politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour regain the lead with Ipsos Mori
I said last months Ipsos-Mori and ICM phone polls were outliers, in this instance what we’re seeing is a return what the polls have been generally telling us for a few months now, it virtually neck and neck between The Tories and Labour.
Comments
-
It's more normally the other way round, isn't it? The Tories leading on the "certain to vote" q. and Labour ahead on the other one?0
-
YepTissue_Price said:It's more normally the other way round, isn't it? The Tories leading on the "certain to vote" q. and Labour ahead on the other one?
That's what I thought.0 -
Anyone want to offer me odds on the Greens being in third place or higher in next month's Ipsos-Mori?0
-
Are the tables up for this ?0
-
Yes. However the Tories led on both last month.Tissue_Price said:It's more normally the other way round, isn't it? The Tories leading on the "certain to vote" q. and Labour ahead on the other one?
0 -
2% don't know whether they have made up their minds :-)0
-
Yes.Pulpstar said:Are the tables up for this ?
Oh you wanted a link?
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/polmon_jan2015web_THURS.pdf0 -
Greens up on certain to vote looks... odd to me. When they poll 8% at the GE I'll eat my words on that though. Aren't they normally the most tactical of all voters and so get squeezed relentlessly at the GE ?0
-
-
Have the voters decided yet?
QTWTAIN.
But its not looking good for the tories (unless you are looking from the perspective of the Lib Dems of course.
Either that "herding" theory that was linked to the other day is producing misleading results or BJO is going to prove correct: EICIPM. Oh lord.0 -
4/1, dead-heat rules applyTheScreamingEagles said:Anyone want to offer me odds on the Greens being in third place or higher in next month's Ipsos-Mori?
0 -
Either that "herding" theory that was linked to the other day is producing misleading results or BJO is going to prove correct: EICIPM. Oh lord.
Does this poll break down into England/Scotland?
I'll throw in the towel when I see that Ed is doing well in England.0 -
Yes, but if Green support really is 8% then those sorts of voters now represent a minority. The new supporters may act differently. This could still lead to them not voting Green, though, as they could be the people who told pollsters they would vote for Clegg and the Lib Dems in 2010 and then somehow didn't make it to the polling booth.Pulpstar said:Greens up on certain to vote looks... odd to me. When they poll 8% at the GE I'll eat my words on that though. Aren't they normally the most tactical of all voters and so get squeezed relentlessly at the GE ?
With another couple of hundred opinion polls until the election there is lots of potential for an amusing outlier or two.0 -
Tables.... must have tables....TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Pulpstar said:Are the tables up for this ?
Oh you wanted a link?
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/polmon_jan2015web_THURS.pdf
0 -
"Or higher"?!TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone want to offer me odds on the Greens being in third place or higher in next month's Ipsos-Mori?
You're letting that bet with Neil affect your judgement.0 -
So in fact thats a Tory lead of 1%, taking the average Labour lead so far this month down to 0.5%, a fall of 2.7% in less than a month.
Interesting that The Labour Leader is a whole 1% ahead of The Libdem Leader in the satisfaction ratings, not-so-toxic-Clegg.0 -
Is there an option:
Are you certain to vote?
a) Yes
b) No
c) God willing0 -
Good to see the Greens eclipsing the racists in terms of membership numbers.
The creaking UKIP ship is going down...0 -
There - corrected it for you :-)Sunil_Prasannan said:
Tablets.... must have tablets....TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Pulpstar said:Are the tables up for this ?
Oh you wanted a link?
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/polmon_jan2015web_THURS.pdf0 -
Opinion pills!SandyRentool said:
There - corrected it for you :-)Sunil_Prasannan said:
Tablets.... must have tablets....TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes.Pulpstar said:Are the tables up for this ?
Oh you wanted a link?
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/polmon_jan2015web_THURS.pdf0 -
So actually a Tory lead on voting intention0
-
Only Connect (BBC2)
As a previous contestant, I've been asked to think about whether I know any potential future contestants - and as I recall this site very nearly managed to get a team together in the past, despite the geographical challenges involved.
Teams of 3 are required - so if anyone's interested then do comment and then DM each other to try to get something together.
Must be 18+ and UK resident - and the closing date is 9th Feb.
