What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
Too close to call for me
I think that Reform will probably sneak it - but there are enough question marks that I'd be betting on Lab at current prices if forced to choose where to put my money.
It is a must win for the Fukkers if they have any pretensions of forming a government. They need it for the validation of the project, diminishment of the Lowe/Habib Mensheviks and the Big Mo.
Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.
"This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness. Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."
I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.
Cooling on Jenrick so leaving Kemi in place until one of the myriad kings across the water can win a by-election. Jacob Rees-Mogg might be next up, God help them.
Could JRM really return be leader? Maybe, I suppose, given the intellectual phthsis that has rotted the tory party since 2016.
If Farage fails to beat Labour again at the next general election and Kemi also loses and resigns then the Tories could do worse than JRM if they want to reunite the right. JRM is one of the few Tories most Reform voters could vote for. They might leak a few more to the LDs and he is unlikely to become PM but you never know, everyone wrote off Corbyn before 2017 but he united the left behind him and got a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs
JRM? You mean Sir Jacob Rees Mogg?
"One of the few Tories most Reform voters could vote for."
In today's byelection Reform win even if they lose. It will be close. So even a 2nd place to Labour having slashed that huge majority to a thousand or two demonstrates how big a threat they are everywhere.
In a major procurement move, at least one NATO country is reportedly attempting to acquire Ukraine's highly successful Delta battlefield management system.
If there can be a lasting peace deal, I can see a load of Ukrainian tech start-ups get a boat load of funding. e.g. drones are so useful for so many tasks.
I'm sure there is a lot of Ukrainian innovation but I also suspect that a lot of the new Ukrainian weapons originate elsewhere and in effect are operated undercover.
You can still learn a lot by spending a few years running other people's kit, taking it apart to fix things, noticing the flaws, and coming up with work arounds. Instinctive stuff that's hard to share and hard to feed back up the tree.
Regarding Robert's substack post on the last thread, it's not entirely accurate.
The intertia in large spinning masses which generate electricity means they resist instantaneous changes in generating frequency, as it makes it simply impossible for their speed of rotation (which determines the frequency at which they generate AC power) to change rapidly.
It doesn't mean they release extra power.
The only reason we need a constant frequency (or AC power at all) is all the legacy kit of the last century's electrical generation. Mismatched frequencies will damage it.
With modern power inverters, if you were starting from scratch, you could build a new grid which was entirely DC. Too much old stuff out there designed for AC, though.
Hello Nikola Tesla. How do you feel about what Elon Musk has done to your name?
Stat for context: "There are 20 transgender women registered to play amateur football in England among the millions who play at that level."
In Scotland there were none.
That can support either of the views. It is a very small issue that does not deserve the coverage and debate, or that it is a very small issue that can be managed case by case and is not worth instituting a "national ban".
It’s very simple. Able-bodied athletes can’t identify as disabled for sports. Men shouldn’t be able to identify as women.
The biggest impact will be on GOP voters who are much more anti vax .
The question is why are GOP voters are much more anti-vax? There's no inherent reason why conservatism should be associated with anti-vax. Rather, Republican voters have been pulled into conspiracy theories and conspiracy theories seem to come together.
In today's byelection Reform win even if they lose. It will be close. So even a 2nd place to Labour having slashed that huge majority to a thousand or two demonstrates how big a threat they are everywhere.
If they win? Well...
Reform have to win . Coming second would be an embarrassment . Unless Lib Dem’s and Greens vote tactically to stop Reform then I can’t see Labour holding on.
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
I am confident today is about ganging up on Reform, just like July 4th last year was. Conservatives against Reform gives Labour Runcorn. And, considering what number of votes Reform will get across the picture, not fair share mayors or councillors either.
Labour and Conservatives won’t get their vote out, will poll low, and that will be the headlines media will run with.
But for Reform or Greens to claim they are building all the time to something special will be classic fools gold. The era of politics before this one had libs/libdems as NOTA having good times going up a few lines on snakes and ladders board, then always the snake that takes them back to square one. In the case of Reform, with 70% of voters motivated to come out simply to vote against you, you’re going nowhere. You have a glass ceiling.
There may be a ganging up against Reform, especially as we get to a General Election and if Farage is seriously challenging for No 10. But not now. For many they seem a harmless protest vote and an opportunity to kick the establishment by the disaffected.
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
Too close to call for me
I think that Reform will probably sneak it - but there are enough question marks that I'd be betting on Lab at current prices if forced to choose where to put my money.
It is a must win for the Fukkers if they have any pretensions of forming a government. They need it for the validation of the project, diminishment of the Lowe/Habib Mensheviks and the Big Mo.
Yes, I largely agree
They’ve built up major momentum BUT they’ve hit obstacles too. The Lowe dispute was bad, their links to Trump are a potential minefield
They really need a win to keep up that sense of inevitability as they rise. A defeat won’t be fatal, it will be a major dent
NB: Farage has been to Runcorn several times these last weeks; Starmer not once
Those ward-level projections for Politics UK are very interesting.
The Conservatives are in the most trouble. They're getting hit by the Lib Dems in posh heartland areas, and by Reform in poorer heartland areas. The Lib Dems have a clear core vote of posh people. Reform are winning working, and lower-middle class people outside Core Cities. Labour have university seats, seats with lots of professional public sector workers, and areas with big BAME populations. It's honestly hard to see what section of the population the Conservatives are now appealing to. The 2019-24 government's approach, of focusing their appeal on retired people who favour high levels of immigration, has killed off their base.
Labour are also in trouble. Reform are sweeping through their old heartlands (Durham, industrial Northumberland, Doncaster, Burnley, the Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, ex-mining, industrial areas). That in turn, suggests they'll sweep through South Wales, Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, next year. Labour are saved by their new heartlands (see above). Reform are simply sweeping up more support than UKIP ever did, and since nothing succeeds like success, they are coming over as a lot more professional.
IMHO, Reform will take Runcorn fairly easily. People kick the government in by-elections.
Thanks. Two questions (highlighted above):
1 - Did you actually mean -"retired people who favour high levels of immigration". I have them as having pivoted to reactionaries under Sunak.
2 - I see Greater Manchester as having become more like London in recent years - resurgence and media / tech industries and so on. So I see it as less fruitful ground for RefUK than say Liverpool or Oldham.
To be fair to Rishi he did raise the visa required minimum wage for migrants to £38k and he also reduced the ability of dependents to be brought in too. Indeed Rishi was certainly tougher on immigration than Boris and Truss ironically as well as Cameron and whereas May had tough on immigration rhetoric only Rishi really put it into action as PM
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
Too close to call for me
Reform for me.
