I see pbc's bizarre anti Oxfam thing has resurfaced for the day.
Perhaps that is because Oxfam have today released a very silly 'study'...
... that has highlighted the number of people living in poverty around the world in a very cheap and effective manner. Which is presumably something that people donating to Oxfam would approve of.
Dont kid yourself that the bizarre anti Oxfam thing has anything to do with this report.
As is known, I'm not an Umunna fan, and he should've handled it better, but Murnaghan was a bit of a dick. Reminds me a bit of when Boulton was chairing a debate last election and put a political point to Brown, which was bang out of order.
Oxfam exists to serve its political agenda at the moment. They need to either clear all of the ex-Labour party members out or the charities commission should reconsider their charitable status. People on the national average wage in the UK are considered part of the global top "1%", are you seriously suggesting that people on the national average wage are in some way wealthy? Oxfam are.
Global top 1% = 70 million people.
Population of the US, Japan and UK combined is 508 million, so if we assume that all of the global richest 1% are either British, American or Japanese [and none German, Swiss, Russian, etc], then they represent the richest 14% of those countries.
Your Maths appears to be erroneous. I'm happy to be corrected, of course, if the error is mine.
That 508m figure includes children, retired people, part time employed and the unemployed. Whittle that figure down and adjust for the average wage how much closer does the figure look.
6+17+10 = 33. But of course, any such source may be managing expectations. Perhaps 17 is the number they are quietly confident of, as things stand?
It seems an oddly precise number. Looking at the Labour-held SNP targets, if they can win 17 of them then there ought to be some others which also might fall.
I see pbc's bizarre anti Oxfam thing has resurfaced for the day.
Yes War on Want and the New Statesman stated there is a problem with OXFAM's links with Labour and the Charities Commission say they have compromised its political neutrality.
I'm not denying that this is happening. The illegal disastrous war in Iraq is still is stiIl a huge drag on Labour. There is also a fear that Labour might alienate ethnic minorities more by appealing to the WWC core more strongly.
Having said that, the ethnic minorities will still disproportionately vote in favour of Labour. I suspect BME turnout will be lowest ever recorded as huge numbers stay at home.
The number of Indian voters identifying with the Labour party has fallen from 77 per cent in 1997 to just 18 per cent in 2014 - a fall of over three quarters, according to the figures from the British Election Study. Pakistani support has fallen from 77 to 57 per cent, a fall of 27 per cent. Meanwhile Carribean support has dropped 14 per cent from 78 to 67 per cent. Support from the African community has dropped by 20 per cent, from 79 to 63 per cent, the research shows.
Against this, one SNP source told me that the party stood to gain a minimum of six from Labour and a maximum of 17, with the former more likely.
The nationalists are more optimistic in the case of the Liberal Democrats, They believe they can win 10 of the Lib Dem’s 11 seats if just a quarter of the party’s 2010 vote swings its way (a result that would leave just Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael standing).
6+17+10 = 33. But of course, any such source may be managing expectations. Perhaps 17 is the number they are quietly confident of, as things stand?
My view (and betting) is that they are either going to take bugger all off Labour bar Dundee West or that they are going to pants them and leave Labour with scraps. The swings necessary are so huge even to start taking 10 seats off Labour that I can't see how the dreaded m word (momentum) couldn't be in play. The SNP need an avalanche against Labour just to get started.
I'm not denying that this is happening. The illegal disastrous war in Iraq is still is stiIl a huge drag on Labour. There is also a fear that Labour might alienate ethnic minorities more by appealing to the WWC core more strongly.
Having said that, the ethnic minorities will still disproportionately vote in favour of Labour. I suspect BME turnout will be lowest ever recorded as huge numbers stay at home.
The number of Indian voters identifying with the Labour party has fallen from 77 per cent in 1997 to just 18 per cent in 2014 - a fall of over three quarters, according to the figures from the British Election Study. Pakistani support has fallen from 77 to 57 per cent, a fall of 27 per cent. Meanwhile Carribean support has dropped 14 per cent from 78 to 67 per cent. Support from the African community has dropped by 20 per cent, from 79 to 63 per cent, the research shows.
I'm not denying that this is happening. The illegal disastrous war in Iraq is still is stiIl a huge drag on Labour. There is also a fear that Labour might alienate ethnic minorities more by appealing to the WWC core more strongly.
Having said that, the ethnic minorities will still disproportionately vote in favour of Labour. I suspect BME turnout will be lowest ever recorded as huge numbers stay at home.
