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Should we start adding a Trump effect to the polls and betting strategies? – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,123

    I do wonder if there is an optimum size for countries.

    The countries which tend to top league tables are often in the 5m to 10m range.

    Perhaps above that size governments become overly large to effectively control and too distant from the people.
    Beware statistical effects. There are significantly more countries of that size, and a country of that size needs fewer successful industries to be economically successful, so you would expect more statistical outliers, compared to a country that was larger.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,053
    rcs1000 said:

    Also, I've found they are better at getting out of bed in the morning.
    Being next to snoring, farting lumps may be a factor.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,146
    Ukrainian claims of Russian deaths, casualties, missing and captured pass 900,000 today.

    Next milestone will be 25,000 pieces of artillery. 24,848 currently, 101 added yesterday.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,000
    Battlebus said:

    Will the hand of Trump be there in the Irish Presidential Elections?

    Conor McGregor wants to emulate Trump and rule as President - after meeting Trump.

    “Ireland, the choice is yours and it is an easy one. Vote for me as your President and we will SAVE IRELAND TOGETHER,” McGregor wrote in a separate Thursday post on X.

    He hinted at the idea of a presidential bid in September on social media with a proposal to rid the nation of it’s lower chamber, the Dáil Éireann, which has the power to pass any law, and to nominate or remove the head of government.

    “As President I hold the power to summon the Dáil as well as dissolve it,” McGregor wrote in a post on X.

    “This would be my power as President. I know very well. Ireland needs an active President employed wholly by the people of Ireland. It is me. I am the only logical choice. 2025 is upcoming,” he continued.


    https://thehill.com/policy/international/5206530-ufc-legend-conor-mcgregor-running-for-president-of-ireland/

    The politics in Ireland would be interesting.

    There are a lot of people there who remember growing up in a (Roman Catholic directed) morally fundamentalist state, with lots of blind spots.

    I saw a comment on YT on the Zeihan "Christian Ultranationalist" video from yesterday:

    As an Irishman, I grew up in an absolute theocracy. We just didn't call it that at the time. I can guarantee you, most European countries will never stand for that religious bull any more.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,434
    edited March 21
    Anyone betting on when Russia is blamed for the substation fire?

    Given that it's a rather uncommon event and this is probably the most strategically / economically important one in the country..
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,128
    edited March 21
    eek said:

    Anyone betting on when Russia is blamed for the substation fire?

    Some Russian tourists heard about the wonders of Staines?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,347
    eek said:

    Anyone betting on when Russia is blamed for the substation fire?

    Given that it's a rather uncommon event and this is probably the most strategically / economically important one in the country..

    Is there a world famous cathedral nearby?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,205

    Every story so far has been a) proven terrorist sympathiser, b) criminal past, c) entering illegally for work without the correct visa. You are going to have trouble with US immigration officials every time regardless of Trump if you match any of the above.

    The only one I can think of that isn't that is the French scientist, but we don't know the full story on that one and its a bit suss they pulled him on arrival to an academic conference. Could be mistaken identity.
    Of the three German cases we are talking about:

    Birgit Brösche was detained because she had tattoing equipment in her luggage, so was suspected of planning to illegally work, which she denies. She could also have just been deported rather than detained for 6 weeks.

    Lucas Sielaff was detained for 16 days for reasons that aren't clear. It seems he mistakenly gave the address he was staying in the US as his home address because his English is poor.

    https://www.tagesspiegel.de/gesellschaft/fussfesseln-bohnen-psychospiele-wie-ein-25-jahriger-aus-sachsen-anhalt-fur-16-tage-im-us-abschiebegefangnis-landete-13392799.html

    He and his fiancée tried to explain that he was only visiting and had therefore given her place of residence as his address. To no avail. The couple was forced out of the car and taken to separate rooms for questioning. Sielaff was searched and then handcuffed to a bench.

    Only hours after his interrogation – which he had to conduct without an interpreter – was he allowed to go to the car to give the dog water. He was not released that day, however. The German was taken to a cell. His fiancée was told she could leave if she went to Las Vegas immediately. She informed Sielaff's family in Germany.

    After two days in a cell at the border control point, Lucas Sielaff was taken to a detention center near San Diego – with a chain around his waist, handcuffs, and leg shackles, he says. At the Otay Mesa Detention Center, he was fingerprinted, had to sign papers, and hand over his clothing.
    ...