Labour should have played the Trump card. Few Reform voters have realised yet the extent to which their Party is sponsored by the White House. Surprised the Tories didn't make more of this either.
Doing the ‘Trump poisons everything he touches’ thing while simultaneously pushing the special relationship trade deal would make their pointy heads explode. Only someone like Blair could successfully pull off that level of duplicity.
"...The paradigms people use to interpret the world change over time: one day the sun orbits the earth and we have phrases like "epicycles", the next the earth orbits the sun and we have phrases like "perihelion". With regards to trans, British society has gone thru several paradigms or frames of reference when considering trans people, and each paradigm has its own terminology. Consequently a person born male and who lives as a woman may be described as a man in a frock, a male-to-female transsexual (MTF), a transfemme, a trans woman or a trans-identified male (TIM)..."
Oddly enough I left out "transgender woman", but there y'go.
I still don’t know exactly what a “transgender woman” IS
*briskly exits, before explosion*
Ask that bloke, whatisname, TOPPING - yes, that's him. He has solved the transgender debate.
My mind kinda glazes over whenever I encounter this debate. That’s not a political point just a personal observation. So even when someone TRIES to explain it all to me, within 90 seconds I tune out and think about something else more interesting, which is almost everything
That slice of the electorate is pretty niche, IMHO.
I'm also not sure there's much evidence for it being true.
It's a form of snobbery.
Snobbery is why it probably is true.
At the last boundary review, the border between Romford and Hornchurch & Upminster was tidied up a bit. House prices were cited in a number of objections from people who didn't want to be moved into Romford.
I would have thought the postal address mattered more than constituency - who cares which constituency a house is in when you view it?
(Written just over the Hornchurch side of the Romford boundary, both postal and ward - though I always say I live in Romford. Is Hornchurch really posher? As a non-native I can't say I'd noticed!)
Oh, I rely heavily on the fact that I'm in Highgate ward/Hampstead & Highgate constituency for my claim that I live in Highgate, despite being distant from Highgate tube station.
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
I think today is about ganging up on Reform, just like July 4th last year was. Conservatives against Reform gives Labour Runcorn. And, considering what number of votes Reform will get across the picture, not many mayors or councillors either.
Labour and Conservatives won’t get their vote out, will poll low, and that will be the headlines media will run with.
But for Reform or Greens to claim they are building all the time to something special will be classic fools gold. The era of politics before this one had libs/libdems having good times going up a few lines on snakes and ladders board, then always the snake that takes them back to square one. In the case of Reform, with 70% of voters motivated to come out just to vote against you, you’re going nowhere. You have a glass ceiling.
Tory voters are not “motivated to vote against Reform”. Polls show they rather like Farage
I totally disagree. A sizeable number of conservatives hate Farages Populism. Trump style Populism is not UK conservatism for one reason. It’s the enemy of their life long conservatism.
Farage more likelihood of mopping up Corbyn voters in Labour areas. than One Nation Conservatives.
The psephological reading of July 4th 24 supports what I am saying. What didn’t happen at the last election was Ref and Con lending each other votes efficiently to give the other seats, in the same way Labour, LibDem, Green, voters voted to stop Ref and Con gaining seats. It’s the only conclusion from this > Voting Block 1 Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; Green 6.7% - 4 seats. Voting Block 2 Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats. Voting Block 3 Reform 14.3% - 5 seats.
Today will produce the same thing. Gang up on Reform. Reform vote showing what we psephologists call large inefficiency.
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
I think today is about ganging up on Reform, just like July 4th last year was. Conservatives against Reform gives Labour Runcorn. And, considering what number of votes Reform will get across the picture, not many mayors or councillors either.
Labour and Conservatives won’t get their vote out, will poll low, and that will be the headlines media will run with.
But for Reform or Greens to claim they are building all the time to something special will be classic fools gold. The era of politics before this one had libs/libdems having good times going up a few lines on snakes and ladders board, then always the snake that takes them back to square one. In the case of Reform, with 70% of voters motivated to come out just to vote against you, you’re going nowhere. You have a glass ceiling.
Tory voters are not “motivated to vote against Reform”. Polls show they rather like Farage
47% or so, support parties of the Right, and more Conservatives, in a forced choice, would support Reform than either Labour or Lib Dems.
O/t, but, just appeared on the BBC News site: "Transgender women will no longer be able to play in women's football in England from 1 June, the Football Association has announced. English football's governing body amended its rules last month, applying stricter eligibility criteria for transgender women to continue playing in women's football."
I don't know.... does anyone ...... how many transgender men/women ARE playing football, but will we soon see Mens, Women's, and Transgender leagues?
The approach usually goes Male/Female/Trans categories, then nobody turns up, so then the Female category remains single-sex and excludes trans women and trans men as per the SC ruling, and the Male category becomes a mixed-sex category where anybody can play. That's how it worked out in darts.
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
It depends whether Runcornians consider themselves Liverpudlians or not. Having John Lennon Airport in a Faragist constituency would surely be an unbearable shame that few Liverpudlians would find tolerable.
Having an airport named after John Lennon is a mark of shame, all of its own.
I still don’t know exactly what a “transgender woman” IS
*briskly exits, before explosion*
Ask that bloke, whatisname, TOPPING - yes, that's him. He has solved the transgender debate.
My mind kinda glazes over whenever I encounter this debate. That’s not a political point just a personal observation. So even when someone TRIES to explain it all to me, within 90 seconds I tune out and think about something else more interesting, which is almost everything
I shall likely die in ignorance. Oh well
Same here just that I had a moment of clarity the other day.
The product of the debate turns on whether it is right for someone else to police *your* gender identity vs the right of biological women to exclude non-biological women from "their" spaces.
Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.
"This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness. Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."
I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.
Cooling on Jenrick so leaving Kemi in place until one of the myriad kings across the water can win a by-election. Jacob Rees-Mogg might be next up, God help them.
Could JRM really return be leader? Maybe, I suppose, given the intellectual phthsis that has rotted the tory party since 2016.
If Farage fails to beat Labour again at the next general election and Kemi also loses and resigns then the Tories could do worse than JRM if they want to reunite the right. JRM is one of the few Tories most Reform voters could vote for. They might leak a few more to the LDs and he is unlikely to become PM but you never know, everyone wrote off Corbyn before 2017 but he united the left behind him and got a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs
JRM? You mean Sir Jacob Rees Mogg?
"One of the few Tories most Reform voters could vote for."
Jeez. I've heard everything now.
