Isam "Be warned: if Ed Miliband gains power, the nanny state will take over, says @Nigel_Farage ind.pn/1B6OQ0U pic.twitter.com/VAPFKdCFX4 "
What do you think would be most damaging to the UK's world-wide reputation; to have a 'nanny state' or to have the most right wing government in Europe?
Isam "Be warned: if Ed Miliband gains power, the nanny state will take over, says @Nigel_Farage ind.pn/1B6OQ0U pic.twitter.com/VAPFKdCFX4 "
What do you think would be most damaging to the UK's world-wide reputation; to have a 'nanny state' or to have the most right wing government in Europe?
I care less about reputation and more about the impact of a destructive nanny state government. That said since you are in advertising I realise that appearances are far more important to you than reality.
[Don't get me started on the very disappointing The Imitation Game, or, as I prefer to call it, The Anachronism Game].
Funny you should think that. I who have no knowledge of either physics or the enigma machine found the Imitation Game a much more interesting story. Both had something of a TV film about them but whereas the Imitation Game had a story-and in parts a moving story -at it's centre The Theory of Everything seemed just a bit too kitchen sink albeit with a brilliant impersonation of Hawking
Please explain to me how The Great Budapest Hotel gets umpteen nominations. Thought it was boring in the extreme. Saw Foxcatcher the other day, brilliant performances and a film I would see again. Imitation Game great fun, even if historically inaccurate,and my choice for Oscars, ahead of Theory of Everything. Also an honourable mention for the anti UKIP film, Paddington, which gave me the most laughs of any film in the last year.
Grand Budapest Hotel was easily the best film of last year.
Seven seats where it might matter, although a million voters on the roll...
57% of the voters in East Ham are foreign born.
Where there are reciprocal rights ( eg Ireland) foreign votes I can sort of accept ( but only where there's a degree of relative equality in terms of Brits and foreigners living each other's country ( again Ireland I assume would be ok-?) but where there are no reciprocal rights it's bonkers frankly. Just a straight no.
My constituency, Cardiff Central, is quite likely to have foreign votes greater than the majority and conceivably ( if not likely ) the cause of the majority (!)
Seven seats where it might matter, although a million voters on the roll...
57% of the voters in East Ham are foreign born.
Where there are reciprocal rights ( eg Ireland) foreign votes I can sort of accept ( but only where there's a degree of relative equality in terms of Brits and foreigners living each other's country ( again Ireland I assume would be ok-?) but where there are no reciprocal rights it's bonkers frankly. Just a straight no.
My constituency, Cardiff Central, is quite likely to have foreign votes greater than the majority and conceivably ( if not likely ) the cause of the majority (!)
While the Guardian's analysis may be right on the number of marginals that may depend on these votes, the majority are concentrated in Labour seats.
So that's bye-bye East Ham and a host of others at the next Boundary Review [if this is change is passed]...
[I simplify slightly, but it will hurt Labour overall]
Seven seats where it might matter, although a million voters on the roll...
57% of the voters in East Ham are foreign born.
Where there are reciprocal rights ( eg Ireland) foreign votes I can sort of accept ( but only where there's a degree of relative equality in terms of Brits and foreigners living each other's country ( again Ireland I assume would be ok-?) but where there are no reciprocal rights it's bonkers frankly. Just a straight no.
My constituency, Cardiff Central, is quite likely to have foreign votes greater than the majority and conceivably ( if not likely ) the cause of the majority (!)
Of course a large proportion of the 57% in East Ham are likely to be British citizens.
Isam "Be warned: if Ed Miliband gains power, the nanny state will take over, says @Nigel_Farage ind.pn/1B6OQ0U pic.twitter.com/VAPFKdCFX4 "
What do you think would be most damaging to the UK's world-wide reputation; to have a 'nanny state' or to have the most right wing government in Europe?
Seven seats where it might matter, although a million voters on the roll...
57% of the voters in East Ham are foreign born.
Where there are reciprocal rights ( eg Ireland) foreign votes I can sort of accept ( but only where there's a degree of relative equality in terms of Brits and foreigners living each other's country ( again Ireland I assume would be ok-?) but where there are no reciprocal rights it's bonkers frankly. Just a straight no.
My constituency, Cardiff Central, is quite likely to have foreign votes greater than the majority and conceivably ( if not likely ) the cause of the majority (!)
Of course a large proportion of the 57% in East Ham are likely to be British citizens.
