However, if Sturgeon gets her role (if she has one) in the horse-trading after the election wrong then that could see the tide go out more rapidly than anticipated.
To be fair to the Scottish electorate, I think the wet drip Miliband should play the part of the water in that analogy.
[Also: tsk, tsk, mixed metaphors from such a distinguished writer]
"why the anti-SNP parties are spending so much time spreading scare stories about a rerun"
Are they doing that? Can't tell from down here. However, perhaps the London based parties should be encouraging another referendum and if necessary one to be held every six months until the Scots get to the correct answer. The Union is now irreparably broken and the sooner it is consigned to history the better for everyone.
It is for 'that tory' Carswell. The aptly named for UKIP, Councillor Colin (''How are my kids meant to get a job when our political class support open-door mass immigration'') Race, said all the expected Westminster Bubbly things for a kipper defector and the Labour party he left did the same - “On the day Nigel Farage confirmed his plans to privatise the NHS, people in Bishop Auckland will rightly be questioning the decision of one of their town councillors. “UKIP’s policies include another tax break for millionaires, higher taxes on working families, scrapping rights as at work and higher bankers’ bonuses. “They can’t be described as a party who will stand up for working people.''
Mr. Llama, perhaps. Worth noting the Roman Empire lasted another two centuries in the West after the Crisis of the Third Century, and another 12 in the East.
There are two things you need to know about Labour versus SNP: With a greater than 85% correlation people who support independence will vote SNP. That means it doesn't matter too much what else the SNP does, as far as winning votes is concerned, but in fact SNP policy is virtually identical to Scottish Labour, except for independence.
Labour is unable to adopt an effective differentiation strategy against the SNP. They can only hope to convince a part of the current support for independence that it's not worth it. As support for independence declines, so will the SNP vote. It's possible: support for independence has waxed and waned over the past thirty years and something similar happened in Quebec. But it won't happen in time for the May election and unlikely for next year's Holyrood election either.
"why the anti-SNP parties are spending so much time spreading scare stories about a rerun"
Are they doing that? Can't tell from down here. However, perhaps the London based parties should be encouraging another referendum and if necessary one to be held every six months until the Scots get to the correct answer. The Union is now irreparably broken and the sooner it is consigned to history the better for everyone.
Afternoon, Mr Llama. Perhaps I exaggerate slightly, but not much; it's the only rational explanation I can see of why some Scottish Tories etc feel bizarrely that they have to vote for Mr Miliband in order to save the Union, even though the election is not an indyref. "To prevent another referendum by stopping the SNP winning" is a pointless answer, as there would be a referendum anyway. If the public want it, they ought to have it (and lots of No voters wanted it), and to deny it outright is bad democracy. (And it would be insane for any party to call another one without a clear public demand.)
Also of the talk of an anti-SNP Grand Coalition (which would really kill off SLAB for ever).
And why the media continue to be obsessed with the issue of a second indyref even though it is very much the policy of the pro-indy side to see what the Unionists make of their claim to be better at ruling Scotland.
By insisting he isn't delaying the Chilcott report, he's reminding people all about Iraq, how tremendously trustworthy he is (ahem), and, I would suggest, a majority of people will now assume he *is* delaying the report's release.
Mr Stodge - you say ''Could Cameron and Miliband, having seen their Scottish support eradicated, sell that to their troops in exchange for power at Westminster ?''
The conservative 'vote' in this poll says 12%. In the Election it was 16.7 - compared to the LD of 18.9. Look again and see whose vote was eradicated. The difference of 2% gave the LDs a lot of seats yet its vote was virtually the same which makes talks of Pandas and tories in Scotland a bit silly.
Mr. Llama, perhaps. Worth noting the Roman Empire lasted another two centuries in the West after the Crisis of the Third Century, and another 12 in the East.
That was then and anyway the Empire was run by Italians and was it not in decline and crisis for those two centuries.
As far as the UK is concerned for quite a few years I thought the best solution was a federal UK with each each fo the four parts having its own parliament with maximum but equal devolution and a small central government/legislature for UK wide issues only (primarily, in this day and age, setting the overall budget, defence and foreign affairs and probably, energy). However, events in the past year have convinced me that will no longer be good enough for the Scots and so they should go their own way as an independent country and the sooner the better.
O/T. I was thinking earlier that Cameron has played a blinder over the Greens. It would be nice to see Mike acknowledge this now since he gave him such grief. However, was this just luck on DC's part? Could he have known that the Greens would surge from the publicity? Either way it's such a win for him. If the TV broadcasters try and empty chair him the Greens could hit record heights: there's clearly an anti-Miliband and anti-established f-u mood around. And if the TV companies are forced to include the Greens it makes Cameron look tough, which will be no bad thing.
Finally, suppose they do go ahead without Cameron … suppose he runs an alternative debate against the Greens?
Mr. Llama, actually, that's not the case. During the Crisis and afterwards it was run by Danubian general-emperors such as Aurelian, Probus, and Diocletian. Italian emperors were so first century.
A federal UK would work, I believe. The major barrier to it is the cabal of politicians currently occupying the Palace of Westminster, who seem to have no notion of anything beyond the narrow-minded and short-sighted [I'm sure there are some honourable exceptions].
Edited extra bit: not entirely. The Empire did recover, certainly under Valentinian it was in decent shape, and it continued for over a thousand years in the East.
Mr Stodge - you say ''Could Cameron and Miliband, having seen their Scottish support eradicated, sell that to their troops in exchange for power at Westminster ?''
The conservative 'vote' in this poll says 12%. In the Election it was 16.7 - compared to the LD of 18.9. Look again and see whose vote was eradicated. The difference of 2% gave the LDs a lot of seats yet its vote was virtually the same which makes talks of Pandas and tories in Scotland a bit silly.