Wouldn't he get in on the "proper toff" exception: namely, that an extremely privileged person can be accepted by the masses if they demonstrate their heart is in the right place?
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
I think today is about ganging up on Reform, just like July 4th last year was. Conservatives against Reform gives Labour Runcorn. And, considering what number of votes Reform will get across the picture, not many mayors or councillors either.
Labour and Conservatives won’t get their vote out, will poll low, and that will be the headlines media will run with.
But for Reform or Greens to claim they are building all the time to something special will be classic fools gold. The era of politics before this one had libs/libdems having good times going up a few lines on snakes and ladders board, then always the snake that takes them back to square one. In the case of Reform, with 70% of voters motivated to come out just to vote against you, you’re going nowhere. You have a glass ceiling.
Tory voters are not “motivated to vote against Reform”. Polls show they rather like Farage
I totally disagree. A sizeable number of conservatives hate Farages Populism. Trump style Populism is not UK conservatism for one reason. It’s the enemy of their life long conservatism.
Farage more likelihood of mopping up Corbyn voters in Labour areas. than One Nation Conservatives.
The psephological reading of July 4th 24 supports what I am saying. What didn’t happen at the last election was Ref and Con lending each other votes efficiently to give the other seats, in the same way Labour, LibDem, Green, voters voted to stop Ref and Con gaining seats. It’s the only conclusion from this > Voting Block 1 Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; Green 6.7% - 4 seats. Voting Block 2 Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats. Voting Block 3 Reform 14.3% - 5 seats.
Today will produce the same thing. Gang up on Reform. Reform vote showing what we psephologists call large inefficiency.
A Conservative voter in Godalming might vote Lib Dem to keep out Reform. A Conservative voter in Burnley or Doncaster will vote Reform to unseat Labour.
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
It depends whether Runcornians consider themselves Liverpudlians or not. Having John Lennon Airport in a Faragist constituency would surely be an unbearable shame that few Liverpudlians would find tolerable.
Having an airport named after John Lennon is a mark of shame, all of its own.
O/t, but, just appeared on the BBC News site: "Transgender women will no longer be able to play in women's football in England from 1 June, the Football Association has announced. English football's governing body amended its rules last month, applying stricter eligibility criteria for transgender women to continue playing in women's football."
I don't know.... does anyone ...... how many transgender men/women ARE playing football, but will we soon see Mens, Women's, and Transgender leagues?
The approach usually goes Male/Female/Trans categories, then nobody turns up, so then the Female category remains single-sex and excludes trans women and trans men as per the SC ruling, and the Male category becomes a mixed-sex category where anybody can play. That's how it worked out in darts.
Doesn't the men's category just become an open category for men and any kind of trans person?
'MAGA young intellectuals' reflecting on the Canadian Election result.
6 minutes.
The starkest things to me are 1) An insistence that it is little to do with Trump, and 2) A firm belief that this will 'perpetuate Canada's self-inflicted problems'.
I'm definitely not voting for one of the two main parties today, it's a case of having to decide which of the lesser parties to support. And at the moment I can't decide.
O/t, but, just appeared on the BBC News site: "Transgender women will no longer be able to play in women's football in England from 1 June, the Football Association has announced. English football's governing body amended its rules last month, applying stricter eligibility criteria for transgender women to continue playing in women's football."
I don't know.... does anyone ...... how many transgender men/women ARE playing football, but will we soon see Mens, Women's, and Transgender leagues?
The approach usually goes Male/Female/Trans categories, then nobody turns up, so then the Female category remains single-sex and excludes trans women and trans men as per the SC ruling, and the Male category becomes a mixed-sex category where anybody can play. That's how it worked out in darts.
Doesn't the men's category just become an open category for men and any kind of trans person?
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
I'm definitely not voting for one of the two main parties today, it's a case of having to decide which of the lesser parties to support. And at the moment I can't decide.
I'm definitely NOT voting for any of these reprobates today!
There aren't any elections in Ilford North OR the London Borough Councils this year
'MAGA young intellectuals' reflecting on the Canadian Election result.
6 minutes.
The starkest things to me are 1) An insistence that it is little to do with Trump, and 2) A firm belief that this will 'perpetuate Canada's self-inflicted problems'.
Not obviously a loon helps sure. Dull probably isn't an antidote to Starmer though.
Tactically making the same mistakes as Jenrick. Saying debt is too high, even comes up with a graph (27 seconds in to the 1 minute video) showing how Tory chancellors repeatedly and persistently took us further into debt than they promised. Look at the comments below - all it will do is drive voters to Reform.
'MAGA young intellectuals' reflecting on the Canadian Election result.
6 minutes.
The starkest things to me are 1) An insistence that it is little to do with Trump, and 2) A firm belief that this will 'perpetuate Canada's self-inflicted problems'.
I'm definitely not voting for one of the two main parties today, it's a case of having to decide which of the lesser parties to support. And at the moment I can't decide.
So not voting Reform then, not sure who the other main party is nowadays?
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.
"This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness. Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."
I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.
Cooling on Jenrick so leaving Kemi in place until one of the myriad kings across the water can win a by-election. Jacob Rees-Mogg might be next up, God help them.
Could JRM really return be leader? Maybe, I suppose, given the intellectual phthsis that has rotted the tory party since 2016.
If Farage fails to beat Labour again at the next general election and Kemi also loses and resigns then the Tories could do worse than JRM if they want to reunite the right. JRM is one of the few Tories most Reform voters could vote for. They might leak a few more to the LDs and he is unlikely to become PM but you never know, everyone wrote off Corbyn before 2017 but he united the left behind him and got a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs
JRM? You mean Sir Jacob Rees Mogg?
"One of the few Tories most Reform voters could vote for."
Jeez. I've heard everything now.
Wouldn't he get in on the "proper toff" exception: namely, that an extremely privileged person can be accepted by the masses if they demonstrate their heart is in the right place?
Son of a journalist?
Nouveau Riche at best, surely? His dad was only a Life Peer, and made just Sergeant in the military, and his grandad married an American.
I'm sure that one of them bought his own furniture !
O/t, but, just appeared on the BBC News site: "Transgender women will no longer be able to play in women's football in England from 1 June, the Football Association has announced. English football's governing body amended its rules last month, applying stricter eligibility criteria for transgender women to continue playing in women's football."
I don't know.... does anyone ...... how many transgender men/women ARE playing football, but will we soon see Mens, Women's, and Transgender leagues?
