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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Al Murray’s South Thanet bid looks like an effort to stop Nigel Farage
Al Murray, the public school educated Oxford graduate, who has risen to fame as the Pub Landlord, launched his bid to take on Nigel Farage in Thanet South this afternoon.
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Leaders get a boost, so that should help Farage, on the flip side, Farage is a piss poor campaigner in FPTP elections.
Last time he finished third in a two horse race behind the founder of the Pro-Euro Tory Party.
Diversity in action.
Christie, Romney, Bush. The establishment vote could get badly split.
The sheer amount of electoral data this guy puts out is amazing:
https://twitter.com/ukelections2015
One presumes he thinks he's being clever by standing under "FUKP" - with amusing UKIP'py policies - because he thinks sufficient UKIP sympathisers might fall for it, and be stupid enough to vote for him.
In reality, he'll mop up a few hundred votes of people like him - young, educated and soft-left - who don't like UKIP.
Whether that has any effect on the result remains to be seen. I can't see that constituency voting tactically for the Tories under any scenario, so the bearing on the result should be negligible.
(PS. It could backfire if it's seen to just be mocking UKIP, and just add as a further boon to increasing - albeit, very marginally - UKIP voter turnout)
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories held on.
I'd be betting heavily on it if Laura Sandys was the Tory candidate.
Very impressive lady.
But the Tory candidate is a fine principled, patriotic lion, who defected from UKIP (in fact he's an ex UKIP Leader)
If the outsider is ultimately plausible, they can capitalise on that and win the nomination. If they're a nutjob, they'll get found out or the establishment will coalescence around one candidate to stop them.
Given that he has backed the 10/3 on the back of it etc etc #politicalbetting
What do you do?
It's easy to forget, but the GE is really quite a serious thing, Monster raving loony are bad enough, but combining their credibility with publicity seeking surely isn't something that anyone can approve of. (And by this I mean Murray, for the avoidance of doubt!)
I had to look this buffoon up, and he failed to live up to my low expectations.
It seems the BBC have decided Cameron is the slippery eel and the others can puff their chests out.
OT. Today's Sid and Doris award goes to........
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2908579/Orthodox-Israeli-newspaper-airbrushes-female-world-leaders-JeSuisCharlie-march-photographs.html
In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !
I'm on for £50 even if it is 1-3... no way he polls 2,500 votes.
And surely equally possibly Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!, depending what you paid for it?
He's highly unlikely to make any effort, other than a couple of comedy TV appearances in S. Thanet. That won't win him 2500 votes.
Unless some kind of Beppe Grillo parody FUKP *movement* takes off between now & may, 1/3 is a dead cert.
The Tories haven't selected their candidate yet.
They are asking around for someone to stand.
The right candidate could topple Nick Clegg.
A charismatic, intelligent chap, with an excellent knowledge of history, music and politics, who lives in Sheffield Hallam could do it.
#JustSaying
Bravo George Osborne.
Strangely enough possibly the funniest 'FUKP' policy gag is at the expense of Russell 'paradigm' Brand rather than Nige.
http://boingboing.net/2015/01/13/what-david-cameron-just-propos.html
I have launched internet access services, written contracts with foreign govts, written speeches for a Lord, passed MOD 05-21, installed equipment, written DBASe repoorts, used Cobol, launched mobile products, run pr events at the sports grounds, presented to 2,000+, managed sales and customer service units, managed projectsof >£50m, represented UK company on foreign tv in 4 countries..... etc etc
and ..... Never been paid by the public sector.
Aren't they redeeming Consols 2.5% too? There was also (I think) a 4% irredeemable (as they were collectively known) - I have a feeling that it used to be known as 'Never/Nevers'. Many issues had all sorts of daft names - 'Eeyores', 'Winnies', 'Greeks', and 'Little Greeks' are the ones I remember.
(I used to trade Gilts for a living)
total desperation, what planet is this man on ?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/14/britain-richest-country-world-george-osborne-fiscal-policy
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30816523
Another fine principled, patriotic chap, has seen the error of his ways, and has defected from Labour to the Tories.
Saying he can't : Cameron is “Strongest and Best Leader...could no longer defend Ed Miliband and Ed Balls."
http://www.ilfordrecorder.co.uk/news/former_ilford_north_labour_chairman_defects_to_conservatives_at_height_of_wes_streeting_campaign_1_3914863
Dieudonné to be put on trial for "condoning terrorism"...
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-01-14/dieudonne-to-stand-trial-for-condoning-terrorism/
BBC - Comedian Al Murray will stand in his guise as The Pub Landlord against UKIP leader Nigel Farage at the general election. - Mr Murray, whose character is based around a love for all things British, has formed the Free United Kingdom Party.
FUKP..! -but for the BBC reporting this, I’d have thought it one of PB’s wilder conspiracy theories. – or a joke.
At the moment I'm inclined to still vote Conservative at the General Election, to get rid of Balls, but shun them at others.
I think the numbers last week were 49% said they were effective, and something like 36 or 38% said they were ineffective.
Give me a few mins to dig out the full figures/link to the data tables.
How effective do you think the current coalition government is at dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism?
Total effective 49%
Total ineffective 37%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdfhttps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdf
Anyway, even if others support the government's response, that's even MORE of a reason for those that understand the issues more deeply to negate the effect and reduce the incentive for governments to do such thing.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdf
There was some polling a few months ago, saying they wanted Theresa May/The Government to go further in restricting our civil liberties.
I'll dig that out as well.
Edited extra bit: Flavius, not Nicephorus, it seems.
(although you and Socrates probably think I'm a leftie...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11344083/Jim-Murphy-risks-looking-like-a-loser-by-running-away-from-a-winning-effort.html
Theresa May has gone too far with anti-terrorism powers, infringing people's human rights and giving the police and the security services too many powers to snoop into ordinary people's lives
Gone too far 18%
Not gone far enough 37%
Balance about right 19%
DK 27%
Requiring communications companies to store details identifing who was using a computer or mobile at a given time and make it available to the security services?
Good idea 51%
Unnecessary overreaction 27%
Not sure 22%
Requiring internet and social media companies to monitor content on their sites and inform the authorities of any communications that could relate to terrorist activity?
Good idea 67%
Unnecessary overreaction 18%
Not sure 16%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf
I only real rate S&Ps as a rating agency; they have such a cool name.
But they've beaten me to it.