But it might as well be on panda levels, especially if the pandas get round to breeding, under FPTP, so I'm not sure of your logic, unless it is a matter of subs to CCHQ?
I thought the worst was when someone in that focus group compared him to one of those animals in the zoo that you don't care whether you see or not.
There is one thing that is worse for a politician than being hated. Being pitied.
Right. The image it brings to mind is of the early part of the film "Last King of Scotland" when the Scottish Doctor in the story grabs a handgun to put a beast out of its misery.
Let's suppose Jim Murphy achieves a remarkable turnaround, and saves lots of Scottish Labour MPs. Could he be tempted to take a shot at leading the Labour Party across Britain as a whole?
I thought the worst was when someone in that focus group compared him to one of those animals in the zoo that you don't care whether you see or not.
There is one thing that is worse for a politician than being hated. Being pitied.
Right. The image it brings to mind is of the early part of the film "Last King of Scotland" when the Scottish Doctor in the story grabs a handgun to put a beast out of its misery.
Let's suppose Jim Murphy achieves a remarkable turnaround, and saves lots of Scottish Labour MPs. Could he be tempted to take a shot at leading the Labour Party across Britain as a whole?
The Metro this morning had a picture of Ed Milliband with a caption saying 'Ed Balls Shadow Chancellor'. Not sure who should feel more slighted in this scenario.
Are people now saying 'SNP' as a protest vote comfortable in the knowledge that it is impossible for it to lead to independence since a - the referendum said NO and b - the oil price says NO
Plus of course they are comfortable that the SNP will not be governing nationally and thus it matters not a hoot as to what its policies are.
We must bare in mind that devolution was hatched by Labour - the exact same labour party that came to power and ruined the UK economy (again). Devolution seems to have shafted Labour instead of protecting it. We should remember this track record when we speculate on the likely effectiveness of its current policies.
A vote for SNP is a protest vote in that people are energised to vote for them in an election for Westminster when they might not care that much otherwise. It's important to remember that we are not talking about an SNP takeover in terms of voter share. It still represents about half the electorate. It's just the first past the post system doing its strange tricks. The other half are strongly anti-SNP.
The other point is that it is still about independence, because that is what is motivating the SNP support, even if another referendum is not on the cards.
Most English voters won't like the idea of the SNP deciding who runs the country. I wonder if polls like this might influence voters in the rest of the UK?
Although I do support their policy on less advertisements!
What's beautiful about the Greens is that their policies are so obviously insane that they could never get tolerated as a coalition partner, but they have the sort of pie in the sky thinking that could well attract ~10% of lefties on a regular basis, depriving more mainstream parties of their vote.
Although I do support their policy on less advertisements!
What's beautiful about the Greens is that their policies are so obviously insane that they could never get tolerated as a coalition partner, but they have the sort of pie in the sky thinking that could well attract ~10% of lefties on a regular basis, depriving more mainstream parties of their vote.
I'll credit you with five assists for the open goals Ukip haters are about to think they've scored
Most English voters won't like the idea of the SNP deciding who runs the country. I wonder if polls like this might influence voters in the rest of the UK?
Must say as someone who kind of sided with the nats on independence, the thought of sturgeons party influencing my life in Essex/London is one I don't like
Needing one (or wanting one), and affording one, are two different things entirely!
Obviously, but the proponents of the policy have thought about it far more deeply and understand it far better than the journalists / bloggers who have been attempting to dismiss it over the last day or two.
Most English voters won't like the idea of the SNP deciding who runs the country. I wonder if polls like this might influence voters in the rest of the UK?
Must say as someone who kind of sided with the nats on independence, the thought of sturgeons party influencing my life in Essex/London is one I don't like
Presumably that's why you sided with the nats - you understand why they dont like English Tories influencing their lives in Scotland.
Most English voters won't like the idea of the SNP deciding who runs the country. I wonder if polls like this might influence voters in the rest of the UK?
Must say as someone who kind of sided with the nats on independence, the thought of sturgeons party influencing my life in Essex/London is one I don't like
Presumably that's why you sided with the nats - you understand why they dont like English Tories influencing their lives in Scotland.
Yes
Quite fitting if English unionists have to wear deputy PM sturgeon as a result
I'm bemused by the reluctance to accept the reality of Scottish polling - Labour are likely to be slaughtered - but for whatever reason OGH, seems unwilling to accept it. Talk yesterday about local elections, today about shy unionists. Whatever next. The reality is that Scotland is no longer really a part of the UK. Despite the referendum result it really is time they went there own way.
I'm bemused by the reluctance to accept the reality of Scottish polling - Labour are likely to be slaughtered - but for whatever reason OGH, seems unwilling to accept it. Talk yesterday about local elections, today about shy unionists. Whatever next. The reality is that Scotland is no longer really a part of the UK. Despite the referendum result it really is time they went there own way.
I still don't understand the reference to Scottish interviewers by OGH. Is this really so? What difference would it make?
If people are speculating over what figure Labour would need to run a 'comfortable' minority government, you're probably talking around 290+. That way they would have the option of doing supply and confidence deals with both the Lib Dems and SNP and it wouldn't look like it's only the SNP propping the government up. The Lib Dems would also be more comfortable to vote through Labour budgets rather than the 'anti-austerity' SNP.
If people are speculating over what figure Labour would need to run a 'comfortable' minority government, you're probably talking around 290+. That way they would have the option of doing supply and confidence deals with both the Lib Dems and SNP and it wouldn't look like it's only the SNP propping the government up. The Lib Dems would also be more comfortable to vote through Labour budgets rather than the 'anti-austerity' SNP.
Given that they will surely lose around 10-15 to SNP, can they really gain the 40-50 seats needed in England and Wales to achieve that. Based on current polling and leadership ratings, I would suggest not.
Most English voters won't like the idea of the SNP deciding who runs the country. I wonder if polls like this might influence voters in the rest of the UK?
