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Has Donald Trump killed Scottish nationalism stone dead? – politicalbetting.com

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  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,322
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France without Dupont are not THAT impressive. Yet

    Good enough to win the Six Nations though.
    Indeed

    But England are very young and full of talent, for the first time in a long long time I am optimistic

    Fin Smith is world class and then we have Marcus doing his mazey stuff, and a host of new, strong players

    And we very nearly won the Slam in the Under 20s. Hopeful signs
    There was some weird reporting after the first game, talk of England being steamrollered iirc, but it wasn't that bog a loss.
    The media (U.K.) has been in thrall to the Irish rugby team for years. The stuff around beating the all blacks, how it’s the golden generation etc. Lots of Irish legends played their last game today (for Ireland, at least). I sense they are in decline, France in the ascendant. England could be great, but the sclerotic media are awful.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,415

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,765
    edited March 15

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    Battlebus said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    @TSE is making the error of assuming that anything about Scottish independence is rational or responsive to reason. It's not. Its driven by emotion and a sense of identity and resentment. The current unpopularity of the Labour government in Scotland is a concern. Labour are, of course, finding out that the Tories didn't make cuts (just) because they were nasty but because they had no choice. We have already had the WFA and now Labour are going after the allegedly sick. Personally, I am expecting support for independence to rise somewhat.

    Osborne chose austerity because he was heartless, why the LDs went along with it is another question.

    Without increased taxation Labour are lumbered with austerity. Now that is a choice, a foolhardy one in my opinion. Good luck at the next election when deaf, dumb and blind kids are begging on the streets because Labour removed their PIP.

    This Labour Government don't think on their feet. They could sell increased taxation (and borrowing) as a necessity post Russia-USA alignment .
    Oh for pity's sake. Does the plight of the feckless Reeves show you nothing? Osborne chose austerity because the country was bankrupt with unpayable contingent liabilities for an overgrown banking sector and a complete collapse in revenues from that source. The Lib Dems went along because there was no choice. Just like Reeves is doing now.
    Austerity was an ideological choice. Many commentators, and not necessarily from the left, are opining that austerity was a grave error. There were other options. There are now. One of Reeves and Starmer's biggest millstones is the spectre of the Truss-Kwarteng budget. The Germans are going balls deep into borrowing for defence investment. We could do the same.
    Germany has an almost balanced and a lot of room to borrow. Osborne inherited a 10% deficit, 70% of which was structural. We are and never were in any way comparable to Germany, their financial foundations are far, far stronger than ours. If the government (Tory or Labour) tried to go on a gigantic unfunded borrowing binge the markets would enforce discipline just as they did to Truss. That you think we could do what Germany is doing wrt borrowing for defence and infrastructure just shows how little you understand how bad our financial position is and has been since 2008.
    The financial state of the economy must have been pretty good in 2023. How else could the Chancellor have significantly cut NI (twice).*

    * My tongue is firmly in my cheek.

    If NI cuts were affordable then but they are not now, taxes need to rise. This Government's greatest folly was suggesting the status quo could continue without tax rises. Your Party/ Government's manifesto pledge was that taxes could continue to fall whilst services would continue to rise. Either they were lying or their economic understanding was as deficient as you claim mine to be.

    One of my key concerns over austerity both

    now and fifteen years ago has been the consistent misunderstanding between cost of a service and value added from that service.. Binning HS2 was a case in pointReeves/ Starmer are making this error.

    I understand the difference between the structural and cyclical deficit, but I see no other way to pay for the nice things we want like military aircraft, nuclear warheads, boots on the ground and adequate housing without borrowing. Borrowing for defence and infrastructure is the last resort way to generate growth. How have the growth stats been since 2008 austerity kicked in? And growth whilst outside the largest single friction free trading block available to use is even more daunting. Remind me which side of that fence you were on over that event. As an economist help me understand why leaving the EU was optimal to domestic growth and the balance of payments deficit of the UK.
    Labour have put taxes up, just on farmers and business owners
    Employer NI wouldn't have been a route I would have followed, but I have no problem with 20% inheritance tax for properties over £3m. The Government need to be looking at wealth taxes too. Why are Labour so timid?
    Because either a wealth tax includes housing and it's politically disastrous or it doesn't and raises pennies at the cost of huge damage to the economy as the wealthy move their business, shares, etc out of the country.
    The primary domestic dwelling could easily be exempted.
    Then it wouldn't raise much but would destroy the already damaged private rental market, hitting the young and poor the most.

    There's no easy way to raise the already record tax burden - if there were, the rapacious Labour Party or the only slightly less greedy Conservatives would have tried it to exhaustion and beyond.
    Why would a 'private rental market' be damaged. If landlords sold up, a family requiring a home would move in. One less in the queue. The PRS is simply an investment vehicle for a particular group who could put their money into more productive areas of the economy. It the similar argument for those who under occupy a property as 'it's their pension' but never use it as a pension.
    This is bizarre attitude that you get from private landlords everywhere. Sure, there is a minority of highly mobile workers who need rental properties to move around the country/globe to exploit job opportunities, but for everyone else owning a property is far more desirable because of the massive financial advantages of doing so.

    It's not like the flat disappears off the face of the earth when the landlord sells up. The size of the private rental market now is a function of gross wealth inequality, not demand for renting relative to ownership.
    There speaks someone completely out of touch , well seen you have your own house and plenty cash and no idea what would happen to the the poor sods who cannot afford to buy and have the rental houses pulled from under their feet.
    ^ exactly the kind of person I was talking about. People who cannot comprehend that the reason so many people are renting is because more and more of the housing stock is being bought up by wealthy landlords, restricting the supply for first time buyers.
    Speaking from experience, many young people have to move around in the first five or ten years of their careers - this is the nature of the job market these days. As such, they ussually end up either in rented flats or HMOs. My daughter is a good example of this having just moved out and across to the other side of the country for work. She actually could afford to buy (for reasons I explained a few days ago on here) but she and her partner don't want to yet until they know where they are going to finally settle.

    Long term buying is far better (IMO). But the idea we don't need a private rental sector at all for all sorts of reasons is just wrong.

    That's exactly the point I made above. But the idea that everyone renting now is doing so because they want to is plainly wrong - I rented for about four years longer than I wanted to, and it still required a gift worth £10,000s to get me on the ladder. There are other people in the same situation for decades because they don't have the intergenerational wealth to escape.

    Let's say half of private landlords were forced to sell up in the next 5 years. What would that do to house prices in our cities? Would that make it easier for first time buyers? Would there be thousands of empty flats?
    I actualy agree with your end aim. The problem is that if you forced 50% of landlords to sell up, whilst it might reduce the cost of housing a small amount, it would not reduce the cost of buying a house sufficiently for all those people who are currently renting a house to be able to afford one. So the cost of renting goes up and they are even worse off.

    Also worth remembering that, for all I think the dream of owning a house is a noble one and one we should try to make reality for all who want it, mass house wonership is only a relatively recent, post war, phenomena.
    Why would the cost of renting go up? We've just removed 50% of demand too, with half of renting households moving into their own properties. At the very least, I think we should try to stop the trend of increasing renting rates - we're moving rather rapidly towards a new type of feudalism.

    But yes - I actually agree with Nick's point, which is that the only reason this is become such a big issue is because the model in the UK makes owning property almost essential. A large majority in Germany rent, but housing costs are much lower. That wouldn't be a necessarily bad outcome.
    Er no you havene't. That is based on the assumption that the cost of housing drops sufficiently for those who are renting to be able to buy the house they are living in or a similar property. That is almost certainly not going to happen. So those families living in rented property suddenly find that the property is no longer available and they can't afford to buy anywhere else.
    I don't see why that couldn't happen. You're suggesting that swathes of housing in Edinburgh would lie empty if it wasn't for the private rental market.
    No, I am suggesting that the people who would buy it wuld not be the sorts of people who were having to rent it in the first place. How do they raise a deposit? You do realise that according to the FT and the Halifax it is now cheaper to rent than buy in the short to medium term?

    https://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2024/03/28/renting-cheaper-than-buying-first-home-in-majority-of-uk/
    This is getting a bit silly. All I'm suggesting is that the idea that private landlords provide some sort of service is nonsense. Whatever the form of tenure, housing demand is so high in our cities that homes will be occupied. It's just that the tax system + gross inequality will lead to the landlord class enjoying all the capital gains from housing, while those at the bottom suffer more and more.
    But the point is that they do provide a very necessary service. There might be a lot wrong with theway it is done - much of which is being addressed by successive governments - but the fact is we need private landlords. There are large numbers of people who cannot afford to buy houses. Getting rid of private landlords won't change that even if a few who are now renting are able to buy. All you will do is put further restrictions on the rental market by reducing availability and drive up rents.

    At what point do they stop providing a necessary service? 40% renting tenure? 80%? The full feudal?
    Ah falling back on the reductio ad absurdum fallacy. I thought you were better than that.

    I'm serious. For what proportion of people do you think renting is the optimal option over owning their own place?
    I don't believe there is an optimal number. It is an entirely objective fact that does not lend itself to such subjective analysis. Some people want to rent. Other people have to rent because of circumstance or because it is the cheapest option. Yet more people are forced to rent because they cannot afford to buy. Getting rid of private landlords limits the choice of those who choose to rent and will do very little or nothing for those who have to rent.

    Private landlords are necessary. Some might say a necessary evil even if I would not agree with that. You apparently think they are evil without being necessary. It is a very silly position to take.
    At no point did I suggest getting rid of private landlords. I am one, after all.

    It's this idea that they provide some sort of social good that irritates me - it's just a rational decision based on your personal circumstances; you don't need to justify the morals of it. I'd guess at least 50% of people renting would rather own their own place, and the fact they can't is in part because so many people have, like me, found the best use of their money is renting a property out.

    If that suddenly became less attractive, it wouldn't alter the overall demand and supply of housing, but it would mean more people could start paying off a mortgage rather than doing the same for their landlord.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    @carnforth

    Knoydart is stunning


    The pub is brilliant (if it’s still open)

    This is staring across the water to Knoydart


  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,786

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
    I assume you mean those comments for @RochdalePioneers but good points
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
    I assume you mean those comments for @RochdalePioneers but good points
    They were. But to answer him I'm not convinced that Banffshire and Buchan Coast is that reformy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,241
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh @Leon has returned!

    Hi Sean 👍

    Sadly.

    I will be off.
    Why don't we have a vote, to see whether PB-ers, regulars and lurkers alike, would rather you or I stayed?

