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When the shit hits the tan – politicalbetting.com
When the shit hits the tan – politicalbetting.com
When it comes to winning elections in America, it’s the economy, stupid, which is why I thought Donald Trump would win last year given his lead on the economic questions so these findings are important for the midterms and the 2028 election.
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He basically has two years to do scorched earth and burn everything down before the Dems obviously win the mid-terms and neuter him (to some degree) for his final two years...
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Lisa Nandy has said she no longer wants to scrap the monarchy because Britain needs the Royal family at a time of global “turmoil”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/09/lisa-nandy-changes-mind-abolish-royal-family-keir-starmer/ (£££)
The President saves the King.
Quite the weirdest thing about the supposed “elite regret” at voting for Trump is that he really could not have done more to demonstrate how unsuited he is to any position of responsibility still less one of huge power.
https://bsky.app/profile/seanjones.org/post/3lmf5xp5z4c2h
Trump comes to the UK and is hosted by the King then we will see protests on the streets not seen the Iraq war.
The monarchy could be collateral damage.
This blows any fiscal rules Reeves was talking about completely out of the water. It is not even close. Borrowing at this rate or even turning over maturing gilts is really going to hurt. We are going to need huge cuts in spending and huge increases in taxation to reduce our future borrowing. Any ideas of borrowing for investment now have brutal levels of return required to justify.
This is what happens when you allow debt to rise to 100% of GDP. You are utterly dependent on the kindness and common sense of others. And there is not a lot of either around.
Good food, great bars, young people, no fucking “religion”, major mountains, loads of booze, big party people, really safe, surrounded by amazing scenery, yet also respectful polite and kind
So if the shit hits the tan? - PB - this is where we all go. Or Uruguay
Main leaflet delivery has started - have seen a few Tory leaflets and the Greens but they had delivered them in the wrong division!
I’ve heard, over the years, so many prognostications on The End Of The Monarchy.
#DesparateRepublicanism
The market is pricing the UK as riskier than pretty much any other G7 country, but why?
It has one of the lower debt levels, even at the 100% rate.
I assume we navigated it without too many problems due the excellent economy that was bequeathed to Labour?
(In fairness the other side of the road is in that ward...)
As I've had nothing in over 2 years from the Residents' Association who hold 2 of 3 seats in my ward, it suggests that the boundaries are not well understood!
Where is Starmer?
Frit I tell ya.
Both make us a bad credit risk.
I am struggling to see a way out of this without more QE tbh. Our financial situation is so bad and we are running out of things to sell.
We have to qualify social welfare and NHS spending more, I'm afraid - where most public money goes.
And, no, it won't be popular.
During a time of global, political, demographical turmoil the British people will cling to their ancient, revered, Christian Royal Family, as never before
I think in trying to de-escalate, Starmer is right but the rest of the world isn't listening so his efforts look futile...
He's reportedly planning a 4-mile long military parade, longer than all others in the USA except for victory parades in 1865 and 1946.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKu-u-W5J84
Neguse demolishes Arrington's hypocrisy: "When the stock market dropped 1k points years ago, you rushed to bemoan Biden's actions. You condemned it. Now the market drops 1k points every day for the last week and you claim it's the economy running well. Do you understand why that's a tough argument?"
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lmfap7nobs2y
We're not supposed to take it seriously.
If anyone has any better ideas I would love to read them.
Even Biden imposed some tariffs on Chinese imports to stop dumping but Trump imposing extra tariffs on virtually every other nation's exports to the US is just going to lead to the biggest trade war since the 1930s.
He just has to hope more new manufacturing jobs are created and more buy American to offset rising import costs
If anything the election of Trump shows precisely how much better constitutional monarchies are and it was of course Starmer who invited Trump in reality, he just asked the King to send the invite
China can crush the American economy and is taking actions to do so. Europe has got its heads together and even "lets negotiate" people like Meloni have agreed to slam MAGA with its own tariffs back the other way. Trump almost certainly will up the ante again and around we turn once more.
Starmer thinks he can placate Trump. But if he does join the Axis then the price will be trade with notAmerica.
I understand how developments have confuddled classic right wing Atlantasists. But this isn't America - its Gilead. And I'm right with Ed Davey on this one: Fuck 'em.
It's the election promises on not raising certain taxes.
Those 8.5 million people who can afford £100 a day, or whatever, at a theme park obviously have plenty of spare cash.
It's the US that have imposed tariffs on themselves. Why aren't they tanking?
Or is it simply expected that the rest of the world (Europe especially) will reduce their prices to offset the tariff cost to the end US consumer/purchaser; and therefore European stocks fall whilst US ones don't?
Hubris before Nemesis
That budget should:
Increase IT by at least 2p
Introduce Mays plans for funding care from the capital of the patient immediately.
Start a capital tax.
End the triple lock.
Cut public sector wages by something like 10% across the board.
Cut benefits.
Restrict pension reliefs.
Try, somehow , to find some money for investment, probably by subsidising the lending.
Find the money for increased defence spending.
Radically shake up our immigration system by granting the right to work to everyone already here and restricting future access.
