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Will Reform have at least 10 MPs when the next election is called? – politicalbetting.com

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  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,688
    Oh, look, another radical right politician is corrupt. Ron DeSantis, his wife and $10 million dollars where it shouldn't be: https://www.npr.org/2025/04/24/nx-s1-5368535/ron-desantis-florida-governor-political-scandal
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,867
    Not the most flattering photo...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,287
    edited April 24

    viewcode said:

    Cookie said:

    Nigelb said:

    Calling it now, my prediction is that AOC gets the nomination.

    No one else - other than perhaps Pete B - is even making the effort right now.

    Do not let them trick you into thinking we are enemies.

    Do not let them trick you into thinking that we can be separated into rural and urban, Black and white and Latino.

    We are one.

    https://x.com/TeamAOC/status/1915081171513286942

    Whether or not that's a good thing, I'll let you know.

    Blimey.

    That's a call and a half.

    Primaries are at least two years away and that's if there's actually going to be normal POTUS election.

    But yeh AOC is making the running and maybe that will be enough to keep a primary lead from now until March 2028.

    Fair play to her, at least someone is taking the fight to the subtards.
    Kamala lost because she was seen as extreme. Surely they're not going to.go for AOC?
    Ed Miliband was replaced by Jeremy Corbyn. Who nearly won. And I contend that if John McDonnell had won the leadership in 2015 and Bernie had won the Dem nomination in 2016, they would both have won the upcoming elections. When centrist politicians lose elections, the only thing left is the crazies.
    If by "nearly won", you mean JC was 2 million votes and 55 seats behind Theresa May?
    Yes.

    Corbyn 2017: 12,877,918 votes
    Starmer 2024: 9,708,716 votes
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    GIN1138 said:

    Not the most flattering photo...
    Could have been @TSE 's famous snap though.

  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,236
    GIN1138 said:

    Not the most flattering photo...
    Hope the photographer enjoys El Salvadoran prison food.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,366
    edited April 24
    More details about Hegseth's use of Signal.

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had an internet connection that bypassed the Pentagon’s security protocols set up in his office to use the Signal messaging app on a personal computer, two people familiar with the line told The Associated Press.

    The existence of the unsecured internet connection is the latest revelation about Hegseth’s use of the unclassified app and raises the possibility that sensitive defense information could have been put at risk of potential hacking or surveillance.

    https://apnews.com/article/hegseth-signal-chat-dirty-internet-line-6a64707f10ca553eb905e5a70e10bd9d

    Next thing we know he'll be reported to have been downloading "MP3s" from LimeWire.


  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,488
    edited April 24
    glw said:

    More details about Hegseth's use of Signal.

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had an internet connection that bypassed the Pentagon’s security protocols set up in his office to use the Signal messaging app on a personal computer, two people familiar with the line told The Associated Press.

    The existence of the unsecured internet connection is the latest revelation about Hegseth’s use of the unclassified app and raises the possibility that sensitive defense information could have been put at risk of potential hacking or surveillance.

    https://apnews.com/article/hegseth-signal-chat-dirty-internet-line-6a64707f10ca553eb905e5a70e10bd9d

    Next thing we know he'll be reported to have been downloading "MP3s" from LimeWire.


    To top of it all off we find it also uses one of those VPN services that are constantly advertised online, some of which have shall we say opaque ownership that if you do some digging have some very interesting histories.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,796
    kinabalu said:

    Pagan2 said:

    (3/5)

    I think Labour is pursuing a very deliberate strategy and within two years I think they will be ahead in the polls.

    You also thought Corbyn would make a good pm, might I suggest your prognostications are somewhat dubious
    That was never tested.
    Well I guess you could think Corbyn would have been a good pm its certainly a view, injecting bleach to cure covid was also a view and probably less harmful
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,170
    glw said:

    More details about Hegseth's use of Signal.

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had an internet connection that bypassed the Pentagon’s security protocols set up in his office to use the Signal messaging app on a personal computer, two people familiar with the line told The Associated Press.

    The existence of the unsecured internet connection is the latest revelation about Hegseth’s use of the unclassified app and raises the possibility that sensitive defense information could have been put at risk of potential hacking or surveillance.

    https://apnews.com/article/hegseth-signal-chat-dirty-internet-line-6a64707f10ca553eb905e5a70e10bd9d

    Next thing we know he'll be reported to have been downloading "MP3s" from LimeWire.


