Remember when we had all that fuss and excitement about some politicians and the odd cop putting a few quid on the date of the election? What we have just seen is a $1trillion dollar play with inside information available to the Tech bros that surround the Orange one. It almost makes us seem quaint, old fashioned, even child like.
No doubt the SEC is already on the case and charges will follow rapidly.
The corrupt, contemptuous, lying and lawless nature of this fascistic USA regime is much more significant than its incompetence on tariffs. Tariffs has drowned out everything else for days. Covering up a range of authoritarian moves, and covering up too the abject fails on the proud promises on Ukraine/Russia etc.
Yep. We have seen a total failure on Ukraine with Trump's peace plan going absolutely nowhere and the humiliation of Zelenskyy in the White House having been for nothing.
We still have the absolutely bizarre beach front idea for Gaza floating about whilst the peace there that Trump was trying to claim credit for falling apart.
We have this fiasco with tariffs.
We have innocent people wrongfully sent to a third world jail.
We have had the wilful disregard of court orders by government officials.
Remember when we had all that fuss and excitement about some politicians and the odd cop putting a few quid on the date of the election? What we have just seen is a $1trillion dollar play with inside information available to the Tech bros that surround the Orange one. It almost makes us seem quaint, old fashioned, even child like.
No doubt the SEC is already on the case and charges will follow rapidly.
The corrupt, contemptuous, lying and lawless nature of this fascistic USA regime is much more significant than its incompetence on tariffs. Tariffs has drowned out everything else for days. Covering up a range of authoritarian moves, and covering up too the abject fails on the proud promises on Ukraine/Russia etc.
Yep. We have seen a total failure on Ukraine with Trump's peace plan going absolutely nowhere and the humiliation of Zelenskyy in the White House having been for nothing.
We still have the absolutely bizarre beach front idea for Gaza floating about whilst the peace there that Trump was trying to claim credit for falling apart.
We have this fiasco with tariffs.
We have innocent people wrongfully sent to a third world jail.
We have had the wilful disregard of court orders by government officials.
It just goes on and on and on.
When you are running a three ring circus, you need something happening in each ring at all times...
Per CNBC: White House is now saying EU will not be punished for their retaliation because it hadn't gone into effect yet. So they only get the 10% baseline tariff.
That excuse just tells you in black and white how much they've contorted themselves in order to back the fuck off this poor strategy.
Remember when we had all that fuss and excitement about some politicians and the odd cop putting a few quid on the date of the election? What we have just seen is a $1trillion dollar play with inside information available to the Tech bros that surround the Orange one. It almost makes us seem quaint, old fashioned, even child like.
No doubt the SEC is already on the case and charges will follow rapidly.
The corrupt, contemptuous, lying and lawless nature of this fascistic USA regime is much more significant than its incompetence on tariffs. Tariffs has drowned out everything else for days. Covering up a range of authoritarian moves, and covering up too the abject fails on the proud promises on Ukraine/Russia etc.
Yep. We have seen a total failure on Ukraine with Trump's peace plan going absolutely nowhere and the humiliation of Zelenskyy in the White House having been for nothing.
We still have the absolutely bizarre beach front idea for Gaza floating about whilst the peace there that Trump was trying to claim credit for falling apart.
We have this fiasco with tariffs.
We have innocent people wrongfully sent to a third world jail.
It seems that 90% of those deported to the El Salvador nick had not commited a crime in the USA.
Per CNBC: White House is now saying EU will not be punished for their retaliation because it hadn't gone into effect yet. So they only get the 10% baseline tariff.
That excuse just tells you in black and white how much they've contorted themselves in order to back the fuck off this poor strategy.
Per CNBC: White House is now saying EU will not be punished for their retaliation because it hadn't gone into effect yet. So they only get the 10% baseline tariff.
That excuse just tells you in black and white how much they've contorted themselves in order to back the fuck off this poor strategy.
I have to say that this episode and the Trussterfuck really do show that a country isn’t truly free while it has to refinance national debt on a regular basis. We really need to pay it down…
Per CNBC: White House is now saying EU will not be punished for their retaliation because it hadn't gone into effect yet. So they only get the 10% baseline tariff.
That excuse just tells you in black and white how much they've contorted themselves in order to back the fuck off this poor strategy.
I have to say that this episode and the Trussterfuck really do show that a country isn’t truly free while it has to refinance national debt on a regular basis. We really need to pay it down…
Yep, to be free, you need to be free of debt. It's true from individual to richest country.
Per CNBC: White House is now saying EU will not be punished for their retaliation because it hadn't gone into effect yet. So they only get the 10% baseline tariff.
That excuse just tells you in black and white how much they've contorted themselves in order to back the fuck off this poor strategy.
Hardly insider trading, saw it reposted on X earlier lol
I think it's clear insider trading. Trump was in possession of market sensitive news and communicated it to his friends.
A million years in Mordor at best.
Does he know what he is doing from one minute to the next? There's no plan here.
The plan is to dominate the news cycle, every day. The easy way to do that is to raise some tariff or lower another tariff. It seems likely he’s got plenty more days of doing that in him.
Yep. That's pretty much it. Watch next for bombing Iran once this tariff thing has been squeezed dry. He'll be wanting to do some military stuff (get that "situation room" shot) and it won't be against Russia or China, it'll be against some Muslims who can't fight back. The Houthi action was a template. That, like everything, was personal whim and intended for headlines and tough guy posturing. It's going to be a long 19 months to those midterms.
He's a walking brand, and he wants to maintain and increase his personal wealth, which is mostly in his brand. Has he made money personally out of his tariff announcements? That's where he will have been coming from. He doesn't give a toss about China, US industry, trade balances, Red Sea navigation, the presidency, the constitution, his followers, Arctic security, fentanyl, or anything except from the POV of his brand, because his brand is where his wealth is. Probably nobody could have predicted the scale of market responses with much certainty, but knowing the timing in advance would have given him an advantage.
