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Is this the way for the Tories and Labour to defeat Reform? – politicalbetting.com
Is this the way for the Tories and Labour to defeat Reform? – politicalbetting.com
via @tombaldwin66.bsky.social "when I walked around one of the constituency’s more well-to-do areas last week a woman told me she was backing Labour for the 1st time because of what the reputational damage of having a Reform MP 'might mean for our property prices'www.thetimes.com/comment/colu…
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Of course: some of this was simply that it's almost impossible to work in Canada without proper authorisation. Canada has one of the smallest undocumented labour markets in the developed world. The US, by contrast, has the largest.
With that said...
The moment that the US made a fuss about it, Canada changed their policies. The numbers crossing the border (North to South) are down 60% y-o-y. And this probably understates the impact because large numbers of people had already got Canadian tourist visas.
Crossings started dropping immediately following the initial Trudeau-Trump meeting, where Trudeau promised both visa changes (which were implemented) and increased border security.
- The outstanding value of all residential mortgage loans increased by 0.4% from the previous quarter to £1,660.9 billion, and was 0.3% higher than a year earlier (Table A).1
- The value of gross mortgage advances increased by 16.7% from the previous quarter to £60.2 billion, the first increase since 2023 Q3, and was 15.5% higher than a year earlier (Table A and Chart 1).
- The value of new mortgage commitments (lending agreed to be advanced in the coming months) increased by 11.3% from the previous quarter to £66.9 billion, and was 12.5% greater than a year earlier (Table A and Chart 1).
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/mortgage-lenders-and-administrators/2024/2024-q2https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/01/world/canada/canada-us-border-immigration.html?unlocked_article_code=1.D08.Qdcc.oBnNu0XfHLm1&smid=url-share
Given the outsize impact of air travel on the emissions, a tax on people driving to the airport is as about as fair an environmental tax that I can think of. Miliband should introduce it while cutting domestic electricity taxes, which have an inverse distributional impact.
It's a form of snobbery.
Only 5 years ago he was effectively running the government.
At the last boundary review, the border between Romford and Hornchurch & Upminster was tidied up a bit. House prices were cited in a number of objections from people who didn't want to be moved into Romford.
However, there is an argument in some environmental circles that we should fund the switch to renewables via standard progressive taxation rather than additional taxes on energy, which I tend to agree with. It would be a very small increase, given the overall cost of that subsidy is so small (roughly 3% on your energy bill).
But that misses the Pigou principle of "polluter pays".
In less than 24 hours we will know.
I think Lab hold is probably value on current odds, Merseyside always seems less Reformy than other bits of the North.
Greens to beat LDs at evens is my other bet. The Corbynite Greens won't vote tactically.
These are mine - the main one is that I am sticking with my long-suggested "+500 for Reform will be enough to be taken seriously", which seems in range.
RefUK: Plus 500-600
Labour: Minus 80-100
Lib Dem: Plus 100-200
Con: Minus 600-650
Green: Plus 25-50
Others: The balance item
Margins or Error: Ish
https://www.markpack.org.uk/174615/local-election-predictions/
Why are the Tories so low in the polls? Its because they're so low in the public attention. People stopped listening to them during the last parliament and with Kemi in charge they're not about to give them another try.
I have no doubt that some people will tactically vote Labour to stop Reform. But I would expect the Labour vote to be unenthusiastic at best, vs a fuker army very enthusiastic.
The only hope Labour have is to heavily squeeze the Lib Dem and Green vote , however the polling so far hasn’t shown evidence of that .
In terms of Find Out Now polls which show the best national lead for Reform it’s normally better to poll over several days and not conduct fieldwork on just one day .
RFK Jr on measles: "The MMR vaccine contains a lot of aborted fetus debris."
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1917748575267602924
That is contemporaneous - not from years ago.
They won't go to zero, because there is a constituency for "conservatism" with change, public money, the country, and the constitution but they need to get clear on it and reestablish a reputation for competent government.
