politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another Scottish poll gives a little bit of cheer to LAB b
Comments
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LOL, surprise surprise a Tory thinks they could sell of the NHS and it would be better. I am sure it is the SNP that do the shift rotas on the NHS. Not too bright methinks or just blinded by hatred of SNP.fitalass said:I genuinely believe that anyone other than the SNP could do a better job of getting their priorities right when it comes to running the Scottish NHS right now. For start, I would get rid of the new shift hours that nursing staff now work. What the hell were people thinking when they thought this was a good idea, certainly not maintaining a good continuity of care for the patients that is for sure.
JPJ2 said:fitalass:
"As a side note. I have been warning of the difficulties that the Scottish NHS was facing for the last few years on PB, it is under serious pressure right now"
While this is true, as it is everywhere in the UK, a recent poll showed the SNP are the most trusted party on the NHS in Scotland.
In spite of all the efforts of BBC Scotland, there is no plurality believing that SLAB or the Tories would do as well, never mind better.0 -
Lol, so says the moderator generalSeanT said:
Just politely trying to keep the site readable for everyone else.Theuniondivvie said:
Is that the royal 'we', or are you now a moderator?SeanT said:
We really don't need four long paragraphs of this turgid, irrelevant piffle
Also, Our Genial Host rightly disapproves of extended cut-and-pastes, due to copyright issues.
Standard form is one paragraph, max, or two at a stretch - and a link.0 -
I more or less agree, but what I posted was around a third of the artice. I'd assumed SeanT's original response was an excoriating, aesthetic judgment on the piece rather a polite point of etiquette. So difficult to tell sometimes.edmundintokyo said:
1) SeanT is right, it's better not to post whole articles. Normal articles should have a paragraph (or less) and a link. Articles hidden behind paywalls should sulkily ignored to avoid giving the miserable bastards any traffic.0 -
Not many in Scotland share your optimism , apart from a few Tory surgers.antifrank said:
Jim Murphy understands who he needs to get back to Labour and has some understanding of what motivates them. I'm far from convinced that he has time to achieve the job for May to salvage much from the wreckage, or that the people he needs to get back are ready to listen to him.fitalass said:Nope, you are obviously not ready to admit that this smart politics by Jim Murphy when it comes to targeting the Scots voters he is trying to persuade to vote for Labour at the next GE. I doubt that dyed in the wool Yes voting Celtic fans are at the top of that list. He is at least attempting to bring together and unite Scots with this campaign, whereas the SNP seem determined to maintain the politics of division...
Theuniondivvie said:
There are people who give a toss about honours, and there are people who don't. I'm pretty sure Yes voting Celtic supporters are in the latter category.fitalass said:You are obviously not old enough to remember the popularity of both Billy McNeil and John Greig.... Go on, admit it through gnashing of teeth, this is extremely smart politics from Jim Murphy?
Theuniondivvie said:
UK honours have always gone down well with the Green Brigade.malcolmg said:
How pathetic can Murphy get, he now wants knighthoods for Billy McNeil and John Greig. You just could not make it up.Theuniondivvie said:As J***s K***y notes, the much touted SCon revival on the back of Davidson's 'good' referendum appears entirely absent. It seems, as with Murphy, that despite winning the referendum, it has had very few knock-on benefits for Unionist pols.
It's just another example of Murphy's slightly tin-eared hoordom: 'You like this, and this? Is this doing it for you baby?'0 -
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/gas/11354609/British-Gas-reduces-annual-bills-by-37-with-five-per-cent-price-cut.html
"The move comes after George Osborne, the Chancellor, heaped pressure on energy companies to lower bills."
Whereas Ed the Incompetent's key policy is to freeze energy bills even as the market starts a downturn.0 -
According to the statistics there are still many more EU claimants in the UK, than UK claimants in the rest of the EU, though the phrase 'Unemployed Britons in richer EU states outnumber jobless from those countries in UK', is an interesting spin.Alistair said:Cahrt in this article is awesome
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/-sp-thousands-britons-claim-benefits-eu
There are 2 Britons claiming unemployment benefit in Poland. One in Slovenia. And None in Lithuania or Romania0 -
Oh my word.
A Tory Prime Minister aiming/talking about full employment.
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However , in many of these countries you can live better on a minute wage than you can in the UK on a large one, so not a real way to measure how you are doing.Alistair said:
Incredibly humbling - it makes me grateful for having the good fortune to have been born where I was.SeanT said:
Even the median UK salary puts you in the top 2%, globally.Alistair said:
The UK mean salary is £26,000 thousand is but the median salary is £19,000ishSeanT said:
It's incredible, isn't t?Pulpstar said:
Fucking hell, I'm in the top 0.5% - doesn't feel that way.SeanT said:Something clever, sobering and salutary for a sultry and lazy Monday afternoon (in Bangkok):
If you earn "just" £20k a year, you're in the world's top 2% by income. Try it: http://www.globalrichlist.com/
I'm in the top 0.04%.
PS I also imagine that almost everyone on here is in the top 1% - which requires an income of just £25,000 a year - lower than the UK average salary. We are literally the 1 percent.
Quite remarkable and rather humbling.0 -
More the brutish opportunism of Sepp Dietrich; also a more fitting comparison with regard to Murphy's level of importance.TheScreamingEagles said:You get the feeling this is a bit like the Ardennes offensive.
Jim Murphy = Walter Model?
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You have to recalibrate for general grumpy bipolar vituperativeness, the "turgid, irrelevant piffle" is equivalent to a normal British person's "quite an interesting article".Theuniondivvie said:
I more or less agree, but what I posted was around a third of the artice. I'd assumed SeanT's original response was an excoriating, aesthetic judgment on the piece rather a polite point of etiquette. So difficult to tell sometimes.edmundintokyo said:
1) SeanT is right, it's better not to post whole articles. Normal articles should have a paragraph (or less) and a link. Articles hidden behind paywalls should sulkily ignored to avoid giving the miserable bastards any traffic.0 -
http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-indexmalcolmg said:
However , in many of these countries you can live better on a minute wage than you can in the UK on a large one, so not a real way to measure how you are doing.Alistair said:
Incredibly humbling - it makes me grateful for having the good fortune to have been born where I was.SeanT said:
Even the median UK salary puts you in the top 2%, globally.Alistair said:
The UK mean salary is £26,000 thousand is but the median salary is £19,000ishSeanT said:
It's incredible, isn't t?Pulpstar said:
Fucking hell, I'm in the top 0.5% - doesn't feel that way.SeanT said:Something clever, sobering and salutary for a sultry and lazy Monday afternoon (in Bangkok):
If you earn "just" £20k a year, you're in the world's top 2% by income. Try it: http://www.globalrichlist.com/
I'm in the top 0.04%.
PS I also imagine that almost everyone on here is in the top 1% - which requires an income of just £25,000 a year - lower than the UK average salary. We are literally the 1 percent.
Quite remarkable and rather humbling.0 -
There must be many people who took up the offers that the power companies came up with in response to Ed's whizzo idea to freeze prices. Said companies being more than happy to freeze at a peak. Those people are probably now not very happy about the deal they took. I hope that they recall whose great idea it was.Patrick said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/gas/11354609/British-Gas-reduces-annual-bills-by-37-with-five-per-cent-price-cut.html
"The move comes after George Osborne, the Chancellor, heaped pressure on energy companies to lower bills."
Whereas Ed the Incompetent's key policy is to freeze energy bills even as the market starts a downturn.0 -
One word to describe Burnham...Hapless
He make EdM look dynamic...in comparison,of course.0 -
Much clutching at straws on here today , your pointing out the truth will not be welcome.Richard_Nabavi said:
Possibly, but looking at the three most recent Survation polls, they show:MikeSmithson said:
Well the movement is in the right direction and is supported by another poll.Richard_Nabavi said:Morning all.
Things have come to a pretty pass when a 20-point SNP lead, 4 months before the GE, is seen as encouraging news for Labour.
SNP 46% 48% 46%
Labour 24% 24% 26%
There might be a smidgen of movement there, but if so it is tiny in comparison to the ground to be made up. And the figures are perfectly consistent with no movement at all.0 -
In 10 years of living in Stirling, I have never been canvassed by SLAB. Whereas I've been canvassed by the SNP, LIbDems and the Tories at each election. I think SLAB lack ground resources, which is why they had to bus in activists from across the border for the referendum.Carnyx said:
Even if you are right, and you may be, then adding about 7K members in the last 2 months isn't bad when SLAB have altogether about that number, or not much more (depending on the source: it's hard to be sure when SLAB have so carefully concealed it).CarlottaVance said:
So the SNP added 34,000 members a month in the two months after Indyref, and (possibly) have not added as many as 3,400 a month in the following 2 months......I think that could not unreasonably be interpreted as 'running out of steam'.......malcolmg said:
Last I saw it was over the 92K mark , up from around 25K before the referendum. We would surely have heard if it had reached 100K.MarqueeMark said:Has the SNP membership rise run out of steam, anyone know?
