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Not the polling Labour need with next week’s elections coming up – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • isamisam Posts: 41,341

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I really don't see Vance that way, but the people who I do see promote that kind of fitness are Andrew Huberman, Joe de Sena, Rich Roll etc as well as loads of accounts on X that may as well be bots for all I know. Rich Roll is a tee total, vegan, endurance runner so I don't think he fits the weight lifting stereotype. Stoicism plays a big part in all of this as well, "the daily stoic" is an instagram account that Chris Foy talks about regarding his battle with stage 4 cancer. But I feel it's all mixed in with a kind of Jordan Peterson outlook of "be a man, stop complaining, get on with it" which is opposed to what centrist/left/human rights types have been teaching for the last few decades
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    dixiedean said:

    The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.

    I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.

    I want them to win control of a few councils.
    They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then.
    Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
    Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.

    RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
    The problem for Reform is what happens if they do win seats but not enough to win majority control of councils.

    They could well "carp from the sidelines" and not go into administration with any other group and that's their right but it will lay them open to the charge of not being serious about power.

    The other option is to get their hands dirty - will they support Conservative minority administrations, Labour minority administrations, Lib Dem minority administrations, Green minority administrations etc? If they choose to get involved, they will have to deal with responsibility and accountability (fine) but it will also impact on the national agenda - if Reform are working with Labour on this council, could they work with Labour nationally?

    We see in Germany it's possible for parties to work at Land level in a different way to Federal level but we don't think in those terms (our fault).
    That's the ideal position for them. They can promise the Moon on a stick, if only they had majority control.

    I expect they'll gain a majority in three or four councils, and perhaps win a mayoralty.
    They might have happen to them what happened to the Greens in Brighton - people are keener on the theory than the practice and buyers' regret swiftly follows....
    Did it though? Green politicians still do remarkably well in Brighton, I think?
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,324

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    Is Vance much of a muscle man himself? He the pie-faced look of a soon-to-be plumpster to me.
    Ex-USMC (even if he was a fobbit) so he was reasonably fit at one time.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.

    I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.

    I want them to win control of a few councils.
    They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then.
    Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
    Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.

    RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
    Yes, I think their local organisation rather lacking, but the Reform voters are motivated "to send a message", so I think will get a decent turn out. I don't think it will be well targeted, but with both Lab and Con doing the dead parrot act, it is likely that they will win a lot of seats, often with paper candidates that have little or no profile in their seats, or understanding of local government.

    These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
    I hear Reform are paying for leaflet deliveries down here in Devon. Don't know how widespread that is, but they are going to be bleeding money if that is anything like common practice.

    Do we have any Reform foot soldiers who post here? Don't recall them if so. Given how large their membership is supposed to be, rather odd that a party on the cusp of power doesn't have any active member presence on the country's pre-eminent politics site.
    I have a council by-election in an otherwise suspended election and can't remember any leaflets, just a copy of the normal Lib Dem and Tory newsletters. Reform are standing, but haven't seen or heard anything of them. Having said that, it is a pretty safe LD seat
    Quite a vigorous Reform effort in terms of leaflets in the two wards in Oxfordshire that I'm working in (no idea if they're paid deliveries or volunteers), and a good many classically floating voters I think (hard to be sure as the response is typically "not you") inclined to give them a try as they've tried everyone else. Farage spoke at a well-attended meeting in another ward. It's quite a decent effort from a new party and I'd expect them to emerge with a decent share of votes and seats but they're doing very little actual canvassing. The Tories hold both seats and are finally getting leaflets out and doing a bit of canvassing, but it's hard to see them holding the seats. Overall I expect a good Reform night, a bad Tory one and Labour more or less marking time, except where there are defectors (e.g. Broxtowe, where the whole established Labour team has been ejected).
    I've been getting two different videos on YouTube from Labour over the last few months, both of which about the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoralty, so fairly well geographically targeted. Interestingly, the predominant colour of the last video was yellow, with ?no? red featuring.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    It's a very reductive vision of what a man is, and part of the reason so many fall into the Andrew Tate Incel world. I am not muscley, nor particularly fit either. I take care of my appearance mostly by dressing well.

    Being a man to me is not about dominating others, it is about supporting others, and using your abilities wisely. It is about being loyal, helpful and generous.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824

    Leon said:

    sarissa said:

    Leon said:

    These mountains are SPECTAC

    Dock them a mark for no seashore and foothills getting in the way.
    https://preview.redd.it/vuo8yobrut341.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=962290a2f1089386490a112644c091a0e65acde8
    I am now geekily addicted to making lists. Possibly because I am getting old and one day all too soon my travels will end

    Here are my top ten mountain ranges (that i have seen)

    1. Antarctic Peninsula
    Deathly, divine, the last cathedrals - ice and stone, silence and awe

    2. Tibetan Himalayas (Yunnan frontier)
    Where the gods descend, wind horses flutter; and snowcapped peaks fall into jungle

    3. The Dolomites
    Alpine perfection, fairytale meadows beneath spires of rock

    4. Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Ala-Too)
    Unyielding, dreamlike, mountain as judgment. Foreboding beauty

    5. Andes (Atacama & Bolivia borderlands)
    Where I stood at 18,386 feet among the dead volcanoes and frozen salt! I did it. Every breath a pain and a curse

    6. Zagori / Pindus Mountains
    Stone and shadow, Ottoman bridges: green-shaded gods. Tuscany meets the Grand Canyon

    7. Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta
    The only place on earth where snowy summits watch a tropical sea

    8. Alps around Chamonix
    Iconic, dramatic - also a lovely cafe by the glacier

    9. The Cuillins (Isle of Skye)
    Gaelic swathes of mist, where the dark loch lies still and the mountains skirl

    10. Eastern Icelandic Mountains
    Jagged basalt rising from moss and lava - no trail, no tree, and whale for tea

    Have I missed any? The Rockies in Canada nearly made it. Also it was hard to leave out the Pyrenees and the Andes at Patagonia
    Make it stop!
    lol

    You are free to ignore me. I often ignore myself
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.

    lol. Yes

    A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
    I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
    I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
    "I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."

    They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
    My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.

    Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.

    I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
    If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there

    Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
    "Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
    Talking of dog whistles, what do you think of the Lib Dem policy on “headphone dodgers”?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly5g7v2qddo
    If the Lib Dems extended this policy to include penalties for amplified buskers in town centres they would get a 100 seat majority at the next General Election.
    What about Steve Bray? Would they extend it to him too?
    He's a Lib Dem. Surely an exception can be applied.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    https://x.com/britainelects/status/1915351629408227433

    Ref lead of 2pts
    Westminster voting intention

    REF: 25% (+2)
    LAB: 23% (-1)
    CON: 20% (-1)
    LDEM: 16% (+2)
    GRN: 10% (-1)

    via @YouGov, 21 - 22 Apr
    Chgs. w/ 14 Apr
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,137

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    Vance wears guyliner

    Hegseth has a makeup station installed at the Pentagon

    The Mad King is bright orange

    For guys who hate drag, they sure do love makeup...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    sarissa said:

    Leon said:

    These mountains are SPECTAC

    Dock them a mark for no seashore and foothills getting in the way.
    https://preview.redd.it/vuo8yobrut341.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=962290a2f1089386490a112644c091a0e65acde8
    I am now geekily addicted to making lists. Possibly because I am getting old and one day all too soon my travels will end

    Here are my top ten mountain ranges (that i have seen)

    1. Antarctic Peninsula
    Deathly, divine, the last cathedrals - ice and stone, silence and awe

    2. Tibetan Himalayas (Yunnan frontier)
    Where the gods descend, wind horses flutter; and snowcapped peaks fall into jungle

    3. The Dolomites
    Alpine perfection, fairytale meadows beneath spires of rock

    4. Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Ala-Too)
    Unyielding, dreamlike, mountain as judgment. Foreboding beauty

    5. Andes (Atacama & Bolivia borderlands)
    Where I stood at 18,386 feet among the dead volcanoes and frozen salt! I did it. Every breath a pain and a curse

    6. Zagori / Pindus Mountains
    Stone and shadow, Ottoman bridges: green-shaded gods. Tuscany meets the Grand Canyon

    7. Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta
    The only place on earth where snowy summits watch a tropical sea

    8. Alps around Chamonix
    Iconic, dramatic - also a lovely cafe by the glacier

    9. The Cuillins (Isle of Skye)
    Gaelic swathes of mist, where the dark loch lies still and the mountains skirl

    10. Eastern Icelandic Mountains
    Jagged basalt rising from moss and lava - no trail, no tree, and whale for tea

    Have I missed any? The Rockies in Canada nearly made it. Also it was hard to leave out the Pyrenees and the Andes at Patagonia
    Make it stop!
    lol

    You are free to ignore me. I often ignore myself
    I do try. But not so easy when every other post is by @Leon
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 308

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.

    lol. Yes

    A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
    I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
    I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
    "I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."

    They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
    My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.

    Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.

    I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
    If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there

    Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
    "Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
    Talking of dog whistles, what do you think of the Lib Dem policy on “headphone dodgers”?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly5g7v2qddo
    If the Lib Dems extended this policy to include penalties for amplified buskers in town centres they would get a 100 seat majority at the next General Election.
    What about Steve Bray? Would they extend it to him too?
    He's a Lib Dem. Surely an exception can be applied.
    No. Exemplary punishment is required in his case. "Pour encourager les autres" and all that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.

    I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.

    I want them to win control of a few councils.
    They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then.
    Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
    Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.

    RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
    Yes, I think their local organisation rather lacking, but the Reform voters are motivated "to send a message", so I think will get a decent turn out. I don't think it will be well targeted, but with both Lab and Con doing the dead parrot act, it is likely that they will win a lot of seats, often with paper candidates that have little or no profile in their seats, or understanding of local government.

    These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
    I hear Reform are paying for leaflet deliveries down here in Devon. Don't know how widespread that is, but they are going to be bleeding money if that is anything like common practice.

