politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Al Murray’s South Thanet bid looks like an effort to stop Nigel Farage
Al Murray, the public school educated Oxford graduate, who has risen to fame as the Pub Landlord, launched his bid to take on Nigel Farage in Thanet South this afternoon.
Murray is a leftie, and detests UKIP. Clearly, he wants to stop Farage being elected.
One presumes he thinks he's being clever by standing under "FUKP" - with amusing UKIP'py policies - because he thinks sufficient UKIP sympathisers might fall for it, and be stupid enough to vote for him.
In reality, he'll mop up a few hundred votes of people like him - young, educated and soft-left - who don't like UKIP.
Whether that has any effect on the result remains to be seen. I can't see that constituency voting tactically for the Tories under any scenario, so the bearing on the result should be negligible.
(PS. It could backfire if it's seen to just be mocking UKIP, and just add as a further boon to increasing - albeit, very marginally - UKIP voter turnout)
I would have thought it would split the tory vote if anything by attracting Tory voters who don't like Camoron but can't bring themselves to vote UKIP.
Chris Christie just formed a Political Action Committee.
Christie, Romney, Bush. The establishment vote could get badly split.
At the end of the day, split votes don't matter all that much under the primary system, but it might give an outsider a chance of winning some of the early states.
If the outsider is ultimately plausible, they can capitalise on that and win the nomination. If they're a nutjob, they'll get found out or the establishment will coalescence around one candidate to stop them.
The risk, from his perspective, is that voters who were wavering about voting tactically for the Conservatives might instead opt for a trip to the pub.
Thought Mike might have written about UKIP selecting an ex Labour candidate, who used to be Lord Mayor of London in the target seat of S Basildon and E Thurrock which has got so much publicity recently
Given that he has backed the 10/3 on the back of it etc etc #politicalbetting
Novelty candidates trying to stop Farage are surely more likely to help him than otherwise.
It's easy to forget, but the GE is really quite a serious thing, Monster raving loony are bad enough, but combining their credibility with publicity seeking surely isn't something that anyone can approve of. (And by this I mean Murray, for the avoidance of doubt!)
I had to look this buffoon up, and he failed to live up to my low expectations.
Leaders get a boost, so that should help Farage, on the flip side, Farage is a piss poor campaigner in FPTP elections.
Last time he finished third in a two horse race behind the founder of the Pro-Euro Tory Party.
Ah, but do non-incumbent leaders necessarily get a boost? 15/8 the Tories looks ok here. I expect all the bookies have laid UKIP.
I'm not sure.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories held on.
I'd be betting heavily on it if Laura Sandys was the Tory candidate.
Very impressive lady.
But the Tory candidate is a fine principled, patriotic lion, who defected from UKIP (in fact he's an ex UKIP Leader)
I have a feeling (just a feeling, backed by the November Ashcroft) that Farage's failure to take South Thanet could be the biggest story of election night.
Thought Mike might have written about UKIP selecting an ex Labour candidate, who used to be Lord Mayor of London in the target seat of S Basildon and E Thurrock which has got so much publicity recently
Given that he has backed the 10/3 on the back of it etc etc #politicalbetting
He's one of the people that lives in an area of low migration and can be taken as evidence that UKIP people have never witnessed the effects of mass migration.
Leaders get a boost, so that should help Farage, on the flip side, Farage is a piss poor campaigner in FPTP elections.
Last time he finished third in a two horse race behind the founder of the Pro-Euro Tory Party.
Ah, but do non-incumbent leaders necessarily get a boost? 15/8 the Tories looks ok here. I expect all the bookies have laid UKIP.
I'm not sure.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories held on.
I'd be betting heavily on it if Laura Sandys was the Tory candidate.
Very impressive lady.
But the Tory candidate is a fine principled, patriotic lion, who defected from UKIP (in fact he's an ex UKIP Leader)
I have a feeling (just a feeling, backed by the November Ashcroft) that Farage's failure to take South Thanet could be the biggest story of election night.
Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam could be a contender.
The Tories haven't selected their candidate yet.
They are asking around for someone to stand.
The right candidate could topple Nick Clegg.
A charismatic, intelligent chap, with an excellent knowledge of history, music and politics, who lives in Sheffield Hallam could do it.
Leaders get a boost, so that should help Farage, on the flip side, Farage is a piss poor campaigner in FPTP elections.
Last time he finished third in a two horse race behind the founder of the Pro-Euro Tory Party.