In terms of the SNP surge, in Stirling membership is still rising steadily. By the end of October it stood at 1,500 (up 500%), by the end of 2014 it had risen to 1,822. Not sure about the national picture though.0 -
Can I nominate this chap for an award.
Queued for over an hour for a copy of the latest Charlie Hebdo edition, when he gets his hand on it, he complains "but it’s in French!”
http://www.theguardian.com/media/mediamonkeyblog/2015/jan/18/charlie-hebdo-magazine-french0 -
Cutting and pasting one third of an article is a potential copyright infringement. It really should not be done.Theuniondivvie said:
I more or less agree, but what I posted was around a third of the artice. I'd assumed SeanT's original response was an excoriating, aesthetic judgment on the piece rather a polite point of etiquette. So difficult to tell sometimes.edmundintokyo said:
1) SeanT is right, it's better not to post whole articles. Normal articles should have a paragraph (or less) and a link. Articles hidden behind paywalls should sulkily ignored to avoid giving the miserable bastards any traffic.
https://www.gov.uk/exceptions-to-copyright
Cutting and pasting any more than a line or two from behind a paywall is almost certainly an infringement.
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@SeanT dead right. PB is scanned by several media organisations and I regularly get take down notices from their solicitors.malcolmg said:
Lol, so says the moderator generalSeanT said:
Just politely trying to keep the site readable for everyone else.Theuniondivvie said:
Is that the royal 'we', or are you now a moderator?SeanT said:
We really don't need four long paragraphs of this turgid, irrelevant piffle
Also, Our Genial Host rightly disapproves of extended cut-and-pastes, due to copyright issues.
Standard form is one paragraph, max, or two at a stretch - and a link.
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Think of all those customers wondering what they will spend their average 70 pence a week on, good old George has saved them for sure.Patrick said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/energy/gas/11354609/British-Gas-reduces-annual-bills-by-37-with-five-per-cent-price-cut.html
"The move comes after George Osborne, the Chancellor, heaped pressure on energy companies to lower bills."
Whereas Ed the Incompetent's key policy is to freeze energy bills even as the market starts a downturn.0 -
Disappointed in you, pb.com. I thought SOMEBODY would come back with "No, a party invite is an invitation to treats...."MarqueeMark said:
Interesting issues around offer and acceptance under contract law.... Is a party invite merely an invitation to treat?dr_spyn said:Case for PB's finest legal minds to fight over?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-308763600 -
You should not have to make excuses for a loutish oaf, tell it as it is a smug ar**hole imagining he can talk down to people. Just poor breeding.edmundintokyo said:
You have to recalibrate for general grumpy bipolar vituperativeness, the "turgid, irrelevant piffle" is equivalent to a normal British person's "quite an interesting article".Theuniondivvie said:
I more or less agree, but what I posted was around a third of the artice. I'd assumed SeanT's original response was an excoriating, aesthetic judgment on the piece rather a polite point of etiquette. So difficult to tell sometimes.edmundintokyo said:
1) SeanT is right, it's better not to post whole articles. Normal articles should have a paragraph (or less) and a link. Articles hidden behind paywalls should sulkily ignored to avoid giving the miserable bastards any traffic.0 -
Slightly less flippant... I will be astonished if His Lordship's poll today gives the Tories more than a 2 point lead.0
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Which is why you should use PPP exchange rates.malcolmg said:
However , in many of these countries you can live better on a minute wage than you can in the UK on a large one, so not a real way to measure how you are doing.Alistair said:
Incredibly humbling - it makes me grateful for having the good fortune to have been born where I was.SeanT said:
Even the median UK salary puts you in the top 2%, globally.Alistair said:
The UK mean salary is £26,000 thousand is but the median salary is £19,000ishSeanT said:
It's incredible, isn't t?Pulpstar said:
Fucking hell, I'm in the top 0.5% - doesn't feel that way.SeanT said:Something clever, sobering and salutary for a sultry and lazy Monday afternoon (in Bangkok):
If you earn "just" £20k a year, you're in the world's top 2% by income. Try it: http://www.globalrichlist.com/
I'm in the top 0.04%.
PS I also imagine that almost everyone on here is in the top 1% - which requires an income of just £25,000 a year - lower than the UK average salary. We are literally the 1 percent.
Quite remarkable and rather humbling.0 -
CON within 1% in today's Populus online poll
CON 35
LAB 36
LD 8
UKIP 13
GRN 40 -
Interesting photograph of Farage there - it's clearly been framed to show the turnout to it's best advantage, but there can't be more than 150 people in it. That's hardly a street rammed to bursting with supporters.TheWatcher said:MikeK said:"@Nigel_Farage: Action day in South Thanet yesterday. Street full, venue full, and more arriving! pic.twitter.com/cVjrQgzhhu" #UKIP
— UKIP Tonbridge (@UKIPTonbridge) January 19, 2015
How interesting, I saw a tweet counting them up earlier..... 92 people
as you say the angle here is 'favourable...
The Official Kate@circusfreak88
Even if you can agree with his xenophobia, legal hand guns, do you really want a man who can't count as PM? #UKIP
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Thankyou Topper , as I expected and explains why despite earning lots I am still skint.TOPPING said:
http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-indexmalcolmg said:
However , in many of these countries you can live better on a minute wage than you can in the UK on a large one, so not a real way to measure how you are doing.Alistair said:
Incredibly humbling - it makes me grateful for having the good fortune to have been born where I was.SeanT said:
Even the median UK salary puts you in the top 2%, globally.Alistair said:
The UK mean salary is £26,000 thousand is but the median salary is £19,000ishSeanT said:
It's incredible, isn't t?Pulpstar said:
Fucking hell, I'm in the top 0.5% - doesn't feel that way.SeanT said:Something clever, sobering and salutary for a sultry and lazy Monday afternoon (in Bangkok):
If you earn "just" £20k a year, you're in the world's top 2% by income. Try it: http://www.globalrichlist.com/
I'm in the top 0.04%.
PS I also imagine that almost everyone on here is in the top 1% - which requires an income of just £25,000 a year - lower than the UK average salary. We are literally the 1 percent.
Quite remarkable and rather humbling.0 -
It's fair to say that many senior SNP politicians have changed their views on many key issues over the years, so it does not seem unreasonable for Murphy to do the same. But it is going to be a long, hard road for him to change minds that only relatively recently were actively engaged in the most passionate, committed election event the UK has seen for many a long year. I suspect that deep down Murphy realises this and that currently he is in damage limitation mode. The big test for him is not May, it is next year's Scottish election. He seems to be setting Scottish Labour up for that rather than the GE, which is probably as it should be - however annoying and inconvenient that may be for Ed Miliband (who, after all, has presided over the ScotLab collapse).0
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Mike, I do realise that and whilst not the full article it was a bit on the large side. However my comment , was in relation to the smugness of Sean's overall comment.MikeSmithson said:
@SeanT dead right. PB is scanned by several media organisations and I regularly get take down notices from their solicitors.malcolmg said:
Lol, so says the moderator generalSeanT said:
Just politely trying to keep the site readable for everyone else.Theuniondivvie said:
Is that the royal 'we', or are you now a moderator?SeanT said:
We really don't need four long paragraphs of this turgid, irrelevant piffle
Also, Our Genial Host rightly disapproves of extended cut-and-pastes, due to copyright issues.
Standard form is one paragraph, max, or two at a stretch - and a link.0 -
Only 4 respondents between Conservative and Labour.MikeSmithson said:CON within 1% in today's Populus online poll
CON 35
LAB 36
LD 8
UKIP 13
GRN 4
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Maybe the best that can be said for Labour in Scotland right now is that it has reached rock bottom.0
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I'm guessing there's not going to be a HUGE amount of blowback from Hollyrood.com; in fact they'll have got a few visits they may not otherwise have received. However I nobly pledge to pay the costs of any future litigation involving this transgression.SouthamObserver said:
Cutting and pasting one third of an article is a potential copyright infringement. It really should not be done.Theuniondivvie said:
I more or less agree, but what I posted was around a third of the artice. I'd assumed SeanT's original response was an excoriating, aesthetic judgment on the piece rather a polite point of etiquette. So difficult to tell sometimes.edmundintokyo said:
1) SeanT is right, it's better not to post whole articles. Normal articles should have a paragraph (or less) and a link. Articles hidden behind paywalls should sulkily ignored to avoid giving the miserable bastards any traffic.
https://www.gov.uk/exceptions-to-copyright
Cutting and pasting any more than a line or two from behind a paywall is almost certainly an infringement.0 -
SO, are you sure on thatSouthamObserver said:Maybe the best that can be said for Labour in Scotland right now is that it has reached rock bottom.
