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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Al Murray’s South Thanet bid looks like an effort to stop Nigel Farage

Al Murray, the public school educated Oxford graduate, who has risen to fame as the Pub Landlord, launched his bid to take on Nigel Farage in Thanet South this afternoon.

Read the full story here

Neil

Hard to think of a worse attempt to stop Farage.

JWisemann

More likely to split the anti ukip vote i reckon, letting Farage in. Good.

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

Hard to think of a worse attempt to stop Farage.

Farage in a plane on election day?

Neil

There surely has to be a significant doubt about him even standing.

DecrepitJohnL

DVD not selling well?

TheScreamingEagles

On topic, I don't think it will have any effect.

Leaders get a boost, so that should help Farage, on the flip side, Farage is a piss poor campaigner in FPTP elections.

Last time he finished third in a two horse race behind the founder of the Pro-Euro Tory Party.

Alanbrooke

Neil said:

Hard to think of a worse attempt to stop Farage.

Come off it Neil a public school, Oxbridge bloke is just what politics needs to freshen it up.

Diversity in action.

Tissue_Price

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I don't think it will have any effect.

Leaders get a boost, so that should help Farage, on the flip side, Farage is a piss poor campaigner in FPTP elections.

Last time he finished third in a two horse race behind the founder of the Pro-Euro Tory Party.

Ah, but do non-incumbent leaders necessarily get a boost? 15/8 the Tories looks ok here. I expect all the bookies have laid UKIP.

Socrates

Chris Christie just formed a Political Action Committee.

Christie, Romney, Bush. The establishment vote could get badly split.

Neil

Alanbrooke said:

Neil said:

Hard to think of a worse attempt to stop Farage.

Come off it Neil a public school, Oxbridge bloke is just what politics needs to freshen it up.

Diversity in action.

Ah, but did he study PPE? We must be told!

Socrates

It's not an effort to stop Farage. It's an effort to get media attention and boost his ratings as a comedian. As he's completely entitled to do.

AndyJS

O/T:

The sheer amount of electoral data this guy puts out is amazing:

https://twitter.com/ukelections2015

Casino_Royale

Murray is a leftie, and detests UKIP. Clearly, he wants to stop Farage being elected.

One presumes he thinks he's being clever by standing under "FUKP" - with amusing UKIP'py policies - because he thinks sufficient UKIP sympathisers might fall for it, and be stupid enough to vote for him.

In reality, he'll mop up a few hundred votes of people like him - young, educated and soft-left - who don't like UKIP.

Whether that has any effect on the result remains to be seen. I can't see that constituency voting tactically for the Tories under any scenario, so the bearing on the result should be negligible.

(PS. It could backfire if it's seen to just be mocking UKIP, and just add as a further boon to increasing - albeit, very marginally - UKIP voter turnout)

Paul_Mid_Beds

I would have thought it would split the tory vote if anything by attracting Tory voters who don't like Camoron but can't bring themselves to vote UKIP.

TCPoliticalBetting

Another public school oxbridge wasp that has never had a proper job.

Richard_Nabavi

The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.

TheScreamingEagles

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I don't think it will have any effect.

Leaders get a boost, so that should help Farage, on the flip side, Farage is a piss poor campaigner in FPTP elections.

Last time he finished third in a two horse race behind the founder of the Pro-Euro Tory Party.

Ah, but do non-incumbent leaders necessarily get a boost? 15/8 the Tories looks ok here. I expect all the bookies have laid UKIP.

I'm not sure.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories held on.

I'd be betting heavily on it if Laura Sandys was the Tory candidate.

Very impressive lady.

But the Tory candidate is a fine principled, patriotic lion, who defected from UKIP (in fact he's an ex UKIP Leader)

Carnyx

FPT

Socrates said:

Neil said:

I see hundreds more people joined the Green party today - could be ahead of UKIP already.

Three parties have more of a membership than one party. Big whoop.

Indeed - if they are on exactly the same geographical basis as the big party. Which they are.

RobD

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Another public school oxbridge wasp that has never had a proper job.

