What might save Kemi B is a sense that things are so hopeless/Farage will win doing the things we would like to do that there's no perceived point in changing leader. As Sam Freedman put it last week,
Plus, the fight has just gone out of a lot of them. They seem resigned rather than eager to plot yet another leadership change, which is perhaps the most worrying sign of all for them. Tories not wanting to plot is like a usually vivacious child lying listless on the sofa.
Besides, even if one takes the optimistic spin that it's only as bad as IDS (it's not- it's far worse), who is the Michael Howard figure? Who is broadly tolerated enough to give the sinking ship a bit of buoyancy?
Time to provide…the S T R I D E
Stride would at least likely hold the 24% who voted for Rishi at the last GE, Kemi isn't doing even that, the latest polls have the Tories on 20-21% on average and in some post local election polls even under 20%.
I suspect she will be given a year or 2 to turn things round but if that doesn't change and a number of Tory MPs fear losing their seats they will act and probably put Stride or Jenrick in by coronation
That's certainly the easy do nothing and hope something turns up option. But what if they're polling 12% by then ?
Then Boris has to be recalled
You think at that point it would make a difference ?
Yup, More in Common has a Boris led Conservatives on 26%, with Reform on 23% and Labour on 22% and the LDs 15%.
Indeed at this point Boris may be the only chance not only to save Tory seats but also to stop Farage becoming PM assuming we don't get PR before the next general election and even then Farage could become PM if Reform win most votes and Reform and the Tories combined reached 50% or more as they did with BMG yesterday https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
But then the binary choice of Johnson or Farage as PM is not dissimilar to pondering a menu whose choice is limited to either a s**t sandwich or s**t on toast.
What might save Kemi B is a sense that things are so hopeless/Farage will win doing the things we would like to do that there's no perceived point in changing leader. As Sam Freedman put it last week,
Plus, the fight has just gone out of a lot of them. They seem resigned rather than eager to plot yet another leadership change, which is perhaps the most worrying sign of all for them. Tories not wanting to plot is like a usually vivacious child lying listless on the sofa.
Besides, even if one takes the optimistic spin that it's only as bad as IDS (it's not- it's far worse), who is the Michael Howard figure? Who is broadly tolerated enough to give the sinking ship a bit of buoyancy?
Time to provide…the S T R I D E
Take a walk on the wild side.
Melvyn came from Ealing, GLA
Take a walk on the mild side
That sounds more like a Black Country pub crawl.
I believe Lou wasn't averse to a pint of Banks's between the heroin fixes.
What might save Kemi B is a sense that things are so hopeless/Farage will win doing the things we would like to do that there's no perceived point in changing leader. As Sam Freedman put it last week,
Plus, the fight has just gone out of a lot of them. They seem resigned rather than eager to plot yet another leadership change, which is perhaps the most worrying sign of all for them. Tories not wanting to plot is like a usually vivacious child lying listless on the sofa.
Besides, even if one takes the optimistic spin that it's only as bad as IDS (it's not- it's far worse), who is the Michael Howard figure? Who is broadly tolerated enough to give the sinking ship a bit of buoyancy?
Time to provide…the S T R I D E
Stride would at least likely hold the 24% who voted for Rishi at the last GE, Kemi isn't doing even that, the latest polls have the Tories on 20-21% on average and in some post local election polls even under 20%.
I suspect she will be given a year or 2 to turn things round but if that doesn't change and a number of Tory MPs fear losing their seats they will act and probably put Stride or Jenrick in by coronation
That's certainly the easy do nothing and hope something turns up option. But what if they're polling 12% by then ?
Then Boris has to be recalled
You think at that point it would make a difference ?
Yup, More in Common has a Boris led Conservatives on 26%, with Reform on 23% and Labour on 22% and the LDs 15%.
Indeed at this point Boris may be the only chance not only to save Tory seats but also to stop Farage becoming PM assuming we don't get PR before the next general election and even then Farage could become PM if Reform win most votes and Reform and the Tories combined reached 50% or more as they did with BMG yesterday https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
But then the binary choice of Johnson or Farage as PM is not dissimilar to pondering a menu whose choice is limited to either a s**t sandwich or s**t on toast.
On panicking, Labour has the advantage of being in government. Ita not unknown for govta to be unpopular midterm. And they have over 400 incumbent, most first time incumbent MPs.
The Tories have none of these, they are in real trouble.
What might save Kemi B is a sense that things are so hopeless/Farage will win doing the things we would like to do that there's no perceived point in changing leader. As Sam Freedman put it last week,
Plus, the fight has just gone out of a lot of them. They seem resigned rather than eager to plot yet another leadership change, which is perhaps the most worrying sign of all for them. Tories not wanting to plot is like a usually vivacious child lying listless on the sofa.
Besides, even if one takes the optimistic spin that it's only as bad as IDS (it's not- it's far worse), who is the Michael Howard figure? Who is broadly tolerated enough to give the sinking ship a bit of buoyancy?
Time to provide…the S T R I D E
Stride would at least likely hold the 24% who voted for Rishi at the last GE, Kemi isn't doing even that, the latest polls have the Tories on 20-21% on average and in some post local election polls even under 20%.
I suspect she will be given a year or 2 to turn things round but if that doesn't change and a number of Tory MPs fear losing their seats they will act and probably put Stride or Jenrick in by coronation
That's certainly the easy do nothing and hope something turns up option. But what if they're polling 12% by then ?
Then Boris has to be recalled
Does Boris Johnson have it in him to steer a party in opposition through adversity? He was popular for a while but I doubt if that can be reignited.
Being in opposition doesn't require any real hard work or responsibility, as long as you have charisma like Boris does all you need to do is say how crap the government is doing all day and make an impact at PMQs as Boris would.
Boris is also the only Conservative who can reach the redwall voters who voted for him in 2019, for Labour in 2024 and have now gone Reform
My view is that Johnson is now the 'break glass in case of emergency' candidate, so I've certainly got a handful of quid on him being leader.
A massive issue though is how he gets onto the candidates list.
What might save Kemi B is a sense that things are so hopeless/Farage will win doing the things we would like to do that there's no perceived point in changing leader. As Sam Freedman put it last week,
Plus, the fight has just gone out of a lot of them. They seem resigned rather than eager to plot yet another leadership change, which is perhaps the most worrying sign of all for them. Tories not wanting to plot is like a usually vivacious child lying listless on the sofa.
Besides, even if one takes the optimistic spin that it's only as bad as IDS (it's not- it's far worse), who is the Michael Howard figure? Who is broadly tolerated enough to give the sinking ship a bit of buoyancy?
Time to provide…the S T R I D E
Stride would at least likely hold the 24% who voted for Rishi at the last GE, Kemi isn't doing even that, the latest polls have the Tories on 20-21% on average and in some post local election polls even under 20%.
I suspect she will be given a year or 2 to turn things round but if that doesn't change and a number of Tory MPs fear losing their seats they will act and probably put Stride or Jenrick in by coronation
That's certainly the easy do nothing and hope something turns up option. But what if they're polling 12% by then ?
Then Boris has to be recalled
You think at that point it would make a difference ?
Yup, More in Common has a Boris led Conservatives on 26%, with Reform on 23% and Labour on 22% and the LDs 15%.
Indeed at this point Boris may be the only chance not only to save Tory seats but also to stop Farage becoming PM assuming we don't get PR before the next general election and even then Farage could become PM if Reform win most votes and Reform and the Tories combined reached 50% or more as they did with BMG yesterday https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
But then the binary choice of Johnson or Farage as PM is not dissimilar to pondering a menu whose choice is limited to either a s**t sandwich or s**t on toast.
'If Boris Johnson wasn’t pondering a political return, he wouldn’t have given an interview to GB News this week – in the aftermath of the Conservatives’ worst-ever local elections. “I’m not convinced I’m in a position to do that at the moment,” he said, when questioned about a potential comeback. The door was very deliberately left ajar..And according to Luke Tryl, one of the most sober pollsters in the business, “to a surprising degree across our focus groups in recent weeks the one Tory – particularly those leaning Reform – spoken of with any affection was Johnson… the difference between Boris and other Tories is, for whatever reason, he passes that connection/relatability/not a typical Tory test.”
This presumably explains the recent survey by More in Common, of which Tryl is executive director, which found that the Conservatives would overturn an eight-point Reform poll lead and take a three-point lead themselves were Johnson to lead them again. The replacement of Badenoch by Robert Jenrick would, according to this survey, make no difference to the Tory position.'
Boris would surely improve the Tory performance - he's a vote winner. The problem comes after - he lacks the ability and the purpose to govern .