The intertia in large spinning masses which generate electricity means they resist instantaneous changes in generating frequency, as it makes it simply impossible for their speed of rotation (which determines the frequency at which they generate AC power) to change rapidly.
It doesn't mean they release extra power.
The only reason we need a constant frequency (or AC power at all) is all the legacy kit of the last century's electrical generation. Mismatched frequencies will damage it.
With modern power inverters, if you were starting from scratch, you could build a new grid which was entirely DC.
Too much old stuff out there designed for AC, though.
Not buying that and they don’t publish their weighting’s . They’re likely to be having to weight their results heavily as with just one day of fieldwork you’re going to struggle to fill your quotas .
I’d be quite surprised if Labour voters weren’t disillusioned right now, Labour have virtually only done unpopular things so far.
But recall that it is 2025 and the next election won’t be for at least three years. A lot can happen in that time.
Very soon we will have the immigration figures which will presumably show a large drop. Labour seems determined to cut immigration.
They seem to be slowly working out a plan for the small boats which I think entails a deal with France.
The reason AC is better for power distribution is you can transform it to very high voltages which minimise transmission losses then transform it down again
We do need to allow that this is ordinarily a very safe Labour seat, so would take a massive swing to unseat, and Merseyside always seems more solidly Labour than flakier areas.
(Written just over the Hornchurch side of the Romford boundary, both postal and ward - though I always say I live in Romford. Is Hornchurch really posher? As a non-native I can't say I'd noticed!)
Policies won't shift votes, but snobbery will. Hmmm....all very English,
Enjoy the weather, and the results, everyone.
But, I'm not sure how much is attributable to the county. Firstly, East Hampshire is pretty posh anyway, and has almost always been Conservative, but it's not a home county, and Farnham is better connected by rail to London and Guilford and is better known. Also, East Hampshire is pretty rural, it has fewer immediate facilities on its doorstep, and you have to drive around a bit to get to places.
That said, Surrey snobbery is definitely a thing - because now and again when I go to wine and cheese type socials in Farnham and I'm asked exactly where I live, which is in East Hampshire, there is an occasional, "oh, why don't you live in Farnham?" reaction.
My answer in my head is: because of people like you.
But with modern power electronics, you can effectively do that with DC (which is far more efficient for long distance transmission anyway), which is why long distance high voltage transmission is already moving over to DC ... still supplying an AC grid.
Ladbrokes still haven't paid out on Liberal Minority.
Not really understanding what the reputational damage of a Reform MP might be, I confess. If s/he is that awful as an MP, vote 'em out again.
Good morning, everybody.
The Conservatives are in the most trouble. They're getting hit by the Lib Dems in posh heartland areas, and by Reform in poorer heartland areas. The Lib Dems have a clear core vote of posh people. Reform are winning working, and lower-middle class people outside Core Cities. Labour have university seats, seats with lots of professional public sector workers, and areas with big BAME populations. It's honestly hard to see what section of the population the Conservatives are now appealing to. The 2019-24 government's approach, of focusing their appeal on retired people who favour high levels of immigration, has killed off their base.
Labour are also in trouble. Reform are sweeping through their old heartlands (Durham, industrial Northumberland, Doncaster, Burnley, the Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, ex-mining, industrial areas). That in turn, suggests they'll sweep through South Wales, Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, next year. Labour are saved by their new heartlands (see above). Reform are simply sweeping up more support than UKIP ever did, and since nothing succeeds like success, they are coming over as a lot more professional.
IMHO, Reform will take Runcorn fairly easily. People kick the government in by-elections.
Unless they explode
But since when did material reality have anything to do with political campaigning?
"Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers
"Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"
Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."
https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
Why did nobody think of this before?
Frodsham (which is very nice, despite being the scene of the original kerfuffle) is not mentioned in the constituency title so would probably get away with it, and Runcorn's reputation probably can't get much worse anyway.
