politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the confusing messages from the polls punters seem to
Comments
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@CarolineLucas: Painful to watch @UKLabour wriggling on the hook, unable to explain why they are not opposing cuts of £30bn - no consistency & no courage
Getting cheered on by the Coalition benches laughing at Labour0 -
Whereas the Tories seem to be trying to 'mention it away', as if just by talking about deficit reduction and assuming the mantle of economic responsibility, the deficit will magically reduce.Scott_P said:Osborne says Labour are running the "Basil Fawlty" deficit reduction plan...
"Don't mention the Deficit!"
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@VickiYoung01: Green MP Caroline Lucas calls Labour economic plan "feeble & inconsistent". Osborne: "that's why we want you in the TV debates"0
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Cricket: Good to see Trott getting his head back together with a century for the Lions. Be very nervous about picking him for the Ashes though, the sledging he'd get would be monstrous.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/307980600 -
Genuine question: How does the Fixed Term Parliament Act pan out then? I assume it continues unless repealed post May 7th (?). You need 55% to trigger an election I think which means a lot of parties are going to have to fancy their chances at the same time to get an election called assuming nobody get 358 seats on May 7th (seems unlikely).Bond_James_Bond said:So will there be two GEs this year? If we end up in a place where neither party can form a government even with the LDs, it's surely minority for 6 months, then another GE in November?
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Has there been any movement from Jack's ARSE?0
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Most seats on Betfair - we have CROSS OVER.
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What do you think the Lab lead was in October/November?paulbarker said:Its best to look at Polling averages, for last Month the Labour lead was 3.2%, for this Month so far its about 0.5%. Thats a pretty big fall over less than a Month. I expect the fall to continue.
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Quite possibly when he heard of the increase in tax on his triple Purdeys.GIN1138 said:Has there been any movement from Jack's ARSE?
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If nobody can form a government you get an election.welshowl said:
Genuine question: How does the Fixed Term Parliament Act pan out then? I assume it continues unless repealed post May 7th (?). You need 55% to trigger an election I think which means a lot of parties are going to have to fancy their chances at the same time to get an election called assuming nobody get 358 seats on May 7th (seems unlikely).Bond_James_Bond said:So will there be two GEs this year? If we end up in a place where neither party can form a government even with the LDs, it's surely minority for 6 months, then another GE in November?
Basically all the Fixed Term Parliament Act does is to prevent somebody from becoming PM then calling an early election to screw his coalition/minority partners. In that situation the other side now get a chance to offer them a deal. This was already effectively the situation immediately after an election (at least it has been since somebody changed the UK constitution by writing a letter to The Times under a pseudonyn) but it's now been extended so the same rules apply for the full five years.0 -
Lab most seats at 1.99 represents great value IMOScrapheap_as_was said:Most seats on Betfair - we have CROSS OVER.
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I'll file that one under "startling tips". No doubt they were great value at 1.8 too.bigjohnowls said:
Lab most seats at 1.99 represents great value IMOScrapheap_as_was said:Most seats on Betfair - we have CROSS OVER.
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Miss P, the great thing about the kindle is that with a bit of thought, a pair of pliers and a couple of metal coat-hangers it is possible to construct a rest for it that enables one to read in bed without having to put so much as a finger out from under the duvet. That fact alone makes the Kindle the greatest single invention since the advent of the printing press.Plato said:I've recently bought a Kindle and downloaded Call Of The Wild by Jack London for free - what are your titles called - will give them a try.
I still prefer paper, but sure I can get used to the electronic format with a bit of willpower.Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, to get rid of that stupid Chrome button, use the flags (chrome://flags), find the new avatar option and disable it [on closing and reopening the button will be gone].
The gun licences issue is just weird. It'd be like if someone said "Why should I buy this book?" and the writer said "The font is very nice."
As for what to read on the Device, I thoroughly recommend you start with Sir Edric's Temple. Then you can join me in beating up Mr Dancer for not making his books longer and you will have had many giggles, some chorttles, and a few down-right belly laughs on the way.
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Both Lab and Con now available at 2.00
Take your pick0 -
@bbcnickrobinson: Interesting to see how Osborne's inviting SNP & Greens into Commons austerity debate in effort to embarrass Labour. Cf leaders debates
@AngusMacNeilMP: Labour's Ed Balls unable to tell SNP in #Commons how Labour now differs from the Tories #austerity0 -
Mr. Llama, well, Treasure will be a tiny bit longer. I'm trying to make the third one roughly twice the length of Temple. Not sure if that'll work, though.0
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The SNP sell at 21 did seem and odd position to take, what was your reasoning?MikeSmithson said:I did have an SNP sell bet at 21 which I got out of at a loss at 27.
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@jameskirkup: Revenue from raising gun licence to meet police costs: £20 million. Govt deficit this year: £93,300 million http://t.co/nZxfPJVdY5
Is this a prelude to also allocating the money to the NHS so that Miliband can claim he was misunderstood and he really said "NHSising the weapons"?0 -
Anyone else coming to the conclusion the only guaranteed way to make money on this election is not to bet at all?0
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Not at 1.8 no I have an average 1.953 on my Lab most seats bets.Tissue_Price said:
I'll file that one under "startling tips". No doubt they were great value at 1.8 too.bigjohnowls said:
Lab most seats at 1.99 represents great value IMOScrapheap_as_was said:Most seats on Betfair - we have CROSS OVER.
Do you think 2.0 is poor value?0 -
How would that be making money? Bank Interest?TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else coming to the conclusion the only guaranteed way to make money on this election is not to bet at all?
