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When the shit hits the tan – politicalbetting.com

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  • TazTaz Posts: 17,499
    HYUFD said:

    DM_Andy said:

    DM_Andy said:

    Just when the BBC doesn't need any more bad publicity, they have spent 2,800 tv licences on restoring and protecting Eric Gill's Prospero and Ariel.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2025/apr/09/bbc-reinstalls-sculpture-by-paedophile-eric-gill-with-new-protective-screen

    Don't care if it's Grade II* listed, there's no way that monster should be celebrated and there's plenty of people who would remove it for free.

    Is displaying his work akin to “celebrating” him?
    This seems a very superstitious idea.
    Yeah, I can see how it might be but it is an bearded bloke (like Gill) with a naked boy. If it was say a sculpture of the BBC coat of arms then it wouldn't have the same disgust factor. I would suggest that most people would not wish public money to be used to protect it and that wouldn't be a passing fad of disapproval.
    “Most people” voted for Brexit, Johnson, and Trump.

    Gill was an outstanding sculptor and the piece in question one of his most notable works. It’s good that Britain preserves its patrimony rather than tear everything down because of whatever the latest moral witch-hunt is.
    Indeed, many of our most brilliant artists, composers, singers and writers and actors and directors have had rather dubious personal lives and morality.

    Caravaggio was a murderer, Michael Jackson almost certainly a paedophile, Gill committed sexual abuse, Harvey Weinstein a rapist.

    You can still appreciate their work and of course they are no longer alive to enjoy royalties or in jail anyway
    Gary Glitter was a wrong un but Rock N Roll parts 1 and 2 are still banging tracks.

    I’m glad I was never a Lostprophets fan.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 856
    HYUFD said:


    Indeed, many of our most brilliant artists, composers, singers and writers and actors and directors have had rather dubious personal lives and morality.

    Caravaggio was a murderer, Michael Jackson almost certainly a paedophile, Gill committed sexual abuse, Harvey Weinstein a rapist.

    You can still appreciate their work and of course they are no longer alive to enjoy royalties or in jail anyway

    I'm not convinced about Jackson tbh (no doubt about the others). He seemed to me more like an overgrown child.

  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,537
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    algarkirk said:

    Lisa Nandy: I no longer want to abolish the Royal family
    ...
    Lisa Nandy has said she no longer wants to scrap the monarchy because Britain needs the Royal family at a time of global “turmoil”.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/09/lisa-nandy-changes-mind-abolish-royal-family-keir-starmer/ (£££)

    The President saves the King.

    I have an upcoming thread saying how the Trump state visit could turn the UK into a republic.

    Trump comes to the UK and is hosted by the King then we will see protests on the streets not seen the Iraq war.

    The monarchy could be collateral damage.
    This isn't going to happen. The reasoning is simple. Ignore the Trump issue altogether, even if it damaged Charles III, which it won't.

    To abolish the monarchy there would have to be a referendum.
    To hold a referendum there has to be a manifesto commitment
    and
    The party making the commitment has to win the election.
    Such a manifesto commitment will be believed by all party strategists to risk a number of votes.
    I do not think anyone would put a possible figure on those votes as less than two million (that's 1,999,999 + me)
    The gap between Lab and Tory in the 2024 wipeout was 2.9 million.

    So it isn't going to happen.
    Indeed, even 55% of 2024 Labour voters prefer the monarchy to becoming a republic, as do 60% of LDs, 81% of Reform voters and 94% of Tory voters so no party is going to put a referendum on the monarchy in their manifesto apart from maybe the Greens.

    https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/Internal_RoyalFavourability_240815.pdf (p4)

    Referendums are of course irrelevant anyway, after all MPs voted down Brexit despite the 2016 Leave vote for 3 years, only the Dec 2019 Conservative majority got Brexit done
    Another of your increasingly bizarre arguments.

    Had MPs 'voted down' Brexit, it wouldn't have happened but they didn't.

    OTOH had there been no referendum there'd have been no Brexit, xo how is the referendum 'irrelevant' ?
    They did, MPs rejected the Withdrawal Agreement from the EU umpteen times after the 2016 EU referendum and instead voted to extend staying in the EU over the Brexits on offer. It was only finally passed when the Conservatives won a majority with a manifesto commitment for Brexit in Dec 2019.

    Indeed, had there been no EU referendum or Remain scraped home in 2016 Brexit may have happened anyway eg George Osborne replaces Cameron as PM in about 2018/19 but loses his majority at a general election in 2019 or 2020 as UKIP surges, Boris takes over as PM and wins a majority for Brexit at the subsequent general election
    Strange, considering the Conservatives were so pro-EEC from the 60’s to the 2010’s.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,459
    Cicero said:

    Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Can anyone explain to me, looking at the markets, why all the European ones are in the red today, down about 3-4%, but the US ones are broadly breakeven.

    No, they can't. Despite some feverish herding of opinion on here, unmatched since the gilded dawn of the SMO, nobody has a fucking clue what is happening or what comes next.
    The bond markets tell a different, but equally incomprehensible story.

    Markets now rate Greek 30 year bonds a safer investment than US 30 year bonds.
    https://x.com/DrewPavlou/status/1909950326180024373
    That's good news. There would be no greater joy in in the world than if Trump fell flat on his face. Well maybe if he took Netanyahu with him
    Add Putin and Erdogan to that list and the world would be a much improved place.
    "Wot - not me?" wails Orban.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,499
    1PM ET today the US treasury is selling $39 Billion of 10 year bonds

    Will China participate as they did yesterday

    Looks like banks weren’t buying

    https://x.com/convertbond/status/1910014948618690594?s=61
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,895

    HYUFD said:


    Indeed, many of our most brilliant artists, composers, singers and writers and actors and directors have had rather dubious personal lives and morality.

    Caravaggio was a murderer, Michael Jackson almost certainly a paedophile, Gill committed sexual abuse, Harvey Weinstein a rapist.

