Will Reform have at least 10 MPs when the next election is called? – politicalbetting.com

scampi25 said:

isam said:

NEW: Wes Streeting says that Labour politicians who used to argue “trans women are women” should have the “humility” to admit they were not right.

In what some may interpret as implied criticism of Keir Starmer, he tells @BenKentish: "Given some of the rough discourse we’ve had on these issues in recent years, I don’t think we lose anything by having a bit of humility to say, ‘Actually, I wish we’d listened.’"

https://x.com/pippacrerar/status/1915438046079570295?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Oh. I wonder who he can mean...

Politicians who use the Supreme Court verdict to row back on a previous commitment to the concept that trans women are women are beneath contempt. If you supported that position then the honest reaction is to seek a change in the law to reflect what you thought the position was in the first place.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

JD Vance visits the Vatican, the Pope dies.

JD Vance visits India, the whole subcontinent is on the verge of war.

Remember when we used to think Gordon Broon had the reverse midas-touch?

Nigelb said:

MaxPB said:

Can anyone explain to me why Russia would want peace if the US position is that they'll walk away from the whole thing and stop supporting Ukraine if talks fall through. Wouldn't Putin just stall and sabotage peace talks until America walks away. Indeed that's what's happening now.

Trump is such an absolute tool. We really need to get moving with independent European military support for Ukraine and defending our own borders.

There's a good article on how we might do that, here:

How Europe Can Deter Russia
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/north-america/how-europe-can-deter-russia

I approve of the argument that stationing large numbers of troops in Ukraine is probably an inefficient way of achieving the objective. While it would have the benefit of symbolism, and actual skin in the game, it wouldn't provide much in the way of military force that Ukraine doesn't already have.

This is a far more practical idea, though the last bit is critical:

..So what should Europe do, not only to deter future Russian threats to Ukraine but also to improve its ability to deter Russian aggression in the continent’s east and southeast? The answer is simple—Europe must organize what military planners call a “mass of maneuver” that can quickly deploy where it is needed. Europe cannot know in advance whether a refreshed Russia would renew attacks on Ukraine, move forward into Belarus, threaten Poland, or snarl at the Baltics. As a result, its officials must consolidate meaningful combat power that can intervene quickly wherever and whenever needed. That means they must stop distributing European military forces over the continent’s east and southeast simply as symbols of their commitment, linked to a U.S. cavalry that may no longer ride to the rescue. Rather, they must conceive of European military formations as scarce, expensive, and potentially lethal combat power, which can be deployed as a concentrated fist with the ability to fight independently, under either a NATO or an EU banner.

Contrary to what is widely believed, Europeans have most of the military wherewithal needed to create such a force. The question is whether they have the will...

Not so much a REFORGER, more an EFORGER so to speak

Gallowgate said:

I can’t see all the Newcastle seats going Reform. There is a lot of metropolitan liberal elite here.

I think if Reform look likely to win and Labour has a new leader some of their vote will regroup.

Burnham probably then Labour's last hope

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.

Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)

Is Mogg even standing in Hanham? That would be brave. I suspect the Labour collapse might go Green.

Of course he would if there is a by election and would comfortably win I suspect, Farage might not even put up a candidate as Mogg is basically Reform anyway

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.

Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)

My guess is that Reform will get 1-3 defectors and will win 3-5 byelections in the next four and a half years. Which would - I would note - only be a fifth of the likely number of byelections. And they're likely to win Runcorn, for a start. (Albeit, they have managed to carelessly misplace one of their MPs already. So we shouldn't discount the possibility that someone else ends up departing Reform.)

Perhaps but still even then not 10

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:

HYUFD said:

Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.

Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)

Come along HY - there (I would have said an ocean once ) is a veritable paddling pool of Tory MPs that'll suddenly find themselves persuaded by the Reform cause.

If Reform seem to be there, then they'll all go over.

I think, increasingly, that Badenoch might not be such a bad star to fight that fight.

Unless most polls were showing FON levels for Reform they wouldn't

(What does FON mean?)

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

Bet they don’t

They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..

What's happened today, Rog?

I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing

Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency

Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.

I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.

But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.

I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?

Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.

It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.

By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.

But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.

I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.

There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.

I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.

I have no intention of voting for Labour, no - my April's fool was a joke - but I genuinely think they are following the right electoral strategy for them. We've seen time and time again a clothes peg on your nose approach come election time drives votes to them when the alternative is letting in the Tories or Reform into office.