I have to say that this episode and the Trussterfuck really do show that a country isn’t truly free while it has to refinance national debt on a regular basis. We really need to pay it down…
Counterpoint: Had Donald or Liz been freeer to do what they wanted, that would have been worse.
I have to say that this episode and the Trussterfuck really do show that a country isn’t truly free while it has to refinance national debt on a regular basis. We really need to pay it down…
Yep, to be free, you need to be free of debt. It's true from individual to richest country.
One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.
Bottom line: Trump a week ago, Trump told America that the full tariff package was a “liberation”. Today, he largely, though not completely, reversed course. Therefore, by his own logic America is less liberated than it was. The weakest day of his presidency so far.
I have to say that this episode and the Trussterfuck really do show that a country isn’t truly free while it has to refinance national debt on a regular basis. We really need to pay it down…
Yep, to be free, you need to be free of debt. It's true from individual to richest country.
One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.
Yes, but as a result, one is in chains and the other pulling the chains.
I have to say that this episode and the Trussterfuck really do show that a country isn’t truly free while it has to refinance national debt on a regular basis. We really need to pay it down…
Yep, to be free, you need to be free of debt. It's true from individual to richest country.
One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.
Savings can exist in other things, like shares or property, things that will attract future income without being debts.
I have to say that this episode and the Trussterfuck really do show that a country isn’t truly free while it has to refinance national debt on a regular basis. We really need to pay it down…
Yep, to be free, you need to be free of debt. It's true from individual to richest country.
One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.
You can with banks having ratios between savings and loans.
Or Central banks printing money and using it to buy up debt.
Bottom line: Trump a week ago, Trump told America that the full tariff package was a “liberation”. Today, he largely, though not completely, reversed course. Therefore, by his own logic America is less liberated than it was. The weakest day of his presidency so far.
I have to say that this episode and the Trussterfuck really do show that a country isn’t truly free while it has to refinance national debt on a regular basis. We really need to pay it down…
Yep, to be free, you need to be free of debt. It's true from individual to richest country.
One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.
Me living within my income doesn't require anyone to exceed theirs.
Trump pauses his tsunami of tariffs after steepest fall in US government bond prices in 40 years. Wall Street traders were dumping US government debt, raising 30-year borrowing costs to 5%, a two-year high and above borrowing costs of Greece.
Yields have surged by the largest amount since 1982 this week. Serious problems for refinancing US debt + issuing new debt.
So Trump forced into a retreat. Who knows where we go from here.
I have to say that this episode and the Trussterfuck really do show that a country isn’t truly free while it has to refinance national debt on a regular basis. We really need to pay it down…
Yep, to be free, you need to be free of debt. It's true from individual to richest country.
One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.
Savings can exist in other things, like shares or property, things that will attract future income without being debts.
A share is definitely a debt.
Money is debt.
Gold or property maybe not, though you can't do much bartering with your house.
Lutnick: "You just have to let Donald Trump drive the car, drive the ship, drive the plane -- however you want to call it. Donald Trump is in charge. He understands how to do this, and no one could do it better. And that's just what the market told you today ... never bet against Donald Trump."
I have to say that this episode and the Trussterfuck really do show that a country isn’t truly free while it has to refinance national debt on a regular basis. We really need to pay it down…
Yep, to be free, you need to be free of debt. It's true from individual to richest country.
One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.
Savings can exist in other things, like shares or property, things that will attract future income without being debts.
A share is definitely a debt.
Money is debt.
Gold or property maybe not, though you can't do much bartering with your house.
A share has similarities to a debt, but it is a form of shared ownership.
Islamic finance has a whole suite of instruments to avoid the prohibition on usury. (Now, you might say that these instruments look remarkably similar to paying interest on a debt...)
Hardly insider trading, saw it reposted on X earlier lol
I think it's clear insider trading. Trump was in possession of market sensitive news and communicated it to his friends.
A million years in Mordor at best.
Does he know what he is doing from one minute to the next? There's no plan here.
The plan is to dominate the news cycle, every day. The easy way to do that is to raise some tariff or lower another tariff. It seems likely he’s got plenty more days of doing that in him.
I fear you are right.
When the world gets bored of tariff news as just Donald being Donald, what will he do next to raise the excitement levels?
Iran.
I’ve already pointed out the nuclear negotiations start imminently, we also had Bibi visiting Trump recently. It’s going to happen. Boom.
Maybe invest the pension in companies that make bomb shelters
Always remember. If the Tories had nominated a halfway decent mayoral candidate, despite the bleak national picture, they actually might’ve had a semi-decent chance of winning.
I have to say that this episode and the Trussterfuck really do show that a country isn’t truly free while it has to refinance national debt on a regular basis. We really need to pay it down…
Yep, to be free, you need to be free of debt. It's true from individual to richest country.
One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.
Savings can exist in other things, like shares or property, things that will attract future income without being debts.
A share is definitely a debt.
Money is debt.
Gold or property maybe not, though you can't do much bartering with your house.
A share has similarities to a debt, but it is a form of shared ownership.
Islamic finance has a whole suite of instruments to avoid the prohibition on usury. (Now, you might say that these instruments look remarkably similar to paying interest on a debt...)
You might...
How does it work? Is there no explicit promise to pay (which would be a debt, surely).
I have to say that this episode and the Trussterfuck really do show that a country isn’t truly free while it has to refinance national debt on a regular basis. We really need to pay it down…
Yep, to be free, you need to be free of debt. It's true from individual to richest country.
One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.
Me living within my income doesn't require anyone to exceed theirs.
Always remember. If the Tories had nominated a halfway decent mayoral candidate, despite the bleak national picture, they actually might’ve had a semi-decent chance of winning.
Instead, they nominated Susan Hall.
Name a candidate who, if persuaded to stand, could win next time...