It's really good fun and you get well looked after by the crew.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7Pi89-IYAENx-I.jpg0 -
The Conservatives lead Labour by 37/33% in England. That compares to 39/28% at the last election.taffys said:Either that "herding" theory that was linked to the other day is producing misleading results or BJO is going to prove correct: EICIPM. Oh lord.
Does this poll break down into England/Scotland?
I'll throw in the towel when I see that Ed is doing well in England.
0 -
It seems the British public will pick a government based upon sentimentality and propaganda on the NHS. Clearly, Labour will run on this very heavy in April/May, so the Tories need to find a way of neutralising it now or they risk losing.0
-
I only watch it for VictoriaTissue_Price said:Only Connect (BBC2)
As a previous contestant, I've been asked to think about whether I know any potential future contestants - and as I recall this site very nearly managed to get a team together in the past, despite the geographical challenges involved.
Teams of 3 are required - so if anyone's interested then do comment and then DM each other to try to get something together.
Must be 18+ and UK resident - and the closing date is 9th Feb.
It's really good fun and you get well looked after by the crew.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7Pi89-IYAENx-I.jpg
(EDIT: oops - did I just press "send"??)0 -
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/537299284639899649Sean_F said:
Wishful thinking, I think. In terms of votes cast, UKIP have completely eclipsed the Greens over the past year.BenM said:Good to see the Greens eclipsing the racists in terms of membership numbers.
The creaking UKIP ship is going down...0 -
Anyone who follows the nags know why the "Clarence house chase" ante-post market with Betfair has been suspended ?0
-
As always, Ipsos-MORI's excellent long-term charts are well worth a look:
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/January15_Pol Monitor charts_EVENING STANDARD_FINAL_150115.pdf
Cameron's ratings continue to be very good. Miliband's continue to be dire.
One interesting chart is 'economic optimism'. It's a rather curious chart in some ways since, looking back over the years, people seem to have been particularly optimistic or pessimistic at very odd times.0 -
There should be an arrow pointing to the Greens saying "Can't Win Here."Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/537299284639899649Sean_F said:
Wishful thinking, I think. In terms of votes cast, UKIP have completely eclipsed the Greens over the past year.BenM said:Good to see the Greens eclipsing the racists in terms of membership numbers.
The creaking UKIP ship is going down...
0 -
Is that on just those certain to vote, or on all expressing a voting preference?Sean_F said:
The Conservatives lead Labour by 37/33% in England. That compares to 39/28% at the last election.taffys said:Either that "herding" theory that was linked to the other day is producing misleading results or BJO is going to prove correct: EICIPM. Oh lord.
Does this poll break down into England/Scotland?
I'll throw in the towel when I see that Ed is doing well in England.0 -
Pre-election bribe striker profiles:
Ozzie's Pensioner Bonds = Harry Kane
Gordon's Pensioner Council Tax bung = Bobby Sol0 -
The sad truth is that Ed must be doing better in England. Conventionally Labour's lead in Scotland over the tories was so large that it was worth 1.5-2% nationally so that could be deducted off the Labour share for an England only result. Now its not (to put it politely). So they are even steven not just in the UK but in England. It is quite depressing.taffys said:Either that "herding" theory that was linked to the other day is producing misleading results or BJO is going to prove correct: EICIPM. Oh lord.
Does this poll break down into England/Scotland?
I'll throw in the towel when I see that Ed is doing well in England.
Unless Cameron can turn this into the most presidential election we have ever had the tories lose. And he doesn't seem to want to do the debates? I really don't get it. Cameron's relative popularity (the truth is we simply dislike him less than the rest) is the tories only trump card and they need to play it to death.0 -
''The Conservatives lead Labour by 37/33% in England. That compares to 39/28% at the last election.''
So labour lead overall must be predicated on the notion that labour will do rather well in Scotland.
Hasn't this notion been exposed as highly unlikely in recent weeks?0 -
I presume it's all expressing an intention to vote. Given that MORI produce both sets of numbers, I take the result to be a dead heat.Casino_Royale said:
Is that on just those certain to vote, or on all expressing a voting preference?Sean_F said:
The Conservatives lead Labour by 37/33% in England. That compares to 39/28% at the last election.taffys said:Either that "herding" theory that was linked to the other day is producing misleading results or BJO is going to prove correct: EICIPM. Oh lord.
Does this poll break down into England/Scotland?
I'll throw in the towel when I see that Ed is doing well in England.
0 -
Recent polls seem to support the thesis that Lab are going to come in at 33/34% in May. Not enough time left for major shifts.
