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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-MORI phone poll has SNP with 28% lead in Scotland

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  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Ladbrokes currently have their over/under line on the SNP set at 29.5 (with each side being priced at 5/6). If you think that's a fair price, then you should be looking at constituency betting, given current prices.
  • I read that Bad Al is back helping Ed Miliband. I'm sure Ed said something about not going negative, yeah right.

    With Campbell in for Labour and Crosby for Tories, going to a clean fight all the way to May.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779
    SeanT said:


    Duh. Because it's very likely to be a close election, so Labour (and maybe Tories) will come seeking SNP help in forming a government, for which a high price will be extracted, benefiting Scots.

    Also, the more Nat MPs you send to Westminster the more you say to Labour "You can no longer take us for granted" - meaning more attention will be paid to Scottish interests, and of course the more Nat MPs the louder the Nat voice, and the greater the fear in London of another referendum, unless Devomax is truly generous

    etc etc etc etc

    Was that too hard to work out on your own?

    The shrewd approach for the SNP would be "everything short of independence". They would enjoy the fiscal security of the UK but would have carte blanche to govern as they saw fit in Scotland and have a key influence over UK laws.

    Sturgeon's position would parallel that of Redmond after the 1910 election who, had events in Europe not intervened, would almost certainly have secured Home Rule for Ireland.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/david-cameron-nigel-farage-and-the-real-leaders-debate-nandos-versus-harvester-9993339.html

    Jeez F##king Christ....This and bloody Page 3....the world is going to hell in a handcart and all people are obsessing about is breasts (the human and chicken variety).

    I couldn't believe R5 was leading with Page 3 all yesterday, then after all the BS, oh ISIS are threatening to lop off two Japanese hostages heads, former head of MI6 says another terrorist attack can't be prevented and about 10 other more important stories, than if Sophie, 21, from Bedford appears with her tits out or covered up. It is as bad as Sophie's view on the merits of EU expansion or Quantitative Easing.

    I don't give a s##t if Cameron prefers Harvester or Nando's, or what Farage thinks about this or anybody else frankly.

    I wonder what breaking point will be for the inane questions, faux outrage, focus group answers, lack of conviction in politics? Surely one day people will favour substance over spin?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    Robert Fox in the Standard tonight reporting the military have been critical of Iraq/Afghanistan and Chilcott delay.

    Government and civil service response so far: muttering about the arrogant military and threatening cuts in defence spending after the election by anything between eight and 40 per cent.

    Very worrying.
  • FF42FF42 Posts: 114

    FF42 said:

    Toms said:

    What Labour must do in Scotland is-------their best.
    I think Jim Murphy will see to that.

    If he can survive to next year, the Holyrood election is not likely to be quite so bad and even if he keeps ten seats, expectations are so low that it will seem like a mini triumph.

    Coalitions work by agreeing to what you can both agree on and agreeing to disagree on the rest. In spite of the possible 50 seats there won't be a coalition between the SNP and another party unless both sides can find areas of common interest. What the SNP can do however is to vote on a no confidence motion with whichever of Labour or Conservative that doesn't get into government and bring the latter down.

    There is no way that the SNP will vote to bring down a minority Labour government. They did that once before and it turned out very badly for them.

    IT's going to be interesting. It also depends on whether the position of the other of Labour/Tories has been strengthened. There's no reason to vote no confidence unless their position has strengthened. I suspect the SNP veto waging power won't amount to much, but we won't find that out until after we vote. Their best bet is to go for pure pork barrel, I think. Nobody in government cares about the odd billion bung.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited January 2015
    taffys said:

    I think we also forget that labour has 40 scotsmen, a significant chunk of their commons team.

    Chr8st knows what their morale must be like at a time when Ed needs all his troops on the attack.

    and yet faced with this Real and Present Danger to SLAB, Labour have not made Scotland their first priority for election resources. Labour are carrying on as if they were 10% ahead in the UK polls and are worrying about the colour of the curtains required in Ministerial offices.

