Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.
I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.
In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.
Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
If I was Bobby J. , Suella, Priti or any other right wing loon I would throw my hat in with Nigel independently of the Conservative Party, nestle down as a landslide Reform MP and wait patiently for the Grim Reaper to do do his work. Suella or Honest Bob as a Reform PM would be a comfortable fit I would have thought.
Has to be the economy. The NI rises, the borrowing, the size of the state. If the Cons are going to have any chance of regaining a significant position in UK politics (they will of course, but when is the question) then they have to ignore the fluff and focus on what all right (small "r") thinking Conservatives believe is the most important issue facing our country, now and always. Which is the economy. And, in a nod to Reform/immigration, the per capita economy.
Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.
I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.
In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.
Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
If I was Bobby J. , Suella, Priti or any other right wing loon I would throw my hat in with Nigel independently of the Conservative Party, nestle down as a landslide Reform MP and wait patiently for the Grim Reaper to do do his work. Suella or Honest Bob as a Reform PM would be a comfortable fit I would have thought.
Has to be the economy. The NI rises, the borrowing, the size of the state. If the Cons are going to have any chance of regaining a significant position in UK politics (they will of course, but when is the question) then they have to ignore the fluff and focus on what all right (small "r") thinking Conservatives believe is the most important issue facing our country, now and always. Which is the economy. And, in a nod to Reform/immigration, the per capita economy.
Totally agree. And yesterday was an opportunity for the Tories to create a space between themselves and Reform. They really should have taken it.
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
Boris isn't an MP.
Nor, in his early 60's..... mid by the time of the next GE ...... is any constituency likely to select him. This isn't the USA.
Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.
I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.
In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.
Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
Was, most Tory MPs would likely back PR to keep their seats if polls like this continued and PR also is now Starmer’s best chance of staying PM
Forget it.
There's no way PR could be introduced without a manifesto commitment to it or at least a referendum on it. It might possibly emerge out of a coalition negotiation if Liberals are involved but again that wont happen before 2028.
Hmmmm..... I'm not so sure. Note that Boris Johnson unilaterally changed the electoral system for Mayors by a simple Order in Council - not even a Parliamentary debate. I hope all the PR merchants will remember that technical approach the next time local government is being "reformed".
Can you explain what happened that was done by Order in Council?
I thought that the Electoral System for Mayors change to FPTP was done in the Electoral Reform Act 2022.
It was fishy and imo self-serving - and the reasons given ("Its too complicated and difficult - Oh ! Oh ! Oh!) are transparently baloney, and makes Mayors more likely to be elected by a partisan block with fewer votes. But aiui the change was via Parliament.
Unless there is a major mea culpa event then they really are done as an electoral force.
What should they apologise for?
Badenoch?
Truss?
BoZo?
Brexit?
All of the above?
As usual you are focused far too narrowly on your own totems.
You are listing symptoms of the disease, not the disease itself. The Conservative and Unionist Party stopped being either conservative or unionist. It launched into economic radicalism without a clear vision of what that was or how to drive it, and scrapped the Union in the process.
What the party needs to do is go Back to Basics. A dynamic, entrepreneurial economy where business and people invest so that we all get richer. Low taxes, low intervention, a strong safety net combined with a "pick yourself up off the floor" approach. Go out there telling people how we can reform Britain by finding our ways back to the feelgood days of the 80s.
Along the way they will point out their failings of the recent past and successfully bat them into "done" category because they've clearly moved on. If all you do is say "we're sorry about Truss" you don't change the narrative.
The problem is that the Tories can't do this because they have forgotten who they are and what they believe in. Badenoch sat in her cupboard yesterday spitting bile about Brexit betrayals because that's genuinely what she thinks - and genuinely thinks thats what the voters think.
The reality of Tory history is different. I don't think it is possible to point out with actual figures any period recently (since WWII?) when the Tories have over a sustained period (more than a year or so) actually cut the real total of State Total Managed Expenditure.
We had a Tory government 11 months ago. Total Managed Expenditure (ie state) was £45,000 per household in 2024-5, at about 1.3 trillion and over 44% of GDP.
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico · 3m What is the Tory floor? Well, they got under 9% at the 2019 European elections. So there's probably no guarantee their floor is higher than that.
Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.
I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.
In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.
Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
Was, most Tory MPs would likely back PR to keep their seats if polls like this continued and PR also is now Starmer’s best chance of staying PM
Forget it.
There's no way PR could be introduced without a manifesto commitment to it or at least a referendum on it. It might possibly emerge out of a coalition negotiation if Liberals are involved but again that wont happen before 2028.
Hmmmm..... I'm not so sure. Note that Boris Johnson unilaterally changed the electoral system for Mayors by a simple Order in Council - not even a Parliamentary debate. I hope all the PR merchants will remember that technical approach the next time local government is being "reformed".
Can you explain what happened that was done by Order in Council?
I thought that the Electoral System for Mayors change to FPTP was done in the Electoral Reform Act 2022.
It was fishy and imo self-serving - and the reasons given ("Its too complicated and difficult - Oh ! Oh ! Oh!) are transparently baloney, and makes Mayors more likely to be elected by a partisan block with fewer votes. But aiui the change was via Parliament.
What have I missed?
Elections Act 2022, but yes. The switch to FPTP was done by Parliament.
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
Boris isn't an MP.
Nor, in his early 60's..... mid by the time of the next GE ...... is any constituency likely to select him. This isn't the USA.
I think he has a lot of fans in the Conservative Party. I'm willing to bet he'll be easily selected as a candidate.
I seem to remember seeing a poll where the members wanted Boris instead of either Truss or Sunak at the time of the last leadership election.
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
Boris isn't an MP.
Nor, in his early 60's..... mid by the time of the next GE ...... is any constituency likely to select him. This isn't the USA.
I think he has a lot of fans in the Conservative Party. I'm willing to bet he'll be easily selected as a candidate.
I seem to remember seeing a poll where the members wanted Boris instead of either Truss or Sunak at the time of the last leadership election.
He has to get on the CCHQ list of candidates though.
Off thread: from the 'Information is Beautiful' facebook page: thought this might be useful here - how British people interpret adjectives:
Note, regrettably, a tiny sliver of people rank 'appalling' quite highly and another ranks 'awesome' quite low. And the quite large group of people who thought 8/10 was 'perfect'.
I don't think people are right about 'mediocre'. It's a word which tricks you by sounding like 'medium' - but I think it actually should rank lower than 'somewhat bad'.
4 out of 5 was a decent stab back when I was in school at a quiz or whatnot but now 4 out of 5 is regarded in the US (And has been exported round the rest of the world) to somehow mean utterly terrible. When did that happen ?
The MOD have a defined scale ("Probability Yardstick") they link to every day from their Ukraine updates.
Off thread: from the 'Information is Beautiful' facebook page: thought this might be useful here - how British people interpret adjectives:
Note, regrettably, a tiny sliver of people rank 'appalling' quite highly and another ranks 'awesome' quite low. And the quite large group of people who thought 8/10 was 'perfect'.
I don't think people are right about 'mediocre'. It's a word which tricks you by sounding like 'medium' - but I think it actually should rank lower than 'somewhat bad'.
I need to see where 'Truss' fits on there, as in, "that was a bit Truss, wasn't it?" and, indeed, 'Tory', as in, "it's all gone a bit Tory".
Agree on mediocre, nowadays it's a polite way of saying pretty poor.
It is worrying that 'perfect' is assessed, by many, to be some way below perfect!
ETA: Demonstrates the problems with 0-10 or similar scales, as often seen in research. Most people are reluctant to score anything at either extreme.
Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.
I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.
In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.
Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
Was, most Tory MPs would likely back PR to keep their seats if polls like this continued and PR also is now Starmer’s best chance of staying PM
Forget it.
There's no way PR could be introduced without a manifesto commitment to it or at least a referendum on it. It might possibly emerge out of a coalition negotiation if Liberals are involved but again that wont happen before 2028.
Hmmmm..... I'm not so sure. Note that Boris Johnson unilaterally changed the electoral system for Mayors by a simple Order in Council - not even a Parliamentary debate. I hope all the PR merchants will remember that technical approach the next time local government is being "reformed".
Can you explain what happened that was done by Order in Council?
I thought that the Electoral System for Mayors change to FPTP was done in the Electoral Reform Act 2022.
It was fishy and imo self-serving - and the reasons given ("Its too complicated and difficult - Oh ! Oh ! Oh!) are transparently baloney, and makes Mayors more likely to be elected by a partisan block with fewer votes. But aiui the change was via Parliament.
What have I missed?
