I never knew that in this country there we so many fans of authoritarian, quasi fascist, happiness destroying, economically illiterate, hippy left wing politics.
Shadsy goes 4-1 for Al Murray to retain his deposit, so that means the tip of 1-3 the other side is now arbable with Hills, but I wouldn't bother as the golden rule of political bookies is that Shadsy is normally right. He also agrees it helps Farage's chances but the effect is marginal.
I have no idea if Greens, Lib Dems or Al Murray will poll more votes though, that is 2-1 the triple for me so no value there.
Wings over Scotland are drip feeding out the results of a Panelbase poll for Scotland. No party %s as yet, they're releasing rUK v Scotland attitude data at the moment.
Wings over Scotland are drip feeding out the results of a Panelbase poll for Scotland. No party %s as yet, they're releasing rUK v Scotland attitude data at the moment.
they have good comparisons with over 1000 in Scotland and 1300ish in rest UK , sure to be some interesting stuff in there.
Wings over Scotland are drip feeding out the results of a Panelbase poll for Scotland. No party %s as yet, they're releasing rUK v Scotland attitude data at the moment.
Wings over Scotland are drip feeding out the results of a Panelbase poll for Scotland. No party %s as yet, they're releasing rUK v Scotland attitude data at the moment.
Indeed. I've found his polls some of the most useful for detecting underlying patterns of opinion in the last few years, partly because his questions can be very different from others.
"The disconnect between public opinion and what the electorate can actually vote for will, we’re going to find over the course of this poll, become a recurring theme."
Miss Plato, those two are set in the same world. Sir Edric's Temple is entirely separate (and a comedy, unlike the other two which are 'serious' [there's a fair smattering of mirth, though]).
You may prefer to read Bane of Souls first, as it is first chronologically and some of the minor characters in it have major roles in Journey to Altmortis.
Interstellar isn't up for best film at the Oscars? Madness.
I am embarrassed to admit that I have not seen a single one of the nominations for best film although I hope to see the theory of everything at the weekend.
I did see Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl and thought that was a superb performance.
Miss Plato, those two are set in the same world. Sir Edric's Temple is entirely separate (and a comedy, unlike the other two which are 'serious' [there's a fair smattering of mirth, though]).
You may prefer to read Bane of Souls first, as it is first chronologically and some of the minor characters in it have major roles in Journey to Altmortis.
I rarely go to the cinema or see films, but was persuaded to see the Grand Budapest Hotel, which is really good. I'm amazed that Ralph Fiennes didn't get a nomination for best actor off the back of it - it was a pitch perfect performance, dominating a film that was stuffed full of A list actors. The film was good, but Ralph Fiennes's performance was great.
But comedies usually underperform at the Oscars, don't they?
I rarely go to the cinema or see films, but was persuaded to see the Grand Budapest Hotel, which is really good. I'm amazed that Ralph Fiennes didn't get a nomination for best actor off the back of it - it was a pitch perfect performance, dominating a film that was stuffed full of A list actors. The film was good, but Ralph Fiennes's performance was great.
But comedies usually underperform at the Oscars, don't they?
"Last month TSE suggested Ipsos-Mori and ICM phone polls were outliers, in this instance what we’re seeing is a return what the polls have been generally telling us for a few months now, it virtually neck and neck between The Tories and Labour."
I notice the header signed 'TSE'. You know the first sign of a megalomaniac is referring to yourself in the third person?
I rarely go to the cinema or see films, but was persuaded to see the Grand Budapest Hotel, which is really good. I'm amazed that Ralph Fiennes didn't get a nomination for best actor off the back of it - it was a pitch perfect performance, dominating a film that was stuffed full of A list actors. The film was good, but Ralph Fiennes's performance was great.
But comedies usually underperform at the Oscars, don't they?
I loved the Grand Budapest Hotel. It's one of Ralph Fiennes' best performances.
You're probably right about comedies. A shame because to make a good one requires real talent. In my top 10 I'd have Some Like it Hot and Dr Strangelove.
Miss Plato, last year that was much easier to answer (either 35% or 70% if self-published directly). However, the #VATMESS idiocy means it's more complicated now. I think I make the same in absolute terms, but if you buy from the UK it costs the buyer more. The VAT nonsense means prices actually vary across different markets even if set to be the same.
I actually make more for the digital version of Sir Edric's Temple than the physical copy, which costs £5 more. Self-publishing has great return rates (per sale) for e-books, but quite the reverse for print-on-demand.
I rarely go to the cinema or see films, but was persuaded to see the Grand Budapest Hotel, which is really good. I'm amazed that Ralph Fiennes didn't get a nomination for best actor off the back of it - it was a pitch perfect performance, dominating a film that was stuffed full of A list actors. The film was good, but Ralph Fiennes's performance was great.
But comedies usually underperform at the Oscars, don't they?
I loved the Grand Budapest Hotel. It's one of Ralph Fiennes' best performances.
You're probably right about comedies. A shame because to make a good one requires real talent. In my top 10 I'd have Some Like it Hot and Dr Strangelove.
Labour heavily in front among 18-24 year olds, but now coming second from 45 up, rather than 65 up.