    Seriously. It might be interesting. If you win, fair enough - I shall bugger off for good (and I really don't know how it would go)

    Call a plebiscite!
    On topic, haven't we learned our lesson that nothing good (and especially, no group closure) comes from such things?
    lol

    But we are surely as sophisicated as the Swiss, and they handle referenderrr just fine

    I'm quite serious. Several of the mods want me to fuck off once and for all, they've made it plain with relentless bans on any pretext. Also, while I was away this time I became notably more productive, saw more friends, was nicer with my family and actually felt a little bit happier - not having pointless arguments with people I will never meet. My mood was sweeter. There was also a price, I was less informed about the latest news and politics, but right now, in our troubled times, that could be seen as a boon

    So let's have a fun vote. If people want me to go so people like @CorrectHorseBattery can stay, then I will accept the verdict with grace (I hope) and depart this here parish for good

    Might be an amusing way to pass a Sunday on PB
    Giver yourself a voluntary ban every other fortnight ?
    You, and we, might get the best of both worlds.

    If you've got the willpower.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,211
    edited March 15

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    MattW said:

    Eabhal said:

    I have conducted a quick review of Facebook and the narrative developing is that we should not be cutting incapacity benefits while we spend billions on asylum seeker hotels. I would guess that a very large proportion of the "middle-aged man on disability benefits" cohort are Reform voters (or soon to be so).

    Also links being made to the assisted suicide bill, and waiting lists for operations. Former scaffolders with long-term injuries etc. This is going to be toxic.

    Watch the numbers on asylum seeker hotels, which are due out this month.

    They are about 40% down from peak, but tbf they also came down under the Conservatives.

    But the riposte will be "why are the ANY hotels".

    That they are not 4 star hotels as claimed does not matter, because the narrative is about emotion not truth.
    So why are there any hotels?
    Because we are insisting that they can't work until they are processed, and we're not processing them fast enough.
    The interests of the local population seem to come last in either case. Either we put them up in hotels at great expense or let them compete against locals in the job and housing markets.
    The best and cheapest and most humane solution is immediate processing. About 30% will be returned and 70% will be accepted as genuine asylum seekers.

    These will enter the jobs and housing markets, paying taxes and doing useful work, including, in some cases, helping to build houses.

    What do you suggest?
    I strongly doubt whether 70% are asylum seekers, and if they are, then the bar is set far too low. Finger in the air: about 2% should genuinely be offered asylum.
    Based on what? Three of the top 5 countries for asylum seekers are Syria, Iran and Afghanistan. Do you doubt that people have good reasons to flee those countries?
    But why should we take them? Most of them will be coming through half a dozen other safe countries.
    I'd suggest people we should be taking are those from HK or Ukraine, where we have specific reasons for taking them. Granted some Afghanistani asylum seekers would fall into that category. In general, we should probably be trying to avoid people from medeival shitholes like Syria.
    You had said only 2% are genuine asylum seekers. Now you are saying that they are asylum seekers, but we shouldn’t take them? Is that it?

    Let’s be clear, most Syrian, Afghan and Iranian refugees *are* in other safe (and indeed unsafe) countries between us and them. There are far, far more Syrians seeking asylum in Turkey and Jordan, for example. There are about 20,000 Syrian refugees in the UK. There are 3,000,000 in Turkey, 800k in Lebanon, 650k in Jordan, 630k in Germany, 50k in the Netherlands, 45k in Greece, 30k in France and so on. I think it’s a good thing that the burden of helping those fleeing Syria has been shared around, and I note we’ve taken very few as a proportion. (Hopefully, the situation in Syria is now improving.)

    Calling Syria a mediaeval shithole is ahistorical, at best, but if you think Syria is such a terrible place, I would hope you would have more empathy for those who have fled.
    The ones who have fled are mainly the ones who wanted to make Syria a mediaeval shithole. The change of regime should mean that those now fleeing are the non-mediaeval shithole contingent, but sadly I haven't read any evidence of the first group returning to enjoy the fruits of their labours.
    What nonsense is this? Why on Earth do you think that the ones who fled wanted to make Syria a mediaeval shithole?
    The logic is fairly simple. Those fleeing before were cheifly those who opposed the dictatorship and wanted to install an islamist theocracy. Now that that goal has been achieved, that regime is perpetrating atrocities, or trying to so so, on their opponents - the Druze, the Christians, the Alawites. These people are now more likely to flee, and are by definition not Islamists.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-west-must-not-look-away-from-whats-happening-in-syria/
    The logic is balderdash. It sounds like your usual Putinist propaganda. People fleeing Syria were rarely in favour of an Islamist theocracy. They were, rather, in favour of not dying. There was widespread opposition to Assad’s rule from across the political spectrum, and from multiple different ethnic and ethnoreligous groups. Druze and Christians fled in significant numbers from Assad’s regime (e.g., see this policy brief: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/geography/sites/geography_redesign/files/ucl_migration_research_unit_policy_brief_-_k_eghdamian.pdf ).

    However, friends of Assad, like Putin, tried to portray him as an ally in a fight against Sunni extremism. That’s presumably the bullshit you’ve been listening to.
    That paper says absolutely nothing about significant numbers of Christians or Druze fleeing the Assad regime, it is a piece of qualitative research that interviewed 47 people. It also says this:

    Due to sectarian tensions and fears of reprisal attacks, Syrian Christian and Druze refugees often choose not to register with UNHCR and in order to avoid formal refugee camps, they seek lodging in urban centres, often living in monasteries, clustered housing, or makeshift camps.
    Which indicates fairly clearly that the bulk of refugees (as I mentioned 'chiefly') were not Christians or Druze, and were people who in-fact actually constituted a violent threat to people from these communities.

    The Assad regime was brutal in its behaviour to those who sought to remove it from power, but religious freedom was protected in the constitution:

    The State shall respect all religions, and ensure the freedom to perform all the rituals that do not prejudice public order; The personal status of religious communities shall be protected and respected.

    You say that these people were 'in favour of not dying', but they were not being threatened for just existing, or for following their religion were they? They were being threatened because like many during the course of Syria's history, they opposed the country's secular based-constitution with religious freedom and limited power for Islam. In other words, they wanted to make Syria 'a mediaeval shithole'.

    Once again, you bring nothing to the table to support your arguments but shrill 'Putinist' accusations - standard left-wing un-personing garbage. But sadly, as always, the facts let you down, as is now happening with the current IS-adjacent Government of Syria that Alistair Campbell was fawning over recently and is now purging the Alawites.

    Though to be fair to Alistair, he has been very forthright in his condemnation of the moral turpitude at the heart of the new Syrian regime:

    There was, Campbell acknowledged – ‘one big blot on the Syrian landscape’ – the ubiquity of men smoking. But otherwise everything seemed in order.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-west-must-not-look-away-from-whats-happening-in-syria/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,241
    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,415

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
    I assume you mean those comments for @RochdalePioneers but good points
    They were. But to answer him I'm not convinced that Banffshire and Buchan Coast is that reformy.
    Yes, my comments were for @RochdalePioneers. Did Reform benefit at the last GE from Douglas Ross being even more arsey than usual? Has David Duguid recovered from his illness?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,929

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
    I assume you mean those comments for @RochdalePioneers but good points
    They were. But to answer him I'm not convinced that Banffshire and Buchan Coast is that reformy.
    Reform will do best in Central Belt. BBC will be a Tory-SNP dogfight. Recent council by-elections reflect that. They'll likely come third.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,765
    Leon said:

    @carnforth

    Knoydart is stunning


    The pub is brilliant (if it’s still open)

    This is staring across the water to Knoydart


    Big fan too. The full expedition from Glenfinnan to Inverie and out to Kinlochhourn is stunning, but only for the most intrepid walkers. You could go missing in there for days before you pick up phone signal again.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,415

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France without Dupont are not THAT impressive. Yet

    Good enough to win the Six Nations though.
    Indeed

    But England are very young and full of talent, for the first time in a long long time I am optimistic

    Fin Smith is world class and then we have Marcus doing his mazey stuff, and a host of new, strong players

    And we very nearly won the Slam in the Under 20s. Hopeful signs
    There was some weird reporting after the first game, talk of England being steamrollered iirc, but it wasn't that bog a loss.
    The media (U.K.) has been in thrall to the Irish rugby team for years. The stuff around beating the all blacks, how it’s the golden generation etc. Lots of Irish legends played their last game today (for Ireland, at least). I sense they are in decline, France in the ascendant. England could be great, but the sclerotic media are awful.
    England have stamina, but insufficient skill. Scotland have skill, but insufficient stamina, nor the killer instinct. Ireland and France have both. If England and Scotland want to win the championship, they need to have stamina, skill, and the killer instinct.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
    I assume you mean those comments for @RochdalePioneers but good points
    They were. But to answer him I'm not convinced that Banffshire and Buchan Coast is that reformy.
    Yes, my comments were for @RochdalePioneers. Did Reform benefit at the last GE from Douglas Ross being even more arsey than usual? Has David Duguid recovered from his illness?
    Locally to me, Reform came 3rd at the General. Didn't get anywhere near council seats at the by-elections last November, will continue to struggle up here.

    David Duguid is most definitely on the mend and absolutely would have been fit enough to serve as MP, despite the DRoss plot against him...
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,387
    Labour's majority not big enough:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy9dgwe1q27o
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,584
    nico67 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    Sad to see the US becoming a failed state . We’re so lucky to live in a country where we still have certain standards that we expect from politicians. I’ve not seen a politician here stand up and mock a disabled person , the tip of the iceberg of detestable behaviour from the stain on humanity .
    OMG. Just imagine what happens when Elon and Trump inevitably fall out!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,459

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
    I assume you mean those comments for @RochdalePioneers but good points
    They were. But to answer him I'm not convinced that Banffshire and Buchan Coast is that reformy.
    Yes, my comments were for @RochdalePioneers. Did Reform benefit at the last GE from Douglas Ross being even more arsey than usual? Has David Duguid recovered from his illness?
    This got me thinking about unlikely political patterns across the country. Like Reform next door to the Greens and Lib Dems in East Anglia (Great Yarmouth, Waveney valley, North Norfolk).

    I drove for a weekend in Norfolk last summer and went through Labour, then Corbyn independent, then Labour, Tory, Green, Labour, Tory and finally Lib Dem. And within an inch of Reform in Yarmouth if I’d turned off the main road.