In which case, Matt, I bow to your superior judgement and knowledge of the issue - I knew that it was done on the hoof, quickly, and for blatantly partisan reasons, but I hadn't realised that legislation was used to implement the changes. Sorry if I misled anyone.
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
Don't you realise the man who only yesterday was writing a homo erotic fantasy about Starmer is so irrelevant he does not save your party? In fact I would suggest he was the architect of your collapse.
Boris takes the Cons to 26% with MiC with Reform on 23% and Labour 22%. He wins back centrist swing voters Kemi can’t
If Johnson became Tory leader all of Farage's Christmases come at once. Farage wouldn't stop banging on about the Boriswave. Reform and Farage are a one trick pony, and Johnson would be that trick.
A Boris return is not as predictable as that. Support for Reform is understandable but not especially rational. Support for New Boris would be on exactly the same terms - not especially rational. More rational voters have already dismissed both Reform and the Tories as serious options. This is not to dismiss them of course; rational voters mostly didn't vote for Trump.
Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.
I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.
In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.
Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
Was, most Tory MPs would likely back PR to keep their seats if polls like this continued and PR also is now Starmer’s best chance of staying PM
Forget it.
There's no way PR could be introduced without a manifesto commitment to it or at least a referendum on it. It might possibly emerge out of a coalition negotiation if Liberals are involved but again that wont happen before 2028.
Hmmmm..... I'm not so sure. Note that Boris Johnson unilaterally changed the electoral system for Mayors by a simple Order in Council - not even a Parliamentary debate. I hope all the PR merchants will remember that technical approach the next time local government is being "reformed".
Can you explain what happened that was done by Order in Council?
I thought that the Electoral System for Mayors change to FPTP was done in the Electoral Reform Act 2022.
It was fishy and imo self-serving - and the reasons given ("Its too complicated and difficult - Oh ! Oh ! Oh!) are transparently baloney, and makes Mayors more likely to be elected by a partisan block with fewer votes. But aiui the change was via Parliament.
What have I missed?
In which case, Matt, I bow to your superior judgement and knowledge of the issue - I knew that it was done on the hoof, quickly, and for blatantly partisan reasons, but I hadn't realised that legislation was used to implement the changes. Sorry if I misled anyone.
Thanks. I wasn't sure, and I went to check. I did wonder if there was something else he had done that I had not noticed !
I'm not sure how Proroguing of Parliament was done when Bojo was trying to stifle debate, and I did have a certain sympathy for the action there on the basis that the Opposition were perhaps being even more cynical than he was.
That was a Privy Council thing, maybe - "by the Monarch on advice of the Prime Minister".
Farage will not be around for ever and he shows absolutely no interest in sharing the limelight with anyone else.
I would not write the Tories' obituary just yet
Reform = Farage is a similar equation to the SNP = Salmond. There are structural reasons for their success beyond the appeal of the leader.
Who is Farage's Sturgeon?
There isn't a Sturgeon (ie generally sane, as flawed as the rest of us but politically deft, grounded and seasoned by decades of political grind) in Reform, because Farage's ego can't cope with any competition. The closest he'll ever get would be a spiv like Tice. Who should stick to frittering away the dosh his dad left him and floozying around
Off thread: from the 'Information is Beautiful' facebook page: thought this might be useful here - how British people interpret adjectives:
Note, regrettably, a tiny sliver of people rank 'appalling' quite highly and another ranks 'awesome' quite low. And the quite large group of people who thought 8/10 was 'perfect'.
I don't think people are right about 'mediocre'. It's a word which tricks you by sounding like 'medium' - but I think it actually should rank lower than 'somewhat bad'.
I need to see where 'Truss' fits on there, as in, "that was a bit Truss, wasn't it?" and, indeed, 'Tory', as in, "it's all gone a bit Tory".
Agree on mediocre, nowadays it's a polite way of saying pretty poor.
It is worrying that 'perfect' is assessed, by many, to be some way below perfect!
ETA: Demonstrates the problems with 0-10 or similar scales, as often seen in research. Most people are reluctant to score anything at either extreme.
Presumably all those football commentators who think that players regularly "give 110%" or similar...
Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.
I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.
In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.
Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
Was, most Tory MPs would likely back PR to keep their seats if polls like this continued and PR also is now Starmer’s best chance of staying PM
Forget it.
There's no way PR could be introduced without a manifesto commitment to it or at least a referendum on it. It might possibly emerge out of a coalition negotiation if Liberals are involved but again that wont happen before 2028.
Hmmmm..... I'm not so sure. Note that Boris Johnson unilaterally changed the electoral system for Mayors by a simple Order in Council - not even a Parliamentary debate. I hope all the PR merchants will remember that technical approach the next time local government is being "reformed".
Can you explain what happened that was done by Order in Council?
I thought that the Electoral System for Mayors change to FPTP was done in the Electoral Reform Act 2022.
It was fishy and imo self-serving - and the reasons given ("Its too complicated and difficult - Oh ! Oh ! Oh!) are transparently baloney, and makes Mayors more likely to be elected by a partisan block with fewer votes. But aiui the change was via Parliament.
What have I missed?
Indeed, the change to the election of London Mayor in 2024 was done without a referendum (though I believe, unless someone can tell me otherwise it was in the 2019 Conservative manifesto) and that set a precedent.
The 2022 Elections Act replaced the supplementary vote system for choosing the Mayor with FPTP.
IF a future Government put in its manifesto a commitment to change the electoral system for the London Mayoral election to STV or whatever, I see no issue with that going through Parliament without a referendum if there's a majority in the Commons.
Changes at all elections up to but NOT including Westminster elections could go through via legislation - I do think there's a difference with General Elections and can see the argument for a referendum for changing the voting system for those.
Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.
I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.
In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.
Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
If I was Bobby J. , Suella, Priti or any other right wing loon I would throw my hat in with Nigel independently of the Conservative Party, nestle down as a landslide Reform MP and wait patiently for the Grim Reaper to do do his work. Suella or Honest Bob as a Reform PM would be a comfortable fit I would have thought.
Has to be the economy. The NI rises, the borrowing, the size of the state. If the Cons are going to have any chance of regaining a significant position in UK politics (they will of course, but when is the question) then they have to ignore the fluff and focus on what all right (small "r") thinking Conservatives believe is the most important issue facing our country, now and always. Which is the economy. And, in a nod to Reform/immigration, the per capita economy.
But the Tories have gone down the same rabbit hole as many on the left, far more worried and exercised about their own ideological obsessions such that you wonder how much they care about the economy, housing, public services and the rest at all?
It looks to me like the Tories are going to be replaced by Reform as the UK's right wing political option. Not a welcome prospect for somebody like me who, whilst medically unable to vote for them, has never found them utterly repellent in government (with the exception of Johnson, Truss, Thatcher, and a fair bit of Sunak, Major and Cameron).
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
Don't you realise the man who only yesterday was writing a homo erotic fantasy about Starmer is so irrelevant he does not save your party? In fact I would suggest he was the architect of your collapse.
Boris takes the Cons to 26% with MiC with Reform on 23% and Labour 22%. He wins back centrist swing voters Kemi can’t
If Johnson became Tory leader all of Farage's Christmases come at once. Farage wouldn't stop banging on about the Boriswave. Reform and Farage are a one trick pony, and Johnson would be that trick.
A Boris return is not as predictable as that. Support for Reform is understandable but not especially rational. Support for New Boris would be on exactly the same terms - not especially rational. More rational voters have already dismissed both Reform and the Tories as serious options. This is not to dismiss them of course; rational voters mostly didn't vote for Trump.
Yes it’s entirely unpredictable. Boris coexisting with Farage might split the opposition and let Starmer win (without or without the LibDems), it might end up with Farage cleaning up the “red wall” while Boris gets 200 seats, or it might end up with Boris conquering all.
It definitely wouldn’t improve Farage’s score though. From that point of view he’d be doing a public service.
Off thread: from the 'Information is Beautiful' facebook page: thought this might be useful here - how British people interpret adjectives:
Note, regrettably, a tiny sliver of people rank 'appalling' quite highly and another ranks 'awesome' quite low. And the quite large group of people who thought 8/10 was 'perfect'.
I don't think people are right about 'mediocre'. It's a word which tricks you by sounding like 'medium' - but I think it actually should rank lower than 'somewhat bad'.
I need to see where 'Truss' fits on there, as in, "that was a bit Truss, wasn't it?" and, indeed, 'Tory', as in, "it's all gone a bit Tory".
Agree on mediocre, nowadays it's a polite way of saying pretty poor.
It is worrying that 'perfect' is assessed, by many, to be some way below perfect!
ETA: Demonstrates the problems with 0-10 or similar scales, as often seen in research. Most people are reluctant to score anything at either extreme.
