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Just how low can Badenoch’s Tories go? – politicalbetting.com

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  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,002
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    The Telegraph has a photo of the latest Starmer fire bomber

    In a bizarre twist of fate the Prime Minister has been attacked by the worlds first radical splinter group of male models, perhaps enraged at his prohibition of “Blue Steel”

    From western Ukraine too, it appears, though a Romanian national.

    The two photos the Telegraph has look quite different though - the Linkedin one v the male model one. Careful..
    I’ve only seen two male models, quite different. Perhaps the third firebomber is just a would-be male
    model
    What are they actually angry about ? Bizarre is too mild a word, clearly.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,218

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    The Telegraph has a photo of the latest Starmer fire bomber

    In a bizarre twist of fate the Prime Minister has been attacked by the worlds first radical splinter group of male models, perhaps enraged at his prohibition of “Blue Steel”

    From western Ukraine too, it appears, though a Romanian national.

    The two photos the Telegraph has look quite different though - the Linkedin one v the male model one. Careful..
    I’ve only seen two male models, quite different. Perhaps the third firebomber is just a would-be male
    model
    What are they actually angry about ? Bizarre is too mild a word, clearly.
    They want equal pay with female models.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,731
    Tommy Robinson is being released from prison next week. That's eleven months early I think
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,284
    dixiedean said:

    https://x.com/CapelLofft/status/1924748509518983533

    I told you, it's going to be Reform v Lib Dem in the future. They reflect more purely the new major dividing cleavage in politics after 30 odd years of globalization: essentially nationalism v cosmopolitanism

    Most of the votes are on the side of the nation state and preference to one's compatriots, but neither Labour nor the Tories can lean into that hard enough, Lab because their instinct is that it's racist, the Tories because their donors (& many MPS) love liberal globalization

    The Lib Dems will colonise the comfortable home counties liberal Tory vote while also nicking much of the soft liberal Lab vote, while Reform will destroy everyone everywhere else except the big inner city seats which will stay Lab or go Islamist independent

    In this scenario Lab has a chance of competing for 2nd place with the Lib Dems, but the Tories are nowhere, reduced to 3 seats in Buckinghamshire and some memories of Thatcher wrapped up in the union flag

    Have you dropped your theory that Reform would replace Labour and lead to a Ref/Con duopoly?
    Not entirely. I essentially agree with the analysis I posted except I think the Tories have a chance of being the party of globalisation.

    If you can imagine a Tory party led by someone in the mould of Boris Johnson when he was mayor of London, they're actually a better fit for this than the Lib Dems who ultimately have very parochial instincts.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,185

    kinabalu said:

    flanner2 said:

    Reform = Farage.

    Farage will not be around for ever and he shows absolutely no interest in sharing the limelight with anyone else.

    I would not write the Tories' obituary just yet

    Reform = Farage is a similar equation to the SNP = Salmond. There are structural reasons for their success beyond the appeal of the leader.

    Who is Farage's Sturgeon?

    There isn't a Sturgeon (ie generally sane, as flawed as the rest of us but politically deft, grounded and seasoned by decades of political grind) in Reform, because Farage's ego can't cope with any competition. The closest he'll ever get would be a spiv like Tice. Who should stick to frittering away the dosh his dad left him and floozying around
    Again, this speaks to the rather surprising pig-headed ignorance on the part of so many of our centrist shrewdies. I consume a lot of right of centre media - but I'm not completely unaware of the 'rising stars' within Labour and their supposed merits.

    Zia Yusuf is the obvious heir apparent, has been spoken of as such by Farage himself, and Lowe aside (which is a mark against him) is a very impressive performer.
    I'm rather taken aback to hear that you consume a lot of right of centre media.
    Given that the Overton Window is on a daily march rightward to the point that Nigel F. (‘How dare you call me far right!) is virtually a centrist dad, I’m a bit worried about just how right of centre this media is.
    Yes, the centre of gravity is storming "right, right ... right right right":

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tTCFTfI_EOY

    But there is an upside. Just be being a little squeamish about the mass deportation of Muslims I can reclaim my waning Left Radical credentials.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 6,042
    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    The Telegraph has a photo of the latest Starmer fire bomber

    In a bizarre twist of fate the Prime Minister has been attacked by the worlds first radical splinter group of male models, perhaps enraged at his prohibition of “Blue Steel”

    From western Ukraine too, it appears, though a Romanian national.

    The two photos the Telegraph has look quite different though - the Linkedin one v the male model one. Careful..
    I’ve only seen two male models, quite different. Perhaps the third firebomber is just a would-be male
    model
    I suspect the result with be rather less sensational - someone gave them the addresses and told them what to do. Bet they didn't know of any connection to the prime minister. We shall see.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,027
    isam said:

    Tommy Robinson is being released from prison next week. That's eleven months early I think

    Two tier justice
    Robinson, a multiple offender who has shown no contrition for his offending gets parole
    Malkinson and others wrongly convicted serve their full tariff despite being model prisoners, only being released when their convictions are overturned
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,858
    carnforth said:

    Leon said:

    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    The Telegraph has a photo of the latest Starmer fire bomber

    In a bizarre twist of fate the Prime Minister has been attacked by the worlds first radical splinter group of male models, perhaps enraged at his prohibition of “Blue Steel”

    From western Ukraine too, it appears, though a Romanian national.

    The two photos the Telegraph has look quite different though - the Linkedin one v the male model one. Careful..
    I’ve only seen two male models, quite different. Perhaps the third firebomber is just a would-be male
    model
    I suspect the result with be rather less sensational - someone gave them the addresses and told them what to do. Bet they didn't know of any connection to the prime minister. We shall see.
    It feels like a mad incident from season 7 of a dying tv drama, when the writers have already tried “jumping the shark”
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,742
    viewcode said:

    Golly, we've now got check for Nats, Greens, trans folk, self-hating whites and UK haters as well as reds under the bed.

    Thankfully I'm pretty sure Starmer is just the sort of principled bloke who would oppose an 'anti-subversion' law.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25175615.uk-anti-terrorism-tsar-warning-scottish-independence/?ref=twtrec

    That's...kind of worrying. I'm not a fan of Scottish independence but it's a legitimate aspiration if undertaken democratically and I wouldn't approve of criminalising it. What is this man up to?

    #pbfreespeech
    Well, if I was someone on Putin's staff charged with messing up the UK I'd certainly find means of funding all the 'respectable if perhaps cranky' opposition groups I could. First of all it would tie up the police, secondly it would give the mainstream parties something else about which to worry and thirdly it would provide support for all the slightly unusual people who could be relied upon to make a fuss
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,185

    https://x.com/CapelLofft/status/1924748509518983533

    I told you, it's going to be Reform v Lib Dem in the future. They reflect more purely the new major dividing cleavage in politics after 30 odd years of globalization: essentially nationalism v cosmopolitanism

    Most of the votes are on the side of the nation state and preference to one's compatriots, but neither Labour nor the Tories can lean into that hard enough, Lab because their instinct is that it's racist, the Tories because their donors (& many MPS) love liberal globalization

    The Lib Dems will colonise the comfortable home counties liberal Tory vote while also nicking much of the soft liberal Lab vote, while Reform will destroy everyone everywhere else except the big inner city seats which will stay Lab or go Islamist independent

    In this scenario Lab has a chance of competing for 2nd place with the Lib Dems, but the Tories are nowhere, reduced to 3 seats in Buckinghamshire and some memories of Thatcher wrapped up in the union flag

    That's kind of replicating GOP v DEM in the States.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,551
    In irrelevant news, yesterday I smacked my knee into some cast iron weights. It's not that bad, actually, only had pain when kneeling (pretty surprised, to be honest). But that's just another example of how I've suffered more injuries from dusting than doing exercise.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 909

    https://x.com/CapelLofft/status/1924748509518983533

    I told you, it's going to be Reform v Lib Dem in the future. They reflect more purely the new major dividing cleavage in politics after 30 odd years of globalization: essentially nationalism v cosmopolitanism

    Most of the votes are on the side of the nation state and preference to one's compatriots, but neither Labour nor the Tories can lean into that hard enough, Lab because their instinct is that it's racist, the Tories because their donors (& many MPS) love liberal globalization

    The Lib Dems will colonise the comfortable home counties liberal Tory vote while also nicking much of the soft liberal Lab vote, while Reform will destroy everyone everywhere else except the big inner city seats which will stay Lab or go Islamist independent

    In this scenario Lab has a chance of competing for 2nd place with the Lib Dems, but the Tories are nowhere, reduced to 3 seats in Buckinghamshire and some memories of Thatcher wrapped up in the union flag

    Would that Tweet be from the same Capel Lofft who got himself on an episode of The Rest is History by complaining very loudly about them being too hard on Charles I and the divine right of Kings?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,858

    HYUFD actually deserves to become Tory leader, as he's the single-most loyal Tory I've ever seen.

    No johnny-come-lately there.

    Also @HYUFD is literally the last Tory left in the UK
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,129
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Things come to an end.

    The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.

    But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.

    Yes the left is (sadly from my pov) in the doldrums. Eg in all of the mainstream discourse about policies, priorities, problems etc there is hardly a mention these days of what is and always has been my biggest political interest - the reduction of inequality. Nobody seems bothered about it. Or if they are it's just accepted there's no appetite or realistic possibility of doing anything serious in that space. It's afflicted me too if I'm honest. I don't care as much as I used to. If something is not happening it seems a bit pointless to stay invested in it. Then again, tell that to a lifelong Crystal Palace supporter.
    The Unherd lot will tell you that (paraphrasing wildly) identity politics is a tool for the corporate west to distract from economic inequality. I'm not necessarily bought into this as a conspiracy, but it certainly has this effect. And thus, the working classes turn away from the left, because the left deals with issues of increasing irrelevance to them.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,441
    carnforth said:

    Second charged arsonist also west Ukrainian-born, though referred to by police as "Romanian National". What an odd situation.

    (I say west Ukrainian because that means probably not Russian-speaking...)

    The Chernivtsi oblast was only added to the Ukrainian SSSR at the end of WW2 by Stalin just for the bantz so lots of people there can claim Romanian citizenship via ancestry.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 133
    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Things come to an end.

    The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.

    But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.

    Yes the left is (sadly from my pov) in the doldrums. Eg in all of the mainstream discourse about policies, priorities, problems etc there is hardly a mention these days of what is and always has been my biggest political interest - the reduction of inequality. Nobody seems bothered about it. Or if they are it's just accepted there's no appetite or realistic possibility of doing anything serious in that space. It's afflicted me too if I'm honest. I don't care as much as I used to. If something is not happening it seems a bit pointless to stay invested in it. Then again, tell that to a lifelong Crystal Palace supporter.
    Politics normally reflects the pulse of the nation. The UK is normally centre right which ATM the Labour party is offering. Politics is primarily about getting and keeping power.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,858
    Dura_Ace said:

    carnforth said:

    Second charged arsonist also west Ukrainian-born, though referred to by police as "Romanian National". What an odd situation.

