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Recent history suggests Badenoch will not make it to the general election – politicalbetting.com
Recent history suggests Badenoch will not make it to the general election – politicalbetting.com
David Cameron really was exceptional, we may not see his like again, since the turn of the millennium other than David Cameron no Tory leader has served more 38 months.
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The problem for the conservatives is if not Kemi than who ?
Anything could happen yet.
I posted this at the end of the last thread
The rise of Reform in the polls is remarkable and shows no signs of abating
Switching on the news this morning Starmer is in Ukraine with other EU leaders and Zelensky posing for photos, and I am beginning to come to the conclusion no matter for all Starmer's efforts with the US and India he has lost the dressing room in football parlance
The question for Labour if the polls do not improve will be is Starmer the problem, as he certainly does not have any personality nor political nous
His press conference with Trump from the car factory was toe curling with his Donald and Keir familiarity and it may be reaching the point nothing he says or does improves Labour's polling
Indeed with the huge NHS cuts muted and the immigration debate not helping what can save him if Labour want to win in 2028/9 ?
Plus, the fight has just gone out of a lot of them. They seem resigned rather than eager to plot yet another leadership change, which is perhaps the most worrying sign of all for them. Tories not wanting to plot is like a usually vivacious child lying listless on the sofa.
Besides, even if one takes the optimistic spin that it's only as bad as IDS (it's not- it's far worse), who is the Michael Howard figure? Who is broadly tolerated enough to give the sinking ship a bit of buoyancy?
It wouldn't surprise me if Starmer stood down voluntarily in 2028, but it's virtually impossible to force him out.
The Tory party rules have tightened too, so not easy to unseat Badenoch, and I think that the maths means that she can't be unseated this year. Badenoch going in 2025 is a definite lay.
MarqueeMark said:
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For Trump to win his trade war, he has to cure America of its desire to buy foreign "stuff".
Whilst making stuff foreigners want to buy.
I said:
And he is fundamentally correct that the continuous and massive trade deficits that the US has run with the rest of the world are impoverishing the US. The debt that the US has piled up over the last 30 years means that there is a continuous flow of money from the US to other countries reducing domestic consumption and investment. A lot of this is in bonds but, as with the UK, there is also an increasing number of US businesses being sold to finance this deficit. It is making the US poorer.
What he is fundamentally incorrect about is his batshit "solutions" to the problem. Erratic tariffs and economic policies positively discourage investment in the US. His bizarre behaviour at borders is costing the US tourist market tens of billions. He has failed to comprehend that his policies restrict imports to which manufacturers in the US can add value further damaging production. He has failed to appreciate that the inflationary consequences of his actions makes it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates.
Biden's solutions to the same problem, such as the CHIPs Act, were a breach of GATT rules but the US has destroyed that institution by making the court non quorate by vetoing new appointments. But. right or wrong, those policies positively encouraged investment in manufacturing in the US. They were a far smarter way of addressing what is a real problem for the US.
The rules didn't save Truss, Johnson or May.
ETA tbh Wikipedia did most of the heavy lifting.
https://bsky.app/profile/mollyploofkins.bsky.social/post/3loqm2e6fpk2q
It seems that he thought the Barbie Movie was a traveller documentary.
The Labour government will be judged on results to a large extent. If people feel better off, and feel the country is going in the right direction they've got every chance of being re-elected.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/may/02/resident-doctors-in-england-to-be-balloted-on-strike-action-over-pay
They are being awfully quiet if they exist. Until they work out what they want and why changing leaders has as much effect as changing the managers at OT.
But this is a two-edged sword. Whilst it shows Kemi's position is unsafe, it also shows Robert Jenrick would be foolish to challenge now, four years from a 2029 election, because there is clearly time for any new leader to be deposed (even two new leaders!).
In practice, though it doesn't matter. The only sitting MP who could make a material difference to Conservative fortunes by becoming leader is N. Farage Esq.
Most members and MPs would probably prefer a Farage led Fukker government to a Badenough led tory government anyway.
Going for Kemi was pure DEI virtue signalling and they are paying the price.
If Labour show progress on the economy and immigration, no one is going to remember an awkward press conference. Most people won't even have noticed it.
Starmer is then hated. Reeves's memory even more so.
Farage has departed the scene to sell Trumpian crypto. He is now worth $4.6bn. His successors fight like rats in a sack
The LibDems are still meh for a good 80% of the population, trapped in trying to be all things to all men. Davey's jolly japes schtick has by now worn very thin.
Kemi took time to bed in but now looks sane. Sensible. For sure, dull - but the electorate don't hold that against her.
There is also no polling evidence swapping Kemi with Jenrick for instance would make any difference at all. Indeed it might just end up a repeat of 2003 when the Tories replaced IDS with Howrd, leading to Howard making more of an impact at PMQs and on the media and giving a bit of a morale boost to Tory MPs but in polling terms making no change at all to the 32-34% the Conservatives polled when IDS was ousted and still losing to Blair with a few gains of seats
F1: Can Anyone Stop Piastri?
https://medium.com/@rkilner/can-anyone-stop-piastri-731b962f92d8
Free to read wibble for anyone into that sort of thing.
https://swalwell.house.gov/issues/russia-trump-his-administration-s-ties
And that was the least of Jenrick’s problems
But she’s not.
