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Has Donald Trump killed Scottish nationalism stone dead? – politicalbetting.com

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  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,965
    edited March 15

    Why would about 70% be accepted? In France those percentages are reversed.

    The fact remains that this is against the interests of the local population and if you believe in democracy then you can't ignore that.
    So what do you suggest?

    Do you think we should refuse to help people who are in danger in their own country?

    The local population around me is generally welcoming of people seeking asylum. Some aren't. But there are always some who are uncharitable. Low on empathy.

    PS I've checked the figures. It is about 50% in the UK and France who are accepted.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,161
    I’m not sure what the underlying data for this is but it’s a striking projection:

    https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1900862559646818740

    Reform projected to win Durham council

    🟣 REF 70 (+70)
    🔴 LAB 15 (-38)
    🟠 LD 9 (-8)
    🔵 CON 4 (-20)

    Via @ElectCalculus, 1-10 Mar (+/- vs 2021)
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639
    Barnesian said:

    The best and cheapest and most humane solution is immediate processing. About 30% will be returned and 70% will be accepted as genuine asylum seekers.

    These will enter the jobs and housing markets, paying taxes and doing useful work, including, in some cases, helping to build houses.

    What do you suggest?
    I strongly doubt whether 70% are asylum seekers, and if they are, then the bar is set far too low. Finger in the air: about 2% should genuinely be offered asylum.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,752
    MattW said:

    My best recommendation for listening today, a Foreign Affairs interview with Fiona Hill (not Theresa May's Fiona Hill -the other one),

    She's a Bishop Auckland lass (from a mining family) who was a senior adviser to the first Trump Administration as Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for European and Russian Affairs. She is now working as a key adviser to the British Government, and has been Chancellor of Durham Uni.

    Very candid, and a lovely accent. @Taz will enjoy.

    "Fiona Hill: What Does Trump See in Putin? | Foreign Affairs Interview"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxfrJ5smAU8

    I've listened to the full interview now, and yes - well worth it. Very pithy, and distils things our conversations have touched on.

    Two interesting points to mention, from many others:

    1 - The irony that the USA thought Russia would move towards the way the West does things in the 1990s, and now the USA is moving towards the way Russia does things.

    2 - There is a parallel between the rapid collapse of State process Russia went through, and the process of rapid destruction of the State Trump & his backers are putting the USA through now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,308
    F1: forecast updated, now expecting heavy rain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290

    I can't say I've seen much evidence of Vance's intelligence myself. Are we sure that this isn't one of those things that everyone says without stopping to think why it's the case?
    Read this article by Vance which could easily be in an academic journal or broadsheet paper.

    https://thelampmagazine.com/blog/how-i-joined-the-resistance

    You certainly couldn’t imagine Trump writing that, much beyond his usual block capital tweets or tabloid headlines

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212

    I’m not sure what the underlying data for this is but it’s a striking projection:

    https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1900862559646818740

    Reform projected to win Durham council

    🟣 REF 70 (+70)
    🔴 LAB 15 (-38)
    🟠 LD 9 (-8)
    🔵 CON 4 (-20)

    Via @ElectCalculus, 1-10 Mar (+/- vs 2021)

    Just rejoice at that news.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,896
    MattW said:

    I've listened to the full interview now, and yes - well worth it. Very pithy, and distils things our conversations have touched on.

    Two interesting points to mention, from many others:

    1 - The irony that the USA thought Russia would move towards the way the West does things in the 1990s, and now the USA is moving towards the way Russia does things.

    2 - There is a parallel between the rapid collapse of State process Russia went through, and the process of rapid destruction of the State Trump & his backers are putting the USA through now.
    And the link between the two is 1990's disaster capitalism, as mentioned earlier. Russia was a laboratory for all this, and the tech-heads love Rees-Mogg's book of the same era, as mentioned earliet.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290

    I’m not sure what the underlying data for this is but it’s a striking projection:

    https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1900862559646818740

    Reform projected to win Durham council

    🟣 REF 70 (+70)
    🔴 LAB 15 (-38)
    🟠 LD 9 (-8)
    🔵 CON 4 (-20)

    Via @ElectCalculus, 1-10 Mar (+/- vs 2021)

    Ex mining areas are surging to Reform
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,752

    There is that Hillbilly Elegy book, which is generally considered to be not pulp.

    Also, Thiel rates him, and Thiel.is bright

    And interesting 2009 "how I got here" essay by Thiel (quite short):

    "The Education of a Libertarian"

    But I must confess that over the last two decades, I have changed radically on the question of how to achieve these goals. Most importantly, I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible. By tracing out the development of my thinking, I hope to frame some of the challenges faced by all classical liberals today.

    https://www.cato-unbound.org/2009/04/13/peter-thiel/education-libertarian/
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    HYUFD said:

    Labour have put taxes up, just on farmers and business owners
    Employer NI wouldn't have been a route I would have followed, but I have no problem with 20% inheritance tax for properties over £3m. The Government need to be looking at wealth taxes too. Why are Labour so timid?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    HYUFD said:

    Vance is far more intelligent than Trump though and doesn’t need to face the voters for 3 and a half years
    My point is that Trump still needs the votes of, for example, Republican senators - for now. He has them because he is popular enough and Republican elected officials are afraid to oppose him. In a year or two there might be a quasi-dictatorship in the US, and the president may no longer need Congress. I think it's better that Vance replaces Trump before we reach that point, because I think Vance will face more opposition if he tries to claim, as Trump is doing, "l'etat c'est moi."
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212

    There were several plans, actually. One was to move non-critical COVID cases there. Another was to (as you say) empty the hospitals of those who didn’t need complex medical care.
    The whole thing was pretty stupid really.

