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Has Donald Trump killed Scottish nationalism stone dead? – politicalbetting.com

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  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,930
    @OldKingCole , @Stuartinromford , @HYUFD

    I gave a brief description how parties operated in the Soviet Union (under the "One Party State" subheading) in my "Parties" article. Happy to explicate further if required.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/06/05/parties/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,388

    Personally I never wanted to own property - I don't have the skills to maintain it or relatives to pass it on to. Growing up in Denmark it didn't occur to my family - renting flats in attractive tower blocks was what most people did. I've reluctantly accepted that it's different in the UK, with vast numbers of low-rise property privately owned, and constant grumbles about urban sprawl - as you say, it's seen as a key investment. But it's not the only workable model.
    I'm sure none of our descendants will want our property when we've passed on. The grandchildren will be happy with the money, though!
  • HYUFD said:

    Electoral Calculus is now forecasting a Reform and Tory majority at the next GE and Labour to come 4th in the May local elections

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/blogs/ec_lepoll_20250314.html
    What were you predicting in March 2020?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,930

    What were you predicting in March 2020?
    I (I am not @HYUFD ) was predicting a Conservative majority and was trying to work out how to shift thousands of pounds to bet on that outcome. COVID and common sense stayed my hand, but it was a valuable lesson : don't bet years before an election, it's pointless.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948
    kinabalu said:

    We need a real time monitor for the USA score under Trump2. It will be falling fast.
    Ukraine not great at 51, but Russian occupied Ukraine is minus 1, so it's all relative.
  • viewcode said:

    I (I am not @HYUFD ) was predicting a Conservative majority and was trying to work out how to shift thousands of pounds to bet on that outcome. COVID and common sense stayed my hand, but it was a valuable lesson : don't bet years before an election, it's pointless.
    I’ve put a few Pounds on Labour most seats
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,098

    Personally I never wanted to own property - I don't have the skills to maintain it or relatives to pass it on to. Growing up in Denmark it didn't occur to my family - renting flats in attractive tower blocks was what most people did. I've reluctantly accepted that it's different in the UK, with vast numbers of low-rise property privately owned, and constant grumbles about urban sprawl - as you say, it's seen as a key investment. But it's not the only workable model.
    I'd argue that many of us who do own property, and/or do have relatives to pass it on to, may feel rather differently.

    In fact, I'd strongly argue it is human nature.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,915

    It's that 'dogs have four legs, my cat has four legs therefore my cat is a dog' fallacy.

    Not all elections are equally democratic.
    It's democracy Jim, but not as we know it.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,915

    I’ve put a few Pounds on Labour most seats
    I've put on quite a few pounds but none in bets, sadly.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    Eabhal said:

    That's exactly the point I made above. But the idea that everyone renting now is doing so because they want to is plainly wrong - I rented for about four years longer than I wanted to, and it still required a gift worth £10,000s to get me on the ladder. There are other people in the same situation for decades because they don't have the intergenerational wealth to escape.

    Let's say half of private landlords were forced to sell up in the next 5 years. What would that do to house prices in our cities? Would that make it easier for first time buyers? Would there be thousands of empty flats?
    I actualy agree with your end aim. The problem is that if you forced 50% of landlords to sell up, whilst it might reduce the cost of housing a small amount, it would not reduce the cost of buying a house sufficiently for all those people who are currently renting a house to be able to afford one. So the cost of renting goes up and they are even worse off.

    Also worth remembering that, for all I think the dream of owning a house is a noble one and one we should try to make reality for all who want it, mass house wonership is only a relatively recent, post war, phenomena.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,215
    England now have 7 different try scorers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,215

    England now have 7 different try scorers.

    Make that 8
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236

    "That's FAKE NEWS from the Radical LEFT LUNATICS!!!"
    For clarity, just in case anyone was mad enough to think otherwise, my like was for your very fine Trump impression. :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,402
    Not going to lie, loving England smashing Wales here.

    It's like Jack Rowell is back with this score.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    HYUFD said:

    Kent weren't delayed only Sussex
    Apologies. Fake news from the Telegraph/Reform Today.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    viewcode said:

    In all seriousness, if you can get her and her partner to buy a house somewhere, anywhere they can. If it is not in the place where they intend to settle (and as you point out they don't know where that is yet), then they can rent it out or get lodgers in whilst they "live" elsewhere. When they find out where they want to settle thy can sell up later.

    People look at houses as a place to live, but in truth (and sadly) it's an investment, and if you get it wrong it means poverty in their old age. Failing to buy in your twenties incurs later costs of tens of thousands of pounds in terms of house price rises and unpaid mortgage payments. Unless you are rich and can afford to sub them tens or hundreds of pounds (you may be: don't feel obliged to say, it's not necessary for the point), it's a choice they can ill afford to ignore.
    In theory that is fine. But with the nature of their work and the fact they are just starting off and are willing to move to find their ideal jobs, they could easily end up 300 miles away from their property in very short order. It is just an added layer of hassle they don't need.

