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Trump Overreach? – politicalbetting.com

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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    I haven't read the thread but the Ukrainians are retreating in Kursk. Rumours that the Russians suddenly have very precise co-ordinates and intelligence as to where they are.

    I saw a film a few years ago with Sydney Sweeney called Reality about intelligence leaks from the US. They have form on this. Snowden, Manning etc. It wouldn't surprise me if something big came out fairly soon.

    Whether that is the reason or not it is a literally bloody tragedy, whilst those behind it and supporting it posture about how much they love peace. Disgusting.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,863

    You could imagine a scenario where Russia tries to "send messages" on the same day.

    Blow up a lot of U.S. military fuel, and attack Musk's X. Didn't someone also post something, more recently, about
    Trump making some more anti-Russıa sounding noisies, today ?

    Although, in this crazy wild world currently, you almost feel it could equally be Ukraine and some anti-Trump faction of the U.S. intel.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    The United States has prospered by being the country people want to do business with. You would think the CEO in chief would understand this.

    Perhaps, but the record shows that Trump was a pretty terrible CEO.
    He is not a businessman, he is a property speculator that was given huge sums from daddy. No wonder Alan Sugar has disdain for him
    If not for TrumpMedia, which would have collapsed in value had he not won re-election, he'd have very little (for a billionaire) available capital presumably.

    He really struck it big when he got into politics, the power he was able to wield and how that propped up his finances was a godsend.

    Well, maybe not god, but someone.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,505
    Taz said:

    TESLA sales crash in China:

    "On Monday, the China Passenger Car Association said that the overall trend of new-energy passenger-car sales was “strong,” with sales of market leader BYD Co. Ltd. BYDDY rising 7.3% to 318,233 units, according to a Google translation of official data.

    But it certainly wasn’t strong for Tesla, which saw sales sink 51.5% to 30,688 EVs in February, from the 63,238 units sold in January."

    I’d be interested in @RochdalePioneers take. ISTM BYD make some decent models.

    My old boss had a Tesla. Didn’t like it.
    BYD are so hot right now. Never mind the cars, they are vertically integrated and make batteries for themselves and others.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,292

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tesla stock sinking like a stone today :):) £££

    You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.

    You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
    I don't agree with the beating up of Rochdale over his YouTube channel but anything we can do to punish MAGA adjacent corporations is OK by me. Quietly cancelling my Amazon Prime membership however useful might be one small pain in Bezos's side. If enough cancel it will be a massive pain in his arse, and he might think twice about turning WaPo into the National Enquirer.

    Forty years ago the Eliza Tinsley company broke South African sanctions and provided the Apartheid Government with chains and manacles to shackle Nelson Mandela to his cell wall in Roben Island. I have never subsequently bought any of their products. Bastards!
    Our US roadtrip is off again. Thought about just doing blue states but decided that would be a bit sad given I specifically want to see the deep south.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Labour should win the by-election because of the Merseyside influence. But perhaps it will be closer than expected.

    Decent post from you Andy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    Musk the unifier:

    image

    How does that twat Musk rationalise that one?
    Defiance of the Leader is treason, simple.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,109
    It’s an act of American patriotism to bring X down, as far as I’m concerned.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129

    Taz said:

    TESLA sales crash in China:

    "On Monday, the China Passenger Car Association said that the overall trend of new-energy passenger-car sales was “strong,” with sales of market leader BYD Co. Ltd. BYDDY rising 7.3% to 318,233 units, according to a Google translation of official data.

    But it certainly wasn’t strong for Tesla, which saw sales sink 51.5% to 30,688 EVs in February, from the 63,238 units sold in January."

    I’d be interested in @RochdalePioneers take. ISTM BYD make some decent models.

    My old boss had a Tesla. Didn’t like it.
    BYD are so hot right now. Never mind the cars, they are vertically integrated and make batteries for themselves and others.
    JustBuyABYD?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    It appears that the judges are defying the Government on two tier sentencing. Time for Shabana Mahmood to show what she's made of.

    https://order-order.com/2025/03/10/sentencing-council-slaps-down-mahmoods-call-to-scrap-two-tier-guidance/

    Does the Sentencing Council have the authority absent legislation to continue to apply its rules on courts? Presumably that is what parliament permitted when it set it up?
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 109
    Anyone have a theory on the ship collision. My first thought was Russia.
  • TazTaz Posts: 16,900
    Andy_JS said:

    Labour should win the by-election because of the Merseyside influence. But perhaps it will be closer than expected.

    They should win because Reform have,proverbially, ‘shit the bed’ this last week.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    So it's Carney as expected. Flash in the pan poll bump, or a change of Leader and a menacing Trump really sufficient to change the minds of 15-20% of Canadians?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,078
    @mmpadellan

    Stock market crashing
    Planes crashing
    Rockets crashing
    Twitter crashing

    trump's America: crashing
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,505
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tesla stock sinking like a stone today :):) £££

    You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.

