Ontario's premier announced that effective today the province is charging 25% more for electricity to 1.5 million Americans in response to Trump's trade war. Ontario provides electricity to MN, NY and MI.
“If the US escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely,” he said.
Anyone know if betfair normally has a market on Canadian elections? Trump has made that one look a lot more interesting, but couldn't see a market yet...
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
Just left Ukraine. What I saw proved to me we can’t give up on the Ukrainian people. Everyone wants this war to end, but any agreement has to protect Ukraine’s security and can’t be a giveaway to Putin. Let me tell you about my trip and why it’s important we stand with Ukraine.🧵
There's a hint there of one of the potential chinks in Trump's armour - inability to control the media.
I can see several types of check and balance that may hold him in various ways:
1 - Lawyers and Independent Judiciary where it exists. 2 - Mainstream and Independent Media. 3 - Civil society - eg Town Hall meetings, people with independent self-supporting platforms. 4 - Other countries kicking back. 5 - Reality reaching erstwhile supporters.
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
ChatGPT says:
A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
An acronym is needed to abbreviate references to Trumpism. Might AGPOK - the American Gangster Plutocratic Oligarchic Kleptocracy serve? But there must be better....
If you are a white straight male who works in the private sector and lives in the Midwest and South or Pennsylvania and who voted for Trump last November is there much that he is doing you don't support? You might work in manufacturing or used to work in industry or be a farmer and if you don't buy many non US goods and your business or employer doesn't export much abroad you would probably welcome his tariffs as increasing demand for the goods and products you produce and increasing rustbelt jobs.
You are probably anti immigration and approve of his deportations (but welcome his offer of visas to South African white farmers), are anti woke and distrust DC so like Musk's slashing of the Federal government and Trump's ending EDI and also likely couldn't give a toss about Ukraine which in your view is just one white European nation fighting another white European nation and the US could spend money at home rather than send more to Zelensky. You may also be a white evangelical Christian and pro Israel so would be happy if Trump's resorts took over Gaza and replaced Hamas.
Where it might impact is independents, especially if cost of living rises with the tariffs. The management of midterm elections is the responsibility of Congress not the President
Trump only won by 1.6% - the notion that he won by a landslide is a myth. Although nothing will dissuade the MAGA core from supporting the GOP there are millions of others that could easily switch if they don't like the current direction of travel - be that dissing erstwhile allies like Canada and Europe, cosying up to Putin or wrecking the economy with his hokey-pokey tariff policies.
Just left Ukraine. What I saw proved to me we can’t give up on the Ukrainian people. Everyone wants this war to end, but any agreement has to protect Ukraine’s security and can’t be a giveaway to Putin. Let me tell you about my trip and why it’s important we stand with Ukraine.🧵
There's a hint there of one of the potential chinks in Trump's armour - inability to control the media.
I can see several types of check and balance that may hold him in various ways:
1 - Lawyers and Independent Judiciary where it exists. 2 - Mainstream and Independent Media. 3 - Civil society - eg Town Hall meetings, people with independent self-supporting platforms. 4 - Other countries kicking back. 5 - Reality reaching erstwhile supporters.
And the important thing is that all those checks and balances take a bit of time to happen. (For example, a couple of cases have reached the Supreme Court and they have just-about said "oi Trump, no", or words to that effect.) So there's a bit of hope there.
An acronym is needed to abbreviate references to Trumpism. Might AGPOK - the American Gangster Plutocratic Oligarchic Kleptocracy serve? But there must be better....
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
ChatGPT says:
A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
And it’s why Dems are polling so poorly right now: their own voters and activists are furious at the invisibility.
Yet, I think Dem leadership are doing the right thing. I’m thinking of two examples. The segment in Lawrence of Arabia film, where the British “went invisible” letting the Arabs fail. And Eisenhower going to play golf the day Sputnik went up, leaving the Russians to tackle everyone’s awkward what it means for airspace and sovereignty questions.
Keep giving the new administration all the space and airtime they need, till they eventually fail. And then call it a bloody disgrace, that should never be repeated. And dine out electorally for a long time on the pain the madness inflicted on all the voters.
Just left Ukraine. What I saw proved to me we can’t give up on the Ukrainian people. Everyone wants this war to end, but any agreement has to protect Ukraine’s security and can’t be a giveaway to Putin. Let me tell you about my trip and why it’s important we stand with Ukraine.🧵
There's a hint there of one of the potential chinks in Trump's armour - inability to control the media.