Is there a list of approved jobs somewhere? Do all aspiring politicians have to have a career as a dinner lady before entering Parliament?

Tissue_Price

Socrates said:

Chris Christie just formed a Political Action Committee.

Christie, Romney, Bush. The establishment vote could get badly split.

At the end of the day, split votes don't matter all that much under the primary system, but it might give an outsider a chance of winning some of the early states.

If the outsider is ultimately plausible, they can capitalise on that and win the nomination. If they're a nutjob, they'll get found out or the establishment will coalescence around one candidate to stop them.

Morris_Dancer

The risk, from his perspective, is that voters who were wavering about voting tactically for the Conservatives might instead opt for a trip to the pub.

isam

Thought Mike might have written about UKIP selecting an ex Labour candidate, who used to be Lord Mayor of London in the target seat of S Basildon and E Thurrock which has got so much publicity recently

Given that he has backed the 10/3 on the back of it etc etc #politicalbetting

Socrates

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Another public school oxbridge wasp that has never had a proper job.

Is he Protestant?

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

Alanbrooke said:

Neil said:

Hard to think of a worse attempt to stop Farage.

Come off it Neil a public school, Oxbridge bloke is just what politics needs to freshen it up.

Diversity in action.

Ah, but did he study PPE? We must be told!

He did Modern History

Ishmael_X

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Another public school oxbridge wasp that has never had a proper job.

I'd have thought being a stand up comedian was bloody hard work.

What do you do?

Neil

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

Alanbrooke said:

Neil said:

Hard to think of a worse attempt to stop Farage.

Come off it Neil a public school, Oxbridge bloke is just what politics needs to freshen it up.

Diversity in action.

Ah, but did he study PPE? We must be told!

He did Modern History

That should qualify him to be Chancellor in the next Government.

Neil

Ishmael_X said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Another public school oxbridge wasp that has never had a proper job.

I'd have thought being a stand up comedian was bloody hard work.

What do you do?

He's a bloody pub landlord - how much more proper can a job get?

Sunil_Prasannan

Will Murray stand only if the Greens are standing?

RobD

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

Alanbrooke said:

Neil said:

Hard to think of a worse attempt to stop Farage.

Come off it Neil a public school, Oxbridge bloke is just what politics needs to freshen it up.

Diversity in action.

Ah, but did he study PPE? We must be told!

He did Modern History

That should qualify him to be Chancellor in the next Government.

Maybe it was specialising in the history of Labour's ineptitude in handling all things economic?

Casino_Royale

Fascinating that we now assume a public school educated Englishman who's graduated from Oxbridge is a leftie.

Omnium

Novelty candidates trying to stop Farage are surely more likely to help him than otherwise.

It's easy to forget, but the GE is really quite a serious thing, Monster raving loony are bad enough, but combining their credibility with publicity seeking surely isn't something that anyone can approve of. (And by this I mean Murray, for the avoidance of doubt!)

I had to look this buffoon up, and he failed to live up to my low expectations.

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

Alanbrooke said:

Neil said:

Hard to think of a worse attempt to stop Farage.

Come off it Neil a public school, Oxbridge bloke is just what politics needs to freshen it up.

Diversity in action.

Ah, but did he study PPE? We must be told!

He did Modern History

That should qualify him to be Chancellor in the next Government.

People like Al Murray and myself who have excellent knowledge of history will do fantastically well were we elected to Parliament.

Roger

FPT.

It seems the BBC have decided Cameron is the slippery eel and the others can puff their chests out.

OT. Today's Sid and Doris award goes to........

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2908579/Orthodox-Israeli-newspaper-airbrushes-female-world-leaders-JeSuisCharlie-march-photographs.html

RobD

Casino_Royale said:

Fascinating that we now assume a public school educated Englishman who's graduated from Oxbridge is a leftie.

Has anyone suggested that? I must have missed some comments.

SquareRoot

Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !

Sunil_Prasannan

Neil said:

Alanbrooke said:

Neil said:

Hard to think of a worse attempt to stop Farage.