    You can still appreciate their work and of course they are no longer alive to enjoy royalties or in jail anyway

    I'm not convinced about Jackson tbh (no doubt about the others). He seemed to me more like an overgrown child.

    https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/michael-jackson-child-sexual-abuse-allegations-timeline-785746/

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2019/mar/02/channel-4-refuses-to-pull-leaving-neverland-documentary-on-michael-jackson-alleged-abuse
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399
    eek said:

    nova said:

    isam said:

    Starmer’s kids will be 19 & 21 when this theme park opens, if all goes to plan. What are they getting so excited about?

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1909942081193193725?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Dunno, but it says a lot about UK dysfunction that the PM is doing a press conference about the opening of a theme park.
    No idea how accurate their visitor estimates will be, but they're suggesting it would get more than 3 times as many visitors as any other theme park in the UK, and possibly the UK's biggest visitor attraction.

    While it might not appeal to the demographic of this site, I'd say that's pretty big news. It's a bit bigger than Noel Edmund's bringing back Blobbyland.
    It’s the London equivalent on Disneyland and most of Europe have been trying to get it.
    They said after brexit the UK would end up the biggest theme park in the North sea
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785

    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    So what we need is an emergency budget.

    That budget should:

    Increase IT by at least 2p
    Introduce Mays plans for funding care from the capital of the patient immediately.
    Start a capital tax.
    End the triple lock.
    Cut public sector wages by something like 10% across the board.
    Cut benefits.
    Restrict pension reliefs.
    Try, somehow , to find some money for investment, probably by subsidising the lending.
    Find the money for increased defence spending.
    Radically shake up our immigration system by granting the right to work to everyone already here and restricting future access.
    Increase fuel duty , taking advantage of lower oil prices.
    And probably a whole lot more deeply unpleasant things besides.

    I'd agree with a lot of that. Though cutting public sector pay won't work as from where I'm sitting, it's too low already with too many vacancies that can't be filled (at least, not by anyone vaguely competent).

    My suggestion is that there needs to be a one-off raid on wealth, with the explicit purpose of paying off a large chunk of the national debt. We can then use the money saved on interest on more worthwhile things.

    The money received by privatisations over the last 40 years has largely been squandered, and returned to the wealthier and older half of the population via tax cuts. The people currently sitting with property and investments are the beneficiaries of not having paid enough tax over the 40 years and now it is time to recover some of this. A quick Google tells me that National Debt is £2.8tn, value of UK property is £10.8tn (proper research needed - no time) so I propose a one-off 10% tax to halve the national debt. Lots of thinking through and I don't have time now. But that's my starter for 10.
    Something radical is needed. A 10% one-off tax on property though? Who's paying it, and how? By selling it - to whom?
    People like me would be paying it, I suppose. But only once. And then taking our wealth and our businesses somewhere else in Europe.
    I was thinking of the many souls whose only real wealth is in property.

    £1m house? That'll be £100k as a one-off payment please.

    What do you meant you can find anyone to buy it?


    Better to tax wealth at 0.5% or less p.a. And tax all UK citizens, even those with wealth stashed abroad. Let those who love money more than their country sod-off and become Khazak or wherever citizens.
    Fair enough. I'm in favour of higher annual taxes on residential property (along with abolition of stamp duty). But when people start talking about a wealth tax I get nervous about it being applied to the business I've built up and the pension etc I've built up from the past dividends.
    The big problem with tax is that people are always in favour of tax raises on other people. As far as defence is concerned it should have a simple separate tax which should be a flat percentage and everyone should pay it, no exceptions. I'd rather pay a defence tax than see my sons go to war
    In your last sentence, you seem to be saying that there's a choice between paying a defence tax and sending your sons to war.

    It doesn't work like that.
    I think you understood what I meant. If you genuinely didn't then it is this: If paying a specific defence related tax means a reduction in the chances of our young people having to go to war, I would gladly pay it.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522

    PJH said:

    DavidL said:

    So what we need is an emergency budget.

    That budget should:

    Increase IT by at least 2p
    Introduce Mays plans for funding care from the capital of the patient immediately.
    Start a capital tax.
    End the triple lock.
    Cut public sector wages by something like 10% across the board.
    Cut benefits.
    Restrict pension reliefs.
    Try, somehow , to find some money for investment, probably by subsidising the lending.
    Find the money for increased defence spending.
    Radically shake up our immigration system by granting the right to work to everyone already here and restricting future access.
    Increase fuel duty , taking advantage of lower oil prices.
    And probably a whole lot more deeply unpleasant things besides.

    I'd agree with a lot of that. Though cutting public sector pay won't work as from where I'm sitting, it's too low already with too many vacancies that can't be filled (at least, not by anyone vaguely competent).

    My suggestion is that there needs to be a one-off raid on wealth, with the explicit purpose of paying off a large chunk of the national debt. We can then use the money saved on interest on more worthwhile things.

    The money received by privatisations over the last 40 years has largely been squandered, and returned to the wealthier and older half of the population via tax cuts. The people currently sitting with property and investments are the beneficiaries of not having paid enough tax over the 40 years and now it is time to recover some of this. A quick Google tells me that National Debt is £2.8tn, value of UK property is £10.8tn (proper research needed - no time) so I propose a one-off 10% tax to halve the national debt. Lots of thinking through and I don't have time now. But that's my starter for 10.
    Something radical is needed. A 10% one-off tax on property though? Who's paying it, and how? By selling it - to whom?
    People like me would be paying it, I suppose. But only once. And then taking our wealth and our businesses somewhere else in Europe.
    I was thinking of the many souls whose only real wealth is in property.

    £1m house? That'll be £100k as a one-off payment please.

    What do you meant you can find anyone to buy it?


    Better to tax wealth at 0.5% or less p.a. And tax all UK citizens, even those with wealth stashed abroad. Let those who love money more than their country sod-off and become Khazak or wherever citizens.
    Fair enough. I'm in favour of higher annual taxes on residential property (along with abolition of stamp duty). But when people start talking about a wealth tax I get nervous about it being applied to the business I've built up and the pension etc I've built up from the past dividends.
    The big problem with tax is that people are always in favour of tax raises on other people. As far as defence is concerned it should have a simple separate tax which should be a flat percentage and everyone should pay it, no exceptions. I'd rather pay a defence tax than see my sons go to war
    It'd have to be a flat percentage of wealth, though - anything else would be too volatile (the usual issue with hypothecated taxes, and the defence budget needs to be reliably underpinned).

