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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Al Murray’s South Thanet bid looks like an effort to stop N

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  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Here's the data tables, fieldwork was last Wednesday/Thursday.

    How effective do you think the current coalition government is at dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism?


    Total effective 49%

    Total ineffective 37%

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdfhttps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdf

    Since when did 49% constitute a "majority"?

    Anyway, even if others support the government's response, that's even MORE of a reason for those that understand the issues more deeply to negate the effect and reduce the incentive for governments to do such thing.
    Did I use the word majority?
    No, but you used the word "most", which means the same thing.
  • Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Here's the data tables, fieldwork was last Wednesday/Thursday.

    How effective do you think the current coalition government is at dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism?


    Total effective 49%

    Total ineffective 37%

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdfhttps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdf

    Since when did 49% constitute a "majority"?

    Anyway, even if others support the government's response, that's even MORE of a reason for those that understand the issues more deeply to negate the effect and reduce the incentive for governments to do such thing.
    Did I use the word majority?
    No, but you used the word "most", which means the same thing.
    No it does not.

    Or some of are screwed on say the MOST Seats market.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    antifrank said:

    Charles said:

    The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.

    About as significant as AIFE then?
    What odds will someone give me that after the election at least one kipper argues that by adding Al Murray's votes to Nigel Farage's votes, UKIP were cheated out of an MP in South Thanet?
    I was going to ask for odds on a Kipper saying Murray standing is great news for UKIP/Farage.

    But they've beaten me to it.
    Has anyone said it's great? It's probably a very slight help to Farage, by reducing his opponents' numbers by a couple hundred votes.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    edited January 2015
    This just helps to turn the seat in to a referendum on Farage. And there'll be 1 Farage on the ballot paper, vs 4 or 5 'not Farage's
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,894
    Neil Only will on mainstream TV for the past 10 to 15 years, the 20- 35 age group will certainly have heard of him
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    edited January 2015
    Neil said:

    This is the polling from November, there's quite a few questions on dealing with terrorism, here's a few of the selected "highlights"

    Theresa May has gone too far with anti-terrorism powers, infringing people's human rights and giving the police and the security services too many powers to snoop into ordinary people's lives

    Gone too far 18%
    Not gone far enough 37%
    Balance about right 19%
    DK 27%

    Requiring communications companies to store details identifing who was using a computer or mobile at a given time and make it available to the security services?

    Good idea 51%
    Unnecessary overreaction 27%
    Not sure 22%

    Requiring internet and social media companies to monitor content on their sites and inform the authorities of any communications that could relate to terrorist activity?

    Good idea 67%
    Unnecessary overreaction 18%
    Not sure 16%

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf

    It's a bit like ID cards though, isnt it. Initial support but (1) when people learn more about it they may change their minds and (2) even if most are in favour those who are against are really against.

    Err - no it's nothing like that. It's more like you're rubbishing a poll you don't like.
  • antifrank said:

    Charles said:

    The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.

    About as significant as AIFE then?
    What odds will someone give me that after the election at least one kipper argues that by adding Al Murray's votes to Nigel Farage's votes, UKIP were cheated out of an MP in South Thanet?
    I was going to ask for odds on a Kipper saying Murray standing is great news for UKIP/Farage.

    But they've beaten me to it.
    Bad news for Farage but good news for UKIP?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    felix said:

    Neil said:

    This is the polling from November, there's quite a few questions on dealing with terrorism, here's a few of the selected "highlights"

    Theresa May has gone too far with anti-terrorism powers, infringing people's human rights and giving the police and the security services too many powers to snoop into ordinary people's lives

    Gone too far 18%
    Not gone far enough 37%
    Balance about right 19%
    DK 27%

    Requiring communications companies to store details identifing who was using a computer or mobile at a given time and make it available to the security services?

    Good idea 51%
    Unnecessary overreaction 27%
    Not sure 22%

    Requiring internet and social media companies to monitor content on their sites and inform the authorities of any communications that could relate to terrorist activity?

    Good idea 67%
    Unnecessary overreaction 18%
    Not sure 16%

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf

    It's a bit like ID cards though, isnt it. Initial support but (1) when people learn more about it they may change their minds and (2) even if most are in favour those who are against are really against.

    Err - no it's nothing like that.
    We'll have to agree to disagree.
  • Neil said:

    This is the polling from November, there's quite a few questions on dealing with terrorism, here's a few of the selected "highlights"

    Theresa May has gone too far with anti-terrorism powers, infringing people's human rights and giving the police and the security services too many powers to snoop into ordinary people's lives

    Gone too far 18%
    Not gone far enough 37%
    Balance about right 19%
    DK 27%

    Requiring communications companies to store details identifing who was using a computer or mobile at a given time and make it available to the security services?

    Good idea 51%
    Unnecessary overreaction 27%
    Not sure 22%

    Requiring internet and social media companies to monitor content on their sites and inform the authorities of any communications that could relate to terrorist activity?