    Meanwhile, his fiancée and family in Germany fought for his release, contacting the media and the German embassy. However, the embassy was unable to provide any information, as they wrote in an email. Sielaff was also not provided with a lawyer because no trial date had been set.

    It took 16 days for Lucas Sielaff to be released. Suddenly, his name was called, and he was told he could leave if he booked a flight to Germany now. His fiancée arranged his return to Germany for $2,800. On March 6, he flew to Munich. Beforehand, he was taken to the airport—again in chains—and his passport was handed over to the flight crew. At least the police officers explained to the crew that he was not dangerous.


    I'm not sure which of "a) proven terrorist sympathiser, b) criminal past, c) entering illegally for work without the correct visa" you think this case falls under.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,053
    Battlebus said:

    Will the hand of Trump be there in the Irish Presidential Elections?

    Conor McGregor wants to emulate Trump and rule as President - after meeting Trump.

    “Ireland, the choice is yours and it is an easy one. Vote for me as your President and we will SAVE IRELAND TOGETHER,” McGregor wrote in a separate Thursday post on X.

    He hinted at the idea of a presidential bid in September on social media with a proposal to rid the nation of it’s lower chamber, the Dáil Éireann, which has the power to pass any law, and to nominate or remove the head of government.

    “As President I hold the power to summon the Dáil as well as dissolve it,” McGregor wrote in a post on X.

    “This would be my power as President. I know very well. Ireland needs an active President employed wholly by the people of Ireland. It is me. I am the only logical choice. 2025 is upcoming,” he continued.


    https://thehill.com/policy/international/5206530-ufc-legend-conor-mcgregor-running-for-president-of-ireland/


    McGregor is being called Andrew Tayto on twitter, particularly amusing since he does resemble a vulgarly dressed, hyper-active potato.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,460
    ydoethur said:

    Gosh. No wonder it's proving
    a bugger to put out.
    Although in the list of my “favourite fires “ this one is hard to beat. The opening paragraph (from 2015) gives you a flavour:

    Imagine you are a parent, and that out of the blue, you get a letter from your child's school telling you not to worry — that they're ready to evacuate or shelter in place if an underground fire at a nearby landfill reaches radioactive waste on the same property.

    https://www.npr.org/2015/11/03/454010066/landfill-fire-threatens-nuclear-waste-site-outside-st-louis

    Here’s an update from 2 months ago… 10 years later…

    https://missouriindependent.com/2025/01/22/high-likelihood-of-radioactive-waste-in-smoldering-landfill-missouri-officials-say/




  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,927
    eek said:

    Anyone betting on when Russia is blamed for the substation fire?

    Given that it's a rather uncommon event and this is probably the most strategically / economically important one in the country..

    As soon as I read the headlines ten minutes ago I thought 'Russia'.

    We will see.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,277


    McGregor is being called Andrew Tayto on twitter, particularly amusing since he does resemble a vulgarly dressed, hyper-active potato.
    Assault and Vinegar flavour
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,244

    Sean Dilley - BBC Transport correspondent, is filling me with lots of optimism (not).

    "The term "nightmare" is too weak of a descriptor to paint a true picture of the chaos this will cause."

    Yay.

    The BBC and other media outlets live for stories like this. It writes its own content by the sheer number of people that it directly and clearly affects and allows for as much hyperbole as they really want to use.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,529

    As soon as I read the headlines ten minutes ago I thought 'Russia'.

    We will see.
    It's not a slam dunk, substation fires do happen.

    We had a slightly noteworthy one in a suburb of Huddersfield last week, in that a power worker was injured in it. I very much doubt Russia was involved.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,591
    A Russian arsehole being interviewed on Today just now, talking utter shit, and being totally soft soaped by the interviewer. Why is the BBC so bad at this?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,970

    Poisoning by insulin in some of the cases, air into the bloodstream in another, and overfeeding milk. The alleged different methods of killing is also slightly worrying to me.

    Wiki seems to have a reasonable outline summary of events:
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucy_Letby
    covering up incompetence and crap practices no doubt , she was the unfortunate scapegoat to divert attention.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,000
    Hmm. Reflecting on the shift to green energy here, and President Chump's attempts to make us dependent on his gas and oil.

    For Europe, it's a big part of strategic autonomy. We are moving towards a position where we do not *need* to be dependent on either of the (big and small) despots - wither Potus or Putin.