Voters don't seem interested in serious leaders making tough choices in government at the moment, they rejected Rishi and now seem to be rejecting Starmer
What might save Kemi B is a sense that things are so hopeless/Farage will win doing the things we would like to do that there's no perceived point in changing leader. As Sam Freedman put it last week,
Plus, the fight has just gone out of a lot of them. They seem resigned rather than eager to plot yet another leadership change, which is perhaps the most worrying sign of all for them. Tories not wanting to plot is like a usually vivacious child lying listless on the sofa.
Besides, even if one takes the optimistic spin that it's only as bad as IDS (it's not- it's far worse), who is the Michael Howard figure? Who is broadly tolerated enough to give the sinking ship a bit of buoyancy?
Time to provide…the S T R I D E
Stride would at least likely hold the 24% who voted for Rishi at the last GE, Kemi isn't doing even that, the latest polls have the Tories on 20-21% on average and in some post local election polls even under 20%.
I suspect she will be given a year or 2 to turn things round but if that doesn't change and a number of Tory MPs fear losing their seats they will act and probably put Stride or Jenrick in by coronation
That's certainly the easy do nothing and hope something turns up option. But what if they're polling 12% by then ?
Remember the Yes, Prime Minister four stage plan:
In stage one we say nothing is going to happen. Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it. In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do. Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.
I reckon the Conservatives are currently at stage two (if they are Reform-curious) or three (if they are wets).
Stage 3 definitely. "There's no one who could usefully replace Kemi..."
What might save Kemi B is a sense that things are so hopeless/Farage will win doing the things we would like to do that there's no perceived point in changing leader. As Sam Freedman put it last week,
Plus, the fight has just gone out of a lot of them. They seem resigned rather than eager to plot yet another leadership change, which is perhaps the most worrying sign of all for them. Tories not wanting to plot is like a usually vivacious child lying listless on the sofa.
Besides, even if one takes the optimistic spin that it's only as bad as IDS (it's not- it's far worse), who is the Michael Howard figure? Who is broadly tolerated enough to give the sinking ship a bit of buoyancy?
Time to provide…the S T R I D E
Stride would at least likely hold the 24% who voted for Rishi at the last GE, Kemi isn't doing even that, the latest polls have the Tories on 20-21% on average and in some post local election polls even under 20%.
I suspect she will be given a year or 2 to turn things round but if that doesn't change and a number of Tory MPs fear losing their seats they will act and probably put Stride or Jenrick in by coronation
That's certainly the easy do nothing and hope something turns up option. But what if they're polling 12% by then ?
Then Boris has to be recalled
You think at that point it would make a difference ?
Yup, More in Common has a Boris led Conservatives on 26%, with Reform on 23% and Labour on 22% and the LDs 15%.
Indeed at this point Boris may be the only chance not only to save Tory seats but also to stop Farage becoming PM assuming we don't get PR before the next general election and even then Farage could become PM if Reform win most votes and Reform and the Tories combined reached 50% or more as they did with BMG yesterday https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
But then the binary choice of Johnson or Farage as PM is not dissimilar to pondering a menu whose choice is limited to either a s**t sandwich or s**t on toast.
There must be some brainless tory gimp in a safe-ish seat who could be cajoled, Canadian style, to step aside for the Lord of Misrule. They can always promise the dopey sap a peerage or High Commissioner to Kiribati.
At some point Big Rish is going to foutre le camp, so there's one possibility.
Boris would surely improve the Tory performance - he's a vote winner. The problem comes after - he lacks the ability and the purpose to govern .
Voters don't seem interested in serious leaders making tough choices in government at the moment, they rejected Rishi and now seem to be rejecting Starmer
At some point voters won’t have a choice, reality will make the choice for them
What might save Kemi B is a sense that things are so hopeless/Farage will win doing the things we would like to do that there's no perceived point in changing leader. As Sam Freedman put it last week,
Plus, the fight has just gone out of a lot of them. They seem resigned rather than eager to plot yet another leadership change, which is perhaps the most worrying sign of all for them. Tories not wanting to plot is like a usually vivacious child lying listless on the sofa.
Besides, even if one takes the optimistic spin that it's only as bad as IDS (it's not- it's far worse), who is the Michael Howard figure? Who is broadly tolerated enough to give the sinking ship a bit of buoyancy?
Time to provide…the S T R I D E
Stride would at least likely hold the 24% who voted for Rishi at the last GE, Kemi isn't doing even that, the latest polls have the Tories on 20-21% on average and in some post local election polls even under 20%.
I suspect she will be given a year or 2 to turn things round but if that doesn't change and a number of Tory MPs fear losing their seats they will act and probably put Stride or Jenrick in by coronation
That's certainly the easy do nothing and hope something turns up option. But what if they're polling 12% by then ?
Then Boris has to be recalled
You think at that point it would make a difference ?
Yup, More in Common has a Boris led Conservatives on 26%, with Reform on 23% and Labour on 22% and the LDs 15%.
Indeed at this point Boris may be the only chance not only to save Tory seats but also to stop Farage becoming PM assuming we don't get PR before the next general election and even then Farage could become PM if Reform win most votes and Reform and the Tories combined reached 50% or more as they did with BMG yesterday https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
But then the binary choice of Johnson or Farage as PM is not dissimilar to pondering a menu whose choice is limited to either a s**t sandwich or s**t on toast.
» show previous quotes For Trump to win his trade war, he has to cure America of its desire to buy foreign "stuff".
Whilst making stuff foreigners want to buy.
I said: And he is fundamentally correct that the continuous and massive trade deficits that the US has run with the rest of the world are impoverishing the US. The debt that the US has piled up over the last 30 years means that there is a continuous flow of money from the US to other countries reducing domestic consumption and investment. A lot of this is in bonds but, as with the UK, there is also an increasing number of US businesses being sold to finance this deficit. It is making the US poorer.
What he is fundamentally incorrect about is his batshit "solutions" to the problem. Erratic tariffs and economic policies positively discourage investment in the US. His bizarre behaviour at borders is costing the US tourist market tens of billions. He has failed to comprehend that his policies restrict imports to which manufacturers in the US can add value further damaging production. He has failed to appreciate that the inflationary consequences of his actions makes it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Biden's solutions to the same problem, such as the CHIPs Act, were a breach of GATT rules but the US has destroyed that institution by making the court non quorate by vetoing new appointments. But. right or wrong, those policies positively encouraged investment in manufacturing in the US. They were a far smarter way of addressing what is a real problem for the US.
In the latest news Trump has threatened the Mattel Toy company with 100% tariffs, despite being a company based in California, not a country.
Boris would surely improve the Tory performance - he's a vote winner. The problem comes after - he lacks the ability and the purpose to govern .
The problem with these hypothetical polls is that Nigel Farage will remind voters about the Boriswave immigration and the Tories will be back down polling in the teens.
I am sure the Red Wall will vote for the guy that delivered record breaking immigration.
Well, they have voted for Nigel Farage despite his fairly key role in it.
Until he's in government, Farage can always say it would have been different with him in power.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes.
But while India officially rejects Pakistani claims to have damaged Indian air force bases and destroyed Indian S400s, I don't think they've denied the shooting down of Indian planes.
US "officials" say Pakistan used Chinese-made J-10 planes to shoot down at least 2 Indian air force planes.
Boris would surely improve the Tory performance - he's a vote winner. The problem comes after - he lacks the ability and the purpose to govern .
Voters don't seem interested in serious leaders making tough choices in government at the moment, they rejected Rishi and now seem to be rejecting Starmer
At some point voters won’t have a choice, reality will make the choice for them
Not if they just swap populist right leader for populist left leader for populist right leader and back or we get PR
Boris would surely improve the Tory performance - he's a vote winner. The problem comes after - he lacks the ability and the purpose to govern .
Voters don't seem interested in serious leaders making tough choices in government at the moment, they rejected Rishi and now seem to be rejecting Starmer
At some point voters won’t have a choice, reality will make the choice for them
Not if they just swap populist right leader for populist left leader for populist right leader and back or we get PR
What I mean is that eventually ignored problems come home to roost
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes.
But while India officially rejects Pakistani claims to have damaged Indian air force bases and destroyed Indian S400s, I don't think they've denied the shooting down of Indian planes.
US "officials" say Pakistan used Chinese-made J-10 planes to shoot down at least 2 Indian air force planes.
Thinking about it a bit, here's some thoughts on what Kemi should do. The overarching idea is to win a series of consecutive victories, in increasing circles. These being, in Central Office, the Shadow Cabinet, the PCP (and Home Nations PCPs), the members/activists/councillors, and (sadly probably to a localised degree) the electorate. You fight the battle on your terms, win one, you take that territory, you fight the next. At the same time, the policy agenda needs to accelerate and be visibly taking shape. It's indefensible for Tories to have nothing to go on except defending the Sunak Government.