    Also, perhaps sadly, I have indoctrinated my daughter with my own ideology about a house being a home not an investment.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,113
    Foxy said:

    Yes but the policies offered need to be realistic, and Reforms clearly are not, and do not have to be. It's the Brexit issue all over again.

    Voters no longer are interested in reality, they are now all postmodernists denying the existence of objective truths. They want to belive the fantasy.
    The old right wasn't big on postmodernism IIRC, so I wonder who's fault it is that people think like this.
  • AbandonedHopeAbandonedHope Posts: 151
    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on the history of the Canadian border.

    A few days ago, I looked at how the international border through The Great Lakes was determined.
    But what about the border west of Lake Superior?
    It took decades to determine and wasn't just "drawn with a ruler by some guy".
    Let's learn more!..

    https://x.com/CraigBaird/status/1900928149904650505

    Have any PBers visited Point Roberts ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point_Roberts,_Washington

    I’ve been to Point Roberts. My mother’s cousin moved to Washington state to teach history (think it was Bellingham). We were living in South Carolina at the time. Spent a rather wonderful summer in the area and ended up visiting Point Roberts. A rather beautiful place - very charming with a sedate way of life (at the time).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,402
    10 FUCKING TRIES!!!!!

    This is nearly as good as sex.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    My low bound for a cricket score is the 60 for which Australia got out in the Ashes at Trent Bridge in 2015. That’s a cricket score from England tonight in Cardiff.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948
    edited March 15

    I actualy agree with your end aim. The problem is that if you forced 50% of landlords to sell up, whilst it might reduce the cost of housing a small amount, it would not reduce the cost of buying a house sufficiently for all those people who are currently renting a house to be able to afford one. So the cost of renting goes up and they are even worse off.

    Also worth remembering that, for all I think the dream of owning a house is a noble one and one we should try to make reality for all who want it, mass house wonership is only a relatively recent, post war, phenomena.
    Why would the cost of renting go up? We've just removed 50% of demand too, with half of renting households moving into their own properties. At the very least, I think we should try to stop the trend of increasing renting rates - we're moving rather rapidly towards a new type of feudalism.

    But yes - I actually agree with Nick's point, which is that the only reason this is become such a big issue is because the model in the UK makes owning property almost essential. A large majority in Germany rent, but housing costs are much lower. That wouldn't be a necessarily bad outcome.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,260
    edited March 15
    In Rugby if you are outmatched it is easy to get steamrolled.

    International relations too.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Bloody hell, wish I was still uni tonight, Cardiff will be very messy. I'm sure the uni will be sending out their warning to students not to go out in the city centre and stick to the union...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,385

    10 FUCKING TRIES!!!!!

    This is nearly as good as sex.

    Steady on, there, TSE!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,026
    MaxPB said:

    Bloody hell, wish I was still uni tonight, Cardiff will be very messy. I'm sure the uni will be sending out their warning to students not to go out in the city centre and stick to the union...

    Especially english students I expect.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,934
    Here is another example of why we are where are. Here's our friend Peter,on why capitalism should always rememember it's about monopoly, not competition.

    https://youtu.be/UUzvo4HwojU?si=VjWjYmMmXZi4imes


  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,163
    edited March 15
    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on the history of the Canadian border.

    A few days ago, I looked at how the international border through The Great Lakes was determined.
    But what about the border west of Lake Superior?
    It took decades to determine and wasn't just "drawn with a ruler by some guy".
    Let's learn more!..

    https://x.com/CraigBaird/status/1900928149904650505

    Have any PBers visited Point Roberts ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point_Roberts,_Washington

    When I last heard Point Roberts was under discussion for sale to Canada for several billion.

    There are a few more of these.

    The Usonians are utterly obsessed with territory, and self-obsessed with themselves - always have been. That's perhaps one reason why so many have followed Mr Chump down the ultra-nationalist rabbit hole.

    The EU is a really good precedent for this, in that borders become lightly drawn enough that enclaves and exclaves matter much less eventiually.

    I learnt - probably from the Map Men - Baarle in Holland/Belgium contains enclaves inside enclaves.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baarle-Nassau

    It's like the island in a lochan on an island in a loch at Slattadale.

    https://maps.app.goo.gl/aLvBhxbHsEnfh49E7
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,163
    edited March 15

    I don't really know why Mandelson has a reputation as a skilled and subtle negotiator. Apparently everyone in the world knew when they were on Mandelson's shitlist in New Labour. Case of wish being father to the thought I think.
    We were talking about mystery earlier. Creating a reputation is part of it - who knows what's underneath :wink: .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,385

    For clarity, just in case anyone was mad enough to think otherwise, my like was for your very fine Trump impression. :)
    Um, thank you :)

    Although Freedom House reckon the USA is lagging behind the other Anglosphere nations:

    Freedom scores:

    NZ 99
    Can 97
    Ire 97
    Aus 95
    UK 92
    USA 84
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,420
    @BillKristol

    Trump's one achievement so far has been to Make Canada Great Again.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,385
    MattW said:

    When I last heard Point Roberts was under discussion for sale to Canada for several billion.

