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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the confusing messages from the polls punters seem to be backing Ashcroft rather than Populus

After yesterday’s Lord Ashcroft CON 6% lead poll and the Populus 5% LAB one it looks as though the markets are being more influenced by the former rather than the latter.

Read the full story here

Morris_Dancer

There is an off-chance that we could have the hitherto very very unlikely result of the Lib Dems effectively being able to choose between the two largest parties to form a government.

DavidL

Betting money on a Lord Ashcroft poll? Really?

Wow.

Sunil_Prasannan

Punters are mostly - mostly! - Tories?

DavidL

Looking at that chart if I had my arm twisted up my back I would:

Buy Labour
Sell Tories,
Buy Lib Dems (as the better of 2 evils, this really looks about right to me)
Sell UKIP
Sell SNP.

But I am really glad I don't have money on it.

AlastairMeeks

What most influences the constituency betting markets is going to be the subject of my next post. I know what I want to look at, it's now a matter of gathering together the data.

woody662

I think it is interesting to look at demographic support. I've canvassed a few different sort of areas now and it seems its the more middle class Labour support that is solid and a good number of WWC are seeping away to UKIP. I suspect this is something populus does not pick up on given its low level of Lab to UKIP switchers.from what I am finding there is no way they are anywhere near 37%.

rcs1000

Morris_Dancer said:

There is an off-chance that we could have the hitherto very very unlikely result of the Lib Dems effectively being able to choose between the two largest parties to form a government.

I think the Libs will be reduced to 20 seats or so (including Cambridge!), so it's just as likely they'll not be able to form a coalition with either party.

isam

The spread prices make my (UKIPx4)/LD seat bet (with the tie being mine) look great, but somehow I just don't completely buy it...

TheScreamingEagles

Ashcroft is the Gold Standard huh?

But I think bar Populus yesterday it looks like December's Labour surge was all fart and no follow through.

That might be driving punters

MikeSmithson

Morris_Dancer said:

There is an off-chance that we could have the hitherto very very unlikely result of the Lib Dems effectively being able to choose between the two largest parties to form a government.

Possibly. Scotland makes it much less likely that LAB can win a majority but has zero impact on Tory chances. Thus the overall prospect of hung parliament is greater.

It is hard to see the LDs getting more than the low 30s - but who knows the incumbency effect for them has been strong.

Tissue_Price

antifrank said:

What most influences the constituency betting markets is going to be the subject of my next post. I know what I want to look at, it's now a matter of gathering together the data.

At the moment what most influences the constituency betting markets are the denizens of pb.com.

Artist

I think this proves that it's wrong to assume that the people who bet on Betfair and Sporting Index are any more serious than the average punter.

JohnLilburne

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ashcroft is the Gold Standard huh?

But I think bar Populus yesterday it looks like December's Labour surge was all fart and no follow through.

That might be driving punters

Both Ashcroft and Populus are probably outliers. But even if so, this is the first time we have seen a Tory lead of this magnitude. Before Christmas we had Labour leads of 5% and even 7% but the biggest Tory lead was 3%.

Indigo

As if by magic, in the NYT last week:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/05/arts/writers-say-they-feel-censored-by-surveillance.html

The report's revelations, based on a survey of nearly 800 writers worldwide, are alarming. Concern about surveillance is now nearly as high among writers living in democracies (75%) as among those living in non-democracies (80%). The levels of self-censorship reported by writers living in democratic countries are approaching the levels reported by writers living in authoritarian or semi-democratic countries. And writers around the world think that mass surveillance has significantly damaged U.S. credibility as a global champion of free expression for the long term.

tlg86

isam said:

The spread prices make my (UKIPx4)/LD seat bet (with the tie being mine) look great, but somehow I just don't completely buy it...

I think that's a really interesting bet. It feels like Ukip are too high, but not many people would be tempted to sell Ukip purely due to the risk of something happening before the election that gives them a big boost. It's highly unlikely that they could take 50 seats, but there's not a lot to be gained by selling them for the risk (albeit very low) of something major happening.

Richard_Nabavi

CON backers tend to be the most optimistic. ... In fact at only one recent UK general election, 2005, have the spread markets pointed to a better outcome for the blues than actually happened.

That doesn't necessarily mean that Con backers are more optimistic. It might simply mean that punters look too literally at the opinion polls, which for much of the time tend to show a higher figure for the opposition than actually transpires at the election.

In the current markets, the anomaly is the SNP figure (and by implication Labour). Punters seem to be assuming that the SNP surge will fall back considerably from what the polls are showing. They might be right, but my hunch is that the SNP lead will be confirmed by the Ashcroft Scottish polls. For that reason I'm keeping my Buy of the SNP open, rather than taking profits at the moment.

We shall see!