Money is entering into people's thinking. Interest rates, pensions, savings, wages, jobs.
I thought it was an absolute masterstroke when Brown started talking about the state pension just before the Referendum.
It's such a basic thing - it's the sort of thing literally just about everybody would assume would be secure whatever happened.
For Brown to raise the prospect it might not be must have really scared a heck of a lot of pensioners - it was the 100% best thing possible to get a No vote.
Ditto now if Cameron can scare people - of course much more difficult for him to do so than the above example - but he can still give it a go.
'Cathal Goulding of the old ‘Official’ IRA had a famous quip about the Provisional’s Gerry Adams and the Real IRA’s Ruiarí Ó Brádaigh:
“We were right too soon, Gerry Adams was right too late and Ruiarí Ó Brádaigh will never be fuckin right”
Poor Murdo Fraser takes the rôle of Cathal Goulding in Scottish Politics. If his plan to create a separate Scottish Bavarian-style CSU from the ashes of the Conservatives had come about he would have made merry hay during the IndyRef. (I personally would stick Ian Davidson down as the Ó Brádaigh figure but that’s just me). The question remains is Jim Murphy right too late?'
And
'Secretly of course, the wise nationalists know that the ‘Jocking’ of the other Scottish parties is a key ratchet on the road to independence.'
So we need the Bedroom Tax because there is a chronic shortage of the right kind of council housing. If that is the case, can someone explain this:
THE government is to splash out on a new publicity offensive aimed at convincing tenants in Camden to buy their council homes, with posted reminders that a sales discount is now worth more than £100,000, the New Journal has learned.
He's dead sexy in Schindler's List - and very convincing - even when sniping a Jew. He's got something about him I can't put my finger on. Ultimately vulnerable and dangerous mixed into one.
Ian Somerhalder has it too but less so. I've never seen a more convincing kisser.
He's dead sexy in Schindler's List - and very convincing - even when sniping a Jew. He's got something about him I can't put my finger on. Ultimately vulnerable and dangerous mixed into one.
I didn't like the English Patient at all. Just didn't get the hype. Being a sh*t requires a special talent to be charismatic as well. Ian Somerhalder has it, he does great serial killer - Mr Fiennes didn't there.
He's dead sexy in Schindler's List - and very convincing - even when sniping a Jew. He's got something about him I can't put my finger on. Ultimately vulnerable and dangerous mixed into one.
"Interstellar isn't up for best film at the Oscars? Madness".
Interesting but it wouldn't have been in my top ten. It didn't really bring anything to the party that hadn't been brought many times since CGI became so widespread though I'm sure it'll do very well in the various effects categories.
I think Boyhood and Birdman were the two outstanding films of the year with an honourable mention for Budapest Hotel and Foxcatcher and the best English film was probably The Imitation Game.
Interstellar isn't up for best film at the Oscars? Madness.
I am embarrassed to admit that I have not seen a single one of the nominations for best film although I hope to see the theory of everything at the weekend.
I did see Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl and thought that was a superb performance.
The Theory of Everything is absolutely magnificent. It's a must-see.
[Don't get me started on the very disappointing The Imitation Game, or, as I prefer to call it, The Anachronism Game].
Embarrassing, like most internet articles called "5 ways to tell your husband is cheating on you", "7 A-list celebs with surprisingly small penises" etc. I note petitio principii, false dichotomy, appeal to authority and a lovely self-contradiction in almost every single "fallacy". Look at this:
"However, the real balance would give us 97 scientists supporting anthropogenic climate change and 2-3 against. Yes, a real high impact factor, extremely well respected journal, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, analyzed climate change science, and determined that 97-98% of researchers in climate science supported the tenets of human influenced climate change. The Skeptical Raptor adds that science denialists/skeptics try to create false equivalence through several methods (many of them fallacies of their own), including the claim that science is a democracy, ..."
Can anyone in the class point out the contradiction here?
He/she also demonstrably doesn't know what paradigm or deductive means, nor that "phenomenon" is singular.
Thank you for drawing this hilarious brain-fart to our attention.
Recent polls seem to support the thesis that Lab are going to come in at 33/34% in May. Not enough time left for major shifts.
Tories need to match their 37% 2010 share to stand a chance of remaining in government. Doesn't look like happening.
Tim Montgomerie has all but admitted on Twitter that the Tories have given up on attracting new voters themselves, and are now simply hoping to "split the left" and allow the Tories back in via the backdoor. Hence Cameron trying to get the Greens in the debates and him and Osborne emphasising that Labour voted for huge spending cuts the other day.
A Tory majority on ~35% of the vote remains a distinct possibility imo.
Interstellar isn't up for best film at the Oscars? Madness.
I am embarrassed to admit that I have not seen a single one of the nominations for best film although I hope to see the theory of everything at the weekend.
I did see Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl and thought that was a superb performance.
The Theory of Everything is absolutely magnificent. It's a must-see.
[Don't get me started on the very disappointing The Imitation Game, or, as I prefer to call it, The Anachronism Game].
"Interstellar isn't up for best film at the Oscars? Madness".