    There are a few more of these.

    The Usonians are utterly obsessed with territory, and self-obsessed with themselves - always have been. That's perhaps one reason why so many have followed Mr Chump down the ultra-nationalist rabbit hole.

    The EU is a really good precedent for this, in that borders become lightly drawn enough that enclaves and exclaves matter much less eventiually.

    I learnt - probably from the Map Men - Baarle in Holland/Belgium contains enclaves inside enclaves.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baarle-Nassau

    It's like the island in a lochan on an island in a loch at Slattadale.

    https://maps.app.goo.gl/aLvBhxbHsEnfh49E7
    The India-Bangladesh border used to be like that:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India–Bangladesh_enclaves
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    edited March 15
    Eabhal said:

    Why would the cost of renting go up? We've just removed 50% of demand too, with half of renting households moving into their own properties. At the very least, I think we should try to stop the trend of increasing renting rates - we're moving rather rapidly towards a new type of feudalism.

    But yes - I actually agree with Nick's point, which is that the only reason this is become such a big issue is because the model in the UK makes owning property almost essential. A large majority in Germany rent, but housing costs are much lower. That wouldn't be a necessarily bad outcome.
    Er no you havene't. That is based on the assumption that the cost of housing drops sufficiently for those who are renting to be able to buy the house they are living in or a similar property. That is almost certainly not going to happen. So those families living in rented property suddenly find that the property is no longer available and they can't afford to buy anywhere else.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,200
    Come on Scotland

    Keep woke foreign
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798
    Dura_Ace said:

    In other military industrial complex news, I note that Trump's new Secretary of the Navy has designated Virginia hulls 814 and 815 (the first Block IV boats which were going to the the Australian Navy's new build Virginias) as the USS Pontiac and the USS Norfolk (obviously a Partridge fan).

    Hard luck, Aussies. Best of luck getting your money back.

    It does look like Australia would be best served by abandoning the AUKUS submarines and going back to a French one, on grounds of availability, cost and suitability and possibly also shared national interest in the Pacific region given Trump's antics.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,026
    Scott_xP said:

    @BillKristol

    Trump's one achievement so far has been to Make Canada Great Again.

    I bet most of us haven't given Canada a second thought in years.

    Now it is part of the Wall of Democracy and on the frontline against the new US-Russian axis we are thinking about it a lot.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795

    Does that mean that the Soviet Union was a democracy? Their elections had other candidates, some of who got elected.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Soviet_Union_legislative_election

    (The answer is probably "of course not". There's plenty of space where elections can happen without them being meaningful. Most dictators prefer to operate in that space, it's less embarrassing for them.)
    Quite a few states behind the Iron Curtain had subsidiary parties to the Communist Party.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,124

    I bet most of us haven't given Canada a second thought in years.

    Now it is part of the Wall of Democracy and on the frontline against the new US-Russian axis we are thinking about it a lot.
    I proposed an Anglo-Canadian “agreement” a few years ago on here, precisely as a way of beefing up British (and Canadian) security against an unpredictable US.

    Sadly I am a prophet without honour.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,383

    Come on Scotland

    Keep woke foreign

    The French demolition of Italy earlier in the competition may well turn out to be crucial even if they don't get the bonus point tonight.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,424

    Er no you havene't. That is based on the assumption that the cost of housing drops sufficiently for those who are renting to be able to buy the house they are living in or a similar property. That is almost certainly not going to happen. So those families living in rented property suddenly find that the property is no longer available and they can't afford to buy anywhere else.
    What about the rented houses that have been vacated to buy the freed up ones?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948

    Er no you havene't. That is based on the assumption that the cost of housing drops sufficiently for those who are renting to be able to buy the house they are living in or a similar property. That is almost certainly not going to happen. So those families living in rented property suddenly find that the property is no longer available and they can't afford to buy anywhere else.
    I don't see why that couldn't happen. You're suggesting that swathes of housing in Edinburgh would lie empty if it wasn't for the private rental market.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,163
    A further significant point from that Fiona Hill interview I posted about the meeting where Zelensky was mugged in the Oval Office.

    He has in a language - English - that he has only learnt recently, and in which he is not fluent, never mind idiomatic.