Must say as someone who kind of sided with the nats on independence, the thought of sturgeons party influencing my life in Essex/London is one I don't like
Presumably that's why you sided with the nats - you understand why they dont like English Tories influencing their lives in Scotland.
Yes
Quite fitting if English unionists have to wear deputy PM sturgeon as a result
What people don't seem to be discussing is whether SNP policies (at least on UK issues, not specifically English ones) might actually be popular with the folk down south. A possibility that shouldn't be dismissed, if only on logical principle. In fact some Scottish intervention in English politics could be popular with the natives (though that is perhaps going too far).
Intervention is, after all, the principle on which the Tory minority in Scotland has relied for a very long time, to have its way never mind what most of the natives think.
I'm bemused by the reluctance to accept the reality of Scottish polling - Labour are likely to be slaughtered - but for whatever reason OGH, seems unwilling to accept it. Talk yesterday about local elections, today about shy unionists. Whatever next. The reality is that Scotland is no longer really a part of the UK. Despite the referendum result it really is time they went there own way.
I still don't understand the reference to Scottish interviewers by OGH. Is this really so? What difference would it make?
It's one of the most bizarre comments and just screams desperation. I'm English and a unionist but at the end of the day it takes two to tango and the Scots clearly prefer the highland fling. Time to let em get on with it.
I'm bemused by the reluctance to accept the reality of Scottish polling - Labour are likely to be slaughtered - but for whatever reason OGH, seems unwilling to accept it. Talk yesterday about local elections, today about shy unionists. Whatever next. The reality is that Scotland is no longer really a part of the UK. Despite the referendum result it really is time they went there own way.
I still don't understand the reference to Scottish interviewers by OGH. Is this really so? What difference would it make?
It's one of the most bizarre comments and just screams desperation. I'm English and a unionist but at the end of the day it takes two to tango and the Scots clearly prefer the highland fling. Time to let em get on with it.
It's because a Scottish accent may serve as a Scottish prompt, hence a non-unionist pro-SNP response.
It's not really rocket science and Mike might have a bit of a point although I grant you that it does sound a little bit feeble the more I wrote the sentence
I'm bemused by the reluctance to accept the reality of Scottish polling - Labour are likely to be slaughtered - but for whatever reason OGH, seems unwilling to accept it. Talk yesterday about local elections, today about shy unionists. Whatever next. The reality is that Scotland is no longer really a part of the UK. Despite the referendum result it really is time they went there own way.
I still don't understand the reference to Scottish interviewers by OGH. Is this really so? What difference would it make?
It's one of the most bizarre comments and just screams desperation. I'm English and a unionist but at the end of the day it takes two to tango and the Scots clearly prefer the highland fling. Time to let em get on with it.
Let's see what the Ashcroft Scottish polling produces. I understand that he uses England-based calling centres.
Hmm, I'm liking my betting position in Scotland this afternoon.
All your money is on a SNP win in Renfrewshire East?
Fortunately not.
With three Scottish polls this week showing leads of 10%, 20% and 28% (with the smallest of those being recorded by a pollster that asked a question about oil prices first), it appears that the SNP's lead is somewhere between substantial and ginormous. With just over three months to go to the next election, the SNP should now be odds on in the majority of Scottish seats.
I'm bemused by the reluctance to accept the reality of Scottish polling - Labour are likely to be slaughtered - but for whatever reason OGH, seems unwilling to accept it. Talk yesterday about local elections, today about shy unionists. Whatever next. The reality is that Scotland is no longer really a part of the UK. Despite the referendum result it really is time they went there own way.
I still don't understand the reference to Scottish interviewers by OGH. Is this really so? What difference would it make?
It's one of the most bizarre comments and just screams desperation. I'm English and a unionist but at the end of the day it takes two to tango and the Scots clearly prefer the highland fling. Time to let em get on with it.
It's because a Scottish accent may serve as a Scottish prompt, hence a non-unionist pro-SNP response.
It's not really rocket science and Mike might have a bit of a point although I grant you that it does sound a little bit feeble the more I wrote the sentence
Ah, thank you. But if one were that way minded, one could argue the reverse - an English accent could in theory serve as a pro-Scottish prompt and a pro-SNP response. *
And if the interviewers are not in fact Scottish?
Also: it seems rather late to bring that issue up - Scottish polls and politics have sort of been important for the last 3 years in particular?
*Edit: not in a negative way - just reminding about the wider UK context rather than, say, domestic issues
Most English voters won't like the idea of the SNP deciding who runs the country. I wonder if polls like this might influence voters in the rest of the UK?
Must say as someone who kind of sided with the nats on independence, the thought of sturgeons party influencing my life in Essex/London is one I don't like
Presumably that's why you sided with the nats - you understand why they dont like English Tories influencing their lives in Scotland.
Yes
Quite fitting if English unionists have to wear deputy PM sturgeon as a result
What people don't seem to be discussing is whether SNP policies (at least on UK issues, not specifically English ones) might actually be popular with the folk down south. A possibility that shouldn't be dismissed, if only on logical principle. In fact some Scottish intervention in English politics could be popular with the natives (though that is perhaps going too far).
Intervention is, after all, the principle on which the Tory minority in Scotland has relied for a very long time, to have its way never mind what most of the natives think.
Not a chance. Sturgeon is way to the left of the rest of the UK - the anti-austerity approach would wreck the UK economy. The only way for the Scots to understand this is to go it alone. I think they'd live to regret it but I do believe that they need to face reality and try it on their own. The oil price may bounce back - eventually.