    Scotland and the SNP? A mere flesh wound say Labour HQ.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    isam said:

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/david-cameron-nigel-farage-and-the-real-leaders-debate-nandos-versus-harvester-9993339.html

    Jeez F##king Christ....This and bloody Page 3....the world is going to hell in a handcart and all people are obsessing about is breasts (the human and chicken variety).

    I couldn't believe R5 was leading with Page 3 all yesterday, then after all the BS, oh ISIS are threatening to lop off two Japanese hostages heads, former head of MI6 says another terrorist attack can't be prevented and about 10 other more important stories, than if Sophie, 21, from Bedford appears with her tits out or covered up. It is as bad as Sophie's view on the merits of EU expansion or Quantitative Easing.

    I don't give a s##t if Cameron prefers Harvester or Nando's, or what Farage thinks about this or anybody else frankly.

    I wonder what breaking point will be for the inane questions, faux outrage, focus group answers, lack of conviction in politics? Surely one day people will favour substance over spin?
    Next we ask Ed Miliband how to eat a burger.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited January 2015
    They would enjoy the fiscal security of the UK but would have carte blanche to govern as they saw fit in Scotland and have a key influence over UK laws.

    I really don;t see how this actually works. Say the Scots vote themselves out of austerity. What happens next?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Oh FPT re Page 3 "Je Suis", Garry Bushell said it should be "Je suis Charlies"
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    MikeK said:

    STV Ipsos-MORI phone poll in Scotland has SNP lead of 28%
    SNP 52%
    LAB 24%
    CON 12%
    LD 4%
    GRN 4%
    Murphy would lose

    So no UKIP in Scotland? Have Ipsos/Mori got a vendetta against UKIP?
    I wonder how the questions were framed?

    UKIP are on 1%

    Instead of smearing pollsters, why not have a look at the data tables yourself

    https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/scotland-pom-jan-2015-tables.pdf
    thrashing the Scottish Christian party like a something on a something
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited January 2015
    Kafir Crusaders ‏@KafirCrusaders 3h3 hours ago
    British Muslim Justifies Paris Terrorist Massacre In 20 Min YouTube Rant http://wp.me/p2ymhN-1N1

    And this one is a lawyer.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Murphy makes 20 percent of electorate more likely to vote labour. Makes 28 percent less likely.
  • Greens on 20%, in 2nd place, amongst students according to new poll:

    http://www.studentmoneysaver.co.uk/article/student-voting-survey-results-greens-2nd-largest-party/

    And the Lib Dems on under 4%. How on Earth has Nick Clegg remained as party leader? He should have had the decency to resign immediately after the Euro elections.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Remake of Downfall.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30920086

    Germany Pegida: Protest leader quits in 'Hitler' row.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    The response of the German political elite to the Pegida protests has been breathtakingly arrogant and dismissive IMO. A bit like the initial attitude to UKIP in this country.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    Make London honour the Pledge. Vote SNP. For Scotland.

    9 words that kill Labour stone dead. I have been saying for a while I expect the SNP to poll over 50% in May. And now a poll backs that up. Cuz it's not just the Yes voters, but the No-but-more-devolutioners who can happily enter their tent under that message....
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    AndyJS said:

    The response of the German political elite to the Pegida protests has been breathtakingly arrogant and dismissive IMO. A bit like the initial attitude to UKIP in this country.

    The established political parties in most Western European countries are incredulous that the electorate should have the impertinence to vote for someone other than themselves.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tories have finally pulled ahead decisively with Betfair's most seats markets:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416473
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour's position collapsing with Betfair's overall majority market:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490
  • Neil said:

    RobD said:

    Neil said:

    RobD said:

    Neil said:

    RobD said:

    Some light reading on the Green Menance:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/01/welcome-to-the-bonkers-world-of-the-green-party-manifesto/

    Although I do support their policy on less advertisements!

    It's just a rehash of the Telegraph article. Though I'm glad the blogger agrees with me that we're only seeking to turn back the clock to 1750.

    I particularly like the policy which is estimated to cost £240billion. Talk about magic money trees.
    It is certainly a policy that has been gaining more currency over time.

    http://www.citizensincome.org/


    Needing one (or wanting one), and affording one, are two different things entirely!
    Obviously, but the proponents of the policy have thought about it far more deeply and understand it far better than the journalists / bloggers who have been attempting to dismiss it over the last day or two.