    (I say west Ukrainian because that means probably not Russian-speaking...)

    The Chernivtsi oblast was only added to the Ukrainian SSSR at the end of WW2 by Stalin just for the bantz so lots of people there can claim Romanian citizenship via ancestry.
    Chernivtsi is a fantastic little old Austro-Hungarian city. Absolutely fascinating history. Has had about 230 names

    Spent ten days there in 2023, where I discovered it was also the birthplace of my sometime drinking companion, the late Gregor von Rezzori, author of “memoirs of an anti Semite” - a brilliant book of mitteleuropean nostalgia and melancholy
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,858
    On topic, at some point the Tories need to think about a merger with Reform, it’s probably their only hope of survival - a bit like men merging with machines which, as Elon says, is our only hope of making it through

    When and if they do merge that will be a formidable force. Suddenly Farage will have heirs and spares

    Almost certainly they would win the next GE
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,979
    Andy_JS said:

    I do enjoy the Tory changes of leader, that should say below there. But I can't see who would replace Kemi.

    Jenrick is the obvious candidate.
    The obvious candidate to finish off the work of the last few leaders - and finish off the Tory party properly.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,016
    Dopermean said:

    isam said:

    Tommy Robinson is being released from prison next week. That's eleven months early I think

    Two tier justice
    Robinson, a multiple offender who has shown no contrition for his offending gets parole
    Malkinson and others wrongly convicted serve their full tariff despite being model prisoners, only being released when their convictions are overturned
    Tommy many names was jailed for 18 months
    Malkinson was jailed for 31 months.

    That's the fundamental difference as even if both were given identical treatment and released after 40% of their sentence was served Tommy is going to be out 4 to 5 months earlier.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,002
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Things come to an end.

    The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.

    But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.

    Yes the left is (sadly from my pov) in the doldrums. Eg in all of the mainstream discourse about policies, priorities, problems etc there is hardly a mention these days of what is and always has been my biggest political interest - the reduction of inequality. Nobody seems bothered about it. Or if they are it's just accepted there's no appetite or realistic possibility of doing anything serious in that space. It's afflicted me too if I'm honest. I don't care as much as I used to. If something is not happening it seems a bit pointless to stay invested in it. Then again, tell that to a lifelong Crystal Palace supporter.
    The Unherd lot will tell you that (paraphrasing wildly) identity politics is a tool for the corporate west to distract from economic inequality. I'm not necessarily bought into this as a conspiracy, but it certainly has this effect. And thus, the working classes turn away from the left, because the left deals with issues of increasing irrelevance to them.
    It's quite an accurate assessment. But both the left and the corporate right allowed it to happen.
    The picture can only be complete, though, when one understands that a second part of the corporate right is using rightwing identity politics, essentially to achieve exactly the same thing.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,735
    I had a nightmare in which the LDs were right back down to 12 seats after a snap election, and stuck backing a Labour minority.
  • SandraMcSandraMc Posts: 739
    Lucy Connolly has lost her appeal against her conviction for tweet after Southport murders.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,858
    BREAKING: Large internet and mobile network outage in Spain

    Spectator Index on X
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,466
    edited 10:46AM
    dixiedean said:

    Thames Water is bringing out my inner Bolshevik.

    It's a blatant lie that customers won't end up paying for any of this.
    And there is fuck all reason for a monopoly utility to be paying this sort of cost for a loan - other than that the company is effectively bankrupt.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/thames-water-chair-mps-bonuses-sir-adrian-montague
    ..The UK’s largest water company is in a desperate race to raise funds and persuade the water regulator to let it off hundreds of millions of pounds of fines or risk being renationalised. The company won a court battle which allowed it to accept the loan, which comes with an expensive 9.75% interest rate and fees...

    Which do you think will cost us more in the long run ?
    Taking it into public ownership - or handing it over to yet another bunch of foreign venture capitalists ?

    ..The company, which serves about a quarter of the country’s population, is loaded with £20bn in debt and is now in exclusive discussions with the private equity group KKR over a potential purchase of the business...

    The reality is that the taxpayer and the bill payers are largely one and the same. Saving the taxpayer the cost if bailing the company out - at the expense of making customers pay that saving, plus whatever exorbitant dividends the next set of owners award themselves - is the falsest of economies.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,466
    Stereodog said:

    https://x.com/CapelLofft/status/1924748509518983533

    I told you, it's going to be Reform v Lib Dem in the future. They reflect more purely the new major dividing cleavage in politics after 30 odd years of globalization: essentially nationalism v cosmopolitanism

    Most of the votes are on the side of the nation state and preference to one's compatriots, but neither Labour nor the Tories can lean into that hard enough, Lab because their instinct is that it's racist, the Tories because their donors (& many MPS) love liberal globalization

    The Lib Dems will colonise the comfortable home counties liberal Tory vote while also nicking much of the soft liberal Lab vote, while Reform will destroy everyone everywhere else except the big inner city seats which will stay Lab or go Islamist independent

    In this scenario Lab has a chance of competing for 2nd place with the Lib Dems, but the Tories are nowhere, reduced to 3 seats in Buckinghamshire and some memories of Thatcher wrapped up in the union flag

    Would that Tweet be from the same Capel Lofft who got himself on an episode of The Rest is History by complaining very loudly about them being too hard on Charles I and the divine right of Kings?
    Trump fan, then ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,466
    Leon said:

    HYUFD actually deserves to become Tory leader, as he's the single-most loyal Tory I've ever seen.

    No johnny-come-lately there.

    Also @HYUFD is literally the last Tory left in the UK
    That's a literally unique way of uniting a party.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,466
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Things come to an end.

    The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.

    But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.

    Yes the left is (sadly from my pov) in the doldrums. Eg in all of the mainstream discourse about policies, priorities, problems etc there is hardly a mention these days of what is and always has been my biggest political interest - the reduction of inequality. Nobody seems bothered about it. Or if they are it's just accepted there's no appetite or realistic possibility of doing anything serious in that space. It's afflicted me too if I'm honest. I don't care as much as I used to. If something is not happening it seems a bit pointless to stay invested in it. Then again, tell that to a lifelong Crystal Palace supporter.
    The Unherd lot will tell you that (paraphrasing wildly) identity politics is a tool for the corporate west to distract from economic inequality. I'm not necessarily bought into this as a conspiracy, but it certainly has this effect. And thus, the working classes turn away from the left, because the left deals with issues of increasing irrelevance to them.
    It's not a conspiracy, just a tactic as old as democratic politics.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,079
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thames Water is bringing out my inner Bolshevik.

    It's a blatant lie that customers won't end up paying for any of this.
    And there is fuck all reason for a monopoly utility to be paying this sort of cost for a loan - other than that the company is effectively bankrupt.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/thames-water-chair-mps-bonuses-sir-adrian-montague
    ..The UK’s largest water company is in a desperate race to raise funds and persuade the water regulator to let it off hundreds of millions of pounds of fines or risk being renationalised. The company won a court battle which allowed it to accept the loan, which comes with an expensive 9.75% interest rate and fees...

    Which do you think will cost us more in the long run ?
    Taking it into public ownership - or handing it over to yet another bunch of foreign venture capitalists ?

    ..The company, which serves about a quarter of the country’s population, is loaded with £20bn in debt and is now in exclusive discussions with the private equity group KKR over a potential purchase of the business...

    The reality is that the taxpayer and the bill payers are largely one and the same. Saving the taxpayer the cost if bailing the company out - at the expense of making customers pay that saving, plus whatever exorbitant dividends the next set of owners award themselves - is the falsest of economies.
    Quite.
    Although I'm a taxpayer, not a Thames bill payer.
    The background hum is, of course, that all this was yet another brilliant Tory wheeze.
    It's a wonder they're still at 16% given the condescending vitriol poured on anyone who thought privatising water might just be mental.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,466
    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Large internet and mobile network outage in Spain

    Spectator Index on X

    It's their overreliance on renewables...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,858
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Large internet and mobile network outage in Spain

    Spectator Index on X

    It's their overreliance on renewables...
    It’s surely Putin doing all of this? He’s made it plain he wants to attack the west via infra and cyber

    Possibly with encouragement or even assistance from China?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,321
    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Large internet and mobile network outage in Spain

    Spectator Index on X

    It's their overreliance on renewables...
    Could be Mossad
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 222
    Dura_Ace said:

    carnforth said:

    Second charged arsonist also west Ukrainian-born, though referred to by police as "Romanian National". What an odd situation.

    (I say west Ukrainian because that means probably not Russian-speaking...)

    The Chernivtsi oblast was only added to the Ukrainian SSSR at the end of WW2 by Stalin just for the bantz so lots of people there can claim Romanian citizenship via ancestry.
    'Just for the bantz' = attempt to appease Ukrainian nationalism inside the USSR? I don't imagine Stalin generally doing things for the 'bantz'. Are you one of those who think Lenin created Ukraine?

    On a side note Michael Weiss tweeted that some of the Trump administration were deeply disappointed in Simion's defeat in the Romanian election and had 'invested' a lot in his victory. I think in light of this we ought to be letting the Trump administration feel a bit of heat over this.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,625
    edited 10:59AM
    Leon said:

    On topic, at some point the Tories need to think about a merger with Reform, it’s probably their only hope of survival - a bit like men merging with machines which, as Elon says, is our only hope of making it through

    When and if they do merge that will be a formidable force. Suddenly Farage will have heirs and spares

    Almost certainly they would win the next GE

    You really can't predict such stuff, with 4 years to go, as 'Almost certain'. There is so much that can happen between now and then. Just look at past polling

    Anyway even if your scenario happens there are two obvious problems:

    a) The merged party will be tainted by the Tories. Many people vote Reform because Reform aren't Tories. Some are ex Lab or ex NOTA.

    b) It would also probably boost the LDs by picking up the more moderate Tories, which in turn could make them the key challengers, which then makes things very unpredictable.

    As I said making a statement of if they did this it would make this 'almost certain' 4 years off is nuts even if reasonably possible.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,466

    Fun morning. Tories in 4th. SNP on 2%. Spanish client confirms work until at least October with the expectation to extend if we're making progress on the project I'd pitched to them. Dutch prospective client wants on board with the project I and a business partner have pitched to them.

    I'm relaunching Just Get A Tesla on YouTube on Friday and we're now committed to recording Emergency Podcast twice a week. Whilst applying for selection for Holyrood seats.