Probably not the case here - lots of students. ( I have no solid evidence mind other than local vibe).
Interesting spat between Murdoch and Rowling.......
Murdoch "Maybe most Moslems are peaceful, but until they recognize and destroy their growing jihadist cancer they must be held responsible."
Rowling “I was born Christian. If that makes Rupert Murdoch my responsibility, I’ll auto-excommunicate.”
Yes I'm sure the Islington luvvies will find that hilariously funny.
Meanwhile BBC QT in their best traditions of balance have invited the following post-Charlie panel on to the show.
Mehdi Hasan (apologist) Sal Brinton (LD Friend of Palestine and apologist)) Anna Soubry (drippingly wet Tory apologist) Wee Dougie (who cares) David Starkey (eccentric)
How many of these worthies will be looking to excise the growing Jihadist cancer?
Starkey? From memory, he is uunbelievably right wing. And I think gay. No t likely to be a friend of salafist Islam. And likes to be controversial.
Indeed so but isn't that half the point? He's known as an eccentric and a Mr Angry figure Hopefully though for once he won't go OTT. I'd prefer a more sober but robust defender of free speech like David Aaronovitch as demonstrated by his two forthright Times articles in the last week.
Isam "Be warned: if Ed Miliband gains power, the nanny state will take over, says @Nigel_Farage ind.pn/1B6OQ0U pic.twitter.com/VAPFKdCFX4 "
What do you think would be most damaging to the UK's world-wide reputation; to have a 'nanny state' or to have the most right wing government in Europe?
Boring false dichotomy.
"Nanny state" is boring too. If you think you don't already live in one, pop out for an AK47 and a pint of laudanum. If you are successful you are in Afghanistan or Somalia, which might make you think there's worse things than nanny states.
Edit to add: and what is this garbage about "the UK's world-wide reputation" anyway? Most of us aren't trying to market the UK, we are trying to bloody live in it.
Looking at the YouGov splits of UKIP voters, ex-Labour 2010 voters are apparently the least likely to be UKIP supporters now: according to YouGov, there are circa three times as many 2010 Conservative voters backing UKIP than Labour.
That doesn't look right to me and it doesn't correspond with what we have seen coming out of recent elections (H and M, Stroud going UKIP in Rochester, the local elections in the North where UKIP has made significant inroads etc). A few Labour-leaning punters on here have also commented that the vibe is that the WWC is deserting Labour but that the middle classes are loyal. Given many of the latter were probably 2010 LD flirters, that has to raise some questions about Labour's traditional base.
According to the British Election study the ex-Labour WWC types that UKIP have won over in this term are those who switched (perhaps reluctantly) to the Conservatives in 2010.
There does seem a lot of bad news for LD's in the long run. Very sad for those of us who want a more liberal society. Stuck between those who write off the disadvantaged on principle and those who seem to be stuck on control-freakery.
Interesting spat between Murdoch and Rowling.......
Murdoch "Maybe most Moslems are peaceful, but until they recognize and destroy their growing jihadist cancer they must be held responsible."
Rowling “I was born Christian. If that makes Rupert Murdoch my responsibility, I’ll auto-excommunicate.”
Yes I'm sure the Islington luvvies will find that hilariously funny.
Meanwhile BBC QT in their best traditions of balance have invited the following post-Charlie panel on to the show.
Mehdi Hasan (apologist) Sal Brinton (LD Friend of Palestine and apologist)) Anna Soubry (drippingly wet Tory apologist) Wee Dougie (who cares) David Starkey (eccentric)
How many of these worthies will be looking to excise the growing Jihadist cancer?
Starkey? From memory, he is uunbelievably right wing. And I think gay. No t likely to be a friend of salafist Islam. And likes to be controversial.
SOubry practicing her confused face/ righteous anger schtick as we speak no doubt
"Please explain to me how The Great Budapest Hotel gets umpteen nominations. Thought it was boring in the extreme. Saw Foxcatcher the other day, brilliant performances and a film I would see again. Imitation Game great fun, even if historically inaccurate,and my choice for Oscars, ahead of Theory of Everything. Also an honourable mention for the anti UKIP film, Paddington, which gave me the most laughs of any film in the last year."