The number of Indian voters identifying with the Labour party has fallen from 77 per cent in 1997 to just 18 per cent in 2014 - a fall of over three quarters, according to the figures from the British Election Study. Pakistani support has fallen from 77 to 57 per cent, a fall of 27 per cent. Meanwhile Carribean support has dropped 14 per cent from 78 to 67 per cent. Support from the African community has dropped by 20 per cent, from 79 to 63 per cent, the research shows.
That maths isn't much of a success story either!
That's what happens when your country drops from 4th to 26th in Maths over the last 30 years!
The maths is actually fine, it says fall of, not fall by.
18 is 23% of 77 etc (hence fall of over three quarters)
I have decided, if Ashcroft's poll has the Tories ahead, it will be a James Blunt themed nighthawks, if it is a Labour lead, it will be a New Order themed nighthawks, if it is a tie or someone else is ahead then it will be a Kylie themed nighthawks.
Against this, one SNP source told me that the party stood to gain a minimum of six from Labour and a maximum of 17, with the former more likely.
The nationalists are more optimistic in the case of the Liberal Democrats, They believe they can win 10 of the Lib Dem’s 11 seats if just a quarter of the party’s 2010 vote swings its way (a result that would leave just Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael standing).
6+17+10 = 33. But of course, any such source may be managing expectations. Perhaps 17 is the number they are quietly confident of, as things stand?
They think they are going to defeat Charles Kennedy? Something I speculatively backed a few weeks ago.
Somebody said to me, that he's not in a good place, because he didn't take a central role in the Indyref campaign, then he's hardly likely to be able to rouse himself for a general election campaign.
I'm not denying that this is happening. The illegal disastrous war in Iraq is still is stiIl a huge drag on Labour. There is also a fear that Labour might alienate ethnic minorities more by appealing to the WWC core more strongly.
Having said that, the ethnic minorities will still disproportionately vote in favour of Labour. I suspect BME turnout will be lowest ever recorded as huge numbers stay at home.
The number of Indian voters identifying with the Labour party has fallen from 77 per cent in 1997 to just 18 per cent in 2014 - a fall of over three quarters, according to the figures from the British Election Study. Pakistani support has fallen from 77 to 57 per cent, a fall of 27 per cent. Meanwhile Carribean support has dropped 14 per cent from 78 to 67 per cent. Support from the African community has dropped by 20 per cent, from 79 to 63 per cent, the research shows.
That maths isn't much of a success story either!
That's what happens when your country drops from 4th to 26th in Maths over the last 30 years!
The maths is actually fine, it says fall of, not fall by.
18 is 23% of 77 etc (hence fall of over three quarters)
I have decided, if Ashcroft's poll has the Tories ahead, it will be a James Blunt themed nighthawks, if it is a Labour lead, it will be a New Order themed nighthawks, if it is a tie or someone else is ahead then it will be a Kylie themed nighthawks.
If KIPPERs are in the lead, can we not have a thread based on this?
I see pbc's bizarre anti Oxfam thing has resurfaced for the day.
Perhaps that is because Oxfam have today released a very silly 'study'...
... that has highlighted the number of people living in poverty around the world in a very cheap and effective manner. Which is presumably something that people donating to Oxfam would approve of.
Dont kid yourself that the bizarre anti Oxfam thing has anything to do with this report.
You think they are donating towards the eradication of numeracy from the world?
How bizarre, in your view, is the Charity Commission's anti-Oxfam thing?
I think you have a mild case of Child Poverty Action Group Syndrome, the delusion that organisations with nice names are nice, so there.
Against this, one SNP source told me that the party stood to gain a minimum of six from Labour and a maximum of 17, with the former more likely.
The nationalists are more optimistic in the case of the Liberal Democrats, They believe they can win 10 of the Lib Dem’s 11 seats if just a quarter of the party’s 2010 vote swings its way (a result that would leave just Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael standing).
6+17+10 = 33. But of course, any such source may be managing expectations. Perhaps 17 is the number they are quietly confident of, as things stand?
They think they are going to defeat Charles Kennedy? Something I speculatively backed a few weeks ago.
Somebody said to me, that he's not in a good place, because he didn't take a central role in the Indyref campaign, then he's hardly likely to be able to rouse himself for a general election campaign.
Other way round, I'd say. Not fronting 'Keep Scotland under the Tories' won't have done him any harm. However, whether this is enough to outweigh the systemic shift in LD vote is another matter.