NickPalmer

Richard_Nabavi said:

CON backers tend to be the most optimistic. ... In fact at only one recent UK general election, 2005, have the spread markets pointed to a better outcome for the blues than actually happened.

That doesn't necessarily mean that Con backers are more optimistic. It might simply mean that punters look too literally at the opinion polls, which for much of the time tend to show a higher figure for the Conservatives than actually transpires at the election.

Fixed that for you.:-)

Pulpstar

How many polls have we had from 2010 to now on overall GE btw ?

One or two of the polls in that time will have been 3+ SD outliers.

Pulpstar

"Refined models should then be considered, e.g. by the introduction of stochastic volatility. In such discussions it is important to be aware of problem of the gambler's fallacy, which states that a single observation of a rare event does not contradict that the event is in fact rare. It is the observation of a multitude of purportedly rare events that undermines the hypothesis that they are actually rare. It is the observation a plurality of purportedly rare events that increasingly undermines the hypothesis that they are rare, i.e. the validity of the assumed model. "

richardDodd

I see Burnham has found the wet seat again..he is a hapless lad..

AlastairMeeks

Tissue_Price said:

antifrank said:

What most influences the constituency betting markets is going to be the subject of my next post. I know what I want to look at, it's now a matter of gathering together the data.

At the moment what most influences the constituency betting markets are the denizens of pb.com.

There you go, spoiling my punchline.

Richard_Nabavi

NickPalmer said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

CON backers tend to be the most optimistic. ... In fact at only one recent UK general election, 2005, have the spread markets pointed to a better outcome for the blues than actually happened.

That doesn't necessarily mean that Con backers are more optimistic. It might simply mean that punters look too literally at the opinion polls, which for much of the time tend to show a higher figure for the Conservatives than actually transpires at the election.

Fixed that for you.:-)

Wrongly!

Richard_Nabavi

Pulpstar said:

"Refined models should then be considered, e.g. by the introduction of stochastic volatility. In such discussions it is important to be aware of problem of the gambler's fallacy, which states that a single observation of a rare event does not contradict that the event is in fact rare. It is the observation of a multitude of purportedly rare events that undermines the hypothesis that they are actually rare. It is the observation a plurality of purportedly rare events that increasingly undermines the hypothesis that they are rare, i.e. the validity of the assumed model. "

Is that a fancy way of saying we haven't a clue?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. 1000, if they get 20 I agree with you. If they get 30-35 or more, that's a different kettle of monkeys.

paulbarker

Its best to look at Polling averages, for last Month the Labour lead was 3.2%, for this Month so far its about 0.5%. Thats a pretty big fall over less than a Month. I expect the fall to continue.

anotherDave

MikeSmithson said:

It is hard to see the LDs getting more than the low 30s - but who knows the incumbency effect for them has been strong.

Guido highlights an article from the Cheltenham local press.

The local LDs there seem to have concluded that the LD brand is so bad it should be minimised in all election mail, 'including the ballot paper'.

http://www.gloucestershireecho.co.uk/Leaked-Lib-Dem-campaign-email-admits-party-8220/story-25842455-detail/story.html

This is the inescapable problem, all LD candidates will be identified as LD candidates.

DavidL

NickPalmer said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

CON backers tend to be the most optimistic. ... In fact at only one recent UK general election, 2005, have the spread markets pointed to a better outcome for the blues than actually happened.

That doesn't necessarily mean that Con backers are more optimistic. It might simply mean that punters look too literally at the opinion polls, which for much of the time tend to show a higher figure for the Conservatives than actually transpires at the election.

Fixed that for you.:-)

I seem to recall that until 2010 the golden rule on here was that whichever poll was worst for Labour was going to be the most accurate. It is possible this bias has been fixed as the 2010 results were more mixed but so far that is only 1 data point.

Tissue_Price

anotherDave said:

The local LDs there seem to have concluded that the LD brand is so bad it should be minimised in all election mail, 'including the ballot paper'

Could they put "The Yellow Party" on the ballot paper?

TCPoliticalBetting

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1000, if they get 20 I agree with you. If they get 30-35 or more, that's a different kettle of monkeys.

Most of the LD activists are expecting 30 to 40 seats. If they get low 20s that is going to be a massive shock. The betting market indicates high 20s so the LD activists can pile on and show their faith....

AlastairMeeks

paulbarker said:

Its best to look at Polling averages, for last Month the Labour lead was 3.2%, for this Month so far its about 0.5%. Thats a pretty big fall over less than a Month. I expect the fall to continue.

In the manner of Achilles & The Tortoise?

Tissue_Price

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. 1000, if they get 20 I agree with you. If they get 30-35 or more, that's a different kettle of monkeys.

Most of the LD activists are expecting 30 to 40 seats. If they get low 20s that is going to be a massive shock. The betting market indicates high 20s so the LD activists can pile on and show their faith....