I agree with most of that. Wes Anderson is a quirky film maker. You either love them or fall asleep and that was about the best he's done. It's a bit like Monty Python. You either get it or you don't. I also enjoyed Paddington and thought Imitation Game better than Theory of.. Despite the brilliant mimicry of Redmayne (which will almost certainly win him the Oscar) Cumberbatch was more convincing to me as a problem solver
"Please explain to me how The Great Budapest Hotel gets umpteen nominations. Thought it was boring in the extreme. Saw Foxcatcher the other day, brilliant performances and a film I would see again. Imitation Game great fun, even if historically inaccurate,and my choice for Oscars, ahead of Theory of Everything. Also an honourable mention for the anti UKIP film, Paddington, which gave me the most laughs of any film in the last year."
I agree with most of that. Wes Anderson is a quirky film maker. You either love them or fall asleep and that was about the best he's done. It's a bit like Monty Python. You either get it or you don't. I also enjoyed Paddington and thought Imitation Game better than Theory of.. Despite the brilliant mimicry of Redmayne (which will almost certainly win him the Oscar) Cumberbatch was more convincing to me as a problem solver
Like that Roger. My wife and I saw "Budapest" soon after it came out. I thought it was brilliant; she, more matter of fact didn't. As you say, Pythonesque. We've not seen the Hawkinge film yet; our daughter died of MND a year ago after a very horrifying few months. The idea of seeing someone surviving with it, and doing what Hawking has done, isn't something we fancy. Agree about the inaccuracy of Imitation Game; the "heroine" in particular was not, I understand, well drawn. Cumberbatch was very, very believable, though.
Where do these figures come from? The don't seem to tie into current polls - Lab current polling lead is surely less than 2.4% however it is calculated.
Artist, I am not sure how that could be in places like Doncaster, the Rother Valley and Heywood. If you take the latter, Labour's share stayed the same but that was because many ex-LDs switched back to Labour, so they must have lost some to UKIP. In those parts of Yorkshire, even if 100pc of Conservative voters went to UKIP, it would nowhere near explain their performance.
Where do these figures come from? The don't seem to tie into current polls - Lab current polling lead is surely less than 2.4% however it is calculated.
Certainly a big leap in the Labour lead from this forecaster - from 3 seats over the Tories earlier today to 12 seats now. It's looking bad yet again for the Tories - wehever they close the gap, they seem to get slapped down again ..... Dave simply doesn't have it in him does he?
ps An honourable mention for the brilliantly shot Mr Turner, with Timothy Small a very credible Turner. One regret that I didn't know as much about the guy as I thought and would have been better to have read up a bit beforehand. On the other hand do NOT Google John du Pont before you see the excellent Foxcatcher as it will spoil your evening!
O/T A terrific share price performance from Betfair over the past 3 months with their price having increased from 1100p to 1680p (incl a special redemption dividend). Meanwhie Ladbrokes have remained stalled at 110p over the same period.
If any non-Muslim had described Muslims as "living like animals" they would be sacked as a journalist and never be invited on a mainstream TV channel again. But the hypocrisy of the left allow him to get away with it. What's shameful is that the BBC, supposedly an impartial public service, helps enforce this double standard.
Joe Wozniczka-Wells (@joe_wozza) 15/01/2015 18:52 KP unveils this 2 days after claiming he wasn't one of the top four egos in the England team. You couldn't make it up independent.co.uk/sport/cricket
Where do these figures come from? The don't seem to tie into current polls - Lab current polling lead is surely less than 2.4% however it is calculated.
Certainly a big leap in the Labour lead from this forecaster - from 3 seats over the Tories earlier today to 12 seats now. It's looking bad yet again for the Tories - wehever they close the gap, they seem to get slapped down again ..... Dave simply doesn't have it in him does he?
Not sure I would agree with that.
Polls in Jan so far are good for Con - average Lab lead below 1%.
If Kellner is right that close on votes will be close on seats then Con is, potentially, in not a bad position.
In many ways Cameron is an amazing politician - criticised by just about everyone, hated by a large number of so called Con supporters and yet he's miles more popular than the Con Party and easily the most preferred person to be PM. Bit of a conundrum, isn't it!
If any non-Muslim had described Muslims as "living like animals" they would be sacked as a journalist and never be invited on a mainstream TV channel again. But the hypocrisy of the left allow him to get away with it. What's shameful is that the BBC, supposedly an impartial public service, helps enforce this double standard.
Hasans uses as evidence that the 7/7 bomber assimilated 'they played cricket'
The only hope left for Ukip is to go green as has been suggested here.It has been left on the wrong side of the economic curve unless it does.