    They should have used the money to re-open old hospitals, nursing homes etc., and made them into respiratory hospitals, taking Covid out of the existing NHS. Care there would have been at a more specialised but lower expertise (in other areas) level. It would also have fufilled Boris's manifesto pledge to open new hospitals and most could have been retained as additional nursing homes (the absence of which is a huge bed blocker for the NHS), or indeed hospitals.

    At the very very beginning of Covid (the post is on PB) I did a bit of historical research and found that during the Spanish flu epidemic, the best outcomes were for those in 'fresh air hospitals' - where they were kept warm under blankets but windows were wide open - they were even outside sometimes. Nobody learns from the past - it was only at the end of Covid that ventilation became a buzzword.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,404

    Employer NI wouldn't have been a route I would have followed, but I have no problem with 20% inheritance tax for properties over £3m. The Government need to be looking at wealth taxes too. Why are Labour so timid?
    Because either a wealth tax includes housing and it's politically disastrous or it doesn't and raises pennies at the cost of huge damage to the economy as the wealthy move their business, shares, etc out of the country.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585

    @Roger re Harranty Part 3 The last bit!

    If Hanratty was innocent, as I suspect, he was probably framed. France, with whom Hanratty was lodging at the time, would in that case be implicated. The murder weapon was found soon after Hanratty became a suspect. It was wrapped in one of his handkerchiefs and found stuffed down the back seat of a local bus. France wrote a number of letters concerning the crime in the wake of Hanratty’s conviction. Some of these have never been made public. He committed suicide shortly before Hanratty was hanged.
    I am sure nobody will now ever know for certain who killed Michael Gregston. The DNA evidence does not, in my opinion, give a definitive answer on that one. It does however pretty much eliminate the possibility of enquiries ever being reopened. One the whole, I believe that is probably a good thing.

    This must be my longest ever post on PB. Hope you enjoyed it.

    That is an excellent detailed summary Peter. I read Foot's book whilst still at school. Hanratty was a bad 'un but the case against Alphon is quite compelling. Dodgy DNA evidence seems to have definitively killed Foot's narrative, but I too believe Foot had it right.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,752
    edited March 15

    I can't say I've seen much evidence of Vance's intelligence myself. Are we sure that this isn't one of those things that everyone says without stopping to think why it's the case?
    He's intelligent, regardless of what we think of him. A summa cum laude from Yale; summa cum laude is usually top 2% or 5%.

    In 2007, Vance left the military and used the G.I. Bill to study political science and philosophy at Ohio State University. He graduated in 2009 with a Bachelor of Arts, summa cum laude. Vance then attended Yale Law School, where he was a member of The Yale Law Journal. (Wiki)

    So call it the equivalent of an Oxford PPE 1st - like Ed Davey :smile: .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,195

    There is that Hillbilly Elegy book, which is generally considered to be not pulp.

    Also, Thiel rates him, and Thiel.is bright

    "Yee-haw! What's on your mind, Hillbilly?" :lol:
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,896
    MattW said:

    And interesting 2009 "how I got here" essay by Thiel (quite short):

    "The Education of a Libertarian"

    But I must confess that over the last two decades, I have changed radically on the question of how to achieve these goals. Most importantly, I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible. By tracing out the development of my thinking, I hope to frame some of the challenges faced by all classical liberals today.

    https://www.cato-unbound.org/2009/04/13/peter-thiel/education-libertarian/
    Extraordinary, really. The last paragraph there, after all the warm words, is absolutely a clear manifesto for techno-supremacism over democracy, and a clear megalomaniacal undertow that he, himself, is that future.

    What a troubled individual he is.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447
    HYUFD said:

    Ex mining areas are surging to Reform
    Late converts to Thatcherism.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    Fishing said:

    Because either a wealth tax includes housing and it's politically disastrous or it doesn't and raises pennies at the cost of huge damage to the economy as the wealthy move their business, shares, etc out of the country.
    The primary domestic dwelling could easily be exempted.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,195

    I can't say I've seen much evidence of Vance's intelligence myself. Are we sure that this isn't one of those things that everyone says without stopping to think why it's the case?
    Intelligent or not, he should read up on how the Ukraine war started.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,241
    MattW said:

    He's intelligent, regardless of what we think of him. A summa cum laude from Yale; summa cum laude is usually top 2% or 5%.

    In 2007, Vance left the military and used the G.I. Bill to study political science and philosophy at Ohio State University. He graduated in 2009 with a Bachelor of Arts, summa cum laude. Vance then attended Yale Law School, where he was a member of The Yale Law Journal. (Wiki)

    So call it the equivalent of an Oxford PPE 1st - like Ed Davey :smile: .
    Several sandwiches short of a picnic, though.

