How many polls have we had from 2010 to now on overall GE btw ?
One or two of the polls in that time will have been 3+ SD outliers.
From YouGov alone, at the rate of five polls per week, there will have been more than 1,000 opinion polls. Out of 1000 opinion polls you would expect nearly 3 that had an error of 3+ standard deviations.
This sort of thing might form the basis for a little game during the election campaign. We could try to identify the least accurate opinion poll in the period from the formal start of the election campaign to polling day itself.
How would you measure which is the least accurate? Each poll is a snapshot, not a prediction.
Blood is very tricky. Try Vanish Oxy spray or granules - they kill red wine stains and blood on limestone which is a difficult medium to fix.
Generally speaking - a very powerful biological washing powder will fix almost anything - unless it dissolves the medium first.
Never use dishwasher powder on anything natural - it will eat it in hours. I once tried to use it to clean hard paint off brushes and it ate the bristles. It's great drain cleaner though.
PS Anyone with a pet grease issue - like cats or dogs rubbing their coats on the wall or doorways - use Sugar Soap. Available in all B&Qs and everywhere else. It solves almost every pet problem.
30yrs at this has made me a bit of an expert of what works. Happy to take any questions here or on Twitter at @platosays.
How do you remove horse blood from a duvet? Asking for a, uh, friend.
I sense a business opportunity - May I suggest you e-mail Labour PPC's in the marginals as there'll be plenty of blood on the carpets come May 8th !!
I reckon - and this is where I'm completely lacking in science - that Gordon Brown's speech (after the debates) at some church or cathedral somewhere up north, swung a lot of votes back Labour's way. It was a proper tub-thumper of a speech to the faithful. Full of his passion for the under-privileged and unashamed class-warrior stuff. Dripping with fear of what the Tories will do to the poor. The stuff he was really good at. I remember thinking, wow, if he did more of this he'd win more seats because people believe it. And I say this as someone who hugely disliked Brown.
I'v never voted Labour and not a fan of Brown but in my view he handily won the third debate and that speech at the Citizens UK event was a barn stormer designed to invigorate the Labour faithful
Blood is very tricky. Try Vanish Oxy spray or granules - they kill red wine stains and blood on limestone which is a difficult medium to fix.
Generally speaking - a very powerful biological washing powder will fix almost anything - unless it dissolves the medium first.
Never use dishwasher powder on anything natural - it will eat it in hours. I once tried to use it to clean hard paint off brushes and it ate the bristles. It's great drain cleaner though.
PS Anyone with a pet grease issue - like cats or dogs rubbing their coats on the wall or doorways - use Sugar Soap. Available in all B&Qs and everywhere else. It solves almost every pet problem.
30yrs at this has made me a bit of an expert of what works. Happy to take any questions here or on Twitter at @platosays.
How do you remove horse blood from a duvet? Asking for a, uh, friend.
I sense a business opportunity - May I suggest you e-mail Labour PPC's in the marginals as there'll be plenty of blood on the carpets come May 8th !!
I wonder which constituencies Lord Ashcroft is going for in Scotland. If I were him, I'd like to see polling in the following:
Aberdeen North Ayrshire North & Arran Dunbartonshire East Edinburgh North & Leith Edinburgh West Glasgow North Glasgow East Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey Kilmarnock & Loudoun Stirling
That would I hope give us some idea of how big the SNP surge was and where it was taking place.
"Why I'm worried by the sight of a Pro-Government Demonstration
I have been on a lot of demonstrations in my life. I greatly regret having taken part in some of them – especially the Nuclear Disarmament marches of the 1960s. I still think I was right to go on some of the others, against racial prejudice, and in protest at the shooting of innocent British subjects in Londonderry in 1972.
But I don’t believe I’ve ever been on a pro-government march. And I am filled with a feeling of strange puzzlement over the rather weird events in Paris on Sunday. What were they demonstrating for? I’ll come to that.
I’ll be told ‘it was for freedom, democracy, free expression’.
Are you sure? (See below) But even if that's actually true, these are self-evident virtues. Nobody (even people who secretly had doubts about free speech and democracy, as many do in fact, see below) would demonstrate against them.