Funny, you've been telling us for months that they were a front for Murdoch. please do try and keep your tin foil conspiracies consistent. Or maybe you think they are secretly being controlled by the Pope like some modern day secret Jesuit spy ring.
The only hope left for Ukip is to go green as has been suggested here.It has been left on the wrong side of the economic curve unless it does.
Funny, you've been telling us for months that they were a front for Murdoch. please do try and keep your tin foil conspiracies consistent. Or maybe you think they are secretly being controlled by the Pope like some modern day secret Jesuit spy ring.
funny how UKIP supporters have been trying to hide away from the racism within the party. Just Google UKIP racist and see what you find..
The Sun reports that their exclusive poll shows that 7 in 10 back Greens to take part in TV election debate ....... will PB.com be leading on this story tomorrow morning?
The only hope left for Ukip is to go green as has been suggested here.It has been left on the wrong side of the economic curve unless it does.
Funny, you've been telling us for months that they were a front for Murdoch. please do try and keep your tin foil conspiracies consistent. Or maybe you think they are secretly being controlled by the Pope like some modern day secret Jesuit spy ring.
funny how UKIP supporters have been trying to hide away from the racism within the party. Just Google UKIP racist and see what you find..
You could say the same of the Conservative, Labour and Lib Dem parties.
The Sun reports that their exclusive poll shows that 7 in 10 back Greens to take part in TV election debate ....... will PB.com be leading on this story tomorrow morning?
Well, that's bad news for Dave's enemies - UKIP in particular. A best the public the will be indifferent to Dave's boycott; at worst they'll view him as the custodian of British democracy and hero of the little man.
I'll still be doing the occasional thread here and there and Mike's booked his holiday for June.
Where'll I'll be standing in again for Mike.
If I'm honest my last stint as Guest Editor really took a lot out of me emotionally.
It covered the tail end of the Indyref, the aftermath, the conference season, Reckless defecting, a reported defection, The Clacton and Heywood by elections.
Starkey 'Islam was once the centre of the world, open and engaged, once it closed in on itself and ended freedom of thought nothing interesting has been written in Arabic for 500 years'
The only hope left for Ukip is to go green as has been suggested here.It has been left on the wrong side of the economic curve unless it does.
Funny, you've been telling us for months that they were a front for Murdoch. please do try and keep your tin foil conspiracies consistent. Or maybe you think they are secretly being controlled by the Pope like some modern day secret Jesuit spy ring.
funny how UKIP supporters have been trying to hide away from the racism within the party. Just Google UKIP racist and see what you find..
Sublimely moronic.
If the tory party has the misfortune 8 to have your allegiance, ponder the fact that Aidan Burley still has the party whip because an internal inquiry decided that it isn't racist to dress up as a nazi and toast the third reich. Ukip expels people like that.
I'll still be doing the occasional thread here and there and Mike's booked his holiday for June.
Where'll I'll be standing in again for Mike.
If I'm honest my last stint as Guest Editor really took a lot out of me emotionally.
It covered the tail end of the Indyref, the aftermath, the conference season, Reckless defecting, a reported defection, The Clacton and Heywood by elections.
June should be quiet. Shouldn't it??? What could possibly go wrong?
I'll still be doing the occasional thread here and there and Mike's booked his holiday for June.
Where'll I'll be standing in again for Mike.
If I'm honest my last stint as Guest Editor really took a lot out of me emotionally.
It covered the tail end of the Indyref, the aftermath, the conference season, Reckless defecting, a reported defection, The Clacton and Heywood by elections.
Yep, you certainly put in a tremendous stint in the final few months of 2014. Mike Smithson and indeed all PBers owe you a great deal, no doubt about it.
Shocked and horrified to learn that OGH isn't on holiday again until June.
The Sun reports that their exclusive poll shows that 7 in 10 back Greens to take part in TV election debate ....... will PB.com be leading on this story tomorrow morning?
The Sun reports that their exclusive poll shows that 7 in 10 back Greens to take part in TV election debate ....... will PB.com be leading on this story tomorrow morning?
I'll still be doing the occasional thread here and there and Mike's booked his holiday for June.
Where'll I'll be standing in again for Mike.
If I'm honest my last stint as Guest Editor really took a lot out of me emotionally.
It covered the tail end of the Indyref, the aftermath, the conference season, Reckless defecting, a reported defection, The Clacton and Heywood by elections.