They're vastly more reliable than a decade ago.
One other point about Robert's piece - wind turbines don't provide any frequency inertia in the way a steam turbine does, as their generating frequency isn't mechanically determined, but rather controlled by power electronics.
So the rotating inertial mass isn't mechanically coupled to the grid frequency.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/labours-demographic-crisis/
Labour’s BME base is collapsing with the rise of the sectarian “Gaza independents” - the Muslim vote
This alone could cost them tens of seats in 2029. Yay
That does not mean they will always find sensible options to vote for, or always vote the 'sensible' way. It does not mean that they don't think, like Leon, that a paradigm shift is not needed, just that such a shift should be filtered and led by serious, sensible people.
I feel Reform at current attracts very little of this sensible vote. The UK doesn't immediately feel that this sensible vote isn't going to split mainly Con / Lab with a bit of Lib Dem, and under those circumstances the floors are likely to be Con 20%, Labour around 16% as seen in much of Europe, and combined slightly higher still.
The existential danger to Lab / Con comes when the sensible vote deserts the traditional, as happened with Macron in France, as happened with the long term project to paint AN / FdI as the sensible right of centre option in Italy. I don't see what happens in the UK to cause that shift.
I was under the impression that attacking a police officer was a much more serious offence....attacking two of them, while admitting drug use....nah, off your trot that big brain of yours is still developing.
It is not impossible therefore that a certain type of Hyacinth Bucket lady voter who would not normally vote anything but Tory (or at a push LD locally as they mend the potholes and stop developers spoiling their views) might hold their nose and vote Starmer Labour for the first time to stop a Reform MP lowering the tone of their area and their house prices. Most Tory voters though, especially straight white male Tory voters, would vote Reform over Labour if they were the top 2 choices in the seat they lived in
But Upminster is posher than both.
In a major procurement move, at least one NATO country is reportedly attempting to acquire Ukraine's highly successful Delta battlefield management system.
The Delta system is both accessible and feature-rich, enabling increased awareness and coordination across the joint force.
https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1917401096420552832
I wonder if any of the PB ‘Trump will be ok for UKR’ guys have been on a similar journey?
“Tagdu was also given a 12-week curfew and banned from all bars, pubs and clubs in Dorset for one year.
He was also ordered to pay £250 compensation to each officer, paid out of the £67.50 a week he receives as a basic living allowance.”
In other words, he was given a tiny fine. And who pays his fine? Not him. Us. The British taxpayer
The British taxpayer is paying the fines of invading foreigners who assault British police officers on British streets. Still, now he has to stay home a bit more. A home we have given him, which is charged to us
Twin engine aeroplanes have more failures than single engine planes
Transformers have perhaps the lowest component count possible
However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
I don't know if they've completed all the counting now, or not.
In Italy centre right Forza Italia on the other hand are in government with Meloni's populist right FdI, so if that did happen we could see some interesting governing coalitions
Starmer's mistake though isn't one or two policies that are affecting almost no one but that he doesn't know how to set the weather. The British like a leader who leads
Half the time he looks like he's following farage and half following Trump. Meanwhile there's a large centre ground that only Ed Davey seems interested in.
He has two opportunities staring him in the face. One is the EU full on. The more opposition from the Telegrah The Mail and the Express the better. Make the Tories and Reform look like the reactionaries they are. They are pathologically against but by at least 60/40 the voters are not.
The second is moral leadership which does not involve ramming his head up Trumps backside. The pendulum is swinging wildly in America at the moment and as in the Vietnam days the Universities are pointing the way
So Insttead of sending Rayner to say how appalling anti Semitism is on the 80th anniversary of Bergen Belsen he should have got her to ask what the world has learnt in those 80 years.
And to have had the courage and leadership to point out that the number of deaths in Bergen Belsen in 4 years precisely matches the number of Palestinians who have lost their lives to the Israels in less than 2......