    Do we have any Reform foot soldiers who post here? Don't recall them if so. Given how large their membership is supposed to be, rather odd that a party on the cusp of power doesn't have any active member presence on the country's pre-eminent politics site.
    I have a council by-election in an otherwise suspended election and can't remember any leaflets, just a copy of the normal Lib Dem and Tory newsletters. Reform are standing, but haven't seen or heard anything of them. Having said that, it is a pretty safe LD seat
    Quite a vigorous Reform effort in terms of leaflets in the two wards in Oxfordshire that I'm working in (no idea if they're paid deliveries or volunteers), and a good many classically floating voters I think (hard to be sure as the response is typically "not you") inclined to give them a try as they've tried everyone else. Farage spoke at a well-attended meeting in another ward. It's quite a decent effort from a new party and I'd expect them to emerge with a decent share of votes and seats but they're doing very little actual canvassing. The Tories hold both seats and are finally getting leaflets out and doing a bit of canvassing, but it's hard to see them holding the seats. Overall I expect a good Reform night, a bad Tory one and Labour more or less marking time, except where there are defectors (e.g. Broxtowe, where the whole established Labour team has been ejected).
    Labour are set to start the night by losing Runcorn to Reform in a by election, an area even Corbyn held in 2019, then follow that by coming at least third and maybe even 4th on council seats won the following day.

    If that doesn't count as a bad night for Labour, what does?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,232
    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    Wut?

    Among other things, that means that most of the women at my rowing club are right wing anti-feminists.

    {narrator : they aren’t}
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,355

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.

    lol. Yes

    A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
    I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
    I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
    "I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."

    They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
    My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.

    Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.

    I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
    If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there

    Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
    "Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
    Talking of dog whistles, what do you think of the Lib Dem policy on “headphone dodgers”?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly5g7v2qddo
    If the Lib Dems extended this policy to include penalties for amplified buskers in town centres they would get a 100 seat majority at the next General Election.
    What about Steve Bray? Would they extend it to him too?
    He's a Lib Dem. Surely an exception can be applied.
    No. Exemplary punishment is required in his case. "Pour encourager les autres" and all that.
    I think Steve Bray is someone who's a hero to some, unless they've met him.

    The guy has no friends for a reason.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205
    Pope betting update. @partypoliticalorphan suggested French god-botherer Jean-Marc Aveline who at the time was not quoted but has since been introduced into the betting and is currently a best-priced 25/1.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/pope/next-pope
  • flanner2flanner2 Posts: 20

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.

    I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.

    I want them to win control of a few councils.
    They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then.
    Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
    Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.

    RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
    Yes, I think their local organisation rather lacking, but the Reform voters are motivated "to send a message", so I think will get a decent turn out. I don't think it will be well targeted, but with both Lab and Con doing the dead parrot act, it is likely that they will win a lot of seats, often with paper candidates that have little or no profile in their seats, or understanding of local government.

    These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
    I hear Reform are paying for leaflet deliveries down here in Devon. Don't know how widespread that is, but they are going to be bleeding money if that is anything like common practice.

    Do we have any Reform foot soldiers who post here? Don't recall them if so. Given how large their membership is supposed to be, rather odd that a party on the cusp of power doesn't have any active member presence on the country's pre-eminent politics site.
    Wouldn't delivering leaflets breach their long-term sickness benefits claim?
    Where I live (West Oxfordshire) the ONLY Reform publicity has been Royal Mail-delivered letters to postal voters. These went out before the campaign officially started (and therefore don't count towards the legally-enforceable spending limits), were completely counter-productive (they made no reference to their candidate, made vague promises local politicians just can't deliver on and featured a Politburo-style photo of Farage, while the LD leaflet featured several pics of ordinary people talking to the LD candidate) and went to less than a third of the electorate.

    And - as a canvasser myself - I've not met a single voter who's ever heard of the Reform candidate or who's ever met him/her.

    The main question after the election will be "when will Farage go back to Mar-a-Lago, where he might be acceptable?"
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.

    (tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
    I largely agree. Part of why gender issues are so much to the fore are because the stereotypical gender roles pushed by Social Media are very narrow and restrictive.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,232
    Scott_xP said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    Vance wears guyliner

    Hegseth has a makeup station installed at the Pentagon

    The Mad King is bright orange

    For guys who hate drag, they sure do love makeup...
    The perfect Aryan

    - Blond and tall like Hitler
    - Physically perfect like Goebbels
    - Slim like Goering
    - A genius like Borman
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    dixiedean said:

    The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.

    I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.

    I want them to win control of a few councils.
    They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then.
    Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
    Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.

    RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
    The problem for Reform is what happens if they do win seats but not enough to win majority control of councils.

    They could well "carp from the sidelines" and not go into administration with any other group and that's their right but it will lay them open to the charge of not being serious about power.

    The other option is to get their hands dirty - will they support Conservative minority administrations, Labour minority administrations, Lib Dem minority administrations, Green minority administrations etc? If they choose to get involved, they will have to deal with responsibility and accountability (fine) but it will also impact on the national agenda - if Reform are working with Labour on this council, could they work with Labour nationally?

    We see in Germany it's possible for parties to work at Land level in a different way to Federal level but we don't think in those terms (our fault).
    That's the ideal position for them. They can promise the Moon on a stick, if only they had majority control.

    I expect they'll gain a majority in three or four councils, and perhaps win a mayoralty.
    They might have happen to them what happened to the Greens in Brighton - people are keener on the theory than the practice and buyers' regret swiftly follows....
    Did it though? Green politicians still do remarkably well in Brighton, I think?
    Lost control of the Council and Council Leader lost his seat (my ward) - replaced by Labour councillor.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.

    lol. Yes

    A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
    I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
    I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
    "I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."

    They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
    My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.

    Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.

    I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
    If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there

    Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
    "Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
    Talking of dog whistles, what do you think of the Lib Dem policy on “headphone dodgers”?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly5g7v2qddo
    If the Lib Dems extended this policy to include penalties for amplified buskers in town centres they would get a 100 seat majority at the next General Election.
    What about Steve Bray? Would they extend it to him too?
    He's a Lib Dem. Surely an exception can be applied.
    No. Exemplary punishment is required in his case. "Pour encourager les autres" and all that.
    I think Steve Bray is someone who's a hero to some, unless they've met him.

    The guy has no friends for a reason.
    Didn’t his Brexit obsession end his marriage and lose him his house? Something like that

    All very sad. And all done in public
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.

    lol. Yes

    A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
    I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
    I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
    "I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."

    They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
    My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.

    Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.

    I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
    If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there

    Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
    "Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
    It really isn’t. Because the sums are far from trivial

    You know how much we spend a year on asylums seekers? Around £5 BILLION and the number is rising every week - in 2-3 years it could hit £10 bn
    £5Bn is 0.42% of government expenditure.

    Hardly an avalanche of money…
    Better than a poke in the eye with a stick
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    flanner2 said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.

    I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.

    I want them to win control of a few councils.
    They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then.
    Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
    Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.

    RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
    Yes, I think their local organisation rather lacking, but the Reform voters are motivated "to send a message", so I think will get a decent turn out. I don't think it will be well targeted, but with both Lab and Con doing the dead parrot act, it is likely that they will win a lot of seats, often with paper candidates that have little or no profile in their seats, or understanding of local government.

    These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
    I hear Reform are paying for leaflet deliveries down here in Devon. Don't know how widespread that is, but they are going to be bleeding money if that is anything like common practice.

    Do we have any Reform foot soldiers who post here? Don't recall them if so. Given how large their membership is supposed to be, rather odd that a party on the cusp of power doesn't have any active member presence on the country's pre-eminent politics site.
    Wouldn't delivering leaflets breach their long-term sickness benefits claim?
    And - as a canvasser myself - I've not met a single voter who's ever heard of the Reform candidate or who's ever met him/her.

    Probably an advantage for Reform for voters not to meet their canvassers.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695

    Pope betting update. @partypoliticalorphan suggested French god-botherer Jean-Marc Aveline who at the time was not quoted but has since been introduced into the betting and is currently a best-priced 25/1.
    https://www.oddschecker.com/novelty/pope/next-pope

    But has he had telephone lines installed?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397
    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.

    (tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
    IMV the more people try to pigeonhole man and women into very defined groups, the more the concept of gender is required for the rest of us. I'm increasingly of the view that nothing in biology or society is binary: sex certainly is not, given those with intersex conditions (which the debate widely ignores or tries to hand-wave away). Sexuality certainly is not binary, and again, this is something some people - not you - have great trouble with.

    The way this is heading, roles will regress and become more binary, becoming "men do this, women do this" This would be a very backwards move, but I think will be the next battleground if some have their way.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.

    (tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
    Gender is a philosophical belief - like believing you have a "soul".

    It's also often based on regressive and sexist stereotypes.

    People are entitled to believe it, but they can't oblige other people to.

    "Born in the wrong body" is one of the wickedest lies that young, impressionable (often same-sex attracted, though they won't have worked that out yet or autistic) children have been told.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,307
    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    Is Vance much of a muscle man himself? He the pie-faced look of a soon-to-be plumpster to me.
    Ex-USMC (even if he was a fobbit) so he was reasonably fit at one time.
    https://www.quora.com/What-does-the-military-acronym-FOBBIT-mean
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fobbit-David-Abrams/dp/1846557216
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095
    edited April 24
    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.

    lol. Yes

    A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
    I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
    I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
    "I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."

    They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
    My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.

    Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.

    I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
    If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there

    Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
    "Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
    Talking of dog whistles, what do you think of the Lib Dem policy on “headphone dodgers”?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly5g7v2qddo
    If the Lib Dems extended this policy to include penalties for amplified buskers in town centres they would get a 100 seat majority at the next General Election.
    What about Steve Bray? Would they extend it to him too?
    He's a Lib Dem. Surely an exception can be applied.
    No. Exemplary punishment is required in his case. "Pour encourager les autres" and all that.
    I think Steve Bray is someone who's a hero to some, unless they've met him.

    The guy has no friends for a reason.
    Didn’t his Brexit obsession end his marriage and lose him his house? Something like that

    All very sad. And all done in public
    'Before becoming involved in political activism, Bray himself served in the British Army, and was a self-employed numismatist, working in Port Talbot, South Wales. Bray is divorced, with a daughter and grandson.'

    'When Brexit became a major political issue, Bray found himself at odds with many of his friends. In his own words, "I fell out with all my friends. They were all leavers and I binned the lot of them."His opposition to Brexit was in part due to a belief in the benefits European Union funding had provided to Port Talbot, and a sense that the leave campaigns were misrepresenting the benefits of Brexit.'...Though he had an apartment in Westminster 'In January 2019, Bray moved into an apartment opposite the Westminster home of Conservative Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg. To rent the property in Westminster's Cowley Street for two months, he raised more than £12,000 from the public. In response to the news of his new neighbour, Rees-Mogg said: "Should he wish to borrow a cup of sugar, he would be very welcome."