Presumably all those football commentators who think that players regularly "give 110%" or similar...
If you go on the bus it tells you how many passengers are allowed on it, sitting and standing, and if a bus came along with that many people on it, you would reasonably describe it as 100% full. Yet it remains possible to squeeze extra people on. /Cantona mode off>
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Ed Davey already stole their clothes on relatability.
The further problem is not only that there really is no one on the Tory benches who fits the bill, not to mention that 12 MPs- 10% of the total- have majorities of less than 1000, and 3 have majorities of less than 100, and so the workload on those back benchers just to hold their seats is now pretty severe.
Then there are so many are Knights of the Shire who are now very long in the tooth: Roger Gale is 81, Christopher Chope is 78, David Davis is 76, Martin Vickers is 74, as is Edward Leigh, Julian Lewis is 73, Geoffrey Clifton Brown is 72, IDS is 71, and there is a similar cadre of the over sixties.
Then there are those, like Priti Patel or Mark Francois, who have, for various reasons, gone beyond the Pale or are at best semi-detached.
Although inexperience is no bar to party leadership, those younger Tories in their first or second Parliament are not particularly compelling either. Identikit Management Consultants are not going to set the heather on fire. It is hard not to conclude that there is no great Tory leader waiting to take the reins.
Regarding PR, parliament can do whatever it wants. There is no legal or constitutional barrier in parliament changing the franchise or the way that votes of that franchise are collated.
So its a political question, not a legal or ethical one.
Farage has spoken repeatedly in favour of PR, Labour have a significant proportion of their back benches in support, LDs support as do Plaid and the Greens. If the government wanted to bring it in, mathematically they could get it passed.
Politically though? Tricky. I would be gobsmacked.
Farage will not be around for ever and he shows absolutely no interest in sharing the limelight with anyone else.
I would not write the Tories' obituary just yet
Reform = Farage is a similar equation to the SNP = Salmond. There are structural reasons for their success beyond the appeal of the leader.
Who is Farage's Sturgeon?
There isn't a Sturgeon (ie generally sane, as flawed as the rest of us but politically deft, grounded and seasoned by decades of political grind) in Reform, because Farage's ego can't cope with any competition. The closest he'll ever get would be a spiv like Tice. Who should stick to frittering away the dosh his dad left him and floozying around
They really are a Farage vehicle and this is a big weakness. Underneath the 'smooth as a silk cut' frontman there's an absolute menagerie.
Off thread: from the 'Information is Beautiful' facebook page: thought this might be useful here - how British people interpret adjectives:
Note, regrettably, a tiny sliver of people rank 'appalling' quite highly and another ranks 'awesome' quite low. And the quite large group of people who thought 8/10 was 'perfect'.
I don't think people are right about 'mediocre'. It's a word which tricks you by sounding like 'medium' - but I think it actually should rank lower than 'somewhat bad'.
I need to see where 'Truss' fits on there, as in, "that was a bit Truss, wasn't it?" and, indeed, 'Tory', as in, "it's all gone a bit Tory".
Agree on mediocre, nowadays it's a polite way of saying pretty poor.
It is worrying that 'perfect' is assessed, by many, to be some way below perfect!
ETA: Demonstrates the problems with 0-10 or similar scales, as often seen in research. Most people are reluctant to score anything at either extreme.
With visual analogue scales (getting the participant to mark on a line rather than giving a score from 0-10), I've used arctanh transformations to adjust for that reluctance to score anything at either extreme. They worked quite well to produce something more Normally distributed.
Farage will not be around for ever and he shows absolutely no interest in sharing the limelight with anyone else.
I would not write the Tories' obituary just yet
People were doing that in the 1840s, 1850s and early 1860s…
When they had fallen out over catholic emancipation and protectionism, and backed the corn laws for ideological rather than pragmatic reasons. Their path back to power was to, eventually, recognise their mistake and perform a 180-degree policy change....
I like Kemi but it's all but over for her. The party needs someone of the Boris level of charisma but not him. F*** knows who that could be. Since they'd struggle to win any by-election it needs to be on of the existing MPs. I don't see it. For me it means I'd vote Reform with some reluctance.
Regarding PR, parliament can do whatever it wants. There is no legal or constitutional barrier in parliament changing the franchise or the way that votes of that franchise are collated.
So its a political question, not a legal or ethical one.
Farage has spoken repeatedly in favour of PR, Labour have a significant proportion of their back benches in support, LDs support as do Plaid and the Greens. If the government wanted to bring it in, mathematically they could get it passed.
Politically though? Tricky. I would be gobsmacked.
It would be pitched as “cheating”
By whom? The Press, the public, academia, industry etc etc etc are all convinced of the virtues of PR. The right wing press would back it because of the ReformUK policy on the matter, and it would be sold as Parliament finally waking up to the realities of the modern world. Not a difficult message to sell at the moment.
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
Boris isn't an MP.
Nor, in his early 60's..... mid by the time of the next GE ...... is any constituency likely to select him. This isn't the USA.
I think he has a lot of fans in the Conservative Party. I'm willing to bet he'll be easily selected as a candidate.
I seem to remember seeing a poll where the members wanted Boris instead of either Truss or Sunak at the time of the last leadership election.
He has to get on the CCHQ list of candidates though.
And then there is the little matter of actually being elected. There are maybe 3 or 4 seats which could be considered safe for the Tories at this point.
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Ed Davey already stole their clothes on relatability.
The further problem is not only that there really is no one on the Tory benches who fits the bill, not to mention that 12 MPs- 10% of the total- have majorities of less than 1000, and 3 have majorities of less than 100, and so the workload on those back benchers just to hold their seats is now pretty severe.
Then there are so many are Knights of the Shire who are now very long in the tooth: Roger Gale is 81, Christopher Chope is 78, David Davis is 76, Martin Vickers is 74, as is Edward Leigh, Julian Lewis is 73, Geoffrey Clifton Brown is 72, IDS is 71, and there is a similar cadre of the over sixties.
Then there are those, like Priti Patel or Mark Francois, who have, for various reasons, gone beyond the Pale or are at best semi-detached.
Although inexperience is no bar to party leadership, those younger Tories in their first or second Parliament are not particularly compelling either. Identikit Management Consultants are not going to set the heather on fire. It is hard not to conclude that there is no great Tory leader waiting to take the reins.
Kemi Badenoch might be the best they have got.
To be fair (and this is getting to be a habit), they still have 121 MPs and over 4,400 Councillors so they are bigger than any other Opposition party both in terms of national and local representation.
The 2026 local elections are more likely to be a big test for Labour (London and the Mets) but the Conservatives will have seats to defend and that will include in those new Shadow authorities up for election. The abolition of some District Councils in 2027 will reduce the Conservative local base further (it will also reduce the LD base).
Could the LDs or Reform have more local councils than the Conservatives by 2027? You couldn't rule it out though it's worth mentioning Reform still have fewer Councillors than the Greens (though that may change via defections over time).
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Ed Davey already stole their clothes on relatability.
The further problem is not only that there really is no one on the Tory benches who fits the bill, not to mention that 12 MPs- 10% of the total- have majorities of less than 1000, and 3 have majorities of less than 100, and so the workload on those back benchers just to hold their seats is now pretty severe.
Then there are so many are Knights of the Shire who are now very long in the tooth: Roger Gale is 81, Christopher Chope is 78, David Davis is 76, Martin Vickers is 74, as is Edward Leigh, Julian Lewis is 73, Geoffrey Clifton Brown is 72, IDS is 71, and there is a similar cadre of the over sixties.
Then there are those, like Priti Patel or Mark Francois, who have, for various reasons, gone beyond the Pale or are at best semi-detached.
Although inexperience is no bar to party leadership, those younger Tories in their first or second Parliament are not particularly compelling either. Identikit Management Consultants are not going to set the heather on fire. It is hard not to conclude that there is no great Tory leader waiting to take the reins.
Kemi Badenoch might be the best they have got.
She'll be out next year so there isn't long for someone to catch fire and emerge.
Farage will not be around for ever and he shows absolutely no interest in sharing the limelight with anyone else.
I would not write the Tories' obituary just yet
Reform = Farage is a similar equation to the SNP = Salmond. There are structural reasons for their success beyond the appeal of the leader.
Who is Farage's Sturgeon?
There isn't a Sturgeon (ie generally sane, as flawed as the rest of us but politically deft, grounded and seasoned by decades of political grind) in Reform, because Farage's ego can't cope with any competition. The closest he'll ever get would be a spiv like Tice. Who should stick to frittering away the dosh his dad left him and floozying around
They really are a Farage vehicle and this is a big weakness. Underneath the 'smooth as a silk cut' frontman there's an absolute menagerie.