Ah, but do non-incumbent leaders necessarily get a boost? 15/8 the Tories looks ok here. I expect all the bookies have laid UKIP.
I'm not sure.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories held on.
I'd be betting heavily on it if Laura Sandys was the Tory candidate.
Very impressive lady.
But the Tory candidate is a fine principled, patriotic lion, who defected from UKIP (in fact he's an ex UKIP Leader)
I have a feeling (just a feeling, backed by the November Ashcroft) that Farage's failure to take South Thanet could be the biggest story of election night.
Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam could be a contender.
The Tories haven't selected their candidate yet.
They are asking around for someone to stand.
The right candidate could topple Nick Clegg.
A charismatic, intelligent chap, with an excellent knowledge of history, music and politics, who lives in Sheffield Hallam could do it.
It won't harm Farage (or help him) in the sense of him taking votes. The only danger I suppose is that it's not ideal for Farage to have a bloke obviously taking the piss out of him during the campaign in that it might not make for the coverage he wants. Then whether it causes him any difficulty rather depends on a) How far Murray is willing to take the joke - will he actively campaign and parody Farage throughout the election, or just fart out the odd Youtube video and get applauded on Twitter? and b) If Murray stirs up a bit of buzz and gets widely covered mocking Farage how do UKIP respond? Getting annoyed at a comedian for taking the mickey isn't a good look and every so often Farage's freedom loving pub bloke persona slips. Mockery may be a far more effective tactic than sanctimony, but unless UKIP cock-up and go off on one it shouldn't be an issue.
Strangely enough possibly the funniest 'FUKP' policy gag is at the expense of Russell 'paradigm' Brand rather than Nige.
Leaders get a boost, so that should help Farage, on the flip side, Farage is a piss poor campaigner in FPTP elections.
Last time he finished third in a two horse race behind the founder of the Pro-Euro Tory Party.
Ah, but do non-incumbent leaders necessarily get a boost? 15/8 the Tories looks ok here. I expect all the bookies have laid UKIP.
I'm not sure.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories held on.
I'd be betting heavily on it if Laura Sandys was the Tory candidate.
Very impressive lady.
But the Tory candidate is a fine principled, patriotic lion, who defected from UKIP (in fact he's an ex UKIP Leader)
I have a feeling (just a feeling, backed by the November Ashcroft) that Farage's failure to take South Thanet could be the biggest story of election night.
Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam could be a contender.
The Tories haven't selected their candidate yet.
They are asking around for someone to stand.
The right candidate could topple Nick Clegg.
A charismatic, intelligent chap, with an excellent knowledge of history, music and politics, who lives in Sheffield Hallam could do it.
#JustSaying
"The night is darkest just before the dawn. And I promise you, the dawn is coming."
Another public school oxbridge wasp that has never had a proper job.
I'd have thought being a stand up comedian was bloody hard work.
What do you do?
I write Wills and Trusts I have launched internet access services, written contracts with foreign govts, written speeches for a Lord, passed MOD 05-21, installed equipment, written DBASe repoorts, used Cobol, launched mobile products, run pr events at the sports grounds, presented to 2,000+, managed sales and customer service units, managed projectsof >£50m, represented UK company on foreign tv in 4 countries..... etc etc
It won't harm Farage (or help him) in the sense of him taking votes. The only danger I suppose is that it's not ideal for Farage to have a bloke obviously taking the piss out of him during the campaign in that it might not make for the coverage he wants. Then whether it causes him any difficulty rather depends on a) How far Murray is willing to take the joke - will he actively campaign and parody Farage throughout the election, or just fart out the odd Youtube video and get applauded on Twitter? and b) If Murray stirs up a bit of buzz and gets widely covered mocking Farage how do UKIP respond? Getting annoyed at a comedian for taking the mickey isn't a good look and every so often Farage's freedom loving pub bloke persona slips. Mockery may be a far more effective tactic than sanctimony, but unless UKIP cock-up and go off on one it shouldn't be an issue.
Strangely enough possibly the funniest 'FUKP' policy gag is at the expense of Russell 'paradigm' Brand rather than Nige.
Agree with this. The electorate aren't stupid enough to think Murray is genuine and they may not take too kindly to being taken for fools which may in turn make them more determined to vote for Ukip. But as you say what matters more is that Ukip laugh it off. I can't see Murray sticking around in Thanet South too long to be honest.
In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !
I'm not sure where War Loan was trading, but with a 3.5% coupon it probably wasn't too far off par anyway. In the 80s there were occasional rumours of redemption - back then it traded at around 30% of par, and the rumours were therefore somewhat more exciting.
Aren't they redeeming Consols 2.5% too? There was also (I think) a 4% irredeemable (as they were collectively known) - I have a feeling that it used to be known as 'Never/Nevers'. Many issues had all sorts of daft names - 'Eeyores', 'Winnies', 'Greeks', and 'Little Greeks' are the ones I remember.
Another public school oxbridge wasp that has never had a proper job.
I'd have thought being a stand up comedian was bloody hard work.
What do you do?
I write Wills and Trusts I have launched internet access services, written contracts with foreign govts, written speeches for a Lord, passed MOD 05-21, installed equipment, written DBASe repoorts, used Cobol, launched mobile products, run pr events at the sports grounds, presented to 2,000+, managed sales and customer service units, managed projectsof >£50m, represented UK company on foreign tv in 4 countries..... etc etc
Another public school oxbridge wasp that has never had a proper job.
I'd have thought being a stand up comedian was bloody hard work.
What do you do?
I write Wills and Trusts I have launched internet access services, written contracts with foreign govts, written speeches for a Lord, passed MOD 05-21, installed equipment, written DBASe repoorts, used Cobol, launched mobile products, run pr events at the sports grounds, presented to 2,000+, managed sales and customer service units, managed projectsof >£50m, represented UK company on foreign tv in 4 countries..... etc etc
and ..... Never been paid by the public sector.
The "real job" test is "could you explain it to a five year old"? Pub landlord and comedian pass a lot more easily than you do.
Mr. Socrates, it puts me in an invidious position. I do want to see Balls out of Parliament, but that policy is monumentally stupid (and unacceptable on privacy/data security grounds even if it were technically realistic).
Mr. Socrates, it puts me in an invidious position. I do want to see Balls out of Parliament, but that policy is monumentally stupid (and unacceptable on privacy/data security grounds even if it were technically realistic).
You're in a minority, most of the voters, think the government is fairly/very effective in dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism
Mr. Socrates, it puts me in an invidious position. I do want to see Balls out of Parliament, but that policy is monumentally stupid (and unacceptable on privacy/data security grounds even if it were technically realistic).
You're in a minority, most of the voters, think the government is fairly/very effective in dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism
BBC - Comedian Al Murray will stand in his guise as The Pub Landlord against UKIP leader Nigel Farage at the general election. - Mr Murray, whose character is based around a love for all things British, has formed the Free United Kingdom Party.
FUKP..! -but for the BBC reporting this, I’d have thought it one of PB’s wilder conspiracy theories. – or a joke.
Mr. Socrates, it puts me in an invidious position. I do want to see Balls out of Parliament, but that policy is monumentally stupid (and unacceptable on privacy/data security grounds even if it were technically realistic).
You're in a minority, most of the voters, think the government is fairly/very effective in dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism
Really ?
Yeah, surprised me as well, this was during/after the shooting at Charlie Hebdo
I think the numbers last week were 49% said they were effective, and something like 36 or 38% said they were ineffective.
Give me a few mins to dig out the full figures/link to the data tables.
Anyway, even if others support the government's response, that's even MORE of a reason for those that understand the issues more deeply to negate the effect and reduce the incentive for governments to do such thing.
In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !
I'm not sure where War Loan was trading, but with a 3.5% coupon it probably wasn't too far off par anyway. In the 80s there were occasional rumours of redemption - back then it traded at around 30% of par, and the rumours were therefore somewhat more exciting.
Aren't they redeeming Consols 2.5% too? There was also (I think) a 4% irredeemable (as they were collectively known) - I have a feeling that it used to be known as 'Never/Nevers'. Many issues had all sorts of daft names - 'Eeyores', 'Winnies', 'Greeks', and 'Little Greeks' are the ones I remember.
(I used to trade Gilts for a living)
I believe it was trading at around 85p. I was going to buy some on a dip and now missed the boat. I was hoping for a long term yield of 4-5% from it but will have to look elsewhere now.
Previous thread Cameron's view that the debates should include most of the minor parties or none seems to me eminently sensible, otherwise just have a Cameron v Miliband contest, whic Cameron has also said he would do
Anyway, even if others support the government's response, that's even MORE of a reason for those that understand the issues more deeply to negate the effect and reduce the incentive for governments to do such thing.
