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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another Scottish poll gives a little bit of cheer to LAB but not that much
On what is set to be a very big polling day the first news we have is of a Survation poll in Scotland for the Daily Record. The numbers are above and show that the SNP still has a very big lead over Labour which would cause Miliband’s party to lose a massive number of seats.
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http://www2.tnsglobal.com/e/36112/6-BIF-datatables-16Jan2015-pdf/2yj5xj/135195539
Friday's Populus had both LAB and SNP on 29% each
http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_16-01-2015_BPC.pdf
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/01/scotland-westminster-polling-labours-fightback-continues.html/
Summary: SNP 42 Labour 27. SNP down two points from their peak in mid-December and Labour up 2 from their lowest rating (at the same time). The start of something or just noise?
The contrary view is that the price of oil crashing means Scotland needs the best deal it can from Westminster under the Pledge. When you have Labour and LibDem and Tory signatures on that Pledge, who does Scotland turn to when it comes to holding those three parties' feet to the fire? Step forward the SNP....
I still expect the SNP to do remarkably well in May.
George Osborne’s oil tax strategy throughout the last decade
cannot, in my book, be described as 'excellent'.
Because it's what you want to hear, and claims we should ignore the fatuousness of the SNP's previous claims or ignore their silence on the DEVOMAX settlement they will extract for propping up Ed does not make it so.
The other parties? South of the border, I expect the Tory "don't let Ed wreck it again" to resonate on the economy. But in Scotland, only the SNP has the message to sell.
In May I expect the SNP to lead the slaughter of the Lib Dems and to take a number of Labour seats despite the level of swing required. Despite Mr Murphy's efforts SLAB have moved from Brown and a truly exceptional Scottish performance in 2010 to Miliband, the first Labour leader to be less popular than a tory up here in my lifetime.
How many seats? Well, on this question turns the result of election, at least in terms of who is the largest party. My guess at the moment would be that they will take more than a dozen from Labour and win in the mid 20s overall. Labour too may have one or two offset gains from the Lib Dems but a result like that will hurt.
22nd November:
Delivering the keynote speech at the SSE Hydro event in Glasgow this afternoon (Saturday), Scottish National Party Leader and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced that SNP membership has now reached 92,187
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2014/nov/snp-membership-now-exceeds-extraordinary-90000
Two days ago:
Christina McKelvie, Bill Kidd and Christian Allard are relauching SNP CND at a one-day conference in Glasgow today with a call to their 93,000 fellow members to oppose nuclear weapons in Scotland.
http://www.thecourier.co.uk/news/politics/new-snp-members-urged-to-join-cnd-1.791999
Roll on the Lord Ashcroft constituency polls.
But as the noble Lord points out, a poll is a snapshot, not a prediction, and as the referendum fades, and other issues, like education, health and the economy come to the fore, voter's attention may shift.
Surbiton says Blair is a Tory but I suspect he still voted for him. Ed's problem is that if he is seen as a middle ground man (which he is by some on the left), the irritated lefties may peel off to the Greens as he doesn't have the personal popularity of Blair.
On another topic. Eric Pickles has the first Rotherham report (Louise Casey) but what will he do with it?
If it's anodyne, he may as well release it now.
If it repeats some PC criticism of the Jay Report. If it repeats some of the Jay report regarding PC issues/puts any blame on the race issue causing people to look the other way, he'll want to tread carefully. It's a sensitive time at the moment. So it may be delayed.
And one could also say, a deficit of 20% is cause for extreme anxiety – as the late Frank Carson would say, "It's the way I tell 'em!"
ta.
It is hard to see how the SNP could topple Labour majorities of 15,000+ but I suppose the 2010 numbers are arguably not a good starting point because it represented a high water mark for Scottish Labour which was then hammered the following year in the Holyrood elections. Have the SLAB to Nat movers decided to stay Nat even for Westminster and is this down to the IndyRef. One thing is for sure, the SNP will do its best to deploy its 100,000 members come March and official campaigning starts.
"With membership now standing at more than 93,000 the SNP is the strongest vehicle for progressive change in UK politics [...]"
It's most unlikely that the membership increase (which now puts them ahead of the UK LDs and a fair percentage of the UK Tories) should suddenly slow down at that moment. What is far more likely is that they are simply going by the latest official announcement without pre-empting the next major announcement by SNP HQ.
"The betting markets moved sharply to the Tories last week and this has largely been sustained"
All it needs for the near annihilation of SLAB is for Scots to become convinced that the Tories will win in May.
If that happens, all their hopes will be invested in the SNP, including the hopes of a chunk of "No" voters.