Tories need to match their 37% 2010 share to stand a chance of remaining in government. Doesn't look like happening.0 -
Mr. M, plenty of scope for the most dreadfully indecisive of results. We could yet have Election 2: Elect Harder.0
-
Labour still have a clear lead over the Conservatives in the Scottish sub-sample. But, they're well behind the SNP.DavidL said:
The sad truth is that Ed must be doing better in England. Conventionally Labour's lead in Scotland over the tories was so large that it was worth 1.5-2% nationally so that could be deducted off the Labour share for an England only result. Now its not (to put it politely). So they are even steven not just in the UK but in England. It is quite depressing.taffys said:Either that "herding" theory that was linked to the other day is producing misleading results or BJO is going to prove correct: EICIPM. Oh lord.
Does this poll break down into England/Scotland?
I'll throw in the towel when I see that Ed is doing well in England.
Unless Cameron can turn this into the most presidential election we have ever had the tories lose. And he doesn't seem to want to do the debates? I really don't get it. Cameron's relative popularity (the truth is we simply dislike him less than the rest) is the tories only trump card and they need to play it to death.
0 -
The sad truth is that Ed must be doing better in England.
Either that, or the polls overstate Ed's desperate performance whenever there is a real election in England since 2014.0 -
A cracker this morning from @BrookesTimes: pic.twitter.com/fAkU7c2rJS
— Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) January 15, 20150 -
Astonishingly complacent. Either that, or bravado.BenM said:Recent polls seem to support the thesis that Lab are going to come in at 33/34% in May. Not enough time left for major shifts.
0 -
My view is that whichever party leads in terms of votes will lead in terms of seats, for the reasons Peter Kellner has given.BenM said:Recent polls seem to support the thesis that Lab are going to come in at 33/34% in May. Not enough time left for major shifts.
Tories need to match their 37% 2010 share to stand a chance of remaining in government. Doesn't look like happening.
Of course, it's possible that a second-placed Labour party could put together a deal with the Lib Dems and SNP to form a government.
0 -
MikeK said:
A cracker this morning from @BrookesTimes: pic.twitter.com/fAkU7c2rJS
— Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) January 15, 2015
Is he implying Cameron is a cock? How rude.0 -
The scope the Tories have for doing that is between the 33% who are satisfied with the government and presumably already stating an intention to vote Tory (excepting there might be a few who are satisfied with a coalition government, but would not be with an exclusively Tory one and are stating their voting intentions accordingly) and the 41% who are satisfied with David Cameron.DavidL said:
The sad truth is that Ed must be doing better in England. Conventionally Labour's lead in Scotland over the tories was so large that it was worth 1.5-2% nationally so that could be deducted off the Labour share for an England only result. Now its not (to put it politely). So they are even steven not just in the UK but in England. It is quite depressing.taffys said:Either that "herding" theory that was linked to the other day is producing misleading results or BJO is going to prove correct: EICIPM. Oh lord.
Does this poll break down into England/Scotland?
I'll throw in the towel when I see that Ed is doing well in England.
Unless Cameron can turn this into the most presidential election we have ever had the tories lose. And he doesn't seem to want to do the debates? I really don't get it. Cameron's relative popularity (the truth is we simply dislike him less than the rest) is the tories only trump card and they need to play it to death.0 -
Recent polls seem to support the thesis that Lab are going to come in at 33/34% in May.
Maybe. When have labour batted up to a 33/34% score in a real election since the beginning of 2014?
0 -
Yes but remember that lead has to be divided by roughly 12 to get the national effect. At the moment their lead over the tories is under 10 so it is less than 1% nationally. At the last election it was something like 25% from memory, worth over 2% across the country as a whole.Sean_F said:
Labour still have a clear lead over the Conservatives in the Scottish sub-sample. But, they're well behind the SNP.DavidL said:
The sad truth is that Ed must be doing better in England. Conventionally Labour's lead in Scotland over the tories was so large that it was worth 1.5-2% nationally so that could be deducted off the Labour share for an England only result. Now its not (to put it politely). So they are even steven not just in the UK but in England. It is quite depressing.taffys said:Either that "herding" theory that was linked to the other day is producing misleading results or BJO is going to prove correct: EICIPM. Oh lord.
Does this poll break down into England/Scotland?
I'll throw in the towel when I see that Ed is doing well in England.