    JD Vance says the ideas that led to the founding of America were formed in Europe, “the cradle of Western Civilization” and that he is trying to help save them from “suicide.”
    https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1900708053051445349
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074
    https://canschluss.ca/

    Someone has coined the term Canschluss.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585

    I’m not sure what the underlying data for this is but it’s a striking projection:

    https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1900862559646818740

    Reform projected to win Durham council

    🟣 REF 70 (+70)
    🔴 LAB 15 (-38)
    🟠 LD 9 (-8)
    🔵 CON 4 (-20)

    Via @ElectCalculus, 1-10 Mar (+/- vs 2021)

    Labour and the Conservatives need to be painting Reform in general and Farage in particular as agents of MAGA and hence the enemy within.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447

    The whole thing was pretty stupid really.

    They should have used the money to re-open old hospitals, nursing homes etc., and made them into respiratory hospitals, taking Covid out of the existing NHS. Care there would have been at a more specialised but lower expertise (in other areas) level. It would also have fufilled Boris's manifesto pledge to open new hospitals and most could have been retained as additional nursing homes (the absence of which is a huge bed blocker for the NHS), or indeed hospitals.

    At the very very beginning of Covid (the post is on PB) I did a bit of historical research and found that during the Spanish flu epidemic, the best outcomes were for those in 'fresh air hospitals' - where they were kept warm under blankets but windows were wide open - they were even outside sometimes. Nobody learns from the past - it was only at the end of Covid that ventilation became a buzzword.
    Still the problem of staffing though, for these "respiratory hospitals".

    The reason other activity slowed was internal staff redeployment. Both Mrs Foxy and I were redeployed to ICU, away from our regular work.

    It takes time to expand capacity, and staff capacity is the limiting factor rather than buildings or machines.

    We couldn't double the size of our Navy or Air Force in a few weeks either, it takes years. Other health systems generally had more capacity than an NHS that always runs Hot.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177

    The primary domestic dwelling could easily be exempted.
    I sometimes wonder if people are deliberately looking for ways to stoke the housing market.....
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447
    edited March 15
    Nigelb said:

    Several sandwiches short of a picnic, though.

    JD Vance says the ideas that led to the founding of America were formed in Europe, “the cradle of Western Civilization” and that he is trying to help save them from “suicide.”
    https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1900708053051445349
    Very little understanding of The Enlightenment in his head.

    I think he is intelligent, but knows that he needs to play to his base. He is a human chameleon, and the worst sort of cynic.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,161
    Extraordinary image of Trudeau being comforted by the Governor General after his resignation:

    https://x.com/jonliedtke/status/1900593945907790189
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,896
    MattW said:

    And interesting 2009 "how I got here" essay by Thiel (quite short):

    "The Education of a Libertarian"

    But I must confess that over the last two decades, I have changed radically on the question of how to achieve these goals. Most importantly, I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible. By tracing out the development of my thinking, I hope to frame some of the challenges faced by all classical liberals today.

    https://www.cato-unbound.org/2009/04/13/peter-thiel/education-libertarian/
    There's also, unremarked by most, a quite extraordinary level of misogyny, in there.

    He seems to think that women are a key reason why democracy can't work.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526

    https://canschluss.ca/

    Someone has coined the term Canschluss.

    Proposing that Canada "Join the EU". Well, Australia joined Eurovision so why not...

    In practice the only one that has any obvious value is "Sign mutual defence treaties with the UK and France". Indeed - both countries have obvious historical centuries-old ties to Canada. Hi America, please don't mess with our friend, our SSBNs don't have to target Russia, they can target you...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    Mortimer said:

    I sometimes wonder if people are deliberately looking for ways to stoke the housing market.....
    If you want to include primary property within a wealth taxation programme, fill your boots.😁
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    Foxy said:

    Late converts to Thatcherism.
    They still won’t vote Tory because of Thatcher, those voting Reform are doing so to oppose net zero and slash immigration
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,308
    Betting Post

    F1: a few things interesting but I've gone for 2.25 on under 17.5 classified finishers. This has happened at the last three races and there's half a dozen rookies on the grid plus a forecast of heavy rain.

    https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/03/australian-grand-prix-2025-pre-race.html
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177

    If you want to include primary property within a wealth taxation programme, fill your boots.😁
    Probably the only thing that would start a revolution in this country.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447

    Labour and the Conservatives need to be painting Reform in general and Farage in particular as agents of MAGA and hence the enemy within.
    Nah, let them win Durham and be exposed. The sooner that happens the better.

    If Durham wants the Face Eating Leopards Party, who are we to argue?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062

    Just rejoice at that news.
    Would certainly be dramatic. If you can break 30-35% in locals you can clean up if you are fortunate.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,241
    Foxy said:

    Very little understanding of The Enlightenment in his head.

    I think he is intelligent, but knows that he needs to play to his base. He is a human chameleon, and the worst sort of cynic.
    The replies below that post need to be seen to be believed, though.
    I spent a good ten minutes adding to my blocked list.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447
    HYUFD said:

    They still won’t vote Tory because of Thatcher, those voting Reform are doing so to oppose net zero and slash immigration
    I don't think Durham council can do either of those things.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290

    Employer NI wouldn't have been a route I would have followed, but I have no problem with 20% inheritance tax for properties over £3m. The Government need to be looking at wealth taxes too. Why are Labour so timid?
    Wealth taxes at least hot mansions and shares, the family farm tax hits crops and farmland. Though I oppose both
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062

    Extraordinary image of Trudeau being comforted by the Governor General after his resignation:

    https://x.com/jonliedtke/status/1900593945907790189

    He shouldn't be sad, his party (and possibly his legacy as a result) have been saved by his resignation (and an unhealthy dose of Trump).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,161
    Foxy said:

    Nah, let them win Durham and be exposed. The sooner that happens the better.