    A Green Party candidate told me in 1992 that it would involve a basic rate of income tax of around 45%?
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Is it my imagination (I haven't had time to read all the comments) but is there a deathy silence from the left ?

    I have now seen the tv pics of PMQ's ...Ed was so comprehensively despatched as though he was insignificant.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AndyJS said:

    The Tories have finally pulled ahead decisively with Betfair's most seats markets:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416473

    If you think the Conservatives are going to get most seats, far better to back them in seats like Nuneaton and Hastings & Rye, where you can back them at odds against to win, as I pointed out last week:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/reality-check-testing-betting-markets.html
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    UKIP ‏@UKIP 21m21 minutes ago
    UKIP's two MPs @DouglasCarswell & @MarkReckless today played a crucial role in ending public wind farm subsidies http://talkcarswell.com/home/the-case-for-wind-is-running-out-of-puff/2823
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    MikeK said:

    UKIP ‏@UKIP 21m21 minutes ago
    UKIP's two MPs @DouglasCarswell & @MarkReckless today played a crucial role in ending public wind farm subsidies http://talkcarswell.com/home/the-case-for-wind-is-running-out-of-puff/2823

    I think UKIP are wrong on wind farms and renewable energy. Hopefully they'll have a change of mind on the subject eventually.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    MikeK said:

    Kafir Crusaders ‏@KafirCrusaders 3h3 hours ago
    British Muslim Justifies Paris Terrorist Massacre In 20 Min YouTube Rant http://wp.me/p2ymhN-1N1

    And this one is a lawyer.

    Nothing to see here. Move along.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    antifrank said:

    AndyJS said:

    The Tories have finally pulled ahead decisively with Betfair's most seats markets:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416473

    If you think the Conservatives are going to get most seats, far better to back them in seats like Nuneaton and Hastings & Rye, where you can back them at odds against to win, as I pointed out last week:

    http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/01/reality-check-testing-betting-markets.html
    Hmm. Merits a look, but it is quite possible for Con to be ahead on seats even while losing English seats, as long as SLAB gets slaughtered as above.
  • John Rentoul making a complete fool of himself on C4 News. Nasty piece of work.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Evening all and the first I saw of the STV poll was the STV News at 6pm. I have to say my gut reaction is that the SNP leads over Labour of around 20% are closer to the truth than the 10%.

    However does that mean Scotland will see a Labour wipe-out, I am far from convinced. I think many of those 45-52% SNP voters will include the usual all mouth and don't vote fraternity. If the SNP can mobilise them as it did during the referendum then Labour is in deep shit. One third of its seats are in the areas which voted YES in September.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    John Rentoul making a complete fool of himself on C4 News. Nasty piece of work.

    How so?
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    If the Tories have another lead in YouGov tonight, we could be on for "proper" crossover for the first time this week.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    MikeK said:

    UKIP ‏@UKIP 21m21 minutes ago
    UKIP's two MPs @DouglasCarswell & @MarkReckless today played a crucial role in ending public wind farm subsidies http://talkcarswell.com/home/the-case-for-wind-is-running-out-of-puff/2823


    They've been ended? With a 10 minute rule bill?? Are you claiming that as of now there are no public subsidies for wind farms?
    Reading that blog I'm struggling to work out which party Carswell belongs to.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'd be interested to know whether the swing in the Glasgow/Strathclyde area is higher than on the east coast. If so the SNP may clean up in Glasgow but fall short in Falkirk, Fife, Edinburgh, etc.

    Evening all and the first I saw of the STV poll was the STV News at 6pm. I have to say my gut reaction is that the SNP leads over Labour of around 20% are closer to the truth than the 10%.

    However does that mean Scotland will see a Labour wipe-out, I am far from convinced. I think many of those 45-52% SNP voters will include the usual all mouth and don't vote fraternity. If the SNP can mobilise them as it did during the referendum then Labour is in deep shit. One third of its seats are in the areas which voted YES in September.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160

    Neil said:

    RobD said:

    Neil said:

    RobD said:

    Neil said:

    RobD said:

    Some light reading on the Green Menance:

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/01/welcome-to-the-bonkers-world-of-the-green-party-manifesto/

    Although I do support their policy on less advertisements!