    You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
    I don't agree with the beating up of Rochdale over his YouTube channel but anything we can do to punish MAGA adjacent corporations is OK by me. Quietly cancelling my Amazon Prime membership however useful might be one small pain in Bezos's side. If enough cancel it will be a massive pain in his arse, and he might think twice about turning WaPo into the National Enquirer.

    Forty years ago the Eliza Tinsley company broke South African sanctions and provided the Apartheid Government with chains and manacles to shackle Nelson Mandela to his cell wall in Roben Island. I have never subsequently bought any of their products. Bastards!
    I agree, and IMV the bullying of Rochdale this morning was unseemly.

    I took out a 30 day prime membership to get the Dr Who season 7 Blu-ray next day. I’ll cancel it. Also find it far cheaper to order directly for the sort of stuff I buy.
    Thanks, but remember that bullying takes two. There was some attempted bullying, but it didn't succeed in bullying me.

    People get het up in the middle of scandals crises and issues. I don't think anything was meant personally and it wasn't taken as such.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254
    Scott_xP said:

    glw said:

    He's one of the dumbest people in America.

    And surrounded himself with idiots.

    His "tech guy" can't get his tech running

    Hos Foreign Secretary has never seen a map of Europe

    Let's not even start with the others
    Likes the Fox News guy and the podcaster running the DOD?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    Musk the unifier:

    image

    How does that twat Musk rationalise that one?
    Kelly is trying to undermine the foreign policy of the US government.
    Oh right! The foreign policy of the Kremlin would be more accurate
    They both happily admit to being aligned on this issue - 'peace' is wanted, Ukraine is the enemy.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,460

    Anyone have a theory on the ship collision. My first thought was Russia.

    It has happened in the past that coast guard or navy (in the UK and elsewhere) have boarded ships which are non-responsive to hails. And discovered that the vessel in on automatic pilot and everyone is asleep.

    The state of the international shipping industry is dire. Race to the bottom, with minimal standards for pay, equipment and everything else.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,655
    kle4 said:

    Musk the unifier:

    image

    How does that twat Musk rationalise that one?
    Defiance of the Leader is treason, simple.
    Projection.

    It happens all the time with Trump 2.0 fanatics. They accuse the other side of the exact thing they are or are doing.

    One from the fascist playbook.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,078
    @nytmike
    NEW: In a major escalation in the fight between Trump and Perkins Coie, the firm has retained Williams & Connolly -- which has some of the most aggressive and fiercest litigators in the country -- to represent it. There were deep concerns in the legal community that no one was going to be willing to come forward to represent Perkins Coie against Trump.

    https://x.com/nytmike/status/1899161903986889126
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,658
    kle4 said:

    So it's Carney as expected. Flash in the pan poll bump, or a change of Leader and a menacing Trump really sufficient to change the minds of 15-20% of Canadians?

    I suspect the Liberals will try and turn the general election into a referendum on Trump / Canada relations but in the end the Conservatives will scrape home as the Canadians look to be ready for a change.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:


    What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:

    1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.

    2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.

    3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.

    4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street

    5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.

    Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?

    You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
    And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
    Particularly as he is obese. Keep eating those burgers Donald!
    I'm afraid he's lost a few pounds recently. I just don’t think we can count on a rescue via health event. Plenty other ways he comes a cropper though.
    A health event that leads to President Vance is nothing to wish for.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,080
    .. part of me enjoying the Dow Jones plummeting today. The most satisfying is Tesla.

    I don’t want to see America in the kind of state it’s in currently. But Trump / Musk deserve everything coming to them
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,460
    kle4 said:

    It appears that the judges are defying the Government on two tier sentencing. Time for Shabana Mahmood to show what she's made of.

    https://order-order.com/2025/03/10/sentencing-council-slaps-down-mahmoods-call-to-scrap-two-tier-guidance/

    Does the Sentencing Council have the authority absent legislation to continue to apply its rules on courts? Presumably that is what parliament permitted when it set it up?
    Yup - it is a quango setup so that the politicians can claim "nothing to do with us" when someone complains about sentencing. *And* the politicians can get plaudits at the right social functions for being impeccably legalistic and hands off when it comes to sentencing.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    .
    kle4 said:

    It appears that the judges are defying the Government on two tier sentencing. Time for Shabana Mahmood to show what she's made of.

    https://order-order.com/2025/03/10/sentencing-council-slaps-down-mahmoods-call-to-scrap-two-tier-guidance/

    Does the Sentencing Council have the authority absent legislation to continue to apply its rules on courts? Presumably that is what parliament permitted when it set it up?
    Pretty well, yes.
    Which is why Mahmoud said she would legislate if they didn’t change the policy. I guess it’s time to show she meant it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,658

    .. part of me enjoying the Dow Jones plummeting today. The most satisfying is Tesla.