One point I haven't seen made about Trump's tariffs is that some of the markups on products that are branded in the US but made in Asia are extreme. When Trump talks about Americans being ripped off, he may be right, but it's actually other Americans who are the guilty parties, so the effect of tariffs could be neutral for consumers while hitting some people who have it coming.
One point I haven't seen made about Trump's tariffs is that some of the markups on products that are branded in the US but made in Asia are extreme. When Trump talks about Americans being ripped off, he may be right, but it's actually other Americans who are the guilty parties, so the effect of tariffs could be neutral for consumers while hitting some people who have it coming.
That’s how corporate America has boomed. For example, Apple’s assemblers in China make 5% margins, which enable Apple’s 40% margins. That’s not untypical.
What you’re arguing for is a US economy which is worth dramatically less than it was last year.
One point I haven't seen made about Trump's tariffs is that some of the markups on products that are branded in the US but made in Asia are extreme. When Trump talks about Americans being ripped off, he may be right, but it's actually other Americans who are the guilty parties, so the effect of tariffs could be neutral for consumers while hitting some people who have it coming.
Brick and mortar stores need high margins to pay for rent and rates and staff. Of course the margins on chinese tat are enormous - they have to be to cover the fixed costs. Nonetheless, there will always be things better bought in person. Especially with scandals such as:
Lutnick: "You just have to let Donald Trump drive the car, drive the ship, drive the plane -- however you want to call it. Donald Trump is in charge. He understands how to do this, and no one could do it better. And that's just what the market told you today ... never bet against Donald Trump."
One point I haven't seen made about Trump's tariffs is that some of the markups on products that are branded in the US but made in Asia are extreme. When Trump talks about Americans being ripped off, he may be right, but it's actually other Americans who are the guilty parties, so the effect of tariffs could be neutral for consumers while hitting some people who have it coming.
I suspect it's a point that hasn't been made for a whole raft of very good reasons.
One point I haven't seen made about Trump's tariffs is that some of the markups on products that are branded in the US but made in Asia are extreme. When Trump talks about Americans being ripped off, he may be right, but it's actually other Americans who are the guilty parties, so the effect of tariffs could be neutral for consumers while hitting some people who have it coming.
Lutnick: "You just have to let Donald Trump drive the car, drive the ship, drive the plane -- however you want to call it. Donald Trump is in charge. He understands how to do this, and no one could do it better. And that's just what the market told you today ... never bet against Donald Trump."
Why would China do anything except wait a week or two for the iPhones to run out in Texas?
Who's the frog, Mr Trump?
They won't grovel - the dogma of the Century of Humiliation will see to that. Probably correctly, because it was not the best time in the history of any Western Imperialist country, especially ours but also bandwagon jumpers like the USA.
One point I haven't seen made about Trump's tariffs is that some of the markups on products that are branded in the US but made in Asia are extreme. When Trump talks about Americans being ripped off, he may be right, but it's actually other Americans who are the guilty parties, so the effect of tariffs could be neutral for consumers while hitting some people who have it coming.
Brick and mortar stores need high margins to pay for rent and rates and staff. Of course the margins on chinese tat are enormous - they have to be to cover the fixed costs. Nonetheless, there will always be things better bought in person. Especially with scandals such as:
I thought that was common knowledge - never buy anything where Amazon isn't the only seller unless you can be 110% sure there is no chance of fakes/ counterfeits being sent.
Lutnick: "You just have to let Donald Trump drive the car, drive the ship, drive the plane -- however you want to call it. Donald Trump is in charge. He understands how to do this, and no one could do it better. And that's just what the market told you today ... never bet against Donald Trump."
Star Trekkin' across the universe, On the Starship Enterprise under Captain Kirk. Star Trekkin' across the universe, Boldly going forward 'cause we can't find reverse.
Lt. Uhura, report.
There's Klingons on the starboard bow, starboard bow, starboard bow; There's Klingons on the starboard bow, starboard bow, Jim.
One point I haven't seen made about Trump's tariffs is that some of the markups on products that are branded in the US but made in Asia are extreme. When Trump talks about Americans being ripped off, he may be right, but it's actually other Americans who are the guilty parties, so the effect of tariffs could be neutral for consumers while hitting some people who have it coming.
I wonder who or what Trumps Rosebud was.
Gore Vidal claimed that Citizen Kane's reference to Rosebud wasn't the sled but the clitoris of Marion Davies, the lover of William Randolph Hurst.
They won't grovel - the dogma of the Century of Humiliation will see to that. Probably correctly, because it was not the best time in the history of any Western Imperialist country, especially ours but also bandwagon jumpers like the USA.
Correct. But Trump, like many Western politicians, has made no effort to learn how China's history drives its actions in the present day.
I'm not sure if we can call that yet - it could be part of the delaying tactic whilst seeing what happens.
I don't know how Lord Mandelbrot is advising that the set of cards be played.
I think the one thing I have seen Mr Starmer be unequivocal on is online abuse images, as facilitated for example by Twitter reducing their use of removal software on their service.
Trump is a man with a megaphone standing on a sandcastle as the tide comes in.
Lutnick: "You just have to let Donald Trump drive the car, drive the ship, drive the plane -- however you want to call it. Donald Trump is in charge. He understands how to do this, and no one could do it better. And that's just what the market told you today ... never bet against Donald Trump."
One point I haven't seen made about Trump's tariffs is that some of the markups on products that are branded in the US but made in Asia are extreme. When Trump talks about Americans being ripped off, he may be right, but it's actually other Americans who are the guilty parties, so the effect of tariffs could be neutral for consumers while hitting some people who have it coming.
Brick and mortar stores need high margins to pay for rent and rates and staff. Of course the margins on chinese tat are enormous - they have to be to cover the fixed costs. Nonetheless, there will always be things better bought in person. Especially with scandals such as:
I thought that was common knowledge - never buy anything where Amazon isn't the only seller unless you can be 110% sure there is no chance of fakes/ counterfeits being sent.