    Good idea 67%
    Unnecessary overreaction 18%
    Not sure 16%

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf

    It's a bit like ID cards though, isnt it. Initial support but (1) when people learn more about it they may change their minds and (2) even if most are in favour those who are against are really against.

    Neil said:

    This is the polling from November, there's quite a few questions on dealing with terrorism, here's a few of the selected "highlights"

    Theresa May has gone too far with anti-terrorism powers, infringing people's human rights and giving the police and the security services too many powers to snoop into ordinary people's lives

    Gone too far 18%
    Not gone far enough 37%
    Balance about right 19%
    DK 27%

    Requiring communications companies to store details identifing who was using a computer or mobile at a given time and make it available to the security services?

    Good idea 51%
    Unnecessary overreaction 27%
    Not sure 22%

    Requiring internet and social media companies to monitor content on their sites and inform the authorities of any communications that could relate to terrorist activity?

    Good idea 67%
    Unnecessary overreaction 18%
    Not sure 16%

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf

    It's a bit like ID cards though, isnt it. Initial support but (1) when people learn more about it they may change their minds and (2) even if most are in favour those who are against are really against.

    Also people support it when they don't think it will apply to them. As soon as they realise they are going to be monitored as well their attitude tends to change.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    edited January 2015

    Also people support it when they don't think it will apply to them. As soon as they realise they are going to be monitored as well their attitude tends to change.


    Yes there's that, another thing that turns people against such proposals, is a major data breach.

    I know correlation doesn't imply causation, but I remember support for ID cards plummeted a few weeks after HMRC lost computer disks containing confidential details of 25 million child benefit recipients.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    What the hell is that Spurs team - 7 defenders / defensive midfielders. Playing for pens?

    sounds like a 2-3-5 format to me.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited January 2015
    Watching C4 and they are going on about these debates.

    Can I ask, why is Farage assumed to be allowed to participate?

    He isn't elected to Westminster. Carswell, Reckless, maybe.

    But Farage?

    Might as well have Myleene Klass and Russell Brand.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,962
    edited January 2015
    felix said:

    Neil said:

    This is the polling from November, there's quite a few questions on dealing with terrorism, here's a few of the selected "highlights"

    Theresa May has gone too far with anti-terrorism powers, infringing people's human rights and giving the police and the security services too many powers to snoop into ordinary people's lives

    Gone too far 18%
    Not gone far enough 37%
    Balance about right 19%
    DK 27%

    Requiring communications companies to store details identifing who was using a computer or mobile at a given time and make it available to the security services?

    Good idea 51%
    Unnecessary overreaction 27%
    Not sure 22%

    Requiring internet and social media companies to monitor content on their sites and inform the authorities of any communications that could relate to terrorist activity?

    Good idea 67%
    Unnecessary overreaction 18%
    Not sure 16%

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf

    It's a bit like ID cards though, isnt it. Initial support but (1) when people learn more about it they may change their minds and (2) even if most are in favour those who are against are really against.

    Err - no it's nothing like that. It's more like you're rubbishing a poll you don't like.
    He isn't, he is just looking at past polling trends, and saying it probably applies here.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Socrates said:

    antifrank said:

    Charles said:

    The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.

    About as significant as AIFE then?
    What odds will someone give me that after the election at least one kipper argues that by adding Al Murray's votes to Nigel Farage's votes, UKIP were cheated out of an MP in South Thanet?
    I was going to ask for odds on a Kipper saying Murray standing is great news for UKIP/Farage.

    But they've beaten me to it.
    Has anyone said it's great? It's probably a very slight help to Farage, by reducing his opponents' numbers by a couple hundred votes.
    UKIP were only 600 votes away from winning Heywood and Middleton. Although I would like to think Farage is capable of winning by a large majority than a couple of hundreds votes.

    Al Murray to lose his deposit at WH looks like a good bet.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Will the fan hit the shit, or the shit hit the fan?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-30819561

    Didn't someone suggest that there was nothing to see re vote rigging in Tower Hamlets?
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    chestnut said:

    Watching C4 and they are going on about these debates.

    Can I ask, why is Farage assumed to be allowed to participate?

    He isn't elected to Westminster. Carswell, Reckless, maybe.

    But Farage?

    Might as well have Myleene Klass and Russell Brand.

    Ofcom refutes Farage claim that Ofcom regard ukip as a major party.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Who is Al Murray?
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    dr_spyn said:

    Will the fan hit the shit, or the shit hit the fan?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-30819561

    Didn't someone suggest that there was nothing to see re vote rigging in Tower Hamlets?

    Nothing will come of it. This has been going on for years without anything being done. If Lutfur Rahman is forced to go someone else will fill the void.

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Speedy said:

    Who is Al Murray?

    A tennis player.

  • steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Sky News presenter just apologised for any offence after a French lady showed a copy of today's Charlie Hebdo front page. A nauseating spectacle and Sky should be ashamed of themselves.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    dr_spyn said:

    Speedy said:

    Who is Al Murray?

    A tennis player.

    LOL
  • ashleyashley Posts: 19
    Interesting looking documentary about the Far Right on Channel 4 tonight, 10pm

    Angry, White and Proud.

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    felix said:

    Neil said:

    This is the polling from November, there's quite a few questions on dealing with terrorism, here's a few of the selected "highlights"

    Theresa May has gone too far with anti-terrorism powers, infringing people's human rights and giving the police and the security services too many powers to snoop into ordinary people's lives

    Gone too far 18%
    Not gone far enough 37%
    Balance about right 19%
    DK 27%

    Requiring communications companies to store details identifing who was using a computer or mobile at a given time and make it available to the security services?

    Good idea 51%
    Unnecessary overreaction 27%
    Not sure 22%

    Requiring internet and social media companies to monitor content on their sites and inform the authorities of any communications that could relate to terrorist activity?

    Good idea 67%
    Unnecessary overreaction 18%
    Not sure 16%

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf

    It's a bit like ID cards though, isnt it. Initial support but (1) when people learn more about it they may change their minds and (2) even if most are in favour those who are against are really against.

    Err - no it's nothing like that. It's more like you're rubbishing a poll you don't like.
    He isn't, he is just looking at past polling trends, and saying it probably applies here.
    There's nothing worse than the patronising chatterers when they're telling people how they should think on these matters. Fortunately they're the first in the gulags come the revolution.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    Sky News presenter just apologised for any offence after a French lady showed a copy of today's Charlie Hebdo front page. A nauseating spectacle and Sky should be ashamed of themselves.

    Like!
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Talk about scraping the barrel.

    BNP - collapsed. EDL - atomised. Britain First - a miniscule group of comedy chimps.

    For some people its a case of 'there's islamic terrorism ergo there must be a thriving far right'

    forget it.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited January 2015
    Charles said:

    What the hell is that Spurs team - 7 defenders / defensive midfielders. Playing for pens?

    sounds like a 2-3-5 format to me.
    OK - so the 2 are Bobby Sol and barndoor Townsend...

    The 3 are Paulinho cos he can't defend and the attacking threat that is Capoue and Stambouli...

    then 2 left backs and 3 CBs.

    I've just doubled my bet/hedge on Bad Al and OGH's reserves.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Conservatives select their candidates for the Liverpool constituencies:

    http://www.liverpoolconservatives.org/news/liverpool-conservatives-select-parliamentary-candidates
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    In 2010 the BNP, Eng Dems and NF put up 462 candidates between them (which was 11% of the total) polling a combined 639,931 votes.

    So far the total for these parties for the 2015 election is one: an Eng Dem candidate in Berwick-upon-Tweed.
    taffys said:

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Talk about scraping the barrel.

    BNP - collapsed. EDL - atomised. Britain First - a miniscule group of comedy chimps.

    For some people its a case of 'there's islamic terrorism ergo there must be a thriving far right'

    forget it.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    felix said:

    Sky News presenter just apologised for any offence after a French lady showed a copy of today's Charlie Hebdo front page. A nauseating spectacle and Sky should be ashamed of themselves.

    Like!
    Quite. Perhaps Sky could read this - http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/fighting_words/2006/02/cartoon_debate.html

    Written when the last babyish cartoon-fuelled tantrums blew up.

  • ashleyashley Posts: 19
    taffys said:

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Talk about scraping the barrel.

    BNP - collapsed. EDL - atomised. Britain First - a miniscule group of comedy chimps.

    For some people its a case of 'there's islamic terrorism ergo there must be a thriving far right'

    forget it.

    The ultra-Right are alive and well in the form of UKIP, of course.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    UKIP aren't far right, so they probably won't feature.
    ashley said:

    Interesting looking documentary about the Far Right on Channel 4 tonight, 10pm

    Angry, White and Proud.

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    ashley said:

    Interesting looking documentary about the Far Right on Channel 4 tonight, 10pm

    Angry, White and Proud.

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    It's a very typical and predictable response by Channel 4 to last week's events. Anything but talk about the real murderers.
  • Get the feck in.

    Burnley lead at Spurs.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,591
    AndyJS said:

    UKIP aren't far right, so they probably won't feature.

    ashley said:

    Interesting looking documentary about the Far Right on Channel 4 tonight, 10pm

    Angry, White and Proud.

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Hasn't stopped a snide repeat of Steph & Dom meet Nige immediately afterwards.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    The ultra-Right are alive and well in the form of UKIP, of course.

    Yeh, and as they got millions of votes in the euros, the blackshirts are goose stepping across Britain.

    When will people realise that, for those who would defeat Farage, calling him a fascist only makes things infinitely worse.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    Charles said:

    The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.