Yeah, the Fukkers don't exactly have a deep bench. It doesn't really matter while NF is calling the shots but if he's felled or incapacitated by his lifestyle choices then they are fucked. He's the Tito of Essex and East Anglia.
Apparently the FA Cup final and Eurovision Song Contest have only been on the same day twice in the last decade or so
Sir Keir Starmer is looking forward to Eurovision. Having just returned from a European summit in Albania, the prime minister will sit down on Saturday with his family for what has become something of a tradition. “That will be a must,” he says. “It’s always the same, the FA Cup, then Eurovision. All the family watch it.”
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Ed Davey already stole their clothes on relatability.
The further problem is not only that there really is no one on the Tory benches who fits the bill, not to mention that 12 MPs- 10% of the total- have majorities of less than 1000, and 3 have majorities of less than 100, and so the workload on those back benchers just to hold their seats is now pretty severe.
Then there are so many are Knights of the Shire who are now very long in the tooth: Roger Gale is 81, Christopher Chope is 78, David Davis is 76, Martin Vickers is 74, as is Edward Leigh, Julian Lewis is 73, Geoffrey Clifton Brown is 72, IDS is 71, and there is a similar cadre of the over sixties.
Then there are those, like Priti Patel or Mark Francois, who have, for various reasons, gone beyond the Pale or are at best semi-detached.
Although inexperience is no bar to party leadership, those younger Tories in their first or second Parliament are not particularly compelling either. Identikit Management Consultants are not going to set the heather on fire. It is hard not to conclude that there is no great Tory leader waiting to take the reins.
Kemi Badenoch might be the best they have got.
Francois for leader? LOL though possibly relatable. Ed Davey isn't relatable to the menopausal males whose infatuation has moved from Boris to Farage.
Priti was on Today this morning after Kevin McCarthy, they seemed to have had a wager on who could be the most awkward interviewee
Historically the KGB did exactly what he said (is going to say) during the Cold War.
At the end of the Cold War, all kinds of anti movements, across the Western world, collapsed when major chunks of their funding evaporated.
Given that Putin looks back on those days as the Cozy Goode Olde Days….
Not to mention the big fat elephants in the room that loved Russian oligarch money, went to their parties and awarded them honours. Is the Tory party about to collapse?
Whilst the conversation seems to have turned towards PR (sorry!) one or two of you might be interested in this little snippet - of the 1,087 seats contested at the last local elections, 32 had results where five candidates all got over 10% of the vote - and in two seats, six candidates got over 10% of the vote.
Surely a RefCon merger must be on the cards of it goes lower.
I think the problem for the Tories is that Kemi, HY et al still believe that anyone gives a flying what they think. Natural party of government and all that.
In reality the Tories are now Reform, leaving the rump Tories as the SDP after the merger with the Liberals. "We're still here" says Kemi Owen. "We don't care" says everyone else.
Even rump SDP after the LDs were formed polled well below the 16% today's Yougov has the Tories on
Keep banging that drum. Ignore the trend. Ignore the continuing slide into oblivion. Just assume this poll will be the one at the GE in 4 years time and therefore actually Kemi will be in the driving seat actually.
Mewanwhile, in reality, your choice is stay and try to become on of the 5 Tory MPs who survive the next election so that you can become leader and rebuild from the ashes, or decide when you join Reform and leave the rump behind.
Of course PR would still give 100 Tory MPs. I would join neither Reform nor the LDs, the former too right for me, the latter too liberal left
But *we don't have PR and your party is ideologically opposed to PR*
Was, most Tory MPs would likely back PR to keep their seats if polls like this continued and PR also is now Starmer’s best chance of staying PM
Forget it.
There's no way PR could be introduced without a manifesto commitment to it or at least a referendum on it. It might possibly emerge out of a coalition negotiation if Liberals are involved but again that wont happen before 2028.
Hmmmm..... I'm not so sure. Note that Boris Johnson unilaterally changed the electoral system for Mayors by a simple Order in Council - not even a Parliamentary debate. I hope all the PR merchants will remember that technical approach the next time local government is being "reformed".
Can you explain what happened that was done by Order in Council?
I thought that the Electoral System for Mayors change to FPTP was done in the Electoral Reform Act 2022.
It was fishy and imo self-serving - and the reasons given ("Its too complicated and difficult - Oh ! Oh ! Oh!) are transparently baloney, and makes Mayors more likely to be elected by a partisan block with fewer votes. But aiui the change was via Parliament.
What have I missed?
Indeed, the change to the election of London Mayor in 2024 was done without a referendum (though I believe, unless someone can tell me otherwise it was in the 2019 Conservative manifesto) and that set a precedent.
The 2022 Elections Act replaced the supplementary vote system for choosing the Mayor with FPTP.
IF a future Government put in its manifesto a commitment to change the electoral system for the London Mayoral election to STV or whatever, I see no issue with that going through Parliament without a referendum if there's a majority in the Commons.
Changes at all elections up to but NOT including Westminster elections could go through via legislation - I do think there's a difference with General Elections and can see the argument for a referendum for changing the voting system for those.
Numerous significant changes to the electoral system, most notably changes in suffrage, were made over multiple decades without referendums, including the Reform Act 1867, the Representation of the People Act 1884, the Representation of the People Act 1918, the Representation of the People Act 1948, the Representation of the People Act 1969 and the House of Lords Act 1999. The idea that one should have referendums on such issues is a fairly novel and inconsistently applied notion.
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Ed Davey already stole their clothes on relatability.
The further problem is not only that there really is no one on the Tory benches who fits the bill, not to mention that 12 MPs- 10% of the total- have majorities of less than 1000, and 3 have majorities of less than 100, and so the workload on those back benchers just to hold their seats is now pretty severe.
Then there are so many are Knights of the Shire who are now very long in the tooth: Roger Gale is 81, Christopher Chope is 78, David Davis is 76, Martin Vickers is 74, as is Edward Leigh, Julian Lewis is 73, Geoffrey Clifton Brown is 72, IDS is 71, and there is a similar cadre of the over sixties.
Then there are those, like Priti Patel or Mark Francois, who have, for various reasons, gone beyond the Pale or are at best semi-detached.
Although inexperience is no bar to party leadership, those younger Tories in their first or second Parliament are not particularly compelling either. Identikit Management Consultants are not going to set the heather on fire. It is hard not to conclude that there is no great Tory leader waiting to take the reins.
Kemi Badenoch might be the best they have got.
She'll be out next year so there isn't long for someone to catch fire and emerge.
Farage will not be around for ever and he shows absolutely no interest in sharing the limelight with anyone else.
I would not write the Tories' obituary just yet
Reform = Farage is a similar equation to the SNP = Salmond. There are structural reasons for their success beyond the appeal of the leader.
Who is Farage's Sturgeon?
There isn't a Sturgeon (ie generally sane, as flawed as the rest of us but politically deft, grounded and seasoned by decades of political grind) in Reform, because Farage's ego can't cope with any competition. The closest he'll ever get would be a spiv like Tice. Who should stick to frittering away the dosh his dad left him and floozying around
They really are a Farage vehicle and this is a big weakness. Underneath the 'smooth as a silk cut' frontman there's an absolute menagerie.
Yeah, the Fukkers don't exactly have a deep bench. It doesn't really matter while NF is calling the shots but if he's felled or incapacitated by his lifestyle choices then they are fucked. He's the Tito of Essex and East Anglia.
... and look what happened to Yugoslavia after Tito.
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Ed Davey already stole their clothes on relatability.
The further problem is not only that there really is no one on the Tory benches who fits the bill, not to mention that 12 MPs- 10% of the total- have majorities of less than 1000, and 3 have majorities of less than 100, and so the workload on those back benchers just to hold their seats is now pretty severe.
Then there are so many are Knights of the Shire who are now very long in the tooth: Roger Gale is 81, Christopher Chope is 78, David Davis is 76, Martin Vickers is 74, as is Edward Leigh, Julian Lewis is 73, Geoffrey Clifton Brown is 72, IDS is 71, and there is a similar cadre of the over sixties.
Then there are those, like Priti Patel or Mark Francois, who have, for various reasons, gone beyond the Pale or are at best semi-detached.
Although inexperience is no bar to party leadership, those younger Tories in their first or second Parliament are not particularly compelling either. Identikit Management Consultants are not going to set the heather on fire. It is hard not to conclude that there is no great Tory leader waiting to take the reins.
Kemi Badenoch might be the best they have got.
She'll be out next year so there isn't long for someone to catch fire and emerge.