Btw, you need to get over your contrarian need to reflexively disagree with or attempt to refute everything I say on the basis that if I said it, it must be false or I'm up to something and you must challenge it.

I usually call it as I see it.

Well, we will see shortly in the May elections if Labour's Reform-lite policy works and whether LD and Green voters "hold their noses".

I don't think they will. It will be e very bad night for Labour, and very bad for the Tories too.

Low-stakes locals, though.

As for Labour voters going Lib Dem, it depends which voters where. If it's marginally Labour suburbia, it's a problem. If it's the former Blue Wall (mid Cambs, say) or the next layer (East Hampshire, for example), it doesn't really hurt Labour and it's awfully bad news for the Conservatives.

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.

Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)

Is Mogg even standing in Hanham? That would be brave. I suspect the Labour collapse might go Green.

Of course he would if there is a by election and would comfortably win I suspect, Farage might not even put up a candidate as Mogg is basically Reform anyway

Other than Johnson what other Conservative politician embodies everything everyone despises about the Tories?

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.

Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)

My guess is that Reform will get 1-3 defectors and will win 3-5 byelections in the next four and a half years. Which would - I would note - only be a fifth of the likely number of byelections. And they're likely to win Runcorn, for a start. (Albeit, they have managed to carelessly misplace one of their MPs already. So we shouldn't discount the possibility that someone else ends up departing Reform.)

Perhaps but still even then not 10

... but when added to the four they ha ve already...?

Omnium said:

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:

HYUFD said:

Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.

Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)

Come along HY - there (I would have said an ocean once ) is a veritable paddling pool of Tory MPs that'll suddenly find themselves persuaded by the Reform cause.

If Reform seem to be there, then they'll all go over.

I think, increasingly, that Badenoch might not be such a bad star to fight that fight.

Unless most polls were showing FON levels for Reform they wouldn't

(What does FON mean?)

Find Out Now, the pollster that keeps showing big leads for Reform?

PS What are FON doing differently from other pollsters?

rottenborough said:

For the love of god. Trump, when asked about what concessions so far that he has asked of Russia in these "peace" discussions, says that Russia has had to give up on taking the whole country.

"Pretty big concession"

He's forgiving of friends.

He genuinely thinks Ukraine being permitted to keep any territory is a concession, even with no additional guarantees.

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

Bet they don’t

They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..

What's happened today, Rog?

I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing

Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency

Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.

I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.

But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.

I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?

Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.

It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.

By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.

It's not working as you suggest though. According to Find Out Now, if there was an election today, Labour would get 2% of the Tory GE24 voters and 0% of the Reform vote. Throwing away a load of support on the assumption you can win them back in the election campaign is a brave strategy.

There's isn't an election today. And if there was voter behaviour would be different.


This isn't difficult. What this boils down to is you don't like what Labour are doing.

This is politicalbetting.com, aren't we allowed to talk about polls?

Yes, if you understand them.

I'm not going to descend to the gutter.

As an aside, I do like that expression, since some of us may start out in the gutter so can defend not 'descending' to it.

Cookie said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

The Tories’ biggest blunder is only now coming to light
Michael Gove must apologise for giving councils free rein to extort property owners
...
Thousands of people across Britain have been shocked to receive demands for double council tax on second properties under powers granted by Mr Gove that took effect in April.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/counting-cost-michael-gove-dreadful-mistake/ (£££)

I don't see why they shouldn't have the power to do so. It's just that in many cases doing so might not be what's best for the area.

It's not even Michael Gove's biggest blunder.

But those thousands of people form a pretty circular Venn diagram with what's left of the Telegraph's readership, and they really don't like paying tax.

HYUFD said:

rcs1000 said:

HYUFD said:

Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.

Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)

My guess is that Reform will get 1-3 defectors and will win 3-5 byelections in the next four and a half years. Which would - I would note - only be a fifth of the likely number of byelections. And they're likely to win Runcorn, for a start. (Albeit, they have managed to carelessly misplace one of their MPs already. So we shouldn't discount the possibility that someone else ends up departing Reform.)

Perhaps but still even then not 10

Errr:

In that scenario Reform would have 10 MPs by the time of the next General Election.

4 now
+
2 defectors
+
4 by-elections

Omnium said:

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:

HYUFD said:

Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.

Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)

Come along HY - there (I would have said an ocean once ) is a veritable paddling pool of Tory MPs that'll suddenly find themselves persuaded by the Reform cause.

If Reform seem to be there, then they'll all go over.