And no doubt I’ll also be told it was ‘against terrorism and murder’.
Once again, who would say he was for such things? The people who favour them have other ways of showing their feelings.
All you need to do is subject such talk to the late Roy Jenkins’s rather neat test of empty banality. Just ask this question: Could anyone conceivably have said the opposite? If not, then nothing of any significance has been said.
We are here, once again, in the rainbow-hued, furry-bunny-and tweety-bird-infested land of Tom Lehrer’s wonderful little satirical song from 1965, called ‘The Folk Song Army’ :
Thus: ‘We are the Folk Song Army. Every one of us cares. We all hate poverty, war, and injustice, Unlike the rest of you squares.’"
Actually it was to do with the closure of the local steelworks - the populace had seen Labour splash out millions to save Rover 'in a marginal seat' and therefore expected the same in Redcar.
But Redcar wasn't a Labour marginal (at least no then) - so labour didn't save the plant.
I wonder which constituencies Lord Ashcroft is going for in Scotland. If I were him, I'd like to see polling in the following:
Aberdeen North Ayrshire North & Arran Dunbartonshire East Edinburgh North & Leith Edinburgh West Glasgow North Glasgow East Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey Kilmarnock & Loudoun Stirling
That would I hope give us some idea of how big the SNP surge was and where it was taking place.
An excellent list to test out the SNP surge in practice. However, if I was doing such polling I'd keep Dunbartonshire East polling secret and bet on the info. I'd also throw in Dundee West on the basis that it should be going bright yellow if you believe in thew power of Yes so if it isn't going strongly SNP then that would indicate something. Like when the Western Isle came back No at the referendum I knew there was no point waiting for any more results it was all done and dusted.
PS Anyone with a pet grease issue - like cats or dogs rubbing their coats on the wall or doorways - use Sugar Soap. Available in all B&Qs and everywhere else. It solves almost every pet problem.
30yrs at this has made me a bit of an expert of what works. Happy to take any questions here or on Twitter at @platosays.
How do you remove horse blood from a duvet? Asking for a, uh, friend.
PS Anyone with a pet grease issue - like cats or dogs rubbing their coats on the wall or doorways - use Sugar Soap. Available in all B&Qs and everywhere else. It solves almost every pet problem.
30yrs at this has made me a bit of an expert of what works. Happy to take any questions here or on Twitter at @platosays.
How do you remove horse blood from a duvet? Asking for a, uh, friend.
Actually it was to do with the closure of the local steelworks - the populace had seen Labour splash out millions to save Rover 'in a marginal seat' and therefore expected the same in Redcar.
But Redcar wasn't a Labour marginal (at least no then) - so labour didn't save the plant.
All that and the bullying led to a 22% swing, against Vera and her incontinent dog.
"It would be interesting to discover what Farage thought about the Salman Rushdie affair. I fancy he would have failed that test. I know many of his supporters would have. They would have said – as far too many on the right did at the time – that Rushdie had it coming. That this Paki (sic) scribbler was lucky to be in Britain at all and even more fortunate to be protected by the officers of a state he was happy to insult."
"It would be interesting to discover what Farage thought about the Salman Rushdie affair. I fancy he would have failed that test. I know many of his supporters would have. They would have said – as far too many on the right did at the time – that Rushdie had it coming. That this Paki (sic) scribbler was lucky to be in Britain at all and even more fortunate to be protected by the officers of a state he was happy to insult."
Farage to release book ahead of election Nigel Farage is to release a book before the general election, it has been announced.
‘The Purple Revolution’ will detail the “untold story of the journey Ukip has travelled” under Mr Farage’s leadership, Biteback Publishing says.
It will come out on 5 March, ahead of May’s vote and will also set out “what Ukip would be prepared to accept in the event of a hung parliament”. http://www.politicshome.com/
"It would be interesting to discover what Farage thought about the Salman Rushdie affair. I fancy he would have failed that test. I know many of his supporters would have. They would have said – as far too many on the right did at the time – that Rushdie had it coming. That this Paki (sic) scribbler was lucky to be in Britain at all and even more fortunate to be protected by the officers of a state he was happy to insult."