Unless Cameron can turn this into the most presidential election we have ever had the tories lose. And he doesn't seem to want to do the debates? I really don't get it. Cameron's relative popularity (the truth is we simply dislike him less than the rest) is the tories only trump card and they need to play it to death.
So comparing these results against those before Ed managed to lose Scotland means that Labour must be doing comparatively better in England, albeit by a relatively small amount, just over 1%.0 -
Hmm No rain expected overnight at Ascot...
I assume the markets are closed pending declarations...0 -
3 1/2 months is a (very) long time in politics.BenM said:Recent polls seem to support the thesis that Lab are going to come in at 33/34% in May. Not enough time left for major shifts.
Tories need to match their 37% 2010 share to stand a chance of remaining in government. Doesn't look like happening.0 -
This is a General Election we're talking about. Turnout will make up the difference.taffys said:Recent polls seem to support the thesis that Lab are going to come in at 33/34% in May.
Maybe. When have labour batted up to a 33/34% score in a real election since the beginning of 2014?0 -
I think it's more complex than that. You could be 'dissatisfied' with the government and/or Cameron but still vote Tory, on the basis that it's the best option of a sub-optimal bunch. Or you could be broadly 'satisfied' but vote for a different party on the basis that, whilst you don't think the government is doing too bad a job, you'd prefer UKIP or the LibDems, or even Labour.Casino_Royale said:The scope the Tories have for doing that is between the 33% who are satisfied with the government and presumably already stating an intention to vote Tory (excepting there might be a few who are satisfied with a coalition government, but would not be with an exclusively Tory one and are stating their voting intentions accordingly) and the 41% who are satisfied with David Cameron.
0 -
Labour and Conservative bang level in England from what I can work out on these tables.0
-
Applying the L&N model to IPSOS we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 10.7%
Con seat lead 112 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.9%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 8.8%
Chance of a Tory majority: 91.2%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Implying a Tory majority of around 36...0 -
It almost certainly is as complex as you say, but in terms of targeting its converting those who are satisfied with Cameron as PM into votes for the Tories that is the obvious mother lode.Richard_Nabavi said:
I think it's more complex than that. You could be 'dissatisfied' with the government and/or Cameron but still vote Tory, on the basis that it's the best of a sub-optimal bunch. Or you could be broadly 'satisfied' but vote for a different party on the basis that, whilst you don't think the government is doing too bad a job, you'd prefer UKIP or the LibDems, or even Labour.Casino_Royale said:The scope the Tories have for doing that is between the 33% who are satisfied with the government and presumably already stating an intention to vote Tory (excepting there might be a few who are satisfied with a coalition government, but would not be with an exclusively Tory one and are stating their voting intentions accordingly) and the 41% who are satisfied with David Cameron.
0 -
Are you placing your own bets accordingly?RodCrosby said:Applying the L&N model to IPSOS we have:-
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 10.7%
Con seat lead 112 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.9%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 8.8%
Chance of a Tory majority: 91.2%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Implying a Tory majority of around 36...0 -
The surge in Green party membership has hit a temporary stumbling block. The numbers joining seem to have crashed the server.0
-
Yes, that is right, and will presumably be the approach, focusing on Cameron vs Miliband. They have to be careful not to overdo it, though.Casino_Royale said:It almost certainly is as complex as you say, but in terms of targeting its converting those who are satisfied with Cameron as PM into votes for the Tories that is the obvious mother lode.
0 -
DavidL said:
Yes but remember that lead has to be divided by roughly 12 to get the national effect. At the moment their lead over the tories is under 10 so it is less than 1% nationally. At the last election it was something like 25% from memory, worth over 2% across the country as a whole.Sean_F said:
Labour still have a clear lead over the Conservatives in the Scottish sub-sample. But, they're well behind the SNP.DavidL said:
.taffys said:Either that "herding" theory that was linked to the other day is producing misleading results or BJO is going to prove correct: EICIPM. Oh lord.
Does this poll break down into England/Scotland?
I'll throw in the towel when I see that Ed is doing well in England.
So comparing these results against those before Ed managed to lose Scotland means that Labour must be doing comparatively better in England, albeit by a relatively small amount, just over 1%.