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Bray
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    Is Vance much of a muscle man himself? He the pie-faced look of a soon-to-be plumpster to me.
    Ex-USMC (even if he was a fobbit) so he was reasonably fit at one time.
    Still an utter arsehole though
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,567
    Dura_Ace said:

    Leon said:

    Posh Bishkek cafes do REALLY good coffee. Indeed this is true across Central Asia and all the three stans I’ve seen on this trip

    Superb coffee. They take it very seriously. Also the baristas are great at foam art

    Hopefully, this will provoke a discussion, extensive in both scope and duration, from other contributors on cups of coffee that they have enjoyed. Or perhaps not enjoyed relative to other cups of coffee.
    Don't live a little, live a latte.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,324
    viewcode said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    Is Vance much of a muscle man himself? He the pie-faced look of a soon-to-be plumpster to me.
    Ex-USMC (even if he was a fobbit) so he was reasonably fit at one time.
    https://www.quora.com/What-does-the-military-acronym-FOBBIT-mean
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fobbit-David-Abrams/dp/1846557216
    Thank you for your service.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695
    Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral election:

    I was sent an email that included a bar chart - a Labour bar chart(!) - showing ReFuk on 27%, Labour on 25%, Tories 21%, LD 13%, Green 8%. Source is apparently a pukka piece of opinion polling.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,095

    Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral election:

    I was sent an email that included a bar chart - a Labour bar chart(!) - showing ReFuk on 27%, Labour on 25%, Tories 21%, LD 13%, Green 8%. Source is apparently a pukka piece of opinion polling.

    Well if they want Tory tactical votes for Reform....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    HYUFD said:

    Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral election:

    I was sent an email that included a bar chart - a Labour bar chart(!) - showing ReFuk on 27%, Labour on 25%, Tories 21%, LD 13%, Green 8%. Source is apparently a pukka piece of opinion polling.

    Well if they want Tory tactical votes for Reform....
    ...or against Reform.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.

    I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.

    I want them to win control of a few councils.
    They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then.
    Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
    Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.

    RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
    Yes, I think their local organisation rather lacking, but the Reform voters are motivated "to send a message", so I think will get a decent turn out. I don't think it will be well targeted, but with both Lab and Con doing the dead parrot act, it is likely that they will win a lot of seats, often with paper candidates that have little or no profile in their seats, or understanding of local government.

    These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
    I hear Reform are paying for leaflet deliveries down here in Devon. Don't know how widespread that is, but they are going to be bleeding money if that is anything like common practice.

    Do we have any Reform foot soldiers who post here? Don't recall them if so. Given how large their membership is supposed to be, rather odd that a party on the cusp of power doesn't have any active member presence on the country's pre-eminent politics site.
    I have a council by-election in an otherwise suspended election and can't remember any leaflets, just a copy of the normal Lib Dem and Tory newsletters. Reform are standing, but haven't seen or heard anything of them. Having said that, it is a pretty safe LD seat
    Quite a vigorous Reform effort in terms of leaflets in the two wards in Oxfordshire that I'm working in (no idea if they're paid deliveries or volunteers), and a good many classically floating voters I think (hard to be sure as the response is typically "not you") inclined to give them a try as they've tried everyone else. Farage spoke at a well-attended meeting in another ward. It's quite a decent effort from a new party and I'd expect them to emerge with a decent share of votes and seats but they're doing very little actual canvassing. The Tories hold both seats and are finally getting leaflets out and doing a bit of canvassing, but it's hard to see them holding the seats. Overall I expect a good Reform night, a bad Tory one and Labour more or less marking time, except where there are defectors (e.g. Broxtowe, where the whole established Labour team has been ejected).
    In my area, Reform has been trying to do presentations at three parish council meetings which I am acquainted (so presumably other parish councils too). I've no idea if this is allowed.

    Mrs Stocky, who serves on all three councils, declined the requests - responding to Reform that the councils are not political and it would be inappropriate for Reform to attend. She heard nothing thereafter.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518
    edited April 24
    Foxy said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    It's a very reductive vision of what a man is, and part of the reason so many fall into the Andrew Tate Incel world. I am not muscley, nor particularly fit either. I take care of my appearance mostly by dressing well.

    Being a man to me is not about dominating others, it is about supporting others, and using your abilities wisely. It is about being loyal, helpful and generous.
    Loyalty, kindness, being supportive, are virtues in a partner that tend to be underrated, at the level of popular culture, in favour of infatuation. One reason why I loathe things like The Bridges of Madison County.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.

    (tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
    IMV the more people try to pigeonhole man and women into very defined groups, the more the concept of gender is required for the rest of us. I'm increasingly of the view that nothing in biology or society is binary: sex certainly is not, given those with intersex conditions (which the debate widely ignores or tries to hand-wave away). Sexuality certainly is not binary, and again, this is something some people - not you - have great trouble with.

    The way this is heading, roles will regress and become more binary, becoming "men do this, women do this" This would be a very backwards move, but I think will be the next battleground if some have their way.
    Sex is binary. People with DSDs (Differences of Sexual Development) were developing down either the male or female route when something went wrong, so all DSDs are either from a male or female base. (By the way "intersex" is regarded by some with DSDs as an outdated and offensive term.)

    I agree on sexuality.

    I think people have i) a sex, determined shortly after conception, and with them for life, ii) a sexuality, which is no one's business but their own and any other consenting adult they wish to interact sexually with and iii) a personality, of which there are as many variants as there are people.

    It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,397

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.

    (tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
    IMV the more people try to pigeonhole man and women into very defined groups, the more the concept of gender is required for the rest of us. I'm increasingly of the view that nothing in biology or society is binary: sex certainly is not, given those with intersex conditions (which the debate widely ignores or tries to hand-wave away). Sexuality certainly is not binary, and again, this is something some people - not you - have great trouble with.

    The way this is heading, roles will regress and become more binary, becoming "men do this, women do this" This would be a very backwards move, but I think will be the next battleground if some have their way.
    Sex is binary. People with DSDs (Differences of Sexual Development) were developing down either the male or female route when something went wrong, so all DSDs are either from a male or female base. (By the way "intersex" is regarded by some with DSDs as an outdated and offensive term.)

    I agree on sexuality.

    I think people have i) a sex, determined shortly after conception, and with them for life, ii) a sexuality, which is no one's business but their own and any other consenting adult they wish to interact sexually with and iii) a personality, of which there are as many variants as there are people.

    It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.
    "when something went wrong"...

    Wording that says a heck of a lot. Perhaps, from their perspective, nothing 'went wrong', but 'went right' ?

    Intersex people exist. Their existence shows that sex is not binary.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695
    HYUFD said:

    Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral election:

    I was sent an email that included a bar chart - a Labour bar chart(!) - showing ReFuk on 27%, Labour on 25%, Tories 21%, LD 13%, Green 8%. Source is apparently a pukka piece of opinion polling.

    Well if they want Tory tactical votes for Reform....
    It is appealing for tactical votes from LD/Green supporters. But I agree, it could backfire and unite the right.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Leon said:

    sarissa said:

    Leon said:

    These mountains are SPECTAC

    Dock them a mark for no seashore and foothills getting in the way.
    https://preview.redd.it/vuo8yobrut341.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=962290a2f1089386490a112644c091a0e65acde8
    I am now geekily addicted to making lists. Possibly because I am getting old and one day all too soon my travels will end

    Here are my top ten mountain ranges (that i have seen)

    1. Antarctic Peninsula
    Deathly, divine, the last cathedrals - ice and stone, silence and awe

    2. Tibetan Himalayas (Yunnan frontier)
    Where the gods descend, wind horses flutter; and snowcapped peaks fall into jungle

    3. The Dolomites
    Alpine perfection, fairytale meadows beneath spires of rock

    4. Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Ala-Too)
    Unyielding, dreamlike, mountain as judgment. Foreboding beauty

    5. Andes (Atacama & Bolivia borderlands)
    Where I stood at 18,386 feet among the dead volcanoes and frozen salt! I did it. Every breath a pain and a curse

    6. Zagori / Pindus Mountains
    Stone and shadow, Ottoman bridges: green-shaded gods. Tuscany meets the Grand Canyon

    7. Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta
    The only place on earth where snowy summits watch a tropical sea

    8. Alps around Chamonix
    Iconic, dramatic - also a lovely cafe by the glacier

    9. The Cuillins (Isle of Skye)
    Gaelic swathes of mist, where the dark loch lies still and the mountains skirl

    10. Eastern Icelandic Mountains
    Jagged basalt rising from moss and lava - no trail, no tree, and whale for tea

    Have I missed any? The Rockies in Canada nearly made it. Also it was hard to leave out the Pyrenees and the Andes at Patagonia
    Not so much a mountain range, but... I went to Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea maybe half a dozen times. Then one day, the weather had changed, and there in front of me in all its glory was Mount Cameroon, utterly dominating the view.

    Oh, and the volcano upon which sits Edinburgh of the Seven Seas (and is all that comprises Tristan da Cunha) rears out of the Atlantic like a James Bond-baddy hideout.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.

    (tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
    I largely agree. Part of why gender issues are so much to the fore are because the stereotypical gender roles pushed by Social Media are very narrow and restrictive.

    Only if you are woke, they are pretty simple nowadays. Anyone can do what they want within the law but you are still a man or a woman.
    Issue has been people trying to force other people to let them pretend they can do what they want regardless of individual's rights and that laws do not apply to them. Shat in their own nest now and people are taking sides.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    HYUFD said:

    Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral election:

    I was sent an email that included a bar chart - a Labour bar chart(!) - showing ReFuk on 27%, Labour on 25%, Tories 21%, LD 13%, Green 8%. Source is apparently a pukka piece of opinion polling.

    Well if they want Tory tactical votes for Reform....
    It is appealing for tactical votes from LD/Green supporters. But I agree, it could backfire and unite the right.
    "Who knows who can win here!"
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    edited April 24

    Cookie said:

    Sean_F said:

    stodge said:

    dixiedean said:

    The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.

    I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.

    I want them to win control of a few councils.
    They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then.
    Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
    Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.

    RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
    The problem for Reform is what happens if they do win seats but not enough to win majority control of councils.

    They could well "carp from the sidelines" and not go into administration with any other group and that's their right but it will lay them open to the charge of not being serious about power.

    The other option is to get their hands dirty - will they support Conservative minority administrations, Labour minority administrations, Lib Dem minority administrations, Green minority administrations etc? If they choose to get involved, they will have to deal with responsibility and accountability (fine) but it will also impact on the national agenda - if Reform are working with Labour on this council, could they work with Labour nationally?