Why is that Scotland is so hard to poll? I think Alistair made a very good point that the confusion that arises about past voting intent when we have elections to the Scottish Parliament as well UK elections is at least a part of the problem and the emphasis put on past voting varying between different pollsters results in these absurd spreads. The problem has previously been that there have been different voting patterns for each type of election as
IndyRef recall should have put paid to this problem but, in a move that I cannot fathom, not all pollsters are weighing by IndyRef vote
How do you weight for the Indyref vote? I think it is seriously problematic. There were no parties and there was exceptional turnout, something unlikely to be repeated (although I would not be surprised if voting was up in Scotland compared to 2010, voting is habit forming).
If I was to tell you that this poll had 65% Yes voters and 35% No voters would the 28 point lead seem that remarkable? Or would you question the validity of the entire survey?
We don't know as Ipsos Mori didn't ask how people voted in the referendum.
The absolute number one primary weighting for any Scottish poll should be referendum vote.
Hmm, I'm liking my betting position in Scotland this afternoon.
All your money is on a SNP win in Renfrewshire East?
Fortunately not.
With three Scottish polls this week showing leads of 10%, 20% and 28% (with the smallest of those being recorded by a pollster that asked a question about oil prices first), it appears that the SNP's lead is somewhere between substantial and ginormous. With just over three months to go to the next election, the SNP should now be odds on in the majority of Scottish seats.
I'm mostly on seats that are now odds on or I got on Edinburgh and Glasgow seats when they were much longer odds (although not as long as when you did!). I'm now looking at those seats that are still odds against.
I'm bemused by the reluctance to accept the reality of Scottish polling - Labour are likely to be slaughtered - but for whatever reason OGH, seems unwilling to accept it. Talk yesterday about local elections, today about shy unionists. Whatever next. The reality is that Scotland is no longer really a part of the UK. Despite the referendum result it really is time they went there own way.
Well Scotland only polling doesn't have the track record that UK wide polls have, even now there's a 18% difference between pollsters.
Polls were all over the place during the referendum campaign, ICM and YouGov both had Yes ahead at a late stage. In 2011 there was apparently a 20% Lab -> SNP swing in the one month before the Holyrood election and in 2010 the Scotland voting intention polls were out by 10%+.
Ashcroft's constituency polls may help give us a better picture this time round.
Most English voters won't like the idea of the SNP deciding who runs the country. I wonder if polls like this might influence voters in the rest of the UK?
Must say as someone who kind of sided with the nats on independence, the thought of sturgeons party influencing my life in Essex/London is one I don't like
Presumably that's why you sided with the nats - you understand why they dont like English Tories influencing their lives in Scotland.
Except the Scottish have their own parliament to protect themselves from southern meddling. The English, on the other hand, don't have the reverse.
FWIW, I think we will end up with something like this: -
Con - roughly same seats Lab - roughly same seats SNP - 20-25 more seats LIB DEM - 20-25 less seats UKIP 1 GREEN 1 NI - the same
So either CON minority (cannot see LIB DEM wanting to stay in coalition) or rainbow coalition.
All based on polling and pre-election trends in my experience.
Any anti-Tory Coalition needs to have the numbers to defeat Cameron without relying on the Liberal Democrats.
If we assume that the Coalition with Cameron does not continue, then Nick Clegg ceases to be leader, and I don't think the Party would have the appetite, or leadership, to negotiate an immediate Coalition with Labour and the SNP. I just don't see it.
Most English voters won't like the idea of the SNP deciding who runs the country. I wonder if polls like this might influence voters in the rest of the UK?
Must say as someone who kind of sided with the nats on independence, the thought of sturgeons party influencing my life in Essex/London is one I don't like
Presumably that's why you sided with the nats - you understand why they dont like English Tories influencing their lives in Scotland.
Except the Scottish have their own parliament to protect themselves from southern meddling. The English, on the other hand, don't have the reverse.
Only for a minority of activity. It's surprising how much is still reserved - a look at the public info leaflet for the Scottish Pmt is quite an eye opener.
And the Westminster Pmt is 90% English anyway, so the issue arises very rarely. I think only 0.4% of recent divisions were affected by Scottish MPs (see the HoC Library documents I linked to the other day).
Most English voters won't like the idea of the SNP deciding who runs the country. I wonder if polls like this might influence voters in the rest of the UK?
Must say as someone who kind of sided with the nats on independence, the thought of sturgeons party influencing my life in Essex/London is one I don't like
Presumably that's why you sided with the nats - you understand why they dont like English Tories influencing their lives in Scotland.
Yes
Quite fitting if English unionists have to wear deputy PM sturgeon as a result
What people don't seem to be discussing is whether SNP policies (at least on UK issues, not specifically English ones) might actually be popular with the folk down south. A possibility that shouldn't be dismissed, if only on logical principle. In fact some Scottish intervention in English politics could be popular with the natives (though that is perhaps going too far).
Intervention is, after all, the principle on which the Tory minority in Scotland has relied for a very long time, to have its way never mind what most of the natives think.
Yeah I wish they'd win the Indy vote... Better good neighbours than Forced marriage
Most English voters won't like the idea of the SNP deciding who runs the country. I wonder if polls like this might influence voters in the rest of the UK?
Must say as someone who kind of sided with the nats on independence, the thought of sturgeons party influencing my life in Essex/London is one I don't like
Presumably that's why you sided with the nats - you understand why they dont like English Tories influencing their lives in Scotland.
Except the Scottish have their own parliament to protect themselves from southern meddling. The English, on the other hand, don't have the reverse.
They still have English tories influencing their lives in Scotland.
I'm bemused by the reluctance to accept the reality of Scottish polling - Labour are likely to be slaughtered - but for whatever reason OGH, seems unwilling to accept it. Talk yesterday about local elections, today about shy unionists. Whatever next. The reality is that Scotland is no longer really a part of the UK. Despite the referendum result it really is time they went there own way.
I still don't understand the reference to Scottish interviewers by OGH. Is this really so? What difference would it make?