Apparently the FA Cup final and Eurovision Song Contest have only been on the same day twice in the last decade or so
Sir Keir Starmer is looking forward to Eurovision. Having just returned from a European summit in Albania, the prime minister will sit down on Saturday with his family for what has become something of a tradition. “That will be a must,” he says. “It’s always the same, the FA Cup, then Eurovision. All the family watch it.”
I noticed that. But it needs a probe. What does the data say? If Eurovision is usually a week or two *after* the cup final then SKS has a viable defence. Because he doesn't actually say they watch them on the same day, does he? He could have meant they always sit down and watch the cup final (as a family) and then on a subsequent Saturday they come together for Eurovision. That works. He deserves (and should get) the benefit of the doubt there. Otoh, if Eurovision is often before the cup final, that's damning and we might have a genuine 'gate' on our hands.
People have been waiting for a Big Beast defection to Reform, but a high-profile defection to the Lib Dems might be more significant.
Well, depends on who you think is a big beast on the current benches, Hunt? Andrew Mitchell? Maybe closer in thinking to the Lib Dems, but really tied in to the Conservatives for personal reasons, and have been quite hostile in the past. Of the non-MPs, who moves the dial? Heseltine? Again, hard to see it. Rory Stewart maybe, but he´s a media pundit now, not a politician.
Its kind of ironic that the lack of talent is persuading some Tories that they might defect to RefUK, a party that has even less talent than they do.
Farage will not be around for ever and he shows absolutely no interest in sharing the limelight with anyone else.
I would not write the Tories' obituary just yet
Reform = Farage is a similar equation to the SNP = Salmond. There are structural reasons for their success beyond the appeal of the leader.
Who is Farage's Sturgeon?
There isn't a Sturgeon (ie generally sane, as flawed as the rest of us but politically deft, grounded and seasoned by decades of political grind) in Reform, because Farage's ego can't cope with any competition. The closest he'll ever get would be a spiv like Tice. Who should stick to frittering away the dosh his dad left him and floozying around
Again, this speaks to the rather surprising pig-headed ignorance on the part of so many of our centrist shrewdies. I consume a lot of right of centre media - but I'm not completely unaware of the 'rising stars' within Labour and their supposed merits.
Zia Yusuf is the obvious heir apparent, has been spoken of as such by Farage himself, and Lowe aside (which is a mark against him) is a very impressive performer.
No one is listening right now so focus on fundamentals
Yes, those are actually very hard issues for any party to look at and as you say the time to do it is when no one is looking or listening.
As an example, by 1997, the Conservative party machine was obsolete and had atrophied considerably which contributed to its massive defeat. Reading accounts, comparing it to Mandelson's Labour party operation was like comparing a snail to a Ferrari.
One thing Hague did was to overhaul how the party worked centrally - it's the kind of project which doesn't reap any rewards in the short term but pays off down the lihe so when Cameron became leader, the Conservative Party, as an electoral operation, was in a much better shape compared to that of the Liberal Democrats (still very much in the 1980s and 1990s mindset) and Labour.
The advantage Hague had over Badenoch was the absence of an existential threat - the Conservatives still had moren than three times the number of LD MPs after 1997 - the difference now is 2 LD MPs for every 3 Conservatives and of course Reform....
It looks to me like the Tories are going to be replaced by Reform as the UK's right wing political option. Not a welcome prospect for somebody like me who, whilst medically unable to vote for them, has never found them utterly repellent in government (with the exception of Johnson, Truss, Thatcher, and a fair bit of Sunak, Major and Cameron).
Funny thing is that the literal meanings of the party names are directly contradictory: Conservative or Reform. Preserve or Change. Make your bloody minds up, sheeple!
Farage will not be around for ever and he shows absolutely no interest in sharing the limelight with anyone else.
I would not write the Tories' obituary just yet
Reform = Farage is a similar equation to the SNP = Salmond. There are structural reasons for their success beyond the appeal of the leader.
Who is Farage's Sturgeon?
There isn't a Sturgeon (ie generally sane, as flawed as the rest of us but politically deft, grounded and seasoned by decades of political grind) in Reform, because Farage's ego can't cope with any competition. The closest he'll ever get would be a spiv like Tice. Who should stick to frittering away the dosh his dad left him and floozying around
Again, this speaks to the rather surprising pig-headed ignorance on the part of so many of our centrist shrewdies. I consume a lot of right of centre media - but I'm not completely unaware of the 'rising stars' within Labour and their supposed merits.
Zia Yusuf is the obvious heir apparent, has been spoken of as such by Farage himself, and Lowe aside (which is a mark against him) is a very impressive performer.
I'm rather taken aback to hear that you consume a lot of right of centre media.
No one is listening right now so focus on fundamentals
Yes, those are actually very hard issues for any party to look at and as you say the time to do it is when no one is looking or listening.
As an example, by 1997, the Conservative party machine was obsolete and had atrophied considerably which contributed to its massive defeat. Reading accounts, comparing it to Mandelson's Labour party operation was like comparing a snail to a Ferrari.
One thing Hague did was to overhaul how the party worked centrally - it's the kind of project which doesn't reap any rewards in the short term but pays off down the lihe so when Cameron became leader, the Conservative Party, as an electoral operation, was in a much better shape compared to that of the Liberal Democrats (still very much in the 1980s and 1990s mindset) and Labour.
The advantage Hague had over Badenoch was the absence of an existential threat - the Conservatives still had moren than three times the number of LD MPs after 1997 - the difference now is 2 LD MPs for every 3 Conservatives and of course Reform....
I remember Rory Bremner's portrayal.of Hague as a northern knockabout comedian in the Commons with a pint of beer.
He didn't advance.the Tories a lot, but also did them no harm.
Farage will not be around for ever and he shows absolutely no interest in sharing the limelight with anyone else.
I would not write the Tories' obituary just yet
Reform = Farage is a similar equation to the SNP = Salmond. There are structural reasons for their success beyond the appeal of the leader.
Who is Farage's Sturgeon?
There isn't a Sturgeon (ie generally sane, as flawed as the rest of us but politically deft, grounded and seasoned by decades of political grind) in Reform, because Farage's ego can't cope with any competition. The closest he'll ever get would be a spiv like Tice. Who should stick to frittering away the dosh his dad left him and floozying around
Again, this speaks to the rather surprising pig-headed ignorance on the part of so many of our centrist shrewdies. I consume a lot of right of centre media - but I'm not completely unaware of the 'rising stars' within Labour and their supposed merits.
Zia Yusuf is the obvious heir apparent, has been spoken of as such by Farage himself, and Lowe aside (which is a mark against him) is a very impressive performer.
I'm rather taken aback to hear that you consume a lot of right of centre media.
Apparently the FA Cup final and Eurovision Song Contest have only been on the same day twice in the last decade or so
Sir Keir Starmer is looking forward to Eurovision. Having just returned from a European summit in Albania, the prime minister will sit down on Saturday with his family for what has become something of a tradition. “That will be a must,” he says. “It’s always the same, the FA Cup, then Eurovision. All the family watch it.”
I noticed that. But it needs a probe. What does the data say? If Eurovision is usually a week or two *after* the cup final then SKS has a viable defence. Because he doesn't actually say they watch them on the same day, does he? He could have meant they always sit down and watch the cup final (as a family) and then on a subsequent Saturday they come together for Eurovision. That works. He deserves (and should get) the benefit of the doubt there. Otoh, if Eurovision is often before the cup final, that's damning and we might have a genuine 'gate' on our hands.
I’ll always remember the date and time when this horror dawned on me ! I mean I’ll have to pick up the pieces and go on with my life with the knowledge that Starmer could have fibbed about when he watched Eurovision and the FA Cup !
Omg that’s just so awful and is far worse than partying whilst grannie or granddad were on a ventilator. We need Bozo back that pillar of honesty and public service !
Apparently the FA Cup final and Eurovision Song Contest have only been on the same day twice in the last decade or so
Sir Keir Starmer is looking forward to Eurovision. Having just returned from a European summit in Albania, the prime minister will sit down on Saturday with his family for what has become something of a tradition. “That will be a must,” he says. “It’s always the same, the FA Cup, then Eurovision. All the family watch it.”
I noticed that. But it needs a probe. What does the data say? If Eurovision is usually a week or two *after* the cup final then SKS has a viable defence. Because he doesn't actually say they watch them on the same day, does he? He could have meant they always sit down and watch the cup final (as a family) and then on a subsequent Saturday they come together for Eurovision. That works. He deserves (and should get) the benefit of the doubt there. Otoh, if Eurovision is often before the cup final, that's damning and we might have a genuine 'gate' on our hands.