    About as significant as AIFE then?
    What odds will someone give me that after the election at least one kipper argues that by adding Al Murray's votes to Nigel Farage's votes, UKIP were cheated out of an MP in South Thanet?
    The only reason I ever mentioned that was because Mike wrote a thread suggesting AIFE would take about 1.5-2% of the UKIP vote by people mistaking them for UKIP, then when they did saying "as I expected" then saying UKIP underperformed the polls by a per cent or two and people saying "nothing to do with AIFE"

    It either was or it wasn't, couldn't be both

    But I don't think we can blame Al Murray for Farage not winning.. I expect him to win by much further than the Al Murray vote
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    burnley score again.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    dr_spyn said:

    burnley score again.

    Looks like Leicester will be heading north in 10 days. Pretty supine of Spurs.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    ashley said:

    taffys said:

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Talk about scraping the barrel.

    BNP - collapsed. EDL - atomised. Britain First - a miniscule group of comedy chimps.

    For some people its a case of 'there's islamic terrorism ergo there must be a thriving far right'

    forget it.

    The ultra-Right are alive and well in the form of UKIP, of course.
    The British public consider the Conservatives further right than UKIP. And they're the ones that support a preference for White Europeans in immigration policy...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    WTF has his school and university got to do with his standing as an MP.


    Pathetic class war snobbery - a horrid trait of the hard left.

    Shame.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    chestnut said:

    Watching C4 and they are going on about these debates.

    Can I ask, why is Farage assumed to be allowed to participate?

    He isn't elected to Westminster. Carswell, Reckless, maybe.

    But Farage?

    Might as well have Myleene Klass and Russell Brand.

    Because its the leaders debate and he is the leader?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Does anyone know where I can buy the latest edition of Charlie Hebdo in the UK?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    1-2. THFC v BFC
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    BBC saying "France is asking how many Kouachis are there? Islamists under cover of a perfectly normal life"

    Sounds like a fifth column to me.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,701
    perdix said:
    The Swiss showing how you do a proper negotiation with the EU on immigration.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited January 2015
    A Cheltenham newsagents was stocking them but they've sold out:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11342699/Newsagent-defies-threats-by-stocking-Charlie-Hebdo-magazine.html
    Socrates said:

    Does anyone know where I can buy the latest edition of Charlie Hebdo in the UK?

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    AndyJS said:

    Conservatives select their candidates for the Liverpool constituencies:

    http://www.liverpoolconservatives.org/news/liverpool-conservatives-select-parliamentary-candidates

    cannon fodder...
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    perdix said:
    The Swiss showing how you do a proper negotiation with the EU on immigration.
    They havent gotten anything yet.
  • Socrates said:

    isam said:

    Thought Mike might have written about UKIP selecting an ex Labour candidate, who used to be Lord Mayor of London in the target seat of S Basildon and E Thurrock which has got so much publicity recently

    Given that he has backed the 10/3 on the back of it etc etc #politicalbetting

    He's one of the people that lives in an area of low migration and can be taken as evidence that UKIP people have never witnessed the effects of mass migration.
    You don't know Bedford very well do you?

    "Bedford Borough has an ethnically diverse population. The 2011 Census indicates that 28.5% of the population was from minority ethnic groups (BME), compared to 20.2% nationally. The BME population increased by 16,400 between 2001 and 2011, whereas the ‘White British’ population declined by 6,900.

    The BME population is extremely diverse and the Borough ranks in the Top 100 of 348 English local authorities on the proportion of its population in 15 of the 17 minority ethnic groupings – the ‘White Other’ (e.g. Italian and Polish), Indian, Bangladeshi and Black Caribbean populations all exceed the England average.

    The BME population is concentrated in the urban area of Bedford and Kempston, with particularly large BME communities in Queens Park (75%) and Cauldwell (59%) wards. The BME level is higher among younger age groups and a majority (51%) of the 0-4 population in Bedford and Kempston is non-‘White British’."


    http://www.bedford.gov.uk/council_and_democracy/statistics_and_census/borough_statistical_profile.aspx (Demography - Updated December 2014)

    OGH can fairly be said to have his money where his mouth is on this one. Bear in mind when looking at those figures that Bedford Borough also contains the whole of Rural north Bedfordshire which is almost 100% white British.

    Looking at the figures Bedfordshire appears to be rapidly segregating into two urban areas (Bedford; pop 100,000 (including Kemspton) and Luton; pop 200,000) which whites are rapidly leaving and a large rural area with an increasing population (320,000) that is almost 100% white. The only place I've seen the sort of segregation that is emerging in Bedfordshire before is South Africa. If this is reflective of the rest of the country its not good news.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Millwall not doing well at Bradford, 3-0 down.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,831

    The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.

    But as far as I can see the welcome amusement belongs to this evening only. It's an amusing amusing conceit that Al Murray pub landlord is standing against Nigel Farage. That *is* the punchline -there it begins and there it ends. What's he actually going to do -knock on doors? Do his little routine at the candidates debate? Seems like an annoying running gag if it's going to be going on for 3 months.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642

    The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.

