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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour regain the lead with Ipsos Mori
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour regain the lead with Ipsos Mori
I said last months Ipsos-Mori and ICM phone polls were outliers, in this instance what we’re seeing is a return what the polls have been generally telling us for a few months now, it virtually neck and neck between The Tories and Labour.
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That's what I thought.
Oh you wanted a link?
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/polmon_jan2015web_THURS.pdf
http://www.irvinetimes.com/news/kilwinning/articles/2015/01/15/521387-parents-fury-that-some-kids-were-left-eating-in-the-cold/
QTWTAIN.
But its not looking good for the tories (unless you are looking from the perspective of the Lib Dems of course.
Either that "herding" theory that was linked to the other day is producing misleading results or BJO is going to prove correct: EICIPM. Oh lord.
Does this poll break down into England/Scotland?
I'll throw in the towel when I see that Ed is doing well in England.
With another couple of hundred opinion polls until the election there is lots of potential for an amusing outlier or two.
You're letting that bet with Neil affect your judgement.
Interesting that The Labour Leader is a whole 1% ahead of The Libdem Leader in the satisfaction ratings, not-so-toxic-Clegg.
Are you certain to vote?
a) Yes
b) No
c) God willing
The creaking UKIP ship is going down...
As a previous contestant, I've been asked to think about whether I know any potential future contestants - and as I recall this site very nearly managed to get a team together in the past, despite the geographical challenges involved.
Teams of 3 are required - so if anyone's interested then do comment and then DM each other to try to get something together.
Must be 18+ and UK resident - and the closing date is 9th Feb.
It's really good fun and you get well looked after by the crew.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7Pi89-IYAENx-I.jpg
(EDIT: oops - did I just press "send"??)
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/January15_Pol Monitor charts_EVENING STANDARD_FINAL_150115.pdf
Cameron's ratings continue to be very good. Miliband's continue to be dire.
One interesting chart is 'economic optimism'. It's a rather curious chart in some ways since, looking back over the years, people seem to have been particularly optimistic or pessimistic at very odd times.
Ozzie's Pensioner Bonds = Harry Kane
Gordon's Pensioner Council Tax bung = Bobby Sol
Unless Cameron can turn this into the most presidential election we have ever had the tories lose. And he doesn't seem to want to do the debates? I really don't get it. Cameron's relative popularity (the truth is we simply dislike him less than the rest) is the tories only trump card and they need to play it to death.
So labour lead overall must be predicated on the notion that labour will do rather well in Scotland.
Hasn't this notion been exposed as highly unlikely in recent weeks?
Tories need to match their 37% 2010 share to stand a chance of remaining in government. Doesn't look like happening.
Either that, or the polls overstate Ed's desperate performance whenever there is a real election in England since 2014.
Of course, it's possible that a second-placed Labour party could put together a deal with the Lib Dems and SNP to form a government.
Is he implying Cameron is a cock? How rude.
Maybe. When have labour batted up to a 33/34% score in a real election since the beginning of 2014?
So comparing these results against those before Ed managed to lose Scotland means that Labour must be doing comparatively better in England, albeit by a relatively small amount, just over 1%.
I assume the markets are closed pending declarations...
(Central forecast)
Con vote lead 10.7%
Con seat lead 112 seats
(10000 Monte Carlo simulations)
Chance of a Tory vote lead: 100.0%
Chance of a Tory seat lead: 99.9%
Chance of a Hung Parliament: 8.8%
Chance of a Tory majority: 91.2%
Chance of a Labour majority: 0.0%
Implying a Tory majority of around 36...
What are the other models currently showing?
On either polling metric.
I never knew that in this country there we so many fans of authoritarian, quasi fascist, happiness destroying, economically illiterate, hippy left wing politics.
We can only hope that Cameron is gambling that others will give way on green involvement and he wants the deck even more tilted in his favour. He needs to do the debates and win them to overcome the relative disadvantage of his party.
Byelection swingback: -0.5% n/c
Hanretty: 1.5% down
Fisher: 2.8% up
2009-2010 repeat: 2.8% down
Prosser: 5.0% n/c
L&N: 10.7% up
Which is your preferred model if you had to choose right now?
Remind me us all, the odds Mark Senior gave you on Caroline Lucas holding her seat?
Ok, 8/1.
He really, really doesnt like the Greens. Which is fair enough but it is silly to let it influence betting.
I'll make my choice at the end of January. (^_-)
That said CPGB definitely had many more members in its heyday.
As a Green supporter I still have to click through to the second page but it makes me wonder whether I'd immediately notice were the Greens to ever be moved to the first page or, the first time at least, would I still click through to the second list of prompts just out of habit?
I can't help but think that maybe a small but significant number of UKIP supporters might've done just this upon their first go with the new list structures - perhaps explaining the slight drop in their support after the changes?
Also the ar$e seems to be falling out of the Euro.
I retweeted that one too
The consensus view (which may or may not be correct) is that the SNB broke the Euro peg because it knows that Euro QE is coming next week, and it wanted to leave the party before it lost too much money.
Interestingly, the SNB supported its Euro peg by printing Swiss Francs. These were then used to buy Euros (to maintain the peg). The Swiss National Bank didn't want to accept the miniscule interest rates available on German or French government bonds, and therefore sold the Euros it had bought to buy US Dollars. The effect was therefore to simultaneously weaken the Swiss Franc against the Euro and weaken the Euro against the USD.
A good article by Delingpole, but to me it appears unfinished.
Labour heavily in front among 18-24 year olds, but now coming second from 45 up, rather than 65 up.
Money is entering into people's thinking. Interest rates, pensions, savings, wages, jobs.
I'm a bit confused.