    Unlikely we’ll see a Reform Westminster seat in Scotland in the near future but it’s conceivable they could end up next door to PC in Wales. Possibly one or two Ref-LD marginals in the West Country in due course too.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France without Dupont are not THAT impressive. Yet

    Good enough to win the Six Nations though.
    Indeed

    But England are very young and full of talent, for the first time in a long long time I am optimistic

    Fin Smith is world class and then we have Marcus doing his mazey stuff, and a host of new, strong players

    And we very nearly won the Slam in the Under 20s. Hopeful signs
    There was some weird reporting after the first game, talk of England being steamrollered iirc, but it wasn't that bog a loss.
    The media (U.K.) has been in thrall to the Irish rugby team for years. The stuff around beating the all blacks, how it’s the golden generation etc. Lots of Irish legends played their last game today (for Ireland, at least). I sense they are in decline, France in the ascendant. England could be great, but the sclerotic media are awful.
    England have stamina, but insufficient skill. Scotland have skill, but insufficient stamina, nor the killer instinct. Ireland and France have both. If England and Scotland want to win the championship, they need to have stamina, skill, and the killer instinct.
    Nah, England have real skill now

    Fin Smith, Marcus Smith, the back row, there is proper world class talent

    You don't beat Wales 66-14 in CARDIFF without some serious chops

    Moreover, England are the 2nd youngest team in the 6 Nations (after Italy) and they have the most promising Under 20s (as we see from their near Slam). Ireland are now in decline, France may have peaked (Dupont is 28), I'd have England as one of THE favourites for the next world cup

    Scotland were somewhat robbed today. They are such an exciting side, they just lack the depth of talent - on the bench etc - to take them to true greatness
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,569
    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    They're deporting people against the orders of federal courts too.
    https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2025/03/15/rhode-island-doctor-rasha-alawieh-deported-despite-federal-court-order/82441360007/

    Ultimately I think where I'm at is that Americans are going to have to choose to be a democracy or not.
    You can have all the laws and constitutions you like, but if people stand by while they're broken then they're not worth much.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,161
    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    They're deporting people against the orders of federal courts too.
    https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2025/03/15/rhode-island-doctor-rasha-alawieh-deported-despite-federal-court-order/82441360007/

    Ultimately I think where I'm at is that Americans are going to have to choose to be a democracy or not.
    You can have all the laws and constitutions you like, but if people stand by while they're broken then they're not worth much.
    At the end of the day, Trump won the election on a platform of delivering mass deportations and promised to use this act to do it. It's not Trump who is the threat to democracy over this.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/19/nx-s1-5156027/alien-enemies-act-1798-trump-immigration
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,584
    carnforth said:

    Labour's majority not big enough:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy9dgwe1q27o

    Whoever thought pulling legitimate benefits from genuinely disabled people was a vote winner?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,786
    carnforth said:

    Labour's majority not big enough:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy9dgwe1q27o

    That is why we will never address the real issues with honesty and frankness
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,182

    nico67 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    Sad to see the US becoming a failed state . We’re so lucky to live in a country where we still have certain standards that we expect from politicians. I’ve not seen a politician here stand up and mock a disabled person , the tip of the iceberg of detestable behaviour from the stain on humanity .
    OMG. Just imagine what happens when Elon and Trump inevitably fall out!
    Popcorn shortage?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304
    ydoethur said:

    Trump the peacemaker?

    US launches wave of air strikes on Yemen's Houthis
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c05mvr3j3yro

    (And that's without any admiration for the Houthis.)

    I expect lots of this from Trump. Using the US military on soft targets. Thinks it's impressive.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
    I assume you mean those comments for @RochdalePioneers but good points
    They were. But to answer him I'm not convinced that Banffshire and Buchan Coast is that reformy.
    Yes, my comments were for @RochdalePioneers. Did Reform benefit at the last GE from Douglas Ross being even more arsey than usual? Has David Duguid recovered from his illness?
    This got me thinking about unlikely political patterns across the country. Like Reform next door to the Greens and Lib Dems in East Anglia (Great Yarmouth, Waveney valley, North Norfolk).

    I drove for a weekend in Norfolk last summer and went through Labour, then Corbyn independent, then Labour, Tory, Green, Labour, Tory and finally Lib Dem. And within an inch of Reform in Yarmouth if I’d turned off the main road.

    Unlikely we’ll see a Reform Westminster seat in Scotland in the near future but it’s conceivable they could end up next door to PC in Wales. Possibly one or two Ref-LD marginals in the West Country in due course too.
    Reform is at the heart of the YouTube channel I have in preparation. We - liberal mainstream political parties - need to head them off at the pass. Significant numbers of things are broken in this country, and broken bigly. Reform at least recognise this and credit voters who say it rather than sneering / denying. So we either face into these challenges and propose significant reforms, or Reform wins.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    They're deporting people against the orders of federal courts too.
    https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2025/03/15/rhode-island-doctor-rasha-alawieh-deported-despite-federal-court-order/82441360007/

    Ultimately I think where I'm at is that Americans are going to have to choose to be a democracy or not.
    You can have all the laws and constitutions you like, but if people stand by while they're broken then they're not worth much.
    Those in government who won't follow the president at all times will be or already have been replaced. Lines were crossed before 2024 when at least half the country thought violently trying to prevent a peaceful transfer of power was ok.

    Once that was deemed acceptable why not ignore courts and more?

    Plus who knows what the SC will do.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
    I assume you mean those comments for @RochdalePioneers but good points
    They were. But to answer him I'm not convinced that Banffshire and Buchan Coast is that reformy.
    Yes, my comments were for @RochdalePioneers. Did Reform benefit at the last GE from Douglas Ross being even more arsey than usual? Has David Duguid recovered from his illness?
    This got me thinking about unlikely political patterns across the country. Like Reform next door to the Greens and Lib Dems in East Anglia (Great Yarmouth, Waveney valley, North Norfolk).

    I drove for a weekend in Norfolk last summer and went through Labour, then Corbyn independent, then Labour, Tory, Green, Labour, Tory and finally Lib Dem. And within an inch of Reform in Yarmouth if I’d turned off the main road.

    Unlikely we’ll see a Reform Westminster seat in Scotland in the near future but it’s conceivable they could end up next door to PC in Wales. Possibly one or two Ref-LD marginals in the West Country in due course too.
    Reform is at the heart of the YouTube channel I have in preparation. We - liberal mainstream political parties - need to head them off at the pass. Significant numbers of things are broken in this country, and broken bigly. Reform at least recognise this and credit voters who say it rather than sneering / denying. So we either face into these challenges and propose significant reforms, or Reform wins.
    The future path is pretty clear then.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    TimS said:

    There is space for everyone here. Well almost everyone, maybe not Saturday Russian trolls.

    But why not consume sparingly? Come to the site, read a bit of news, post some things, argue for a while, do a little trolling, but ration the post count. Like enjoying a drink without killing your liver. Consume in moderation.

    Agreed, but when did @Leon "do" anything in moderation? 😂
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,459

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
    I assume you mean those comments for @RochdalePioneers but good points
    They were. But to answer him I'm not convinced that Banffshire and Buchan Coast is that reformy.
    Yes, my comments were for @RochdalePioneers. Did Reform benefit at the last GE from Douglas Ross being even more arsey than usual? Has David Duguid recovered from his illness?
    This got me thinking about unlikely political patterns across the country. Like Reform next door to the Greens and Lib Dems in East Anglia (Great Yarmouth, Waveney valley, North Norfolk).

    I drove for a weekend in Norfolk last summer and went through Labour, then Corbyn independent, then Labour, Tory, Green, Labour, Tory and finally Lib Dem. And within an inch of Reform in Yarmouth if I’d turned off the main road.

    Unlikely we’ll see a Reform Westminster seat in Scotland in the near future but it’s conceivable they could end up next door to PC in Wales. Possibly one or two Ref-LD marginals in the West Country in due course too.
    Reform is at the heart of the YouTube channel I have in preparation. We - liberal mainstream political parties - need to head them off at the pass. Significant numbers of things are broken in this country, and broken bigly. Reform at least recognise this and credit voters who say it rather than sneering / denying. So we either face into these challenges and propose significant reforms, or Reform wins.
    People have been saying similar things for years. The question is what significant reforms?

    Because if you take the actual Reform policy agenda it means delivering spending increases while cutting tax. That’s a tricky challenge to face into. Or it’s leaving the ECHR, stopping immigration and doing Trump-style things to EDI or environmental policy, which is a choice, but not a choice most would want to make.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,161

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    They're deporting people against the orders of federal courts too.
    https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2025/03/15/rhode-island-doctor-rasha-alawieh-deported-despite-federal-court-order/82441360007/

    Ultimately I think where I'm at is that Americans are going to have to choose to be a democracy or not.
    You can have all the laws and constitutions you like, but if people stand by while they're broken then they're not worth much.
    At the end of the day, Trump won the election on a platform of delivering mass deportations and promised to use this act to do it. It's not Trump who is the threat to democracy over this.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/19/nx-s1-5156027/alien-enemies-act-1798-trump-immigration
    That’s not how a democracy with separation of powers works you absolute lunatic.

    Trump was elected as president within a system of laws. He wasn’t elected as a king
    It's a very strange thing that some British people treat the US constitution as a civic religion and venerate it even more than many Americans do.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
    I assume you mean those comments for @RochdalePioneers but good points
    They were. But to answer him I'm not convinced that Banffshire and Buchan Coast is that reformy.
    Yes, my comments were for @RochdalePioneers. Did Reform benefit at the last GE from Douglas Ross being even more arsey than usual? Has David Duguid recovered from his illness?
    This got me thinking about unlikely political patterns across the country. Like Reform next door to the Greens and Lib Dems in East Anglia (Great Yarmouth, Waveney valley, North Norfolk).

    I drove for a weekend in Norfolk last summer and went through Labour, then Corbyn independent, then Labour, Tory, Green, Labour, Tory and finally Lib Dem. And within an inch of Reform in Yarmouth if I’d turned off the main road.

    Unlikely we’ll see a Reform Westminster seat in Scotland in the near future but it’s conceivable they could end up next door to PC in Wales. Possibly one or two Ref-LD marginals in the West Country in due course too.
    Reform is at the heart of the YouTube channel I have in preparation. We - liberal mainstream political parties - need to head them off at the pass. Significant numbers of things are broken in this country, and broken bigly. Reform at least recognise this and credit voters who say it rather than sneering / denying. So we either face into these challenges and propose significant reforms, or Reform wins.
    People have been saying similar things for years. The question is what significant reforms?

    Because if you take the actual Reform policy agenda it means delivering spending increases while cutting tax. That’s a tricky challenge to face into. Or it’s leaving the ECHR, stopping immigration and doing Trump-style things to EDI or environmental policy, which is a choice, but not a choice most would want to make.
    A 21st Century Beveridge Report
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    carnforth said:

    Labour's majority not big enough:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy9dgwe1q27o

    I think that's the correct decision.

    Unlike, say, Incapacity benefit, PIP is for people with genuine disability. It's not even really tied to work from what I understand, but more it's the government saying we know you have this disability and your life will be harder and more difficult compared to most people, so here's a little bit of money to help you out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    They're deporting people against the orders of federal courts too.
    https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2025/03/15/rhode-island-doctor-rasha-alawieh-deported-despite-federal-court-order/82441360007/

    Ultimately I think where I'm at is that Americans are going to have to choose to be a democracy or not.
    You can have all the laws and constitutions you like, but if people stand by while they're broken then they're not worth much.
    At the end of the day, Trump won the election on a platform of delivering mass deportations and promised to use this act to do it. It's not Trump who is the threat to democracy over this.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/19/nx-s1-5156027/alien-enemies-act-1798-trump-immigration
    That’s not how a democracy with separation of powers works you absolute lunatic.

    Trump was elected as president within a system of laws. He wasn’t elected as a king
    I get people in America making that kind of argument, but its bloody weird to see non americans simp with that argument. Like the idea and Trump or not our separation from events should make swallowing every claim easier to avoid.