    It's just a rehash of the Telegraph article. Though I'm glad the blogger agrees with me that we're only seeking to turn back the clock to 1750.

    I particularly like the policy which is estimated to cost £240billion. Talk about magic money trees.
    It is certainly a policy that has been gaining more currency over time.

    http://www.citizensincome.org/


    Needing one (or wanting one), and affording one, are two different things entirely!
    Obviously, but the proponents of the policy have thought about it far more deeply and understand it far better than the journalists / bloggers who have been attempting to dismiss it over the last day or two.

    A Green Party candidate told me in 1992 that it would involve a basic rate of income tax of around 45%?
    There is a certain amount of journo cut-out going on with some of these Green policies. For example, the Telegraph reports that:

    "Under Green plans, inheritance tax – “to prevent the accumulation of wealth and power by a privileged class” – will no longer just tax the dead."

    This is kind of true, but a very odd, or indeed, scurrilous, way of putting it. Green plans are to tax the recipients of any inheritance rather than the person who died. So, if you are dirt poor and Aunty Mabel pops off - you wont be paying any tax on your inheritance.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    MikeK said:

    UKIP ‏@UKIP 21m21 minutes ago
    UKIP's two MPs @DouglasCarswell & @MarkReckless today played a crucial role in ending public wind farm subsidies http://talkcarswell.com/home/the-case-for-wind-is-running-out-of-puff/2823


    They've been ended? With a 10 minute rule bill?? Are you claiming that as of now there are no public subsidies for wind farms?
    Reading that blog I'm struggling to work out which party Carswell belongs to.
    There's a lot of blue, and no purple. Funny that. He's good at talking himself up.
  • AndyJS said:

    John Rentoul making a complete fool of himself on C4 News. Nasty piece of work.

    How so?
    He is on to discuss the delays to Chilcott and said that the anger about the delays in its publication is artificial and whipped up by the press because they disagreed with the war. Caroline Lucas - who I do not agree with most of the time or support - made a very measured set of comments about how it damaged public perceptions of the inquiry and of politicians and he did the old attack dog tactic on her.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I'd love to know what the food and drinks bill was for the Chilcot inquiry over all the years it's been operating.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    Don't understand the confusion here. If you're a Scot, and you want what's best for Scotland, and you want your vote to count, in the next Westminster parliament - which will thrash out the details of Devomax - you vote for the SNP. Your party might even - quite likely - hold the balance of power in its hands. Be the kingmakers in London.

    It's that simple. A vote for sturgeon gives your nation and your MP and your vote maximum political impact in Westminster.

    Holyrood in 2016 will be a very different affair, but the Nats are gonna storm it in 2015.

    Why does voting for the SNP give you what's best for Scotland? Does the SNP have a monopoly on what's best for Scotland? Has the SNP govt been a glorious new age for Scotland? All hail the trams...

    How would 40 SNP MPs benefit Scotland? How would that work?
    Duh. Because it's very likely to be a close election, so Labour (and maybe Tories) will come seeking SNP help in forming a government, for which a high price will be extracted, benefiting Scots.

    Also, the more Nat MPs you send to Westminster the more you say to Labour "You can no longer take us for granted" - meaning more attention will be paid to Scottish interests, and of course the more Nat MPs the louder the Nat voice, and the greater the fear in London of another referendum, unless Devomax is truly generous

    etc etc etc etc

    Was that too hard to work out on your own?
    Duh...?? How does that actually help Scotland? How does behaving like a dictator to extract a high price for a particular region and its prejudices, help Scotland? We have already seen that an independent Scotland is a no no. So how does some block of Scottish votes help Scotland if it alienates the rest of the country?
    In case you have been asleep for 40 years Scotland has devolution. Explain how if it now seeks to dictate to the English, never mind the poor helpless Welsh, this helps Scotland with oil at $45?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Danny565 said:

    If the Tories have another lead in YouGov tonight, we could be on for "proper" crossover for the first time this week.