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK general election :
SNP 42.9% (+1.6) Labour 28.0% (-0.7) Conservatives 15.0% (-0.8) UKIP 5.4% (-0.8) Liberal Democrats 5.0% (+1.4)
Labour 42.0% Liberal Democrat 18.9% SNP 6 19.9% Conservative 16.7%
Lab -14%; LD -13.9%... SNP+23%
That is an 18.5% swing, that means that nothing with a majority of less than 20,000 I think is safe from the SNP. And maybe more than that in Glasgow... 10,000 majorities will be overturned from both Lab and Lib Dem methinks.
Kirkcaldy won't go SNP - I'll predict that much ^_~
His music/lyrics are very interesting. Much scorn missing the point. Only saw it recently. I find his falsetto style odd but it's tragic in context. Well worth paying attention. IIRC he commanded 30k troops. No luvvies.
Mr. Eagles, James Blunt always came across as a properly nice chap on his two Top Gear appearances.
Mr. Crosby, that seems a weird thing to storm off over.
Twitter comebacks aside, I do find his songs pretty horrid (those I've heard). The first time I listened to 'You're Beautiful' I literally predicted each line him - 'I saw your face' me -'in a crowded place' him 'in a crowded place' and so on through the entire song, that was how relentlessly cliched it was.
I see pbc's bizarre anti Oxfam thing has resurfaced for the day.
Perhaps that is because Oxfam have today released a very silly 'study'...
... that has highlighted the number of people living in poverty around the world in a very cheap and effective manner. Which is presumably something that people donating to Oxfam would approve of.
Dont kid yourself that the bizarre anti Oxfam thing has anything to do with this report.
You think they are donating towards the eradication of numeracy from the world?
I think they couldnt care less about the methodology underpinning a projection in a report that results in a lot of attention for the Charity's agenda.
MD..If so called top politicians are sideswiped by some d*ckhead reporter ..then how and why do they consider themselves able to ask for our votes so that they can go out there in the world to stand up for the country.
There are 2 Britons claiming unemployment benefit in Poland. One in Slovenia. And None in Lithuania or Romania
According to the statistics there are still many more EU claimants in the UK, than UK claimants in the rest of the EU, though the phrase 'Unemployed Britons in richer EU states outnumber jobless from those countries in UK', is an interesting spin.
Same facts.. different story...
"More than twice as many European Union immigrants are claiming unemployment benefits in Britain than vice versa, new figures have revealed.
Almost 65,000 EU nationals are getting Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) in the UK compared to around 30,000 Britons claiming unemployment benefits elsewhere in the EU"
That's mainly because we export old people who do not work, but do use many other public services, such as health. It's a big issue in Spain, for example.
You think more British immigrants use foreign health systems than vice versa?
First two words show that you have not met lickle pup: Oxymoron.... Leave him licking his bone....
Mr. Eagles, more money than sense. And you spend it willingly. That's not very Yorkshire [for those wondering, I require a small number of hats to keep the rain off my glasses when perambulating with the hound].
Mr. Socrates, Browne often seems like a sensible chap.
It will be interesting to see whether Cameron's letter today to the Mosques proves to be a positive, negative or neutral factor in terms of his party's poll ratings.
The body of AMIA special prosecutor Alberto Nisman was found in the bathroom of his apartment in the Buenos Aires City neighbourhood of Puerto Madero late on Sunday. Nisman, who was expected to take part in a closed-door hearing in Congress today to reveal the details of explosive allegations that involved President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Foreign Minister Héctor Timerman, was found minutes before midnight.
Mr. Eagles, more money than sense. And you spend it willingly. That's not very Yorkshire [for those wondering, I require a small number of hats to keep the rain off my glasses when perambulating with the hound].
Mr. Socrates, Browne often seems like a sensible chap.
I suppose an umbrella would be too extravagant - it not being necessary to keep the rain from your shoulders?
Mr. Eagles, more money than sense. And you spend it willingly. That's not very Yorkshire [for those wondering, I require a small number of hats to keep the rain off my glasses when perambulating with the hound].
Mr. Socrates, Browne often seems like a sensible chap.
Just for the record, I have never paid £12.95 for a fair trade latte.
That said, I'm tempted to try Kopi Luwak coffee, which costs around $800 a kilo.
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK That is an 18.5% swing, that means that nothing with a majority of less than 20,000 I think is safe from the SNP. And maybe more than that in Glasgow... 10,000 majorities will be overturned from both Lab and Lib Dem methinks.
