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Is this the way for the Tories and Labour to defeat Reform? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,665
    Canada also goes with the Green Party joint leadership. It doesn't seem to work, does it?

    "Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault has announced that he is stepping down from his post after failing to secure a seat in the House of Commons."
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,322

    Canada also goes with the Green Party joint leadership. It doesn't seem to work, does it?

    "Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault has announced that he is stepping down from his post after failing to secure a seat in the House of Commons."

    The problem for them is if they went for the traditional leader/deputy approach the deputy always ends up green with envy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,625
    Morning all,

    Happy Dogs At Polling Stations Day!

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,625
    As I don't have a dog I have had to vote by post.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,665
    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,379
    .

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Don’t give them ideas, they might start saying imprisonment is against human rights.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,001

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense (I don’t know the law here) but given the recent revelations of activist Woke judges, who knows. See here, from Bobby J:

    “Rebecca Chapman sits as an immigration judge.

    But she also works as a caseworker for a charity that advises migrants in Calais who are looking to enter Britain illegally.

    🧵Here’s the latest infuriating example of an activist judge and how Labour are defending a broken system👇”

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1917617154352120252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
  • eekeek Posts: 29,799
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    I've just read that Gatwick airport management are putting up the drop off charge to 7quid from 2 May. There is no possible justification apart from some bullshit about the eco footprint bollocks so often spoken about.
    If Gatwick was worried about it's eco footprintbolocks they'd reduce the no of flights not try for a second runway.
    The whole business is shambolic and designed to fleece the traveller.

    You get 2 hrs pick up and drop off at the long stay foc and the airport buses are every few minutes and only take a few minutes so it is a bit of an unnecessary luxury to be delivered or picked up directly from the terminal to be honest.
    I would have put the charge up even further. People complaining about this probably have a bad case of CarBrain, they can't comprehend doing anything but using a car to drive right to the door of the place they need to be.
    I normally get the train to Gatwick, unless I have a particularly early flight - and I tend not to book those. Partly because I can't get there, partly because getting up in the middle of the night starts a trip on a bum note
    The couple of times I’ve had an early flight from Gatwick it’s been travel down the night before and the premier inn by the airport isn’t that expensive in the scheme of things
    I shall be getting a neighbour to drop me at the petrol station and walk the 100 yds or so to the escalator. SCREW Gatwick who are putting up the charge to make them look green. It's Ed Milibandism and they can get stuffed.
    With all due respect, they are simply invoking the name of Milliband to justify raising prices.
    So are all most corporate green initiatives. Robbing the poor and claiming you're doing it for the future of the planet. Nice work if you can get it.
    Stop being so ridiculous. The highest income decile fly 5-8x as much as the lowest (and that's just number of trips), and drive 3x as much. The top 1% account for over 20% of all flights.

    Given the outsize impact of air travel on the emissions, a tax on people driving to the airport is as about as fair an environmental tax that I can think of. Miliband should introduce it while cutting domestic electricity taxes, which have an inverse distributional impact.
    If they want to help people on lower incomes then they should axe standing charges and bundle infra costs into the KWh rate. Poor people get punished for using less energy because of if standing charges. Aiui the idiot is doing the opposite and lumping more tax surcharges into the standing charge which will disproportionately effect low income households.
    Even those bundled prices don’t help the low usage customers as often the standing charge is bundled in the first 5 kWh and it’s almost impossible to not use 5 kWh a day - I mean my daughter is a low usage household and she uses 6 kWh a day
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,522
    edited 8:07AM
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    I've just read that Gatwick airport management are putting up the drop off charge to 7quid from 2 May. There is no possible justification apart from some bullshit about the eco footprint bollocks so often spoken about.
    If Gatwick was worried about it's eco footprintbolocks they'd reduce the no of flights not try for a second runway.
    The whole business is shambolic and designed to fleece the traveller.

    You get 2 hrs pick up and drop off at the long stay foc and the airport buses are every few minutes and only take a few minutes so it is a bit of an unnecessary luxury to be delivered or picked up directly from the terminal to be honest.
    I would have put the charge up even further. People complaining about this probably have a bad case of CarBrain, they can't comprehend doing anything but using a car to drive right to the door of the place they need to be.
    I normally get the train to Gatwick, unless I have a particularly early flight - and I tend not to book those. Partly because I can't get there, partly because getting up in the middle of the night starts a trip on a bum note
    The couple of times I’ve had an early flight from Gatwick it’s been travel down the night before and the premier inn by the airport isn’t that expensive in the scheme of things
    I shall be getting a neighbour to drop me at the petrol station and walk the 100 yds or so to the escalator. SCREW Gatwick who are putting up the charge to make them look green. It's Ed Milibandism and they can get stuffed.
    With all due respect, they are simply invoking the name of Milliband to justify raising prices.
    So are all most corporate green initiatives. Robbing the poor and claiming you're doing it for the future of the planet. Nice work if you can get it.
    Stop being so ridiculous. The highest income decile fly 5-8x as much as the lowest (and that's just number of trips), and drive 3x as much. The top 1% account for over 20% of all flights.

    Given the outsize impact of air travel on the emissions, a tax on people driving to the airport is as about as fair an environmental tax that I can think of. Miliband should introduce it while cutting domestic electricity taxes, which have an inverse distributional impact.
    If they want to help people on lower incomes then they should axe standing charges and bundle infra costs into the KWh rate. Poor people get punished for using less energy because of if standing charges. Aiui the idiot is doing the opposite and lumping more tax surcharges into the standing charge which will disproportionately effect low income households.
    A truly terrible idea, and the reverse of what should be happening.

    Standing charges exist because of the fixed costs of providing a connection. If they didn't, there would be incentives for people to demand connections for trivial energy use, at ruinous expense to the companies, and, eventually, our already absurdly over-charged energy customers.

    In fact, for economic efficiency, which is the best way to grow the economy and therefore help the poorest, standing charges should be higher than they actually are (as should the capacity element in gas) but Ofgem massages them down for politically correct reasons to the economy's detriment.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,322
    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense (I don’t know the law here) but given the recent revelations of activist Woke judges, who knows. See here, from Bobby J:

    “Rebecca Chapman sits as an immigration judge.

    But she also works as a caseworker for a charity that advises migrants in Calais who are looking to enter Britain illegally.

    🧵Here’s the latest infuriating example of an activist judge and how Labour are defending a broken system👇”

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1917617154352120252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    She was appointed a judge in 2015. Why did Labour appoint her in the first place? And they have had 10 years to do something about it since. Shocking. I'm switching to voting Tory to fix this.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,001

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense (I don’t know the law here) but given the recent revelations of activist Woke judges, who knows. See here, from Bobby J:

    “Rebecca Chapman sits as an immigration judge.

    But she also works as a caseworker for a charity that advises migrants in Calais who are looking to enter Britain illegally.

    🧵Here’s the latest infuriating example of an activist judge and how Labour are defending a broken system👇”

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1917617154352120252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    She was appointed a judge in 2015. Why did Labour appoint her in the first place? And they have had 10 years to do something about it since. Shocking. I'm switching to voting Tory to fix this.
    Well, indeed

    The problem for the Tories - Bobby J very much included - is that they had 14 long stupid years to roll back Woke, to sack the Blob, to get a grip on immigration. They not only failed, they made it worse: the Boriswave

    That’s why I now believe Reform is the only credible option, flawed as they are. Given that Reform now lead the polls, I’m clearly not alone
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,187
    edited 8:15AM
    Roger said:

    A pretty good article by Baldwin.