Interesting but it wouldn't have been in my top ten. It didn't really bring anything to the party that hadn't been brought many times since CGI became so widespread though I'm sure it'll do very well in the various effects categories.
I think Boyhood and Birdman were the two outstanding films of the year with an honourable mention for Budapest Hotel and Foxcatcher and the best English film was probably The Imitation Game.
I don't see as many movies as you, but I felt Interstellar was the only movie this year that really pushed the envelope in terms of storytelling. It wasn't just the stunning cinematography, but the sheer scale of it in space and time and also grappling with the big questions in new and interesting ways. McConnaughey was great as always, but Chastain and, unexpectedly, Damon really brought the human desperation to life.
I felt the Imitation Game was very well done as a movie, even if they played with history to fit the right movies notes a lot. Grand Budapest Hotel was hilarious and perfectly executed. Theory of Everything probably deserves best actor, but I felt it was a little bit twee and stilted in terms of the story. There's only so much you can do with just a love story - they missed a trick in not going into the man's work a bit more.
Embarrassing, like most internet articles called "5 ways to tell your husband is cheating on you", "7 A-list celebs with surprisingly small penises" etc. I note petitio principii, false dichotomy, appeal to authority and a lovely self-contradiction in almost every single "fallacy". Look at this:
"However, the real balance would give us 97 scientists supporting anthropogenic climate change and 2-3 against. Yes, a real high impact factor, extremely well respected journal, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, analyzed climate change science, and determined that 97-98% of researchers in climate science supported the tenets of human influenced climate change. The Skeptical Raptor adds that science denialists/skeptics try to create false equivalence through several methods (many of them fallacies of their own), including the claim that science is a democracy, ..."
Can anyone in the class point out the contradiction here?
He/she also demonstrably doesn't know what paradigm or deductive means, nor that "phenomenon" is singular.
Thank you for drawing this hilarious brain-fart to our attention.
You're attacking the wording, not addressing the points raised. It's an important subject and deserves more than your 'brain-fart' comments.
Mr. Roger, hope you do. Whilst I'm really not a film buff, it's a nice annual distraction from pure politicking, especially welcome during a prolonged and pretty rubbish election campaign.
[Don't get me started on the very disappointing The Imitation Game, or, as I prefer to call it, The Anachronism Game].
Funny you should think that. I who have no knowledge of either physics or the enigma machine found the Imitation Game a much more interesting story. Both had something of a TV film about them but whereas the Imitation Game had a story-and in parts a moving story -at it's centre The Theory of Everything seemed just a bit too kitchen sink albeit with a brilliant impersonation of Hawking
'Cathal Goulding of the old ‘Official’ IRA had a famous quip about the Provisional’s Gerry Adams and the Real IRA’s Ruiarí Ó Brádaigh:
“We were right too soon, Gerry Adams was right too late and Ruiarí Ó Brádaigh will never be fuckin right”
Poor Murdo Fraser takes the rôle of Cathal Goulding in Scottish Politics. If his plan to create a separate Scottish Bavarian-style CSU from the ashes of the Conservatives had come about he would have made merry hay during the IndyRef. (I personally would stick Ian Davidson down as the Ó Brádaigh figure but that’s just me). The question remains is Jim Murphy right too late?'
And
'Secretly of course, the wise nationalists know that the ‘Jocking’ of the other Scottish parties is a key ratchet on the road to independence.'
A very balanced article. I think we can all agree that Jim Murphy is going to be a polarising figure in GE2015, he will either revive SLAB’s fortunes or bring them to new lows. To date, the Murphy phenomenon is a creation of mainstream media and political commentators. That was why many of us Scots couldn’t fathom why Murphy’s anointing as the SLAB leader was such great news. Due to blanket media coverage of the last few months, Murphy has got good name recognition, but very few Scots actually know the record of the man. Once the media start covering his back story, it will be interesting to see what impact this has.
I think Labour need to focus on simple, clean messaging of national policies. Any attempt to offer Scots anything extra could easily backfire for Labour and SLAB. Instead of starting to fight the Holyrood 2016 campaign, Murphy first has to negotiate GE2015, without shooting himself and possibly his party in the head.
Interestingly, although we seem to have SNP and Scottish Tory input on the PB site, we don’t seem to have much input from the SLAB supporters, I’m not sure what we can read in to this, if anything.
[Don't get me started on the very disappointing The Imitation Game, or, as I prefer to call it, The Anachronism Game].
Funny you should think that. I who have no knowledge of either physics or the enigma machine found the Imitation Game a much more interesting story. Both had something of a TV film about them but whereas the Imitation Game had a story-and in parts a moving story -at it's centre The Theory of Everything seemed just a bit too kitchen sink albeit with a brilliant impersonation of Hawkins
Well, the Enigma story is of course much more interesting, but that was part of the frustration: they had actually achieved the remarkable feat of making it less interesting than the reality. Of course, they had to simplify it, which is fair enough, but even so... Then there was the portrayal of Turing, which was crude.
But it was the anachronisms which really got my goat. Some of them were absolutely ludicrous, such as the team hugging each other when they broke the code. A group hug. In the 1940s???
And why was Keira Knightley playing herself in the film?