Kirkcaldy won't go SNP - I'll predict that much ^_~
As well as turnout in a generally disillusioned electorate that I mentioned below, the other unknown is the amount of tactical voting. The SNP are second just about everywhere. This disadvantage for them under FPTP becomes a huge advantage at a marginally higher voter share. But it means they will win seats on vote shares in the thirties in seats that are three or possibly four way marginals. It particularly applies to places like Edinburgh, which has never been an SNP city but has had decent Conservative and Liberal turnouts in the past. It is certainly possible for all seats in Edinburgh to go SNP, but just as it's possible for the SNP to win on a small voter share, any tactical voting will be relatively effective due to the same kind of gearing. There are quite a lot of Scots who really HATE the SNP now, so there may be anti-SNP tactical voting: probably Conservatives and Lib Dems who lend their vote to Labour to keep the SNP out.
The SNP will make considerable gains, but not sure if it will be the wipeout.
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK That is an 18.5% swing, that means that nothing with a majority of less than 20,000 I think is safe from the SNP. And maybe more than that in Glasgow... 10,000 majorities will be overturned from both Lab and Lib Dem methinks.
Kirkcaldy won't go SNP - I'll predict that much ^_~
As well as turnout in a generally disillusioned electorate that I mentioned below, the other unknown is the amount of tactical voting. The SNP are second just about everywhere. This disadvantage for them under FPTP becomes a huge advantage at a marginally higher voter share. But it means they will win seats on vote shares in the thirties in seats that are three or possibly four way marginals. It particularly applies to places like Edinburgh, which has never been an SNP city but has had decent Conservative and Liberal turnouts in the past. It is certainly possible for all seats in Edinburgh to go SNP, but just as it's possible for the SNP to win on a small voter share, any tactical voting will be relatively effective due to the same kind of gearing. There are quite a lot of Scots who really HATE the SNP now, so there may be anti-SNP tactical voting: probably Conservatives and Lib Dems who lend their vote to Labour to keep the SNP out.
The SNP will make considerable gains, but not sure if it will be the wipeout.
Or it could be carnage - like the Scots elections...
Mr. Eagles, more money than sense. And you spend it willingly. That's not very Yorkshire [for those wondering, I require a small number of hats to keep the rain off my glasses when perambulating with the hound].
Mr. Socrates, Browne often seems like a sensible chap.
Why plural - do you have a small number of heads?
I simply pop the whippet on top of my head until the shower passes.
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK That is an 18.5% swing, that means that nothing with a majority of less than 20,000 I think is safe from the SNP. And maybe more than that in Glasgow... 10,000 majorities will be overturned from both Lab and Lib Dem methinks.
Kirkcaldy won't go SNP - I'll predict that much ^_~
As well as turnout in a generally disillusioned electorate that I mentioned below, the other unknown is the amount of tactical voting. The SNP are second just about everywhere. This disadvantage for them under FPTP becomes a huge advantage at a marginally higher voter share. But it means they will win seats on vote shares in the thirties in seats that are three or possibly four way marginals. It particularly applies to places like Edinburgh, which has never been an SNP city but has had decent Conservative and Liberal turnouts in the past. It is certainly possible for all seats in Edinburgh to go SNP, but just as it's possible for the SNP to win on a small voter share, any tactical voting will be relatively effective due to the same kind of gearing. There are quite a lot of Scots who really HATE the SNP now, so there may be anti-SNP tactical voting: probably Conservatives and Lib Dems who lend their vote to Labour to keep the SNP out.
The SNP will make considerable gains, but not sure if it will be the wipeout.
Aberdeenshire, West and Kincardine was a constituency I was racking my brains over earlier, could some of those LD & Lab voters vote tactically Conservative- might the Lib Dems hold, could it be a Tory gain...
I have no idea on that one. Livingston looked like a fairly simple Lab-SNP battle to my eyes at any rate (With ONLY a 11,000 Lab-SNP majority to overcome) so I went for that one.
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK That is an 18.5% swing, that means that nothing with a majority of less than 20,000 I think is safe from the SNP. And maybe more than that in Glasgow... 10,000 majorities will be overturned from both Lab and Lib Dem methinks.