    She said he should have had a top notch interpreter, and his best starting strategy would have been to just sloooowwwww it doowwwwnnnnn to take time to think. I'm sure some of our experienced negotiators here have done thre same thing.

    Also some commentary about how Putin & Co, who all know what they are doing and have been in post for ever (eg Lavrov - Foreign Minister since 2004), used translators to manipulate Trump and laugh at him in Russian whilst he is laughing.

    One strategy is private meetings; Trump is such a rank amateur that he does no proper record or analysis. Another is sexy lady interpreters to distract his peabrain, and so on. So chump Trump is wrapped around Putin's little finger.

    Repost: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxfrJ5smAU8
  • pancakespancakes Posts: 50
    viewcode said:

    @OldKingCole , @Stuartinromford , @HYUFD

    I gave a brief description how parties operated in the Soviet Union (under the "One Party State" subheading) in my "Parties" article. Happy to explicate further if required.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/06/05/parties/

    That's how they operated in "people's democracies" such as East Germany and Czechoslovakia, but I think that in the Soviet Union proper, there was only one legal political party until 1988.
    Good article though.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,656
    Barnesian said:

    The best and cheapest and most humane solution is immediate processing. About 30% will be returned and 70% will be accepted as genuine asylum seekers.

    These will enter the jobs and housing markets, paying taxes and doing useful work, including, in some cases, helping to build houses.

    What do you suggest?
    Well a bullet works as most countries do
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,656
    Eabhal said:

    Why would the cost of renting go up? We've just removed 50% of demand too, with half of renting households moving into their own properties. At the very least, I think we should try to stop the trend of increasing renting rates - we're moving rather rapidly towards a new type of feudalism.

    But yes - I actually agree with Nick's point, which is that the only reason this is become such a big issue is because the model in the UK makes owning property almost essential. A large majority in Germany rent, but housing costs are much lower. That wouldn't be a necessarily bad outcome.
    Bollocks if you think 50% of renters could afforf to buy
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,656
    Leon said:

    I just packed for a long awaited trip to Uruguay. Nailed everything down. Shut the flat. Got the Uber to Paddington. Got Heathrow express to LHR. Trundled to terminal 3. Went suavely to the check in desk, congratulating myself on being prompt and efficient - almost 3 hours before departure, time for a drink. At the check in desk they got confused by my ticket and then they pointed out that, in fact, I was two days early and I fly out to Uruguay on Monday

    I hpe you come back to find sqatters in your flat
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    edited March 15
    Leon said:

    I just packed for a long awaited trip to Uruguay. Nailed everything down. Shut the flat. Got the Uber to Paddington. Got Heathrow express to LHR. Trundled to terminal 3. Went suavely to the check in desk, congratulating myself on being prompt and efficient - almost 3 hours before departure, time for a drink. At the check in desk they got confused by my ticket and then they pointed out that, in fact, I was two days early and I fly out to Uruguay on Monday

    Use it as an opportunity. Don't go back to the flat. Book yourself into a London hotel and pretend you are a Uruguayan version of yourself. Write an article from that perspective.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,656
    nico67 said:

    Canada is a wonderful country and I’d love to visit again. I certainly will be following their election closely and really hope the Libs can win . Canada is becoming a proxy for us more progressives in the fight against the growing axis of evil.

    Do give over canada is an axis of evil when being a cheese smuggler is a viable occuptation
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,200

    Come on Scotland

    Keep woke foreign



    From Ibrox this week, so I presume it's a popular Scottish rallying cry?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,026
    Vance on TV tonight in interviews talking about Europe committing civilisational suicide.

    Maybe he has no idea what this means, but he is becoming very Houellebecq.



  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,321
    HYUFD said:

    It is a flawed democracy or at most a diluted dictatorship, a true pure dictatorship would ban any alternative party from contesting its elections if it has any elections at all for government executive and legislative posts as well as jail or execute most of its opponents of course
    You really are a cretin. Lukashenka presides over a murderous violence which is truly horrible to behold, and yes I have been there and yes I have friends who have been forced to flee. There is literally nothing to mitigate the vile regime.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,113
    Leon said:

    I just packed for a long awaited trip to Uruguay. Nailed everything down. Shut the flat. Got the Uber to Paddington. Got Heathrow express to LHR. Trundled to terminal 3. Went suavely to the check in desk, congratulating myself on being prompt and efficient - almost 3 hours before departure, time for a drink. At the check in desk they got confused by my ticket and then they pointed out that, in fact, I was two days early and I fly out to Uruguay on Monday

    Have you been to Uruguay before?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    Eabhal said:

    I don't see why that couldn't happen. You're suggesting that swathes of housing in Edinburgh would lie empty if it wasn't for the private rental market.
    No, I am suggesting that the people who would buy it wuld not be the sorts of people who were having to rent it in the first place. How do they raise a deposit? You do realise that according to the FT and the Halifax it is now cheaper to rent than buy in the short to medium term?

    https://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2024/03/28/renting-cheaper-than-buying-first-home-in-majority-of-uk/
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,656
    Could we just pay someone to off her and save the money she is guiltier than fuck
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,215
    Pagan2 said:

    Could we just pay someone to off her and save the money she is guiltier than fuck
    Frankly astonished she's still alive..
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,155
    Pagan2 said:

    Well a bullet works as most countries do
    Disgusting comment.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,934

    Vance on TV tonight in interviews talking about Europe committing civilisational suicide.