    Sk8erBoi.exe
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    Yep. What one or two of us on PB have said since the moment it happened.



    Aaron Bastani
    @AaronBastani

    Top day in Runcorn & Helsby. NOTHING beats getting out & talking to people.

    If I was Reform I’d be very optimistic. But here’s the thing: even Labour voters in the seat had nothing positive to say about Starmer.

    Winter Fuel Allowance cuts = stupidest own goal I’ve EVER seen.

    https://x.com/AaronBastani/status/1915500059866657198
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,287

    WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧
    @WarMonitor3
    Fighting has erupted between Indian and Pakistani forces in the Leepa Valley of the Kashmir region light and heavy weaponry is used.

    https://youtu.be/r3BO6GP9NMY
    Some of you may recall a rather nice little film, about an exercise in London concerning a war between India and Pakistan. It was called "War Book" and the trailer is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_vr6KALYrY
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,111
    @yashar

    Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth threatened top US Military officials with polygraphs as the Pentagon devolved into chaos and Hegseth was angered by leaks.

    "I'll hook you up to a F**king polygraph!" Hegseth shouted at Admiral Christopher Grady, the then-acting Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

    He also threatened Lt. Gen. Doug Sims, the Joint Staff director, with a polygraph.

    Personnel with access to certain classified programs are required to undergo a polygraph both for initial clearance and for periodic reinvestigations, but it’s an indication of Hegseth’s state of mind that he’s sitting there saying, “I’ll hook you up to a fucking polygraph,” to the acting Chairman of the Joint Chiefs.

    https://x.com/yashar/status/1915523050398757172
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,659
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Cookie said:

    Nigelb said:

    Calling it now, my prediction is that AOC gets the nomination.

    No one else - other than perhaps Pete B - is even making the effort right now.

    Do not let them trick you into thinking we are enemies.

    Do not let them trick you into thinking that we can be separated into rural and urban, Black and white and Latino.

    We are one.

    https://x.com/TeamAOC/status/1915081171513286942

    Whether or not that's a good thing, I'll let you know.

    Blimey.

    That's a call and a half.

    Primaries are at least two years away and that's if there's actually going to be normal POTUS election.

    But yeh AOC is making the running and maybe that will be enough to keep a primary lead from now until March 2028.

    Fair play to her, at least someone is taking the fight to the subtards.
    Kamala lost because she was seen as extreme. Surely they're not going to.go for AOC?
    Ed Miliband was replaced by Jeremy Corbyn. Who nearly won. And I contend that if John McDonnell had won the leadership in 2015 and Bernie had won the Dem nomination in 2016, they would both have won the upcoming elections. When centrist politicians lose elections, the only thing left is the crazies.
    If by "nearly won", you mean JC was 2 million votes and 55 seats behind Theresa May?
    Yes.

    Corbyn 2017: 12,877,918 votes
    Starmer 2024: 9,708,716 votes
    But Theresa May in 2017 got 13,636,684 votes.

    Seats:
    TMay 317
    JC 262
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530

    ‪David Frum‬
    @davidfrum.bsky.social‬

    It doesn't matter what the rest of the sentence says, the opening 10 words in themselves are the scandal:

    "President Trump on Thursday directed the Justice Department to investigate ... "
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,838
    edited April 24


    ‪David Frum‬
    @davidfrum.bsky.social‬

    It doesn't matter what the rest of the sentence says, the opening 10 words in themselves are the scandal:

    "President Trump on Thursday directed the Justice Department to investigate ... "

    Google “President Obama directed the Justice Department”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/15/upshot/ferguson-drama-another-example-of-obamas-shrinking-bully-pulpit.html

    "Obama accordingly noted today that he had directed the Justice Department to investigate the shooting in Ferguson..."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,659
    carnforth said:

    Jumpscare that. I must give up drinking.
    I picked the wrong week to give up trainspotting.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,659


    ‪David Frum‬
    @davidfrum.bsky.social‬

    It doesn't matter what the rest of the sentence says, the opening 10 words in themselves are the scandal:

    "President Trump on Thursday directed the Justice Department to investigate ... "

    Google “President Obama directed the Justice Department”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/15/upshot/ferguson-drama-another-example-of-obamas-shrinking-bully-pulpit.html

    "Obama accordingly noted today that he had directed the Justice Department to investigate the shooting in Ferguson..."
    "What about..."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,530
    I suppose I shouldn't be surprised but at one end of the US Cabinet table RFK is trying to remove what he calls unhealthy and dangerous additives from food and at the the other end they are trying to talk UK into a free trade deal with hormone beef and so on.