    And a more distributed system is more resilient.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,824

    As soon as I read the headlines ten minutes ago I thought 'Russia'.

    We will see.
    If it is Russia what do we do? It would be a declaration of war by any normal measure but I think we would shy away from finding it so.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,927

    Ukrainian claims of Russian deaths, casualties, missing and captured pass 900,000 today.

    Next milestone will be 25,000 pieces of artillery. 24,848 currently, 101 added yesterday.

    They've done a fantastic job of significantly weakening Putin's war machine. If only they could be given another 12 months to finish things we would all be a lot safer.

    But Trumpski...
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,205
    kamski said:

    Of the three German cases we are talking about:

    Birgit Brösche was detained because she had tattoing equipment in her luggage, so was suspected of planning to illegally work, which she denies. She could also have just been deported rather than detained for 6 weeks.

    Lucas Sielaff was detained for 16 days for reasons that aren't clear. It seems he mistakenly gave the address he was staying in the US as his home address because his English is poor.

    https://www.tagesspiegel.de/gesellschaft/fussfesseln-bohnen-psychospiele-wie-ein-25-jahriger-aus-sachsen-anhalt-fur-16-tage-im-us-abschiebegefangnis-landete-13392799.html

    He and his fiancée tried to explain that he was only visiting and had therefore given her place of residence as his address. To no avail. The couple was forced out of the car and taken to separate rooms for questioning. Sielaff was searched and then handcuffed to a bench.

    Only hours after his interrogation – which he had to conduct without an interpreter – was he allowed to go to the car to give the dog water. He was not released that day, however. The German was taken to a cell. His fiancée was told she could leave if she went to Las Vegas immediately. She informed Sielaff's family in Germany.

    After two days in a cell at the border control point, Lucas Sielaff was taken to a detention center near San Diego – with a chain around his waist, handcuffs, and leg shackles, he says. At the Otay Mesa Detention Center, he was fingerprinted, had to sign papers, and hand over his clothing.
    ...

    Meanwhile, his fiancée and family in Germany fought for his release, contacting the media and the German embassy. However, the embassy was unable to provide any information, as they wrote in an email. Sielaff was also not provided with a lawyer because no trial date had been set.

    It took 16 days for Lucas Sielaff to be released. Suddenly, his name was called, and he was told he could leave if he booked a flight to Germany now. His fiancée arranged his return to Germany for $2,800. On March 6, he flew to Munich. Beforehand, he was taken to the airport—again in chains—and his passport was handed over to the flight crew. At least the police officers explained to the crew that he was not dangerous.


    I'm not sure which of "a) proven terrorist sympathiser, b) criminal past, c) entering illegally for work without the correct visa" you think this case falls under.
    The other case is Fabian Schmidt, which is different as he is a US resident

    https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/german-national-green-card-holder-immigration-detention-fabian-schmidt-rcna196714

    Astrid Senior, Schmidt’s mother, said she and her son moved to the U.S. from Germany in 2007 and received green cards in 2008. He lives in New Hampshire and renewed his legal permanent resident status last year, she said.

    Senior said she has no idea why her son is being detained by U.S. immigration officials. She said her son, who once lived in California, faced misdemeanor charges roughly a decade ago. He has no active legal or court issues, Senior said.


    Maybe you're right and there is nothing special to see here, but are people with legal residence and 10-year-old misdemeanor charges usually detained at the airport?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,927
    Guess the Heathrow fire will block out the dire news for Reeves on public borrowing.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,233

    It's a long, long way to 'lying' about owning a shredder to killing lots of babies, isn't it?

    And to repeat myself: it seems that they focused on Letby really early on, and they do not seem to have looked too long, or at all, at other potential causes - and as doctors killing babies is thankfully very rare, you would expect other causes to be more likely.

    I don't know if Letby did it or not. But I can easily see how she might not have, and this is either a deliberate or tragic miscarriage of justice.

    What, in your mind, is the smoking gun? What proves her guilt to you?
    There were multiple lines of evidence, that were examined carefully in the trial. That’s why they got into the weeds of her having a paper shredder. One line of evidence was that she had medical records taken from the hospital and stashed under her bed, which is not normal behaviour. She testified in response to this. On multiple occasions, including on this matter, her testimony contradicted itself.

    If your testimony contradicts itself and you can’t explain incriminatory evidence, that’s going to look bad for you at trial.