    Maybe he has no idea what this means, but he is becoming very Houellebecq.



    Very Yarvin, too.

    They are complete fanat6cs.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,656

    Frankly astonished she's still alive..
    She probably isnt allowed in general population
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,026
    Cicero said:

    You really are a cretin. Lukashenka presides over a murderous violence which is truly horrible to behold, and yes I have been there and yes I have friends who have been forced to flee. There is literally nothing to mitigate the vile regime.
    Dictatorship has many forms. It is ridiculous of @HYUFD to say it is not a "pure" system of dictatorship.

    Even the Nazi allowed "guests" on their lists.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,424

    Disgusting comment.
    Pagan is still in a foul mood.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,113
    "The US is expelling South Africa's ambassador to Washington, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio describing him as a "race-baiting politician"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmj8ky3rvno
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,002
    edited March 15
    MattW said:

    A further significant point from that Fiona Hill interview I posted about the meeting where Zelensky was mugged in the Oval Office.

    He has in a language - English - that he has only learnt recently, and in which he is not fluent, never mind idiomatic.

    She said he should have had a top notch interpreter, and his best starting strategy would have been to just sloooowwwww it doowwwwnnnnn to take time to think. I'm sure some of our experienced negotiators here have done thre same thing.

    Also some commentary about how Putin & Co, who all know what they are doing and have been in post for ever (eg Lavrov - Foreign Minister since 2004), used translators to manipulate Trump and laugh at him in Russian whilst he is laughing.

    One strategy is private meetings; Trump is such a rank amateur that he does no proper record or analysis. Another is sexy lady interpreters to distract his peabrain, and so on. So chump Trump is wrapped around Putin's little finger.

    Repost: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GxfrJ5smAU8

    Thanks for this. I listened to it this afternoon. It's an hour but well worth it.
    Fiona Hill is a coal miner's daughter, born in Durham, and now an American citizen who has worked for G W Bush, Obama and Trump. as an expert on Russia (she is a fluent Russin speaker).
    She is very knowledgeable and inciteful.

    I've recommended it to several friends.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948
    Pagan2 said:

    Well a bullet works as most countries do
    Been interesting watching people circle the drain. We've had WilliamGlenn claim the Ukraine war was started by Biden, HYUFD suggest Russia is a functioning democracy and now this.

    I'm rather against bans because frankly it's fascinating watching this kind of deterioration. Strongly suggest Netflix's Adolescence for something similar.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,795

    Dictatorship has many forms. It is ridiculous of @HYUFD to say it is not a "pure" system of dictatorship.

    Even the Nazi allowed "guests" on their lists.
    Since no system of government has been tried in its “pure” form, I suggest we try them all again.

    First up is Absolute Monarchy. And I am the monarch.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,260
    Cicero said:

    You really are a cretin. Lukashenka presides over a murderous violence which is truly horrible to behold, and yes I have been there and yes I have friends who have been forced to flee. There is literally nothing to mitigate the vile regime.
    Killing and imprisoning to prevent opposition is just a democratic flaw. You have to take these dictators, sorry, democrats, at their word.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,163
    edited March 15
    FF43 said:

    It does look like Australia would be best served by abandoning the AUKUS submarines and going back to a French one, on grounds of availability, cost and suitability and possibly also shared national interest in the Pacific region given Trump's antics.
    I can't call that. The Virginia Classes are not due for delivery until the early 2030s, which is very post-Trump.

    Nor is it clear that the diesel boats they would get from France would do the job now, or if the French would now be ready to supply nuclear boats. IIRC that was one reason they stopped it, others being horrific cost escalation and feeling that they were being bent over and shafted with a very crusty bagette.

    Would a new French programme be any better, and when would it deliver?

    OTOH I'm not sure what the status of Oz is in the new USA Alone world; they are on the receiving end of the planned pivot, whilst we are on the losing end.

    They have options - I'm not a "submarine knowlegeable" person but our build rate is I think one submarine per 3 years (ish), and they take 8-10 years to build, so that may be able to be accelerated over a number of years to create two or three extras in current conditions.

    (Nor am I sure how "sovereign" our nuclear-tech is. I think we had to have new laws passed in the USA around sharing of nuclear - not missile - technology that we have under our 1958 agreement with the USA.)