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Latest Populus VI: Lab 36 (+1), Con 35 (+3), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 13 (-1), Greens 4 (-2) Tables here: http://popu.lu/sVI1901150
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I remember quite clearly that excellent opening section in Bonfire of the Vanities (the book) - where Sherman McCoy describes, down to the last dollar, and in such a way to have readers nodding their heads in agreement, why earning US$1m leaves him on the breadline.malcolmg said:
Thankyou Topper , as I expected and explains why despite earning lots I am still skint.TOPPING said:
http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-indexmalcolmg said:
However , in many of these countries you can live better on a minute wage than you can in the UK on a large one, so not a real way to measure how you are doing.Alistair said:
Incredibly humbling - it makes me grateful for having the good fortune to have been born where I was.SeanT said:
Even the median UK salary puts you in the top 2%, globally.Alistair said:
The UK mean salary is £26,000 thousand is but the median salary is £19,000ishSeanT said:
It's incredible, isn't t?Pulpstar said:
Fucking hell, I'm in the top 0.5% - doesn't feel that way.SeanT said:Something clever, sobering and salutary for a sultry and lazy Monday afternoon (in Bangkok):
If you earn "just" £20k a year, you're in the world's top 2% by income. Try it: http://www.globalrichlist.com/
I'm in the top 0.04%.
PS I also imagine that almost everyone on here is in the top 1% - which requires an income of just £25,000 a year - lower than the UK average salary. We are literally the 1 percent.
Quite remarkable and rather humbling.
Excellent.0 -
Boooooo we're not getting the ICM poll today.0
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As Paul Simon observed, one man's ceiling is another man's floor.SouthamObserver said:Maybe the best that can be said for Labour in Scotland right now is that it has reached rock bottom.
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How interesting, I saw a tweet counting them up earlier..... 92 peopleScrapheap_as_was said:
Interesting photograph of Farage there - it's clearly been framed to show the turnout to it's best advantage, but there can't be more than 150 people in it. That's hardly a street rammed to bursting with supporters.TheWatcher said:MikeK said:"@Nigel_Farage: Action day in South Thanet yesterday. Street full, venue full, and more arriving! pic.twitter.com/cVjrQgzhhu" #UKIP
— UKIP Tonbridge (@UKIPTonbridge) January 19, 2015
as you say the angle here is 'favourable...
The Official Kate@circusfreak88
Even if you can agree with his xenophobia, legal hand guns, do you really want a man who can't count as PM? #UKIP
Cheer up! Spurs are proud holders of the 2nd best North London football performance of the month trophy
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Interesting thought. Another interpretation is that Mr M is atually aiming at GE2015 but is responding to the shift of Scots' Westminster VI pattern to something much closer to Holyrood (ie he may have recognised that SLAB cannot rely on a Wesminster-Holyrood difference).SouthamObserver said:It's fair to say that many senior SNP politicians have changed their views on many key issues over the years, so it does not seem unreasonable for Murphy to do the same. But it is going to be a long, hard road for him to change minds that only relatively recently were actively engaged in the most passionate, committed election event the UK has seen for many a long year. I suspect that deep down Murphy realises this and that currently he is in damage limitation mode. The big test for him is not May, it is next year's Scottish election. He seems to be setting Scottish Labour up for that rather than the GE, which is probably as it should be - however annoying and inconvenient that may be for Ed Miliband (who, after all, has presided over the ScotLab collapse).
But what happens if SLAB lose more than say 5-10 seats in May? Can Mr M continue as SLAB leader? Or will nobody else want to bell the cat? He did say IIRC that SLAB would not lose a single seat, in pretty much those (admittedly ambiguous) words.
(Note BTW that the possibility that Mr M loses his own MP's seat is covered by the spin of recent months that he'll mebbe take a year off between parliaments - no doubt covered by a rule change if needed, if it was correctly understood that the SLAB leader needed to be a MP or MSP).
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Ha, ha. It's the paywall cut and pastes that are going to be the big problem for Mike. But you never know when others may get arsey.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm guessing there's not going to be a HUGE amount of blowback from Hollyrood.com; in fact they'll have got a few visits they may not otherwise have received. However I nobly pledge to pay the costs of any future litigation involving this transgression.SouthamObserver said:
Cutting and pasting one third of an article is a potential copyright infringement. It really should not be done.Theuniondivvie said:
I more or less agree, but what I posted was around a third of the artice. I'd assumed SeanT's original response was an excoriating, aesthetic judgment on the piece rather a polite point of etiquette. So difficult to tell sometimes.edmundintokyo said:
1) SeanT is right, it's better not to post whole articles. Normal articles should have a paragraph (or less) and a link. Articles hidden behind paywalls should sulkily ignored to avoid giving the miserable bastards any traffic.
https://www.gov.uk/exceptions-to-copyright
Cutting and pasting any more than a line or two from behind a paywall is almost certainly an infringement.
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0
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Guardian chap tells me we will get the ICM poll this week though.0
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How interesting, I saw a tweet counting them up earlier..... 92 peopleScrapheap_as_was said:
Interesting photograph of Farage there - it's clearly been framed to show the turnout to it's best advantage, but there can't be more than 150 people in it. That's hardly a street rammed to bursting with supporters.TheWatcher said:MikeK said:"@Nigel_Farage: Action day in South Thanet yesterday. Street full, venue full, and more arriving! pic.twitter.com/cVjrQgzhhu" #UKIP
— UKIP Tonbridge (@UKIPTonbridge) January 19, 2015
as you say the angle here is 'favourable...
The Official Kate@circusfreak88
Even if you can agree with his xenophobia, legal hand guns, do you really want a man who can't count as PM? #UKIP
Because Mr Farage is so different to other politicians, I am convinced that a press photographer just happened to be there to record this touching moment:
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/tower-of-london-poppies-mistyeyed-nigel-farage-appears-to-wipe-away-tears-during-visit-9838930.html
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Allow me to praise Ms Rhodes and her magazine - rather more balanced than some, no most, of the Scottish media, or what passes for it.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm guessing there's not going to be a HUGE amount of blowback from Hollyrood.com; in fact they'll have got a few visits they may not otherwise have received. However I nobly pledge to pay the costs of any future litigation involving this transgression.SouthamObserver said:
Cutting and pasting one third of an article is a potential copyright infringement. It really should not be done.Theuniondivvie said:
I more or less agree, but what I posted was around a third of the artice. I'd assumed SeanT's original response was an excoriating, aesthetic judgment on the piece rather a polite point of etiquette. So difficult to tell sometimes.edmundintokyo said:
1) SeanT is right, it's better not to post whole articles. Normal articles should have a paragraph (or less) and a link. Articles hidden behind paywalls should sulkily ignored to avoid giving the miserable bastards any traffic.
https://www.gov.uk/exceptions-to-copyright
Cutting and pasting any more than a line or two from behind a paywall is almost certainly an infringement.
https://www.holyrood.com/articles/editors-note/identity-crisis
Irresistible intro too -
'Two Scottish MPs, one claiming not to be a Unionist while undeniably there to defend the Union, the other proud to be a Nationalist and aware that those definitions wound his opponent up no end.
“I’m not an effing Unionist,” Murphy continually whispered in my ear [...]'
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Mike
I now have the chance to look at the Survation detail.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Scottish-Attitudes-Jan.pdf
There is no "cheer" of any kind for Labour in these figures small or otherwise. Just the opposite in fact. Here is just six of the best pointers.
1) The survey was three days later than Panelbase ie 20 per cent SNP lead three days AFTER 10 per cent SNP lead.
2) The SNP lead among women is now even higher than among men
3) The geographical breakdown is disastrous for Labour. SNP leads everywhere but biggest swings in Glasgow and West Central Scotland (58 to 28!)
4) Big SNP lead in North East suggests an "oil effect" if anything favourable to SNP
5) SNP outpolls Liberals by 2-1 in Highlands , the only place Liberals have significant support
6) SNP at 50 per cent for Scottish Parliament! In other words Labour under Murphy would get masssively less seats than the 2011 disaster under Ian Gray!
There is much, much more in the detail and all of it good news for the SNP team.
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I would expect that next Monday. But I might be wrong.Sean_F said:0 -
Because Mr Farage is so different to other politicians, I am convinced that a press photographer just happened to be there to record this touching moment:SouthamObserver said:
How interesting, I saw a tweet counting them up earlier..... 92 peopleScrapheap_as_was said:
Interesting photograph of Farage there - it's clearly been framed to show the turnout to it's best advantage, but there can't be more than 150 people in it. That's hardly a street rammed to bursting with supporters.TheWatcher said:MikeK said:"@Nigel_Farage: Action day in South Thanet yesterday. Street full, venue full, and more arriving! pic.twitter.com/cVjrQgzhhu" #UKIP
— UKIP Tonbridge (@UKIPTonbridge) January 19, 2015
as you say the angle here is 'favourable...