I think this because it has occurred to me recently how little Kemi has achieved within the party, when following the devastating defeat in the locals, someone briefs to the press that she 'spent the day doomscrolling on her phone'. I mean, there can't have been more than three or four people with her in the room. That sort of gratuitous disloyalty by those closest will never, ever result in an election victory. And it is totally absent from Reform, or, despite the the Governments' travails, Labour.
In CCHQ, I suggest what Kemi does (and I admit this aligns with my personal wishes) is lets David Campbell-Bannerman and Priti Patel (moving Patel to Party Chairman) and the Conservative Democratic Movement go through the party aparatus like a dose of salts. No more Dougie and crew. No more backbiters. This is existential now, because much as Kemi was put there by these forces, they will turn on her (and already are) in favour of Reform, as power ebbs from the Tories. Sack everyone and put a totally new team in.
Once CCHQ is a functioning, Tory-supporting organisation, concentrate on more effective Shadow Cabinet. This point was made on The Daily T, where are some of the Shadow Cabinet? Mel Stride is pants imo, but at least he's out there. Where is Shadow Health Sec Ed Argar? For that matter, WHO is Shadow Health Sec Ed Argar? I don't even know what he looks like, and I'm a politics nut. I think Hunt should shadow Health. Jenrick to be promoted to Shadow Home Sec. Get rid of the dead wood.
The PCP then needs to be LED. They need to be united around Kemi's fabled 'plan' and it would not hurt the party at all to have a Clause 4 moment and lose a few Simon Hoares and Caroline Nokes to the Lib Dems on a particular issue. Leaving the ECHR would be a fair one to choose. If anything, it would hurt the Lib Dems at the next election to be seen as a rest home for disgruntled Tories.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes.
But while India officially rejects Pakistani claims to have damaged Indian air force bases and destroyed Indian S400s, I don't think they've denied the shooting down of Indian planes.
US "officials" say Pakistan used Chinese-made J-10 planes to shoot down at least 2 Indian air force planes.
I think both countries are finding out exactly how prepared they really are.
The whole thing reminds me of a very large scale version of Armenia-Azerbaijan, with Kashmir being Karabakh. Similar levels of spite and petulance, similar use of conflict as a proxy trade show for different weaponry suppliers.
What might save Kemi B is a sense that things are so hopeless/Farage will win doing the things we would like to do that there's no perceived point in changing leader. As Sam Freedman put it last week,
Plus, the fight has just gone out of a lot of them. They seem resigned rather than eager to plot yet another leadership change, which is perhaps the most worrying sign of all for them. Tories not wanting to plot is like a usually vivacious child lying listless on the sofa.
Besides, even if one takes the optimistic spin that it's only as bad as IDS (it's not- it's far worse), who is the Michael Howard figure? Who is broadly tolerated enough to give the sinking ship a bit of buoyancy?
Time to provide…the S T R I D E
Stride would at least likely hold the 24% who voted for Rishi at the last GE, Kemi isn't doing even that, the latest polls have the Tories on 20-21% on average and in some post local election polls even under 20%.
I suspect she will be given a year or 2 to turn things round but if that doesn't change and a number of Tory MPs fear losing their seats they will act and probably put Stride or Jenrick in by coronation
That's certainly the easy do nothing and hope something turns up option. But what if they're polling 12% by then ?
Then Boris has to be recalled
You think at that point it would make a difference ?
Yup, More in Common has a Boris led Conservatives on 26%, with Reform on 23% and Labour on 22% and the LDs 15%.
Indeed at this point Boris may be the only chance not only to save Tory seats but also to stop Farage becoming PM assuming we don't get PR before the next general election and even then Farage could become PM if Reform win most votes and Reform and the Tories combined reached 50% or more as they did with BMG yesterday https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
But then the binary choice of Johnson or Farage as PM is not dissimilar to pondering a menu whose choice is limited to either a s**t sandwich or s**t on toast.
There must be some brainless tory gimp in a safe-ish seat who could be cajoled, Canadian style, to step aside for the Lord of Misrule. They can always promise the dopey sap a peerage or High Commissioner to Kiribati.
At some point Big Rish is going to foutre le camp, so there's one possibility.
I do wonder whether we might see a Patrick Gordon Walker style backlash if Johnson was foisted on a constituency.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes..
Even if that were true, which seems highly unlikely, they would run out of money and missiles very rapidly if they were using S400s to shoot down drones.
As for the aircraft, wreckage pictures are quite well documented, including at least one Rafale.
The IAF seems to have been quite careless about Pakistani capabilities.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes.
But while India officially rejects Pakistani claims to have damaged Indian air force bases and destroyed Indian S400s, I don't think they've denied the shooting down of Indian planes.
US "officials" say Pakistan used Chinese-made J-10 planes to shoot down at least 2 Indian air force planes.
Obviously, there's a lot more to it than a simplistic analysis of J-10/PL-15 combo outguns Rafale/Mica but at the same time the scoreboard doesn't lie.
The air-to-air exchanges have, so far, vindicated DJT's strategy of stopping the arsing around in the armpit of Eastern Europe and focusing on the real strategic threat of Chyna.
» show previous quotes For Trump to win his trade war, he has to cure America of its desire to buy foreign "stuff".
Whilst making stuff foreigners want to buy.
I said: And he is fundamentally correct that the continuous and massive trade deficits that the US has run with the rest of the world are impoverishing the US. The debt that the US has piled up over the last 30 years means that there is a continuous flow of money from the US to other countries reducing domestic consumption and investment. A lot of this is in bonds but, as with the UK, there is also an increasing number of US businesses being sold to finance this deficit. It is making the US poorer.
What he is fundamentally incorrect about is his batshit "solutions" to the problem. Erratic tariffs and economic policies positively discourage investment in the US. His bizarre behaviour at borders is costing the US tourist market tens of billions. He has failed to comprehend that his policies restrict imports to which manufacturers in the US can add value further damaging production. He has failed to appreciate that the inflationary consequences of his actions makes it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Biden's solutions to the same problem, such as the CHIPs Act, were a breach of GATT rules but the US has destroyed that institution by making the court non quorate by vetoing new appointments. But. right or wrong, those policies positively encouraged investment in manufacturing in the US. They were a far smarter way of addressing what is a real problem for the US.
In the latest news Trump has threatened the Mattel Toy company with 100% tariffs, despite being a company based in California, not a country.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes..
Even if that were true, which seems highly unlikely, they would run out of money and missiles very rapidly if they were using S400s to shoot down drones.
As for the aircraft, wreckage pictures are quite well documented, including at least one Rafale.
The IAF seems to have been quite careless about Pakistani capabilities.
It suggests unfortunately that the Indian middle class is very online, and embedded in its own Twittersphere where the alternative facts rain down.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes.
But while India officially rejects Pakistani claims to have damaged Indian air force bases and destroyed Indian S400s, I don't think they've denied the shooting down of Indian planes.
US "officials" say Pakistan used Chinese-made J-10 planes to shoot down at least 2 Indian air force planes.
Obviously, there's a lot more to it than a simplistic analysis of J-10/PL-15 combo outguns Rafale/Mica but at the same time the scoreboard doesn't lie.
The air-to-air exchanges have, so far, vindicated DJT's strategy of stopping the arsing around in the armpit of Eastern Europe and focusing on the real strategic threat of Chyna.
India may be suffering from complacency. They’ve generally handed the Pakistan military’s arse to them, in previous conflicts.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes.
But while India officially rejects Pakistani claims to have damaged Indian air force bases and destroyed Indian S400s, I don't think they've denied the shooting down of Indian planes.
US "officials" say Pakistan used Chinese-made J-10 planes to shoot down at least 2 Indian air force planes.
I think both countries are finding out exactly how prepared they really are.
The whole thing reminds me of a very large scale version of Armenia-Azerbaijan, with Kashmir being Karabakh. Similar levels of spite and petulance, similar use of conflict as a proxy trade show for different weaponry suppliers.
Maybe it is not just Kemi Badenoch leadership under threat, what about Starmer ?
I posted this at the end of the last thread
The rise of Reform in the polls is remarkable and shows no signs of abating
Switching on the news this morning Starmer is in Ukraine with other EU leaders and Zelensky posing for photos, and I am beginning to come to the conclusion no matter for all Starmer's efforts with the US and India he has lost the dressing room in football parlance
The question for Labour if the polls do not improve will be is Starmer the problem, as he certainly does not have any personality nor political nous
His press conference with Trump from the car factory was toe curling with his Donald and Keir familiarity and it may be reaching the point nothing he says or does improves Labour's polling
Indeed with the huge NHS cuts muted and the immigration debate not helping what can save him if Labour want to win in 2028/9 ?