    Having been desperately worried about everything stopping all at once I'm now overflowing with projects and feeling brilliant about it. I'm even losing weight again (planned) as I've got my anxiety eating / drinking firmly back under control.

    Great to hear that.
    But be careful to pace yourself.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,466
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Large internet and mobile network outage in Spain

    Spectator Index on X

    It's their overreliance on renewables...
    It’s surely Putin doing all of this? He’s made it plain he wants to attack the west via infra and cyber

    Possibly with encouragement or even assistance from China?
    I was being ironic of course.
    It's not 100% cert Putin, but has to be the default assumption.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,466
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thames Water is bringing out my inner Bolshevik.

    It's a blatant lie that customers won't end up paying for any of this.
    And there is fuck all reason for a monopoly utility to be paying this sort of cost for a loan - other than that the company is effectively bankrupt.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/thames-water-chair-mps-bonuses-sir-adrian-montague
    ..The UK’s largest water company is in a desperate race to raise funds and persuade the water regulator to let it off hundreds of millions of pounds of fines or risk being renationalised. The company won a court battle which allowed it to accept the loan, which comes with an expensive 9.75% interest rate and fees...

    Which do you think will cost us more in the long run ?
    Taking it into public ownership - or handing it over to yet another bunch of foreign venture capitalists ?

    ..The company, which serves about a quarter of the country’s population, is loaded with £20bn in debt and is now in exclusive discussions with the private equity group KKR over a potential purchase of the business...

    The reality is that the taxpayer and the bill payers are largely one and the same. Saving the taxpayer the cost if bailing the company out - at the expense of making customers pay that saving, plus whatever exorbitant dividends the next set of owners award themselves - is the falsest of economies.
    Quite.
    Although I'm a taxpayer, not a Thames bill payer.
    The background hum is, of course, that all this was yet another brilliant Tory wheeze.
    It's a wonder they're still at 16% given the condescending vitriol poured on anyone who thought privatising water might just be mental.
    The bonuses story is both a symptom and a distraction.
    It's the next two decades of corporate robbery that really bother me.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,858
    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, at some point the Tories need to think about a merger with Reform, it’s probably their only hope of survival - a bit like men merging with machines which, as Elon says, is our only hope of making it through

    When and if they do merge that will be a formidable force. Suddenly Farage will have heirs and spares

    Almost certainly they would win the next GE

    You really can't predict such stuff, with 4 years to go, as 'Almost certain'. There is so much that can happen between now and then. Just look at past polling

    Anyway even if your scenario happens there are two obvious problems:

    a) The merged party will be tainted by the Tories. Many people vote Reform because Reform aren't Tories. Some are ex Lab or ex NOTA.

    b) It would also probably boost the LDs by picking up the more moderate Tories, which in turn could make them the key challengers, which then makes things very unpredictable.

    As I said making a statement of if they did this it would make this 'almost certain' 4 years off is nuts even if reasonably possible.
    You should surely know by know that, in the PB lexicon, “almost certainly going to happen” actually means “this is something I would like to happen”
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,345
    Leon said:

    On topic, at some point the Tories need to think about a merger with Reform, it’s probably their only hope of survival - a bit like men merging with machines which, as Elon says, is our only hope of making it through

    When and if they do merge that will be a formidable force. Suddenly Farage will have heirs and spares

    Almost certainly they would win the next GE

    And Farage is just going to point and laugh.

    The Tories might want or need a deal, but what have they got to offer Reform other than a load of third rate has-beens on the green benches and making true the accusation that Reform are just the same old Tories anyway.

    It's worth considering that if the whole parliamentary conservative party is allowed to join Reform on mass, it will be very difficult for Farage to cull all the dead wood he's acquired at the next election, when frankly, quite a lot of it needs to go.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 222
    By the way Dura, I understand this must be a confusing time for you what with the great satan cosying up to protagonist of the SMO.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,466

    Dura_Ace said:

    carnforth said:

    Second charged arsonist also west Ukrainian-born, though referred to by police as "Romanian National". What an odd situation.

    (I say west Ukrainian because that means probably not Russian-speaking...)

    The Chernivtsi oblast was only added to the Ukrainian SSSR at the end of WW2 by Stalin just for the bantz so lots of people there can claim Romanian citizenship via ancestry.
    'Just for the bantz' = attempt to appease Ukrainian nationalism inside the USSR? I don't imagine Stalin generally doing things for the 'bantz'. Are you one of those who think Lenin created Ukraine?

    On a side note Michael Weiss tweeted that some of the Trump administration were deeply disappointed in Simion's defeat in the Romanian election and had 'invested' a lot in his victory. I think in light of this we ought to be letting the Trump administration feel a bit of heat over this.
    Better would be concentrating on planning for the semi-inevitable US abandonment of any commitment to Ukraine. (And possible resumption of economic ties with Russia.)

    Either Europe draws a line now, or we'll be discussing the continuing conflict for the next decade.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,864
    Off topic, we have received two parcels from the same courier company this morning. Delivered 20 minutes apart by two different drivers.

    That does not appear to be the most efficient way to run their operation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,675

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Large internet and mobile network outage in Spain

    Spectator Index on X

    It's their overreliance on renewables...
    Could be Mossad

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Large internet and mobile network outage in Spain

    Spectator Index on X

    It's their overreliance on renewables...
    Could be Mossad
    One entertaining conspiracy theory is that a *friendly* intelligence agency has discovered lots of the back doors and kill switches embedded in Chinese kit.

    Given the politicians habit of ignoring difficult problems, said agency is setting off the vulnerabilities, one-by-one, so that the politicians will be forced to act.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,287

    Fun morning. Tories in 4th. SNP on 2%. Spanish client confirms work until at least October with the expectation to extend if we're making progress on the project I'd pitched to them. Dutch prospective client wants on board with the project I and a business partner have pitched to them.

    I'm relaunching Just Get A Tesla on YouTube on Friday and we're now committed to recording Emergency Podcast twice a week. Whilst applying for selection for Holyrood seats.

    Having been desperately worried about everything stopping all at once I'm now overflowing with projects and feeling brilliant about it. I'm even losing weight again (planned) as I've got my anxiety eating / drinking firmly back under control.

    Good to hear but also be kind to yourself
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,048
    Nigelb said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Things come to an end.

    The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.

    But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.

    Yes the left is (sadly from my pov) in the doldrums. Eg in all of the mainstream discourse about policies, priorities, problems etc there is hardly a mention these days of what is and always has been my biggest political interest - the reduction of inequality. Nobody seems bothered about it. Or if they are it's just accepted there's no appetite or realistic possibility of doing anything serious in that space. It's afflicted me too if I'm honest. I don't care as much as I used to. If something is not happening it seems a bit pointless to stay invested in it. Then again, tell that to a lifelong Crystal Palace supporter.
    The Unherd lot will tell you that (paraphrasing wildly) identity politics is a tool for the corporate west to distract from economic inequality. I'm not necessarily bought into this as a conspiracy, but it certainly has this effect. And thus, the working classes turn away from the left, because the left deals with issues of increasing irrelevance to them.
    It's not a conspiracy, just a tactic as old as democratic politics.
    And the undemocratic world, too, is no stranger to bringing up cultural issues to hide economic failures.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,027
    eek said:

    Dopermean said:

    isam said:

    Tommy Robinson is being released from prison next week. That's eleven months early I think

    Two tier justice
    Robinson, a multiple offender who has shown no contrition for his offending gets parole
    Malkinson and others wrongly convicted serve their full tariff despite being model prisoners, only being released when their convictions are overturned
    Tommy many names was jailed for 18 months
    Malkinson was jailed for 31 months.

    That's the fundamental difference as even if both were given identical treatment and released after 40% of their sentence was served Tommy is going to be out 4 to 5 months earlier.
    No the fundamental difference is this "Malkinson could have been released after 6½ years but was not due to his maintaining his innocence.[15] He was released in 2020 for good behaviour."

    Robinson is a recidivist who has shown no contrition for his offending but is being released after serving a 1/3 of reduced sentence, Malkinson, and others who maintain their innocence, are not eligible for early parole regardless of their risk of reoffending or behaviour in prison, solely because they contest their conviction.

    The latter is institutionalized spite by the Criminal Justice system for questioning the process and safety of the conviction.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,002

    By the way Dura, I understand this must be a confusing time for you what with the great satan cosying up to protagonist of the SMO.

    Ca veut dire quoi ? C'esr a propos de l'Amerique ?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,357
    But why male models?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,551
    TimS said:

    But why male models?

    Zoolander has all the answers you need.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,858
    TimS said:

    But why male models?

    Because it’s the twist that most amused the writers of The Simulation

    Obvs
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,345
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thames Water is bringing out my inner Bolshevik.

    It's a blatant lie that customers won't end up paying for any of this.
    And there is fuck all reason for a monopoly utility to be paying this sort of cost for a loan - other than that the company is effectively bankrupt.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/thames-water-chair-mps-bonuses-sir-adrian-montague
    ..The UK’s largest water company is in a desperate race to raise funds and persuade the water regulator to let it off hundreds of millions of pounds of fines or risk being renationalised. The company won a court battle which allowed it to accept the loan, which comes with an expensive 9.75% interest rate and fees...

    Which do you think will cost us more in the long run ?
    Taking it into public ownership - or handing it over to yet another bunch of foreign venture capitalists ?

    ..The company, which serves about a quarter of the country’s population, is loaded with £20bn in debt and is now in exclusive discussions with the private equity group KKR over a potential purchase of the business...

    The reality is that the taxpayer and the bill payers are largely one and the same. Saving the taxpayer the cost if bailing the company out - at the expense of making customers pay that saving, plus whatever exorbitant dividends the next set of owners award themselves - is the falsest of economies.
    I still don't understand why either the tax payers or bill payers need to be even slightly on the hook for this.
    Some idiots lent a bunch of vultures a load of money, who took the money and ran off with it. This money was secured against the assets of a business. The core business itself is profitable, just not sufficiently profitable to keep up the loan repayments.

    The idiots now want the customers of the business and/or the taxpayers to pay them back. In any normal business in this situation you'd summon some administrators, sell the business, and give the idiots pennies in the £ of their back. Or alternatively they could do a debt - equity swap and end up the proud owners.

    There is literally zero reason why this can't happen with Thames Water, other than the government and regulator both apparently having decided to bale out the idiots instead.