    Hmm...

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,488


    ‪David Frum‬
    @davidfrum.bsky.social‬

    It doesn't matter what the rest of the sentence says, the opening 10 words in themselves are the scandal:

    "President Trump on Thursday directed the Justice Department to investigate ... "

    Google “President Obama directed the Justice Department”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/15/upshot/ferguson-drama-another-example-of-obamas-shrinking-bully-pulpit.html

    "Obama accordingly noted today that he had directed the Justice Department to investigate the shooting in Ferguson..."
    "What about..."
    a nice game of global thermonuclear war?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,659


    ‪David Frum‬
    @davidfrum.bsky.social‬

    It doesn't matter what the rest of the sentence says, the opening 10 words in themselves are the scandal:

    "President Trump on Thursday directed the Justice Department to investigate ... "

    Google “President Obama directed the Justice Department”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/15/upshot/ferguson-drama-another-example-of-obamas-shrinking-bully-pulpit.html

    "Obama accordingly noted today that he had directed the Justice Department to investigate the shooting in Ferguson..."
    "What about..."
    a nice game of global thermonuclear war?
    No, no, no.

    The line in "Wargames" was:

    "How about..."

    And also:

    "Wouldn't you prefer..."
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,287
    Dermabrasion has largely been replaced by less invasive and more precise skin resurfacing techniques such as:
    • Microdermabrasion – A gentler, non-invasive procedure that exfoliates the skin using fine crystals or a diamond-tipped wand.
    • Laser Resurfacing – Uses laser technology to remove damaged skin layers and stimulate collagen production.
    • Chemical Peels – Involves applying a chemical solution to exfoliate and rejuvenate the skin.
    • Fractional Resurfacing – A combination of fractional laser treatments and dermabrasion techniques to improve skin texture and appearance.
    These newer methods tend to have fewer side effects and shorter recovery times compared to traditional dermabrasion.


  • Nigelb said:

    Hello from Sheffield. I've spent a couple of days in Ghent. Brilliant city! And the brilliance of Eurotunnel - makes getting to and from mainland Europe a doddle.

    Ghent looks amazing.
    It's a fantastic city to visit. Far superior to Bruges these days.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,236
    kinabalu said:

    DM_Andy said:

    For fans of grinding bouts of safeties, the Selby v Woollaston match is right up your street.

    Yep. One for the purist.
    Absolutely, I enjoyed that last frame in particular.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,384

    glw said:

    More details about Hegseth's use of Signal.

    WASHINGTON (AP) — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had an internet connection that bypassed the Pentagon’s security protocols set up in his office to use the Signal messaging app on a personal computer, two people familiar with the line told The Associated Press.

    The existence of the unsecured internet connection is the latest revelation about Hegseth’s use of the unclassified app and raises the possibility that sensitive defense information could have been put at risk of potential hacking or surveillance.

    https://apnews.com/article/hegseth-signal-chat-dirty-internet-line-6a64707f10ca553eb905e5a70e10bd9d

    Next thing we know he'll be reported to have been downloading "MP3s" from LimeWire.


    To top of it all off we find it also uses one of those VPN services that are constantly advertised online, some of which have shall we say opaque ownership that if you do some digging have some very interesting histories.
    Oh, anyone who uses those VPN services is itching to get their personal information stolen. If you really do want to hide your IP address, or to securely browse the internet when connected to open Wifi... well, can I suggest Tailscale?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,506
    edited April 24

    I suppose I shouldn't be surprised but at one end of the US Cabinet table RFK is trying to remove what he calls unhealthy and dangerous additives from food and at the the other end they are trying to talk UK into a free trade deal with hormone beef and so on.

    Hmm...

    So much hysteria about chlorinated chicken and hormone-treated beef. There's actually more oestrogen in an egg than there is in 10 kg of steroid treated beef.

    I've lived in America for a couple of years, and been to Australia for a few times, and by the EU's moronic arguments, should have either grown tits or died several times already (if somehow I missed the urban gangs and mass shootings). And yet here I am, still breathing and afaics breast free. And I couldn't help noticing that most Americans I met were breathing and about half were sans tits. So either I'm very lucky or the food scares are hysterical bollocks promoted by farmers terrified of facing better, cheaper products.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    flanner2 said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Roger said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Roger said:

    Taking it in turns to crash the economy is only fair.