Reform rising is definitely remarkable, but then...
Michael Foot was 16% ahead in the polls at this stage in the 1979-1983 Parliament.
Neil Kinnock had a 28 pt lead during the 1987-1992 Parliament.
Ed Miliband was 11% up at this stage in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
Theresa May was 25% up in a poll just 6 weeks before an election she won by 2.5%
Farage's Brexit Party had a 6% poll lead six months before the 2019 General election. By the time they stood down candidates, they were already polling 25-30 pts behind the Tories, and 15-20pts behind Labour, and on election day got just 2% of the vote.
Boris Johnson had an 18pt lead in 2021. In the same Parliament, Starmer had a 30pt poll lead.
There's a reason most parties don't panic at this stage of a Parliament.
Yet that’s exactly what many Labour MPs are doing.
I don't think they are panicking - they are using the election results to attack policies they and their constituents don't like such as the WFA cut.
Which I will continually emphasis was so badly presented I'm not surprised its created problems...
I think there’s some of that but I also think there is some panic going on. It’s not just the usual suspects.
Calm heads and all that.
The policy on WFA and PIP are right. The govt should plough on.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes..
Even if that were true, which seems highly unlikely, they would run out of money and missiles very rapidly if they were using S400s to shoot down drones.
As for the aircraft, wreckage pictures are quite well documented, including at least one Rafale.
The IAF seems to have been quite careless about Pakistani capabilities.
It suggests unfortunately that the Indian middle class is very online, and embedded in its own Twittersphere where the alternative facts rain down.
At the time of the last leadership election Priti was the only one of the 6 Tory leadership candidates with worse negative ratings than Kemi, so she could even if she has more oomph
The reason Priti Patel has worse negative ratings is that she has a personality, both public, and apparently private, that even grates on her colleagues. The voters seem to loathe her even more.
» show previous quotes For Trump to win his trade war, he has to cure America of its desire to buy foreign "stuff".
Whilst making stuff foreigners want to buy.
I said: And he is fundamentally correct that the continuous and massive trade deficits that the US has run with the rest of the world are impoverishing the US. The debt that the US has piled up over the last 30 years means that there is a continuous flow of money from the US to other countries reducing domestic consumption and investment. A lot of this is in bonds but, as with the UK, there is also an increasing number of US businesses being sold to finance this deficit. It is making the US poorer.
What he is fundamentally incorrect about is his batshit "solutions" to the problem. Erratic tariffs and economic policies positively discourage investment in the US. His bizarre behaviour at borders is costing the US tourist market tens of billions. He has failed to comprehend that his policies restrict imports to which manufacturers in the US can add value further damaging production. He has failed to appreciate that the inflationary consequences of his actions makes it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Biden's solutions to the same problem, such as the CHIPs Act, were a breach of GATT rules but the US has destroyed that institution by making the court non quorate by vetoing new appointments. But. right or wrong, those policies positively encouraged investment in manufacturing in the US. They were a far smarter way of addressing what is a real problem for the US.
In the latest news Trump has threatened the Mattel Toy company with 100% tariffs, despite being a company based in California, not a country.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes.
But while India officially rejects Pakistani claims to have damaged Indian air force bases and destroyed Indian S400s, I don't think they've denied the shooting down of Indian planes.
US "officials" say Pakistan used Chinese-made J-10 planes to shoot down at least 2 Indian air force planes.
Obviously, there's a lot more to it than a simplistic analysis of J-10/PL-15 combo outguns Rafale/Mica but at the same time the scoreboard doesn't lie.
The air-to-air exchanges have, so far, vindicated DJT's strategy of stopping the arsing around in the armpit of Eastern Europe and focusing on the real strategic threat of Chyna.
At the time of the last leadership election Priti was the only one of the 6 Tory leadership candidates with worse negative ratings than Kemi, so she could even if she has more oomph
The reason Priti Patel has worse negative ratings is that she has a personality, both public, and apparently private, that even grates on her colleagues. The voters seem to loathe her even more.
I’m reminded of a Mark Kermode quote. Someone you look at and you’re immediately annoyed by them.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes.
But while India officially rejects Pakistani claims to have damaged Indian air force bases and destroyed Indian S400s, I don't think they've denied the shooting down of Indian planes.
US "officials" say Pakistan used Chinese-made J-10 planes to shoot down at least 2 Indian air force planes.
Obviously, there's a lot more to it than a simplistic analysis of J-10/PL-15 combo outguns Rafale/Mica but at the same time the scoreboard doesn't lie.
The air-to-air exchanges have, so far, vindicated DJT's strategy of stopping the arsing around in the armpit of Eastern Europe and focusing on the real strategic threat of Chyna.
India has quite the hodge podge of missiles, from Europe (including the Meteor), Israel, Russia, and their domestic manufacturers.
As Malmesbury suggests, it could be as much about simple competence as it is kit.
What's the difference between a pessimist and an optimist? -A pessimist is he who says: "It just can't get any worse!" -Whereas an optimist says: "Come on, of course it can!"
Or Enver Hoxha in his 1967 New Year address to the nation:
“This year will be harder than last year. On the other hand, it will be easier than next year.”
I suppose he counts as a Soviet joke as well.
To be fair, that's the sort of honesty that this country needs. A bit of a tough sell on the doorstep, though.
Such has been the ideological drift of the Tories in recent years that Boris would probably be the centrist candidate in a future leadership contest.
He would be the centrist, the most right wing and the most left wing simultaneously, and miraculously people from each wing will still believe he is on their side, even now.......all schmucks.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes.
But while India officially rejects Pakistani claims to have damaged Indian air force bases and destroyed Indian S400s, I don't think they've denied the shooting down of Indian planes.
US "officials" say Pakistan used Chinese-made J-10 planes to shoot down at least 2 Indian air force planes.
Obviously, there's a lot more to it than a simplistic analysis of J-10/PL-15 combo outguns Rafale/Mica but at the same time the scoreboard doesn't lie.
The air-to-air exchanges have, so far, vindicated DJT's strategy of stopping the arsing around in the armpit of Eastern Europe and focusing on the real strategic threat of Chyna.
India may be suffering from complacency. They’ve generally handed the Pakistan military’s arse to them, in previous conflicts.
I spent a couple of days on the Viraat with INAS 300 and their Sea Harrier crews were very good operators although they did seem to chop crew at the drop of a hat for the slightest transgression. No idea about their air force.
The QFI exchange posting with the Indian Navy was the glittering prize of the RN Sea Harrier community. The Viraaat just seemed to navigate an Indian Ocean triangle with vertices at Mumbai, the Seychelles and the Maldives.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes..
Even if that were true, which seems highly unlikely, they would run out of money and missiles very rapidly if they were using S400s to shoot down drones.
As for the aircraft, wreckage pictures are quite well documented, including at least one Rafale.
The IAF seems to have been quite careless about Pakistani capabilities.
It suggests unfortunately that the Indian middle class is very online, and embedded in its own Twittersphere where the alternative facts rain down.
The only advantage is that if most Indians believe they've given Pakistan a bloody nose, and Pakistanis believe the opposite, it makes it easier for both sides to stop, and claim victory to their domestic audiences.
At the time of the last leadership election Priti was the only one of the 6 Tory leadership candidates with worse negative ratings than Kemi, so she could even if she has more oomph
The reason Priti Patel has worse negative ratings is that she has a personality, both public, and apparently private, that even grates on her colleagues. The voters seem to loathe her even more.
Good morning everyone. Fine bright day in the Witham constituency!
And while I don't vote for Dame Priti, I have met her a few times and she's usually very pleasant. I also know people who do vote for her and they speak highly of her.n She put's herself about in the constituency, too.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes.
But while India officially rejects Pakistani claims to have damaged Indian air force bases and destroyed Indian S400s, I don't think they've denied the shooting down of Indian planes.
US "officials" say Pakistan used Chinese-made J-10 planes to shoot down at least 2 Indian air force planes.
Obviously, there's a lot more to it than a simplistic analysis of J-10/PL-15 combo outguns Rafale/Mica but at the same time the scoreboard doesn't lie.
The air-to-air exchanges have, so far, vindicated DJT's strategy of stopping the arsing around in the armpit of Eastern Europe and focusing on the real strategic threat of Chyna.
Chyna.
Is that a WWE reference ?
RIP Joanie Laurer.
Remember when she kicked the shit out of Mankind? That was sick.
On topic, when your course is run, it’s run. The Conservatives no longer have a big, natural constituency, just a legacy vote.