    “they do not seem to have looked too long, or at all, at other potential causes”: that’s simply untrue. You’ve made that up. The hospital went to some length to defend Letby, delaying her referral to the police. They did that by concluding that the deaths had other causes. From Wikipedia: “Records of the hospital board meeting show the medical director telling board members that the RCPCH and Hawdon reviews concluded that the deaths in the neonatal unit were due to issues with leadership and timely intervention.”

    I think she was guilty because two juries concluded that, and 5 appeal judges concluded the convictions were safe. Key evidence includes: the testimony of the mother of Baby E; being observed failing to intervene with a desaturating baby; how she falsified times on medical records; a high number of unexpected deaths in the night, which stop when Letby is moved to day shifts and then there’s a high number of unexpected deaths in the day; the various evidence that the babies’ deaths were unnatural.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,146

    Guess the Heathrow fire will block out the dire news for Reeves on public borrowing.

    Where was she last night?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,331

    Sounds like a quango that @Luckyguy1983 would approve of
    :lol:
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,886
    edited March 21
    Re Kamski’s post .

    That’s horrific . If a small mistake on some paperwork can lead to those consequences then really anyone can get caught up in this.

    And it’s the cruelty that comes from the top which means instead of just deporting people they’re now put into detention centres.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,017
    tlg86 said:

    On Letby, the key thing for me is that the "high ups" went into bat for her for a long time. The doctors didn't need to do anything. No one was accusing them of being rubbish at their job. They could have kept quiet.

    So the argument that Letby was a convenient scapegoat doesn't hold water.

    Did they go 'into bat' for *her*, or were they just trying to protect the organisation and its reputation? And as that BBC article yesterday showed, blame was put onto Letby very early on.

    It's a really interesting case. She might have done it; she might not. But for me, there are significant doubts.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 605
    edited March 21
    DavidL said:

    If it is Russia what do we do? It would be a declaration of war by any normal measure but I think we would shy away from finding it so.
    Isn't the UK power distribution network in Chinese ownership. May be a toss-up as to who declares war on who.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,205
    nico67 said:

    Re Kamski’s post .

    That’s horrific . If a small mistake on some paperwork can lead to those consequences then really anyone can get caught up in this.

    And it’s the cruelty that comes from the top which means instead of just deporting people they’re now put into detention centres.

    Of course it's possible there's more to this story, but no explanation has been offered by the American authorities, and at this point I'm not inclined to give them the benefit of the doubt.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,314

    NEW THREAD

  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,591
    Battlebus said:

    Isn't the UK power distribution network in Chinese ownership. May be a toss-up as to who declares war on who.
    You’d think Heathrow would be a perfect site fire massive solar arrays and back up battery storage. Maybe panels reflecting the sun would be a hazard for landing planes.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,970

    There were multiple lines of evidence, that were examined carefully in the trial. That’s why they got into the weeds of her having a paper shredder. One line of evidence was that she had medical records taken from the hospital and stashed under her bed, which is not normal behaviour. She testified in response to this. On multiple occasions, including on this matter, her testimony contradicted itself.

    If your testimony contradicts itself and you can’t explain incriminatory evidence, that’s going to look bad for you at trial.

    “they do not seem to have looked too long, or at all, at other potential causes”: that’s simply untrue. You’ve made that up. The hospital went to some length to defend Letby, delaying her referral to the police. They did that by concluding that the deaths had other causes. From Wikipedia: “Records of the hospital board meeting show the medical director telling board members that the RCPCH and Hawdon reviews concluded that the deaths in the neonatal unit were due to issues with leadership and timely intervention.”

    I think she was guilty because two juries concluded that, and 5 appeal judges concluded the convictions were safe. Key evidence includes: the testimony of the mother of Baby E; being observed failing to intervene with a desaturating baby; how she falsified times on medical records; a high number of unexpected deaths in the night, which stop when Letby is moved to day shifts and then there’s a high number of unexpected deaths in the day; the various evidence that the babies’ deaths were unnatural.
    True, never been any wrong convictions in the past , nobody ever put in jail turned out to be innocent but just at the wrong place at the wrong time whe nincompetent officialdom needed a victim. Also given the numpties walking our streets nowadays any jury is a gamble for sure.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,233

    Did they go 'into bat' for *her*, or were they just trying to protect the organisation and its reputation? And as that BBC article yesterday showed, blame was put onto Letby very early on.