    If.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,872
    AndyJS said:

    Labour's position collapsing with Betfair's overall majority market:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.101416490

    Good, on both counts. Managed to green out on Labour Majority very cheaply.

    Now make a modest profit on a Con majority, and a monkey and a half on NOM.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,364
    AndyJS,

    "I'd love to know what the food and drinks bill was for the Chilcot inquiry over all the years it's been operating."

    Can we demand our money back? It's either incompetence or deliberate delaying tactics. Who appointed Chilcot? Shoot them both.

    It mat be a little over the top, but if the inquiry were run by plebs, they'd have been sacked years ago.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,364
    Come on, Ed, demand a Judge-led inquiry into the inquiries.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited January 2015
    The history of you gov is that those asked questions are perverse, I would not be surprised to see it the other way round tonight.
    The important thing.. as displayed at PMQ's.... is at least 90% of the the narrative is against Labour, its like King Canute trying to tell the waves to go back...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    I read that Bad Al is back helping Ed Miliband. I'm sure Ed said something about not going negative, yeah right.

    With Campbell in for Labour and Crosby for Tories, going to a clean fight all the way to May.

    Campbell in for Labour, and Chilcott kicked into touch. Interesting co-incidence.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    Edwardian said:

    Greens on 20%, in 2nd place, amongst students according to new poll:

    http://www.studentmoneysaver.co.uk/article/student-voting-survey-results-greens-2nd-largest-party/

    And the Lib Dems on under 4%. How on Earth has Nick Clegg remained as party leader? He should have had the decency to resign immediately after the Euro elections.

    The revolver's been decommissioned and Charlie Kennedy's drunk the whisky.

    Otherwise ..........
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160

    Edwardian said:

    Greens on 20%, in 2nd place, amongst students according to new poll:

    http://www.studentmoneysaver.co.uk/article/student-voting-survey-results-greens-2nd-largest-party/

    And the Lib Dems on under 4%. How on Earth has Nick Clegg remained as party leader? He should have had the decency to resign immediately after the Euro elections.

    The revolver's been decommissioned and Charlie Kennedy's drunk the whisky.

    Otherwise ..........
    ...and because all the pretenders to the throne would like Clegg to take the full rap for this one.

  • In case you have been asleep for 40 years Scotland has devolution.

    40 years, eh?

    Probably better sticking to subjects you have a clue about.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    edited January 2015

    Edwardian said:

    Greens on 20%, in 2nd place, amongst students according to new poll:

    http://www.studentmoneysaver.co.uk/article/student-voting-survey-results-greens-2nd-largest-party/

    And the Lib Dems on under 4%. How on Earth has Nick Clegg remained as party leader? He should have had the decency to resign immediately after the Euro elections.

    The revolver's been decommissioned and Charlie Kennedy's drunk the whisky.

    Otherwise ..........
    ...and because all the pretenders to the throne would like Clegg to take the full rap for this one.
    Go argue with the truth!!!!
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    With regard to the debates and also the examination of opposition parties financial plans by the OBR,these need to be put into legislation like fixed term parliaments so that never again can a slithery slithery thing of a Prime Minister ever stop them again.Cameron's cowardice must not be allowed to oppress democracy.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,554
    Jane Ellison looks and sounds like she's been photo copied from the New Labour playbook.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,163
    Is the question asking if non SNP supporters are claiming to be SNP supporters, or undecided, because of shyness? I don't see that if so. There was social pressure to back independence, but not to support the SNP (I wouldn't have said).

    I think many who didn't want independence (and still, if push came to shove, don't want it) DO want to be represented at Westminster by a fiercely pro-Scottish party. That's what a vote for the SNP represents.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    AndyJS said:

    The response of the German political elite to the Pegida protests has been breathtakingly arrogant and dismissive IMO. A bit like the initial attitude to UKIP in this country.

    The established political parties in most Western European countries are incredulous that the electorate should have the impertinence to vote for someone other than themselves.
    The people have forfeited the Government's confidence, and can only regain it with redoubled effort.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    AndyJS said:

    I'd be interested to know whether the swing in the Glasgow/Strathclyde area is higher than on the east coast. If so the SNP may clean up in Glasgow but fall short in Falkirk, Fife, Edinburgh, etc.