Yet as I said MoreinCommon still has a Boris led Conservatives on 26%, with Reform on 23% and Labour 22% and the LDs 15%.
On that scenario the Conservatives could reclaim the mantle of party of the centre ground
The centre is not a void, unlike Boris. Boris wins by appealing to those who like well told fairy tales, which is also a big chunk of Farage's charm. For the country, a Boris return would therefore actually be a good thing as it splits the power of that vote. For your party he will destroy it, but it is probably dying anyway.
I think that unless the Tories can manage to get an unlikely or impossible candidate to lead they are stuck. It may just be a generation thing, but if the Tories wanted to be a serious party it is not easy to look beyond the impossible names of Cameron, Osborne, Gauke, Hunt, Stride, Rory, Kate Forbes. There are several others even more impossible because they are dead.
And if it wanted to be a challenger party but not serious, only Boris fits.
However Labour are also short in the 'charismatic genius in a seat they are likely to win' department; Farage, like his type generally, doesn't do succession planning. No-one can even offer bad or useless possibilities. LDs may be best placed for succession.
We've had shite governments for a hell of a long time. The country has been sold off and we're all poorer than we want to be. Whatever the data says, crime and antisocial behaviour appears rife. I personally witness bike theft, shoplifting and ebike/ scooter fuckwittery nearly everytime I venture into town. Public services seem shite. The current political parties aren't fit for purpose and we just get more of the same so it's no wonder that Reform are on the up, people just want something different. Basically, we need our parties to actually offer something. Some hope, some sort of plan to kick us up the arse. Tell us it's going to be a bit tough, but it'll be worth it. Unless Labour and especially the Tories can offer something better, but actually achievable, I fear that the voters will increasingly look elsewhere.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes.
But while India officially rejects Pakistani claims to have damaged Indian air force bases and destroyed Indian S400s, I don't think they've denied the shooting down of Indian planes.
US "officials" say Pakistan used Chinese-made J-10 planes to shoot down at least 2 Indian air force planes.
Obviously, there's a lot more to it than a simplistic analysis of J-10/PL-15 combo outguns Rafale/Mica but at the same time the scoreboard doesn't lie.
The air-to-air exchanges have, so far, vindicated DJT's strategy of stopping the arsing around in the armpit of Eastern Europe and focusing on the real strategic threat of Chyna.
Chyna.
Is that a WWE reference ?
RIP Joanie Laurer.
Remember when she kicked the shit out of Mankind? That was sick.
Priti doesn't have to appeal to the country. She only has to appeal to enough ReFukkers to get the Tories back up to 30% in the polls. In a 3-way split, that could be enough to see her become PM.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
I believe India has had a bit of a short, sharp shock at how poorly prepared its forces were/how well prepared Pakistan's were. Earlier, India suffered a cyber attack that hit 70% of its electricity generating capacity.
Just as Ukraine provided a surprise about just how poor most Russian kit is, Pakistan has demonstrated the opposite about Chinese weapons.
An Indian friend was telling me yesterday that India's S400s had destroyed every single missile and drone that Pakistan had fired into India. And that it was fake news that Pakistan had shot down any Indian planes.
But while India officially rejects Pakistani claims to have damaged Indian air force bases and destroyed Indian S400s, I don't think they've denied the shooting down of Indian planes.
US "officials" say Pakistan used Chinese-made J-10 planes to shoot down at least 2 Indian air force planes.
Obviously, there's a lot more to it than a simplistic analysis of J-10/PL-15 combo outguns Rafale/Mica but at the same time the scoreboard doesn't lie.
The air-to-air exchanges have, so far, vindicated DJT's strategy of stopping the arsing around in the armpit of Eastern Europe and focusing on the real strategic threat of Chyna.
India has quite the hodge podge of missiles, from Europe (including the Meteor), Israel, Russia, and their domestic manufacturers.
As Malmesbury suggests, it could be as much about simple competence as it is kit.
There’s a kind of inventive competence, in many fields, which enables organisations to achieve things that on a pure Technology-Specs basis, they should not be able to.
Just after Dunkirk, a meeting was held to discuss the defences for Manchester in the event of an invasion. The CO of the heavy antiaircraft batteries reported that -
- his command was ready for air raids. - His command was practising using the heavy AA guns as anti-tank weapons. He asked for a supply of anti-tank shot. - His command was practising using their heavy guns as indirect fire artillery. Some of the men had served with artillery batteries and were teaching the others. He asked for some technical kit to improve this.
At the same point in time, a French squadron commander of new fighters needed only the guns mounted, to go into combat. He refused to do this, since it was the responsibility of the manufacturer’s engineers.
At the time of the last leadership election Priti was the only one of the 6 Tory leadership candidates with worse negative ratings than Kemi, so she could even if she has more oomph
The reason Priti Patel has worse negative ratings is that she has a personality, both public, and apparently private, that even grates on her colleagues. The voters seem to loathe her even more.
Good morning everyone. Fine bright day in the Witham constituency!
And while I don't vote for Dame Priti, I have met her a few times and she's usually very pleasant. I also know people who do vote for her and they speak highly of her.n She put's herself about in the constituency, too.
“She put's herself about in the constituency, too.”
Boris would surely improve the Tory performance - he's a vote winner. The problem comes after - he lacks the ability and the purpose to govern .
Voters don't seem interested in serious leaders making tough choices in government at the moment, they rejected Rishi and now seem to be rejecting Starmer
That voters don't like bad stuff is just a permanent element of the human condition. In a democracy the challenge isn't to get voters to lead the leaders into doing what the country needs, but the leadership to lead the voters in and through difficult terrain. That is why it's called leadership and not followership.
From the disastrous moment Cameron resigned we have had no sign of this from anyone. But it can be done. Blair, Thatcher, Wilson, Attlee, obvs Churchill all come to mind.
In particular, SKS, despite being good in many ways is more or less a nought out of then in this department.
I think that unless the Tories can manage to get an unlikely or impossible candidate to lead they are stuck. It may just be a generation thing, but if the Tories wanted to be a serious party it is not easy to look beyond the impossible names of Cameron, Osborne, Gauke, Hunt, Stride, Rory, Kate Forbes. There are several others even more impossible because they are dead.
And if it wanted to be a challenger party but not serious, only Boris fits.
However Labour are also short in the 'charismatic genius in a seat they are likely to win' department; Farage, like his type generally, doesn't do succession planning. No-one can even offer bad or useless possibilities. LDs may be best placed for succession.
The Lib Dem succession is fairly clear: almost certainly Daisy Cooper. In tenure terms she is virtually a veteran, such are the short careers of most of the party's MPs.
The challenge will be timing: when does Davey step down? Like a popular football manager who’s taken his team up from the lower divisions, but might not be the right person for the top flight. I would guess it’ll be in 2029 after the next election, ideally after adding some more seats.
I am not convinced though am ambivalent towards her
The problem for the conservatives is if not Kemi then who ?
And why.
Where is the Tory Prince or Princess who is going to recreate either Cameron's coalition or Boris's army to sweep the Tories back into power? Where are the vision or the ideas that are going to get them another hearing? What is their analysis of what is wrong with the country (which is operating exactly the same way as it did under Boris, Truss or Sunak)?
They are being awfully quiet if they exist. Until they work out what they want and why changing leaders has as much effect as changing the managers at OT.
They need a low tax, sane, business friendly type who knows their job is unlikely to get them into number 10, but solidify their vote in the mid 20s for a time. There was too much self indulgence from Tory MPs in the last parliament for me to believe any of them are up to that job at the moment, I think they all still assume being conservative leader leads to being PM.
Seems to me that the best hope for the Conservatives is a by-election in a safe seat (if such a thing exists now) and a really good new MP to provide a fresh face. New blood. Multiply that by several and hope that they survive the next GE.
Yes, they are definitely lacking in talent. Many of those who survived last year should have been put out to pasture long ago. It does make building for the future much harder for them.
There are some talented Tories. Both Alicia Kearns (Rutland and Stamford) and Neil O'Brien (Harborough) are sane, and can speak in whole sentences. There must be others in the country too.
Pretty much everyone on the Oposition Front Bench is a waste of space, Badenoch has a poor hand and is playing it badly.
Aphra Brandreth (south Chester and Eddisbury) is good too. Sensible and articulate and good on the doorstep. But doesn't have her father's dress sense.
Boris would surely improve the Tory performance - he's a vote winner. The problem comes after - he lacks the ability and the purpose to govern .