    We see in Germany it's possible for parties to work at Land level in a different way to Federal level but we don't think in those terms (our fault).
    That's the ideal position for them. They can promise the Moon on a stick, if only they had majority control.

    I expect they'll gain a majority in three or four councils, and perhaps win a mayoralty.
    They might have happen to them what happened to the Greens in Brighton - people are keener on the theory than the practice and buyers' regret swiftly follows....
    Did it though? Green politicians still do remarkably well in Brighton, I think?
    Lost control of the Council and Council Leader lost his seat (my ward) - replaced by Labour councillor.
    Still have an MP and more councillors than they have in many authorities though. People take a long time to change their minds! So I would imagine a little light incompetence by (say) a Reform-led Durham County council won't lead to an immediate atrophy of the Reform vote at other levels.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,402
    malcolmg said:

    Leon said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.

    lol. Yes

    A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
    I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
    I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
    "I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."

    They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
    My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.

    Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.

    I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
    If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there

    Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
    "Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
    It really isn’t. Because the sums are far from trivial

    You know how much we spend a year on asylums seekers? Around £5 BILLION and the number is rising every week - in 2-3 years it could hit £10 bn
    £5Bn is 0.42% of government expenditure.

    Hardly an avalanche of money…
    Better than a poke in the eye with a stick
    Look after the billions and the trillions look after themselves.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,307

    ...It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.

    I'm not sure that's true. The latest recommendations from LetWomenSpeak recommend rules against cross-dressing.

    https://xcancel.com/POWLizPanton/status/1914357116090843397#m
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    viewcode said:

    ...It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.

    I'm not sure that's true. The latest recommendations from LetWomenSpeak recommend rules against cross-dressing.

    https://xcancel.com/POWLizPanton/status/1914357116090843397#m
    You didn't give the full quote I notice.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.

    (tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
    I largely agree. Part of why gender issues are so much to the fore are because the stereotypical gender roles pushed by Social Media are very narrow and restrictive.

    Yes, although 'pushed by social media' and 'the more people try to pigeonhole men and women' (to paraphrase JJ) make it sound like there is some sort of villain behind this, either in the form of some sort of Mark Zuckerberg supervillain or a conservative-society-as-a-whole is wrong idea. I don't think either are true (and I'm not suggesting either of you do either). I don't think many people, and certainly not many people in any sort of position of power, think men and women should be how I stereotyped them above - inasmuch as such an idea is driven at all, it's by a) a relatively small number of people who've been able to get some social media traction, and b) the nebulous concept of 'fashion', which despite appearances is never a thing much followed by the masses of us.

    I think where I'm going with this is that this isn't an idea anyone ought to feel the need to react against, because it's not an idea with any sort of currency to start with.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,235

    flanner2 said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.

    I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.

    I want them to win control of a few councils.
    They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then.
    Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
    Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.

    RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
    Yes, I think their local organisation rather lacking, but the Reform voters are motivated "to send a message", so I think will get a decent turn out. I don't think it will be well targeted, but with both Lab and Con doing the dead parrot act, it is likely that they will win a lot of seats, often with paper candidates that have little or no profile in their seats, or understanding of local government.

    These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
    I hear Reform are paying for leaflet deliveries down here in Devon. Don't know how widespread that is, but they are going to be bleeding money if that is anything like common practice.

    Do we have any Reform foot soldiers who post here? Don't recall them if so. Given how large their membership is supposed to be, rather odd that a party on the cusp of power doesn't have any active member presence on the country's pre-eminent politics site.
    Wouldn't delivering leaflets breach their long-term sickness benefits claim?
    And - as a canvasser myself - I've not met a single voter who's ever heard of the Reform candidate or who's ever met him/her.

    Probably an advantage for Reform for voters not to meet their canvassers.

    I met my Reform candidate about a week back. The Labour candidate also visited (But we were out) a few days back. Zero from the Conservatives who were 2nd last time round but with the county ward and predecessors being continually Labour since 1973, I don't think they have a hope in hell.
    Two horse race betwixt Labour and Reform here.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205
    Stocky said:

    viewcode said:

    ...It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.

    I'm not sure that's true. The latest recommendations from LetWomenSpeak recommend rules against cross-dressing.

    https://xcancel.com/POWLizPanton/status/1914357116090843397#m
    You didn't give the full quote I notice.
    Viewcode gave the link which leads to the document. What more do you want?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.

    (tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
    IMV the more people try to pigeonhole man and women into very defined groups, the more the concept of gender is required for the rest of us. I'm increasingly of the view that nothing in biology or society is binary: sex certainly is not, given those with intersex conditions (which the debate widely ignores or tries to hand-wave away). Sexuality certainly is not binary, and again, this is something some people - not you - have great trouble with.

    The way this is heading, roles will regress and become more binary, becoming "men do this, women do this" This would be a very backwards move, but I think will be the next battleground if some have their way.
    Sex is binary. People with DSDs (Differences of Sexual Development) were developing down either the male or female route when something went wrong, so all DSDs are either from a male or female base. (By the way "intersex" is regarded by some with DSDs as an outdated and offensive term.)

    I agree on sexuality.

    I think people have i) a sex, determined shortly after conception, and with them for life, ii) a sexuality, which is no one's business but their own and any other consenting adult they wish to interact sexually with and iii) a personality, of which there are as many variants as there are people.

    It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.
    "when something went wrong"...

    Wording that says a heck of a lot. Perhaps, from their perspective, nothing 'went wrong', but 'went right' ?

    Intersex people exist. Their existence shows that sex is not binary.
    No they don’t because they are an anomaly. It’s like saying that the existence of paraplegics shows that humans are not bipedal.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,341
    One of these has to be wrong, is it Ed or Wilfred?

    Sky's @WilfredFrost questions the Energy Secretary Ed Miliband on whether UK gas prices would decrease if the tax rate of 78% on energy companies was lowered by the government.

    trib.al/kdXA2Dr

    https://x.com/skynews/status/1915290778437398696?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,307
    Stocky said:

    viewcode said:

    ...It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.

    I'm not sure that's true. The latest recommendations from LetWomenSpeak recommend rules against cross-dressing.

    https://xcancel.com/POWLizPanton/status/1914357116090843397#m
    You didn't give the full quote I notice.
    I was referring to the screenshot from the recommendations, not the twitter thread itself. If you prefer here are the links to the screenshots

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GpEpU6DW0AARcGs.jpg
    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GpEpU6WWAAE_06L.jpg

    If you prefer the full recommendations, they are in the link below. The screenshots are from pages 15 and 16 https://www.letwomenspeak.org/_files/ugd/1b54b4_0e4c392aa35e410a8bfa812793176684.pdf

    I could use an img tag to display the screenshots, but that might be thought excessive.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,824
    When a future Gibbon writes a decline and fall of the West - or perhaps a decline and fall of humanity - the “trans debate” will deserve a chapter all of it own. That so many educated people became obsessed with such a niche issue - even as the world collapsed around them - and eagerly sought to believe obviously stupid things…

    It will be a bleak chapter, as welll as bizarre
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834

    Leon said:

    sarissa said:

    Leon said:

    These mountains are SPECTAC

    Dock them a mark for no seashore and foothills getting in the way.
    https://preview.redd.it/vuo8yobrut341.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=962290a2f1089386490a112644c091a0e65acde8
    I am now geekily addicted to making lists. Possibly because I am getting old and one day all too soon my travels will end

    Here are my top ten mountain ranges (that i have seen)

    1. Antarctic Peninsula
    Deathly, divine, the last cathedrals - ice and stone, silence and awe

    2. Tibetan Himalayas (Yunnan frontier)
    Where the gods descend, wind horses flutter; and snowcapped peaks fall into jungle

    3. The Dolomites
    Alpine perfection, fairytale meadows beneath spires of rock

    4. Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Ala-Too)
    Unyielding, dreamlike, mountain as judgment. Foreboding beauty

    5. Andes (Atacama & Bolivia borderlands)
    Where I stood at 18,386 feet among the dead volcanoes and frozen salt! I did it. Every breath a pain and a curse

    6. Zagori / Pindus Mountains
    Stone and shadow, Ottoman bridges: green-shaded gods. Tuscany meets the Grand Canyon

    7. Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta
    The only place on earth where snowy summits watch a tropical sea

    8. Alps around Chamonix
    Iconic, dramatic - also a lovely cafe by the glacier

    9. The Cuillins (Isle of Skye)
    Gaelic swathes of mist, where the dark loch lies still and the mountains skirl

    10. Eastern Icelandic Mountains
    Jagged basalt rising from moss and lava - no trail, no tree, and whale for tea

    Have I missed any? The Rockies in Canada nearly made it. Also it was hard to leave out the Pyrenees and the Andes at Patagonia
    Not so much a mountain range, but... I went to Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea maybe half a dozen times. Then one day, the weather had changed, and there in front of me in all its glory was Mount Cameroon, utterly dominating the view.

    Oh, and the volcano upon which sits Edinburgh of the Seven Seas (and is all that comprises Tristan da Cunha) rears out of the Atlantic like a James Bond-baddy hideout.
    Can I add - in all sincerity - the North Western Fells of the Lake District?

    I was there at the weekend. And the week before I was in Croatia. And the cost of Croatia is stunningly good: as beautiful as the west coast of Scotland, but with better weather. But it did not make my heart sing and swell and soar like the Lake District did. We drove from Cockermouth down through Lorton to Crummock Water and the Kirkstile Inn. The sky was a bright, vivid blue, the mountains were a loving embrace. There was nowhere on earth I would have rather been.
    I've been thinking a lot about the concept of home recently, and no matter how beautiful, stark, amazing a bit of geography is, it will never sing to me like the North of England does. And the Lake District is the best of the North, and the North Western Fells are the best of the Lake District.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1915352716814991496

    BREAKING:

    India’s aircraft carrier INS Vikrant has left its port and is heading toward Pakistan.

    Meanwhile, Pakistan’s military announces live-fire drills in the area off the Pakistani coast where INS Vikrant will deploy.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,307
    Leon said:

    When a future Gibbon writes a decline and fall of the West - or perhaps a decline and fall of humanity - the “trans debate” will deserve a chapter all of it own. That so many educated people became obsessed with such a niche issue - even as the world collapsed around them - and eagerly sought to believe obviously stupid things…

    It will be a bleak chapter, as welll as bizarre

    (narrator: when Leon refers to "Gibbon" it's a reference to the historian Edward Gibbon, not the long-armed furry ape. Try not to confuse the two, especially in a library)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.