    Starmer's mistake though isn't one or two policies that are affecting almost no one but that he doesn't know how to set the weather. The British like a leader who leads

    Half the time he looks like he's following farage and half following Trump. Meanwhile there's a large centre ground that only Ed Davey seems interested in.

    He has two opportunities staring him in the face. One is the EU full on. The more opposition from the Telegrah The Mail and the Express the better. Make the Tories and Reform look like the reactionaries they are. They are pathologically against but by at least 60/40 the voters are not.

    The second is moral leadership which does not involve ramming his head up Trumps backside. The pendulum is swinging wildly in America at the moment and as in the Vietnam days the Universities are pointing the way

    So Insttead of sending Rayner to say how appalling anti Semitism is on the 80th anniversary of Bergen Belsen he should have got her to ask what the world has learnt in those 80 years.

    And to have had the courage and leadership to point out that the number of deaths in Bergen Belsen in 4 years precisely matches the number of Palestinians who have lost their lives to the Israels in less than 2......

    Going for full rejoin EU or even customs union and single market and free movement however means Starmer can kiss goodbye to any prospect of a second Labour majority as the redwall seats Labour gained at the last general election which voted for Boris in 2019 would go Reform en masse and the Tories would pick up some softer Leave middle class seats which voted Tory since 2010 but went Labour last year too.

    He would end up having to do a deal with Ed Davey to stay in office, maybe even the SNP and Corbynite Independents too, which would mean a closer relationship with the EU anyway and a harder line against Trump and Netanyahu
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,322
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense (I don’t know the law here) but given the recent revelations of activist Woke judges, who knows. See here, from Bobby J:

    “Rebecca Chapman sits as an immigration judge.

    But she also works as a caseworker for a charity that advises migrants in Calais who are looking to enter Britain illegally.

    🧵Here’s the latest infuriating example of an activist judge and how Labour are defending a broken system👇”

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1917617154352120252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    She was appointed a judge in 2015. Why did Labour appoint her in the first place? And they have had 10 years to do something about it since. Shocking. I'm switching to voting Tory to fix this.
    Well, indeed

    The problem for the Tories - Bobby J very much included - is that they had 14 long stupid years to roll back Woke, to sack the Blob, to get a grip on immigration. They not only failed, they made it worse: the Boriswave

    That’s why I now believe Reform is the only credible option, flawed as they are. Given that Reform now lead the polls, I’m clearly not alone
    Reform will let you down too. What then?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,934
    Looking at the new US defence budget, they plan to replace AWACS with "air moving target indicator military satellites".

    If they use IR tracking, then stealth will no longer be stealthy.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,729
    Our polling station wasn't even open when I passed at 7:50 this morning.

    It's a good job we don't have elections this year in Bradford.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,729

    I had to Google Gail's, having never heard of it before. It's Greggs for posh people?

    Greggs is Greggs for posh people. Gails is Greggs for posh people who are too daft to go to Greggs.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,786
    edited 8:19AM
    What on earth is going on with 10cc's Dreadlock Holiday.

    How is it that this song hasn't been cancelled. Or the band. Are 10cc still a thing/alive/playing at the Shepherds Bush Empire next Friday?

    What the hell is going on.

    Edit: bloody hell they are playing Molesey in June as part of their UK tour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,001

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense (I don’t know the law here) but given the recent revelations of activist Woke judges, who knows. See here, from Bobby J:

    “Rebecca Chapman sits as an immigration judge.

    But she also works as a caseworker for a charity that advises migrants in Calais who are looking to enter Britain illegally.

    🧵Here’s the latest infuriating example of an activist judge and how Labour are defending a broken system👇”

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1917617154352120252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    She was appointed a judge in 2015. Why did Labour appoint her in the first place? And they have had 10 years to do something about it since. Shocking. I'm switching to voting Tory to fix this.
    Well, indeed

    The problem for the Tories - Bobby J very much included - is that they had 14 long stupid years to roll back Woke, to sack the Blob, to get a grip on immigration. They not only failed, they made it worse: the Boriswave

    That’s why I now believe Reform is the only credible option, flawed as they are. Given that Reform now lead the polls, I’m clearly not alone
    Reform will let you down too. What then?
    Revolution in my head
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,314
    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense...
    Now let's be honest here. You'd not usually dismiss random shite on social media as nonsense. You'd usually suck it up with a straw, then come on here and regurgitate it at tedious length.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,794

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense (I don’t know the law here) but given the recent revelations of activist Woke judges, who knows. See here, from Bobby J:

    “Rebecca Chapman sits as an immigration judge.

    But she also works as a caseworker for a charity that advises migrants in Calais who are looking to enter Britain illegally.

    🧵Here’s the latest infuriating example of an activist judge and how Labour are defending a broken system👇”

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1917617154352120252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    She was appointed a judge in 2015. Why
    did Labour appoint her in the first place?
    And they have had 10 years to do
    something about it since. Shocking. I'm
    switching to voting Tory to fix this.
    As always with these stories it’s a “immigration judge” - ie an immigration tribunal chair, not a *real* judge. I’m not sure if they even need legal qualifications?

    Blair really undermined confidence I. The legal system with that that simple nomenclature change

  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,888

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense (I don’t know the law here) but given the recent revelations of activist Woke judges, who knows. See here, from Bobby J:

    “Rebecca Chapman sits as an immigration judge.

    But she also works as a caseworker for a charity that advises migrants in Calais who are looking to enter Britain illegally.

    🧵Here’s the latest infuriating example of an activist judge and how Labour are defending a broken system👇”

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1917617154352120252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    She was appointed a judge in 2015. Why did Labour appoint her in the first place? And they have had 10 years to do something about it since. Shocking. I'm switching to voting Tory to fix this.
    Governments don't appoint judges it is the job of the independent Judicial Appointments Committee
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,322
    edited 8:26AM
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense (I don’t know the law here) but given the recent revelations of activist Woke judges, who knows. See here, from Bobby J:

    “Rebecca Chapman sits as an immigration judge.

    But she also works as a caseworker for a charity that advises migrants in Calais who are looking to enter Britain illegally.

    🧵Here’s the latest infuriating example of an activist judge and how Labour are defending a broken system👇”

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1917617154352120252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    She was appointed a judge in 2015. Why did Labour appoint her in the first place? And they have had 10 years to do something about it since. Shocking. I'm switching to voting Tory to fix this.
    Governments don't appoint judges it is the job of the independent Judicial Appointments Committee
    In case it wasn't obvious my post was sarcastically pointing out how counter productive Jenricks post was. If the system is broken the party of government for 14 of the last 15 years is to blame.

    Reform will love his post.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,379
    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense (I don’t know the law here) but given the recent revelations of activist Woke judges, who knows. See here, from Bobby J:

    “Rebecca Chapman sits as an immigration judge.

    But she also works as a caseworker for a charity that advises migrants in Calais who are looking to enter Britain illegally.

    🧵Here’s the latest infuriating example of an activist judge and how Labour are defending a broken system👇”

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1917617154352120252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    That's clearly a conflict of interest.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,001

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense...
    Now let's be honest here. You'd not usually dismiss random shite on social media as nonsense. You'd usually suck it up with a straw, then come on here and regurgitate it at tedious length.

