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Party brands – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,620
edited April 20 in General
Party brands – politicalbetting.com

On Friday I pointed out that Starmer’s ratings were improving (and Farage’s ratings fell) and it is no surprise to see Labour’s ratings improve whilst Reform’s fall.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,729
    A police officer driving a van which followed two teenagers before they both died in an e-bike crash in Cardiff will not face criminal charges, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said. The CPS said there was insufficient evidence to provide a realistic prospect of conviction.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy5rny9dq6vo
  • BogotaBogota Posts: 119
    Ive just watched the nasdaq rally 1500 points in 15 mins then drop 1000 points in 10 mins. Insane.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,729
    edited April 7
    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Who thought it was a good idea to do a press conference in front of a live car production line where you have to shout over the noise and the horn beeping. And now Sky journalist trying to do the same.

    Beats announcing a GE in a monsoon, I guess.
    In all that gets written in the post match books was there any reason given for that bizarre decision? If only they had a purpose built room build in #10 for such events, oh....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,729
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @TheStalwart

    INSANE market action right now. Market exploded higher on a headline attributed to Kevin Hassett. And now nobody can figure out where it came from and the markets are diving again.

    An 8% surge and then a 3.5% plunge in a matter of seconds

    https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/1909251044632051900

    A $2trillion bounce on a rumour.

    Jeez.
    Never trust CNBC....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,060
    If anyone in the administration is trading the futures market they could make huge money.

    The market bounced by over $2trillion based in a rumour.

    On the positive side it might encourage Trump to actually go ahead and pause the tariffs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,060
    The entire stock market just gained and lost more money in seconds — based on an unverified tweet — than it was worth 30 years ago.
    https://x.com/chrisjollyhale/status/1909252746768765035
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Benpointer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Who thought it was a good idea to do a press conference in front of a live car production line where you have to shout over the noise and the horn beeping. And now Sky journalist trying to do the same.

    Beats announcing a GE in a monsoon, I guess.
    In all that gets written in the post match books was there any reason given for that bizarre decision? If only they had a purpose built room build in #10 for such events, oh....
    Pathetic fallacy was part of the Tory brand.
    May’s collapsing signage, that light fitting coming loose and falling to the stage during the Truss-Sunak debate, Boris getting stuck in a fridge etc.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,504
    @KobeissiLetter

    BREAKING: The White House says it is "unaware" of the 90-day tariff pause being attributed to White House Advisor Hassett.

    The S&P 500 just swung a total of $7 TRILLION of market cap in 30 minutes.

    What is happening here?

    https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1909253449771802923

    #OrangeMonday
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,060
    Nigelb said:

    If anyone in the administration is trading the futures market they could make huge money.

    The market bounced by over $2trillion based in a rumour.

    On the positive side it might encourage Trump to actually go ahead and pause the tariffs.

    Or a journalist...

    CNBC: NO ONE AT WHITE HOUSE IS AWARE OF 90 DAY PAUSE
    https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1909252236858835118
  • BogotaBogota Posts: 119
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    If anyone in the administration is trading the futures market they could make huge money.

    The market bounced by over $2trillion based in a rumour.

    On the positive side it might encourage Trump to actually go ahead and pause the tariffs.

    Or a journalist...

    CNBC: NO ONE AT WHITE HOUSE IS AWARE OF 90 DAY PAUSE
    https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1909252236858835118
    Honestly think charges need to be brought over this nonsense.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1909254331011916256

    JUST IN - White House says 90-day pause in tariffs is "fake news."
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,566
    FPT...
    vik said:

    Nigelb said:

    vik said:

    rcs1000 said:

    turbotubbs said:

    bondegezou said:

    turbotubbs said:

    TheValiant said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Trump’s decision to single-handedly hobble the world economy and immiserate tens of millions of Americans has presented his fellow Republicans with a stark choice. Do they continue to kiss his orange butt and slavishly nod along to every nonsensical whim of their idiot Golfer King as he leads them into a recession and almost certain electoral apocalypse? Or do they defy him, splitting the party and opening themselves to a primary challenge … and possible electoral apocalypse?

    The good news is that some GOP senators and members of Congress are actually disturbed enough by the prospect of their voters starving in the street that they have taken steps to push back against this grotesquely self-destructive trade policy. The not so good news is that the pushback is hesitant and half-hearted — and the majority of the party remains ready to torture and impoverish their constituents for the greater glory of Trump.

    The tariffs, and the quick slide into economic calamity, have sparked real resistance. They’ve also demonstrated just how craven and/or hypnotized the GOP has become, and the extent to which most Republicans would do anything — literally anything — rather than point out that the emperor is wearing a grotesque meat suit made of the skin of his constituents.

    Republican dissent is a hopeful sign. The hard limits on it, though, given the magnitude of the crisis, are a bleak reminder of how we ended up in this nightmare to begin with. Any successful resistance is going to require a fair number of Republicans to abandon their orange idol. It’s good to see them starting to do that. But it’s undeniably grim that the fate of the nation rests to any degree at all on these, gutless, spineless, christofascist quislings.

    https://www.publicnotice.co/p/trump-tariffs-republican-resistance

    Posting someone else's thoughts get no 'like' from me, but responding to the first point;

    What electorial apocalypse?
    It's one man, one vote in Trumpland, and Trumps the man and he's got the vote.