For the first time, the Risk List also includes three Millennium-era buildings: The former National Centre for Popular Music in Sheffield (1999), National Wildflower Centre in Knowsley (2000), and Archaeolink Prehistory Park in Aberdeenshire (1997). Some 25 years after the turn of the new Millennium and 30 years since the creation of the National Lottery, which provided the funding for so many of these architecturally ambitious projects, their physical legacy is now increasingly vulnerable and bold new uses are required to ensure their continued survival."
"The slow death of the Royal Mail is a parable of the modern British state The British economy was most successful when it was run in the national interest.
I read most of a JG Ballard book last year, "High Rise". Regretfully it was so bad I stopped just over half way through, couldn't care less about any of the characters or what happened to them
Try reading "The Kindness Of Women", one of his better efforts.
For the first time, the Risk List also includes three Millennium-era buildings: The former National Centre for Popular Music in Sheffield (1999), National Wildflower Centre in Knowsley (2000), and Archaeolink Prehistory Park in Aberdeenshire (1997). Some 25 years after the turn of the new Millennium and 30 years since the creation of the National Lottery, which provided the funding for so many of these architecturally ambitious projects, their physical legacy is now increasingly vulnerable and bold new uses are required to ensure their continued survival."
I'd say that Sheffield and Aberdeen (which is by Cullinan) are salvageable. Maybe.
The Liverpool one, which is 500 ft long, and 13ft wide, looks to me to need a sugar daddy with money to burn. The National Wildflower Centre is now based at The Eden Project. It should imo failed the "on this planet?" test in 1993.
Reading the original architectural bollocks on the concept at the risk register is revealing:
Why would China do anything except wait a week or two for the iPhones to run out in Texas?
Who's the frog, Mr Trump?
They won't grovel - the dogma of the Century of Humiliation will see to that. Probably correctly, because it was not the best time in the history of any Western Imperialist country, especially ours but also bandwagon jumpers like the USA.
Even Biden imposed tariffs on China. Apple could also move more iPhone production to the US if they become too costly to import
Okay. I have sobered up now, I think I have correctly analysed what happened today.
So it’s the bond markets that threw cold shower over Trumps “they are lining up to kiss my ass” hubris?
But what exactly did they do? And why? If you wish to be ahead on what happens next, those are the questions.
Firstly, bond prices PLUNGED.
Going to RCS post “One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.” I understood falling equity should be partially offset by rising bond prices. But this week the bond prices plunged. Falling equity and plunging bonds, a rare double whammy to make anyone rethink. That answers the first question of what.
Now it gets more complicated as to why. I’ll focus and two inputs, they both likely key players in poor demand for the bonds. There’s a practice called “basic trade” leveraged bets with goal of benefiting from futures price and bonds price, and the turmoil was forcing hedge funds to unwind these. Secondly, and more interestingly considering it would be more embarrassing for the White House if they hadn’t realised this would derail the master plan, China, as we have long time known, is a top holder of treasuries. And this week China let “the people’s currency” weaken against the dollar, perhaps very knowingly letting the markets know “Tarrif War” could become “Currency War.”
What next? The stock markets may have moved positively on announcement of 90 day pause, but have the treasuries moved? If not, the threat of currency war remains spooking the markets like "sword of Damocles" hanging over Trumps tarrif plan. Maybe a lot more humiliating blinking to come 🙂
He's made the US look ridiculous and that's how it'll stay. The more sober countries will have as little to do with him as possible. Leaders queuing up to be first to kiss the ring is a thing of the past. The best he can hope for is an occasional sauna with Netanyahu
Agreed but he already made the US look ridiculous in 2021 when the country's legislature didn't remove him from office for sending a violent mob to attack it, and then again in 2024 when the country's judicial system felt it couldn't act against him in any consequential way, on any of several charges, because he got himself elected president. He has managed to make all three branches of the state look ridiculous.
Okay. I have sobered up now, I think I have correctly analysed what happened today.
So it’s the bond markets that threw cold shower over Trumps “they are lining up to kiss my ass” hubris?
But what exactly did they do? And why? If you wish to be ahead on what happens next, those are the questions.
Firstly, bond prices PLUNGED.
Going to RCS post “One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.” I understood falling equity should be partially offset by rising bond prices. But this week the bond prices plunged. Falling equity and plunging bonds, a rare double whammy to make anyone rethink. That answers the first question of what.
Now it gets more complicated as to why. I’ll focus and two inputs, they both likely key players in poor demand for the bonds. There’s a practice called “basic trade” leveraged bets with goal of benefiting from futures price and bonds price, and the turmoil was forcing hedge funds to unwind these. Secondly, and more interestingly considering it would be more embarrassing for the White House if they hadn’t realised this would derail the master plan, China, as we have long time known, is a top holder of treasuries. And this week China let “the people’s currency” weaken against the dollar, perhaps very knowingly letting the markets know “Tarrif War” could become “Currency War.”
What next? The stock markets may have moved positively on announcement of 90 day pause, but have the treasuries moved? If not, the threat of currency war remains spooking the markets like "sword of Damocles" hanging over Trumps tarrif plan. Maybe a lot more humiliating blinking to come 🙂
In the bigger picture, I still think this is the end of the era for free trade, the world will enter into time of what it will call “fair trade” more protectionism and targeted Tarrifs, though free traders will always be around with their argument, even as the world practically moves away from it.
UK brexitted in era of free trade, does the “fair trade” type era support or undermine Brexit?
One point I haven't seen made about Trump's tariffs is that some of the markups on products that are branded in the US but made in Asia are extreme. When Trump talks about Americans being ripped off, he may be right, but it's actually other Americans who are the guilty parties, so the effect of tariffs could be neutral for consumers while hitting some people who have it coming.
That’s how corporate America has boomed. For example, Apple’s assemblers in China make 5% margins, which enable Apple’s 40% margins. That’s not untypical.