I do enjoy the Tory changes of leader, that should say below there. But I can't see who would replace Kemi.
As kemi is discovering, in the current climate no choice for leader makes sense, since the voting public don't know and increasingly don't care whether the party is predominantly Reformlite or predominantly One Nationish.
(That it might actually be Conservative in the sense of low spend, self reliance, low tax, paternalist about poorer communities, pro-social housing, culturally conservative about education, opportunity maximised, differing outcomes respected, pro religion, family, traditions, deeply respectful of the working class, mothers and care within the family etc is of course far too much to ask. However, there is a gap in the market).
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Ed Davey already stole their clothes on relatability.
The further problem is not only that there really is no one on the Tory benches who fits the bill, not to mention that 12 MPs- 10% of the total- have majorities of less than 1000, and 3 have majorities of less than 100, and so the workload on those back benchers just to hold their seats is now pretty severe.
Then there are so many are Knights of the Shire who are now very long in the tooth: Roger Gale is 81, Christopher Chope is 78, David Davis is 76, Martin Vickers is 74, as is Edward Leigh, Julian Lewis is 73, Geoffrey Clifton Brown is 72, IDS is 71, and there is a similar cadre of the over sixties.
Then there are those, like Priti Patel or Mark Francois, who have, for various reasons, gone beyond the Pale or are at best semi-detached.
Although inexperience is no bar to party leadership, those younger Tories in their first or second Parliament are not particularly compelling either. Identikit Management Consultants are not going to set the heather on fire. It is hard not to conclude that there is no great Tory leader waiting to take the reins.
Kemi Badenoch might be the best they have got.
She'll be out next year so there isn't long for someone to catch fire and emerge.
It looks to me like the Tories are going to be replaced by Reform as the UK's right wing political option. Not a welcome prospect for somebody like me who, whilst medically unable to vote for them, has never found them utterly repellent in government (with the exception of Johnson, Truss, Thatcher, and a fair bit of Sunak, Major and Cameron).
Funny thing is that the literal meanings of the party names are directly contradictory: Conservative or Reform. Preserve or Change. Make your bloody minds up, sheeple!
Labour is still apt though. Keir is labouring to get his message across.
The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.
But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.
Kemi’s tragic news conference from a cupboard yesterday summed up the sad state of affairs .
Another problem is I can't get the image of her doom scrolling during the Local Election results out of my head.
Culturally relevant (I struggle with it as well) and explains the chronically online political messaging. The Conservatives need a genuinely affable leader who can go round to pubs and garden centres and have a laugh.
Boris who More in Common had taking the Tories to the lead again if he came back
Boris isn't an MP.
Nor, in his early 60's..... mid by the time of the next GE ...... is any constituency likely to select him. This isn't the USA.
I think he has a lot of fans in the Conservative Party. I'm willing to bet he'll be easily selected as a candidate.
I seem to remember seeing a poll where the members wanted Boris instead of either Truss or Sunak at the time of the last leadership election.
He has to get on the CCHQ list of candidates though.
And then there is the little matter of actually being elected. There are maybe 3 or 4 seats which could be considered safe for the Tories at this point.
Reduced to some sui generis rump holdouts in outer London, Buckinghamshire and Hampshire, and I'm not too sure about the Hampshire and Bucks seats with the Lib Dems ahead of them.
Sounds like it's not end of the world stuff but part of a pattern.
Deliberate interruption of food supply should be treated with absolutely top priority as terrorism. One small notch only down from poisoning reservoirs.
It looks to me like the Tories are going to be replaced by Reform as the UK's right wing political option. Not a welcome prospect for somebody like me who, whilst medically unable to vote for them, has never found them utterly repellent in government (with the exception of Johnson, Truss, Thatcher, and a fair bit of Sunak, Major and Cameron).
Funny thing is that the literal meanings of the party names are directly contradictory: Conservative or Reform. Preserve or Change. Make your bloody minds up, sheeple!
Labour is still apt though. Keir is labouring to get his message across.
And the LibDems are both Liberal and Democratic...
The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.
But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.
One big caveat though. It’s only a year after the election, most of the public know there are 4 more to go before they need to pay meaningful attention to the choices in front of them, and I doubt many of those polled are thinking “hmm, who would I actually vote for if there were a general election tomorrow”.
Remember the power of the homing pigeon effect. We have a couple of examples on this very forum. More than any other party, the Tories allow their supporters to go out and sow their wild oats between elections, up to the point of repeatedly stating they are done with the party and never voting for them again, but then the actual GE ballot box beckons, real choices face them, and they return home to the blues.
Sounds like it's not end of the world stuff but part of a pattern.
Deliberate interruption of food supply should be treated with absolutely top priority as terrorism. One small notch only down from poisoning reservoirs.
No doubt @RochdalePioneers can weigh in, but a disruption of a couple of the bigger players could cause chaos. ...Phil Pluck, chief executive of the Cold Chain Federation, said the warehousing, food storage and distribution sectors were "constantly under attack". A few years ago, there were a few cyber and ransomware attacks, but in the last year there has been "a huge increase", he said. About half of the food consumed in the UK "goes through the cold chain sector", he said, so hackers "know how critical" distribution is for "putting food on supermarket shelves"...
Apparently the FA Cup final and Eurovision Song Contest have only been on the same day twice in the last decade or so
Sir Keir Starmer is looking forward to Eurovision. Having just returned from a European summit in Albania, the prime minister will sit down on Saturday with his family for what has become something of a tradition. “That will be a must,” he says. “It’s always the same, the FA Cup, then Eurovision. All the family watch it.”
I noticed that. But it needs a probe. What does the data say? If Eurovision is usually a week or two *after* the cup final then SKS has a viable defence. Because he doesn't actually say they watch them on the same day, does he? He could have meant they always sit down and watch the cup final (as a family) and then on a subsequent Saturday they come together for Eurovision. That works. He deserves (and should get) the benefit of the doubt there. Otoh, if Eurovision is often before the cup final, that's damning and we might have a genuine 'gate' on our hands.
You just don't expect this kind of casual relationship with the truth from Mr Integrity
The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.
But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.
One big caveat though. It’s only a year after the election, most of the public know there are 4 more to go before they need to pay meaningful attention to the choices in front of them, and I doubt many of those polled are thinking “hmm, who would I actually vote for if there were a general election tomorrow”.
Remember the power of the homing pigeon effect. We have a couple of examples on this very forum. More than any other party, the Tories allow their supporters to go out and sow their wild oats between elections, up to the point of repeatedly stating they are done with the party and never voting for them again, but then the actual GE ballot box beckons, real choices face them, and they return home to the blues.
Not a few voted Labour at the last election, though. And Reform might be a much smaller step for the majority of their voters.
Apparently the FA Cup final and Eurovision Song Contest have only been on the same day twice in the last decade or so
Sir Keir Starmer is looking forward to Eurovision. Having just returned from a European summit in Albania, the prime minister will sit down on Saturday with his family for what has become something of a tradition. “That will be a must,” he says. “It’s always the same, the FA Cup, then Eurovision. All the family watch it.”
I noticed that. But it needs a probe. What does the data say? If Eurovision is usually a week or two *after* the cup final then SKS has a viable defence. Because he doesn't actually say they watch them on the same day, does he? He could have meant they always sit down and watch the cup final (as a family) and then on a subsequent Saturday they come together for Eurovision. That works. He deserves (and should get) the benefit of the doubt there. Otoh, if Eurovision is often before the cup final, that's damning and we might have a genuine 'gate' on our hands.
I’ll always remember the date and time when this horror dawned on me ! I mean I’ll have to pick up the pieces and go on with my life with the knowledge that Starmer could have fibbed about when he watched Eurovision and the FA Cup !
Omg that’s just so awful and is far worse than partying whilst grannie or granddad were on a ventilator. We need Bozo back that pillar of honesty and public service !
It obviously doesn't matter, I just heard them taking the piss out of him about it on the Football Cliches podcast this morning
The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.
But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.
Yes the left is (sadly from my pov) in the doldrums. Eg in all of the mainstream discourse about policies, priorities, problems etc there is hardly a mention these days of what is and always has been my biggest political interest - the reduction of inequality. Nobody seems bothered about it. Or if they are it's just accepted there's no appetite or realistic possibility of doing anything serious in that space. It's afflicted me too if I'm honest. I don't care as much as I used to. If something is not happening it seems a bit pointless to stay invested in it. Then again, tell that to a lifelong Crystal Palace supporter.
Sounds like it's not end of the world stuff but part of a pattern.
While some politicians are going on about a Brexit betrayal or immigration, this is what is happening in the real world. Why isn't Kemi banging on about this?