    But we don't currently do wealth taxes, and the 1974 attempt failed badly. You'd need to go back to the 1910-22 system, and they didn't actually raise that much once the costs associated with valuation etc were netted off.

    Are there other countries with successful schemes that we could learn from?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399
    edited April 9
    isam said:

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Starmer’s kids will be 19 & 21 when this theme park opens, if all goes to plan. What are they getting so excited about?

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1909942081193193725?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You think a 19 year old can't enjoy a theme park?! I'm a lot older than that and will happily fling myself down a flume or a rollercoaster.

    You must have been the world's most boring teenager. But this is PB, I suppose...
    Not sure what to make of that!

    When I was a teenager, my mates and I were doing drugs, getting drunk and chasing girls… can’t remember anyone saying ‘let’s go Alton Towers’ but maybe I just wasn’t in with the cool crowd
    Really? There was not one moment pf mu life between the ages of 8 and 21 when a visit to a theme park wouldn't have been brilliant. (A good theme park, mind - Alton Towers or Blackpool.)
    I liked underage booze and interaction with the opposite sex as much as the next horny teemager, but come on - Alton Towers?
    Not as much my cup of tea any more, mind. But when it was, it was absolutely brilliant.
    When I was at junior school as a treat maybe my parents would take me to a theme park, but not when I was old enough to go out and about with my mates! Maybe I’ve read the room wrong, but in my experience of being 14-21, anyone who suggested going to a theme park would have been… well, no one I know would have even suggested it.
    I loved Disneyland Paris. If you're embarrassed I'm sure they'll lend you a child to take round with you
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,011
    edited April 9
    Trump raises China tariff to 125% with immediate effect

    Non retaliatory countries have a 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,499
    edited April 9
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,108

    Trump raises China tariff to 125% with immediate effect

    Non retaliatory countries have a 90 day pause on reciprocal tariffs

    Trump is such a massive fanny my god
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459
    My (few) American friends are in complete denial mode wrt Trump. The Republicans refusing to face reality, and the Democrats simply tending their tomatoes.

    It's very hard to engage with any of them about this.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,427
    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    28m
    FYI, BREAKING: House Rs have put language into the rule on the Budget Resolution to block the House from being forced to vote on legislation revoking Trump’s tariffs. So a vote for this rule is a vote in favor of the Trump Tariffs. The vote is now scheduled in the 3:30-4:30 hour.

    https://x.com/BillKristol
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399
    Cicero said:

    Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Can anyone explain to me, looking at the markets, why all the European ones are in the red today, down about 3-4%, but the US ones are broadly breakeven.

    No, they can't. Despite some feverish herding of opinion on here, unmatched since the gilded dawn of the SMO, nobody has a fucking clue what is happening or what comes next.
    The bond markets tell a different, but equally incomprehensible story.

    Markets now rate Greek 30 year bonds a safer investment than US 30 year bonds.
    https://x.com/DrewPavlou/status/1909950326180024373
    That's good news. There would be no greater joy in in the world than if Trump fell flat on his face. Well maybe if he took Netanyahu with him
    Add Putin and Erdogan to that list and the world would be a much improved place.
    They said on the media show that in the battle of the titans most of the world are rooting for China. If it hadn't been the media show I might wonder whether it was polled or just an educated guess. Though a good one. The world hates a bully.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    Omnium said:

    My (few) American friends are in complete denial mode wrt Trump. The Republicans refusing to face reality, and the Democrats simply tending their tomatoes.

    It's very hard to engage with any of them about this.

    I'm seeing a worrying smattering of "see, capitalism doesn't work!" from left-leaning types. It feels like a tacit acceptance of Trumpism.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,427
    David Axelrod
    @davidaxelrod
    ·
    3h
    Prediction: Trump, in way over his skis and staring down the barrel of economic disaster, will quickly strike a series of mostly unremarkable, bilateral trade deals and declare them the greatest of all time.

    https://x.com/davidaxelrod/status/1909973553510060203
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,108
    So now we’re being tariffed at the same rate as the EU. There’s that Brexit benefit gone already.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,487
    edited April 9
    Omnium said:

    My (few) American friends are in complete denial mode wrt Trump. The Republicans refusing to face reality, and the Democrats simply tending their tomatoes.

    It's very hard to engage with any of them about this.

    I have some American friends, and my experience is different to yours.

    The Republicans I know are all (except one) Reagan Republicans who hate Trump and can't wait for him to be gone. Their opinions on him remind me of listening to a Corbynite MP I know slightly talking about Starmer a couple of years ago. One of them changed her registration from Republican to Independent a while back, which is a big deal as she is involved in local politics in her staunchly Republican community.

    The Democrats are all bitterly hostile in an I-told-you-so way, just as you'd expect.

    It's those reactions that make me think there's some hope for America and the free world after Trump somehow leaves.

    Can't come soon enough.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,427
    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,423
    This BBC update comment seems unintentionally on point about the difficulty in deciphering.

    We are continuing to decipher the specifics of Trump's announcement, stick with us for the latest.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459
    AlsoLei said:

    Omnium said:

    My (few) American friends are in complete denial mode wrt Trump. The Republicans refusing to face reality, and the Democrats simply tending their tomatoes.

    It's very hard to engage with any of them about this.

    I'm seeing a worrying smattering of "see, capitalism doesn't work!" from left-leaning types. It feels like a tacit acceptance of Trumpism.
    Really? From American left-leaners?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,220
    Roger said:

    isam said:

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Starmer’s kids will be 19 & 21 when this theme park opens, if all goes to plan. What are they getting so excited about?

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1909942081193193725?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You think a 19 year old can't enjoy a theme park?! I'm a lot older than that and will happily fling myself down a flume or a rollercoaster.

    You must have been the world's most boring teenager. But this is PB, I suppose...
    Not sure what to make of that!