I think, increasingly, that Badenoch might not be such a bad star to fight that fight.

Unless most polls were showing FON levels for Reform they wouldn't

(What does FON mean?)

Find Out Now

rottenborough said:

Ed Krassenstein

@EdKrassen
Three new polls were just released and Trump's numbers are absolutely HORRIFIC!

https://x.com/EdKrassen/status/1915394043611062515


There's a whole load of 55-59% disapprovals in there from three different pollsters.

Don’t think he really cares to be honest

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

For the love of god. Trump, when asked about what concessions so far that he has asked of Russia in these "peace" discussions, says that Russia has had to give up on taking the whole country.

"Pretty big concession"

He's forgiving of friends.

He genuinely thinks Ukraine being permitted to keep any territory is a concession, even with no additional guarantees.

Does he even listen to a word from the military on the situation?

Maybe everything is now filtered through Hangoverseth?

Russia is on the ropes. the war economy cannot continue much longer. At best it is stalemate not a ceasefire in order to stop Vlad taking the rest of the country.

Omnium said:

Cookie said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

Bet they don’t

They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..

What's happened today, Rog?

I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing

Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency

Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.

I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.

But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.

I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?

Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.

It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.

By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.

But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.

I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.

There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.

I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.

I have no intention of voting for Labour, no - my April's fool was a joke - but I genuinely think they are following the right electoral strategy for them. We've seen time and time again a clothes peg on your nose approach come election time drives votes to them when the alternative is letting in the Tories or Reform into office.

Btw, you need to get over your contrarian need to reflexively disagree with or attempt to refute everything I say on the basis that if I said it, it must be false or I'm up to something and you must challenge it.

I usually call it as I see it.

Well, we will see shortly in the May elections if Labour's Reform-lite policy works and whether LD and Green voters "hold their noses".

I don't think they will. It will be e very bad night for Labour, and very bad for the Tories too.

The problem with tacking towards the Libs/Greens is that in places like Greater Manchester (outside Manchester itself) and County Durham, there aren't nearly enough of that sort of voter to overcome the Reform vote, and doing so drives up the Reform vote. From where I'm sitting, Labour's strategy, half-arsed though it is, seems the best bet.

The LDs are trying to hold off from attracting voters anyway. They've had popularity in the past and it hasn't really worked out.

Much the same for the Conservatives.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cookie said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

The Tories’ biggest blunder is only now coming to light
Michael Gove must apologise for giving councils free rein to extort property owners
...
Thousands of people across Britain have been shocked to receive demands for double council tax on second properties under powers granted by Mr Gove that took effect in April.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/counting-cost-michael-gove-dreadful-mistake/ (£££)

I don't see why they shouldn't have the power to do so. It's just that in many cases doing so might not be what's best for the area.

It's not even Michael Gove's biggest blunder.

But those thousands of people form a pretty circular Venn diagram with what's left of the Telegraph's readership, and they really don't like paying tax.

I seemed to remember we did this previously about Telegraph readership and their move to digital has actually been a quiet success. Now if the quality of what they write is any good is a different matter.

Charles Moore still writes well

Gallowgate said:

rottenborough said:

Ed Krassenstein

@EdKrassen
Three new polls were just released and Trump's numbers are absolutely HORRIFIC!

https://x.com/EdKrassen/status/1915394043611062515


There's a whole load of 55-59% disapprovals in there from three different pollsters.

Don’t think he really cares to be honest

He's rich, effectively immune from any criminal sanction even after he leaves office and can bend reality for his supporters on a whim, he need not care about anything.

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

(3/5)

I think Labour is pursuing a very deliberate strategy and within two years I think they will be ahead in the polls.

It's possible but Labour's fortunes aren't really in their own hands and are tied to what happens in America and with the global economy.

If Trump crashes America we all go down with him...

Omnium said:

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:

HYUFD said:

Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.

Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)

Come along HY - there (I would have said an ocean once ) is a veritable paddling pool of Tory MPs that'll suddenly find themselves persuaded by the Reform cause.

If Reform seem to be there, then they'll all go over.

I think, increasingly, that Badenoch might not be such a bad star to fight that fight.

Unless most polls were showing FON levels for Reform they wouldn't

(What does FON mean?)

Find Out Now

And what's their agenda? I feel I may need to know because it's 'now'.

Is it even a thing?