Increase fuel duty , taking advantage of lower oil prices.
And probably a whole lot more deeply unpleasant things besides.
He’s doing the right thing. Retaliating by imposing tariffs on the US simply hurts the consumer. Let others do it if they want and see if we can benefit.
European markets may be digesting the potential impact of so called retaliatory tariffs on its businesses and consumers.
https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1909942081193193725?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/3hZpq0hrtfg
Estonia is not so foreigner friendly. There is a certain type of foreigner that is more suited for Estonia and that foreigner is white Caucasian, definitely not somebody from Asia or from Africa.
So much in a Haas is from China- control, servos, ball screws, linear ways, most of the spindle… it would not shock me if 104% tariffs have a higher impact on their product than our Japan made machines at a 24%..
https://x.com/gak_pdx/status/1909760112161702182
Why?
2. The horse was first domesticated in Kazakhstan - by the Botai people about 4000 years ago. This is where it all began, where we first began breaking them, riding them, then - presumably - eating them. This is like having an oatcake at Gobekli Tepe
Also, really good chips
Although that may be the most sensible policy.
Starmer is doing a good job so far. I cannot see him changing tack for the foreseeable.
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/06/19/gerard-howlin-power-of-the-presidency-relies-on-the-restraint-of-the-president/
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2023/06/23/stephen-collins-president-higgins-may-have-opened-a-pandoras-box/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Cannot see the old soaks who like this happily boycotting.
https://www.sainsburys.co.uk/gol-ui/product/jack-daniels-1l?utm_medium=cpc&cmpid=cpc&catalogId=10241&utm_content=shopping&productId=25688&utm_campaign=20333921261&utm_custom2=759-449-0952&storeId=10151&gclid=CjwKCAjwtdi_BhACEiwA97y8BArj7yV4wjL6-Eosxepj1iv2waHaC8ZhaQl9S_HVdpmhZ4uW-snCPRoCC5AQAvD_BwE&utm_custom1=&langId=44&utm_source=Google&krypto=KH8rkaLmHYrYbwSIzFaQ7hPrliFvrbHWQQ3vgtNdru744WiHTyt6c6EyP040utEwFgI8rvEhxG6QvuEV9Ey5VGHu7P4dBfwb04jm2HNqfCS/923mrM4SXfOW7hLor5wouNeHHqPQE4wXTjwUeDaLDdb1sSWLXcx0zd10NciZsNATBzMcxAc5p9Nn5gDrAfdXIJ5MyRAce4+Bi98XBzX5S1bKzM9xb156T8fHHr5SY3yjS7ALN4KMWbARnW++pm5GnQtMZjV5v3B7iOAeItIto79/a4BcqI+6gJM1HIBMNYOrh+Y/vvjqZ5Gq6Dmcwn7YKBeQz+oHDac0n1IZhbxCvZ7pKKtVrSCa5oj2pMupi4eTmXJBUkQg/JF4VBBYkviXbVyScxipl109dn4OBsnK2ylyAX8zS1afFI2tafYE1MkvHdfiLgu4ZFDv1i6ME2A2&ddkey=https:gb/groceries/jack-daniels-1l
Has Trump cancelled Christmas? China's decorations makers report no US orders
https://x.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1909983881689788652
Slam them in jail. Do worse with the worst
You know who sent the tanks into Tiananmen Square? Deng Xiao Ping, the man who correctly saw that China needed prosperity long before democracy - if it ever needs democracy at all
Deng pulled 1bn Chinese out of poverty, after that. He was right to crush the protests
What a bunch of wallies teenagers these days must be
You must have been the world's most boring teenager. But this is PB, I suppose...
While it might not appeal to the demographic of this site, I'd say that's pretty big news. It's a bit bigger than Noel Edmund's bringing back Blobbyland.
If I was a UK manufacturer selling to the US I'd just do nothing too. No price reduction, just a "here's our prices, it's still £100 per widget, we see that your government is insisting you pay £110 in total of which they'll keep £10 of it. I can google your representative for you so you know who to complain to, but if you expect me to reduce my price to £91 to compensate I'm afraid you're SOL."
The only reason I'd expect us to put tariffs up is if we want to show solidarity with the EU (And negotiate in advance with them as to what we're doing and why) and as a first step back into the EU (if that's what we want).
I'd do nothing at this stage.
The Baltics were subjected to a brutal colonisation & ethnic cleansing, and the Russians now living in the country are the descendants of settler colonists. If they insist on maintaining their Russian identity, then clearly they don't want to assimilate into Estonian culture, and given the geo-political realities are a potential fifth column in the event of a Russian invasion.
It is therefore absolutely appropriate to "count" the population of Estonia in this way.
I am not a fan of Starmer but I believe he is acting sensibly by not retaliating against Trump
On a wider issue this crisis and bond yields make me very worried that Reeves is COE
Never mind, she apparently has taken to saying ' we have your back"
I would suggest she may need to worry more as to who has hers
When I was a teenager, my mates and I were doing drugs, getting drunk and chasing girls… can’t remember anyone saying ‘let’s go Alton Towers’ but maybe I just wasn’t in with the cool crowd