Come off it Neil a public school, Oxbridge bloke is just what politics needs to freshen it up.

Diversity in action.

Ah, but did he study PPE? We must be told!

"If it's too hard, I can't understand it!"

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I don't think it will have any effect.

Leaders get a boost, so that should help Farage, on the flip side, Farage is a piss poor campaigner in FPTP elections.

Last time he finished third in a two horse race behind the founder of the Pro-Euro Tory Party.

Ah, but do non-incumbent leaders necessarily get a boost? 15/8 the Tories looks ok here. I expect all the bookies have laid UKIP.

I'm not sure.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories held on.

I'd be betting heavily on it if Laura Sandys was the Tory candidate.

Very impressive lady.

But the Tory candidate is a fine principled, patriotic lion, who defected from UKIP (in fact he's an ex UKIP Leader)

I have a feeling (just a feeling, backed by the November Ashcroft) that Farage's failure to take South Thanet could be the biggest story of election night.

Socrates

isam said:

Thought Mike might have written about UKIP selecting an ex Labour candidate, who used to be Lord Mayor of London in the target seat of S Basildon and E Thurrock which has got so much publicity recently

Given that he has backed the 10/3 on the back of it etc etc #politicalbetting

He's one of the people that lives in an area of low migration and can be taken as evidence that UKIP people have never witnessed the effects of mass migration.

Casino_Royale

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Fascinating that we now assume a public school educated Englishman who's graduated from Oxbridge is a leftie.

Has anyone suggested that? I must have missed some comments.

Yes. Several.

RobD

Casino_Royale said:

RobD said:

Casino_Royale said:

Fascinating that we now assume a public school educated Englishman who's graduated from Oxbridge is a leftie.

Has anyone suggested that? I must have missed some comments.

Yes. Several.

Sorry, I hadn't read the previous thread!

Pulpstar

Murray to lose his deposit is free money if I'm thinking about this correctly...

I'm on for £50 even if it is 1-3... no way he polls 2,500 votes.

Ishmael_X

SquareRoot said:

Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !

They have to redeem at par, unless they are really bored of having an AAA credit rating

And surely equally possibly Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!, depending what you paid for it?

Pong

Pulpstar said:

Murray to lose his deposit is free money if I'm thinking about this correctly...

I'm on for £50 even if it is 1-3... no way he polls 2,500 votes.

I agree.

He's highly unlikely to make any effort, other than a couple of comedy TV appearances in S. Thanet. That won't win him 2500 votes.

Unless some kind of Beppe Grillo parody FUKP *movement* takes off between now & may, 1/3 is a dead cert.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I don't think it will have any effect.

Leaders get a boost, so that should help Farage, on the flip side, Farage is a piss poor campaigner in FPTP elections.

Last time he finished third in a two horse race behind the founder of the Pro-Euro Tory Party.

Ah, but do non-incumbent leaders necessarily get a boost? 15/8 the Tories looks ok here. I expect all the bookies have laid UKIP.

I'm not sure.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories held on.

I'd be betting heavily on it if Laura Sandys was the Tory candidate.

Very impressive lady.

But the Tory candidate is a fine principled, patriotic lion, who defected from UKIP (in fact he's an ex UKIP Leader)

I have a feeling (just a feeling, backed by the November Ashcroft) that Farage's failure to take South Thanet could be the biggest story of election night.

Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam could be a contender.

The Tories haven't selected their candidate yet.

They are asking around for someone to stand.

The right candidate could topple Nick Clegg.

A charismatic, intelligent chap, with an excellent knowledge of history, music and politics, who lives in Sheffield Hallam could do it.

#JustSaying

TheScreamingEagles

Pulpstar said:

Murray to lose his deposit is free money if I'm thinking about this correctly...

I'm on for £50 even if it is 1-3... no way he polls 2,500 votes.

It'll be all light and no heat/votes, so I agree with Pulpstar.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I don't think it will have any effect.

Leaders get a boost, so that should help Farage, on the flip side, Farage is a piss poor campaigner in FPTP elections.