    Checks and balances was something they seemed rather proud of, now any hindrance is a threat to democracy? Its just bonkers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    GIN1138 said:

    TimS said:

    There is space for everyone here. Well almost everyone, maybe not Saturday Russian trolls.

    But why not consume sparingly? Come to the site, read a bit of news, post some things, argue for a while, do a little trolling, but ration the post count. Like enjoying a drink without killing your liver. Consume in moderation.

    Agreed, but when did @Leon "do" anything in moderation? 😂
    Moderation in moderation.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,459

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    They're deporting people against the orders of federal courts too.
    https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2025/03/15/rhode-island-doctor-rasha-alawieh-deported-despite-federal-court-order/82441360007/

    Ultimately I think where I'm at is that Americans are going to have to choose to be a democracy or not.
    You can have all the laws and constitutions you like, but if people stand by while they're broken then they're not worth much.
    At the end of the day, Trump won the election on a platform of delivering mass deportations and promised to use this act to do it. It's not Trump who is the threat to democracy over this.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/19/nx-s1-5156027/alien-enemies-act-1798-trump-immigration
    That’s not how a democracy with separation of powers works you absolute lunatic.

    Trump was elected as president within a system of laws. He wasn’t elected as a king
    Trump won the election promising to be a dictator from day one. Therefore if anyone wants to stop him being a dictator, they’re the true enemies of democracy. Innit.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,415
    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
    I assume you mean those comments for @RochdalePioneers but good points
    They were. But to answer him I'm not convinced that Banffshire and Buchan Coast is that reformy.
    Yes, my comments were for @RochdalePioneers. Did Reform benefit at the last GE from Douglas Ross being even more arsey than usual? Has David Duguid recovered from his illness?
    This got me thinking about unlikely political patterns across the country. Like Reform next door to the Greens and Lib Dems in East Anglia (Great Yarmouth, Waveney valley, North Norfolk).

    I drove for a weekend in Norfolk last summer and went through Labour, then Corbyn independent, then Labour, Tory, Green, Labour, Tory and finally Lib Dem. And within an inch of Reform in Yarmouth if I’d turned off the main road.

    Unlikely we’ll see a Reform Westminster seat in Scotland in the near future but it’s conceivable they could end up next door to PC in Wales. Possibly one or two Ref-LD marginals in the West Country in due course too.
    Reform are pretty much guaranteed to pick up list seats in next year’s Scottish elections, probably in all regions.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,915
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
    I assume you mean those comments for @RochdalePioneers but good points
    They were. But to answer him I'm not convinced that Banffshire and Buchan Coast is that reformy.
    Yes, my comments were for @RochdalePioneers. Did Reform benefit at the last GE from Douglas Ross being even more arsey than usual? Has David Duguid recovered from his illness?
    This got me thinking about unlikely political patterns across the country. Like Reform next door to the Greens and Lib Dems in East Anglia (Great Yarmouth, Waveney valley, North Norfolk).

    I drove for a weekend in Norfolk last summer and went through Labour, then Corbyn independent, then Labour, Tory, Green, Labour, Tory and finally Lib Dem. And within an inch of Reform in Yarmouth if I’d turned off the main road.

    Unlikely we’ll see a Reform Westminster seat in Scotland in the near future but it’s conceivable they could end up next door to PC in Wales. Possibly one or two Ref-LD marginals in the West Country in due course too.
    Reform is at the heart of the YouTube channel I have in preparation. We - liberal mainstream political parties - need to head them off at the pass. Significant numbers of things are broken in this country, and broken bigly. Reform at least recognise this and credit voters who say it rather than sneering / denying. So we either face into these challenges and propose significant reforms, or Reform wins.
    People have been saying similar things for years. The question is what significant reforms?

    Because if you take the actual Reform policy agenda it means delivering spending increases while cutting tax. That’s a tricky challenge to face into. Or it’s leaving the ECHR, stopping immigration and doing Trump-style things to EDI or environmental policy, which is a choice, but not a choice most would want to make.
    Defending the borders of the country is one of the main things Reform voters want.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    GIN1138 said:

    TimS said:

    There is space for everyone here. Well almost everyone, maybe not Saturday Russian trolls.

    But why not consume sparingly? Come to the site, read a bit of news, post some things, argue for a while, do a little trolling, but ration the post count. Like enjoying a drink without killing your liver. Consume in moderation.

    Agreed, but when did @Leon "do" anything in moderation? 😂
    Yeah, not really my style



  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    edited March 15

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    They're deporting people against the orders of federal courts too.
    https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2025/03/15/rhode-island-doctor-rasha-alawieh-deported-despite-federal-court-order/82441360007/

    Ultimately I think where I'm at is that Americans are going to have to choose to be a democracy or not.
    You can have all the laws and constitutions you like, but if people stand by while they're broken then they're not worth much.
    At the end of the day, Trump won the election on a platform of delivering mass deportations and promised to use this act to do it. It's not Trump who is the threat to democracy over this.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/19/nx-s1-5156027/alien-enemies-act-1798-trump-immigration
    That’s not how a democracy with separation of powers works you absolute lunatic.

    Trump was elected as president within a system of laws. He wasn’t elected as a king
    It's a very strange thing that some British people treat the US constitution as a civic religion and venerate it even more than many Americans do.
    What was untrue about what he said vs what youve implied that defying the will of the President, even if that will was unlawful, is antidemocratic?

    Venerating the US constitution is not a problem here, thinking their rules apply here is more of an issue in our media commentators.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 5,415
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France without Dupont are not THAT impressive. Yet

    Good enough to win the Six Nations though.
    Indeed

    But England are very young and full of talent, for the first time in a long long time I am optimistic

    Fin Smith is world class and then we have Marcus doing his mazey stuff, and a host of new, strong players

    And we very nearly won the Slam in the Under 20s. Hopeful signs
    There was some weird reporting after the first game, talk of England being steamrollered iirc, but it wasn't that bog a loss.
    The media (U.K.) has been in thrall to the Irish rugby team for years. The stuff around beating the all blacks, how it’s the golden generation etc. Lots of Irish legends played their last game today (for Ireland, at least). I sense they are in decline, France in the ascendant. England could be great, but the sclerotic media are awful.
    England have stamina, but insufficient skill. Scotland have skill, but insufficient stamina, nor the killer instinct. Ireland and France have both. If England and Scotland want to win the championship, they need to have stamina, skill, and the killer instinct.
    Nah, England have real skill now

    Fin Smith, Marcus Smith, the back row, there is proper world class talent

    You don't beat Wales 66-14 in CARDIFF without some serious chops

    Moreover, England are the 2nd youngest team in the 6 Nations (after Italy) and they have the most promising Under 20s (as we see from their near Slam). Ireland are now in decline, France may have peaked (Dupont is 28), I'd have England as one of THE favourites for the next world cup

    Scotland were somewhat robbed today. They are such an exciting side, they just lack the depth of talent - on the bench etc - to take them to true greatness
    Yes, I’m probably being unfair on England, and swayed by their last few years anti rugby tactics. Your comments regarding Scotland are spot on.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,161
    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    They're deporting people against the orders of federal courts too.
    https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2025/03/15/rhode-island-doctor-rasha-alawieh-deported-despite-federal-court-order/82441360007/

    Ultimately I think where I'm at is that Americans are going to have to choose to be a democracy or not.
    You can have all the laws and constitutions you like, but if people stand by while they're broken then they're not worth much.
    At the end of the day, Trump won the election on a platform of delivering mass deportations and promised to use this act to do it. It's not Trump who is the threat to democracy over this.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/19/nx-s1-5156027/alien-enemies-act-1798-trump-immigration
    That’s not how a democracy with separation of powers works you absolute lunatic.

    Trump was elected as president within a system of laws. He wasn’t elected as a king
    It's a very strange thing that some British people treat the US constitution as a civic religion and venerate it even more than many Americans do.
    What was untrue about what he said vs what youve implied that defying the will of the President, even if that will was unlawful, is antidemocratic?

    Venerating the US constitution is not a problem here, thinking their rules apply here is more of an issue in our media commentators.
    The case doesn't seem like a strong example of the Trump administration abusing its powers. Deporting someone trying to enter the country, even with an ostensibly valid visa, is not the same as grabbing someone off the street and forcibly removing them. A visa doesn't guarantee entry.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,569

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    They're deporting people against the orders of federal courts too.
    https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2025/03/15/rhode-island-doctor-rasha-alawieh-deported-despite-federal-court-order/82441360007/

    Ultimately I think where I'm at is that Americans are going to have to choose to be a democracy or not.
    You can have all the laws and constitutions you like, but if people stand by while they're broken then they're not worth much.
    At the end of the day, Trump won the election on a platform of delivering mass deportations and promised to use this act to do it. It's not Trump who is the threat to democracy over this.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/19/nx-s1-5156027/alien-enemies-act-1798-trump-immigration
    Not how democracy works.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,387
    GIN1138 said:

    carnforth said:

    Labour's majority not big enough:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy9dgwe1q27o

    I think that's the correct decision.

    Unlike, say, Incapacity benefit, PIP is for people with genuine disability. It's not even really tied to work from what I understand, but more it's the government saying we know you have this disability and your life will be harder and more difficult compared to most people, so here's a little bit of money to help you out.
    Cutting across the board did seem like a poor substitute for weedling out abuse.

    If they want to save money, charging VAT on the 20% of all new cars which are purchased by Motability would be a better start.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    edited March 15

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    France without Dupont are not THAT impressive. Yet

    Good enough to win the Six Nations though.
    Indeed

    But England are very young and full of talent, for the first time in a long long time I am optimistic

    Fin Smith is world class and then we have Marcus doing his mazey stuff, and a host of new, strong players

    And we very nearly won the Slam in the Under 20s. Hopeful signs
    There was some weird reporting after the first game, talk of England being steamrollered iirc, but it wasn't that bog a loss.
    The media (U.K.) has been in thrall to the Irish rugby team for years. The stuff around beating the all blacks, how it’s the golden generation etc. Lots of Irish legends played their last game today (for Ireland, at least). I sense they are in decline, France in the ascendant. England could be great, but the sclerotic media are awful.
    England have stamina, but insufficient skill. Scotland have skill, but insufficient stamina, nor the killer instinct. Ireland and France have both. If England and Scotland want to win the championship, they need to have stamina, skill, and the killer instinct.
    Nah, England have real skill now

    Fin Smith, Marcus Smith, the back row, there is proper world class talent

    You don't beat Wales 66-14 in CARDIFF without some serious chops

    Moreover, England are the 2nd youngest team in the 6 Nations (after Italy) and they have the most promising Under 20s (as we see from their near Slam). Ireland are now in decline, France may have peaked (Dupont is 28), I'd have England as one of THE favourites for the next world cup

    Scotland were somewhat robbed today. They are such an exciting side, they just lack the depth of talent - on the bench etc - to take them to true greatness
    Yes, I’m probably being unfair on England, and swayed by their last few years anti rugby tactics. Your comments regarding Scotland are spot on.
    Scotland nearly beat England at Twickers

    They are so close to being brilliant. In Russell, Kinghorn and Van der Merwe they have three of the best backs in the world - and they are scintillating

    I genuinely hope they can find one or two more players that knit it all together. But Russell is 32, and time is slipping

    England seem to have found that in Fin Smith (who is Scottish!). A pivotal player of great talent and calm confidence who makes an entire team gel - an English Dupont

    Now I've said this England will probably get the wooden spoon next year
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,915
    edited March 15
    Reform's membership ticker is down by about 1,000 compared to a couple of weeks ago, which oddly enough tends to indicate that it's genuine not rigged.

    https://www.reformparty.uk/counter
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,473
    rkrkrk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    They're deporting people against the orders of federal courts too.
    https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2025/03/15/rhode-island-doctor-rasha-alawieh-deported-despite-federal-court-order/82441360007/

    Ultimately I think where I'm at is that Americans are going to have to choose to be a democracy or not.
    You can have all the laws and constitutions you like, but if people stand by while they're broken then they're not worth much.
    At the end of the day, Trump won the election on a platform of delivering mass deportations and promised to use this act to do it. It's not Trump who is the threat to democracy over this.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/19/nx-s1-5156027/alien-enemies-act-1798-trump-immigration
    Not how democracy works.
    It’s not how modern liberal social democracy works.