    I don’t want to see America in the kind of state it’s in currently. But Trump / Musk deserve everything coming to them

    Especially as its all completely self-inflicted and wouldn't be happening if they weren't being stupid.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,505

    Taz said:

    TESLA sales crash in China:

    "On Monday, the China Passenger Car Association said that the overall trend of new-energy passenger-car sales was “strong,” with sales of market leader BYD Co. Ltd. BYDDY rising 7.3% to 318,233 units, according to a Google translation of official data.

    But it certainly wasn’t strong for Tesla, which saw sales sink 51.5% to 30,688 EVs in February, from the 63,238 units sold in January."

    I’d be interested in @RochdalePioneers take. ISTM BYD make some decent models.

    My old boss had a Tesla. Didn’t like it.
    BYD are so hot right now. Never mind the cars, they are vertically integrated and make batteries for themselves and others.
    JustBuyABYD?
    As always with cars it's horses for courses. Whatever the powertrain. I'm not clear that BYD is remotely leading edge with the technology and none of the cars make me go "ooh" the way that Polestar 3 did on Saturday.

    Afficionados of particular brands will stay loyal to them. I've never been loyal to any car brand - and I'm not now despite the YouTube channel. I've got multiple directions I can evolve the channel into and other channels in development. And my "loyalty" to Tesla is me slagging them off - I could have grown much faster had I done a sycophantic fanboi channel.

    But as we talked about earlier, there would be something deeply funny about binning Tesla because of the CEO and defecting to Polestar...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    kle4 said:

    It appears that the judges are defying the Government on two tier sentencing. Time for Shabana Mahmood to show what she's made of.

    https://order-order.com/2025/03/10/sentencing-council-slaps-down-mahmoods-call-to-scrap-two-tier-guidance/

    Does the Sentencing Council have the authority absent legislation to continue to apply its rules on courts? Presumably that is what parliament permitted when it set it up?
    Yup - it is a quango setup so that the politicians can claim "nothing to do with us" when someone complains about sentencing. *And* the politicians can get plaudits at the right social functions for being impeccably legalistic and hands off when it comes to sentencing.
    Understandable motivation but may have gone too far in several areas. It's never stopped politicians campaigning on hang 'em and flog'em rules when they want to.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    It's interesting how unified Germany is, if you exclude the AfD supporters.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    So it's Carney as expected. Flash in the pan poll bump, or a change of Leader and a menacing Trump really sufficient to change the minds of 15-20% of Canadians?

    I suspect the Liberals will try and turn the general election into a referendum on Trump / Canada relations but in the end the Conservatives will scrape home as the Canadians look to be ready for a change.
    Vance could quite conceivably be even worse.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,655


    Tom Watson
    @tomwatson
    ·
    7h
    Big movement in that Siena poll - Trump collapsing in the downstate suburbs, from 58-41% last month to 46-51% today. That's 22 points in a month. And believe me, it's still moving.

    https://x.com/tomwatson/status/1899059976707924126
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,292

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:


    What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:

    1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.

    2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.

    3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.

    4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street

    5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.

    Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?

    You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
    And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
    Particularly as he is obese. Keep eating those burgers Donald!
    I'm afraid he's lost a few pounds recently. I just don’t think we can count on a rescue via health event. Plenty other ways he comes a cropper though.
    A health event that leads to President Vance is nothing to wish for.
    True. But I'd still prefer him to Trump.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    Scott_xP said:

    @nytmike
    NEW: In a major escalation in the fight between Trump and Perkins Coie, the firm has retained Williams & Connolly -- which has some of the most aggressive and fiercest litigators in the country -- to represent it. There were deep concerns in the legal community that no one was going to be willing to come forward to represent Perkins Coie against Trump.

    https://x.com/nytmike/status/1899161903986889126

    Good.
    That executive order is blatantly unconstitutional, but unless challenged will set another dismal precedent.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    kle4 said:

    It's interesting how unified Germany is, if you exclude the AfD supporters.

    Err the US Republican line may be slightly out of date.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    So it's Carney as expected. Flash in the pan poll bump, or a change of Leader and a menacing Trump really sufficient to change the minds of 15-20% of Canadians?

    I suspect the Liberals will try and turn the general election into a referendum on Trump / Canada relations but in the end the Conservatives will scrape home as the Canadians look to be ready for a change.
    Vance could quite conceivably be even worse.
    More focus and energy, albeit more mecurial hold on the base in that situation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    kle4 said:

    It's interesting how unified Germany is, if you exclude the AfD supporters.

    Err the US Republican line may be slightly out of date.
    Yes, that seems very implausuble right now. Not only because the leader ordered it, but a lot of americans seem to really dislike the defiance (albeit mild) shown by the Ukrainians at showing hesitance at doing a 'deal' - even though they appear to have accepted one will be done without US providing them more support.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729



    Tom Watson
    @tomwatson
    ·
    7h
    Big movement in that Siena poll - Trump collapsing in the downstate suburbs, from 58-41% last month to 46-51% today. That's 22 points in a month. And believe me, it's still moving.

    https://x.com/tomwatson/status/1899059976707924126

    With the very greatest of respect that they deserve to suburban Americans, Trump may be occupying the low end of expectations but nothing so far has been outwith his promises about the prices of goods, Ukraine, their allies, the federal government and more.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,279
    Evening all :)

    Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.

    Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.

    As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    Scott_xP said:

    Kelly has responded.

    @SenMarkKelly

    Traitor?

    Elon, if you don’t understand that defending freedom is a basic tenet of what makes America great and keeps us safe, maybe you should leave it to those of us who do.

    Unless the US is actually at war with Ukraine, then william is being very silly in backing Musk’s suggestion it’s “treason”.

    Perhaps they’re trying to tell us something ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,655
    “Trumpcession”
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,658
    It's pretty outrageous that Canada now has a PM that's not an MP (even if it will only be for a short time)

    Could a political party get away with that here? Maybe there's still time for a Boris comeback? :D
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,552
    Just catching up on the "bullying" of Rochdale.

    One of his "bullies" said this:

    "Telling people to buy Teslas is fucking stupid unless you actively want the destruction of democracy and European liberal civilisation. Or maybe you just don't care enough about those things."

    For sheer unadulterated wankery of the highest order this must surely win PB for the day.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    So it's Carney as expected. Flash in the pan poll bump, or a change of Leader and a menacing Trump really sufficient to change the minds of 15-20% of Canadians?

    I suspect the Liberals will try and turn the general election into a referendum on Trump / Canada relations but in the end the Conservatives will scrape home as the Canadians look to be ready for a change.
    Vance could quite conceivably be even worse.
    More focus and energy, albeit more mecurial hold on the base in that situation.
    More (and weirdly) ideological.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @nytmike
    NEW: In a major escalation in the fight between Trump and Perkins Coie, the firm has retained Williams & Connolly -- which has some of the most aggressive and fiercest litigators in the country -- to represent it. There were deep concerns in the legal community that no one was going to be willing to come forward to represent Perkins Coie against Trump.

    https://x.com/nytmike/status/1899161903986889126

    Good.
    That executive order is blatantly unconstitutional, but unless challenged will set another dismal precedent.
    And even the stuff that is unconstitutional stuff the Supreme Court may 'helpfully' offer suggestions of where the line is, that being their job after all, to give Trump direction on what he can manage.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,653
    kle4 said:

    It appears that the judges are defying the Government on two tier sentencing. Time for Shabana Mahmood to show what she's made of.

    https://order-order.com/2025/03/10/sentencing-council-slaps-down-mahmoods-call-to-scrap-two-tier-guidance/

    Does the Sentencing Council have the authority absent legislation to continue to apply its rules on courts? Presumably that is what parliament permitted when it set it up?
    If you mean does the SC guidance once issued bind the courts in general? Yes.

    The government does not want you to know that the Lord Chancellor is consulted on guidance before it is finalised and issued.

    Can parliament legislate to alter things either in general or in this particular case? Yes. But in this case the Lord Chancellor will look silly.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098

    Anyone have a theory on the ship collision. My first thought was Russia.

    It has happened in the past that coast guard or navy (in the UK and elsewhere) have boarded ships which are non-responsive to hails. And discovered that the vessel in on automatic pilot and everyone is asleep.

    The state of the international shipping industry is dire. Race to the bottom, with minimal standards for pay, equipment and everything else.
    In more ways than one.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    So it's Carney as expected. Flash in the pan poll bump, or a change of Leader and a menacing Trump really sufficient to change the minds of 15-20% of Canadians?

    I suspect the Liberals will try and turn the general election into a referendum on Trump / Canada relations but in the end the Conservatives will scrape home as the Canadians look to be ready for a change.
    I like when incumbent parties also campaign on the basis of it being time for a change, after they switch leader.

    It does sometimes work, despite not making massive sense.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,624
    GIN1138 said:

    It's pretty outrageous that Canada now has a PM that's not an MP (even if it will only be for a short time)

    Could a political party get away with that here? Maybe there's still time for a Boris comeback? :D

    It happened in 1964.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,863
    The Maga seem to think that Europe, or that legendary "deep state", is behind the attack on their beloved Elon.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,545

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:


    What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:

    1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.

    2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.

    3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.

    4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street

    5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.

    Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?

    You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
    And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
    ChatGPT says:

    A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
    But not a lifelong teetotaler and non smoker.
    A lot of these GOP teetotalers look shit faced for a decent proportion of the time. Isn't Hegseth a reformed drinker who can quite often be seen to be "tired and emotional".

    I note that a number of our PB Tory friends are busting Reform's balls for the Trump adjacent stance during the Presidential Election. Remind me what party do Johnson, Mogg, Patel, Braverman, Jenrick and to a lesser degree Badenoch belong to?

    Labour aren't out of the woods on this issue either. Starmer must be in agony for all those splinters from fence sitting over Trump evil.
    Starmer is having to walk a tightrope here. And I say that as someone who is pretty anti-Starmer.