    (tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
    IMV the more people try to pigeonhole man and women into very defined groups, the more the concept of gender is required for the rest of us. I'm increasingly of the view that nothing in biology or society is binary: sex certainly is not, given those with intersex conditions (which the debate widely ignores or tries to hand-wave away). Sexuality certainly is not binary, and again, this is something some people - not you - have great trouble with.

    The way this is heading, roles will regress and become more binary, becoming "men do this, women do this" This would be a very backwards move, but I think will be the next battleground if some have their way.
    Sex is binary. People with DSDs (Differences of Sexual Development) were developing down either the male or female route when something went wrong, so all DSDs are either from a male or female base. (By the way "intersex" is regarded by some with DSDs as an outdated and offensive term.)

    I agree on sexuality.

    I think people have i) a sex, determined shortly after conception, and with them for life, ii) a sexuality, which is no one's business but their own and any other consenting adult they wish to interact sexually with and iii) a personality, of which there are as many variants as there are people.

    It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.
    "when something went wrong"...

    Wording that says a heck of a lot. Perhaps, from their perspective, nothing 'went wrong', but 'went right' ?

    Intersex people exist. Their existence shows that sex is not binary.
    List the different gametes they produce.
  • oniscoidoniscoid Posts: 24

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.

    (tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
    IMV the more people try to pigeonhole man and women into very defined groups, the more the concept of gender is required for the rest of us. I'm increasingly of the view that nothing in biology or society is binary: sex certainly is not, given those with intersex conditions (which the debate widely ignores or tries to hand-wave away). Sexuality certainly is not binary, and again, this is something some people - not you - have great trouble with.

    The way this is heading, roles will regress and become more binary, becoming "men do this, women do this" This would be a very backwards move, but I think will be the next battleground if some have their way.
    Sex is binary. People with DSDs (Differences of Sexual Development) were developing down either the male or female route when something went wrong, so all DSDs are either from a male or female base. (By the way "intersex" is regarded by some with DSDs as an outdated and offensive term.)

    I agree on sexuality.

    I think people have i) a sex, determined shortly after conception, and with them for life, ii) a sexuality, which is no one's business but their own and any other consenting adult they wish to interact sexually with and iii) a personality, of which there are as many variants as there are people.

    It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.
    "when something went wrong"...

    Wording that says a heck of a lot. Perhaps, from their perspective, nothing 'went wrong', but 'went right' ?

    Intersex people exist. Their existence shows that sex is not binary.
    No they don’t because they are an anomaly. It’s like saying that the existence of paraplegics shows that humans are not bipedal.
    if the paraplegic condition was the result of non-unique inheritable genetic variation, then indeed it could be argued that bipedalism was not a defining characteristic of Homo sapiens
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    flanner2 said:



    And - as a canvasser myself - I've not met a single voter who's ever heard of the Reform candidate or who's ever met him/her.

    At the general election last year, was it ever confirmed that a number of Reform candidates were represented by a generic AI-generated image used for their literature?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    viewcode said:

    ...It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.

    I'm not sure that's true. The latest recommendations from LetWomenSpeak recommend rules against cross-dressing.

    https://xcancel.com/POWLizPanton/status/1914357116090843397#m
    Prohibit unsafe behaviours in the workplace including cross-dressing by male staff on duty, where this undermines professional boundaries, dignity, or the ability of patients to give informed consent.

    How do you propose to let ill, confused or elderly patients give informed consent to intimate care if they are not clear on the sex of the carer?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,518
    Leon said:

    When a future Gibbon writes a decline and fall of the West - or perhaps a decline and fall of humanity - the “trans debate” will deserve a chapter all of it own. That so many educated people became obsessed with such a niche issue - even as the world collapsed around them - and eagerly sought to believe obviously stupid things…

    It will be a bleak chapter, as welll as bizarre

    Supposedly, during the siege of Constantinople in 1453, Orthodox monks were debating what happened if a fly landed in a vat of holy water.

    Was the fly sanctified or the water polluted?

    Some of our modern political arguments are similar.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    When a future Gibbon writes a decline and fall of the West - or perhaps a decline and fall of humanity - the “trans debate” will deserve a chapter all of it own. That so many educated people became obsessed with such a niche issue - even as the world collapsed around them - and eagerly sought to believe obviously stupid things…

    It will be a bleak chapter, as welll as bizarre

    (narrator: when Leon refers to "Gibbon" it's a reference to the historian Edward Gibbon, not the long-armed furry ape. Try not to confuse the two, especially in a library)
    I also did, for the first four words at least. I imagined a sort of Planet of the Apes scenario.

    I'm also heartened that @viewcode is reading this in a public library - singlehandedly and nobly keeping the old technologies alive. (Talking of which, I attempted to pay a cheque* into a bank today and was mildly taken aback that they appear no longer to have cashiers and such a thing is not possible. I was directed instead to the cashpoint outside for the purpose, which seemed to work fine.

    *A thing now apparently so archaic that my browser's spellcheck appears not to recognise it, and suggests 'quench' instead.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1915369630815928461

    Gas and grocery prices are WAY DOWN, just like I said they would be. Eggs are plentiful, and down 87%. NICE!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205

    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1915352716814991496

    BREAKING:

    India’s aircraft carrier INS Vikrant has left its port and is heading toward Pakistan.

    Meanwhile, Pakistan’s military announces live-fire drills in the area off the Pakistani coast where INS Vikrant will deploy.

    If things do kick off over there, it will not affect community relations in Britain.

    Or if it does, everyone will be taken by surprise.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    When a future Gibbon writes a decline and fall of the West - or perhaps a decline and fall of humanity - the “trans debate” will deserve a chapter all of it own. That so many educated people became obsessed with such a niche issue - even as the world collapsed around them - and eagerly sought to believe obviously stupid things…

    It will be a bleak chapter, as welll as bizarre

    (narrator: when Leon refers to "Gibbon" it's a reference to the historian Edward Gibbon, not the long-armed furry ape. Try not to confuse the two, especially in a library)
    Er, as any fule ken, Gibbon is the author of Sunset Song.

    Mind, the confusion with long-armed primates is nothing new, nor is it anything old.

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/12123002.centres-sign-makes-monkey-out-of-tourists/
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.

    (tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
    IMV the more people try to pigeonhole man and women into very defined groups, the more the concept of gender is required for the rest of us. I'm increasingly of the view that nothing in biology or society is binary: sex certainly is not, given those with intersex conditions (which the debate widely ignores or tries to hand-wave away). Sexuality certainly is not binary, and again, this is something some people - not you - have great trouble with.

    The way this is heading, roles will regress and become more binary, becoming "men do this, women do this" This would be a very backwards move, but I think will be the next battleground if some have their way.
    Sex is binary. People with DSDs (Differences of Sexual Development) were developing down either the male or female route when something went wrong, so all DSDs are either from a male or female base. (By the way "intersex" is regarded by some with DSDs as an outdated and offensive term.)

    I agree on sexuality.

    I think people have i) a sex, determined shortly after conception, and with them for life, ii) a sexuality, which is no one's business but their own and any other consenting adult they wish to interact sexually with and iii) a personality, of which there are as many variants as there are people.

    It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.
    "when something went wrong"...

    Wording that says a heck of a lot. Perhaps, from their perspective, nothing 'went wrong', but 'went right' ?

    Intersex people exist. Their existence shows that sex is not binary.
    List the different gametes they produce.
    Yes the intersex fallacy again. Can't be bothered to challenge this old chestnut yet again.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    oniscoid said:

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.

    (tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
    IMV the more people try to pigeonhole man and women into very defined groups, the more the concept of gender is required for the rest of us. I'm increasingly of the view that nothing in biology or society is binary: sex certainly is not, given those with intersex conditions (which the debate widely ignores or tries to hand-wave away). Sexuality certainly is not binary, and again, this is something some people - not you - have great trouble with.

    The way this is heading, roles will regress and become more binary, becoming "men do this, women do this" This would be a very backwards move, but I think will be the next battleground if some have their way.
    Sex is binary. People with DSDs (Differences of Sexual Development) were developing down either the male or female route when something went wrong, so all DSDs are either from a male or female base. (By the way "intersex" is regarded by some with DSDs as an outdated and offensive term.)

    I agree on sexuality.

    I think people have i) a sex, determined shortly after conception, and with them for life, ii) a sexuality, which is no one's business but their own and any other consenting adult they wish to interact sexually with and iii) a personality, of which there are as many variants as there are people.

    It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.
    "when something went wrong"...

    Wording that says a heck of a lot. Perhaps, from their perspective, nothing 'went wrong', but 'went right' ?

    Intersex people exist. Their existence shows that sex is not binary.
    No they don’t because they are an anomaly. It’s like saying that the existence of paraplegics shows that humans are not bipedal.
    if the paraplegic condition was the result of non-unique inheritable genetic variation, then indeed it could be argued that bipedalism was not a defining characteristic of Homo sapiens
    Bipedalism is also strongly age-correlated. It's certainly not universal.

    And who's to know that intersex is any more of an anomaly than homosexuality? Plenty of fishes wave a fin for the former.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,108
    Leon said:

    sarissa said:

    Leon said:

    These mountains are SPECTAC

    Dock them a mark for no seashore and foothills getting in the way.
    https://preview.redd.it/vuo8yobrut341.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=962290a2f1089386490a112644c091a0e65acde8
    I am now geekily addicted to making lists. Possibly because I am getting old and one day all too soon my travels will end

    Here are my top ten mountain ranges (that i have seen)

    1. Antarctic Peninsula
    Deathly, divine, the last cathedrals - ice and stone, silence and awe

    2. Tibetan Himalayas (Yunnan frontier)
    Where the gods descend, wind horses flutter; and snowcapped peaks fall into jungle

    3. The Dolomites
    Alpine perfection, fairytale meadows beneath spires of rock

    4. Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Ala-Too)
    Unyielding, dreamlike, mountain as judgment. Foreboding beauty

    5. Andes (Atacama & Bolivia borderlands)
    Where I stood at 18,386 feet among the dead volcanoes and frozen salt! I did it. Every breath a pain and a curse

    6. Zagori / Pindus Mountains
    Stone and shadow, Ottoman bridges: green-shaded gods. Tuscany meets the Grand Canyon

    7. Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta
    The only place on earth where snowy summits watch a tropical sea

    8. Alps around Chamonix
    Iconic, dramatic - also a lovely cafe by the glacier

    9. The Cuillins (Isle of Skye)
    Gaelic swathes of mist, where the dark loch lies still and the mountains skirl

    10. Eastern Icelandic Mountains
    Jagged basalt rising from moss and lava - no trail, no tree, and whale for tea

    Have I missed any? The Rockies in Canada nearly made it. Also it was hard to leave out the Pyrenees and the Andes at Patagonia
    7. - Trivia-tastic: Also the longest (currently known) line of sight on Earth - across the Colombian plain to/from the Santa Marta. From the south of Paramillo, there is a 500km view from Paramo Santa Ines (W 75°41'33" N 6°46'22"). In perfect visibility, Pico Ojeda (503km) would be visible through binoculars; and with a telescope part of the ridge further east could be visible at 506km.