    Worcester v. Georgia (1831)

    "John Marshall has made his decision; now let him enforce it,"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,241

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    They're deporting people against the orders of federal courts too.
    https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2025/03/15/rhode-island-doctor-rasha-alawieh-deported-despite-federal-court-order/82441360007/

    Ultimately I think where I'm at is that Americans are going to have to choose to be a democracy or not.
    You can have all the laws and constitutions you like, but if people stand by while they're broken then they're not worth much.
    At the end of the day, Trump won the election on a platform of delivering mass deportations and promised to use this act to do it. It's not Trump who is the threat to democracy over this.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/19/nx-s1-5156027/alien-enemies-act-1798-trump-immigration
    That’s not how a democracy with separation of powers works you absolute lunatic.

    Trump was elected as president within a system of laws. He wasn’t elected as a king
    It's a very strange thing that some British people treat the US constitution as a civic religion and venerate it even more than many Americans do.
    It’s a very strange thing that some venerate Trump more than does your average MAGA.

    People are indeed strange.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,182
    I see Turkey has been cleared to buy 40 Typhoon's from BAE, built in the UK. Their original plans to buy F35s were scuppered by the US Government last year. Portugal have now decided not to go through with their order of F35s because of Trump and Canada appear to be following suit.

    I guess Lockheed Martin are cursing the US Government.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526

    I see Turkey has been cleared to buy 40 Typhoon's from BAE, built in the UK. Their original plans to buy F35s were scuppered by the US Government last year. Portugal have now decided not to go through with their order of F35s because of Trump and Canada appear to be following suit.

    I guess Lockheed Martin are cursing the US Government.

    Its an Illegal Boycott!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    Andy_JS said:

    Reform's membership ticker is down by about 1,000 compared to a couple of weeks ago, which oddly enough tends to indicate that it's genuine not rigged.

    https://www.reformparty.uk/counter

    Just been reading about all this on the Rant's website. Seems Nigel is hanging Zia Yusuf out to dry for the mess.

    I always thought Farage was unlikely to serve a full five years as MP for Clacton and go into the next election as REF leader.

    If The Orange One offers him something nice to do in America, I could see him walking away...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,241
    .

    I see Turkey has been cleared to buy 40 Typhoon's from BAE, built in the UK. Their original plans to buy F35s were scuppered by the US Government last year. Portugal have now decided not to go through with their order of F35s because of Trump and Canada appear to be following suit.

    I guess Lockheed Martin are cursing the US Government.

    Its an Illegal Boycott!
    Just not cricket ?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,182

    kle4 said:

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    They're deporting people against the orders of federal courts too.
    https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2025/03/15/rhode-island-doctor-rasha-alawieh-deported-despite-federal-court-order/82441360007/

    Ultimately I think where I'm at is that Americans are going to have to choose to be a democracy or not.
    You can have all the laws and constitutions you like, but if people stand by while they're broken then they're not worth much.
    At the end of the day, Trump won the election on a platform of delivering mass deportations and promised to use this act to do it. It's not Trump who is the threat to democracy over this.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/19/nx-s1-5156027/alien-enemies-act-1798-trump-immigration
    That’s not how a democracy with separation of powers works you absolute lunatic.

    Trump was elected as president within a system of laws. He wasn’t elected as a king
    It's a very strange thing that some British people treat the US constitution as a civic religion and venerate it even more than many Americans do.
    What was untrue about what he said vs what youve implied that defying the will of the President, even if that will was unlawful, is antidemocratic?

    Venerating the US constitution is not a problem here, thinking their rules apply here is more of an issue in our media commentators.
    The case doesn't seem like a strong example of the Trump administration abusing its powers. Deporting someone trying to enter the country, even with an ostensibly valid visa, is not the same as grabbing someone off the street and forcibly removing them. A visa doesn't guarantee entry.
    The US President alone is not the sole arbiter of democracy in America. It consists of numerous different organisations, all acting together to deliver a democratic system. The Federal judges are part of that system and the President does not have the right to defy them. He can challenge them through the accepted channels but he cannot simply defy them. That is undemocratic.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,838
    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh @Leon has returned!

    Hi Sean 👍

    Sadly.

    I will be off.
    Why don't we have a vote, to see whether PB-ers, regulars and lurkers alike, would rather you or I stayed?

    Seriously. It might be interesting. If you win, fair enough - I shall bugger off for good (and I really don't know how it would go)

    Call a plebiscite!
    There is no need for anybody to leave. PB is big enough for @Leon, @BatteryCorrectHorse , and every other similar individual. Plus @Sandpit, @isam, @Charles, and everybody else who has left voluntarily.
    At least one of the voluntary leavers is here under a new name.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,473
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh @Leon has returned!

    Hi Sean 👍

    Sadly.

    I will be off.
    Why don't we have a vote, to see whether PB-ers, regulars and lurkers alike, would rather you or I stayed?

    Seriously. It might be interesting. If you win, fair enough - I shall bugger off for good (and I really don't know how it would go)

    Call a plebiscite!
    There is no need for anybody to leave. PB is big enough for @Leon, @BatteryCorrectHorse , and every other similar individual. Plus @Sandpit, @isam, @Charles, and everybody else who has left voluntarily.
    At least one of the voluntary leavers is here under a new name.
    Indeed.


  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,569
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh @Leon has returned!

    Hi Sean 👍

    Sadly.

    I will be off.
    Why don't we have a vote, to see whether PB-ers, regulars and lurkers alike, would rather you or I stayed?

    Seriously. It might be interesting. If you win, fair enough - I shall bugger off for good (and I really don't know how it would go)

    Call a plebiscite!
    There is no need for anybody to leave. PB is big enough for @Leon, @BatteryCorrectHorse , and every other similar individual. Plus @Sandpit, @isam, @Charles, and everybody else who has left voluntarily.
    At least one of the voluntary leavers is here under a new name.
    Ooh, a pb murder mystery equivalent!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,896

    I see Turkey has been cleared to buy 40 Typhoon's from BAE, built in the UK. Their original plans to buy F35s were scuppered by the US Government last year. Portugal have now decided not to go through with their order of F35s because of Trump and Canada appear to be following suit.

    I guess Lockheed Martin are cursing the US Government.

    The UK is still pursuing a joint stealth aircraft project with Turkey, as I remember, which is a very stupid idea, as Erdogan is currently supporting Hamas, and also is something of a neo-Ottomanist.
  • I see Turkey has been cleared to buy 40 Typhoon's from BAE, built in the UK. Their original plans to buy F35s were scuppered by the US Government last year. Portugal have now decided not to go through with their order of F35s because of Trump and Canada appear to be following suit.

    I guess Lockheed Martin are cursing the US Government.

    I'd be surprised if LockMart's CEO isn't out looking for a witch doctor to put a hex on Trump. Nobody is going to buy fighters (or indeed any sophisticated weapons system) that can be rendered unusable if Donald Trump feels like it on any given day.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh @Leon has returned!

    Hi Sean 👍

    Sadly.

    I will be off.
    Why don't we have a vote, to see whether PB-ers, regulars and lurkers alike, would rather you or I stayed?

    Seriously. It might be interesting. If you win, fair enough - I shall bugger off for good (and I really don't know how it would go)

    Call a plebiscite!
    There is no need for anybody to leave. PB is big enough for @Leon, @BatteryCorrectHorse , and every other similar individual. Plus @Sandpit, @isam, @Charles, and everybody else who has left voluntarily.
    At least one of the voluntary leavers is here under a new name.
    Ooo... 👀
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,348

    rkrkrk said:

    Nigelb said:

    Been coming a while.
    If the Supreme Court allows this to stand (hard to see it not reaching them), it would allow the US President to deport anyone not born in the US (citizen or not) at will.

    Trump invokes 18th-century wartime act to deport five Venezuelans
    Proclamation comes just hours after judge had ruled Alien Enemies Act of 1798 cannot be used
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/15/trump-alien-enemies-act-deportations

    They're deporting people against the orders of federal courts too.
    https://eu.providencejournal.com/story/news/local/2025/03/15/rhode-island-doctor-rasha-alawieh-deported-despite-federal-court-order/82441360007/

    Ultimately I think where I'm at is that Americans are going to have to choose to be a democracy or not.
    You can have all the laws and constitutions you like, but if people stand by while they're broken then they're not worth much.
    At the end of the day, Trump won the election on a platform of delivering mass deportations and promised to use this act to do it. It's not Trump who is the threat to democracy over this.

    https://www.npr.org/2024/10/19/nx-s1-5156027/alien-enemies-act-1798-trump-
    immigration
    A vote does not give you the right to break the law or ignore the courts
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686

    Simon Schama
    @simon_schama
    ·
    4h
    Something 1848-ish is unfolding on the streets of eastern Europe: Belgrade, Bucharest, Budapest against authoritarianism and corruption - is anyone noticing this 3B spring?

    https://x.com/simon_schama/status/1900982973337325676
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    GIN1138 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh @Leon has returned!

    Hi Sean 👍

    Sadly.

    I will be off.
    Why don't we have a vote, to see whether PB-ers, regulars and lurkers alike, would rather you or I stayed?

    Seriously. It might be interesting. If you win, fair enough - I shall bugger off for good (and I really don't know how it would go)

    Call a plebiscite!
    There is no need for anybody to leave. PB is big enough for @Leon, @BatteryCorrectHorse , and every other similar individual. Plus @Sandpit, @isam, @Charles, and everybody else who has left voluntarily.
    At least one of the voluntary leavers is here under a new name.
    Ooo... 👀
    What's the point of coming here if one doesn't want a range of views and debates and photos of foreign knapping?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,161
    https://x.com/tenreirodaniel/status/1900963212197032341

    I’ve said this a lot privately but I’m not sure I’ve said it on here. Trump and Elon are both extremely strange figures of world-historic consequence. Neither had ever met someone they could relate to until they met each other, and they’re in love.