    But as far as I can see the welcome amusement belongs to this evening only. It's an amusing amusing conceit that Al Murray pub landlord is standing against Nigel Farage. That *is* the punchline -there it begins and there it ends. What's he actually going to do -knock on doors? Do his little routine at the candidates debate? Seems like an annoying running gag if it's going to be going on for 3 months.
    Question is, if the Loonies have a candidate who will get more votes?

  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Ishmael_X said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

    In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !

    They have to redeem at par, unless they are really bored of having an AAA credit rating

    And surely equally possibly Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!, depending what you paid for it?

    What triple A rating? Curious, did we get it back again and when?
    http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/sovereigns/ratings-list/en/us?sectorName=null&subSectorCode=39&filter=U

    I only real rate S&Ps as a rating agency; they have such a cool name.
    Oh, so Fitch plus Moody are irrelevant? 2 out of three say No Way! Isn't that 66% to 33%?

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/04/19/uk-fitch-downgrade-idUKBRE93I0SJ20130419

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21554311

    And, wasn't S&P's record rather badly dented over Enron?
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    RodCrosby said:

    AndyJS said:

    Conservatives select their candidates for the Liverpool constituencies:

    http://www.liverpoolconservatives.org/news/liverpool-conservatives-select-parliamentary-candidates

    cannon fodder...
    Every decent candidate should start in a no-hope seat.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    My lack of understanding of statistical analysis has enabled me to make dough on both first goalscorers tonight using the program I wrote for analysing goalscoring statistics

    Good to see Mike taking 10/3 about UKIP in South Basildon earlier

    I took 20/1 in June after running the recent election performances through the program I wrote to analyse election data

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    ashley said:

    taffys said:

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Talk about scraping the barrel.

    BNP - collapsed. EDL - atomised. Britain First - a miniscule group of comedy chimps.

    For some people its a case of 'there's islamic terrorism ergo there must be a thriving far right'

    forget it.

    The ultra-Right are alive and well in the form of UKIP, of course.
    And yet I keep being told how they keep on going Left thesedays.
  • ashley said:

    taffys said:

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Talk about scraping the barrel.

    BNP - collapsed. EDL - atomised. Britain First - a miniscule group of comedy chimps.

    For some people its a case of 'there's islamic terrorism ergo there must be a thriving far right'

    forget it.

    The ultra-Right are alive and well in the form of UKIP, of course.
    Of course they are.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    isam said:



    Because its the leaders debate and he is the leader?

    Not in Westminster, he isn't.

    Bit farcical really.

    Greens similar I suppose with Sheila.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    ashley said:

    taffys said:

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Talk about scraping the barrel.

    BNP - collapsed. EDL - atomised. Britain First - a miniscule group of comedy chimps.

    For some people its a case of 'there's islamic terrorism ergo there must be a thriving far right'

    forget it.

    The ultra-Right are alive and well in the form of UKIP, of course.
    Of course they are.
    You have to wonder.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2909185/Mass-immigration-led-Muslim-ghettos-Britain-run-Sharia-Law-says-Farage-Ukip-leader-claims-authorities-turn-blind-eye-TV-interview.html
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Edin_Rokz said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

    In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !

    They have to redeem at par, unless they are really bored of having an AAA credit rating

    And surely equally possibly Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!, depending what you paid for it?

    What triple A rating? Curious, did we get it back again and when?
    http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/sovereigns/ratings-list/en/us?sectorName=null&subSectorCode=39&filter=U

    I only real rate S&Ps as a rating agency; they have such a cool name.
    Oh, so Fitch plus Moody are irrelevant? 2 out of three say No Way! Isn't that 66% to 33%?

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/04/19/uk-fitch-downgrade-idUKBRE93I0SJ20130419

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21554311

    And, wasn't S&P's record rather badly dented over Enron?
    Chill. Fitch plus Moody are the dog's left and right bollocks respectively, and S&P suck more than a Dyson administering a blowjob.

    Happy now?

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    chestnut said:

    isam said:



    Because its the leaders debate and he is the leader?

    Not in Westminster, he isn't.

    Bit farcical really.

    Greens similar I suppose with Sheila.
    Carswell should simply tell Farage that he's representing them.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited January 2015
    chestnut said:

    isam said:



    Because its the leaders debate and he is the leader?

    Not in Westminster, he isn't.

    Bit farcical really.

    Greens similar I suppose with Sheila.
    He is the leader of UKIP wherever he goes. Obviously the same goes for the Greens as you say.

    So what though?
  • ashley said:

    taffys said:

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Talk about scraping the barrel.

    BNP - collapsed. EDL - atomised. Britain First - a miniscule group of comedy chimps.

    For some people its a case of 'there's islamic terrorism ergo there must be a thriving far right'

    forget it.