The approach usually goes Male/Female/Trans categories, then nobody turns up, so then the Female category remains single-sex and excludes trans women and trans men as per the SC ruling, and the Male category becomes a mixed-sex category where anybody can play. That's how it worked out in darts.
Doesn't the men's category just become an open category for men and any kind of trans person?
I'm definitely not voting for one of the two main parties today, it's a case of having to decide which of the lesser parties to support. And at the moment I can't decide.
Join the Global resistance movement! Vote Liberal...
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
From the Guardian, on alleged new Government guideline....
"Housebuilders will be legally required to install solar panels on the roofs of new properties by 2027 under the plans."
About time, too.
If it's "legally required", it's not a "guideline" !!!!!
"It's not legally required; it's in guidance", "this is a reasonable adjustment", and "you are of course free to take legal action", are key lines in any Local Authority trying to avoid removal of anti-wheelchair barriers for political reasons, whilst not saying so explicitly.
Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.
"This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness. Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."
I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.
Cooling on Jenrick so leaving Kemi in place until one of the myriad kings across the water can win a by-election. Jacob Rees-Mogg might be next up, God help them.
Could JRM really return be leader? Maybe, I suppose, given the intellectual phthsis that has rotted the tory party since 2016.
If Farage fails to beat Labour again at the next general election and Kemi also loses and resigns then the Tories could do worse than JRM if they want to reunite the right. JRM is one of the few Tories most Reform voters could vote for. They might leak a few more to the LDs and he is unlikely to become PM but you never know, everyone wrote off Corbyn before 2017 but he united the left behind him and got a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs
JRM? You mean Sir Jacob Rees Mogg?
"One of the few Tories most Reform voters could vote for."
Jeez. I've heard everything now.
Wouldn't he get in on the "proper toff" exception: namely, that an extremely privileged person can be accepted by the masses if they demonstrate their heart is in the right place?
Son of a journalist?
Nouveau Riche at best, surely? His dad was only a Life Peer, and made just Sergeant in the military, and his grandad married an American.
I'm sure that one of them bought his own furniture !
His wife's grandfather though was the 8th Earl Fitzwilliam who had an affair with JFK's sister and they were both killed in a plane crash
'MAGA young intellectuals' reflecting on the Canadian Election result.
6 minutes.
The starkest things to me are 1) An insistence that it is little to do with Trump, and 2) A firm belief that this will 'perpetuate Canada's self-inflicted problems'.
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
It depends whether Runcornians consider themselves Liverpudlians or not. Having John Lennon Airport in a Faragist constituency would surely be an unbearable shame that few Liverpudlians would find tolerable.
Having an airport named after John Lennon is a mark of shame, all of its own.
Why? Liverpool's second most famous son.
He was, but also a piece of shit.
Love the art, not the artist. I have a lovely postcard from 1912 Vienna for sale...
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
O/t, but, just appeared on the BBC News site: "Transgender women will no longer be able to play in women's football in England from 1 June, the Football Association has announced. English football's governing body amended its rules last month, applying stricter eligibility criteria for transgender women to continue playing in women's football."
I don't know.... does anyone ...... how many transgender men/women ARE playing football, but will we soon see Mens, Women's, and Transgender leagues?
The approach usually goes Male/Female/Trans categories, then nobody turns up, so then the Female category remains single-sex and excludes trans women and trans men as per the SC ruling, and the Male category becomes a mixed-sex category where anybody can play. That's how it worked out in darts.
Doesn't the men's category just become an open category for men and any kind of trans person?
I thought that's what I said? See bit in bold?
Well, Viewcode. Have the Trans stopped screaming?
I misread that as well (allegedly). Has the Fat Controller let Henry out yet?
O/t, but, just appeared on the BBC News site: "Transgender women will no longer be able to play in women's football in England from 1 June, the Football Association has announced. English football's governing body amended its rules last month, applying stricter eligibility criteria for transgender women to continue playing in women's football."
I don't know.... does anyone ...... how many transgender men/women ARE playing football, but will we soon see Mens, Women's, and Transgender leagues?
The approach usually goes Male/Female/Trans categories, then nobody turns up, so then the Female category remains single-sex and excludes trans women and trans men as per the SC ruling, and the Male category becomes a mixed-sex category where anybody can play. That's how it worked out in darts.
Doesn't the men's category just become an open category for men and any kind of trans person?
I thought that's what I said? See bit in bold?
Yep - The male category doesn't need protection in sports. It could be jettisoned for "Open" everywhere and boom there's trans inclusion sorted.
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
I think today is about ganging up on Reform, just like July 4th last year was. Conservatives against Reform gives Labour Runcorn. And, considering what number of votes Reform will get across the picture, not many mayors or councillors either.
Labour and Conservatives won’t get their vote out, will poll low, and that will be the headlines media will run with.
But for Reform or Greens to claim they are building all the time to something special will be classic fools gold. The era of politics before this one had libs/libdems having good times going up a few lines on snakes and ladders board, then always the snake that takes them back to square one. In the case of Reform, with 70% of voters motivated to come out just to vote against you, you’re going nowhere. You have a glass ceiling.
Tory voters are not “motivated to vote against Reform”. Polls show they rather like Farage
I totally disagree. A sizeable number of conservatives hate Farages Populism. Trump style Populism is not UK conservatism for one reason. It’s the enemy of their life long conservatism.
Farage more likelihood of mopping up Corbyn voters in Labour areas. than One Nation Conservatives.
The psephological reading of July 4th 24 supports what I am saying. What didn’t happen at the last election was Ref and Con lending each other votes efficiently to give the other seats, in the same way Labour, LibDem, Green, voters voted to stop Ref and Con gaining seats. It’s the only conclusion from this > Voting Block 1 Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; Green 6.7% - 4 seats. Voting Block 2 Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats. Voting Block 3 Reform 14.3% - 5 seats.
Today will produce the same thing. Gang up on Reform. Reform vote showing what we psephologists call large inefficiency.
I can see people being highly motivated to turn out & to vote tactically to stop Reform if it's a general election & genuine fear of a Reform government.
If it's just a by-election, then there's likely to be a lot of indifference & lack of motivation among Lib Dems/Labourites/One Nation Cons.
Angry Reform voters on the other hand are likely to be highly motivated to go out & vote, even in a by-election.
Those ward-level projections for Politics UK are very interesting.
The Conservatives are in the most trouble. They're getting hit by the Lib Dems in posh heartland areas, and by Reform in poorer heartland areas. The Lib Dems have a clear core vote of posh people. Reform are winning working, and lower-middle class people outside Core Cities. Labour have university seats, seats with lots of professional public sector workers, and areas with big BAME populations. It's honestly hard to see what section of the population the Conservatives are now appealing to. The 2019-24 government's approach, of focusing their appeal on retired people who favour high levels of immigration, has killed off their base.