    All the cynical readings of the relationship miss this key truth
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304
    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Leon said:

    C'mon Scotland!

    I've lived here now for 4 years. And that is still my reaction every time I come home from trips abroad (which includes England)
    I am amazed it is 4 years since you moved to Scotland

    How time flies and good you are settled in ' God's own country' as my wife and Scots would say

    Also interested you are standing for Holyrood in what will be a fascinating election next year
    Especially as you will be standing in the most Reform friendly part of Scotland. Incidentally, whenever I visit Fraserburgh, it seems like a throwback to the 1950s. Any connection between that and the local support for Reform?
    I assume you mean those comments for @RochdalePioneers but good points
    They were. But to answer him I'm not convinced that Banffshire and Buchan Coast is that reformy.
    Yes, my comments were for @RochdalePioneers. Did Reform benefit at the last GE from Douglas Ross being even more arsey than usual? Has David Duguid recovered from his illness?
    This got me thinking about unlikely political patterns across the country. Like Reform next door to the Greens and Lib Dems in East Anglia (Great Yarmouth, Waveney valley, North Norfolk).

    I drove for a weekend in Norfolk last summer and went through Labour, then Corbyn independent, then Labour, Tory, Green, Labour, Tory and finally Lib Dem. And within an inch of Reform in Yarmouth if I’d turned off the main road.

    Unlikely we’ll see a Reform Westminster seat in Scotland in the near future but it’s conceivable they could end up next door to PC in Wales. Possibly one or two Ref-LD marginals in the West Country in due course too.
    Reform is at the heart of the YouTube channel I have in preparation. We - liberal mainstream political parties - need to head them off at the pass. Significant numbers of things are broken in this country, and broken bigly. Reform at least recognise this and credit voters who say it rather than sneering / denying. So we either face into these challenges and propose significant reforms, or Reform wins.
    People have been saying similar things for years. The question is what significant reforms?

    Because if you take the actual Reform policy agenda it means delivering spending increases while cutting tax. That’s a tricky challenge to face into. Or it’s leaving the ECHR, stopping immigration and doing Trump-style things to EDI or environmental policy, which is a choice, but not a choice most would want to make.
    They're an anti-immigrant party. The only 'reform' that would cut their legs off is stopping immigration. But it would be wrong to do that just to combat RUK. It's their policy informed by their values. They should have to win an election in order to implement it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,241
    Came across this guy’s story today.
    Quite extraordinary.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Witold_Pilecki
    As a youth, Pilecki joined Polish underground scouting; in the aftermath of World War I, he joined the Polish militia and, later, the Polish Army. He participated in the Polish–Soviet War, which ended in 1921.

    In 1939, he participated in the unsuccessful defense of Poland against the invasion by Nazi Germany, the Slovak Republic, and the Soviet Union. Shortly afterward, he joined the Polish resistance, co-founding the Secret Polish Army resistance movement.

    In 1940, Pilecki volunteered to allow himself to be captured by the occupying Germans in order to infiltrate the Auschwitz concentration camp. At Auschwitz, he organized a resistance movement that eventually included hundreds of inmates, and he secretly drew up reports detailing German atrocities at the camp, which were smuggled out to Home Army headquarters and shared with the Western Allies.

    After eventually escaping from Auschwitz in April 1943, Pilecki fought in the Warsaw Uprising of August–October 1944. Following its suppression, he was interned in a German prisoner-of-war camp.

    After the communist takeover of Poland, he remained loyal to the London-based Polish government-in-exile. In 1945, he returned to Poland to report to the government-in-exile on the situation in Poland. Before returning, Pilecki compiled his previous reports into Witold's Report to detail his Auschwitz experiences, anticipating that he might be killed by Poland's new communist authorities. In 1947, he was arrested by the secret police on charges of working for "foreign imperialism" and, after being subjected to torture and a show trial, was executed in 1948…
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304

    https://x.com/tenreirodaniel/status/1900963212197032341

    I’ve said this a lot privately but I’m not sure I’ve said it on here. Trump and Elon are both extremely strange figures of world-historic consequence. Neither had ever met someone they could relate to until they met each other, and they’re in love.

    All the cynical readings of the relationship miss this key truth

    Folie a deux.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    Andy_JS said:

    Reform's membership ticker is down by about 1,000 compared to a couple of weeks ago, which oddly enough tends to indicate that it's genuine not rigged.

    https://www.reformparty.uk/counter

    Interesting. Wonder what Kemi Badenoch has to say about that?

    Thanks for sharing. I do like this sort of follow-up on a story.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,896
    John Curtice seems to think that Reform have hit a 25% ceiling, and are being negatively affected by Trump, according to a GB News article.

    There's also an amusing postscript.

    To add to Nigel Farage's woes, Trump is increasingly perceived as an unreliable partner, with the number of Britons who still see the US as either a ‘friend and ally’ or ‘friendly rival’ to Britain and other European countries falling from 67 per cent to 53 per cent in a recent YouGov Poll.

    Adding further weight to Curtice's assessment, one insider tells GB News that Reform is keeping a close eye on developments across the Atlantic as the party has largely tied its fate to that of Trump's by spearheading a similar project.

    They told us: "I think one of the things that's going to make life a lot easier for us is that because of what's happened in America, we can say by the next election that if Trump gets away with a third of what he's proposing, we will be able to point to America and say to voters: 'look, it works'."



  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,838

    https://x.com/tenreirodaniel/status/1900963212197032341

    I’ve said this a lot privately but I’m not sure I’ve said it on here. Trump and Elon are both extremely strange figures of world-historic consequence. Neither had ever met someone they could relate to until they met each other, and they’re in love.

    All the cynical readings of the relationship miss this key truth

    Who can forget this Elon:


  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686

    John Curtice seems to think that Reform have hit a 25% ceiling, and are being negatively affected by Trump, according to a GB News article.

    There's also an amusing postscript.

    To add to Nigel Farage's woes, Trump is increasingly perceived as an unreliable partner, with the number of Britons who still see the US as either a ‘friend and ally’ or ‘friendly rival’ to Britain and other European countries falling from 67 per cent to 53 per cent in a recent YouGov Poll.

    Adding further weight to Curtice's assessment, one insider tells GB News that Reform is keeping a close eye on developments across the Atlantic as the party has largely tied its fate to that of Trump's by spearheading a similar project.

    They told us: "I think one of the things that's going to make life a lot easier for us is that because of what's happened in America, we can say by the next election that if Trump gets away with a third of what he's proposing, we will be able to point to America and say to voters: 'look, it works'."



    "gets away with" is telling there.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    rcs1000 said:

    https://x.com/tenreirodaniel/status/1900963212197032341

    I’ve said this a lot privately but I’m not sure I’ve said it on here. Trump and Elon are both extremely strange figures of world-historic consequence. Neither had ever met someone they could relate to until they met each other, and they’re in love.

    All the cynical readings of the relationship miss this key truth

    Who can forget this Elon:


    Elon's been on quite a journey...
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    edited March 15

    John Curtice seems to think that Reform have hit a 25% ceiling, and are being negatively affected by Trump, according to a GB News article.

    There's also an amusing postscript.

    To add to Nigel Farage's woes, Trump is increasingly perceived as an unreliable partner, with the number of Britons who still see the US as either a ‘friend and ally’ or ‘friendly rival’ to Britain and other European countries falling from 67 per cent to 53 per cent in a recent YouGov Poll.

    Adding further weight to Curtice's assessment, one insider tells GB News that Reform is keeping a close eye on developments across the Atlantic as the party has largely tied its fate to that of Trump's by spearheading a similar project.

    They told us: "I think one of the things that's going to make life a lot easier for us is that because of what's happened in America, we can say by the next election that if Trump gets away with a third of what he's proposing, we will be able to point to America and say to voters: 'look, it works'."



    The question is, can Lab and especially Con do anything to get a good chunk of that 25% back in their own columns?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 4,484
    rkrkrk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh @Leon has returned!

    Hi Sean 👍

    Sadly.

    I will be off.
    Why don't we have a vote, to see whether PB-ers, regulars and lurkers alike, would rather you or I stayed?

    Seriously. It might be interesting. If you win, fair enough - I shall bugger off for good (and I really don't know how it would go)

    Call a plebiscite!
    There is no need for anybody to leave. PB is big enough for @Leon, @BatteryCorrectHorse , and every other similar individual. Plus @Sandpit, @isam, @Charles, and everybody else who has left voluntarily.
    At least one of the voluntary leavers is here under a new name.
    Ooh, a pb murder mystery equivalent!
    I can see the Meta 'Quest' VR goggles now. Who is that mysterious stranger? Why are they 'just asking the the question' about B.A pilots? We walk round a shadowy corner to be confronted by....

    :: insert Eastenders drumroll ::
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 140
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh @Leon has returned!

    Hi Sean 👍

    Sadly.

    I will be off.
    Why don't we have a vote, to see whether PB-ers, regulars and lurkers alike, would rather you or I stayed?

    Seriously. It might be interesting. If you win, fair enough - I shall bugger off for good (and I really don't know how it would go)

    Call a plebiscite!
    On topic, haven't we learned our lesson that nothing good (and especially, no group closure) comes from such things?
    lol

    But we are surely as sophisicated as the Swiss, and they handle referenderrr just fine

    I'm quite serious. Several of the mods want me to fuck off once and for all, they've made it plain with relentless bans on any pretext. Also, while I was away this time I became notably more productive, saw more friends, was nicer with my family and actually felt a little bit happier - not having pointless arguments with people I will never meet. My mood was sweeter. There was also a price, I was less informed about the latest news and politics, but right now, in our troubled times, that could be seen as a boon

    So let's have a fun vote. If people want me to go so people like @CorrectHorseBattery can stay, then I will accept the verdict with grace (I hope) and depart this here parish for good

    Might be an amusing way to pass a Sunday on PB
    Battery whatever who posts endlessly and drearily about phone masts disappearing would not trouble me. No need for a vote.

    But this site has missed a lot of interesting U.K. stories with its obsession with Trump and Reform, which is a shame, and may account for quite a number of interesting posters disappearing.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    Jeez. He's signed his own MAGA cap.


    Republicans against Trump
    @RpsAgainstTrump
    ·
    4m
    The White House released photos of Donald Trump watching U.S. military forces strike Houthi targets in Yemen earlier today.

    https://x.com/RpsAgainstTrump/status/1901051455492014359
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    edited March 15
    AnthonyT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh @Leon has returned!

    Hi Sean 👍

    Sadly.

    I will be off.
    Why don't we have a vote, to see whether PB-ers, regulars and lurkers alike, would rather you or I stayed?