I reckon he might have to say "Special's off.. .I didn't know how to cook it"
He falls into the age old trap of asking questions, answering them himself, and drawing conclusions from his own answers... The quote you provide is the best example of how poor an article it is
"It would be interesting to discover what Farage thought about the Salman Rushdie affair. I fancy he would have failed that test. I know many of his supporters would have. They would have said – as far too many on the right did at the time – that Rushdie had it coming. That this Paki (sic) scribbler was lucky to be in Britain at all and even more fortunate to be protected by the officers of a state he was happy to insult."
The comments are tediously predictable, as you might imagine. Then again, it's hard to imagine a more obvious piece of kipper-trolling click-bait.
"It would be interesting to discover what Farage thought about the Salman Rushdie affair. I fancy he would have failed that test.
That is by far the worst critique of Farage I have ever read. Goodness knows how it got past the Speccie's editors.
Emotional, illogical, badly structured, personally insulting and taking issue (badly) with statements Farage has never made, and political positions he has never adopted.
"It would be interesting to discover what Farage thought about the Salman Rushdie affair. I fancy he would have failed that test. I know many of his supporters would have. They would have said – as far too many on the right did at the time – that Rushdie had it coming. That this Paki (sic) scribbler was lucky to be in Britain at all and even more fortunate to be protected by the officers of a state he was happy to insult."
Rubbish again from Massie on anything re Farage or UKIP. Massie makes it up as he goes along.
How many polls have we had from 2010 to now on overall GE btw ?
One or two of the polls in that time will have been 3+ SD outliers.
From YouGov alone, at the rate of five polls per week, there will have been more than 1,000 opinion polls. Out of 1000 opinion polls you would expect nearly 3 that had an error of 3+ standard deviations.
This sort of thing might form the basis for a little game during the election campaign. We could try to identify the least accurate opinion poll in the period from the formal start of the election campaign to polling day itself.
How would you measure which is the least accurate? Each poll is a snapshot, not a prediction.
Obviously you would have to make the assumption that the true underlying state of the Nation's Opinion was unmoved by the theatre of the election campaign.
Farage to release book ahead of election Nigel Farage is to release a book before the general election, it has been announced.
‘The Purple Revolution’ will detail the “untold story of the journey Ukip has travelled” under Mr Farage’s leadership, Biteback Publishing says.
It will come out on 5 March, ahead of May’s vote and will also set out “what Ukip would be prepared to accept in the event of a hung parliament”. http://www.politicshome.com/
Normally* politicians wait until after losing an election to publish a book and cash in. Has Farage been too busy with this book to do the hard yards to win a Westminster seat? Shades of flying about in a plane on polling day, perhaps.
* Brown is the obvious exception, as he was in so many ways.
I wonder which constituencies Lord Ashcroft is going for in Scotland. If I were him, I'd like to see polling in the following:
Aberdeen North Ayrshire North & Arran Dunbartonshire East Edinburgh North & Leith Edinburgh West Glasgow North Glasgow East Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey Kilmarnock & Loudoun Stirling
That would I hope give us some idea of how big the SNP surge was and where it was taking place.
"It would be interesting to discover what Farage thought about the Salman Rushdie affair. I fancy he would have failed that test. I know many of his supporters would have. They would have said – as far too many on the right did at the time – that Rushdie had it coming. That this Paki (sic) scribbler was lucky to be in Britain at all and even more fortunate to be protected by the officers of a state he was happy to insult."
That's just a rant. Massie is fast approaching Matthew Parris levels of emotional hyperbole and irrationality when it comes to UKIP.
The independent inquiry set up by Eric Pickles, and led by Louise Casey, to examine Rotherham council's governance, services for children and young people, and taxi and private hire licensing, was due to report by the end of November 2014. Has it reported yet?
I can't find any sign of it.
I don't want to re-open the discussion; I'm just curious.
The independent inquiry set up by Eric Pickles, and led by Louise Casey, to examine Rotherham council's governance, services for children and young people, and taxi and private hire licensing, was due to report by the end of November 2014. Has it reported yet?