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And so it came to pass https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2014/12/over_700_million_peo.htmlZenPagan said:
What all governments have failed to grasp as yet is that short of shutting down the internet there is absolutely no way for them to stop hidden communication. There are two many highly motivated and clever people of an activist mindset willing to churn out tools that will make it easy for Joe public to hide their communication.edmundintokyo said:
Not only that, we can then run a steganography thing on it so you can't tell the difference between it and some normal communication. Inspired by Fluffy Thoughts, which I think is somebody communicating in this way, I've been tinkering around with tools that pull a load of text from a document and put it back together in almost-coherent English. What I'm hoping is that I can make a way of encoding encrypted messages in the YouTube comments section or in the Daily Mail comments thread in a way that makes them indistinguishable from standard incoherent bigotry.
While the governments undoubtedly have clever people on their own side it takes a lot more to decrypt a message or even recognise it is an encrypted message than it does to encrypt it in the first place. This is one arms race the governments cannot win and the more they try the more they will drive perfectly innocent individuals to use such method. The more encrypted messages they face the more they will struggle and the more the communications of interest will be buried in the chaff of non interesting but nevertheless encrypted messagesThere's a new international survey on Internet security and trust, of '23,376 Internet users in 24 countries,' including 'Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Egypt, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Poland, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, Tunisia, Turkey and the United States.' Amongst the findings, 60% of Internet users have heard of Edward Snowden, and 39% of those 'have taken steps to protect their online privacy and security as a result of his revelations.'
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Yes, I think the Tories should be favourites. I am currently on at a net 2.436.bigjohnowls said:
Not at 1.8 no I have an average 1.953 on my Lab most seats bets.Tissue_Price said:
I'll file that one under "startling tips". No doubt they were great value at 1.8 too.bigjohnowls said:
Lab most seats at 1.99 represents great value IMOScrapheap_as_was said:Most seats on Betfair - we have CROSS OVER.
Do you think 2.0 is poor value?0 -
Many thanks.edmundintokyo said:
If nobody can form a government you get an election.welshowl said:
Genuine question: How does the Fixed Term Parliament Act pan out then? I assume it continues unless repealed post May 7th (?). You need 55% to trigger an election I think which means a lot of parties are going to have to fancy their chances at the same time to get an election called assuming nobody get 358 seats on May 7th (seems unlikely).Bond_James_Bond said:So will there be two GEs this year? If we end up in a place where neither party can form a government even with the LDs, it's surely minority for 6 months, then another GE in November?
Basically all the Fixed Term Parliament Act does is to prevent somebody from becoming PM then calling an early election to screw his coalition/minority partners. In that situation the other side now get a chance to offer them a deal. This was already effectively the situation immediately after an election (at least it has been since somebody changed the UK constitution by writing a letter to The Times under a pseudonyn) but it's now been extended so the same rules apply for the full five years.0 -
I think you mean not lose money, you can't make money by not bettingTheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else coming to the conclusion the only guaranteed way to make money on this election is not to bet at all?
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Yes.isam said:
How would that be making money? Bank Interest?TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else coming to the conclusion the only guaranteed way to make money on this election is not to bet at all?
I can see quite a few plausible scenarios in this election now.
From Lab majority to Con comfortably largest party.
I would not be shocked to see the Lib Dems with 20 seats nor would I be shocked to see them with 40 seats.0 -
This is the time you need balls of steel/balls the size of elephants.0
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Now that the massive stonking value has gone out of SNP related bets I would agree.TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else coming to the conclusion the only guaranteed way to make money on this election is not to bet at all?
EDIT: Bit of an issue for a political betting site though.0 -
Paying beaters? Never heard of such a thing. Might be given a brace of pheasants if more were shot than the guns wanted to take but that is all (except on the old-old Duke's shoots when you got a lunch and a bottle of beer). On our local shoot beaters did it for the fun of the thing.OldKingCole said:
Shooting, or at least beating for shooting very popular weekend "nice little earner" round here. No, I don't know if they declare it and I'm not daft enough to ask.TheWatcher said:
You might be surprised by how many 'working class' voters shoot.taffys said:Ah, Labour have at last found a demographic which they can tax 'till the pips squeak without losing a single vote.
They might as well tax fishing rods next.
Think it's "just" tips, actually
There was the last shoot of the season when the guns did the beating and the beaters did the shooting if they wanted to (not many did) followed by a wonderfully boozy barbecue during which some envelopes containing little thank-yous were handed out but nobody did a couple of months beating for those. The shoot was a social event and not an earner.0 -
But not both. You wouldn't be able to stand up. Airport security would also be a problem.TheScreamingEagles said:This is the time you need balls of steel/balls the size of elephants.
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I find navigating a Maine Coon with a runny bottom and attention seeking personality a trial. If I move a nanometer - I get jumped on. And bothered with MeowTalk for hours...
I'd rather a spouse who wanted to spend all weekend in B&Q or a garden centre.
PS That's very Blue Peter. All you need to add is sponges in green finger paint and tinsel.HurstLlama said:
Miss P, the great thing about the kindle is that with a bit of thought, a pair of pliers and a couple of metal coat-hangers it is possible to construct a rest for it that enables one to read in bed without having to put so much as a finger out from under the duvet. That fact alone makes the Kindle the greatest single invention since the advent of the printing press.Plato said:I've recently bought a Kindle and downloaded Call Of The Wild by Jack London for free - what are your titles called - will give them a try.
I still prefer paper, but sure I can get used to the electronic format with a bit of willpower.Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, to get rid of that stupid Chrome button, use the flags (chrome://flags), find the new avatar option and disable it [on closing and reopening the button will be gone].
The gun licences issue is just weird. It'd be like if someone said "Why should I buy this book?" and the writer said "The font is very nice."
As for what to read on the Device, I thoroughly recommend you start with Sir Edric's Temple. Then you can join me in beating up Mr Dancer for not making his books longer and you will have had many giggles, some chorttles, and a few down-right belly laughs on the way.0 -
Is an issue for the chap who is the occasional guest editor of Politicalbetting.comAlistair said:
Now that the massive stonking value has gone out of SNP related bets I would agree.TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else coming to the conclusion the only guaranteed way to make money on this election is not to bet at all?
EDIT: Bit of an issue for a political betting site though.