Last time he finished third in a two horse race behind the founder of the Pro-Euro Tory Party.

Ah, but do non-incumbent leaders necessarily get a boost? 15/8 the Tories looks ok here. I expect all the bookies have laid UKIP.

I'm not sure.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories held on.

I'd be betting heavily on it if Laura Sandys was the Tory candidate.

Very impressive lady.

But the Tory candidate is a fine principled, patriotic lion, who defected from UKIP (in fact he's an ex UKIP Leader)

I have a feeling (just a feeling, backed by the November Ashcroft) that Farage's failure to take South Thanet could be the biggest story of election night.

Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam could be a contender.

The Tories haven't selected their candidate yet.

They are asking around for someone to stand.

The right candidate could topple Nick Clegg.

A charismatic, intelligent chap, with an excellent knowledge of history, music and politics, who lives in Sheffield Hallam could do it.

#JustSaying

Ha. Why not!

Neil

TheScreamingEagles said:

A charismatic, intelligent chap, with an excellent knowledge of history, music and politics, who lives in Sheffield Hallam could do it.

Has Brian Coleman moved to Sheffield?

SquareRoot

Ishmael_X said:

SquareRoot said:

Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !

They have to redeem at par, unless they are really bored of having an AAA credit rating

And surely equally possibly Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!, depending what you paid for it?

paid zippo()legacy) and they didn't need to do anything . they could have left it like every Govt since the war.
Bravo George Osborne.

marktheowl

It won't harm Farage (or help him) in the sense of him taking votes. The only danger I suppose is that it's not ideal for Farage to have a bloke obviously taking the piss out of him during the campaign in that it might not make for the coverage he wants. Then whether it causes him any difficulty rather depends on a) How far Murray is willing to take the joke - will he actively campaign and parody Farage throughout the election, or just fart out the odd Youtube video and get applauded on Twitter? and b) If Murray stirs up a bit of buzz and gets widely covered mocking Farage how do UKIP respond? Getting annoyed at a comedian for taking the mickey isn't a good look and every so often Farage's freedom loving pub bloke persona slips. Mockery may be a far more effective tactic than sanctimony, but unless UKIP cock-up and go off on one it shouldn't be an issue.

Strangely enough possibly the funniest 'FUKP' policy gag is at the expense of Russell 'paradigm' Brand rather than Nige.

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic, I don't think it will have any effect.

Leaders get a boost, so that should help Farage, on the flip side, Farage is a piss poor campaigner in FPTP elections.

Last time he finished third in a two horse race behind the founder of the Pro-Euro Tory Party.

Ah, but do non-incumbent leaders necessarily get a boost? 15/8 the Tories looks ok here. I expect all the bookies have laid UKIP.

I'm not sure.

I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories held on.

I'd be betting heavily on it if Laura Sandys was the Tory candidate.

Very impressive lady.

But the Tory candidate is a fine principled, patriotic lion, who defected from UKIP (in fact he's an ex UKIP Leader)

I have a feeling (just a feeling, backed by the November Ashcroft) that Farage's failure to take South Thanet could be the biggest story of election night.

Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam could be a contender.

The Tories haven't selected their candidate yet.

They are asking around for someone to stand.

The right candidate could topple Nick Clegg.

A charismatic, intelligent chap, with an excellent knowledge of history, music and politics, who lives in Sheffield Hallam could do it.

#JustSaying

"The night is darkest just before the dawn. And I promise you, the dawn is coming."

TheScreamingEagles

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

A charismatic, intelligent chap, with an excellent knowledge of history, music and politics, who lives in Sheffield Hallam could do it.

Has Brian Coleman moved to Sheffield?

If he has, then I'm emigrating.

Socrates

A very serious article on how Cameron's latest proposals could pose a very real threat to the UK's developing IT sector:

http://boingboing.net/2015/01/13/what-david-cameron-just-propos.html

MonikerDiCanio

There are already ample unfunny clowns in politics. Murray's publicity stunt is tiresome and silly.