    Then you should be praising my spiritual growth
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,322
    edited 8:34AM
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense (I don’t know the law here) but given the recent revelations of activist Woke judges, who knows. See here, from Bobby J:

    “Rebecca Chapman sits as an immigration judge.

    But she also works as a caseworker for a charity that advises migrants in Calais who are looking to enter Britain illegally.

    🧵Here’s the latest infuriating example of an activist judge and how Labour are defending a broken system👇”

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1917617154352120252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    She was appointed a judge in 2015. Why did Labour appoint her in the first place? And they have had 10 years to do something about it since. Shocking. I'm switching to voting Tory to fix this.
    Well, indeed

    The problem for the Tories - Bobby J very much included - is that they had 14 long stupid years to roll back Woke, to sack the Blob, to get a grip on immigration. They not only failed, they made it worse: the Boriswave

    That’s why I now believe Reform is the only credible option, flawed as they are. Given that Reform now lead the polls, I’m clearly not alone
    Reform will let you down too. What then?
    Revolution in my head
    Does happen every few hundred years. So maybe a 2-3% chance.

    Takeover of state by the tech bros is most likely imo and what people should be more concerned about than party politics.

    Also noteworthy that no pushback on Reform letting you down - even their voters don't really believe in them delivering despite their enthusiasm. People are far from logical.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,987
    Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.

    "This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness.
    Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/05/01/jesse-norman-ive-seen-demands-for-policy-now-but-badenoch-is-right-to-take-her-time/
  • PJHPJH Posts: 821

    PJH said:

    Sean_F said:

    That slice of the electorate is pretty niche, IMHO.

    I'm also not sure there's much evidence for it being true.

    It's a form of snobbery.
    Snobbery is why it probably is true.

    At the last boundary review, the border between Romford and Hornchurch & Upminster was tidied up a bit. House prices were cited in a number of objections from people who didn't want to be moved into Romford.
    I would have thought the postal address mattered more than constituency - who cares which constituency a house is in when you view it?

    (Written just over the Hornchurch side of the Romford boundary, both postal and ward - though I always say I live in Romford. Is Hornchurch really posher? As a non-native I can't say I'd noticed!)
    I'm also not from these parts, but I'd say yes. One political manifestation- Hornchurch elects Residents Association councillors, Romford has Conservatives.

    But Upminster is posher than both.
    Well you can tell I'm on the border as I have 2 Residents and 1 Conservative councillor!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,918
    “Plan for Change”

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1917836432204521492

    In today's local elections, the choice is clear:

    Labour councillors, Mayors and MPs working together to bring change to Britain.

    Or chaos and division with parties who have no Plan for Change.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,128
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    And you paid his fine
    Typical of this country , if it had been a local they would have been in the pokey tout suite.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,352

    Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.

    "This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness.
    Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/05/01/jesse-norman-ive-seen-demands-for-policy-now-but-badenoch-is-right-to-take-her-time/

    I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,887
    On topic, yes. Having a Reform MP, like a 60%+ Leave vote in 2016, is the sign of a place gone to the dogs . If you see it coming you should probably move to avoid being stuck with a devalued property.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,404
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,317

    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense (I don’t know the law here) but given the recent revelations of activist Woke judges, who knows. See here, from Bobby J:

    “Rebecca Chapman sits as an immigration judge.

    But she also works as a caseworker for a charity that advises migrants in Calais who are looking to enter Britain illegally.

    🧵Here’s the latest infuriating example of an activist judge and how Labour are defending a broken system👇”

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1917617154352120252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    She was appointed a judge in 2015. Why did Labour appoint her in the first place? And they have had 10 years to do something about it since. Shocking. I'm switching to voting Tory to fix this.
    Governments don't appoint judges it is the job of the independent Judicial Appointments Committee
    In case it wasn't obvious my post was sarcastically pointing out how counter productive Jenricks post was. If the system is broken the party of government for 14 of the last 15 years is to blame.

    Reform will love his post.
    This also shows why Jenrick should not replace Kemi. He blunders into the same elephant traps that she does in criticising the government for the actions of the previous Conservative regime. He has no vision for Britain, just a slight difference on cosying up to Farage.
  • PJHPJH Posts: 821
    edited 8:45AM

    “Plan for Change”

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1917836432204521492

    In today's local elections, the choice is clear:

    Labour councillors, Mayors and MPs working together to bring change to Britain.

    Or chaos and division with parties who have no Plan for Change.

    That sounds a bit like something I heard once before. Stability and strong government, wasn't it, as opposed to chaos with Ed Miliband? I'm so glad we chose stability...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,511
    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is going on with 10cc's Dreadlock Holiday.

    How is it that this song hasn't been cancelled. Or the band. Are 10cc still a thing/alive/playing at the Shepherds Bush Empire next Friday?

    What the hell is going on.

    Edit: bloody hell they are playing Molesey in June as part of their UK tour.



    Funny I used to know them particularly Graham. He wrote some good songs. I just looked them up and they're hardly recognisable. This was then.....


  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,934
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.

    "This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness.
    Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/05/01/jesse-norman-ive-seen-demands-for-policy-now-but-badenoch-is-right-to-take-her-time/

    I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.

    Norman's namesake is, of course, a famous soprano.
    And we all know the one about the opera not being over until...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,317
    edited 8:49AM

    “Plan for Change”

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1917836432204521492

    In today's local elections, the choice is clear:

    Labour councillors, Mayors and MPs working together to bring change to Britain.

    Or chaos and division with parties who have no Plan for Change.

    Someone at Labour HQ is having fun with AI on the 10th anniversary of the chaos with Ed Miliband tweet.

    Damn! Scooped by PJH.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,314
    edited 8:48AM
    MaxPB said:

    Eabhal said:

    rcs1000 said:

    eek said:

    kjh said:

    I've just read that Gatwick airport management are putting up the drop off charge to 7quid from 2 May. There is no possible justification apart from some bullshit about the eco footprint bollocks so often spoken about.
    If Gatwick was worried about it's eco footprintbolocks they'd reduce the no of flights not try for a second runway.
    The whole business is shambolic and designed to fleece the traveller.

    You get 2 hrs pick up and drop off at the long stay foc and the airport buses are every few minutes and only take a few minutes so it is a bit of an unnecessary luxury to be delivered or picked up directly from the terminal to be honest.
    I would have put the charge up even further. People complaining about this probably have a bad case of CarBrain, they can't comprehend doing anything but using a car to drive right to the door of the place they need to be.
    I normally get the train to Gatwick, unless I have a particularly early flight - and I tend not to book those. Partly because I can't get there, partly because getting up in the middle of the night starts a trip on a bum note
    The couple of times I’ve had an early flight from Gatwick it’s been travel down the night before and the premier inn by the airport isn’t that expensive in the scheme of things
    I shall be getting a neighbour to drop me at the petrol station and walk the 100 yds or so to the escalator. SCREW Gatwick who are putting up the charge to make them look green. It's Ed Milibandism and they can get stuffed.
    With all due respect, they are simply invoking the name of Milliband to justify raising prices.
    So are all most corporate green initiatives. Robbing the poor and claiming you're doing it for the future of the planet. Nice work if you can get it.
    Stop being so ridiculous. The highest income decile fly 5-8x as much as the lowest (and that's just number of trips), and drive 3x as much. The top 1% account for over 20% of all flights.