    I suppose Americans have to have a coping mechanism and pretending 2026 or 2028 are going to be free and fair is the only way forward at this point.
    What do you think will happen in 2026 or 2028 to make the elections unfree and/unfair? Are you thinking concentration camps? Or just SS troops at all the polling stations?

    I can believe that Trump will try to find a way to have more than 2 terms. It seems an odd limitation, and most people would happily have Obama run against Trump in 2028, but the idea that somehow the last free and fair election in the US has already happened strikes me as a little hysterical.
    It is easy to imagine an increase in the fiddling of elections we've seen to date: gerrymandering, no polling stations in Dem areas, "cleaning" electoral rolls, legislators stepping in to "correct" election results, biased social media, etc. Then you move up to arresting political opponents, maybe sending them to El Salvador.
    "Then you move up to arresting political opponents, maybe sending them to El Salvador" - any evidence of this? And we are not immune to the odd bit of tinkering in the UK, are we! Voter ID for one.
    I think @bondegezou is outlining a possible path forward.

    We've already seen - in North Carolina - a court toss out tens of thousands of ballots in a closely contested election.

    https://apnews.com/article/north-carolina-election-2024-griffin-riggs-judges-fe51ca7bb095b9dcb305030220e69606
    The issue with the North Carolina election is that it was exceedingly close. The Democrat (Riggs) won by around 600 votes. If Riggs had won by hundreds of thousands of votes, then Griffen would have quietly conceded.

    Also, it's worth noting that Gore was trying similar shenanigans with the Florida result in 2000, meaning he was trying to force selective recounts only in areas of the State where he thought he would gain votes. Meaning: the Democrats aren't exactly angels when it comes to trying to use courts to overturn election results...
    No, Gore was just dumb.
    A statewide recount might well have seen him elected.
    My point was that the North Carolina case cannot be used as evidence to prove that the "2026 and 2028 elections will unfree and/or unfair".

    These types of shenanigans have a long history in the United States, and take place when elections are very close. And both the Democrats and the Republicans engage in these shenanigans.

    Another example: in the 2024 Senate election in Pennsylvania, the Democrat Casey refused to concede even when it was obvious that he had lost. The matter went before the courts, which issued a ruling favourable to the Republican McCormick. The Democrat County Commissioner in Bucks County then said that she would defy the ruling because: "I think we all know that precedent by a court doesn’t matter anymore in this country ... People violate laws anytime they want. So, for me, if I violate this law, it’s because I want a court to pay attention. There’s nothing more important than counting votes." She was eventually told by the Pennsylvania Governor to comply with the ruling.

    Now, if the 2026 and/or 2028 elections come down to a few hundred votes in one State, then definitely, we might see some attempt to "steal" the election. But, if in 2026, for example, the Democrats win 30 or 40 additional House Seats, then there is no chance that Trump or the Republicans will be able to overturn the election.
    You are looking at the past and expecting the future to be the same. That is an ever less safe prediction. Trump is blowing through accepted norms on numerous fronts. We're seeing that right now in terms of trade policy, but it's not just in trade policy that his actions are unprecedented. He's ignoring court rulings left, right and centre. Those are still working their way through the courts, so we don't know what happens next, but there is a reasonable chance that Trump simply does not comply with rulings, unlike the Democrat County Commissioner in Bucks County.

    Let us not forget his 2020/1 fake electors scheme and support for the storming of Congress. He has now gotten away with that and pardoned those who took part, including violent criminals. That's a level of "shenanigan" beyond anything the Democrats have done (well, in the last 60 years, at least).

    The Democrats aren't saints and there is a long history of dodgy election practices in the US, but Trump goes beyond what we've seen before.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,060
    Bogota said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    If anyone in the administration is trading the futures market they could make huge money.

    The market bounced by over $2trillion based in a rumour.

    On the positive side it might encourage Trump to actually go ahead and pause the tariffs.

    Or a journalist...

    CNBC: NO ONE AT WHITE HOUSE IS AWARE OF 90 DAY PAUSE
    https://x.com/PolymarketIntel/status/1909252236858835118
    Honestly think charges need to be brought over this nonsense.
    Also reported on Bloomberg, I think ?

    Seems to have been based on this empty statement:

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1909222878244979085
    KILMEADE: Would Trump consider a 90 days pause in tariffs?

    HASSETT: I think the president is gonna decide what the president is gonna decide ... even if you think there will be some negative effect from the trade side, that's still a small share of GDP
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,566
    FPT...
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1909246278514377078

    This is NOT SUSTAINABLE! The United States can't lose $1.9 trillion on trade...

    The US doesn't lose $1.9 trillion on trade. The US gets products it wants that cost $1.9 trillion. That is how commerce works. Trump does not seem to understand this.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,518
    Trailer for the next Mission Impossible movie is now out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hpg9P12Cz5w
  • isamisam Posts: 42,294
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1909254331011916256

    JUST IN - White House says 90-day pause in tariffs is "fake news."