I can see several types of check and balance that may hold him in various ways:
1 - Lawyers and Independent Judiciary where it exists. 2 - Mainstream and Independent Media. 3 - Civil society - eg Town Hall meetings, people with independent self-supporting platforms. 4 - Other countries kicking back. 5 - Reality reaching erstwhile supporters.
An optimistic take is that there is the potential for a virtuous feedback loop:
a) Trump does stupid things and causes damage (market down, prices up, job cuts etc) b) Trump becomes less popular as a result c) More people are willing to stand up to an unpopular President than a popular one - cue more negative coverage
Now Trump may well double down. But that will see him get more and more unpopular, which he hates.
Or possibly, just possibly, he moderates and focuses on the parts of his agenda that are less damaging.
...But then, to be honest, I find it amazing that he still has positive approval ratings on average, so I can't say I'm too optimistic about the moderating path happening.
Just left Ukraine. What I saw proved to me we can’t give up on the Ukrainian people. Everyone wants this war to end, but any agreement has to protect Ukraine’s security and can’t be a giveaway to Putin. Let me tell you about my trip and why it’s important we stand with Ukraine.🧵
There's a hint there of one of the potential chinks in Trump's armour - inability to control the media.
I can see several types of check and balance that may hold him in various ways:
1 - Lawyers and Independent Judiciary where it exists. 2 - Mainstream and Independent Media. 3 - Civil society - eg Town Hall meetings, people with independent self-supporting platforms. 4 - Other countries kicking back. 5 - Reality reaching erstwhile supporters.
We can but hope. However these forces work two ways; they also increase the prospect of a Trumpian coup in which, after some Reichstag Fire event we enter Germany 1933 world WRT free speech, media, elections and so on.
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
ChatGPT says:
A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
But not a lifelong teetotaler and non smoker.
OTOH there's his obesity, the impact of 9762 Big Macs, and whatever it is that prevented him from disclosing his medical history as has been the routine for years.
Just left Ukraine. What I saw proved to me we can’t give up on the Ukrainian people. Everyone wants this war to end, but any agreement has to protect Ukraine’s security and can’t be a giveaway to Putin. Let me tell you about my trip and why it’s important we stand with Ukraine.🧵
There's a hint there of one of the potential chinks in Trump's armour - inability to control the media.
I can see several types of check and balance that may hold him in various ways:
1 - Lawyers and Independent Judiciary where it exists. 2 - Mainstream and Independent Media. 3 - Civil society - eg Town Hall meetings, people with independent self-supporting platforms. 4 - Other countries kicking back. 5 - Reality reaching erstwhile supporters.
An optimistic take is that there is the potential for a virtuous feedback loop:
a) Trump does stupid things and causes damage (market down, prices up, job cuts etc) b) Trump becomes less popular as a result c) More people are willing to stand up to an unpopular President than a popular one - cue more negative coverage
Now Trump may well double down. But that will see him get more and more unpopular, which he hates.
Or possibly, just possibly, he moderates and focuses on the parts of his agenda that are less damaging.
...But then, to be honest, I find it amazing that he still has positive approval ratings on average, so I can't say I'm too optimistic about the moderating path happening.
Biden was much further in positive territory at this time of the presidency. He stayed in the mid 50s approval until summer 2021 then sank to the low 40s and stayed there. Trump is already in the mid 40s.
Got to ask what would be the sane share price for a car company not owned by Musk I suspect the share price should be 15-20 P/E which would be between 30-$45 a share..
Hence it's got a long long way still to go..
Thinking about it I'm sure @rcs1000 can have a better stab at that answer than me.
Very interesting one; with Reform in a mess + association with Trumpism this should be safe for Labour now; but the Spring statement could change a lot of things.
The Estuary crash is really bad place to happen for wildlife and the Environment. Nesting season is starting now. And there’s growing seal populations too, as well as important sea grass.
It’s not just pilot fuel leakage but other chemicals from Portuguese ship that can be a big concern. Very bad thing from environment point of view and bad timing. 🥺
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
If you've got any TESLA shares you need better financial advice...
Elon Musk says today's X outage was caused by a "massive cyberattack" and the company is "tracing" the perpetrator.