The sad thing is that it could easily have been so much better, but they've now wrecked the opportunity for a good film on the subject, probably for many years.
"Last month TSE suggested Ipsos-Mori and ICM phone polls were outliers, in this instance what we’re seeing is a return what the polls have been generally telling us for a few months now, it virtually neck and neck between The Tories and Labour."
I notice the header signed 'TSE'. You know the first sign of a megalomaniac is referring to yourself in the third person?
TSE wrote this thread header then Mike edited and stuck in a tweet and it made TSE look like he was talking in the third person.
TSE can confirm he didn't talk about himself in the third person in the original thread header.
TSE says people who talk about themselves in the third person are numpties.
Embarrassing, like most internet articles called "5 ways to tell your husband is cheating on you", "7 A-list celebs with surprisingly small penises" etc. I note petitio principii, false dichotomy, appeal to authority and a lovely self-contradiction in almost every single "fallacy". Look at this:
"However, the real balance would give us 97 scientists supporting anthropogenic climate change and 2-3 against. Yes, a real high impact factor, extremely well respected journal, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, analyzed climate change science, and determined that 97-98% of researchers in climate science supported the tenets of human influenced climate change. The Skeptical Raptor adds that science denialists/skeptics try to create false equivalence through several methods (many of them fallacies of their own), including the claim that science is a democracy, ..."
Can anyone in the class point out the contradiction here?
He/she also demonstrably doesn't know what paradigm or deductive means, nor that "phenomenon" is singular.
Thank you for drawing this hilarious brain-fart to our attention.
You're attacking the wording, not addressing the points raised. It's an important subject and deserves more than your 'brain-fart' comments.
No. He is pointing out that the basic framework of the article which correctly sets out a series of problems and errors made in scientific debates is utterly undermined by the fact that it then defends climate scientist activists who are guilty of practicing exactly the errors and logical fallacies the article is trying address.
Chinese pollution levels today were beyond the maximum of the scale of the air pollution they use. Crazy.
There's a real danger this will cause a brain and wealth drain for the country. If you've got the money to move out, you will. Why knock ten years off the life expectancy of you and your children?
"Last month TSE suggested Ipsos-Mori and ICM phone polls were outliers, in this instance what we’re seeing is a return what the polls have been generally telling us for a few months now, it virtually neck and neck between The Tories and Labour."
I notice the header signed 'TSE'. You know the first sign of a megalomaniac is referring to yourself in the third person?
TSE wrote this thread header then Mike edited and stuck in a tweet and it made TSE look like he was talking in the third person.
TSE can confirm he didn't talk about himself in the third person in the original thread header.
TSE says people who talk about themselves in the third person are numpties.
I like to thing you are dictating your posts to a secretary, who is typing them for you.
"Last month TSE suggested Ipsos-Mori and ICM phone polls were outliers, in this instance what we’re seeing is a return what the polls have been generally telling us for a few months now, it virtually neck and neck between The Tories and Labour."
I notice the header signed 'TSE'. You know the first sign of a megalomaniac is referring to yourself in the third person?
TSE wrote this thread header then Mike edited and stuck in a tweet and it made TSE look like he was talking in the third person.
TSE can confirm he didn't talk about himself in the third person in the original thread header.
TSE says people who talk about themselves in the third person are numpties.
I like to thing you are dictating your posts to a secretary, who is typing them for you.
I have composed a few PB threads using Siri on my iPad and iPhone.
Embarrassing, like most internet articles called "5 ways to tell your husband is cheating on you", "7 A-list celebs with surprisingly small penises" etc. I note petitio principii, false dichotomy, appeal to authority and a lovely self-contradiction in almost every single "fallacy". Look at this:
"However, the real balance would give us 97 scientists supporting anthropogenic climate change and 2-3 against. Yes, a real high impact factor, extremely well respected journal, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, analyzed climate change science, and determined that 97-98% of researchers in climate science supported the tenets of human influenced climate change. The Skeptical Raptor adds that science denialists/skeptics try to create false equivalence through several methods (many of them fallacies of their own), including the claim that science is a democracy, ..."
Can anyone in the class point out the contradiction here?
He/she also demonstrably doesn't know what paradigm or deductive means, nor that "phenomenon" is singular.
Thank you for drawing this hilarious brain-fart to our attention.
You're attacking the wording, not addressing the points raised. It's an important subject and deserves more than your 'brain-fart' comments.
No, I am addressing the points raised. For instance, either it is important that 97% of scientists think x, or it is a fallacy that science is a democracy. Which?
Or look at this: "At the root of this conviction is the unfounded assumption that humanity's scientific and technological achievements somehow lie outside of nature, and that our activities in the Universe often serve to disrupt the natural flow or equilibria of things." Well, nuclear bombs and non-degradable plastics seem to me to do exactly that, and presumably this moron would add AGW to that list. So he calls something an "unfounded assumption" when it turns out on two seconds' thought to be true.
Or this: why 7 is called "Withholding of Consent" I have no idea, but it's about axioms and he doesn't seem to know what they are or how they work. They are not theories which have got across the chess board and been turned into queens. Hint: what happens when you discard Euclid's axioms about parallel lines (and what makes it legitimate to do so)?