It’s short for FAFON. That’s what they’re hoping the electorate will try at the next GE.

rottenborough said:

Ed Krassenstein

@EdKrassen
Three new polls were just released and Trump's numbers are absolutely HORRIFIC!

https://x.com/EdKrassen/status/1915394043611062515


There's a whole load of 55-59% disapprovals in there from three different pollsters.

Trump has managed to hit Biden's approval numbers within three months of taking office.

Impressive.

What a shame there was no Special Election in the New York 21st District.

I am apparently voting in a referendum on a “neighbourhood plan” in May. Having looked at the documents, if I, as a politically engaged lawyer doesn’t understand what I am voting on, how is anyone else?

Foxy said:

Cookie said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

Bet they don’t

They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..

What's happened today, Rog?

I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing

Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency

Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.

I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.

But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.

I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?

Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.

It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.

By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.

But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.

I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.

There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.

I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.

I have no intention of voting for Labour, no - my April's fool was a joke - but I genuinely think they are following the right electoral strategy for them. We've seen time and time again a clothes peg on your nose approach come election time drives votes to them when the alternative is letting in the Tories or Reform into office.

Btw, you need to get over your contrarian need to reflexively disagree with or attempt to refute everything I say on the basis that if I said it, it must be false or I'm up to something and you must challenge it.

I usually call it as I see it.

Well, we will see shortly in the May elections if Labour's Reform-lite policy works and whether LD and Green voters "hold their noses".

I don't think they will. It will be e very bad night for Labour, and very bad for the Tories too.

The problem with tacking towards the Libs/Greens is that in places like Greater Manchester (outside Manchester itself) and County Durham, there aren't nearly enough of that sort of voter to overcome the Reform vote, and doing so drives up the Reform vote. From where I'm sitting, Labour's strategy, half-arsed though it is, seems the best bet.

Voters in Greater Manchester have further choices, including the obvious one of not voting. I think we will see very low turnout there, even compared to most local elections.

Very low as they aren't having elections this year.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Reform UK criticised for candidates' offensive posts

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz798wrd81jo

In other news, the new pope with be Catholic.

'The Reform UK leader said "hundreds of people who applied to be candidates for the county council elections were rejected... often because of repeated use of words beginning with F and C on social media."...

But Hope Not Hate, an anti-racism campaign group which has clashed with Farage in the past, said the examples it had found undermined his vetting claims.

On Thursday last week, the group published details of social media posts it had found from 14 different current Reform UK candidates...

The posts seen by the BBC include:

A Reform UK candidate saying "one big nuke bomb" should be used to remove Islam from the world

Another saying Bradford has a large Muslim population and is a "shithole"

Others promoting the conspiracy theory that Muslims are seeking to "supplant the native population" in the UK'

Omnium said:

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:

HYUFD said:

Omnium said:

HYUFD said:

Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.

Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)

Come along HY - there (I would have said an ocean once ) is a veritable paddling pool of Tory MPs that'll suddenly find themselves persuaded by the Reform cause.

If Reform seem to be there, then they'll all go over.

I think, increasingly, that Badenoch might not be such a bad star to fight that fight.

Unless most polls were showing FON levels for Reform they wouldn't

(What does FON mean?)

Find Out Now

And what's their agenda? I feel I may need to know because it's 'now'.

Is it even a thing?

Goodwin's agenda.

TimS said:

nico67 said:

Roger said:

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

Bet they don’t

They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..

What's happened today, Rog?

I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing

Wtf is she on. The public by a clear majority support a youth scheme and the next election is 4 years away. We have these schemes with other countries . Labour are turning into Reform lite .

She’s been captured by the home office blob. Institutionally incapable of looking beyond their narrow remit.

I'm not convinced that "captured by the blob" works as an explanation as often as people suggest. She's a politician. She's responsible for her choices.

rcs1000 said:

rottenborough said:

Ed Krassenstein

@EdKrassen
Three new polls were just released and Trump's numbers are absolutely HORRIFIC!

https://x.com/EdKrassen/status/1915394043611062515


There's a whole load of 55-59% disapprovals in there from three different pollsters.

Trump has managed to hit Biden's approval numbers within three months of taking office.

Impressive.

What a shame there was no Special Election in the New York 21st District.

I'm glad but at the same time exasperated. That he'd be a catastrophe on every level was obvious when they voted. Short of him wearing a giant badge saying "Danger. Malevolent Moron" I don't know how it could have been clearer.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Reform UK criticised for candidates' offensive posts

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz798wrd81jo

In other news, the new pope with be Catholic.

Say 'Hope Not Hate'.