The Official Kate@circusfreak88
Even if you can agree with his xenophobia, legal hand guns, do you really want a man who can't count as PM? #UKIP
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/tower-of-london-poppies-mistyeyed-nigel-farage-appears-to-wipe-away-tears-during-visit-9838930.html
Farage actually refuted any claim he shed a tear here.. I pointed this out to you at the time when you tried to make this point0 -
Been away for a few days. Has anything happened? It doesn't seem like it. Currently enduring 24 season 3. Boy is it crap. It makes Tom Clancy look plausible.0
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Isam,
I regard OGH as being like the BBC. He makes an effort to be impartial but inevitably has his own slant on things. Which, unlike the BBC, he doesn't try to hide.0 -
Farage actually refuted any claim he shed a tear here.. I pointed this out to you at the time when you tried to make this pointisam said:
Because Mr Farage is so different to other politicians, I am convinced that a press photographer just happened to be there to record this touching moment:SouthamObserver said:
How interesting, I saw a tweet counting them up earlier..... 92 peopleScrapheap_as_was said:
Interesting photograph of Farage there - it's clearly been framed to show the turnout to it's best advantage, but there can't be more than 150 people in it. That's hardly a street rammed to bursting with supporters.TheWatcher said:MikeK said:"@Nigel_Farage: Action day in South Thanet yesterday. Street full, venue full, and more arriving! pic.twitter.com/cVjrQgzhhu" #UKIP
— UKIP Tonbridge (@UKIPTonbridge) January 19, 2015
as you say the angle here is 'favourable...
The Official Kate@circusfreak88
Even if you can agree with his xenophobia, legal hand guns, do you really want a man who can't count as PM? #UKIP
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/tower-of-london-poppies-mistyeyed-nigel-farage-appears-to-wipe-away-tears-during-visit-9838930.html
He just had something in his eyes:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/nigel-farage-weeps-outside-tower-of-london-remembrance-day-poppy-memorial-9839275.html
0 -
Women: hmm, so all that footie stuff from SLAB has gone down well eh?scotslass said:Mike
I now have the chance to look at the Survation detail.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Scottish-Attitudes-Jan.pdf
There is no "cheer" of any kind for Labour in these figures small or otherwise. Just the opposite in fact. Here is just six of the best pointers.
1) The survey was three days later than Panelbase ie 20 per cent SNP lead three days AFTER 10 per cent SNP lead.
2) The SNP lead among women is now even higher than among men
3) The geographical breakdown is disastrous for Labour. SNP leads everywhere but biggest swings in Glasgow and West Central Scotland (58 to 28!)
4) Big SNP lead in North East suggests an "oil effect" if anything favourable to SNP
5) SNP outpolls Liberals by 2-1 in Highlands , the only place Liberals have significant support
6) SNP at 50 per cent for Scottish Parliament! In other words Labour under Murphy would get masssively less seats than the 2011 disaster under Ian Gray!
There is much, much more in the detail and all of it good news for the SNP team.
Not so sure about Holyrood - in reality a bit more compelx because of the Caucus Race effect in which Labour fiddled the voting system so 'everyone has won and all must have a prize', to quote the Dodo ...
0 -
How is fracking in Scotland going to play out?malcolmg said:
Not many in Scotland share your optimism , apart from a few Tory surgers.antifrank said:
Jim Murphy understands who he needs to get back to Labour and has some understanding of what motivates them. I'm far from convinced that he has time to achieve the job for May to salvage much from the wreckage, or that the people he needs to get back are ready to listen to him.fitalass said:Nope, you are obviously not ready to admit that this smart politics by Jim Murphy when it comes to targeting the Scots voters he is trying to persuade to vote for Labour at the next GE. I doubt that dyed in the wool Yes voting Celtic fans are at the top of that list. He is at least attempting to bring together and unite Scots with this campaign, whereas the SNP seem determined to maintain the politics of division...
Theuniondivvie said:
There are people who give a toss about honours, and there are people who don't. I'm pretty sure Yes voting Celtic supporters are in the latter category.fitalass said:You are obviously not old enough to remember the popularity of both Billy McNeil and John Greig.... Go on, admit it through gnashing of teeth, this is extremely smart politics from Jim Murphy?
Theuniondivvie said:
UK honours have always gone down well with the Green Brigade.malcolmg said:
How pathetic can Murphy get, he now wants knighthoods for Billy McNeil and John Greig. You just could not make it up.Theuniondivvie said:As J***s K***y notes, the much touted SCon revival on the back of Davidson's 'good' referendum appears entirely absent. It seems, as with Murphy, that despite winning the referendum, it has had very few knock-on benefits for Unionist pols.
It's just another example of Murphy's slightly tin-eared hoordom: 'You like this, and this? Is this doing it for you baby?'
0 -
I'd say that Scotland is currently EdM's disaster. Anyone in Labour blaming Murphy for a Labour catastrophe in May would be insane, though I am sure a few will. At some stage, though, Scotland will move into post-post-referendum mode. That's when the spotlight will fully fall on JM.Carnyx said:
Interesting thought. Another interpretation is that Mr M is atually aiming at GE2015 but is responding to the shift of Scots' Westminster VI pattern to something much closer to Holyrood (ie he may have recognised that SLAB cannot rely on a Wesminster-Holyrood difference).SouthamObserver said:It's fair to say that many senior SNP politicians have changed their views on many key issues over the years, so it does not seem unreasonable for Murphy to do the same. But it is going to be a long, hard road for him to change minds that only relatively recently were actively engaged in the most passionate, committed election event the UK has seen for many a long year. I suspect that deep down Murphy realises this and that currently he is in damage limitation mode. The big test for him is not May, it is next year's Scottish election. He seems to be setting Scottish Labour up for that rather than the GE, which is probably as it should be - however annoying and inconvenient that may be for Ed Miliband (who, after all, has presided over the ScotLab collapse).
But what happens if SLAB lose more than say 5-10 seats in May? Can Mr M continue as SLAB leader? Or will nobody else want to bell the cat? He did say IIRC that SLAB would not lose a single seat, in pretty much those (admittedly ambiguous) words.
(Note BTW that the possibility that Mr M loses his own MP's seat is covered by the spin of recent months that he'll mebbe take a year off between parliaments - no doubt covered by a rule change if needed, if it was correctly understood that the SLAB leader needed to be a MP or MSP).
0 -
Encouraging poll for both Lab and Con in terms of their respective levels of support. It must be the first time their combined share of the vote has been > 70% for quite some time. Are people's minds at last being focused with the GE now only three and a half months away?TheScreamingEagles said:Latest Populus VI: Lab 36 (+1), Con 35 (+3), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 13 (-1), Greens 4 (-2) Tables here: http://popu.lu/sVI190115
0 -
He just had something in his eyes:SouthamObserver said:
Farage actually refuted any claim he shed a tear here.. I pointed this out to you at the time when you tried to make this pointisam said:
Because Mr Farage is so different to other politicians, I am convinced that a press photographer just happened to be there to record this touching moment:SouthamObserver said:
How interesting, I saw a tweet counting them up earlier..... 92 peopleScrapheap_as_was said:
Interesting photograph of Farage there - it's clearly been framed to show the turnout to it's best advantage, but there can't be more than 150 people in it. That's hardly a street rammed to bursting with supporters.TheWatcher said:MikeK said:"@Nigel_Farage: Action day in South Thanet yesterday. Street full, venue full, and more arriving! pic.twitter.com/cVjrQgzhhu" #UKIP
— UKIP Tonbridge (@UKIPTonbridge) January 19, 2015
as you say the angle here is 'favourable...
The Official Kate@circusfreak88
Even if you can agree with his xenophobia, legal hand guns, do you really want a man who can't count as PM? #UKIP
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/tower-of-london-poppies-mistyeyed-nigel-farage-appears-to-wipe-away-tears-during-visit-9838930.html
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/people/nigel-farage-weeps-outside-tower-of-london-remembrance-day-poppy-memorial-9839275.html
Maybe! You'll believe what you want to I suppose0 -
Miss Plato, not really.
Labour are pretending their price freeze doesn't mean freezing prices, and the Conservatives are pretending Cameron's policy of setting fire to the internet isn't completely stupid. The Lib Dems are also participating in the election.0 -
Belatedly, can I comment on your question from the other day?scotslass said:Mike
I now have the chance to look at the Survation detail.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Scottish-Attitudes-Jan.pdf
There is no "cheer" of any kind for Labour in these figures small or otherwise. Just the opposite in fact. Here is just six of the best pointers.