As it stands, overconfidence blinds her to her own weakness. Her inability to warm to people her cause (nobody likes a smart arse) is leading the Tories to the grave.
Why the Tories don’t act is beyond me.
It would also require Boris to be found a seat with a supporter standing down allowing a by election
Is this another example of his lack of political nous or a signal he is losing faith in the bill ?
Michael Foot was 16% ahead in the polls at this stage in the 1979-1983 Parliament.
Neil Kinnock had a 28 pt lead during the 1987-1992 Parliament.
Ed Miliband was 11% up at this stage in the 2010-2015 Parliament.
Theresa May was 25% up in a poll just 6 weeks before an election she won by 2.5%
Farage's Brexit Party had a 6% poll lead six months before the 2019 General election. By the time they stood down candidates, they were already polling 25-30 pts behind the Tories, and 15-20pts behind Labour, and on election day got just 2% of the vote.
Boris Johnson had an 18pt lead in 2021. In the same Parliament, Starmer had a 30pt poll lead.
There's a reason most parties don't panic at this stage of a Parliament.
I am always amused when I hear the stats for average wage rises....you would have thought sometime over the last couple of decades I would have met people who got anywhere near the quoted percentage*. This year for example I think of my social circle maybe 20 or so people the highest I heard of was about 2.5%
*the only people that seem to get near the quoted figure are people I know working minimum wage and that is down to being mandatory not voluntary pay rises to retain staff, I do wonder what the average would be if you removed min wage workers and senior management rises from the calculation (senior management because they always seem to achieve riduculously large pay rises.
I suspect she will be given a year or 2 to turn things round but if that doesn't change and a number of Tory MPs fear losing their seats they will act and probably put Stride or Jenrick in by coronation
It's like chucking a drowning man a concrete life-ring.
Is there a more discredited politician on the planet?
(Well, Truss obviously, but anyone else?)
Like Truss, she can be encouraged to resign. Send in the men in grey suits. You have less time than you think.
Bori has as much chance of a come back as Rolf Harris.
Take a walk on the mild side
And as I am not a member of the conservative party I have no say over the leadership
However, as I posted earlier Starmer is becoming more and more a lame duck so maybe Labour supporters need to be considering whether he should be replaced
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2025/may/10/pakistan-says-three-air-bases-attacked-by-indian-missiles-live-updates
...Pakistan’s foreign minister has told local television that if India stops here then “we will consider to stop here”, Reuters is reporting.
Ishaq Dar also said he had told the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, that the ball was in India’s court when it came to de-escalation.
Rubio said both parties had to find ways to de-escalate and re-establish direct communication to avoid miscalculation, the US state department said.
The Indian military, meanwhile, reiterated a commitment not to escalate the conflict provided that was reciprocated by the Pakistani military...
Walk on the Wild Side by piano (a bit distant
https://youtu.be/n2JvXwcr2Mo?t=103
Stride
https://youtu.be/zdHZ-RkF4L0?t=47
(Good morning everyone)
As the Starmer, his opponents keep saying this stuff and somehow he keeps defeating them. Definitely an enigma though.
But what if they're polling 12% by then ?
In which case Rayner would be favourite or Burnham if like Boris he could be found a seat first
* If that does play out (unlikely) Jenrick is cr@p is Prime Minister.
Which I will continually emphasis was so badly presented I'm not surprised its created problems...
Pretty much everyone on the Oposition Front Bench is a waste of space, Badenoch has a poor hand and is playing it badly.
The Callaghan winning in 1978 thread was awesome. The Tories winning in 2029 (at this moment in time) appears equally implausible.
#Priti4Leader
She couldn't be any worse than Kemi.
Maybe they still do, it's decades since I followed cricket.
In stage one we say nothing is going to happen.
Stage two, we say something may be about to happen, but we should do nothing about it.
In stage three, we say that maybe we should do something about it, but there's nothing we can do.
Stage four, we say maybe there was something we could have done, but it's too late now.
I reckon the Conservatives are currently at stage two (if they are Reform-curious) or three (if they are wets).
I had a quick look to see if anyone had suggested Starmer step down, and found one 'veiled' comment from Jon Trickett, who, as a member of the Socialist Campaign Group, isn't going to be Starmer's biggest fan.
*Soviet joke from 1976:
What's the difference between a pessimist and an optimist?
-A pessimist is he who says: "It just can't get any worse!"
-Whereas an optimist says: "Come on, of course it can!"
Boris is also the only Conservative who can reach the redwall voters who voted for him in 2019, for Labour in 2024 and have now gone Reform
Indeed at this point Boris may be the only chance not only to save Tory seats but also to stop Farage becoming PM assuming we don't get PR before the next general election and even then Farage could become PM if Reform win most votes and Reform and the Tories combined reached 50% or more as they did with BMG yesterday
https://www.moreincommon.org.uk/media/2cyg5l1m/more-in-common-post-election-briefing-4.pdf (p48)
“This year will be harder than last year. On the other hand, it will be easier than next year.”
I suppose he counts as a Soviet joke as well.
I am sure the Red Wall will vote for the guy that delivered record breaking immigration.
Shaved her legs and then he was a she?
Tories in trans-ition?
If Boris Johnson is the answer (and to a number of you on here that seems to be the case) what question are you asking?