Don't be surprised if he blames, obviously without evidence, 'Zelensky government-associated hackers' as a politically convenient scapegoat for his own mismanagement.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
It makes up just over 1% of a typical passive global equity portfolio. Its share price could go to zero and the average investor wouldn't even notice the change in the context of wider moves (S&P 500 up 10% last 12 months, down 2.5% today).
And anyone who holds more than 1% of their portfolio in Tesla, well they had every chance to cash out their above-market gains earlier. No sympathy for them on the way down.
So people can enjoy the Tesla share price falling off a cliff with a clear conscience.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
If you've got any TESLA shares you need better financial advice...
They'll be a component part of any sp or global tracker
I suspect a very serious fiscal crisis could incur. And if that is serious enough the individual states break out in separate individual countries to keep order and ensure basic services continue.... keeping all the states together in a federal system incursions entropy.... if the means of handling that entropy (money, cultural capital, institutions and legitimacy) drops away... so does the federal system.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
Bollocks. Any portfolio manager worth his bonus would have pulled out of Tesla yonks ago. Stop shilling for the elon/Trump empire.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
If you've got any TESLA shares you need better financial advice...
I personally haven’t so GFY.
However they are a component of various ETF’s and tracker funds given the size they are.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
Bollocks. Any portfolio manager worth his bonus would have pulled out of Tesla yonks ago. Stop shilling for the elon/Trump empire.
People need to sell their Teslas, and it’s probably wise to divest Tesla stock.
This is not “hurting investors”, it’s simply accounting for political risk and recognising that the brand is effectively a proxy for “MAGA” if not a form of techno-fascism.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
If you've got any TESLA shares you need better financial advice...
They'll be a component part of any sp or global tracker
Exactly. Most people will have them as part of their pension fund without even knowing.
I suspect a very serious fiscal crisis could incur. And if that is serious enough the individual states break out in separate individual countries to keep order and ensure basic services continue.... keeping all the states together in a federal system incursions entropy.... if the means of handling that entropy (money, cultural capital, institutions and legitimacy) drops away... so does the federal system.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
If you've got any TESLA shares you need better financial advice...
I personally haven’t so GFY.
However they are a component of various ETF’s and tracker funds given the size they are.
But an insignificant unless you've purposefully invested in Tesla or sector specific EFT / trackers connected to the firm..
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
ChatGPT says:
A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
But not a lifelong teetotaler and non smoker.
A lot of these GOP teetotalers look shit faced for a decent proportion of the time. Isn't Hegseth a reformed drinker who can quite often be seen to be "tired and emotional".
I note that a number of our PB Tory friends are busting Reform's balls for the Trump adjacent stance during the Presidential Election. Remind me what party do Johnson, Mogg, Patel, Braverman, Jenrick and to a lesser degree Badenoch belong to?
Labour aren't out of the woods on this issue either. Starmer must be in agony for all those splinters from fence sitting over Trump evil.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
If you've got any TESLA shares you need better financial advice...
I personally haven’t so GFY.
However they are a component of various ETF’s and tracker funds given the size they are.
But an insignificant unless you've purposefully invested in Tesla or sector specific EFT / trackers connected to the firm..
Got to ask what would be the sane share price for a car company not owned by Musk I suspect the share price should be 15-20 P/E which would be between 30-$45 a share..
Hence it's got a long long way still to go..
Thinking about it I'm sure @rcs1000 can have a better stab at that answer than me.
When much of the world thinks they are being sold a turd-burger, not sure how much faith you can put in past sales.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
If you've got any TESLA shares you need better financial advice...
I personally haven’t so GFY.
However they are a component of various ETF’s and tracker funds given the size they are.
But an insignificant unless you've purposefully invested in Tesla or sector specific EFT / trackers connected to the firm..
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
If you've got any TESLA shares you need better financial advice...
I personally haven’t so GFY.
However they are a component of various ETF’s and tracker funds given the size they are.
Show us some figures on how much the median UK household would lose even if Tesla shares went to zero, or GFY Y
People need to sell their Teslas, and it’s probably wise to divest Tesla stock.
This is not “hurting investors”, it’s simply accounting for political risk and recognising that the brand is effectively a proxy for “MAGA” if not a form of techno-fascism.
People need to sell their Teslas, and it’s probably wise to divest Tesla stock.
This is not “hurting investors”, it’s simply accounting for political risk and recognising that the brand is effectively a proxy for “MAGA” if not a form of techno-fascism.