    I'm not sure on any of that. They certainly need to have a think and take a view.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948

    No, I am suggesting that the people who would buy it wuld not be the sorts of people who were having to rent it in the first place. How do they raise a deposit? You do realise that according to the FT and the Halifax it is now cheaper to rent than buy in the short to medium term?

    https://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2024/03/28/renting-cheaper-than-buying-first-home-in-majority-of-uk/
    This is getting a bit silly. All I'm suggesting is that the idea that private landlords provide some sort of service is nonsense. Whatever the form of tenure, housing demand is so high in our cities that homes will be occupied. It's just that the tax system + gross inequality will lead to the landlord class enjoying all the capital gains from housing, while those at the bottom suffer more and more.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798
    Leon said:

    I just packed for a long awaited trip to Uruguay. Nailed everything down. Shut the flat. Got the Uber to Paddington. Got Heathrow express to LHR. Trundled to terminal 3. Went suavely to the check in desk, congratulating myself on being prompt and efficient - almost 3 hours before departure, time for a drink. At the check in desk they got confused by my ticket and then they pointed out that, in fact, I was two days early and I fly out to Uruguay on Monday

    I think see it as a gift. It might have been the other way round.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,934

    Since no system of government has been tried in its “pure” form, I suggest we try them all again.

    First up is Absolute Monarchy. And I am the monarch.
    Andy_JS said:

    "The US is expelling South Africa's ambassador to Washington, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio describing him as a "race-baiting politician"."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crmj8ky3rvno

    The influence of the legendary and tiresome Thiel/Musk South African
    twosome, again, I expect. They already got the white migration scheme.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,260

    Since no system of government has been tried in its “pure” form, I suggest we try them all again.

    First up is Absolute Monarchy. And I am the monarch.
    Happy to be a lackey, your majesty. Im very placid, no rebellion here.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,675
    Andy_JS said:

    Have you been to Uruguay before?
    Glad Leon is back. I enjoy the travelogues.

    Different times of year I feel like going to different places. Where is best in the early Boreal spring? I’d suggest Northern Spain and Basque, or North West Morocco. Sadly no work trips there coming up, just LA and Mexico.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,845

    Not going to lie, loving England smashing Wales here.

    It's like Jack Rowell is back with this score.

    Looked a load of Pollocks to me.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,236
    Eabhal said:

    This is getting a bit silly. All I'm suggesting is that the idea that private landlords provide some sort of service is nonsense. Whatever the form of tenure, housing demand is so high in our cities that homes will be occupied. It's just that the tax system + gross inequality will lead to the landlord class enjoying all the capital gains from housing, while those at the bottom suffer more and more.
    But the point is that they do provide a very necessary service. There might be a lot wrong with theway it is done - much of which is being addressed by successive governments - but the fact is we need private landlords. There are large numbers of people who cannot afford to buy houses. Getting rid of private landlords won't change that even if a few who are now renting are able to buy. All you will do is put further restrictions on the rental market by reducing availability and drive up rents.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,869
    Nigelb said:

    Good thread on the history of the Canadian border.

    A few days ago, I looked at how the international border through The Great Lakes was determined.
    But what about the border west of Lake Superior?
    It took decades to determine and wasn't just "drawn with a ruler by some guy".
    Let's learn more!..

    https://x.com/CraigBaird/status/1900928149904650505

    Have any PBers visited Point Roberts ?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Point_Roberts,_Washington

    Yes. It's a bizarre place.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278
    FF43 said:

    I think see it as a gift. It might have been the other way round.
    Yes. And I have in fact done that in the past - turned up a day late for a flight, thereby missing it entirely

    This is also better than the time I spent all my money on heroin in Tenerife then went penniless to the airport, with at least an air ticket home (where I could get some money) - only to realise I was THREE days early and I had to spend THREE DAYS sleeping in Tenerife airport, drinking water from water foundains and scavenging leftover sandwiches

    That was not fun. This is fun, in comparison
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,388
    Nigelb said:

    Looked a load of Pollocks to me.
    Wales under 23 won though, so there’s hope for the future!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,026
    Leon said:

    I just packed for a long awaited trip to Uruguay. Nailed everything down. Shut the flat. Got the Uber to Paddington. Got Heathrow express to LHR. Trundled to terminal 3. Went suavely to the check in desk, congratulating myself on being prompt and efficient - almost 3 hours before departure, time for a drink. At the check in desk they got confused by my ticket and then they pointed out that, in fact, I was two days early and I fly out to Uruguay on Monday

    Isn't there a black comedy film where a guy gets stuck in an airport for days/months?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278

    Isn't there a black comedy film where a guy gets stuck in an airport for days/months?
    "Terminal", which was made, in part, by a friend of mine!