What you’re arguing for is a US economy which is worth dramatically less than it was last year.
I'm arguing for a US economy where the benefits of globalisation are shared more equally instead of creamed off by the rich.
One point I haven't seen made about Trump's tariffs is that some of the markups on products that are branded in the US but made in Asia are extreme. When Trump talks about Americans being ripped off, he may be right, but it's actually other Americans who are the guilty parties, so the effect of tariffs could be neutral for consumers while hitting some people who have it coming.
Something I always notice when visiting the US is that a lot of things are ridiculously expensive but no-one complains, and I think the reason they don't is that there's a taboo in American society on saying anything that makes it sound like you might not be able to afford something, because being poor or anything close to it is the worst thing to admit to over there. So when someone starts charging $25 dollars for a sandwich that ought to cost $10, the company can be pretty sure that no (or very few) customers are going to say something like "This is just a ridiculous price and you're ripping us off" which is precisely what people would say in most other Western countries, particularly in Europe. Americans have to keep up the pretence that they're so well-off that they don't really care how much the product is, and companies take advantage of that.
I read most of a JG Ballard book last year, "High Rise". Regretfully it was so bad I stopped just over half way through, couldn't care less about any of the characters or what happened to them
Try reading "The Kindness Of Women", one of his better efforts.
Strangely enough, I read High Rise last year too
And it has not aged well, @isam is certainly right about that.
I made my way to the end, but only because I was absolutely determined to make it, and even though it because ever more ridiculous.
What could have been an interesting study of a breakdown of society because just ... well... silly and uninteresting.
Okay. I have sobered up now, I think I have correctly analysed what happened today.
So it’s the bond markets that threw cold shower over Trumps “they are lining up to kiss my ass” hubris?
But what exactly did they do? And why? If you wish to be ahead on what happens next, those are the questions.
Firstly, bond prices PLUNGED.
Going to RCS post “One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.” I understood falling equity should be partially offset by rising bond prices. But this week the bond prices plunged. Falling equity and plunging bonds, a rare double whammy to make anyone rethink. That answers the first question of what.
Now it gets more complicated as to why. I’ll focus and two inputs, they both likely key players in poor demand for the bonds. There’s a practice called “basic trade” leveraged bets with goal of benefiting from futures price and bonds price, and the turmoil was forcing hedge funds to unwind these. Secondly, and more interestingly considering it would be more embarrassing for the White House if they hadn’t realised this would derail the master plan, China, as we have long time known, is a top holder of treasuries. And this week China let “the people’s currency” weaken against the dollar, perhaps very knowingly letting the markets know “Tarrif War” could become “Currency War.”
What next? The stock markets may have moved positively on announcement of 90 day pause, but have the treasuries moved? If not, the threat of currency war remains spooking the markets like "sword of Damocles" hanging over Trumps tarrif plan. Maybe a lot more humiliating blinking to come 🙂
leveraged bets with goal of benefiting from futures price and bonds price,
How many bets do people make where they DON’T intend to benefit from future price moves?
One point I haven't seen made about Trump's tariffs is that some of the markups on products that are branded in the US but made in Asia are extreme. When Trump talks about Americans being ripped off, he may be right, but it's actually other Americans who are the guilty parties, so the effect of tariffs could be neutral for consumers while hitting some people who have it coming.
That’s how corporate America has boomed. For example, Apple’s assemblers in China make 5% margins, which enable Apple’s 40% margins. That’s not untypical.
What you’re arguing for is a US economy which is worth dramatically less than it was last year.
I'm arguing for a US economy where the benefits of globalisation are shared more equally instead of creamed off by the rich.
By making clothing more expensive for poor Americans?
I read most of a JG Ballard book last year, "High Rise". Regretfully it was so bad I stopped just over half way through, couldn't care less about any of the characters or what happened to them
Try reading "The Kindness Of Women", one of his better efforts.
Strangely enough, I read High Rise last year too
And it has not aged well, @isam is certainly right about that.
I made my way to the end, but only because I was absolutely determined to make it, and even though it because ever more ridiculous.
What could have been an interesting study of a breakdown of society because just ... well... silly and uninteresting.
I'm just about to read Concrete Island. Hoping it's as good as most reviews say.
One point I haven't seen made about Trump's tariffs is that some of the markups on products that are branded in the US but made in Asia are extreme. When Trump talks about Americans being ripped off, he may be right, but it's actually other Americans who are the guilty parties, so the effect of tariffs could be neutral for consumers while hitting some people who have it coming.
That point has been made several times on pb, especially with reference to the effect of branding.
Reporter: You said there would be no pause and now there’s a pause
Trump: You have to have flexibility. I could say here’s a wall and I’m going to go through it and you can’t go through the wall. Sometimes you have to be able to go under the wall or around the wall or over the wall... https://x.com/Acyn/status/1910050567927505084
I'm not sure why the markets are celebrating in quite so exuberant a manner the total breakdown of trade between the world's two largest economies ?
One point I haven't seen made about Trump's tariffs is that some of the markups on products that are branded in the US but made in Asia are extreme. When Trump talks about Americans being ripped off, he may be right, but it's actually other Americans who are the guilty parties, so the effect of tariffs could be neutral for consumers while hitting some people who have it coming.
That’s how corporate America has boomed. For example, Apple’s assemblers in China make 5% margins, which enable Apple’s 40% margins. That’s not untypical.
What you’re arguing for is a US economy which is worth dramatically less than it was last year.
I'm arguing for a US economy where the benefits of globalisation are shared more equally instead of creamed off by the rich.
But that isn't Trumps policy.
He is bringing in tariffs as a tax on American consumers in order to fund tax cuts for the super-rich.
What an absolute economic clownshow. It's good tariffs have largely been reduced to 10% rather than being higher for many, but how can you make a deal with the USA or an American company when they're doing the hokey-cokey like this?