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No, the guaranteed way is to have followed my advice in 2011/12 by betting on Labour then, then followed my advice in 2014 by backing the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else coming to the conclusion the only guaranteed way to make money on this election is not to bet at all?
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Like I don't have enough trouble with (American) airport security.Anorak said:
But not both. You wouldn't be able to stand up. Airport security would also be a problem.TheScreamingEagles said:This is the time you need balls of steel/balls the size of elephants.
American Airport Security Chap: Do you have any weapons ?
Me: Why what do you need?
Is a miracle I didn't end up at Gitmo.0 -
Ah! A Maine Coon with a runny bottom..Plato said:I find navigating a Maine Coon with a runny bottom and attention seeking personality a trial. If I move a nanometer - I get jumped on. And bothered with MeowTalk for hours...
I'd rather a spouse who wanted to spend all weekend in B&Q or a garden centre.
PS That's very Blue Peter. All you need to add is sponges in green finger paint and tinsel.HurstLlama said:
Miss P, the great thing about the kindle is that with a bit of thought, a pair of pliers and a couple of metal coat-hangers it is possible to construct a rest for it that enables one to read in bed without having to put so much as a finger out from under the duvet. That fact alone makes the Kindle the greatest single invention since the advent of the printing press.Plato said:I've recently bought a Kindle and downloaded Call Of The Wild by Jack London for free - what are your titles called - will give them a try.
I still prefer paper, but sure I can get used to the electronic format with a bit of willpower.Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, to get rid of that stupid Chrome button, use the flags (chrome://flags), find the new avatar option and disable it [on closing and reopening the button will be gone].
The gun licences issue is just weird. It'd be like if someone said "Why should I buy this book?" and the writer said "The font is very nice."
As for what to read on the Device, I thoroughly recommend you start with Sir Edric's Temple. Then you can join me in beating up Mr Dancer for not making his books longer and you will have had many giggles, some chorttles, and a few down-right belly laughs on the way.
A long shot has landed, I have this exact problem... what to do? He smells! He wont let the furminator near him either.
I blame meaty/duck cat food.. he only like fishy flavours and Aldi ran out0 -
That was 'brave'. Did you even make the flight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Like I don't have enough trouble with (American) airport security.Anorak said:
But not both. You wouldn't be able to stand up. Airport security would also be a problem.TheScreamingEagles said:This is the time you need balls of steel/balls the size of elephants.
American Airport Security Chap: Do you have any weapons ?
Me: Why what do you need?
Is a miracle I didn't end up at Gitmo.0 -
No guarantees with any sort of bet, but it's this sort of uncertainty that creates the potential for big wins. If it were predictable you might make a guaranteed profit of ~1%, but where's the fun in that?TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else coming to the conclusion the only guaranteed way to make money on this election is not to bet at all?
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Vid of Balls and his counting troubles. Very amusing.
http://order-order.com/2015/01/13/watch-ed-balls-struggles-to-count-to-three0 -
I followed that.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, the guaranteed way is to have followed my advice in 2011/12 by betting on Labour then, then followed my advice in 2014 by backing the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else coming to the conclusion the only guaranteed way to make money on this election is not to bet at all?
I meant in relation to any new bets going forward on the spreads.
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O/T
For Beeb-bias conspiracy theorists.
That Money-Saving Expert guy (Martin something?) was on R5 yesterday and waded in with a surprisingly vehement criticism of Ed Miliband, over the energy price saga.
He said the timing was terrible and Miliband's comment has led to the Big Six being unwilling to lower prices over fears of a Labour government.
I thought ooooh, well said dude. Very to the point.
He then waded-into politicians of all colours for making politically-driven decisions over ones which benefit us poor people.
I suppose being a multi, multi millionaire enables you to say whatever you like, even when it clashes with the Beeb's sensibilities!
All in all, it was a sentiment which will resonate with voters I think. And Miliband won't like it being said.0 -
Hodges plumbing new depths in his continuing search for new things to be ignorant about
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/terrorism-in-the-uk/11342403/Banning-Snapchat-is-not-an-attack-on-freedom.-Killing-innocent-people-is.html0 -
Sky News will not be showing images of Charlie Hebdo magazine...0
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Now can't be split both 2.00/2.02Scrapheap_as_was said:Most seats on Betfair - we have CROSS OVER.
It's a coin toss!0 -
This was on arrival.Anorak said:
That was 'brave'. Did you even make the flight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Like I don't have enough trouble with (American) airport security.Anorak said:
But not both. You wouldn't be able to stand up. Airport security would also be a problem.TheScreamingEagles said:This is the time you need balls of steel/balls the size of elephants.
American Airport Security Chap: Do you have any weapons ?
Me: Why what do you need?
Is a miracle I didn't end up at Gitmo.
I had been bumped down from first class into pleb class.
I was tired, I'm not the best flyer.
You have no idea how difficult it is for me not to be sarcastic when they ask questions like are you a member of a terrorist organisation.0 -
Ah, well of course from here nothing is guaranteed, but poking around with various combinations of the SNP and UKIP bets might be fruitful.TheScreamingEagles said:
I followed that.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, the guaranteed way is to have followed my advice in 2011/12 by betting on Labour then, then followed my advice in 2014 by backing the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else coming to the conclusion the only guaranteed way to make money on this election is not to bet at all?
I meant in relation to any new bets going forward on the spreads.0 -
Snapchat is being banned o_O ?!0
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Why, what had you done? :InnocentFaceTheScreamingEagles said:I had been bumped down from first class into pleb class.
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Anorak said:
Vid of Balls and his counting troubles. Very amusing.
http://order-order.com/2015/01/13/watch-ed-balls-struggles-to-count-to-three
I think what Ed was trying to say is: you cannot know the "third" year of the rolling five year period - as it keep changing. But it was a Balls up.