It's one of the most bizarre comments and just screams desperation. I'm English and a unionist but at the end of the day it takes two to tango and the Scots clearly prefer the highland fling. Time to let em get on with it.
It's because a Scottish accent may serve as a Scottish prompt, hence a non-unionist pro-SNP response.
It's not really rocket science and Mike might have a bit of a point although I grant you that it does sound a little bit feeble the more I wrote the sentence
I think the implication is that Scots voters may be reluctant/ashamed to admit to a fellow Scot that they support any party other than the SNP.
If we have reached the point that it is widely assumed that someone with a Scottish accent is going to be an SNP supporter, it really is all up for the unionist parties in May.
What Labour must do in Scotland is-------their best. I think Jim Murphy will see to that.
If he can survive to next year, the Holyrood election is not likely to be quite so bad and even if he keeps ten seats, expectations are so low that it will seem like a mini triumph.
Coalitions work by agreeing to what you can both agree on and agreeing to disagree on the rest. In spite of the possible 50 seats there won't be a coalition between the SNP and another party unless both sides can find areas of common interest. What the SNP can do however is to vote on a no confidence motion with whichever of Labour or Conservative that doesn't get into government and bring the latter down.
Edited extra bit: my metaphor was not mixed, you varlet!
"However, if Sturgeon gets her role (if she has one) in the horse-trading after the election wrong then that could see the tide go out more rapidly than anticipated." Unless you trade horses on a beach, that is a metaphor which is mixed
Looking at the Scottish polling methodologies it appears that only Survation are weighting by Scottish region. However, Panelbase, Ipsos-MORI and YouGov don't weight by region, I think given the uneven dispersion of party support across Scotland, not weighting regionally is potentially a flaw in their methodologies. This might go someway to explaining the wide variation in the results of the polls.
I think Survation are currently looking like the gold standard for Scotland. They picked up SNP surge 6 months before the referendum, whereas most pollsters didn't pick it up until after the ref.
I presumed the opposite effect. Some might want to vote SNP, but feel reluctant to say it to an English person on the phone.
And some might think "Feck you, Jimmy" at the thought of an English tosser wasting their time and interfering in Scottish affairs, and be pushed towards, and say, SNP. I think both effects would happen, their impact would be relatively trivial anyway and they would tend to self-cancel. Nothing to see here, really, and no great weight to be attached to Ashcroft, whatever accent he polls in.
If we have reached the point that it is widely assumed that someone with a Scottish accent is going to be an SNP supporter, it really is all up for the unionist parties in May.
I think you might have the wrong end of the stick old chap.
Thank you for making the point I have been trying to make for some days about Mike's reluctance to accept the reality of the polling from Scotland.
Mike's point about "non-Scottish interviews" borders on the absurd or offensive. Presumably that nationality of the questioners in each poll has not changed since the referendum. What has changed is the voting patterns which are likely to cause a sensational change of seats in the General Election in just over three months time!
Just to come to Mike's aid for a second, I think we need to remember our psephology. Whilst not going down the NLP route, for which there is mixed evidence, subliminal messages become important in politics.
Was searching for that episode of Yes Minister, or Yes Prime Minister, when it talks about the background for the national broadcast: radical for nondescript message and calm/reassuring for something risky. Instead I came across this one on how to influence opinion polls:
Most English voters won't like the idea of the SNP deciding who runs the country. I wonder if polls like this might influence voters in the rest of the UK?
Must say as someone who kind of sided with the nats on independence, the thought of sturgeons party influencing my life in Essex/London is one I don't like
Presumably that's why you sided with the nats - you understand why they dont like English Tories influencing their lives in Scotland.
Except the Scottish have their own parliament to protect themselves from southern meddling. The English, on the other hand, don't have the reverse.
They still have English tories influencing their lives in Scotland.
They have British votes affecting their lives in Britain.
If we have reached the point that it is widely assumed that someone with a Scottish accent is going to be an SNP supporter, it really is all up for the unionist parties in May.
It has been for a while. Why vote for them? What is happening in Scotland merely reflects the widespread dissatisfaction with the Westminster elite that exist across the whole of Britain. The Scots have a party through which to express their dissatisfaction, as do the Welsh. Unfortunately, many of us in England do not.
What Labour must do in Scotland is-------their best. I think Jim Murphy will see to that.
If he can survive to next year, the Holyrood election is not likely to be quite so bad and even if he keeps ten seats, expectations are so low that it will seem like a mini triumph.
Coalitions work by agreeing to what you can both agree on and agreeing to disagree on the rest. In spite of the possible 50 seats there won't be a coalition between the SNP and another party unless both sides can find areas of common interest. What the SNP can do however is to vote on a no confidence motion with whichever of Labour or Conservative that doesn't get into government and bring the latter down.
There is no way that the SNP will vote to bring down a minority Labour government. They did that once before and it turned out very badly for them.
STV Ipsos-MORI phone poll in Scotland has SNP lead of 28% SNP 52% LAB 24% CON 12% LD 4% GRN 4% Murphy would lose
So no UKIP in Scotland? Have Ipsos/Mori got a vendetta against UKIP? I wonder how the questions were framed?
It takes a very special type of person to look at that Scottish opinion poll and wonder as one of his first thoughts about why UKIP were not doing better.
STV Ipsos-MORI phone poll in Scotland has SNP lead of 28% SNP 52% LAB 24% CON 12% LD 4% GRN 4% Murphy would lose
So no UKIP in Scotland? Have Ipsos/Mori got a vendetta against UKIP? I wonder how the questions were framed?
It takes a very special type of person to look at that Scottish opinion poll and wonder as one of his first thoughts about why UKIP were not doing better.
'Special' as in Richard Feynman or 'special' as in needs?