Labour are also in trouble. Reform are sweeping through their old heartlands (Durham, industrial Northumberland, Doncaster, Burnley, the Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, ex-mining, industrial areas). That in turn, suggests they'll sweep through South Wales, Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, next year. Labour are saved by their new heartlands (see above). Reform are simply sweeping up more support than UKIP ever did, and since nothing succeeds like success, they are coming over as a lot more professional.
IMHO, Reform will take Runcorn fairly easily. People kick the government in by-elections.
Thanks. Two questions (highlighted above):
1 - Did you actually mean -"retired people who favour high levels of immigration". I have them as having pivoted to reactionaries under Sunak.
2 - I see Greater Manchester as having become more like London in recent years - resurgence and media / tech industries and so on. So I see it as less fruitful ground for RefUK than say Liverpool or Oldham.
The government pitched all its policies in favour of the retired, and that actually included the Boriswave of immigration. They wanted to admit a load of poorly-paid careworkers, among others.
Manchester proper will remain solid for Labour, and the commuter belt will remain Conservative v Lib Dem, but places like Oldham (as you say), Bolton, Rochdale, Bury, Wigan should be very fertile ground for Reform.
Yes, agree. There's very much a N/S divide in GM. South of the city centre is as MattW describes, and Reform are very thin on the ground. They get a bit of a hearing in Wythenshawe, but its only very slight. Northern GM a very different story. Rochdale, Oldham and Tameside in particular I expect to be fertile ground for Reform.
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
Not a view shared by all on the left. Lady Nugee for one.
The England football team (sorry Scotland, and Wales & NI) has done more for race relations than any politician. And next year England will win the World Cup in Canada, the United States and Mexico, or the 52 states of America as they will be known by then.
That's a thought. Do America's border guards know there will be millions of football fans invading the country from the south?
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
Not a view shared by all on the left. Lady Nugee for one.
Why on earth would it be? It is his personal story of identity.
The view of the England Flag, specifically.
Why would everyones on the lefts view of the England flag have been negative until Shearer and Sheringham scored a couple of goals which flipped it to positive? Some weren't even born then. Others didnt watch it or don't care. Others were positive about the flag long before 1996.
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
The biggest impact will be on GOP voters who are much more anti vax .
The question is why are GOP voters are much more anti-vax? There's no inherent reason why conservatism should be associated with anti-vax. Rather, Republican voters have been pulled into conspiracy theories and conspiracy theories seem to come together.
It's mistrust of official information. To support the current version of Republicanism requires a large amount of distrust of official information - partly because it's based on so many lies.
In a 3 seat ward, there are 3 Reform, 3 Labour, no Lib Dems (what happened?) and 3 "Independents", one of whom is a former Labour councillor ejected due to drug offences. There's 1 Tory candidate and 1 Green and neither are up to much.
I have no idea how to vote. The Labour lot are useless and interactions with them have not been good.
I think I shall have to practice drawing phalluses. Reform will win anyway.
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
Not a view shared by all on the left. Lady Nugee for one.
The England football team (sorry Scotland, and Wales & NI) has done more for race relations than any politician. And next year England will win the World Cup in Canada, the United States and Mexico, or the 52 states of America as they will be known by then.
That's a thought. Do America's border guards know there will be millions of football fans invading the country from the south?
They'll win the World Cup by a margin of Fenta-Nil.
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
It depends whether Runcornians consider themselves Liverpudlians or not. Having John Lennon Airport in a Faragist constituency would surely be an unbearable shame that few Liverpudlians would find tolerable.
Having an airport named after John Lennon is a mark of shame, all of its own.
Why? Liverpool's second most famous son.
He was, but also a piece of shit.
Love the art, not the artist. I have a lovely postcard from 1912 Vienna for sale...
Even for a pop star, John Lennon was objectionable to an extent where it mars my enjoyment of almost anything he's done. See also: Oasis. A pity, because objectively, John's slightly acerbic Beatles songwriting is much more to my taste than the much nicer Paul's straightforward melodic stuff.
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
Not a view shared by all on the left. Lady Nugee for one.
Why on earth would it be? It is his personal story of identity.
The view of the England Flag, specifically.
Why would everyones on the lefts view of the England flag have been negative until Shearer and Sheringham scored a couple of goals which flipped it to positive? Some weren't even born then. Others didnt watch it or don't care. Others were positive about the flag long before 1996.
Are you deliberately missing the point or is my posting that bad? Many on the left despise the England flag. That is the point I am making.
O/t, but, just appeared on the BBC News site: "Transgender women will no longer be able to play in women's football in England from 1 June, the Football Association has announced. English football's governing body amended its rules last month, applying stricter eligibility criteria for transgender women to continue playing in women's football."
I don't know.... does anyone ...... how many transgender men/women ARE playing football, but will we soon see Mens, Women's, and Transgender leagues?
The approach usually goes Male/Female/Trans categories, then nobody turns up, so then the Female category remains single-sex and excludes trans women and trans men as per the SC ruling, and the Male category becomes a mixed-sex category where anybody can play. That's how it worked out in darts.
Doesn't the men's category just become an open category for men and any kind of trans person?
I thought that's what I said? See bit in bold?
Yep - The male category doesn't need protection in sports. It could be jettisoned for "Open" everywhere and boom there's trans inclusion sorted.
Dunno, in due course we might be getting allegations of poor old blokes being made uncomfortable by trans people walking about naked in the changing rooms.
I for one am shocked that this Labour deal with the EU - praised by the PB centrist dads - turns out to be shockingly bad. We’ve yielded entirely on fishing rights in return for paying hard money to MAYBE get defence deals. It’s like Chagos
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
Not a view shared by all on the left. Lady Nugee for one.
The England football team (sorry Scotland, and Wales & NI) has done more for race relations than any politician. And next year England will win the World Cup in Canada, the United States and Mexico, or the 52 states of America as they will be known by then.
That's a thought. Do America's border guards know there will be millions of football fans invading the country from the south?
I'd love your predication to be correct but I just can't see it. The England team have been great in the last 7 years or so, but missed at least one great chance for a trophy (2021 Euros final - they should have nailed their advantage). Winning WC's is tough, especially away.
O/t, but, just appeared on the BBC News site: "Transgender women will no longer be able to play in women's football in England from 1 June, the Football Association has announced. English football's governing body amended its rules last month, applying stricter eligibility criteria for transgender women to continue playing in women's football."