What an absolute economic clownshow. It's good tariffs have largely been reduced to 10% rather than being higher for many, but how can you make a deal with the USA or an American company when they're doing the hokey-cokey like this?
https://x.com/diviacaroline/status/1910098020743471260 I just asked ChatGPT if it had any pet theories about how the world works that it hadn’t seen much elsewhere and I liked one of its responses! (I got two and was asked to pick which I preferred)
“Absolutely, here’s one I find compelling and haven’t seen widely discussed:
“Bandwidth economics” as a driver of social structure. We usually talk about economics in terms of money, resources, or incentives. But what if a major limiting factor in how societies develop—especially in group size, complexity, and norms—is cognitive and emotional bandwidth?
Basically: humans only have so much attention, working memory, and emotional capacity to track others’ motivations, resolve ambiguity, and maintain shared understandings. Many social patterns—like hierarchy, taboo, bureaucratic ritual, or even ideologies—can be seen as compression strategies to make social life cognitively manageable. It’s like lossy JPEGs of messy reality.
So: •Hierarchies = reduce the number of people you need to track carefully •Rituals = outsource behavioral decisions to shared scripts •Ideologies = heuristics for moral/emotional allocation without constant rethinking •Bureaucracies = attempt to systematize social interactions into predictable formats to minimize cognitive load
In this view, many modern failures (e.g., political polarization, burnout in online activism, collapse of shared reality) are driven by bandwidth overflow. We’re exposed to way more people, data, and decisions than our brains evolved to handle…
https://x.com/diviacaroline/status/1910098020743471260 I just asked ChatGPT if it had any pet theories about how the world works that it hadn’t seen much elsewhere and I liked one of its responses! (I got two and was asked to pick which I preferred)
“Absolutely, here’s one I find compelling and haven’t seen widely discussed:
“Bandwidth economics” as a driver of social structure. We usually talk about economics in terms of money, resources, or incentives. But what if a major limiting factor in how societies develop—especially in group size, complexity, and norms—is cognitive and emotional bandwidth?
Basically: humans only have so much attention, working memory, and emotional capacity to track others’ motivations, resolve ambiguity, and maintain shared understandings. Many social patterns—like hierarchy, taboo, bureaucratic ritual, or even ideologies—can be seen as compression strategies to make social life cognitively manageable. It’s like lossy JPEGs of messy reality.
So: •Hierarchies = reduce the number of people you need to track carefully •Rituals = outsource behavioral decisions to shared scripts •Ideologies = heuristics for moral/emotional allocation without constant rethinking •Bureaucracies = attempt to systematize social interactions into predictable formats to minimize cognitive load
In this view, many modern failures (e.g., political polarization, burnout in online activism, collapse of shared reality) are driven by bandwidth overflow. We’re exposed to way more people, data, and decisions than our brains evolved to handle…
These are not new ideas (obviously), but that’s quite succinct.
So smashing hierarchies, social rituals, and bureaucracies, without serious though about how to reform or optimise them, is particularly stupid.
Okay. I have sobered up now, I think I have correctly analysed what happened today.
So it’s the bond markets that threw cold shower over Trumps “they are lining up to kiss my ass” hubris?
But what exactly did they do? And why? If you wish to be ahead on what happens next, those are the questions.
Firstly, bond prices PLUNGED.
Going to RCS post “One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.” I understood falling equity should be partially offset by rising bond prices. But this week the bond prices plunged. Falling equity and plunging bonds, a rare double whammy to make anyone rethink. That answers the first question of what.
Now it gets more complicated as to why. I’ll focus and two inputs, they both likely key players in poor demand for the bonds. There’s a practice called “basic trade” leveraged bets with goal of benefiting from futures price and bonds price, and the turmoil was forcing hedge funds to unwind these. Secondly, and more interestingly considering it would be more embarrassing for the White House if they hadn’t realised this would derail the master plan, China, as we have long time known, is a top holder of treasuries. And this week China let “the people’s currency” weaken against the dollar, perhaps very knowingly letting the markets know “Tarrif War” could become “Currency War.”
What next? The stock markets may have moved positively on announcement of 90 day pause, but have the treasuries moved? If not, the threat of currency war remains spooking the markets like "sword of Damocles" hanging over Trumps tarrif plan. Maybe a lot more humiliating blinking to come 🙂
In the bigger picture, I still think this is the end of the era for free trade, the world will enter into time of what it will call “fair trade” more protectionism and targeted Tarrifs, though free traders will always be around with their argument, even as the world practically moves away from it.
UK brexitted in era of free trade, does the “fair trade” type era support or undermine Brexit?
It undermines it. You will recall the cover of the Spectator on Brexit "out into the world" or some such. One of the arguments for Brexit was that EU membership inhibited trade with the rest of the world, and Brexit would enable it. Your Fair Trade World cuts that off at the kneecaps.
“Bandwidth economics” as a driver of social structure. We usually talk about economics in terms of money, resources, or incentives. But what if a major limiting factor in how societies develop—especially in group size, complexity, and norms—is cognitive and emotional bandwidth?
IIRC W. L. Gore (inventors of Goretex) empirically discovered something along those lines, and the whole company is organised into small groups. If any one group needs to expand, it is split into multiple groups
"The ex-partner of a millionaire horse racing tipster who "tortured" women and filmed the abuse has warned someone could die if he is not stopped.
Kevin Booth was given a worldwide travel ban after a Scottish civil court heard how he attacked his victims in an underground chamber at his remote Highland home and in foreign hotel rooms."
Reporter: You said there would be no pause and now there’s a pause
Trump: You have to have flexibility. I could say here’s a wall and I’m going to go through it and you can’t go through the wall. Sometimes you have to be able to go under the wall or around the wall or over the wall... https://x.com/Acyn/status/1910050567927505084
I'm not sure why the markets are celebrating in quite so exuberant a manner the total breakdown of trade between the world's two largest economies ?
The markets still haven’t fully recovered. Perhaps they’re assuming a deal will be done.