    Reminiscent of one of my favourite chapters from my favourite book - "How a Gardener may get rid of the Dormice that eat His Peaches"

    https://www.owleyes.org/text/count-of-monte-cristo/read/chapter-61---how-gardener-may-get-rid-dor
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,060
    My diagnosis of FOMO was borne out, though.

    There are clearly a lot of people still ready to rush money into the market based on nothing but a rumour.
    Which might be fine if the administration comes to its senses in the next day or so.

    Failing that, it means we're a long way from the bottom.

    Seems a bit like the 2000 crash, but on fast forward.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,761
    Nigelb said:

    My diagnosis of FOMO was borne out, though.

    There are clearly a lot of people still ready to rush money into the market based on nothing but a rumour.
    Which might be fine if the administration comes to its senses in the next day or so.

    Failing that, it means we're a long way from the bottom.

    Seems a bit like the 2000 crash, but on fast forward.

    I think it shows how tricky it will be to time this market. You're basically guessing when will Trump reverse course. And to be fair, if he does reverse, things will look a lot more positive.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,540
    Nigelb said:

    My diagnosis of FOMO was borne out, though.

    There are clearly a lot of people still ready to rush money into the market based on nothing but a rumour.
    Which might be fine if the administration comes to its senses in the next day or so.

    Failing that, it means we're a long way from the bottom.

    Seems a bit like the 2000 crash, but on fast forward.

    That's right, the flash spike is based on market hopes that this is all a bad dream, but it isn't.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,113
    Thanks for the article. Some points:

    IANAE about past polling, but the most obvious feature is that no party is popular. This is important in two ways: a party could break away from the field WRT popularity.

    And I think if that happened it would be Labour. The Tories are unpopular even though they are non in power. Though they probably will recover (history, past performance) it will be for reasons that cannot be perceived at the moment, and it won't be soon.

    IMHO Reform have the largest and most committed group who will never vote for them. Which places both a limit on their reach, and gives potential votes to others. Esspecially if, as I expect, more attention is given to making far more all seats a two way fight - where voters vote in greater numbers for whichever of the top two they dislike least.

    In which event, unpopularity is as important as popularity in deciding who wins.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,261
    Latest Rasmussen (leans GOP) just out on Trump approval.
    Approve 48% Disapprove 51%

    Five days ago, the figures were
    Approve 51% Disapprove 48%

    Quite a swing. Reflected in Betfair market on winning party in 2028.
    Republican out to 2.08. Still much more to go out I think.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited April 7
    Scott_xP said:

    @sahilkapur

    This Senate bill to slap limits on the president’s tariff power now has SEVEN Republican sponsors:

    • Grassley
    • Moran
    • Murkowski
    • McConnell
    • Tillis
    • Young
    • Collins

    https://x.com/sahilkapur/status/1909243502140981393

    How many are needed?

    Senate is 53-47.

    60 votes required to pass legislation in the Senate - which would imply it requires 13 Reps to join the 47 Dems.

    But doesn't it require a 2/3 majority to over-ride a Presidential veto? That would imply 20 Reps plus the 47 Dems to get to 67.

    And what about the House? Very few Reps need to join Dems to pass a vote but no chance if a 2/3 majority is needed.
  • BogotaBogota Posts: 119
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    My diagnosis of FOMO was borne out, though.

    There are clearly a lot of people still ready to rush money into the market based on nothing but a rumour.
    Which might be fine if the administration comes to its senses in the next day or so.

    Failing that, it means we're a long way from the bottom.

    Seems a bit like the 2000 crash, but on fast forward.

    That's right, the flash spike is based on market hopes that this is all a bad dream, but it isn't.
    We have to allow for the fact that leak was used to get some big players out of their longs.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,294
    edited April 7
    Scott_xP said:

    MAGA have been hoist by their own retard...

    Blimey, good job DEI is so last season
  • BogotaBogota Posts: 119
    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    My diagnosis of FOMO was borne out, though.

    There are clearly a lot of people still ready to rush money into the market based on nothing but a rumour.
    Which might be fine if the administration comes to its senses in the next day or so.

    Failing that, it means we're a long way from the bottom.

    Seems a bit like the 2000 crash, but on fast forward.

    I think it shows how tricky it will be to time this market. You're basically guessing when will Trump reverse course. And to be fair, if he does reverse, things will look a lot more positive.
    It will look even more of a clownshow if he reverses course now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,079
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A police officer driving a van which followed two teenagers before they both died in an e-bike crash in Cardiff will not face criminal charges, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said. The CPS said there was insufficient evidence to provide a realistic prospect of conviction.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy5rny9dq6vo

    The CPS using not exactly neutral language:

    A Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) statement said: "We fully understand that this will be disappointing news for the families of both boys and will offer a meeting with them to explain our reasoning further."
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,518
    edited April 7
    isam said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1909254331011916256

    JUST IN - White House says 90-day pause in tariffs is "fake news."