LD activists have certainly been very keen punters in the past. In 2005 they did very well at identifying value; in 2010 they got a bit overinvested in the surge, though had they wished to I expect many could have cashed out for a profit on the morning of the election.

edmundintokyo

FPT

Indigo said:

DavidL said:

It needs lateral thinking. Like requiring all new laptops and computers to have keys that can open them when authorised by a warrant. I don't regard this as some new wonderful freedom that has been given to me. I regard the existence of such technology and systems as a threat to my way of life. But I am at a loss as to what our government can do about it.

The key in question isn't physical, its just a large prime number, and you can change it any time you want. Something like this

-----BEGIN PGP PUBLIC KEY BLOCK-----
Version: PGPfreeware 6.5.8 for non-commercial use
mQGiBDp1yy0RBADVlyDewVwltBs7HnHCG3bXlVUODFkn/00TdbM2SPnOAIkj4giB

and about another dozen lines of code, then an end message.

Not only that, we can then run a steganography thing on it so you can't tell the difference between it and some normal communication. Inspired by Fluffy Thoughts, which I think is somebody communicating in this way, I've been tinkering around with tools that pull a load of text from a document and put it back together in almost-coherent English. What I'm hoping is that I can make a way of encoding encrypted messages in the YouTube comments section or in the Daily Mail comments thread in a way that makes them indistinguishable from standard incoherent bigotry.

Artist

paulbarker said:

Its best to look at Polling averages, for last Month the Labour lead was 3.2%, for this Month so far its about 0.5%. Thats a pretty big fall over less than a Month. I expect the fall to continue.

We've only had four different pollsters so far this month, YouGov is near identical, Populus is up for Labour, Ashcroft + Opinium are down a lot for Labour.

JackW

rcs1000 said:

Morris_Dancer said:

There is an off-chance that we could have the hitherto very very unlikely result of the Lib Dems effectively being able to choose between the two largest parties to form a government.

I think the Libs will be reduced to 20 seats or so (including Cambridge!), so it's just as likely they'll not be able to form a coalition with either party.

Which twenty will they retain ?

BTW .... up thread OGH (of whom I understand you are familiar) says low 30's

We mortal PBers must muse over the winning Smithson.

David_Evershed

Are the political betting odds skewed by the allegiance of the people who bet?

Are punters able to disociated their betting decision from their own political position?

I suggest however hard they try, their judgement will be skewed. So if Tories put more cash on a particular outcome then the betting odds will be skewed to Tories because of the allegiance of the punters rather than their betting expertise.

TheScreamingEagles

On an anecdotal basis, a lot of the Labour activists I know are pessimists.

Their pessimism is formed since 1992 when the polls showed they were on course for a comfortable victory but in fact had a can of electoral whoop-ass opened on them.

Which may also be the reason why Tories are more optimistic.

I wonder if that might be the reason why Tories appear to bet more/optimistically.

TGOHF

the uk polling wiki page have updated their trend line

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

You can almost discern the yellow uptick.

Purple line of course continues steadily down.

Scott_P

@CCHQPress: You couldn't make it up - @ChrisLeslieMP on #bbcdp just said Labour would tackle the deficit through gun licensing #NoPlanNoClue

@JohnRentoul: / @ChrisLeslieMP now talking about gun licences as en eg of how a Lab govt is going to plug the deficit other than by spending cuts.

anotherDave

TGOHF said:

the uk polling wiki page have updated their trend line

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

You can almost discern the yellow uptick.

Purple line of course continues steadily down.

The purple line is higher this Janurary, than it was last January. How are your team doing year on year?

Plato

Welcome aboard, Mr Barker.

paulbarker said:

Its best to look at Polling averages, for last Month the Labour lead was 3.2%, for this Month so far its about 0.5%. Thats a pretty big fall over less than a Month. I expect the fall to continue.

TGOHF

anotherDave said:

TGOHF said:

the uk polling wiki page have updated their trend line

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:UK_opinion_polling_2010-2015.png

You can almost discern the yellow uptick.

Purple line of course continues steadily down.

The purple line is higher this Janurary, than it was last January. How are your team doing year on year?

Whatever keeps you warm Dave.

AlastairMeeks

On the Sporting Index prices, with a gun to my head I'd sell the Conservatives and UKIP, buy the Lib Dems and the SNP and shoot myself rather than have to make a decision about Labour right now.

Richard_Nabavi

Scott_P said:

@CCHQPress: You couldn't make it up - @ChrisLeslieMP on #bbcdp just said Labour would tackle the deficit through gun licensing #NoPlanNoClue

@JohnRentoul: / @ChrisLeslieMP now talking about gun licences as en eg of how a Lab govt is going to plug the deficit other than by spending cuts.

Ah, Labour have at last found a demographic which they can tax 'till the pips squeak without losing a single vote. You have to admire their thoroughness in trawling through the voter segmentation data.