    The level of dislocation in our political class is bizarre.
    I suggested the Tories chose PR. They didn’t.
    Now I’m suggesting it to Labour.

    Bet they don’t

    They won't now that they know the voters are quite capable of doing their own PR. It's a simple 'who would you like least and how do I stop them'. it worked last time.

    I had a damascene conversion at 1.20 today and realised that I don't really like Labour and am now a Lib Dem. I'd still vote Labour to stop Farage's mob but fortunately so would most sane voters. Sometimes Labour can be really dislikable and today was one of those days..
    What's happened today, Rog? :open_mouth:
    I heard Yvette Cooper being interviewed and in content it could have been Kemi. She didn't even want to allow under 30's simple access to the EU for a short time even though the EU were willing. I found it extraordinary and embarrassing
    Maybe she is running scared of Reform in her constituency
    Labour have a choice: triangulate, or do what they believe and be out of office in 4 years.

    I think they spent the first 6 months doing the latter, and then realised they were on a hiding to nothing, so pivoted.
    But triangulating also means being out of office in 2029. The relative vote shares of Reform/Conservative and Lab/LD/Green are reasonably stable but while Reform are potentially moving ahead of the Tories, Labour are leaking support to the Lib Dems and the Greens.

    I know I'm not in the market for whatever Starmer's offering but why would someone who wants Reform policies accept Labour's watered down version instead?
    Well, precisely. You're not in the market for it and you struggle to understand anyone else who would be.

    It will help Labour hang onto its key marginals, without sacrificing many safe seats, so it's the optimum political strategy for it retaining office.

    By election time it will be: do you want us or the Tories/Reform? And they will point to some red meat, like VAT on school fees, to rally the base.
    But Labour are losing twice as many voters to LDs and Greens than they are to Reform. They hope that the Reform switchers will be put off while the LD and Green switchers will return.

    I don't think that the case. Their Reform-lite policies are not winning back voters but are accelerating the losses to the left. I expect this is exactly what we will see in the elections in May.

    There is a point where a highly efficient vote such as Labour 24 becomes highly inefficient like the SDP in 1983, or Reform in 2024. We may well have passed that threshold and be looking at a Labour melt down.

    I suspect you actually think the same and are cheerleeding Labour's suicide with no intention of voting for them.
    I have no intention of voting for Labour, no - my April's fool was a joke - but I genuinely think they are following the right electoral strategy for them. We've seen time and time again a clothes peg on your nose approach come election time drives votes to them when the alternative is letting in the Tories or Reform into office.

    Btw, you need to get over your contrarian need to reflexively disagree with or attempt to refute everything I say on the basis that if I said it, it must be false or I'm up to something and you must challenge it.

    I usually call it as I see it.
    Well, we will see shortly in the May elections if Labour's Reform-lite policy works and whether LD and Green voters "hold their noses".

    I don't think they will. It will be e very bad night for Labour, and very bad for the Tories too.
    It won't show up in the locals. They will be used as a protest vote.

    We both know that.
    Labour are defending so few potential losses and challenging in so many possible gains, both from the poor prior position of 2021, that the protest will barely register. -100 would be a horrible night for Labour, -250 a relief for the Tories.

    I don't quite see with the rate of Reform gains in council by elections (about 10% of candidates in 2025), where the better part of 500 Reform gains will come about. I reckon 2-300 will be closer to the mark. Which suggests Labour may be close to Reform in seat count, whilst Tories may overperform predictions at least Vs Reform.

    Of course, Runcorn could well take the media attention and that is tctc if Reform overperform proportional swing with some tactical Tory votes.
    Given that we are less than a year from the last General Election, I am wondering whether there will be an extremely low turnout on 1st May, and whether voters will cast their votes based on their council’s performance, rather than on national issues. If so, there could be some unexpected results.
    Do you really believe County Council elections are EVER run on national issues? In 60 years of campaigning, I can't remember a single occasion when local elections were ever decided on anything other than local issues
    It happens all the time.

    Oh sure, the parties will usually focus on local issues (though not exclusively), but there's a reason governments are generally expected to lose seats and councils, and it isn't because their party magically becomes worse at local governance when they are in power nationally. It was unusual for example that Corbyn was not able to make big gains in opposition.