    But if you have time and a mountain guide, there is a theoretical 538 km line of sight between Mount Dankova in Kyrgyzstan and the Hindu Tagh in China. Only a couple of hundred of miles from you as the crow flies
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,307

    Leon said:

    sarissa said:

    Leon said:

    These mountains are SPECTAC

    Dock them a mark for no seashore and foothills getting in the way.
    https://preview.redd.it/vuo8yobrut341.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=962290a2f1089386490a112644c091a0e65acde8
    I am now geekily addicted to making lists. Possibly because I am getting old and one day all too soon my travels will end

    Here are my top ten mountain ranges (that i have seen)

    1. Antarctic Peninsula
    Deathly, divine, the last cathedrals - ice and stone, silence and awe

    2. Tibetan Himalayas (Yunnan frontier)
    Where the gods descend, wind horses flutter; and snowcapped peaks fall into jungle

    3. The Dolomites
    Alpine perfection, fairytale meadows beneath spires of rock

    4. Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Ala-Too)
    Unyielding, dreamlike, mountain as judgment. Foreboding beauty

    5. Andes (Atacama & Bolivia borderlands)
    Where I stood at 18,386 feet among the dead volcanoes and frozen salt! I did it. Every breath a pain and a curse

    6. Zagori / Pindus Mountains
    Stone and shadow, Ottoman bridges: green-shaded gods. Tuscany meets the Grand Canyon

    7. Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta
    The only place on earth where snowy summits watch a tropical sea

    8. Alps around Chamonix
    Iconic, dramatic - also a lovely cafe by the glacier

    9. The Cuillins (Isle of Skye)
    Gaelic swathes of mist, where the dark loch lies still and the mountains skirl

    10. Eastern Icelandic Mountains
    Jagged basalt rising from moss and lava - no trail, no tree, and whale for tea

    Have I missed any? The Rockies in Canada nearly made it. Also it was hard to leave out the Pyrenees and the Andes at Patagonia
    Not so much a mountain range, but... I went to Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea maybe half a dozen times. Then one day, the weather had changed, and there in front of me in all its glory was Mount Cameroon, utterly dominating the view.

    Oh, and the volcano upon which sits Edinburgh of the Seven Seas (and is all that comprises Tristan da Cunha) rears out of the Atlantic like a James Bond-baddy hideout.
    I have discovered Inaccessible Island (a real thing)

    https://www.google.com/maps/place/Inaccessible+Island
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inaccessible_Island
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tD9X0GECfG0
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1915352716814991496

    BREAKING:

    India’s aircraft carrier INS Vikrant has left its port and is heading toward Pakistan.

    Meanwhile, Pakistan’s military announces live-fire drills in the area off the Pakistani coast where INS Vikrant will deploy.

    If things do kick off over there, it will not affect community relations in Britain.

    Or if it does, everyone will be taken by surprise.
    Look out Leicester

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/feb/08/unrest-leicester-muslim-hindu-revealed-britain-modi-india-2022
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,772
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    sarissa said:

    Leon said:

    These mountains are SPECTAC

    Dock them a mark for no seashore and foothills getting in the way.
    https://preview.redd.it/vuo8yobrut341.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=962290a2f1089386490a112644c091a0e65acde8
    I am now geekily addicted to making lists. Possibly because I am getting old and one day all too soon my travels will end

    Here are my top ten mountain ranges (that i have seen)

    1. Antarctic Peninsula
    Deathly, divine, the last cathedrals - ice and stone, silence and awe

    2. Tibetan Himalayas (Yunnan frontier)
    Where the gods descend, wind horses flutter; and snowcapped peaks fall into jungle

    3. The Dolomites
    Alpine perfection, fairytale meadows beneath spires of rock

    4. Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Ala-Too)
    Unyielding, dreamlike, mountain as judgment. Foreboding beauty

    5. Andes (Atacama & Bolivia borderlands)
    Where I stood at 18,386 feet among the dead volcanoes and frozen salt! I did it. Every breath a pain and a curse

    6. Zagori / Pindus Mountains
    Stone and shadow, Ottoman bridges: green-shaded gods. Tuscany meets the Grand Canyon

    7. Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta
    The only place on earth where snowy summits watch a tropical sea

    8. Alps around Chamonix
    Iconic, dramatic - also a lovely cafe by the glacier

    9. The Cuillins (Isle of Skye)
    Gaelic swathes of mist, where the dark loch lies still and the mountains skirl

    10. Eastern Icelandic Mountains
    Jagged basalt rising from moss and lava - no trail, no tree, and whale for tea

    Have I missed any? The Rockies in Canada nearly made it. Also it was hard to leave out the Pyrenees and the Andes at Patagonia
    Make it stop!
    lol

    You are free to ignore me. I often ignore myself
    Wise advice.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    edited April 24

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1915369630815928461

    Gas and grocery prices are WAY DOWN, just like I said they would be. Eggs are plentiful, and down 87%. NICE!

    You should be censured for reposting Trump bollocks.

    Reliable citation needed.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,205
    Leon said:

    When a future Gibbon writes a decline and fall of the West - or perhaps a decline and fall of humanity - the “trans debate” will deserve a chapter all of it own. That so many educated people became obsessed with such a niche issue - even as the world collapsed around them - and eagerly sought to believe obviously stupid things…

    It will be a bleak chapter, as welll as bizarre

    It still is bizarre with both sides obsessing over fringe issues rather than substantive ones. No sign of votes being shifted in any direction.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,272
    Cookie said:

    Foxy said:

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Foxy said:

    A journalist dated alt right men in the US: an interesting take on people caught up in the online “Manosphere”: https://www.cosmopolitan.com/uk/love-sex/relationships/a63915627/political-beliefs-dating-app-experiment/

    Golly, quite a brave person.

    One under-perceived thing (among many no doubt) we have in the UK about the US is the prevalence of the Gilead world view. It doesn’t seem a direct transfer to our angry incel movement here yet, though who knows after the recent convulsion of excited righties acclaiming a resurgence of church going.

    Margaret Atwood is a very wise woman, she might turn out to be the Orwell of our age.
    I think our alt-right follow so much US Social Media that they are moving down the same track on religion. In some Pentacostal style churches they are probably correct, but by and large British Christians are more socially than politically minded, albeit often from a sense of noblesse oblige.

    When you hear alt-righties speak of Christian culture, their view of that culture is rarely formed or informed by attending church, but rather is a euphemism for white European culture.

    I had a strange night in the pub at the weekend where a friend of my wife's family was trying to tell me that Russia is the last bastion of Christianity, and that the Nazis were Socialists (i think he meant this pejoratively!). He was clearly treading in the shallow end at least of the delusional right.

    Social Media is leading into a new dark age of incels, misogyny and conspiracy theory paranoia.
    When JD Vance was interviewed by Joe Rogan pre the US election, he was laughing about how left wing people were now calling keeping in good physical shape "Right Wing"... but I think there is a kernel of truth in that there is a trend now on social media for "lift weights, don't drink alcohol, get 8 hours sleep, take supplements, wake up early, take responsibility for yourself & family..." and so on, that is all good advice, but is also mixed in with a kind of right wing attitude somehow I think. A bit of a strongman model perhaps, that is anti the more left wing feminisation of men
    It's something we see frequently in various areas: the binarification of things. In this case: to be a 'man' in the eyes of some on the right, you have to be fit. But not just fit: you need to be visibly fit: muscly and manly. The 'take care of your family' is meant only in a very traditional your-wife-stays-at-home-whilst-you-provide way.

    I have seen a couple of these 'men' take the p*ss out of people who are fit but do not life weights: e.g. runners. They are aparently not manly men, despite being fit.

    Basically: Vance's ideal of fitness will be a very muscular, weight-lifting idea of fitness. Which is only one form of fitness. But a very manly one.
    I find it regrettable that kids will make up and adopt new gender identities. But when you see the concept of 'masculine = gym-bodied, tattooed and scowling: feminine = lip-fillered, false-eyelashed, heavily make-upped and pouting', youcan kind of see why other alternatives are sought.

    (tbc, my view is that gender is a myth, there are two sexes, but no 'right' way for individuals of either of those sexes to present themselves - though I reserve the right to tut or roll my eyes like the old man I almost am at appearance or lifestyle choices the youth might make.)
    I largely agree. Part of why gender issues are so much to the fore are because the stereotypical gender roles pushed by Social Media are very narrow and restrictive.

    Yes, although 'pushed by social media' and 'the more people try to pigeonhole men and women' (to paraphrase JJ) make it sound like there is some sort of villain behind this, either in the form of some sort of Mark Zuckerberg supervillain or a conservative-society-as-a-whole is wrong idea. I don't think either are true (and I'm not suggesting either of you do either). I don't think many people, and certainly not many people in any sort of position of power, think men and women should be how I stereotyped them above - inasmuch as such an idea is driven at all, it's by a) a relatively small number of people who've been able to get some social media traction, and b) the nebulous concept of 'fashion', which despite appearances is never a thing much followed by the masses of us.

    I think where I'm going with this is that this isn't an idea anyone ought to feel the need to react against, because it's not an idea with any sort of currency to start with.
    It's complicated. Gender dysphoria genuinely is a thing, and we can only understand it by listening to those who experience it. There is no other way as we have no window into souls. I think it has always existed, and like homosexuality was often suppressed in the past. So just as there always used to be confirmed bachelors and spinster people find ways to live in their societies. We are now in a society more tolerant of these things, though perhaps not so tolerant as it was a decade ago.

    How should people live out their inner selves? Is it best served by full transition, both hormonal and surgical, to some mental image of their aligned gender identity, with or without a GRC giving them new legal position? Or is it best served by smaller moves in terms of dress and physical appearance, and behaving outside these narrow gender norms?