    The ultra-Right are alive and well in the form of UKIP, of course.
    Of course they are.
    You have to wonder.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2909185/Mass-immigration-led-Muslim-ghettos-Britain-run-Sharia-Law-says-Farage-Ukip-leader-claims-authorities-turn-blind-eye-TV-interview.html
    Hard to disagree with anything he says there.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LadPolitics: We've already taken more money on @almurray at 66/1 to win Thanet South than we have on Labour (7/1), who held the seat until 2010. #Cheers.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    I assume we will shortly get another Ashcroft poll on Thanet South.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited January 2015
    chestnut said:

    isam said:



    Because its the leaders debate and he is the leader?

    Not in Westminster, he isn't.

    Bit farcical really.

    I really don't see how. It's a debate between representatives of the various parties, none of whom are certain to be returned as MPs or elected as MPs for the first time (even if safe seats means at least two are almost certain to be returned). If this is a 'Parliamentary Leaders' debate specifically, then all the parties need to do is send the person who they intend to lead their party in the parliament that is to be elected. Whether they end up doing so seems fairly irrelevant, as one of Cameron or Miliband will stand down as Leader when they lose anyway, and even if the LDs hold up reasonably Clegg will probably go as well not long after to signal some sort identity change for the party.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    ashley said:

    taffys said:

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Talk about scraping the barrel.

    BNP - collapsed. EDL - atomised. Britain First - a miniscule group of comedy chimps.

    For some people its a case of 'there's islamic terrorism ergo there must be a thriving far right'

    forget it.

    The ultra-Right are alive and well in the form of UKIP, of course.
    Of course they are.
    You have to wonder.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2909185/Mass-immigration-led-Muslim-ghettos-Britain-run-Sharia-Law-says-Farage-Ukip-leader-claims-authorities-turn-blind-eye-TV-interview.html
    What you should wonder about is why virtually every synagogue and Jewish school in the UK needs to put security guards outside. But you don't seem to give a damn about prejudice against Jews. The only prejudice you care about is that you can weaponise against UKIP.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    kle4 said:

    chestnut said:

    isam said:



    Because its the leaders debate and he is the leader?

    Not in Westminster, he isn't.

    Bit farcical really.

    I really don't see how.
    It goes like this:

    (1) Have a predisposition to dislike UKIP.
    (2) Declare everything they say or do to be a bit farcical.
    (3) Share your fascinating insights with everyone else on pbc.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    polling data...

    @FUKPnews: First official FUKP results in from @Kent_Online. http://t.co/wxtxhtQuHt
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited January 2015
    Socrates said:

    ashley said:

    taffys said:

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Talk about scraping the barrel.

    BNP - collapsed. EDL - atomised. Britain First - a miniscule group of comedy chimps.

    For some people its a case of 'there's islamic terrorism ergo there must be a thriving far right'

    forget it.

    The ultra-Right are alive and well in the form of UKIP, of course.
    Of course they are.
    You have to wonder.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2909185/Mass-immigration-led-Muslim-ghettos-Britain-run-Sharia-Law-says-Farage-Ukip-leader-claims-authorities-turn-blind-eye-TV-interview.html
    What you should wonder about is why virtually every synagogue and Jewish school in the UK needs to put security guards outside. But you don't seem to give a damn about prejudice against Jews. The only prejudice you care about is that you can weaponise against UKIP.
    Just when you think you've heard it all.

    UKIP are no friend of the Jews. And the security is there to keep out the skinheads and other lunatics that have wished them ill for decades. The people who dislike immigrants and 'strangers' from other religions. You know the ones.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    edited January 2015
    Scott_P said:

    polling data...

    @FUKPnews: First official FUKP results in from @Kent_Online. http://t.co/wxtxhtQuHt

    I wonder what Murray would do if he actually won ? After 5 years of sitting on the back benches and listening to people moaning about their neighbours the joke might wear a bit thin. By-election in 12 months ?
  • Bobby Sol, £30,000,000.00

    David Pleat
    Former Tottenham manager on BBC Radio 5 live Sports Extra

    Tottenham 1-2 Burnley

    "I don't know how Roberto Soldado missed that. It was incredible. What must be going through his head? It was a most wonderful chance. That should have been the goal to make it 2-2 at half-time."


    HITS THE WOODWORK

    Tottenham 1-2 Burnley

    What a miss! Andros Townsend does the damage down the right again for Spurs, he drives on and serves it up on a plate, with garnish, for Roberto Soldado. He's five yards out, an open goal - and he scuffs it against his standing foot and on to the bar!

    How on earth has he missed that? I mean, seriously?

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Awful 9 o'clock news for Cameron.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    ashley said:

    taffys said:

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Talk about scraping the barrel.

    BNP - collapsed. EDL - atomised. Britain First - a miniscule group of comedy chimps.

    For some people its a case of 'there's islamic terrorism ergo there must be a thriving far right'

    forget it.

