it's possible to get without being a member of the Bilderberg Group.
    I believe that Ed Balls attends the Bilderberg Group meetings.
    As I understand it, he makes the tea, then functions as a footstool.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2015

    The Indyref polls overstated Yes, these recent polls may well have overstated the SNP.

    It's just as likely they have understated the SNP.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Canaries were only made redundant in the 80s...
    1986: Coal mine canaries made redundant - BBC News
    news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/december/30/.../2547587.stm
    More than 200 canary birds are to be phased out of Britain's mining pits and replaced by hand-held gas detectors.
    taffys said:
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited January 2015
    Ishmael_X said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    O/T

    Ishmail - just trying to be helpful, I thought I'd mention that I've invested most of my winnings from last night on HenryG's tennis tip downthread..... he's good, very good but DYOR.

    Good luck should you follow us both in.
    Thanks, noted

    btw following your remarks on relative betting merit of sports, why are football bets typically limited to results within the 90 minutes?

    When you refer to "90 minutes", this of course includes any added time for injuries, etc, before "extra time" is played in the case of Cup competitions. The bookies would probably argue that "extra time" and especially a penalty shoot out if required, turns the game into far more of a lottery and therefore a fairer result is one based on the score at the end of normal time.
    We punters, however, would tend to take a rather different view. A relatively low percentage of bets on a game are placed on it ending in a draw, and therefore by determining the result as such at the end of standard time, this must significantly improve the bookies' margins.

    It is possible of course to limit the outcome of a football match to just two possible outcomes by using the so-called asian handicap markets or by betting "double chance", i.e. on one or other side + the draw.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    Pong said:

    The Indyref polls overstated Yes, these recent polls may well have overstated the SNP.

    It's just as likely they have understated the SNP.
    Even if they've overstated them by a whopping 5%, they're a country mile ahead of Labour. As Mike hints, that 5% 'error' would more likely flow back to the Tories, LDs or (even) Kippers than benefit the red team.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536

    Tories ahead in some polls, Greens surging and Scotland likely to give Labour the dockside hooker treatment, no wonder Dave was so confident and Ed so crap at PMQs.

    This would be the Conservatives' best Scottish performance, relative to Labour, since 1959.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Is it beyond the bounds of possibility that tory labour libs in Scotland morphed into 'unionist??'
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    edited January 2015
    Why is that Scotland is so hard to poll? I think Alistair made a very good point that the confusion that arises about past voting intent when we have elections to the Scottish Parliament as well UK elections is at least a part of the problem and the emphasis put on past voting varying between different pollsters results in these absurd spreads. The problem has previously been that there have been different voting patterns for each type of election as well.

    The proposition behind Ipsos Mori is that this distinction is going to melt away and the traditional Scottish anti tory/pro Labour block is going to dissolve almost completely. In other circumstances I would say that is simply absurd but the combination of the aftershocks of the referendum and the uselessness of Miliband make this a possible outcome.

    Possible, but surely not likely, at least not yet. My guess, FWIW, is that the SNP will scoop up a number of Lib Dem seats relatively easily. I find anyone backing anyone other than the SNP in Argyll, for example, quite bizarre. I fear some of the Tory hopes such as Kincardine might go the same way.

    I also think they will pick off some of the easier Labour targets in places like Edinburgh where the Unionist vote is more split. And I think they will do well in Yes voting areas like Dundee and greater Glasgow despite the scale of the majorities to be overcome. But adding all this together with the 6 seats they already hold I struggle to believe that the SNP will end up with more than 25 seats. Maybe I just don't have enough imagination.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited January 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing - whilst Scotland may well harm Labour's chances of most seats, as the SNP will be taking Lib Dem seats (Moped for Carmichael), it does less to his chances of becoming PM as the SNP won't work with the Conservatives.

    If Labour + SNP >/ 323 or so, they'll do a deal - and if that is Labour 275, SNP 50 then Dave having 285 seats say won't matter a jot.