    Reminiscent of one of my favourite chapters from my favourite book - "How a Gardener may get rid of the Dormice that eat His Peaches"

    https://www.owleyes.org/text/count-of-monte-cristo/read/chapter-61---how-gardener-may-get-rid-dor
    See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hummingbird_Project

    I have looked at polls, models and bets six ways from Sunday for over ten years now, but even with all that work my profits are still just measured in the thousands. Cheating/theft seems far more productive.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,504
    isam said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MAGA have been hoist by their own retard...

    Blimey, good job DEI is so last season
    EXACTLY !!
  • eekeek Posts: 30,878
    algarkirk said:

    Thanks for the article. Some points:

    IANAE about past polling, but the most obvious feature is that no party is popular. This is important in two ways: a party could break away from the field WRT popularity.

    And I think if that happened it would be Labour. The Tories are unpopular even though they are non in power. Though they probably will recover (history, past performance) it will be for reasons that cannot be perceived at the moment, and it won't be soon.

    IMHO Reform have the largest and most committed group who will never vote for them. Which places both a limit on their reach, and gives potential votes to others. Esspecially if, as I expect, more attention is given to making far more all seats a two way fight - where voters vote in greater numbers for whichever of the top two they dislike least.

    In which event, unpopularity is as important as popularity in deciding who wins.

    That’s always been the case - remember my theory that a lot of people (for decades) have voted not for the party their prefer but for the party with the best chance of defeating the party they hate.

    And that often used to be the Tories (especially in Liverpool and midland former mining villages) but is very much the case, as you say, for Reform
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,243
    viewcode said:

    Trailer for the next Mission Impossible movie is now out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hpg9P12Cz5w

    Lots of London, including a close-up of Nelson.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,947
    edited April 7
    Anyone daytrading on margin here btw ?

    I am most definitely not btw.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 15,566
    Bogota said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    My diagnosis of FOMO was borne out, though.

    There are clearly a lot of people still ready to rush money into the market based on nothing but a rumour.
    Which might be fine if the administration comes to its senses in the next day or so.

    Failing that, it means we're a long way from the bottom.

    Seems a bit like the 2000 crash, but on fast forward.

    I think it shows how tricky it will be to time this market. You're basically guessing when will Trump reverse course. And to be fair, if he does reverse, things will look a lot more positive.
    It will look even more of a clownshow if he reverses course now.
    In the past, he has frequently reversed tariffs. Even more frequently, he starts with one number and then announces another number, seemingly because he wants attention. So it seems likely that the tariffs announced will not be at those levels for ever more. But whether that means he goes up or down... if I knew that, I could make a killing in the markets.

    Does it look like "even more of a clownshow"? The MAGA media empire will spin whatever he does as a win. Fox News will explain to its audience how Trump has shown the world who's boss, or something. That might be enough for Trump's ego.

    But, at the same time, this is all damaging the US's reputation. Businesses like stability and Trump doesn't do stability. His erratic tariff policy in his first term his US investment. It will be worse this time.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,043
    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A police officer driving a van which followed two teenagers before they both died in an e-bike crash in Cardiff will not face criminal charges, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said. The CPS said there was insufficient evidence to provide a realistic prospect of conviction.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy5rny9dq6vo

    The CPS using not exactly neutral language:

    A Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) statement said: "We fully understand that this will be disappointing news for the families of both boys and will offer a meeting with them to explain our reasoning further."
    The clue could be in the name prosecution, it is not their job to use neutral language. Police officers are virtually never convicted of this sort of stuff because a large part of the country, and therefore juries, will give them enormous leeway to behave however they see fit, whether within the law or not.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,604
    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A police officer driving a van which followed two teenagers before they both died in an e-bike crash in Cardiff will not face criminal charges, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said. The CPS said there was insufficient evidence to provide a realistic prospect of conviction.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy5rny9dq6vo

    The CPS using not exactly neutral language:

    A Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) statement said: "We fully understand that this will be disappointing news for the families of both boys and will offer a meeting with them to explain our reasoning further."
    Perhaps not this brutal, but...

    "Your children were just the sort of scrotes that juries hate. Chance of getting a jury to convict the coppers? Nil.... Save yourselves the cost of buying a new outfit for your day in court."
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,247
    bondegezou said:

    FPT...

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1909246278514377078

    This is NOT SUSTAINABLE! The United States can't lose $1.9 trillion on trade...

    The US doesn't lose $1.9 trillion on trade. The US gets products it wants that cost $1.9 trillion. That is how commerce works. Trump does not seem to understand this.
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    52m
    We hear a lot about Trump Derangement Syndrome. The reality is Donald Trump is becoming a raving madman. And it’s time to acknowledge it.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1909246432944574800
  • BogotaBogota Posts: 119
    Latest tweet from the genius.


    The United States has a chance to do something that should have been done DECADES AGO. Don’t be Weak! Don’t be Stupid! Don’t be a PANICAN (A new party based on Weak and Stupid people!). Be Strong, Courageous, and Patient, and GREATNESS will be the result!
    3:56 PM · Apr 7, 2025
    ·
    114K
    Views
    https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1909258878035828788
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone daytrading on margin here btw ?