    It seems that the majority of Trans-folk follow these less full transitions in gender roles. Often I am sure by access to hormonal and surgical alignment being so restricted that they have no choice. It seems rare for Trans-opposed campaigners to campaign for better access to psychological, hormonal and surgical treatments.

    Many however seem to choose to travel less far down that route, perhaps because of side effects or family and social pressures. Certainly my Trans acquaintances tone it down or up in different circumstances. Most don't want to live in a culture war battle at all times.

    So as a society we fumble slowly forwards, and I think the recent SC judgement helpful. It doesn't negate the need to find a way for how society accommodates Trans folk whose gender identity remains misaligned, and what a GRC now means.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,307
    Cookie said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    When a future Gibbon writes a decline and fall of the West - or perhaps a decline and fall of humanity - the “trans debate” will deserve a chapter all of it own. That so many educated people became obsessed with such a niche issue - even as the world collapsed around them - and eagerly sought to believe obviously stupid things…

    It will be a bleak chapter, as welll as bizarre

    (narrator: when Leon refers to "Gibbon" it's a reference to the historian Edward Gibbon, not the long-armed furry ape. Try not to confuse the two, especially in a library)
    I also did, for the first four words at least. I imagined a sort of Planet of the Apes scenario.

    I'm also heartened that @viewcode is reading this in a public library - singlehandedly and nobly keeping the old technologies alive. (Talking of which, I attempted to pay a cheque* into a bank today and was mildly taken aback that they appear no longer to have cashiers and such a thing is not possible. I was directed instead to the cashpoint outside for the purpose, which seemed to work fine.

    *A thing now apparently so archaic that my browser's spellcheck appears not to recognise it, and suggests 'quench' instead.
    I am not reading this in a library. That's Saturday :)
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.

    lol. Yes

    A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
    I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
    I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
    "I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."

    They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
    My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.

    Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.

    I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
    If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there

    Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
    "Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
    Talking of dog whistles, what do you think of the Lib Dem policy on “headphone dodgers”?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly5g7v2qddo
    If the Lib Dems extended this policy to include penalties for amplified buskers in town centres they would get a 100 seat majority at the next General Election.
    And that wanker with the top hat.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,670

    Does anyone have any impression of how Farage's "professionally vetted" candidates are doing at not embarrassing themselves (& him)?

    @Taz ' neck of the woods seems quite ... fruity.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633
    edited April 24
    MattW said:


    Does anyone have any impression of how Farage's "professionally vetted" candidates are doing at not embarrassing themselves (& him)?

    @Taz ' neck of the woods seems quite ... fruity.

    It certainly is. The candidates for Reform posting online seem okay. Don’t scare the horses I suspect. However as for the supporters. Unpleasant on both sides. Neither Reform nor their opponents come out of any ‘debate’ looking anything other than twats.

    We could have Darren Grimes as our council leader. I suspect we will.

    I will be venturing back into the Chester le street Facebook groups once the election is done !!
  • oniscoidoniscoid Posts: 24

    flanner2 said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.

    I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.

    I want them to win control of a few councils.
    They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then.
    Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
    Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.

    RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
    Yes, I think their local organisation rather lacking, but the Reform voters are motivated "to send a message", so I think will get a decent turn out. I don't think it will be well targeted, but with both Lab and Con doing the dead parrot act, it is likely that they will win a lot of seats, often with paper candidates that have little or no profile in their seats, or understanding of local government.

    These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
    I hear Reform are paying for leaflet deliveries down here in Devon. Don't know how widespread that is, but they are going to be bleeding money if that is anything like common practice.

    Do we have any Reform foot soldiers who post here? Don't recall them if so. Given how large their membership is supposed to be, rather odd that a party on the cusp of power doesn't have any active member presence on the country's pre-eminent politics site.
    Wouldn't delivering leaflets breach their long-term sickness benefits claim?
    And - as a canvasser myself - I've not met a single voter who's ever heard of the Reform candidate or who's ever met him/her.

    Probably an advantage for Reform for voters not to meet their canvassers.

    i take your point, but assume it's tongue-in-cheek -- based on my own recent canvassing experiences in a predominantly right wing ward, Reform candidates would probably gain more votes than they'd lose if they increased their canvassing, though naturally many would like to believe otherwise
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    MattW said:


    Does anyone have any impression of how Farage's "professionally vetted" candidates are doing at not embarrassing themselves (& him)?

    @Taz ' neck of the woods seems quite ... fruity.

    Talking about candidates, this is rather promising in terms of the forthcoming hustings:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25108496.scottish-tory-by-election-candidate-revealed-hypnotist/
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,307

    viewcode said:

    ...It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.

    I'm not sure that's true. The latest recommendations from LetWomenSpeak recommend rules against cross-dressing.

    https://xcancel.com/POWLizPanton/status/1914357116090843397#m
    Prohibit unsafe behaviours in the workplace including cross-dressing by male staff on duty, where this undermines professional boundaries, dignity, or the ability of patients to give informed consent.

    How do you propose to let ill, confused or elderly patients give informed consent to intimate care if they are not clear on the sex of the carer?
    I wasn't. I was pointing out that "a restriction on cross-dressing" and "an imposition of gender" are logically coterminous: you can't do the former without the latter.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,160
    edited April 24
    isam said:

    One of these has to be wrong, is it Ed or Wilfred?

    Sky's @WilfredFrost questions the Energy Secretary Ed Miliband on whether UK gas prices would decrease if the tax rate of 78% on energy companies was lowered by the government.

    trib.al/kdXA2Dr

    https://x.com/skynews/status/1915290778437398696?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Actually quite an interesting question. I would guess - no, not really? The UK already has cheap domestic gas compared to our European neighbours, and there are already massive tax allowances for new development which means that energy companies simply shift profits into investment, avoiding the 78% windfall rate.

    Ultimately, the price of gas is set by global demand and supply, not a particular tax regime, and 50% of UK consumption is imported from Norway, the US and Qatar.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,307

    viewcode said:

    ...It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.

    I'm not sure that's true. The latest recommendations from LetWomenSpeak recommend rules against cross-dressing.

    https://xcancel.com/POWLizPanton/status/1914357116090843397#m
    Prohibit unsafe behaviours in the workplace including cross-dressing by male staff on duty, where this undermines professional boundaries, dignity, or the ability of patients to give informed consent.

    How do you propose to let ill, confused or elderly patients give informed consent to intimate care if they are not clear on the sex of the carer?
    (there is also a puckish part of me that wants to point out that a badge with "my pronouns are" would do the job just as well :) )
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    edited April 24

    flanner2 said:



    And - as a canvasser myself - I've not met a single voter who's ever heard of the Reform candidate or who's ever met him/her.

    At the general election last year, was it ever confirmed that a number of Reform candidates were represented by a generic AI-generated image used for their literature?
    Is the gorgeous picture of Sir Nigel Churchill and his British Bulldog rental on the front of today's Telegraph real or an AI interpretation?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    Taz said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.

    lol. Yes

    A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
    I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
    I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
    "I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."

    They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
    My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.

    Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.

    I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
    If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there

    Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
    "Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
    Talking of dog whistles, what do you think of the Lib Dem policy on “headphone dodgers”?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly5g7v2qddo
    If the Lib Dems extended this policy to include penalties for amplified buskers in town centres they would get a 100 seat majority at the next General Election.
    And that wanker with the top hat.
    Jacob Rees Mogg?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,508
    Taz said:

    Cicero said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Unfair, the amount of mildly grifty self-interest shown by Labour indicates that they care for very ordinary people.

    lol. Yes

    A government by the mediocre for the mediocre. A government so dedicated to aiding the mediocre the entire cabinet is composed of mediocrities and the mediocre leader himself puts the meh in mediocre
    I'll take mediocre over orange clownshow Reform redux, which seems to be the alternative.
    I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people. Labour care about anyone but the British and Britain, and strive to make sure we always get the worst possible deal, favouring foreigners wherever they can - to the extent they are paying random third countries tens of billions to take away our territory - even as they invite in tens of thousands of illegal migrants and put them in the Savoy. On our shilling
    "I will take reform because at least they care about Britain and British people."

    They really don't. And too many of their supporters care for only a rather limited subset of "British people".
    My main issue with Reform on a practical level is they insist they are not normal politicians but they look pretty regular to me.

    Sure certain policy positions may be different, which some will like and others hate, but they want to present as some transformative new force you can trust, when they seem to be made up of...the same type of people who usually become politicians, saying the same basic things - x is bad, you can't trust y to solve it but I'm on the level.

    I just don't see on what basis they'd magically have more integrity and competence when they spin and obfuscate and simplify just like other parties and say they care like others, even if you prefer their policies.
    If they stop the boats and get immigration down under 100,000 that will be an overwhelming triumph. Then we can talk about removing ILR for the boriswave - and move from there

    Just doing that will be an enormous boost to the UK’s fiscal position
    "Stop the boats" may be some kind of symbolic talisman to the fash-curious, but has bugger all to to do with anything fundamental in the UK. It is basically an unserious dog whistle.
    Talking of dog whistles, what do you think of the Lib Dem policy on “headphone dodgers”?

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly5g7v2qddo
    If the Lib Dems extended this policy to include penalties for amplified buskers in town centres they would get a 100 seat majority at the next General Election.
    And that wanker with the top hat.
    What's wrong with a top hat?
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    sarissa said:

    Leon said:

    sarissa said:

    Leon said:

    These mountains are SPECTAC

    Dock them a mark for no seashore and foothills getting in the way.
    https://preview.redd.it/vuo8yobrut341.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=962290a2f1089386490a112644c091a0e65acde8
    I am now geekily addicted to making lists. Possibly because I am getting old and one day all too soon my travels will end

    Here are my top ten mountain ranges (that i have seen)

    1. Antarctic Peninsula
    Deathly, divine, the last cathedrals - ice and stone, silence and awe

    2. Tibetan Himalayas (Yunnan frontier)
    Where the gods descend, wind horses flutter; and snowcapped peaks fall into jungle

    3. The Dolomites
    Alpine perfection, fairytale meadows beneath spires of rock

    4. Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Ala-Too)
    Unyielding, dreamlike, mountain as judgment. Foreboding beauty

    5. Andes (Atacama & Bolivia borderlands)
    Where I stood at 18,386 feet among the dead volcanoes and frozen salt! I did it. Every breath a pain and a curse

    6. Zagori / Pindus Mountains
    Stone and shadow, Ottoman bridges: green-shaded gods. Tuscany meets the Grand Canyon

    7. Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta
    The only place on earth where snowy summits watch a tropical sea

    8. Alps around Chamonix
    Iconic, dramatic - also a lovely cafe by the glacier

    9. The Cuillins (Isle of Skye)
    Gaelic swathes of mist, where the dark loch lies still and the mountains skirl

    10. Eastern Icelandic Mountains
    Jagged basalt rising from moss and lava - no trail, no tree, and whale for tea

    Have I missed any? The Rockies in Canada nearly made it. Also it was hard to leave out the Pyrenees and the Andes at Patagonia
    7. - Trivia-tastic: Also the longest (currently known) line of sight on Earth - across the Colombian plain to/from the Santa Marta. From the south of Paramillo, there is a 500km view from Paramo Santa Ines (W 75°41'33" N 6°46'22"). In perfect visibility, Pico Ojeda (503km) would be visible through binoculars; and with a telescope part of the ridge further east could be visible at 506km.