    Based on a sad, true story
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,991
    edited March 15
    Off thread

    Rugby League Challenge Cup..


    Wigan out of the Challenge Cup= LOL
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,845

    Vance on TV tonight in interviews talking about Europe committing civilisational suicide.

    Maybe he has no idea what this means, but he is becoming very Houellebecq.

    TBF, after a couple of centuries of absurd French intellectuals, it's only fair the US gets a shout.
    But unfortunate that their absurd intellectuals now more or less control the government.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278
    edited March 15
    The Marseillaise is massively overrated as an anthem

    It's a fun bouncy energising tune - but it is too hard to sing to be a real belter
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,402
    Russia has kidnapped tens of thousands of Ukrainian children. Putin was indicted for this crime. Yale has a unit searching for them. Musk eliminated the funding.

    https://x.com/TimothyDSnyder/status/1900954995110924556
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278
    Been away. This been done?

    President Trump Job Approval
    54% Approve
    44% Disapprove

    3,000 RV, March 6-13, 2025

    https://napolitannews.org/posts/president-trump-job-approval-54-percent-approve-44-disapprove
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,163
    edited March 15
    Eabhal said:

    This is getting a bit silly. All I'm suggesting is that the idea that private landlords provide some sort of service is nonsense. Whatever the form of tenure, housing demand is so high in our cities that homes will be occupied. It's just that the tax system + gross inequality will lead to the landlord class enjoying all the capital gains from housing, while those at the bottom suffer more and more.
    That's a bizarre comment too imo.

    Of course landlords provide a service - a housing service. It's governed by about 100 acts of Parliament including remaining clauses of the Magna Carta, and a ginormous volume of contract law and regulation. That's England, but Scotland is similar.

    Whilst I'm at it, the idea that 'rich landlords are buying up an ever increasing proportion of housing stock' is untrue as well. In Scotland iirc the number (never mind the proportion) of rented stock peaked in about 2015. After that the proportion fell sharply.

    In England the % of owner occupiers has increased in something like 6 out of the last 8 years, and has increased from 62.6% in 2017 to 64.8% in 2024. The history is that it was ~70% around 2000 through till 2007, fell for the next 10 years, and then the trend reversed.

    https://www.statista.com/statistics/286503/england-propportion-of-owner-occupied-households/

    This is one reason why I generally stay off these debates on PB now; facts and data don't apply - and it is usually in the main a swapping of faith-positions.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,402
    edited March 15
    Leon said:

    Been away. This been done?

    President Trump Job Approval
    54% Approve
    44% Disapprove

    3,000 RV, March 6-13, 2025

    https://napolitannews.org/posts/president-trump-job-approval-54-percent-approve-44-disapprove

    Rasmussen.

    LOL.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/08/rasmussen-538-polling/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278

    Rasmussen.

    LOL.
    I thought Rasmussen were legit?

    Genuine question. Are they not? American pollsters are so confusing
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,869

    Off thread

    Rugby League Challenge Cup..


    Wigan out of the Challenge Cup= LOL

    Kind of us to permit someone else to win summat.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,618
    Leon said:

    "Terminal", which was made, in part, by a friend of mine!

    Based on a sad, true story
    Think of the fun you could have over the next few days if you took a lot of medicine for goat
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,163
    MattW said:

    I can't call that. The Virginia Classes are not due for delivery until the early 2030s, which is very post-Trump.

    Nor is it clear that the diesel boats they would get from France would do the job now, or if the French would now be ready to supply nuclear boats. IIRC that was one reason they stopped it, others being horrific cost escalation and feeling that they were being bent over and shafted with a very crusty bagette.

    Would a new French programme be any better, and when would it deliver?

    OTOH I'm not sure what the status of Oz is in the new USA Alone world; they are on the receiving end of the planned pivot, whilst we are on the losing end.

    They have options - I'm not a "submarine knowlegeable" person but our build rate is I think one submarine per 3 years (ish), and they take 8-10 years to build, so that may be able to be accelerated over a number of years to create two or three extras in current conditions.

    (Nor am I sure how "sovereign" our nuclear-tech is. I think we had to have new laws passed in the USA around sharing of nuclear - not missile - technology that we have under our 1958 agreement with the USA.)

    I'm not sure on any of that. They certainly need to have a think and take a view.
    OK - I'm not right on the technology sharing. It is more about exemptions from ITAR laws. There's a commentary here:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/14/us-congress-passes-bill-allowing-sale-of-aukus-nuclear-submarines-to-australia
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,402
    edited March 15
    Leon said:

    I thought Rasmussen were legit?

    Genuine question. Are they not? American pollsters are so confusing
    See the link I added to my post.

    They so pro Trump in their polling.

    538 dropped from their panel.