In this poll, Labour are 16% ahead of the Tories in Scotland, which isn't hugely down on 2010.DavidL said:
Yes but remember that lead has to be divided by roughly 12 to get the national effect. At the moment their lead over the tories is under 10 so it is less than 1% nationally. At the last election it was something like 25% from memory, worth over 2% across the country as a whole.Sean_F said:
Labour still have a clear lead over the Conservatives in the Scottish sub-sample. But, they're well behind the SNP.DavidL said:taffys said:Either that "herding" theory that was linked to the other day is producing misleading results or BJO is going to prove correct: EICIPM. Oh lord.
Does this poll break down into England/Scotland?
I'll throw in the towel when I see that Ed is doing well in England.
Unless Cameron can turn this into the most presidential election we have ever had the tories lose. And he doesn't seem to want to do the debates? I really don't get it. Cameron's relative popularity (the truth is we simply dislike him less than the rest) is the tories only trump card and they need to play it to death.
So comparing these results against those before Ed managed to lose Scotland means that Labour must be doing comparatively better in England, albeit by a relatively small amount, just over 1%.
0 -
Wind's dropped?Neil said:The surge in Green party membership has hit a temporary stumbling block. The numbers joining seem to have crashed the server.
0 -
I've told them to give the donkeys a few lashes.Richard_Nabavi said:
Wind's dropped?Neil said:The surge in Green party membership has hit a temporary stumbling block. The numbers joining seem to have crashed the server.
0 -
-
I was hoping for at least 6/1 max stake £20.Tissue_Price said:
4/1, dead-heat rules applyTheScreamingEagles said:Anyone want to offer me odds on the Greens being in third place or higher in next month's Ipsos-Mori?
On either polling metric.0 -
Re the Green membership surge.
I never knew that in this country there we so many fans of authoritarian, quasi fascist, happiness destroying, economically illiterate, hippy left wing politics.0 -
I don't think turning up at debates is overdoing it. The election must be made presidential. Presidents do debates. It is all about them.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that is right, and will presumably be the approach, focusing on Cameron vs Miliband. They have to be careful not to overdo it, though.Casino_Royale said:It almost certainly is as complex as you say, but in terms of targeting its converting those who are satisfied with Cameron as PM into votes for the Tories that is the obvious mother lode.
We can only hope that Cameron is gambling that others will give way on green involvement and he wants the deck even more tilted in his favour. He needs to do the debates and win them to overcome the relative disadvantage of his party.0 -
Cameron's personal rating's continue to hold up astonishingly well. The "chicken" meme Labour has been running for the past week doesn't seem to have done any damage yet?0
-
Current forecast 2015 Tory leads from various models (& whether up or down on last month)Neil said:
Yay! It's been a while.RodCrosby said:Applying the L&N model to IPSOS we have:-
What are the other models currently showing?
Byelection swingback: -0.5% n/c
Hanretty: 1.5% down
Fisher: 2.8% up
2009-2010 repeat: 2.8% down
Prosser: 5.0% n/c
L&N: 10.7% up
0 -
You need those quasi fascists to win your bet!TheScreamingEagles said:Re the Green membership surge.
I never knew that in this country there we so many fans of authoritarian, quasi fascist, happiness destroying, economically illiterate, hippy left wing politics.0 -
L&N seems to be an outlier.RodCrosby said:
Current forecast 2015 Tory leads from various models (& whether up or down on last month)Neil said:
Yay! It's been a while.RodCrosby said:Applying the L&N model to IPSOS we have:-
What are the other models currently showing?
Byelection swingback: -0.5% n/c
Hanretty: 1.5% down
Fisher: 2.8% up
2009-2010 repeat: 2.8% down
Prosser: 5.0% n/c
L&N: 10.7% up
Which is your preferred model if you had to choose right now?
0 -
There's a fair number of people who want a fully socialist alternative to Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:Re the Green membership surge.
I never knew that in this country there we so many fans of authoritarian, quasi fascist, happiness destroying, economically illiterate, hippy left wing politics.
0 -
Well Yes.Neil said:
You need those quasi fascists to win your bet!TheScreamingEagles said:Re the Green membership surge.
I never knew that in this country there we so many fans of authoritarian, quasi fascist, happiness destroying, economically illiterate, hippy left wing politics.
Remind me us all, the odds Mark Senior gave you on Caroline Lucas holding her seat?0 -
Looks like Sprinter Sacre will return to action on Friday :O !0
-
That would be unkind.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well Yes.Neil said:
You need those quasi fascists to win your bet!TheScreamingEagles said:Re the Green membership surge.