I don't know.... does anyone ...... how many transgender men/women ARE playing football, but will we soon see Mens, Women's, and Transgender leagues?
The approach usually goes Male/Female/Trans categories, then nobody turns up, so then the Female category remains single-sex and excludes trans women and trans men as per the SC ruling, and the Male category becomes a mixed-sex category where anybody can play. That's how it worked out in darts.
Doesn't the men's category just become an open category for men and any kind of trans person?
I thought that's what I said? See bit in bold?
Yep - The male category doesn't need protection in sports. It could be jettisoned for "Open" everywhere and boom there's trans inclusion sorted.
Dunno, in due course we might be getting allegations of poor old blokes being made uncomfortable by trans people walking about naked in the changing rooms.
Some have suggested that eventually women will out perform men in ultra long distance running. But generally being male gives you an advantage in almost all sports.
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
It depends whether Runcornians consider themselves Liverpudlians or not. Having John Lennon Airport in a Faragist constituency would surely be an unbearable shame that few Liverpudlians would find tolerable.
Having an airport named after John Lennon is a mark of shame, all of its own.
Why? Liverpool's second most famous son.
He was, but also a piece of shit.
Love the art, not the artist. I have a lovely postcard from 1912 Vienna for sale...
Even for a pop star, John Lennon was objectionable to an extent where it mars my enjoyment of almost anything he's done. See also: Oasis. A pity, because objectively, John's slightly acerbic Beatles songwriting is much more to my taste than the much nicer Paul's straightforward melodic stuff.
Strangely Lennon’s massive objectionableness (is this a word?) seems to have passed me by. He seemed quite a spiky, angry, sarky bastard, but for me that was largely a positive.
I still don’t know exactly what a “transgender woman” IS
*briskly exits, before explosion*
Ask that bloke, whatisname, TOPPING - yes, that's him. He has solved the transgender debate.
My mind kinda glazes over whenever I encounter this debate. That’s not a political point just a personal observation. So even when someone TRIES to explain it all to me, within 90 seconds I tune out and think about something else more interesting, which is almost everything
I shall likely die in ignorance. Oh well
Given one of your good friends is a transgender woman and you often contribute when the topic arises, I suspect the ignorance is feigned. The alternative explanation, that you don't mind weighing in on something you have no clue about, is too distressing to contemplate.
I for one am shocked that this Labour deal with the EU - praised by the PB centrist dads - turns out to be shockingly bad. We’ve yielded entirely on fishing rights in return for paying hard money to MAYBE get defence deals. It’s like Chagos
Literally the shittiest government EVAH
Like Chagos, the deal probably makes them feel good. That alone is worth the billions in cost.
What on earth is going on with 10cc's Dreadlock Holiday.
How is it that this song hasn't been cancelled. Or the band. Are 10cc still a thing/alive/playing at the Shepherds Bush Empire next Friday?
What the hell is going on.
Edit: bloody hell they are playing Molesey in June as part of their UK tour.
It's just one of the classic four members (Graham Gouldman).
Trigger's broom/Ship of Theseus/10cc
(And just about every other band of yesteryear touring today - and as people will know, because I mention it regularly, there is barely a band of yesteryear not touring today.)
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
Not a view shared by all on the left. Lady Nugee for one.
The England football team (sorry Scotland, and Wales & NI) has done more for race relations than any politician. And next year England will win the World Cup in Canada, the United States and Mexico, or the 52 states of America as they will be known by then.
That's a thought. Do America's border guards know there will be millions of football fans invading the country from the south?
Up to a point. But I'd say things are only really good for race relations if they are good at race relations without ever really mentioning or drawing attention to race relations. You can't fully build harmonious race relations if you are forever pointing out racial differences, even if you are only doing so to point out how harmonious everyone is being. Because the implication is that you are being harmonious despite having different skin colours, implying that skin colours are therefore something to fall out about.
I can think of some good examples of things which are good for race relations without really mentioning it. But, getting a bit Heisenberg here, those examples would then be slightly less good as a result (inasmuch as Cookie-off-the-internet has any sort of impact on these matters, which is fairly infitesimally).
In today's byelection Reform win even if they lose. It will be close. So even a 2nd place to Labour having slashed that huge majority to a thousand or two demonstrates how big a threat they are everywhere.
If they win? Well...
I don't agree with this at all. RefUK has just four MPs - if they are to be a significant Parliamentary force (as opposed to a force on a par with Plaid Cymru) they need to be absolutely smashing through the old red wall, and that means they need to win eminently winnable by-elections like this. Runcorn is a seat where they were second last time (distant but still) and they need to mop these up like gravy when Labour are in the doldrums.
If they lose, even in a near miss, it's a very genuine loss. Not fatal, and they will probably be able to point to very good local election results. But to say "Reform win even if they lose" sets the bar way too low in my view - I'd be genuinely concerned if I was RefUK about anything other than a win as it'd speak to the point critics make about their relatively low ceiling.
Those ward-level projections for Politics UK are very interesting.
The Conservatives are in the most trouble. They're getting hit by the Lib Dems in posh heartland areas, and by Reform in poorer heartland areas. The Lib Dems have a clear core vote of posh people. Reform are winning working, and lower-middle class people outside Core Cities. Labour have university seats, seats with lots of professional public sector workers, and areas with big BAME populations. It's honestly hard to see what section of the population the Conservatives are now appealing to. The 2019-24 government's approach, of focusing their appeal on retired people who favour high levels of immigration, has killed off their base.
Labour are also in trouble. Reform are sweeping through their old heartlands (Durham, industrial Northumberland, Doncaster, Burnley, the Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, ex-mining, industrial areas). That in turn, suggests they'll sweep through South Wales, Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, next year. Labour are saved by their new heartlands (see above). Reform are simply sweeping up more support than UKIP ever did, and since nothing succeeds like success, they are coming over as a lot more professional.
IMHO, Reform will take Runcorn fairly easily. People kick the government in by-elections.
Thanks. Two questions (highlighted above):
1 - Did you actually mean -"retired people who favour high levels of immigration". I have them as having pivoted to reactionaries under Sunak.
2 - I see Greater Manchester as having become more like London in recent years - resurgence and media / tech industries and so on. So I see it as less fruitful ground for RefUK than say Liverpool or Oldham.
The government pitched all its policies in favour of the retired, and that actually included the Boriswave of immigration. They wanted to admit a load of poorly-paid careworkers, among others.