It is indeed an important subject, which is why it deserves better than ill-educated catchpenny nonsense like this.
Al-Sisi isn't saying anything new that hasn't been said by autocratic secularists in the Muslim world since Ataturk. The problem is that his arguments become discredited because they get associated with the brutal rule of a dictator.
If there's hope for the Muslim world it lies in Tunisia and Indonesia, not Egypt. But it's a long, long way to go.
Excellent co-ordination by the Pope today to follow Ed Miliband's crusading leadership on anthropogenic climate change.The science is not on the side of the deniers,yet that is where Ukip and the Tory right are,tea party Tories.
Entries close 7pm Saturday 24th Jan - buy or sell UK and international leaders and events, and predict the end of year oil price, FTSE, dollar, and euro fx rates - background links available for all markets in the competition.
It feels like we're watching one of those long distance races waiting and expecting one of the runners to make a break for it. Though in that scenario it's difficult to see that party being other than the Conservatives logic says that between the Greens Labour the SNP and the Lib Dems the progressives have a greater scope for tactical voting.
Excellent co-ordination by the Pope today to follow Ed Miliband's crusading leadership on anthropogenic climate change.The science is not on the side of the deniers,yet that is where Ukip and the Tory right are,tea party Tories.
If the Pope's invisible friend has weighed in on the side of warmism, that pretty much wraps it up for AGW.
Why do you persist in your wilful space-after-commas-and-full-stops denial, incidentally, in the face of the overwhelming consensus of the world typographical community?
Excellent co-ordination by the Pope today to follow Ed Miliband's crusading leadership on anthropogenic climate change.The science is not on the side of the deniers,yet that is where Ukip and the Tory right are,tea party Tories.
If the Pope's invisible friend has weighed in on the side of warmism, that pretty much wraps it up for AGW.
Why do you persist in your wilful space-after-commas-and-full-stops denial, incidentally, in the face of the overwhelming consensus of the world typographical community?
My eye twitches every time I read a comment without spaces after the punctuation (damn my OCD). Saying that, it may be a convention to do this when typing in a foreign language?
Taking the result of one opinion poll does not put anything into context. Previous MORI put the two-party share at 61% - where was his precious context then, eh?
The combined share for England, Wales, and Scotland is at 67% in MORI, and was 67% in 2010. It is, in any case, only one poll, and 67% is a historic low.
And in General elections the combined Lab & Tory vote is down from 70% in the 70s and 80s to 42% the last couple of times... The hidden dnvs keep the illusion alive...the majority of people don't vote labour or Tory
I disagree Mr S. When the case was UK citizens couldn't vote in Ireland, there was a strong case, but now there is a reciprical arrangement it seems pretty fair.
I can see no instance in which Irish citizens should be banned from voting in the UK unless of course their first name is Neil.
Excellent co-ordination by the Pope today to follow Ed Miliband's crusading leadership on anthropogenic climate change.The science is not on the side of the deniers,yet that is where Ukip and the Tory right are,tea party Tories.
LOL. The tin foil conspiracy theorist commenting on yet another subject he knows absolutely nothing about and using religion to support his case. It just gets better.
A very balanced article. I think we can all agree that Jim Murphy is going to be a polarising figure in GE2015, he will either revive SLAB’s fortunes or bring them to new lows. To date, the Murphy phenomenon is a creation of mainstream media and political commentators. That was why many of us Scots couldn’t fathom why Murphy’s anointing as the SLAB leader was such great news. Due to blanket media coverage of the last few months, Murphy has got good name recognition, but very few Scots actually know the record of the man. Once the media start covering his back story, it will be interesting to see what impact this has.
I think Labour need to focus on simple, clean messaging of national policies. Any attempt to offer Scots anything extra could easily backfire for Labour and SLAB. Instead of starting to fight the Holyrood 2016 campaign, Murphy first has to negotiate GE2015, without shooting himself and possibly his party in the head.
Interestingly, although we seem to have SNP and Scottish Tory input on the PB site, we don’t seem to have much input from the SLAB supporters, I’m not sure what we can read in to this, if anything.
Indeed. His recent speech, for instance, risks invoking divisions in unpredictable ways. And those Scots who do not have a dog in that particular fight will be very annoyed he is geeing the canines up again. And although I have aske several times how Mr Murphy is going to make the transition to MSP, nobody has been able to explain it to my satisfaction unless the rules are to be changed to let Mr M take a sabb between Westminster and Holyrood [edit: ie he does not have to be a MP or MSP].
Re PB SlABbers, I asked that too soon after I came on board and I am assured by older hands that there haven't been any SLABbers for years. The rationalist in me is inclined to wonder if it is because there are so few pukka party members (especially after the numbers were so carefuly concealed in the leadership election). But it is a shame as it would have been interesting to get their take. Instead we have the occasional PB Tories saying how wonderful Mr Murphy is, which is a back-handed endorsement in a Scottish context, to say the least.
Excellent co-ordination by the Pope today to follow Ed Miliband's crusading leadership on anthropogenic climate change.The science is not on the side of the deniers,yet that is where Ukip and the Tory right are,tea party Tories.