    Evening all and the first I saw of the STV poll was the STV News at 6pm. I have to say my gut reaction is that the SNP leads over Labour of around 20% are closer to the truth than the 10%.

    However does that mean Scotland will see a Labour wipe-out, I am far from convinced. I think many of those 45-52% SNP voters will include the usual all mouth and don't vote fraternity. If the SNP can mobilise them as it did during the referendum then Labour is in deep shit. One third of its seats are in the areas which voted YES in September.

    Only Survation weight by region - see Table 4:

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Daily-Record-Final-Tables.pdf

    Central region SNP at 58% !! - this area includes Falkirk, Stirling etc.

    Looking at all of the Scottish polling methodologies it appears that only Survation are weighting by Scottish region. However, Panelbase, Ipsos-MORI and YouGov don't weight by region, I think given the uneven dispersion of party support across Scotland, not weighting regionally is potentially a flaw in their methodologies. This might go someway to explaining the wide variation in the results of the polls.

    I think Survation are currently looking like the gold standard for Scotland. They picked up SNP surge 6 months before the referendum, whereas most pollsters didn't pick it up until after the ref. I would anticipate they'd be the first to identify any weakening in SNP support.
  • Vince Cable's best mate Lord Oaksh*tt donates £300,000 to 30 Labour candidates and £300,000 to 15 Lib Dems and £10,000 to the Greens. http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/former-lib-dem-lord-oakeshott-donates-300000-labour-candidates

    Since Oaksh*tt does nothing without discussing this with his mate Vince.....
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Plain packs, look we're doing something.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30926973

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @dr_spyn
    Fill the war chest, then stab the donors in the back?
    ;-)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    dr_spyn said:

    Plain packs, look we're doing something.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30926973

    Mmm. Tories in London copying SNP in Edinburgh, again, all of a sudden.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited January 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    @dr_spyn
    Fill the war chest, then stab the donors in the back?
    ;-)

    Given that there is a smoking ban in public places, advertising ban, sport sponsorship ban, no sales to under 18s, high rates of duty, health education campaigns, health warnings on packets, covered up display cabinets, does Cameron really think that another measure is needed?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Carnyx said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Plain packs, look we're doing something.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30926973

    Mmm. Tories in London copying SNP in Edinburgh, again, all of a sudden.

    Have sales dropped in Scotland since the 'new' measure?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,779


    The revolver's been decommissioned and Charlie Kennedy's drunk the whisky.

    Otherwise ..........

    ...and because all the pretenders to the throne would like Clegg to take the full rap for this one.
    Indeed, and cheap jibes about Charles Kennedy notwithstanding, Nick Clegg's position is analogous to that of Gordon Brown in 2010 and John Major in 1997 in that by giving the elctorate the chance to kick him personally in the ballot box (so to speak), he gives the Party a chance to rebuild and move on.

    How and whether the Party is able to do that is another matter. I do think Clegg will go after the elction whatever happens and while Tim Farron is favourite to take over, it's not a one-horse race. I do wonder whether Tom Brake may be a viable option.

    I detect no appetite within the Party for a continuation of Coalition - it's been a salient lesson about getting what you wish for.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    I've backed outsiders Sheffield United in tonight's match against Tottenham. Hoping for a miracle:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/football/event?id=27342544
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Cameron really think that another measure is needed?

    Nanny knows best
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,598
    edited January 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    Carnyx said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Plain packs, look we're doing something.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30926973

    Mmm. Tories in London copying SNP in Edinburgh, again, all of a sudden.

    Have sales dropped in Scotland since the 'new' measure?
    No legislation passed yet - so can't answer. But the sales did drop in Australia as I undertand it.

    The news today did surprise me as the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Spokesperson for Health (sic), Mr Carlaw, tried to [edit] do down the initiative at Holyrood by using evidence from the tobacco and retail industry.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,284
    edited January 2015
    stodge said:


    The revolver's been decommissioned and Charlie Kennedy's drunk the whisky.

    Otherwise ..........