    I am most definitely not btw.

    Someone made a killing with those reports of a 90-day hiatus, subsequently denied.

    (Not me obvs.)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    Scott_xP said:

    MAGA have been hoist by their own retard...

    I coined that term, on here, some time ago.

    However a google search reveals I did not come up with it first, it was used in a 2012 episode of Veep (which I’ve never seen).
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,604
    rottenborough said:

    bondegezou said:

    FPT...

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1909246278514377078

    This is NOT SUSTAINABLE! The United States can't lose $1.9 trillion on trade...

    The US doesn't lose $1.9 trillion on trade. The US gets products it wants that cost $1.9 trillion. That is how commerce works. Trump does not seem to understand this.
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    52m
    We hear a lot about Trump Derangement Syndrome. The reality is Donald Trump is becoming a raving madman. And it’s time to acknowledge it.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1909246432944574800
    Becoming? Where's he been?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,060
    .
    viewcode said:

    Trailer for the next Mission Impossible movie is now out: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hpg9P12Cz5w

    Who is that at 1m ?

    It looks like Tramell Tillman (Milchick in Severance).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,247
    Clem Burke the drummer from Blondie has passed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,247
    Benpointer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Anyone daytrading on margin here btw ?

    I am most definitely not btw.

    Someone made a killing with those reports of a 90-day hiatus, subsequently denied.

    (Not me obvs.)
    Someone in the White House?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,247
    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    Trump is so visibly not in his right mind.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    MarqueeMark said:

    rottenborough said:

    bondegezou said:

    FPT...

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1909246278514377078

    This is NOT SUSTAINABLE! The United States can't lose $1.9 trillion on trade...

    The US doesn't lose $1.9 trillion on trade. The US gets products it wants that cost $1.9 trillion. That is how commerce works. Trump does not seem to understand this.
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    52m
    We hear a lot about Trump Derangement Syndrome. The reality is Donald Trump is becoming a raving madman. And it’s time to acknowledge it.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1909246432944574800
    Becoming? Where's he been?
    Dan Hodges is supposed to be a political commentator.
    Donald Trump is not “raving mad”. That’s a stupid and totally unexplanatory assessment.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,604
    edited April 7
    Trump has spoken to the Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba this morning, and says that the country has treated the US "very poorly on trade".

    "They don’t take our cars, but we take MILLIONS of theirs. Likewise Agriculture, and many other '"things"."

    He does know that Japan drives on the left - and US car manufacturers can't be arsed to make them?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Scott_xP said:

    @KobeissiLetter

    BREAKING: The White House says it is "unaware" of the 90-day tariff pause being attributed to White House Advisor Hassett.

    The S&P 500 just swung a total of $7 TRILLION of market cap in 30 minutes.

    What is happening here?

    https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1909253449771802923

    #OrangeMonday

    The White House is probably genuinely unaware of what's going on half the time, and is lying about it the other half.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,247
    Gardenwalker said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    rottenborough said:

    bondegezou said:

    FPT...

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/trump_repost/status/1909246278514377078

    This is NOT SUSTAINABLE! The United States can't lose $1.9 trillion on trade...

    The US doesn't lose $1.9 trillion on trade. The US gets products it wants that cost $1.9 trillion. That is how commerce works. Trump does not seem to understand this.
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    52m
    We hear a lot about Trump Derangement Syndrome. The reality is Donald Trump is becoming a raving madman. And it’s time to acknowledge it.

    https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1909246432944574800
    Becoming? Where's he been?
    Dan Hodges is supposed to be a political commentator.
    Donald Trump is not “raving mad”. That’s a stupid and totally unexplanatory assessment.
    Hmmm. See @Chris 's comment below.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,483
    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    I think he will backtrack, but while claiming concessions from other countries. No doubt some tariffs will stay.

    Meanwhile some people can make a killing on the volatility so everyone's a winner!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,504
    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,247
    Trump threatens China with even higher tariffs if they don't back down.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,206
    kamski said:

    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    I think he will backtrack, but while claiming concessions from other countries. No doubt some tariffs will stay.

    Meanwhile some people can make a killing on the volatility so everyone's a winner!
    I’ve spent part of today wondering what constitutes insider trading.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    kamski said:

    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    I think he will backtrack, but while claiming concessions from other countries. No doubt some tariffs will stay.

    Meanwhile some people can make a killing on the volatility so everyone's a winner!
    I think people really have to give up the idea Trump is some kind of clever negotiator.

    He is clinically deluded, and he has lost contact with reality.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,247
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE


    At some point corporate america and wall street are gonna totally snap over this administration.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,878
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kamski said:

    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    I think he will backtrack, but while claiming concessions from other countries. No doubt some tariffs will stay.

    Meanwhile some people can make a killing on the volatility so everyone's a winner!
    I’ve spent part of today wondering what constitutes insider trading.
    With regard to today’s market? Unless you have seen your capital requirements and sold your shares I doubt it matters - you have no more clue than the rest of us.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,540
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE

    You know who else went mad in a bunker?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,604
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE

    Does Xi have the bigger dick to swing?