    Dave is the sitting PM, he gets first go at forming a government, so he offers the SNP DevoMaxPlusPlus in exchange for supporting EV4EL. He then runs a minority administration with whoever he can cobble together. Even if he subsequently loses and an election is called, Labour are not going to repeal EV4EL. But with EV4EL he will have a majority for most legislation as long as he is a bit careful.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Plato...did you get my e-mail address..
  • With the fall in oil price, independence is truly dead in Scotland and the Scot Nats know it. The main issue in Scotland is that we have had 8 years of local government focussed only on the referendum. The country across the board is behind England. Education which used to be good is dire. NHS figures are bad but kept quiet unlike in England. Business formation is low and the oil sector is in recession. On top of this we all know that further austerity is coming. The Scots are hurting and feeling unloved. In such a situation the Westminster Tory / Labour fight seems like a sideshow.

    My feeling is that more than ever the Scots votes are floaters. They will wait to see what solutions are offered by the parties for them. Saying SNP in an opinion poll does make sure that the Scots are not ignored whether that will lead to SNP votes is not yet certain.


  • JamesMoJamesMo Posts: 35
    taffys said:

    Is it beyond the bounds of possibility that tory labour libs in Scotland morphed into 'unionist??'

    That's what happened to the Tories and Liberals in Ireland circa 1890.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal_Unionist_Party
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    Where is the Glasgow East by-election Downfall video from 2008?

    That may need to be updated again.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    One thing - whilst Scotland may well harm Labour's chances of most seats, as the SNP will be taking Lib Dem seats (Moped for Carmichael), it does less to his chances of becoming PM as the SNP won't work with the Conservatives.

    If Labour + SNP >/ 323 or so, they'll do a deal - and if that is Labour 275, SNP 50 then Dave having 285 seats say won't matter a jot.

    Would Labour do a deal with the SNP in that scenario, where they are behind the Tories on seats in England?

    I would have thought that there would be a number of English Labour MPs who would be nervous about doing such a deal. When the numbers are that tight it only needs a very small number to speak out and such a proposed deal would be dead in the water.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536

    Why do the Scots not warm to Ed Milliband?
  • From Oldnat on UKPR:

    Ipsos-MORI poll

    Net satisfaction ratings

    Sturgeon +49
    Harvie +21
    Swinney +16
    Murphy -4 (but see below)
    Davidson -8
    Rennie -17

    Cameron -40
    Miliband -45
    Clegg -50

    With Murphy new LiS leader more/less likely to vote Lab –
    More 20 : Less -28

    Time for a few more wizard wheezes, Jim.
    Old Firm matches every other weekend, baronetcies for all the surviving Lisbon Lions, Irn Bru on free prescription, tatoo a saltire on yer pus?
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    hamiltonace

    "With the fall in oil price, independence is truly dead in Scotland and the Scot Nats know it"

    I assume you are not Lord George Robertson or I would claim my £10 :-)

    Why oh why do people who have-correctly-claimed that the price of oil is volatile now concluded that it is down and staying down.

    Off the top of my head I recall that the price ranged between $10 and $150 since 1999.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Does anyone have the Scottish Con, Scots Lab and Scots Lib Dem membership numbers handy.

    Comparing those (It is staggering that the SNP membership makes it look like a UK wide party and is on the same scales as the rest) will show why this surge is real.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited January 2015
    Nope - try me again using Vanilla. If that fails - you can DM on Twitter at @‌PlatoSays

    I want to read your stuff.

    Plato...did you get my e-mail address..

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing - whilst Scotland may well harm Labour's chances of most seats, as the SNP will be taking Lib Dem seats (Moped for Carmichael), it does less to his chances of becoming PM as the SNP won't work with the Conservatives.

    If Labour + SNP >/ 323 or so, they'll do a deal - and if that is Labour 275, SNP 50 then Dave having 285 seats say won't matter a jot.

    Would Labour do a deal with the SNP in that scenario, where they are behind the Tories on seats in England?

    I would have thought that there would be a number of English Labour MPs who would be nervous about doing such a deal. When the numbers are that tight it only needs a very small number to speak out and such a proposed deal would be dead in the water.
    They may well have reservations, but the alternative is 5 more Conservative years... and I reckon Salmond quite fancies a ministerial car - Labour/SNP coalition is the Scots's preferred option, even though constitutionally it is an abomination.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536
    Pulpstar said:

    Does anyone have the Scottish Con, Scots Lab and Scots Lib Dem membership numbers handy.