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If the Spin mid price on UKIP was 102 I'd be in there like a shot.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ah, well of course from here nothing is guaranteed, but poking around with various combinations of the SNP and UKIP bets might be fruitful.TheScreamingEagles said:
I followed that.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, the guaranteed way is to have followed my advice in 2011/12 by betting on Labour then, then followed my advice in 2014 by backing the Conservatives.TheScreamingEagles said:Anyone else coming to the conclusion the only guaranteed way to make money on this election is not to bet at all?
I meant in relation to any new bets going forward on the spreads.0 -
In order to hold the balance of power the number of Lib Dem seats needs to be greater than the number of "other party" seats. At the 2010 election the 57 seats won by the Lib Dems was comfortably greater than the 33 seats won by other parties [and the speaker]. Even then, the margin between Labour and the Conservatives was large enough that the Lib Dems were not in a position to freely choose their Coalition partner. There weren't enough seats to make Lab+Lib work.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 1000, if they get 20 I agree with you. If they get 30-35 or more, that's a different kettle of monkeys.
Mathematically and psephologically, given an increase in SNP and UKIP seats compared to 2010, it looks like it is impossible for the Lib Dems to win enough seats in 2015 to be kingmakers in a well-hung Parliament. They probably need a minimum of 40, and realistically probably more than 50* to be in such a position.
This means that any result where Labour and the Conservatives are close to level on seats is one where no two-party coalition [excepting a Grand Coalition] will have a majority.
* Suppose +5 UKIP [on 2010] and +15 SNP on 2010. This takes "other parties" to 53 seats. You can take that down to 47 by excluding the Speaker and Sinn Fein, but it still presents a massive barrier to the Lib Dems being able to choose a Coalition partner.0 -
The great thing is that he had a point, but he managed to make himself look like a complete numpty nevertheless. He must be seething at himself right now. Poor lamb.MarkHopkins said:
I think what Ed was trying to say is: you cannot know the "third" year of the rolling five year period - as it keep changing. But it was a Balls up.Anorak said:Vid of Balls and his counting troubles. Very amusing.
http://order-order.com/2015/01/13/watch-ed-balls-struggles-to-count-to-three0 -
Real CROSSOVER on Betfair nowScrapheap_as_was said:
Now can't be split both 2.00/2.02Scrapheap_as_was said:Most seats on Betfair - we have CROSS OVER.
It's a coin toss!0 -
I notice that another elected hereditary peer has retired , Lady Saltoun of Abernethy. This means that there will be another HofL by-election within the next couple of months for a crossbench hereditary peer.0
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It could be a few things - first try a binding diet of white fish, white rice, scrambled eggs and cat milk for kittens such as cimicat [readily available on eBay or Amazon - great for building up a thin kitty or old one too]. Basically anything to cause a more constipated digestion and stop the runs.
Never feed cow's milk.
If these don't work - your kitty may have a bacterial infection - so a trip to the vet with a blob sample. There are several antis that work but take several days to solve it.
It may take a few meals to fix it or something longer - bit of a lottery to be honest.
If all else fails - you can't go wrong with Crommesol - made by WallaceCameron, it's the default top drawer disinfectant used by Crufts and nursing homes. Very cheap and fantastic/smells lovely. Very effective against germs/neutralises wee stains in corners totally. I can't recommend it highly enough if you've a pet or infant or eldery incontinence problem.
A.D.D. and wallacecameron.com/Hygiene-Supplies/Cleaning-Products/GreenFern-Disinfectant-Concentrate-54sc-715p.aspx Those of us who live with dozens of animals don't mess about with stuff you can buy in Tesco - we use WMD.
wallacecameron.com/advice-and-guides/Hygiene-Products/
Ah! A Maine Coon with a runny bottom..isam said:Plato said:snip
I'd rather a spouse who wanted to spend all weekend in B&Q or a garden centre.
PS That's very Blue Peter. All you need to add is sponges in green finger paint and tinsel.
Miss P, the great thing about the kindle is that with a bit of thought, a pair of pliers and a couple of metal coat-hangers it is possible to construct a rest for it that enables one to read in bed without having to put so much as a finger out from under the duvet. That fact alone makes the Kindle the greatest single invention since the advent of the printing press.HurstLlama said:Plato said:
snip
The gun licences issue is just weird. It'd be like if someone said "Why should I buy this book?" and the writer said "The font is very nice."
As for what to read on the Device, I thoroughly recommend you start with Sir Edric's Temple. Then you can join me in beating up Mr Dancer for not making his books longer and you will have had many giggles, some chorttles, and a few down-right belly laughs on the way.
A long shot has landed, I have this exact problem... what to do? He smells! He wont let the furminator near him either.
I blame meaty/duck cat food.. he only like fishy flavours and Aldi ran out
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.0
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Nothing.Richard_Nabavi said:
Why, what had you done? :InnocentFaceTheScreamingEagles said:I had been bumped down from first class into pleb class.
At the time the cheapest way to get a first class ticket was to get a premium economy ticket and upgrade closer to the time.
Due to a booking snafu they had overbooked and offered me two free first class return tickets and a seat sat on my own in pleb class.
I thought fine but when I sat down in pleb class I remembered why I travel first class on long haul flights.0 -
I'm kicking myself for not buying SNP on the SPIN, but at least I didn't sell - whatever possessed OGH to do that
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Well I like Martin Lewis but he was hardly Mystic Meg on firms refusing to lower prices as next day the falls beganFenster said:O/T
For Beeb-bias conspiracy theorists.
That Money-Saving Expert guy (Martin something?) was on R5 yesterday and waded in with a surprisingly vehement criticism of Ed Miliband, over the energy price saga.
He said the timing was terrible and Miliband's comment has led to the Big Six being unwilling to lower prices over fears of a Labour government.
I thought ooooh, well said dude. Very to the point.
He then waded-into politicians of all colours for making politically-driven decisions over ones which benefit us poor people.
I suppose being a multi, multi millionaire enables you to say whatever you like, even when it clashes with the Beeb's sensibilities!