If people are speculating over what figure Labour would need to run a 'comfortable' minority government, you're probably talking around 290+. That way they would have the option of doing supply and confidence deals with both the Lib Dems and SNP and it wouldn't look like it's only the SNP propping the government up. The Lib Dems would also be more comfortable to vote through Labour budgets rather than the 'anti-austerity' SNP.
If Labour has 290 seats and the SNP has cleaned up in Scotland expect to see EV4EL introduced almost immediately. It won't happen though.
STV Ipsos-MORI phone poll in Scotland has SNP lead of 28% SNP 52% LAB 24% CON 12% LD 4% GRN 4% Murphy would lose
So no UKIP in Scotland? Have Ipsos/Mori got a vendetta against UKIP? I wonder how the questions were framed?
It takes a very special type of person to look at that Scottish opinion poll and wonder as one of his first thoughts about why UKIP were not doing better.
'Special' as in Richard Feynman or 'special' as in needs?
It's nice to be nice.
I was thinking more "special" in the sense of the type of person who hears the story of the sinking of the Titanic and wonders about what happened to the iceberg.
STV Ipsos-MORI phone poll in Scotland has SNP lead of 28% SNP 52% LAB 24% CON 12% LD 4% GRN 4% Murphy would lose
So no UKIP in Scotland? Have Ipsos/Mori got a vendetta against UKIP? I wonder how the questions were framed?
It takes a very special type of person to look at that Scottish opinion poll and wonder as one of his first thoughts about why UKIP were not doing better.
'Special' as in Richard Feynman or 'special' as in needs?
It's nice to be nice.
I was thinking more "special" in the sense of the type of person who hears the story of the sinking of the Titanic and wonders about what happened to the iceberg.
Ah, I work with people like that. They think at what I consider to be right angles to everyone else. It can be a useful trait, to be fair.
And it may be nice to be nice, but it's not very cathartic.
STV Ipsos-MORI phone poll in Scotland has SNP lead of 28% SNP 52% LAB 24% CON 12% LD 4% GRN 4% Murphy would lose
So no UKIP in Scotland? Have Ipsos/Mori got a vendetta against UKIP? I wonder how the questions were framed?
It takes a very special type of person to look at that Scottish opinion poll and wonder as one of his first thoughts about why UKIP were not doing better.
'Special' as in Richard Feynman or 'special' as in needs?
It's nice to be nice.
I was thinking more "special" in the sense of the type of person who hears the story of the sinking of the Titanic and wonders about what happened to the iceberg.
I think you'll find that Richard Feynman always framed his questions so he'd get answers.
Don't understand the confusion here. If you're a Scot, and you want what's best for Scotland, and you want your vote to count, in the next Westminster parliament - which will thrash out the details of Devomax - you vote for the SNP. Your party might even - quite likely - hold the balance of power in its hands. Be the kingmakers in London.
It's that simple. A vote for sturgeon gives your nation and your MP and your vote maximum political impact in Westminster.
Holyrood in 2016 will be a very different affair, but the Nats are gonna storm it in 2015.
Why does voting for the SNP give you what's best for Scotland? Does the SNP have a monopoly on what's best for Scotland? Has the SNP govt been a glorious new age for Scotland? All hail the trams...
How would 40 SNP MPs benefit Scotland? How would that work?
Don't understand the confusion here. If you're a Scot, and you want what's best for Scotland, and you want your vote to count, in the next Westminster parliament - which will thrash out the details of Devomax - you vote for the SNP. Your party might even - quite likely - hold the balance of power in its hands. Be the kingmakers in London.
It's that simple. A vote for sturgeon gives your nation and your MP and your vote maximum political impact in Westminster.
Holyrood in 2016 will be a very different affair, but the Nats are gonna storm it in 2015.
Why does voting for the SNP give you what's best for Scotland? Does the SNP have a monopoly on what's best for Scotland? Has the SNP govt been a glorious new age for Scotland? All hail the trams...
How would 40 SNP MPs benefit Scotland? How would that work?
You have answered your own question. The trams were imposed on Scotland, and especially Edinburgh, by a SLAB-LD-Tory-Green alliance.
Jeez F##king Christ....This and bloody Page 3....the world is going to hell in a handcart and all people are obsessing about is breasts (the human and chicken variety).
I couldn't believe R5 was leading with Page 3 all yesterday, then after all the BS, oh ISIS are threatening to lop off two Japanese hostages heads, former head of MI6 says another terrorist attack can't be prevented and about 10 other more important stories, than if Sophie, 21, from Bedford appears with her tits out or covered up. It is as bad as Sophie's view on the merits of EU expansion or Quantitative Easing.
I don't give a s##t if Cameron prefers Harvester or Nando's, or what Farage thinks about this or anybody else frankly.
Why is that Scotland is so hard to poll? I think Alistair made a very good point that the confusion that arises about past voting intent when we have elections to the Scottish Parliament as well UK elections is at least a part of the problem and the emphasis put on past voting varying between different pollsters results in these absurd spreads. The problem has previously been that there have been different voting patterns for each type of election as
IndyRef recall should have put paid to this problem but, in a move that I cannot fathom, not all pollsters are weighing by IndyRef vote
How do you weight for the Indyref vote? I think it is seriously problematic. There were no parties and there was exceptional turnout, something unlikely to be repeated (although I would not be surprised if voting was up in Scotland compared to 2010, voting is habit forming).
My own thoughts is that the Yes result is a rough and ready indicator of SNP potential in an area but it is very rough. I came across quite a number of SNP voters who were voting no and of course even more Labour and Lib Dem supporters who were voting yes. Don't think I met a Yes tory but they presumably existed somewhere.
I have suggested that where there are a number of Unionist parties in play, such as in Argyll or Inverness a strongish (40%+) vote for Yes is likely to be decisive. This just might prove to be the case in seats such as East Dumbartonshire where Labour ought to win and the SNP did really badly the last time although that is a big ask.
