Looking at the clip, I think it's rather to Starmer's credit that he apologised to Roberts for his rudeness at last week's PMQs.
Always best to acknowledge a wrongdoing and apologise, I agree. He normally corrects the record online when he makes errors in PMQs rather than say it in person
Apparently DOGE fired a bunch of weather forecasters, so the US can't issue weather warnings for tornadoes overnight, quite likely leading to some avoidable deaths recently.
The measure of the insanity that has gripped the US is that, despite this and other instances of spectacular unfitness for office, cowardice, corruption, and being a traitor to the country, Trump's net approval rating is only -5.8.
This is the sort of thing in store for Britain if Farage becomes PM.
We forget @MoonRabbit is the other Conservative...
It's one poll and means nothing in isolation. Opinium had a 5-point gap at the weekend. Perhaps of more significance, apart from More In Common, the Conservatives have been below 20% in every poll conducted since the local elections.
The only answer I think is the old cobbler saying "time wounds all heels". While we witter on about what happened 10-15 years ago as though it were still of vital importance, most voters don't. The memory of the Conservatives in office will fade with time and they will then have the opportunity (as in 2005) to go back to the public with a new slate, new faces and new thinking.
Anyone and everyone associated with the 2010-24 period such as Boris, JRM and Badenoch - all of them need to walk away and clear the field for the next generation whoever that may be.
Voters still remember when Conservative governments managed the economy well - less than a decade ago - is why to peel away from the Conservative Party to Reform right now, is hasty and stupid. Reform have zero credibility for being trusted with the UK economy.
“Vote Conservative for strong economy and looking after the pounds in your pocket. Labour, for all their good intentions will wreck the economy, they have huge black holes in their economic plans they can’t explain.” < this is exactly how the Conservative Party had so many more years in office over the last century,
Exactly like Labour struggled in 20th century, Reform will have a huge problem rebutting this. Kemi will absolutely shred Reform at the next General Election. Conservatives have pragmatism and real economic credibility - Reform are ideological purists with nothing but £100B+ black hole in their economic credibility.
This is wishful thinking. Populism is resurgent across the West right now & Farage knows how to ride that train.
The voters gave the Conservatives a fair shake & were disappointed, so they turned to Labour who (so far) have not covered themselves in glory. Current polling suggests that they‘re far more likely to turn to Farage/Reform than they are to give the current Conservatives another chance.
2-party FPTP systems are ruthless engines of destruction for parties that fall out of favour.
I reject your analysis. The polls say as much about the shake down end of this race, as a horse leading by a few lengths one fifth into a race.
When it comes to the run in, lack of any economic credibility, hundreds of billions of pounds of black hole, is a total Achilles heel torpedoing chances of Reform adding much to their current number of MPs. Conservative Partys economic pragmatism and historical credibility at running the economy will see them shred Reform in a General Election campaign.
This is what Remain thought about the Leave campaign.
An angry population will vote for whomever offers a combination of the most attractive sweeteners combined with giving them someone to blame; populist movements are good at exactly that thing & Reform could well ride that wave into government.
If we see Reform led councils collapsing early & often then people might open their eyes to the likely economic competence of a future Reform government, but without that concrete example I suspect the voters will weigh such warnings about as heavily as they did “project fear”. You can be right, but it doesn’t mean the voters will listen to you.
Firstly, you are comparing a Brexit referendum with a general election? Many voters skipped Brexit referendum, or voted leave on basis it wasn’t an election choosing a party to look after the economy. How leave areas returned MPs for hard left Corbyn in 2017 is substantial psephological evidence. That alone shredded your post.
But, secondly, this isn’t two party politics. It won’t be Labour and Conservative squabbling over whose manifesto is greatest threat with Black Holes in the budgets, at the March April campaign 2029, a lot of both main parties air time and budget will be spent pointing out to voters that, from migration, economics, health, education, through to foreign affairs, Reform do not have a sane, workable, non ruinous policy to take to serious UK voters.
What will be quite bizarre especially if Reform are still leading the polls in the run up to the GE, is the Labour and Tory parties not allowing Farage airtime on debates because Reform only have five seats in the HofC. They will surely try it though
Not at all - they will want him there. They will want to debate Reform policy positions with him in front of voters.
Tommy Robinson is being released from prison next week. That's eleven months early I think
Two tier justice Robinson, a multiple offender who has shown no contrition for his offending gets parole Malkinson and others wrongly convicted serve their full tariff despite being model prisoners, only being released when their convictions are overturned
Tommy many names was jailed for 18 months Malkinson was jailed for 31 months.
That's the fundamental difference as even if both were given identical treatment and released after 40% of their sentence was served Tommy is going to be out 4 to 5 months earlier.