All in all, it was a sentiment which will resonate with voters I think. And Miliband won't like it being said.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30792208
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We were told by a couple of impeccable and impartial sources that the private polling in Scotland shows a strong incumbent effect.Pulpstar said:I'm kicking myself for not buying SNP on the SPIN, but at least I didn't sell - whatever possessed OGH to do that
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Mr. glw, no no no. He just wants the state to be able to see what they're saying.
Next up, a Diary Inspectorate, Tavern Snoopers, the Postal Perusers and the Eavesdropper Corps.
Remember, nothing to hide, nothing to fear.0 -
What is the highest UKIP have been on the spreads? 10-12?0
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welshowl said:
I think it's about two billion a year we could save by switching Gilt payments from RPI to CPI but that was rejected a couple of years ago despite acknowledgement that RPI was a fundamentally mathematically flawed calculation (don't ask me how the maths was way above my pay grade), but it was rejected essentially on the grounds of "continuity" (ie it would look a bit like a mini default to those who had bought gilts). As an inevitable result pension valuations and liabilities have all had to remain in RPI too.antifrank said:
I'm sure that HMG could implement tax band rises in line with CPI rather than RPI, and defer making switches that cost money until public finances were under less of a strain (insert quote about "tough decisions" and "difficult times" and "we're all in this together" etc).JonathanD said:
Do we know if that change would actually improve the Governments finances? I get the impression Osborne has already tweaked most numbers so that anything that raises money for the Government goes up by RPI and anything that the Government pays out goes up by CPI or a lower fixed amount (although after today's news, a 1% public pay offering is suddenly a inflation busting payrise)antifrank said:
I did post a link to this the other day:Richard_Nabavi said:Of course we might be being unfair to Labour. Perhaps they've spent the last year doing some really innovative, blue-sky, bottom-up thinking, and they've finally come up with a game-changer for raising revenue without tax increases: Auction gun licences to drug-dealers.
http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/reports---correspondence/current-reviews/range-of-prices-statistics.html
No one commented.
Key recommendation: "Taxes, benefits and regulated prices should not be linked to the RPI."
Probably the best thing would be to start issuing CPI linked gilts to phase them in, but again that would only work if you let pension schemes calculate in CPI not RPI otherwise there'd be precious little demand for CPI Gilts.
Still it'd save more than taxing the odd shotgun licence I suppose.
CPI gilts would not save anything since the floatation price of a new CPI gilt issue would have to reflect the lower return from CPI than RPI, cancelling any supposed benefit.
Existing RPI gilts have to continue being based on RPI otherwise it would be a breach of contract.
Similarly past company pension funds which employees have paid into (eg additional voluntary contributions) and pay inflation proof pensions (up to 3% or 5% max normally) are also normally contracted to use the RPI basis.0 -
I miss East Germany. It was paradise on Earth. No Muslim terror attacks there, either - so we know the system was flawless.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. glw, no no no. He just wants the state to be able to see what they're saying.
Next up, a Diary Inspectorate, Tavern Snoopers, the Postal Perusers and the Eavesdropper Corps.
Remember, nothing to hide, nothing to fear.0 -
Mr. Eagles, didn't SNP private polling show they'd win the referendum handsomely?
Mr. Owls, on the other hand, Ammianus Marcellinus rightly excoriated the policy of price-fixing more than sixteen centuries before Miliband's idiotic utterances on the subject. Great foresight from a great historian.0 -
Looking at the Ashcroft, Labour there had lost the "Red Liberals", who switched from Liberal-voting in 2010 to Red Miliband-supporting by 2011. Those voters told Ashcroft they would now vote for the genuinely red-centred watermelons in the Green parties.woody662 said:I think it is interesting to look at demographic support. I've canvassed a few different sort of areas now and it seems its the more middle class Labour support that is solid and a good number of WWC are seeping away to UKIP. I suspect this is something populus does not pick up on given its low level of Lab to UKIP switchers.from what I am finding there is no way they are anywhere near 37%.
Populus squashes respondents from Green supporters, on the assumption that eager tech-savvy Green supporters have stuffed their online panel.
I think that's [part of] the difference.0 -
They used some Canadians who looked at Facebook and Twitter and said the Nats are winning there so they will win the referendum.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, didn't SNP private polling show they'd win the referendum handsomely?
Mr. Owls, on the other hand, Ammianus Marcellinus rightly excoriated the policy of price-fixing more than sixteen centuries before Miliband's idiotic utterances on the subject. Great foresight from a great historian.
Our sources were much sounder.0 -
On topic, I think we will see lots of vicissitudes in the polling between now and May and there will be reason to cheer and sweat on all sides.
Before the last GE we had years of Tory leads. I know many think that the debates had a huge effect on the voting (and perhaps it cost the Tories some marginals) but the outcome of the campaign undoubtedly lowered the overall Tory vote share and the Labour vote undoubtedly held up enough in - what, 30, 40? - key marginals to prevent a Tory majority.
I reckon - and this is where I'm completely lacking in science - that Gordon Brown's speech (after the debates) at some church or cathedral somewhere up north, swung a lot of votes back Labour's way. It was a proper tub-thumper of a speech to the faithful. Full of his passion for the under-privileged and unashamed class-warrior stuff. Dripping with fear of what the Tories will do to the poor. The stuff he was really good at. I remember thinking, wow, if he did more of this he'd win more seats because people believe it. And I say this as someone who hugely disliked Brown.
Anyway, I reckon that speech drew more votes Labour's way than the Bigot and Bullygate stuff took the other way. So the leaders should be prepared - even when all seems lost and even when the media-narrative is going against them, as it was for Brown after the third debate - to make a genuine, tub-thumper of a speech. It's what voters like and it would've kept many of the unconvinced switchers on side. Cameron is capable of the same.0 -
Blair giving evidence to the Select Committee (has been for a while, I think).0
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One could consider revising the RPI formula in such a way that would bring the answer closer to CPI thereby saving billions.David_Evershed said:
Existing RPI gilts have to continue being based on RPI otherwise it would be a breach of contract.