    Comparing those (It is staggering that the SNP membership makes it look like a UK wide party and is on the same scales as the rest) will show why this surge is real.

    I think it's about 10,000 for Labour. Probably in the low thousands for Conservatives and Lib Dems.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536
    If Labour were to suffer a real calamity in Scotland (say, losing 35 seats) it's possible they might end up with fewer seats overall than in 2010.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited January 2015
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does anyone have the Scottish Con, Scots Lab and Scots Lib Dem membership numbers handy.

    Comparing those (It is staggering that the SNP membership makes it look like a UK wide party and is on the same scales as the rest) will show why this surge is real.

    I think it's about 10,000 for Labour. Probably in the low thousands for Conservatives and Lib Dems.
    And 90,000 for the SNP. That's alot of potential "ground game"
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    Why is that Scotland is so hard to poll? I think Alistair made a very good point that the confusion that arises about past voting intent when we have elections to the Scottish Parliament as well UK elections is at least a part of the problem and the emphasis put on past voting varying between different pollsters results in these absurd spreads. The problem has previously been that there have been different voting patterns for each type of election as

    IndyRef recall should have put paid to this problem but, in a move that I cannot fathom, not all pollsters are weighing by IndyRef vote
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Does anyone have the Scottish Con, Scots Lab and Scots Lib Dem membership numbers handy.

    Comparing those (It is staggering that the SNP membership makes it look like a UK wide party and is on the same scales as the rest) will show why this surge is real.

    I think it's about 10,000 for Labour. Probably in the low thousands for Conservatives and Lib Dems.
    And 90,000 for the SNP. That's alot of potential "ground game"
    By the election the Scottish Greens will probably have as many members as Scottish Labour.
  • dobbindobbin Posts: 28
    Was there not a parish council byelection in a hamlet deep in the Scootish Borders last week in which the SNP vote dropped by 0.7% thus exposing the MORI and Survation polls for the manifest nonsense they are?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    dobbin said:

    Was there not a parish council byelection in a hamlet deep in the Scootish Borders last week in which the SNP vote dropped by 0.7% thus exposing the MORI and Survation polls for the manifest nonsense they are?

    I cant say I've noticed any election results from Scotland since the 'yes' side failed to win independence in September.

  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,989
    Afternoon all :)

    IF the SNP do sweep Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon's position in 2015 will be analogous to Nick Clegg's in 2010 in terms of the approximate number of MPs. As to her influence, that will depend on the state of the duopoly in England and Wales.

    Assuming neither Conservative nor Labour wins an overall majority in England and Wales alone, we are left with the SNP as "kingmaker". I suspect Sturgeon, acutely aware of Clegg's experience since 2010, will eschew Coalition of any form and may even be tempted to eschew S&C. In effect, Nicola will have both Dave and Ed by the proverbials and that's for those of you who think repetitive use of "pounded like a dockside hooker" counts as viable and useful analysis.

    I wonder if the SNP line would be "everything short of indepndence" - a bit like John Redmond's Home Rule in 1910. In essence, Scotland would be indpendent without being independent - it would have all the fiscal security of being part of the UK but would enjoy virtual carte blanche in terms of Governance (including tax raising powers).

    Could Cameron and Miliband, having seen their Scottish support eradicated, sell that to their troops in exchange for power at Westminster ?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Incidentally, there are 533 seats in England, so 267 are needed for an English majority. The Conservatives won 298 to Labour's 191 at the 2010 GE.

    Assuming ~10 Tory gains from the Liberal Democrats in England, it means that the Tories would need to lose ~40 English seats to UKIP and Labour to lose their notional English majority. Indeed, the current betting spreads, if you assume no net Tory gains in Wales and Scotland, imply a continuing Tory majority in England.

    I think it would be one thing for Scottish Labour MPs in a UK Parliament voting to override a notional English Tory majority, but quite another for Labour to do a deal with SNP MPs to do the same. It is tempting to draw parallels between the Scottish experience of the Poll Tax and the proposed "Mansion" Tax. The electoral consequence for Labour in England could be dire.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,151
    edited January 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Does anyone have the Scottish Con, Scots Lab and Scots Lib Dem membership numbers handy.