Manchester proper will remain solid for Labour, and the commuter belt will remain Conservative v Lib Dem, but places like Oldham (as you say), Bolton, Rochdale, Bury, Wigan should be very fertile ground for Reform.
Yes, agree. There's very much a N/S divide in GM. South of the city centre is as MattW describes, and Reform are very thin on the ground. They get a bit of a hearing in Wythenshawe, but its only very slight. Northern GM a very different story. Rochdale, Oldham and Tameside in particular I expect to be fertile ground for Reform.
Aren't the seats they won some of the "whitest" in England?
I'd have thought Rochdale and Oldham have too ethnically diverse a population for Reform to do very well. They're not likely to attract much of the non-white population, so would need to be doing extraordinarily well to make up for that (unless Labour are absolutely hammered by pro-Gaza candidates - but we don't know how that will play out at all at the next election).
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
It depends whether Runcornians consider themselves Liverpudlians or not. Having John Lennon Airport in a Faragist constituency would surely be an unbearable shame that few Liverpudlians would find tolerable.
Having an airport named after John Lennon is a mark of shame, all of its own.
Why? Liverpool's second most famous son.
He was, but also a piece of shit.
Love the art, not the artist. I have a lovely postcard from 1912 Vienna for sale...
The BBC just unveiled their restored Eric Gill mural in London.
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
Not a view shared by all on the left. Lady Nugee for one.
Why on earth would it be? It is his personal story of identity.
The view of the England Flag, specifically.
Why would everyones on the lefts view of the England flag have been negative until Shearer and Sheringham scored a couple of goals which flipped it to positive? Some weren't even born then. Others didnt watch it or don't care. Others were positive about the flag long before 1996.
Are you deliberately missing the point or is my posting that bad? Many on the left despise the England flag. That is the point I am making.
I'm sure they are all very much encouraged to change their mind from your reaction to Khan trying to be positive about said flag.
What on earth is going on with 10cc's Dreadlock Holiday.
How is it that this song hasn't been cancelled. Or the band. Are 10cc still a thing/alive/playing at the Shepherds Bush Empire next Friday?
What the hell is going on.
Edit: bloody hell they are playing Molesey in June as part of their UK tour.
It's just one of the classic four members (Graham Gouldman).
Trigger's broom/Ship of Theseus/10cc
(And just about every other band of yesteryear touring today - and as people will know, because I mention it regularly, there is barely a band of yesteryear not touring today.)
More than likely a publicity stunt to get their tour noticed but you can see why they chose it
What on earth is going on with 10cc's Dreadlock Holiday.
How is it that this song hasn't been cancelled. Or the band. Are 10cc still a thing/alive/playing at the Shepherds Bush Empire next Friday?
What the hell is going on.
Edit: bloody hell they are playing Molesey in June as part of their UK tour.
Funny I used to know them particularly Graham. He wrote some good songs. I just looked them up and they're hardly recognisable. This was then.....
You can see him in Hampton Court in June if you fancy it.
So what's with Dreadlock Holiday - wonder if they will be playing that.
It was in their 2024 sets.
I don't like cricket.....I love it.....
sings a white bloke in some kind of faux Caribbean accent about the natives.
Presumably moving on from ripping off the blues and soul, there was a bit of a thing for white British acts doing their tributes to reggae in the 70s which I guess was a sort of compliment. I’m woke as fuck but the Stones’ Black and Blue is still one of my favourite albums.
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
Not a view shared by all on the left. Lady Nugee for one.
Why on earth would it be? It is his personal story of identity.
The view of the England Flag, specifically.
Why would everyones on the lefts view of the England flag have been negative until Shearer and Sheringham scored a couple of goals which flipped it to positive? Some weren't even born then. Others didnt watch it or don't care. Others were positive about the flag long before 1996.
Are you deliberately missing the point or is my posting that bad? Many on the left despise the England flag. That is the point I am making.
Do you know anyone on the left that despises the England flag?
What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
It depends whether Runcornians consider themselves Liverpudlians or not. Having John Lennon Airport in a Faragist constituency would surely be an unbearable shame that few Liverpudlians would find tolerable.
Having an airport named after John Lennon is a mark of shame, all of its own.
Why? Liverpool's second most famous son.
He was, but also a piece of shit.
Love the art, not the artist. I have a lovely postcard from 1912 Vienna for sale...
Even for a pop star, John Lennon was objectionable to an extent where it mars my enjoyment of almost anything he's done. See also: Oasis. A pity, because objectively, John's slightly acerbic Beatles songwriting is much more to my taste than the much nicer Paul's straightforward melodic stuff.
That's a myth caused by their contrasting personal brands post the split. The edgy vs soppy Beatles catalogue is evenly split between John and Paul.
English, Muslim, European – and Proud of Every Part of My Identity, writes Sir Sadiq Khan ... Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
Not a view shared by all on the left. Lady Nugee for one.
The England football team (sorry Scotland, and Wales & NI) has done more for race relations than any politician. And next year England will win the World Cup in Canada, the United States and Mexico, or the 52 states of America as they will be known by then.
That's a thought. Do America's border guards know there will be millions of football fans invading the country from the south?
I'd love your predication to be correct but I just can't see it. The England team have been great in the last 7 years or so, but missed at least one great chance for a trophy (2021 Euros final - they should have nailed their advantage). Winning WC's is tough, especially away.
England is good enough to win, especially after Southgate introduced the cunning foreign trick of rehearsing penalty shoot-outs. The trouble is, there are lots of other countries also good enough to win. We've seen before how one stroke of bad luck (or unseeing officials) can be fatal – the hand of God goal; Lamps' goal disallowed; the ball moving as Beckham took his penalty.
In a 3 seat ward, there are 3 Reform, 3 Labour, no Lib Dems (what happened?) and 3 "Independents", one of whom is a former Labour councillor ejected due to drug offences. There's 1 Tory candidate and 1 Green and neither are up to much.
I have no idea how to vote. The Labour lot are useless and interactions with them have not been good.
I think I shall have to practice drawing phalluses. Reform will win anyway.
Please be careful. If your cock is drawn neatly inside the box next to my candidate and I am asked to verify it at the count, I'm arguing that it's a clear vote as its the only mark on the paper...
Comments
"One of the few Tories most Reform voters could vote for."
Jeez. I've heard everything now.
If they win? Well...