Voters don't seem interested in serious leaders making tough choices in government at the moment, they rejected Rishi and now seem to be rejecting Starmer
That voters don't like bad stuff is just a permanent element of the human condition. In a democracy the challenge isn't to get voters to lead the leaders into doing what the country needs, but the leadership to lead the voters in and through difficult terrain. That is why it's called leadership and not followership.
From the disastrous moment Cameron resigned we have had no sign of this from anyone. But it can be done. Blair, Thatcher, Wilson, Attlee, obvs Churchill all come to mind.
In particular, SKS, despite being good in many ways is more or less a nought out of then in this department.
When what most people want is more money from the government, there's a real problem.
I am not convinced though am ambivalent towards her
The problem for the conservatives is if not Kemi then who ?
And why.
Where is the Tory Prince or Princess who is going to recreate either Cameron's coalition or Boris's army to sweep the Tories back into power? Where are the vision or the ideas that are going to get them another hearing? What is their analysis of what is wrong with the country (which is operating exactly the same way as it did under Boris, Truss or Sunak)?
They are being awfully quiet if they exist. Until they work out what they want and why changing leaders has as much effect as changing the managers at OT.
The fight seems to have gone out of them.
Most members and MPs would probably prefer a Farage led Fukker government to a Badenough led tory government anyway.
Going for Kemi was pure DEI virtue signalling and they are paying the price.
I couldn't go out on the streets and knock-up for the Conservatives today because what I thought they stood for - competent government, fiscal balance, business, strong defence, effective on crime and justice, controlled borders, low taxes and a country built on strong families and communities - doesn't appear to be the case.
Instead they became a byword for self-indulgence, venality and incompetence and seemed to be heavily aroused by infighting.
In "not everything is shite" news, phoned 111 at 6pm last night, GP phoned me at 8pm, prescription ready at 9.30am this morning, follow up GP appointment Monday at 3pm.
10/10. I did mention it was affecting my marathon training which seemed to energise the process.
Boris would surely improve the Tory performance - he's a vote winner. The problem comes after - he lacks the ability and the purpose to govern .
Voters don't seem interested in serious leaders making tough choices in government at the moment, they rejected Rishi and now seem to be rejecting Starmer
That voters don't like bad stuff is just a permanent element of the human condition. In a democracy the challenge isn't to get voters to lead the leaders into doing what the country needs, but the leadership to lead the voters in and through difficult terrain. That is why it's called leadership and not followership.
From the disastrous moment Cameron resigned we have had no sign of this from anyone. But it can be done. Blair, Thatcher, Wilson, Attlee, obvs Churchill all come to mind.
In particular, SKS, despite being good in many ways is more or less a nought out of then in this department.
Perhaps the time has come when the box-ticking mentality has reached critical mass & more, so no-one understands anything about leadership any longer.
In "not everything is shite" news, phoned 111 at 6pm last night, GP phoned me at 8pm, prescription ready at 9.30am this morning, follow up GP appointment Monday at 3pm.
10/10. I did mention it was affecting my marathon training which seemed to energise the process.
I got a same day in person GP appointment on 27 December. Beat that. I had bad flu and I got antibiotics for a possible infection on my lungs. Rockin’
In "not everything is shite" news, phoned 111 at 6pm last night, GP phoned me at 8pm, prescription ready at 9.30am this morning, follow up GP appointment Monday at 3pm.
10/10. I did mention it was affecting my marathon training which seemed to energise the process.
That's impressive, given the perceived state of the NHS I would be expecting a few snickers if someone tried to get faster treatment due to their marathon training.
I couldn't go out on the streets and knock-up for the Conservatives today because what I thought they stood for - competent government, fiscal balance, business, strong defence, effective on crime and justice, controlled borders, low taxes and a country built on strong families and communities - doesn't appear to be the case.
Instead they became a byword for self-indulgence, venality and incompetence and seemed to be heavily aroused by infighting.
So why would I?
The infighting made for good copy for the excess of lobby correspondents we have in this country and the politically engaged, including this site, lapped it up. Because it’s content. And the world lives for content.
I couldn't go out on the streets and knock-up for the Conservatives today because what I thought they stood for - competent government, fiscal balance, business, strong defence, effective on crime and justice, controlled borders, low taxes and a country built on strong families and communities - doesn't appear to be the case.
Instead they became a byword for self-indulgence, venality and incompetence and seemed to be heavily aroused by infighting.
So why would I?
The infighting made for good copy for the excess of lobby correspondents we have in this country and the politically engaged, including this site, lapped it up. Because it’s content. And the world lives for content.
We may like content, but does content lead to us being content?
I couldn't go out on the streets and knock-up for the Conservatives today because what I thought they stood for - competent government, fiscal balance, business, strong defence, effective on crime and justice, controlled borders, low taxes and a country built on strong families and communities - doesn't appear to be the case.
Instead they became a byword for self-indulgence, venality and incompetence and seemed to be heavily aroused by infighting.
So why would I?
The infighting made for good copy for the excess of lobby correspondents we have in this country and the politically engaged, including this site, lapped it up. Because it’s content. And the world lives for content.
We may like content, but does content lead to us being content?
We should put all the Conservatives in a Marquee. Then it would be a ConTent
At the time of the last leadership election Priti was the only one of the 6 Tory leadership candidates with worse negative ratings than Kemi, so she could even if she has more oomph
The reason Priti Patel has worse negative ratings is that she has a personality, both public, and apparently private, that even grates on her colleagues. The voters seem to loathe her even more.
Good morning everyone. Fine bright day in the Witham constituency!
And while I don't vote for Dame Priti, I have met her a few times and she's usually very pleasant. I also know people who do vote for her and they speak highly of her.n She put's herself about in the constituency, too.
I am surprised by the comments about her as well. Whereas, like you I don't agree with her politics at all, I don't find her unpleasant in any other way. She has a sense of humour, isn't aggressive when speaking and pleasant on the eye.
In "not everything is shite" news, phoned 111 at 6pm last night, GP phoned me at 8pm, prescription ready at 9.30am this morning, follow up GP appointment Monday at 3pm.
10/10. I did mention it was affecting my marathon training which seemed to energise the process.
I got a same day in person GP appointment on 27 December. Beat that. I had bad flu and I got antibiotics for a possible infection on my lungs. Rockin’
Christmas thru' to New Year is an excellent time to get a GP appointment. I had to go one Christmas Eve and it was empty. All the minor ailments can obviously wait until after the holiday obviously.
In "not everything is shite" news, phoned 111 at 6pm last night, GP phoned me at 8pm, prescription ready at 9.30am this morning, follow up GP appointment Monday at 3pm.
10/10. I did mention it was affecting my marathon training which seemed to energise the process.
That's impressive, given the perceived state of the NHS I would be expecting a few snickers if someone tried to get faster treatment due to their marathon training.
It was the GP who asked me what impact it was having, to be clear.
In "not everything is shite" news, phoned 111 at 6pm last night, GP phoned me at 8pm, prescription ready at 9.30am this morning, follow up GP appointment Monday at 3pm.
10/10. I did mention it was affecting my marathon training which seemed to energise the process.
I got a same day in person GP appointment on 27 December. Beat that. I had bad flu and I got antibiotics for a possible infection on my lungs. Rockin’
Christmas thru' to New Year is an excellent time to get a GP appointment. I had to go one Christmas Eve and it was empty. All the minor ailments can obviously wait until after the holiday obviously.
In "not everything is shite" news, phoned 111 at 6pm last night, GP phoned me at 8pm, prescription ready at 9.30am this morning, follow up GP appointment Monday at 3pm.
10/10. I did mention it was affecting my marathon training which seemed to energise the process.
That's impressive, given the perceived state of the NHS I would be expecting a few snickers if someone tried to get faster treatment due to their marathon training.
It was the GP who asked me what impact it was having, to be clear.
It's meant as a chocolate bar pun, not a sleight on marathon training. Perhaps I need to whisper its a pun in such circumstances.
I think that unless the Tories can manage to get an unlikely or impossible candidate to lead they are stuck. It may just be a generation thing, but if the Tories wanted to be a serious party it is not easy to look beyond the impossible names of Cameron, Osborne, Gauke, Hunt, Stride, Rory, Kate Forbes. There are several others even more impossible because they are dead.
And if it wanted to be a challenger party but not serious, only Boris fits.
However Labour are also short in the 'charismatic genius in a seat they are likely to win' department; Farage, like his type generally, doesn't do succession planning. No-one can even offer bad or useless possibilities. LDs may be best placed for succession.
The Lib Dem succession is fairly clear: almost certainly Daisy Cooper. In tenure terms she is virtually a veteran, such are the short careers of most of the party's MPs.