    ...and because all the pretenders to the throne would like Clegg to take the full rap for this one.
    Indeed, and cheap jibes about Charles Kennedy notwithstanding, Nick Clegg's position is analogous to that of Gordon Brown in 2010 and John Major in 1997 in that by giving the elctorate the chance to kick him personally in the ballot box (so to speak), he gives the Party a chance to rebuild and move on.

    How and whether the Party is able to do that is another matter. I do think Clegg will go after the elction whatever happens and while Tim Farron is favourite to take over, it's not a one-horse race. I do wonder whether Tom Brake may be a viable option.

    I detect no appetite within the Party for a continuation of Coalition - it's been a salient lesson about getting what you wish for.
    Ouch, Mr Stodge.

    As a (former?????) LD voter (and sometime Lib activist) I thought Kennedy did a good job, and perchance could still do so!

    I do wish, though, that the LD management wouldn't give the impression of marching resolutely and bravely towards the guns, come what may. I know Jo Grimond said that "when in doubt, march towards the sound of gunfire", but this is getting ridiculous.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Did a couple of searches on Google, which threw up contradictory headlines.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/c4016952-0d4a-11e4-bcb2-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3PUQVvllv

    Not one of the FT's best bits of writing, the stats do look 'interesting'.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited January 2015
    @dr_spyn
    I am not sure, but it would have went through anytime this parliament on more or less a nod (there would have been a few dissenting voices of course)
    Why now? Cameron will say that it was intentional as being an uncontentious issue it could be left to later.
    By happy coincidence, it also kept the tobacco companies "onside" till it was too late.
    (the same happy coincedence that avoided proper financial scrutiny of the academies budget)

    edit:- free schools, the ONS are not impressed.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    maaarsh said:

    Jane Ellison looks and sounds like she's been photo copied from the New Labour playbook.

    So many of the government do.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,554
    Sean_F said:

    maaarsh said:

    Jane Ellison looks and sounds like she's been photo copied from the New Labour playbook.

    So many of the government do.
    She looked positively flushed announcing this latest triumph of the Tory civil liberties agenda.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Good evening, everyone.

    Plain packs seems a bit puritanical to me.

    Cover up breasts, Mohammed, cigarettes, and don't be mean on Twitter or the rozzers might come for you. It's not great for general freedom of expression.
  • Regarding Wales, you are forgetting about the UKIP factor. In the ITV Wales poll UKIP were on I think 20%. Now bearing in mind that they are weak in areas like Gwynedd and Ceredigion then they must be doing better in other parts of Wales. In the Euros, UKIP topped the poll in Conwy, Flintshire, Denbighshire, Wrexham, Powys and the Vale of Glamorgan (and came a close second in Newport and Pembrokeshire)

    I don't expect UKIP to win any seats but they could lead to some surprise results for other parties. One I have been keeping my eye on is Vale of Clwyd. This consists of Rhyl and Prestatyn on the coast and Denbigh and some rural bits inland. Last time Lab had 15k votes to Con's 12.5k. Now Rhyl definitely looks to me like the sort of place where I would expect UKIP to do well. If they hurt Labour more in Rhyl than they do the Tories in the inland wards then maybe Cons could have a surprise gain against the trend.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    New thread.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    The SNP's record on Health spending and it's "rationale" for voting on English matters:

    Whether or not the New Labour government made a mistake by expanding private provision in the NHS, it did so at the same time as it dramatically increased public funding. As for the alleged link back to Scottish health spending, while total block grants from Whitehall are indeed connected to overall English public service spending, Holyrood has sweeping autonomy over where the money goes. How has this autonomy been used? To institute rather less protection for health within the overall budget than has been provided in England.

    The whole argument about health, then, is a flimsy pretext for signalling the SNP’s willingness – eagerness even – to get stuck in to the parliamentary powerplay that will follow the indecisive election that’s now widely predicted for May......

    Even if the result is less dramatic, there is every chance that the SNP is about to acquire unprecedented clout over London. This week it has signalled that whatever leverage it can grab, will be deployed ruthlessly


    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jan/21/guardian-view-snp-westminster-nicola-sturgeon-flexes-muscles
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