    Sending a dead fish to the Whitehouse might make some people feel better, but might actually harm quite a lot of other people.

    Playing the stretch-it-out-game is the best option at this point, I think.
    I'd vote for the politician who sends the rotting fish to the Whitehouse. After the weekend it is more likely to be the fragrant Honest Bob than the hapless Starmer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    TOPPING said:

    Just catching up on the "bullying" of Rochdale.

    One of his "bullies" said this:

    "Telling people to buy Teslas is fucking stupid unless you actively want the destruction of democracy and European liberal civilisation. Or maybe you just don't care enough about those things."

    For sheer unadulterated wankery of the highest order this must surely win PB for the day.

    It was pretty effing tedious the first time around.
    Please don’t rehash the whole thing.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,653
    Scott_xP said:

    @nytmike
    NEW: In a major escalation in the fight between Trump and Perkins Coie, the firm has retained Williams & Connolly -- which has some of the most aggressive and fiercest litigators in the country -- to represent it. There were deep concerns in the legal community that no one was going to be willing to come forward to represent Perkins Coie against Trump.

    https://x.com/nytmike/status/1899161903986889126

    America has not yet run out of alpha lawyers wanting a big fight for a big fee! When it does we will know there is a problem.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,111

    Not sure if this has been posted but by-election incoming, sooner rather than later. Looks like Amesbury isn't going to let the recall petition run.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62z9ell358o

    Is there time to run it with the May locals? Chesire doesn't have any, but stretching Reform's campaigning resources might be helpful.
    Yes, though he'd have to resign in the next couple of weeks, and maybe sooner. I think the last day the writ could be moved for May 1 is a week on Friday but stand to be corrected. Not that he's resigned yet.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,189
    What ?

    Ham, mozzarella and … orange?! Australia invents a new topping to enrage the pizza purists
    https://www.theguardian.com/food/2025/mar/10/ham-mozzarella-orange-australia-invents-new-topping-enrage-pizza-purists
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,896
    kle4 said:

    It's interesting how unified Germany is, if you exclude the AfD supporters.

    Why exclude them?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,292

    The Maga seem to think that Europe, or that legendary "deep state", is behind the attack on their beloved Elon.

    Perhaps it was Jackson Lamb and his slow horses. Specifically Roddy Ho who's a total tech genius.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 23,935
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Kelly has responded.

    @SenMarkKelly

    Traitor?

    Elon, if you don’t understand that defending freedom is a basic tenet of what makes America great and keeps us safe, maybe you should leave it to those of us who do.

    Unless the US is actually at war with Ukraine, then william is being very silly in backing Musk’s suggestion it’s “treason”.

    Perhaps they’re trying to tell us something ?
    It is pretty clear what side Trump, Vance and Musk are on. Rubio and some others are probably on the other side dumbly hoping for a hail mary.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,829
    edited March 10

    Musk the unifier:

    image

    How does that twat Musk rationalise that one?
    Kelly is trying to undermine the foreign policy of the US government.
    What is the foreign policy of the US government?

    (Also: on your basis, saying "we shouldn't invade Canada" is also tantamount to undermining the foreign policy of the US government.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,896
    Quote from Ben Walker of the New Statesman and Britain Elects.

    "I don't think the events of Mr Lowe et al have changed the arithmetic at all, really. Another SW1 story failing to break through on the ground. This will be a tough fight."

    https://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/19327/runcorn-helsby?page=4
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 109
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.

    Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.

    As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.

    The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,460
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.

    Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.

    As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.

    He was considered, very sensibly as a possible VP candidate with Harris.

    Tim Walz got the job because of his home state, in the end. But Kelly was definitely on the short list. And for good reason.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    GIN1138 said:

    It's pretty outrageous that Canada now has a PM that's not an MP (even if it will only be for a short time)

    Could a political party get away with that here? Maybe there's still time for a Boris comeback? :D

    As a highly federal country measuring a few thousand miles each way in the cross-section, the average person probably feels no closer to an MP from across the country than they do to a senior federal official and minor celebrity.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,766
    edited March 10

    Musk the unifier:

    image

    How does that twat Musk rationalise that one?
    Kelly is a traitor to Putin and therefore to Putin's representative in the White House.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,305
    GIN1138 said:

    It's pretty outrageous that Canada now has a PM that's not an MP (even if it will only be for a short time)

    Could a political party get away with that here? Maybe there's still time for a Boris comeback? :D

    NOOOOOO
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,292
    Nigelb said:

    What ?

    Ham, mozzarella and … orange?! Australia invents a new topping to enrage the pizza purists
    https://www.theguardian.com/food/2025/mar/10/ham-mozzarella-orange-australia-invents-new-topping-enrage-pizza-purists

    No.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,829
    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    It's interesting how unified Germany is, if you exclude the AfD supporters.