The challenge will be timing: when does Davey step down? Like a popular football manager who’s taken his team up from the lower divisions, but might not be the right person for the top flight. I would guess it’ll be in 2029 after the next election, ideally after adding some more seats.
If it is not Daisy then watch out for Callum Miller. He was principal private secretary to Gus O'Donnell and later chief operating officer at the Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford. Davey made him foreign affairs spokesman.
I couldn't go out on the streets and knock-up for the Conservatives today because what I thought they stood for - competent government, fiscal balance, business, strong defence, effective on crime and justice, controlled borders, low taxes and a country built on strong families and communities - doesn't appear to be the case.
Instead they became a byword for self-indulgence, venality and incompetence and seemed to be heavily aroused by infighting.
So why would I?
@Luckyguy1983 suggested a plan for tackling the issues top-down. Perhaps there could be a plan for tackling other issues grassroots up. A local MP with vision communicating Conservative values locally with the constituency party to get people interested and involved again.
I couldn't go out on the streets and knock-up for the Conservatives today because what I thought they stood for - competent government, fiscal balance, business, strong defence, effective on crime and justice, controlled borders, low taxes and a country built on strong families and communities - doesn't appear to be the case.
Instead they became a byword for self-indulgence, venality and incompetence and seemed to be heavily aroused by infighting.
So why would I?
The Conservatives’ pool of talent ran out, at some point in the early years of this century, and since then, they’ve been running on fumes.
» show previous quotes For Trump to win his trade war, he has to cure America of its desire to buy foreign "stuff".
Whilst making stuff foreigners want to buy.
I said: And he is fundamentally correct that the continuous and massive trade deficits that the US has run with the rest of the world are impoverishing the US. The debt that the US has piled up over the last 30 years means that there is a continuous flow of money from the US to other countries reducing domestic consumption and investment. A lot of this is in bonds but, as with the UK, there is also an increasing number of US businesses being sold to finance this deficit. It is making the US poorer.
What he is fundamentally incorrect about is his batshit "solutions" to the problem. Erratic tariffs and economic policies positively discourage investment in the US. His bizarre behaviour at borders is costing the US tourist market tens of billions. He has failed to comprehend that his policies restrict imports to which manufacturers in the US can add value further damaging production. He has failed to appreciate that the inflationary consequences of his actions makes it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Biden's solutions to the same problem, such as the CHIPs Act, were a breach of GATT rules but the US has destroyed that institution by making the court non quorate by vetoing new appointments. But. right or wrong, those policies positively encouraged investment in manufacturing in the US. They were a far smarter way of addressing what is a real problem for the US.
I surely can't be the only person who doesn't understand this post in its entirety? Another one is presumably Trump......
Why if this brief synopsis can be understood by at least 9 PBers is its content being overlooked by Trump and his advisors?
At the time of the last leadership election Priti was the only one of the 6 Tory leadership candidates with worse negative ratings than Kemi, so she could even if she has more oomph
The reason Priti Patel has worse negative ratings is that she has a personality, both public, and apparently private, that even grates on her colleagues. The voters seem to loathe her even more.
Good morning everyone. Fine bright day in the Witham constituency!
And while I don't vote for Dame Priti, I have met her a few times and she's usually very pleasant. I also know people who do vote for her and they speak highly of her.n She put's herself about in the constituency, too.
I am surprised by the comments about her as well. Whereas, like you I don't agree with her politics at all, I don't find her unpleasant in any other way. She has a sense of humour, isn't aggressive when speaking and pleasant on the eye.
Priti's main problems are she is quite short, speaks with an Essex accent, but most of all, she did not go to Oxbridge. Kemi is also non-Oxbridge. There is still an element of snobbery in the establishment – party; civil service; media from the posh papers to the BBC. It is the same reason Kinnock and IDS were not taken seriously. It should not matter but it does.
Oh yes, and running her own, private, foreign policy.
Received wisdom seems to be that this spring is continuing a trend of sparkling sunny springs (followed by dull humid summers) in recent years.
I’ve just been looking at the Met office stats. It’s not actually the case. In recent years (which I start arbitrarily from the beast from the east in March 2018), only lockdown 2020 and 2025 have had a season like this. There have been isolated dry sunny spring months, like May 2018, but otherwise it’s been average or duller and wetter than average in most years.
Summers on the other hand haven’t been as bad as in folk memory. It’s been sunnier than average in SE England in each of summer 2018, 2019, 2020 (just), 2022, 2023 and 2024. In 2021 it was dull and wet down here but dry and sunny beyond the Watford Gap.
If Badenoch was only half as good as she thinks she is, the Tories would be fine.
But she’s not.
As it stands, overconfidence blinds her to her own weakness. Her inability to warm to people her cause (nobody likes a smart arse) is leading the Tories to the grave.
Why the Tories don’t act is beyond me.
Surely even you can see that changing yet another leader who has only been in post a few months and with no clear alternative is just unrealistic and furthermore she cannot be replaced before November
Nope. She’s obviously a dead end. You need to stop digging the hole. The deeper it gets the harder recovery will be. A genial caretaker would be an improvement until the replacement emerges.
Like Truss, she can be encouraged to resign. Send in the men in grey suits. You have less time than you think.
I expect conservatives are unlikely to be influenced by those who would never vote for them
And as I am not a member of the conservative party I have no say over the leadership
However, as I posted earlier Starmer is becoming more and more a lame duck so maybe Labour supporters need to be considering whether he should be replaced
Oh well. Go all in on Badenoch. Bet the house on her. Maybe she completely changes her personality and becomes a vote magnet. Good luck with that.
As the Starmer, his opponents keep saying this stuff and somehow he keeps defeating them. Definitely an enigma though.
Starmer won the Labour leadership by lying through his teeth to the members, then won the GE by getting fewer votes than Corbyn managed, because the right split in half. The first may be canny politics if you like lying schemers, but the second was by default.
That said, I think his slow but steady way of governing may well reap rewards; everyone says to do the unpopular things early and reap the benefits nearer the election, that is what he is doing, and I think he is sure enough of himself and the system that he won't panic too much. Tories in a mess, I can't believe Reform can stay at this level of support, so why not back the Tortoise?
On topic, I hope Kemi is given time, and ends up in government after a deal with Reform next time. It's best for the anti-woke, anti-immigration cause to have Farage in tandem with a black female. If she loosens up a bit I think she could be ok
I couldn't go out on the streets and knock-up for the Conservatives today because what I thought they stood for - competent government, fiscal balance, business, strong defence, effective on crime and justice, controlled borders, low taxes and a country built on strong families and communities - doesn't appear to be the case.
Instead they became a byword for self-indulgence, venality and incompetence and seemed to be heavily aroused by infighting.
So why would I?
The Conservatives’ pool of talent ran out, at some point in the early years of this century, and since then, they’ve been running on fumes.
They made believing in not just Brexit, but a damaging hard Brexit, a purity test, and everyone not foolish enough has left or was driven away
At the time of the last leadership election Priti was the only one of the 6 Tory leadership candidates with worse negative ratings than Kemi, so she could even if she has more oomph
The reason Priti Patel has worse negative ratings is that she has a personality, both public, and apparently private, that even grates on her colleagues. The voters seem to loathe her even more.
Good morning everyone. Fine bright day in the Witham constituency!
And while I don't vote for Dame Priti, I have met her a few times and she's usually very pleasant. I also know people who do vote for her and they speak highly of her.n She put's herself about in the constituency, too.
I am surprised by the comments about her as well. Whereas, like you I don't agree with her politics at all, I don't find her unpleasant in any other way. She has a sense of humour, isn't aggressive when speaking and pleasant on the eye.
Priti's main problems are she is quite short, speaks with an Essex accent, but most of all, she did not go to Oxbridge. Kemi is also non-Oxbridge. There is still an element of snobbery in the establishment – party; civil service; media from the posh papers to the BBC. It is the same reason Kinnock and IDS were not taken seriously. It should not matter but it does.
Oh yes, and running her own, private, foreign policy.
I don't agree about Priti's Essex accent. While she's MP for an Essex constituency she comes from Hertfordshire and lives in Kent.
Not a cloud in the sky, and barely a whisper of wind, as the temperature rises in bonnie Scotland today
I can't tell you how pleasant it is to see a loved live animal on PB. As a recent convert to vegetarianism reading posts by people drooling over dead animals takes a bit of getting used to.
If anyone is interested in changeing the habit of a lifetime I'd recommend the excellent award winning documentary 'COW'
I couldn't go out on the streets and knock-up for the Conservatives today because what I thought they stood for - competent government, fiscal balance, business, strong defence, effective on crime and justice, controlled borders, low taxes and a country built on strong families and communities - doesn't appear to be the case.