June should be quiet. Shouldn't it??? What could possibly go wrong?
Mike normally takes his holidays in May, he thought it would be wise to delay it a few weeks this year.
Then I pointed out this scenario
7th of May: General Election
8th of May: The Result, a well hung parliament with no realistic viable government
18th of May: Parliament meets, and as Dave is still the incumbent PM, a vote of no confidence in the government, which the government loses.
1st of June: The Provisions of the Fixed Term parliament act kicks in and a new general election is called.
2nd of June: The Tory Party and the Labour Party decide to remove Dave and Ed before the second election.
So I'll be editing PB during a potential currency crisis, two leadership elections and a general election campaign.
Because nothing ever happens when Mike's on holiday in Spain.
The only hope left for Ukip is to go green as has been suggested here.It has been left on the wrong side of the economic curve unless it does.
Funny, you've been telling us for months that they were a front for Murdoch. please do try and keep your tin foil conspiracies consistent. Or maybe you think they are secretly being controlled by the Pope like some modern day secret Jesuit spy ring.
funny how UKIP supporters have been trying to hide away from the racism within the party. Just Google UKIP racist and see what you find..
Try googling Tory racist or Tory homophobe and then crawl back under your rock you hypocrite.
UKIP throw them out. The Tory party keep them as councillors and MPs. You should be utterly ashamed.
I'll still be doing the occasional thread here and there and Mike's booked his holiday for June.
Where'll I'll be standing in again for Mike.
If I'm honest my last stint as Guest Editor really took a lot out of me emotionally.
It covered the tail end of the Indyref, the aftermath, the conference season, Reckless defecting, a reported defection, The Clacton and Heywood by elections.
Yep, you certainly put in a tremendous stint in the final few months of 2014. Mike Smithson and indeed all PBers owe you a great deal, no doubt about it.
Shocked and horrified to learn that OGH isn't on holiday again until June.
That stint also covered speculation about Alan Johnson replacing Ed and Nick Clegg quitting during his speech
Mike thinks after the election he's going to need a longish break.
I enjoyed the stint, the high points were when Newsnight did a segment based on a thread I did and erm Kevin Maguire quoted one of pieces on the Sky Paper review (although he said it was Mike that wrote it)
I'll still be doing the occasional thread here and there and Mike's booked his holiday for June.
Where'll I'll be standing in again for Mike.
If I'm honest my last stint as Guest Editor really took a lot out of me emotionally.
It covered the tail end of the Indyref, the aftermath, the conference season, Reckless defecting, a reported defection, The Clacton and Heywood by elections.
June should be quiet. Shouldn't it??? What could possibly go wrong?
Mike normally takes his holidays in May, he thought it would be wise to delay it a few weeks this year.
Then I pointed out this scenario
7th of May: General Election
8th of May: The Result, a well hung parliament with no realistic viable government
18th of May: Parliament meets, and as Dave is still the incumbent PM, a vote of no confidence in the government, which the government loses.
1st of June: The Provisions of the Fixed Term parliament act kicks in and a new general election is called.
2nd of June: The Tory Party and the Labour Party decide to remove Dave and Ed before the second election.
So I'll be editing PB during a potential currency crisis, two leadership elections and a general election campaign.
Because nothing ever happens when Mike's on holiday in Spain.
True but your scenario should have great odds mind ;-)
Sourby is 9/4 - get on that. Far superior to the retread who lost last time.
Even if PtP gives his all again during the election campaign for the Labour candidate?
It's the same in Cambridge - Labour putting up the guy the voters told to do one last time. They saw them in action and said no more we want a better MP.
It is notable that authorities in Brussels said that the arrest of an arms dealer in Southern Belgium, who reportedly brokered weapon supply to Kosher supermarket terrorist Amedy Coulibaly, wasn't related to todays events.
It is, indirectly. The understanding is that Coulibaly may have also been a link man to others elsewhere, including kit supply. To that end he may have been a very useful jigsaw piece and its an assumption that he may have left some breadcrumbs behind him along with others involved in events in Paris.
What has been seen in Belgium today is a fraction of what is going on in terms of suppression and interdiction activities by Western European agencies in the last 48 hours and will continue. In reality for Belgium its about time something direct has been done like this, the country has, in scale terms, a Jihadi issue as near as substantive and near as long standing as we do.
There does seem to be a race against time situation on. One country though seems to have escaped the Jihadist actions... Germany. It has plenty of them, has awful issues monitoring them. It is due trouble.