It depends on the wording of the Rules. Many were switched to CPI resulting in significant losses for those members.David_Evershed said:
Similarly past company pension funds which employees have paid into (eg additional voluntary contributions) and pay inflation proof pensions (up to 3% or 5% max normally) are also normally contracted to use the RPI basis.0 -
The Hoff has got a lot to answer for. He is responsible for bringing down the Berlin Wall and ending East GermanyAnorak said:
I miss East Germany. It was paradise on Earth. No Muslim terror attacks there, either - so we know the system was flawless.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. glw, no no no. He just wants the state to be able to see what they're saying.
Next up, a Diary Inspectorate, Tavern Snoopers, the Postal Perusers and the Eavesdropper Corps.
Remember, nothing to hide, nothing to fear.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/berlin-wall-25th-anniversary-did-david-hasselhoff-really-help-rebuild-germany-14735530 -
"In a previous article I raised the question of whether UKIP support in the 2014 European Parliament (EP) elections would be sustained through to the 2015 General Election. In previous European elections where UKIP performed well, their vote share subsequently collapsed by general election time. Despite the repitition of this pattern over the last 15 years, some experts predict that in 2015 this would not be the case. Evidence emerging from the BES appears to reinforce this prediction.
While there does appear to have been a transient element to the UKIP vote in the EP elections, there is also a UKIP core of around 14% to 15% of the vote that may not have existed in previous years."
http://commonslibraryblog.com/2015/01/13/voter-trends-in-2014-and-lessons-for-the-2015-general-election/0 -
An act of parliament would redefine the contract and therefore make the first situation legal. the problem is not legality. It's that it would be seen by the markets, rightly, as a partial default.Neil said:
One could consider revising the RPI formula in such a way that would bring the answer closer to CPI thereby saving billions.David_Evershed said:
Existing RPI gilts have to continue being based on RPI otherwise it would be a breach of contract.
0 -
Kippers have invaded the Populus panel too if you look at the raw & the cooked numbers.OblitusSumMe said:
Looking at the Ashcroft, Labour there had lost the "Red Liberals", who switched from Liberal-voting in 2010 to Red Miliband-supporting by 2011. Those voters told Ashcroft they would now vote for the genuinely red-centred watermelons in the Green parties.woody662 said:I think it is interesting to look at demographic support. I've canvassed a few different sort of areas now and it seems its the more middle class Labour support that is solid and a good number of WWC are seeping away to UKIP. I suspect this is something populus does not pick up on given its low level of Lab to UKIP switchers.from what I am finding there is no way they are anywhere near 37%.
Populus squashes respondents from Green supporters, on the assumption that eager tech-savvy Green supporters have stuffed their online panel.
I think that's [part of] the difference.0 -
Security services are reportedly on “high alert” for a beheading attack in Britain after online “chatter” by jihadists discussing plans to murder soldiers, police and intelligence operatives.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/security-services-on-high-alert-for-beheading-attack-in-britain-in-wake-of-paris-killings-9974363.html
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No it would effectively be a ban, if you add a backdoor to a system that has end-to-end encryption it's no longer end-to-end encryption, a third party is now involved.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. glw, no no no. He just wants the state to be able to see what they're saying.
So Cameron does want a ban.0 -
I felt it indelicate to ask!Pulpstar said:I'm kicking myself for not buying SNP on the SPIN, but at least I didn't sell - whatever possessed OGH to do that
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Nothing says more to me about the cultural taste of your average German than The Hoff's popularity there. Number one albums in Germany, Austria (three times!!!) and Switzerland.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Hoff has got a lot to answer for. He is responsible for bringing down the Berlin Wall and ending East GermanyAnorak said:
I miss East Germany. It was paradise on Earth. No Muslim terror attacks there, either - so we know the system was flawless.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. glw, no no no. He just wants the state to be able to see what they're saying.
Next up, a Diary Inspectorate, Tavern Snoopers, the Postal Perusers and the Eavesdropper Corps.
Remember, nothing to hide, nothing to fear.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/berlin-wall-25th-anniversary-did-david-hasselhoff-really-help-rebuild-germany-14735530 -
The Hoff has got a lot to answer for. He is responsible for bringing down the Berlin Wall and ending East Germany
Anybody watching the re-runs of 'Smiley's People' on BBC4?? Sublime.0 -
They can have the portfolios the LibDems currently hold. That should minimise the disruption to Govt.....Socrates said:If there was a grand coalition with the Conservatives having most seats, who would the main ministers be? Presumably Miliband would quickly be replaced as leader, but I can't see the Tories being happy with either Ed Balls as Chancellor, nor a Labour Home Secretary.
0 -
http://rt.com/news/saudi-arabia-message-censorship-122/
I'm going to launch a JIHAD on Cameron's ass if he bans Snapchat, and I don't even use it
Are you listening Dave, well are you !?0 -
PS Anyone with a pet grease issue - like cats or dogs rubbing their coats on the wall or doorways - use Sugar Soap. Available in all B&Qs and everywhere else. It solves almost every pet problem.
30yrs at this has made me a bit of an expert of what works. Happy to take any questions here or on Twitter at @platosays.0 -
I'm not sure the legal position would be quite that simple. But in any case these indices are always being refined. Indeed it was a change to the formula that exacerbated the difference between RPI and CPI a few years ago. Why the main issue in question cant be "fixed" in the normal course of things (besides the previous National Statistician saying it wont be) is beyond me.Socrates said:
An act of parliament would redefine the contract and therefore make the first situation legal. the problem is not legality. It's that it would be seen by the markets, rightly, as a partial default.Neil said:
One could consider revising the RPI formula in such a way that would bring the answer closer to CPI thereby saving billions.David_Evershed said:
Existing RPI gilts have to continue being based on RPI otherwise it would be a breach of contract.