    It's a really interesting case. She might have done it; she might not. But for me, there are significant doubts.
    You keep saying blame was put onto Letby “very early on” as if that is somehow an important sign of her innocence. This is some bizarre backwards logic. What happened was that it took over two years before the matter was referred to the police. People went out of their way to protect Letby, to not accuse her, for far too long.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,017

    There were multiple lines of evidence, that were examined carefully in the trial. That’s why they got into the weeds of her having a paper shredder. One line of evidence was that she had medical records taken from the hospital and stashed under her bed, which is not normal behaviour. She testified in response to this. On multiple occasions, including on this matter, her testimony contradicted itself.

    If your testimony contradicts itself and you can’t explain incriminatory evidence, that’s going to look bad for you at trial.

    “they do not seem to have looked too long, or at all, at other potential causes”: that’s simply untrue. You’ve made that up. The hospital went to some length to defend Letby, delaying her referral to the police. They did that by concluding that the deaths had other causes. From Wikipedia: “Records of the hospital board meeting show the medical director telling board members that the RCPCH and Hawdon reviews concluded that the deaths in the neonatal unit were due to issues with leadership and timely intervention.”

    I think she was guilty because two juries concluded that, and 5 appeal judges concluded the convictions were safe. Key evidence includes: the testimony of the mother of Baby E; being observed failing to intervene with a desaturating baby; how she falsified times on medical records; a high number of unexpected deaths in the night, which stop when Letby is moved to day shifts and then there’s a high number of unexpected deaths in the day; the various evidence that the babies’ deaths were unnatural.
    Again, read that BBC article and see the way Letby was named after the first couple of deaths. She was suspected, and after that there seem to have been efforts to blame her more. Perhaps because it reflected badly on the organisation because of the RCPCH and Hawdon reviews? Why did the court reject the conclusion of those reviews?

    And as below, the fact that it is alleged she killed the babies using different methods is a little whiffy, is it not? If you have successfully killed a baby using one method, why would you try to use different methods that might stand more chance of getting caught?

    I do fear that there's a chance she's just been caught up in a massive circumstantial web; it is also possible that no babies were murdered. Or alternatively, I fear that there's a chance that she's a mass-murderer. But I don't think it's a slam-dunk in either direction.

    But the shredder argument is just stupid.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,824

    Guess the Heathrow fire will block out the dire news for Reeves on public borrowing.

    Absolutely horrendous. Over £10bn deficit in February alone and this unsustainable pumping in of excess demand is doing no more than keeping the economy flat lining with no growth in sight.

    We are in a terrible mess. Debt has risen by £1trn over the last 5 years and for what? What do we actually get a return on from that unimaginably large sum of money? Many people who could afford it got help with their heating bills. Millions who could have worked got paid not to. Nothing of substance, no infrastructure, nothing that is going to generate future wealth. Bugger.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,000
    edited March 21

    Swedes leading the charge of countries that now basically hate America. Canada not far behind. Russians feeling a lot more positive now that Vlad's best friend is in the WHouse.


    Alan Ohnsman
    @alanoh.bsky.social‬

    Follow
    Surprise: Trump's tariffs trigger a sharp uptick in anti-American sentiment globally

    https://bsky.app/profile/alanoh.bsky.social/post/3lktormzzcs2e

    That's a Morning Consult graphic, and the supporting commentary (without charts) is here:

    https://archive.is/20250321023750/https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/american-brands-tariff-exposure

    I think that when Mr Trump has finished burning down all their bridges of influence or friendship, the USA is going to wake up and find that it is not as dominant as they assumed.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,017

    You keep saying blame was put onto Letby “very early on” as if that is somehow an important sign of her innocence. This is some bizarre backwards logic. What happened was that it took over two years before the matter was referred to the police. People went out of their way to protect Letby, to not accuse her, for far too long.
    Or were they going out of their way to protect the organisation?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,582
    ydoethur said:

    Why so much oil? Lubrication?
    Insulation primarily.

    Needs annual checks, and oil replacement every few years, as you can get breakdown chemicals and worse, water in it - which can lead to shorting and fire/explosion.

    They're supposed to have a life of around 25-30 years, but can last longer if well looked after.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,331
    Scott_xP said:

    Assault and Vinegar flavour
    I definitely would NOT say it to his face however.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,227
    malcolmg said:

    Unfortunately your data on others includes pensioners etc whilst UK is only up to age 64
    No it doesn't. You need to learn to read.
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