Got to ask what would be the sane share price for a car company not owned by Musk I suspect the share price should be 15-20 P/E which would be between 30-$45 a share..
Hence it's got a long long way still to go..
Thinking about it I'm sure @rcs1000 can have a better stab at that answer than me.
It’s not just a car company and it’s pricing in future growth rather than just current earnings.
"On Monday, the China Passenger Car Association said that the overall trend of new-energy passenger-car sales was “strong,” with sales of market leader BYD Co. Ltd. BYDDY rising 7.3% to 318,233 units, according to a Google translation of official data.
But it certainly wasn’t strong for Tesla, which saw sales sink 51.5% to 30,688 EVs in February, from the 63,238 units sold in January."
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
"The value of investments can go down as well as up".
Worrying about the value of people's savings is not valid reason to artificially prop up a share price. Indeed, diversification is supposed to mitigate the risk that a CEO randomly turns into a Nazi, so the index tracker is going its job in that respect.
It does not help however that the same individual has untrammelled power over the US government... but my European defence stocks are doing some good work.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
If you've got any TESLA shares you need better financial advice...
I personally haven’t so GFY.
However they are a component of various ETF’s and tracker funds given the size they are.
Show us some figures on how much the median UK household would lose even if Tesla shares went to zero, or GFY Y
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
If you've got any TESLA shares you need better financial advice...
I personally haven’t so GFY.
However they are a component of various ETF’s and tracker funds given the size they are.
But an insignificant unless you've purposefully invested in Tesla or sector specific EFT / trackers connected to the firm..
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
"The value of investments can go down as well as up".
Worrying about the value of people's savings is not valid reason to artificially prop up a share price. Indeed, diversification is supposed to mitigate the risk that a CEO randomly turns into a Nazi, so the index tracker is going its job in that respect.
It does not help however that the same individual has untrammelled power over the US government... but my European defence stocks are doing some good work.
How was Tesla artifically propped up ?
I bought BAE stock when Russia invaded Ukraine, done well.
Elon Musk says today's X outage was caused by a "massive cyberattack" and the company is "tracing" the perpetrator.
Don't be surprised if he blames, obviously without evidence, 'Zelensky government-associated hackers' as a politically convenient scapegoat for his own mismanagement.
Didn't Musk's government literally stop all Russian cyberattack counter measures in the last few days?
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
Particularly as he is obese. Keep eating those burgers Donald!
Elon is going to blame somebody for the attack, and then somebody else is going to claim credit
It will be instructive who believes what
If I were him I’d be looking at the people in charge of their defences. My last company had thousands of cyber attacks a day. It was just par for the course.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
I don't agree with the beating up of Rochdale over his YouTube channel but anything we can do to punish MAGA adjacent corporations is OK by me. Quietly cancelling my Amazon Prime membership however useful might be one small pain in Bezos's side. If enough cancel it will be a massive pain in his arse, and he might think twice about turning WaPo into the National Enquirer.
Forty years ago the Eliza Tinsley company broke South African sanctions and provided the Apartheid Government with chains and manacles to shackle Nelson Mandela to his cell wall in Roben Island. I have never subsequently bought any of their products. Bastards!
Rubio saying that US weapons and intelligence block could be rescinded tomorrow, so fingers crossed. Wonder if Trump is feeling betrayed by Putin not showing up to this new round of talks in Saudi Arabia.
"On Monday, the China Passenger Car Association said that the overall trend of new-energy passenger-car sales was “strong,” with sales of market leader BYD Co. Ltd. BYDDY rising 7.3% to 318,233 units, according to a Google translation of official data.
But it certainly wasn’t strong for Tesla, which saw sales sink 51.5% to 30,688 EVs in February, from the 63,238 units sold in January."
I’d be interested in @RochdalePioneers take. ISTM BYD make some decent models.
Elon is going to blame somebody for the attack, and then somebody else is going to claim credit
It will be instructive who believes what
Seems there’s already speculation on this. At least one person has used the “Soros-linked” phrase, which seems to be the new MAGA flavour of the month.
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
ChatGPT says:
A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
But not a lifelong teetotaler and non smoker.
A lot of these GOP teetotalers look shit faced for a decent proportion of the time. Isn't Hegseth a reformed drinker who can quite often be seen to be "tired and emotional".
I note that a number of our PB Tory friends are busting Reform's balls for the Trump adjacent stance during the Presidential Election. Remind me what party do Johnson, Mogg, Patel, Braverman, Jenrick and to a lesser degree Badenoch belong to?