1) The survey was three days later than Panelbase ie 20 per cent SNP lead three days AFTER 10 per cent SNP lead.
2) The SNP lead among women is now even higher than among men
3) The geographical breakdown is disastrous for Labour. SNP leads everywhere but biggest swings in Glasgow and West Central Scotland (58 to 28!)
4) Big SNP lead in North East suggests an "oil effect" if anything favourable to SNP
5) SNP outpolls Liberals by 2-1 in Highlands , the only place Liberals have significant support
6) SNP at 50 per cent for Scottish Parliament! In other words Labour under Murphy would get masssively less seats than the 2011 disaster under Ian Gray!
There is much, much more in the detail and all of it good news for the SNP team.
If you're betting on constituencies in Scotland, you have to accept that is an inherently risky thing to do. Scottish politics has been upended, and no one really knows exactly how it is playing out.
That said, I do think that there are value bets there for those with high appetites for risk. There have to be, if the SNP are odds against in most Labour-held seats but are well ahead of them in the polls.
Your strategy of looking at the 2011 Holyrood votes seems perfectly sensible to me, but make sure you don't exclude other possibilities too. In the absence of constituency polls, we're all making educated guesses as to how exactly the SNP rise in support is playing out. I've made some suggestions on my site, but I'm fairly tentative about them.
Because of the uncertainty, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Try to get a few constituencies covered.0 -
Is why I said Populus might be the gold standard at the election.peter_from_putney said:
Encouraging poll for both Lab and Con in terms of their respective levels of support. It must be the first time their combined share of the vote has been > 70% for quite some time. Are people's minds at last being focussed with the GE now only three and a half months away?TheScreamingEagles said:Latest Populus VI: Lab 36 (+1), Con 35 (+3), LD 8 (-1), UKIP 13 (-1), Greens 4 (-2) Tables here: http://popu.lu/sVI190115
0 -
Mr. CD13, very unfair on Mr. Smithson. He doesn't demand £3bn a year, complain about not getting enough money, or throw away F1 coverage using a line of reasoning that would make Judas Iscariot blush.0
-
YouGov have put Peter Kellner's article from the Sunday Times up.
If he's right then there's some decent bets out there.
David Cameron is on course to lead the largest party following May’s general election – but it could be touch and go whether he can remain prime minister
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/01/19/how-cameron-could-win-and-lose/0 -
I've looked through the table, and my god those Labour majorities - nevertheless an 11% swing sounds less than a 10,000 majority and the swing to the SNP in Scotland is way above that.antifrank said:And on topic, I put an up-to-date table of the Scottish constituencies up the other night, organised by the odds on the SNP taking each seat:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Q1JhT0dtUEVRckk/view?usp=sharing
William Hill have now put up prices for quite a lot of Scottish constituencies.
I've put up quite enough posts on Scotland recently and don't intend putting up another in the near future, but I thought others might find this useful.
I think that there are still some bargains here. The SNP are second favourites in the bulk of these seats, in stark contrast to what you would expect from their poll ratings.
You'd have to expect things to change pretty rapidly for there not to be seats worth betting on here.
Over at UK Polling report they think Livingston is a Lab Hold, but it looks like a decent SNP bet to me
£50 @ 11-10 it is.0 -
I like the mock Green party poster about the debates:
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/01/16/greens-leaders-debates-poster_n_6487498.html?utm_hp_ref=tw
I doubt even after the surge that there are the resources to actually put this on real poster sites though.0 -
I can do you some pedantry... the problem isn't offer and acceptance since it seems on the facts there were both, it's about intention to create legal relations.MarqueeMark said:
Disappointed in you, pb.com. I thought SOMEBODY would come back with "No, a party invite is an invitation to treats...."MarqueeMark said:
Interesting issues around offer and acceptance under contract law.... Is a party invite merely an invitation to treat?dr_spyn said:Case for PB's finest legal minds to fight over?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30876360
Should she also claim for the present he would have brought? Should he seek to set off the price of a party bag?
0 -
You are probably right in the first bit. However, as regards the spotlight, if you lived up here, you'd realise that Mr M already has a higher media profile than W/Cdr Gibson the day after the Dams Raid. I hate to think how unreadable the media would be if you are right. As it is, one might almost think that Mr M is leader of the UK Labour Party as well as the Scottish Labour Party (not that they aren;t the same, but let's not worry about whether putting a see you jimmy hat on a Devon cow makes it into a Hielan coo ...).SouthamObserver said:
I'd say that Scotland is currently EdM's disaster. Anyone in Labour blaming Murphy for a Labour catastrophe in May would be insane, though I am sure a few will. At some stage, though, Scotland will move into post-post-referendum mode. That's when the spotlight will fully fall on JM.Carnyx said:
Interesting thought. Another interpretation is that Mr M is atually aiming at GE2015 but is responding to the shift of Scots' Westminster VI pattern to something much closer to Holyrood (ie he may have recognised that SLAB cannot rely on a Wesminster-Holyrood difference).SouthamObserver said:It's fair to say that many senior SNP politicians have changed their views on many key issues over the years, so it does not seem unreasonable for Murphy to do the same. But it is going to be a long, hard road for him to change minds that only relatively recently were actively engaged in the most passionate, committed election event the UK has seen for many a long year. I suspect that deep down Murphy realises this and that currently he is in damage limitation mode. The big test for him is not May, it is next year's Scottish election. He seems to be setting Scottish Labour up for that rather than the GE, which is probably as it should be - however annoying and inconvenient that may be for Ed Miliband (who, after all, has presided over the ScotLab collapse).
But what happens if SLAB lose more than say 5-10 seats in May? Can Mr M continue as SLAB leader? Or will nobody else want to bell the cat? He did say IIRC that SLAB would not lose a single seat, in pretty much those (admittedly ambiguous) words.
(Note BTW that the possibility that Mr M loses his own MP's seat is covered by the spin of recent months that he'll mebbe take a year off between parliaments - no doubt covered by a rule change if needed, if it was correctly understood that the SLAB leader needed to be a MP or MSP).
[edited to alter a minor zoological error]
0 -
Given Tom Clancy wrote about a terror attack of an airliner being crashed into a building thats not too hard.Plato said:Been away for a few days. Has anything happened? It doesn't seem like it. Currently enduring 24 season 3. Boy is it crap. It makes Tom Clancy look plausible.
0 -
Morning all.
The single most important thing I did to reduce my heating bills was to insulate my house properly and eliminate as many draughts as possible. It has made a huge difference both to the bills and to our comfort.
Improving our existing housing stock would do at least as much as price freezing/lower energy bills and what-have-you to reduce what people have to spend and our carbon emissions.
That and telling teenagers who seem to think a light T-shirt is adequate wear for early January to stop moaning and put some clothes on.
Boring, unglamorous, old-fashioned: yes but essential IMO.0 -
Betfair sportsbook have put up a lot of constituencies too now.. Their prices arent that different from the others.... but if you have been restricted by other firms its a chance to get some more onantifrank said:
Belatedly, can I comment on your question from the other day?scotslass said:Mike
I now have the chance to look at the Survation detail.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Scottish-Attitudes-Jan.pdf
There is no "cheer" of any kind for Labour in these figures small or otherwise. Just the opposite in fact. Here is just six of the best pointers.
1) The survey was three days later than Panelbase ie 20 per cent SNP lead three days AFTER 10 per cent SNP lead.
2) The SNP lead among women is now even higher than among men
3) The geographical breakdown is disastrous for Labour. SNP leads everywhere but biggest swings in Glasgow and West Central Scotland (58 to 28!)
4) Big SNP lead in North East suggests an "oil effect" if anything favourable to SNP
5) SNP outpolls Liberals by 2-1 in Highlands , the only place Liberals have significant support
6) SNP at 50 per cent for Scottish Parliament! In other words Labour under Murphy would get masssively less seats than the 2011 disaster under Ian Gray!
There is much, much more in the detail and all of it good news for the SNP team.
If you're betting on constituencies in Scotland, you have to accept that is an inherently risky thing to do. Scottish politics has been upended, and no one really knows exactly how it is playing out.
That said, I do think that there are value bets there for those with high appetites for risk. There have to be, if the SNP are odds against in most Labour-held seats but are well ahead of them in the polls.
Your strategy of looking at the 2011 Holyrood votes seems perfectly sensible to me, but make sure you don't exclude other possibilities too. In the absence of constituency polls, we're all making educated guesses as to how exactly the SNP rise in support is playing out. I've made some suggestions on my site, but I'm fairly tentative about them.