    What's the explanation for such trends if not that local elections are often decided on national issues?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    eek said:

    Rubio: "This war is endable. Both sides just have to agree to it."


    Fuck me. He is Metternich reborn. A diplomat for the ages.


    Except Putin isn't in a position to do so and Ukraine isn't going to give up Crimea unless it has to.
    They'd need something really big for that (if even possible) even though its de facto gone, but Trump appears insistent Ukraine give up so much for so little. Its actively malevolent not mere disinterest.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,488
    edited 2:10AM
    Kogan close to being named new football regulator

    Sports media rights executive David Kogan is close to being named as the government's preferred choice as chair of the English football's new independent regulator.

    ...It may therefore concern the EFL that he was the Premier League's media rights advisor from 1998 to 2015. He also has close links to the Labour party, having written two books about them, and having made a number of donations to the party's candidates.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cgm8e18dg2yo
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,488
    Consumer confidence in the UK has fallen to the lowest level for more than a year amid concern that Donald Trump’s trade wars could further drive up living costs for British households.

    The latest barometer of sentiment from the data company GfK fell in April to its lowest level since November 2023, as a combination of domestic tax increases, rising bills, and worries over the US president’s tariffs weighed on consumers.

    The consumer confidence index, which the government and the Bank of England have closely monitored for early warning signs from the economy since the early 1970s, fell by four points to -23.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2025/apr/25/uk-consumer-confidence-index-gfk-tariffs-living-costs
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,488
    edited 2:16AM
    Donald Trump’s online store is selling clothing emblazoned “Trump 2028”, the year of the next US presidential election, in which the Republican is constitutionally banned from running.

    The shop is also selling T-shirts in navy and red, priced at $36, which read “Trump 2028 (Rewrite the Rules).”

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/25/donald-trump-2028-merchandise-online-store

    I have never bothered to look at his online store, but bloody hell, is there nothing he doesn't stick his name on and flog. It is an incredibly professional looking eCommerce site. I presume prices are up what with tariffs.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,488
    Zeekr 007 drives autonomously to the charging station, robotic charging arm plugs in, within seconds it’s charging at over 350kW meaning a 10 to 80 per cent charge in 10 minutes - the Zeekr 007 has a range of over 400 miles

    https://x.com/SteveFowler/status/1915351091098636328
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,716
    edited 2:48AM

    Zeekr 007 drives autonomously to the charging station, robotic charging arm plugs in, within seconds it’s charging at over 350kW meaning a 10 to 80 per cent charge in 10 minutes - the Zeekr 007 has a range of over 400 miles

    https://x.com/SteveFowler/status/1915351091098636328

    The much bigger story is that CATL is introducing a sodium battery into mass production.
    Which will be much cheaper (and safer) than lithium batteries, and not resource constrained like lithium.

    We are in danger of China doing with battery manufacturing what they did with solar.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,488
    Nigelb said:


    Zeekr 007 drives autonomously to the charging station, robotic charging arm plugs in, within seconds it’s charging at over 350kW meaning a 10 to 80 per cent charge in 10 minutes - the Zeekr 007 has a range of over 400 miles

    https://x.com/SteveFowler/status/1915351091098636328

    The much bigger story is that CATL is introducing a sodium battery into mass production.
    Which will be much cheaper (and safer) than lithium batteries, and not resource constrained like lithium.

    We are in danger of China doing with battery manufacturing what they did with solar.
    Is that even up for debate at this point?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,716
    But Hillary's emails, eh, william ?

    Hegseth had an unsecured internet line set up in his office to connect to Signal, AP sources say
    https://apnews.com/article/hegseth-signal-chat-dirty-internet-line-6a64707f10ca553eb905e5a70e10bd9d
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,360
    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JD Vance visits the Vatican, the Pope dies.

    JD Vance visits India, the whole subcontinent is on the verge of war.

    Remember when we used to think Gordon Broon had the reverse midas-touch?
    Regarding Gordo, I think I have solved a minor mystery.

    The strange gulping thing is possibly a result of vocal coaching.

    I've been taking a few singing lessons .. and the technique for taking a breath is ideally with an open throat as though you were vocalising 'o'.
    He's just not very good at it.
    I could probably do with a few singing lessons.

    When my son was seriously ill this time last year, a paramedic asked him how bad the pain was, on a scale of one to ten, where ten was the worst pain imaginable. My son replied: "So ten is my dad singing?" :)
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