    Somebody who was surveyed once posted a screen shot of the questions, it wasn't far off asking

    'Who do you want running the economy, Donald Trump who has delivered record breaking growth/jobs or Joe Biden who when he was Obama's VP destroyed the economy.'
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,798
    edited March 15
    MattW said:

    I can't call that. The Virginia Classes are not due for delivery until the early 2030s, which is very post-Trump.

    Nor is it clear that the diesel boats they would get from France would do the job now, or if the French would now be ready to supply nuclear boats. IIRC that was one reason they stopped it, others being horrific cost escalation and feeling that they were being bent over and shafted with a very crusty bagette.

    Would a new French programme be any better, and when would it deliver?

    OTOH I'm not sure what the status of Oz is in the new USA Alone world; they are on the receiving end of the planned pivot, whilst we are on the losing end.

    They have options - I'm not a "submarine knowlegeable" person but our build rate is I think one submarine per 3 years (ish), and they take 8-10 years to build, so that may be able to be accelerated over a number of years to create two or three extras in current conditions.

    (Nor am I sure how "sovereign" our nuclear-tech is. I think we had to have new laws passed in the USA around sharing of nuclear - not missile - technology that we have under our 1958 agreement with the USA.)

    I'm not sure on any of that. They certainly need to have a think and take a view.
    The deal AIUI is three to five Virginia class submarines followed by five boats from the SSN-AUKUS joint venture that will act as a UK replacement to Astute.

    The Australians are highly unlikely to get any Virginias and SSN-AUKUS must be doubtful given they haven't even finished Astute yet and will follow on with a very delayed Dreadnought programme before possibly initiating an Astute replacement. The Australians run a significant risk of not getting any submarines at all through AUKUS.

    The French design is ready to build if the Australians go for the nuclear version rather than a diesel variant.

    https://warontherocks.com/2025/03/when-it-comes-to-submarines-australia-is-going-to-be-left-high-and-dry/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278
    Andy_JS said:

    Have you been to Uruguay before?
    No. I'm looking forward to it. Tho TBH I'd prefer to be going to Paraguay which seems a genuinely crazy country

    Nonetheless, Uruguay!

    My brother, who has a deeply juvenile sense of humour, has told me that when I am there I should pronounce it "You're a gay" but do it with a total straight face indicating that I really believe this is how to pronounce it

    Then I can go into bars and say "I love it here, why not, it's great, I mean" - pointing at nearest local rugby player -
    "Who wouldn't love it. You're a gay!"

    I'd get killed but it would be funny (or so he thinks)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,055
    Leon said:

    No. I'm looking forward to it. Tho TBH I'd prefer to be going to Paraguay which seems a genuinely crazy country

    Nonetheless, Uruguay!

    My brother, who has a deeply juvenile sense of humour, has told me that when I am there I should pronounce it "You're a gay" but do it with a total straight face indicating that I really believe this is how to pronounce it

    Then I can go into bars and say "I love it here, why not, it's great, I mean" - pointing at nearest local rugby player -
    "Who wouldn't love it. You're a gay!"

    I'd get killed but it would be funny (or so he thinks)
    Who wouldn't love rugby?

    Well, any Welshman for starters :angry::rage:
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,278

    See the link I added to my post.

    They so pro Trump in their polling.

    538 dropped from their panel.

    Somebody who was surveyed once posted a screen shot of the questions, it wasn't far off asking

    'Who do you want running the economy, Donald Trump who has delivered record breaking growth/jobs or Joe Biden who when he was Obama's VP destroyed the economy.'
    Fair enough

    Do the Americans not have a version of the BPC that vets all these pollsters so you can spot the duds?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,428

    Not going to lie, loving England smashing Wales here.

    It's like Jack Rowell is back with this score.

    Back in 1998 I was at a football match rather than watching the rugby. Half heard the England Wales score as 16-26 and that we’d lost.
    Couldn’t imagine it was 60-26…
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,950

    See the link I added to my post.

    They so pro Trump in their polling.

    538 dropped from their panel.

    Somebody who was surveyed once posted a screen shot of the questions, it wasn't far off asking

    'Who do you want running the economy, Donald Trump who has delivered record breaking growth/jobs or Joe Biden who when he was Obama's VP destroyed the economy.'
    Sounds like they've actually been colluding with Trump.

    https://newrepublic.com/post/186444/conservative-poll-rasmussen-secretly-worked-trump-team
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,948

    But the point is that they do provide a very necessary service. There might be a lot wrong with theway it is done - much of which is being addressed by successive governments - but the fact is we need private landlords. There are large numbers of people who cannot afford to buy houses. Getting rid of private landlords won't change that even if a few who are now renting are able to buy. All you will do is put further restrictions on the rental market by reducing availability and drive up rents.

    At what point do they stop providing a necessary service? 40% renting tenure? 80%? The full feudal?
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