    Comparing those (It is staggering that the SNP membership makes it look like a UK wide party and is on the same scales as the rest) will show why this surge is real.

    SLab is a mystery, could be anything from 5k to 14K (SLab's figure, given without any supporting evidence), Scottish Greens c.8k, SCons (given in 2012, also without supporting evidence) c.12k, SLDs c.3k, SNP c.94k.

    Oh, and not forgetting SSP, 3.5k.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Mr. Stodge, and could they sell it to the English without an English Parliament?

    It's a short-term recipe for the destruction of the UK without equality for England.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Are people now saying 'SNP' as a protest vote comfortable in the knowledge that it is impossible for it to lead to independence since
    a - the referendum said NO
    and
    b - the oil price says NO

    Plus of course they are comfortable that the SNP will not be governing nationally and thus it matters not a hoot as to what its policies are.

    We must bare in mind that devolution was hatched by Labour - the exact same labour party that came to power and ruined the UK economy (again). Devolution seems to have shafted Labour instead of protecting it. We should remember this track record when we speculate on the likely effectiveness of its current policies.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited January 2015
    I would have thought that there would be a number of English Labour MPs who would be nervous about doing such a deal.

    Such a deal would cause an explosion of rancour in parliament and the country and could well do for labour for good.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited January 2015

    Pulpstar said:

    Does anyone have the Scottish Con, Scots Lab and Scots Lib Dem membership numbers handy.

    Comparing those (It is staggering that the SNP membership makes it look like a UK wide party and is on the same scales as the rest) will show why this surge is real.

    SLab is a mystery, could be anything from 5k to 14K (SLab's figure, given without any supporting evidence), Scottish Greens c.8k, SCons (given in 2012, also without supporting evidence) c.12k, SLDs c.3k, SNP c.94k.
    So basically the SNP has between double and triple (and much closer to triple) the number of members than the rest do when combined. Wow.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Mr. Anorak, wow indeed. The number of renewals will be interesting to see.
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    The figures appear to be:

    SNP 52% (-)

    Lab 24% (+1)

    Come on folks, just like Mr Smithson has been pointing out for days now, there is clear evidence of increasing support for SLAB :-)





  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,016
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Why is that Scotland is so hard to poll? I think Alistair made a very good point that the confusion that arises about past voting intent when we have elections to the Scottish Parliament as well UK elections is at least a part of the problem and the emphasis put on past voting varying between different pollsters results in these absurd spreads. The problem has previously been that there have been different voting patterns for each type of election as

    IndyRef recall should have put paid to this problem but, in a move that I cannot fathom, not all pollsters are weighing by IndyRef vote
    How do you weight for the Indyref vote? I think it is seriously problematic. There were no parties and there was exceptional turnout, something unlikely to be repeated (although I would not be surprised if voting was up in Scotland compared to 2010, voting is habit forming).

    My own thoughts is that the Yes result is a rough and ready indicator of SNP potential in an area but it is very rough. I came across quite a number of SNP voters who were voting no and of course even more Labour and Lib Dem supporters who were voting yes. Don't think I met a Yes tory but they presumably existed somewhere.

    I have suggested that where there are a number of Unionist parties in play, such as in Argyll or Inverness a strongish (40%+) vote for Yes is likely to be decisive. This just might prove to be the case in seats such as East Dumbartonshire where Labour ought to win and the SNP did really badly the last time although that is a big ask.

    Areas which were pretty strongly no such as Kincardine and Berwickshire should prove harder for the SNP but the split of the Unionist vote might again be decisive.

    One thing is for sure: the Scottish results will not be the snorefest of 2010.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    edited January 2015

    Incidentally, there are 533 seats in England, so 267 are needed for an English majority. The Conservatives won 298 to Labour's 191 at the 2010 GE.

    Assuming ~10 Tory gains from the Liberal Democrats in England, it means that the Tories would need to lose ~40 English seats to UKIP and Labour to lose their notional English majority. Indeed, the current betting spreads, if you assume no net Tory gains in Wales and Scotland, imply a continuing Tory majority in England.