TCPoliticalBetting

Ishmael_X said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Another public school oxbridge wasp that has never had a proper job.

I'd have thought being a stand up comedian was bloody hard work.

What do you do?

I write Wills and Trusts
I have launched internet access services, written contracts with foreign govts, written speeches for a Lord, passed MOD 05-21, installed equipment, written DBASe repoorts, used Cobol, launched mobile products, run pr events at the sports grounds, presented to 2,000+, managed sales and customer service units, managed projectsof >£50m, represented UK company on foreign tv in 4 countries..... etc etc

and ..... Never been paid by the public sector.

tlg86

marktheowl said:

It won't harm Farage (or help him) in the sense of him taking votes. The only danger I suppose is that it's not ideal for Farage to have a bloke obviously taking the piss out of him during the campaign in that it might not make for the coverage he wants. Then whether it causes him any difficulty rather depends on a) How far Murray is willing to take the joke - will he actively campaign and parody Farage throughout the election, or just fart out the odd Youtube video and get applauded on Twitter? and b) If Murray stirs up a bit of buzz and gets widely covered mocking Farage how do UKIP respond? Getting annoyed at a comedian for taking the mickey isn't a good look and every so often Farage's freedom loving pub bloke persona slips. Mockery may be a far more effective tactic than sanctimony, but unless UKIP cock-up and go off on one it shouldn't be an issue.

Strangely enough possibly the funniest 'FUKP' policy gag is at the expense of Russell 'paradigm' Brand rather than Nige.

Agree with this. The electorate aren't stupid enough to think Murray is genuine and they may not take too kindly to being taken for fools which may in turn make them more determined to vote for Ukip. But as you say what matters more is that Ukip laugh it off. I can't see Murray sticking around in Thanet South too long to be honest.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Socrates, it's a demented, intrusive, unworkable, ill-conceived mountain of nonsense of a policy.

dr_spyn

Did Murray buy his MA or did he actually take a higher degree?

Omnium

SquareRoot said:

Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !

I'm not sure where War Loan was trading, but with a 3.5% coupon it probably wasn't too far off par anyway. In the 80s there were occasional rumours of redemption - back then it traded at around 30% of par, and the rumours were therefore somewhat more exciting.

Aren't they redeeming Consols 2.5% too? There was also (I think) a 4% irredeemable (as they were collectively known) - I have a feeling that it used to be known as 'Never/Nevers'. Many issues had all sorts of daft names - 'Eeyores', 'Winnies', 'Greeks', and 'Little Greeks' are the ones I remember.

(I used to trade Gilts for a living)

ashley

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Ishmael_X said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Another public school oxbridge wasp that has never had a proper job.

I'd have thought being a stand up comedian was bloody hard work.

What do you do?

I write Wills and Trusts
I have launched internet access services, written contracts with foreign govts, written speeches for a Lord, passed MOD 05-21, installed equipment, written DBASe repoorts, used Cobol, launched mobile products, run pr events at the sports grounds, presented to 2,000+, managed sales and customer service units, managed projectsof >£50m, represented UK company on foreign tv in 4 countries..... etc etc

and ..... Never been paid by the public sector.

So you've never had a proper job then?

Ishmael_X

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Ishmael_X said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Another public school oxbridge wasp that has never had a proper job.

I'd have thought being a stand up comedian was bloody hard work.

What do you do?

I write Wills and Trusts
I have launched internet access services, written contracts with foreign govts, written speeches for a Lord, passed MOD 05-21, installed equipment, written DBASe repoorts, used Cobol, launched mobile products, run pr events at the sports grounds, presented to 2,000+, managed sales and customer service units, managed projectsof >£50m, represented UK company on foreign tv in 4 countries..... etc etc

and ..... Never been paid by the public sector.

The "real job" test is "could you explain it to a five year old"? Pub landlord and comedian pass a lot more easily than you do.

Alanbrooke

ROFL

total desperation, what planet is this man on ?


http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/14/britain-richest-country-world-george-osborne-fiscal-policy

dr_spyn

Max Mosley v Google.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30816523

tlg86

Why is there a party political broadcast on ITV? Isn't it a little bit early?