Instead they became a byword for self-indulgence, venality and incompetence and seemed to be heavily aroused by infighting.
So why would I?
The Conservatives’ pool of talent ran out, at some point in the early years of this century, and since then, they’ve been running on fumes.
I look at Hampshire Tory MPs like Sir George Young and James Arbuthnot who were around until the last 10 years and...
I couldn't go out on the streets and knock-up for the Conservatives today because what I thought they stood for - competent government, fiscal balance, business, strong defence, effective on crime and justice, controlled borders, low taxes and a country built on strong families and communities - doesn't appear to be the case.
Instead they became a byword for self-indulgence, venality and incompetence and seemed to be heavily aroused by infighting.
So why would I?
The Conservatives’ pool of talent ran out, at some point in the early years of this century, and since then, they’ve been running on fumes.
I look at Hampshire Tory MPs like Sir George Young and James Arbuthnot who were around until the last 10 years and...
There's simply no-one who comes close now.
I suspect that Boris' purge had something to do with it. So, if he were to return the situation at and near the top would be worse, not better.
Comments
Polls suggest he is the only Tory with any voter cut-through, but there is a lengthy charge sheet against him, chiefly the ‘Boriswave’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/05/09/is-boris-about-to-make-a-comeback-and-save-conservatives
The Tories have none of these, they are in real trouble.
A massive issue though is how he gets onto the candidates list.
This presumably explains the recent survey by More in Common, of which Tryl is executive director, which found that the Conservatives would overturn an eight-point Reform poll lead and take a three-point lead themselves were Johnson to lead them again. The replacement of Badenoch by Robert Jenrick would, according to this survey, make no difference to the Tory position.'
"There's no one who could usefully replace Kemi..."
At some point Big Rish is going to foutre le camp, so there's one possibility.
Which is both a indictment of the stupidity of Trump and the extreme nature of globalisation in some industries.
And Trump still does.
But while India officially rejects Pakistani claims to have damaged Indian air force bases and destroyed Indian S400s, I don't think they've denied the shooting down of Indian planes.
US "officials" say Pakistan used Chinese-made J-10 planes to shoot down at least 2 Indian air force planes.
https://www.reuters.com/world/pakistans-chinese-made-jet-brought-down-two-indian-fighter-aircraft-us-officials-2025-05-08/
I think both countries are finding out exactly how prepared they really are.
I think this because it has occurred to me recently how little Kemi has achieved within the party, when following the devastating defeat in the locals, someone briefs to the press that she 'spent the day doomscrolling on her phone'. I mean, there can't have been more than three or four people with her in the room. That sort of gratuitous disloyalty by those closest will never, ever result in an election victory. And it is totally absent from Reform, or, despite the the Governments' travails, Labour.
In CCHQ, I suggest what Kemi does (and I admit this aligns with my personal wishes) is lets David Campbell-Bannerman and Priti Patel (moving Patel to Party Chairman) and the Conservative Democratic Movement go through the party aparatus like a dose of salts. No more Dougie and crew. No more backbiters. This is existential now, because much as Kemi was put there by these forces, they will turn on her (and already are) in favour of Reform, as power ebbs from the Tories. Sack everyone and put a totally new team in.
Once CCHQ is a functioning, Tory-supporting organisation, concentrate on more effective Shadow Cabinet. This point was made on The Daily T, where are some of the Shadow Cabinet? Mel Stride is pants imo, but at least he's out there. Where is Shadow Health Sec Ed Argar? For that matter, WHO is Shadow Health Sec Ed Argar? I don't even know what he looks like, and I'm a politics nut. I think Hunt should shadow Health. Jenrick to be promoted to Shadow Home Sec. Get rid of the dead wood.
The PCP then needs to be LED. They need to be united around Kemi's fabled 'plan' and it would not hurt the party at all to have a Clause 4 moment and lose a few Simon Hoares and Caroline Nokes to the Lib Dems on a particular issue. Leaving the ECHR would be a fair one to choose. If anything, it would hurt the Lib Dems at the next election to be seen as a rest home for disgruntled Tories.
Will continue later...
As for the aircraft, wreckage pictures are quite well documented, including at least one Rafale.
The IAF seems to have been quite careless about Pakistani capabilities.
They're all thinking.
https://x.com/hering_david/status/1921126465719919076
The air-to-air exchanges have, so far, vindicated DJT's strategy of stopping the arsing around in the armpit of Eastern Europe and focusing on the real strategic threat of Chyna.
Calm heads and all that.
The policy on WFA and PIP are right. The govt should plough on.
By supper no one will know what is going on.
Talking of which, Ouseburn awaits.
Is that a WWE reference ?
RIP Joanie Laurer.
On that scenario the Conservatives could reclaim the mantle of party of the centre ground
Vote 1 million a year net inward migration.
As Malmesbury suggests, it could be as much about simple competence as it is kit.
The QFI exchange posting with the Indian Navy was the glittering prize of the RN Sea Harrier community. The Viraaat just seemed to navigate an Indian Ocean triangle with vertices at Mumbai, the Seychelles and the Maldives.
And while I don't vote for Dame Priti, I have met her a few times and she's usually very pleasant. I also know people who do vote for her and they speak highly of her.n She put's herself about in the constituency, too.
And if it wanted to be a challenger party but not serious, only Boris fits.
However Labour are also short in the 'charismatic genius in a seat they are likely to win' department; Farage, like his type generally, doesn't do succession planning. No-one can even offer bad or useless possibilities. LDs may be best placed for succession.
The current political parties aren't fit for purpose and we just get more of the same so it's no wonder that Reform are on the up, people just want something different.
Basically, we need our parties to actually offer something. Some hope, some sort of plan to kick us up the arse. Tell us it's going to be a bit tough, but it'll be worth it.
Unless Labour and especially the Tories can offer something better, but actually achievable, I fear that the voters will increasingly look elsewhere.
Just after Dunkirk, a meeting was held to discuss the defences for Manchester in the event of an invasion. The CO of the heavy antiaircraft batteries reported that -
- his command was ready for air raids.
- His command was practising using the heavy AA guns as anti-tank weapons. He asked for a supply of anti-tank shot.
- His command was practising using their heavy guns as indirect fire artillery. Some of the men had served with artillery batteries and were teaching the others. He asked for some technical kit to improve this.
At the same point in time, a French squadron commander of new fighters needed only the guns mounted, to go into combat. He refused to do this, since it was the responsibility of the manufacturer’s engineers.
😧
From the disastrous moment Cameron resigned we have had no sign of this from anyone. But it can be done. Blair, Thatcher, Wilson, Attlee, obvs Churchill all come to mind.
In particular, SKS, despite being good in many ways is more or less a nought out of then in this department.
The challenge will be timing: when does Davey step down? Like a popular football manager who’s taken his team up from the lower divisions, but might not be the right person for the top flight. I would guess it’ll be in 2029 after the next election, ideally after adding some more seats.
Instead they became a byword for self-indulgence, venality and incompetence and seemed to be heavily aroused by infighting.
So why would I?
10/10. I did mention it was affecting my marathon training which seemed to energise the process.
Why if this brief synopsis can be understood by at least 9 PBers is its content being overlooked by Trump and his advisors?
Oh yes, and running her own, private, foreign policy.
I’ve just been looking at the Met office stats. It’s not actually the case. In recent years (which I start arbitrarily from the beast from the east in March 2018), only lockdown 2020 and 2025 have had a season like this. There have been isolated dry sunny spring months, like May 2018, but otherwise it’s been average or duller and wetter than average in most years.
Summers on the other hand haven’t been as bad as in folk memory. It’s been sunnier than average in SE England in each of summer 2018, 2019, 2020 (just), 2022, 2023 and 2024. In 2021 it was dull and wet down here but dry and sunny beyond the Watford Gap.
That said, I think his slow but steady way of governing may well reap rewards; everyone says to do the unpopular things early and reap the benefits nearer the election, that is what he is doing, and I think he is sure enough of himself and the system that he won't panic too much. Tories in a mess, I can't believe Reform can stay at this level of support, so why not back the Tortoise?
https://catherinemcbride.substack.com/p/a-winning-hand-in-trade-poker
Sierra Leone’s first lady rents a council flat in south London
https://www.thetimes.com/article/7d9f096c-0b75-41ac-82d6-91fd66f2086f?shareToken=2c5e5aefd7a4cc88be9b7ffa417899e7
If anyone is interested in changeing the habit of a lifetime I'd recommend the excellent award winning documentary 'COW'
Also, wanting her to be Farage's Moneypenny just because she's a woman of colour is woke.
There's simply no-one who comes close now.
https://x.com/notthathughes/status/1920897034028007507?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q