[Don't get me started on the very disappointing The Imitation Game, or, as I prefer to call it, The Anachronism Game].
Funny you should think that. I who have no knowledge of either physics or the enigma machine found the Imitation Game a much more interesting story. Both had something of a TV film about them but whereas the Imitation Game had a story-and in parts a moving story -at it's centre The Theory of Everything seemed just a bit too kitchen sink albeit with a brilliant impersonation of Hawking
Please explain to me how The Great Budapest Hotel gets umpteen nominations. Thought it was boring in the extreme. Saw Foxcatcher the other day, brilliant performances and a film I would see again. Imitation Game great fun, even if historically inaccurate,and my choice for Oscars, ahead of Theory of Everything. Also an honourable mention for the anti UKIP film, Paddington, which gave me the most laughs of any film in the last year.
Independent Voices (@IndyVoices) 15/01/2015 18:11 Be warned: if Ed Miliband gains power, the nanny state will take over, says @Nigel_Farage ind.pn/1B6OQ0U pic.twitter.com/VAPFKdCFX4
Looking at the YouGov splits of UKIP voters, ex-Labour 2010 voters are apparently the least likely to be UKIP supporters now: according to YouGov, there are circa three times as many 2010 Conservative voters backing UKIP than Labour.
That doesn't look right to me and it doesn't correspond with what we have seen coming out of recent elections (H and M, Stroud going UKIP in Rochester, the local elections in the North where UKIP has made significant inroads etc). A few Labour-leaning punters on here have also commented that the vibe is that the WWC is deserting Labour but that the middle classes are loyal. Given many of the latter were probably 2010 LD flirters, that has to raise some questions about Labour's traditional base.
When it comes down to actual votes, Labour's performance generally under performs the polls.
An educated guess is that many of UKIP 's older Northern, WWC voters are somewhat wary of admitting to pollsters that they back UKIP given the general perception that you are slightly old fashioned / intolerant etc if you back them.
My feeling is we are ignoring common sense and the signals and relying on a set of instruments that may be flawed.
''My feeling is we are ignoring common sense and the signals and relying on a set of instruments that may be flawed.''
A brilliant analysis, and one that I agree with entirely. The polls and the real votes simply do not tally. The left says a GE will be different, I'm not so sure.
Danny565 Of course Blair got a majority of over 60 on 35% in 2005, I think a Tory-LD coalition remains the most likely outcome though, I can't see Labour falling to 28%, even below Brown, which would give the Tories their 7% lead, most of the move from Labour to Green has been from leftie 2010 LDs who moved to Miliband's Labour and then the Greens, not from 2010 Labour to Green, and clearly some of those 2010 LDs are sticking with Miliband
Interesting spat between Murdoch and Rowling.......
Murdoch "Maybe most Moslems are peaceful, but until they recognize and destroy their growing jihadist cancer they must be held responsible."
Rowling “I was born Christian. If that makes Rupert Murdoch my responsibility, I’ll auto-excommunicate.”
Yes I'm sure the Islington luvvies will find that hilariously funny.
Meanwhile BBC QT in their best traditions of balance have invited the following post-Charlie panel on to the show.
Mehdi Hasan (apologist) Sal Brinton (LD Friend of Palestine and apologist)) Anna Soubry (drippingly wet Tory apologist) Wee Dougie (who cares) David Starkey (eccentric)
How many of these worthies will be looking to excise the growing Jihadist cancer?
On the Oscars Gone Girl was my film of the year, a pity it was not nominated, but Rosamund Pike is nominated for best actress in the film, Eddie Redmayne has to be best actor for Theory of Everything, even Hawking said he felt at times he was watching himself, Interstellar, Selma and Mr Turner also have reason to be aggrieved they did not get more nods
Comments
http://www.theguardian.com/media/2015/jan/14/al-jazeera-may-make-alternative-leaders-debate-bid-embracing-green-party
Any chance you can re-post your chicken picture from last week?
Just put the bin out. Howling a gale. Hope it stays upright overnight.
Shadsy goes 4-1 for Al Murray to retain his deposit, so that means the tip of 1-3 the other side is now arbable with Hills, but I wouldn't bother as the golden rule of political bookies is that Shadsy is normally right. He also agrees it helps Farage's chances but the effect is marginal.
I have no idea if Greens, Lib Dems or Al Murray will poll more votes though, that is 2-1 the triple for me so no value there.
But you've got a pair of novels to crack on with. Hope you like them.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/we-are-not-all-charlie/#more-65511
"The disconnect between public opinion and what the electorate can actually vote for will, we’re going to find over the course of this poll, become a recurring theme."
You may prefer to read Bane of Souls first, as it is first chronologically and some of the minor characters in it have major roles in Journey to Altmortis.
I did see Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl and thought that was a superb performance.
Out of curiosity - what do authors get from the Amazon price?
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/01/15/us-belgium-security-report-idUKKBN0KO25X20150115
But comedies usually underperform at the Oscars, don't they?
Witnesses reported hearing heavy gunfire for several minutes and at least three explosions.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30840160
I notice the header signed 'TSE'. You know the first sign of a megalomaniac is referring to yourself in the third person?