I never knew that in this country there we so many fans of authoritarian, quasi fascist, happiness destroying, economically illiterate, hippy left wing politics.
Remind me us all, the odds Mark Senior gave you on Caroline Lucas holding her seat?
Ok, 8/1.
He really, really doesnt like the Greens. Which is fair enough but it is silly to let it influence betting.
0 -
Yeah but the Communist Party of Great Britain never had membership numbers like this did they?Sean_F said:
There's a fair number of people who want a fully socialist alternative to Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:Re the Green membership surge.
I never knew that in this country there we so many fans of authoritarian, quasi fascist, happiness destroying, economically illiterate, hippy left wing politics.0 -
-
L&N were spot-on last time.Neil said:
L&N seems to be an outlier.RodCrosby said:
Current forecast 2015 Tory leads from various models (& whether up or down on last month)Neil said:
Yay! It's been a while.RodCrosby said:Applying the L&N model to IPSOS we have:-
What are the other models currently showing?
Byelection swingback: -0.5% n/c
Hanretty: 1.5% down
Fisher: 2.8% up
2009-2010 repeat: 2.8% down
Prosser: 5.0% n/c
L&N: 10.7% up
Which is your preferred model if you had to choose right now?
I'll make my choice at the end of January. (^_-)0 -
CPGB wouldnt *allow* most of these hippies to join. Not everyone is cut out to be a revolutionary you know.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah but the Communist Party of Great Britain never had membership numbers like this did they?Sean_F said:
There's a fair number of people who want a fully socialist alternative to Labour.TheScreamingEagles said:Re the Green membership surge.
I never knew that in this country there we so many fans of authoritarian, quasi fascist, happiness destroying, economically illiterate, hippy left wing politics.
That said CPGB definitely had many more members in its heyday.
0 -
Actually, more likely this is the outlier considering the big changes in the certainty to vote numbers0
-
I've just filled in a YouGov voting intention survey - my first since UKIP were moved to the first page of prompts.
As a Green supporter I still have to click through to the second page but it makes me wonder whether I'd immediately notice were the Greens to ever be moved to the first page or, the first time at least, would I still click through to the second list of prompts just out of habit?
I can't help but think that maybe a small but significant number of UKIP supporters might've done just this upon their first go with the new list structures - perhaps explaining the slight drop in their support after the changes?0 -
Go on, you can have 5/1, which was my original thought before I trimmed it out of discretion. Headline figure only [i.e. the published 'certain to vote'], and e.g. 10% each is a tie, no drilling down into the data tables.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was hoping for at least 6/1 max stake £20.Tissue_Price said:
4/1, dead-heat rules applyTheScreamingEagles said:Anyone want to offer me odds on the Greens being in third place or higher in next month's Ipsos-Mori?
On either polling metric.0 -
Agreed and I accept your odds and terms.Tissue_Price said:
Go on, you can have 5/1, which was my original thought before I trimmed it out of discretion. Headline figure only [i.e. the published 'certain to vote'], and e.g. 10% each is a tie, no drilling down into the data tables.TheScreamingEagles said:
I was hoping for at least 6/1 max stake £20.Tissue_Price said:
4/1, dead-heat rules applyTheScreamingEagles said:Anyone want to offer me odds on the Greens being in third place or higher in next month's Ipsos-Mori?
On either polling metric.0 -
Try asking @aaronbell on Twitter - he's a long standing quiz show bod/PBer and won oodles on Deal or no deal.Tissue_Price said:
Only Connect (BBC2)
As a previous contestant, I've been asked to think about whether I know any potential future contestants - and as I recall this site very nearly managed to get a team together in the past, despite the geographical challenges involved.
Teams of 3 are required - so if anyone's interested then do comment and then DM each other to try to get something together.
Must be 18+ and UK resident - and the closing date is 9th Feb.
It's really good fun and you get well looked after by the crew.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7Pi89-IYAENx-I.jpg0 -
Taking the result of one opinion poll does not put anything into context. Previous MORI put the two-party share at 61% - where was his precious context then, eh?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
@Morris_Dancer Bought two books - hope I like them!0
-
The combined share for England, Wales, and Scotland is at 67% in MORI, and was 67% in 2010. It is, in any case, only one poll, and 67% is a historic low.OblitusSumMe said:
Taking the result of one opinion poll does not put anything into context. Previous MORI put the two-party share at 61% - where was his precious context then, eh?TheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
He's also comparing GB polls to a UK result.OblitusSumMe said:
Taking the result of one opinion poll does not put anything into context. Previous MORI put the two-party share at 61% - where was his precious context then, eh?TheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
A strong rally in Brent Crude price today (up to $52) now seems to be falling away again($49.50).