0 -
How do you remove horse blood from a duvet? Asking for a, uh, friend.Plato said:PS Anyone with a pet grease issue - like cats or dogs rubbing their coats on the wall or doorways - use Sugar Soap. Available in all B&Qs and everywhere else. It solves almost every pet problem.
30yrs at this has made me a bit of an expert of what works. Happy to take any questions here or on Twitter at @platosays.0 -
It would rather undermine the principle that the national statistics can't be fiddled by politicians, which would be counter-productive as well as not cricket.Neil said:I'm not sure the legal position would be quite that simple. But in any case these indices are always being refined. Indeed it was a change to the formula that exacerbated the difference between RPI and CPI a few years ago. Why the main issue in question cant be "fixed" in the normal course of things (besides the previous National Statistician saying it wont be) is beyond me.
0 -
I too have an obsession with the Hoff.Anorak said:
Nothing says more to me about the cultural taste of your average German than The Hoff's popularity there. Number one albums in Germany, Austria (three times!!!) and Switzerland.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Hoff has got a lot to answer for. He is responsible for bringing down the Berlin Wall and ending East GermanyAnorak said:
I miss East Germany. It was paradise on Earth. No Muslim terror attacks there, either - so we know the system was flawless.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. glw, no no no. He just wants the state to be able to see what they're saying.
Next up, a Diary Inspectorate, Tavern Snoopers, the Postal Perusers and the Eavesdropper Corps.
Remember, nothing to hide, nothing to fear.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/berlin-wall-25th-anniversary-did-david-hasselhoff-really-help-rebuild-germany-1473553
The Reflex night club in Liverpool have a huge cardboard cut of the Hoff on one of the floors which I have worshipped and possibly attempted to dry hump when drunk.
For a few years my ringtone/text alert was the Knight Rider Theme.
I am also a fluent German speaker.0 -
My point being that it should be "fixed" by the statisticians in the way that statisticians feel it should be "fixed". Are there any other indices in the world that are produced by national statistics authorities who refuse to ever update the methodology for compiling them regardless of the weight of statistical opinion?Richard_Nabavi said:
It would rather undermine the principle that the national statistics can't be fiddled by politicians, which would be counter-productive as well as not cricket.Neil said:I'm not sure the legal position would be quite that simple. But in any case these indices are always being refined. Indeed it was a change to the formula that exacerbated the difference between RPI and CPI a few years ago. Why the main issue in question cant be "fixed" in the normal course of things (besides the previous National Statistician saying it wont be) is beyond me.
0 -
From YouGov alone, at the rate of five polls per week, there will have been more than 1,000 opinion polls. Out of 1000 opinion polls you would expect nearly 3 that had an error of 3+ standard deviations.Pulpstar said:How many polls have we had from 2010 to now on overall GE btw ?
One or two of the polls in that time will have been 3+ SD outliers.
This sort of thing might form the basis for a little game during the election campaign. We could try to identify the least accurate opinion poll in the period from the formal start of the election campaign to polling day itself.0 -
Slightly too much information.TheScreamingEagles said:
I too have an obsession with the Hoff.Anorak said:
Nothing says more to me about the cultural taste of your average German than The Hoff's popularity there. Number one albums in Germany, Austria (three times!!!) and Switzerland.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Hoff has got a lot to answer for. He is responsible for bringing down the Berlin Wall and ending East GermanyAnorak said:
I miss East Germany. It was paradise on Earth. No Muslim terror attacks there, either - so we know the system was flawless.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. glw, no no no. He just wants the state to be able to see what they're saying.
Next up, a Diary Inspectorate, Tavern Snoopers, the Postal Perusers and the Eavesdropper Corps.
Remember, nothing to hide, nothing to fear.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/berlin-wall-25th-anniversary-did-david-hasselhoff-really-help-rebuild-germany-1473553
The Reflex night club in Liverpool have a huge cardboard cut of the Hoff on one of the floors which I have worshipped and possibly attempted to dry hump when drunk.
For a few years my ringtone/text alert was the Knight Rider Theme.
I am also a fluent German speaker.
He (The Hoff) held a concert near the wall when it came down, did he not?0 -
I think the far bigger mistake is to think that UKIP in previous elections have of their own accord collapsed and therefore it must happen again. Of course what happened in reality was that the hard and effective campaigns fought by major parties took their toll, not some random act of God or UKIP themselves. The other parties will need to do the same again.isam said:"In a previous article I raised the question of whether UKIP support in the 2014 European Parliament (EP) elections would be sustained through to the 2015 General Election. In previous European elections where UKIP performed well, their vote share subsequently collapsed by general election time. Despite the repitition of this pattern over the last 15 years, some experts predict that in 2015 this would not be the case. Evidence emerging from the BES appears to reinforce this prediction.
While there does appear to have been a transient element to the UKIP vote in the EP elections, there is also a UKIP core of around 14% to 15% of the vote that may not have existed in previous years."
http://commonslibraryblog.com/2015/01/13/voter-trends-in-2014-and-lessons-for-the-2015-general-election/0 -
I think I may have mentioned before that one of the most bizarre nights of my life involved being with out with The Hoff. Jeez, was he wasted.... I doubt he would have been in any state to stop you dry humping him.TheScreamingEagles said:
I too have an obsession with the Hoff.Anorak said:
Nothing says more to me about the cultural taste of your average German than The Hoff's popularity there. Number one albums in Germany, Austria (three times!!!) and Switzerland.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Hoff has got a lot to answer for. He is responsible for bringing down the Berlin Wall and ending East GermanyAnorak said:
I miss East Germany. It was paradise on Earth. No Muslim terror attacks there, either - so we know the system was flawless.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. glw, no no no. He just wants the state to be able to see what they're saying.
Next up, a Diary Inspectorate, Tavern Snoopers, the Postal Perusers and the Eavesdropper Corps.