I think it unlikely this will not be resolved soon.
A fascinating tale of the Russian/Bulgarian spy ring based in Great Yarmouth, recently on trial at the Old Bailey, and lost amongst the Trump psychodrama. A tale of high tech spying, false flag Russophobia, surveillance and even planting false stories of a Wuhan lab leak to discredit a journalist.
Comments
@yasharali.bsky.social
Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard signed a sworn declaration stating that she was a resident of the State of Texas.
But then she voted in Hawaii.
https://bsky.app/profile/yasharali.bsky.social/post/3lmfsusla7s2n
We still have the absolutely bizarre beach front idea for Gaza floating about whilst the peace there that Trump was trying to claim credit for falling apart.
We have this fiasco with tariffs.
We have innocent people wrongfully sent to a third world jail.
We have had the wilful disregard of court orders by government officials.
It just goes on and on and on.
Per CNBC: White House is now saying EU will not be punished for their retaliation because it hadn't gone into effect yet. So they only get the 10% baseline tariff.
That excuse just tells you in black and white how much they've contorted themselves in order to back the fuck off this poor strategy.
https://bsky.app/profile/ivanthek.bsky.social/post/3lmfsmtxnlr2y
@atrupar
·
11m
TRUMP: We were up close to 3,000 points. Nobody has ever seen a day like that. I think that's a record, isn't it, fellas?
LUTNICK: Definitely.
https://x.com/atrupar/status/1910068659768242514
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-09/about-90-of-migrants-sent-to-salvador-lacked-us-criminal-record?utm_source=website&utm_medium=share&utm_campaign=twitter?sref=NIGftWCk&embedded-checkout=true
On? Off? Higher? Lower?
Anyone remember Play Your Cards Right? 😂
Good to know those Fentanyl drug runners are being clobbered with increased tariffs.
Trump caved. A real Panican
https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1910022222913364442
@AlfieTobutt
·
8m
THE DAILY TELEGRAPH: Trump blinks first in trade war #TomorrowsPapersToday
https://x.com/AlfieTobutt/status/1910075972357140971
Bottom line: Trump a week ago, Trump told America that the full tariff package was a “liberation”. Today, he largely, though not completely, reversed course. Therefore, by his own logic America is less liberated than it was. The weakest day of his presidency so far.
https://x.com/lewis_goodall/status/1910078745739927762
It's an inherently controlling relationship.
Or Central banks printing money and using it to buy up debt.
@afneil
Bond vigilantes 1 Trump 0
Trump pauses his tsunami of tariffs after steepest fall in US government bond prices in 40 years. Wall Street traders were dumping US government debt, raising 30-year borrowing costs to 5%, a two-year high and above borrowing costs of Greece.
Yields have surged by the largest amount since 1982 this week.
Serious problems for refinancing US debt + issuing new debt.
So Trump forced into a retreat. Who knows where we go from here.
https://x.com/afneil/status/1910055894001319951
New on @MSNBC: The White House will not release the list of 75 countries that have reached out on trade deals, despite requests from NBC News.
@jasonkirk.fyi
She goes to a different school
Money is debt.
Gold or property maybe not, though you can't do much bartering with your house.
@atrupar.com
Lutnick: "You just have to let Donald Trump drive the car, drive the ship, drive the plane -- however you want to call it. Donald Trump is in charge. He understands how to do this, and no one could do it better. And that's just what the market told you today ... never bet against Donald Trump."
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lmfwcsvycp23
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c985555nr49o
@StephenM
·
1h
You have been watching the greatest economic master strategy from an American President in history.
https://x.com/StephenM/status/1910052531742421475
Islamic finance has a whole suite of instruments to avoid the prohibition on usury. (Now, you might say that these instruments look remarkably similar to paying interest on a debt...)
Instead, they nominated Susan Hall.
How does it work? Is there no explicit promise to pay (which would be a debt, surely).
And about as convincing.
For example, Apple’s assemblers in China make 5% margins, which enable Apple’s 40% margins. That’s not untypical.
What you’re arguing for is a US economy which is worth dramatically less than it was last year.
https://www.buffalo.edu/news/tipsheets/2024/amazon-commingling-products-expert-tipsheet.html
Makes me feel sad for the rest!
"I've put 125% tariffs on Cheyna". Now they apparently have to grovel.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cp8vyy35g3mt
Why would China do anything except wait a week or two for the iPhones to run out in Texas?
Who's the frog, Mr Trump?
They won't grovel - the dogma of the Century of Humiliation will see to that. Probably correctly, because it was not the best time in the history of any Western Imperialist country, especially ours but also bandwagon jumpers like the USA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCARADb9asE
https://www.politico.eu/article/keir-starmer-uk-online-safety-act-negotiation-united-states-digital-services-tax/
https://www.wellesnet.com/gore-vidal-on-rosebud-what-did-it-really-mean/
Trump is just encouraged by weakness to bully more.
No negotiation until the tariffs are dropped, and even then sup with a very long spoon.
I wonder if Xi would make Trump go to Cheyna to negotiate.
I don't know how Lord Mandelbrot is advising that the set of cards be played.
I think the one thing I have seen Mr Starmer be unequivocal on is online abuse images, as facilitated for example by Twitter reducing their use of removal software on their service.
Trump is a man with a megaphone standing on a sandcastle as the tide comes in. He's certainly in charge of Mr Nutlick.
Risk List
For the first time, the Risk List also includes three Millennium-era buildings: The former National Centre for Popular Music in Sheffield (1999), National Wildflower Centre in Knowsley (2000), and Archaeolink Prehistory Park in Aberdeenshire (1997). Some 25 years after the turn of the new Millennium and 30 years since the creation of the National Lottery, which provided the funding for so many of these architecturally ambitious projects, their physical legacy is now increasingly vulnerable and bold new uses are required to ensure their continued survival."
https://c20society.org.uk/buildings-at-risk
The Liverpool one, which is 500 ft long, and 13ft wide, looks to me to need a sugar daddy with money to burn. The National Wildflower Centre is now based at The Eden Project. It should imo failed the "on this planet?" test in 1993.