The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.
But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.
One big caveat though. It’s only a year after the election, most of the public know there are 4 more to go before they need to pay meaningful attention to the choices in front of them, and I doubt many of those polled are thinking “hmm, who would I actually vote for if there were a general election tomorrow”.
Remember the power of the homing pigeon effect. We have a couple of examples on this very forum. More than any other party, the Tories allow their supporters to go out and sow their wild oats between elections, up to the point of repeatedly stating they are done with the party and never voting for them again, but then the actual GE ballot box beckons, real choices face them, and they return home to the blues.
The other key factor is the Tory press. The Daily Mail, for instance, sunmoned all the flock home just in time for the election last year.
I'm not sure what they might do if Farage is pn 30%.
Sounds like it's not end of the world stuff but part of a pattern.
While some politicians are going on about a Brexit betrayal or immigration, this is what is happening in the real world. Why isn't Kemi banging on about this?
Apparently the FA Cup final and Eurovision Song Contest have only been on the same day twice in the last decade or so
Sir Keir Starmer is looking forward to Eurovision. Having just returned from a European summit in Albania, the prime minister will sit down on Saturday with his family for what has become something of a tradition. “That will be a must,” he says. “It’s always the same, the FA Cup, then Eurovision. All the family watch it.”
I noticed that. But it needs a probe. What does the data say? If Eurovision is usually a week or two *after* the cup final then SKS has a viable defence. Because he doesn't actually say they watch them on the same day, does he? He could have meant they always sit down and watch the cup final (as a family) and then on a subsequent Saturday they come together for Eurovision. That works. He deserves (and should get) the benefit of the doubt there. Otoh, if Eurovision is often before the cup final, that's damning and we might have a genuine 'gate' on our hands.
You just don't expect this kind of casual relationship with the truth from Mr Integrity
Thing is, to be Mr Integrity after Boris Johnson you only need to tell the truth sometimes.
Anyway, what about this data dive to see which of the cup final and eurovision usually comes first? Do people want me to do it?
The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.
But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.
Yes the left is (sadly from my pov) in the doldrums. Eg in all of the mainstream discourse about policies, priorities, problems etc there is hardly a mention these days of what is and always has been my biggest political interest - the reduction of inequality. Nobody seems bothered about it. Or if they are it's just accepted there's no appetite or realistic possibility of doing anything serious in that space. It's afflicted me too if I'm honest. I don't care as much as I used to. If something is not happening it seems a bit pointless to stay invested in it. Then again, tell that to a lifelong Crystal Palace supporter.
Now, the threat of a redistributionist socialist government would certainly reinvigorate the Conservatives.
The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.
But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.
One big caveat though. It’s only a year after the election, most of the public know there are 4 more to go before they need to pay meaningful attention to the choices in front of them, and I doubt many of those polled are thinking “hmm, who would I actually vote for if there were a general election tomorrow”.
Remember the power of the homing pigeon effect. We have a couple of examples on this very forum. More than any other party, the Tories allow their supporters to go out and sow their wild oats between elections, up to the point of repeatedly stating they are done with the party and never voting for them again, but then the actual GE ballot box beckons, real choices face them, and they return home to the blues.
That's certainly true. But, the big danger for the Conservatives is that instead of 4,000 to 800 councillors, as at present, by 2028, it could be more like 2,000 to 3,000, with Reform well ahead of them in the Senedd, London Assembly, and Scottish Parliament. At that point, the Conservatives are looking like a wasted vote.
That's...kind of worrying. I'm not a fan of Scottish independence but it's a legitimate aspiration if undertaken democratically and I wouldn't approve of criminalising it. What is this man up to?
The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.
But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.
Yes the left is (sadly from my pov) in the doldrums. Eg in all of the mainstream discourse about policies, priorities, problems etc there is hardly a mention these days of what is and always has been my biggest political interest - the reduction of inequality. Nobody seems bothered about it. Or if they are it's just accepted there's no appetite or realistic possibility of doing anything serious in that space. It's afflicted me too if I'm honest. I don't care as much as I used to. If something is not happening it seems a bit pointless to stay invested in it. Then again, tell that to a lifelong Crystal Palace supporter.
Now, the threat of a redistributionist socialist government would certainly reinvigorate the Conservatives.
A good bet long-shot for next PM could be Daisy Cooper, if she takes over from Ed Davey and the LDs become the main challengers to Farage. Did someone mention this idea yesterday?
The Telegraph has a photo of the latest Starmer firebomber
In a bizarre twist of fate, the UK Prime Minister has apparently been attacked by the worlds first radical splinter group of male models, perhaps enraged at his prohibition of “Blue Steel”
Farage will not be around for ever and he shows absolutely no interest in sharing the limelight with anyone else.
I would not write the Tories' obituary just yet
Reform = Farage is a similar equation to the SNP = Salmond. There are structural reasons for their success beyond the appeal of the leader.
Who is Farage's Sturgeon?
There isn't a Sturgeon (ie generally sane, as flawed as the rest of us but politically deft, grounded and seasoned by decades of political grind) in Reform, because Farage's ego can't cope with any competition. The closest he'll ever get would be a spiv like Tice. Who should stick to frittering away the dosh his dad left him and floozying around
Again, this speaks to the rather surprising pig-headed ignorance on the part of so many of our centrist shrewdies. I consume a lot of right of centre media - but I'm not completely unaware of the 'rising stars' within Labour and their supposed merits.
Zia Yusuf is the obvious heir apparent, has been spoken of as such by Farage himself, and Lowe aside (which is a mark against him) is a very impressive performer.
I'm rather taken aback to hear that you consume a lot of right of centre media.
Given that the Overton Window is on a daily march rightward to the point that Nigel F. (‘How dare you call me far right!) is virtually a centrist dad, I’m a bit worried about just how right of centre this media is.
A good bet long-shot for next PM could be Daisy Cooper, if she takes over from Ed Davey and the LDs become the main challengers to Farage. Did someone mention this idea yesterday?
I told you, it's going to be Reform v Lib Dem in the future. They reflect more purely the new major dividing cleavage in politics after 30 odd years of globalization: essentially nationalism v cosmopolitanism
Most of the votes are on the side of the nation state and preference to one's compatriots, but neither Labour nor the Tories can lean into that hard enough, Lab because their instinct is that it's racist, the Tories because their donors (& many MPS) love liberal globalization
The Lib Dems will colonise the comfortable home counties liberal Tory vote while also nicking much of the soft liberal Lab vote, while Reform will destroy everyone everywhere else except the big inner city seats which will stay Lab or go Islamist independent
In this scenario Lab has a chance of competing for 2nd place with the Lib Dems, but the Tories are nowhere, reduced to 3 seats in Buckinghamshire and some memories of Thatcher wrapped up in the union flag
The Telegraph has a photo of the latest Starmer fire bomber
In a bizarre twist of fate the Prime Minister has been attacked by the worlds first radical splinter group of male models, perhaps enraged at his prohibition of “Blue Steel”
From western Ukraine too, it appears, though a Romanian national.
The two photos the Telegraph has look quite different though - the Linkedin one v the male model one. Might need to take some care.
The Telegraph has a photo of the latest Starmer fire bomber
In a bizarre twist of fate the Prime Minister has been attacked by the worlds first radical splinter group of male models, perhaps enraged at his prohibition of “Blue Steel”
From western Ukraine too, it appears, though a Romanian national.
The two photos the Telegraph has look quite different though - the Linkedin one v the male model one. Careful..
I’ve only seen two male models, quite different. Perhaps the third firebomber is just a would-be male model
I told you, it's going to be Reform v Lib Dem in the future. They reflect more purely the new major dividing cleavage in politics after 30 odd years of globalization: essentially nationalism v cosmopolitanism
Most of the votes are on the side of the nation state and preference to one's compatriots, but neither Labour nor the Tories can lean into that hard enough, Lab because their instinct is that it's racist, the Tories because their donors (& many MPS) love liberal globalization
The Lib Dems will colonise the comfortable home counties liberal Tory vote while also nicking much of the soft liberal Lab vote, while Reform will destroy everyone everywhere else except the big inner city seats which will stay Lab or go Islamist independent
In this scenario Lab has a chance of competing for 2nd place with the Lib Dems, but the Tories are nowhere, reduced to 3 seats in Buckinghamshire and some memories of Thatcher wrapped up in the union flag
Have you dropped your theory that Reform would replace Labour and lead to a Ref/Con duopoly?
Comments
This isn't the USA.
I thought that the Electoral System for Mayors change to FPTP was done in the Electoral Reform Act 2022.