  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,625
    edited 11:13AM
    Leon said:

    kjh said:

    Leon said:

    On topic, at some point the Tories need to think about a merger with Reform, it’s probably their only hope of survival - a bit like men merging with machines which, as Elon says, is our only hope of making it through

    When and if they do merge that will be a formidable force. Suddenly Farage will have heirs and spares

    Almost certainly they would win the next GE

    You really can't predict such stuff, with 4 years to go, as 'Almost certain'. There is so much that can happen between now and then. Just look at past polling

    Anyway even if your scenario happens there are two obvious problems:

    a) The merged party will be tainted by the Tories. Many people vote Reform because Reform aren't Tories. Some are ex Lab or ex NOTA.

    b) It would also probably boost the LDs by picking up the more moderate Tories, which in turn could make them the key challengers, which then makes things very unpredictable.

    As I said making a statement of if they did this it would make this 'almost certain' 4 years off is nuts even if reasonably possible.
    You should surely know by know that, in the PB lexicon, “almost certainly going to happen” actually means “this is something I would like to happen”
    Fair enough. But it is 'possible' a merger with the Tories might do Reform more harm than good so maybe you shouldn't wish it would happen. Who knows?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,027
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thames Water is bringing out my inner Bolshevik.

    It's a blatant lie that customers won't end up paying for any of this.
    And there is fuck all reason for a monopoly utility to be paying this sort of cost for a loan - other than that the company is effectively bankrupt.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/thames-water-chair-mps-bonuses-sir-adrian-montague
    ..The UK’s largest water company is in a desperate race to raise funds and persuade the water regulator to let it off hundreds of millions of pounds of fines or risk being renationalised. The company won a court battle which allowed it to accept the loan, which comes with an expensive 9.75% interest rate and fees...

    Which do you think will cost us more in the long run ?
    Taking it into public ownership - or handing it over to yet another bunch of foreign venture capitalists ?

    ..The company, which serves about a quarter of the country’s population, is loaded with £20bn in debt and is now in exclusive discussions with the private equity group KKR over a potential purchase of the business...

    The reality is that the taxpayer and the bill payers are largely one and the same. Saving the taxpayer the cost if bailing the company out - at the expense of making customers pay that saving, plus whatever exorbitant dividends the next set of owners award themselves - is the falsest of economies.
    Quite.
    Although I'm a taxpayer, not a Thames bill payer.
    The background hum is, of course, that all this was yet another brilliant Tory wheeze.
    It's a wonder they're still at 16% given the condescending vitriol poured on anyone who thought privatising water might just be mental.
    The bonuses story is both a symptom and a distraction.
    It's the next two decades of corporate robbery that really bother me.
    Presumably the current board are worried that they will be replaced by the new PE mob, so have jeopardised the next 2 decades of customer robbery in their desperation not to miss out.

    If you watched the BBC documentary it was clear that the staff who should be getting huge bonuses are the ones keeping the water treatment facilities running while starved of funds.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,185
    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Things come to an end.

    The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.

    But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.

    Yes the left is (sadly from my pov) in the doldrums. Eg in all of the mainstream discourse about policies, priorities, problems etc there is hardly a mention these days of what is and always has been my biggest political interest - the reduction of inequality. Nobody seems bothered about it. Or if they are it's just accepted there's no appetite or realistic possibility of doing anything serious in that space. It's afflicted me too if I'm honest. I don't care as much as I used to. If something is not happening it seems a bit pointless to stay invested in it. Then again, tell that to a lifelong Crystal Palace supporter.
    The Unherd lot will tell you that (paraphrasing wildly) identity politics is a tool for the corporate west to distract from economic inequality. I'm not necessarily bought into this as a conspiracy, but it certainly has this effect. And thus, the working classes turn away from the left, because the left deals with issues of increasing irrelevance to them.
    Trouble is, the antiwoke tendency (as exemplified on UnHerd) is not noticeably supportive of egalitarian policies. My suspicion is they use the "immigration damages the working class" argument as cover for the real objection to it - a belief the west should stay white.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,357
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    But why male models?

    Because it’s the twist that most amused the writers of The Simulation

    Obvs
    Right. But why male models?
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 222
    edited 11:16AM
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    carnforth said:

    Second charged arsonist also west Ukrainian-born, though referred to by police as "Romanian National". What an odd situation.

    (I say west Ukrainian because that means probably not Russian-speaking...)

    The Chernivtsi oblast was only added to the Ukrainian SSSR at the end of WW2 by Stalin just for the bantz so lots of people there can claim Romanian citizenship via ancestry.
    'Just for the bantz' = attempt to appease Ukrainian nationalism inside the USSR? I don't imagine Stalin generally doing things for the 'bantz'. Are you one of those who think Lenin created Ukraine?

    On a side note Michael Weiss tweeted that some of the Trump administration were deeply disappointed in Simion's defeat in the Romanian election and had 'invested' a lot in his victory. I think in light of this we ought to be letting the Trump administration feel a bit of heat over this.
    Better would be concentrating on planning for the semi-inevitable US abandonment of any commitment to Ukraine. (And possible resumption of economic ties with Russia.)

    Either Europe draws a line now, or we'll be discussing the continuing conflict for the next decade.
    We certainly ought to be planning for that. However I'm tired of us relying solely on sycophancy with regards to Trump. People in his administration were heavily invested in an anti Ukrainian Romanian nationalist winning their Presidential election. Now there are reports of someone with a similar ideology launching arson attacks against our PM's property. At the very least we should be drip feeding our concerns. At least make Trump feel some pressure about his choices.

    Too much? Well if sycophancy is the order of the day then how about we stop focusing on Trump and start looking to Congress instead, particularly Lindsay Graham who has a proposal backed by 72 Senators for much greater sanctions against Russia. I hope Mandelson is not wholly fixated on the White House.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,142

    Fun morning. Tories in 4th. SNP on 2%. Spanish client confirms work until at least October with the expectation to extend if we're making progress on the project I'd pitched to them. Dutch prospective client wants on board with the project I and a business partner have pitched to them.

    I'm relaunching Just Get A Tesla on YouTube on Friday and we're now committed to recording Emergency Podcast twice a week. Whilst applying for selection for Holyrood seats.

    Having been desperately worried about everything stopping all at once I'm now overflowing with projects and feeling brilliant about it. I'm even losing weight again (planned) as I've got my anxiety eating / drinking firmly back under control.

    Good to hear but also be kind to yourself
    Don't worry - the pace is manageable as its not all on me. For months up until the point where I lost it I had been swept along by a tidal wave (or choose your own similar metaphor). I wasn't in control. Now I am. I could turn down any of this stuff - and can do so if I need to.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,142
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    But why male models?

    Because it’s the twist that most amused the writers of The Simulation

    Obvs
    Right. But why male models?
    Watch one of the accused cry off due to the black lung.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,742
    Dopermean said:

    eek said:

    Dopermean said:

    isam said:

    Tommy Robinson is being released from prison next week. That's eleven months early I think

    Two tier justice
    Robinson, a multiple offender who has shown no contrition for his offending gets parole
    Malkinson and others wrongly convicted serve their full tariff despite being model prisoners, only being released when their convictions are overturned
    Tommy many names was jailed for 18 months
    Malkinson was jailed for 31 months.

    That's the fundamental difference as even if both were given identical treatment and released after 40% of their sentence was served Tommy is going to be out 4 to 5 months earlier.
    No the fundamental difference is this "Malkinson could have been released after 6½ years but was not due to his maintaining his innocence.[15] He was released in 2020 for good behaviour."

    Robinson is a recidivist who has shown no contrition for his offending but is being released after serving a 1/3 of reduced sentence, Malkinson, and others who maintain their innocence, are not eligible for early parole regardless of their risk of reoffending or behaviour in prison, solely because they contest their conviction.

    The latter is institutionalized spite by the Criminal Justice system for questioning the process and safety of the conviction.
    Robinson has apparently promised to stop lying about that Syrian lad.

    For some reason the Court has believed him.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,350
    theProle said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thames Water is bringing out my inner Bolshevik.

    It's a blatant lie that customers won't end up paying for any of this.
    And there is fuck all reason for a monopoly utility to be paying this sort of cost for a loan - other than that the company is effectively bankrupt.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/thames-water-chair-mps-bonuses-sir-adrian-montague
    ..The UK’s largest water company is in a desperate race to raise funds and persuade the water regulator to let it off hundreds of millions of pounds of fines or risk being renationalised. The company won a court battle which allowed it to accept the loan, which comes with an expensive 9.75% interest rate and fees...

    Which do you think will cost us more in the long run ?
    Taking it into public ownership - or handing it over to yet another bunch of foreign venture capitalists ?

    ..The company, which serves about a quarter of the country’s population, is loaded with £20bn in debt and is now in exclusive discussions with the private equity group KKR over a potential purchase of the business...

    The reality is that the taxpayer and the bill payers are largely one and the same. Saving the taxpayer the cost if bailing the company out - at the expense of making customers pay that saving, plus whatever exorbitant dividends the next set of owners award themselves - is the falsest of economies.
    I still don't understand why either the tax payers or bill payers need to be even slightly on the hook for this.
    Some idiots lent a bunch of vultures a load of money, who took the money and ran off with it. This money was secured against the assets of a business. The core business itself is profitable, just not sufficiently profitable to keep up the loan repayments.

    The idiots now want the customers of the business and/or the taxpayers to pay them back. In any normal business in this situation you'd summon some administrators, sell the business, and give the idiots pennies in the £ of their back. Or alternatively they could do a debt - equity swap and end up the proud owners.

    There is literally zero reason why this can't happen with Thames Water, other than the government and regulator both apparently having decided to bale out the idiots instead.

    Yep, I'm with you. Both the equity and the bond holders need to be wiped out here, if only to show that there is a risk in this kind of fraud. Some of the fraudsters and the money they stole is long gone and outwith our jurisdiction but the cards of those who stole it should be heavily marked so they don't get to do this to us again.

    Oh, and the management of the regulator should be sacked for complete and utter incompetence. Without exception.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,185
    Dopermean said:

    eek said:

    Dopermean said:

    isam said:

    Tommy Robinson is being released from prison next week. That's eleven months early I think

    Two tier justice
    Robinson, a multiple offender who has shown no contrition for his offending gets parole
    Malkinson and others wrongly convicted serve their full tariff despite being model prisoners, only being released when their convictions are overturned
    Tommy many names was jailed for 18 months
    Malkinson was jailed for 31 months.

    That's the fundamental difference as even if both were given identical treatment and released after 40% of their sentence was served Tommy is going to be out 4 to 5 months earlier.
    No the fundamental difference is this "Malkinson could have been released after 6½ years but was not due to his maintaining his innocence.[15] He was released in 2020 for good behaviour."

    Robinson is a recidivist who has shown no contrition for his offending but is being released after serving a 1/3 of reduced sentence, Malkinson, and others who maintain their innocence, are not eligible for early parole regardless of their risk of reoffending or behaviour in prison, solely because they contest their conviction.