Morris_Dancer

Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Barker.

Plato

I'm coughing with laughter, absurd.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

@CCHQPress: You couldn't make it up - @ChrisLeslieMP on #bbcdp just said Labour would tackle the deficit through gun licensing #NoPlanNoClue

@JohnRentoul: / @ChrisLeslieMP now talking about gun licences as en eg of how a Lab govt is going to plug the deficit other than by spending cuts.

Ah, Labour have at last found a demographic which they can tax 'till the pips squeak without losing a single vote. You have to admire their thoroughness in trawling through the voter segmentation data.

Scott_P

Richard_Nabavi said:

Ah, Labour have at last found a demographic which they can tax 'till the pips squeak without losing a single vote. You have to admire their thoroughness in trawling through the voter segmentation data.

Ooh, bad news. Turns out they have already spent it...

@jameschappers: Lab's plans for "full-cost recovery for gun licensing" will raise £17.2m - already committed to more frontline police officers #bbcdp

TheWatcher

Scott_P said:

@CCHQPress: You couldn't make it up - @ChrisLeslieMP on #bbcdp just said Labour would tackle the deficit through gun licensing #NoPlanNoClue

@JohnRentoul: / @ChrisLeslieMP now talking about gun licences as en eg of how a Lab govt is going to plug the deficit other than by spending cuts.

In Surrey, a Shotgun certificate is £50, £40 to renew. Is the plan to stick a zero on the end, or make the entire population have one?

And who will pay for the FLO's if the money has been diverted to the deficit?

Indigo

Richard_Nabavi said:

Scott_P said:

@CCHQPress: You couldn't make it up - @ChrisLeslieMP on #bbcdp just said Labour would tackle the deficit through gun licensing #NoPlanNoClue

@JohnRentoul: / @ChrisLeslieMP now talking about gun licences as en eg of how a Lab govt is going to plug the deficit other than by spending cuts.

Ah, Labour have at last found a demographic which they can tax 'till the pips squeak without losing a single vote. You have to admire their thoroughness in trawling through the voter segmentation data.

It an interesting attempt... There are apparently around 150,000 firearms licenses excluding shotguns, and around half a million shotgun licenses in the UK, lets be generous and call it 750,000 guns licenses. If they charged totally untenable £1000 per certificate, they would make £750m, enough to pay the interest on our national debt for about 4 days... and no farmer would vote Labour ever again.

Edit: On the basis of this

Scott_P said:

@jameschappers: Lab's plans for "full-cost recovery for gun licensing" will raise £17.2m - already committed to more frontline police officers #bbcdp

That looks like about £20 extra per license.

taffys

Ah, Labour have at last found a demographic which they can tax 'till the pips squeak without losing a single vote.

On that basis, a paedo levy can't be far away....

Indigo

Scott_P said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Ah, Labour have at last found a demographic which they can tax 'till the pips squeak without losing a single vote. You have to admire their thoroughness in trawling through the voter segmentation data.

Ooh, bad news. Turns out they have already spent it...

@jameschappers: Lab's plans for "full-cost recovery for gun licensing" will raise £17.2m - already committed to more frontline police officers #bbcdp

They have got to spent it 4-5 times more before its properly spent though!

MikeSmithson

antifrank said:

On the Sporting Index prices, with a gun to my head I'd sell the Conservatives and UKIP, buy the Lib Dems and the SNP and shoot myself rather than have to make a decision about Labour right now.

I'm selling CON at 280 & buying LD at 29. I did have an SNP sell bet at 21 which I got out of at a loss at 27.

Labour leave well alone. Agree totally.

TheWatcher

taffys said:

Ah, Labour have at last found a demographic which they can tax 'till the pips squeak without losing a single vote.

You might be surprised by how many 'working class' voters shoot.

They might as well tax fishing rods next.

Scott_P

@jameskirkup: Revenue from raising gun licence to meet police costs: £20 million. Govt deficit this year: £93,300 million http://t.co/nZxfPJVdY5

SandyRentool

@Indigo - farmers voting Labour? Now that I'd like to see!

TheWatcher

Scott_P said:

@jameskirkup: Revenue from raising gun licence to meet police costs: £20 million. Govt deficit this year: £93,300 million http://t.co/nZxfPJVdY5

£20 million isn't even a rounding error.

MikeK

FPT:
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/01/ukip-are-currently-laying-low-and-letting-the-other-parties-do-the-work-for-them/

This is the sort of article that I have to laugh at.
First, it's not true that UKIP have been especially quiet
Secondly, it was only 3 days ago that the Lab/Lib/Con leaders were railing against Farage when he spoke the truth about Charlie Hebdo and Islamist terrorism in general.

Mind you the Lab/Lib/Con leaders are making arses of themselves with their fatuous talk.