    When I was a teenager, my mates and I were doing drugs, getting drunk and chasing girls… can’t remember anyone saying ‘let’s go Alton Towers’ but maybe I just wasn’t in with the cool crowd
    Really? There was not one moment pf mu life between the ages of 8 and 21 when a visit to a theme park wouldn't have been brilliant. (A good theme park, mind - Alton Towers or Blackpool.)
    I liked underage booze and interaction with the opposite sex as much as the next horny teemager, but come on - Alton Towers?
    Not as much my cup of tea any more, mind. But when it was, it was absolutely brilliant.
    When I was at junior school as a treat maybe my parents would take me to a theme park, but not when I was old enough to go out and about with my mates! Maybe I’ve read the room wrong, but in my experience of being 14-21, anyone who suggested going to a theme park would have been… well, no one I know would have even suggested it.
    I loved Disneyland Paris. If you're embarrassed I'm sure they'll lend you a child to take round with you
    I have two of my own thanks. Aged 3 & 5, about the right age for theme parks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,895
    Roger said:

    Cicero said:

    Roger said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Can anyone explain to me, looking at the markets, why all the European ones are in the red today, down about 3-4%, but the US ones are broadly breakeven.

    No, they can't. Despite some feverish herding of opinion on here, unmatched since the gilded dawn of the SMO, nobody has a fucking clue what is happening or what comes next.
    The bond markets tell a different, but equally incomprehensible story.

    Markets now rate Greek 30 year bonds a safer investment than US 30 year bonds.
    https://x.com/DrewPavlou/status/1909950326180024373
    That's good news. There would be no greater joy in in the world than if Trump fell flat on his face. Well maybe if he took Netanyahu with him
    Add Putin and Erdogan to that list and the world would be a much improved place.
    They said on the media show that in the battle of the titans most of the world are rooting for China. If it hadn't been the media show I might wonder whether it was polled or just an educated guess. Though a good one. The world hates a bully.
    I doubt it, India and China have serious tensions, Japan and S Korea are v wary of China for obvious reasons. China's oppression of Uighurs does not go down well in the Muslim world and the NATO nations are also hardly pro Beijing. Milei's Argentina and Netanyahu's Israel and Meloni's Italy would certainly be in the Trump corner.

    Indeed most nations would probably hope that if any good from the tariffs emerge for them it is that the US and Chinese both hammer each others exports and they can try and fill in the gaps
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,079

    Bill Kristol
    @BillKristol
    ·
    28m
    FYI, BREAKING: House Rs have put language into the rule on the Budget Resolution to block the House from being forced to vote on legislation revoking Trump’s tariffs. So a vote for this rule is a vote in favor of the Trump Tariffs. The vote is now scheduled in the 3:30-4:30 hour.

    https://x.com/BillKristol

    This sounds like one of those logic puzzles.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,895

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    If no retaliations from nations
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,427
    HYUFD said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    If no retaliations from nations
    Why would they retaliate now? He's looked down the barrel of the gun and didn't like the odds that it was loaded or not.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459
    Fishing said:

    Omnium said:

    My (few) American friends are in complete denial mode wrt Trump. The Republicans refusing to face reality, and the Democrats simply tending their tomatoes.

    It's very hard to engage with any of them about this.

    I have some American friends, and my experience is different to yours.

    The Republicans I know are all (except one) Reagan Republicans who hate Trump and can't wait for him to be gone. Their opinions on him remind me of listening to a Corbynite MP I know slightly talking about Starmer a couple of years ago. One of them changed her registration from Republican to Independent a while back, which is a big deal as she is involved in local politics in her staunchly Republican community.

    The Democrats are all bitterly hostile in an I-told-you-so way, just as you'd expect.

    It's those reactions that make me think there's some hope for America and the free world after Trump somehow leaves.

    Can't come soon enough.
    Well there's always hope for America in that they are really nice people. The policies of their governments have often been pretty nasty though. Very often at the UKs expense.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,427
    Josh Wingrove
    @josh_wingrove

    This is a total reallocation of his tariffs and basically amounts to a 10% universal tariff, a 125% rate for China (which will basically amount to something closer to a trade embargo on China) and *maybe* rates higher than 10 for whomever else he thinks retaliated.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,390
    edited April 9
    HYUFD said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    If no retaliations from nations
    It is a climb down, at least for now. Suggests that the Fed had told them that the Treasury auction might go no bid.

    So, a fragile rally instead of meltdown.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    Trump raises China tariff to 125% with immediate effect

    He knows he’s winning.

    Too many PBers won’t admit Trump is winning this, because they hate him. Don’t be one of them.

    It’s crystal clear in front of us, Everyone, including UK, are being bullied into a Trump favourable deal, in order to protect their economies, interest payment levels, currencies, ability to sell goods at market price, and jobs. Let’s put JOBS. into capital letters. Every governments financial plans and budgets are screwed now.

    The money from the Tarrifs, and from the trade deals everyone has been bullied into signing to lessen the tariff on them, will underwrite the new golden age for America.

    He has used the underlying strength of the USA to screw everybody over, friends and foes. No one negotiates like Trump, except Peaky Blinders - or JR Ewing my Dad said, though had to explain.

    PB are in denial of Trump winning this because of shear hatred of him. But even PB will have to surrender, and kiss Trumps ass too by admitting it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,108
    So everyone is being tariffed at 10% now apart from China it seems
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,305

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Starmer’s kids will be 19 & 21 when this theme park opens, if all goes to plan. What are they getting so excited about?

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1909942081193193725?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You think a 19 year old can't enjoy a theme park?! I'm a lot older than that and will happily fling myself down a flume or a rollercoaster.

    You must have been the world's most boring teenager. But this is PB, I suppose...
    Not sure what to make of that!