I can't find any sign of it.
I don't want to re-open the discussion; I'm just curious.
If I recall an extension was granted until this month.
"It would be interesting to discover what Farage thought about the Salman Rushdie affair. I fancy he would have failed that test. I know many of his supporters would have. They would have said – as far too many on the right did at the time – that Rushdie had it coming. That this Paki (sic) scribbler was lucky to be in Britain at all and even more fortunate to be protected by the officers of a state he was happy to insult."
I reckon he might have to say "Special's off.. .I didn't know how to cook it"
He falls into the age old trap of asking questions, answering them himself, and drawing conclusions from his own answers... The quote you provide is the best example of how poor an article it is
It also shows how low and cheap Spectator editors have become.
The shambles in Redcar CLP was covered in the local bit of the Sunday Politics. This sort of nonsense makes me despair.
Vote Lib Dem or you are encouraging bullying.
But Ian Swales is so confident of defeat that he isn't bothering to stand!
Yeah all the polling shows the Lib Dems in Redcar are going to thrashed like a dominatrix's slave.
Quite the image. Yeah, in such a party heartland people don't care about local party shambles I suspect, the only reason the Parliamentary vote collapsed for Labour was punishment for the job losses there, it would have returned to form even without the LDs joining up with the Tories I suspect.
Farage's liking Prince makes me wonder how many Prince lyrics Farage has listened to -- the stuff about incest ("My sister never made love to anyone else but me") or copulating inside cars?
The irony of him pushing this after a terrorist attack where we already knew of the suspects via existing methods is absurd. He's using a tragedy to expand government power, despite the proposals being unrelated to this attack.
Farage to release book ahead of election Nigel Farage is to release a book before the general election, it has been announced.
‘The Purple Revolution’ will detail the “untold story of the journey Ukip has travelled” under Mr Farage’s leadership, Biteback Publishing says.
It will come out on 5 March, ahead of May’s vote and will also set out “what Ukip would be prepared to accept in the event of a hung parliament”. http://www.politicshome.com/
Normally* politicians wait until after losing an election to publish a book and cash in. Has Farage been too busy with this book to do the hard yards to win a Westminster seat? Shades of flying about in a plane on polling day, perhaps.
* Brown is the obvious exception, as he was in so many ways.
Or maybe he's writing a book as part of the election campaign as a way to get media attention? Surely that wasn't too hard to figure out?
I wonder which constituencies Lord Ashcroft is going for in Scotland. If I were him, I'd like to see polling in the following:
Aberdeen North Ayrshire North & Arran Dunbartonshire East Edinburgh North & Leith Edinburgh West Glasgow North Glasgow East Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey Kilmarnock & Loudoun Stirling
That would I hope give us some idea of how big the SNP surge was and where it was taking place.
Actually, thinking aout this a bit more I'd want a poll of Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk. Various results It would say a lot about the SNP, the Lib Dems, and the Conservatives.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=6BA2Jz7xIXw
My most recent occupant spends her life wiping her litter tray feet on my bed clothes. Anything I can do to fix this will be a boon!
http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/.premium-1.636901
Aberdeen North
Ayrshire North & Arran
Dunbartonshire East
Edinburgh North & Leith
Edinburgh West
Glasgow North
Glasgow East
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
Kilmarnock & Loudoun
Stirling
That would I hope give us some idea of how big the SNP surge was and where it was taking place.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tees-30794143
Bullying culture of local Labour Party.
I have been on a lot of demonstrations in my life. I greatly regret having taken part in some of them – especially the Nuclear Disarmament marches of the 1960s. I still think I was right to go on some of the others, against racial prejudice, and in protest at the shooting of innocent British subjects in Londonderry in 1972.
But I don’t believe I’ve ever been on a pro-government march. And I am filled with a feeling of strange puzzlement over the rather weird events in Paris on Sunday. What were they demonstrating for? I’ll come to that.
I’ll be told ‘it was for freedom, democracy, free expression’.