MikeK

FPT
Socrates said:
» show previous quotes

And both Churchill and Lincoln (FDR died during the war) only did so because they were in wars for national survival, and very quickly returned those liberties when we were at peace again, realising the extreme danger of such things becoming entrenched. They would never have put such things on a permanent footing for a terrorist threat which could easily last a century or more.
---------------------------------------------------------
TSE loves using only half truths. They are easier to slide by the eye, than absolute lies.

Scott_P

TheWatcher said:

£20 million isn't even a rounding error.

@CCHQPress: .@chriswoodlrps @ChrisLeslieMP will raise 0.0007% of current deficit - & they've already committed to spending this money elsewhere #chaos

Easterross

Afternoon all and now the storms and hurricanes have been replaced by blizzards so winter definitely making its presence felt.

Not surprised punters think Ashcroft more likely to be a realistic straw in the wind than Populus. After all if the Tories were seen to be heading for the rocks, would we have seen 2 LibDem councillors and 2 Labour councillors all defect to the Tory party within the past week?

Morris_Dancer

We may have discovered why Labour isn't necessarily enjoying a sense of economic credibility with the public.

MikeK

Appeasement always ends in disaster:

WakeUP @Fern_Britton @SianLloydnews @sianwilliams100 @louiseminchin @SophyRidgeSky @maryportas @sueperkins pic.twitter.com/Qn2XH7t0bx

— Vicky (@2tweetaboutit) January 13, 2015

Richard_Nabavi

Of course we might be being unfair to Labour. Perhaps they've spent the last year doing some really innovative, blue-sky, bottom-up thinking, and they've finally come up with a game-changer for raising revenue without tax increases: Auction gun licences to drug-dealers.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Easterross, whilst not as bad here, it's still been pretty horrid for quite a while, though happily this morning it wasn't actually raining and wasn't even windy enough to threaten blowing my hat off.

TheWatcher

Scott_P said:

TheWatcher said:

£20 million isn't even a rounding error.

@CCHQPress: .@chriswoodlrps @ChrisLeslieMP will raise 0.0007% of current deficit - & they've already committed to spending this money elsewhere #chaos

I'm guessing Kate Hoey's phone has just melted.

calum

YouGov poll on the debates which shows majority support for SNP inclusion:

http://cdn.yougov.com/cumulus_uploads/document/ph2go8efpw/RedBoxResults_150109_leaders_debates_Website.pdf

Smarmeron

@Richard_Nabavi
An auction that is bound to fail, it is cheaper and easier to just get an illegal gun off ticket.

AlastairMeeks

Richard_Nabavi said:

Of course we might be being unfair to Labour. Perhaps they've spent the last year doing some really innovative, blue-sky, bottom-up thinking, and they've finally come up with a game-changer for raising revenue without tax increases: Auction gun licences to drug-dealers.

I did post a link to this the other day:

http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/reports---correspondence/current-reviews/range-of-prices-statistics.html

No one commented.

Key recommendation: "Taxes, benefits and regulated prices should not be linked to the RPI."

OldKingCole

TheWatcher said:

taffys said:

Ah, Labour have at last found a demographic which they can tax 'till the pips squeak without losing a single vote.

You might be surprised by how many 'working class' voters shoot.

They might as well tax fishing rods next.

Shooting, or at least beating for shooting very popular weekend "nice little earner" round here. No, I don't know if they declare it and I'm not daft enough to ask.
Think it's "just" tips, actually

TheScreamingEagles

MikeK said:

FPT
Socrates said:
» show previous quotes

And both Churchill and Lincoln (FDR died during the war) only did so because they were in wars for national survival, and very quickly returned those liberties when we were at peace again, realising the extreme danger of such things becoming entrenched. They would never have put such things on a permanent footing for a terrorist threat which could easily last a century or more.
---------------------------------------------------------
TSE loves using only half truths. They are easier to slide by the eye, than absolute lies.

Since Socrates has already withdrawn some of his allegations today perhaps you might also learn something else before spouting your usual nonsense.

FDR oversaw the detention without charge of thousands of innocent American citizens for years.

When governments this side of the pond wanted to detain citizens without out trial for 90 days there was an outcry.

Lincoln briefly suspended Haebus Corpus.

Churchill enacted restrictions of liberty and monitoring of communications of those British citizens he suspected of being Nazi sympathisers.

I'm saying if whatsapp, snapchat et al existed during those eras they may well have monitored those as well.

As I noted, during times of war, the laws have fallen silent.

I might not support Cameron's proposals but I understand why he's doing it. It has happened since the time of Cicero and will happen in the future.

Socrates

If there was a grand coalition with the Conservatives having most seats, who would the main ministers be? Presumably Miliband would quickly be replaced as leader, but I can't see the Tories being happy with either Ed Balls as Chancellor, nor a Labour Home Secretary.