Kirkcaldy won't go SNP - I'll predict that much ^_~
As well as turnout in a generally disillusioned electorate that I mentioned below, the other unknown is the amount of tactical voting. The SNP are second just about everywhere. This disadvantage for them under FPTP becomes a huge advantage at a marginally higher voter share. But it means they will win seats on vote shares in the thirties in seats that are three or possibly four way marginals. It particularly applies to places like Edinburgh, which has never been an SNP city but has had decent Conservative and Liberal turnouts in the past. It is certainly possible for all seats in Edinburgh to go SNP, but just as it's possible for the SNP to win on a small voter share, any tactical voting will be relatively effective due to the same kind of gearing. There are quite a lot of Scots who really HATE the SNP now, so there may be anti-SNP tactical voting: probably Conservatives and Lib Dems who lend their vote to Labour to keep the SNP out.
The SNP will make considerable gains, but not sure if it will be the wipeout.
Comes down to who do Scottish Tories hate the most - Milliband or the SNP? I think as many of them will vote tactically each way, depending on who they hate the most.
I see pbc's bizarre anti Oxfam thing has resurfaced for the day.
Perhaps that is because Oxfam have today released a very silly 'study'.
To show you how silly it is: Suppose we have one couple who own 99% of the world's wealth and 99 couples who own 1% of the word's wealth.
That couple have two children who inherit everything. (Probably only 1 of course). The poor couples have 2.54 children each. (probably much more, poorer families need more children)
Next generation we have 127 couples - 1 of which owns the 99%. But now the percentage has reduced from '1% owning 99%' to 'three quarters of 1% now own 99%'.
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK That is an 18.5% swing, that means that nothing with a majority of less than 20,000 I think is safe from the SNP. And maybe more than that in Glasgow... 10,000 majorities will be overturned from both Lab and Lib Dem methinks.
Kirkcaldy won't go SNP - I'll predict that much ^_~
As well as turnout in a generally disillusioned electorate that I mentioned below, the other unknown is the amount of tactical voting. The SNP are second just about everywhere. This disadvantage for them under FPTP becomes a huge advantage at a marginally higher voter share. But it means they will win seats on vote shares in the thirties in seats that are three or possibly four way marginals. It particularly applies to places like Edinburgh, which has never been an SNP city but has had decent Conservative and Liberal turnouts in the past. It is certainly possible for all seats in Edinburgh to go SNP, but just as it's possible for the SNP to win on a small voter share, any tactical voting will be relatively effective due to the same kind of gearing. There are quite a lot of Scots who really HATE the SNP now, so there may be anti-SNP tactical voting: probably Conservatives and Lib Dems who lend their vote to Labour to keep the SNP out.
The SNP will make considerable gains, but not sure if it will be the wipeout.
Comes down to who do Scottish Tories hate the most - Milliband or the SNP? I think as many of them will vote tactically each way, depending on who they hate the most.
Clearly Miliband I would think, if they get him elected he will do a deal with Ms Sturgeon and they will get the SNP anyway. If they help get the SNP in, they might get a Tory or Tory-led government. Best to save the hatred of the SNP for 2016.
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK That is an 18.5% swing, that means that nothing with a majority of less than 20,000 I think is safe from the SNP. And maybe more than that in Glasgow... 10,000 majorities will be overturned from both Lab and Lib Dem methinks.
Kirkcaldy won't go SNP - I'll predict that much ^_~
As well as turnout in a generally disillusioned electorate that I mentioned below, the other unknown is the amount of tactical voting. The SNP are second just about everywhere. This disadvantage for them under FPTP becomes a huge advantage at a marginally higher voter share. But it means they will win seats on vote shares in the thirties in seats that are three or possibly four way marginals. It particularly applies to places like Edinburgh, which has never been an SNP city but has had decent Conservative and Liberal turnouts in the past. It is certainly possible for all seats in Edinburgh to go SNP, but just as it's possible for the SNP to win on a small voter share, any tactical voting will be relatively effective due to the same kind of gearing. There are quite a lot of Scots who really HATE the SNP now, so there may be anti-SNP tactical voting: probably Conservatives and Lib Dems who lend their vote to Labour to keep the SNP out.
The SNP will make considerable gains, but not sure if it will be the wipeout.
I don't know how much tactical voting there was back in 1910, but it's interesting to see that the Irish Parliamentary Party took 73 out of 103 seats in the December 1910 election on 43.6% of the vote within Ireland.
Again, in the 1918 election Sinn Fein took 73 out of 105 seats on 46.9% of the vote.
And in Scotland in 2010, Labour won 41 of 59 seats on 42.0% of the vote.