    If Durham wants the Face Eating Leopards Party, who are we to argue?
    How would you expose them, with reference to problems like this?

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/24598981.refugees-moved-london-county-durham/

    Refugees are being abandoned in the North East with no support and without council knowledge, an investigation by The Northern Echo can reveal.

    Many of the refugees being shipped to County Durham speak little English and are being put in homes which are not suitable for use – one family had no gas or electricity when they arrived in a house that had not been occupied for years.

    The practice has been slammed as “absolutely abhorrent” and “immoral” as the North East struggles with a housing crisis of its own with 75,000 families stuck for months waiting for social housing, more than 300 homeless children and County Durham rent rising 7 per cent in the last year alone.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526

    I’m not sure what the underlying data for this is but it’s a striking projection:

    https://x.com/leftiestats/status/1900862559646818740

    Reform projected to win Durham council

    🟣 REF 70 (+70)
    🔴 LAB 15 (-38)
    🟠 LD 9 (-8)
    🔵 CON 4 (-20)

    Via @ElectCalculus, 1-10 Mar (+/- vs 2021)

    I can't stress the point enough - nobody out there in the real world gives a toss about the Westminster bubble story which is Rupert Lowe.

    70 Fukers to take a large majority on Durham Council. As a multiple-times losing candidate at borough council, county council and general election levels I salute anyone who puts themself forward for any party. But I do wonder who these 70 would be, and if any of them are able to actually run a county council.

    In any election you get what you vote for (and usually that isn't me...). And so often in council elections you are voting for low information low skills people to be dictated to by the council officers. Reform rightly point out that things are broken, but they need to have a policy agenda which is legal and viable and deliverable by the 70 people they have rounded up off the street to win these seats...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062

    There's also, unremarked by most, a quite extraordinary level of misogyny, in there.

    He seems to think that women are a key reason why democracy can't work.
    When someone is that loopy misogyny is a not uncommon additional element, even when there's no connection.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,308
    F1: also, keep an eye on the start time. Apparently the FIA are looking at altering when the race starts due to the chance of a thunderstorm. I'm sure it'll change if I get up on time, and stay the same if I oversleep.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,241
    Mortimer said:

    Probably the only thing that would start a revolution in this country.
    The Liberals tried it in 1910.
    https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-failure-of-the-land-value-tax/

    @ydoethur can probably judge how accurate that article is better than I can. But it seems to have been part of what set them on the road to irrelevance.
  • Reform has support because of immigration.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,459
    Mortimer said:

    Probably the only thing that would start a revolution in this country.
    Not if it offsets reductions in income tax. The idea behind a comprehensive land value tax is that it would first replace council tax, business rates and SDLT, then over time could be ramped up in synch with reducing first NI then income tax.

    In any case those with property wealth are generally a bit old and frail to get involved in a revolution.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,752
    Nigelb said:

    Several sandwiches short of a picnic, though.

    JD Vance says the ideas that led to the founding of America were formed in Europe, “the cradle of Western Civilization” and that he is trying to help save them from “suicide.”
    https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1900708053051445349
    Yes. Top universities have quite a segment of population who are highly intelligent and very stupid at the same time.

    (Said the Bradford University Graduate.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    edited March 15
    kamski said:

    My point is that Trump still needs the votes of, for example, Republican senators - for now. He has them because he is popular enough and Republican elected officials are afraid to oppose him. In a year or two there might be a quasi-dictatorship in the US, and the president may no longer need Congress. I think it's better that Vance replaces Trump before we reach that point, because I think Vance will face more opposition if he tries to claim, as Trump is doing, "l'etat c'est moi."
    US has a constitution with a Congress and the Supreme Court, judges for whom Congress also appoints, to remove them and become a dictator Trump would need the military but they take an oath to the constitution and president
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074
    MattW said:

    My best recommendation for listening today, a Foreign Affairs interview with Fiona Hill (not Theresa May's Fiona Hill -the other one),

    She's a Bishop Auckland lass (from a mining family) who was a senior adviser to the first Trump Administration as Deputy Assistant to the President and Senior Director for European and Russian Affairs. She is now working as a key adviser to the British Government, and has been Chancellor of Durham Uni.

    Very candid, and a lovely accent. @Taz will enjoy.

    "Fiona Hill: What Does Trump See in Putin? | Foreign Affairs Interview"

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxfrJ5smAU8

    That is an excellent interview.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,177
    edited March 15
    Barnesian said:

    So what do you suggest?

    Do you think we should refuse to help people who are in danger in their own country?

    The local population around me is generally welcoming of people seeking asylum. Some aren't. But there are always some who are uncharitable. Low on empathy.

    PS I've checked the figures. It is about 50% in the UK and France who are accepted.
    This is one of the least self aware, low on empathy posts I have seen on PB for a while.

    Classing that those who don't want to see their neighbourhoods changed, their local hotels transformed into asylum hostels, their competition for public services grow etc as uncharitable is just bafflingly out of touch.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062

    I can't stress the point enough - nobody out there in the real world gives a toss about the Westminster bubble story which is Rupert Lowe.