Labour aren't out of the woods on this issue either. Starmer must be in agony for all those splinters from fence sitting over Trump evil.
Starmer is having to walk a tightrope here. And I say that as someone who is pretty anti-Starmer.
Sending a dead fish to the Whitehouse might make some people feel better, but might actually harm quite a lot of other people.
Playing the stretch-it-out-game is the best option at this point, I think.
People need to sell their Teslas, and it’s probably wise to divest Tesla stock.
This is not “hurting investors”, it’s simply accounting for political risk and recognising that the brand is effectively a proxy for “MAGA” if not a form of techno-fascism.
Plus they spontaneously combust.
No, they don’t. I know you like your MAGA sourced anti-EV stuff, but EVs have a vastly lower fire rate than ICE vehicles.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
"The value of investments can go down as well as up".
Worrying about the value of people's savings is not valid reason to artificially prop up a share price. Indeed, diversification is supposed to mitigate the risk that a CEO randomly turns into a Nazi, so the index tracker is going its job in that respect.
It does not help however that the same individual has untrammelled power over the US government... but my European defence stocks are doing some good work.
How was Tesla artifically propped up ?
I bought BAE stock when Russia invaded Ukraine, done well.
You're making a fuss about Tesla's share price crashing and hurting Tesla investors. Tough shit, it's a free market and people can invest their money however they feel fit.
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
I don't agree with the beating up of Rochdale over his YouTube channel but anything we can do to punish MAGA adjacent corporations is OK by me. Quietly cancelling my Amazon Prime membership however useful might be one small pain in Bezos's side. If enough cancel it will be a massive pain in his arse, and he might think twice about turning WaPo into the National Enquirer.
Forty years ago the Eliza Tinsley company broke South African sanctions and provided the Apartheid Government with chains and manacles to shackle Nelson Mandela to his cell wall in Roben Island. I have never subsequently bought any of their products. Bastards!
I agree, and IMV the bullying of Rochdale this morning was unseemly.
I took out a 30 day prime membership to get the Dr Who season 7 Blu-ray next day. I’ll cancel it. Also find it far cheaper to order directly for the sort of stuff I buy.
Elon Musk says today's X outage was caused by a "massive cyberattack" and the company is "tracing" the perpetrator.
Don't be surprised if he blames, obviously without evidence, 'Zelensky government-associated hackers' as a politically convenient scapegoat for his own mismanagement.
Didn't Musk's government literally stop all Russian cyberattack counter measures in the last few days?
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
ChatGPT says:
A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
But not a lifelong teetotaler and non smoker.
A lot of these GOP teetotalers look shit faced for a decent proportion of the time. Isn't Hegseth a reformed drinker who can quite often be seen to be "tired and emotional".
I note that a number of our PB Tory friends are busting Reform's balls for the Trump adjacent stance during the Presidential Election. Remind me what party do Johnson, Mogg, Patel, Braverman, Jenrick and to a lesser degree Badenoch belong to?
Labour aren't out of the woods on this issue either. Starmer must be in agony for all those splinters from fence sitting over Trump evil.
Starmer is having to walk a tightrope here. And I say that as someone who is pretty anti-Starmer.
Sending a dead fish to the Whitehouse might make some people feel better, but might actually harm quite a lot of other people.
Playing the stretch-it-out-game is the best option at this point, I think.
Starmer is fine because we all know he's utterly miserable having to deal with Trump, so he can do the diplomacy without anyone questioning his motives. Badenoch/Farage on the other hand...
@elonmusk There was (still is) a massive cyberattack against 𝕏.
We get attacked every day, but this was done with a lot of resources. Either a large, coordinated group and/or a country is involved.
Tracing …
Be funny as all fuck if it were Russia.
Although a non-zero chance it is Ukraine (or its supporters) as payback for Russia somewhow being given the co-ordinates of the Starlink terminals in Kursk.
I haven't read the thread but the Ukrainians are retreating in Kursk. Rumours that the Russians suddenly have very precise co-ordinates and intelligence as to where they are.
I saw a film a few years ago with Sydney Sweeney called Reality about intelligence leaks from the US. They have form on this. Snowden, Manning etc. It wouldn't surprise me if something big came out fairly soon.
The United States has prospered by being the country people want to do business with. You would think the CEO in chief would understand this.