    But if you have time and a mountain guide, there is a theoretical 538 km line of sight between Mount Dankova in Kyrgyzstan and the Hindu Tagh in China. Only a couple of hundred of miles from you as the crow flies
    I recall reading somewhere that Vatnajökull had been sighted at some ridiculous distance thanks to a temperature inversion and a Fata Morgana.

    Though technically that's cheating.

    I once watched a large black boat traversing the channel between Skye and Applecross from the beach. It should not have been visible from the shore being very low in the water but thanks to such weird light bending conditions it was quite obvious to all and sundry.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,633
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:


    Does anyone have any impression of how Farage's "professionally vetted" candidates are doing at not embarrassing themselves (& him)?

    @Taz ' neck of the woods seems quite ... fruity.

    Talking about candidates, this is rather promising in terms of the forthcoming hustings:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25108496.scottish-tory-by-election-candidate-revealed-hypnotist/
    This energy


  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    oniscoid said:

    flanner2 said:

    Foxy said:

    dixiedean said:

    The zeitgeist suggests to me that Reform will do splendidly well at the local elections, Labour and Conservatives terribly, and Libs, Greens and Independents okay. The turnout will be very low, though, and the Reform % vote not that high, so this won't mark a sufficiently huge groundswell for Farage to tell his fans to return to their coastal and market towns and prepare for government.

    I suspect (hope?) though, that this will mark peak Reform, as they gradually unravel over the next few years and both Labour and the Tories get their act together.

    I want them to win control of a few councils.
    They won't be able to carp from the sidelines with impunity then.
    Although I expect a titanic effort to do so.
    Sorry, I just don't think they are strong enough on theground to get their vote out. A good "air war" and paid deliveries can get them so far, but if it's raining on Polling Day they are going to need good canvass returns and a Polling Day organisation to get their voters to the polls. For this reason, I think the Lib Dems (and the Greens) will do a bit better than expected - but only in the areas where they have worked in the past few months. Likewise, any remaining competent Labour and Conservative electoral machines will also help to see off any insurgents.

    RefUK will get a lot of votes across the board, but not enough to get a stellar result.
    Yes, I think their local organisation rather lacking, but the Reform voters are motivated "to send a message", so I think will get a decent turn out. I don't think it will be well targeted, but with both Lab and Con doing the dead parrot act, it is likely that they will win a lot of seats, often with paper candidates that have little or no profile in their seats, or understanding of local government.

    These are Shire seats so expect a fair number of fairly traditional Tories to be elected too, but not ones particularly enamoured of the Westminster party.
    I hear Reform are paying for leaflet deliveries down here in Devon. Don't know how widespread that is, but they are going to be bleeding money if that is anything like common practice.

    Do we have any Reform foot soldiers who post here? Don't recall them if so. Given how large their membership is supposed to be, rather odd that a party on the cusp of power doesn't have any active member presence on the country's pre-eminent politics site.
    Wouldn't delivering leaflets breach their long-term sickness benefits claim?
    And - as a canvasser myself - I've not met a single voter who's ever heard of the Reform candidate or who's ever met him/her.

    Probably an advantage for Reform for voters not to meet their canvassers.

    i take your point, but assume it's tongue-in-cheek -- based on my own recent canvassing experiences in a predominantly right wing ward, Reform candidates would probably gain more votes than they'd lose if they increased their canvassing, though naturally many would like to believe otherwise
    I always go for the gag. I have a strike rate of 2/10
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,695
    MattW said:


    Does anyone have any impression of how Farage's "professionally vetted" candidates are doing at not embarrassing themselves (& him)?

    @Taz ' neck of the woods seems quite ... fruity.

    Their candidate for mayor of Hull & EY is an Olympic gold medalist.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,834
    I just heard a snippet on the radio news which made me lol: People are being criticised for taking selfies with the dead pope.
    Hilariously disrespctful and a cherishably ridiculous mental image.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,327
    Cookie said:

    I just heard a snippet on the radio news which made me lol: People are being criticised for taking selfies with the dead pope.
    Hilariously disrespctful and a cherishably ridiculous mental image.

    I don't think he'll mind.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,772
    To all those urging Ukraine to enter peace talks with russia — please, take a close look at this photo.

    This is Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. In 1999, it was reduced to rubble by russian forces — just three years after russia signed a peace treaty with Chechnya.

    Russia couldn’t win the war, so it took a break — only to come back and destroy the country, killing hundreds of thousands of Chechens.

    The only language russia understands is the language of force. They must be humiliated and decisively defeated. Otherwise, the world will remain at the mercy of an evil empire, ready to attack any country, at any time.

    https://x.com/rshereme/status/1915229246915567951
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    Cookie said:

    I just heard a snippet on the radio news which made me lol: People are being criticised for taking selfies with the dead pope.
    Hilariously disrespctful and a cherishably ridiculous mental image.

    I don't think he'll mind.
    He probably wouldn’t have minded in life either!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,856
    https://x.com/warmonitor3/status/1915358872270786831

    India suspends visa services for Pakistani nationals with immediate effect.

    All existing visas have been revoked.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,160
    sarissa said:

    Leon said:

    sarissa said:

    Leon said:

    These mountains are SPECTAC

    Dock them a mark for no seashore and foothills getting in the way.
    https://preview.redd.it/vuo8yobrut341.jpg?width=1080&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=962290a2f1089386490a112644c091a0e65acde8
    I am now geekily addicted to making lists. Possibly because I am getting old and one day all too soon my travels will end

    Here are my top ten mountain ranges (that i have seen)

    1. Antarctic Peninsula
    Deathly, divine, the last cathedrals - ice and stone, silence and awe

    2. Tibetan Himalayas (Yunnan frontier)
    Where the gods descend, wind horses flutter; and snowcapped peaks fall into jungle

    3. The Dolomites
    Alpine perfection, fairytale meadows beneath spires of rock

    4. Tien Shan (Kyrgyz Ala-Too)
    Unyielding, dreamlike, mountain as judgment. Foreboding beauty

    5. Andes (Atacama & Bolivia borderlands)
    Where I stood at 18,386 feet among the dead volcanoes and frozen salt! I did it. Every breath a pain and a curse

    6. Zagori / Pindus Mountains
    Stone and shadow, Ottoman bridges: green-shaded gods. Tuscany meets the Grand Canyon

    7. Sierra Nevada de Santa Marta
    The only place on earth where snowy summits watch a tropical sea

    8. Alps around Chamonix
    Iconic, dramatic - also a lovely cafe by the glacier

    9. The Cuillins (Isle of Skye)
    Gaelic swathes of mist, where the dark loch lies still and the mountains skirl

    10. Eastern Icelandic Mountains
    Jagged basalt rising from moss and lava - no trail, no tree, and whale for tea

    Have I missed any? The Rockies in Canada nearly made it. Also it was hard to leave out the Pyrenees and the Andes at Patagonia
    7. - Trivia-tastic: Also the longest (currently known) line of sight on Earth - across the Colombian plain to/from the Santa Marta. From the south of Paramillo, there is a 500km view from Paramo Santa Ines (W 75°41'33" N 6°46'22"). In perfect visibility, Pico Ojeda (503km) would be visible through binoculars; and with a telescope part of the ridge further east could be visible at 506km.

    But if you have time and a mountain guide, there is a theoretical 538 km line of sight between Mount Dankova in Kyrgyzstan and the Hindu Tagh in China. Only a couple of hundred of miles from you as the crow flies
    Rather less impressive, but it's cool standing on a mountain in Glen Affric and watching Calmac ferries head the Western Isles, then turn round and watch the offshore supply ships head out into the North Sea from Cromarty.

    (requires binoculars)
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,924
    Cookie said:

    I just heard a snippet on the radio news which made me lol: People are being criticised for taking selfies with the dead pope.
    Hilariously disrespctful and a cherishably ridiculous mental image.

    Sorry, what?

    Maybe Leon is right. The decline of Western Civilisation is happening apace.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1915369630815928461

    Gas and grocery prices are WAY DOWN, just like I said they would be. Eggs are plentiful, and down 87%. NICE!

    You should be censured for reposting Trump bollocks.

    Reliable citation needed.
    Gas prices is an interesting one. They have gone down - on the basis of Trump crashing the world economy and so demand.

    Egg prices stuff is just complete bollocks though.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    ...It's the "born in the wrong body" believers who are proponents of "gender" and all the regressive stereotypes that relies on.

    I'm not sure that's true. The latest recommendations from LetWomenSpeak recommend rules against cross-dressing.

    https://xcancel.com/POWLizPanton/status/1914357116090843397#m
    Prohibit unsafe behaviours in the workplace including cross-dressing by male staff on duty, where this undermines professional boundaries, dignity, or the ability of patients to give informed consent.

    How do you propose to let ill, confused or elderly patients give informed consent to intimate care if they are not clear on the sex of the carer?
    I wasn't. I was pointing out that "a restriction on cross-dressing" and "an imposition of gender" are logically coterminous: you can't do the former without the latter.
    So the suggestion is sensible and one you’d support?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,559
    Taz said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:


    Does anyone have any impression of how Farage's "professionally vetted" candidates are doing at not embarrassing themselves (& him)?

    @Taz ' neck of the woods seems quite ... fruity.

    Talking about candidates, this is rather promising in terms of the forthcoming hustings:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/25108496.scottish-tory-by-election-candidate-revealed-hypnotist/
    This energy


    "I'm getting...an image...of a...a cock and balls. Am I right - is that your voting intention?"
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