    70 Fukers to take a large majority on Durham Council. As a multiple-times losing candidate at borough council, county council and general election levels I salute anyone who puts themself forward for any party. But I do wonder who these 70 would be, and if any of them are able to actually run a county council.

    In any election you get what you vote for (and usually that isn't me...). And so often in council elections you are voting for low information low skills people to be dictated to by the council officers. Reform rightly point out that things are broken, but they need to have a policy agenda which is legal and viable and deliverable by the 70 people they have rounded up off the street to win these seats...
    If the party is defined by a certain pugnacious attitude then personality breakdown is highly likely.

    The most Trumpy and Refomy of my acquaintances was aware of the Lowe business and on Farages side as better able to have mass appeal.

    But in general i think the impact of the fallout may be more on candidates standing than voteshare. Could have an effect, but if they get nominations in should still do ok.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    edited March 15
    HYUFD said:

    US has a constitution with a Congress and the Supreme Court, judges for whom Congress also appoints, to remove both and become a dictator Trump would need the military but they take an oath to the constitution and president
    Lots of people take an oath to the constitution, Trump is demanding personal loyalty and he is getting it even if it means clearing out those with wider loyalties.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,195

    Proposing that Canada "Join the EU". Well, Australia joined Eurovision so why not...

    In practice the only one that has any obvious value is "Sign mutual defence treaties with the UK and France". Indeed - both countries have obvious historical centuries-old ties to Canada. Hi America, please don't mess with our friend, our SSBNs don't have to target Russia, they can target you...
    Closest EU territory to Canada?

    St Pierre et Miquelon

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Pierre_and_Miquelon
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290

    Reform has support because of immigration.

    Which ironically Rishi tightened the visa requirements for more than Boris, yet it was the former who leaked to Reform once Brexit had got done and Boris been replaced
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    HYUFD said:

    US has a constitution with a Congress and the Supreme Court, judges for whom Congress also appoints, to remove them and become a dictator Trump would need the military but they take an oath to the constitution and president
    Most countries have constitutions. Here's the first line of Russia's:

    Russia is a democratic federal law-bound state with a republican form of government.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    edited March 15
    kle4 said:

    He shouldn't be sad, his party (and possibly his legacy as a result) have been saved by his resignation (and an unhealthy dose of Trump).
    Not entirely, Carney has already scrapped Trudeau’s unpopular carbon tax
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,195
    Mortimer said:

    This is one of the least self aware, low on empathy posts I have seen on PB for a while.

    Classing that those who don't want to see their neighbourhoods changed, their local hotels transformed into asylum hostels, their competition for public services grow etc as uncharitable is just bafflingly out of touch.
    And if they destroy their passports, how can we tell if they truly are "in danger in their own country"?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526

    How would you expose them, with reference to problems like this?

    https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/24598981.refugees-moved-london-county-durham/

    Refugees are being abandoned in the North East with no support and without council knowledge, an investigation by The Northern Echo can reveal.

    Many of the refugees being shipped to County Durham speak little English and are being put in homes which are not suitable for use – one family had no gas or electricity when they arrived in a house that had not been occupied for years.

    The practice has been slammed as “absolutely abhorrent” and “immoral” as the North East struggles with a housing crisis of its own with 75,000 families stuck for months waiting for social housing, more than 300 homeless children and County Durham rent rising 7 per cent in the last year alone.
    You'd expose them because (a) Durham Council doesn't set this policy and can't change it, (b) Durham Council doesn't own the rathole houses these poor sods are dumped into, and (c) Reform's policy will almost certainly be that the asylum seekers shouldn't be there to start with.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    kamski said:

    Most countries have constitutions. Here's the first line of Russia's:

    Russia is a democratic federal law-bound state with a republican form of government.
    Yes, worth remembering any time people oversell the benefits of codifying our constitution. Its not a magic wand to solve problems of political culture.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,473

    The whole thing was pretty stupid really.

    They should have used the money to re-open old hospitals, nursing homes etc., and made them into respiratory hospitals, taking Covid out of the existing NHS. Care there would have been at a more specialised but lower expertise (in other areas) level. It would also have fufilled Boris's manifesto pledge to open new hospitals and most could have been retained as additional nursing homes (the absence of which is a huge bed blocker for the NHS), or indeed hospitals.

    At the very very beginning of Covid (the post is on PB) I did a bit of historical research and found that during the Spanish flu epidemic, the best outcomes were for those in 'fresh air hospitals' - where they were kept warm under blankets but windows were wide open - they were even outside sometimes. Nobody learns from the past - it was only at the end of Covid that ventilation became a buzzword.
    It was a relatively small amount of money.

    There aren’t huge numbers of empty hospitals waiting to be returned to service. A few are derelict buildings awaiting demolition, but they would take epic amounts of money and time to do anything with - that’s why they are being developed.

    On ventilation - you are flat wrong. It was clear, right from the start that capacity to provide breathing assistance was critical. The changes from emphasis on full ventilation to breathing assistance. And that was fairly early on - which was why plans to mass produce ventilators were discarded in favour of less invasive techniques.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,348
    kle4 said:

    I dont think rUK would do the latter in fairness, but then again we're doing the former instead.
    No, we’re really not.