    The latter is institutionalized spite by the Criminal Justice system for questioning the process and safety of the conviction.
    That is a fiendish conundrum, isn't it. You get early release by admitting guilt. But you won't want to do that if you're innocent.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,858
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    But why male models?

    Because it’s the twist that most amused the writers of The Simulation

    Obvs
    Right. But why male models?
    Because it’s genuinely funny

    The sole purpose of the universe is, now, to amuse
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,002
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Things come to an end.

    The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.

    But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.

    Yes the left is (sadly from my pov) in the doldrums. Eg in all of the mainstream discourse about policies, priorities, problems etc there is hardly a mention these days of what is and always has been my biggest political interest - the reduction of inequality. Nobody seems bothered about it. Or if they are it's just accepted there's no appetite or realistic possibility of doing anything serious in that space. It's afflicted me too if I'm honest. I don't care as much as I used to. If something is not happening it seems a bit pointless to stay invested in it. Then again, tell that to a lifelong Crystal Palace supporter.
    The Unherd lot will tell you that (paraphrasing wildly) identity politics is a tool for the corporate west to distract from economic inequality. I'm not necessarily bought into this as a conspiracy, but it certainly has this effect. And thus, the working classes turn away from the left, because the left deals with issues of increasing irrelevance to them.
    Trouble is, the antiwoke tendency (as exemplified on UnHerd) is not noticeably supportive of egalitarian policies. My suspicion is they use the "immigration damages the working class" argument as cover for the real objection to it - a belief the west should stay white.
    Also as a second distraction from the effects of the post-Thatcher settlement, just like the left version can sometimes be, too. The UK needs
    a publication, media space, or platform that isn't afraid to reveal the entire scene.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,589
    edited 11:19AM
    Question - why don't we pay the Egyptians to imprison this guy instead of us? Would be a lot cheaper and a much bigger deterrent.

    BBC News - Man who helped smuggle more than 3,000 people into Europe jailed
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce399l1329lo
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,234

    Breaking: a food supplier to various supermarkets has been hit with a cyber attack:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czr88myp570o

    Sounds like it's not end of the world stuff but part of a pattern.

    While some politicians are going on about a Brexit betrayal or immigration, this is what is happening in the real world. Why isn't Kemi banging on about this?
    She hasn’t got up yet.
    No. It’s because she will be asked: are you ripping this agreement up when you come into power - but that won’t be the Conservative Party position going into the next General Election, so unlike the unwise Reform, Tory leader won’t give that hostage to fortune.

    Look at the bigger picture. This wasn’t a one off EU agreement, these reset summit will happen again for the next three years, at least 1 a year. When in power you can do things that move the dial, leaving opposition parties reactionary - cutting tax or NI just before you call an election, being the obvious one down the years.

    Also, Brexit Reset is not the correct term for it - it’s not being “reset” when both Labour government and EU knowingly taking relationship in a wholly new direction. All the coming “reset summit” will be knowingly taking UK along the road to a Swiss style arrangement with EU.

    All the reset summits giving something to business, industry and voters, will be ball in court of opposition going into next General Election. Clear water. Reform will say it’s the road to vassal state, we will rip it up, Conservative Party under Kemi definitely won’t say they will rip these Labour agreements up - and that is what puts Labour and Conservatives comfortably ahead of Reform again at the next General Election.

    Conservatives will strongly outflank Reform at the next GE, by not ripping up Labours reset summits.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,589
    DavidL said:

    theProle said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thames Water is bringing out my inner Bolshevik.

    It's a blatant lie that customers won't end up paying for any of this.
    And there is fuck all reason for a monopoly utility to be paying this sort of cost for a loan - other than that the company is effectively bankrupt.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/thames-water-chair-mps-bonuses-sir-adrian-montague
    ..The UK’s largest water company is in a desperate race to raise funds and persuade the water regulator to let it off hundreds of millions of pounds of fines or risk being renationalised. The company won a court battle which allowed it to accept the loan, which comes with an expensive 9.75% interest rate and fees...

    Which do you think will cost us more in the long run ?
    Taking it into public ownership - or handing it over to yet another bunch of foreign venture capitalists ?

    ..The company, which serves about a quarter of the country’s population, is loaded with £20bn in debt and is now in exclusive discussions with the private equity group KKR over a potential purchase of the business...

    The reality is that the taxpayer and the bill payers are largely one and the same. Saving the taxpayer the cost if bailing the company out - at the expense of making customers pay that saving, plus whatever exorbitant dividends the next set of owners award themselves - is the falsest of economies.
    I still don't understand why either the tax payers or bill payers need to be even slightly on the hook for this.
    Some idiots lent a bunch of vultures a load of money, who took the money and ran off with it. This money was secured against the assets of a business. The core business itself is profitable, just not sufficiently profitable to keep up the loan repayments.

    The idiots now want the customers of the business and/or the taxpayers to pay them back. In any normal business in this situation you'd summon some administrators, sell the business, and give the idiots pennies in the £ of their back. Or alternatively they could do a debt - equity swap and end up the proud owners.

    There is literally zero reason why this can't happen with Thames Water, other than the government and regulator both apparently having decided to bale out the idiots instead.

    Yep, I'm with you. Both the equity and the bond holders need to be wiped out here, if only to show that there is a risk in this kind of fraud. Some of the fraudsters and the money they stole is long gone and outwith our jurisdiction but the cards of those who stole it should be heavily marked so they don't get to do this to us again.

    Oh, and the management of the regulator should be sacked for complete and utter incompetence. Without exception.
    On the latter point, are we sure the regulator had the teeth in the first place?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,350
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    theProle said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thames Water is bringing out my inner Bolshevik.

    It's a blatant lie that customers won't end up paying for any of this.
    And there is fuck all reason for a monopoly utility to be paying this sort of cost for a loan - other than that the company is effectively bankrupt.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/thames-water-chair-mps-bonuses-sir-adrian-montague
    ..The UK’s largest water company is in a desperate race to raise funds and persuade the water regulator to let it off hundreds of millions of pounds of fines or risk being renationalised. The company won a court battle which allowed it to accept the loan, which comes with an expensive 9.75% interest rate and fees...

    Which do you think will cost us more in the long run ?
    Taking it into public ownership - or handing it over to yet another bunch of foreign venture capitalists ?

    ..The company, which serves about a quarter of the country’s population, is loaded with £20bn in debt and is now in exclusive discussions with the private equity group KKR over a potential purchase of the business...

    The reality is that the taxpayer and the bill payers are largely one and the same. Saving the taxpayer the cost if bailing the company out - at the expense of making customers pay that saving, plus whatever exorbitant dividends the next set of owners award themselves - is the falsest of economies.
    I still don't understand why either the tax payers or bill payers need to be even slightly on the hook for this.
    Some idiots lent a bunch of vultures a load of money, who took the money and ran off with it. This money was secured against the assets of a business. The core business itself is profitable, just not sufficiently profitable to keep up the loan repayments.

    The idiots now want the customers of the business and/or the taxpayers to pay them back. In any normal business in this situation you'd summon some administrators, sell the business, and give the idiots pennies in the £ of their back. Or alternatively they could do a debt - equity swap and end up the proud owners.

    There is literally zero reason why this can't happen with Thames Water, other than the government and regulator both apparently having decided to bale out the idiots instead.

    Yep, I'm with you. Both the equity and the bond holders need to be wiped out here, if only to show that there is a risk in this kind of fraud. Some of the fraudsters and the money they stole is long gone and outwith our jurisdiction but the cards of those who stole it should be heavily marked so they don't get to do this to us again.

    Oh, and the management of the regulator should be sacked for complete and utter incompetence. Without exception.
    On the latter point, are we sure the regulator had the teeth in the first place?
    If they didn't have the teeth they at least had the bark and they were mute whilst £20bn supposedly guaranteed with UK taxpayers' money was stolen. An utter disgrace.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,479
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thames Water is bringing out my inner Bolshevik.

    It's a blatant lie that customers won't end up paying for any of this.
    And there is fuck all reason for a monopoly utility to be paying this sort of cost for a loan - other than that the company is effectively bankrupt.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/thames-water-chair-mps-bonuses-sir-adrian-montague
    ..The UK’s largest water company is in a desperate race to raise funds and persuade the water regulator to let it off hundreds of millions of pounds of fines or risk being renationalised. The company won a court battle which allowed it to accept the loan, which comes with an expensive 9.75% interest rate and fees...

    Which do you think will cost us more in the long run ?
    Taking it into public ownership - or handing it over to yet another bunch of foreign venture capitalists ?

    ..The company, which serves about a quarter of the country’s population, is loaded with £20bn in debt and is now in exclusive discussions with the private equity group KKR over a potential purchase of the business...

    The reality is that the taxpayer and the bill payers are largely one and the same. Saving the taxpayer the cost if bailing the company out - at the expense of making customers pay that saving, plus whatever exorbitant dividends the next set of owners award themselves - is the falsest of economies.
    The fact that a water utility is paying such borrowing costs should be a literal indictment for the previous owners who robbed the firm of cash and failed to invest. OfWat should also take a great deal of the blame for permitting super normal profits and dividends from a natural monopoly. Another load of greed from Tory donors.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,002
    Eabhal said:

    DavidL said:

    theProle said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thames Water is bringing out my inner Bolshevik.

    It's a blatant lie that customers won't end up paying for any of this.
    And there is fuck all reason for a monopoly utility to be paying this sort of cost for a loan - other than that the company is effectively bankrupt.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/thames-water-chair-mps-bonuses-sir-adrian-montague
    ..The UK’s largest water company is in a desperate race to raise funds and persuade the water regulator to let it off hundreds of millions of pounds of fines or risk being renationalised. The company won a court battle which allowed it to accept the loan, which comes with an expensive 9.75% interest rate and fees...

    Which do you think will cost us more in the long run ?
    Taking it into public ownership - or handing it over to yet another bunch of foreign venture capitalists ?

    ..The company, which serves about a quarter of the country’s population, is loaded with £20bn in debt and is now in exclusive discussions with the private equity group KKR over a potential purchase of the business...

    The reality is that the taxpayer and the bill payers are largely one and the same. Saving the taxpayer the cost if bailing the company out - at the expense of making customers pay that saving, plus whatever exorbitant dividends the next set of owners award themselves - is the falsest of economies.
    I still don't understand why either the tax payers or bill payers need to be even slightly on the hook for this.
    Some idiots lent a bunch of vultures a load of money, who took the money and ran off with it. This money was secured against the assets of a business. The core business itself is profitable, just not sufficiently profitable to keep up the loan repayments.