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

(5/5)

Reform is going to crash and burn, mark my words. They will have an increasing number of liabilities especially after May.

In 2029 Labour will have put the budget into a surplus, will do a tax cut and ask "what would Reform and the Tories cut instead?".

Labour has a high chance of being re-elected.

And with that, fin.

"In 2029 Labour will have put the budget into a surplus,"

They are going to turn around a £150bn a year deficit in a 4 years with no austerity, all prediction of little growth for years to come and Orange Man like a bull in a china shop when it comes to effecting world trade...Brave prediction.

Its never going to happen. And they wouldn't need to in fairness, if people think things are under control.

TBH, we have all become so desensitized to the massive amount the UK government has been borrowing for 20 years that is all just noise, even as the amount making the interest payments eats up more and more of tax revenue.

The issue of course will only be solved by having strong growth in the economy, but outside of the US, Western economies have been struggling for many years with trying to find a way to achieve this.

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

Bet they don’t

They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..

What's happened today, Rog?

I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing

Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency

Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.

I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.

But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.

I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?

Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.

It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.

By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.

But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.

I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.

There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.

I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.

I have no intention of voting for Labour, no - my April's fool was a joke - but I genuinely think they are following the right electoral strategy for them. We've seen time and time again a clothes peg on your nose approach come election time drives votes to them when the alternative is letting in the Tories or Reform into office.

Btw, you need to get over your contrarian need to reflexively disagree with or attempt to refute everything I say on the basis that if I said it, it must be false or I'm up to something and you must challenge it.

I usually call it as I see it.

Well, we will see shortly in the May elections if Labour's Reform-lite policy works and whether LD and Green voters "hold their noses".

I don't think they will. It will be e very bad night for Labour, and very bad for the Tories too.

It won't show up in the locals. They will be used as a protest vote.

We both know that.

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

Bet they don’t

They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..

What's happened today, Rog?

I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing

Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency

Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.

I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.

But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.

I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?

Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.

It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.

By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.

But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.

I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.

There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.

I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.

I have no intention of voting for Labour, no - my April's fool was a joke - but I genuinely think they are following the right electoral strategy for them. We've seen time and time again a clothes peg on your nose approach come election time drives votes to them when the alternative is letting in the Tories or Reform into office.

Btw, you need to get over your contrarian need to reflexively disagree with or attempt to refute everything I say on the basis that if I said it, it must be false or I'm up to something and you must challenge it.

I usually call it as I see it.

Well, we will see shortly in the May elections if Labour's Reform-lite policy works and whether LD and Green voters "hold their noses".

I don't think they will. It will be e very bad night for Labour, and very bad for the Tories too.

It won't show up in the locals. They will be used as a protest vote.

We both know that.

Indeed and Electoral Calculus are forecasting Labour will come 4th winning even fewer council seats than the LDs next week.

Kemi will get some relief the Tories will still win most councillors despite losses (though if the councils which are postponing elections to become unitaries like Essex and Norfolk had held elections then Reform would have won most seats)
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

Bet they don’t

They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..

What's happened today, Rog?

I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing

Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency

Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.

I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.

But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.

I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?

Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.

It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.

By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.

It's not working as you suggest though. According to Find Out Now, if there was an election today, Labour would get 2% of the Tory GE24 voters and 0% of the Reform vote. Throwing away a load of support on the assumption you can win them back in the election campaign is a brave strategy.

There's isn't an election today. And if there was voter behaviour would be different.


This isn't difficult. What this boils down to is you don't like what Labour are doing.

This is politicalbetting.com, aren't we allowed to talk about polls?

Yes, if you understand them.

I'm not going to descend to the gutter. If I'm wrong show me why I'm wrong with evidence. As Foxy correctly said, according to this poll Labour are losing twice as many supporters to their left (Green and Lib Dems) than they are to their right (Con and Reform). We all know that the real election isn't for at least 3 years and more likely 4 and you might be right that the left side will decide to hold their nose, but it's a very dangerous assumption for the Labour leadership to take, it's the assumption the Tories made in 2024 and it bit them in the arse.

They were trying to fatten a pig on market day. With shitloads of baggage.

Labour are trying to create a track record in government that's centre-left economically, centrist socially and "competent" in execution so they are well-placed to win in 4 years time.

No, I'm not convinced yet either, but it's the right electoral strategy.