    Given the outsize impact of air travel on the emissions, a tax on people driving to the airport is as about as fair an environmental tax that I can think of. Miliband should introduce it while cutting domestic electricity taxes, which have an inverse distributional impact.
    If they want to help people on lower incomes then they should axe standing charges and bundle infra costs into the KWh rate. Poor people get punished for using less energy because of if standing charges. Aiui the idiot is doing the opposite and lumping more tax surcharges into the standing charge which will disproportionately effect low income households.
    Trouble with that is that the real beneficiaries from that policy are people like my parents who have a solar + battery setup that means they are basically off-grid 11 months of the year. Their only contribution to the costs their connection places on the grid (which is larger than you think, because the times when they actually draw power off the grid will be when the grid is near peak demand) is the standing charge.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,799

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Pagan2 said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Stuff like this guarantees a Reform victory. And it’s daily


    "Small boat migrant avoids jail after punching female police officers

    "Ethiopian asylum seeker had to be dragged off one of his victims by a member of the public, court hears"

    Tariku Hadgu, 21, was told by a judge his brain “is not fully formed” and he would be imprisoned if he committed another offence."

    https://x.com/tonydowson5/status/1917550305866117239?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw

    Got to say - that should have been immediate jail and out of the country.

    However the sentence was only 16 weeks so I can see why it's ended up being suspended but boy does it look bad.
    Assuming all the facts are as detailed why immediate jail...just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail in any case and doesn't cost us badly needed space in a jail nor the cost of keeping him there
    "just straight out the country, it is probably more of a punishment than jail" = immediate grounds for the judiciary to say he can stay here...
    Some rando on X is saying that the judge avoided giving a 12 month jail sentence BECAUSE that means immediate deportation

    Usually I’d dismiss this as nonsense (I don’t know the law here) but given the recent revelations of activist Woke judges, who knows. See here, from Bobby J:

    “Rebecca Chapman sits as an immigration judge.

    But she also works as a caseworker for a charity that advises migrants in Calais who are looking to enter Britain illegally.

    🧵Here’s the latest infuriating example of an activist judge and how Labour are defending a broken system👇”

    https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1917617154352120252?s=46&t=bulOICNH15U6kB0MwE6Lfw
    She was appointed a judge in 2015. Why did Labour appoint her in the first place? And they have had 10 years to do something about it since. Shocking. I'm switching to voting Tory to fix this.
    Well, indeed

    The problem for the Tories - Bobby J very much included - is that they had 14 long stupid years to roll back Woke, to sack the Blob, to get a grip on immigration. They not only failed, they made it worse: the Boriswave

    That’s why I now believe Reform is the only credible option, flawed as they are. Given that Reform now lead the polls, I’m clearly not alone
    Reform will let you down too. What then?
    Revolution in my head
    Does happen every few hundred years. So maybe a 2-3% chance.

    Takeover of state by the tech bros is most likely imo and what people should be more concerned about than party politics.

    Also noteworthy that no pushback on Reform letting you down - even their voters don't really believe in them delivering despite their enthusiasm. People are far from logical.
    Reform is a protest vote from the have nots because the other parties haven't delivered.

    The question and problem is what haven't they delivered because reality is I don't think what people in forgottenville small town outside the south east want that is achievable.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,317
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.

    "This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness.
    Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/05/01/jesse-norman-ive-seen-demands-for-policy-now-but-badenoch-is-right-to-take-her-time/

    I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.

    Cooling on Jenrick so leaving Kemi in place until one of the myriad kings across the water can win a by-election. Jacob Rees-Mogg might be next up, God help them.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,987
    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is going on with 10cc's Dreadlock Holiday.

    How is it that this song hasn't been cancelled. Or the band. Are 10cc still a thing/alive/playing at the Shepherds Bush Empire next Friday?

    What the hell is going on.

    Edit: bloody hell they are playing Molesey in June as part of their UK tour.



    Funny I used to know them particularly Graham. He wrote some good songs. I just looked them up and they're hardly recognisable. This was then.....


    Ha. Just a few days I played - for the first time in years - a 10cc greatest hits CD.

    Surprisingly good. Very bright, often funny lyrics, and a switchback approach to tunes, often several in the same song.

    "Life is a minestrone
    Served up with parmesan cheese
    Death is a cold Lasagne
    Suspended in deep freeze
    Love is a fire of flaming brandy
    Upon a crepe suzette
    Let's get this romance cooking, honey
    But let us not forget."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,934
    Thread on the Ukraine agreement here (I assume it's correct ?):

    The agreement on the establishment of U.S.–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund was signed 🇺🇦🇺🇸

    🧵Key provisions of the Agreement:

    1️⃣ Full Ukrainian ownership and control.
    All resources on our territory and in our territorial waters remain the property of Ukraine. The Ukrainian state decides what and where to extract. Subsoil resources remain in Ukrainian ownership — this is enshrined in the agreement...



    6️⃣ The Fund will be filled only with income from new licenses.

    This refers to 50% of revenues from new licenses for critical materials, oil, and gas projects issued after the Fund’s creation. Revenues from current or previously budgeted projects are not included. The Agreement covers future strategic cooperation...

    https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1917822195969016226
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,511
    edited 8:58AM
    A nothing story from the Telegraph which could be turned into something racist and in jumps Leon dragging the usual three or four racist/faragist posters who get off on this sort of stuff.

    It's so boring........
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,434
    I surprised my splitting my vote today. Lib Dem for the mayoral, and Conservative for the locals. I was going to vote Lib Dem for both, but I vaguely know the Conservative candidate, and she's worked hard for the community. She's also local, whilst the Lib Dem had an address in Cambridge.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,896

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is going on with 10cc's Dreadlock Holiday.

    How is it that this song hasn't been cancelled. Or the band. Are 10cc still a thing/alive/playing at the Shepherds Bush Empire next Friday?

    What the hell is going on.

    Edit: bloody hell they are playing Molesey in June as part of their UK tour.



    Funny I used to know them particularly Graham. He wrote some good songs. I just looked them up and they're hardly recognisable. This was then.....


    Ha. Just a few days I played - for the first time in years - a 10cc greatest hits CD.

    Surprisingly good. Very bright, often funny lyrics, and a switchback approach to tunes, often several in the same song.

    "Life is a minestrone
    Served up with parmesan cheese
    Death is a cold Lasagne
    Suspended in deep freeze
    Love is a fire of flaming brandy
    Upon a crepe suzette
    Let's get this romance cooking, honey
    But let us not forget."
    They were sort of a Radio 2 staple when I was growing up in the 80s and my mum listened to Radio 2. I found them as dreary as other radio 2 staples. I now realise I was wrong. Very clever, both lyrically and musically. I think I went to school with the son of one of them. I suspect everyone in Greater Manchester is only one or two removes from a member of 10cc.

    This is a nice video of a Canadian fella on a pilgrimage to Stockport to see where "I'm not in love" was recorded.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJRPeqpmQAs
  • PJHPJH Posts: 821

    “Plan for Change”

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1917836432204521492

    In today's local elections, the choice is clear:

    Labour councillors, Mayors and MPs working together to bring change to Britain.

    Or chaos and division with parties who have no Plan for Change.

    Someone at Labour HQ is having fun with AI on the 10th anniversary of the chaos with Ed Miliband tweet.

    Damn! Scooped by PJH.
    Ah but you knew it was the anniversary so you were one-up on me and can claim the politics nerd of the day prize on PB :smile:
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,352

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.