    The idiots now want the customers of the business and/or the taxpayers to pay them back. In any normal business in this situation you'd summon some administrators, sell the business, and give the idiots pennies in the £ of their back. Or alternatively they could do a debt - equity swap and end up the proud owners.

    There is literally zero reason why this can't happen with Thames Water, other than the government and regulator both apparently having decided to bale out the idiots instead.

    Yep, I'm with you. Both the equity and the bond holders need to be wiped out here, if only to show that there is a risk in this kind of fraud. Some of the fraudsters and the money they stole is long gone and outwith our jurisdiction but the cards of those who stole it should be heavily marked so they don't get to do this to us again.

    Oh, and the management of the regulator should be sacked for complete and utter incompetence. Without exception.
    On the latter point, are we sure the regulator had the teeth in the first place?
    No; they were designed not to, and supported in not doing their job for many years.
    See also the energy regulator.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,350
    Eabhal said:

    Question - why don't we pay the Egyptians to imprison this guy instead of us? Would be a lot cheaper and a much bigger deterrent.

    BBC News - Man who helped smuggle more than 3,000 people into Europe jailed
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce399l1329lo

    How long do you think it would take him to buy his way out of an Egyptian jail?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,731
    Peter Hitchens mentioned something in one of his recent columns about nuclear weapons that sprung to mind when I watched the news about the blackouts in Iberia

    “There is another way of using these bombs and it is just as terrifying but much more think-able. It is called Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP).

    You detonate your bomb high above your enemy’s country and it sends down a gigantic burst of energy (surprised British scientists called it ‘Radioflash’ when they first met it during our bomb tests in the 1950s).

    Buildings are not harmed. People are not injured. But the targeted country immediately reverts to the early 19th century.

    Everything powered by electricity stops working, as does everything electronic.

    All modern forms of transport are immobilised. There is no internet, no banking, no modern medical treatment.

    Nothing moves except for steam locomotives, balloons, muscle-powered bicycles or vintage cars. Water pumps shut down. Life as we have grown used to it just stops and the repairs – if they ever happen – will take years.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14550245/PETER-HITCHENS-Keir-Starmer-lunatic-marching-nuclear-war.html

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,185

    Dura_Ace said:

    carnforth said:

    Second charged arsonist also west Ukrainian-born, though referred to by police as "Romanian National". What an odd situation.

    (I say west Ukrainian because that means probably not Russian-speaking...)

    The Chernivtsi oblast was only added to the Ukrainian SSSR at the end of WW2 by Stalin just for the bantz so lots of people there can claim Romanian citizenship via ancestry.
    'Just for the bantz' = attempt to appease Ukrainian nationalism inside the USSR? I don't imagine Stalin generally doing things for the 'bantz'. Are you one of those who think Lenin created Ukraine?

    On a side note Michael Weiss tweeted that some of the Trump administration were deeply disappointed in Simion's defeat in the Romanian election and had 'invested' a lot in his victory. I think in light of this we ought to be letting the Trump administration feel a bit of heat over this.
    I know Donald Trump is a stone cold genius but me not being one I'm struggling to understand his MO on sorting Ukraine. He's telegraphing that if there's no peace deal he'll "walk away", ie stop supporting Ukraine with military equipment and $$$. Putin would quite like that. Without the US, Ukraine will probably lose more territory, perhaps even the whole country. Therefore Putin is incentivised to keep fighting. It looks like a strategy to prolong the war rather than stop it.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 222
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Things come to an end.

    The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.

    But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.

    Yes the left is (sadly from my pov) in the doldrums. Eg in all of the mainstream discourse about policies, priorities, problems etc there is hardly a mention these days of what is and always has been my biggest political interest - the reduction of inequality. Nobody seems bothered about it. Or if they are it's just accepted there's no appetite or realistic possibility of doing anything serious in that space. It's afflicted me too if I'm honest. I don't care as much as I used to. If something is not happening it seems a bit pointless to stay invested in it. Then again, tell that to a lifelong Crystal Palace supporter.
    The Unherd lot will tell you that (paraphrasing wildly) identity politics is a tool for the corporate west to distract from economic inequality. I'm not necessarily bought into this as a conspiracy, but it certainly has this effect. And thus, the working classes turn away from the left, because the left deals with issues of increasing irrelevance to them.
    Trouble is, the antiwoke tendency (as exemplified on UnHerd) is not noticeably supportive of egalitarian policies
    Why should it be? There are those who are* and think woke gets in the way but for others who aren't really egalitarian they're just describing a phenomenon.

    *Try Left Is Not Woke by Susan Neiman.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,731
    kinabalu said:

    Dopermean said:

    eek said:

    Dopermean said:

    isam said:

    Tommy Robinson is being released from prison next week. That's eleven months early I think

    Two tier justice
    Robinson, a multiple offender who has shown no contrition for his offending gets parole
    Malkinson and others wrongly convicted serve their full tariff despite being model prisoners, only being released when their convictions are overturned
    Tommy many names was jailed for 18 months
    Malkinson was jailed for 31 months.

    That's the fundamental difference as even if both were given identical treatment and released after 40% of their sentence was served Tommy is going to be out 4 to 5 months earlier.
    No the fundamental difference is this "Malkinson could have been released after 6½ years but was not due to his maintaining his innocence.[15] He was released in 2020 for good behaviour."

    Robinson is a recidivist who has shown no contrition for his offending but is being released after serving a 1/3 of reduced sentence, Malkinson, and others who maintain their innocence, are not eligible for early parole regardless of their risk of reoffending or behaviour in prison, solely because they contest their conviction.

    The latter is institutionalized spite by the Criminal Justice system for questioning the process and safety of the conviction.
    That is a fiendish conundrum, isn't it. You get early release by admitting guilt. But you won't want to do that if you're innocent.
    Seems completely crazy, and would be ludicrously frustrating, on top of a load of other frustrations, for the innocent prisoner

    I am sure I have mentioned this before, but another crazy thing for me is the lesser sentence for attempted murder than murder. If a person who has been stabbed is saved by a passing medic while another a street away dies because no one sees him, why should the two assailants be treated any differently? They both had a desire to kill someone, and acted on it. The intention should be judged, not the outcome
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,129
    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    But why male models?

    Because it’s the twist that most amused the writers of The Simulation

    Obvs
    Right. But why male models?
    Because it’s genuinely funny

    The sole purpose of the universe is, now, to amuse
    This reminds me vaguely of a theory: the more ridiculous a thing looks, the more likely it is that it was put in place by time travellers coming back from the future to fix things which would have otherwise caused an apocalypse. The stranger things get, the more apocalypses we have been through and had averted by time travellers putting in place bodge jobs. I wish I could remember more of this theory.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,229

    viewcode said:

    Golly, we've now got check for Nats, Greens, trans folk, self-hating whites and UK haters as well as reds under the bed.

    Thankfully I'm pretty sure Starmer is just the sort of principled bloke who would oppose an 'anti-subversion' law.

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25175615.uk-anti-terrorism-tsar-warning-scottish-independence/?ref=twtrec

    That's...kind of worrying. I'm not a fan of Scottish independence but it's a legitimate aspiration if undertaken democratically and I wouldn't approve of criminalising it. What is this man up to?

    #pbfreespeech
    Well, if I was someone on Putin's staff charged with messing up the UK I'd certainly find means of funding all the 'respectable if perhaps cranky' opposition groups I could. First of all it would tie up the police, secondly it would give the mainstream parties something else about which to worry and thirdly it would provide support for all the slightly unusual people who could be relied upon to make a fuss
    I'd fund anti-fracking and anti-oil industry groups.

    Oh wait he already does.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,229
    TimS said:

    But why male models?

    The term 'models' is doing some heavy lifting there, in PB parlance.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,675

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Large internet and mobile network outage in Spain

    Spectator Index on X

    It's their overreliance on renewables...
    Could be Mossad

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Large internet and mobile network outage in Spain

    Spectator Index on X

    It's their overreliance on renewables...
    Could be Mossad
    One entertaining conspiracy theory is that a *friendly* intelligence agency has discovered lots of the back doors and kill switches embedded in Chinese kit.

    Given the politicians habit of ignoring difficult problems, said agency is setting off the vulnerabilities, one-by-one, so that the politicians will be forced to act.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,858
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    But why male models?

    Because it’s the twist that most amused the writers of The Simulation

    Obvs
    Right. But why male models?
    Because it’s genuinely funny

    The sole purpose of the universe is, now, to amuse
    This reminds me vaguely of a theory: the more ridiculous a thing looks, the more likely it is that it was put in place by time travellers coming back from the future to fix things which would have otherwise caused an apocalypse. The stranger things get, the more apocalypses we have been through and had averted by time travellers putting in place bodge jobs. I wish I could remember more of this theory.
    The Trump sassytempt is one of the weirdest “narrative loose ends” of recent times. If I were - god forbid - a thriller writer, there’s no way I’d get away with such an insane plot twist, that comes and goes without explanation

    Ditto lab leak. For two years almost illegal to mention. Now commonly accepted. But the reaction is “oh well shit happens, move on”. 20 million people died and we just *move on*

    I’ve decided the only sane response is to *chuckle knowingly*
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 222
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    carnforth said:

    Second charged arsonist also west Ukrainian-born, though referred to by police as "Romanian National". What an odd situation.

    (I say west Ukrainian because that means probably not Russian-speaking...)

    The Chernivtsi oblast was only added to the Ukrainian SSSR at the end of WW2 by Stalin just for the bantz so lots of people there can claim Romanian citizenship via ancestry.
    'Just for the bantz' = attempt to appease Ukrainian nationalism inside the USSR? I don't imagine Stalin generally doing things for the 'bantz'. Are you one of those who think Lenin created Ukraine?

    On a side note Michael Weiss tweeted that some of the Trump administration were deeply disappointed in Simion's defeat in the Romanian election and had 'invested' a lot in his victory. I think in light of this we ought to be letting the Trump administration feel a bit of heat over this.
    I know Donald Trump is a stone cold genius but me not being one I'm struggling to understand his MO on sorting Ukraine. He's telegraphing that if there's no peace deal he'll "walk away", ie stop supporting Ukraine with military equipment and $$$. Putin would quite like that. Without the US, Ukraine will probably lose more territory, perhaps even the whole country. Therefore Putin is incentivised to keep fighting. It looks like a strategy to prolong the war rather than stop it.
    He wants to make money in Russia, thinks he has a great relationship with Putin and believes Putin wants the war to end. I think you just need to understand Trump's desire to make money for himself and his family.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,625
    kinabalu said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    carnforth said:

    Second charged arsonist also west Ukrainian-born, though referred to by police as "Romanian National". What an odd situation.

    (I say west Ukrainian because that means probably not Russian-speaking...)