Areas which were pretty strongly no such as Kincardine and Berwickshire should prove harder for the SNP but the split of the Unionist vote might again be decisive.
One thing is for sure: the Scottish results will not be the snorefest of 2010.
Wales is going to get the snorefest crown this time round.
Yup. Only two seats have a very good chance of changing hands in Wales: Cardiff North and Cardiff Central.
Otherwise, the only outside shots I can see is the Tories taking Brecon, and AT A PUSH maybe Plaid Cymru taking Ynys Mon.
Most English voters won't like the idea of the SNP deciding who runs the country. I wonder if polls like this might influence voters in the rest of the UK?
Must say as someone who kind of sided with the nats on independence, the thought of sturgeons party influencing my life in Essex/London is one I don't like
Presumably that's why you sided with the nats - you understand why they dont like English Tories influencing their lives in Scotland.
Except the Scottish have their own parliament to protect themselves from southern meddling. The English, on the other hand, don't have the reverse.
They still have English tories influencing their lives in Scotland.
They have British votes affecting their lives in Britain.
No such thing. UK votes, perhaps. It's an important distinction.
Mr. K, must agree entirely. In addition, the way secret services are trying to use the Paris attacks to get an illiberal, unworkable, intrusive and plain stupid set of power is despicable.
I'm not smearing anyone. We will see who's right at the GE.
We wont see who's right at the GE because (1) this isnt their estimate of how UKIP will do in Scotland at the GE and (2) we dont know what your estimate of how UKIP will do in Scotland at the GE is.
'Look again and see whose vote was eradicated. The difference of 2% gave the LDs a lot of seats yet its vote was virtually the same which makes talks of Pandas and tories in Scotland a bit silly.
Some might say that the Lib Dems will be pounded like a dockside hooker
Comments
[Also: tsk, tsk, mixed metaphors from such a distinguished writer]
Edited extra bit: my metaphor was not mixed, you varlet!
Mr. Carnyx, if only the leftwing Westminster clowns would so readily understand England as a single land instead of trying to carve it up.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4AHbikkm1E
"why the anti-SNP parties are spending so much time spreading scare stories about a rerun"
Are they doing that? Can't tell from down here. However, perhaps the London based parties should be encouraging another referendum and if necessary one to be held every six months until the Scots get to the correct answer. The Union is now irreparably broken and the sooner it is consigned to history the better for everyone.
The aptly named for UKIP, Councillor Colin (''How are my kids meant to get a job when our political class support open-door mass immigration'') Race, said all the expected Westminster Bubbly things for a kipper defector and the Labour party he left did the same -
“On the day Nigel Farage confirmed his plans to privatise the NHS, people in Bishop Auckland will rightly be questioning the decision of one of their town councillors.
“UKIP’s policies include another tax break for millionaires, higher taxes on working families, scrapping rights as at work and higher bankers’ bonuses.
“They can’t be described as a party who will stand up for working people.''
There is one thing that is worse for a politician than being hated. Being pitied.
Labour is unable to adopt an effective differentiation strategy against the SNP. They can only hope to convince a part of the current support for independence that it's not worth it. As support for independence declines, so will the SNP vote. It's possible: support for independence has waxed and waned over the past thirty years and something similar happened in Quebec. But it won't happen in time for the May election and unlikely for next year's Holyrood election either.
Also of the talk of an anti-SNP Grand Coalition (which would really kill off SLAB for ever).
And why the media continue to be obsessed with the issue of a second indyref even though it is very much the policy of the pro-indy side to see what the Unionists make of their claim to be better at ruling Scotland.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30920121
By insisting he isn't delaying the Chilcott report, he's reminding people all about Iraq, how tremendously trustworthy he is (ahem), and, I would suggest, a majority of people will now assume he *is* delaying the report's release.
The conservative 'vote' in this poll says 12%. In the Election it was 16.7 - compared to the LD of 18.9.
Look again and see whose vote was eradicated. The difference of 2% gave the LDs a lot of seats yet its vote was virtually the same which makes talks of Pandas and tories in Scotland a bit silly.
As far as the UK is concerned for quite a few years I thought the best solution was a federal UK with each each fo the four parts having its own parliament with maximum but equal devolution and a small central government/legislature for UK wide issues only (primarily, in this day and age, setting the overall budget, defence and foreign affairs and probably, energy). However, events in the past year have convinced me that will no longer be good enough for the Scots and so they should go their own way as an independent country and the sooner the better.
O/T. I was thinking earlier that Cameron has played a blinder over the Greens. It would be nice to see Mike acknowledge this now since he gave him such grief. However, was this just luck on DC's part? Could he have known that the Greens would surge from the publicity? Either way it's such a win for him. If the TV broadcasters try and empty chair him the Greens could hit record heights: there's clearly an anti-Miliband and anti-established f-u mood around. And if the TV companies are forced to include the Greens it makes Cameron look tough, which will be no bad thing.
Finally, suppose they do go ahead without Cameron … suppose he runs an alternative debate against the Greens?
A federal UK would work, I believe. The major barrier to it is the cabal of politicians currently occupying the Palace of Westminster, who seem to have no notion of anything beyond the narrow-minded and short-sighted [I'm sure there are some honourable exceptions].
Edited extra bit: not entirely. The Empire did recover, certainly under Valentinian it was in decent shape, and it continued for over a thousand years in the East.
Let's suppose Jim Murphy achieves a remarkable turnaround, and saves lots of Scottish Labour MPs. Could he be tempted to take a shot at leading the Labour Party across Britain as a whole?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/01/welcome-to-the-bonkers-world-of-the-green-party-manifesto/
Although I do support their policy on less advertisements!
The other point is that it is still about independence, because that is what is motivating the SNP support, even if another referendum is not on the cards.
http://www.citizensincome.org/
Germany, Belgium, Finland and Ireland amongst other countries.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-30917414
"Ms Sturgeon has ruled out doing any deal with the Tories but her party could enter into talks with Labour.