    Why exclude them?
    I think @kle4 is merely pointing out that 80% of the German electorate is, with the exception being AfD supporters.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,460

    Anyone have a theory on the ship collision. My first thought was Russia.

    It has happened in the past that coast guard or navy (in the UK and elsewhere) have boarded ships which are non-responsive to hails. And discovered that the vessel in on automatic pilot and everyone is asleep.

    The state of the international shipping industry is dire. Race to the bottom, with minimal standards for pay, equipment and everything else.
    In more ways than one.
    Pun was intended.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129
    rcs1000 said:

    Musk the unifier:

    image

    How does that twat Musk rationalise that one?
    Kelly is trying to undermine the foreign policy of the US government.
    What is the foreign policy of the US government?

    (Also: on your basis, saying "we shouldn't invade Canada" is also tantamount to undermining the foreign policy of the US government.)
    If the US were involved in a military conflict with Canada then it would indeed be treachery to undermine the war effort, but there's no reason to think that Governor Carney will precipitate such an action.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,460
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    It's interesting how unified Germany is, if you exclude the AfD supporters.

    Why exclude them?
    I think @kle4 is merely pointing out that 80% of the German electorate is, with the exception being AfD supporters.
    Some people think that the 80% are the outliers......
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,863
    Is that correct that Tesla stocks are down 14% today?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,292

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:


    What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:

    1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.

    2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.

    3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.

    4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street

    5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.

    Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?

    You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
    And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
    ChatGPT says:

    A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
    But not a lifelong teetotaler and non smoker.
    A lot of these GOP teetotalers look shit faced for a decent proportion of the time. Isn't Hegseth a reformed drinker who can quite often be seen to be "tired and emotional".

    I note that a number of our PB Tory friends are busting Reform's balls for the Trump adjacent stance during the Presidential Election. Remind me what party do Johnson, Mogg, Patel, Braverman, Jenrick and to a lesser degree Badenoch belong to?

    Labour aren't out of the woods on this issue either. Starmer must be in agony for all those splinters from fence sitting over Trump evil.
    Starmer is having to walk a tightrope here. And I say that as someone who is pretty anti-Starmer.

    Sending a dead fish to the Whitehouse might make some people feel better, but might actually harm quite a lot of other people.

    Playing the stretch-it-out-game is the best option at this point, I think.
    I'd vote for the politician who sends the rotting fish to the Whitehouse. After the weekend it is more likely to be the fragrant Honest Bob than the hapless Starmer.
    But when Keir turns he's gonna turn HARD.

    (Working on my Leon. Getting quite good at it now)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.

    Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.

    As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.

    The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
    Seriously, what is Musk taking?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,155
    Taz said:

    kamski said:

    Taz said:

    eek said:

    Taz said:

    IanB2 said:

    Tesla stock sinking like a stone today :):) £££

    You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
    I'll
    You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
    If you've got any TESLA shares you need better financial advice...
    I personally haven’t so GFY.

    However they are a component of various ETF’s and tracker funds given the size they are.
    Show us some figures on how much the median UK household would lose even if Tesla shares went to zero, or GFY Y
    No, and there’s a superfluous Y in there too.

    😂
    OK so I guess we can all go back to celebrating the fall in the Tesla share price like normal people.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001
    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    It's interesting how unified Germany is, if you exclude the AfD supporters.

    Why exclude them?
    I'm not saying they should be, it was a comment on how they are so far apart from the others they are distoring the average.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:


    What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:

    1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.

    2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.

    3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.

    4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street

    5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.

    Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?

    You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
    And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
    ChatGPT says:

    A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
    But not a lifelong teetotaler and non smoker.
    A lot of these GOP teetotalers look shit faced for a decent proportion of the time. Isn't Hegseth a reformed drinker who can quite often be seen to be "tired and emotional".

    I note that a number of our PB Tory friends are busting Reform's balls for the Trump adjacent stance during the Presidential Election. Remind me what party do Johnson, Mogg, Patel, Braverman, Jenrick and to a lesser degree Badenoch belong to?

    Labour aren't out of the woods on this issue either. Starmer must be in agony for all those splinters from fence sitting over Trump evil.
    Starmer is having to walk a tightrope here. And I say that as someone who is pretty anti-Starmer.

    Sending a dead fish to the Whitehouse might make some people feel better, but might actually harm quite a lot of other people.

    Playing the stretch-it-out-game is the best option at this point, I think.
    I'd vote for the politician who sends the rotting fish to the Whitehouse. After the weekend it is more likely to be the fragrant Honest Bob than the hapless Starmer.
    But when Keir turns he's gonna turn HARD.

    (Working on my Leon. Getting quite good at it now)
    A. Don't
    B. No you're not.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,975
    Greetings from Basel.

    I see the BBC having got rid of Lineker now want to reduce the amount if time spent on highlights on MOTD with more time on analysis/punditry.

    They really are fffing bonkers.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,460
    rcs1000 said:

    Musk the unifier:

    image

    How does that twat Musk rationalise that one?
    Kelly is trying to undermine the foreign policy of the US government.
    What is the foreign policy of the US government?