    The Chernivtsi oblast was only added to the Ukrainian SSSR at the end of WW2 by Stalin just for the bantz so lots of people there can claim Romanian citizenship via ancestry.
    'Just for the bantz' = attempt to appease Ukrainian nationalism inside the USSR? I don't imagine Stalin generally doing things for the 'bantz'. Are you one of those who think Lenin created Ukraine?

    On a side note Michael Weiss tweeted that some of the Trump administration were deeply disappointed in Simion's defeat in the Romanian election and had 'invested' a lot in his victory. I think in light of this we ought to be letting the Trump administration feel a bit of heat over this.
    I know Donald Trump is a stone cold genius but me not being one I'm struggling to understand his MO on sorting Ukraine. He's telegraphing that if there's no peace deal he'll "walk away", ie stop supporting Ukraine with military equipment and $$$. Putin would quite like that. Without the US, Ukraine will probably lose more territory, perhaps even the whole country. Therefore Putin is incentivised to keep fighting. It looks like a strategy to prolong the war rather than stop it.
    Yep. he should tell Putin to deal, otherwise he will back Ukraine to the hilt. But this is Trump we are talking about after all and he and the Maga seem to have a soft spot for the dictator.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,483
    Lee Anderson being owned on Politics Live . Absolute imbecile .
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 222
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    But why male models?

    Because it’s the twist that most amused the writers of The Simulation

    Obvs
    Right. But why male models?
    Because it’s genuinely funny

    The sole purpose of the universe is, now, to amuse
    This reminds me vaguely of a theory: the more ridiculous a thing looks, the more likely it is that it was put in place by time travellers coming back from the future to fix things which would have otherwise caused an apocalypse. The stranger things get, the more apocalypses we have been through and had averted by time travellers putting in place bodge jobs. I wish I could remember more of this theory.
    The Trump sassytempt is one of the weirdest “narrative loose ends” of recent times. If I were - god forbid - a thriller writer, there’s no way I’d get away with such an insane plot twist, that comes and goes without explanation

    Ditto lab leak. For two years almost illegal to mention. Now commonly accepted. But the reaction is “oh well shit happens, move on”. 20 million people died and we just *move on*

    I’ve decided the only sane response is to *chuckle knowingly*
    Power and money.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,185
    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dopermean said:

    eek said:

    Dopermean said:

    isam said:

    Tommy Robinson is being released from prison next week. That's eleven months early I think

    Two tier justice
    Robinson, a multiple offender who has shown no contrition for his offending gets parole
    Malkinson and others wrongly convicted serve their full tariff despite being model prisoners, only being released when their convictions are overturned
    Tommy many names was jailed for 18 months
    Malkinson was jailed for 31 months.

    That's the fundamental difference as even if both were given identical treatment and released after 40% of their sentence was served Tommy is going to be out 4 to 5 months earlier.
    No the fundamental difference is this "Malkinson could have been released after 6½ years but was not due to his maintaining his innocence.[15] He was released in 2020 for good behaviour."

    Robinson is a recidivist who has shown no contrition for his offending but is being released after serving a 1/3 of reduced sentence, Malkinson, and others who maintain their innocence, are not eligible for early parole regardless of their risk of reoffending or behaviour in prison, solely because they contest their conviction.

    The latter is institutionalized spite by the Criminal Justice system for questioning the process and safety of the conviction.
    That is a fiendish conundrum, isn't it. You get early release by admitting guilt. But you won't want to do that if you're innocent.
    Seems completely crazy, and would be ludicrously frustrating, on top of a load of other frustrations, for the innocent prisoner

    I am sure I have mentioned this before, but another crazy thing for me is the lesser sentence for attempted murder than murder. If a person who has been stabbed is saved by a passing medic while another a street away dies because no one sees him, why should the two assailants be treated any differently? They both had a desire to kill someone, and acted on it. The intention should be judged, not the outcome
    Yep you can argue that. It's logical. But think where it goes. Eg I have a skinful and drive my car. Scenario A, the cops stop me and I get done for DUI. Scenario B, I hit and kill someone. My behaviour is equally bad in both scenarios, isn't it, but would we want to see the same punishment?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,466
    isam said:

    Peter Hitchens mentioned something in one of his recent columns about nuclear weapons that sprung to mind when I watched the news about the blackouts in Iberia

    “There is another way of using these bombs and it is just as terrifying but much more think-able. It is called Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP).

    You detonate your bomb high above your enemy’s country and it sends down a gigantic burst of energy (surprised British scientists called it ‘Radioflash’ when they first met it during our bomb tests in the 1950s).

    Buildings are not harmed. People are not injured. But the targeted country immediately reverts to the early 19th century.

    Everything powered by electricity stops working, as does everything electronic.

    All modern forms of transport are immobilised. There is no internet, no banking, no modern medical treatment.

    Nothing moves except for steam locomotives, balloons, muscle-powered bicycles or vintage cars. Water pumps shut down. Life as we have grown used to it just stops and the repairs – if they ever happen – will take years.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14550245/PETER-HITCHENS-Keir-Starmer-lunatic-marching-nuclear-war.html

    Hitchens has only just discovered EMP ?
    You can see how the idea might appeal to him.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 27,250
    edited 11:45AM
    isam said:

    The new Mayor of Rotherham, Rukhsana Ismail, is sworn in.

    Allahu akbar!

    🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧🇬🇧


    https://x.com/suffragent_/status/1924734041196024233?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    What's his point? He objects to Muslim Women not being kept in their place?

    (He's a bit of a Rupert Lowe type, btw.)
  • eekeek Posts: 30,016

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Large internet and mobile network outage in Spain

    Spectator Index on X

    It's their overreliance on renewables...
    Could be Mossad

    Nigelb said:

    Leon said:

    BREAKING: Large internet and mobile network outage in Spain

    Spectator Index on X

    It's their overreliance on renewables...
    Could be Mossad
    One entertaining conspiracy theory is that a *friendly* intelligence agency has discovered lots of the back doors and kill switches embedded in Chinese kit.

    Given the politicians habit of ignoring difficult problems, said agency is setting off the vulnerabilities, one-by-one, so that the politicians will be forced to act.
    If the Spanish telecom kit is from Huawei there will be a lot of back door and kill switches attached to what is otherwise a rip off of western code
  • isamisam Posts: 41,731
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Peter Hitchens mentioned something in one of his recent columns about nuclear weapons that sprung to mind when I watched the news about the blackouts in Iberia

    “There is another way of using these bombs and it is just as terrifying but much more think-able. It is called Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP).

    You detonate your bomb high above your enemy’s country and it sends down a gigantic burst of energy (surprised British scientists called it ‘Radioflash’ when they first met it during our bomb tests in the 1950s).

    Buildings are not harmed. People are not injured. But the targeted country immediately reverts to the early 19th century.

    Everything powered by electricity stops working, as does everything electronic.

    All modern forms of transport are immobilised. There is no internet, no banking, no modern medical treatment.

    Nothing moves except for steam locomotives, balloons, muscle-powered bicycles or vintage cars. Water pumps shut down. Life as we have grown used to it just stops and the repairs – if they ever happen – will take years.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14550245/PETER-HITCHENS-Keir-Starmer-lunatic-marching-nuclear-war.html

    Hitchens has only just discovered EMP ?
    You can see how the idea might appeal to him.
    I don’t think he’s only just discovered it, but it was a new one on me
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,608
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Peter Hitchens mentioned something in one of his recent columns about nuclear weapons that sprung to mind when I watched the news about the blackouts in Iberia

    “There is another way of using these bombs and it is just as terrifying but much more think-able. It is called Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP).

    You detonate your bomb high above your enemy’s country and it sends down a gigantic burst of energy (surprised British scientists called it ‘Radioflash’ when they first met it during our bomb tests in the 1950s).

    Buildings are not harmed. People are not injured. But the targeted country immediately reverts to the early 19th century.

    Everything powered by electricity stops working, as does everything electronic.

    All modern forms of transport are immobilised. There is no internet, no banking, no modern medical treatment.

    Nothing moves except for steam locomotives, balloons, muscle-powered bicycles or vintage cars. Water pumps shut down. Life as we have grown used to it just stops and the repairs – if they ever happen – will take years.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14550245/PETER-HITCHENS-Keir-Starmer-lunatic-marching-nuclear-war.html

    Hitchens has only just discovered EMP ?
    You can see how the idea might appeal to him.
    He has finally got round to watching Oceans Eleven!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,185
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    But why male models?

    Because it’s the twist that most amused the writers of The Simulation

    Obvs
    Right. But why male models?
    Because it’s genuinely funny

    The sole purpose of the universe is, now, to amuse
    This reminds me vaguely of a theory: the more ridiculous a thing looks, the more likely it is that it was put in place by time travellers coming back from the future to fix things which would have otherwise caused an apocalypse. The stranger things get, the more apocalypses we have been through and had averted by time travellers putting in place bodge jobs. I wish I could remember more of this theory.
    The Trump sassytempt is one of the weirdest “narrative loose ends” of recent times. If I were - god forbid - a thriller writer, there’s no way I’d get away with such an insane plot twist, that comes and goes without explanation

    Ditto lab leak. For two years almost illegal to mention. Now commonly accepted. But the reaction is “oh well shit happens, move on”. 20 million people died and we just *move on*

    I’ve decided the only sane response is to *chuckle knowingly*
    Totally. Although the Trump shooting is explained and LabLeak is not commonly accepted.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,749
    isam said:

    Peter Hitchens mentioned something in one of his recent columns about nuclear weapons that sprung to mind when I watched the news about the blackouts in Iberia

    “There is another way of using these bombs and it is just as terrifying but much more think-able. It is called Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP).

    You detonate your bomb high above your enemy’s country and it sends down a gigantic burst of energy (surprised British scientists called it ‘Radioflash’ when they first met it during our bomb tests in the 1950s).

    Buildings are not harmed. People are not injured. But the targeted country immediately reverts to the early 19th century.

    Everything powered by electricity stops working, as does everything electronic.

    All modern forms of transport are immobilised. There is no internet, no banking, no modern medical treatment.

    Nothing moves except for steam locomotives, balloons, muscle-powered bicycles or vintage cars. Water pumps shut down. Life as we have grown used to it just stops and the repairs – if they ever happen – will take years.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14550245/PETER-HITCHENS-Keir-Starmer-lunatic-marching-nuclear-war.html

    Whether in the 1980’s or today, Russia’s little helpers will always raise the bogeyman of nuclear war.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,731
    kinabalu said:

    isam said:

    kinabalu said:

    Dopermean said:

    eek said:

    Dopermean said:

    isam said:

    Tommy Robinson is being released from prison next week. That's eleven months early I think

    Two tier justice
    Robinson, a multiple offender who has shown no contrition for his offending gets parole
    Malkinson and others wrongly convicted serve their full tariff despite being model prisoners, only being released when their convictions are overturned
    Tommy many names was jailed for 18 months
    Malkinson was jailed for 31 months.