I see Green party membership has overtaken Lib Dem membership while I was at 5-a-side. Maybe they'll overtake Labour when I play 11-a-side over the weekend!
I see Green party membership has overtaken Lib Dem membership while I was at 5-a-side. Maybe they'll overtake Labour when I play 11-a-side over the weekend!
The Green surge continues!
How many Green candidates will be standing? It may affect a few bets.
I see Green party membership has overtaken Lib Dem membership while I was at 5-a-side. Maybe they'll overtake Labour when I play 11-a-side over the weekend!
I am soooo going to win my bet with you.
The early settlement discount offer is still available.
I see Green party membership has overtaken Lib Dem membership while I was at 5-a-side. Maybe they'll overtake Labour when I play 11-a-side over the weekend!
The Green surge continues!
How many Green candidates will be standing? It may affect a few bets.
The target was 500 before this latest surge (there was a surge in Scotland after the Indy ref and then one everywhere after the initial exclusion from the debates). That has to be quite likely more with the potential of a a surprise on the upside. 4,000 or so members in 2 days and momentum isnt slacking yet.
I wish Nate Silver of 538.com fame would enter the fray with his forecast of the GE result in May ...... especially as it now seems clear that Son of OGM is not planning any re-run of his VIPA seat predictor or whatever today's equivalent model is called.
QT unwatchable with Soubry, Hasan and Starkey... Too much!
A truly painful experience.
The highlight so far has been Starkey calling Mehdi Hasan, Ahmed.
I saw that bit... Pretty poor show really, hope it wasn't deliberate... and then came Soubrys hammy acting to deliver the final blow to my viewing pleasure
I see Green party membership has overtaken Lib Dem membership while I was at 5-a-side. Maybe they'll overtake Labour when I play 11-a-side over the weekend!
The Green surge continues!
How many Green candidates will be standing? It may affect a few bets.
The target was 500 before this latest surge (there was a surge in Scotland after the Indy ref and then one everywhere after the initial exclusion from the debates). That has to be quite likely more with the potential of a a surprise on the upside. 4,000 or so members in 2 days and momentum isnt slacking yet.
Another miserable failure from the latest AGW proponent, Volcanopete, on here today. No evidence presented whatsoever to back up his case, and easily put in his place by Mr Tyndall.
And what an incredible day in the financial markets it has been. If you'd asked me 24 hours ago how long the Euro Swiss peg at 1.20 would last, I would have said until late on this year once we get past the great turn date of 1st October this year. It gives us some idea of the incredible pressures that have been building on the SNB, deposit rate of -0.75% and trading above parity against the Euro at the moment at EURCHF 0.9934! And into the bargain, all Swiss government debt below a term of 7 years trading on negative yield! If that's not a sign of extreme capital preservation in the markets then I don't know what is! The action just after 9.30am was around the most chaotic I've ever seen in Forex, on a par with that on Black Wednesday - an excellent summary here: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/15/swiss-peg-collapses-the-euros-nightmare/
The CHF 15% appreciation today is seriously bad news for a lot of Eastern European mortgage holders who were attracted to CHF mortgages at very low interest rates. But its no fun to find you owe 15% more in real terms tonight compared to a day ago. So expect there to be pain in the CHF mortgage space over the coming months.
Also Dr Copper, that great bellweather of the commodities has been succumbing to the emerging deflation trend, which is seriously bad news for Chile, and yet another indicator of the weakness of the global economy.
There does seem to be a race against time situation on. One country though seems to have escaped the Jihadist actions... Germany. It has plenty of them, has awful issues monitoring them. It is due trouble.
Their security services seem to be doing a good job.
Comments
"Be warned: if Ed Miliband gains power, the nanny state will take over, says @Nigel_Farage ind.pn/1B6OQ0U pic.twitter.com/VAPFKdCFX4 "
What do you think would be most damaging to the UK's world-wide reputation; to have a 'nanny state' or to have the most right wing government in Europe?
My constituency, Cardiff Central, is quite likely to have foreign votes greater than the majority and conceivably ( if not likely ) the cause of the majority (!)
A lib demerung...???
So that's bye-bye East Ham and a host of others at the next Boundary Review [if this is change is passed]...
[I simplify slightly, but it will hurt Labour overall]
"Nanny state" is boring too. If you think you don't already live in one, pop out for an AK47 and a pint of laudanum. If you are successful you are in Afghanistan or Somalia, which might make you think there's worse things than nanny states.