ZenPagan

edmundintokyo said:

FPT

Indigo said:

DavidL said:

It needs lateral thinking. Like requiring all new laptops and computers to have keys that can open them when authorised by a warrant. I don't regard this as some new wonderful freedom that has been given to me. I regard the existence of such technology and systems as a threat to my way of life. But I am at a loss as to what our government can do about it.

The key in question isn't physical, its just a large prime number, and you can change it any time you want. Something like this

-----BEGIN PGP PUBLIC KEY BLOCK-----
Version: PGPfreeware 6.5.8 for non-commercial use
mQGiBDp1yy0RBADVlyDewVwltBs7HnHCG3bXlVUODFkn/00TdbM2SPnOAIkj4giB

and about another dozen lines of code, then an end message.

Not only that, we can then run a steganography thing on it so you can't tell the difference between it and some normal communication. Inspired by Fluffy Thoughts, which I think is somebody communicating in this way, I've been tinkering around with tools that pull a load of text from a document and put it back together in almost-coherent English. What I'm hoping is that I can make a way of encoding encrypted messages in the YouTube comments section or in the Daily Mail comments thread in a way that makes them indistinguishable from standard incoherent bigotry.

What all governments have failed to grasp as yet is that short of shutting down the internet there is absolutely no way for them to stop hidden communication. There are two many highly motivated and clever people of an activist mindset willing to churn out tools that will make it easy for Joe public to hide their communication.

While the governments undoubtedly have clever people on their own side it takes a lot more to decrypt a message or even recognise it is an encrypted message than it does to encrypt it in the first place. This is one arms race the governments cannot win and the more they try the more they will drive perfectly innocent individuals to use such method. The more encrypted messages they face the more they will struggle and the more the communications of interest will be buried in the chaff of non interesting but nevertheless encrypted messages

JonathanD

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Of course we might be being unfair to Labour. Perhaps they've spent the last year doing some really innovative, blue-sky, bottom-up thinking, and they've finally come up with a game-changer for raising revenue without tax increases: Auction gun licences to drug-dealers.

I did post a link to this the other day:

http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/reports---correspondence/current-reviews/range-of-prices-statistics.html

No one commented.

Key recommendation: "Taxes, benefits and regulated prices should not be linked to the RPI."

Do we know if that change would actually improve the Governments finances? I get the impression Osborne has already tweaked most numbers so that anything that raises money for the Government goes up by RPI and anything that the Government pays out goes up by CPI or a lower fixed amount (although after today's news, a 1% public pay offering is suddenly a inflation busting payrise)

Casino_Royale

On that uniform swing based on Ashcroft, a net loss of 20 seats to Labour is probably the limit at which the Tories can stay in government. Couple that with 10 or so gains from the Lib Dems, and Cameron would drop out at about 295 seats, maybe a couple more, which is very close to the JackW forecast and my view as well.

It may be that Ashcroft is an 'outlier' now, but may actually be forecasting the final result quite well by chance.

Pulpstar

GCHQ is monitoring snapchat ?!

Intelligence with nobs on.

Plato

Honestly, it's risible - anyone who read The Times comments yesterday about the EuroSceptics Are A Threat To National Security knows that EdM is an epic loser.

After the first 150 WTF comments - I saw a single one claiming he was right. Rarely does a quote get such opprobrium.

Mr Leslie is clearly playing for the Darwin Award here - Political category. I remember when Tony was a WMD of the soundbite sort - Labour have totally lost the plot.

Attempting to weaponise the NHS and Charlie Hedbo... what are they thinking of? And now gun licences? It's astonishing. I hope they carry on in the same vein.

Scott_P said:

TheWatcher said:

£20 million isn't even a rounding error.

@CCHQPress: .@chriswoodlrps @ChrisLeslieMP will raise 0.0007% of current deficit - & they've already committed to spending this money elsewhere #chaos

TheWatcher

OldKingCole said:

TheWatcher said:

taffys said:

Ah, Labour have at last found a demographic which they can tax 'till the pips squeak without losing a single vote.

You might be surprised by how many 'working class' voters shoot.

They might as well tax fishing rods next.

Shooting, or at least beating for shooting very popular weekend "nice little earner" round here. No, I don't know if they declare it and I'm not daft enough to ask.
Think it's "just" tips, actually

Someone metropolitan spad at LabHQ thought 'Shooting=Toff', and has blown their foot off.

Plato

To ape @SeanT - it's buttplug economics.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Of course we might be being unfair to Labour. Perhaps they've spent the last year doing some really innovative, blue-sky, bottom-up thinking, and they've finally come up with a game-changer for raising revenue without tax increases: Auction gun licences to drug-dealers.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Socrates, cannot see that happening, regardless of the numbers. If it did, the blues would give up the Home Office rather than the Treasury.