As a side note. I have been warning of the difficulties that the Scottish NHS was facing for the last few years on PB, it is under serious pressure right now. Lets just remember who the former Minister for the Scottish NHS was when it really started to go wrong, step forward Nicola Sturgeon. She also left that post to take charge of the SNP Indy Referendum campaign at Holyrood. We are also now currently at the point later this year whereby the first pupils who have been educated under the new SNP curriculum reforms are going to be applying for University places.
"As a side note. I have been warning of the difficulties that the Scottish NHS was facing for the last few years on PB, it is under serious pressure right now"
While this is true, as it is everywhere in the UK, a recent poll showed the SNP are the most trusted party on the NHS in Scotland.
In spite of all the efforts of BBC Scotland, there is no plurality believing that SLAB or the Tories would do as well, never mind better.
It's just another example of Murphy's slightly tin-eared hoordom: 'You like this, and this? Is this doing it for you baby?'
Muslim Council of Britain quite wrong to complain about letter asking Mosques to do more on anti-radicalisation. A failure of leadership.
This is about Pickles letter sent last night to British Muslim leaders.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-30876360
Of course the Lib Dems in particular are trying to transition this into anti-SNP tactical voting, but it's difficult to do this from scratch.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/cfbddcce-9c12-11e4-a6b6-00144feabdc0.html
A big day in small claims.....
Did the day go better than the UKIP Croydon Carnival?
'Identity crisis
..The problem for Murphy was that during the referendum he was more rabid about the Union than the most rabid of ultra Unionists. And now when he conveniently wants to distance himself from them – as he reinvents himself as more Scottish than the next Scottish Nationalist – our memories are just too long and the distance travelled just too short to forget.
To paraphrase Eminem, would the real Jim Murphy please stand up, please stand up…'
http://tinyurl.com/kvz82ym
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/5-year-old-boy-given-invoice-parents-5002302
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/01/burnhams-bill-for-hollow-hunt-legal-threat/
Still rosy for the SNP.
would have thought it was better a topic for a thread than some boring over analysis of a poll, soon to be contradicted by another poll which will be over analysed
Matt Chorley @MattChorley · 28m28 minutes ago
It's now Monday but still can't stop looking at this picture of LibDems. So many things...
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7pVsdGIIAEhkzH.png
Interesting photograph of Farage there - it's clearly been framed to show the turnout to it's best advantage, but there can't be more than 150 people in it. That's hardly a street rammed to bursting with supporters.
It's a neat study in demographics.
I bet a lot of people on £51K don't think of themselves as rich.
Things have come to a pretty pass when a 20-point SNP lead, 4 months before the GE, is seen as encouraging news for Labour.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10324739/People-on-60000-arent-rich-says-Labours-Rachel-Reeves.html
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Q1JhT0dtUEVRckk/view?usp=sharing
William Hill have now put up prices for quite a lot of Scottish constituencies.
I've put up quite enough posts on Scotland recently and don't intend putting up another in the near future, but I thought others might find this useful.
I think that there are still some bargains here. The SNP are second favourites in the bulk of these seats, in stark contrast to what you would expect from their poll ratings.
You'd have to expect things to change pretty rapidly for there not to be seats worth betting on here.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/jan/19/-sp-thousands-britons-claim-benefits-eu
There are 2 Britons claiming unemployment benefit in Poland. One in Slovenia. And None in Lithuania or Romania
1) SeanT is right, it's better not to post whole articles. Normal articles should have a paragraph (or less) and a link. Articles hidden behind paywalls should sulkily ignored to avoid giving the miserable bastards any traffic.
2) In keeping with our internet traditions the appropriate spelling is Sc0ttish Subs@mple.
However when I pointed out that my work had led me into a study the major hospital A&E figures for Christmas and New Year and they were not on target in Scotland but had indeed been published and were around 10 per cent better than the English equivalent (and 15 per cent better than Wales) I got no answer just an attack on Kevin McKenna's very good article in The Observer pointing out why Tory/Labour hopes that oil would dent the SNP surge would be confounded. I suspect the Mr McKenna a traditional .
For someone burning so much midnight oil this seems rather remiss!
It was peak kipper on Saturday night, & I imagine many supporters had been out partying to celebrate the end of an era.. so probably a few latecomers to the event
SNP 46% 48% 46%
Labour 24% 24% 26%
There might be a smidgen of movement there, but if so it is tiny in comparison to the ground to be made up. And the figures are perfectly consistent with no movement at all.
Jim Murphy = Walter Model?