    A majority of voters in the Indy Ref voted to stay part of the UK. Their democratically expressed views need to be respected. After a period of time - say a generation - it will be fair to ask again, but the revote campaign started about a week after the last referendum
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    kamski said:

    Most countries have constitutions. Here's the first line of Russia's:

    Russia is a democratic federal law-bound state with a republican form of government.
    Well Russia does still have multi party elections, judges and a President
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074

    The interests of the local population seem to come last in either case. Either we put them up in hotels at great expense or let them compete against locals in the job and housing markets.
    What a bizarre view. You seem to think that more people is inherently a problem. Yet the most economically active parts of the country are those with the highest population density.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062

    No, we’re really not.

    A majority of voters in the Indy Ref voted to stay part of the UK. Their democratically expressed views need to be respected. After a period of time - say a generation - it will be fair to ask again, but the revote campaign started about a week after the last referendum
    If thats what Scotland wants to do thats on them. If they keep voting in the SNP the debate wont go away. The UK doesnt have to grant another one but if they have a parliament id give it a lot of weight. Unfortunately with Labours swift decline a pro indy majority still looks favourable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,161

    You'd expose them because (a) Durham Council doesn't set this policy and can't change it, (b) Durham Council doesn't own the rathole houses these poor sods are dumped into, and (c) Reform's policy will almost certainly be that the asylum seekers shouldn't be there to start with.
    If their policy is (c), how would it 'expose them' to override their wishes and continue to dump asylum seekers on them? All that would do is highlight the need to elect a national government willing to change the policy at the national level.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,526
    kle4 said:

    If the party is defined by a certain pugnacious attitude then personality breakdown is highly likely.

    The most Trumpy and Refomy of my acquaintances was aware of the Lowe business and on Farages side as better able to have mass appeal.

    But in general i think the impact of the fallout may be more on candidates standing than voteshare. Could have an effect, but if they get nominations in should still do ok.
    Sure! People are aware. But unless Reform fracture into pieces the party will still be there, still fielding candidates, and will still attract votes.

    The Farage/Lowe spat may not be very nice. But go find me someone who thinks the country is broken, likes Farage, wants someone to fix their lives and then decides "well the Farage/Lowe spat wasn't very nice, so instead of voting for my own interests I'll vote Tory or Labour again even though they've done nothing."

    Nobody cares. When push comes to shove if Reform are there they will hoover up the votes. We can't combat them by trying to turn a spat into a Westminster bubble crisis. We need to listen to people like Reform do, empathise with them like Reform do, and then offer them simple policies like Reform do - but actually make them effective.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,752

    I can't stress the point enough - nobody out there in the real world gives a toss about the Westminster bubble story which is Rupert Lowe.

    70 Fukers to take a large majority on Durham Council. As a multiple-times losing candidate at borough council, county council and general election levels I salute anyone who puts themself forward for any party. But I do wonder who these 70 would be, and if any of them are able to actually run a county council.

    In any election you get what you vote for (and usually that isn't me...). And so often in council elections you are voting for low information low skills people to be dictated to by the council officers. Reform rightly point out that things are broken, but they need to have a policy agenda which is legal and viable and deliverable by the 70 people they have rounded up off the street to win these seats...
    How to they predict that? Is it just by total % numbers?

    My claim that Reform will not do very well on the Ashfield County Seats is because they pretty much all have majorities of 30-50% of the vote for the Ashfield Independents. They will make progress, but I don't see that toppling in one bite.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,161

    What a bizarre view. You seem to think that more people is inherently a problem. Yet the most economically active parts of the country are those with the highest population density.
    You're not thinking about the interests of the individuals affected. Whether it's better for GDP overall or better for the Treasury isn't the point.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    HYUFD said:

    Well Russia does still have multi party elections, judges and a President
    You've always seemed to place great weight on the trappings of democratic structures rather than the reality. I'll never forget the argument the Long Parliament being purged made no real difference to 'Parliament' deciding things afterwards.

    No one mention Pride's Purge to Trump.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074
    HYUFD said:

    Vance is far more intelligent than Trump though and doesn’t need to face the voters for 3 and a half years
    Trump never has to face the voters again as he’s term-limited. Vance would want a second term. Thus Vance might pay more attention to his shrinking polling than Trump.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    MattW said:

    How to they predict that? Is it just by total % numbers?

    My claim that Reform will not do very well on the Ashfield County Seats is because they pretty much all have majorities of 30-50% of the vote for the Ashfield Independents. They will make progress, but I don't see that toppling in one bite.
    Reform seem to go for a tipping point strategy, but it does mean they could again get little.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    kle4 said:

    If thats what Scotland wants to do thats on them. If they keep voting in the SNP the debate wont go away. The UK doesnt have to grant another one but if they have a parliament id give it a lot of weight. Unfortunately with Labours swift decline a pro indy majority still looks favourable.
    Most Labour leakage in Scotland has been to Reform and the LDs not the SNP
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062

    Sure! People are aware. But unless Reform fracture into pieces the party will still be there, still fielding candidates, and will still attract votes.

    The Farage/Lowe spat may not be very nice. But go find me someone who thinks the country is broken, likes Farage, wants someone to fix their lives and then decides "well the Farage/Lowe spat wasn't very nice, so instead of voting for my own interests I'll vote Tory or Labour again even though they've done nothing."