    Paging Stormy Daniels...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE

    OK, now we should brace.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,259
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kamski said:

    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    I think he will backtrack, but while claiming concessions from other countries. No doubt some tariffs will stay.

    Meanwhile some people can make a killing on the volatility so everyone's a winner!
    I’ve spent part of today wondering what constitutes insider trading.
    I wouldn’t like to be the Head of Regulatory Affairs for a firm that was involved in insider trading this afternoon.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,247
    Gardenwalker said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE

    OK, now we should brace.
    I'm sure the market will take this latest Trump tweet in a calm and relaxed manner.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,469
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE

    He's definitely doing this for the ratings. The markets haven't been quite as catastrophic as they might've been today, so...
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,089
    MarqueeMark said:

    Trump has spoken to the Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba this morning, and says that the country has treated the US "very poorly on trade".

    "They don’t take our cars, but we take MILLIONS of theirs. Likewise Agriculture, and many other '"things"."

    He does know that Japan drives on the left - and US car manufacturers can't be arsed to make them?

    Lefthand/righthand drive is irrelevant. Americans choose to buy Japanese cars. In no way is that Japan treating the US "very poorly" on car trade. If you are going to blame anyone at al, then it's the Americans who are buying those cars.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,206
    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kamski said:

    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    I think he will backtrack, but while claiming concessions from other countries. No doubt some tariffs will stay.

    Meanwhile some people can make a killing on the volatility so everyone's a winner!
    I’ve spent part of today wondering what constitutes insider trading.
    With regard to today’s market? Unless you have seen your capital requirements and sold your shares I doubt it matters - you have no more clue than the rest of us.
    My job (and my team of savants and weirdos) have spent the past few days looking for unusual trades aka market manipulation and insider trading.

    Right now I feel Chief Inspector Dreyfus in the Pink Panther film when he’s in the lunatic asylum wearing a straight jacket and writing on the walls with his feet.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,113
    noneoftheabove said:

    tlg86 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A police officer driving a van which followed two teenagers before they both died in an e-bike crash in Cardiff will not face criminal charges, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said. The CPS said there was insufficient evidence to provide a realistic prospect of conviction.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy5rny9dq6vo

    The CPS using not exactly neutral language:

    A Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) statement said: "We fully understand that this will be disappointing news for the families of both boys and will offer a meeting with them to explain our reasoning further."
    The clue could be in the name prosecution, it is not their job to use neutral language. Police officers are virtually never convicted of this sort of stuff because a large part of the country, and therefore juries, will give them enormous leeway to behave however they see fit, whether within the law or not.
    Seems pretty neutral to me. It's always possible that what is being said about 'insufficent evidence' is true. Yes, juries allow leeway to coppers - I have seen it done to an outrageous degree - but OTOH police officers have to act, without time to review, consult, publish a Green Paper and legislate, and in the moment in a hot situation and they are human. Without pretty strong protections no-one would be willing to do the job.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,504
    https://x.com/TheMaineWonk/status/1909090834911232025
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,206
    Fairliered said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kamski said:

    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    I think he will backtrack, but while claiming concessions from other countries. No doubt some tariffs will stay.

    Meanwhile some people can make a killing on the volatility so everyone's a winner!
    I’ve spent part of today wondering what constitutes insider trading.
    I wouldn’t like to be the Head of Regulatory Affairs for a firm that was involved in insider trading this afternoon.
    Yup.

    I hope you’re all feeling my pain.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,749
    edited April 7
    So Trumps allowed to hammer China but they’re not allowed to respond . If the Chinese don’t back down or some agreement is reached then the markets are going to completely implode .
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,206
    I also sent out a message at 6.44 am which said

    ‘TODAY IS NOT THE DAY FOR A FAT FINGER TYPO.’
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,060
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kamski said:

    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    I think he will backtrack, but while claiming concessions from other countries. No doubt some tariffs will stay.

    Meanwhile some people can make a killing on the volatility so everyone's a winner!
    I’ve spent part of today wondering what constitutes insider trading.
    With regard to today’s market? Unless you have seen your capital requirements and sold your shares I doubt it matters - you have no more clue than the rest of us.
    My job (and my team of savants and weirdos) have spent the past few days looking for unusual trades aka market manipulation and insider trading.

    Right now I feel Chief Inspector Dreyfus in the Pink Panther film when he’s in the lunatic asylum wearing a straight jacket and writing on the walls with his feet.
    Can you get Trump arrested ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,060
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE

    Are you thinking of retracting, @Gardenwalker ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,206
    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kamski said:

    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    I think he will backtrack, but while claiming concessions from other countries. No doubt some tariffs will stay.

    Meanwhile some people can make a killing on the volatility so everyone's a winner!
    I’ve spent part of today wondering what constitutes insider trading.
    With regard to today’s market? Unless you have seen your capital requirements and sold your shares I doubt it matters - you have no more clue than the rest of us.
    My job (and my team of savants and weirdos) have spent the past few days looking for unusual trades aka market manipulation and insider trading.