Because of the uncertainty, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Try to get a few constituencies covered.0 -
I'll need to double check at home but I think I'm red Lab most Seats, green Ed PM.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov have put Peter Kellner's article from the Sunday Times up.
If he's right then there's some decent bets out there.
David Cameron is on course to lead the largest party following May’s general election – but it could be touch and go whether he can remain prime minister
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/01/19/how-cameron-could-win-and-lose/0 -
Neil,
I can understand the Greens being against fracking (nasty chemicals and all that), but would they also have been against developing North Sea oil in the 1960s?
Coal mining obviously would have been a no-no.
Just curious.0 -
Dunno. But there is an obvious asymmetry -volcanopete said:
How is fracking in Scotland going to play out?malcolmg said:
Not many in Scotland share your optimism , apart from a few Tory surgers.antifrank said:
Jim Murphy understands who he needs to get back to Labour and has some understanding of what motivates them. I'm far from convinced that he has time to achieve the job for May to salvage much from the wreckage, or that the people he needs to get back are ready to listen to him.fitalass said:Nope, you are obviously not ready to admit that this smart politics by Jim Murphy when it comes to targeting the Scots voters he is trying to persuade to vote for Labour at the next GE. I doubt that dyed in the wool Yes voting Celtic fans are at the top of that list. He is at least attempting to bring together and unite Scots with this campaign, whereas the SNP seem determined to maintain the politics of division...
Theuniondivvie said:
There are people who give a toss about honours, and there are people who don't. I'm pretty sure Yes voting Celtic supporters are in the latter category.fitalass said:You are obviously not old enough to remember the popularity of both Billy McNeil and John Greig.... Go on, admit it through gnashing of teeth, this is extremely smart politics from Jim Murphy?
Theuniondivvie said:
UK honours have always gone down well with the Green Brigade.malcolmg said:
How pathetic can Murphy get, he now wants knighthoods for Billy McNeil and John Greig. You just could not make it up.Theuniondivvie said:As J***s K***y notes, the much touted SCon revival on the back of Davidson's 'good' referendum appears entirely absent. It seems, as with Murphy, that despite winning the referendum, it has had very few knock-on benefits for Unionist pols.
It's just another example of Murphy's slightly tin-eared hoordom: 'You like this, and this? Is this doing it for you baby?'
Westminster provides the licences and get the money
Scotland (ie the taxpayers) get the pollution and the costs
Consider how that plays out, especially if the offshore industry does not get the support it is expecting after being such a cash cow for London for decades (this is not a SNP thing but dominating the business news up here).
0 -
The Scottish Greens are kinda against now. They should probably rejig their website copy though (temporarily).CD13 said:Neil,
I can understand the Greens being against fracking (nasty chemicals and all that), but would they also have been against developing North Sea oil in the 1960s?
'The world is also facing the end of the age of cheap oil.
- See more at: http://www.scottishgreens.org.uk/policy/energy/#sthash.jExsRc0R.dpuf'0 -
If you were to ask anyone who has edited PB, myself, David Herdson, Double Carpet et al, the hardest task isn't writing the threads, but working out what topic you should write about.CD13 said:Isam,
I regard OGH as being like the BBC. He makes an effort to be impartial but inevitably has his own slant on things. Which, unlike the BBC, he doesn't try to hide.
No matter what you choose, somebody will never be happy.
Additionally, it is bloody hard to write a PB thread, when it is someone you know personally.0 -
Indeed. I was thinking of how absurd 24 is in comparison to 911. It's off the charts. Jack Bruer makes Arnie look ordinary. A nuclear bomb in LA that he pilots away to the Mojave and bailes out? A killer virus bomb in LA? A daughter kidnapped twice or was it three times in one day.0
-
Shouldnt they wait until the Scottish Government revises its projections for oil prices?Theuniondivvie said:
The Scottish Greens are kinda against now. They should probably rejig their website copy though (temporarily).
'The world is also facing the end of the age of cheap oil.
- See more at: http://www.scottishgreens.org.uk/policy/energy/#sthash.jExsRc0R.dpuf'0 -
TSE it's easy.TheScreamingEagles said:
If you were to ask anyone who has edited PB, myself, David Herdson, Double Carpet et al, the hardest task isn't writing the threads, but working out what topic you should write about.CD13 said:Isam,
I regard OGH as being like the BBC. He makes an effort to be impartial but inevitably has his own slant on things. Which, unlike the BBC, he doesn't try to hide.
No matter what you choose, somebody will never be happy.
Additionally, it is bloody hard to write a PB thread, when it is someone you know personally.
Nothing about
1. Voting reform
2. Scotland
3. The debates
4. The latest opinion polls
5. Coalitions
6. PMQs
7. Bye-elections
8. Cyclegate
9. Nigel
Other than that you're good.
Looking forward to the next thread on 8th May.
0 -
Nobody wants it , but as London have now said Scotland decides who does it as long as SNP in charge it will be curtailed, so likely to be helpful to them for sure.volcanopete said:
How is fracking in Scotland going to play out?malcolmg said:
Not many in Scotland share your optimism , apart from a few Tory surgers.antifrank said:
Jim Murphy understands who he needs to get back to Labour and has some understanding of what motivates them. I'm far from convinced that he has time to achieve the job for May to salvage much from the wreckage, or that the people he needs to get back are ready to listen to him.fitalass said:Nope, you are obviously not ready to admit that this smart politics by Jim Murphy when it comes to targeting the Scots voters he is trying to persuade to vote for Labour at the next GE. I doubt that dyed in the wool Yes voting Celtic fans are at the top of that list. He is at least attempting to bring together and unite Scots with this campaign, whereas the SNP seem determined to maintain the politics of division...
Theuniondivvie said:
There are people who give a toss about honours, and there are people who don't. I'm pretty sure Yes voting Celtic supporters are in the latter category.fitalass said:You are obviously not old enough to remember the popularity of both Billy McNeil and John Greig.... Go on, admit it through gnashing of teeth, this is extremely smart politics from Jim Murphy?
Theuniondivvie said:
UK honours have always gone down well with the Green Brigade.malcolmg said:
How pathetic can Murphy get, he now wants knighthoods for Billy McNeil and John Greig. You just could not make it up.Theuniondivvie said:As J***s K***y notes, the much touted SCon revival on the back of Davidson's 'good' referendum appears entirely absent. It seems, as with Murphy, that despite winning the referendum, it has had very few knock-on benefits for Unionist pols.
It's just another example of Murphy's slightly tin-eared hoordom: 'You like this, and this? Is this doing it for you baby?'0 -
All the more so when the Government is throwing money at us in an attempt to convince us to insulate. Many of the elderly in receipt of the £200 Winter Fuel Allowance would be considerably better off if they were to be paid to have their homes properly protected from the cold weather.Cyclefree said:Morning all.
The single most important thing I did to reduce my heating bills was to insulate my house properly and eliminate as many draughts as possible. It has made a huge difference both to the bills and to our comfort.
Improving our existing housing stock would do at least as much as price freezing/lower energy bills and what-have-you to reduce what people have to spend and our carbon emissions.
That and telling teenagers who seem to think a light T-shirt is adequate wear for early January to stop moaning and put some clothes on.
Boring, unglamorous, old-fashioned: yes but essential IMO.0 -
I have a two pre-prepared* threads, ready to be used on a rainy day, one of them is on AV/Electoral reform the other is comparing Ed Miliband to Hannibal (the inept general of yore and Colonel John "Hannibal" Smith of the A-Team)TOPPING said:
TSE it's easy.TheScreamingEagles said:
If you were to ask anyone who has edited PB, myself, David Herdson, Double Carpet et al, the hardest task isn't writing the threads, but working out what topic you should write about.CD13 said:Isam,
I regard OGH as being like the BBC. He makes an effort to be impartial but inevitably has his own slant on things. Which, unlike the BBC, he doesn't try to hide.
No matter what you choose, somebody will never be happy.
Additionally, it is bloody hard to write a PB thread, when it is someone you know personally.
Nothing about
1. Voting reform
2. Scotland
3. The debates
4. The latest opinion polls
5. Coalitions
6. PMQs
7. Bye-elections
8. Cyclegate
9. Nigel
Other than that you're good.
Looking forward to the next thread on 8th May.
*Horrendous tautology I know.0 -
The Conservatives are amassing funds in the belief that that GE2015 could be shortly followed by another GE.TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov have put Peter Kellner's article from the Sunday Times up.
If he's right then there's some decent bets out there.
David Cameron is on course to lead the largest party following May’s general election – but it could be touch and go whether he can remain prime minister
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/01/19/how-cameron-could-win-and-lose/
0 -
Wasn't necessarily a big moan, just that it is an interesting seat, ( a three way go), Mike has found a betting angle, and the candidate selection itself was a national news story twiceTheScreamingEagles said:
If you were to ask anyone who has edited PB, myself, David Herdson, Double Carpet et al, the hardest task isn't writing the threads, but working out what topic you should write about.CD13 said:Isam,
I regard OGH as being like the BBC. He makes an effort to be impartial but inevitably has his own slant on things. Which, unlike the BBC, he doesn't try to hide.