TheScreamingEagles

OldKingCole said:

TheWatcher said:

taffys said:

Ah, Labour have at last found a demographic which they can tax 'till the pips squeak without losing a single vote.

You might be surprised by how many 'working class' voters shoot.

They might as well tax fishing rods next.

Shooting, or at least beating for shooting very popular weekend "nice little earner" round here. No, I don't know if they declare it and I'm not daft enough to ask.
Think it's "just" tips, actually

You're from Essex?

Perhaps they could combine it with Kerry Smith's peasant shoot and it could raise squillions?

foxinsoxuk

SandyRentool said:

@Indigo - farmers voting Labour? Now that I'd like to see!

In am told that there is a Cheshire farmer that does!

AlastairMeeks

JonathanD said:

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Of course we might be being unfair to Labour. Perhaps they've spent the last year doing some really innovative, blue-sky, bottom-up thinking, and they've finally come up with a game-changer for raising revenue without tax increases: Auction gun licences to drug-dealers.

I did post a link to this the other day:

http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/reports---correspondence/current-reviews/range-of-prices-statistics.html

No one commented.

Key recommendation: "Taxes, benefits and regulated prices should not be linked to the RPI."

Do we know if that change would actually improve the Governments finances? I get the impression Osborne has already tweaked most numbers so that anything that raises money for the Government goes up by RPI and anything that the Government pays out goes up by CPI or a lower fixed amount (although after today's news, a 1% public pay offering is suddenly a inflation busting payrise)

I'm sure that HMG could implement tax band rises in line with CPI rather than RPI, and defer making switches that cost money until public finances were under less of a strain (insert quote about "tough decisions" and "difficult times" and "we're all in this together" etc).

Plato

IIRC - the average farming income bar the big conglomerates is about £7500pa. My neighbour earned £8k in 2010. He works 16hrs a day 6 by 7 in all weathers.

I find the weird snobbery about farming to be really weird. He was almost killed off by F&M when he couldn't move his sheep 8ft across a lane and many died. Their pelts couldn't be sold as the Wool Marketing Board wouldn't allow it, yet the market was flooded with Russian ones. And on and on and on.

Anyone commenting on farming who hasn't lived cheek by jowl really needs to shut up until they hear first hand accounts rather than assume they're all Brian Alridge.

foxinsoxuk said:

SandyRentool said:

@Indigo - farmers voting Labour? Now that I'd like to see!

In am told that there is a Cheshire farmer that does!

Morris_Dancer

Incidentally, to get rid of that stupid Chrome button, use the flags (chrome://flags), find the new avatar option and disable it [on closing and reopening the button will be gone].

The gun licences issue is just weird. It'd be like if someone said "Why should I buy this book?" and the writer said "The font is very nice."

Plato

I've recently bought a Kindle and downloaded Call Of The Wild by Jack London for free - what are your titles called - will give them a try.

I still prefer paper, but sure I can get used to the electronic format with a bit of willpower.

Morris_Dancer said:

Incidentally, to get rid of that stupid Chrome button, use the flags (chrome://flags), find the new avatar option and disable it [on closing and reopening the button will be gone].

The gun licences issue is just weird. It'd be like if someone said "Why should I buy this book?" and the writer said "The font is very nice."

MikeK

http://www.ukip.org/what_planet_is_ed_miliband_on

Ed Miliband claimed quitting the European Union would make Britain more vulnerable to terrorist attacks.

Yeh? Tell that to Paris.

MikeK

The Rebel Yell ‏@Rebel_Rock_On 56m56 minutes ago
Angela Merkel wants #PEGIDA demos stopped. In Paris she marched in defence of free speech.

Luckyguy1983

Must read report here on the perpetrators of the Charlie Hebdo massacre. Known associates of notorious Al Qaeda Militant, arrested in 2005 for attempting to join militants in Iraq, implicated in another plot in 2010, went to Yemen for weapons training with Al Qaeda in 2011, fought in Syria 6 months ago.
http://nsnbc.me/2015/01/12/opps-paris-attackers-funded-pentagon-dinner-guest/

And the answer to this is aparently mass snooping on everyone's emails.

Morris_Dancer

Miss Plato, huzzah!

All are under the name Thaddeus White:
Bane of Souls and Journey to Altmortis are fantasy set in the same world
Sir Edric's Temple is a fantasy-comedy [you'll be able to tell almost immediately, I think, if it's your type of thing of not]

Hope you enjoy them

Speaking of writing, my first short story of 2015 will be out in a couple of days [free-to-read].

Scott_P

Osborne says Labour are running the "Basil Fawlty" deficit reduction plan...

"Don't mention the Deficit!"

Plato

Ha! Will try them out. Since I enjoy your posts and was fond of Elric - I think we could be onto a winner here.