    When I was a teenager, my mates and I were doing drugs, getting drunk and chasing girls… can’t remember anyone saying ‘let’s go Alton Towers’ but maybe I just wasn’t in with the cool crowd
    Really? There was not one moment pf mu life between the ages of 8 and 21 when a visit to a theme park wouldn't have been brilliant. (A good theme park, mind - Alton Towers or Blackpool.)
    I liked underage booze and interaction with the opposite sex as much as the next horny teemager, but come on - Alton Towers?
    Not as much my cup of tea any more, mind. But when it was, it was absolutely brilliant.
    I managed to combine the two. When I was 17, my girlfriend and I both skipped school (unbeknown to our parents), and I took her to Alton Towers on my motorbike. We had a great time snogging on the rides and generally messing about. Unfortunately, I managed to crash the bike when we were almost home. We were both OK aside from a few bruises and scrapes, but she went off me after that for some reason.
    My school was just a couple of miles from Alton Towers. If we were not needed for sports on Saturday or Wednesday afternoons, some of us would walk down to the old railway line, follow that to Alton, cross the old canal bed, skirt the security cameras, then climb the wooded bank into the gardens. Once we had to hide behind bushes as a security van pulled up and looked for us.

    I must have gone thirty times over the five years, without paying once. In my last year, they did a deal with the school that meant we all got year passes for a few quid (the same scheme the locals got). I didn't bother and just went in the back way, as the passes meant you had to go in the main entrance, which was much further away.

    I want to look last time I was at AT, and there is not a security fence near the canal to stop you going up the bank.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,185
    Leon said:

    Downtown Almaty feels as clean and prosperous as Zurich, but way more fun. And a lot cleaner than Paris or london

    And safer

    Where did we go wrong?

    We didn't torture journalists
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,427
    US stocks shoot up.

    Four years of this to go...
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    Omnium said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Omnium said:

    My (few) American friends are in complete denial mode wrt Trump. The Republicans refusing to face reality, and the Democrats simply tending their tomatoes.

    It's very hard to engage with any of them about this.

    I'm seeing a worrying smattering of "see, capitalism doesn't work!" from left-leaning types. It feels like a tacit acceptance of Trumpism.
    Really? From American left-leaners?

    Yes. Bernie Sanders is in favour of the Tarrifs. He has made this very clear.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349
    edited April 9

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Downtown Almaty feels as clean and prosperous as Zurich, but way more fun. And a lot cleaner than Paris or london

    And safer

    Where did we go wrong?

    We didn't torture journalists
    What's he doing in Downton Abbey?

    London is really very clean compared to what it used to be like. Westminster council do a good job in that regard.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,220

    Josh Wingrove
    @josh_wingrove

    This is a total reallocation of his tariffs and basically amounts to a 10% universal tariff, a 125% rate for China (which will basically amount to something closer to a trade embargo on China) and *maybe* rates higher than 10 for whomever else he thinks retaliated.

    From here the most likely route is China and the US do a deal in a couple of weeks time which both can claim as a win to their domestic target audiences (both of whom believe whatever they say anyway so it doesnt have to be any good for either).
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 95

    So everyone is being tariffed at 10% now apart from China it seems

    Including the EU? They retaliated today!!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Downtown Almaty feels as clean and prosperous as Zurich, but way more fun. And a lot cleaner than Paris or london

    And safer

    Where did we go wrong?

    We didn't torture journalists
    I can see why we should.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 10,093

    So everyone is being tariffed at 10% now apart from China it seems

    But the EU etc did retaliate? I'm confused.
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,499
    @Nigelb

    Bill Ackman must be living a nightmare.

    https://x.com/billackman/status/1910023000465846348?s=61
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,459

    So everyone is being tariffed at 10% now apart from China it seems

    Tacit admission their equation was fucked...
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,499
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    Downtown Almaty feels as clean and prosperous as Zurich, but way more fun. And a lot cleaner than Paris or london

    And safer

    Where did we go wrong?

    We didn't torture journalists
    I dunno, the ones who got the release copy of the new Dr Who coming up may feel differently.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,743
    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459

    Omnium said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Omnium said:

    My (few) American friends are in complete denial mode wrt Trump. The Republicans refusing to face reality, and the Democrats simply tending their tomatoes.

    It's very hard to engage with any of them about this.

    I'm seeing a worrying smattering of "see, capitalism doesn't work!" from left-leaning types. It feels like a tacit acceptance of Trumpism.
    Really? From American left-leaners?

    Yes. Bernie Sanders is in favour of the Tarrifs. He has made this very clear.
    I didn't know that. I guess thinking about Sanders then tariffs would be a thing, but far more gentle.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,305
    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    And he has severely damaged America's position in the world, and businesses will be more hesitant to invest in the US if they think the orange loon will change the rules because the last person he spoke to tells him it's a good idea.

    It'll also be great to see all the idiots on Twix who were saying the tariffs were brilliant now say the new tariffs are brilliant...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,053
    scampi25 said:

    So everyone is being tariffed at 10% now apart from China it seems

    Including the EU? They retaliated today!!
    Those haven’t come into force yet so not sure what that means . It’s a very confusing picture .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,427
    Robin Brooks
    @robin_j_brooks
    The US is pausing tariffs on non-retaliating countries, while hiking China tariffs to prohibitive levels. China now has an off-ramp if it reverses retaliatory tariffs. But the US may also be admitting to growing discomfort over financial market stress, which China may exploit...

    https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1910026462658454008
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,220

    So everyone is being tariffed at 10% now apart from China it seems

    Even the penguins?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    FTSE futures at 8000
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    Omnium said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Omnium said:

    My (few) American friends are in complete denial mode wrt Trump. The Republicans refusing to face reality, and the Democrats simply tending their tomatoes.

    It's very hard to engage with any of them about this.

    I'm seeing a worrying smattering of "see, capitalism doesn't work!" from left-leaning types. It feels like a tacit acceptance of Trumpism.
    Really? From American left-leaners?

    Yes. Reasonably moderate ones, who hadn't previously been in the Bernie Sanders camp.

    They don't approve of Trump himself, but there's definitely a widespread "well, China was ripping us off" attitude, combined with a hint of deep green-flavoured anti-globalisation ("it's nuts that we're shipping plastic around the world rather than making stuff locally"-type stuff).

    This is largely coming from 30-something SF Bay area tech workers. And is also mixed with a measure of "r/wallstreetbets says buy the dip!" excitement, for maximum confusion.