She told Nick Robinson that she was "instinctively not too enthusiastic" about a formal coalition but "tended" towards a vote-by-vote deal."
It doesn't sound as if a Labour/SNP coalition is on the cards.
Quite fitting if English unionists have to wear deputy PM sturgeon as a result
Con - roughly same seats
Lab - roughly same seats
SNP - 20-25 more seats
LIB DEM - 20-25 less seats
UKIP 1
GREEN 1
NI - the same
So either CON minority (cannot see LIB DEM wanting to stay in coalition)
or rainbow coalition.
All based on polling and pre-election trends in my experience.
I think Jim Murphy will see to that.
Intervention is, after all, the principle on which the Tory minority in Scotland has relied for a very long time, to have its way never mind what most of the natives think.
It's not really rocket science and Mike might have a bit of a point although I grant you that it does sound a little bit feeble the more I wrote the sentence
With three Scottish polls this week showing leads of 10%, 20% and 28% (with the smallest of those being recorded by a pollster that asked a question about oil prices first), it appears that the SNP's lead is somewhere between substantial and ginormous. With just over three months to go to the next election, the SNP should now be odds on in the majority of Scottish seats.
And if the interviewers are not in fact Scottish?
Also: it seems rather late to bring that issue up - Scottish polls and politics have sort of been important for the last 3 years in particular?
*Edit: not in a negative way - just reminding about the wider UK context rather than, say, domestic issues
We don't know as Ipsos Mori didn't ask how people voted in the referendum.
The absolute number one primary weighting for any Scottish poll should be referendum vote.
Polls were all over the place during the referendum campaign, ICM and YouGov both had Yes ahead at a late stage. In 2011 there was apparently a 20% Lab -> SNP swing in the one month before the Holyrood election and in 2010 the Scotland voting intention polls were out by 10%+.
Ashcroft's constituency polls may help give us a better picture this time round.
I presumed the opposite effect. Some might want to vote SNP, but feel reluctant to say it to an English person on the phone.
If we assume that the Coalition with Cameron does not continue, then Nick Clegg ceases to be leader, and I don't think the Party would have the appetite, or leadership, to negotiate an immediate Coalition with Labour and the SNP. I just don't see it.
So Cameron continues as a minority PM.
And the Westminster Pmt is 90% English anyway, so the issue arises very rarely. I think only 0.4% of recent divisions were affected by Scottish MPs (see the HoC Library documents I linked to the other day).
Still a load of old bollox though.
Coalitions work by agreeing to what you can both agree on and agreeing to disagree on the rest. In spite of the possible 50 seats there won't be a coalition between the SNP and another party unless both sides can find areas of common interest. What the SNP can do however is to vote on a no confidence motion with whichever of Labour or Conservative that doesn't get into government and bring the latter down.
Unless you trade horses on a beach, that is a metaphor which is mixed
Terribly sorry. I retract the accusation of varlethood.
I think Survation are currently looking like the gold standard for Scotland. They picked up SNP surge 6 months before the referendum, whereas most pollsters didn't pick it up until after the ref.
Thank you for making the point I have been trying to make for some days about Mike's reluctance to accept the reality of the polling from Scotland.
Mike's point about "non-Scottish interviews" borders on the absurd or offensive. Presumably that nationality of the questioners in each poll has not changed since the referendum. What has changed is the voting patterns which are likely to cause a sensational change of seats in the General Election in just over three months time!
Was searching for that episode of Yes Minister, or Yes Prime Minister, when it talks about the background for the national broadcast: radical for nondescript message and calm/reassuring for something risky. Instead I came across this one on how to influence opinion polls:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
The oil will run out and be more expensive to extract for certain.
http://www.studentmoneysaver.co.uk/article/student-voting-survey-results-greens-2nd-largest-party/
SNP 52%
LAB 24%
CON 12%
LD 4%
GRN 4%
Murphy would lose
So no UKIP in Scotland? Have Ipsos/Mori got a vendetta against UKIP?
I wonder how the questions were framed?
I was thinking more "special" in the sense of the type of person who hears the story of the sinking of the Titanic and wonders about what happened to the iceberg.
That will come as a great relief to Labour no doubt.
And it may be nice to be nice, but it's not very cathartic.
How would 40 SNP MPs benefit Scotland? How would that work?
Jeez F##king Christ....This and bloody Page 3....the world is going to hell in a handcart and all people are obsessing about is breasts (the human and chicken variety).
I couldn't believe R5 was leading with Page 3 all yesterday, then after all the BS, oh ISIS are threatening to lop off two Japanese hostages heads, former head of MI6 says another terrorist attack can't be prevented and about 10 other more important stories, than if Sophie, 21, from Bedford appears with her tits out or covered up. It is as bad as Sophie's view on the merits of EU expansion or Quantitative Easing.
I don't give a s##t if Cameron prefers Harvester or Nando's, or what Farage thinks about this or anybody else frankly.
Instead of smearing pollsters, why not have a look at the data tables yourself
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scotland-pom-jan-2015-tables.pdf
These are the spineless cowards who have emboldened jihadis. Meet the fmr boss of Britain's MI6 plead for mercy . http://news.sky.com/story/1411409/ex-mi6-boss-warns-west-not-to-insult-islam …
Otherwise, the only outside shots I can see is the Tories taking Brecon, and AT A PUSH maybe Plaid Cymru taking Ynys Mon.
'Look again and see whose vote was eradicated. The difference of 2% gave the LDs a lot of seats yet its vote was virtually the same which makes talks of Pandas and tories in Scotland a bit silly.
Some might say that the Lib Dems will be pounded like a dockside hooker
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/middleton-heywood-mpjim-dobbin-died-8491335
Over consumption of Polish Spirit played a part.