You're probably right about comedies. A shame because to make a good one requires real talent. In my top 10 I'd have Some Like it Hot and Dr Strangelove.
I actually make more for the digital version of Sir Edric's Temple than the physical copy, which costs £5 more. Self-publishing has great return rates (per sale) for e-books, but quite the reverse for print-on-demand.
Even better in Schindler's List
Tony Curtis' pout and Jack Lemmon plucking at his bra. And Sugar singing this > https://youtube.com/watch?v=Xa-2gP7_d3c
It's such a basic thing - it's the sort of thing literally just about everybody would assume would be secure whatever happened.
For Brown to raise the prospect it might not be must have really scared a heck of a lot of pensioners - it was the 100% best thing possible to get a No vote.
Ditto now if Cameron can scare people - of course much more difficult for him to do so than the above example - but he can still give it a go.
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2015/01/14/gravedigger-or-saviour/
'Cathal Goulding of the old ‘Official’ IRA had a famous quip about the Provisional’s Gerry Adams and the Real IRA’s Ruiarí Ó Brádaigh:
“We were right too soon, Gerry Adams was right too late and Ruiarí Ó Brádaigh will never be fuckin right”
Poor Murdo Fraser takes the rôle of Cathal Goulding in Scottish Politics. If his plan to create a separate Scottish Bavarian-style CSU from the ashes of the Conservatives had come about he would have made merry hay during the IndyRef. (I personally would stick Ian Davidson down as the Ó Brádaigh figure but that’s just me). The question remains is Jim Murphy right too late?'
And
'Secretly of course, the wise nationalists know that the ‘Jocking’ of the other Scottish parties is a key ratchet on the road to independence.'
THE government is to splash out on a new publicity offensive aimed at convincing tenants in Camden to buy their council homes, with posted reminders that a sales discount is now worth more than £100,000, the New Journal has learned.
http://www.camdennewjournal.com/news/2015/jan/government-target-camden-tenants-right-buy-publicity-campaign
Does the Right to Buy apply even if you are buying a house with more bedrooms than you need?
Ian Somerhalder has it too but less so. I've never seen a more convincing kisser.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30840160
Good in The English Patient though, but probably because his character was a bit of a sh*t.
Speculation rife. we wont know full truth 'till later, methinks.
I presume you must have a few quid resting on yours....
"Interstellar isn't up for best film at the Oscars? Madness".
Interesting but it wouldn't have been in my top ten. It didn't really bring anything to the party that hadn't been brought many times since CGI became so widespread though I'm sure it'll do very well in the various effects categories.
I think Boyhood and Birdman were the two outstanding films of the year with an honourable mention for Budapest Hotel and Foxcatcher and the best English film was probably The Imitation Game.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/cheats/2015/01/15/3-killed-in-terrorism-raid-in-belgium.html
Whew, what a relief; so that's OK then.
[Don't get me started on the very disappointing The Imitation Game, or, as I prefer to call it, The Anachronism Game].
"However, the real balance would give us 97 scientists supporting anthropogenic climate change and 2-3 against. Yes, a real high impact factor, extremely well respected journal, the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, analyzed climate change science, and determined that 97-98% of researchers in climate science supported the tenets of human influenced climate change.
The Skeptical Raptor adds that science denialists/skeptics try to create false equivalence through several methods (many of them fallacies of their own), including the claim that science is a democracy, ..."
Can anyone in the class point out the contradiction here?
He/she also demonstrably doesn't know what paradigm or deductive means, nor that "phenomenon" is singular.
Thank you for drawing this hilarious brain-fart to our attention.
And what's all this "oooh but the special effects" stuff (apart from the big wave)?
Wasn't actually mine, just a retweet!
https://twitter.com/bevclack/status/553231705247870977
A Tory majority on ~35% of the vote remains a distinct possibility imo.
I'm not sure yet. I'll look at the nominations and see whether I'd have chosen the same shortlist
I felt the Imitation Game was very well done as a movie, even if they played with history to fit the right movies notes a lot. Grand Budapest Hotel was hilarious and perfectly executed. Theory of Everything probably deserves best actor, but I felt it was a little bit twee and stilted in terms of the story. There's only so much you can do with just a love story - they missed a trick in not going into the man's work a bit more.
[Don't get me started on the very disappointing The Imitation Game, or, as I prefer to call it, The Anachronism Game].
Funny you should think that. I who have no knowledge of either physics or the enigma machine found the Imitation Game a much more interesting story. Both had something of a TV film about them but whereas the Imitation Game had a story-and in parts a moving story -at it's centre The Theory of Everything seemed just a bit too kitchen sink albeit with a brilliant impersonation of Hawking
I think Labour need to focus on simple, clean messaging of national policies. Any attempt to offer Scots anything extra could easily backfire for Labour and SLAB. Instead of starting to fight the Holyrood 2016 campaign, Murphy first has to negotiate GE2015, without shooting himself and possibly his party in the head.
Interestingly, although we seem to have SNP and Scottish Tory input on the PB site, we don’t seem to have much input from the SLAB supporters, I’m not sure what we can read in to this, if anything.