    It's certainly not as universally negative as the reaction outside the US.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133
    edited April 9
    isam said:

    Roger said:

    isam said:

    Cookie said:

    isam said:

    Eabhal said:

    isam said:

    Starmer’s kids will be 19 & 21 when this theme park opens, if all goes to plan. What are they getting so excited about?

    https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1909942081193193725?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    You think a 19 year old can't enjoy a theme park?! I'm a lot older than that and will happily fling myself down a flume or a rollercoaster.

    You must have been the world's most boring teenager. But this is PB, I suppose...
    Not sure what to make of that!

    When I was a teenager, my mates and I were doing drugs, getting drunk and chasing girls… can’t remember anyone saying ‘let’s go Alton Towers’ but maybe I just wasn’t in with the cool crowd
    Really? There was not one moment pf mu life between the ages of 8 and 21 when a visit to a theme park wouldn't have been brilliant. (A good theme park, mind - Alton Towers or Blackpool.)
    I liked underage booze and interaction with the opposite sex as much as the next horny teemager, but come on - Alton Towers?
    Not as much my cup of tea any more, mind. But when it was, it was absolutely brilliant.
    When I was at junior school as a treat maybe my parents would take me to a theme park, but not when I was old enough to go out and about with my mates! Maybe I’ve read the room wrong, but in my experience of being 14-21, anyone who suggested going to a theme park would have been… well, no one I know would have even suggested it.
    I loved Disneyland Paris. If you're embarrassed I'm sure they'll lend you a child to take round with you
    I have two of my own thanks. Aged 3 & 5, about the right age for theme parks.
    That's a bit young for anything more than Peppa Pig.

    Disney land Paris is OK. Unlike other Disney places they sell alcohol, but otherwise its is pure American hokum.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,204
    When you add 10% onto their various state sales taxes you basically get to VAT with a half exemption for domestic production. Yes I know it's a bit more complicated than that but it's not overly onerous imo
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,499

    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
    Oh come on, has folded here and he had little option and has done it in a way to save face

    He could have got the negotiations anyway with 10% he didn’t need this
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459
    AlsoLei said:

    Omnium said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Omnium said:

    My (few) American friends are in complete denial mode wrt Trump. The Republicans refusing to face reality, and the Democrats simply tending their tomatoes.

    It's very hard to engage with any of them about this.

    I'm seeing a worrying smattering of "see, capitalism doesn't work!" from left-leaning types. It feels like a tacit acceptance of Trumpism.
    Really? From American left-leaners?

    Yes. Reasonably moderate ones, who hadn't previously been in the Bernie Sanders camp.

    They don't approve of Trump himself, but there's definitely a widespread "well, China was ripping us off" attitude, combined with a hint of deep green-flavoured anti-globalisation ("it's nuts that we're shipping plastic around the world rather than making stuff locally"-type stuff).

    This is largely coming from 30-something SF Bay area tech workers. And is also mixed with a measure of "r/wallstreetbets says buy the dip!" excitement, for maximum confusion.

    It's certainly not as universally negative as the reaction outside the US.
    Very interesting. My correspondents over the water tend to be like me - 60ish, and retiring. Unlike me - rather wise.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399
    Embarrassing. Massive climbdown from the US.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067
    nico67 said:

    Trump raises China tariff to 125% with immediate effect

    He knows he’s winning.

    Too many PBers won’t admit Trump is winning this, because they hate him. Don’t be one of them.

    It’s crystal clear in front of us, Everyone, including UK, are being bullied into a Trump favourable deal, in order to protect their economies, interest payment levels, currencies, ability to sell goods at market price, and jobs. Let’s put JOBS. into capital letters. Every governments financial plans and budgets are screwed now.

    The money from the Tarrifs, and from the trade deals everyone has been bullied into signing to lessen the tariff on them, will underwrite the new golden age for America.

    He has used the underlying strength of the USA to screw everybody over, friends and foes. No one negotiates like Trump, except Peaky Blinders - or JR Ewing my Dad said, though had to explain.

    PB are in denial of Trump winning this because of shear hatred of him. But even PB will have to surrender, and kiss Trumps ass too by admitting it.
    You mean he’s so bigly winning that he just capitulated on tariffs with all countries bar China !
    No he hasn’t capitulated. 😂 in your own words he’s tariffed everyone.

    He’s using not tarrifs or levels of them, he’s using FEAR. FEAR of the unknown. The fact they can arbitrarily go up and down is all part of it. He’s left no one any choice but kiss the ring, or arse as he puts it.

    Let me put it like this, as it’s exactly the same thing. In a war, you want to seize all the villages, all the land. So how many villages to you go into and slaughter everybody? Just the one. You use the media to put fear into the mind of everybody else, and you find the villages empty when you get there.

    Likewise in a war, where the side losing achieves a ceasefire - what state of mind are they in when ceasefire dissolves back into war. Surrender mode.

    It’s mind games, as used by businessmen in negotiations. Nothing had materially changed this afternoon, as Trump has no reason to blink. If anything, the fear is rising as planned with whatever move he makes.

  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,053
    edited April 9
    So who in Trumps orbit were told he was going to change course so they could make a lot of money ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,743
    glw said:

    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
    Bollocks.

    Someone must have told Trump that the markets and Treasury could not sustain much more of this nonsense. This is not some clever move, this is Trump basically throwing in the towel because even his dumbest supporters can see that he's made some bloody stupid moves in the last few weeks.
    If a universal 10% is sustainable and is sustained then in terms of the big picture, Trump has won.
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 95
    My best guess is the reduction for the EU will depend on them withdrawing the retaliation although the announcement today was retaliation to the steel tariffs.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,765
    For now, at least, it would seem that Starmer's 'wait and see' approach has been vindicated.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,108

    glw said:

    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
    Bollocks.

    Someone must have told Trump that the markets and Treasury could not sustain much more of this nonsense. This is not some clever move, this is Trump basically throwing in the towel because even his dumbest supporters can see that he's made some bloody stupid moves in the last few weeks.
    If a universal 10% is sustainable and is sustained then in terms of the big picture, Trump has won.
    Won what?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,287
    Quote from JG Ballard (talking to Will Self in 1994).