It could still go horribly wrong for Labour, and the media, PB.com and X despise the ground they walk on. I am not convinced Farage doesn't get spanked for his Trump adjacency when Trump crashes Planet Earth. If the Tories go one nation they have a decent hope. If they go Jenrick they have the same problems as Farage, but RefCon probably still cuts the mustard.

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cookie said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

The Tories’ biggest blunder is only now coming to light
Michael Gove must apologise for giving councils free rein to extort property owners
...
Thousands of people across Britain have been shocked to receive demands for double council tax on second properties under powers granted by Mr Gove that took effect in April.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/counting-cost-michael-gove-dreadful-mistake/ (£££)

I don't see why they shouldn't have the power to do so. It's just that in many cases doing so might not be what's best for the area.

It's not even Michael Gove's biggest blunder.

But those thousands of people form a pretty circular Venn diagram with what's left of the Telegraph's readership, and they really don't like paying tax.

I seemed to remember we did this previously about Telegraph readership and their move to digital has actually been a quiet success. Now if the quality of what they write is any good is a different matter.

Charles Moore still writes well

Did Leon use to write for the Telegraph before the Gazette waved their chequebook?

Mexicanpete said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

Bet they don’t

They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..

What's happened today, Rog?

I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing

Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency

Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.

I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.

But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.

I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?

Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.

It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.

By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.

It's not working as you suggest though. According to Find Out Now, if there was an election today, Labour would get 2% of the Tory GE24 voters and 0% of the Reform vote. Throwing away a load of support on the assumption you can win them back in the election campaign is a brave strategy.

There's isn't an election today. And if there was voter behaviour would be different.


This isn't difficult. What this boils down to is you don't like what Labour are doing.

This is politicalbetting.com, aren't we allowed to talk about polls?

Yes, if you understand them.

I'm not going to descend to the gutter. If I'm wrong show me why I'm wrong with evidence. As Foxy correctly said, according to this poll Labour are losing twice as many supporters to their left (Green and Lib Dems) than they are to their right (Con and Reform). We all know that the real election isn't for at least 3 years and more likely 4 and you might be right that the left side will decide to hold their nose, but it's a very dangerous assumption for the Labour leadership to take, it's the assumption the Tories made in 2024 and it bit them in the arse.

They were trying to fatten a pig on market day. With shitloads of baggage.

Labour are trying to create a track record in government that's centre-left economically, centrist socially and "competent" in execution so they are well-placed to win in 4 years time.

No, I'm not convinced yet either, but it's the right electoral strategy.

It could still go horribly wrong for Labour, and the media, PB.com and X despise the ground they walk on. I am not convinced Farage doesn't get spanked for his Trump adjacency when Trump crashes Planet Earth. If the Tories go one nation they have a decent hope. If they go Jenrick they have the same problems as Farage, but RefCon probably still cuts the mustard.

Basically the winner of 2029 general election is unknowable at this point.

It's a case of having to wait and see how things develop...

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

Unless there is a rush of by elections in redwall seats like Runcorn I can't see Reform getting 10 MPs.

Even the potential Somerset NE Hainham by elections looks more likely to go to Rees Mogg than Reform (albeit ideologically he is close to Farage anyway)

Is Mogg even standing in Hanham? That would be brave. I suspect the Labour collapse might go Green.

Of course he would if there is a by election and would comfortably win I suspect, Farage might not even put up a candidate as Mogg is basically Reform anyway

Other than Johnson what other Conservative politician embodies everything everyone despises about the Tories?

Johnson won the biggest Conservative majority since Thatcher and Mogg backed him to the end.

The people who despise Mogg and Johnson are voters like you who would mostly never vote Conservative anyway

And then Johnson spaffed all that goodwill up the wall. Both are parodies of ghosts of Conservative Parties past.

They are very much Conservative future for at least the next decade, if Kemi loses the next general election and assuming Farage isn't PM with Kemi his deputy then Jenrick and the Rees Mogg wing of the party will almost certainly take over the party leadership. Indeed Boris was a relative liberal compared to them or even Kemi

Pro_Rata said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Foxy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

Bet they don’t

They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..

What's happened today, Rog?

I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing

Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency

Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.

I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.

But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.

I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?

Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.

It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.

By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.

But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.

I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.

There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.

I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.

I have no intention of voting for Labour, no - my April's fool was a joke - but I genuinely think they are following the right electoral strategy for them. We've seen time and time again a clothes peg on your nose approach come election time drives votes to them when the alternative is letting in the Tories or Reform into office.