Assuming you mean Trump and not Musk, he doesn't appear to understand different meanings of the word asylum. He's one of the dumbest people in America.
Thanks for the article. May I with apologies repost something relevant to this, a betting post of sorts, but there won't be a market:
What are the probabilities/possibilities in the medium term term for USA post 20 January 2025. Here are five:
1 Trump over time remains weird but normalises.
2 Slow boiling frog: carry on as if this is a normal regime but weird, gradually tightening the screw but, eg, don't invade Canada. NATO debilitated but not abolished. Free and fair elections continue.
3 Quicker boiling frog: we end up where it appears rational to MAGA to literally invade Canada. NATO stuffed. Elections rigged.
4 Proper Trumpist coup: we wake up one day and find MSNBC, NYT, WSJ are closed, internet is down and Jon Stewart is in prison, elections cancelled, army on the street
5 Proper counter coup: We wake up one day and find airports closed, media outlets occupied, Trump and Musk etc arrested and army on the street.
Of these 5, assuming they cover the terrain, I would put the % at about 5% 35% 25% 20% 15%. Thoughts?
You'd need to include possibilities where Trump dies. Leaving aside the risk of assassination, a man of 80 (as Trump will be in June) has around a 5% chance of dying in the next twelve months. He has access to the best healthcare but also has some risk factors. His chances of dying within his term of office have to be around 20%.
And that's just death: if you include serious illness (like a cancer diagnosis), it's probably at least a third.
Particularly as he is obese. Keep eating those burgers Donald!
I'm afraid he's lost a few pounds recently. I just don’t think we can count on a rescue via health event. Plenty other ways he comes a cropper though.
Well you see Kelly was only a Navy pilot, an astronaut, and a US Senator so clearly he's done nothing for the US, and is in fact an enemy. If you struggle to understand this try smashing your head against a wall until you see stars and then it might make some sense.
You could imagine a scenario where Russia tries to "send messages" on the same day.
Blow up a lot of U.S. military fuel, and attack Musk's X. Didn't someone also post something, more recently, about Trump making some more anti-Russıa sounding noisies, today ?
You do realise TESLA is a key component of many peoples investment portfolios as well as index trackers and it falling just simply goes to the detriment of many people around the world.
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
If you've got any TESLA shares you need better financial advice...
And there was I thinking that that was Senator Mark Kelly who service as a US Navy Pilot with distinction, flew 39 combat missions in Operation Desert Storm, became a NASA astronaut and flew four Space Shuttle missions, who became a US Senator, whose wife, US Representative Gabby Giffords, was shot and seriously injured in an assassination attempt...
Comments
Ontario's premier announced that effective today the province is charging 25% more for electricity to 1.5 million Americans in response to Trump's trade war. Ontario provides electricity to MN, NY and MI.
“If the US escalates, I will not hesitate to shut the electricity off completely,” he said.
https://bsky.app/profile/joncooper-us.bsky.social/post/3ljzz2sy3rk2w
I can see several types of check and balance that may hold him in various ways:
1 - Lawyers and Independent Judiciary where it exists.
2 - Mainstream and Independent Media.
3 - Civil society - eg Town Hall meetings, people with independent self-supporting platforms.
4 - Other countries kicking back.
5 - Reality reaching erstwhile supporters.
https://youtu.be/vvANy49Kqhw?feature=shared
A man aged 80 in the U.S. has roughly a 26-27% probability of dying within the next 4 years based on actuarial data.
Just make the words fit.
Kleptocratic American Government of Oligarchs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62z9ell358o
Yet, I think Dem leadership are doing the right thing. I’m thinking of two examples. The segment in Lawrence of Arabia film, where the British “went invisible” letting the Arabs fail. And Eisenhower going to play golf the day Sputnik went up, leaving the Russians to tackle everyone’s awkward what it means for airspace and sovereignty questions.
Keep giving the new administration all the space and airtime they need, till they eventually fail. And then call it a bloody disgrace, that should never be repeated. And dine out electorally for a long time on the pain the madness inflicted on all the voters.
a) Trump does stupid things and causes damage (market down, prices up, job cuts etc)
b) Trump becomes less popular as a result
c) More people are willing to stand up to an unpopular President than a popular one - cue more negative coverage
Now Trump may well double down. But that will see him get more and more unpopular, which he hates.
Or possibly, just possibly, he moderates and focuses on the parts of his agenda that are less damaging.