    "'I don't have a drink until eight in the evening now, after all you have to have something to look forward to."

    https://www.jgballard.ca/media/1994_sept8_evening_standard.html
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,053

    nico67 said:

    Trump raises China tariff to 125% with immediate effect

    He knows he’s winning.

    Too many PBers won’t admit Trump is winning this, because they hate him. Don’t be one of them.

    It’s crystal clear in front of us, Everyone, including UK, are being bullied into a Trump favourable deal, in order to protect their economies, interest payment levels, currencies, ability to sell goods at market price, and jobs. Let’s put JOBS. into capital letters. Every governments financial plans and budgets are screwed now.

    The money from the Tarrifs, and from the trade deals everyone has been bullied into signing to lessen the tariff on them, will underwrite the new golden age for America.

    He has used the underlying strength of the USA to screw everybody over, friends and foes. No one negotiates like Trump, except Peaky Blinders - or JR Ewing my Dad said, though had to explain.

    PB are in denial of Trump winning this because of shear hatred of him. But even PB will have to surrender, and kiss Trumps ass too by admitting it.
    You mean he’s so bigly winning that he just capitulated on tariffs with all countries bar China !
    No he hasn’t capitulated. 😂 in your own words he’s tariffed everyone.

    He’s using not tarrifs or levels of them, he’s using FEAR. FEAR of the unknown. The fact they can arbitrarily go up and down is all part of it. He’s left no one any choice but kiss the ring, or arse as he puts it.

    Let me put it like this, as it’s exactly the same thing. In a war, you want to seize all the villages, all the land. So how many villages to you go into and slaughter everybody? Just the one. You use the media to put fear into the mind of everybody else, and you find the villages empty when you get there.

    Likewise in a war, where the side losing achieves a ceasefire - what state of mind are they in when ceasefire dissolves back into war. Surrender mode.

    It’s mind games, as used by businessmen in negotiations. Nothing had materially changed this afternoon, as Trump has no reason to blink. If anything, the fear is rising as planned with whatever move he makes.

    You need to stay off that cheap sherry ! You’re spinning a total capitulation by Trump as a win !
  • TazTaz Posts: 17,499
    Bill Ackman is crediting Scott Bessent with this.

    https://x.com/billackman/status/1910027726087753905?s=61

    A very relieved guy given he took a massive position in Nike who make in Vietnam
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,108
    10% tariff still increases costs for consumers in the US (ignoring the ridiculous tariffs on China which US consumers will also feel).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,196

    glw said:

    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
    Bollocks.

    Someone must have told Trump that the markets and Treasury could not sustain much more of this nonsense. This is not some clever move, this is Trump basically throwing in the towel because even his dumbest supporters can see that he's made some bloody stupid moves in the last few weeks.
    If a universal 10% is sustainable and is sustained then in terms of the big picture, Trump has won.
    Not really.

    It’s just going to add to inflation and act as a tax on US consumer and global trade volumes.

    Ain’t nobody gonna re-shore shit.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,349
    edited April 9

    glw said:

    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
    Bollocks.

    Someone must have told Trump that the markets and Treasury could not sustain much more of this nonsense. This is not some clever move, this is Trump basically throwing in the towel because even his dumbest supporters can see that he's made some bloody stupid moves in the last few weeks.
    If a universal 10% is sustainable and is sustained then in terms of the big picture, Trump has won.
    Won what?
    Trashing America's reputation for the rest of the century, and handing the leadership to China on a plate.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,305
    AlsoLei said:

    Omnium said:

    AlsoLei said:

    Omnium said:

    My (few) American friends are in complete denial mode wrt Trump. The Republicans refusing to face reality, and the Democrats simply tending their tomatoes.

    It's very hard to engage with any of them about this.

    I'm seeing a worrying smattering of "see, capitalism doesn't work!" from left-leaning types. It feels like a tacit acceptance of Trumpism.
    Really? From American left-leaners?

    Yes. Reasonably moderate ones, who hadn't previously been in the Bernie Sanders camp.

    They don't approve of Trump himself, but there's definitely a widespread "well, China was ripping us off" attitude, combined with a hint of deep green-flavoured anti-globalisation ("it's nuts that we're shipping plastic around the world rather than making stuff locally"-type stuff).

    (Snip)
    It'd probably be better for the world if they didn't buy as much of the plastic stuff, even if it is locally made...
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,394
    edited April 9
    So, if this position lasts longer than Trump's next snack, a year from now the US will have significantly less China in its supply chain. That's probably the position they'd want to be in if they think war over Taiwan is now inevitable.
  • AlsoLeiAlsoLei Posts: 1,522
    scampi25 said:

    So everyone is being tariffed at 10% now apart from China it seems

    Including the EU? They retaliated today!!
    The EU retaliation was to the aluminium & steel tariffs announced in March, and is separate to this month's blanket 20% tariff.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,087
    edited April 9
    Dura_Ace said:

    Can anyone explain to me, looking at the markets, why all the European ones are in the red today, down about 3-4%, but the US ones are broadly breakeven.

    No, they can't. Despite some feverish herding of opinion on here, unmatched since the gilded dawn of the SMO, nobody has a fucking clue what is happening or what comes next.
    The US market has shot up after European markets closed. Not yet clear to me why, but I suspect it’s in the news somewhere. Edit/ now very clear
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    10% tariff still increases costs for consumers in the US (ignoring the ridiculous tariffs on China which US consumers will also feel).

    Yesterday Trump was claiming that his tariffs were bringing in $2 billion per day.

    That's quite a lot of Trump Taxation on American consumers.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459
    Foxy said:

    So everyone is being tariffed at 10% now apart from China it seems

    So Brexit dividend over already?

    I blinked and missed it.
    Well let's see. Brexit was after all a long term vote for some of us that chose to vote that way.

    A massive international mess like this may just yield some benefits - I think certainly it should mean that we can be swifter to support Canada than perhaps otherwise.

    British governments have entirely failed to DO anything with Brexit. That doesn't mean that there isn't anything to do.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,487

    glw said:

    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
    Bollocks.