Btw, you need to get over your contrarian need to reflexively disagree with or attempt to refute everything I say on the basis that if I said it, it must be false or I'm up to something and you must challenge it.

I usually call it as I see it.

Well, we will see shortly in the May elections if Labour's Reform-lite policy works and whether LD and Green voters "hold their noses".

I don't think they will. It will be e very bad night for Labour, and very bad for the Tories too.

It won't show up in the locals. They will be used as a protest vote.

We both know that.

Labour are defending so few potential losses and challenging in so many possible gains, both from the poor prior position of 2021, that the protest will barely register. -100 would be a horrible night for Labour, -250 a relief for the Tories.

I don't quite see with the rate of Reform gains in council by elections (about 10% of candidates in 2025), where the better part of 500 Reform gains will come about. I reckon 2-300 will be closer to the mark. Which suggests Labour may be close to Reform in seat count,

Its all tipping point theory. The gap between 200 Reform gains and 500 could be only a few percent of national equivalent vote.

I think they'll not reach the sky high expectations but better thsn UKIP in 2013.

I'm mildly amused that one of the hole-digging Reform candidates is called Howard Rimmer. He might get head hunted by Trump for his mushroom farm. A natural complement for "Howard Nutlick".

Is another one an AI cat?

Quote:

SandyRentool said:

isam said:

Is John Rentoul a constant Keir critic now, or is he still considered a sensible centrist voice?

Uh oh. £2bn on carbon capture and storage? 1/2

https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1915427124653044019?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Rob Marris, Labour former MP for Wolverhampton SW, was in Commons Confidential newsletter yesterday 2/2




https://x.com/johnrentoul/status/1915427651604369884?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

"CCS does not work" is total bullshit.

*doesn't work economically*

Plus the 'storage' bit is completely unproven other than at small scale.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Stuartinromford said:

Cookie said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

The Tories’ biggest blunder is only now coming to light
Michael Gove must apologise for giving councils free rein to extort property owners
...
Thousands of people across Britain have been shocked to receive demands for double council tax on second properties under powers granted by Mr Gove that took effect in April.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/counting-cost-michael-gove-dreadful-mistake/ (£££)

I don't see why they shouldn't have the power to do so. It's just that in many cases doing so might not be what's best for the area.

It's not even Michael Gove's biggest blunder.

But those thousands of people form a pretty circular Venn diagram with what's left of the Telegraph's readership, and they really don't like paying tax.

I seemed to remember we did this previously about Telegraph readership and their move to digital has actually been a quiet success. Now if the quality of what they write is any good is a different matter.

Charles Moore still writes well

Did Leon use to write for the Telegraph before the Gazette waved their chequebook?

FrancisUrquhart said:

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

BatteryCorrectHorse said:

(5/5)

Reform is going to crash and burn, mark my words. They will have an increasing number of liabilities especially after May.

In 2029 Labour will have put the budget into a surplus, will do a tax cut and ask "what would Reform and the Tories cut instead?".

Labour has a high chance of being re-elected.

And with that, fin.

"In 2029 Labour will have put the budget into a surplus,"

They are going to turn around a £150bn a year deficit in a 4 years with no austerity, all prediction of little growth for years to come and Orange Man like a bull in a china shop when it comes to effecting world trade...Brave prediction.

Its never going to happen. And they wouldn't need to in fairness, if people think things are under control.

TBH, we have all become so desensitized to the massive amount the UK government has been borrowing for 20 years that is all just noise, even as the amount making the interest payments eats up more and more of tax revenue.

The issue of course will only be solved by having strong growth in the economy, but outside of the US, Western economies have been struggling for many years with trying to find a way to achieve this.

I went to a very interesting economics presentation today.

Total Managed Expenditure in the UK is 45% of GDP.

Since 1997 (when the statistics started so not a pop at Blair) UK government productivity has declined by 4%

That is a massive drag on the economy

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Reform UK criticised for candidates' offensive posts

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz798wrd81jo

In other news, the new pope with be Catholic.

'The Reform UK leader said "hundreds of people who applied to be candidates for the county council elections were rejected... often because of repeated use of words beginning with F and C on social media."...

But Hope Not Hate, an anti-racism campaign group which has clashed with Farage in the past, said the examples it had found undermined his vetting claims.

On Thursday last week, the group published details of social media posts it had found from 14 different current Reform UK candidates...