    The ultra-Right are alive and well in the form of UKIP, of course.
    Of course they are.
    You have to wonder.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2909185/Mass-immigration-led-Muslim-ghettos-Britain-run-Sharia-Law-says-Farage-Ukip-leader-claims-authorities-turn-blind-eye-TV-interview.html
    What you should wonder about is why virtually every synagogue and Jewish school in the UK needs to put security guards outside. But you don't seem to give a damn about prejudice against Jews. The only prejudice you care about is that you can weaponise against UKIP.
    Just when you think you've heard it all.

    UKIP are no friend of the Jews. And the security is there to keep out the skinheads and other lunatics that have wished them ill for decades. The people who dislike immigrants and 'strangers' from other religions. You know the ones.
    Give me a break. You know full well that the danger to Jewish schools and synagogues is overwhelmingly from militant Muslims.
  • Eat British food, stop terrorism

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7VUsY6CcAArnAe.jpg
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578

    Eat British food, stop terrorism

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7VUsY6CcAArnAe.jpg

    I'm not really a fan of Kebabs, but why is Pizza off limits?

    Oh gods, Curry isn't funding terrorism too I hope.

    Either way, I haven't seen it before, but on the basis I might learn something, perhaps I will have to watch the Great British Bake Off now?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited January 2015
    I see the full scale of the ethnic ghetto power structure in Tower Hamlets is coming out:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/14/tower-hamlets-mayor-lutfur-rahman-fraud-claims?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it

    Presumably the government will now call the Guardian out for stirring up tensions. Or is that only the case when Farage mentions it?
  • kle4 said:

    Eat British food, stop terrorism

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7VUsY6CcAArnAe.jpg

    I'm not really a fan of Kebabs, but why is Pizza off limits?

    Oh gods, Curry isn't funding terrorism too I hope.

    Either way, I haven't seen it before, but on the basis I might learn something, perhaps I will have to watch the Great British Bake Off now?
    I kid you not, one stupid Cybernat, gave Mike abuse on twitter, because Mike's a fan of the Great British Bake Off, apparently the Great British Bake Off, was a BBC/Unionist plot to make Britain sound brilliant, and make people vote No.

    BigJohnOwls had a curry the other night, he's supporting terrorism.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Socrates said:

    I see the full scale of the ethnic ghetto power structure in Tower Hamlets is coming out:

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/14/tower-hamlets-mayor-lutfur-rahman-fraud-claims?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=dlvr.it

    "Britain’s first directly elected Muslim mayor"

    Many a true word spoken in jest on PB
  • Now I want a pizza.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    kle4 said:

    Eat British food, stop terrorism

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7VUsY6CcAArnAe.jpg

    I'm not really a fan of Kebabs, but why is Pizza off limits?

    Oh gods, Curry isn't funding terrorism too I hope.

    Either way, I haven't seen it before, but on the basis I might learn something, perhaps I will have to watch the Great British Bake Off now?
    Cash based businesses such as fast food outlets and taxi businesses are ideal to launder money from drugs and other bits of the vice trade.

  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    kle4 said:

    Eat British food, stop terrorism

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7VUsY6CcAArnAe.jpg

    I'm not really a fan of Kebabs, but why is Pizza off limits?

    Oh gods, Curry isn't funding terrorism too I hope.

    Either way, I haven't seen it before, but on the basis I might learn something, perhaps I will have to watch the Great British Bake Off now?
    Cash based businesses such as fast food outlets and taxi businesses are ideal to launder money from drugs and other bits of the vice trade.

    Nail bars, fish and chip shops...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    taffys said:

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Talk about scraping the barrel.

    BNP - collapsed. EDL - atomised. Britain First - a miniscule group of comedy chimps.

    For some people its a case of 'there's islamic terrorism ergo there must be a thriving far right'

    forget it.

    I was encouraged by the New Statemen's figures on party membership someone posted earlier. From memory:

    BNP - 500, BF - 800, EDL - 2,500

    Even adding them together that's less than 10% of UKIP or the Greens.

    Once again, the British public demonstrating excellent judgement
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    breaking: FBI arrest "suspected Islamist" in plot to bomb the Capitol...
    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ohio-man-arrested-alleged-isis-inspired-attack-us/story?id=28227724

    Sounds like another "convert"...
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618

    kle4 said:

    Eat British food, stop terrorism

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B7VUsY6CcAArnAe.jpg

    I'm not really a fan of Kebabs, but why is Pizza off limits?

    Oh gods, Curry isn't funding terrorism too I hope.

    Either way, I haven't seen it before, but on the basis I might learn something, perhaps I will have to watch the Great British Bake Off now?
    Cash based businesses such as fast food outlets and taxi businesses are ideal to launder money from drugs and other bits of the vice trade.

    Nail bars, fish and chip shops...
    And a car wash,just wading through Breaking Bad.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Edin_Rokz said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

    In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !

    They have to redeem at par, unless they are really bored of having an AAA credit rating

    And surely equally possibly Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!, depending what you paid for it?

    What triple A rating? Curious, did we get it back again and when?
    http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/sovereigns/ratings-list/en/us?sectorName=null&subSectorCode=39&filter=U

    I only real rate S&Ps as a rating agency; they have such a cool name.
    Oh, so Fitch plus Moody are irrelevant? 2 out of three say No Way! Isn't that 66% to 33%?

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/04/19/uk-fitch-downgrade-idUKBRE93I0SJ20130419

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21554311

    And, wasn't S&P's record rather badly dented over Enron?
    outside of the financial institutions sector, Fitch is pretty much ignored.

    I prefer S&P myself, but they and Moody's are equally significant
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    New drinking game. Every time Jim Murphy says "as the son of a working class Catholic family" take a drink.

    Haha, only joking, you'd be dead from alcohol poisoning if you did that.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    ashley said:

    taffys said:

    Interesting to see how much UKIP feature.

    Talk about scraping the barrel.

    BNP - collapsed. EDL - atomised. Britain First - a miniscule group of comedy chimps.

    For some people its a case of 'there's islamic terrorism ergo there must be a thriving far right'

    forget it.

    The ultra-Right are alive and well in the form of UKIP, of course.
    Of course they are.
    You have to wonder.
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2909185/Mass-immigration-led-Muslim-ghettos-Britain-run-Sharia-Law-says-Farage-Ukip-leader-claims-authorities-turn-blind-eye-TV-interview.html
    What you should wonder about is why virtually every synagogue and Jewish school in the UK needs to put security guards outside. But you don't seem to give a damn about prejudice against Jews. The only prejudice you care about is that you can weaponise against UKIP.
    Just when you think you've heard it all.

    UKIP are no friend of the Jews. And the security is there to keep out the skinheads and other lunatics that have wished them ill for decades. The people who dislike immigrants and 'strangers' from other religions. You know the ones.
    Give me a break. You know full well that the danger to Jewish schools and synagogues is overwhelmingly from militant Muslims.
    You severely overestimate him, I think. He genuinely doesn't know things like that.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    New drinking game. Every time Jim Murphy says "as the son of a working class Catholic family" take a drink.

    Haha, only joking, you'd be dead from alcohol poisoning if you did that.

    How about every time John Swinney says "balancing the budget"?

    @markmacmillan12: Under @theSNP teacher numbers are down & local courts are being closed, all at same time as they underspend by £444m. http://t.co/LwPtw3luAl
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,345
    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    New drinking game. Every time Jim Murphy says "as the son of a working class Catholic family" take a drink.

    Haha, only joking, you'd be dead from alcohol poisoning if you did that.

    How about every time John Swinney says "balancing the budget"?

    @markmacmillan12: Under @theSNP teacher numbers are down & local courts are being closed, all at same time as they underspend by £444m. http://t.co/LwPtw3luAl
    I wouldn't use a Labour councillor as a source. I'd want to see an independent source for that!
  • A 'high risk' year for the future of the BBC

    This was, he said, a "high risk" year which could see the BBC "diminished' and "stuck in an analogue cul-de-sac".

    There was a clear message to the BBC's staff - brace yourself - it could well get a bit ugly, the BBC may never be the same again.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-30817270

    I have no idea what the underlying messages in Halls speech and this article are....
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited January 2015
    Sky: 25 year-old man on charge of "racially-motivated" attempted murder after attack in a supermarket in North Wales...
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/mold-tesco-racist-attack-asian-4979810

    http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/mold-tesco-attack-man-held-8449310
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,345
    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    New drinking game. Every time Jim Murphy says "as the son of a working class Catholic family" take a drink.

    Haha, only joking, you'd be dead from alcohol poisoning if you did that.

    How about every time John Swinney says "balancing the budget"?

    @markmacmillan12: Under @theSNP teacher numbers are down & local courts are being closed, all at same time as they underspend by £444m. http://t.co/LwPtw3luAl
    Just checked that. That supposed underspend is to the end of the financial year (this one) and includes contingency. Without contingency it is 130M or so. Not too bad - about 0.33% of the budget. Worth bearing in mind, too, the cuts affect running costs too.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,326
    Socrates said:

    Does anyone know where I can buy the latest edition of Charlie Hebdo in the UK?

    According to tonight's Evening Standard, La Page, a newsagent in South Kensington will be getting copies on Friday and is already taking reservations. So you could try there.

  • Alistair said:

    New drinking game. Every time Jim Murphy says "as the son of a working class Catholic family" take a drink.

    Haha, only joking, you'd be dead from alcohol poisoning if you did that.

    Don't rip the piss out of oor Jim, the PB Tories get very defensive.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    How did we not know about this!!!

    @SkyNews: New ZX Spectrum Goes On Sale In April http://t.co/XWMFNecQs0
This discussion has been closed.