    Nobody cares. When push comes to shove if Reform are there they will hoover up the votes. We can't combat them by trying to turn a spat into a Westminster bubble crisis. We need to listen to people like Reform do, empathise with them like Reform do, and then offer them simple policies like Reform do - but actually make them effective.
    I agree, my point was merely whether party squabbling (which most pay littke attention to) could mess up nominations. If not, theyll do fine.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,336
    Foxy said:

    Nah, let them win Durham and be exposed. The sooner that happens the better.

    If Durham wants the Face Eating Leopards Party, who are we to argue?
    Totally agree. Also I suspect they will be fighting like the rats that they are before the first year is out. There will likely be a few independent offshoots. I also suspect there social media will be dripping in sewage for all to see.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074
    Cookie said:

    I strongly doubt whether 70% are asylum seekers, and if they are, then the bar is set far too low. Finger in the air: about 2% should genuinely be offered asylum.
    Based on what? Three of the top 5 countries for asylum seekers are Syria, Iran and Afghanistan. Do you doubt that people have good reasons to flee those countries?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163
    HYUFD said:

    Well Russia does still have multi party elections, judges and a President
    Exactly. And Russian is not a democracy.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    If their policy is (c), how would it 'expose them' to override their wishes and continue to dump asylum seekers on them? All that would do is highlight the need to elect a national government willing to change the policy at the national level.
    What policy / law do you change to stop desperate landlords unable to find local tenants solving a problem that London councils want solved
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,530

    That is an excellent detailed summary Peter. I read Foot's book whilst still at school. Hanratty was a bad 'un but the case against Alphon is quite compelling. Dodgy DNA evidence seems to have definitively killed Foot's narrative, but I too believe Foot had it right.
    Thanks Pete.

    I suspect Foot knew more than he was able to say publicly.

    The problem with dissing the DNA evidence is that it kind of implies an establishment cover up, and I'm always reluctant to go down that route without evidence. On the other hand, there are so many unexplained anomolies in the case against Hanratty.

    Case not proven, as the Scots might say,
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447

    Sure! People are aware. But unless Reform fracture into pieces the party will still be there, still fielding candidates, and will still attract votes.

    The Farage/Lowe spat may not be very nice. But go find me someone who thinks the country is broken, likes Farage, wants someone to fix their lives and then decides "well the Farage/Lowe spat wasn't very nice, so instead of voting for my own interests I'll vote Tory or Labour again even though they've done nothing."

    Nobody cares. When push comes to shove if Reform are there they will hoover up the votes. We can't combat them by trying to turn a spat into a Westminster bubble crisis. We need to listen to people like Reform do, empathise with them like Reform do, and then offer them simple policies like Reform do - but actually make them effective.
    Yes but the policies offered need to be realistic, and Reforms clearly are not, and do not have to be. It's the Brexit issue all over again.

    Voters no longer are interested in reality, they are now all postmodernists denying the existence of objective truths. They want to belive the fantasy.
  • Based on what? Three of the top 5 countries for asylum seekers are Syria, Iran and Afghanistan. Do you doubt that people have good reasons to flee those countries?
    How much longer will we even be willing to ask that question, instead of "do we have good reasons to admit them" :( ?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,404

    The primary domestic dwelling could easily be exempted.
    Then it wouldn't raise much but would destroy the already damaged private rental market, hitting the young and poor the most.

    There's no easy way to raise the already record tax burden - if there were, the rapacious Labour Party or the only slightly less greedy Conservatives would have tried it to exhaustion and beyond.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    kamski said:

    Exactly. And Russian is not a democracy.
    It is, it has multi party parliamentary and presidential elections even if not a perfect one.

    For most of the 20th century Russia and indeed Ukraine too were one party communist dictatorships under the USSR and before that under the absolute monarchy of the Tsars
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447

    Totally agree. Also I suspect they will be fighting like the rats that they are before the first year is out. There will likely be a few independent offshoots. I also suspect there social media will be dripping in sewage for all to see.
    Yes, while Durham would be in chaos that is better than Westminster in 2029 being filled by the same noddies.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,212
    Foxy said:

    Still the problem of staffing though, for these "respiratory hospitals".

    The reason other activity slowed was internal staff redeployment. Both Mrs Foxy and I were redeployed to ICU, away from our regular work.

    It takes time to expand capacity, and staff capacity is the limiting factor rather than buildings or machines.

    We couldn't double the size of our Navy or Air Force in a few weeks either, it takes years. Other health systems generally had more capacity than an NHS that always runs Hot.
    Yes, I agree with that. Staffing would have still been the issue. I do think though that more might have been tempted back into the NHS proper, particularly from the retired cohort, if Covid had not been such an all-consuming factor.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447
    HYUFD said:

    It is, it has multi party parliamentary and presidential elections even if not a perfect one.

    For most of the 20th century Russia and indeed Ukraine too were one party communist dictatorships under the USSR and before that under the absolute monarchy of the Tsars
    Presumably you think Iran and North Korea are also democracies.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,336
    Foxy said:

    Yes, while Durham would be in chaos that is better than Westminster in 2029 being filled by the same noddies.
    Yes, it also might teach the voters a lesson in critical thinking as well.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    HYUFD said:

    It is, it has multi party parliamentary and presidential elections even if not a perfect one.
    You are falling for the game authoritarians play. "See, we have (unfair) elections, therefore we're basically the same as you".