The posts seen by the BBC include:

A Reform UK candidate saying "one big nuke bomb" should be used to remove Islam from the world

Another saying Bradford has a large Muslim population and is a "shithole"

Others promoting the conspiracy theory that Muslims are seeking to "supplant the native population" in the UK'

So....its Reform policy to nuke Bradford?
Makes you think, doesn't it?

You might want to pull on that thread a bit

StillWaters said:

DavidL said:

HYUFD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Reform UK criticised for candidates' offensive posts

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz798wrd81jo

In other news, the new pope with be Catholic.

'The Reform UK leader said "hundreds of people who applied to be candidates for the county council elections were rejected... often because of repeated use of words beginning with F and C on social media."...

But Hope Not Hate, an anti-racism campaign group which has clashed with Farage in the past, said the examples it had found undermined his vetting claims.

On Thursday last week, the group published details of social media posts it had found from 14 different current Reform UK candidates...

The posts seen by the BBC include:

A Reform UK candidate saying "one big nuke bomb" should be used to remove Islam from the world

Another saying Bradford has a large Muslim population and is a "shithole"

Others promoting the conspiracy theory that Muslims are seeking to "supplant the native population" in the UK'

So....its Reform policy to nuke Bradford?
Makes you think, doesn't it?

You might want to pull on that thread a bit

Which reminds me - for some reason they are making a TV series of 'Threads'.

https://www.radiotimes.com/tv/drama/threads-film-tv-reboot-confirmed-adolescence-newsupdate/

"As Netflix hit Adolescence continues to make waves and potentially inspire policy, the team behind it has turned its attention to a new impactful project – a Threads reboot.

Warp Films has confirmed it will be turning the BBC's pivotal TV film into a series. For those unfamiliar, Threads aired on BBC Two in 1984 and depicted the devastating effects of a fictional nuclear apocalypse.

Mark Herbert, founder and chief exec of Warp, said: “Threads was, and remains, an unflinchingly honest drama that imagines the devastating effects of nuclear conflict on ordinary people. This story aligns perfectly with our ethos of telling powerful, grounded narratives that deeply connect with audiences."

Warp have a decent track record - but I'm still puzzled as to why 'reboot' Threads. A TV version of something like 'The Kraken Wakes' seems much more interesting.

On a slightly more serious note, the dodgy Reform candidates to have hit the media seem to be from Doncaster, County Durham, vaguely Yorkshire-NE type of area. as far as I can see.

That makes me wonder if there are batches from other regions on the way.

If it's only 10 or so, I'd say the party can ride that out.

But if there are suddenly 50-100, that will be more interesting, and more of a challenge for the credibility of the Best of Breed vetting process.

kle4 said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

DM_Andy said:

Casino_Royale said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

GIN1138 said:

Roger said:

MustaphaMondeo said:

Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

Bet they don’t

They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..

What's happened today, Rog?

I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing

Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency

Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.

I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.

But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.

I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?

Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.

It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.

By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.

It's not working as you suggest though. According to Find Out Now, if there was an election today, Labour would get 2% of the Tory GE24 voters and 0% of the Reform vote. Throwing away a load of support on the assumption you can win them back in the election campaign is a brave strategy.

There's isn't an election today. And if there was voter behaviour would be different.


This isn't difficult. What this boils down to is you don't like what Labour are doing.

This is politicalbetting.com, aren't we allowed to talk about polls?

Yes, if you understand them.

I'm not going to descend to the gutter.

As an aside, I do like that expression, since some of us may start out in the gutter so can defend not 'descending' to it.

But some of us are looking up at the stars.

@carlquintanilla.bsky.social‬

Trump, asked about China’s denial of trade talks:

“Well, they had a meeting this morning.”

Reporter: “Who's they?”

Trump: “I can't tell you. It doesn't matter who ‘they’ is.”

https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3lnle7dtpxk2a

DecrepiterJohnL said:

The Tories’ biggest blunder is only now coming to light
Michael Gove must apologise for giving councils free rein to extort property owners
...
Thousands of people across Britain have been shocked to receive demands for double council tax on second properties under powers granted by Mr Gove that took effect in April.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/property/counting-cost-michael-gove-dreadful-mistake/ (£££)

I think the Telegraph is over-reaching a little here.

The claimed total of "chargeable properties" is 280k, which is about 1% of Housing Stock.

As the article puts it:

Dozens of readers have been in touch to complain of exorbitant bills being issued on inherited family homes or properties that are used every week for work.

Dozens? It's the end of the world.

Then they spiral off into "but but but empty homes", when the UK is actually very good at keeping these down.