Socrates

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Socrates, it's a demented, intrusive, unworkable, ill-conceived mountain of nonsense of a policy.

The only way politicians will stop doing such things is if they're punished at the polls for doing so.

TheScreamingEagles

Paging Sunil

Another fine principled, patriotic chap, has seen the error of his ways, and has defected from Labour to the Tories.

Saying he can't : Cameron is “Strongest and Best Leader...could no longer defend Ed Miliband and Ed Balls."

http://www.ilfordrecorder.co.uk/news/former_ilford_north_labour_chairman_defects_to_conservatives_at_height_of_wes_streeting_campaign_1_3914863

Sunil_Prasannan

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paging Sunil

Another fine principled, patriotic chap, has seen the error of his ways, and has defected from Labour to the Tories.

Saying he can't : Cameron is “Strongest and Best Leader...could no longer defend Ed Miliband and Ed Balls."

http://www.ilfordrecorder.co.uk/news/former_ilford_north_labour_chairman_defects_to_conservatives_at_height_of_wes_streeting_campaign_1_3914863

Oops, Wes Streeting is one of my twitter followers!

RodCrosby

Vive la liberté !

Dieudonné to be put on trial for "condoning terrorism"...
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-01-14/dieudonne-to-stand-trial-for-condoning-terrorism/

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Socrates, it puts me in an invidious position. I do want to see Balls out of Parliament, but that policy is monumentally stupid (and unacceptable on privacy/data security grounds even if it were technically realistic).

Alanbrooke

RodCrosby said:

Vive la liberté !

Dieudonné to be put on trial for "condoning terrorism"...

quenelles all round please.

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Socrates, it puts me in an invidious position. I do want to see Balls out of Parliament, but that policy is monumentally stupid (and unacceptable on privacy/data security grounds even if it were technically realistic).

You're in a minority, most of the voters, think the government is fairly/very effective in dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Socrates, it puts me in an invidious position. I do want to see Balls out of Parliament, but that policy is monumentally stupid (and unacceptable on privacy/data security grounds even if it were technically realistic).

You're in a minority, most of the voters, think the government is fairly/very effective in dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism

Really ?

SimonStClare

Evening all.

BBC - Comedian Al Murray will stand in his guise as The Pub Landlord against UKIP leader Nigel Farage at the general election. - Mr Murray, whose character is based around a love for all things British, has formed the Free United Kingdom Party.

FUKP..! -but for the BBC reporting this, I’d have thought it one of PB’s wilder conspiracy theories. – or a joke.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, I refer to the future proposal, not the current situation.

At the moment I'm inclined to still vote Conservative at the General Election, to get rid of Balls, but shun them at others.

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Socrates, it puts me in an invidious position. I do want to see Balls out of Parliament, but that policy is monumentally stupid (and unacceptable on privacy/data security grounds even if it were technically realistic).

You're in a minority, most of the voters, think the government is fairly/very effective in dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism

Really ?

Yeah, surprised me as well, this was during/after the shooting at Charlie Hebdo

I think the numbers last week were 49% said they were effective, and something like 36 or 38% said they were ineffective.

Give me a few mins to dig out the full figures/link to the data tables.

TheScreamingEagles

Here's the data tables, fieldwork was last Wednesday/Thursday.

How effective do you think the current coalition government is at dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism?


Total effective 49%

Total ineffective 37%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdfhttps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdf

Alanbrooke

TheScreamingEagles said:

Here's the data tables, fieldwork was last Wednesday/Thursday.

How effective do you think the current coalition government is at dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism?


Total effective 49%

Total ineffective 37%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdfhttps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdf

that link doesn;t work. however taking you at face value that shows the situation has public confidence hence there is no need for more daft laws.

HYUFD

Difficult to predict result, as Murray also hugely popular with young liberals, even if ironically

Socrates

TheScreamingEagles said:

Here's the data tables, fieldwork was last Wednesday/Thursday.