No the fundamental difference is this "Malkinson could have been released after 6½ years but was not due to his maintaining his innocence.[15] He was released in 2020 for good behaviour."
Robinson is a recidivist who has shown no contrition for his offending but is being released after serving a 1/3 of reduced sentence, Malkinson, and others who maintain their innocence, are not eligible for early parole regardless of their risk of reoffending or behaviour in prison, solely because they contest their conviction.
The latter is institutionalized spite by the Criminal Justice system for questioning the process and safety of the conviction.
That is a fiendish conundrum, isn't it. You get early release by admitting guilt. But you won't want to do that if you're innocent.
Seems completely crazy, and would be ludicrously frustrating, on top of a load of other frustrations, for the innocent prisoner
I am sure I have mentioned this before, but another crazy thing for me is the lesser sentence for attempted murder than murder. If a person who has been stabbed is saved by a passing medic while another a street away dies because no one sees him, why should the two assailants be treated any differently? They both had a desire to kill someone, and acted on it. The intention should be judged, not the outcome
Yep you can argue that. It's logical. But think where it goes. Eg I have a skinful and drive my car. Scenario A, the cops stop me and I get done for DUI. Scenario B, I hit and kill someone. My behaviour is equally bad in both scenarios, isn't it, but would we want to see the same punishment?
I see what you mean, but I think there is a decent argument that driving after having a skinful and getting away with it should be punished as if you’d hit and killed someone. The person who did the latter is no worse than the former
Trouble with that is that whilst I'm against drink driving, I'd want to distinguish between "had one pint too many, then drove a mile home home in a steady and careful manner" and "downed 15 pints and was then pulled over after been seen driving at 100mph on the wrong side of the road in 30 limit".
Both are wrong. Both have an elevated risk of killing someone, but the second guy is obviously far more of a danger to life than the first. It seems profoundly unfair if we treat them both the same, because their actions *might* have killed someone.
I meant if both drivers had drunk the same amount. But I do think that zero tolerance for drink driving, as far as is possible, should be the way. I occasionally used to drive to the pub on a Sat night and have three lager shandies over three hours then drive home, but I still felt a bit looser than when I drove completely sober.
As another driver, ie if you are following one, it is easy to spot a drunk (or, alternatively, and probably relatedly) on their phone driver. They just drive slightly off and it is super noticeable.
I once was stopped at a police roadblock on my bike (Suzuki, not Boris) and I asked the police why they had stopped me. He said to go on my way. I asked what was that all about and he said they were there to catch drink drivers and he could see immediately from my eyes that I hadn't had a drink.
I could never vote Reform. There are some really unpleasant people within its ranks. I'd rather vote Labour and that's saying something.
I have them ahead of the Greens, and if the Greens were to merge with the left of Labour as @williamglenn mentions below then I'd happily vote for them if that was the only choice.
I wonder how many parties will stand in more than (say) 100 seats at the next GE. Obviously a couple of possible new outcroppings in the fertile Farage heap, but others are possible too. Even that Clegg chap was on the radio this morning.
We forget @MoonRabbit is the other Conservative...
It's one poll and means nothing in isolation. Opinium had a 5-point gap at the weekend. Perhaps of more significance, apart from More In Common, the Conservatives have been below 20% in every poll conducted since the local elections.
The only answer I think is the old cobbler saying "time wounds all heels". While we witter on about what happened 10-15 years ago as though it were still of vital importance, most voters don't. The memory of the Conservatives in office will fade with time and they will then have the opportunity (as in 2005) to go back to the public with a new slate, new faces and new thinking.
Anyone and everyone associated with the 2010-24 period such as Boris, JRM and Badenoch - all of them need to walk away and clear the field for the next generation whoever that may be.
Voters still remember when Conservative governments managed the economy well - less than a decade ago - is why to peel away from the Conservative Party to Reform right now, is hasty and stupid. Reform have zero credibility for being trusted with the UK economy.
“Vote Conservative for strong economy and looking after the pounds in your pocket. Labour, for all their good intentions will wreck the economy, they have huge black holes in their economic plans they can’t explain.” < this is exactly how the Conservative Party had so many more years in office over the last century,
Exactly like Labour struggled in 20th century, Reform will have a huge problem rebutting this. Kemi will absolutely shred Reform at the next General Election. Conservatives have pragmatism and real economic credibility - Reform are ideological purists with nothing but £100B+ black hole in their economic credibility.
This is wishful thinking. Populism is resurgent across the West right now & Farage knows how to ride that train.
The voters gave the Conservatives a fair shake & were disappointed, so they turned to Labour who (so far) have not covered themselves in glory. Current polling suggests that they‘re far more likely to turn to Farage/Reform than they are to give the current Conservatives another chance.