This is the polling from November, there's quite a few questions on dealing with terrorism, here's a few of the selected "highlights"
Theresa May has gone too far with anti-terrorism powers, infringing people's human rights and giving the police and the security services too many powers to snoop into ordinary people's lives
Gone too far 18% Not gone far enough 37% Balance about right 19% DK 27%
Requiring communications companies to store details identifing who was using a computer or mobile at a given time and make it available to the security services?
Good idea 51% Unnecessary overreaction 27% Not sure 22%
Requiring internet and social media companies to monitor content on their sites and inform the authorities of any communications that could relate to terrorist activity?
Good idea 67% Unnecessary overreaction 18% Not sure 16%
The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.
About as significant as AIFE then?
What odds will someone give me that after the election at least one kipper argues that by adding Al Murray's votes to Nigel Farage's votes, UKIP were cheated out of an MP in South Thanet?
This is the polling from November, there's quite a few questions on dealing with terrorism, here's a few of the selected "highlights"
Theresa May has gone too far with anti-terrorism powers, infringing people's human rights and giving the police and the security services too many powers to snoop into ordinary people's lives
Gone too far 18% Not gone far enough 37% Balance about right 19% DK 27%
Requiring communications companies to store details identifing who was using a computer or mobile at a given time and make it available to the security services?
Good idea 51% Unnecessary overreaction 27% Not sure 22%
Requiring internet and social media companies to monitor content on their sites and inform the authorities of any communications that could relate to terrorist activity?
Good idea 67% Unnecessary overreaction 18% Not sure 16%
It's a bit like ID cards though, isnt it. Initial support but (1) when people learn more about it they may change their minds and (2) even if most are in favour those who are against are really against.
I think this alongside the Hebdo front cover means that the terrorists have achieved all their aims, a phenomenal triumph for extremists on both sides.
The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.
About as significant as AIFE then?
What odds will someone give me that after the election at least one kipper argues that by adding Al Murray's votes to Nigel Farage's votes, UKIP were cheated out of an MP in South Thanet?
depends on how you define a 'kipper' but let's say 1-1000 (i.e. you give me £1,000 if you are wrong...)
The effect will be zero, other than adding some welcome amusement.
About as significant as AIFE then?
What odds will someone give me that after the election at least one kipper argues that by adding Al Murray's votes to Nigel Farage's votes, UKIP were cheated out of an MP in South Thanet?
I was going to ask for odds on a Kipper saying Murray standing is great news for UKIP/Farage.
Comments
Leaders get a boost, so that should help Farage, on the flip side, Farage is a piss poor campaigner in FPTP elections.
Last time he finished third in a two horse race behind the founder of the Pro-Euro Tory Party.
Diversity in action.
Christie, Romney, Bush. The establishment vote could get badly split.
The sheer amount of electoral data this guy puts out is amazing:
https://twitter.com/ukelections2015
One presumes he thinks he's being clever by standing under "FUKP" - with amusing UKIP'py policies - because he thinks sufficient UKIP sympathisers might fall for it, and be stupid enough to vote for him.
In reality, he'll mop up a few hundred votes of people like him - young, educated and soft-left - who don't like UKIP.
Whether that has any effect on the result remains to be seen. I can't see that constituency voting tactically for the Tories under any scenario, so the bearing on the result should be negligible.
(PS. It could backfire if it's seen to just be mocking UKIP, and just add as a further boon to increasing - albeit, very marginally - UKIP voter turnout)
I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories held on.
I'd be betting heavily on it if Laura Sandys was the Tory candidate.
Very impressive lady.
But the Tory candidate is a fine principled, patriotic lion, who defected from UKIP (in fact he's an ex UKIP Leader)
If the outsider is ultimately plausible, they can capitalise on that and win the nomination. If they're a nutjob, they'll get found out or the establishment will coalescence around one candidate to stop them.
Given that he has backed the 10/3 on the back of it etc etc #politicalbetting
What do you do?
It's easy to forget, but the GE is really quite a serious thing, Monster raving loony are bad enough, but combining their credibility with publicity seeking surely isn't something that anyone can approve of. (And by this I mean Murray, for the avoidance of doubt!)
I had to look this buffoon up, and he failed to live up to my low expectations.
It seems the BBC have decided Cameron is the slippery eel and the others can puff their chests out.
OT. Today's Sid and Doris award goes to........
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2908579/Orthodox-Israeli-newspaper-airbrushes-female-world-leaders-JeSuisCharlie-march-photographs.html
In case anyone missed it in the budgetand has ownership of 3.5% war loan, it is being redeemed by the Govt at Par/ Christmas comes twice for some !