No matter what you choose, somebody will never be happy.
Additionally, it is bloody hard to write a PB thread, when it is someone you know personally.
Seemed very relevant to politics and betting, where as constant polling analysis threads tend to go round in circles/be old news pretty quickly
Who can forget my devastatingly original thread on Ed Miliband and his non policies? And I have offered several threads that have been ignored so have tried to help out0 -
Here are the Tory levels of support in all Populus polls this year, for the 65+ age group:
46%, 44%, 38%, 44%, 52%.
Guess which one comes in the most recent Populus, after the introduction of the pensioner bribebond?0 -
TPD Reckless on BBCDP today.
Nothing more motivating to get my filing done and rename some scanned paperwork....0 -
Cheer up! Spurs are proud holders of the 2nd best North London football performance of the month trophyisam said:
How interesting, I saw a tweet counting them up earlier..... 92 peopleScrapheap_as_was said:
Interesting photograph of Farage there - it's clearly been framed to show the turnout to it's best advantage, but there can't be more than 150 people in it. That's hardly a street rammed to bursting with supporters.TheWatcher said:MikeK said:"@Nigel_Farage: Action day in South Thanet yesterday. Street full, venue full, and more arriving! pic.twitter.com/cVjrQgzhhu" #UKIP
— UKIP Tonbridge (@UKIPTonbridge) January 19, 2015
as you say the angle here is 'favourable...
The Official Kate@circusfreak88
Even if you can agree with his xenophobia, legal hand guns, do you really want a man who can't count as PM? #UKIP
Indeed - Typical Gonners always have to pip us - at least we've beaten this season's PL Champs!0 -
I don't think alliances made during the referendum campaign extend to the Scottish Greens waiting breathlessly upon pronouncements made by the SNP government.Neil said:
Shouldnt they wait until the Scottish Government revises its projections for oil prices?Theuniondivvie said:
The Scottish Greens are kinda against now. They should probably rejig their website copy though (temporarily).
'The world is also facing the end of the age of cheap oil.
- See more at: http://www.scottishgreens.org.uk/policy/energy/#sthash.jExsRc0R.dpuf'0 -
There's a fascinating case about coal bed methane playing out around Canonbie on the Scottish Border. It has it all, dodgy and duplicitous planning applications, feudal land ownership structures, secret deals to block other conglomerates.volcanopete said:
How is fracking in Scotland going to play out?malcolmg said:
Not many in Scotland share your optimism , apart from a few Tory surgers.antifrank said:
Jim Murphy understands who he needs to get back to Labour and has some understanding of what motivates them. I'm far from convinced that he has time to achieve the job for May to salvage much from the wreckage, or that the people he needs to get back are ready to listen to him.fitalass said:Nope, you are obviously not ready to admit that this smart politics by Jim Murphy when it comes to targeting the Scots voters he is trying to persuade to vote for Labour at the next GE. I doubt that dyed in the wool Yes voting Celtic fans are at the top of that list. He is at least attempting to bring together and unite Scots with this campaign, whereas the SNP seem determined to maintain the politics of division...
Theuniondivvie said:
There are people who give a toss about honours, and there are people who don't. I'm pretty sure Yes voting Celtic supporters are in the latter category.fitalass said:You are obviously not old enough to remember the popularity of both Billy McNeil and John Greig.... Go on, admit it through gnashing of teeth, this is extremely smart politics from Jim Murphy?
Theuniondivvie said:
UK honours have always gone down well with the Green Brigade.malcolmg said:
How pathetic can Murphy get, he now wants knighthoods for Billy McNeil and John Greig. You just could not make it up.Theuniondivvie said:As J***s K***y notes, the much touted SCon revival on the back of Davidson's 'good' referendum appears entirely absent. It seems, as with Murphy, that despite winning the referendum, it has had very few knock-on benefits for Unionist pols.
It's just another example of Murphy's slightly tin-eared hoordom: 'You like this, and this? Is this doing it for you baby?'0 -
Indeed - Typical Gonners always have to pip us - at least we've beaten this season's PL Champs!Scrapheap_as_was said:
Cheer up! Spurs are proud holders of the 2nd best North London football performance of the month trophyisam said:
How interesting, I saw a tweet counting them up earlier..... 92 peopleScrapheap_as_was said:
Interesting photograph of Farage there - it's clearly been framed to show the turnout to it's best advantage, but there can't be more than 150 people in it. That's hardly a street rammed to bursting with supporters.TheWatcher said:MikeK said:"@Nigel_Farage: Action day in South Thanet yesterday. Street full, venue full, and more arriving! pic.twitter.com/cVjrQgzhhu" #UKIP
— UKIP Tonbridge (@UKIPTonbridge) January 19, 2015
as you say the angle here is 'favourable...
The Official Kate@circusfreak88
Even if you can agree with his xenophobia, legal hand guns, do you really want a man who can't count as PM? #UKIP
It seems so.. would love to see them nause it but looks unlikely
0 -
Populus close(ish) to my 35/35/10/10 prediction.
If the polsters stay so far apart on combined LabCon share some are going to be a long way off the actual result. Presumably it is all down to past vote weighting/treatment of don't knows and other fudge factors. However, 35/35 seems more likely than 30/30 to me.0 -
Not boring at all. Interesting (to me anyway) because I have just been offered this by nPower and couldn't work out whether worth it or not. So thanks - will have another look.SeanT said:
This is possibly my boringest comment ever, but have you tried HIVE? It's heating you control with wifi, from your PC, laptop, iPad, smartphone, anywhere in the world - or from your nice warm bed. Amazing.Cyclefree said:Morning all.
The single most important thing I did to reduce my heating bills was to insulate my house properly and eliminate as many draughts as possible. It has made a huge difference both to the bills and to our comfort.
Improving our existing housing stock would do at least as much as price freezing/lower energy bills and what-have-you to reduce what people have to spend and our carbon emissions.
That and telling teenagers who seem to think a light T-shirt is adequate wear for early January to stop moaning and put some clothes on.
Boring, unglamorous, old-fashioned: yes but essential IMO.
https://www.hivehome.com/
It asks you - as you leave the house - do you want to turn your heating off, or down, or set it at 13C for 3 hours? It offers automatic frost protection. It saves £100s.
I just got a hefty rebate from NPower - three figures - because after installing Hive my heating bills nosedived, and I had overpaid.
BTW - just to show how much draughts cost you - and what a difference two mild winters make - my combined monthly gas/electricity payments dropped by nearly four-fifths.
0 -
Mr Eagles,
As you say, whatever threads you put up, the 'others' will suspect they're being short changed.
Many Labour people accuse the BBC of being rabidly right wing. We all have our biases, and despite what some people think, even scientists do.
That's why some theories last longer than they should. Incidentally, string theory and M theory, beloved of Stephen Hawking, also seems to be drifting out of fashion. I can't follow the maths but it appears the concept of eleven dimensions and a multiverse may be losing popularity.
Even 'Big Bang' the sitcom has the character Sheldon Cooper wanting to switch from it (and the script writers do receive advice from the theoretical physics experts).
It's lasted thirty years and I thought it might linger as it's virtually impossible to prove it false. I may be an old fuddy-duddy, but I'd call that metaphysics. But it made things interesting for a while - the aim of many scientific theories.
0 -
The big polling question today is will Lord Ashcroft's poll retain its gold standard status ?0
-
Hollande's approval rating has risen to 40%. It's the biggest jump in the history of French polling:
http://www.france24.com/en/20150119-hollande-approval-rate-doubles-wake-terror-attacks-ifop-poll-france/0 -
One of the funniest books I have ever read. The trial scenes were also hysterical.TOPPING said:
I remember quite clearly that excellent opening section in Bonfire of the Vanities (the book) - where Sherman McCoy describes, down to the last dollar, and in such a way to have readers nodding their heads in agreement, why earning US$1m leaves him on the breadline.malcolmg said:
Thankyou Topper , as I expected and explains why despite earning lots I am still skint.TOPPING said:
http://www.economist.com/content/big-mac-indexmalcolmg said:
However , in many of these countries you can live better on a minute wage than you can in the UK on a large one, so not a real way to measure how you are doing.Alistair said:
Incredibly humbling - it makes me grateful for having the good fortune to have been born where I was.SeanT said:
Even the median UK salary puts you in the top 2%, globally.Alistair said:
The UK mean salary is £26,000 thousand is but the median salary is £19,000ishSeanT said:
It's incredible, isn't t?Pulpstar said:
Fucking hell, I'm in the top 0.5% - doesn't feel that way.SeanT said:Something clever, sobering and salutary for a sultry and lazy Monday afternoon (in Bangkok):
If you earn "just" £20k a year, you're in the world's top 2% by income. Try it: http://www.globalrichlist.com/
I'm in the top 0.04%.