    Right now I feel Chief Inspector Dreyfus in the Pink Panther film when he’s in the lunatic asylum wearing a straight jacket and writing on the walls with his feet.
    Can you get Trump arrested ?
    I want a bigger punishment, say we accidentally fired a missile from Trident at the White House.
  • eekeek Posts: 30,878
    eristdoof said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    Trump has spoken to the Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba this morning, and says that the country has treated the US "very poorly on trade".

    "They don’t take our cars, but we take MILLIONS of theirs. Likewise Agriculture, and many other '"things"."

    He does know that Japan drives on the left - and US car manufacturers can't be arsed to make them?

    Lefthand/righthand drive is irrelevant. Americans choose to buy Japanese cars. In no way is that Japan treating the US "very poorly" on car trade. If you are going to blame anyone at al, then it's the Americans who are buying those cars.
    And the fact that while Japan makes small and medium size cars that Americans want to buy, America make big cars that are impractical (and so undesirable) outside of the USA.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,060
    rottenborough said:

    Trump threatens China with even higher tariffs if they don't back down.

    Why would they ?

    They probably hold more cards than Trump - and don't have an electorate to answer to. Which, for now, Trump and his party of enablers do.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    edited April 7
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE

    Are you thinking of retracting, @Gardenwalker ?
    Nervous laughter.

    I just think it doesn’t help anybody to pronounce Trump as mad. His policies, sure.

    Even then, there is a logic of sorts behind what we are experiencing, per Bessent on Tucker Carlson.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,350
    Good afternoon

    Utter dismay and almost speechless at the insanity of all this

    I am not really posting much as there is little to be said as the chorus of opinion is negative for Trump and a deep desire to see him defeated, but that seems very unlikely and wishful thinking

    The weather is beautiful, the birds are singing and making their nests, and sitting in the garden with a cuppa tea and a rich tea with the media off is very good for my well being
  • eekeek Posts: 30,878
    nico67 said:

    So Trumps allowed to hammer China but they’re not allowed to respond . If the Chinese don’t back down or some agreement is reached then the markets are going to completely implode .

    China isn’t going to back down - I wonder when they start to sell their US treasury bonds
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    edited April 7
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE

    Does anyone really think that, if Trump isn't removed from office, a couple of years on he isn't going to be threatening other countries with nuclear weapons rather than tariffs?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,113
    Chris said:

    kamski said:

    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    I think he will backtrack, but while claiming concessions from other countries. No doubt some tariffs will stay.

    Meanwhile some people can make a killing on the volatility so everyone's a winner!
    I think people really have to give up the idea Trump is some kind of clever negotiator.

    He is clinically deluded, and he has lost contact with reality.
    Standing back from the tornado and reviewing, this seems to be the case:

    Sometimes Trump and Trumpians indicate that the purpose of tariffs is to get coumtries to negotiate their way to a level playing field because the global free trade thingy has got skewed.

    Other times the same sources indicate that Trumpian economics is truly old style mercantilism/fixed cake size/imperialism/protectionism/isolationism/expropriation all rolled into one.

    Of course both of these can be wrong - and indeed are - but they can't both be right.

    Which of these obtuse concepts is going to win?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    All this because Eric Joyce started a drunken brawl in the House of Commons.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,259
    nico67 said:

    So Trumps allowed to hammer China but they’re not allowed to respond . If the Chinese don’t back down or some agreement is reached then the markets are going to completely implode .

    I never thought I would be on the side of China, but I hope they fuck Trumpistan until the blood runs out of Trump’s arse.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE

    Are you thinking of retracting, @Gardenwalker ?
    Nervous laughter.

    I just think it doesn’t help anybody to pronounce Trump as mad. His policies, sure.

    Even then, there is a logic of sorts behind what we are experiencing, per Bessent on Tucker Carlson.
    Don't try to think whether it will help anybody. Just face the facts.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    So Trumps allowed to hammer China but they’re not allowed to respond . If the Chinese don’t back down or some agreement is reached then the markets are going to completely implode .

    China isn’t going to back down - I wonder when they start to sell their US treasury bonds
    They need us more than we need them!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,060
    Gardenwalker said:

    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE

    Are you thinking of retracting, @Gardenwalker ?
    Nervous laughter.

    I just think it doesn’t help anybody to pronounce Trump as mad. His policies, sure.

    Even then, there is a logic of sorts behind what we are experiencing, per Bessent on Tucker Carlson.
    I think this arguably qualifies as "raving" ?

    "Yesterday, China issued Retaliatory Tariffs of 34%, on top of their already record setting Tariffs, Non-Monetary Tariffs, Illegal Subsidization of companies, and massive long term Currency Manipulation, despite my warning that any country that Retaliates against the U.S. by issuing additional Tariffs, above and beyond their already existing long term Tariff abuse of our Nation, will be immediately met with new and substantially higher Tariffs, over and above those initially set. Therefore, if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL
    Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th. Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

    And Bessent is beginning to sound as though he's away with the fairies.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    kamski said:

    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    I think he will backtrack, but while claiming concessions from other countries. No doubt some tariffs will stay.

    Meanwhile some people can make a killing on the volatility so everyone's a winner!
    I think people really have to give up the idea Trump is some kind of clever negotiator.