...But then, to be honest, I find it amazing that he still has positive approval ratings on average, so I can't say I'm too optimistic about the moderating path happening.
He'll be the first teetotalitarian POTUS !
Hence it's got a long long way still to go..
Thinking about it I'm sure @rcs1000 can have a better stab at that answer than me.
https://x.com/MattCartoonist/status/1899151158804897864
Violent thug to stand down.
Reform fail here theyve fucked it big time
https://x.com/electionmapsuk/status/1899150962289156321?s=61
It’s not just pilot fuel leakage but other chemicals from Portuguese ship that can be a big concern. Very bad thing from environment point of view and bad timing. 🥺
You probably don’t give a shit about others, to be fair, as long as the libs own Musk.
Elon Musk says today's X outage was caused by a "massive cyberattack" and the company is "tracing" the perpetrator.
Don't be surprised if he blames, obviously without evidence, 'Zelensky government-associated hackers' as a politically convenient scapegoat for his own mismanagement.
And anyone who holds more than 1% of their portfolio in Tesla, well they had every chance to cash out their above-market gains earlier. No sympathy for them on the way down.
So people can enjoy the Tesla share price falling off a cliff with a clear conscience.
However they are a component of various ETF’s and tracker funds given the size they are.
This is not “hurting investors”, it’s simply accounting for political risk and recognising that the brand is effectively a proxy for “MAGA” if not a form of techno-fascism.
I'm branding that the Sods vs the Fokkers.
I note that a number of our PB Tory friends are busting Reform's balls for the Trump adjacent stance during the Presidential Election. Remind me what party do Johnson, Mogg, Patel, Braverman, Jenrick and to a lesser degree Badenoch belong to?
Labour aren't out of the woods on this issue either. Starmer must be in agony for all those splinters from fence sitting over Trump evil.
Never heard of that.
"On Monday, the China Passenger Car Association said that the overall trend of new-energy passenger-car sales was “strong,” with sales of market leader BYD Co. Ltd. BYDDY rising 7.3% to 318,233 units, according to a Google translation of official data.
But it certainly wasn’t strong for Tesla, which saw sales sink 51.5% to 30,688 EVs in February, from the 63,238 units sold in January."
Worrying about the value of people's savings is not valid reason to artificially prop up a share price. Indeed, diversification is supposed to mitigate the risk that a CEO randomly turns into a Nazi, so the index tracker is going its job in that respect.
It does not help however that the same individual has untrammelled power over the US government... but my European defence stocks are doing some good work.
😂
It will be instructive who believes what
I bought BAE stock when Russia invaded Ukraine, done well.
Pointless blaming the attacker.
If the defences fail blame the defenders.
Forty years ago the Eliza Tinsley company broke South African sanctions and provided the Apartheid Government with chains and manacles to shackle Nelson Mandela to his cell wall in Roben Island. I have never subsequently bought any of their products. Bastards!
My old boss had a Tesla. Didn’t like it.
Someone stating the obvious on Syria.
Sending a dead fish to the Whitehouse might make some people feel better, but might actually harm quite a lot of other people.
Playing the stretch-it-out-game is the best option at this point, I think.
https://order-order.com/2025/03/10/sentencing-council-slaps-down-mahmoods-call-to-scrap-two-tier-guidance/
I took out a 30 day prime membership to get the Dr Who season 7 Blu-ray next day. I’ll cancel it. Also find it far cheaper to order directly for the sort of stuff I buy.
There was (still is) a massive cyberattack against 𝕏.
We get attacked every day, but this was done with a lot of resources. Either a large, coordinated group and/or a country is involved.
Tracing …
So we all know he's going to blame the Ukraine while not providing any evidence to back it up..
Although a non-zero chance it is Ukraine (or its supporters) as payback for Russia somewhow being given the co-ordinates of the Starlink terminals in Kursk.
I saw a film a few years ago with Sydney Sweeney called Reality about intelligence leaks from the US. They have form on this. Snowden, Manning etc. It wouldn't surprise me if something big came out fairly soon.
Blow up a lot of U.S. military fuel, and attack Musk's X. Didn't someone also post something, more recently, about
Trump making some more anti-Russıa sounding noisies, today ?
His "tech guy" can't get his tech running
Hos Foreign Secretary has never seen a map of Europe
Let's not even start with the others
But no, it must be another Mark Kelly.