PS I also imagine that almost everyone on here is in the top 1% - which requires an income of just £25,000 a year - lower than the UK average salary. We are literally the 1 percent.
Quite remarkable and rather humbling.
Excellent.0 -
It's not uncommon for Populus to give combined scores of c.70% for the big two, with correspondingly lower scores for UKIP and the Greens.SandyRentool said:Populus close(ish) to my 35/35/10/10 prediction.
If the polsters stay so far apart on combined LabCon share some are going to be a long way off the actual result. Presumably it is all down to past vote weighting/treatment of don't knows and other fudge factors. However, 35/35 seems more likely than 30/30 to me.
Telephone polling companies tend to produce lower combined scores for Con/Lab than online companies, although last week's MORI poll was an exception.
0 -
Oxfam (they used to worry about famine) are filling the BBC news channels with this "report" into global inequality. 10 years ago other NGOs complained about Oxfam's closeness with the Labour party. From the New Statesman May 2005.
http://www.newstatesman.com/world-affairs/world-affairs/2014/04/why-oxfam-failing-africa
"One senior NGO official .....describes the relationship as "far too cosy". He says: "They have incredible access, and what that has meant is that Oxfam are the ones who are always asked to speak for the whole development movement.......They have decided that, in the longer term, their lot is best served by being in with Labour and they go out on a limb to endorse the government.""0 -
Practice also makes a huge difference. I find a thermostat over 17c stifling. I wear t-shirts in January too. Sometimes house guests keep their coats on though :-oCyclefree said:
Not boring at all. Interesting (to me anyway) because I have just been offered this by nPower and couldn't work out whether worth it or not. So thanks - will have another look.SeanT said:
This is possibly my boringest comment ever, but have you tried HIVE? It's heating you control with wifi, from your PC, laptop, iPad, smartphone, anywhere in the world - or from your nice warm bed. Amazing.Cyclefree said:Morning all.
The single most important thing I did to reduce my heating bills was to insulate my house properly and eliminate as many draughts as possible. It has made a huge difference both to the bills and to our comfort.
Improving our existing housing stock would do at least as much as price freezing/lower energy bills and what-have-you to reduce what people have to spend and our carbon emissions.
That and telling teenagers who seem to think a light T-shirt is adequate wear for early January to stop moaning and put some clothes on.
Boring, unglamorous, old-fashioned: yes but essential IMO.
https://www.hivehome.com/
It asks you - as you leave the house - do you want to turn your heating off, or down, or set it at 13C for 3 hours? It offers automatic frost protection. It saves £100s.
I just got a hefty rebate from NPower - three figures - because after installing Hive my heating bills nosedived, and I had overpaid.
BTW - just to show how much draughts cost you - and what a difference two mild winters make - my combined monthly gas/electricity payments dropped by nearly four-fifths.0 -
When you were a teenager you would have said "it's fashionable" in a tone which implied that explained everything, and no further discussion was required... my sister did, my daughter would do it we didn't live in the tropicsCyclefree said:That and telling teenagers who seem to think a light T-shirt is adequate wear for early January to stop moaning and put some clothes on.
0 -
What happens when the North Koreans hack the system?SeanT said:
It's definitely worth it. Here's a positive review (and I think they underplay the money-saving aspect). Hive and its cousins are also the future of heating, for sure: within 10 years all domestic central heating will be operated this way - might as well start now?Cyclefree said:
Not boring at all. Interesting (to me anyway) because I have just been offered this by nPower and couldn't work out whether worth it or not. So thanks - will have another look.SeanT said:
This is possibly my boringest comment ever, but have you tried HIVE? It's heating you control with wifi, from your PC, laptop, iPad, smartphone, anywhere in the world - or from your nice warm bed. Amazing.Cyclefree said:Morning all.
The single most important thing I did to reduce my heating bills was to insulate my house properly and eliminate as many draughts as possible. It has made a huge difference both to the bills and to our comfort.
Improving our existing housing stock would do at least as much as price freezing/lower energy bills and what-have-you to reduce what people have to spend and our carbon emissions.
That and telling teenagers who seem to think a light T-shirt is adequate wear for early January to stop moaning and put some clothes on.
Boring, unglamorous, old-fashioned: yes but essential IMO.
https://www.hivehome.com/
It asks you - as you leave the house - do you want to turn your heating off, or down, or set it at 13C for 3 hours? It offers automatic frost protection. It saves £100s.
I just got a hefty rebate from NPower - three figures - because after installing Hive my heating bills nosedived, and I had overpaid.
BTW - just to show how much draughts cost you - and what a difference two mild winters make - my combined monthly gas/electricity payments dropped by nearly four-fifths.
http://www.techradar.com/reviews/gadgets/appliances/british-gas-hive-1266485/review0 -
For those looking to replace their boiler also very very much worth looking at the new Flow boilers. They generate electricity from your gas supply and heat water. Thermally this is alot more efficient than generating in a power station and transmitting the electricity long distances. The water is heated as a by-product of the power or as 'surge' demand when needed. Dramatic cuts to both gas AND ELECTRICITY bills.SeanT said:
It's definitely worth it. Here's a positive review (and I think they underplay the money-saving aspect). Hive and its cousins are also the future of heating, for sure: within 10 years all domestic central heating will be operated this way - might as well start now?Cyclefree said:
Not boring at all. Interesting (to me anyway) because I have just been offered this by nPower and couldn't work out whether worth it or not. So thanks - will have another look.SeanT said:
This is possibly my boringest comment ever, but have you tried HIVE? It's heating you control with wifi, from your PC, laptop, iPad, smartphone, anywhere in the world - or from your nice warm bed. Amazing.Cyclefree said:Morning all.
The single most important thing I did to reduce my heating bills was to insulate my house properly and eliminate as many draughts as possible. It has made a huge difference both to the bills and to our comfort.
Improving our existing housing stock would do at least as much as price freezing/lower energy bills and what-have-you to reduce what people have to spend and our carbon emissions.
That and telling teenagers who seem to think a light T-shirt is adequate wear for early January to stop moaning and put some clothes on.
Boring, unglamorous, old-fashioned: yes but essential IMO.
https://www.hivehome.com/
It asks you - as you leave the house - do you want to turn your heating off, or down, or set it at 13C for 3 hours? It offers automatic frost protection. It saves £100s.
I just got a hefty rebate from NPower - three figures - because after installing Hive my heating bills nosedived, and I had overpaid.
BTW - just to show how much draughts cost you - and what a difference two mild winters make - my combined monthly gas/electricity payments dropped by nearly four-fifths.
http://www.techradar.com/reviews/gadgets/appliances/british-gas-hive-1266485/review
http://www.flowenergy.uk.com/0 -
I cant imagine many people are waiting breathlessly for the SNP government's oil price projections (well, not for their informative value anyway).Theuniondivvie said:
I don't think alliances made during the referendum campaign extend to the Scottish Greens waiting breathlessly upon pronouncements made by the SNP government.Neil said:
Shouldnt they wait until the Scottish Government revises its projections for oil prices?Theuniondivvie said:
The Scottish Greens are kinda against now. They should probably rejig their website copy though (temporarily).
'The world is also facing the end of the age of cheap oil.
- See more at: http://www.scottishgreens.org.uk/policy/energy/#sthash.jExsRc0R.dpuf'
0 -
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/david-cameron-backs-eric-pickles-letter-muslim-leaders
Am I the only one deeply depressed by the Muslim Council of GB response to Eric Pickles letter this morning. did they actually read it beforw condemning it?0 -
Sheldon is marvellous. Jim Parsons is a human marionette. A wonderful un pc show complete with Raj.CD13 said:
Mr Eagles,
As you say, whatever threads you put up, the 'others' will suspect they're being short changed.
Many Labour people accuse the BBC of being rabidly right wing. We all have our biases, and despite what some people think, even scientists do.
That's why some theories last longer than they should. Incidentally, string theory and M theory, beloved of Stephen Hawking, also seems to be drifting out of fashion. I can't follow the maths but it appears the concept of eleven dimensions and a multiverse may be losing popularity.
Even 'Big Bang' the sitcom has the character Sheldon Cooper wanting to switch from it (and the script writers do receive advice from the theoretical physics experts).
It's lasted thirty years and I thought it might linger as it's virtually impossible to prove it false. I may be an old fuddy-duddy, but I'd call that metaphysics. But it made things interesting for a while - the aim of many scientific theories.0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