    He is clinically deluded, and he has lost contact with reality.
    Standing back from the tornado and reviewing, this seems to be the case:

    Sometimes Trump and Trumpians indicate that the purpose of tariffs is to get coumtries to negotiate their way to a level playing field because the global free trade thingy has got skewed.

    Other times the same sources indicate that Trumpian economics is truly old style mercantilism/fixed cake size/imperialism/protectionism/isolationism/expropriation all rolled into one.

    Of course both of these can be wrong - and indeed are - but they can't both be right.

    Which of these obtuse concepts is going to win?
    They can both be right. Britain's imperial preference policy was simultaneously pro free trade and protectionist, as was the early EEC.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 52,540
    Nigelb said:

    rottenborough said:

    Trump threatens China with even higher tariffs if they don't back down.

    Why would they ?

    They probably hold more cards than Trump - and don't have an electorate to answer to. Which, for now, Trump and his party of enablers do.
    I think China can manage better without the American market than America can with out Chinese goods.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,060
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nigelb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    eek said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kamski said:

    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    I think he will backtrack, but while claiming concessions from other countries. No doubt some tariffs will stay.

    Meanwhile some people can make a killing on the volatility so everyone's a winner!
    I’ve spent part of today wondering what constitutes insider trading.
    With regard to today’s market? Unless you have seen your capital requirements and sold your shares I doubt it matters - you have no more clue than the rest of us.
    My job (and my team of savants and weirdos) have spent the past few days looking for unusual trades aka market manipulation and insider trading.

    Right now I feel Chief Inspector Dreyfus in the Pink Panther film when he’s in the lunatic asylum wearing a straight jacket and writing on the walls with his feet.
    Can you get Trump arrested ?
    I want a bigger punishment, say we accidentally fired a missile from Trident at the White House.
    A quiet word with @TridentSubCommander ?

    Knowing our luck, it would misfire, though.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    algarkirk said:

    Chris said:

    kamski said:

    rottenborough said:

    Javier Blas
    @JavierBlas
    ·
    24m
    The fact the White House came quickly and strongly to deny the rumour of a 90-day delay on the tariffs ***despite*** the positive impact the chatter had on the equity markets tells you all what you need to know: for now, Trump isn't backtracking.

    I think he will backtrack, but while claiming concessions from other countries. No doubt some tariffs will stay.

    Meanwhile some people can make a killing on the volatility so everyone's a winner!
    I think people really have to give up the idea Trump is some kind of clever negotiator.

    He is clinically deluded, and he has lost contact with reality.
    Standing back from the tornado and reviewing, this seems to be the case:

    Sometimes Trump and Trumpians indicate that the purpose of tariffs is to get coumtries to negotiate their way to a level playing field because the global free trade thingy has got skewed.

    Other times the same sources indicate that Trumpian economics is truly old style mercantilism/fixed cake size/imperialism/protectionism/isolationism/expropriation all rolled into one.

    Of course both of these can be wrong - and indeed are - but they can't both be right.

    Which of these obtuse concepts is going to win?
    It's so obviously someone out of control, reacting irrationally to the consequences of his own actions.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,504
    They ran out of chart...

    https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1909266355779481812
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 5,749
    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    So Trumps allowed to hammer China but they’re not allowed to respond . If the Chinese don’t back down or some agreement is reached then the markets are going to completely implode .

    China isn’t going to back down - I wonder when they start to sell their US treasury bonds
    The Chinese own huge amounts of US debt and could cause huge problems for them . China doesn’t have to worry about its population protesting and can take some pain .
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Nigelb said:

    And Bessent is beginning to sound as though he's away with the fairies.

    Very subtle.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,091
    Gardenwalker said:

    eek said:

    nico67 said:

    So Trumps allowed to hammer China but they’re not allowed to respond . If the Chinese don’t back down or some agreement is reached then the markets are going to completely implode .

    China isn’t going to back down - I wonder when they start to sell their US treasury bonds
    They need us more than we need them!
    Who is "they" and who is "us", these days?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,787
    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE

    😂😂
  • BogotaBogota Posts: 119
    rottenborough said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @DeItaone

    TRUMP: U.S. WILL IMPOSE ADDITIONAL 50% TARIFFS ON CHINA EFFECTIVE APRIL 9TH IF CHINA DOES NOT WITHDRAW 34% INCREASE


    At some point corporate america and wall street are gonna totally snap over this administration.
    They wanted it lol
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    I’m supposed to be working, but this is rather distracting.

    I know a guy whose whole supply chain is in China.
    And my own job security is decently correlated with US economic sentiment, and so to a lesser extent is my wife’s.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,184
    What a dickhead.

    https://x.com/edwardjdavey/status/1909243168836419776?s=61
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,313
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    A police officer driving a van which followed two teenagers before they both died in an e-bike crash in Cardiff will not face criminal charges, the Crown Prosecution Service (CPS) has said. The CPS said there was insufficient evidence to provide a realistic prospect of conviction.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy5rny9dq6vo

    Prosecute the teenagers anyway.
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