How effective do you think the current coalition government is at dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism?


Total effective 49%

Total ineffective 37%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdfhttps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdf

Since when did 49% constitute a "majority"?

Anyway, even if others support the government's response, that's even MORE of a reason for those that understand the issues more deeply to negate the effect and reduce the incentive for governments to do such thing.

MP_SE

Omnium said:

SquareRoot said:

Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !

I'm not sure where War Loan was trading, but with a 3.5% coupon it probably wasn't too far off par anyway. In the 80s there were occasional rumours of redemption - back then it traded at around 30% of par, and the rumours were therefore somewhat more exciting.

Aren't they redeeming Consols 2.5% too? There was also (I think) a 4% irredeemable (as they were collectively known) - I have a feeling that it used to be known as 'Never/Nevers'. Many issues had all sorts of daft names - 'Eeyores', 'Winnies', 'Greeks', and 'Little Greeks' are the ones I remember.

(I used to trade Gilts for a living)

I believe it was trading at around 85p. I was going to buy some on a dip and now missed the boat. I was hoping for a long term yield of 4-5% from it but will have to look elsewhere now.

Charles

Richard_Nabavi said:

The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.

About as significant as AIFE then?

TheScreamingEagles

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Here's the data tables, fieldwork was last Wednesday/Thursday.

How effective do you think the current coalition government is at dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism?


Total effective 49%

Total ineffective 37%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdfhttps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdf

that link doesn;t work. however taking you at face value that shows the situation has public confidence hence there is no need for more daft laws.

This link should work

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdf

There was some polling a few months ago, saying they wanted Theresa May/The Government to go further in restricting our civil liberties.

I'll dig that out as well.

HYUFD

Previous thread Cameron's view that the debates should include most of the minor parties or none seems to me eminently sensible, otherwise just have a Cameron v Miliband contest, whic Cameron has also said he would do

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Eagles, a majority wanted Maurice to be ousted as well. That didn't mean Nicephorus Phocas being emperor was actually a good idea.

Edited extra bit: Flavius, not Nicephorus, it seems.

Neil

HYUFD said:

Difficult to predict result, as Murray also hugely popular with young liberals, even if ironically

I doubt many youngsters have heard of him. He's been doing the same schtick for, what, 20 or so years now.

TheScreamingEagles

Socrates said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Here's the data tables, fieldwork was last Wednesday/Thursday.

How effective do you think the current coalition government is at dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism?


Total effective 49%

Total ineffective 37%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdfhttps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdf

Since when did 49% constitute a "majority"?

Anyway, even if others support the government's response, that's even MORE of a reason for those that understand the issues more deeply to negate the effect and reduce the incentive for governments to do such thing.

Did I use the word majority?

Charles

Casino_Royale said:

Fascinating that we now assume a public school educated Englishman who's graduated from Oxbridge is a leftie.

*ahem*

(although you and Socrates probably think I'm a leftie... )

Charles

SquareRoot said:

Ishmael_X said:

SquareRoot said:

Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !

They have to redeem at par, unless they are really bored of having an AAA credit rating

And surely equally possibly Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!, depending what you paid for it?

paid zippo()legacy) and they didn't need to do anything . they could have left it like every Govt since the war.
Bravo George Osborne.

paying off our national debt?

calum

Interestingly, Alan Cochrane, one of Jim Murphy's chief cheerleaders in the press isn't impressed :

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11344083/Jim-Murphy-risks-looking-like-a-loser-by-running-away-from-a-winning-effort.html

TheScreamingEagles

This is the polling from November, there's quite a few questions on dealing with terrorism, here's a few of the selected "highlights"

Theresa May has gone too far with anti-terrorism powers, infringing people's human rights and giving the police and the security services too many powers to snoop into ordinary people's lives

Gone too far 18%
Not gone far enough 37%
Balance about right 19%
DK 27%

Requiring communications companies to store details identifing who was using a computer or mobile at a given time and make it available to the security services?