    That's the fundamental difference as even if both were given identical treatment and released after 40% of their sentence was served Tommy is going to be out 4 to 5 months earlier.
    No the fundamental difference is this "Malkinson could have been released after 6½ years but was not due to his maintaining his innocence.[15] He was released in 2020 for good behaviour."

    Robinson is a recidivist who has shown no contrition for his offending but is being released after serving a 1/3 of reduced sentence, Malkinson, and others who maintain their innocence, are not eligible for early parole regardless of their risk of reoffending or behaviour in prison, solely because they contest their conviction.

    The latter is institutionalized spite by the Criminal Justice system for questioning the process and safety of the conviction.
    That is a fiendish conundrum, isn't it. You get early release by admitting guilt. But you won't want to do that if you're innocent.
    Seems completely crazy, and would be ludicrously frustrating, on top of a load of other frustrations, for the innocent prisoner

    I am sure I have mentioned this before, but another crazy thing for me is the lesser sentence for attempted murder than murder. If a person who has been stabbed is saved by a passing medic while another a street away dies because no one sees him, why should the two assailants be treated any differently? They both had a desire to kill someone, and acted on it. The intention should be judged, not the outcome
    Yep you can argue that. It's logical. But think where it goes. Eg I have a skinful and drive my car. Scenario A, the cops stop me and I get done for DUI. Scenario B, I hit and kill someone. My behaviour is equally bad in both scenarios, isn't it, but would we want to see the same punishment?
    I see what you mean, but I think there is a decent argument that driving after having a skinful and getting away with it should be punished as if you’d hit and killed someone. The person who did the latter is no worse than the former
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 77,466
    edited 11:49AM
    DavidL said:

    theProle said:

    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    Thames Water is bringing out my inner Bolshevik.

    It's a blatant lie that customers won't end up paying for any of this.
    And there is fuck all reason for a monopoly utility to be paying this sort of cost for a loan - other than that the company is effectively bankrupt.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/may/20/thames-water-chair-mps-bonuses-sir-adrian-montague
    ..The UK’s largest water company is in a desperate race to raise funds and persuade the water regulator to let it off hundreds of millions of pounds of fines or risk being renationalised. The company won a court battle which allowed it to accept the loan, which comes with an expensive 9.75% interest rate and fees...

    Which do you think will cost us more in the long run ?
    Taking it into public ownership - or handing it over to yet another bunch of foreign venture capitalists ?

    ..The company, which serves about a quarter of the country’s population, is loaded with £20bn in debt and is now in exclusive discussions with the private equity group KKR over a potential purchase of the business...

    The reality is that the taxpayer and the bill payers are largely one and the same. Saving the taxpayer the cost if bailing the company out - at the expense of making customers pay that saving, plus whatever exorbitant dividends the next set of owners award themselves - is the falsest of economies.
    I still don't understand why either the tax payers or bill payers need to be even slightly on the hook for this.
    Some idiots lent a bunch of vultures a load of money, who took the money and ran off with it. This money was secured against the assets of a business. The core business itself is profitable, just not sufficiently profitable to keep up the loan repayments.

    The idiots now want the customers of the business and/or the taxpayers to pay them back. In any normal business in this situation you'd summon some administrators, sell the business, and give the idiots pennies in the £ of their back. Or alternatively they could do a debt - equity swap and end up the proud owners.

    There is literally zero reason why this can't happen with Thames Water, other than the government and regulator both apparently having decided to bale out the idiots instead.

    Yep, I'm with you. Both the equity and the bond holders need to be wiped out here, if only to show that there is a risk in this kind of fraud. Some of the fraudsters and the money they stole is long gone and outwith our jurisdiction but the cards of those who stole it should be heavily marked so they don't get to do this to us again.

    Oh, and the management of the regulator should be sacked for complete and utter incompetence. Without exception.
    Agreed.
    But the reality is that the infrastructure will still require a large amount of investment.

    Wipe out the equity; haircut the bond holders (throwing a small bone to lenders is just sensible politics for a country with our borrowing requirements), and take the assets into public ownership.

    Tender for private sector management on time limited contracts.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,858
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    But why male models?

    Because it’s the twist that most amused the writers of The Simulation

    Obvs
    Right. But why male models?
    Because it’s genuinely funny

    The sole purpose of the universe is, now, to amuse
    This reminds me vaguely of a theory: the more ridiculous a thing looks, the more likely it is that it was put in place by time travellers coming back from the future to fix things which would have otherwise caused an apocalypse. The stranger things get, the more apocalypses we have been through and had averted by time travellers putting in place bodge jobs. I wish I could remember more of this theory.
    The Trump sassytempt is one of the weirdest “narrative loose ends” of recent times. If I were - god forbid - a thriller writer, there’s no way I’d get away with such an insane plot twist, that comes and goes without explanation

    Ditto lab leak. For two years almost illegal to mention. Now commonly accepted. But the reaction is “oh well shit happens, move on”. 20 million people died and we just *move on*

    I’ve decided the only sane response is to *chuckle knowingly*
    Totally. Although the Trump shooting is explained and LabLeak is not commonly accepted.
    Observing your tiny mind at work is like staring in a rock pool, watching the anemones and minnows
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,185

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Things come to an end.

    The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.

    But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.

    Yes the left is (sadly from my pov) in the doldrums. Eg in all of the mainstream discourse about policies, priorities, problems etc there is hardly a mention these days of what is and always has been my biggest political interest - the reduction of inequality. Nobody seems bothered about it. Or if they are it's just accepted there's no appetite or realistic possibility of doing anything serious in that space. It's afflicted me too if I'm honest. I don't care as much as I used to. If something is not happening it seems a bit pointless to stay invested in it. Then again, tell that to a lifelong Crystal Palace supporter.
    The Unherd lot will tell you that (paraphrasing wildly) identity politics is a tool for the corporate west to distract from economic inequality. I'm not necessarily bought into this as a conspiracy, but it certainly has this effect. And thus, the working classes turn away from the left, because the left deals with issues of increasing irrelevance to them.
    Trouble is, the antiwoke tendency (as exemplified on UnHerd) is not noticeably supportive of egalitarian policies
    Why should it be? There are those who are* and think woke gets in the way but for others who aren't really egalitarian they're just describing a phenomenon.

    *Try Left Is Not Woke by Susan Neiman.
    No reason in general. But when people make out that their opposition to socially left policies is due to a burning desire to improve the economic lot of the working class you'd expect them to have more in their locker on that score than stopping immigration. If they don't it makes me suspect they are driven by other things entirely.

    (thanks for the rec)
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,625

    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    Peter Hitchens mentioned something in one of his recent columns about nuclear weapons that sprung to mind when I watched the news about the blackouts in Iberia

    “There is another way of using these bombs and it is just as terrifying but much more think-able. It is called Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP).

    You detonate your bomb high above your enemy’s country and it sends down a gigantic burst of energy (surprised British scientists called it ‘Radioflash’ when they first met it during our bomb tests in the 1950s).

    Buildings are not harmed. People are not injured. But the targeted country immediately reverts to the early 19th century.

    Everything powered by electricity stops working, as does everything electronic.

    All modern forms of transport are immobilised. There is no internet, no banking, no modern medical treatment.

    Nothing moves except for steam locomotives, balloons, muscle-powered bicycles or vintage cars. Water pumps shut down. Life as we have grown used to it just stops and the repairs – if they ever happen – will take years.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14550245/PETER-HITCHENS-Keir-Starmer-lunatic-marching-nuclear-war.html

    Hitchens has only just discovered EMP ?
    You can see how the idea might appeal to him.
    He has finally got round to watching Oceans Eleven!
    He probably thinks it's oceans 2
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,573
    Sean_F said:

    isam said:

    Peter Hitchens mentioned something in one of his recent columns about nuclear weapons that sprung to mind when I watched the news about the blackouts in Iberia

    “There is another way of using these bombs and it is just as terrifying but much more think-able. It is called Electro-Magnetic Pulse (EMP).

    You detonate your bomb high above your enemy’s country and it sends down a gigantic burst of energy (surprised British scientists called it ‘Radioflash’ when they first met it during our bomb tests in the 1950s).

    Buildings are not harmed. People are not injured. But the targeted country immediately reverts to the early 19th century.

    Everything powered by electricity stops working, as does everything electronic.

    All modern forms of transport are immobilised. There is no internet, no banking, no modern medical treatment.

    Nothing moves except for steam locomotives, balloons, muscle-powered bicycles or vintage cars. Water pumps shut down. Life as we have grown used to it just stops and the repairs – if they ever happen – will take years.”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-14550245/PETER-HITCHENS-Keir-Starmer-lunatic-marching-nuclear-war.html

    Whether in the 1980’s or today, Russia’s little helpers will always raise the bogeyman of nuclear war.
    The events of the last four years show that we need nukes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 45,185

    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Sean_F said:

    Things come to an end.

    The Conservatives relied upon persuading the elites that they could protect their property; persuading centrists that they could keep the right in check; and persuading the right that they were their least bad option.

    But, nobody really believes that radical socialists now threaten property; centrists are furious about the EU, and the right view the Conservatives as being as bad as the rest.

    Yes the left is (sadly from my pov) in the doldrums. Eg in all of the mainstream discourse about policies, priorities, problems etc there is hardly a mention these days of what is and always has been my biggest political interest - the reduction of inequality. Nobody seems bothered about it. Or if they are it's just accepted there's no appetite or realistic possibility of doing anything serious in that space. It's afflicted me too if I'm honest. I don't care as much as I used to. If something is not happening it seems a bit pointless to stay invested in it. Then again, tell that to a lifelong Crystal Palace supporter.
    The Unherd lot will tell you that (paraphrasing wildly) identity politics is a tool for the corporate west to distract from economic inequality. I'm not necessarily bought into this as a conspiracy, but it certainly has this effect. And thus, the working classes turn away from the left, because the left deals with issues of increasing irrelevance to them.
    Trouble is, the antiwoke tendency (as exemplified on UnHerd) is not noticeably supportive of egalitarian policies. My suspicion is they use the "immigration damages the working class" argument as cover for the real objection to it - a belief the west should stay white.
    Also as a second distraction from the effects of the post-Thatcher settlement, just like the left version can sometimes be, too. The UK needs
    a publication, media space, or platform that isn't afraid to reveal the entire scene.
    Yes, let's get going on that. You can edit, I'll do the accounts.
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