I'm on for £50 even if it is 1-3... no way he polls 2,500 votes.
And surely equally possibly Booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!, depending what you paid for it?
He's highly unlikely to make any effort, other than a couple of comedy TV appearances in S. Thanet. That won't win him 2500 votes.
Unless some kind of Beppe Grillo parody FUKP *movement* takes off between now & may, 1/3 is a dead cert.
The Tories haven't selected their candidate yet.
They are asking around for someone to stand.
The right candidate could topple Nick Clegg.
A charismatic, intelligent chap, with an excellent knowledge of history, music and politics, who lives in Sheffield Hallam could do it.
#JustSaying
Bravo George Osborne.
Strangely enough possibly the funniest 'FUKP' policy gag is at the expense of Russell 'paradigm' Brand rather than Nige.
http://boingboing.net/2015/01/13/what-david-cameron-just-propos.html
I have launched internet access services, written contracts with foreign govts, written speeches for a Lord, passed MOD 05-21, installed equipment, written DBASe repoorts, used Cobol, launched mobile products, run pr events at the sports grounds, presented to 2,000+, managed sales and customer service units, managed projectsof >£50m, represented UK company on foreign tv in 4 countries..... etc etc
and ..... Never been paid by the public sector.
Aren't they redeeming Consols 2.5% too? There was also (I think) a 4% irredeemable (as they were collectively known) - I have a feeling that it used to be known as 'Never/Nevers'. Many issues had all sorts of daft names - 'Eeyores', 'Winnies', 'Greeks', and 'Little Greeks' are the ones I remember.
(I used to trade Gilts for a living)
total desperation, what planet is this man on ?
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/jan/14/britain-richest-country-world-george-osborne-fiscal-policy
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-30816523
Another fine principled, patriotic chap, has seen the error of his ways, and has defected from Labour to the Tories.
Saying he can't : Cameron is “Strongest and Best Leader...could no longer defend Ed Miliband and Ed Balls."
http://www.ilfordrecorder.co.uk/news/former_ilford_north_labour_chairman_defects_to_conservatives_at_height_of_wes_streeting_campaign_1_3914863
Dieudonné to be put on trial for "condoning terrorism"...
http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-01-14/dieudonne-to-stand-trial-for-condoning-terrorism/
BBC - Comedian Al Murray will stand in his guise as The Pub Landlord against UKIP leader Nigel Farage at the general election. - Mr Murray, whose character is based around a love for all things British, has formed the Free United Kingdom Party.
FUKP..! -but for the BBC reporting this, I’d have thought it one of PB’s wilder conspiracy theories. – or a joke.
At the moment I'm inclined to still vote Conservative at the General Election, to get rid of Balls, but shun them at others.
I think the numbers last week were 49% said they were effective, and something like 36 or 38% said they were ineffective.
Give me a few mins to dig out the full figures/link to the data tables.
How effective do you think the current coalition government is at dealing with the threat from extremism and terrorism?
Total effective 49%
Total ineffective 37%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdfhttps://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdf
Anyway, even if others support the government's response, that's even MORE of a reason for those that understand the issues more deeply to negate the effect and reduce the incentive for governments to do such thing.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/pa8h03bwdg/InterimResults_150108_Website.pdf
There was some polling a few months ago, saying they wanted Theresa May/The Government to go further in restricting our civil liberties.
I'll dig that out as well.
Edited extra bit: Flavius, not Nicephorus, it seems.
(although you and Socrates probably think I'm a leftie... )
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/11344083/Jim-Murphy-risks-looking-like-a-loser-by-running-away-from-a-winning-effort.html
Theresa May has gone too far with anti-terrorism powers, infringing people's human rights and giving the police and the security services too many powers to snoop into ordinary people's lives
Gone too far 18%
Not gone far enough 37%
Balance about right 19%
DK 27%
Requiring communications companies to store details identifing who was using a computer or mobile at a given time and make it available to the security services?
Good idea 51%
Unnecessary overreaction 27%
Not sure 22%
Requiring internet and social media companies to monitor content on their sites and inform the authorities of any communications that could relate to terrorist activity?
Good idea 67%
Unnecessary overreaction 18%
Not sure 16%
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vibey5ti4y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sunday-Times-results-281114.pdf
I only real rate S&Ps as a rating agency; they have such a cool name.
But they've beaten me to it.