They’ve built up major momentum BUT they’ve hit obstacles too. The Lowe dispute was bad, their links to Trump are a potential minefield
They really need a win to keep up that sense of inevitability as they rise. A defeat won’t be fatal, it will
be a major dent
NB: Farage has been to Runcorn several times these last weeks; Starmer not once
https://members.parliament.uk/opposition/cabinet
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/5180468/#Comment_5180468
"...The paradigms people use to interpret the world change over time: one day the sun orbits the earth and we have phrases like "epicycles", the next the earth orbits the sun and we have phrases like "perihelion". With regards to trans, British society has gone thru several paradigms or frames of reference when considering trans people, and each paradigm has its own terminology. Consequently a person born male and who lives as a woman may be described as a man in a frock, a male-to-female transsexual (MTF), a transfemme, a trans woman or a trans-identified male (TIM)..."
Oddly enough I left out "transgender woman", but there y'go.
I shall likely die in ignorance. Oh well
Farage more likelihood of mopping up Corbyn voters in Labour areas. than One Nation Conservatives.
The psephological reading of July 4th 24 supports what I am saying. What didn’t happen at the last election was Ref and Con lending each other votes efficiently to give the other seats, in the same way Labour, LibDem, Green, voters voted to stop Ref and Con gaining seats. It’s the only conclusion from this >
Voting Block 1 Lab 33.7% - 412 seats; LibDem 12.2% - 72 seats; Green 6.7% - 4 seats.
Voting Block 2 Conservatives 23.7% - 121 seats.
Voting Block 3 Reform 14.3% - 5 seats.
Today will produce the same thing. Gang up on Reform. Reform vote showing what we psephologists call large inefficiency.
The product of the debate turns on whether it is right for someone else to police *your* gender identity vs the right of biological women to exclude non-biological women from "their" spaces.
6 minutes.
The starkest things to me are 1) An insistence that it is little to do with Trump, and 2) A firm belief that this will 'perpetuate Canada's self-inflicted problems'.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KHX2PafAOE&t=1457s
...
Growing up, I wasn’t always comfortable around the St George’s flag.
It was a time when, first, the National Front, and then the BNP were on the march, and it sometimes felt our flag had been co-opted by them.
But for me, everything changed one glorious summer during Euro '96. I’ll never forget watching England dismantle the Dutch 4-1 at Wembley.
It was an exhilarating performance that led to an outpouring of joy and euphoria. And after the final whistle, tens of thousands of us waved the red cross with gusto and embraced while chanting ‘football’s coming home’.
In that moment, it felt as if our flag had been reclaimed and recast as a symbol of national unity. Something that no longer belonged to the hateful few, but to the decent majority.
https://www.lbc.co.uk/opinion/views/sadiq-khan-english-muslim-european-and-proud/
There aren't any elections in Ilford North OR the London Borough Councils this year
Tactically making the same mistakes as Jenrick. Saying debt is too high, even comes up with a graph (27 seconds in to the 1 minute video) showing how Tory chancellors repeatedly and persistently took us further into debt than they promised. Look at the comments below - all it will do is drive voters to Reform.
https://x.com/MelJStride/status/1917465906537717877?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
Tories need to stop trashing the country, by doing so they trash their own brand the most.
"Housebuilders will be legally required to install solar panels on the roofs of new properties by 2027 under the plans."
About time, too.
Alberta and Saskatchewan, the two Right-wing majority Provinces, were just as right-wing this year as they were in 2021!
[end HYUFD]
Nouveau Riche at best, surely? His dad was only a Life Peer, and made just Sergeant in the military, and his grandad married an American.
I'm sure that one of them bought his own furniture !
"It's not legally required; it's in guidance", "this is a reasonable adjustment", and "you are of course free to take legal action", are key lines in any Local Authority trying to avoid removal of anti-wheelchair barriers for political reasons, whilst not saying so explicitly.
https://sheffielder.net/2020/03/21/the-playboy-earl-and-a-kennedy/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helena_Rees-Mogg
10CC members. They are around 79-80 years old
Suddenly, I feel my own age
😩
My SMPQ.
If it's just a by-election, then there's likely to be a lot of indifference & lack of motivation among Lib Dems/Labourites/One Nation Cons.
Angry Reform voters on the other hand are likely to be highly motivated to go out & vote, even in a by-election.
This is quite an interesting piece, with some lovely maps, on the middlesclassification of GM (and London) between 2011 and 2021 - which as you can see has been much greater in the south of the conurbation.
https://citygeographics.org/2022/12/15/tracking-gentrification-in-london-and-manchester-using-the-2021-census-occupational-class-data/
That's a thought. Do America's border guards know there will be millions of football fans invading the country from the south?
Diplomats say extra conditions are being added to a security agreement to be signed at the EU-UK summit in London
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/britain-eu-defence-fund-x6cw778tn (£££)
Of course there are.
In a 3 seat ward, there are 3 Reform, 3 Labour, no Lib Dems (what happened?) and 3 "Independents", one of whom is a former Labour councillor ejected due to drug offences. There's 1 Tory candidate and 1 Green and neither are up to much.
I have no idea how to vote. The Labour lot are useless and interactions with them have not been good.
I think I shall have to practice drawing phalluses. Reform will win anyway.
A pity, because objectively, John's slightly acerbic Beatles songwriting is much more to my taste than the much nicer Paul's straightforward melodic stuff.
Literally the shittiest government EVAH
"...But, as this column has spent a decade and a half proving, there is no such thing as an uninteresting by-election..."
(And just about every other band of yesteryear touring today - and as people will know, because I mention it regularly, there is barely a band of yesteryear not touring today.)
I can think of some good examples of things which are good for race relations without really mentioning it. But, getting a bit Heisenberg here, those examples would then be slightly less good as a result (inasmuch as Cookie-off-the-internet has any sort of impact on these matters, which is fairly infitesimally).
Angus Colwell" (£)
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-creeping-dubai-ification-of-london/?homepage-tracking=magazine-article-1
sings a white bloke in some kind of faux Caribbean accent about the natives.
If they lose, even in a near miss, it's a very genuine loss. Not fatal, and they will probably be able to point to very good local election results. But to say "Reform win even if they lose" sets the bar way too low in my view - I'd be genuinely concerned if I was RefUK about anything other than a win as it'd speak to the point critics make about their relatively low ceiling.
I'd have thought Rochdale and Oldham have too ethnically diverse a population for Reform to do very well. They're not likely to attract much of the non-white population, so would need to be doing extraordinarily well to make up for that (unless Labour are absolutely hammered by pro-Gaza candidates - but we don't know how that will play out at all at the next election).
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly114y8gn7o
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUNTk5xsxk4
(I think Godley and Creme directed it)
I’m woke as fuck but the Stones’ Black and Blue is still one of my favourite albums.