Reading the original architectural bollocks on the concept at the risk register is revealing:
https://c20society.org.uk/buildings-at-risk/national-centre-for-popular-music-sheffield
https://c20society.org.uk/buildings-at-risk/archaeolink-prehistory-park-aberdeenshire
https://c20society.org.uk/buildings-at-risk/national-wildflower-centre-merseyside
The Cullinan one looks interesting - he always built for low impact and efficient running in my experiece.
So it’s the bond markets that threw cold shower over Trumps “they are lining up to kiss my ass” hubris?
But what exactly did they do? And why? If you wish to be ahead on what happens next, those are the questions.
Firstly, bond prices PLUNGED.
Going to RCS post “One person's debt is another person's savings. You can't have one without the other.” I understood falling equity should be partially offset by rising bond prices. But this week the bond prices plunged. Falling equity and plunging bonds, a rare double whammy to make anyone rethink. That answers the first question of what.
Now it gets more complicated as to why. I’ll focus and two inputs, they both likely key players in poor demand for the bonds. There’s a practice called “basic trade” leveraged bets with goal of benefiting from futures price and bonds price, and the turmoil was forcing hedge funds to unwind these. Secondly, and more interestingly considering it would be more embarrassing for the White House if they hadn’t realised this would derail the master plan, China, as we have long time known, is a top holder of treasuries. And this week China let “the people’s currency” weaken against the dollar, perhaps very knowingly letting the markets know “Tarrif War” could become “Currency War.”
What next? The stock markets may have moved positively on announcement of 90 day pause, but have the treasuries moved? If not, the threat of currency war remains spooking the markets like "sword of Damocles" hanging over Trumps tarrif plan. Maybe a lot more humiliating blinking to come 🙂
Stop standing up for that Godless orange hood.
UK brexitted in era of free trade, does the “fair trade” type era support or undermine Brexit?
Friedrich Merz’s promises to transform the country have been scaled back"
https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/04/09/germanys-new-centrist-government-is-reassuring-but-bland
And it has not aged well, @isam is certainly right about that.
I made my way to the end, but only because I was absolutely determined to make it, and even though it because ever more ridiculous.
What could have been an interesting study of a breakdown of society because just ... well... silly and uninteresting.
How many bets do people make where they DON’T intend to benefit from future price moves?
(It’s basis trade, by the way)
Reporter: You said there would be no pause and now there’s a pause
Trump: You have to have flexibility. I could say here’s a wall and I’m going to go through it and you can’t go through the wall. Sometimes you have to be able to go under the wall or around the wall or over the wall...
https://x.com/Acyn/status/1910050567927505084
I'm not sure why the markets are celebrating in quite so exuberant a manner the total breakdown of trade between the world's two largest economies ?
The container ships are still all going around.
https://x.com/typesfast/status/1910174081150025875
They still have to pay 10%.
He is bringing in tariffs as a tax on American consumers in order to fund tax cuts for the super-rich.
What an absolute economic clownshow. It's good tariffs have largely been reduced to 10% rather than being higher for many, but how can you make a deal with the USA or an American company when they're doing the hokey-cokey like this?
‘We are nearly there’: UK and India agree 90% of free trade agreement
Exclusive: Question of visas for Indian workers said to be nearly resolved and deal may be finalised this year
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/apr/09/we-are-nearly-there-uk-and-india-agree-90-of-free-trade-agreement
The Speed Of Human Thought Estimated At A Puzzling 10 Bits Per Second
https://www.iflscience.com/the-speed-of-human-thought-estimated-at-a-puzzling-10-bits-per-second-77389
This is quite persuasive.
https://x.com/diviacaroline/status/1910098020743471260
I just asked ChatGPT if it had any pet theories about how the world works that it hadn’t seen much elsewhere and I liked one of its responses! (I got two and was asked to pick which I preferred)
“Absolutely, here’s one I find compelling and haven’t seen widely discussed:
“Bandwidth economics” as a driver of social structure.
We usually talk about economics in terms of money, resources, or incentives. But what if a major limiting factor in how societies develop—especially in group size, complexity, and norms—is cognitive and emotional bandwidth?
Basically: humans only have so much attention, working memory, and emotional capacity to track others’ motivations, resolve ambiguity, and maintain shared understandings. Many social patterns—like hierarchy, taboo, bureaucratic ritual, or even ideologies—can be seen as compression strategies to make social life cognitively manageable. It’s like lossy JPEGs of messy reality.
So:
•Hierarchies = reduce the number of people you need to track carefully
•Rituals = outsource behavioral decisions to shared scripts
•Ideologies = heuristics for moral/emotional allocation without constant rethinking
•Bureaucracies = attempt to systematize social interactions into predictable formats to minimize cognitive load
In this view, many modern failures (e.g., political polarization, burnout in online activism, collapse of shared reality) are driven by bandwidth overflow. We’re exposed to way more people, data, and decisions than our brains evolved to handle…
So smashing hierarchies, social rituals, and bureaucracies, without serious though about how to reform or optimise them, is particularly stupid.
Kevin Booth was given a worldwide travel ban after a Scottish civil court heard how he attacked his victims in an underground chamber at his remote Highland home and in foreign hotel rooms."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyqj2739zdo
Can’t say I fully understand it.
But it’s a relief
https://x.com/spencerhakimian/status/1910078058503283138?s=61
Anyone portraying this as a victory for Trump is mistaken. As I said yesterday he blinked
https://x.com/conorsen/status/1910149736339812544?s=61
I think it unlikely this will not be resolved soon.
https://warontherocks.com/2025/04/putins-spies-for-hire-what-the-u-k-s-biggest-espionage-trial-revealed-about-kremlin-tactics-in-wartime-europe/