    Seriously. It might be interesting. If you win, fair enough - I shall bugger off for good (and I really don't know how it would go)

    Call a plebiscite!
    On topic, haven't we learned our lesson that nothing good (and especially, no group closure) comes from such things?
    lol

    But we are surely as sophisicated as the Swiss, and they handle referenderrr just fine

    I'm quite serious. Several of the mods want me to fuck off once and for all, they've made it plain with relentless bans on any pretext. Also, while I was away this time I became notably more productive, saw more friends, was nicer with my family and actually felt a little bit happier - not having pointless arguments with people I will never meet. My mood was sweeter. There was also a price, I was less informed about the latest news and politics, but right now, in our troubled times, that could be seen as a boon

    So let's have a fun vote. If people want me to go so people like @CorrectHorseBattery can stay, then I will accept the verdict with grace (I hope) and depart this here parish for good

    Might be an amusing way to pass a Sunday on PB
    Battery whatever who posts endlessly and drearily about phone masts disappearing would not trouble me. No need for a vote.

    But this site has missed a lot of interesting U.K. stories with its obsession with Trump and Reform, which is a shame, and may account for quite a number of interesting posters disappearing.
    I think the site editors do a good job in creating the thread headers day in and day out. Given we're four years from both UK and US elections it must be hard work.

    Trump and his lunatic behaviour must be a daily source of "material" lol... Otherwise we'd just be talking about AV and B**X*T ad nauseam! 😂

    What goes on "below the line" is another matter, but the comments and general discussion is way better that it was from 2016 to 2019 at least (IMO)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,896
    We have spoken about Trump an awful lot this week, it's true, and as I've not had much work to do I've also been a guilty party.

    However, we are at an absolutely seminal moment in world affairs, where the U S. slipping even into a Hungarian-style, semi-autocracy, would change things for all of us, forever.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    edited March 15
    GIN1138 said:

    John Curtice seems to think that Reform have hit a 25% ceiling, and are being negatively affected by Trump, according to a GB News article.

    There's also an amusing postscript.

    To add to Nigel Farage's woes, Trump is increasingly perceived as an unreliable partner, with the number of Britons who still see the US as either a ‘friend and ally’ or ‘friendly rival’ to Britain and other European countries falling from 67 per cent to 53 per cent in a recent YouGov Poll.

    Adding further weight to Curtice's assessment, one insider tells GB News that Reform is keeping a close eye on developments across the Atlantic as the party has largely tied its fate to that of Trump's by spearheading a similar project.

    They told us: "I think one of the things that's going to make life a lot easier for us is that because of what's happened in America, we can say by the next election that if Trump gets away with a third of what he's proposing, we will be able to point to America and say to voters: 'look, it works'."



    The question is, can Lab and especially Con do anything to get a good chunk of that 25% back in their own columns?
    No, unless they commit to deport immigrants and scrap net zero and leave the ECHR, which is not happening unless say Jenrick replaced Kemi if she lost the next GE and Farage didn't become PM either
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,165
    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    FF43 said:

    MattW said:

    FF43 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    In other military industrial complex news, I note that Trump's new Secretary of the Navy has designated Virginia hulls 814 and 815 (the first Block IV boats which were going to the the Australian Navy's new build Virginias) as the USS Pontiac and the USS Norfolk (obviously a Partridge fan).

    Hard luck, Aussies. Best of luck getting your money back.

    It does look like Australia would be best served by abandoning the AUKUS submarines and going back to a French one, on grounds of availability, cost and suitability and possibly also shared national interest in the Pacific region given Trump's antics.
    I can't call that. The Virginia Classes are not due for delivery until the early 2030s, which is very post-Trump.

    Nor is it clear that the diesel boats they would get from France would do the job now, or if the French would now be ready to supply nuclear boats. IIRC that was one reason they stopped it, others being horrific cost escalation and feeling that they were being bent over and shafted with a very crusty bagette.

    Would a new French programme be any better, and when would it deliver?

    OTOH I'm not sure what the status of Oz is in the new USA Alone world; they are on the receiving end of the planned pivot, whilst we are on the losing end.

    They have options - I'm not a "submarine knowlegeable" person but our build rate is I think one submarine per 3 years (ish), and they take 8-10 years to build, so that may be able to be accelerated over a number of years to create two or three extras in current conditions.

    (Nor am I sure how "sovereign" our nuclear-tech is. I think we had to have new laws passed in the USA around sharing of nuclear - not missile - technology that we have under our 1958 agreement with the USA.)

    I'm not sure on any of that. They certainly need to have a think and take a view.
    The deal AIUI is three to five Virginia class submarines followed by five boats from the SSN-AUKUS joint venture that will act as a UK replacement to Astute.

    The Australians are highly unlikely to get any Virginias and SSN-AUKUS must be doubtful given they haven't even finished Astute yet and will follow on with a very delayed Dreadnought programme before possibly initiating an Astute replacement. The Australians run a significant risk of not getting any submarines at all through AUKUS.

    The French design is ready to build if the Australians go for the nuclear version rather than a diesel variant.

    https://warontherocks.com/2025/03/when-it-comes-to-submarines-australia-is-going-to-be-left-high-and-dry/
    He's pushing it a bit :smiley: .

    On the Virginias the Australians have quite a strong hand, as the USA wants use of their new submarine base which is part of the programme.

    Currently aiui on the construction side we have Astute 6 in the water to be commissioned later this year, Astute 7 due for commissioning in 2026, and 3 Dreadnaughts under construction at different stages (the first one already in the hall having its hull put together from modules).

    The thing with the challenges is the next generation nuclear reactor at RR.
    He does appear to be grinding an axe but I would find it difficult to argue (while lacking expertise) against his two substantive points: That Australia is unlikely to get any Virginias as long as USA has a big shortfall. That there must be a lot of doubt Astute will be replaced at all in any planning horizon. In which case what's the point of SSN AUKUS from an Australian perspective against choosing a French sub that is at least realistic?
    In hindsight what Australia should have done was persisted with the conventionally powered Attack class. Even if it were 5 years late, they still would have started getting them before 2030. The cost would have been relatively low compared to the AUKUS harlequinade AND the cost of the now necessary Collins class lifex.

    If they wanted to do nuclear powered after that, then it could have been pursued in a less fraught manner perhaps in a multi-national coalition with India or the UK.

    As things stand now the situation is a) they have to be able to out-lobby the USN to get their Virginias and b) hope that the dream combination of BAE, the MoD and nuclear propulsion don't result in significant delays to the Dreadnought program.
  • AnthonyTAnthonyT Posts: 140
    GIN1138 said:

    AnthonyT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh @Leon has returned!

    Hi Sean 👍

    Sadly.

    I will be off.
    Why don't we have a vote, to see whether PB-ers, regulars and lurkers alike, would rather you or I stayed?

    Seriously. It might be interesting. If you win, fair enough - I shall bugger off for good (and I really don't know how it would go)

    Call a plebiscite!
    On topic, haven't we learned our lesson that nothing good (and especially, no group closure) comes from such things?
    lol

    But we are surely as sophisicated as the Swiss, and they handle referenderrr just fine

    I'm quite serious. Several of the mods want me to fuck off once and for all, they've made it plain with relentless bans on any pretext. Also, while I was away this time I became notably more productive, saw more friends, was nicer with my family and actually felt a little bit happier - not having pointless arguments with people I will never meet. My mood was sweeter. There was also a price, I was less informed about the latest news and politics, but right now, in our troubled times, that could be seen as a boon

    So let's have a fun vote. If people want me to go so people like @CorrectHorseBattery can stay, then I will accept the verdict with grace (I hope) and depart this here parish for good

    Might be an amusing way to pass a Sunday on PB
    Battery whatever who posts endlessly and drearily about phone masts disappearing would not trouble me. No need for a vote.

    But this site has missed a lot of interesting U.K. stories with its obsession with Trump and Reform, which is a shame, and may account for quite a number of interesting posters disappearing.
    I think the site editors do a good job in creating the thread headers day in and day out. Given we're four years from both UK and US elections it must be hard work.

    Trump and his lunatic behaviour must be a daily source of "material" lol... Otherwise we'd just be talking about AV and B**X*T ad nauseam! 😂
    Not criticising the editors, especially as they also work. But the BTL posters are missing lots of stories.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    He's an asset, Part 514:

    Laura Rozen
    @lrozen

    Looks like Trump let Russia veto one of his negotiators, the one Fiona Hill said was more knowledgeable on Russia than others on Trump team

    https://x.com/lrozen/status/1901004815578394670
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    edited March 15
    AnthonyT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AnthonyT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh @Leon has returned!

    Hi Sean 👍

    Sadly.

    I will be off.
    Why don't we have a vote, to see whether PB-ers, regulars and lurkers alike, would rather you or I stayed?

    Seriously. It might be interesting. If you win, fair enough - I shall bugger off for good (and I really don't know how it would go)

    Call a plebiscite!
    On topic, haven't we learned our lesson that nothing good (and especially, no group closure) comes from such things?
    lol

    But we are surely as sophisicated as the Swiss, and they handle referenderrr just fine

    I'm quite serious. Several of the mods want me to fuck off once and for all, they've made it plain with relentless bans on any pretext. Also, while I was away this time I became notably more productive, saw more friends, was nicer with my family and actually felt a little bit happier - not having pointless arguments with people I will never meet. My mood was sweeter. There was also a price, I was less informed about the latest news and politics, but right now, in our troubled times, that could be seen as a boon

    So let's have a fun vote. If people want me to go so people like @CorrectHorseBattery can stay, then I will accept the verdict with grace (I hope) and depart this here parish for good

    Might be an amusing way to pass a Sunday on PB
    Battery whatever who posts endlessly and drearily about phone masts disappearing would not trouble me. No need for a vote.

    But this site has missed a lot of interesting U.K. stories with its obsession with Trump and Reform, which is a shame, and may account for quite a number of interesting posters disappearing.
    I think the site editors do a good job in creating the thread headers day in and day out. Given we're four years from both UK and US elections it must be hard work.

    Trump and his lunatic behaviour must be a daily source of "material" lol... Otherwise we'd just be talking about AV and B**X*T ad nauseam! 😂
    Not criticising the editors, especially as they also work. But the BTL posters are missing lots of stories.
    I edited my post at the last moment and yeah I will say what goes on "below the line" is another matter, but the comments and general discussion is way better that it was from 2016 to 2019 at least (IMO)

    Things got VERY nasty, then. Even I got drawn in on occasion and one time I was actually horrid to @Big_G_NorthWales to my eternal shame! 😢
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    Trump shuts Radio Free Europe.

    Putin opens another bottle.

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,387

    Trump shuts Radio Free Europe.

    Putin opens another bottle.

    BBC World Service should see an uptick then.

    Does British Soft Power benefit from Trump overall?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    edited March 15

    Trump shuts Radio Free Europe.

    Putin opens another bottle.