Good idea 51%
Unnecessary overreaction 27%
Not sure 22%

Requiring internet and social media companies to monitor content on their sites and inform the authorities of any communications that could relate to terrorist activity?

Good idea 67%
Unnecessary overreaction 18%
Not sure 16%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf

Edin_Rokz

Ishmael_X said:

SquareRoot said:

Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !

They have to redeem at par, unless they are really bored of having an AAA credit rating

And surely equally possibly Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!, depending what you paid for it?

What triple A rating? Curious, did we get it back again and when?

TheScreamingEagles

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, a majority wanted Maurice to be ousted as well. That didn't mean Nicephorus Phocas being emperor was actually a good idea.

Edited extra bit: Flavius, not Nicephorus, it seems.

The government are giving the voters what they want, the bastards.

AlastairMeeks

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.

About as significant as AIFE then?

What odds will someone give me that after the election at least one kipper argues that by adding Al Murray's votes to Nigel Farage's votes, UKIP were cheated out of an MP in South Thanet?

Neil

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is the polling from November, there's quite a few questions on dealing with terrorism, here's a few of the selected "highlights"

Theresa May has gone too far with anti-terrorism powers, infringing people's human rights and giving the police and the security services too many powers to snoop into ordinary people's lives

Gone too far 18%
Not gone far enough 37%
Balance about right 19%
DK 27%

Requiring communications companies to store details identifing who was using a computer or mobile at a given time and make it available to the security services?

Good idea 51%
Unnecessary overreaction 27%
Not sure 22%

Requiring internet and social media companies to monitor content on their sites and inform the authorities of any communications that could relate to terrorist activity?

Good idea 67%
Unnecessary overreaction 18%
Not sure 16%

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf

It's a bit like ID cards though, isnt it. Initial support but (1) when people learn more about it they may change their minds and (2) even if most are in favour those who are against are really against.

FalseFlag

RodCrosby said:

Vive la liberté !

Dieudonné to be put on trial for "condoning terrorism"...
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-01-14/dieudonne-to-stand-trial-for-condoning-terrorism/

I think this alongside the Hebdo front cover means that the terrorists have achieved all their aims, a phenomenal triumph for extremists on both sides.

Roger

Did the Tory Party get someone off a youth opportunities scheme to shoot their PPB for them?

Ishmael_X

Edin_Rokz said:

Ishmael_X said:

SquareRoot said:

Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !

They have to redeem at par, unless they are really bored of having an AAA credit rating

And surely equally possibly Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!, depending what you paid for it?

What triple A rating? Curious, did we get it back again and when?

http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/sovereigns/ratings-list/en/us?sectorName=null&subSectorCode=39&filter=U

I only real rate S&Ps as a rating agency; they have such a cool name.

Charles

antifrank said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.

About as significant as AIFE then?

What odds will someone give me that after the election at least one kipper argues that by adding Al Murray's votes to Nigel Farage's votes, UKIP were cheated out of an MP in South Thanet?

depends on how you define a 'kipper' but let's say 1-1000 (i.e. you give me £1,000 if you are wrong...)

Scrapheap_as_was

What the hell is that Spurs team - 7 defenders / defensive midfielders. Playing for pens?

TheScreamingEagles

antifrank said:

Charles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.

About as significant as AIFE then?

What odds will someone give me that after the election at least one kipper argues that by adding Al Murray's votes to Nigel Farage's votes, UKIP were cheated out of an MP in South Thanet?

I was going to ask for odds on a Kipper saying Murray standing is great news for UKIP/Farage.

But they've beaten me to it.

Charles

Ishmael_X said:

Edin_Rokz said:

Ishmael_X said:

SquareRoot said:

Yipeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !

They have to redeem at par, unless they are really bored of having an AAA credit rating

And surely equally possibly Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!, depending what you paid for it?

What triple A rating? Curious, did we get it back again and when?

http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/sovereigns/ratings-list/en/us?sectorName=null&subSectorCode=39&filter=U

I only real rate S&Ps as a rating agency; they have such a cool name.

I don't Moody is pretty cool too...