Edit to add: and what is this garbage about "the UK's world-wide reputation" anyway? Most of us aren't trying to market the UK, we are trying to bloody live in it.
"Please explain to me how The Great Budapest Hotel gets umpteen nominations. Thought it was boring in the extreme. Saw Foxcatcher the other day, brilliant performances and a film I would see again. Imitation Game great fun, even if historically inaccurate,and my choice for Oscars, ahead of Theory of Everything. Also an honourable mention for the anti UKIP film, Paddington, which gave me the most laughs of any film in the last year."
I agree with most of that. Wes Anderson is a quirky film maker. You either love them or fall asleep and that was about the best he's done. It's a bit like Monty Python. You either get it or you don't. I also enjoyed Paddington and thought Imitation Game better than Theory of.. Despite the brilliant mimicry of Redmayne (which will almost certainly win him the Oscar) Cumberbatch was more convincing to me as a problem solver
Read this and you will know exactly what he will say - http://hurryupharry.org/2015/01/14/being-an-islamist/
The likes of castle point, Thanet North, Dudley North, Yarmouth, Grimsby, Folkestone, Dover, and so on
Think there about 20 seats that ukip are 3/1 or shorter in, worth a look and better than going under 10% I think because 10-11% means 2-3 seats max
We've not seen the Hawkinge film yet; our daughter died of MND a year ago after a very horrifying few months. The idea of seeing someone surviving with it, and doing what Hawking has done, isn't something we fancy.
Agree about the inaccuracy of Imitation Game; the "heroine" in particular was not, I understand, well drawn. Cumberbatch was very, very believable, though.
http://youtu.be/Mq3amYWzYik
Lab 31.8
Con 29.4
Where do these figures come from? The don't seem to tie into current polls - Lab current polling lead is surely less than 2.4% however it is calculated.
classic own goal by labour attacking tories on NHS:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eLcwhgrxTWs
It's looking bad yet again for the Tories - wehever they close the gap, they seem to get slapped down again ..... Dave simply doesn't have it in him does he?
An honourable mention for the brilliantly shot Mr Turner, with Timothy Small a very credible Turner. One regret that I didn't know as much about the guy as I thought and would have been better to have read up a bit beforehand. On the other hand do NOT Google John du Pont before you see the excellent Foxcatcher as it will spoil your evening!
A terrific share price performance from Betfair over the past 3 months with their price having increased from 1100p to 1680p (incl a special redemption dividend).
Meanwhie Ladbrokes have remained stalled at 110p over the same period.
Speaks volumes really.
15/01/2015 18:52
KP unveils this 2 days after claiming he wasn't one of the top four egos in the England team. You couldn't make it up independent.co.uk/sport/cricket
And Ave it projects
CON 296
LAB 265
LD 35
SNP 14
PC 5
UKIP 1
GRN 1
NI 18
CON + LD = 331. Nick is David's friend really
Polls in Jan so far are good for Con - average Lab lead below 1%.
If Kellner is right that close on votes will be close on seats then Con is, potentially, in not a bad position.
In many ways Cameron is an amazing politician - criticised by just about everyone, hated by a large number of so called Con supporters and yet he's miles more popular than the Con Party and easily the most preferred person to be PM. Bit of a conundrum, isn't it!
Then tomorrow we have Populus which on Monday had LAB 5& ahead.
Wonder if it will ever catch on in Pakistan?
Thought not.
Story of a16 year old pupil whose virginity was taken by her religious studies teacher in a school cupboard
Judge: She groomed him
You couldn't make it up
CON 32 (=)
LAB 32 (-2)
LIB 6 (=)
UKIP 16 (+1)
GRN 8 (+1)
BTW TSE have you given up writing PB threads?
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/1999/apr/11/martinbright.theobserver1
What a liberal/pervy bunch we were in the seventies...
I'll still be doing the occasional thread here and there and Mike's booked his holiday for June.
Where'll I'll be standing in again for Mike.
If I'm honest my last stint as Guest Editor really took a lot out of me emotionally.
It covered the tail end of the Indyref, the aftermath, the conference season, Reckless defecting, a reported defection, The Clacton and Heywood by elections.
If the tory party has the misfortune 8 to have your allegiance, ponder the fact that Aidan Burley still has the party whip because an internal inquiry decided that it isn't racist to dress up as a nazi and toast the third reich. Ukip expels people like that.