Tweet me your short story linky when it's up.

Morris_Dancer said:

Miss Plato, huzzah!

All are under the name Thaddeus White:
Bane of Souls and Journey to Altmortis are fantasy set in the same world
Sir Edric's Temple is a fantasy-comedy [you'll be able to tell almost immediately, I think, if it's your type of thing of not]

Hope you enjoy them

Speaking of writing, my first short story of 2015 will be out in a couple of days.

RobD

Morris_Dancer said:

Incidentally, to get rid of that stupid Chrome button, use the flags (chrome://flags), find the new avatar option and disable it [on closing and reopening the button will be gone].

The gun licences issue is just weird. It'd be like if someone said "Why should I buy this book?" and the writer said "The font is very nice."

Thanks for that. Saw it and was irked immediately. Don;t see why there isn't an easy option to disable it given that I am the only user of my laptop (and other users would have other profiles anyway.. so kind of a moot point!!)

Casino_Royale

Madness to sell Conservatives at 280. They'd have to lose at least 34 seats to Labour (assuming minimum of 9 Lib Dem gains) to make that happen.

In effect: their 40:40 strategy to be a total failure. I don't think it's value but it's not my money.

Plato

LOL *snort*

Scott_P said:

Osborne says Labour are running the "Basil Fawlty" deficit reduction plan...

"Don't mention the Deficit!"

Scott_P

Oh dear. Ed Balls apparently can't add up to 3...

welshowl

antifrank said:

JonathanD said:

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Of course we might be being unfair to Labour. Perhaps they've spent the last year doing some really innovative, blue-sky, bottom-up thinking, and they've finally come up with a game-changer for raising revenue without tax increases: Auction gun licences to drug-dealers.

I did post a link to this the other day:

http://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/reports---correspondence/current-reviews/range-of-prices-statistics.html

No one commented.

Key recommendation: "Taxes, benefits and regulated prices should not be linked to the RPI."

Do we know if that change would actually improve the Governments finances? I get the impression Osborne has already tweaked most numbers so that anything that raises money for the Government goes up by RPI and anything that the Government pays out goes up by CPI or a lower fixed amount (although after today's news, a 1% public pay offering is suddenly a inflation busting payrise)

I'm sure that HMG could implement tax band rises in line with CPI rather than RPI, and defer making switches that cost money until public finances were under less of a strain (insert quote about "tough decisions" and "difficult times" and "we're all in this together" etc).

I think it's about two billion a year we could save by switching Gilt payments from RPI to CPI but that was rejected a couple of years ago despite acknowledgement that RPI was a fundamentally mathematically flawed calculation (don't ask me how the maths was way above my pay grade), but it was rejected essentially on the grounds of "continuity" (ie it would look a bit like a mini default to those who had bought gilts). As an inevitable result pension valuations and liabilities have all had to remain in RPI too.

Probably the best thing would be to start issuing CPI linked gilts to phase them in, but again that would only work if you let pension schemes calculate in CPI not RPI otherwise there'd be precious little demand for CPI Gilts.

Still it'd save more than taxing the odd shotgun licence I suppose.

Plato

Speaking of feeling singled out - not in a good way, I've just discovered that I'm now a 250 Tesco Direct reviewer...

Given that they have millions of customers - I really need to check out if my Clubcard Points are adding up adequately...

RobD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Incidentally, to get rid of that stupid Chrome button, use the flags (chrome://flags), find the new avatar option and disable it [on closing and reopening the button will be gone].

The gun licences issue is just weird. It'd be like if someone said "Why should I buy this book?" and the writer said "The font is very nice."

Thanks for that. Saw it and was irked immediately. Don;t see why there isn't an easy option to disable it given that I am the only user of my laptop (and other users would have other profiles anyway.. so kind of a moot point!!)

Bond_James_Bond

So will there be two GEs this year? If we end up in a place where neither party can form a government even with the LDs, it's surely minority for 6 months, then another GE in November?

Scott_P

@JohnRentoul: Osborne now teaching Balls how to count on "his piano fingers: 1, 2, 3."

SandyRentool

Casino_Royale said:

Madness to sell Conservatives at 280. They'd have to lose at least 34 seats to Labour (assuming minimum of 9 Lib Dem gains) to make that happen.

In effect: their 40:40 strategy to be a total failure. I don't think it's value but it's not my money.

What about Con losses to UKIP? Could knock another 5 from their total.

Morris_Dancer

Will do, Miss Plato

Mr. D, aye. Reminds me of a cartoon I made once about 'upgrades'. A pair of idiots remove the wheels from a man's cart and replace them with square wheels, then charge him £20 for the privilege.

Anyway, Cameron's proposal is cretinous and unworkable. Politicians seem intent on ruining the internet for normal people through ignorant and ill-conceived idiocy.