    I thought we'd be free of the Orange One and his craziness for the weekend as he'd be dividing his time between golf and "oranging" ?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,387
    GIN1138 said:

    Trump shuts Radio Free Europe.

    Putin opens another bottle.

    I thought we'd be free of the Orange One and his craziness for the weekend as he's be dividing his time between golf and "oranging" ?
    His minions though...
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,348
    AnthonyT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    AnthonyT said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Oh @Leon has returned!

    Hi Sean 👍

    Sadly.

    I will be off.
    Why don't we have a vote, to see whether PB-ers, regulars and lurkers alike, would rather you or I stayed?

    Seriously. It might be interesting. If you win, fair enough - I shall bugger off for good (and I really don't know how it would go)

    Call a plebiscite!
    On topic, haven't we learned our lesson that nothing good (and especially, no group closure) comes from such things?
    lol

    But we are surely as sophisicated as the Swiss, and they handle referenderrr just fine

    I'm quite serious. Several of the mods want me to fuck off once and for all, they've made it plain with relentless bans on any pretext. Also, while I was away this time I became notably more productive, saw more friends, was nicer with my family and actually felt a little bit happier - not having pointless arguments with people I will never meet. My mood was sweeter. There was also a price, I was less informed about the latest news and politics, but right now, in our troubled times, that could be seen as a boon

    So let's have a fun vote. If people want me to go so people like @CorrectHorseBattery can stay, then I will accept the verdict with grace (I hope) and depart this here parish for good

    Might be an amusing way to pass a Sunday on PB
    Battery whatever who posts endlessly and drearily about phone masts disappearing would not trouble me. No need for a vote.

    But this site has missed a lot of interesting U.K. stories with its obsession with Trump and Reform, which is a shame, and may account for quite a number of interesting posters disappearing.
    I think the site editors do a good job in creating the thread headers day in and day out. Given we're four years from both UK and US elections it must be hard work.

    Trump and his lunatic behaviour must be a daily source of "material" lol... Otherwise we'd just be talking about AV and B**X*T ad nauseam! 😂
    Not criticising the editors, especially as they
    also work. But the BTL posters are missing lots of stories.
    Why don’t you post them then
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686

    Deborah Meaden 🇺🇦
    @DeborahMeaden
    ·
    3h
    The Putin Trump alliance has done more to unify Europe than any movement yet… I have said it before…they have overplayed their hand and one day we will be thankful for it.

    https://x.com/DeborahMeaden/status/1900999110511014290
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,165

    I see Turkey has been cleared to buy 40 Typhoon's from BAE, built in the UK. Their original plans to buy F35s were scuppered by the US Government last year. Portugal have now decided not to go through with their order of F35s because of Trump and Canada appear to be following suit.

    I guess Lockheed Martin are cursing the US Government.

    I'd be surprised if LockMart's CEO isn't out looking for a witch doctor to put a hex on Trump. Nobody is going to buy fighters (or indeed any sophisticated weapons system) that can be rendered unusable if Donald Trump feels like it on any given day.
    Turkiye already has F-35, six of them, it's just that they are locked up in hangar at Luke AFB and they can't get back the $1.4bn they paid for them. The Senate kicked them out of the F-35 program because they bought the Russian S-400 SAM system. Which was really just a cipher for Turkiye not being particularly helpful to Israel. So they've experienced the protection racket once before, hence interest in Typhoon.

    It's good news for SKS because it means he probably won't have to buy any more for the RAF as an industrial Personal Independent Payment to BAE.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,692
    edited March 15
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    John Curtice seems to think that Reform have hit a 25% ceiling, and are being negatively affected by Trump, according to a GB News article.

    There's also an amusing postscript.

    To add to Nigel Farage's woes, Trump is increasingly perceived as an unreliable partner, with the number of Britons who still see the US as either a ‘friend and ally’ or ‘friendly rival’ to Britain and other European countries falling from 67 per cent to 53 per cent in a recent YouGov Poll.

    Adding further weight to Curtice's assessment, one insider tells GB News that Reform is keeping a close eye on developments across the Atlantic as the party has largely tied its fate to that of Trump's by spearheading a similar project.

    They told us: "I think one of the things that's going to make life a lot easier for us is that because of what's happened in America, we can say by the next election that if Trump gets away with a third of what he's proposing, we will be able to point to America and say to voters: 'look, it works'."



    The question is, can Lab and especially Con do anything to get a good chunk of that 25% back in their own columns?
    No, unless they commit to deport immigrants and scrap net zero and leave the ECHR, which is not happening unless say Jenrick replaced Kemi if she lost the next GE and Farage didn't become PM either
    It won't be officially scrapped but I think there's a decent chance SKS may "delay" Net Zero until 2060 or 2070?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    carnforth said:

    Trump shuts Radio Free Europe.

    Putin opens another bottle.

    BBC World Service should see an uptick then.

    Does British Soft Power benefit from Trump overall?
    I saw them play a couple of times back in the day. One of the great Prog Rock acts.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    edited March 15
    GIN1138 said:

    Trump shuts Radio Free Europe.

    Putin opens another bottle.

    I thought we'd be free of the Orange One and his craziness for the weekend as he'd be dividing his time between golf and "oranging" ?
    Swing at a golf ball.

    Miss.

    Get very angry.

    Phone some kid in DOGE and tell him to shut another agency.

    Feel better.

  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,182
    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Turkey has been cleared to buy 40 Typhoon's from BAE, built in the UK. Their original plans to buy F35s were scuppered by the US Government last year. Portugal have now decided not to go through with their order of F35s because of Trump and Canada appear to be following suit.

    I guess Lockheed Martin are cursing the US Government.

    I'd be surprised if LockMart's CEO isn't out looking for a witch doctor to put a hex on Trump. Nobody is going to buy fighters (or indeed any sophisticated weapons system) that can be rendered unusable if Donald Trump feels like it on any given day.
    Turkiye already has F-35, six of them, it's just that they are locked up in hangar at Luke AFB and they can't get back the $1.4bn they paid for them. The Senate kicked them out of the F-35 program because they bought the Russian S-400 SAM system. Which was really just a cipher for Turkiye not being particularly helpful to Israel. So they've experienced the protection racket once before, hence interest in Typhoon.

    It's good news for SKS because it means he probably won't have to buy any more for the RAF as an industrial Personal Independent Payment to BAE.
    Would it not be a good idea for him to buy lots more rather than American bricks?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,025

    John Curtice seems to think that Reform have hit a 25% ceiling, and are being negatively affected by Trump, according to a GB News article.

    There's also an amusing postscript.

    To add to Nigel Farage's woes, Trump is increasingly perceived as an unreliable partner, with the number of Britons who still see the US as either a ‘friend and ally’ or ‘friendly rival’ to Britain and other European countries falling from 67 per cent to 53 per cent in a recent YouGov Poll.

    Adding further weight to Curtice's assessment, one insider tells GB News that Reform is keeping a close eye on developments across the Atlantic as the party has largely tied its fate to that of Trump's by spearheading a similar project.

    They told us: "I think one of the things that's going to make life a lot easier for us is that because of what's happened in America, we can say by the next election that if Trump gets away with a third of what he's proposing, we will be able to point to America and say to voters: 'look, it works'."

    75% of Brits already regard Reform as shits, charlatans and chancers.

    The other 25% will gradually get there.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290

    John Curtice seems to think that Reform have hit a 25% ceiling, and are being negatively affected by Trump, according to a GB News article.

    There's also an amusing postscript.

    To add to Nigel Farage's woes, Trump is increasingly perceived as an unreliable partner, with the number of Britons who still see the US as either a ‘friend and ally’ or ‘friendly rival’ to Britain and other European countries falling from 67 per cent to 53 per cent in a recent YouGov Poll.

    Adding further weight to Curtice's assessment, one insider tells GB News that Reform is keeping a close eye on developments across the Atlantic as the party has largely tied its fate to that of Trump's by spearheading a similar project.

    They told us: "I think one of the things that's going to make life a lot easier for us is that because of what's happened in America, we can say by the next election that if Trump gets away with a third of what he's proposing, we will be able to point to America and say to voters: 'look, it works'."

    75% of Brits already regard Reform as shits, charlatans and chancers.

    The other 25% will gradually get there.
    The 22% still voting Tory would also mostly take Farage over Starmer on a forced choice
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    'There are just three nations that Britain can truly trust. The US is not one of them
    We must form a solid alliance with the three nations we can actually trust. And it would be a huge vote winner for the PM...

    With how many nations do we have such a bond, an alliance so instinctive and automatic that it needs no explanation? The list is a short one, but it surely includes the three countries with whom we truly do have a special relationship, namely Australia, Canada and New Zealand.

    We are linked by language, culture and kinship. We share a legal system, drawing on one another’s precedents. We have similar parliamentary forms, complete with maces, state openings, green benches, the works. We salute the same king.

    The modern campaign to knit the four chief realms into a closer association was launched in British Columbia in 2015, and goes under the acronym CANZUK, a term first coined by UN officials because the four nations almost always voted en bloc.'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/03/15/canzuk-uk-australia-canada-nz-not-usa-alliance/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,161
    I didn’t realise Russell Brand was still that big:

    https://x.com/realjakebroe/status/1900803940175778303
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,165

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see Turkey has been cleared to buy 40 Typhoon's from BAE, built in the UK. Their original plans to buy F35s were scuppered by the US Government last year. Portugal have now decided not to go through with their order of F35s because of Trump and Canada appear to be following suit.

    I guess Lockheed Martin are cursing the US Government.

    I'd be surprised if LockMart's CEO isn't out looking for a witch doctor to put a hex on Trump. Nobody is going to buy fighters (or indeed any sophisticated weapons system) that can be rendered unusable if Donald Trump feels like it on any given day.
    Turkiye already has F-35, six of them, it's just that they are locked up in hangar at Luke AFB and they can't get back the $1.4bn they paid for them. The Senate kicked them out of the F-35 program because they bought the Russian S-400 SAM system. Which was really just a cipher for Turkiye not being particularly helpful to Israel. So they've experienced the protection racket once before, hence interest in Typhoon.

    It's good news for SKS because it means he probably won't have to buy any more for the RAF as an industrial Personal Independent Payment to BAE.
    Would it not be a good idea for him to buy lots more rather than American bricks?
    What for? What are they going to do with them?

    The RAF is currently optimised around a fast jet fleet of 7 x Typhoon squadron and 2 x F-35 squadron. To increase that significantly means all of the supporting systems such as the training pipeline, AWACS, tankers, bases, etc. have to scale as well. Otherwise they would just be buying them and putting them straight into storage at St Athan to serve as a source of free spare parts. A situation with historical precedent...

    More Typhoon with conformals, AESA, thrust vectoring, the aerodynamic kit, etc. might be a good idea if GCAP/Tempest falls apart (and ideally the blame can be placed elsewhere) but at the moment every quid spend on Typhoon is a quid not spent on Tempest which already only funded to a minor fraction of what it's actually going need.
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