Also the ar$e seems to be falling out of the Euro.0 -
The Green party online joining thingy is back working again. The Lib Dems might be overtaken by the end of the day
If I'm not around can someone record Mark Senior's reaction for me? 0 -
Is he implying Cameron is a cock? How rude.RobD said:MikeK said:A cracker this morning from @BrookesTimes: pic.twitter.com/fAkU7c2rJS
— Michael Savage (@michaelsavage) January 15, 2015
I retweeted that one too 0 -
sounds like it could be funTissue_Price said:Only Connect (BBC2)
As a previous contestant, I've been asked to think about whether I know any potential future contestants - and as I recall this site very nearly managed to get a team together in the past, despite the geographical challenges involved.
Teams of 3 are required - so if anyone's interested then do comment and then DM each other to try to get something together.
Must be 18+ and UK resident - and the closing date is 9th Feb.
It's really good fun and you get well looked after by the crew.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7Pi89-IYAENx-I.jpg 0 -
Euro is down around 1% against most things - although European stock markets are flying.Eastwinger said:A strong rally in Brent Crude price today (up to $52) now seems to be falling away again($49.50).
Also the ar$e seems to be falling out of the Euro.
The consensus view (which may or may not be correct) is that the SNB broke the Euro peg because it knows that Euro QE is coming next week, and it wanted to leave the party before it lost too much money.
Interestingly, the SNB supported its Euro peg by printing Swiss Francs. These were then used to buy Euros (to maintain the peg). The Swiss National Bank didn't want to accept the miniscule interest rates available on German or French government bonds, and therefore sold the Euros it had bought to buy US Dollars. The effect was therefore to simultaneously weaken the Swiss Franc against the Euro and weaken the Euro against the USD.0 -
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/james-delingpole/9415202/standing-firm-is-the-price-of-civilisation-are-we-still-ready-to-pay-it/
A good article by Delingpole, but to me it appears unfinished.0 -
Thankyou for that explanation.rcs1000 said:
Euro is down around 1% against most things - although European stock markets are flying.Eastwinger said:A strong rally in Brent Crude price today (up to $52) now seems to be falling away again($49.50).
Also the ar$e seems to be falling out of the Euro.
The consensus view (which may or may not be correct) is that the SNB broke the Euro peg because it knows that Euro QE is coming next week, and it wanted to leave the party before it lost too much money.
Interestingly, the SNB supported its Euro peg by printing Swiss Francs. These were then used to buy Euros (to maintain the peg). The Swiss National Bank didn't want to accept the miniscule interest rates available on German or French government bonds, and therefore sold the Euros it had bought to buy US Dollars. The effect was therefore to simultaneously weaken the Swiss Franc against the Euro and weaken the Euro against the USD.
0 -
Look at the breakdown by age.
Labour heavily in front among 18-24 year olds, but now coming second from 45 up, rather than 65 up.
Money is entering into people's thinking. Interest rates, pensions, savings, wages, jobs.
0 -
If the SNB were printing Swiss Francs then maintaining the peg wasn't costing it any money at all, surely? Abandoning the peg therefore represents a large tightening of monetary policy, as they will no longer be printing Francs.rcs1000 said:
Euro is down around 1% against most things - although European stock markets are flying.Eastwinger said:A strong rally in Brent Crude price today (up to $52) now seems to be falling away again($49.50).
Also the ar$e seems to be falling out of the Euro.
The consensus view (which may or may not be correct) is that the SNB broke the Euro peg because it knows that Euro QE is coming next week, and it wanted to leave the party before it lost too much money.
Interestingly, the SNB supported its Euro peg by printing Swiss Francs. These were then used to buy Euros (to maintain the peg). The Swiss National Bank didn't want to accept the miniscule interest rates available on German or French government bonds, and therefore sold the Euros it had bought to buy US Dollars. The effect was therefore to simultaneously weaken the Swiss Franc against the Euro and weaken the Euro against the USD.
I'm a bit confused.0