    I think it would be one thing for Scottish Labour MPs in a UK Parliament voting to override a notional English Tory majority, but quite another for Labour to do a deal with SNP MPs to do the same. It is tempting to draw parallels between the Scottish experience of the Poll Tax and the proposed "Mansion" Tax. The electoral consequence for Labour in England could be dire.

    The electoral consequences of doing a deal with the Conservatives look to be dire for the Lib Dems. Labour being out of office for another 5 years will be dire for them. These are politicians, they'll do deals and two centre-left (Labour) and left (SNP) parties will do a deal if they need to.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,536
    JPJ2 said:

    The figures appear to be:

    SNP 52% (-)

    Lab 24% (+1)

    Come on folks, just like Mr Smithson has been pointing out for days now, there is clear evidence of increasing support for SLAB :-)

    The third poll in a row showing rising Labour support.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    DavidL said:

    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    Why is that Scotland is so hard to poll? I think Alistair made a very good point that the confusion that arises about past voting intent when we have elections to the Scottish Parliament as well UK elections is at least a part of the problem and the emphasis put on past voting varying between different pollsters results in these absurd spreads. The problem has previously been that there have been different voting patterns for each type of election as

    IndyRef recall should have put paid to this problem but, in a move that I cannot fathom, not all pollsters are weighing by IndyRef vote
    How do you weight for the Indyref vote? I think it is seriously problematic. There were no parties and there was exceptional turnout, something unlikely to be repeated (although I would not be surprised if voting was up in Scotland compared to 2010, voting is habit forming).

    My own thoughts is that the Yes result is a rough and ready indicator of SNP potential in an area but it is very rough. I came across quite a number of SNP voters who were voting no and of course even more Labour and Lib Dem supporters who were voting yes. Don't think I met a Yes tory but they presumably existed somewhere.

    I have suggested that where there are a number of Unionist parties in play, such as in Argyll or Inverness a strongish (40%+) vote for Yes is likely to be decisive. This just might prove to be the case in seats such as East Dumbartonshire where Labour ought to win and the SNP did really badly the last time although that is a big ask.

    Areas which were pretty strongly no such as Kincardine and Berwickshire should prove harder for the SNP but the split of the Unionist vote might again be decisive.

    One thing is for sure: the Scottish results will not be the snorefest of 2010.
    Wales is going to get the snorefest crown this time round.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    Mr. Anorak, wow indeed. The number of renewals will be interesting to see.

    A good point. Retention may be relatively poor once the patriotic fervour from the indyref dies back down. Still...
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited January 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One thing - whilst Scotland may well harm Labour's chances of most seats, as the SNP will be taking Lib Dem seats (Moped for Carmichael), it does less to his chances of becoming PM as the SNP won't work with the Conservatives.

    If Labour + SNP >/ 323 or so, they'll do a deal - and if that is Labour 275, SNP 50 then Dave having 285 seats say won't matter a jot.

    Would Labour do a deal with the SNP in that scenario, where they are behind the Tories on seats in England?

    I would have thought that there would be a number of English Labour MPs who would be nervous about doing such a deal. When the numbers are that tight it only needs a very small number to speak out and such a proposed deal would be dead in the water.
    They may well have reservations, but the alternative is 5 more Conservative years... and I reckon Salmond quite fancies a ministerial car - Labour/SNP coalition is the Scots's preferred option, even though constitutionally it is an abomination.
    Generally speaking I'm quite comfortable about sharing English/British sovereignty, and I wouldn't be averse to a properly constituted Federal Europe with European-wide parties, a proper Government in Brussels and a German** President, provided that there was a shared understanding that Europe's interests came before that of any individual European nation.

    I do think, though, that I would have very large problems about the SNP forming part of a UK Government - they're opposed to the continuation of the UK. They are only interested in protecting the interests of Scotland - so how could I tolerate their being involved in the Governance of the UK, and thereby England?

    To me this is very different to Scottish Labour MPs doing the same - as they are part of a British political party, and so I assume that they have the understanding of shared British interests coming before those of English or Scottish interests.

    I can see why the SNP would want to do this - provoking an English Nationalist response would guarantee Scottish independence. Would Labour really be that short-sighted, reckless and stupid?