Remember, nothing to hide, nothing to fear.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/berlin-wall-25th-anniversary-did-david-hasselhoff-really-help-rebuild-germany-1473553
The Reflex night club in Liverpool have a huge cardboard cut of the Hoff on one of the floors which I have worshipped and possibly attempted to dry hump when drunk.
For a few years my ringtone/text alert was the Knight Rider Theme.
I am also a fluent German speaker.
0 -
The photo looks like I'm dry humping him. I think I got out of the way of someone and got a bit to close to the HoffLogicalSong said:
Slightly too much information.TheScreamingEagles said:
I too have an obsession with the Hoff.Anorak said:
Nothing says more to me about the cultural taste of your average German than The Hoff's popularity there. Number one albums in Germany, Austria (three times!!!) and Switzerland.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Hoff has got a lot to answer for. He is responsible for bringing down the Berlin Wall and ending East GermanyAnorak said:
I miss East Germany. It was paradise on Earth. No Muslim terror attacks there, either - so we know the system was flawless.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. glw, no no no. He just wants the state to be able to see what they're saying.
Next up, a Diary Inspectorate, Tavern Snoopers, the Postal Perusers and the Eavesdropper Corps.
Remember, nothing to hide, nothing to fear.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/berlin-wall-25th-anniversary-did-david-hasselhoff-really-help-rebuild-germany-1473553
The Reflex night club in Liverpool have a huge cardboard cut of the Hoff on one of the floors which I have worshipped and possibly attempted to dry hump when drunk.
For a few years my ringtone/text alert was the Knight Rider Theme.
I am also a fluent German speaker.
He (The Hoff) held a concert near the wall when it came down, did he not?
Yes the Hoff held a concert in West Berlin the night wall came down because the East Germans wanted to see him.0 -
Probably on the east side, resulting in the breakout west to escape from the noise.LogicalSong said:
Slightly too much information.TheScreamingEagles said:
I too have an obsession with the Hoff.Anorak said:
Nothing says more to me about the cultural taste of your average German than The Hoff's popularity there. Number one albums in Germany, Austria (three times!!!) and Switzerland.TheScreamingEagles said:
The Hoff has got a lot to answer for. He is responsible for bringing down the Berlin Wall and ending East GermanyAnorak said:
I miss East Germany. It was paradise on Earth. No Muslim terror attacks there, either - so we know the system was flawless.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. glw, no no no. He just wants the state to be able to see what they're saying.
Next up, a Diary Inspectorate, Tavern Snoopers, the Postal Perusers and the Eavesdropper Corps.
Remember, nothing to hide, nothing to fear.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/berlin-wall-25th-anniversary-did-david-hasselhoff-really-help-rebuild-germany-1473553
The Reflex night club in Liverpool have a huge cardboard cut of the Hoff on one of the floors which I have worshipped and possibly attempted to dry hump when drunk.
For a few years my ringtone/text alert was the Knight Rider Theme.
I am also a fluent German speaker.
He (The Hoff) held a concert near the wall when it came down, did he not?0 -
Like others - I remember the day The Wall came down, a colleague went to Germany to celebrate it on the barricades.
A surreal left-over of WW2 - the notion of being shot for trying escape this socialist paradise has never left me. It was IIRC 1987.Anorak said:
I miss East Germany. It was paradise on Earth. No Muslim terror attacks there, either - so we know the system was flawless.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. glw, no no no. He just wants the state to be able to see what they're saying.
Next up, a Diary Inspectorate, Tavern Snoopers, the Postal Perusers and the Eavesdropper Corps.
Remember, nothing to hide, nothing to fear.0 -
French Police: "the terrorists' weapons came from overseas."0
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I'm sure that Jim Murphy and John McTernan, the co-founders of McMurphyism, will be hoping this is the case.TheScreamingEagles said:
We were told by a couple of impeccable and impartial sources that the private polling in Scotland shows a strong incumbent effect.Pulpstar said:I'm kicking myself for not buying SNP on the SPIN, but at least I didn't sell - whatever possessed OGH to do that
0 -
Blood is very tricky. Try Vanish Oxy spray or granules - they kill red wine stains and blood on limestone which is a difficult medium to fix.
Generally speaking - a very powerful biological washing powder will fix almost anything - unless it dissolves the medium first.
Never use dishwasher powder on anything natural - it will eat it in hours. I once tried to use it to clean hard paint off brushes and it ate the bristles. It's great drain cleaner though.Anorak said:
How do you remove horse blood from a duvet? Asking for a, uh, friend.Plato said:PS Anyone with a pet grease issue - like cats or dogs rubbing their coats on the wall or doorways - use Sugar Soap. Available in all B&Qs and everywhere else. It solves almost every pet problem.
30yrs at this has made me a bit of an expert of what works. Happy to take any questions here or on Twitter at @platosays.0 -
Hopefully the Lord Ashcroft Scottish polling will confirm it one way or the other.calum said:
I'm sure that Jim Murphy and John McTernan, the co-founders of McMurphyism, will be hoping this is the case.TheScreamingEagles said:
We were told by a couple of impeccable and impartial sources that the private polling in Scotland shows a strong incumbent effect.Pulpstar said:I'm kicking myself for not buying SNP on the SPIN, but at least I didn't sell - whatever possessed OGH to do that
0 -
Ask Don Corleone?Anorak said:
How do you remove horse blood from a duvet? Asking for a, uh, friend.Plato said:PS Anyone with a pet grease issue - like cats or dogs rubbing their coats on the wall or doorways - use Sugar Soap. Available in all B&Qs and everywhere else. It solves almost every pet problem.
30yrs at this has made me a bit of an expert of what works. Happy to take any questions here or on Twitter at @platosays.
Edit. Don't ask the Don. Ask the chap who found the horse's head in his bed.0 -
Like it.calum said:McMurphyism
"Are you now, or have you ever been, a member of the violent, extremists known as the SNP? Well, we'll let you off if you give us your vote.'
0