    "This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness.
    Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/05/01/jesse-norman-ive-seen-demands-for-policy-now-but-badenoch-is-right-to-take-her-time/

    I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.

    Cooling on Jenrick so leaving Kemi in place until one of the myriad kings across the water can win a by-election. Jacob Rees-Mogg might be next up, God help them.
    Could JRM really return be leader? Maybe, I suppose, given the intellectual phthsis that has rotted the tory party since 2016.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,934
    Apparently Kim Jong Un has been calling Trump to ask how he sources his sycophants.

    Burgum: "Everybody I've met, whether it's at a coal mine or the border, law enforcement, the one thing they say is please thank President Trump from all of us."
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1917627952365228428
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,064
    Good morning

    On our local facebook community group a member posted

    'Why haven't I received my polling card for the elections tomorrow ? '

    Response.

    There are no elections here in Wales tomorrow !!!

    It did make me smile, but maybe talks to the wider issue of the lack of engagement with politics generally
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,414

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.

    "This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness.
    Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/05/01/jesse-norman-ive-seen-demands-for-policy-now-but-badenoch-is-right-to-take-her-time/

    I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.

    Cooling on Jenrick so leaving Kemi in place until one of the myriad kings across the water can win a by-election. Jacob Rees-Mogg might be next up, God help them.
    The Tories are really flirting with oblivion, aren't they? The Economist Bagehot column was talking about the dead voters still influencing the parties from beyond the grave, and I think the message for the Conservative party is pretty clear.
    The question now is will the Tories and RefUK cancel out the right entirely or will sufficient regional variations persist and the battle continues?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,262
    Nigelb said:

    Thread on the Ukraine agreement here (I assume it's correct ?):

    The agreement on the establishment of U.S.–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund was signed 🇺🇦🇺🇸

    🧵Key provisions of the Agreement:

    1️⃣ Full Ukrainian ownership and control.
    All resources on our territory and in our territorial waters remain the property of Ukraine. The Ukrainian state decides what and where to extract. Subsoil resources remain in Ukrainian ownership — this is enshrined in the agreement...



    6️⃣ The Fund will be filled only with income from new licenses.

    This refers to 50% of revenues from new licenses for critical materials, oil, and gas projects issued after the Fund’s creation. Revenues from current or previously budgeted projects are not included. The Agreement covers future strategic cooperation...

    https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1917822195969016226

    What's Ukraine's enforcement mechanism for breach of contract ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,402
    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is going on with 10cc's Dreadlock Holiday.

    How is it that this song hasn't been cancelled. Or the band. Are 10cc still a thing/alive/playing at the Shepherds Bush Empire next Friday?

    What the hell is going on.

    Edit: bloody hell they are playing Molesey in June as part of their UK tour.

    One of the greatest pop songs of all time, and the music video is amusing as well.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,322
    Nigelb said:

    Apparently Kim Jong Un has been calling Trump to ask how he sources his sycophants.

    Burgum: "Everybody I've met, whether it's at a coal mine or the border, law enforcement, the one thing they say is please thank President Trump from all of us."
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1917627952365228428

    Might it be being in charge of a multi-trillion dollar budget and not merely turning a blind eye to corruption but actively encouraging it and leading the way personally by example?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,187
    edited 9:06AM
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.

    "This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness.
    Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/05/01/jesse-norman-ive-seen-demands-for-policy-now-but-badenoch-is-right-to-take-her-time/

    I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.

    Cooling on Jenrick so leaving Kemi in place until one of the myriad kings across the water can win a by-election. Jacob Rees-Mogg might be next up, God help them.
    Could JRM really return be leader? Maybe, I suppose, given the intellectual phthsis that has rotted the tory party since 2016.
    If Farage fails to beat Labour again at the next general election and Kemi also loses and resigns then the Tories could do worse than JRM if they want to reunite the right. JRM is one of the few Tories most Reform voters could vote for. They might leak a few more to the LDs and he is unlikely to become PM but you never know, everyone wrote off Corbyn before 2017 but he united the left behind him and got a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,322
    Nigelb said:

    Thread on the Ukraine agreement here (I assume it's correct ?):

    The agreement on the establishment of U.S.–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund was signed 🇺🇦🇺🇸

    🧵Key provisions of the Agreement:

    1️⃣ Full Ukrainian ownership and control.
    All resources on our territory and in our territorial waters remain the property of Ukraine. The Ukrainian state decides what and where to extract. Subsoil resources remain in Ukrainian ownership — this is enshrined in the agreement...



    6️⃣ The Fund will be filled only with income from new licenses.

    This refers to 50% of revenues from new licenses for critical materials, oil, and gas projects issued after the Fund’s creation. Revenues from current or previously budgeted projects are not included. The Agreement covers future strategic cooperation...

    https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1917822195969016226

    If its only on new licenses that is a pretty good agreement from Ukraine, compared to the initial suggestions at least. They can renegotiate in a future peace time simply by not issuing any further licences for a few years.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,786
    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is going on with 10cc's Dreadlock Holiday.

    How is it that this song hasn't been cancelled. Or the band. Are 10cc still a thing/alive/playing at the Shepherds Bush Empire next Friday?

    What the hell is going on.

    Edit: bloody hell they are playing Molesey in June as part of their UK tour.



    Funny I used to know them particularly Graham. He wrote some good songs. I just looked them up and they're hardly recognisable. This was then.....


    You can see him in Hampton Court in June if you fancy it.

    So what's with Dreadlock Holiday - wonder if they will be playing that.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,352
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.

    "This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness.
    Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/05/01/jesse-norman-ive-seen-demands-for-policy-now-but-badenoch-is-right-to-take-her-time/

    I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.

    Cooling on Jenrick so leaving Kemi in place until one of the myriad kings across the water can win a by-election. Jacob Rees-Mogg might be next up, God help them.
    Could JRM really return be leader? Maybe, I suppose, given the intellectual phthsis that has rotted the tory party since 2016.
    If Farage fails to beat Labour again at the next general election and Kemi also loses and resigns then the Tories could do worse than JRM if they want to reunite the right. JRM is one of the few Tories most Reform voters could vote for. They might leak a few more to the LDs and he is unlikely to become PM but you never know, everyone wrote off Corbyn before 2017 but he united the left behind him and got a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs
    There's something in that. JRM, au moins, conforms with the chavic notion of toryness. Unlike KM by dint of gender, ethnicity and globalist mien.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,786
    edited 9:09AM
    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is going on with 10cc's Dreadlock Holiday.

    How is it that this song hasn't been cancelled. Or the band. Are 10cc still a thing/alive/playing at the Shepherds Bush Empire next Friday?

    What the hell is going on.

    Edit: bloody hell they are playing Molesey in June as part of their UK tour.

    One of the greatest pop songs of all time, and the music video is amusing as well.
    For some reason, I listened to I Would do Anything for You (don't ask), and then let Amazon Music do its autoplay thing and it took the 80s rock/ballad route, rather than the rock n' roll route and up popped 10cc.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,064
    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.

    "This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness.
    Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/05/01/jesse-norman-ive-seen-demands-for-policy-now-but-badenoch-is-right-to-take-her-time/

    I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.