    (Also: on your basis, saying "we shouldn't invade Canada" is also tantamount to undermining the foreign policy of the US government.)
    As a Senator, Kelly is, under the Constitution, part of the formulation of foreign policy.

    From treaties to oversight committees to votes on various things - the Senate has a specified role.

    So he has every right to opine on the foreign policy of the US Government. He is one of the people who makes it!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    It's interesting how unified Germany is, if you exclude the AfD supporters.

    Why exclude them?
    I think kle4 is merely pointing out that 80% of the German electorate is, with the exception being AfD supporters.
    Some people think that the 80% are the outliers......
    That's what Twitter tells them presumably.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,460
    kle4 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    kle4 said:

    It's interesting how unified Germany is, if you exclude the AfD supporters.

    Why exclude them?
    I think kle4 is merely pointing out that 80% of the German electorate is, with the exception being AfD supporters.
    Some people think that the 80% are the outliers......
    That's what Twitter tells them presumably.
    Is that Twatter you are talking about?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,655
    Sam Stein
    @samstein
    ·
    1h
    He'll fix the government like he fixed Twitter, they said
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098

    Greetings from Basel.

    I see the BBC having got rid of Lineker now want to reduce the amount if time spent on highlights on MOTD with more time on analysis/punditry.

    They really are fffing bonkers.

    Surely it's just the stooge the Tories put in as Chairman in 2023 who has said that?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,460

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.

    Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.

    As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.

    The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
    Seriously, what is Musk taking?
    Ketamine, so they say.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,142

    rcs1000 said:

    Musk the unifier:

    image

    How does that twat Musk rationalise that one?
    Kelly is trying to undermine the foreign policy of the US government.
    What is the foreign policy of the US government?

    (Also: on your basis, saying "we shouldn't invade Canada" is also tantamount to undermining the foreign policy of the US government.)
    If the US were involved in a military conflict with Canada then it would indeed be treachery to undermine the war effort, but there's no reason to think that Governor Carney will precipitate such an action.
    How about Teaboy Trump?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.

    Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.

    As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.

    The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
    Seriously, what is Musk taking?
    Ketamin, supposedly, though who knows. I defy even a Musk fan to explain how he is acting stably in recent months, flitting about on government business and ranting and raving on twitter all the time.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,863
    Curious that Croatia seems to be one of only two NATO members to decline the Ukraine security without the US meeting in Paris, tomorrow.

    Montenegro isn"t surprising, but Croatia is an EU nation.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,292

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    MattW said:

    rcs1000 said:

    algarkirk said:

    Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:


    What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:

    1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.

    2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.

    3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.

    4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street

    5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.

    Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?

    You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
    And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
    ChatGPT says:

    A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
    But not a lifelong teetotaler and non smoker.
    A lot of these GOP teetotalers look shit faced for a decent proportion of the time. Isn't Hegseth a reformed drinker who can quite often be seen to be "tired and emotional".

    I note that a number of our PB Tory friends are busting Reform's balls for the Trump adjacent stance during the Presidential Election. Remind me what party do Johnson, Mogg, Patel, Braverman, Jenrick and to a lesser degree Badenoch belong to?

    Labour aren't out of the woods on this issue either. Starmer must be in agony for all those splinters from fence sitting over Trump evil.
    Starmer is having to walk a tightrope here. And I say that as someone who is pretty anti-Starmer.

    Sending a dead fish to the Whitehouse might make some people feel better, but might actually harm quite a lot of other people.

    Playing the stretch-it-out-game is the best option at this point, I think.
    I'd vote for the politician who sends the rotting fish to the Whitehouse. After the weekend it is more likely to be the fragrant Honest Bob than the hapless Starmer.
    But when Keir turns he's gonna turn HARD.

    (Working on my Leon. Getting quite good at it now)
    A. Don't
    B. No you're not.
    I am! But don't worry, just every so often and not very often.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    rcs1000 said:

    Musk the unifier:

    image

    How does that twat Musk rationalise that one?
    Kelly is trying to undermine the foreign policy of the US government.
    What is the foreign policy of the US government?

    (Also: on your basis, saying "we shouldn't invade Canada" is also tantamount to undermining the foreign policy of the US government.)
    If the US were involved in a military conflict with Canada then it would indeed be treachery to undermine the war effort, but there's no reason to think that Governor Carney will precipitate such an action.
    With that contempt for a Commonwealth realm, one would hope you're not a subject of one yourself, since we're in treason-season after all.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,658
    DavidL said:

    Heard Nathan Vance on PM this evening. A cousin of the VP, he has been fighting for Ukraine in recent years. Not only is the wrong Vance in the White House, it also reminded me that there are many, many Americans who are decent, moderate people that we have so much in common with. No matter how much Trump pisses us off, and he will, we need to remember that.