It was fishy and imo self-serving - and the reasons given ("Its too complicated and difficult - Oh ! Oh ! Oh!) are transparently baloney, and makes Mayors more likely to be elected by a partisan block with fewer votes. But aiui the change was via Parliament.
What have I missed?
We had a Tory government 11 months ago. Total Managed Expenditure (ie state) was £45,000 per household in 2024-5, at about 1.3 trillion and over 44% of GDP.
@andrew_lilico
·
3m
What is the Tory floor? Well, they got under 9% at the 2019 European elections. So there's probably no guarantee their floor is higher than that.
https://x.com/andrew_lilico
I seem to remember seeing a poll where the members wanted Boris instead of either Truss or Sunak at the time of the last leadership election.
@electionmaps.uk
This is only the 5th opinion poll in history to have the Conservatives in 4th place.
All others were published in June 2019, shortly after Theresa May's resignation as Prime Minister.
My strictly monitored photo quota for today:
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/defence-intelligence-communicating-probability
Agree on mediocre, nowadays it's a polite way of saying pretty poor.
It is worrying that 'perfect' is assessed, by many, to be some way below perfect!
ETA: Demonstrates the problems with 0-10 or similar scales, as often seen in research. Most people are reluctant to score anything at either extreme.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/elected-mayors-first-past-the-post
I'm not sure how Proroguing of Parliament was done when Bojo was trying to stifle debate, and I did have a certain sympathy for the action there on the basis that the Opposition were perhaps being even more cynical than he was.
That was a Privy Council thing, maybe - "by the Monarch on advice of the Prime Minister".
Thankfully I'm pretty sure Starmer is just the sort of principled bloke who would oppose an 'anti-subversion' law.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/25175615.uk-anti-terrorism-tsar-warning-scottish-independence/?ref=twtrec
The 2022 Elections Act replaced the supplementary vote system for choosing the Mayor with FPTP.
IF a future Government put in its manifesto a commitment to change the electoral system for the London Mayoral election to STV or whatever, I see no issue with that going through Parliament without a referendum if there's a majority in the Commons.
Changes at all elections up to but NOT including Westminster elections could go through via legislation - I do think there's a difference with General Elections and can see the argument for a referendum for changing the voting system for those.
It definitely wouldn’t improve Farage’s score though. From that point of view he’d be doing a public service.
At the end of the Cold War, all kinds of anti movements, across the Western world, collapsed when major chunks of their funding evaporated.
Given that Putin looks back on those days as the Cozy Goode Olde Days….
The further problem is not only that there really is no one on the Tory benches who fits the bill, not to mention that 12 MPs- 10% of the total- have majorities of less than 1000, and 3 have majorities of less than 100, and so the workload on those back benchers just to hold their seats is now pretty severe.
Then there are so many are Knights of the Shire who are now very long in the tooth: Roger Gale is 81, Christopher Chope is 78, David Davis is 76, Martin Vickers is 74, as is Edward Leigh, Julian Lewis is 73, Geoffrey Clifton Brown is 72, IDS is 71, and there is a similar cadre of the over sixties.
Then there are those, like Priti Patel or Mark Francois, who have, for various reasons, gone beyond the Pale or are at best semi-detached.
Although inexperience is no bar to party leadership, those younger Tories in their first or second Parliament are not particularly compelling either. Identikit Management Consultants are not going to set the heather on fire. It is hard not to conclude that there is no great Tory leader waiting to take the reins.
Kemi Badenoch might be the best they have got.
No one is listening right now so focus on fundamentals
The 2026 local elections are more likely to be a big test for Labour (London and the Mets) but the Conservatives will have seats to defend and that will include in those new Shadow authorities up for election. The abolition of some District Councils in 2027 will reduce the Conservative local base further (it will also reduce the LD base).
Could the LDs or Reform have more local councils than the Conservatives by 2027? You couldn't rule it out though it's worth mentioning Reform still have fewer Councillors than the Greens (though that may change via defections over time).
Apparently the FA Cup final and Eurovision Song Contest have only been on the same day twice in the last decade or so
Sir Keir Starmer is looking forward to Eurovision. Having just returned from a European summit in Albania, the prime minister will sit down on Saturday with his family for what has become something of a tradition. “That will be a must,” he says. “It’s always the same, the FA Cup, then Eurovision. All the family watch it.”
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/keir-starmer-brexit-eu-deal-eurovision-wqx0ld3jd?msockid=1aae0b29d86069d029621e1ed9ff6889
Priti was on Today this morning after Kevin McCarthy, they seemed to have had a wager on who could be the most awkward interviewee
Is the Tory party about to collapse?
I do enjoy th Mark Francois to become a hippy traveller, and join the Greens.
Daniel Hannan to join Natural Law Party.
No johnny-come-lately there.
Its kind of ironic that the lack of talent is persuading some Tories that they might defect to RefUK, a party that has even less talent than they do.
Zia Yusuf is the obvious heir apparent, has been spoken of as such by Farage himself, and Lowe aside (which is a mark against him) is a very impressive performer.
As an example, by 1997, the Conservative party machine was obsolete and had atrophied considerably which contributed to its massive defeat. Reading accounts, comparing it to Mandelson's Labour party operation was like comparing a snail to a Ferrari.
One thing Hague did was to overhaul how the party worked centrally - it's the kind of project which doesn't reap any rewards in the short term but pays off down the lihe so when Cameron became leader, the Conservative Party, as an electoral operation, was in a much better shape compared to that of the Liberal Democrats (still very much in the 1980s and 1990s mindset) and Labour.
The advantage Hague had over Badenoch was the absence of an existential threat - the Conservatives still had moren than three times the number of LD MPs after 1997 - the difference now is 2 LD MPs for every 3 Conservatives and of course Reform....
He didn't advance.the Tories a lot, but also did them no harm.
Omg that’s just so awful and is far worse than partying whilst grannie or granddad were on a ventilator. We need Bozo back that pillar of honesty and public service !
(That it might actually be Conservative in the sense of low spend, self reliance, low tax, paternalist about poorer communities, pro-social housing, culturally conservative about education, opportunity maximised, differing outcomes respected, pro religion, family, traditions, deeply respectful of the working class, mothers and care within the family etc is of course far too much to ask. However, there is a gap in the market).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czr88myp570o
Sounds like it's not end of the world stuff but part of a pattern.
The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.
But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.
I'll get my coat...
Remember the power of the homing pigeon effect. We have a couple of examples on this very forum. More than any other party, the Tories allow their supporters to go out and sow their wild oats between elections, up to the point of repeatedly stating they are done with the party and never voting for them again, but then the actual GE ballot box beckons, real choices face them, and they return home to the blues.
...Phil Pluck, chief executive of the Cold Chain Federation, said the warehousing, food storage and distribution sectors were "constantly under attack".
A few years ago, there were a few cyber and ransomware attacks, but in the last year there has been "a huge increase", he said.
About half of the food consumed in the UK "goes through the cold chain sector", he said, so hackers "know how critical" distribution is for "putting food on supermarket shelves"...
And Reform might be a much smaller step for the majority of their voters.
I'm not sure what they might do if Farage is pn 30%.
The Tories are now 4th place in the polls and sinking fast.
https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1924756906989564144?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Anyway, what about this data dive to see which of the cup final and eurovision usually comes first? Do people want me to do it?
Allahu akbar!
🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧
https://x.com/suffragent_/status/1924734041196024233?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Bobbie J against who ? JR Ewing ?
#pbfreespeech
In a bizarre twist of fate, the UK Prime Minister has apparently been attacked by the worlds first radical splinter group of male models, perhaps enraged at his prohibition of “Blue Steel”
Mickey mouse sport
(I say west Ukrainian because that means probably not Russian-speaking...)
I told you, it's going to be Reform v Lib Dem in the future. They reflect more purely the new major dividing cleavage in politics after 30 odd years of globalization: essentially nationalism v cosmopolitanism
Most of the votes are on the side of the nation state and preference to one's compatriots, but neither Labour nor the Tories can lean into that hard enough, Lab because their instinct is that it's racist, the Tories because their donors (& many MPS) love liberal globalization
The Lib Dems will colonise the comfortable home counties liberal Tory vote while also nicking much of the soft liberal Lab vote, while Reform will destroy everyone everywhere else except the big inner city seats which will stay Lab or go Islamist independent
In this scenario Lab has a chance of competing for 2nd place with the Lib Dems, but the Tories are nowhere, reduced to 3 seats in Buckinghamshire and some memories of Thatcher wrapped up in the union flag
The two photos the Telegraph has look quite different though - the Linkedin one v the male model one. Might need to take some care.
model