    ** French, Dutch or wherever - Aussie, perhaps?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    One thing this SNP surge does do in Scotland is that it will make ~90% of the votes there actually mean something.

    Almost every seat is a marginal.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    I can see why the SNP would want to do this - provoking an English Nationalist response would guarantee Scottish independence. Would Labour really be that short-sighted, reckless and stupid?

    QTWTAIY
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I think we also forget that labour has 40 scotsmen, a significant chunk of their commons team.

    Chr8st knows what their morale must be like at a time when Ed needs all his troops on the attack.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    You can put those tin foil hats away.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-30917194
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited January 2015
    Mean of last 13 YG Scottish crossbreaks (sample 1940)
    SNP 41% : Lab 27% : Con 17% : LD 5% : UKIP 6% : Grn 4%] Somehow that seems much more likely!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Mr. Anorak, wow indeed. The number of renewals will be interesting to see.

    With the UK election this year and Scottish Election Next year there is something to keep recent joiners interested and focused.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited January 2015
    @Casino_Royale‌

    Glasgow East Downfall Part 1.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMi776jah1w

    And the second part.

    www.youtube.com/watch?v=I4n--IXg6HY

    The SNP have taken seats in Edinburgh South.

    Och, never mind, we're safe in Kirkcaldy.

    (Steiner)

    Mr Miliband - Gordon stood down, and the new candidate was hopeless. Kirkcaldy, Kirkcaldy is now...
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    dr_spyn said:

    You can put those tin foil hats away.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-30917194

    On the Bilderberg steering group (TRUE). Probably a lizard (NOT TRUE).
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Plato mail@avantiventures.com....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,962
    Mr. Alistair, indeed, and Miliband seems to be putting Labour's Scottish voters off as if he were laser-etched metal and they were water:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-30915266

    However, if Sturgeon gets her role (if she has one) in the horse-trading after the election wrong then that could see the tide go out more rapidly than anticipated.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,341

    [snipped]

    Generally speaking I'm quite comfortable about sharing English/British sovereignty, and I wouldn't be averse to a properly constituted Federal Europe with European-wide parties, a proper Government in Brussels and a German** President, provided that there was a shared understanding that Europe's interests came before that of any individual European nation.

    I do think, though, that I would have very large problems about the SNP forming part of a UK Government - they're opposed to the continuation of the UK. They are only interested in protecting the interests of Scotland - so how could I tolerate their being involved in the Governance of the UK, and thereby England?

    To me this is very different to Scottish Labour MPs doing the same - as they are part of a British political party, and so I assume that they have the understanding of shared British interests coming before those of English or Scottish interests.

    I can see why the SNP would want to do this - provoking an English Nationalist response would guarantee Scottish independence. Would Labour really be that short-sighted, reckless and stupid?

    ** French, Dutch or wherever - Aussie, perhaps?

    May I raise some thoughts? "Might", not "would" is perhaps a mre nuanced way to put it - whatever some newspapers like to say to frighten the lieges. As another poster said, coalition or even s&c is by no means a done deal. The LDs are a horrible warning, a skeleton swinging on the gibbet f politics. As another PBer said a day or two back, the Tories are already widely regarded as privileging some parts of Britain or more precisely of the UK over others. So there is a precedent, should you wish to take it ...

    And just because the SNP want independence doesn't mean they will get a referendum in the immediate future, so it is in the SNP interest, and that of its voters, to see proper government of the UK meantime. Remember, they have carefully decoupled voting SNP from voting for indy (which is one explanation why the anti-SNP parties are spending so much time spreading scare stories about a rerun). It will be very interesting to see how that issue develops: it's possible that any agreement could include clause promising not to have an indyref for n years.

    Finally, the other point I would make in response to your understandable enough comments is that the present situation hopelessly muddles the UK and England in terms of governance, so either that changes, e.g. by an English Parliament or, indeed, Scottish independence, or one accepts the ensuing anomalies. Tory rule over a non-Tory Scotland, for instance, is just such another anomaly (and oit's not equivalent to, say, Yorkshire, because it is a separate nation with an at least partly separate polity, as seen in the legal system, etc.).
This discussion has been closed.