But it was the anachronisms which really got my goat. Some of them were absolutely ludicrous, such as the team hugging each other when they broke the code. A group hug. In the 1940s???
And why was Keira Knightley playing herself in the film?
The sad thing is that it could easily have been so much better, but they've now wrecked the opportunity for a good film on the subject, probably for many years.
TSE can confirm he didn't talk about himself in the third person in the original thread header.
TSE says people who talk about themselves in the third person are numpties.
Like Caesar?
There's a real danger this will cause a brain and wealth drain for the country. If you've got the money to move out, you will. Why knock ten years off the life expectancy of you and your children?
Or look at this: "At the root of this conviction is the unfounded assumption that humanity's scientific and technological achievements somehow lie outside of nature, and that our activities in the Universe often serve to disrupt the natural flow or equilibria of things." Well, nuclear bombs and non-degradable plastics seem to me to do exactly that, and presumably this moron would add AGW to that list. So he calls something an "unfounded assumption" when it turns out on two seconds' thought to be true.
Or this: why 7 is called "Withholding of Consent" I have no idea, but it's about axioms and he doesn't seem to know what they are or how they work. They are not theories which have got across the chess board and been turned into queens. Hint: what happens when you discard Euclid's axioms about parallel lines (and what makes it legitimate to do so)?
It is indeed an important subject, which is why it deserves better than ill-educated catchpenny nonsense like this.
If there's hope for the Muslim world it lies in Tunisia and Indonesia, not Egypt. But it's a long, long way to go.
Con: 33-34-30-32-32-33
Lab: 33-33-33-29-29-34
"TSE can confirm he didn't talk about himself in the third person in the original thread header."
Fair enough. Roger accepts your explanation
Evening all, for anyone who would like to play, the new season is now open, with the first game, Leaders and Finance now available:
http://www.electiongame.co.uk/2015-leaders-finance/
Entries close 7pm Saturday 24th Jan - buy or sell UK and international leaders and events, and predict the end of year oil price, FTSE, dollar, and euro fx rates - background links available for all markets in the competition.
Greece game will be out soon.
Many thanks,
DC
Why do you persist in your wilful space-after-commas-and-full-stops denial, incidentally, in the face of the overwhelming consensus of the world typographical community?
http://www.thejournal.ie/irish-people-voting-in-uk-1869774-Jan2015/
Free veggie bergers?
http://electionforecast.co.uk/
I can see no instance in which Irish citizens should be banned from voting in the UK unless of course their first name is Neil.
Re PB SlABbers, I asked that too soon after I came on board and I am assured by older hands that there haven't been any SLABbers for years. The rationalist in me is inclined to wonder if it is because there are so few pukka party members (especially after the numbers were so carefuly concealed in the leadership election). But it is a shame as it would have been interesting to get their take. Instead we have the occasional PB Tories saying how wonderful Mr Murphy is, which is a back-handed endorsement in a Scottish context, to say the least.
Seven seats where it might matter, although a million voters on the roll...
57% of the voters in East Ham are foreign born.
Murdoch "Maybe most Moslems are peaceful, but until they recognize and destroy their growing jihadist cancer they must be held responsible."
Rowling “I was born Christian. If that makes Rupert Murdoch my responsibility, I’ll auto-excommunicate.”
15/01/2015 18:11
Be warned: if Ed Miliband gains power, the nanny state will take over, says @Nigel_Farage ind.pn/1B6OQ0U pic.twitter.com/VAPFKdCFX4
That doesn't look right to me and it doesn't correspond with what we have seen coming out of recent elections (H and M, Stroud going UKIP in Rochester, the local elections in the North where UKIP has made significant inroads etc). A few Labour-leaning punters on here have also commented that the vibe is that the WWC is deserting Labour but that the middle classes are loyal. Given many of the latter were probably 2010 LD flirters, that has to raise some questions about Labour's traditional base.
When it comes down to actual votes, Labour's performance generally under performs the polls.
An educated guess is that many of UKIP 's older Northern, WWC voters are somewhat wary of admitting to pollsters that they back UKIP given the general perception that you are slightly old fashioned / intolerant etc if you back them.
My feeling is we are ignoring common sense and the signals and relying on a set of instruments that may be flawed.
https://www.yumpu.com/en/document/view/17982645/forecasting-british-elections-stony-brook-university
http://www.dcern.org.uk/documents/LeboandNorpothForecast2010.pdf
http://www.researchgate.net/publication/231982539_The_PM_and_the_Pendulum_Dynamic_Forecasting_of_British_Elections/file/3deec52c594e893d0e.pdf
A brilliant analysis, and one that I agree with entirely. The polls and the real votes simply do not tally. The left says a GE will be different, I'm not so sure.
Meanwhile BBC QT in their best traditions of balance have invited the following post-Charlie panel on to the show.
Mehdi Hasan (apologist)
Sal Brinton (LD Friend of Palestine and apologist))
Anna Soubry (drippingly wet Tory apologist)
Wee Dougie (who cares)
David Starkey (eccentric)
How many of these worthies will be looking to excise the growing Jihadist cancer?