I remember when they started up just before 2010 election, it was sooooooooo exciting to have a new pollster, LOL!
Not as exciting as when the first "Harris" poll appeared for years though. I wonder whether Harris will poll for 2-15? Or Gallup, LOL.
Mike Smithson and indeed all PBers owe you a great deal, no doubt about it.
Shocked and horrified to learn that OGH isn't on holiday again until June.
Then I pointed out this scenario
7th of May: General Election
8th of May: The Result, a well hung parliament with no realistic viable government
18th of May: Parliament meets, and as Dave is still the incumbent PM, a vote of no confidence in the government, which the government loses.
1st of June: The Provisions of the Fixed Term parliament act kicks in and a new general election is called.
2nd of June: The Tory Party and the Labour Party decide to remove Dave and Ed before the second election.
So I'll be editing PB during a potential currency crisis, two leadership elections and a general election campaign.
Because nothing ever happens when Mike's on holiday in Spain.
UKIP throw them out. The Tory party keep them as councillors and MPs. You should be utterly ashamed.
Mike thinks after the election he's going to need a longish break.
I enjoyed the stint, the high points were when Newsnight did a segment based on a thread I did and erm Kevin Maguire quoted one of pieces on the Sky Paper review (although he said it was Mike that wrote it)
The highlight so far has been Starkey calling Mehdi Hasan, Ahmed.
It is notable that authorities in Brussels said that the arrest of an arms dealer in Southern Belgium, who reportedly brokered weapon supply to Kosher supermarket terrorist Amedy Coulibaly, wasn't related to todays events.
It is, indirectly. The understanding is that Coulibaly may have also been a link man to others elsewhere, including kit supply. To that end he may have been a very useful jigsaw piece and its an assumption that he may have left some breadcrumbs behind him along with others involved in events in Paris.
What has been seen in Belgium today is a fraction of what is going on in terms of suppression and interdiction activities by Western European agencies in the last 48 hours and will continue. In reality for Belgium its about time something direct has been done like this, the country has, in scale terms, a Jihadi issue as near as substantive and near as long standing as we do.
There does seem to be a race against time situation on. One country though seems to have escaped the Jihadist actions... Germany. It has plenty of them, has awful issues monitoring them. It is due trouble.
How many Green candidates will be standing? It may affect a few bets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wc7g96GYBx0
The early settlement discount offer is still available.
I'll take £300 now.
Think of the children, why won't anyone think of the children?
Plans to open the first LGBT school in the UK are under way,with funding secured, and a site selected in Manchester.
The school, which is being planned by LGBT Youth North West, will host 40 full-time pupils, and will be established in the heart of the city.
Some part time places will be available for pupils who wish to continue attending a mainstream school.
The school is aimed at LGBT students who struggle to fit in at mainstream schools, but will also be open to any other children who wish to attend.
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2015/01/15/uks-first-lgbt-school-planned-for-the-manchester/
But teacher shagging the student in the cupboard isn't quite as wholesome, and is an abuse of his position
We only now need to ask if they believe Cameron's stance on encryption is correct. If they say yes we know they are not worth employing
Goodnight.
At least the Tories will be safe from trauma, it is the reason Gove created "free" schools.
And what an incredible day in the financial markets it has been. If you'd asked me 24 hours ago how long the Euro Swiss peg at 1.20 would last, I would have said until late on this year once we get past the great turn date of 1st October this year. It gives us some idea of the incredible pressures that have been building on the SNB, deposit rate of -0.75% and trading above parity against the Euro at the moment at EURCHF 0.9934! And into the bargain, all Swiss government debt below a term of 7 years trading on negative yield! If that's not a sign of extreme capital preservation in the markets then I don't know what is! The action just after 9.30am was around the most chaotic I've ever seen in Forex, on a par with that on Black Wednesday - an excellent summary here: http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/15/swiss-peg-collapses-the-euros-nightmare/
The CHF 15% appreciation today is seriously bad news for a lot of Eastern European mortgage holders who were attracted to CHF mortgages at very low interest rates. But its no fun to find you owe 15% more in real terms tonight compared to a day ago. So expect there to be pain in the CHF mortgage space over the coming months.
Also Dr Copper, that great bellweather of the commodities has been succumbing to the emerging deflation trend, which is seriously bad news for Chile, and yet another indicator of the weakness of the global economy.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_bomb_plot_in_Germany