    Someone must have told Trump that the markets and Treasury could not sustain much more of this nonsense. This is not some clever move, this is Trump basically throwing in the towel because even his dumbest supporters can see that he's made some bloody stupid moves in the last few weeks.
    If a universal 10% is sustainable and is sustained then in terms of the big picture, Trump has won.
    Deluded.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,108
    kjh said:

    glw said:

    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
    Bollocks.

    Someone must have told Trump that the markets and Treasury could not sustain much more of this nonsense. This is not some clever move, this is Trump basically throwing in the towel because even his dumbest supporters can see that he's made some bloody stupid moves in the last few weeks.
    If a universal 10% is sustainable and is sustained then in terms of the big picture, Trump has won.
    Deluded.
    He’s just a troll
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,399

    Trump raises China tariff to 125% with immediate effect

    He knows he’s winning.

    Too many PBers won’t admit Trump is winning this, because they hate him. Don’t be one of them.

    It’s crystal clear in front of us, Everyone, including UK, are being bullied into a Trump favourable deal, in order to protect their economies, interest payment levels, currencies, ability to sell goods at market price, and jobs. Let’s put JOBS. into capital letters. Every governments financial plans and budgets are screwed now.

    The money from the Tarrifs, and from the trade deals everyone has been bullied into signing to lessen the tariff on them, will underwrite the new golden age for America.

    He has used the underlying strength of the USA to screw everybody over, friends and foes. No one negotiates like Trump, except Peaky Blinders - or JR Ewing my Dad said, though had to explain.

    PB are in denial of Trump winning this because of shear hatred of him. But even PB will have to surrender, and kiss Trumps ass too by admitting it.
    You can't still be on the vino?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    glw said:

    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
    Bollocks.

    Someone must have told Trump that the markets and Treasury could not sustain much more of this nonsense. This is not some clever move, this is Trump basically throwing in the towel because even his dumbest supporters can see that he's made some bloody stupid moves in the last few weeks.
    If a universal 10% is sustainable and is sustained then in terms of the big picture, Trump has won.
    We can go even further than that Willy, and explain, what’s to stop Trump arbitrarily putting it up again anytime he wants on selective victims, to help him bully out those trade deals on top of all the Tarrifs fortune?

    USA going to bring in a golden age of money from this manoeuvre.

    Why are PBers so slow on the uptake?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,053

    glw said:

    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
    Bollocks.

    Someone must have told Trump that the markets and Treasury could not sustain much more of this nonsense. This is not some clever move, this is Trump basically throwing in the towel because even his dumbest supporters can see that he's made some bloody stupid moves in the last few weeks.
    If a universal 10% is sustainable and is sustained then in terms of the big picture, Trump has won.
    We can go even further than that Willy, and explain, what’s to stop Trump arbitrarily putting it up again anytime he wants on selective victims, to help him bully out those trade deals on top of all the Tarrifs fortune?

    USA going to bring in a golden age of money from this manoeuvre.

    Why are PBers so slow on the uptake?
    You’re comedy gold this evening !
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,108
    The markets are not rational in the slightest. Apple is up over 10% despite the mega tariffs on China
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,487

    kjh said:

    glw said:

    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
    Bollocks.

    Someone must have told Trump that the markets and Treasury could not sustain much more of this nonsense. This is not some clever move, this is Trump basically throwing in the towel because even his dumbest supporters can see that he's made some bloody stupid moves in the last few weeks.
    If a universal 10% is sustainable and is sustained then in terms of the big picture, Trump has won.
    Deluded.
    He’s just a troll
    For some reason I get you two mixed up. I don't know why. It is not as if your posts or names are similar.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,067

    For now, at least, it would seem that Starmer's 'wait and see' approach has been vindicated.

    Nope. Starmer’s government is working overtime in the background, caving in to Trump in trade deal negotiations, in order to save their economic plan and electoral skin.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,743

    glw said:

    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
    Bollocks.

    Someone must have told Trump that the markets and Treasury could not sustain much more of this nonsense. This is not some clever move, this is Trump basically throwing in the towel because even his dumbest supporters can see that he's made some bloody stupid moves in the last few weeks.
    If a universal 10% is sustainable and is sustained then in terms of the big picture, Trump has won.
    Won what?
    Ideological victory. Supporting the tariffs will become the mainstream position in US politics.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,654
    Me yesterday:

    "If this just ends up with the US and China kicking the shit out of each other, then a positive result for the rest of the world is possible."

    Donald Trump reads my posts!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,133

    glw said:

    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
    Bollocks.

    Someone must have told Trump that the markets and Treasury could not sustain much more of this nonsense. This is not some clever move, this is Trump basically throwing in the towel because even his dumbest supporters can see that he's made some bloody stupid moves in the last few weeks.
    If a universal 10% is sustainable and is sustained then in terms of the big picture, Trump has won.
    Won what?
    Ideological victory. Supporting the tariffs will become the mainstream position in US politics.
    Can America afford many such victories?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,108

    glw said:

    glw said:

    Trump blinks???


    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    10m
    Did Trump just announce a 90 day pause in tariffs?

    Blinks? More like shat himself. I guess someone was finally brave enough to explain how catastrophic things might turn shortly if he didn't act. That said he's now in a huge fight with China and that alone could bring down the house of cards.

    If the GOP has any sense left, and they probably don't, they'd be finding a way to dump Trump ASAP.
    He hasn’t really backed down. Landing on a universal 10% tariff will entrench a Trumpist trade policy as the new normal.
    Bollocks.

    Someone must have told Trump that the markets and Treasury could not sustain much more of this nonsense. This is not some clever move, this is Trump basically throwing in the towel because even his dumbest supporters can see that he's made some bloody stupid moves in the last few weeks.
    If a universal 10% is sustainable and is sustained then in terms of the big picture, Trump has won.
    Won what?
    Ideological victory. Supporting the tariffs will become the mainstream position in US politics.
    Possibly but it’s far far too early to say. For one consumers haven’t really felt the effects of them yet.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,459

    PB at its best tonight

    Total capitulation by Trump to Trump has won

    I would suggest neither and lots of uncertainty ahead

    I wouldn't trust a word Trump says from even one minute to the next

    I expect some are making a fortune on playing these markets

    Trump really is in Truss territory now.
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