It looks like it is pretty hard to receive ~40-45% of the vote and not win something like two-thirds or three-quarters of the seats. That's FPTP. Tactical voting is difficult, because the prospective tactical voter can be misled by the result last time, when underlying support has shifted so much, into casting an ineffective tactical vote.
Opinium Research @OpiniumResearch · 6m6 minutes ago Even half (48%) of Conservatives seem happy to empty chair David Cameron #LeadersDebates http://bit.ly/1xnV3PG
I see pbc's bizarre anti Oxfam thing has resurfaced for the day.
Perhaps that is because Oxfam have today released a very silly 'study'.
To show you how silly it is: Suppose we have one couple who own 99% of the world's wealth and 99 couples who own 1% of the word's wealth.
That couple have two children who inherit everything. (Probably only 1 of course). The poor couples have 2.54 children each. (probably much more, poorer families need more children)
Next generation we have 127 couples - 1 of which owns the 99%. But now the percentage has reduced from '1% owning 99%' to 'three quarters of 1% now own 99%'.
Comes down to who do Scottish Tories hate the most - Milliband or the SNP? I think as many of them will vote tactically each way, depending on who they hate the most.
I would agree with that. Pulpstar mentioned Livingston, which is an interesting example. In the main it's a two way SNP/Labour fight. Sizeable number of Lib Dems last time who we assume are looking for a new home. Will it be Labour or SNP? The final piece in the jigsaw is that Livingston is in the Edinburgh catchment area and therefore No territory. Really hard to call.
It looks like it is pretty hard to receive ~40-45% of the vote and not win something like two-thirds or three-quarters of the seats. That's FPTP. Tactical voting is difficult, because the prospective tactical voter can be misled by the result last time, when underlying support has shifted so much, into casting an ineffective tactical vote.
The exception to this is, of course, when there are only two parties.
Which is why I think the Conservatives may have missed a trick by not dissolving the Scottish branch of their party and relaunching the Unionist Party [of Scotland]. The only voting block larger than the SNPs "45%" is the Unionist "55%"...
Mr. Me, not an umbrella fan. Plus, it's often windy, and there's a fair amount of low branches around here. And, of course, extravagance must be avoided.
Mr. Artist, reminds me of an old online psych test, where you have five animals in the desert and have to abandon them one by one. It was meant to indicate what values you consider most important.
Mr. X, in case one gets damaged or utterly soaked (which has happened before). An excellent hat (2003 Schumacher-Ferrari baseball cap, which was a gift) of mine is starting to come apart. Not sure if it'll need replacing, but I fear it might.
Oxfam's executive director Winnie Byanyima is fronting this stuff.
Not sure how common the name is, but - from 2007 -
Kampala — THE United Nations Development Programme is investigating circumstances under which Ms Winnie Byanyima accessed UN benefits for her sister's child. Ms Byanyima, the director of the UNDP gender team based in New York City, is alleged to have declared her sister Edith's son, Tau Katungi, as her own child. Consequently, UNDP pays Katungi's school fees in the knowledge that he is the son of Ms Byanyima.
Scottish voting intentions for the May 2015 UK That is an 18.5% swing, that means that nothing with a majority of less than 20,000 I think is safe from the SNP. And maybe more than that in Glasgow... 10,000 majorities will be overturned from both Lab and Lib Dem methinks.
Kirkcaldy won't go SNP - I'll predict that much ^_~
As well as turnout in a generally disillusioned electorate that I mentioned below, the other unknown is the amount of tactical voting. The SNP are second just about everywhere. This disadvantage for them under FPTP becomes a huge advantage at a marginally higher voter share. But it means they will win seats on vote shares in the thirties in seats that are three or possibly four way marginals. It particularly applies to places like Edinburgh, which has never been an SNP city but has had decent Conservative and Liberal turnouts in the past. It is certainly possible for all seats in Edinburgh to go SNP, but just as it's possible for the SNP to win on a small voter share, any tactical voting will be relatively effective due to the same kind of gearing. There are quite a lot of Scots who really HATE the SNP now, so there may be anti-SNP tactical voting: probably Conservatives and Lib Dems who lend their vote to Labour to keep the SNP out.
The SNP will make considerable gains, but not sure if it will be the wipeout.
I don't know how much tactical voting there was back in 1910, but it's interesting to see that the Irish Parliamentary Party took 73 out of 103 seats in the December 1910 election on 43.6% of the vote within Ireland.
Again, in the 1918 election Sinn Fein took 73 out of 105 seats on 46.9% of the vote.