    Cooling on Jenrick so leaving Kemi in place until one of the myriad kings across the water can win a by-election. Jacob Rees-Mogg might be next up, God help them.
    Could JRM really return be leader? Maybe, I suppose, given the intellectual phthsis that has rotted the tory party since 2016.
    If Farage fails to beat Labour again at the next general election and Kemi also loses and resigns then the Tories could do worse than JRM if they want to reunite the right. JRM is one of the few Tories most Reform voters could vote for. They might leak a few more to the LDs and he is unlikely to become PM but you never know, everyone wrote off Corbyn before 2017 but he united the left behind him and got a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs
    Apart from yourself, I do not know anyone who thinks the conservative party's future will be enhanced by the ridiculous JRM
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,187
    edited 9:12AM
    kinabalu said:

    On topic, yes. Having a Reform MP, like a 60%+ Leave vote in 2016, is the sign of a place gone to the dogs . If you see it coming you should probably move to avoid being stuck with a devalued property.

    Epping Forest was 62% Leave in 2016 and yet has an average house price of £605,279, well above average.

    Though admittedly it still does not have a Reform MP nor is it projected one on most forecasts
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,322

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.

    "This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness.
    Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/05/01/jesse-norman-ive-seen-demands-for-policy-now-but-badenoch-is-right-to-take-her-time/

    I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.

    Cooling on Jenrick so leaving Kemi in place until one of the myriad kings across the water can win a by-election. Jacob Rees-Mogg might be next up, God help them.
    When you consider their lack of current response and potential alternative leaders it is hard not to think that they are already finished. I still think Farage will prefer the Conservative brand as the vehicle for becoming PM, but at the rate Kemi and Bobbie are trashing it that may well change before the next election.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,402
    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,064
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    Too close to call for me
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,317
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.

    "This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness.
    Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/05/01/jesse-norman-ive-seen-demands-for-policy-now-but-badenoch-is-right-to-take-her-time/

    I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.

    Cooling on Jenrick so leaving Kemi in place until one of the myriad kings across the water can win a by-election. Jacob Rees-Mogg might be next up, God help them.
    Could JRM really return be leader? Maybe, I suppose, given the intellectual phthsis that has rotted the tory party since 2016.
    The plan for Tory revival is like one of those classic project planning memes where the penultimate step is and then a miracle occurs (sadly, my image quota was used on the polling day Matt cartoon at the end of the last thread).
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,322
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    Reform win is a consensus. Some splitting between easy win and narrow win. I'm easy.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,659

    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    Too close to call for me
    Reform for me.

    Labour should have played the Trump card. Few Reform voters have realised yet the extent to which their Party is sponsored by the White House. Surprised the Tories didn't make more of this either.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,128
    Roger said:

    A nothing story from the Telegraph which could be turned into something racist and in jumps Leon dragging the usual three or four racist/faragist posters who get off on this sort of stuff.

    It's so boring........

    Here come the dog whistlers, hardly racist highlighting the lax sentencing of illegal immigrants in comparison to local people. Two tier policing and sentencing is de rigeur in England at least nowadays. Justice system is full on woke.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,317
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is going on with 10cc's Dreadlock Holiday.

    How is it that this song hasn't been cancelled. Or the band. Are 10cc still a thing/alive/playing at the Shepherds Bush Empire next Friday?

    What the hell is going on.

    Edit: bloody hell they are playing Molesey in June as part of their UK tour.



    Funny I used to know them particularly Graham. He wrote some good songs. I just looked them up and they're hardly recognisable. This was then.....


    You can see him in Hampton Court in June if you fancy it.

    So what's with Dreadlock Holiday - wonder if they will be playing that.
    You can see his huge Hampton, caught in the evening sun (O-level history joke).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,128
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    Does anyone give a flying fcuk what moron gets on the gravy train.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,805

    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    Too close to call for me
    I think that Reform will probably sneak it - but there are enough question marks that I'd be betting on Lab at current prices if forced to choose where to put my money.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,128

    HYUFD said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Ahead of the trouncing, the case for Kemi by Jesse Norman, an unusually thoughtful Tory MP. Worth a look.

    "This methodical strategy is not without risk, of course; and the party will have to earn its passage in the meantime. But the pressures on Britain’s economy, its energy resilience, its public services, and its constitutional settlement cannot be fixed by short-term promises. Nor can political trust, once squandered, be won back by a sudden burst of activity. It must be rebuilt carefully, through clarity, honesty, and long-term seriousness.
    Badenoch is treating the public not as customers to be flattered, but as citizens who deserve the truth. That is rare. It is also essential."

    https://conservativehome.com/2025/05/01/jesse-norman-ive-seen-demands-for-policy-now-but-badenoch-is-right-to-take-her-time/

    I presume this spate of Kemi's not that bad really articles in the Telegraph, Con Home, etc. means we're close to the end. The tory party are putting her into palliative care and will trip the RCD on life support at an opportune time.

    Cooling on Jenrick so leaving Kemi in place until one of the myriad kings across the water can win a by-election. Jacob Rees-Mogg might be next up, God help them.
    Could JRM really return be leader? Maybe, I suppose, given the intellectual phthsis that has rotted the tory party since 2016.
    If Farage fails to beat Labour again at the next general election and Kemi also loses and resigns then the Tories could do worse than JRM if they want to reunite the right. JRM is one of the few Tories most Reform voters could vote for. They might leak a few more to the LDs and he is unlikely to become PM but you never know, everyone wrote off Corbyn before 2017 but he united the left behind him and got a hung parliament and 262 Labour MPs
    Apart from yourself, I do not know anyone who thinks the conservative party's future will be enhanced by the ridiculous JRM
    Those are the rantings of a lunatic G, he has lost it totally for sure. Tory downfall has unhinged him from reality.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,770
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    I think Reform may just pull it off. But Labour will run them close!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,317

    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    Too close to call for me
    Reform for me.

    Labour should have played the Trump card. Few Reform voters have realised yet the extent to which their Party is sponsored by the White House. Surprised the Tories didn't make more of this either.
    Hard for Labour because the government has to deal with Trump, like him or not. Hard for the Conservatives who see the Republicans as their sister party (although whether that is requited...).
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,772

    Sean_F said:

    That slice of the electorate is pretty niche, IMHO.

    I'm also not sure there's much evidence for it being true.

    It's a form of snobbery.
    Snobbery is why it probably is true.

    At the last boundary review, the border between Romford and Hornchurch & Upminster was tidied up a bit. House prices were cited in a number of objections from people who didn't want to be moved into Romford.
    Was there a material difference in those house prices as a consequence?
    Not really, and the area is pretty homogeneous at the boundary.

    But since when did material reality have anything to do with political campaigning?
    One difference at boundaries is Council Tax and Council Services.

    There's a big difference between relative Council Tax levels in different areas. In the North it may be 0.7%-1% of house value per annum, whilst in wealthier areas around London it may be more like 0.25-0.5% of house value pa.

    If there is a boundary between such areas, I would expect an impact on prices in a transparent market with an interested popualtion - in those terms our market is best described as "murky" in that the information exists but needs to be dug out.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,185

    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    Too close to call for me
    Reform for me.

    Labour should have played the Trump card. Few Reform voters have realised yet the extent to which their Party is sponsored by the White House. Surprised the Tories didn't make more of this either.
    Both are too frightened to say much about Trump in case it gets back to the WH . Reform are arse lickers to Trump whose policies are causing economic harm to the UK should have been the message .
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,896
    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    Does anyone give a flying fcuk what moron gets on the gravy train.
    That's largely Topic #1 of this site for the last 20 years, I think?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,626

    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    I think Reform may just pull it off. But Labour will run them close!
    I think the opposite. Labour by not a lot, but abysmal Tory and LibDem votes, since 'their' voters will vote tactically against Reform . Green won't do quite as badly.