2-party FPTP systems are ruthless engines of destruction for parties that fall out of favour.
I reject your analysis. The polls say as much about the shake down end of this race, as a horse leading by a few lengths one fifth into a race.
When it comes to the run in, lack of any economic credibility, hundreds of billions of pounds of black hole, is a total Achilles heel torpedoing chances of Reform adding much to their current number of MPs. Conservative Partys economic pragmatism and historical credibility at running the economy will see them shred Reform in a General Election campaign.
This is what Remain thought about the Leave campaign.
An angry population will vote for whomever offers a combination of the most attractive sweeteners combined with giving them someone to blame; populist movements are good at exactly that thing & Reform could well ride that wave into government.
If we see Reform led councils collapsing early & often then people might open their eyes to the likely economic competence of a future Reform government, but without that concrete example I suspect the voters will weigh such warnings about as heavily as they did “project fear”. You can be right, but it doesn’t mean the voters will listen to you.
Firstly, you are comparing a Brexit referendum with a general election? Many voters skipped Brexit referendum, or voted leave on basis it wasn’t an election choosing a party to look after the economy. How leave areas returned MPs for hard left Corbyn in 2017 is substantial psephological evidence. That alone shredded your post.
But, secondly, this isn’t two party politics. It won’t be Labour and Conservative squabbling over whose manifesto is greatest threat with Black Holes in the budgets, at the March April campaign 2029, a lot of both main parties air time and budget will be spent pointing out to voters that, from migration, economics, health, education, through to foreign affairs, Reform do not have a sane, workable, non ruinous policy to take to serious UK voters.
What will be quite bizarre especially if Reform are still leading the polls in the run up to the GE, is the Labour and Tory parties not allowing Farage airtime on debates because Reform only have five seats in the HofC. They will surely try it though
If Reform are still leading in the polls in 2029, then they will surely have double figure MPs following further by-election victories.
I'd expect the broadcasters to want to give airtime to Farage, and then it only needs one of the other party leaders to break ranks and you have a debate. Perhaps there would end up being a Tory v Labour debate and a Reform v Lib Dems debate, which could be 1st v 2nd (2024 MPs) and 1st v 2nd (2029 opinion polls).
But then I'm also assuming that there haven't been Tory MP defections to Reform or the Lib Dems. There are only 120 Tory MPs. If things continue to go badly for them they have to be at risk of falling below 100 MPs due to defections.
Looking at the clip, I think it's rather to Starmer's credit that he apologised to Roberts for his rudeness at last week's PMQs.
Always best to acknowledge a wrongdoing and apologise, I agree. He normally corrects the record online when he makes errors in PMQs rather than say it in person
I think correct in the same form as the error is a good guide.
Latest from Slalom on his eGates "deal", which seems, to anyone with a brain, exactly like the status quo
"You know how it goes: all you want to do is start your holiday, but you get off the plane to never-ending queues at passport control.
My deal with the EU means more Brits will be able to sail through the e-Gates instead.
Getting you to the beach sooner."
Getting that non-concession in the deal is quite clever. UK citizens will be going through eGates all the time in a couple of years. This would have happened anyway, but Starmer can claim he negotiated it.
Re the header article: so are we seeing a fundamental re-alignment of British politics along a Reform / LibDem axis?
LibDem / Green electoral pact needed.
“NIMBYs of the world unite - you have nothing to lose but your economic growth.” ?
That versus "Better off after Brexit? Love Trump? You'll love Reform!"
FPTP systems usually force the median voter to vote for their second least favourite option. Looks like we might be being given a choice between zero economic growth due to rampant NIMBYism /or/ a government of all the talents led by Farage.
Really not looking forward to that one personally.
A non too inspired choice and for a large portion of the country a result that would be the polar opposite of what they want. How does the winning party reconcile that ?
If the Lib Dem’s were sensible (a big ask, admittedly) they’d be looking at how they can expand their offer to appeal to other parts of the country as well. What can they offer the North East, or Lincolnshire, or other Reform friendly areas. These are not areas, in my view, that are diehard Reform. It is just NOTA and part of the appeal of Reform is, at least, Reform talk to these areas.
The Lib Dem’s will also benefit from more donations as power starts to look likely, if the trajectory continues and Farage is equally loved and loathed. I’d vote Reform at a local level but I’d never vote for PM Farage. I suspect I’m not alone.
I know a few councillors and would be councillors from the the north easterly parts of Derbyshire (Clay Cross, Tupton) that sort of way. They were in the Lib Dems but now act as independents because of a lack of support from the central party. Huge swathes of the East Midlands, Yorkshire and Northeast are real afterthoughts for the LDs I think.
Re the header article: so are we seeing a fundamental re-alignment of British politics along a Reform / LibDem axis?