And in Scotland in 2010, Labour won 41 of 59 seats on 42.0% of the vote.
It looks like it is pretty hard to receive ~40-45% of the vote and not win something like two-thirds or three-quarters of the seats. That's FPTP. Tactical voting is difficult, because the prospective tactical voter can be misled by the result last time, when underlying support has shifted so much, into casting an ineffective tactical vote.
The GE in Ireland in 1918 is a difficult one to draw too many conclusions from because many seats were uncontested which throws the vote share figures out.
If the Greens actually polled 11% in May, they must stand a fair chance of taking Norwich South and Bristol West.
But as the Spartans would say, If.
Indeed, the Greens are largely the young persons NOTA/DK/DNV in the same way the Kippers are for the Victor Meldrew Tendency, a large chunk of both groups will stay on the sofa on polling day, especially if the weather is bad.
Against this, one SNP source told me that the party stood to gain a minimum of six from Labour and a maximum of 17, with the former more likely.
The nationalists are more optimistic in the case of the Liberal Democrats, They believe they can win 10 of the Lib Dem’s 11 seats if just a quarter of the party’s 2010 vote swings its way (a result that would leave just Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael standing).
in the same way as an innocent inmate of Guantanamo will not be very happy to be told that 'at least you havent been blown up by a daisy cutter', I can see this current angle of telling people in the UK that 'yes, I know that a feral few psychopaths are doing incredibly well at your expense as your living standards fdrop as low as the chance of another tory majority ever again, but be damn thankful you arent one of those foreign brown people we have really shafted' going down rather poorly. Still a great value spot for PB Tory based lunatic entertainment,
It looks like it is pretty hard to receive ~40-45% of the vote and not win something like two-thirds or three-quarters of the seats. That's FPTP. Tactical voting is difficult, because the prospective tactical voter can be misled by the result last time, when underlying support has shifted so much, into casting an ineffective tactical vote.
The exception to this is, of course, when there are only two parties.
Which is why I think the Conservatives may have missed a trick by not dissolving the Scottish branch of their party and relaunching the Unionist Party [of Scotland]. The only voting block larger than the SNPs "45%" is the Unionist "55%"...
Comments
Dont kid yourself that the bizarre anti Oxfam thing has anything to do with this report.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/30881741
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11294984/Labours-crucial-ethnic-minority-vote-set-to-collapse.html
That's what happens when your country drops from 4th to 26th in Maths over the last 30 years!
The maths is actually fine, it says fall of, not fall by.
18 is 23% of 77 etc (hence fall of over three quarters)
Somebody said to me, that he's not in a good place, because he didn't take a central role in the Indyref campaign, then he's hardly likely to be able to rouse himself for a general election campaign.
The maths is actually fine, it says fall of, not fall by.
18 is 23% of 77 etc (hence fall of over three quarters)
Yes I realised and edited sorry!
Terrible way of expressing it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10dmK7O-KSY
It caused me to choke on my £12.95 latte.
How bizarre, in your view, is the Charity Commission's anti-Oxfam thing?
I think you have a mild case of Child Poverty Action Group Syndrome, the delusion that organisations with nice names are nice, so there.
Speaking of which, if I ever acquire this 'money' I have heard so much about I may purchase a flat cap.
SNP 42.9% (+1.6)
Labour 28.0% (-0.7)
Conservatives 15.0% (-0.8)
UKIP 5.4% (-0.8)
Liberal Democrats 5.0% (+1.4)
Labour 42.0%
Liberal Democrat 18.9%
SNP 6 19.9%
Conservative 16.7%
Lab -14%; LD -13.9%...
SNP+23%
That is an 18.5% swing, that means that nothing with a majority of less than 20,000 I think is safe from the SNP. And maybe more than that in Glasgow... 10,000 majorities will be overturned from both Lab and Lib Dem methinks.
Kirkcaldy won't go SNP - I'll predict that much ^_~
I would wouldnt I but I'll take my judgement of Oxfam over those who dont think it is deserving of charitable status.
Message with yours.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10311469/Britain-needs-national-debate-about-banning-Muslim-girls-from-wearing-veils-in-public.html
Seems fair enough. It's one thing for adult women to cover up their faces, but forcing young girls to do it is just brainwashing.
:tumbleweed:
I had a look again the other day, and they had a sale on, so it was half what I paid for it.
Just bruising.
SNP 42.9%
Labour 28.0%
Conservatives 15.0%
UKIP 5.4%
Liberal Democrats 5.0%
Mr. Socrates, Browne often seems like a sensible chap.