    Lovely morning here today; Atypical for market day in this small town.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,281
    @LadPolitics

    We're now 2/1 that Kemi Badenoch is replaced as Conservative Party leader this year.

    Robert Jenrick is the current 5/2 favourite to replace her

    https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/1917872531547066840
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,187

    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    Too close to call for me
    Reform for me.

    Labour should have played the Trump card. Few Reform voters have realised yet the extent to which their Party is sponsored by the White House. Surprised the Tories didn't make more of this either.
    Hard for Labour because the government has to deal with Trump, like him or not. Hard for the Conservatives who see the Republicans as their sister party (although whether that is requited...).
    The Republican party of Reagan, George HW Bush and John McCain's sister party was the Tories, the Republican party of Trump's sister party is Farage's Reform. Indeed most Tory voters would have voted for Harris polls showed last year, only Reform voters would mostly have voted for Trump
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,770
    malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    Does anyone give a flying fcuk what moron gets on the gravy train.
    It's called Political Bettin', you cretin!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,772
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Thread on the Ukraine agreement here (I assume it's correct ?):

    The agreement on the establishment of U.S.–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund was signed 🇺🇦🇺🇸

    🧵Key provisions of the Agreement:

    1️⃣ Full Ukrainian ownership and control.
    All resources on our territory and in our territorial waters remain the property of Ukraine. The Ukrainian state decides what and where to extract. Subsoil resources remain in Ukrainian ownership — this is enshrined in the agreement...



    6️⃣ The Fund will be filled only with income from new licenses.

    This refers to 50% of revenues from new licenses for critical materials, oil, and gas projects issued after the Fund’s creation. Revenues from current or previously budgeted projects are not included. The Agreement covers future strategic cooperation...

    https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1917822195969016226

    What's Ukraine's enforcement mechanism for breach of contract ?
    I can't prove it, but I surmise this would be like the previous ones where the initial "agreement" is assumptions and principles on a single sheet of paper, which will then be fleshed out.

    On the one hand, it suits Ukraine to string it out keeping the USA engaged whilst Russia continues to collapse, on the other the USA can't get anything practical done until the war stops in at least a sustainable pause.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,001
    Roger said:

    A nothing story from the Telegraph which could be turned into something racist and in jumps Leon dragging the usual three or four racist/faragist posters who get off on this sort of stuff.

    It's so boring........

    Et Bonjour, Roger
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,659
    Scott_xP said:

    @LadPolitics

    We're now 2/1 that Kemi Badenoch is replaced as Conservative Party leader this year.

    Robert Jenrick is the current 5/2 favourite to replace her

    https://x.com/LadPolitics/status/1917872531547066840

    It is easy to see why they might replace KB, but if they do so with Jenrick the Party has clearly learned nothing.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,772
    Sean_F said:

    Those ward-level projections for Politics UK are very interesting.

    The Conservatives are in the most trouble. They're getting hit by the Lib Dems in posh heartland areas, and by Reform in poorer heartland areas. The Lib Dems have a clear core vote of posh people. Reform are winning working, and lower-middle class people outside Core Cities. Labour have university seats, seats with lots of professional public sector workers, and areas with big BAME populations. It's honestly hard to see what section of the population the Conservatives are now appealing to. The 2019-24 government's approach, of focusing their appeal on retired people who favour high levels of immigration, has killed off their base.

    Labour are also in trouble. Reform are sweeping through their old heartlands (Durham, industrial Northumberland, Doncaster, Burnley, the Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, ex-mining, industrial areas). That in turn, suggests they'll sweep through South Wales, Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, next year. Labour are saved by their new heartlands (see above). Reform are simply sweeping up more support than UKIP ever did, and since nothing succeeds like success, they are coming over as a lot more professional.

    IMHO, Reform will take Runcorn fairly easily. People kick the government in by-elections.

    Thanks. Two questions (highlighted above):

    1 - Did you actually mean -"retired people who favour high levels of immigration". I have them as having pivoted to reactionaries under Sunak.

    2 - I see Greater Manchester as having become more like London in recent years - resurgence and media / tech industries and so on. So I see it as less fruitful ground for RefUK than say Liverpool or Oldham.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,001
    edited 9:32AM
    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is going on with 10cc's Dreadlock Holiday.

    How is it that this song hasn't been cancelled. Or the band. Are 10cc still a thing/alive/playing at the Shepherds Bush Empire next Friday?

    What the hell is going on.

    Edit: bloody hell they are playing Molesey in June as part of their UK tour.

    One of the greatest pop songs of all time, and the music video is amusing as well.
    For some reason, I listened to I Would do Anything for You (don't ask), and then let Amazon Music do its autoplay thing and it took the 80s rock/ballad route, rather than the rock n' roll route and up popped 10cc.
    I loved 10cc as a kid. Should re-listen perhaps. I miss the Britain that churned out this cool intellectual pop, them were the days.

    The theory was their name came from the precise volume of the average ejaculation. I have NO idea if this is true
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,511
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    It depends whether Runcornians consider themselves Liverpudlians or not. Having John Lennon Airport in a Faragist constituency would surely be an unbearable shame that few Liverpudlians would find tolerable.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,585
    edited 9:35AM
    Transgender women will no longer be able to play in women's football in England from 1 June, the Football Association has announced. https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cz01z4rdx4no
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,559
    Roger said:

    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    It depends whether Runcornians consider themselves Liverpudlians or not. Having John Lennon Airport in a Faragist constituency would surely be an unbearable shame that few Liverpudlians would find tolerable.
    Having an airport named after John Lennon is a mark of shame, all of its own.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,626
    edited 9:37AM
    O/t, but, just appeared on the BBC News site:
    "Transgender women will no longer be able to play in women's football in England from 1 June, the Football Association has announced.
    English football's governing body amended its rules last month, applying stricter eligibility criteria for transgender women to continue playing in women's football."

    I don't know.... does anyone ...... how many transgender men/women ARE playing football, but will we soon see Mens, Women's, and Transgender leagues?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,001
    MattW said:

    Sean_F said:

    Those ward-level projections for Politics UK are very interesting.

    The Conservatives are in the most trouble. They're getting hit by the Lib Dems in posh heartland areas, and by Reform in poorer heartland areas. The Lib Dems have a clear core vote of posh people. Reform are winning working, and lower-middle class people outside Core Cities. Labour have university seats, seats with lots of professional public sector workers, and areas with big BAME populations. It's honestly hard to see what section of the population the Conservatives are now appealing to. The 2019-24 government's approach, of focusing their appeal on retired people who favour high levels of immigration, has killed off their base.

    Labour are also in trouble. Reform are sweeping through their old heartlands (Durham, industrial Northumberland, Doncaster, Burnley, the Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, ex-mining, industrial areas). That in turn, suggests they'll sweep through South Wales, Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, next year. Labour are saved by their new heartlands (see above). Reform are simply sweeping up more support than UKIP ever did, and since nothing succeeds like success, they are coming over as a lot more professional.

    IMHO, Reform will take Runcorn fairly easily. People kick the government in by-elections.