    Well said!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,653
    GIN1138 said:

    It's pretty outrageous that Canada now has a PM that's not an MP (even if it will only be for a short time)

    Could a political party get away with that here? Maybe there's still time for a Boris comeback? :D

    I think they would get away with it if our powerful neighbour said it was going to annex us.

    Secondly, Canada is a parliamentary democracy. Parliament is elected. If the winning party/coalition of that parliament can command confidence having appointed a non MP in Carney, then it has that degree of legitimacy. A VONC is available if wanted.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,098
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.

    Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.

    As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.

    The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
    Seriously, what is Musk taking?
    Ketamin, supposedly, though who knows. I defy even a Musk fan to explain how he is acting stably in recent months, flitting about on government business and ranting and raving on twitter all the time.
    Acts like he has a serious 'issue' if you ask me.
  • Frank_BoothFrank_Booth Posts: 109
    DavidL said:

    Heard Nathan Vance on PM this evening. A cousin of the VP, he has been fighting for Ukraine in recent years. Not only is the wrong Vance in the White House, it also reminded me that there are many, many Americans who are decent, moderate people that we have so much in common with. No matter how much Trump pisses us off, and he will, we need to remember that.

    Most Americans do not appear to want this imperialistic aggrandisement. They want the southern border controlled and a decent living.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,863

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.

    Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.

    As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.

    The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
    Seriously, what is Musk taking?
    Ketamine, so they say.
    Special K, as the early 1990's raving generation used to know it.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,658
    kle4 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    Extraordinary Mark Kelly can be called a "traitor" - it's hard to think of someone whose record is as far removed from treason or treachery. I do idly wonder if he could or would be a viable Democrat candidate for POTUS in 2028 - his problem unfortunately would be the Democrat Party. I think were they to take a sensible view of politics, the Democrats would relaise he would likely thrash Vance or A.N Other Republican.

    Carney's coronation as Canada's next "Governor" (sorry, Prime Minister) makes the forthcoming election more interesting though Trump's disdain for Poilievre's Canadian nationalism has likely done the latter a power of good.

    As for the impending by election in Runcorn & Helsby, as someone else once said, too early to tell. I imagine Labour will want a quick contest - perhaps May 1st - and may have told Amesbury to hurry up and resign so it can be called. A longer campaign gives Reform, the Conservatives and the Greens a chance to organise.

    The only way Kelly could be called a traitor is if the US currently sees itself at war with Ukraine. So maybe we should thank Musk for his honesty.
    Seriously, what is Musk taking?
    Ketamin, supposedly, though who knows. I defy even a Musk fan to explain how he is acting stably in recent months, flitting about on government business and ranting and raving on twitter all the time.
    Imagine the conspiracy theories if he OD's...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,701
    kle4 said:

    It appears that the judges are defying the Government on two tier sentencing. Time for Shabana Mahmood to show what she's made of.

    https://order-order.com/2025/03/10/sentencing-council-slaps-down-mahmoods-call-to-scrap-two-tier-guidance/

    Does the Sentencing Council have the authority absent legislation to continue to apply its rules on courts? Presumably that is what parliament permitted when it set it up?
    Has anyone come up with any evidence yet that the proposed, and fully consulted upon 2023/4, changes will actually cause any 2 tier sentancing?

    Or are we still on dog whistles, rhetoric and a Minister in a minor panic?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,292
    DavidL said:

    Heard Nathan Vance on PM this evening. A cousin of the VP, he has been fighting for Ukraine in recent years. Not only is the wrong Vance in the White House, it also reminded me that there are many, many Americans who are decent, moderate people that we have so much in common with. No matter how much Trump pisses us off, and he will, we need to remember that.

    It's a great country. No need at all for the MAGA "again".
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,243

    Is that correct that Tesla stocks are down 14% today?

    No that's fake news.

    They're down 15%.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,129
    EPG said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Musk the unifier:

    image

    How does that twat Musk rationalise that one?
    Kelly is trying to undermine the foreign policy of the US government.
    What is the foreign policy of the US government?

    (Also: on your basis, saying "we shouldn't invade Canada" is also tantamount to undermining the foreign policy of the US government.)
    If the US were involved in a military conflict with Canada then it would indeed be treachery to undermine the war effort, but there's no reason to think that Governor Carney will precipitate such an action.
    With that contempt for a Commonwealth realm, one would hope you're not a subject of one yourself, since we're in treason-season after all.
    There's a lot to be said for a concerted effort to rid ourselves of American influences and to reassert our independence.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,001

    DavidL said:

    Heard Nathan Vance on PM this evening. A cousin of the VP, he has been fighting for Ukraine in recent years. Not only is the wrong Vance in the White House, it also reminded me that there are many, many Americans who are decent, moderate people that we have so much in common with. No matter how much Trump pisses us off, and he will, we need to remember that.

    Most Americans do not appear to want this imperialistic aggrandisement. They want the southern border controlled and a decent living.
    The President has been throwing his weight around internationally in very imperialistic fashion.
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