    If its not a free or fair system it hardly matters if they just make up the votes or bulky/kill to merely depress opposition vote share.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074

    You're not thinking about the interests of the individuals affected. Whether it's better for GDP overall or better for the Treasury isn't the point.
    People living in London, like me, are affected by London’s population density, and we benefit from it. Elon Musk, who you seem to like, goes on about the importance of a growing population. More people can be a boon for everyone, not a cost.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    Foxy said:

    Yes but the policies offered need to be realistic, and Reforms clearly are not, and do not have to be. It's the Brexit issue all over again.

    Voters no longer are interested in reality, they are now all postmodernists denying the existence of objective truths. They want to belive the fantasy.
    Most local government choices are a) very constrained by law or available finance, and b) not strictly ideological.

    So it does make a difference who voters pick, but not as dramatically as parties pretend.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,195
    HYUFD said:

    It is, it has multi party parliamentary and presidential elections even if not a perfect one.

    For most of the 20th century Russia and indeed Ukraine too were one party communist dictatorships under the USSR and before that under the absolute monarchy of the Tsars
    Russia's Freedom House rating is Not Free.

    https://freedomhouse.org/country/russia
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,161

    People living in London, like me, are affected by London’s population density, and we benefit from it. Elon Musk, who you seem to like, goes on about the importance of a growing population. More people can be a boon for everyone, not a cost.
    How about if we round up all the gammons from the north of England and house them in your district of London instead. Would you see it as a boon?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,062
    Just had a conversation with relatives. Starmer is a monster trying to start WW3, our children shouldnt fight wars, Trump was controlling Putin quite well before but not now, and some Russian mystic has very accurate predictions of the future its spookily accurate.

    They seem to be talking their way into Trump support 'he's awful and unstable but he doesnt start wars and is for peace'.

    Used to be (maybe still are) Corbynite.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,348

    Powell in particular seems to have had a very big role. He's got very long experience in negotiations, dating all the way back to Blair and Northern Ireland. Mandelson is also a similarly experienced fixer.

    All much more experienced and adept, than
    Sunak, or Johnson's team.
    His brother, Charles, played the same role for Thatcher - so Jonathan has been leveraging a direct experience of the subject spans 50+ years.

  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,336
    kle4 said:

    Just had a conversation with relatives. Starmer is a monster trying to start WW3, our children shouldnt fight wars, Trump was controlling Putin quite well before but not now, and some Russian mystic has very accurate predictions of the future its spookily accurate.

    They seem to be talking their way into Trump support 'he's awful and unstable but he doesnt start wars and is for peace'.

    Used to be (maybe still are) Corbynite.

    No offence, but your relatives sound weird
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447
    kle4 said:

    Just had a conversation with relatives. Starmer is a monster trying to start WW3, our children shouldnt fight wars, Trump was controlling Putin quite well before but not now, and some Russian mystic has very accurate predictions of the future its spookily accurate.

    They seem to be talking their way into Trump support 'he's awful and unstable but he doesnt start wars and is for peace'.

    Used to be (maybe still are) Corbynite.

    Sounds a bit more old fashioned Tankie, with added New Age Woo.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,163

    Russia's Freedom House rating is Not Free.

    https://freedomhouse.org/country/russia
    The Economist Democracy Index rates Russia as an Authoritarian Regime. Out of a choice of Full Democracy, Flawed Democracy, Hybrid Regime and Authoritarian Regime.

    Democracy Matrix has Russia as 'Moderate Autocracy'. Out of
    Working Democracy
    Deficient Democracy
    Hybrid Regime
    Moderate Autocracy
    Hard Autocracy


    But @HYUFD rates Russia as a 'Democracy'
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447
    2025 Local Elections Seat Forecast:

    🌳 CON: 548 (-390)
    ➡️ RFM: 474 (+470)
    🔶 LDM: 270 (+50)
    🌹 LAB: 252 (-40)
    🌍 GRN: 27 (-10)
    🙋 Oth: 77 (-80)

    Changes are my own approximate figures due to boundary changes.

    Via @ElectCalculus.

    https://bsky.app/profile/electionmaps.uk/post/3lkg6jq7isc2o
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639

    Based on what? Three of the top 5 countries for asylum seekers are Syria, Iran and Afghanistan. Do you doubt that people have good reasons to flee those countries?
    But why should we take them? Most of them will be coming through half a dozen other safe countries.
    I'd suggest people we should be taking are those from HK or Ukraine, where we have specific reasons for taking them. Granted some Afghanistani asylum seekers would fall into that category. In general, we should probably be trying to avoid people from medeival shitholes like Syria.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447
    Foxy said:

    2025 Local Elections Seat Forecast:

    🌳 CON: 548 (-390)
    ➡️ RFM: 474 (+470)
    🔶 LDM: 270 (+50)
    🌹 LAB: 252 (-40)
    🌍 GRN: 27 (-10)
    🙋 Oth: 77 (-80)

    Changes are my own approximate figures due to boundary changes.

    Via @ElectCalculus.

    https://bsky.app/profile/electionmaps.uk/post/3lkg6jq7isc2o

    Personally, I would expect Greens to gain, and Ref not to do that well.
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