    Thanks. Two questions (highlighted above):

    1 - Did you actually mean -"retired people who favour high levels of immigration". I have them as having pivoted to reactionaries under Sunak.

    2 - I see Greater Manchester as having become more like London in recent years - resurgence and media / tech industries and so on. So I see it as less fruitful ground for RefUK than say Liverpool or Oldham.
    It’s a joke. Concocted by @Sean_F and myself in the dog days of Sunak

    By that point we decided the Tory party had alienated literally every constituency - apart perhaps from “pensioners who favour mass immigration”
    - ie about 3 people
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,770
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Andy_JS said:

    TOPPING said:

    What on earth is going on with 10cc's Dreadlock Holiday.

    How is it that this song hasn't been cancelled. Or the band. Are 10cc still a thing/alive/playing at the Shepherds Bush Empire next Friday?

    What the hell is going on.

    Edit: bloody hell they are playing Molesey in June as part of their UK tour.

    One of the greatest pop songs of all time, and the music video is amusing as well.
    For some reason, I listened to I Would do Anything for You (don't ask), and then let Amazon Music do its autoplay thing and it took the 80s rock/ballad route, rather than the rock n' roll route and up popped 10cc.
    I loved 10cc as a kid. Should re-listen perhaps. I miss the Britain that churned out this cool intellectual pop, them were the days.

    The theory was their name came from the precise volume of the average ejaculation. I have NO idea if this is true
    Whenever I measured it (a long time ago, mind!), I never got more than 6cc!

    EDIT: Ooops!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,110
    edited 9:42AM
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    I am confident today is about ganging up on Reform, just like July 4th last year was. Conservatives against Reform gives Labour Runcorn. And, considering what number of votes Reform will get across the picture, not fair share mayors or councillors either.

    Labour and Conservatives won’t get their vote out, will poll low, and that will be the headlines media will run with.

    But for Reform or Greens to claim they are building all the time to something special will be classic fools gold. The era of politics before this one had libs/libdems as NOTA having good times going up a few lines on snakes and ladders board, then always the snake that takes them back to square one. In the case of Reform, with 70% of voters motivated to come out simply to vote against you, you’re going nowhere. You have a glass ceiling.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,001

    Transgender women will no longer be able to play in women's football in England from 1 June, the Football Association has announced. https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cz01z4rdx4no

    I still don’t know exactly what a “transgender woman” IS

    *briskly exits, before explosion*
  • glwglw Posts: 10,383

    Nigelb said:

    We should.

    In a major procurement move, at least one NATO country is reportedly attempting to acquire Ukraine's highly successful Delta battlefield management system.

    The Delta system is both accessible and feature-rich, enabling increased awareness and coordination across the joint force.

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1917401096420552832

    If there can be a lasting peace deal, I can see a load of Ukrainian tech start-ups get a boat load of funding. e.g. drones are so useful for so many tasks.
    I'm sure there is a lot of Ukrainian innovation but I also suspect that a lot of the new Ukrainian weapons originate elsewhere and in effect are operated undercover.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,772
    edited 9:45AM

    Transgender women will no longer be able to play in women's football in England from 1 June, the Football Association has announced. https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/articles/cz01z4rdx4no

    That's following Scotland from 2 days ago:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cj3xg4l7774o

    Stat for context: "There are 20 transgender women registered to play amateur football in England among the millions who play at that level." *

    In Scotland there were none.

    That can support either of the views. It is a very small issue that does not deserve the coverage and debate, or that it is a very small issue that can be managed case by case and is not worth instituting a "national ban".

    * To me that "millions who play at that (amateur) level" looks a bit exaggerated. According to the FA (says AI) there are 176,400 on their list.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 60,001

    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    I think today is about ganging up on Reform, just like July 4th last year was. Conservatives against Reform gives Labour Runcorn. And, considering what number of votes Reform will get across the picture, not many mayors or councillors either.

    Labour and Conservatives won’t get their vote out, will poll low, and that will be the headlines media will run with.

    But for Reform or Greens to claim they are building all the time to something special will be classic fools gold. The era of politics before this one had libs/libdems having good times going up a few lines on snakes and ladders board, then always the snake that takes them back to square one. In the case of Reform, with 70% of voters motivated to come out just to vote against you, you’re going nowhere. You have a glass ceiling.
    Tory voters are not “motivated to vote against Reform”. Polls show they rather like Farage
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,585
    edited 9:42AM
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    We should.

    In a major procurement move, at least one NATO country is reportedly attempting to acquire Ukraine's highly successful Delta battlefield management system.

    The Delta system is both accessible and feature-rich, enabling increased awareness and coordination across the joint force.

    https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/1917401096420552832

    If there can be a lasting peace deal, I can see a load of Ukrainian tech start-ups get a boat load of funding. e.g. drones are so useful for so many tasks.
    I'm sure there is a lot of Ukrainian innovation but I also suspect that a lot of the new Ukrainian weapons originate elsewhere and in effect are operated undercover.
    Not the drone stuff. They started off with DJIs, but swiftly moved to a model of making their own drones from kit components and then built all sorts of nifty functionality / uses. I doubt many people in Europe have such high levels of experience and use of them, where day in day out they are making these, adapting them and thinking of new ways to use them.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,831
    MattW said:

    Hmm.

    RFK Jr on measles: "The MMR vaccine contains a lot of aborted fetus debris."
    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1917748575267602924

    That is contemporaneous - not from years ago.

    That is bonkers. It's spelled "foetus".
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,386
    Andy_JS said:

    What's the PB consensus on who will win the Runcorn by-election? I'm undecided.

    Reform
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,559
    MattW said:

    Sean_F said:

    Those ward-level projections for Politics UK are very interesting.

    The Conservatives are in the most trouble. They're getting hit by the Lib Dems in posh heartland areas, and by Reform in poorer heartland areas. The Lib Dems have a clear core vote of posh people. Reform are winning working, and lower-middle class people outside Core Cities. Labour have university seats, seats with lots of professional public sector workers, and areas with big BAME populations. It's honestly hard to see what section of the population the Conservatives are now appealing to. The 2019-24 government's approach, of focusing their appeal on retired people who favour high levels of immigration, has killed off their base.

    Labour are also in trouble. Reform are sweeping through their old heartlands (Durham, industrial Northumberland, Doncaster, Burnley, the Lancashire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Staffordshire, ex-mining, industrial areas). That in turn, suggests they'll sweep through South Wales, Greater Manchester, South Yorkshire, next year. Labour are saved by their new heartlands (see above). Reform are simply sweeping up more support than UKIP ever did, and since nothing succeeds like success, they are coming over as a lot more professional.

    IMHO, Reform will take Runcorn fairly easily. People kick the government in by-elections.

    Thanks. Two questions (highlighted above):

    1 - Did you actually mean -"retired people who favour high levels of immigration". I have them as having pivoted to reactionaries under Sunak.

    2 - I see Greater Manchester as having become more like London in recent years - resurgence and media / tech industries and so on. So I see it as less fruitful ground for RefUK than say Liverpool or Oldham.
    The government pitched all its policies in favour of the retired, and that actually included the Boriswave of immigration. They wanted to admit a load of poorly-paid careworkers, among others.

    Manchester proper will remain solid for Labour, and the commuter belt will remain Conservative v Lib Dem, but places like Oldham (as you say), Bolton, Rochdale, Bury, Wigan should be very fertile ground for Reform.
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