Are you sure? (See below) But even if that's actually true, these are self-evident virtues. Nobody (even people who secretly had doubts about free speech and democracy, as many do in fact, see below) would demonstrate against them.
And no doubt I’ll also be told it was ‘against terrorism and murder’.
Once again, who would say he was for such things? The people who favour them have other ways of showing their feelings.
All you need to do is subject such talk to the late Roy Jenkins’s rather neat test of empty banality. Just ask this question: Could anyone conceivably have said the opposite? If not, then nothing of any significance has been said.
We are here, once again, in the rainbow-hued, furry-bunny-and tweety-bird-infested land of Tom Lehrer’s wonderful little satirical song from 1965, called ‘The Folk Song Army’ :
Thus:
‘We are the Folk Song Army.
Every one of us cares.
We all hate poverty, war, and injustice,
Unlike the rest of you squares.’"
http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/
So 2,000 in this parliament
But Redcar wasn't a Labour marginal (at least no then) - so labour didn't save the plant.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1236839/Solicitor-General-Vera-Baird-embroiled-row-failing-pick-dogs-mess-railway-station.html
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/01/nigel-farage-a-two-bit-demagogue-and-believer-in-lazy-root-causes/
"It would be interesting to discover what Farage thought about the Salman Rushdie affair. I fancy he would have failed that test. I know many of his supporters would have. They would have said – as far too many on the right did at the time – that Rushdie had it coming. That this Paki (sic) scribbler was lucky to be in Britain at all and even more fortunate to be protected by the officers of a state he was happy to insult."
Farage to release book ahead of election
Nigel Farage is to release a book before the general election, it has been announced.
‘The Purple Revolution’ will detail the “untold story of the journey Ukip has travelled” under Mr Farage’s leadership, Biteback Publishing says.
It will come out on 5 March, ahead of May’s vote and will also set out “what Ukip would be prepared to accept in the event of a hung parliament”. http://www.politicshome.com/
He falls into the age old trap of asking questions, answering them himself, and drawing conclusions from his own answers... The quote you provide is the best example of how poor an article it is
http://www.channel4.com/programmes/angry-white-and-proud
That is by far the worst critique of Farage I have ever read. Goodness knows how it got past the Speccie's editors.
Emotional, illogical, badly structured, personally insulting and taking issue (badly) with statements Farage has never made, and political positions he has never adopted.
Quite simply it is a piece of sh8t.
That article, if it even deserves that term, reads like it was written at 2am by someone who was completely p8ssed.
Anotherimmigrantholenyohead
I feel for EU
Let's Go Crazy
* Brown is the obvious exception, as he was in so many ways.
"I could never take the place of yer man"
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dEpmY19JSTdHWm02WUZRWE1NY2xraFE&usp=drive_web#gid=0
The independent inquiry set up by Eric Pickles, and led by Louise Casey, to examine Rotherham council's governance, services for children and young people, and taxi and private hire licensing, was due to report by the end of November 2014. Has it reported yet?
I can't find any sign of it.
I don't want to re-open the discussion; I'm just curious.
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Edit. Yeah it should be out this Friday
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/380762/141127_PR_letter_to_LC_deadline_extention.pdf
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/steerpike/2015/01/flick-drummond/
Flick of the Gestapo answers the phone with
"Flick, The Gestapo [pause], no I said FLICK the Gestapo"
Thanks, much appreciated. I thought someone on here would know.
It's now January 16th.
Can't be worse than the current MP.
also known as the "Love Symbol"
http://www.oxfordtimes.co.uk/news/opinions/graymatter/8726435.Vicar_s_Diana_Dors_clanger_at_the_church_fete/?ref=ms
Balloch, Cockburn and Cummings.
He said to pronunce as they sound and I should remember Scots take great offence if you pronunce their family names wrong.
Few people will think much of a minor typographical difference between the Conservative candidates for Portsmouth South and Portsmouth North.
I'll get my coat.....
https://i.imgur.com/BpOtRCf.jpg
The irony of him pushing this after a terrorist attack where we already knew of the suspects via existing methods is absurd. He's using a tragedy to expand government power, despite the proposals being unrelated to this attack.
Which will amuse you.