LibDem / Green electoral pact needed.
“NIMBYs of the world unite - you have nothing to lose but your economic growth.” ?
That versus "Better off after Brexit? Love Trump? You'll love Reform!"
FPTP systems usually force the median voter to vote for their second least favourite option. Looks like we might be being given a choice between zero economic growth due to rampant NIMBYism /or/ a government of all the talents led by Farage.
Really not looking forward to that one personally.
A non too inspired choice and for a large portion of the country a result that would be the polar opposite of what they want. How does the winning party reconcile that ?
If the Lib Dem’s were sensible (a big ask, admittedly) they’d be looking at how they can expand their offer to appeal to other parts of the country as well. What can they offer the North East, or Lincolnshire, or other Reform friendly areas. These are not areas, in my view, that are diehard Reform. It is just NOTA and part of the appeal of Reform is, at least, Reform talk to these areas.
The Lib Dem’s will also benefit from more donations as power starts to look likely, if the trajectory continues and Farage is equally loved and loathed. I’d vote Reform at a local level but I’d never vote for PM Farage. I suspect I’m not alone.
I know a few councillors and would be councillors from the the north easterly parts of Derbyshire (Clay Cross, Tupton) that sort of way. They were in the Lib Dems but now act as independents because of a lack of support from the central party. Huge swathes of the East Midlands, Yorkshire and Northeast are real afterthoughts for the LDs I think.
They are indeed. Our council in Durham was recently led by a Lib Dem as part of tne coalition. A Lib Dem politician running a Northern council. You’d never know it. The national party weren’t bothered. In Durham there are several solid Lib Dem areas and they are now the opposition to Reform. With effort, a few years ago, they could have took the Durham City seat. Now they are miles behind yet they have local councillors in said seat.
Re the header article: so are we seeing a fundamental re-alignment of British politics along a Reform / LibDem axis?
LibDem / Green electoral pact needed.
“NIMBYs of the world unite - you have nothing to lose but your economic growth.” ?
That versus "Better off after Brexit? Love Trump? You'll love Reform!"
FPTP systems usually force the median voter to vote for their second least favourite option. Looks like we might be being given a choice between zero economic growth due to rampant NIMBYism /or/ a government of all the talents led by Farage.
Really not looking forward to that one personally.
A non too inspired choice and for a large portion of the country a result that would be the polar opposite of what they want. How does the winning party reconcile that ?
If the Lib Dem’s were sensible (a big ask, admittedly) they’d be looking at how they can expand their offer to appeal to other parts of the country as well. What can they offer the North East, or Lincolnshire, or other Reform friendly areas. These are not areas, in my view, that are diehard Reform. It is just NOTA and part of the appeal of Reform is, at least, Reform talk to these areas.
The Lib Dem’s will also benefit from more donations as power starts to look likely, if the trajectory continues and Farage is equally loved and loathed. I’d vote Reform at a local level but I’d never vote for PM Farage. I suspect I’m not alone.
I know a few councillors and would be councillors from the the north easterly parts of Derbyshire (Clay Cross, Tupton) that sort of way. They were in the Lib Dems but now act as independents because of a lack of support from the central party. Huge swathes of the East Midlands, Yorkshire and Northeast are real afterthoughts for the LDs I think.
There's a reasonably strong Lib Dem presence in Leics. We are the second largest party in the NOC County Council, and control Oadby and Wigston.
Not NIMBY either, we leave that to the Con and Reform.
Comments
The measure of the insanity that has gripped the US is that, despite this and other instances of spectacular unfitness for office, cowardice, corruption, and being a traitor to the country, Trump's net approval rating is only -5.8.
This is the sort of thing in store for Britain if Farage becomes PM.
NEW THREAD
I once was stopped at a police roadblock on my bike (Suzuki, not Boris) and I asked the police why they had stopped me. He said to go on my way. I asked what was that all about and he said they were there to catch drink drivers and he could see immediately from my eyes that I hadn't had a drink.
I wonder how many parties will stand in more than (say) 100 seats at the next GE. Obviously a couple of possible new outcroppings in the fertile Farage heap, but others are possible too. Even that Clegg chap was on the radio this morning.
I'd expect the broadcasters to want to give airtime to Farage, and then it only needs one of the other party leaders to break ranks and you have a debate. Perhaps there would end up being a Tory v Labour debate and a Reform v Lib Dems debate, which could be 1st v 2nd (2024 MPs) and 1st v 2nd (2029 opinion polls).
But then I'm also assuming that there haven't been Tory MP defections to Reform or the Lib Dems. There are only 120 Tory MPs. If things continue to go badly for them they have to be at risk of falling below 100 MPs due to defections.
Not NIMBY either, we leave that to the Con and Reform.