AMIA Special Prosecutor Alberto Nisman found dead in his Puerto Madero home
http://buenosairesherald.com/article/179900/amia-special-prosecutor-alberto-nisman-found-dead-in-his-puerto-madero-home
The body of AMIA special prosecutor Alberto Nisman was found in the bathroom of his apartment in the Buenos Aires City neighbourhood of Puerto Madero late on Sunday.
Nisman, who was expected to take part in a closed-door hearing in Congress today to reveal the details of explosive allegations that involved President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and Foreign Minister Héctor Timerman, was found minutes before midnight.
That said, I'm tempted to try Kopi Luwak coffee, which costs around $800 a kilo.
https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/557199925583167488
(Btw, I have one too, especially for my forays North)
And Mr Oxfam US is paid $500K?Miliband-Rabbit
Clegg-Snake
Farage-Donkey
http://order-order.com/2014/01/24/exc-gordon-brown-office-has-10000-a-week-expenses-raises-over-3-million-gives-less-than-1-million-to-charity/
My guess is a hamster.
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft
Calling all Greens. See the Ashcroft National Poll at 4pm.... #libdemsmayturngreen
One of my Yorkshire colleagues has a famous phrase.
It's ... "How much!"
Usually reserved for when someone wants to charge him more than £2.80 a pint.
The SNP will make considerable gains, but not sure if it will be the wipeout.
http://www.hugoboss.com/uk/flat-cap-'sentorio'-in-wool/hbeu50271475.html
I simply pop the whippet on top of my head until the shower passes.
I have no idea on that one. Livingston looked like a fairly simple Lab-SNP battle to my eyes at any rate (With ONLY a 11,000 Lab-SNP majority to overcome) so I went for that one.
Edit: Had another think, it's going SNP.
That couple have two children who inherit everything. (Probably only 1 of course). The poor couples have 2.54 children each. (probably much more, poorer families need more children)
Next generation we have 127 couples - 1 of which owns the 99%. But now the percentage has reduced from '1% owning 99%' to 'three quarters of 1% now own 99%'.
Again, in the 1918 election Sinn Fein took 73 out of 105 seats on 46.9% of the vote.
And in Scotland in 2010, Labour won 41 of 59 seats on 42.0% of the vote.
It looks like it is pretty hard to receive ~40-45% of the vote and not win something like two-thirds or three-quarters of the seats. That's FPTP. Tactical voting is difficult, because the prospective tactical voter can be misled by the result last time, when underlying support has shifted so much, into casting an ineffective tactical vote.
Even half (48%) of Conservatives seem happy to empty chair David Cameron
#LeadersDebates
http://bit.ly/1xnV3PG
Con 29 (-5) Labour 28 (nc) LD 9 (+1) UKIP 15 (-1) Greens 11 (+3)
Neil, the Greens have hit double figures, for what I think is the first time ever.
The early discount offer is still available to you.
Also makes it inevitable the Greens will be in third place with Ipsos-Mori next month.
God bless the Quasi fascist, happiness destroying, economically illiterate Greens.
Last weeks poll was correct, this is an outlier!
Which is why I think the Conservatives may have missed a trick by not dissolving the Scottish branch of their party and relaunching the Unionist Party [of Scotland]. The only voting block larger than the SNPs "45%" is the Unionist "55%"...
Mr. Artist, reminds me of an old online psych test, where you have five animals in the desert and have to abandon them one by one. It was meant to indicate what values you consider most important.
Mr. X, in case one gets damaged or utterly soaked (which has happened before). An excellent hat (2003 Schumacher-Ferrari baseball cap, which was a gift) of mine is starting to come apart. Not sure if it'll need replacing, but I fear it might.
But as the Spartans would say, If.
Not sure how common the name is, but - from 2007 -
Kampala — THE United Nations Development Programme is investigating circumstances under which Ms Winnie Byanyima accessed UN benefits for her sister's child. Ms Byanyima, the director of the UNDP gender team based in New York City, is alleged to have declared her sister Edith's son, Tau Katungi, as her own child. Consequently, UNDP pays Katungi's school fees in the knowledge that he is the son of Ms Byanyima.
http://allafrica.com/stories/200709141084.html
As the world's richest 1% plainly just don't have enough to get by on, things are even worse than we thought.
It *could* happen. It'd be interesting if it did.
Still a great value spot for PB Tory based lunatic entertainment,